They Are Missing One Crucial Thing
A report from the Sun Sentinel in Florida. “More South Florida home sellers are cutting their asking prices — another sign that the housing fireworks of the past have faded and buyers are starting to push back. Douglas Rill, of Century 21 America’s Choice in West Palm Beach, recalled a meeting he had this year with the seller of a two-bedroom condo at CityPlace. The $630,000 listing with another agent had expired, and she wanted Rill to start marketing the home for sale. Rill said he told her it wasn’t worth anything close to what she was asking and persuaded her to lower the price to $599,000.”
“Two more price reductions brought the listing down to $560,000 before she received an offer of $499,000, Rill said. She eventually closed the deal at $509,000. ‘I don’t think the market is falling, but sellers are getting ahead of themselves a little bit,’ Rill said.”
“Annual price increases of more than 20 percent were common in 2013 and 2014, when the market was recovering from the six-year bust. However, sales and price gains have slowed since then. In September, single-family home sales across the tricounty region dropped compared with a year ago, Realtor board data show. Annual price increases ranged from 10 to 12 percent in the three counties.”
“Sam Reng listed his four-bedroom Miramar home in May for $384,900. Showings increased with each of his three price cuts, and he finally found a buyer at $340,000. The deal closed in September. ‘It was really frustrating,’ said Reng, 29. ‘I felt [$384,900] was a fair price, and I wasn’t looking to price-gouge anybody. But my kitchen was outdated. If I had a brand-new kitchen and kept it at the original price, I’m sure there would have been a lot more interest.’”
“Kevin Spina, a Keyes agent in Palm Beach Gardens, said a home in North Palm Beach recently came on the market for more than $800,000, based on two sales nearby. But the home was overpriced because it had the original roof and floors and no pool, he said. After the seller had knocked roughly $200,000 off the price, Spina’s client pounced, winning a bidding war at $605,000. Spina and other agents say sellers who ask too much for their homes run the risk that the listings will sit on the market and become stale.”
“‘If you’re not getting offers, it’s because of price,’ Spina said.”
From New Jersey Advanced Media. “The owners of these luxury estates in New Jersey may enjoy their private chipping greens, full basketball courts, saltwater pools, wine-tasting grottos, and his and her, well, everythings. But they are missing one crucial thing: A buyer. Despite top-of-the-line finishes, every imaginable amenity and, for the most part, privacy and space, these 11 homes have lingered on the luxury housing market for years, despite price cuts of at least 25 percent (and in some cases much more).”
“Though the top two homes on the list haven’t changed — Alpine’s Stone Mansion, believed to the be the priciest home ever on the market in New Jersey, is number one — there are five new entries in this year’s list. They include, at number 3, a 24-room Saddle River mansion that was initially listed for $19 million and now can be had for $12.9 million (it wasn’t on the market when we developed last year’s ranking), and at number 5, the Saddle River home of singer Mary J. Blige, who chopped $1 million from her asking price in September. (Got $9.9 million?)”
“So what happened to the five homes that fell off last year’s list? Hidden Acres, a 15,000-square-foot home on 5.5 acres in Rumson that was number 10, is still on the market, its price trimmed further to $5.5 million. The 26-acre Pickle Brook Farm in Far Halls, with its lodge-style main house with views over Ravine Lake, was listed for $14.5 million in 2010 and is now down to $3.9 million. Only one sold: A 10,000-square-foot bayfront home in Avalon that had also been marketed at a vacation rental. It came on the market in 2010 for $11.9 million, dropped to $7.99 million and sold for $6.8 million in September.”
The Real Deal on New York. “Commander-in-chop? One of the biggest price cuts in the over $10-million residential market last week was at 1 Central Park West, or Trump International Hotel and Tower, which is managed by Donald Trump’s company, the Trump Organization. Apartment 47BC was reduced from $40 million to $34.5 million last week, a markdown of 14 percent.”
“It certainly wasn’t the only luxury pad to be slashed last week. Data provided to The Real Deal by StreetEasy for the period Oct. 31 through Nov. 4 show several high-end properties have been reduced by millions of dollars, as sellers adjust to waning demand for luxury properties. This six-bedroom, five-bathroom townhouse in Lenox Hill was first listed in May for $28.5 million. But last week, $4 million was shaved off the asking price.”
“This apartment at Trump International Hotel and Tower spans 6,300 square feet. It first entered the market for $40 million in May, but was reduced by 14 percent last week. The Howard Margolis Group at Douglas Elliman has the listing. ‘The sellers wanted to test the market at the higher price,’ Howard Margolis told The Real Deal. ‘They’ve now asked us to adjust the price of the apartment to make it more competitive.’”
Change da coming?
New York Times publisher vows to ‘rededicate’ paper to reporting honestly
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/12/new-york-times-publisher-vows-to-rededicate-itself-to-reporting-honestly.html
When you alienate 50%+ of your customer base…
You don’t make money.
When you destroy your credibility, your subscribers get fed up with paying for lies and corporatist-neocon-DNC propaganda and ditch their subscriptions.
Pro tip: How to tell when something is a lie: if it was reported by the NYT.
Including this: New York Times publisher vows to ‘rededicate’ paper to reporting honestly
Virtually everything progressives say publicly is a lie - we found that out from wikileaks about Clinton and her cronies, but we already saw that from Obama - if you like your healthcare, you can keep it, I will lower costs 2500/yr, I will have the most transparent administration ever, I support the 2nd amendment, etc.
Now the progressives say:
- they are for the peaceful transition of power, while funding riots and creating petitions to stop that transition
- that they promise to be less biased in their reporting, after getting caught in their web of lies
- that they are for democracy, as long as their candidate wins
- that they are for free speech, as long as they agree with it
- they blame law enforcement (FBI) for investigating their criminality as the reason they didnt win an election
I cant imagine what damage to free speech would have occurred under a Hillary regime. With Trump getting elected I see all over the net people coming out in support, as if the gag has been removed and they are finally free to speak their minds.
Good example from a non Trump supporter:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wylLtpnT31w
Check the comments too, very interesting
Given that home prices are falling, it will be interesting to see whether the Fed and or federal government step in to prop them up again, as they did in the post-2004 period.
I see the obama appointed Fed raising rates as it will crush someone named not obama or clinton…
It won’t be raising rates that crushes, it is the lowering of them to crazy lows in the first place. The duration only makes the inevitable crush worse.
Dumb question of the day: Did the Fed/fedgov ever deliberately prop up housing prices at any point in the pre-2012 period?
There’s disagreement about that. But this should never happen:
‘Annual price increases of more than 20 percent were common in 2013 and 2014′
Apparently annual housing price increases in recent years topped 60% in some Chinese cities. Not to suggest this is a good model to follow…
‘The strong housing market continued in the third quarter, in Colorado in general and the Boulder Valley in particular. The latest statistics published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency rank Colorado as the third-fastest-appreciating state in the nation over the last year at an impressive 10.21 percent (compared with the national average of 5.61 percent). Boulder County is even more impressive, leading the entire nation for appreciation in the past year (14.72 percent) and since 1991 (329 percent). According to Veros Real Estate Solutions, Boulder County is projected to appreciate another 10.5 percent through Sept. 1, 2017, which places it as the No. 2 residential real estate market in the country.’
‘The biggest surprise on the single-family side has been the appreciation of homes in suburban mountains, which have enjoyed a 40.2 percent price appreciation from January through September, up from $490,372 to $687,696. It seems this price surge has not escaped current mountain-home owners, many of whom have decided that now may be the time to sell, resulting in a 21.6 percent jump in the total number of listing on the market there.’
“…which have enjoyed a 40.2 percent price appreciation from January through September, up from $490,372 to $687,696.”
You’re bringing back memories of our family trip to my sister’s in Denver during the post-2008 crash period. I can’t recall seeing so many For Sale signs anywhere else in the country as those I saw in front of every property we passed during our drive into the mountains.
“Dumb question of the day: Did the Fed/fedgov ever deliberately prop up housing prices at any point in the pre-2012 period?”
“There’s disagreement about that.”
I don’t understand this exchange. What are you guys talking about?
For one, when Greenspan co-wrote the mortgage equity withdrawal paper and became alarmed, he popped the bubble with interest rate increases. The current Fed is merely putting out low profile papers on commercial real estate and farmland bubbles.
I’m not sure what “propping up the market” means, but I find it curious that for pretty much every kind of “asset” you can imagine, you have to pay a capital gains tax if you make a profit on that asset when you sell it.
Except, for gains on your primary residence — that first $250K ($500K joint) profit if you live there for a couple years.
It always made me wonder — the government loves to tax anything and everything they can, but for some reason with housing, they are so nice to us in giving that wonderful tax-free profit for “owning” a house. (Which usually involves taking out a large debt-load.). Why?
I think if they wanted to prick the housing bubble, it could be done overnight — just get rid of that tax exclusion benefit.
Are you serious, Prof. Bear? Always Lower Interest Rate Policy (A-LIRP) has been the rule since 1982, and especially since Greens Became FREB chairman in 1987.
Yes, housing bubbles have been the policy since at least 1987. And that includes reflating after every bubble bursts.
“Commander-in-chop? One of the biggest price cuts in the over $10-million residential market last week was at 1 Central Park West, or Trump International Hotel and Tower, which is managed by Donald Trump’s company, the Trump Organization. Apartment 47BC was reduced from $40 million to $34.5 million last week, a markdown of 14 percent.”
It’s a promising sign that President Trump may help usher in a New Era of affordable housing.
Residents of the Trump Tower are going to have to make their way through a foul-smelling sea of Soros-sponsored riffraff every time they come and go from their abodes. Quality of life is going to suffer, as will the market value of those formerly prestigous addresses.
“Residents of the Trump Tower are going to have to make their way through a foul-smelling sea of Soros-sponsored riffraff every time they come and go from their abodes.”
For now. Later on, after the inauguration, change di come.
One way or another, Soros will be leaving the US.
Change di come?
The Financial Times
US Politics & Policy
Dimon approach signals Trump is eager to reconnect Washington and Wall St
The period of bashing banks appears to be drawing to a close
Wall Street reacted with shock and amusement to reports that Jamie Dimon had been approached by Donald Trump’s team
© Bloomberg
yesterday
Ben McLannahan in New York
After an election filled with rhetoric about big and brash bankers running amok on Wall Street, Donald Trump has turned to the biggest and the brashest of them all: Jamie Dimon, chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase.
The transition team of the president-elect called Mr Dimon on Wednesday night to sound him out about serving as Treasury secretary, according to a Reuters report that the FT has been unable to confirm.
…
If you guys think I’m going to moderate a political blog you’re going to be disappointed.
I was just pointing out that it looks like the new administration is heading for business as usual between DC and NYC, which seems contrary to the beliefs of most Trump supporters who post here.
You want to know the truth? I don’t know who Dimon is. I probably posted some stuff about him over the years but I don’t really care about wall street except as a societal indicator. I’ve never given them a penny of my money and never will. I’ll say this: this bubble (or bubbles when you think about bonds, etc) can’t be laid on wall streets door. This is all Yellen and Mel Watt and the gang in DC. Defaults just jumped and it’s post 2009 loans that made up the bulk of it.
Prof was just pointing out.
Even Dimon has asked Yellen to raise. As he said, it’s only a quarter of a point - get on with it already.
Now that the election is over, I propose that all posters henceforth refrain from posting blatantly partisan posts and instead concentrate on housing-related articles or at least posts that address the economic context of the housing bubble. This is difficult, of course, since I enjoy doing an end-zone dance on the shattered dreams of the Clintonistas as much as the next guy, but the focus needs to come back to the issue at hand: the housing bubble. What say you?
Agreed. Since no one ever changed anyone’s mind on the internet even with facts. Namaste
Sorry -
All these dots / flyspecks are too close together not to have (by now) established the lines between them with well defined words. To understand both of the most recent housing bubbles Wall Street, local / national govt’s, developers, and the agents must be known before they ride off into the sunset. They are all societal indicators and ceo Jamie Dimon is a perfect example from his field of expertise.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Jamie+Dimon+had+been+approached+by+Donald+Trump&ia=news
I agree. I have to admit though — the election was a great movie, with a great cast of characters.
Now we get to watch more episodes of the The Slashers.
Any relation to Spider Lockhart?
jeff, I saw your James Brown post. Good one.
Here’s one of my faves from the day after:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNbF9PI9Gjo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HX3pMcSXrYs - 139k - Cached - Similar pages
“Any relation to Spider Lockhart?”
Spider Lockhart was the best tackler on those Giant teams.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_%22Spider%22_Lockhart
“Spider Lockhart was the best tackler on those Giant teams.”
This guy was really good for a couple of years too.
John Mendenhall
From Wikipedia,
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=cache:Pr_Zh_iFA5YJ:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Mendenhall
I was rather hoping Mr. Banker would return to grace us with his opinion of how the election is likely to affect him.
Dimon thing is nothing but BS. Then again you are not going to get the truth from these Bull$hit venues. With that said, the next treasury sec will be a WallStreet guy. Pretty disappointing IMO.
And the Janet and her fellons….they need to go. Another major disappointment.
The tune changed somewhat after Election Day.
That said, it seems likely that the next Fed chair may be a freshwater economist.
Economy Central Banks
Donald Trump Not Seeking Janet Yellen’s Resignation, Economic Adviser Says
Still, Judy Shelton suggests president-elect wouldn’t nominate Fed chairwoman to second term as central bank chief
Donald Trump’s surprise victory could thwart rate-increase plans and put more pressure on Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen. WSJ’s Lee Hawkins explains.
By Kate Davidson and Greg Ip
Updated Nov. 9, 2016 5:37 p.m. ET
An economic adviser to Donald Trump on Wednesday said the president-elect isn’t seeking Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s resignation, despite a swirl of speculation in recent weeks that he might pressure the central bank leader to step down.
“He’s not urging her to resign at all,” Judy Shelton, an economist and senior fellow at the Atlas Network who advises Mr. Trump on monetary policy, told The Wall Street Journal.
Ms. Yellen’s term as chairwoman expires in February, 2018. Ms. Shelton suggested Mr. Trump wouldn’t nominate Ms. Yellen to a second term and instead would name someone else to take the helm. Paraphrasing Mr. Trump’s comments, Ms. Shelton said, “He’s saying he’d want someone whose thinking is more in keeping with his own.”
…
‘Another major disappointment’
Another sad panda? You know what I do? I don’t watch TV and don’t pay attention to the day by day, blow by blow stuff. It’s not that interesting really.
I had a great conversation yesterday with a Trump voter, who happens to also be a small business owner. Can’t say I blame him one bit…federal regulations have nearly strangled his ability to make a living.
Sad Panda? LOL
“With that said, the next treasury sec will be a WallStreet guy.”
Would be nice to see someone like Simon Johnson in there.
I was kind of hoping for Stanley Johnson.
Do we really need Central America’s dystopia flooding into our country?
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/13/world/americas/fleeing-gangs-central-american-families-surge-toward-us.html?_r=0
With open borders…
The gangs they are trying to escape will follow them.
And settle in thier new Hispanic American neighbourhoods.
Where are they going to run to next?
And FYI - Canada has strict immigration laws and requires an ID to vote.
And why don’t American liberals call Canada racist?
>> ‘I don’t think the market is falling, but sellers are getting
>> ahead of themselves a little bit,’ Rill said.
Right, it’s not “falling”, it’s just negative ascension.
Why are they giving it away????
Speaking of things missing…
I’m still interested in the issue of citizenship being a requirement to vote in the Presidential election. One poster yesterday claimed that it’s not possible for non citizens to vote.
I’ve been registered to vote in several states and when I last moved across state lines back to my native NY I am sure I did not have to present proof of citizenship. I simply filled out a form. NY does not even require photo ID. I’d be interested to hear from anyone else recently registering to vote if they had to prove their citizenship.
“In recent years, state legislatures across the country have implemented voter identification laws. These laws require voters to present some form of identification at the polls. In some cases, the required identification must include a photo.”
https://ballotpedia.org/Voter_identification_laws_by_state
President obama encourages illegals to vote without consequences.
And we wonder why so many do…
—–
As we always knew, California and American elections are filled with fraud and corruption. Thanks to a new poll, we now know that approximately 13% of illegal aliens vote. Since they are already criminals, stealing ID’s or using phony ID’s. lie to get welfare, steal jobs—why not vote as they to lose. Since they can not be deported or jailed, they have nothing to lose. Obama is protecting these law breakers.
http://www.capoliticalreview.com/capoliticalnewsandviews/poll-13-of-illegal-aliens-admit-they-vote/
It’s illegal to do so, but easy to do so. Also in many districts it’s legal to vote for non federal positions/measures as a non citizen.
Sam Reng listed his four-bedroom Miramar home in May for $384,900…he finally found a buyer at $340,000.
If I had a brand-new kitchen and kept it at the original price, I’m sure there would have been a lot more interest.’
He’s right. It’s *much* easier to borrow an extra $45K for a house with a new kitchen pre-done than it is to pay less upfront and pony up the $45K cash for the new kitchen later. Of course, it won’t be the kitchen you want…
On the hivTV hose hater shows fbs looking at 400k$ homes pooh poo anything needing a refrigerator
Doing updates in order to sell a home is a gamble. By all means, if you’ve got holes in the walls or leaks in the roof, fix ‘em. But as soon as you put in those spiffy stainless appliances, granite counter tops, tile flooring, etc. that make your chest swell with pride, a buyer will come through and turn up his or her nose and attempt to negotiate a concession so they can replace with white enamel, some other kind of stone and pickled oak floors, etc.
“I felt [$384,900] was a fair price, and I wasn’t looking to price-gouge anybody. But my kitchen was outdated. If I had a brand-new kitchen and kept it at the original price, I’m sure there would have been a lot more interest.”
This guy sold at $340,000. Let’s see, $384.9k less $340k is $44.9k.
How much would a brand new kitchen update cost?
It sounds to me like he got a market deal, but wanted to be paid as if he updated the kitchen.
“I felt [$384,900] was a fair price, and I wasn’t looking to price-gouge anybody.
Sadly, Sam, “feelings” count for much less what what a credit-worthy buyer is willing to pay, i.e. the market price. But I will feed a squirrel in your honor.
$385k for a shack? There’s some severe losses to be taken.
This house *might* be the shack in question. The initial listing price is $10K off, but the rest of the numbers check out.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2151-SW-148th-Ave-Miramar-FL-33027/43256250_zpid/
And yeah, IF this were the house, that’s a pretty dated kitchen — dated all the way back to 2001, when the house was built.
$150k brand new Donk. And that’s with a hefty profit.
Yup, 1911 sq ft, so about $50K profit.
Bravo Donk. Now explain the overage.
I think it was Karen who asked yesterday about restrictions on foreign buyers in Mexico — about purchasing houses close to the coasts.
Yes, indeed there is a “restriction zone”. I found this slightly older article about it from May 2015. It doesn’t appear that foreign buyers are completely banned, but they have to kinda share ownership with a bank.
http://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/2371-foreign-buyers-face-familiar-restrictions-in-mexico
Some quotes:
“Foreigners looking to buy real estate in Mexico need a permit from the Department of Foreign Affairs. In order to purchase in the “restricted zone” — within 100 kilometers (about 62 miles) of national borders or 50 kilometers of coastlines — they need a bank trusteeship, known as a “fideicomiso,” according to the department’s website.
The bank holds the deed to the property, while the buyer holds the rights over the land for a maximum of 50 years. The owner has the right to name heirs and substitute beneficiaries within the trust. Fideicomisos can be renewed multiple times for 50-year periods.”
Also this quote I thought was interesting:
“Mexico’s overall real estate market was hit last year by the introduction of a 35% capital gains tax on the sale of properties of around 3.5 million pesos or more (about $250,000 at the current exchange rate), which has made some would-be sellers reluctant to put their mansions on the market.”
Awesome policies in Mexico. We should have those in the US, too. Of course, the policies probably exist to protect the local oligarchs from the bigger badder foreign oligarchs (US, Russia), rather than the little people, but still.
Now go Google how Mexico treats illegals to include those from America.
No go Google how Mexicans have to show voter ID to vote.
Why don’t democrats call Mexico a racist country?
Take a look to the north. There is a flood of white Europeans (eastern) coming into the USA from Canada. A lot of the home buying in SW Fla is from E. European money. A Slovak friend of mine shared with me a number of safe entry places from Canada to the USA where one can simply walk across the border
I simply cross the border from Canada to the US all the time by water. The routine is self reporting and that’s not in person. The only place I’ve been pulled over is on the Champlain River.
Huh. My brother is in the process of closing on a property supposedly on the coast. I’ll have to ask him about this.
Fauxahontus and Bernie Sanders - both the controlled opposition - will now masquerade as the “progressive” saviors of a revitalized Democratic Party. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/305617-seething-liberals-vow-revolution-in-democratic-party
————————————–
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-12 09:54:18
Now that the election is over, I propose that all posters henceforth refrain from posting blatantly partisan posts and instead concentrate on housing-related articles or at least posts that address the economic context of the housing bubble. This is difficult, of course, since I enjoy doing an end-zone dance on the shattered dreams of the Clintonistas as much as the next guy, but the focus needs to come back to the issue at hand: the housing bubble. What say you?
————————————–
I dunno Ray. What say YOU???
Well played. Start the timer now.
Okay, this is bubble related….
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-silicon-valley-missed-trump-2016-11
Sorry to call you out on that Ray, but it was pretty tempting.
That said, the article confirms what I said upthread. Clinton supporters blamed the Sanders people for not snowing up. (In truth, most Sanders people did show up, but many voted for Stein and Johnson). The Sanders people are blaming Hillary’s corporatism and “untrustworthiness,” which is code for her scandals.
Meanwhile, all the Dems are still wondering why they “lost” those rural voters that flocked to Trump. IMO, it’s work ethic and social issues. I believe the Trump voters would have voted for FDR and his Democratic platform: projects and jobs and a chance to do honest work, both before and during the war. But in rural eyes, modern Dems hand out welfare, kill babies, smoke pot, let gays get married, and shelter immigrants in sanctuary cities, everything rural votes are against. And even worse, the more elite Dems use that fake generosity to get very rich behind the scenes, especially Clinton. Dems have a tough row to hoe.
(hope that wasn’t too partisan)
Your post-mortum of the election results has a childlike simplicity to it, but I won’t address your mischaracterization of “rural voters” since it would serve no purpose and is unrelated to housing. Let me just say that economic insecurity and a seething anger at our arrogant, out-of-touch political elites propelled Trump to power - and he’d better not go wobbly on Les Deplorables who elected him.
Personally, I think the single most dangerous thing in this country is that young men face bleak prospects for securing the kind of stable, lifelong employment at a living wage that enabled their fathers and grandfathers to raise families, buy homes (((housing angle!!))) and look to the future with a sense of optimism. A deep cultural pessimism has set in, and that has exacerbated the existing fault lines and “us and them” animosity in these dis-United States.
I told ya, illegals don’t vote. Too scared. Dont believe the MSM.
We need some more stimulus and debt! The more sh@t people buy the better off we are. 70% consumer economy.
The litmus test of Trump’s presidency: will the Fed still have a free hand to serve as the oligarchy’s chief instrument of plunder against the 99%?
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/13/business/economy/trump-the-fed-yellen-gets-ready-for-reckoning.html?_r=0
Drain the swamp means something different then this:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/politics/donald-trump-administration.html?action=click&contentCollection=Economy&module=Trending&version=Full®ion=Marginalia&pgtype=article
choices at AG:
Chris Christie New Jersey governor
Rudolph W. Giuliani Former New York mayor
Jeff Sessions Senator from Alabama
Here’s a few fun facts:
http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/20/news/saudi-government-workers-productivity/index.htm
According to civil service minister Khaled Alaraj, many Saudi government employees are really only working for an hour each day.
Almost 70% of employed Saudi nationals — more than 3 million — hold jobs in the public sector
At least now we know why the Saudis are selling their Treasuries: to make payroll. It’s pretty obvious why they continue to pump and sell as much oil as they can, their country is one big welfare state, where foreigners do all the real work. Without that oil money their welfare state is collapsing. It will be interesting to see what they will do once they run out of assets to sell.