November 13, 2016

The Fantasy That The Good Times Will Keep Rolling

A report from the Post & Courier in South Carolina. “Nearly three-dozen apartment developments with 6,251 units are either planned or under construction in the city of Charleston. More than half of those units are already being built, while others are grinding their way through the city’s approvals process. Some developers may abandon their projects before breaking ground, but in general, the apartment wave appears to be an all-time high for the city. ‘It makes us ask the question: are we growing in a way that is sustainable for the community, or are we growing in a way that works for developers to come in and title properties, then flip those properties and move on with a profit?’ Kristopher King, executive director of the Preservation Society of Charleston, said.”

“There is an opt-in zone already on the books that requires apartment developers in the Upper Peninsula to dedicate 15 percent of their total units to workforce housing. Of the roughly 2,000 units in that zone, about 300 will be for workforce housing. King added that many of those units are only suitable for single-person households. ‘You look at these workforce housing units, they average about 600 square feet and they’re basically studios,’ he said. ‘Are we building housing for everybody, or are we just creating a lot of inventory for college students and very young professionals?’”

From Crosscut in Washington. “Each morning on his way to work at City Hall, Seattle’s budget director Ben Noble bikes past two under-construction office towers. Both are slated for completion next year, Noble says, and both ‘are going to deliver a lot of product to the market.’ But he adds, neither building is ‘fully leased, by any means.’ The city isn’t anticipating a repeat of 2008, when the financial crisis caused construction to grind to a halt. The new forecast, issued by Noble’s office in late September (and echoed by King County and several private forecasters) predicts a soft landing: a nine percent decline in construction through 2019, coupled with an even more modest cooling in the city’s broader economy.”

“While economists start to get nervous when booms stretch past the historic average (around eight years), the opposite is true for most people. The longer the good times keep rolling, the easier it is to buy into the fantasy that they’ll keep rolling, that our tech-fueled economy is, somehow, becoming untethered from national trends and historic cycles. Or as the recent Delta Airlines ad insists, ‘You can’t stop Seattle.’”

“Arguably, agglomeration is even a stronger force today. It also helps explain why developers have been pumping out new office space — and why they’re so confident that housing demand will remain high. According to real-estate market analyst Dupree Scott, developers expect to bring another 25,000 rental units online by 2019. While wages have been soaring (3.6 percent annually in the Seattle metro area) they’re not rising nearly as fast as rents (9.7 percent) or home prices (11.8 percent). ‘You see rents growing at 15 to 20 percent over the last two years, but show me where incomes have gone up to match,’ says Mathew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere. ‘They haven’t.’”

The Tennessean. “Between Broadstone Germantown, Carillon, Peyton Stakes and 909 Flats, more than 1,000 apartment units are coming online in a Germantown area market that’s considered ground zero of Nashville’s apartment construction boom. Beyond perks, developers are dangling amenities such as a rooftop entertainment venue and art studios to differentiate their properties in the increasingly crowded market.”

“Last week, Nick Ingram and Loren McBride and their two dogs settled into a unit at Broadstone Germantown, drawn in part by a pitch of a month’s free rent and a $1,000 gift card. ‘Basically, by the time you add that over the course of the year-long lease, it ended up being almost as cheap as what we were paying in Murfreesboro,’ Ingram said, estimating that with the value of the incentives, the couple is paying $1,250 a month instead of $1,470.”

The Star Tribune in Minnesota. “Demand for rental apartments in the Twin Cities metro continues to defy expectations. Marquette’s Apartment Trends report said the average market rent was $1,091, a 5.4 percent increase compared with last year. Because so many of the new units that have come online are luxury units, much of that increase was a change from the typical mix of properties.”

“Valerie Doleman, vice president for marketing and communications for Twin Cities-based Sherman Associates, said that occupancy throughout the company’s entire portfolio in the Twin Cities has remained high — about 96 percent. She said that leasing activity has remained strong, but with several high-end projects currently in lease-up, renters have been pondering their decision. The company is putting the finishing touches on the Encore, a luxury 12-story rental building overlooking Gold Medal Park and the Mississippi River in the Mill District. The building has the kinds of finishes that are typically found in upscale for-sale condos.”

“Rents range from $1,780 for a studio to $8,600 for a penthouse unit. Though move-ins won’t start until December, the building is 12 percent pre-leased. ‘People are requiring more time to make a decision,’ she said. ‘We have adjusted our marketing strategy to better help them in their decision process.’”

The Wichita Eagle in Kansas. “Renters, rejoice! Wichita is going through an apartment construction boom, which will mean more choices and, increasingly, a break on rent increases. Developers built 800 units this year and more than 2,300 units since 2013, according to a recent report from Martens Commercial. 2017 may come close to matching 2016, with two apartment projects on the west side and two downtown under construction. And after 2017, the number of potential projects on drawing boards goes on and on.”

“Martens agent Jeff Englert said there are signs Wichita is reaching the peak in this apartment construction cycle. New construction is expensive to pay for, and developers count on the buildings to fill up fast. That’s why construction in a boom cycle can be like musical chairs. The first ones into the market stood out and likely are doing well. Those who wait to enter the market risk waiting too long and not having their projects fill up without some money-losing incentives. ‘You just don’t want to be that last guy,’ Englert said.”

“Craig Hanson, president of Weigand-Omega, one of the city’s largest property managers, said he expects a lot of pressure to fall on older apartment complexes, from the nicest properties in the good locations, called Class A, to the next level down, Class B. Their owners will have to reinvest to stay even or will have to accept a lower rent to compete. ‘They’ll feel more pressure for incentives and free rents across the entire market,’ Hanson said.”

The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “Some coveted neighborhoods of Houston, where top-end luxury apartments rose en masse, are now seeing some of the sharpest drops, as the apartment glut in the weakened economy continues to take hold. Economists and the latest monthly reports on Houston’s apartment market reveal the signs of a depressed market, particularly in Montrose, River Oaks, the Museum District, the Galleria and The Woodlands. These markets are also among the most expensive and were targeted for new projects during Houston’s boom years.”

“Commenting on the multifamily market this week, University of Houston economist Bill Gilmer said after oil prices started to fall, Houston developers continued to build, expanding the local multifamily market by 30 percent. ‘We just could not quit building these apartments,’ the director of the Bauer College’s Institute of Regional Forecasting said during his semiannual economic update. ‘Sure enough, there are some problems arising.’”

“Landlords are offering so many move-in specials that Gilmer noted a thread on the Houston Reddit website that lists all the buildings with deals of up to three months free rent. Average rents have peaked and vacancy rates in some Inner Loop neighborhoods could be above 10 and 20 percent by year’s end. Multifamily construction will also peak this year, falling from more than 27,000 units to nearly 8,000 units next year, according to Gilmer’s projections. In 2018, fewer than 2,000 units are expected to be built.”

“Bruce McClenny of Houston-based Apartment Data Services said rents and occupancy among top-end luxury apartments continue to slip. But he said recent months have shown that this has trickled down to the lower-end older products. ‘The economy is so slow that we are starting to see the move-outs overtake the move-ins,’ McClenny said. ‘It’s kind of a slow, agonizing thing that is going on. … For renters, it is a good thing because there are a lot of good deals out there.’”

“As construction jobs finish, fewer people will need to live on the blue-collar east side and drops in occupancy and rents will be seen, McClenny said. ‘That will be a concern for 2017,’ he said. ‘That’s also going to be a drag on the overall numbers.’”

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 10:15:49

These articles are worth reading in full, but especially the Crosscut piece.

‘As construction jobs finish, fewer people will need to live on the blue-collar east side and drops in occupancy and rents will be seen’

This is the most under-estimated aspect of this building boom, be it infrastructure, retail, housing or office. This has put a lot of people to work and that’s going away. And note these are the super-exaggerated markets: Seattle, Minneapolis, Nashville. It wasn’t just good times: this was multi-decade boom times.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-13 12:45:14

“…this was multi-decade boom times.”

And apparently it wasn’t only happening here.

Dec 5, 2014 @ 08:19 AM
The Little Black Book of Billionaire Secrets
China Used More Concrete In 3 Years Than The U.S. Used In The Entire 20th Century
Niall McCarthy, Contributor
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.

China produces and consumes about 60 percent of the world’s cement — the Three Gorges Dam alone required 16 million tonnes of it. To put China’s massive 21st century construction splurge and concrete consumption into perspective, Bill Gates made a mind-blowing comparison.

According to his blog, between 2011 and 2013, China consumed 6.6 gigatons of concrete – that’s more than the U.S. used in the entire 20th century. Look at what the U.S. built between 1901 and 2000: all those skyscrapers, the Interstate, the Hoover Dam, the list goes on and on but all that concrete only amounted to 4.5 gigatons.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-13 17:01:50

“This has put a lot of people to work and that’s going away.”

It is hard to imagine something that was not lifted by the multi-decade building boom and will be “going away” to some painful extent.

Comment by goedeck
2016-11-14 11:39:30

Perot: “bubble jobs”

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 10:18:52

‘It makes us ask the question: are we growing in a way that is sustainable for the community, or are we growing in a way that works for developers to come in and title properties, then flip those properties and move on with a profit?’

I’ve already forgotten the industry term for these guys: developers that built apartments for the purpose of resale, not to operate. I posted an article months ago where a local student-apartment CEO in Missouri lambasted these flippers saying they didn’t care about the over-all health of the market.

Comment by SW
2016-11-13 19:11:10

I listen to CRE podcasts where guys are talking about how they’ve been buying multifamily all day long for the last five years and upgrading the properties, getting the rent roll filled out and then flipping them or cashing out the equity and paying back the investors. Hopefully they left enough equity in the properties to hang on to them when the multifamily crash comes on STRONG.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 19:32:28

It’s all fun till the music stops.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-14 08:11:29

That’s why politicians and central bankers alike work so very hard to keep the music playing as long as possible on their own watch.

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Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2016-11-14 00:08:56

“I’ve already forgotten the industry term for these guys: developers that built apartments for the purpose of resale, not to operate.”

Merchant builders?

Comment by SW
2016-11-14 09:26:23

Yes. Merchant builders.

Comment by Foo Bar
2016-11-13 10:52:14

Hi Ben,

India demonetizes Rs 500 and Rs 1000 bills overnight (last week).
Same night Trump was elected in USA.

Biggest black money in India is taken out of market overnight.
This will cause real estate to tank.

For example, a sale of real estate flat for 3 crores, 30% is cash.
No tax paid on that. This money caused the prices to go up.

You can not deposit money more than some petty amount in bank.
No shop or anything accepts these notes any more.
So all the black money under mattresses is useless now.

I am surprised your blog has not looked at this at all.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 11:02:25

I’ve got an article saved on it that I’ll probably post today or tomorrow. It’s sad pandemonium over there. Here’s the thing about India: it’s apparently a very corrupt place. This black money has been a big part of their bubble for years. Throw in the emerging market problems and it’s ‘look out below’!

Comment by mcbain!
2016-11-13 15:17:06

Panda-monium? We’re seeing a lot lately, gonna be a lot more in the future!

Comment by mcbain!
2016-11-13 15:18:32

Almost forgot, global markets topped last year. I think that may have been the earthquake, and the tsunami will be hitting the US soon.

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Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2016-11-13 16:05:53

IMHO, the black money holders had plenty of time to launder their gains. It is not like the idea of paper currency moratoriums has not been thought about as a means to stifle the hidden cash’s value.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-13 17:08:49

Plenty of time like “overnight”? “Black money” isn’t just drug money, it’s everything in the cash economy. I still travel to places that don’t take credit cards and I have enough cash to fill the gas tank a few times ($300 to $400 a pop). Having everything in my billfold above a Lincoln become worthless on a surprise announcement would be rather inconvenient.

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Comment by 2banana
2016-11-13 14:43:54

Bet they wished they had gold or US dollars instead of high denomination Rs.

There is a lesson in there somewhere…

For all of us.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-13 17:10:20

Yes, if we had silver coin, it couldn’t be repudiated by decree.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 10:57:35

‘Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings said Thursday the Dallas Police and Fire Pension Fund crisis — combined with another looming problem — could potentially bankrupt the city. Rawlings said a $4 billion hit from the pension system, combined with a possible $4 billion dollar judgment in a decades old lawsuit, could be too much for taxpayers to handle.’

“A city that has made Texas so strong and so proud is potentially walking into the fan blades that might look like bankruptcy,” Rawlings told state leaders. “Shame on me. Shame on you. Shame on all of us if we allow that to happen.”

‘Rawlings says 130% property tax increase would be needed to fix police/fire pension fund’

‘Eight of the twelve members of the Police and Fire Pension Board are employees and the mayor has accused them of being unwilling to make more severe changes to the plan. “Taxpayers did not cause this problem and we do not believe we are legally responsible for this problem,” Rawlings said November 3.’

‘The dire situation is blamed on benefit promises that were too generous; risky real estate investments that did not produce as hoped and questionable management in the past.’

Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-13 11:38:05

‘Rawlings says 130% property tax increase would be needed to fix police/fire pension fund’

Time for Texans to start thinking about TABOR.

Even without it, I don’t see property taxes there (which are already sky high) going up 130% without a revolt. Dallas cops and fire fighters are fubar’d.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 13:08:16

As I’ve noted, houses represent large, illiquid assets for the taxman when municipalities need to extract more wealth to service a certain party’s patronage and graft networks while fending off insolvency.

Comment by Karen
2016-11-13 15:17:54

Lots of people are pushing back against property tax increases, even in well-off communities “Keep Frisco Affordable”

And they did it. The tax increase did not pass

Comment by taxpayers
2016-11-13 11:01:14

Death by gov union goons
It’s coming

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 11:07:59

In Dallas everybody is quitting.

‘Dallas voters approved a ballot initiative to reform the $3.3 billion Dallas Employees’ Retirement Fund. The Dallas initiative, which applies only to employees hired on or after Jan. 1, reduces cost-of-living adjustments and survivor benefits, raises the retirement age to 65 from 60 and discontinues a monthly health benefit supplement of up to $125. The COLA will be reduced to a maximum 3% from 5%.Dallas city code required that the changes be approved by residents, the pension fund board and City Council. It had already been approved by the board and City Council.’

‘The pension fund has estimated that the changes, approved by 69% of voters, will reduce long-term liabilities by roughly $2.15 billion over the next 30 years.’

‘In October, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings lowered Dallas’ general obligation bond rating over the city’s exposure to unfunded pension liabilities and high withdrawals from the police and fire system’s DROP program. Unfunded liabilities at ERF more than doubled in 2015 to $2.2 billion, according to Fitch Ratings. The $2.8 billion Dallas Police & Fire Pension System, which is separate from ERF, reported about $6.9 billion in unfunded pension liabilities at the end of 2015, a 40% increase from the previous year, due primarily to realized private equity and real estate losses, according to Fitch.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 11:13:53

‘The outlook is grim on account of poor investment returns in 2015 and the current year, and low market-based discount rates. Moody’s expects the pension burden to grow by 6% for fiscal 2016, and by another 31% for 2017. The aggregate pension burden is projected to be $513 billion in 2017, nearly a 40% increase over fiscal 2015.’

‘With ratings tending to fall for the 50 largest local governments, governments “already facing steep liabilities and with contributions well short of covering the interest on their reported net liabilities will face the greatest pressure,” Moody’s warned.’

“Where debt and pension burdens rise relative to governments’ capacity to pay, we would expect credit quality to deteriorate, and vice versa,” it added.’

Chicago may as well give up.

Comment by 2banana
2016-11-13 14:47:46

Did Detroit give up?

They declared bankruptcy with barely a nick to the insane public union pensions that put them into bankruptcy in the first place…

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Comment by taxpayers
2016-11-13 15:30:59

Gov workers never quit till they’re vested
Or until they get Trumped

Comment by Karen
Comment by azdude
2016-11-13 13:13:23

The higher prices go the more likely you will have to go beg for a loan and pay them their cut.

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-13 11:27:03

“There is an opt-in zone already on the books that requires apartment developers in the Upper Peninsula to dedicate 15 percent of their total units to workforce housing.”

Workforce housing. I’ve seen this term pop up here and there, first took note of it on one of the Asheville, NC forums. Workforce housing. What’s that? Lower rent apartments for lower income people who do the cooking, cleaning, landscaping, maintenance and other grunt work (like retail and restaurant) for the more prosperous residents of and visitors to the area such as wealthier retirees, second homeowners, wealthier professionals, tourists, etc. But from what I read, even this “workforce housing” had high rents relative to what the people they were earmarked for were earning.

Back in the 1980s, I used to know a guy who owned some “workforce housing”. He called himself a slumlord and the rent was collected weekly, on Fridays when people used to get weekly paychecks, by a goon who showed up in the parking lot of the complex and collected from the wives whose husbands were smart enough to turn their paychecks over to their spouses. For those that weren’t, the goon’s next stop was the neighborhood watering holes and gathering places. The guy told me his investment in workforce housing was quite profitable. He rarely had to evict anyone because they usually cleared out ahead of the goon’s arrival if they didn’t have the rent.

Comment by oxide
2016-11-13 14:10:31

And didja notice that those workforce housing units were 600 sq ft? Effin’ cheaters. They dedicated as little of the total sq ft as they could to those pesky workers. And workers can’t even fit a roommate in the unit to help pay the rent. And evidently those workers aren’t allowed to have families either.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-13 14:46:38

How much floor space does a person need?

My grandparents built an 800 ft2 house in 1945 and raised two kids there. That included three bedrooms, a living room and a formal dining room. More than that is a museum for collections of furniture and stuff.

Comment by oxide
2016-11-13 18:22:52

Blue, what I was getting at was that those working-class apartments were 600 sq ft, but the “luxury” units were probably much bigger because size adds value (even if it doesn’t add more rooms. Yes, it’s stupid.) Based on square footage alone, the luxury folks can fit more people into a unit than the units for the schmoes.

That said, square footage doesn’t matter if the design sucks. I’ve looked at the floor plans of quite a few of these luxury modern amenity boxes and the layout is atrocious. A 600 ft unit is likely shoved into an angle or narrow part of the building. Even a 600 ft unit is probably a studio, because if they built walls for a bedroom, it wouldn’t have a window and may not be legal.

To answer your question about minimum floor space, with good design, a single person or a very close couple can can pack a modern dwelling* into about 400 sq ft. Incidentally, 400 is the unofficial threshold between a “tiny” house and a small house. A comfortable one-bedroom dwelling can easily fit into ~550 sq ft, which was the size of my first apartment. Add about 120 sq ft for each extra bedroom. At 3-beds I think adding a half bath is appropriate. So yes, 800 sq ft is about right, especially for an SFH.

*To me, a “modern” dwelling is self-contained; that is, it has a kitchen with stove/fridge/sink, a 3/4 bath with flush toilet, a small living area, a washer/dryer, and a bedroom that’s not in a loft. Yes you can live smaller, but you’d need to outsource to a laundromat and you probably couldn’t cook from scratch.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-13 19:52:32

No windows for a bedroom is an interesting aspect.

Comment by oxide
2016-11-14 06:47:39

Next time HBB posts a link to a new luxury apartment building, go check out the floor plans. The units are long and skinny and there are windows on only one wall — the skinny wall. It’s very hard to fit real bedrooms in that shape. That’s the origin of “two bedrooms + den” units. The “den” is a bedroom without a window.

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-11-14 09:02:54

blue we all had an outside to play in, so the size of the home didn’t need to be so big.

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Comment by aNYCdj
2016-11-14 08:59:05

ox…600 sq ft is not so bad today even for a couple….with flat tv’s on the wall no bookcases cd dvd racks with beds that are raised or have drawers underneath… eat in kitchen which fits a nice 4 seat table…laptops….

much different world then 10 years ago……but you are right not sure how you could fit another bedroom or alcove in 600 sqft…..700-750 would be doable

Comment by mcbain!
2016-11-13 15:22:50

In my county that’s been pretty much the only type of housing thats been built in the last decade unless you buy the lot yourself and build custom which has all kinds of costs (like water hookup at 18K!). Its a scam to keep housing prices high while providing housing to keep wage inflation low but they make sure that there is little opportunity for younger generations to buy housing - wages are too low to save after they pay their living expenses. Its a plantation economy.

Comment by 2banana
2016-11-13 15:48:48

Is your country New Jersey….😊

Seriously, for $18k I would put in a cistern system and never hook up.

And now they have nothing to tax either…

Comment by mcbain!
2016-11-13 16:48:14

Nope, thankfully nowhere near Joisey. Water hookup used to be 4K, but the water department did a study to find out why they were in the red every year. Turns out they werent charging customers enough to cover their costs, so rather than raise fees on existing customers they decided to stiff the newcomers. Be some sweet irony if they ended up dying in a fire.

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Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-13 17:24:04

“Seriously, for $18k I would put in a cistern system and never hook up.”

How exactly would you fill that cistern with water?

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Comment by 2banana
2016-11-13 17:39:00

A big old water truck comes and fills it up for pennies a gallon when mother nature doesn’t provide.

And the water comes from a pure spring.


This is very common in Central America and Africa for the middle class….

Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-14 06:51:46

That is pretty much the only way to fill it, especially in the drought stricken west. I know people out here who do that (they live in the sticks, so no water hookup is available at all).

Most of them have a plastic tank in the back of a pickup and they need to refill their cistern on a daily basis because a pickup can only haul so much water at a go. Also, their cisterns tens to be small, as big ones cost $$$. So they drive into town every day (there is a place where they can fill up the water tank, self serve a la gas station, after swiping a credit card). It seems like a colossal daily chore, plus they have to use their water very carefully so as not to run out and have to make a second run into town.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-14 08:20:03

I have a fresh water tank on the boat that is about 40 gallons. One learns to do things differently. It will last me alone two weeks if I am being careful. One week if there is “crew” aboard. A luxurious shower takes two or three gallons with a spray that shuts off while soaping up. A day’s worth of dishes is 1/2 gallon. Laundry is a trip to a town.

Half a ton of water is 120 gallons.

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-13 11:39:49

Much of this is behind a registration wall, but the first three paragraphs sum it up nicely and I myself have commented a number of times on the paper tiger that is Amazon:

Wha’ hoppen?

Comment by Lurker
2016-11-13 12:10:05

“They average about 600 square feet and they’re basically studios,’ he said. ‘Are we building housing for everybody, or are we just creating a lot of inventory for college students and very young professionals?’””

Lol. Dude, wake up: that housing IS housing for everybody. College students and young professionals would kill to have 600 sq ft to themselves, but it’s not going to happen at these prices. I know a family of 4 living in a 700 sq ft walk-up apartment with one bathroom. With renovations, they paid almost a million dollars for it.

Getting harder and harder to paper over drastically reduced standards of living with elitist denial.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-13 13:19:32

Even more difficult to hide 25 million excess empty and defaulted houses in an environment of collapsing housing demand.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-13 14:20:50

It’s hard to imagine anyone being that stupid. $200 a night for 30 years!

Comment by oxide
2016-11-13 18:30:24

You sound like you’re in Manhattan or San Francisco. These relatively stingy units are in Charleston, South Carolina. No shortage of land.

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-11-14 09:09:55

ox i lived in charleston, there is a shortage of high land hugo flooded a lot of the city so you needed to go outward west ashley north charleston, but those areas have become ghettoized….but not for long….

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 12:10:50

From the Crosscut article:

‘One final piece of evidence that we’re not invulnerable to a slowdown: investors aren’t as hot on Seattle as they once were. Until fairly recently, banks, pension funds, Asian billionaires, and other players in the global capital markets couldn’t get enough Seattle-area assets. Our tech-hub narrative, coupled with a shortage of other global investment opportunities, led investors to pour money into virtually any high rise or office building that a developer might propose, a success that only burnished the region’s reputation as a growth machine.’

‘But those glory days are fading a bit. Banks have become more cautious in financing construction projects in the Seattle area, and now typically charge a higher interest rate or demand a larger equity stake from the developer. As one veteran Seattle developer puts it, “where banks were throwing money at me to do a project a year ago, now they’re looking at everything with very suspicious eyes.”

‘Likewise, when developers put their completed office towers or apartment buildings on the market, they’re now getting fewer buyout offers. No local buildings have gone unsold, but as Jon Hallgrimson with real estate company CRBE puts it, “instead of maybe ten or twenty investors chasing the same property, now it’s half a dozen or maybe even just two or three.”

This is why it happened:

‘banks were throwing money at me to do a project a year ago’

‘Until fairly recently, banks, pension funds, Asian billionaires, and other players in the global capital markets couldn’t get enough Seattle-area assets’

Now Houston ended up like this:

‘after oil prices started to fall, Houston developers continued to build, expanding the local multifamily market by 30 percent. ‘We just could not quit building these apartments…Sure enough, there are some problems arising.’

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-13 12:40:37

“While economists start to get nervous when booms stretch past the historic average (around eight years), the opposite is true for most people. The longer the good times keep rolling, the easier it is to buy into the fantasy that they’ll keep rolling, that our tech-fueled economy is, somehow, becoming untethered from national trends and historic cycles. Or as the recent Delta Airlines ad insists, ‘You can’t stop Seattle.’”

I met a Millennial yesterday who works two jobs — a day job during the regular work week, plus a weekend job as a foodie tour guide for groups like the one I was part of. She was also visibly pregnant.

She commented to our group that the reason for the second job was to help her and her husband be able to afford to buy a home in San Diego. I later counseled her to wait until after the next real estate crash before dipping a toe into the market. She more or less rolled her eyes and went on as though she was planning to buy as soon as possible.

The number of young people who miss the permanent income implications of buying at a bubble top always astonishes me. Apparently most people believe that the best time to buy is at the peak of euphoria. The same folks seem to be the most astonished after the inevitable bust that soon follows.

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2016-11-13 16:28:31

‘ Apparently most people believe that the best time to buy is at the peak of euphoria. The same folks seem to be the most astonished after the inevitable bust that soon follows.’

We are at some really low interest rates right now. If we get back to 6% mortgages, can potential buyers handle a possible 80% increase in monthly payment cost? You know, the first 7 years of a 30 year mortgage payment plan almost is all just interest payments according to my readings. What would house prices do in a 6% interest rate environment?

Comment by oxide
2016-11-14 07:27:11

It won’t be 80%. The 80% jumps were during the bubble pop, when people who were paying less than interest only suddenly had to pay principle and interest.

Anyway, for a $300K house 10% down (bankrate mort calc):
4%: PI = $1289
6%: PI = $1618 (25% increase)
6% and PI of $1289 = $239K

In other words, a 6% interest rate environment would drop a $300K house to $239K, about 20%. All the numbers are approx and don’t include taxes.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-14 08:37:15

Donk, the losses to interest are minor compared to the losses associated with the 250% premiums paid on each housing sale.

Paying $400k for a $160k house is the problem.

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Comment by redmondjp
2016-11-13 19:41:52

PB - you tried to talk a pregnant woman out of buying her nest????

You obviously don’t know much about women.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-14 01:53:30

I’ve been married for almost 25 years. I admit we did own “the nest” at the points when my wife was pregnant, but she didn’t argue with me when I suggested it was time to start renting over ten years ago.

Comment by SW
2016-11-14 10:03:32

PB, that young person is probably in the same place I was a decade ago. In my mid 20s with no RE experience. Hearing from everyone that the high housing cost was the new norm after six years of runup. Realtors saying buy now or be priced out. It creates tremendous pressure to buy and when housing and rents have only gotten more expensive as they have in the last 7 years or so it creates even more pressure to try and lock in some kind of fixed housing cost.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-14 10:06:53

Rent it for half the monthly cost. Buy later after prices crater for 65% less.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 13:25:34

The uprising against the globalist oligarchs now shifts to Italy, where a vote on December 4th could reignite the Eurozone financial crisis if Italians reject austerity and being a bankster looting colony.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 14:42:30

Yet another populist uprising against the oligarchs could send shockwaves through the Eurozone - and global markets.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 13:44:52

Anti-Trump protests are being orchestrated by the Usual Suspects. Soros and the other oligarchs must be writing lots of checks.

Comment by 2banana
2016-11-13 14:46:05

Obama’s legacy:

2010 Dems lose House
2014 Dems lose Senate
2016 Dems lose White House

Funny how they are not protesting obama…

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 16:45:55

Don’t forget healthcare costs up 110% for those who pay the bills.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-14 07:56:32

link for that?

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-14 08:47:14

Labor Force Participation Rate Falls To 38 Year Low; Joblessness At Record High

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-11-13 23:39:26

They are protesting Obama…at the ballot box.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-11-13 17:06:27

You can’t post ZeroHedge links here :(

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 17:11:37

Looks like you escaped the Gulag for Irredeemable Deplorables for at least the next four years. Stay Deplorable, my friend.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 13:54:58

Spain’s Catalan separatist movement is heating up as the prosperous region wants to get out from under the socialist Spanish government that has been “redistributing the wealth” at Catalan’s expense. Remember, Spain and Italy are too big to be bailed out - if the Eurozone financial crisis reignites because of political unrest in either or both countries, the “contained” Eurozone crisis could rapidly spiral out of control.

Comment by 2banana
2016-11-13 14:22:57

The socialists in Spain (and all over the world) are going to have lots of trouble buying votes to stay in power when the actual productive people decide to not pay anymore…

Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-13 14:41:23

Trust me, the Catalonians are far more socialist and culturally marxist than the American Democrat party. And FWIW, the current government in Madrid is considered “right wing” by Spain’s socialists. Prime Minister Rajoy has incurred the wrath of the Spanish left by cutting back on the socialist freebies.

Spain’s socialists have been kicked to the curb for some time now. If anyone is socialist, it’s the Catalonians. The independence party is called “Junts pel Si” (Together for Yes).

From wikipedia:

“Together for Yes[1] (Catalan: Junts pel Sí; IPA: [ʒuns pəɫ si]) is a Catalan independence coalition to stand in the 2015 Catalonian parliamentary election. It is supported by Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC), Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), Democrats of Catalonia (DC) and Left Movement (MES).[2]“

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 15:04:39

My point in posting this isn’t to pass judgement on the Cantolonians. It’s to point out that the Eurozone crisis, which was papered over with trillions in QE, remains fundamentally unsolved - and if regions like Catalonia push their bids for self-determination, it could unravel austerity and bailout agreements that have kept the PIIGS from having a fiscal implosion that could take down the Eurozone if not the global financial system. Which would implode the central bankers’ asset bubbles, including (((housing))) and allow true price discovery at long last.

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Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-13 15:08:45

But the Catalonians don’t want to leave the EU. They want their seat on the EU council.

Comment by 2banana
2016-11-13 15:04:53

Trust me - always follow the money with socialists trying to stay in power.


Catalonia suffers a tax deficit with respect to the Spanish state of around 8% of its GDP which in 2010 amounted to €16,000,000,000 of Catalan taxes that were paid to Madrid and not reinvested in Catalonia. This makes Catalonia the most highly taxed region in Europe and its schools, health services, roads and infrastructures are suffering in comparison to supposedly poorer regions of Spain.

Furthermore, many decisions taken by central government have negative effects on the local economy.

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Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-13 17:34:09

I’m not saying that Catalonians aren’t getting screwed by Madrid, but they sure like their free heathcare, free universities, subsidized rents, etc.

When I was there last time, I described libertarianism to a group of Catalonians. You should have seen the look of horror on their faces. They thought I was joking and making up the whole thing.

The root of the Catalonian desire for independence is that they are not Spanish, pure and simple. They have their own language and culture and simply hate Spaniards because they are Spaniards. The tax looting is simply one more thing that pisses them off. But I can tell you that even if it was the other way around and Madrid was sending them money, they would still want independence. It’s a tribalism thing, which for Americans can be very hard to grasp.

Comment by taxpayers
2016-11-13 15:36:18

How does spain or any country continue w 19% unemployment
Vs Singapore at 3%
Less free sht

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Comment by new attitude
2016-11-13 14:51:31

Not the definition of socialism.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-13 14:32:12

Betcha the Catalonians want to stay in the EU. I’d say that the desire to leave Spain has more to do with cultural nationalism than wanting true independence. They’ll be more than happy to bow to Brussells.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 14:33:55

If that’s what they want, all power to them. Self-determination of sovereign peoples and nations is something that needs to happen.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 14:40:47
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Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-13 15:10:59

I’m fine with them breaking away from Spain. Just saying that this has NOTHING to do with rejecting socialism or EU centralization of power.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 15:23:53

It DOES have everything to do with self-determination. That’s my point. And self-determination is anathama to the globalist-oligarchs running the EU from Brussels.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-13 17:44:14

If it really was about self determination they would also shun the EU, but they won’t. It’s all about Madrid.

I’ve been to Barcelona. The hatred of Spaniards was palpable. Only their hatred of Americans was worse. They didn’t care for the Japanese either. During that trip, a school that catered to Japanese expats kids was defaced with swastikas.

When I was there I told people (in Mexican Spanish) that I was Mexican. That made me a good guy (because the Mexican government never recognized the Franco regime)

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2016-11-13 16:37:50

I don’t get Spain. Look at the landscape and geography of it. It is California-esque. I would think everyone would want to live there:

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 14:39:09
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 15:00:27

Jeebus, Trump said in his speech the day after the election Priebus really helped him. I don’t care for Christy, but his support came at an important time. It’s the Republican party, you’re gonna get some Republicans! This constant, sad panda bed-wetting can go on, but I’m not hosting it. The supreme court picks alone are more important that this piddle.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 15:08:51

Trump also said he would drain the swamp. I’m holding him to it.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 15:28:13

The first step to not being a sad panda is, don’t be sad. We could be sitting here having to watch that shrieking Clinton every day for the next 4 years while she packed the supreme court with “activist” judges. And don’t forget all the other courts.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 15:42:21

I’m not sad, just wary and watchful. And yes, even if Trump backpedals from some of his campaign rhetoric, I’ll always give him credit for knocking 16 Establishment Republican clown car occupants out of the race (costing the oligarchy $200 million in “investments”) and then going on to defeat Crooked Hillary and trigger some long-overdue recriminations in the corrupt, corporate DNC. So there’s that. Four years of Screech and her endless scandals, influence peddling, open borders, globalism, and neocon fisascos was a prospect too horrific to ponder.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 16:44:52

Oh, and this president seems highly unlikely to try and disarm the populace so he can implement “redistribution of the wealth.”

Comment by Karen
2016-11-13 17:44:12

Just watching the SJW crowd shriek and moan in disbelief is enough for me.

Election night was absolutely priceless. I wish I could relive it over and over.

The people who thought they had a lock on everything, who thought they would rule us forever, were REBUKED, as were all their handmaidens in the media.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-13 22:21:39

“and then going on to defeat Crooked Hillary”

Which he did while spending a fraction of what she spent on campaigning.

I had breakfast in Indiana at a good old fashioned Denny’s the day after the election.

The mood there couldn’t have been more jovial.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-14 01:54:47

“I’m not sad, just wary and watchful.”

Sad-eye Ray offers a clarifying comment…

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-13 15:52:55

“The supreme court picks alone are more important that this piddle.”

ED ZACHARY! What do people want, Alex Jones? If it hadn’t been for Priebus, there wouldn’t be a Priebus appointment to pick apart, that’s for sure. Like it or not, Priebus was key to Trump’s win and captained the Republican ship through quite a squall. Priebus will keep things on an even keel and keep Ryan and McConnell at bay. He’s a superb diplomat, from what I can see. And I’m not particularly a fan.

Stephen Bannon has been appointed Chief Strategist and Senior Counselor, roughly equal in stature and influence to Priebus. I like to envision Trump sitting with a pile of markers in front of him: “Ok, that’s one for the establishment, one for me. One for the establishment, one & two for me…”

Where Bannon and Priebus are at odds, Trump will make them both present their case, as he has been known to do with senior employees when they are not in agreement.

Now, if I see Bolton or Hadley or any of the other neocon crazies in the administration, then I will hit the roof.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 16:29:26

‘If it hadn’t been for Priebus, there wouldn’t be a Priebus appointment to pick apart’

And the way I see it, this is another defection from the old establishment, and it must have happened months ago.

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Comment by palmetto
2016-11-13 17:05:35

I’m thinking it happened at or around the time of the convention. And it was a great convention, too. I was in awe of how well organized and orchestrated it was, another feather in Priebus’ cap. Unlike the dumpster fire in Philly.

This election cycle has really made me think a lot about malinvestment. The DNC, the Clinton campaign, the Democratic super PACs, all of them drowning in money and they couldn’t pull off a halfway decent campaign. The rallies, the convention, all of it was so drab and dreary. They could barely get Hillary a decent outfit to wear. All that money going to crush Bernie and then the attempt to crush Trump. All these people plotting and planning and sticking it to each other. It’s sort of symbolic of the bubble and its aftermath. Meaningless, dreary bloat.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-13 20:08:11

Yeah, but Palmy, we are still waiting to see what the aftermath of the bubble looks like. Rumors of the gears grinding isn’t exactly the aftermath.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 20:12:16

‘They could barely get Hillary a decent outfit to wear’

I’ve never seen a good looking pantsuit.

Comment by butters
2016-11-13 20:35:42

I’ve never seen a good looking pantsuit.

The best pantsuit is the one you are born with.

Comment by oxide
2016-11-14 09:24:02

Women’s hourglass shape simply doesn’t look good in pantsuits. A woman can get away with if she is either tall, or thin, or has shoulders and hips which are the same width. But pear-shape women should stick to dresses. Problem is, Clinton doesn’t have great legs either, so the pantsuit was the lesser of two evils.

Comment by tresho
2016-11-14 10:35:42

the pantsuit was the lesser of two evils.
Maybe she should have worn a sari.

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-11-13 23:45:01

I remember hearing some of the talking heads, on several occasions, when interviewing Priebus, trying to drive a wedge between the RNC and Trump, and Priebus did a good job keeping that wedge away.

They were trying in some way to be able to say that Trump wasn’t in step with the RNC…so they could in some way weaken Trump’s position.

Priebus didn’t bite…ultimately despite Trump probably not being Priebus’ first pick, he didn’t pitch a fit, and supported Trump.

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-13 15:05:42

But, but, but he said…. something about a swamp being drained…

AND a free wall.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-13 15:12:25

If he really keeps his promise to deport criminal illegals and regain control of the border, he’ll be easily re-elected.

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-13 17:08:39

That, and as Ben has mentioned, if he cools off the whole Syrian and Yemen situations and stops the bombing and bloodshed, I will be a very happy camper.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 17:17:01

‘In a new interview with the Wall Street Journal, President-elect Donald Trump said that he is likely to end the US support of “moderate” Syrian rebel groups, saying that “we have no idea who these people are” and that the US needs to focus on defeating ISIS.’

‘The interview only briefly touched on foreign policy, but Trump echoed similar concerns about backing Syrian rebels in the past, saying that the defeat of Assad could lead to something even worse in the country, and today warning that backing the rebellion risks starting a fight with Syria and Russia.’

Turn all the guns on ISIS.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 17:21:32

Maybe if they showed footage like this on the nightly news, people would start asking more questions about these “moderate” Syrian rebel groups.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-13 20:23:16

Looks to me like the folks who thought they could control the entire world from the USA couldn’t overwhelm the dissent in the USA itself. It happened without a civil war. This is such a great time to be an American.

Comment by azdude
2016-11-13 14:47:37

We need margin calls!

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-13 14:55:39

Looks like Trump changed his mind on day 1’s repeal of O-care. Fooled again by the Oligarchs.

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-13 15:54:18

Looks nothing like.

Comment by 2banana
2016-11-13 15:54:48

Sad Pandas everywhere

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-14 01:55:57

They look to me like Sad Elephants.

Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-13 15:59:34

It might help if you got yourself some coloring books and Play-Doh.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 14:59:45

Time to consign globalism to the ash heap of history.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 15:11:41

“The political backdrop looks negative for globalization,” Bridgewater’s Jason Rotenberg and Jeff Amato wrote in a client note Friday, a copy of which was viewed by Business Insider. Bridgewater is the world’s biggest hedge fund firm with about $150 billion under management.’

“Globalisation, competition, internationalism are now firmly in the retreat,” hedge fund manager Crispin Odey said in a note to clients. “Inflation and protectionism promise a future which is not as kind to financial assets as QE and deflation has been.”

‘And even prior to Trump’s victory, strategists and analysts were signalling the significance of this “mega-trend.”

“If 2008 marked the trigger, this year is likely to be remembered for signaling the persistence of a new mega-trend: the peak, and likely unwind of globalization,” Deutsche Bank’s chief forex strategist George Saravelos said prior to the election.’

‘not as kind to financial assets as QE and deflation has been’

The bond market is saying something is up.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-13 15:15:10

“Globalisation, competition, internationalism are now firmly in the retreat,”


Do they mean how China and all the other net exporters practice protectionism at our expense and only buy from us that which they don’t produce themselves?

We can do without that “competition”

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 15:22:21

The globalists and their apologists mean “competition” in a race-to-the-bottom sense. They’d offshore our entire manufacturing base to Burma and North Korea if it meant the CEOs could further pad their bottom line.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-13 15:31:55

They already did thanks to NAFTA and wto agreements. The notion that it’s the ceo’s fault is The Donkey Narrative.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-11-13 17:10:19

Couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch of folks, really.

The best helmet sticker I’ve seen on this jobsite says “cheap labor isn’t skilled, and skilled labor isn’t cheap”

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-13 15:04:11

Give em Detroit: TURNBULL and Obama Government officials are racing to begin resettling refugees in the United States before the incoming Trump administration can halt the deal between the two countries.

Comment by 2banana
2016-11-13 15:58:20

Remember when Presidents consulted Congress?

Passed treaties in the Senate?

Now we have dictators like obama.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 16:42:53

Remember when we had a separation of powers, hard-boiled investigative reporters and editors unafraid to speak truth to power, regulators and enforcers devoted to serving the public interest, and political parties that stood up for the middle and working classes?

Me neither.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-13 15:19:04

Remember….. If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, it’s not affordable nor can you afford it.

Comment by azdude
2016-11-13 15:30:48

We need to extend more credit to the millenials!

It must be nice to be in a position to collect interest from money created of thin air. Seems like a great job to have.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-13 16:48:36

RIP Leon Russell.

Donk…. It’s all you.

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-13 17:12:44

I saw him with Mad Dogs and Englishmen at the Capitol Theater in Portchester, NY, back in the day.

Thanks for the tunes, Leon.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2016-11-13 20:47:30

This is no reflection on the tremendous talent of Leon Russell.

I think I posted about this here before. My brother and I saw him in Las Vegas in 2006 when my husband and I first moved here. Being a big fan, I was thrilled. It was a The Cannery North and filled with, by the look of crowd, pretty drunk/high elderly folk dressed like hippies. One woman was waving her cane (there were walkers in use in the crowd, too) in the air to the music. I was waiting for her to pull up her shirt. I thoroughly enjoyed his performance but looking around the audience I was weak with laughter. My brother was PO’d at me (back then he still thought he was 25.)

It was a great show and I’ve often thought of it - sorry I didn’t get to see him again.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 17:07:58

Are Soros rent-a-mobs counted in the BLS employment data?

Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-13 17:09:28

Just watched a few minutes of ABC World News Tonight, they showed some notebook paper signs over 2 water fountains, 1 said whites and the other said colored. They then go on quote the SPLC saying the acts of violence since the protests have started are something like 800 to 20 committed by Trump supporters as opposed to the election protesters. All I have seen besides the violence in the street protests was the high school girl who was attacked for having posted she was a Trump supporter, the dude who voted for Trump in Detroit who was dragged from his car and beaten before being dragged behind his car as his attackers stole it and the 2 notebook paper signs that read colored and whites that ABC World News Tonight showed.

Someone who is pretty powerful is trying to stir up some major sh#t.

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-13 17:21:51

Scott Foval is based out of Wisconsin, where the buses are from. Looks like they may have placed him with the Soros gang.

BTW, Soros himself is said by some to be senile at this point. However, he seems to have some pretty good lieutenants running the show.

Comment by Ben Jones
Comment by 2banana
2016-11-13 17:47:25

Fake. But accurate…

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 18:11:50

These arrested Soros Scum are some real prizes.

Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-13 19:43:00

“These arrested Soros Scum are some real prizes.”

I have met a lot of hard working productive blue and white collar people in my lifetime and none of them looked like that.

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Comment by 2banana
2016-11-13 17:46:01

The SPLC is a hack left wing organization.

Ignore everything they say.

They have zero credibility and Trump is going to zero out their government funding stream.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-11-13 17:59:48

Wheat Ridge, CO Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY

Comment by SW
2016-11-14 10:19:07

You’re crater posts don’t seem to add up, ever ?

Comment by Karen
2016-11-14 10:37:07

Oh, allow me to help you out with your confusion:

Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-14 11:48:05

That Wheat Ridge, CO page says that it has no data for median sales price.

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Comment by Karen
2016-11-14 12:15:51

Either nothing has sold or they are hiding the ugly data they don’t want us to see

Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-13 18:02:51

Boston boo-birds flip on Wanda Sykes after anti-Trump rant
Comedian’s Donald Trump take no laughing matter

Arthur Pollock, Owen Boss Sunday, November 13, 2016

Famed comedian Wanda Sykes gave the TD Garden crowd the middle finger as she walked off the stage last night after her rant about President-elect Donald Trump was met by a chorus of boos from some of the thousands who turned out for the 22nd annual Comics Come Home fundraiser.

Sykes, who was the fifth comic to take the stage at the benefit for The Cam Neely Foundation for Cancer Care, was roundly booed by many of those in attendance after the lesbian comic blasted the newly elected president for being a racist and a homophobe.

“I am certain this is not the first time we’ve elected a racist, sexist, homophobic president,” she said.

“(Expletive) you, (expletive) you, (expletive) you,” Sykes said to the audience members who were booing her set at the country’s longest-running comedy fundraiser.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-13 19:47:42

This is positive. Not a fan of Chris Christie or anyone who abuses his authority for political gain. I don’t believe for a second that Christie’s aides came up with the “Bridgegate” idea on their own, and it’s shameful that he’s letting his subordinates take the fall for something that he almost certainly directed or encouraged. Trump does not need to have people like this in his administration, even if he needed their support to get elected.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 19:52:36

Minute by minute bed wetting. He hasn’t even served one day in office. I’m about to start some serious deletions if this is all you have.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 19:55:08

Let’s just make it a ban.

Comment by SF 49'ers
2016-11-13 20:09:49

It ought to be evident to everyone here that there is a deliberate strategy to drive the blog off topic.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-13 20:33:45

Birds flyin’ high, you know how I feel
Sun in the sky, you know how I feel
Breeze driftin’ on by, you know how I feel
It’s a new dawn, it’s a new day, it’s a new life for me.
Yeah, it’s a new dawn, it’s a new day, it’s a new life for me, ooooooooh…
And I’m feelin’ good.

Fish in the sea, you know how I feel
River runnin’ free, you know how I feel
Blossom on the tree, you know how I feel
It’s a new dawn, it’s a new day, it’s a new life for me,
And I’m feelin’ good

Dragonfly out in the sun, you know what I mean, don’t you know,
Butterflies all havin’ fun, you know what I mean.
Sleep in peace when day is done: that’s what I mean,
And this old world is a new world and a bold world for me…

Stars when you shine, you know how I feel
Scent of the pine, you know how I feel
Yeah, freedom is mine, and I know how I feel..
It’s a new dawn, it’s a new day, it’s a new life for me
And I’m feelin’… good.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-13 21:15:04

You almost sound like a boater.

Comment by Leigh
2016-11-13 21:24:08


I come here off and on for years now.

I don’t recall you ever banning anyone before-bravo!


Comment by palmetto
2016-11-14 05:44:11

Yes, Ben bans people from time to time. I’ve been banned twice for behavior unbecoming and given some time to reflect on my sins, so to speak. It’s not like he doesn’t warn people. I, for example, am more or less under a potty-keyboard warning.

Ben permitted a certain amount of back and forth political bs to be posted on the blog for a time. But now the election is over.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-14 08:55:55

The election is over, the anti-establishment candidate has won, and his top two advisors are the RNC chairman and a Goldman Sachs alum. Nobody could have seen it coming!

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-14 09:28:21

He’s not going to moderate it, Prof.

Comment by Karen
2016-11-14 10:38:53

Speaking of bans, I haven’t seen Mr. Banker in a while. I never noticed him posting anything that was likely to bring on a ban, but maybe it was all moderated out before I saw it.

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-14 10:43:15

Jamie Dimon will help the people, not the banks!! The swamp is expanding.

PS. housing up 5.3% in Paso Robles ca this Yr.

Comment by Karen
2016-11-13 20:54:32

Betting the Farm and Losing: Banks Seek Collateral as Debts Rise

“Four years after record U.S. crop and farmland values boosted purchases of land and equipment, a global surplus has sent prices tumbling and farm income into the longest slump since 1977. The Federal Reserve says growers are borrowing more to pay bills, repayment rates are plunging, and the number of bankers requesting additional collateral is the highest in 25 years.”

“Farm income is down 42 percent from a record in 2013, government data show, and MetLife Agricultural Finance predicts farmland values will tumble 20 percent by 2018.”

It’s long, steep drop from the top of the roller coaster.

Comment by oxide
2016-11-14 09:38:09

I’d pay good money to watch someone re-po a combine.

Comment by Carl Morris
2016-11-14 19:48:37

I saw a reality show on guys that repo big boats and planes…shouldn’t be any more difficult than that. It’s a delicate operation and there’s always a chance of hostile armed security that doesn’t care if the law is on your side. Although I suppose with the combine you’re in unfriendly territory for a longer time since the neighbors and townfolk don’t like you either.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-14 02:00:43

How many times do hopes have to fade for another round of OPEC price fixing before the oil bulls finally throw in the towel?

Oil futures wobble as hopes fade for OPEC production cut
Published: Nov 14, 2016 2:12 a.m. ET
By Dan Strumpf

Oil futures tilted between gains and losses in Asia trading Monday, as traders continued to cast doubts on the odds of a production cut later this month by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at $43.26 a barrel, down 14 cents or less than 0.3%, in the Globex electronic session. January Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell 9 cents $44.72 a barrel.

Crude prices have been in retreat for weeks now in the lead-up to the Nov. 30 OPEC meeting, as doubts have intensified over the cartel’s ability to strike a deal. At the same time, some analysts have said that Donald Trump’s victory in last week’s U.S. election makes a deal even less likely given the possibility of a revitalized domestic energy industry.

“The new dynamic of a highly favorable legislative and most likely fiscal environment for the U.S. upstream and midstream is a parameter that OPEC members would have not have factored in when the proposed cut was introduced,” analysts at BMI Research wrote in a note to clients. “We believe they will take a ‘wait-and-see’ approach during this meeting until the U.S. energy policies become clearer in 2017.”

Comment by azdude
2016-11-14 05:21:46

Trump is gonna put people to work and get them off food stamps!

Comment by azdude
2016-11-14 05:28:34

Asset prices have to keep going up for keynesian economics to work.


Comment by azdude
2016-11-14 05:29:50


Comment by azdude
2016-11-14 05:35:26



Comment by new attitude
2016-11-14 10:45:36

I thought we got out of the Great Depression with gov spending. Its been done before.

Comment by FED Up
2016-11-14 13:22:48

World War III?

Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-14 06:04:11

Well I just watched the propaganda on CBS morning show about the “so called supermoon” which caused much higher tides. Of course CBS made sure eveyone who watched was sure Climate Change was the reason for the unusually high tide. (considering name change to MSM Lies)

5 keys to enjoying the closest supermoon

By Deborah Byrd in ASTRONOMY ESSENTIALS | November 12, 2016

The closest full moon since 1948 is coming up this weekend. When should you watch? What should you watch for? Are supermoons hype? Here’s all you need to know.

On November 14, 2016, the moon will be closer to Earth than it’s been since January 26, 1948. It’ll be a full moon and a supermoon. The moon won’t come this close again until November 25, 2034. That makes upcoming full moon the closest and largest supermoon in a period of 86 years! Here are five things you need to know.

Second, the moon’s gravity affects earthly tides, and a supermoon – full moon closest to Earth – pulls harder on Earth’s oceans than an ordinary full moon. That’s why supermoons create higher-than usual tides. Read on …

Supermoons can create super tides. Are supermoons hype? Just ask the oceans! All full moons bring larger-than-usual tides, called spring tides or, in some places, king tides.

Supermoons bring the highest, and lowest, tides of all.

If you live along a coastline, watch for high tides caused by the November 14 supermoon for a period of several days after November 14. These tides tend to follow the date of full moon by a day or two.

Will the high tides cause flooding? Probably not, unless a strong weather system moves into the coastline where you are. That was the case with the high supermoon tides of September, 2015. That supermoon – combined with an 18.6-year lunar cycle, and a tropical storm – caused high tides and some flooding on both sides of the Atlantic.

So keep an eye on the weather around November 14, if you live along the coast. Storms do have a large potential to accentuate high spring tides, especially those caused by supermoons.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-14 06:14:45

Greece, and the Eurozone, are still unfixed. Will “debt relief” translate into US taxpayers and the Fed making the banksters whole after they recklessly lent more billions to proven deadbeats and grifters?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-14 06:16:40

How long before the bond vigilantes force Yellen’s hand on hiking interest rates?

Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-14 07:02:29

Blocks Of Anti-Trump Protest Buses Caught On Tape

by Tyler Durden
Nov 13, 2016 11:53 PM

Earlier today we showed that, contrary to USA Today’s claims that the anti-Trump protests across the nation are “spontaneous, involving people from all walks of life”, according to Wikileaks documents at least two of the people profiled by USA Today have a history of being professional agitators for the Democratic party, whose task is to stir up popular protests and - in extreme cases - unleash rioting, such as the following clip showing the latest day of violent protests in Portland revealed.

Now, courtesy of a Zero Hedge reader, we have visual confirmation of how a substantial portion of these professional, paid protesters arrive at the site of the protest, in this case Chicago.

As our reader notes, “I have a video of 5 city blocks on the West side of Chicago lined with busses from Wisconsin (Badger Bus Lines) bringing in protestors. The Sears tower is visible in the background.”

The video was taken at 3:30pm on South Canal Street in Chicago on Saturday. As our reader points out, hundreds of the participants that took part in the downtown Chicago protests from November 12 were bused in using these vehicles. Other arrived

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-14 07:02:34

Globalism is having a crack-up. Looks like a possibility of Ireland leaving the EU:

Even in the US, there’s the Cal-exit movement. While I find it healthy on its face, I have my suspicions about the motives behind it. Something tells me it might be an attempt to create a sort of super-Monaco type of state. It would not surprise me to see much of its population shoved out to other places in the US, in an attempt to create an Elysium on earth for the “anointed” ones.

Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-14 07:13:53

Seven people arrested in anti-Trump protest identified

Comment by palmetto
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-14 10:39:56

How will China respond?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Sean Lowry at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, studying the impact of a 35 percent tariff imposed on Chinese tire imports by Washington in 2009, found that American consumers had to spend an extra $1.1 billion on tires, while the tariff protected no more than 1,200 jobs. About $900,000 for every job saved, in other words.

Comment by Hi-Z
2016-11-15 09:38:38

Figures don’t lie but
Liars can sure figure!

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-14 08:09:27

A beer a day keeps the doctor away.

“A pint of beer a day could help reduce the risk of having a stroke or developing cardiovascular disease, new research has found.”

Comment by tresho
2016-11-14 10:40:20

Just one, mind y’all.

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