November 16, 2016

Sellers Are Scrambling To Offload Their Real Estate

A report from the Orlando Sentinel in Florida. “Orlando neighborhoods saw a continued decline in for-sale signs last month, driving greater competition among buyers and holding prices steady at time of year when they usually soften, a new report shows. Debra Wingo, broker for the Selby Group, said rates have risen in the last week. She said an Orlando couple was shopping for houses as rates went from 3.5 percent to 4 percent in recent weeks, capping her buyers at $250,000. ‘A half point does make such a difference, especially for first-time buyers,’ Wingo said. ‘We thought we could go $265,000 to $270,000.’”

From MarketWatch on Texas. “I had to have one of the most difficult discussions a Realtor can have with his seller client last week. The conversation about reducing the price of their home and the discussion about the market leveling off and potentially dropping soon. I knew a turn in Dallas real estate was coming, but no seller wants to hear it. Some of the telltale signs were the emails at the end of September and the beginning of October from builders offering 5% commission if one of our buyers purchased their new builds. Normally it is 3%, or 4% if they are getting desperate.”

“The Texas Association of Realtors released its statewide Quarterly Housing Report, which stated there is a ‘cool off’ from the 5-year boom. If you watch any of the ‘Million Dollar Listings’ shows you will hear the same complaint. There is too much new construction and with too much supply, the prices drop. This oversupply is only true for high-end, new construction builds but this is a microcosm of a macrocosm. This is the beginning of a slow down.”

“A buyer’s market is looming and sellers are scrambling to offload their real estate before the buyer’s market becomes a reality. Conservative, long-term investors have been sidelined for years because capitalization rates were 5% or even less. It has been impossible to stomach the $1 million apartment complex that only brings in $30,000 after all expenses are paid. And yet, this is what is available in the current market. Buyers are starting to put their foot down because they are no longer worried about 6 other offers flying in.”

From Crain’s Chicago Business in Illinois. “As new luxury apartment towers in downtown Chicago fill up, they’re doing it at the expense of their older competitors. Landlords are starting to feel the impact of an historic building boom that is adding thousands of apartments to the downtown market. The occupancy rate at Class A buildings fell to 92.2 percent in the quarter, down from 94.8 percent in the second quarter and 93.7 percent in third-quarter 2015, according to the report. The Class A occupancy rate, which does not include buildings in their lease-up phase, hasn’t been that low since late 2009.”

“Downtown landlords may need to get used to a weaker market over the next couple of years as supply exceeds demand. Developers will complete a record 3,830 apartments in downtown Chicago this year; another 4,500 in 2017; followed by 4,200 in 2018, according to Appraisal Research. That represents a 39 percent increase in the number of downtown apartments. ‘Where we’re at right now is not surprising,’ said Appraisal Research Vice President Ron DeVries. ‘Next year is going to be a tough year. There are a lot of units coming online.’”

The Los Angeles Times on California. “With home prices and rents rising in Southern California, developers are busy building houses, condos and apartments – particularly in downtown Los Angeles, where a residential building boom is underway. So what does an unexpected Trump presidency mean for the housing market? Major cities across the country, particularly Los Angeles, are experiencing a building boom in their downtown areas — a construction wave that has primarily been focused on rental housing.”

“It’s been driven by an improving economy in those cities, low interest rates and the declining rate of home ownership. In downtown Los Angeles, there are more than 6,000 apartments under construction.”

“To the extent Trump’s policies help economic growth, the commercial real estate market will benefit, even if interest rates rise, said Stuart Gabriel, director of UCLA’s Ziman Center for Real Estate. But even before the election and the talk of easing the regulatory burden, real estate observers were starting to question how long the current construction boom in cities, including Los Angeles, could last given the pace of development. ‘Some of those markets may be coming close to overbuilt,’ Gabriel said.”

The Real Deal on New York. “It’s been a quiet week when it comes to discounts on Manhattan’s most expensive properties. The biggest price chop was at a co-op unit at the Carlyle Hotel. The four-bedroom apartment, which features enviable views of Central Park and Manhattan, was reduced from $19.7 million to $17.9 million, a discount of 9 percent. This Carlye Hotel co-op was first listed in April last year for $22.5 million. But it didn’t sell, and five months later it was removed from the market. The apartment was relisted in January for $19.7 million, but was taken down again in August. Last week, it reappeared on the market, this time with a slightly more subdued asking price of $17.9 million.”

“48 West 85th Street - Previous Price: $13 million, current Price: $12.2 million ($1,584 per square foot). Percentage Drop: 6 percent. Built in 1886 for the Lehman banking family, this townhouse has 16 rooms across 7,700 square feet. The property was first listed in September for $13 million, but was reduced by 9 percent last week.”

“George Vanderploeg, Steffen Kral and Charles Vanderploeg of Douglas Elliman have the listing. ‘We tested market briefly at the $13 million mark. We thought it was a little high but we wanted to make sure,’ George Vanderploeg told The Real Deal. ‘It’s like fishing, you change the bait once in awhile. It bugs me when brokers and owners don’t test the market, and they end up underselling the property.’”




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158 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-16 09:29:52

‘Some of the telltale signs were the emails at the end of September and the beginning of October from builders offering 5% commission if one of our buyers purchased their new builds. Normally it is 3%, or 4% if they are getting desperate.’

Minting new FB’s out of their recent customers.

‘Developers will complete a record 3,830 apartments in downtown Chicago this year; another 4,500 in 2017; followed by 4,200 in 2018, according to Appraisal Research.’

The absorption in this area has been something like 1,800 apartments a year.

Comment by taxpayers
2016-11-16 12:32:08

Chighettos 12′8% tax increase will kill it.
Do buyers not know it’s coming ?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 16:35:47

Every single Democrat-run municipality, without exception, will be raising property taxes to plug the gapping holes in their budget and keep the graft and patronage flowing to their donors and entitlement voters.

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 17:20:47

Posted: Nov 16, 2016 12:12 PM PST

By Associated Press

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) - California’s nonpartisan legislative analyst is forecasting a $2.8 billion budget surplus next year and says California should be able to weather a mild recession without major budget cuts over the next four years.

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Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-17 09:44:24

Every single Democrat-run municipality, without exception, will be raising property taxes to plug the gapping holes in their budget and keep the graft and patronage flowing to their donors and entitlement voters.

Got TABOR?

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Comment by Karen
2016-11-16 13:52:07

From the Market Watch article on Texas

Once the prices correct slightly, another massive influx of money will flow into the real estate market since there is still high demand.

It is very important to remember if you purchased a home in the last year or so, you are not done for. The trick to any real estate is to buy a desired home in a desired neighborhood and to hold it. If you plan to sell in the next 2-3 years, you may take a small loss but if you hold onto it for 5-7 years, you will potentially see your investment go up significantly.

They really don’t understand that the price increases are what has been causing the money to flow in. That demand has been due to speculation. And they still think that we will only have a little pause, and then up up and away again.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-16 15:29:02

And they still think that we will only have a little pause, and then up up and away again

Well … that’s kinda what happened last time, except that the pause was more than “a little”. But the bubble came roaring back.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-16 09:34:27

‘Retailers balking at elevated asking rents have finally sent them sliding back in Manhattan as building owners have decided to whip up interest with lower prices. According to the new Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY) report, areas seeing declining retail rents include Times Square, Herald Square, the Flatiron and Meatpacking districts,meatpacking Soho, and even Harlem.’

“Six months ago, the brokers were of mixed opinions,” said Mike Slattery, senior vice president of research for REBNY. “They sensed the retail pricing was galloping ahead, and as the market softened a bit, the prices looked harder to achieve. There is no indication that tourism is slowing, but just that prices were too high.”

‘In the Flatiron’s Broadway corridor between 14th and 23rd streets, average asking rents of $390 per square foot are down 23 percent from last fall’s $510 and range from $350 to $430. REBNY blames that drop in the leasing of one high rent store.’

‘Herald Square’s average of $836 per square foot is down 11 percent year-over-year to $445 per square foot, with a range of $391 to $1,000. Times Square has dropped 9 percent from last fall’s $2,390 per square foot to $2,179 with a range of $2,000 to $3,000 per square foot for ground-floor rents.’

Comment by 2banana
2016-11-16 09:42:14

$3,000 per square foot per month in rents?

How does ANY retail business make a profit?

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-16 10:21:35

Restaurants are closing left and right. And it’s not just New York City. This is an example of how new money can make things more expensive but it doesn’t create wealth. I was thinking about the farm post before last nights. In Illinois it was reported that cash rents on an acre were $150, but the farmer was only taking in $50. It said “the farmer is paying $100 per acre for the right to drag his equipment across it.” And that the landlord was only making around 6% at that. Something will have to give and obviously, returns on farmland are going to plummet.

Comment by Cynical Cynosure
2016-11-16 11:15:22

Most restaurants in Manhattan (except that those that cater to the tippy-top) are in panic-mode.

There are “happy hours” and freebies and whatevers. The rents simply cannot be met.

You know it’s bad when a Starbucks in a popular place in a popular neighborhood with tons of foot traffic pulled the plug.

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Comment by scdave
2016-11-16 11:37:55

except that those that cater to the tippy-top ??

You mean like the “21 Club” ??

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 11:38:25

The only night I see packed restaurants are on Taco Tuesdays. .99 cent carnitas tacos and free chips.

 
Comment by Cynical Cynosure
2016-11-16 12:16:07

No, the stuff on the Upper East Side or Tribeca doesn’t have the same issues as the rest of the island.

Where the 1% live.

Even the Upper West Side (= nouveau riche), not doing so great.

BTW, asking rents have dropped about 4-5% already.

 
Comment by Cynical Cynosure
2016-11-16 12:22:45

Also, this is truly irrelevant to this blog but you go to places like “21 Club” to see and be seen. The food is truly execrable — they know it, the patrons who are the 1% know it, everyone knows it. It’s not even a secret.

It’s very sad when the 1% eat bad food just so that they can hob-nob with their peers. Even funnier that places like that can get away with it.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 12:50:46

It’s very sad when the 1% eat bad food just so that they can hob-nob with their peers.

Rich people in NYC can eat food cooked by some of the world’s top chefs. I wouldn’t shed any tears if they choose stuff that isn’t so great.

 
Comment by Cynical Cynosure
2016-11-16 13:05:45

True, true, it’s not much of a sacrifice to go there once a month when the return on that “sacrifice” is truly spectacular.

However, I do remark on the comedy that these places can get away with it. You’d think that they’d have the power to force these places to have better food but clearly not.

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-11-16 13:29:47

How’s the #SpiritCooking, though? There are some 1%ers heavy into that stuff, from what I hear.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 13:42:00

The other funny thing is when those famous, expensive restaurants appear in the news because they’ve been cited by the health department for having unsanitary conditions in the kitchen.

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-11-16 14:03:12

What about Comet Pizza in DC? I hear it’s kind of unsanitary.

 
Comment by Mugsy
2016-11-16 14:07:06

Stepdad was a beer delivery driver from 60’s-80’s and he told me that 21 and Le Cirq were some of the dirtiest kitchens he’d ever seen.

 
Comment by mcbain!
2016-11-16 16:33:01

Did someone mention comet pizza? Some new developments in the podesta pedo story - they’ve removed the pedo symbol from their online logo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8YdSvyp89E

rabbit hole just goes deeper and deeper. And they’ve somehow convinced/paid idiot college students to try and block highways at night. Yeah that’ll work out well!

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 16:42:19

The oligarchy must hate the Internet and alternative media with a passion. They spent billions buying up every MSM media outlet in the country to disseminate The Narrative and consign any news that reflected unfavorably on the elites and their agenda to the memory hole - but then those uppity proles do an end-run around their captured media toadies with the real news and real truth the oligarchy tries to hard to suppress.

“In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” — George Orwell

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 17:51:16

In this case, it not’s real, just bizarre slander. Fortunately for the targets of the slander, no reasonable person believes it.

 
 
Comment by scdave
2016-11-16 11:36:36

returns on farmland are going to plummet ??

If we get into some trade wars its bankruptcy time…Even if you don’t own the land, the cost of the equipment is significant…

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-16 12:10:10

‘Small retail stores across the country are facing unprecedented pressures that go beyond the normal ebb and flow. High rents have finally cracked a crop of retailers that had adapted and weathered the intrusion of the internet and chain stores thus far—think shoe stores, fabric stores, electronics stores.’

“Most of them made many adjustments and continued to thrive in their neighborhood,” said Ruth Messinger, former New York City council member and small business advocate. “Then they got hit by a rent increase that they just couldn’t afford.”

‘The losses are being felt in cities nationally and globally. “In cities as diverse as Oakland and Nashville, Milwaukee and Portland, Maine, retail rents have shot up by double-digit percentages over the last year alone,” according to an April report by the nonprofit Institute for Local Self-Reliance.’

‘And if those pressures weren’t enough, consider the behemoth that is taking a bite from every pie—Amazon. Mitchell said the nation has lost more than 100,000 independent retailers in the last 15 years, and the trend is concerning.

“Independent retailers contribute much more to the health of our local economy and communities than chain stores or Amazon do,” she said. “Studies have shown that for every dollar that you spend in a locally owned business, that dollar creates two to three times as much economic impact than if you spend it at a national chain.”

‘Alex Cohen, a broker with commercial real estate firm Core, said the 2008 economic downturn had a dramatic impact on retail, but that was cyclical. Because of a drop off in consumer demand, many retailers had to slash their prices and many went out of business. Now, it is different.’

“This is a new phenomena,” Cohen said. “We’re not in a down part of the cycle right now, the economy is very strong. New York continues to be a strong tourism market.”

‘Cohen said the vacancy rate in SoHo has gone from 10 to 20 percent over the last 18 months. “That is driven by the strength of e-commerce, the preferences of people to purchase online … and the challenges that retailers have faced maintaining profitable stores with very high rents.”

‘There are many ways in which government policy tilts the playing field against small retailers, said Mitchell. Amazon, for example, opened three data centers in Ohio last month, which created 125 jobs. The project received state incentives to the tune of an estimated $81 million over 15 years, including $77 million for the sales-tax exemption and $4 million for payroll tax credits—which works out to $648,000 per job—according to a 2015 Bloomberg report.’

“Independent retailers never get anything like that. They go to city hall and say, ‘I want to open a second location, will you give me a big tax break?’ and they’ll be laughed out the door and told, ‘This is a free market, you’ve got to learn to compete,’” Mitchell said.’

 
Comment by Karen
2016-11-16 13:30:10

People blame online shopping for the problems retail stores are experiencing, but it’s a bit more complicated than that.

“One of the main reasons behind store closures is that affluent people who once lived by malls and shopping centers have moved away. And in their place, people with less buying power have moved in, resulting in fewer purchases and eventual closures.”

https://www.sellerlabs.com/blog/ecommerce-brick-and-mortar-symbiotic-relationship/

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 14:14:07

I just spent $75 in the Amazon Pantry to save a trip to the store. Some of it arrived the next day. Time is money.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-16 15:37:56

‘This year’s long string of restaurant closings in Arlington has people wondering what’s happening to the local restaurant business.’

‘There are a number of factors potentially at play: oversaturation of restaurants, a culling of less-compelling or outdated restaurant concepts, high rent, a national “restaurant recession” and even perhaps a local downturn in “disposable income” spending due to election-related anxiety.’

 
Comment by AuntiFed, why don't you love me?
2016-11-16 15:54:56

We’ve been in a trade war for 25 years, but now we are going to finally start winning it.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 16:43:21

Or at least acknowledge that we’ve been getting a raw deal.

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 17:01:53

Apple shareholders are not complaining.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mugsy
2016-11-16 14:03:57

Was in my hometown of Queens this past week. I love the place but at this point it is an over priced shite hole. Insane asking prices and rents. Lots of people stumbling around LIC and Astoria and I was wondering where all of the “luxury” is? Manhattan is even worse and the sad thing is that on Sunday’s you used to be able to drive or walk around the city and enjoy the feeling of relative quiet but now the streets are packed with wall to wall tourists. Chelsea, Midtown and CP are insane with bodies on the street. Who in the world wants to live in a place where you can’t get a break at least one day a week?

Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 15:46:28

NYC needs to convince Hollywood to make some new movies like Midnight Cowboy and Taxi Driver.

 
Comment by 2banana
2016-11-16 16:45:05

Don’t worry.

Caracas, Venezuela was the MAJOR tourist destination of South America back in the day.

Not so many tourists there today.

Progressives and liberals are good for that.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 16:52:48

That was the story 40 years ago. Then things got a lot better in every American city in the 1990s.

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Comment by tj
2016-11-16 10:20:18

just saw that trump has fired ALL lobbyists!

this is a first. i never in my life thought i’d see this. not from ANY politician. that’s impressive.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-17 01:48:09

Who is left in DC for him to work with?

Comment by tj
2016-11-17 06:56:48

i think he’s trying to hire people that aren’t from DC.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-16 10:40:21

‘In downtown Los Angeles, there are more than 6,000 apartments under construction’

Almost all of them luxury priced. It’s been reported there is a 15% vacancy rate in DTLA.

Comment by azdude
2016-11-16 11:20:27

trump supporters were tired of all the non producers riding the coattails of their work and production.

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 12:30:27

Is Jamie Dimon a “producer?” Who bailed him out?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 16:46:32

The Fed and the Republicrat duopoly bailed out Jamie Dimon and his ilk. 95% of the electorate sanctioned the bailout by voting for Obama, McCain, and Romney in 2008 and 2012.

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Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 12:06:53

I was just in downtown LA, same day as the trump protests. Amazing how many homeless there are living in tents under the overpasses. Feels like the end of the world down there, trash everywhere. Worse than SF and that is bad too. Why would anyone want to live there?

Comment by scdave
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 13:17:41
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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 16:48:01

True, but they make good lifetime DNC entitlement voters.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 17:00:06

Very few probably vote.

 
 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 12:42:28

People who live under overpasses don’t have a lot of other options.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-16 13:10:43

That’s life in California my friend.

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Comment by rms
2016-11-16 14:34:53

Rather than pay high rents they prefer to spend that money on alcohol and drugs.

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Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-16 15:40:56

Why would anyone want to live there?

When asked, Californians invariably say “the weather”

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 15:44:19

Yosemite is not in Los Angeles.
Tahoe
Napa
Santa Barbara
San Luis Obispo
Montery

all best of the best in the world for quality of life and good people.

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Comment by AuntiFed, why don't you love me?
2016-11-16 15:59:56

Whatever dude. I’ve been to all those places, and I gotta say your wrong.

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 16:48:21

best places to live - if you can afford it and like to play outside.

Boulder, Ketchum, Jackson and Santa Fe are nice too.

 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-11-16 17:54:54

But they have weather

 
 
Comment by rms
2016-11-16 20:55:45

Just spent a week in San Jose, CA. The weather was [very] comfortable with daytime temps of 67 to 73 degrees and evenings in the mid fifties. However, the traffic has increased substantially since my previous visit two years earlier. But that hasn’t slowed the developers as new apartment and condo buildings are popping-up everywhere. I did see lots of banners offering several months free rent to new tenants, but I’m sure there’s a lease agreement to sign. Two condo towers of 28-floors each are planned for Santa Clara street between fourth and fifth across the street from the new courthouse. The planning commission doesn’t care about congestion though… just tax revenue.

Didn’t have a chance to visit the Central Coast where the standard of living is much higher.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-16 10:43:15

’stated there is a ‘cool off’ from the 5-year boom. If you watch any of the ‘Million Dollar Listings’ shows you will hear the same complaint. There is too much new construction…’

These TV flipping shows are a two or three months old by the time they air.

‘Conservative, long-term investors have been sidelined for years because capitalization rates were 5% or even less. It has been impossible to stomach the $1 million apartment complex that only brings in $30,000 after all expenses are paid. And yet, this is what is available in the current market. Buyers are starting to put their foot down because they are no longer worried about 6 other offers flying in.’

And there’s 50,000 apartments on the way in greater Dallas.

Comment by dandroidz
2016-11-16 11:25:34

Just heard a radio ad on my drive home a couple days ago, “Join our seminar, learn how to make money in retail estate using our 4 step plan!!” Or something like that. I just had to roll my eyes.

Also a coworker of mine recent got approved for a loan, and the bank basically said “good luck finding something in that price”. And the one place they did find needed EXTENSIVE work, and wasn’t in a great area, and as they showed up to even gawk at it, the realtor said it had 5 offers. Still some really stupid people out there…

Comment by Sean
2016-11-16 11:33:38

5 offers huh?

Comment by Cynical Cynosure
2016-11-16 12:47:05

8-)

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-16 15:53:02

lol

 
 
Comment by the spider monkey
2016-11-16 11:33:49

“And there’s 50,000 apartments on the way in greater Dallas.”

Remember a few weeks ago, the video from China of the masses of buyers smashing down the doors of some new apartment building and flooding the entire place in a sea of humanity. And then we see this week in the big property expo in Beijing, they are actively marketing Texas to China.

Just put them all on an airplane, and fly them to Dallas. Each will buy 4-5 units at a pop. Problem solved.

Comment by dandroidz
2016-11-16 11:42:22

It’s a good thing we sent them over billions of $$$$ each year over the last two decades. Reaping what we sow.

Comment by the spider monkey
2016-11-16 11:56:31

Yeah. We buy their poison trinkets, and they buy our flimsy apartments. Perfect match. :)

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Comment by azdude
2016-11-16 10:54:52

” make them more dependent on fiat.”

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-16 11:21:47

“Sellers Are Scrambling To Offload Their Real Estate”

Run for cover before you get lambasted by the collapsing bubble!!!

Comment by dandroidz
2016-11-16 11:45:58

I’ve noticed properties systematically going up for sale around my town slowly but surely since the Spring. It seems by now, an entire block has been bought and sold over the last 8 months. Lots of people must be seeing the sale prices and figuring to cash out now and retire down to FL.

 
 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 12:33:10

How happy will everyone be when the great credit crash of 2017 is finally here and the job losses pile up? Scale of 1-10 . Think of all your unemployed family members needed a couch to sleep on–good times!

Comment by scdave
2016-11-16 12:42:34

How happy will everyone be when the great credit crash of 2017 ??

Bring it on…Obama had to deal with it…Lets see how Trump does…

Comment by Michael Viking
2016-11-16 13:28:55

He didn’t deal with it at all. He papered over it and moved his lips a lot about peddling fiction.

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-16 15:50:02

Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha, the protests in Greece against Obama are massive and very violent:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-15/violent-clashes-erupt-between-greek-police-and-demonstrators-protesting-obamas-visit

What goes around, comes around. Bwa-ha-ha-ha-HAH!

Doing the jobs Americans just never did.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 16:50:57
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-16 13:08:26

The job losses already occurred my friend.

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 14:34:20

4.9% unemployment

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-16 14:55:19

Record joblessness my friend. Record high joblessness.

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Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 15:08:23

jobs all over the place in CA, TX, NY…. if you have a college degree and no job, you are choosing not to work.
If you have no skills and no education, that is your mom’s problem.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-16 15:55:44

And falling prices my friend. Falling prices.

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-16 15:01:58

That’s the number collecting UI. The other 10 million or so are also unemployed, in the sense that they are no longer among the employed.

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Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 15:35:55

Where do the statistics come from?

Early each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor announces the total number of employed and unemployed people in the United States for the previous month, along with many characteristics about them. These figures, particularly the unemployment rate—which tells you the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed—receive wide coverage in the media.

Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the government uses the number of people collecting unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under state or federal government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 15:38:14

also, from the same page:

What are the basic concepts of employment and unemployment?
The basic concepts involved in identifying the employed and unemployed are quite simple:

People with jobs are employed.

People who are jobless, looking for a job, and available for work are unemployed.

The labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed.

People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-16 17:39:28

The others have found other ways to survive I suppose. 10 million of them.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Vineet
2016-11-16 14:16:48

How happy will everyone be when the great credit crash of 2017 is finally here and the job losses pile up?”

Good question. I think trump supporters will weather it better than Obama supporters.

Having to do with how they earn a living.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 14:46:35

A lot of Trump voters are retired, so the increase in unemployment wouldn’t affect them as much. It’s also possible that most people who work in the REIC are GOP.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-16 15:01:43

Are you sure?

Labor Force Participation Rate Falls To 38 Year Low; Joblessness At Record High

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/americans-not-labor-force-participation-rate-risesdrops

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Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 15:42:04

According to you, things are so bad, they can’t get any worse.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-16 15:51:01

Pull yourself out of the gutter and cheer up and remember….. Nothing accelerates the economy and creates jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.

 
Comment by azdude
2016-11-16 16:01:17

He seems to want a depression so he can buy up stuff on the cheap.

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-11-16 16:14:16

Falls Church, VA Housing Prices Crater 19% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/falls-church-va-22046/home-values/

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-16 16:16:36

Remember Poet….. Rising borrowing rates to dramatically higher and acceptable levels accelerates the economy and creates jobs like nothing else can.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 16:20:13

You mean he wants the depression we’re already in to get worse.

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 17:55:42

Remember Poet….. Rising borrowing rates to dramatically higher and acceptable levels accelerates the economy and creates jobs like nothing else can.

In bizarro world.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-16 18:27:21

And it enrages you.

 
 
 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 15:06:44

Red states are less educated, I think the college grad liberals in tech do much better.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 15:44:03

That’s about 5% of the population. People with an MBA from one of the top 10 business schools do much better.

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Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 16:16:35

50% of the people in my town have a bachelor’s degree or higher.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 16:22:49

Yeah, but only 30% of the jobs, at most, require a bachelor’s or more.

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 16:45:58

“require?”

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 16:54:44

Yes, require is the word. Some jobs require a degree and other don’t. This can’t be news to you.

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-11-16 17:39:38

Are James Alefantis and David Brock still a thing? Or nah?

https://photos.smugmug.com/2009-photos/Media-Matters-Party/i-nNrP5Bc/2/L/David%20Brock%20and%20James%20Alefantis-L.jpg

I hear tell they’ve got plenty of jobs if you’re under 15.

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 17:46:56

you get the pay you deserve

 
 
Comment by AuntiFed, why don't you love me?
2016-11-16 16:18:14

Blue states have more illiterates.

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Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 16:34:30

The worst illiteracy is mostly in the poor Southern states, which are mostly Republican. However, California is third worst when it comes to high school graduation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_educational_attainment

 
Comment by Auntie Fed, why don't you love me?
2016-11-16 16:59:52

The worst illiteracy is among immigrants from other countries. Are illegal immigrants even counted by your Wikipedia article?

 
Comment by Auntie Fed, why don't you love me?
2016-11-16 17:04:10

I see your article counts illegals (if they participate), but it doesn’t measure illiteracy.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 17:04:22

The paragraph claims that they’re included.

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-11-16 17:41:17
 
 
 
 
 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 12:38:24

2015 ending june 15 - Colorado collected almost $70 million in marijuana taxes during that time, nearly double the $42 million collected from alcohol taxes.

Wonder how CA will do?

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 16:26:20

I’ll guess $210 million.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 16:52:28

How much did they spend on increased outlays, i.e. emergency room visits, due to the riffraff who are flooding into the state for legal marijuana?

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 17:24:29

no riffraff, no worries. Same crew, just taxed now.

 
 
 
Comment by Sean
2016-11-16 13:05:39

http://www.texasmonthly.com/issue/november-2015/

Check out an old cover of Texas Monthly, just in case you want a good laugh.

This was November 2015, just a few months ago.

Comment by azdude
2016-11-16 14:30:42

Its amazing how they keep going back to inflating stock and home prices to generate wealth.

It really tells you there isnt much real wealth being created from work.

 
 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 14:52:03

Posted: Nov 16, 2016 12:12 PM PST

By Associated Press

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) - California’s nonpartisan legislative analyst is forecasting a $2.8 billion budget surplus next year and says California should be able to weather a mild recession without major budget cuts over the next four years.

darn liberals!

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-11-16 15:38:12

Citrus Park, FL Housing Prices Crater 7% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/citrus-park-fl/home-values/

Comment by azdude
2016-11-16 15:59:32

im sorry you missed an 8 year housing boom. lmfao

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-16 18:23:56

Remember….. Nothing accelerates the economy and creates jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.

 
 
 
Comment by AuntiFed, why don't you love me?
2016-11-16 15:42:24

I’m glad Trump won. We can finally get Americans to start earning the money they need to pay American-style prices. Nevertheless, crater.

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 16:14:57

So you want more gov, and that gov to make sure people get a raise? I dont think the GOP agrees.

Comment by azdude
2016-11-16 16:23:03

“its a big club, and u aint in it.”

 
Comment by Auntie Fed, why don't you love me?
2016-11-16 16:23:22

That sure is a lot of gibberish and nonsense for one single comment.

 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 16:28:04

The beginning of every war is like opening a door into a dark room. One never knows what is hidden in the darkness.

Comment by azdude
2016-11-16 16:41:59

“an oz of gold is worth a years worth of groceries.”

 
Comment by Auntie Fed, why don't you love me?
2016-11-16 17:01:54

What do you mean?

Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 17:06:49

We can only guess what will happen once Trump’s trade war begins.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 18:24:08

You will still be annoying and irrelevant, trade war or not.

 
Comment by Auntie Fed, why don't you love me?
2016-11-16 20:21:15

MightyMike: We are already in a trade war. That’s why our GDP is barely over 1%, even with < 5% unemployment. Trump is not starting anything, but he will finish it.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 21:12:31

Of course, this just leads to the question the definition of trade war, which is a boring discussion. Let’s just say that whatever Trump does could have some beneficial effects. There may also be unpleasantness for many Americans. We won’t know until we’re in the middle of it.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-16 16:26:02

‘The Trump Effect: Negative-Yielding Debt Plummets ‘

‘Investors have watched warily at how negative-yielding bonds might perform in a market downdraft. Now they know the answer.’

Paying people to borrow your money never made any sense to me.

Comment by azdude
2016-11-16 16:31:40

“savers will be herded into a digital pen.”

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-16 17:13:25

Liquidate that junk, get out of hoc and hold onto every dollar you’ve got. You’ll thank me later.

Comment by azdude
2016-11-16 18:21:21

that was your same advice 8 years ago. didnt turn out to swell my friend. How is your natty light tonight?

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-16 18:34:18

Stomp your feet. Go ahead.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by azdude
2016-11-16 16:34:45

can a central bank ever need a bailout? If so who is there to do it?

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 17:08:45

Why would foreign “investors” dump US debt that Yellen the Felon is going to print (inflate) away?

Oh, right….

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-16/saudis-china-dump-treasuries-foreign-central-banks-liquidate-record-375-billion-us-p

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-11-16 17:17:18

Camarillo, CA Housing Prices Crater 5% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/camarillo-ca/home-values/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 17:28:27

The globalists are naturally hailing Angela Merkel as “the new leader of the free world.” Retch….

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/angela-merkel-branded-new-leader-free-world-trump-brexit-crises-preoccupy-western-powers-a7420281.html

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 17:29:53

Falling Yuan

Chinese homebuyers defy capital controls as local prices surge. They have added TX to the list. Spend the Yuan before it is found out to be worthless.

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 17:40:05

The buying spree has defied Chinese government efforts to restrict capital outflows and shows little sign of slowing after an estimated $15 billion of overseas real estate purchases in the first half. For cities in the cross-hairs, the challenge is to balance the economic benefits of Chinese demand against the risk that rising home prices spur a public backlash.

“The Chinese have managed to accumulate very large amounts of wealth, and the opportunities to deploy that capital in their own market are somewhat restricted,” said Richard Barkham, the London-based chief global economist at CBRE Group Inc., the world’s largest commercial property brokerage. “China has more than a billion people. Personally, I think we have just seen a trickle.”

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 17:42:00

Yep. At what point will the PBOC be forced to either burn up billions in their rapidly-dwindling dollar reserves to defend the Yuan, or do nothing as it crashes to its true value (after China’s truly insane binge of monetary easing)?

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/usdcny?mod=MW_story_quote

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 17:33:10

Oh dear. “Buy to Let” (rent) crackdown will “end the dreams” of middle class “investors” who planned to to forever ride the unsustainable housing bubble while collecting rents from those priced out of ever owning their own home. Forgive my misty eyes….

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/16/buy-to-let-crackdown-will-end-the-dreams-of-middle-class-investo/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 17:34:46

The next wave of the the populist revolt against the globalist oligarchs: Italy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/16/when-europes-house-of-cards-falls-down-italy-may-be-buried-benea/

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 17:46:12

The Fed will only “tighten” if and when the bond vigilantes force Yellen’s hand. Otherwise it will never voluntarily abandon its most lucrative swindles against the 99%: QE-to-Infinity and ZIRP, soon to be NIRP if Yellen gets her way.

http://www.businessinsider.com/dollar-shortage-and-fed-tightening-2016-11

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 17:58:09

Darn history:

“In 1928, on the eve of the Great Depression, Herbert Hoover ran on a platform that promised higher tariffs on agricultural products to America’s suffering farmers. Having won the presidency and a comfortable Republican majority in Congress, Hoover proceeded to pass, with the help of Republican senators, the Smoot-Hawley Act, which was signed into effect in 1930 and raised tariffs on more than 20,000 products to levels not seen before in US trade history.”

This led some of the US’s biggest trade partners to also raise their tariffs against American goods in retaliation. Furthermore, limits on capital flows and movement of people also put a drag on economic growth. The end result contributed to the disaster of the Great Depression.

Comment by azdude
2016-11-16 18:22:23

beggar thy neighbor?

 
Comment by Hi-Z
2016-11-17 09:30:53

So the stock market crash of 1929 had nothing to do with the GD?

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 18:07:03

Countries who vote for collectivist kleptocrats, aka “socialism,” deserve everything they get.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-16/as-the-u-s-smolders-venezuela-burns

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 18:17:30

again, not a socialist country. Use your Google.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 19:51:47

My Google-Fu is stronger than your Google-Fu. There are tons of references to Venezuela being socialist, including the ravings of Chavez and Maduro, not to mention their pals the Castro brothers of Cuba.

 
Comment by Hi-Z
2016-11-17 09:28:10

Again, yes it is.

 
 
Comment by the spider monkey
2016-11-16 18:41:11

“The country’s current president, Nicolas Maduro (who said that Chavez once appeared to him in the form of a bird)”

LOL

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 18:13:39
 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-16 18:14:34

I remember Trumpsters saying Trump will surround himself with the best people! Uhg! now what?

Comment by MightyMike
2016-11-16 18:24:13

If a revolving door is installed in the cabinet room and people are getting hired and fired on a regular basis, some of them will be good people.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-16 18:18:51

Pay no heed to that deflating commercial bubble. If there was a problem, CNBC or the WSJ would’ve alerted us by now.

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/11/16/wholl-get-hit-by-fallout-from-the-11-trillion-commercial-property-bubble-in-the-us/

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-16 19:54:07

Soros’s Formula for Killing America: A Brief Guide, for Americans

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MeM_l5mkyYc

 
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