I Can’t Carry This Anymore. Should I Sell?
A report from MENAFN-AFP on China. “Chinese household debt has risen at an ‘alarming’ pace as property values have soared, analysts say, raising the risk that a real estate downturn could send shockwaves through the world’s second largest economy. Loose credit and changing habits have rapidly transformed the country’s famously loan-averse consumers into enthusiastic borrowers. the debt owed by households in the world’s second largest economy has surged from 28 percent of GDP to more than 40 percent in the past five years. The share of household loans to overall lending hit 67.5 percent in the third quarter of 2016, more than twice the share of the year before. ‘The notion that Chinese people do not like to borrow is clearly outdated,’ said Chen Long of Gavekal Dragonomics.”
“But this surge has raised fears that a sharp drop in property prices would cause many new loans to go bad, causing a domino effect on interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices that ‘could turn out to be a global macro event,’ ANZ analysts said in a recent note. Banks are also driving the phenomenon, Andrew Polk of Medley Global Advisors told AFP. ‘Banks have been pushing people to buy houses because they need to make loans,’ he said, as corporate borrowing has dried up.”
From Bloomberg on the UK. “U.K. real estate prices may be dropping at a much faster pace than official reports indicate, according to the Irish agency that manages property loans acquired from bailed-out banks. Earlier this month, Stephen Vernon, chairman of Dublin-based Green Property, said London’s real estate market is ‘tanking by the day.’”
The Review Online on South Africa. “While the importance of pricing a property correctly in order to sell it within a reasonable amount of time has been stressed countless times, the current buyer’s market coupled with a sluggish economy has made correctly pricing a property paramount to the sale happening at all, never mind within a reasonable amount of time, according to Debbie Justus-Ferns, divisional manager of Renprop Residential Sales.”
“‘Testing the market in order to ascertain what buyers would potentially be prepared to pay is not advisable for any seller right now,’ she says. ‘This strategy will often put any prospective buyers off as they have other properties to choose from. As a result, an overpriced property will just end up promoting the purchase of a comparative or similar property that is priced correctly.’”
From The Australian. “Brisbane’s apartment construction boom has spurred a ‘flight to quality’ as renters move from old suburban flats into new apartments, in a phenomenon set to be watched by the Reserve Bank. Brisbane renters are exploiting the more than 5200 new apartments built in the first nine months of the year to vacate suburbs between 5km and 15km from the central business district. The rollout of an expected 13,000 more apartments over the next 18 months in inner-city Brisbane, along with 16,000 more in Melbourne’s inner suburbs in two years, is being monitored by the Reserve Bank as the key areas for potential future oversupply.”
“In order to keep up sales and rents, developers are offering a range of incentives to get people into their apartments. Increasingly, short-term rental guarantees of up to 5 per cent gross are being advertised, while others will throw in furniture packages, pay body corporate rates or shell out for furnishings. A completed four-townhouse development in Morningside offered a Kia Picanto car to the first buyer to go unconditional. Ray White Bulimba agent Jared Candlin said the bonus car promotion was ‘a way to get people’s attention’ in the crowded marketplace. ‘But with what is going on with the amount (of units) available, people might just miss them because they are looking at so many.’”
The Calgary Sun in Canada. “Close to 40% of Calgary’s available rental listings are unoccupied, according to a local property management company which says the weak market has become a major source of financial stress for small, private landlords. ‘I have never seen it this grim before,’ said Shamon Kureshi, CEO of Hope Street Real Estate Corporation. ‘I have never seen this level of difficulty for landlords trying to find a tenant.’”
“Kureshi said big companies are far better positioned to manage the declining market conditions than ‘mom and pop’ landlords. ‘We’re talking about the people who are renting out their basement suite to make ends meet or the family who’s maybe invested in a second house that they’re renting out for the purpose of retirement savings,’ he said. ‘I’m probably getting two, three, sometimes five calls a day from these people saying, ‘I can’t carry this anymore. Should I sell?’”
“Rebecca Yarmoloy — who together with her husband bought her first rental suite in 2013 and now owns a total of four properties in Calgary — said the past year has been challenging, with each of the suites vacant at times, occasionally for up to three months in a row. She said they now allow pets in their suites, something they never would have considered before but have been doing to make their properties more appealing to renters.”
“‘When we first bought we were getting top dollar for all of our suites,’ Yarmoloy said. ‘We’ve definitely taken a big pay cut on all of them, as well as struggled to find tenants. We’ve had to reduce all of our rents substantially, and we’ve also just had trouble finding good people.’”
A cautionary note from Peter Schiff.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/25/how-donald-trumps-economic-plans-will-lead-the-fed-to-reverse-course-on-policy-schiff.html
They have to do more QE to buy more bonds and keep all the bubbles going.
People will suffer if they dont.
but if the money is spent here on American workers actually building and producing something, isn’t that what is really needed?
if he can change the mentality of government and contract workers to getting it done on time and under budget that would be a tectonic shift in how we approach budget deficits.
wilbur ross buying bankrupt companies and turning them around…sounds like a plan for the country
next make it easy to fire government workers the end of lifetime employment, there are probably a million people on waiting lists who want a chance to do a great job, but then you know what the usual suspects like sharpton would say if it was implemented.
Boots !
My hood was flat for 2016
Now w rate bump
???
No one is making predictions
Almost nothing for sale in my hood.
Residents of hood are stabilizing from trashy flophouses to renovated and occupied by owner+renter.
Zestimates going up but I don’t believe them.
So far 23% equity compared to purchase price; compared to fake Zestimate it’s more.
Dunno about that craterism Donk. Squealtor says theres 9000 for sale and 40% of those have had price reductions.
Who Likes The Taste Of Crow??
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTOgqEY_BJs
These never get old.
Those folks are like the so called financial experts.
Live from Butthurtistan!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCU7I7CSc8c
Hard to watch after the 5 minute mark. Everybody was so sure how things were going to turn out.
Somewhere, Sweet William is stamping his little feet and raging in the rain like Mad King Lear, accusing all Trump supporters of being neo-fascists.
Wasn’t he the guy telling us Trump was going to throw the election to Screech? And he’d get all pissed off if you didn’t agree.
I like Bill, but he lives in his own reality, made to order. He called all Trump supporters Brownshirts, while seemingly blind to the fact that Crooked Hillary embodied all of the things he purported to be against as he waxed loquacious about his ideal Libertarian Nirvana that never existed and never will, not on this planet.
Poor Bile. Poor poor Bile.
And if you didn’t buy and use Bitcoin, you were a toady of Yellen the Felon.
We wuz statists. Bad, evil statists.
It’s a little horrifying to me, considering how much time I spend on this blog, how quickly I forget about some folks after they disappear. Took me a moment to remember who Bill was.
‘how quickly I forget about some folks after they disappear’
You get used to it. I’ve seen thousands in 11 years.
But Bill had been a bit of a regular for a long time.
Maybe an illegal driving a beater ran over him while he was riding his bike.
What would be “funny” about that is that all his bitcoins would be lost in the ether, unless he had his block chain codes written in his will. Maybe his gold too, since he allegedly kept it hidden. Which reminds me of an anecdote: Some years ago a friend of mine bought a used house in the San Diego area. A year or two after moving in he discovered a few bags full of silver coins in the attic. Even though silver at the time was worth only a few dollars per ounce, he said that the stash was worth a few grand.
The coins were stashed in bags with the name of a local coin dealer that went out of business many years before. Perhaps someone hid them there and told no one, and took their location to the grave. Maybe 20 years from now some lucky soul will find wherever Bill has hidden his gold coins.
Or maybe Bill is just fine and decided to do other things with his time, like bang Muslim girls or something?
all his bitcoins would be lost in the ether,
“Lost” bitcoin is less lost than misplaced gold; since the buying-power of the entire blockchain should be essentially unchanged, one could look at it more like donating your share to everyone else who is holding any. It’s just a matter of time before the community realizes that your fraction is lost.
I’m still disturbed that these folks actually posted the video (or allowed someone else to post the video) of themselves wailing and writhing on the floor. Doesn’t do much for their image, ya know? Not to mention that their houses are a mess. Seriously they couldn’t pick up the laundry?
“Doesn’t do much for their image, ya know?”
You expecting pride from this gaggle?
They had such high hopes of collecting endless freebies in exchange for voting straight D.
Rosie O’Donnell is some kind of anti-indicator (or maybe the anti-Christ?) Everything in the universe is actually the opposite of what she thinks.
Like Dan that used to post here. Anyone could have make a fortune betting the opposite of what Dan thought.
He went away enraged. Now he reads and seethes with maddening infuriation in silence.
I think Dan died or was incapacitated. He was too adamant about posting to just go away.
ABQ Dan? Was he the one always posting about how smart the Chinese are and how little personal debt they have? The article linked to above about the Chinese reminded me of him.
And oil to the moon.
Dan did say we wouldn’t see that screen name again if some prediction or other of his didn’t come true.
I remember way back a long term bond guy , ~2007
Lived out in the desert in CA I think. Hope he sold.
gold:
https://youtu.be/KTOgqEY_BJs
oops, meant the 3′ 8″ mark:
https://youtu.be/KTOgqEY_BJs?t=3m8s
the way she laughs is a nice balance to all the crying I saw on the other videos
Trump gets the last laugh… Wait for it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pg78_3E1b0M
Trump’s Revenge #8 : Bill Maher
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIPNayC2fpg
Who likes the taste of CROW?
I think Bill Maher likes the taste of something else. He sure has an obsession with other men’s privates.
None of these people will ever live this down.
The insane hot-money flows in China driven by limitless “stimulus” are pushing up commodities to record highs, even while real economies worldwide are stagnating. Something has got to give.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-27/these-charts-show-how-china-s-ball-of-money-is-rolling-back-to-commodities
Getting eaten by the alligator…
And you won’t be able to sell without bringing lots of money to the table.
Next comes foreclosure and playing the victim card.
—–
‘I’m probably getting two, three, sometimes five calls a day from these people saying, ‘I can’t carry this anymore. Should I sell?’”
Dupont Circle-Washington, DC Housing Prices Crater 15% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/dupont-circle-washington-dc/home-values/
LOL you picked out some good ones.
‘I have never seen it this grim before,’ — says the guy from “Hope Street” Real Estate Corp. My sides. They need some more hope.
“Medley Global Advisors told AFP. ‘Banks have been pushing people to buy houses because they need to make loans”
Aww, the poor banks! They need to make their loans! What are they going to do if they can’t make their loans! We should all support our banks and take out a nice big loan for Christmas.
‘Banks have been pushing people to buy houses because they need to make loans,’ he said, as corporate borrowing has dried up’
As I’ve said before, this return to the purposeful bubble factory in China is ominous because they used to talk about reform and cleansing. So obviously this is all they have left.
“Gold and Silver Prices Plunge”
https://news.metal.com/newscontent/100711846/gold-and-silver-prices-plunge-us-dollar-and-equities-values-surge
An increasingly valuable dollar- CHECK
Rising borrowing costs- CHECK
Falling prices- CHECK
What’s not to like my friends?
If the credit disappears sh@t will hit the fan.
You sound scared.
I sense a great disturbance in the force, as if a million speculators and hedgies cried out at once and were suddenly silenced.
‘The Federal Reserve could be in for a bumpy ride as resurgent Republicans led by President-elect Donald Trump look to make a big mark on the central bank.“We knew there was going to be limited progress under Barack Obama’s administration,” said Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.), who authored a broad Fed reform bill in the last Congress. “Now, with a partner at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue that’s interested in moving the needle, frankly we’d be dumb not to try to pursue this.”
‘Republican lawmakers are expected to dust off host of bills that would curb the central bank, ranging from tougher oversight to fundamental changes over how the Fed deploys its powerful tools to steer the economy.’
‘Trump, who publicly criticized the bank during the presidential campaign, could break the deadlock. “The widespread expectation both inside and outside the Fed was that this would never get through the Senate and if it did, the president would veto it,” said David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution. “The election has changed that … the odds have risen.”
This makes Mike bigly sad.
Congress can rein in the feds with a President?
I thought that was unpossible.
And obama had a filibuster proof senate and a super majority in the house and did nothing?
Except pass obamacare?
I’d be scared if I was on the hook for bunch of non-performing rapidly depreciating assets.
“She said they now allow pets in their suites, something they never would have considered before but have been doing to make their properties more appealing to renters.”
Maybe she should try putting in some granite counter tops. Stainless steel appliances. A wine closet. Free kitty litter.
Lower the price.
There is nothing price wont fix!
They’re not gonna give it away.
I love seeing renters in the catbird seat.
If you use borrowed money to live beyond your means, you are a victim.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/26/four-charts-show-britons-living-beyond-means/
I stubbed my toe this morning. I was a victim of the chair leg. WAAAHHHHH!
You should sue, Palmy.
Household Deficit… is that an economic indicator?
“britons-living-beyond-means”
This doesn’t surprise me. Even though wages there are lower while prices and taxes are higher, everyone seems to have a new car (and cars cost about 50% more than here)
But…but…stress tests!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-27/eight-italian-banks-may-fail-if-renzi-loses-referendum
crushing.housing.losses.
Italy is too big to be bailed out.
https://www.ft.com/content/e588ea6a-b49f-11e6-961e-a1acd97f622d
Our Keynesian central planners and central bankers assure us that debt-based growth is the pathway to permanent prosperity.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/27/chinas-property-frenzy-and-surging-debt-raises-red-flag-for-economy
Close to 40% of Calgary’s available rental listings are unoccupied, according to a local property management company which says the weak market has become a major source of financial stress for small, private landlords. ‘I have never seen it this grim before,’ said Shamon Kureshi, CEO of Hope Street Real Estate Corporation. ‘I have never seen this level of difficulty for landlords trying to find a tenant.’”
It’s easy to find a tenant. Just drop your rental price until the right tenant signs a lease.
Why Trump has not appointed me to his cabinet as Economic Tsar is beyond me….
We’re talking about the people who are renting out their basement suite to make ends meet or the family who’s maybe invested in a second house that they’re renting out for the purpose of retirement savings,’ he said.
Forgive my misty eyes at the travails of these amateur landlords. When they get foreclosed on and true price discovery reimposes itself on the asset bubbles blown by the Fed and central bankers, affordable housing for the masses will finally return.
thats what is happening all over nyc, Asian re agents are telling prospective buyers (Asian ) its ok to make a another apartment in the basement attic garage to cover the huge mortgage,
ive left some emails and messages to the housing dept to try and get inspectors to pose as buyers and get a heads up on illegal conversions.
‘Brisbane renters are exploiting the more than 5200 new apartments built in the first nine months of the year to vacate suburbs…The rollout of an expected 13,000 more apartments over the next 18 months in inner-city Brisbane, along with 16,000 more in Melbourne’s inner suburbs in two years’
Brisbane: the land of 100% Chinese owned towers. Built for speculators, and when they default, it’s a second sale and foreigners aren’t allowed to buy secondary housing there. Not that it matters because no one will want them.
You can see the tidal wave coming…
And some are picking up shells on the beach…
‘Testing the market in order to ascertain what buyers would potentially be prepared to pay is not advisable for any seller right now,’ she says. ‘This strategy will often put any prospective buyers off as they have other properties to choose from. As a result, an overpriced property will just end up promoting the purchase of a comparative or similar property that is priced correctly.’
South Africa was one of the hottest housing markets on the planet just a few years ago.
Chasing the market down?
How very American…
So I’ve been digging around some on this multifamily structure thing. Somethings not making sense at all. I’m not sure who the actual customer who is buying the building but as far as I can tell based on limited information available, someone doesn’t know what they’re doing. They’re paying huge sums for what are basic contracts and traditional bid packages.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/27/new-york-university-grandmas-spare-room-housing-costs
That’s a great idea. Some of these precious snowflakes could use the wisdom their elders have acquired over a lifetime, and the oldsters might gain some youthful companionship. I can see some great friendships developing from this initiative.
Surprised no one created an app yet to commercialize on this situation……
BTW, is anyone else having trouble tonight with the HBB’s reply box text editor’s control?
Tor doesn’t have those options.
Racist homophobic deplorables…
Socialists spend your money. Their money is off limits…
—
However, some students suggested that NYU could use its $3.5bn endowment to cut the costs faced by students. Schall said NYU raised $147m for financial aid in the last academic year, and its endowment per student was much lower than other Ivy League schools.
Frank Zappa on The Steve Allen Show March 4, 1963.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MewcnFl_6Y
“Politics is the business wing of entertainment” — Frank Zappa
Italy is too big to bail out. If the can-kicking runs out of road, the Eurozone house of cards is coming down. And taking ours with it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-28/global-stocks-slide-italian-bank-worries-dollar-dips-trumpflation-takes-back-seat
E-commerce is killing brick & mortar. And tapped-out ‘Murican consumers are looking for deep discounts. The “Trump effect” may have run up against its first serious check.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/11/27/black-friday-weekend-woes-end-trump-effect/
Once again, the banksters and their political puppets are warning the sky will fall if a vote doesn’t go their way. It didn’t happen for BREXIT, and it didn’t happen for Trump. We’ll see about Italy, which in any event is a house of cards along with the rest of the PIIGS.
http://www.businessinsider.com/italy-banks-collapse-renzi-referendum-2016-11
Oh dear. What happens when the ECB’s extend-and-pretend reaches the end of the line?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-27/trump-and-draghi-may-bring-return-european-solvency-crisis-barclays
Italians who voted for Establishment political parties are not so keen on globalism once they get to experience the joys of open borders and unrestricted Third World migration, aided and abetted by their own government.
http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=55891
extraordinary.equity. party
But…but…Draghi said the Eurozone financial crisis was contained after he pumped trillions in printing press stimulus into the banks that caused the crisis in the first place.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-28/energy-producers-drag-europe-stocks-lower-after-weekly-advance
Oh dear. Is the “Trump effect” running up against something called “fiscal reality”? Methinks the long-deferred financial reckoning day just slouched a little closer.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-stocks-pull-back-sharply-2016-11-28
u guys need to accept wall street as your masters.
I know you are joking, but when you think about it, why? Their work product sucks. At this point, what do any of these people produce? A distorted, manipulated market for distorted, manipulated, bloated “companies”. They produce nothing of value, and in fact their “product” brings nothing but damage and destruction, ruins lives.
When you think about it, who really needs “Wall Street”? The world would go on without it, quite nicely, actually. It’s based on nothing more than “money” created out of thin air, and around this fantasy an entire industry has been created that has no value at best and does great damage, at worst.
Other than IPOs and bond offerings, they produce nothing.
There is also societal value in orderly markets; I think the exchanges are worth keeping, but they should be regulated like a utility.
Italy’s Minister Of Interior: Surrender Your Homes To Migrants Or Face Jail
Chris Menahan
InformationLiberation
Nov. 27, 2016
Just two weeks ago, a shocking video went viral which showed an 80-year-old Italian businessman named Luigi Fogli being forced by the state to house African migrants in his hotel.
Today, we learn the plan is slated to go into hyperdrive come December, though the government is keeping it secret so as not to sway an upcoming referendum which could lead to the ousting of their current pro-migrant invasion prime minister.
It will be done, explains Il Giornale, beginning only as of December 4 or after a consultation referendum, in order to avoid allowing protests by citizens to influence the outcome of the vote.
https://www.informationliberation.com/?id=55891
That’s some real Soviet commie schitt right there.
Although I’d be delighted if they commandeered George Clooney’s Como mansion and packed it with as many “migrants” as they could.
I’d be delighted if they commandeered George Clooney’s Como mansion
“First, they came for the rich—and I wasn’t rich, so I said nothing.”
What are these Italian knuckle heads trying to accomplish?
The RageCages are full again.
If you use Facebook and buy stuff on Amazon, and yet you’re “outraged” at what is going on with the election and the propaganda peddled by WaPo, you might be suffering from cognitive dissonance.
You have a choice: either drop the outrage, or drop Facebook and Amazon. Who really needs Facebook? Plenty of other choices for “social media”. And there isn’t anything on Amazon you can’t buy elsewhere on line. It might cost a little more, maybe take a little longer to get to you, but so what? The money you put in Amazon’s pocket is being used to destroy your life and that of others.
This. I give my money to locally owned Tattered Cover Books instead.
‘The ‘final nail in the coffin’ may be coming for the Federal Reserve’s freedom’
‘Elga Bartsch, the chief European economist at Morgan Stanley, said in the bank’s outlook for 2017 that one more financial cataclysm could be all that it takes for independence to end.’
‘Post-crisis central bank policies have left the financial system potentially vulnerable to a political backlash.’
“A prolonged period of exceptionally low interest rates has weighed on financial intermediaries’ business models,” said the Morgan Stanley economist. “Hence, financial stability issues – ranging from a credit crunch to shortfalls in pension benefits or life insurance payments to a hard landing in risk asset markets (notably housing) – could turn out to be final nail in the coffin of central bank independence.”
You’re right Elga, this situation will be steaming on Yellen’s lap. Elga. Hmmm, are you some kinda commie Elga?
Oh, Jeebus Crikey, just end this stupid institution altogether.
What’s the story with Bill?
I haven’t seen him post lately and I don’t read the blog every day.
Falling prices.
Maybe an unlicensed, uninsured illegal ran over him while he was riding his bicycle?
When Trump won, Sweet William’s defective logic circuits slipped into overload and he likely had a complete breakdown. I’m guessing he’s wandering the streets harranging hapless passers-by about how 61 million cultish Brownshits in thrall to their new demigod have imposed a fascist dictator to rule over us like some Roman Emperor.