The Housing Bubble

A report from the Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “The epic building boom that has added thousands of luxury housing units in the Boston area may have peaked, as a report to be released Tuesday by an influential foundation suggests the region has run out of customers willing to shell out huge sums in monthly rents. The Boston Foundation says the number of permits for new housing units issued in Eastern Massachusetts is expected to fall by nearly 20 percent this year, the first decline since the most recent surge of construction began in 2011. Housing specialists attribute the drop-off to the higher end of the housing market, where units can rent for $3,000 a month or more in and around Boston.”

“‘We’ve satisfied very-high-end demand, and so the number of luxury buildings is slowing down,’ said Barry Bluestone, a housing economist at Northeastern University and author of the Boston Foundation report. ‘We haven’t seen much [building for] the middle and lower ends of the market.’”

The Madison Park Times in Washington. “The year 2016 is one for the record books. Home values saw double-digit appreciation in 2016, with the median home price in King County up 14.6 percent, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. It’s not just Seattle that’s experiencing soaring home prices. All across Washington, home prices are rising faster than in any state in the country. Amidst all the record-setting positive news, there is reason for caution on horizon. The latest jobs estimates suggest the economy may be slowing down.”

“‘What concerns us is the fact that three of the five key industries appear to be applying the brakes,’ according to Seattlebusinessmag.com. ‘Aerospace and information (including software) contributed 2,000 jobs during the three-month period, but construction, wholesale and retail trade, as well as professional and business services, which have a combined workforce of 689,800, added nothing.’”

“Metrostudy’s second quarter 2016 survey of the Seattle housing market shows that the first signs of the slowdown have begun to show up: slowing job growth along with a dramatic change in migration numbers. ‘The state’s in-migration has hit negative numbers for the first time in over four years,’ said Todd Britsch, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Seattle region. Anecdotally, I’m seeing fewer bidding wars. More surprising, I’m noting a number of price reductions on listed homes.”

The North Bay Business Journal in California. “The residential real estate market in Marin, Napa and Sonoma counties is decelerating and showing signs of fatigue after five consecutive years of growth, according to a new survey of market data. Single-family home and condominium sales in the three North Bay counties seem to have plateaued, and the forecast for 2017 is for home and condo sales to remain flat with a chance to actually decline in some micromarkets, according to Terra Firma Global Partners, a residential real estate services firm with nine North Bay offices.”

“During the first nine months of this year, 15 percent fewer homes and condos traded ownership in Marin County, 5.3 percent fewer in Sonoma and 9.6 percent fewer sales occurred in Napa, compared with the first nine months of last year. 2017 could be a good year to start ‘taking some chips off the table,’ particularly if the goal is to downsize in the next couple of years, according to Terra Firma Global Partners senior associates Jaime Pera in Marin. ‘Homes that are overpriced with inflexible sellers will sit and likely end up selling for less than if they had been priced correctly in the first place,’ Pera wrote.”

The Real Deal on New York. “This week, the biggest price reduction on a luxury property was at the 740 Park Avenue duplex where a young Jacqueline Bouvier lived with her parents in the 1930s. Last week, the Rosario Candela-designed duplex was slashed from $32.5 million to $29.5 million, a reduction of 9 percent. In total, four properties in the over-$10 million market were discounted by more than 5 percent in the period from Nov. 11 through Nov. 21, according to data provided by StreetEasy.”

“740 Park Avenue, 6/7A: The owner of this palatial duplex, Hedge fund manager David Ganek, had high hopes that this property would fetch top dollar. In 2014, not long after Ganek dropped $28 million on a condominium in Soho, the financier and his novelist wife Danielle listed the duplex for $44 million. But apparently buyers weren’t moved by the co-op’s links to Jackie O, at least not enough to shell out $44 million. In April, the price was dropped to $32.5 million. It was reduced again last week, and is now asking $29.5 million.”

“20 West 53rd Street, Apartment 47: This four-bedroom pad was listed in December 2014 for $27 million. In August, the listing was taken from Corcoran and given to Douglas Elliman, and the asking price was slashed to $23.8 million. Last week, the property was discounted again, this time by 8 percent. The apartment, which spans 4,557 square feet, is now asking $22 million.”

“980 Fifth Avenue, apartment 18A: First listed back in April for $12.9 million, the property has already received two price reductions. The current asking price is $11.2 million, a 6 percent reduction from its previous asking price of $11.9 million. Property records shows Romain Hatchuel to be the current owner. Hatchuel, a native of France, paid $7.5 million for the apartment in 2011.”