The End Of A Decade-Long Boom Sounded Alarm Bells
A report from News.com.au in Australia. “Last year their house prices were skyrocketing — now they’ve come back down to earth. Growth in property prices across a range of once booming Sydney suburbs has recently ground to a halt after hitting an affordability ceiling. The slowdown was most evident in Parramatta, where the median house price fell 14 per cent over the last three months after having nearly doubled between 2011 and 2015. Adjacent suburb Rosehill, where the average price of a house went from $470,000 in 2011 to $1 million in early 2016, recorded a 7 per cent drop in median price, Core Logic data showed.”
“Other suburbs in the region, including Granville and Harris Park had median price falls of over 4 per cent, reversing growth of about 60 per cent over the five years prior. Drops in prices were not restricted just to Sydney’s west. Inner west suburb Dulwich Hill’s median house price fell 8 per cent, while neighbour Summer Hill had a 5 per cent drop. St George suburb Kogarah’s went back 4 per cent. Median prices had grown more than 50 per cent in these areas over the last five years.”
“Starr Partners CEO Douglas Driscoll said slowdowns in price growth were inevitable in some areas because the supply of housing was slowly returning to normal. ‘Prices had been growing aggressively, especially last year, because there wasn’t much housing going around,’ Mr Driscoll said. ‘Supply and demand has become a lot more even since then.’”
News Corp Australia. “Latest Real Estate Institute of Queensland rental vacancy rates reveal the inner-city ring has remained relatively consistent – moving from 3.4 per cent to 3.7 per cent from the June to September quarters. REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella said inner-city landlords, who were particularly sensitive to the current question of oversupply, had been extremely competitive with rents to lure tenants from middle-ring suburbs.”
“Place Projects business development manager Sophie Smith said that in addition to price cutting, landlords were offering incentives such as two week’s free rent to secure a tenant. Some were also cutting rents to keep tenants from moving out at the end of a lease.”
From ABC News. “WA Housing Minister Brendon Grylls says policies requiring prospective homebuyers to cough up deposits of 30 per cent in mining towns across Australia are a ‘hangover’ from the mining boom. The end of a decade-long investment boom sounded alarm bells for banks, with ANZ Banking Group the first of Australia’s traditional big four banks to enforce the policy in June last year. More than 40 postcodes across Australia are affected by ANZ’s policy, including Western Australia’s iron ore hub of Port Hedland, where potential buyers would require $135,000 for a deposit on an average-priced house. ”
“The ABC has spoken with community leaders in Kambalda who say times are tough but there has not been a mass exodus from the town. The average house price in Kambalda East has fallen from $100,000 to $55,000 in a year, while there has been a similar fall in Kambalda West, where the median price has tumbled from $140,000 to $95,000.”
“Ray White Kambalda principal Cheryl Davis, the town’s only real estate agent, told the ABC that times were tough, but there had not been a mass exodus from the town. ‘The Commonwealth Bank has been our saviour, they’re about the only bank that will deal out here,’ she said.”
Your Investment Property Magazine. “The demand for housing in Australia’s mining areas has declined significantly due to sinking commodity prices and dwindling mining investments. Median prices in Port Hedland peaked at $925,000 in June 2013 and sales volumes peaked at 402 in July 2006. Current median prices have fallen to $390,000 (-58% lower than peak), and current sales are 128 (-68% below peak).”
“Median prices in Karratha peaked at $815,000 in October 2010 and sales volumes peaked at 511 in March 2005. Current median prices have fallen drastically to $362,980 (-55% lower than peak), and current sales are 235 (-54% below peak). Median prices in Mackay peaked at $435,000 in June 2013 and sales volumes peaked at 3,264 in April 2004. Current median prices have fallen to $345,000 (-21% lower than peak) and current sales are 1,045 (-68% below peak).”
The Chinchilla News. “If those unacquainted with history are doomed to repeat it, then communities unacquainted to oil or gas booms are inevitably doomed to similar fates. Hoping to save towns from being swept up in the frenzy which accompanies sudden booms, researchers from the University of Queensland’s Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining (CSRM) have been analysing statistical evidence and interviews from ‘boom towns’ to try and assist communities to plan ahead and get locals ‘on the same page.’”
“Dr Kathy Witt explained ordinarily occurring patterns were ’sped up’ in boom-times, such as the sudden, dramatic, spike in the Chinchilla housing market prompting a lot of people to sell at the same time. ‘You can argue that one day Chinchilla may have got a KFC or Woolworths anyway, it just got sped up. So we can say it acted as a catalyst for change.. that’s brought on diversity that wasn’t there before. But there is a new normal, so it certainly has changed some of the (town’s) core characteristics,’ she said.”
“Local grazier, Joe Hill said the trend which had been apparent in the Chinchilla housing market was reflected outside town on the properties too, but while houses had been filling up again in more recent months, farm houses remained empty. ‘Around where I am, within a 50km radius, there’s roughly 12 homes that are not being lived in,’ Mr Hill said. ‘Families have moved out after the gas companies have bought them out and the local community is just disintegrating.’”
But..but…our Keynesian central planners said that debt-fueled “growth” was the key to permanent prosperity!
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/11/28/things-are-getting-serious-in-mexicos-corporate-debt-crisis/
It amazes me that Corporate Mexico borrowed so much in dollars.Of course, when those loans were taken out the peso was 13 to a USD. Now it’s about 20 to a USD.
Did Mexico’s captains of industry not think this might happen?
Of course, they borrowed in dollars because the interest rates were no doubt lower, so they figured they’s saved money, until the principal, when converted to pesos, increased by 50%+.
Aussie building approvals crash 25%. No one could’ve seen this coming.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-29/aussie-housing-market-collapses-building-approvals-crash-25
Looks like a bunch of different tax “benefits” that Congress passed during the last bubble may not get extended again this year. Things like the mortgage insurance deduction may go away, and the tax liability for mortgage forgiveness. The guy who wrote this article seems skeptical they are going to extend again.
http://therealdeal.com/2016/11/28/congress-could-play-grinch-this-christmas-for-homeowners/
For the crusher guy:
“The failure to pass so-called “extenders” would be especially painful for large numbers of underwater owners who are unable to complete short sales, loan modifications or foreclosures before year end. Many of them could face crushing tax demands from the IRS — or be forced to declare insolvency or file for bankruptcy.”
crushing.tax.demands (lol)
Just heard on the radio a story of a local woman who was having to sell her condo because property taxes had increased too much for her. Ouch!
ABSOLUTE BEST DONALD TRUMP INSULTS COMPILATION
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yELV238wr-k
I think this is the best video compilation so far.
3:30 Wolf Blitzer: “Why do you keep attacking Megyn Kelly?”
Trump: “Because every night on her show, she does negative hits on me. And frankly, if she didn’t, her ratings would drop down far lower than yours.”
18:17 “I know Hillary met my campaign manager, and I got the chance to meet the people who are working so hard to get her elected. There they are — the heads of NBC, CNN, CBS, ABC. There’s the New York Times right over there, and the Washington Post.”
The Al Smith dinner is absolutely my favorite Trump take-down. That was one ballsy move, right in the pusses of NY society.
If I was the head of Catholic Charities, I’d be sweating bullets right now wondering if the billions of subsidies were still going to come in. One thing’s for sure, their refugee racket has already dried up.
Catholic Charities: the gift that keeps on giving. They should be held criminally and civilly liable when their charges commit crimes against American citizens.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/11/29/somali-refugee-resettled-texas-2014/
The 2nd best part of the Al Smith dinner… watching Maria in the background. hehe.
doug casey: “The dollar has been strong only because it’s liquid.”
how does ‘liquidity’ make the dollar strong? he couldn’t adequately defend that claim in a hundred years.
he’s touting gold. gold may indeed go up, but not for the reasons he thinks.
he’s been advising people to buy gold for many years. but he doesn’t understand what gives the dollar value, so how can he be accurate, much less timely?
i haven’t seen anyone consistently time gold correctly. he certainly hasn’t.
ABSOLUTE BEST DONALD TRUMP INSULTS COMPILATION
So entertaining.
And he’s already kicking tail!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/carrier-reaches-deal-with-trump-to-keep-about-1-000-u-s-jobs
Unfortunately, this may be a bad precedent. What was in this “deal?” What did Trump promise in exchange for those 1000 jobs? Government subsidies? Tax breaks? Promises to loosen regulations?
Private companies LOVE this type of wheeling and dealing. All they need to do is make an announcement to move jobs somewhere else, even if they don’t really intend to move the jobs. They then allow the job “losses” to hit the news to create a little outrage. Then Trump will step in to make another deal, which usually involves government spending in some form. End result is that the people keep the jobs that they weren’t really going to lose, Trump strokes his ego, Trump gets votes, and government money goes into private pockets. Meanwhile, the national debt clock ticks up another notch.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Trump’s pro-worker policies, IF Congress will let him carry them out. But the above deals have no *net* gain for the country as a whole. The good thing about Trump is that he doesn’t like to be shown up like that. Once he realizes that he’s being hornswaggled, he’s going to go apesh!t on those companies.
‘Carrier said earlier this year it would move the furnace plant’s operations, eliminating 1,400 U.S. jobs, to keep production costs competitive. The decision garnered national notice after a worker’s cell-phone video of the announcement to employees took off on social media and generated criticism of Carrier parent United Technologies Corp., which is also a major defense contractor that supplies engines for U.S. fighter jets.’
He probably just told them no more jets. 1,400 families just got the best Christmas present possible.
“the above deals have no *net* gain for the country”
How can you say that when you don’t know what the “above deals” are?
Just my own opinion, but if Carrier told its employees the plant was moving to Mexico, pretty good chance that is exactly what they intended to do.
I don’t disagree, that this is what happened *this time.* But once word gets out that there are deals to be had in getting gov perks in exchange for keeping jobs (intended or not), other companies might try to follow suit.
Meanwhile, I hope Ben is right. Trump already has a nice bit of leverage over these MIC behemoths. He doesn’t need to make extra concessions on top.
‘Trump already has a nice bit of leverage’
It’s not his it’s ours. We’ve always had it. Obama has had it available for 8 years and he hasn’t stopped one factory from leaving. This is what you can do when you start acting like a nation state and stop sacrificing jobs on the false alter of globalism.
Notice Mexico didn’t say boo. What can they say? The trade with them is so unbalanced we could pull 30-50% of it away and they’d still be better off.
China does this sort of thing all along. Where ever they decide it’s in their interest to protect an industry they just say nope. This is what I was talking about the other day about the low hanging fruit of dismantling globalism. Sure it’ll be tougher on Mexico and China but they can pound sand! And Mike, you go ahead and fight this and watch the Democrats lose power for 50 years. Everybody in DC should get behind this.
We also don’t know what his VP did, being governor of the state.
Such things have always had the element of a poker game. If this is symbolic of what is to come, ante up and deal.
Thanks Ben. And the SJW hits just keep coming. Last night PBS ran a feature on how bad things will be in Mexico if Delphi car parts pulls out of Mexico:
Transcript here: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/trumps-trade-policy-affect-jobs-u-s-abroad/
In the feature, a Mexican economist says that if Trump shut down the car parts factories in Mexico, then all of his voters in Michigan and Ohio would have no parts to assemble and they would all be out of work. Like it’s all going to happen at once. And there’s a Mexican food truck mom who walks on down to the Western Union every few days to pick up the money from her daughter who’s working in the US. (no word on whether the daughter was legal)
more BIG gov telling private bizz what they can and can not do.
Trump probably gave them tax breaks, with our $
a) If giving a private business tax breaks is “big government telling private business what they can and cannot do” — bring it on!
b) Allowing businesses or individuals to KEEP THEIR OWN MONEY THEY RIGHTFULLY EARNED is not “giving them our $”. It’s their money!
From above “therealdeal.com” article:
“On a $200,000 home, they said, moderate income buyers are now able to deduct between $600 and $1,000 using this provision — money that is often important to their family budgets.”
Wish article authors could discern between tax deductions and tax credits.
I approve of this move by congress. If you can’t afford to pay taxes on a gift from your fellow taxpayers after overextending yourself, too bad. And if not being able to write off PMI is a major hardship, you shouldn’t own a house.
I never knew that before about the loan-modification “forgiveness” tax credit (or whatever the right term is). It sounds like if you had bought a house for $400K, and now it’s only worth $200K, and you convince the bank to restructure it and forgive $200K — you’re still on the hook to pay ordinary income tax on that $200K of forgiven debt.
That would instantly bankrupt most people, considering they only have $1000 in savings in the bank, etc.
Everybody has to pay the piper some day.
Had a family member just walk away from an investment house. Difference between mortgage and marked-down bank value was attributed as ordinary income. IRS will allow for payment plans, etc. I didn’t weep for said family member since I didn’t agree with him walking away from the mortgage in the first place. If you can’t afford it, don’t buy it.
People require consequences to learn from their mistakes.
“But….but….but….it was worth less than when I bought it, so I just walked away. I’m hoping to get a principle reduction, but that damn (insert current President) won’t help me at all.”
I’ve heard these stories before. Never feel bad for these folks, just simply ask them “When you bought this property, what kind of gun was put to your head?”
Of course, the obvious solution for United Technologies is to spin off its non-military divisions into a separate corporation. That would generate a bunch of fees for some Wall Street banks. But they’ll probably wait a few years before making that move.
meant to post this under oxide’s statement about Carrier
Actually, a spin-off might be a breath of fresh air. New company means a new set of admin jobs. You know, all those “redundant” jobs that get eliminated in a merger.
Especially if it’s an investment house! Does this short-sale tax break actually apply to spec housing?
And if not being able to write off PMI is a major hardship, you shouldn’t own a house.
+100
Not to mention that if you are “middle income” buying a $200,000 house today, your interest expense is in the range of $8k per year…not even reaching the level of the standard deduction. Maybe you get there if you add state income taxes…but probably not if Trump increases the standard deduction.
David Stockman @DA_Stockman 12h12 hours ago
Mnuchin appointment is horrid. Crony capitalist speculator & bubble rider. Clinton/Bush/Obama/Goldman again!
Another pundit sniping from the sidelines.
I would have preferred John Allison myself, OTOH, Mnuchin did a great job as the campaign finance chair, against all odds. He might be able to do the same for the country. While the fact that he worked for Goldman and Soros looks bad, the key word is “worked”, past tense. It could be an advantage having some knowledge of how these entities operate, if you need to do an end run around them.
Paulson also WORKED for GS.
So DID Ca$hkari.
They serve only one purpose and it’s not you.
I’m inclined to reserve judgement until after he takes office and we start seeing results or failures.
I have a feeling if any of his appointments go off message, he won’t waste any time in sacking and replacing them. How many times did he change up his campaign staff? What was the election outcome?
Let the man do his thing.
“I have a feeling if any of his appointments go off message, he won’t waste any time in sacking and replacing them. How many times did he change up his campaign staff? What was the election outcome?
Let the man do his thing.”
+1 It amuses me when all the MSM libtards and other armchair
quarterbacks point out all the possible traps he could be falling for.
How he can’t handle global leaders etc.
They guy’s been dealing with the toughest, nastiest sharks on the planet for 50 years. Billions don’t just fall into your lap. Let the man do his thing.
Mark Hanson @MrMarkHanson 10h10 hours ago
Mark Hanson Retweeted ValueAnalyst
Affordability horrid now vs Bubble 1.0 vs using the popular loans of each era. Prices 1% worse; mo pymnt 32% GREATER http://mhanson.com/2396-2/ Mark Hanson added,
ValueAnalyst @ValueAnalyst1
@DougKass @MrMarkHanson the write up (bottom right) has 0 data. Affordability is better now w/ lower mortgage rates, flat wages and prices.
Mark Hanson @MrMarkHanson 10h10 hours ago
Mark Hanson Retweeted ValueAnalyst
“All-cash” is the new exotic loan. BOTH circumvented the “mortgage loan house price governor”.Mark Hanson added,
ValueAnalyst @ValueAnalyst1
@DougKass @MrMarkHanson the graphs show only two decades of nominal prices vs. a century available, AND they need to be adj to real prices!
11-29 Hanson: Some of the Biggest Bubble Markets
BY MARK / TUESDAY, 29 NOVEMBER 2016 / PUBLISHED IN CREDIT, DEFAULT & FORECLOSURE, HOUSING, MORTGAGE MODS
The following chart is of the most bubblicious Case-Shiller regions. Remember, today’s “September” Case Shiller is 8-month lagging (Case-Shiller is a 3 month average July thru Sept “closed” sales, which are a result of March through August shopping experiences and May through August Pending Sales…a long time ago) and house prices have stepped lower in the back-half.
1) It’s never different this time……
http://mhanson.com/2410-2/
Get ready for a cash tax.
https://dailyreckoning.com/get-ready-cash-tax/
“Larry Summers, former Treasury secretary, current Harvard economist and grandee in the war on cash, says let them eat cake: “On balance, nothing in the Indian experience gives us pause in recommending that no more large notes be created in the United States, Europe and around the world.”
Somebody forgot to tell Summers he’s no longer relevant.
Yellen and her ilk still control our monetary policies, which equate to financial warfare against the 99%.
“Somebody forgot to tell Summers he’s no longer relevant.”
Don’t write-off ‘ol blue-eyes that easily. Deep State.
Somebody forgot to tell Summers he’s no longer relevant.
Oh he is very relevant with people that matter.
US “forgiving” $108 billion in student debt (meaning taxpayers are paying for the special snowflakes’ worthless degrees).
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-poised-to-forgive-108-billion-in-student-debt-2016-11-30?link=MW_latest_news
Student loan debt forgiveness also appears to be taxable in most cases. There are lots of articles out there talking about how students who get their loans forgiven wind up with a very large tax bill instead.
They could start by purging the serious student loan default people from the federal employee ranks.
It would be better to deduct the student loan payments from their paychecks.
How’s that globalism and open borders working out for you, Italy?
http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=55892
Get ready for more taxpayer and Fed bailouts of banksters that lent to deadbeats and the financially irresponsible.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-29/negative-equity-rolled-new-car-purchases-reaches-record-4832
‘Hoping to save towns from being swept up in the frenzy which accompanies sudden booms, researchers from the University of Queensland…have been analysing statistical evidence and interviews from ‘boom towns’ to try and assist communities to plan ahead and get locals ‘on the same page.’
‘Dr Kathy Witt explained ordinarily occurring patterns were ’sped up’ in boom-times, such as the sudden, dramatic, spike in the Chinchilla housing market prompting a lot of people to sell at the same time. ‘You can argue that one day Chinchilla may have got a KFC or Woolworths anyway, it just got sped up. So we can say it acted as a catalyst for change.. that’s brought on diversity that wasn’t there before. But there is a new normal’
Well Kathy, you can try and take the bust out of the boom if you want. Everybody seems pretty intent on doing it over and over.
This is how it ends, because I saw it. After the bottom fell out in Texas, you couldn’t get a loan. The term “spec building” were dirty words for decades. This is part of why I think it’s all been one big bubble, all over the world. There was never a sincere collective rejection of housing as a gambling tool.
Oh, and here’s where all the government lovers can step in and explain how the central banks/regulators keep us from busts and the like.
‘Families have moved out after the gas companies have bought them out and the local community is just disintegrating’
Ah, that phrase again. “new normal”. How many times have I heard that. As opposed to what, the “old normal” ? What is normal anymore? I don’t think anyone really knows what that is.
I’m waiting for them to resurrect another term: “dislocation”.
Along with “change” - I was working at a large private electric utility back in the 1980s. I still distinctly remember a management seminar titled “managing change (in the corporate workplace)” or something like that, as though change was inevitable and good.
Looking back, it was nothing more than a primer for the forward progress of globalism. That utility is now owned by an Australian investment firm. I’m sure that they are deeply concerned about the long-term reliability of the electrical infrastructure in a dot on the map half-way around the world, LOL!
Wow, Woolworths. Haven’t heard that old stores name in 30 years.
Anyone know what(at the Donald elect can cut w/o congressional approval?
None of my dc area neighbours know
You neighbors should read NYT:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/21/us/politics/what-trump-wants-to-do-in-his-first-100-days-and-how-difficult-each-will-be.html?_r=0
‘…said slowdowns in price growth were inevitable in some areas because the supply of housing was slowly returning to normal. ‘Prices had been growing aggressively, especially last year, because there wasn’t much housing going around,’ Mr Driscoll said. ‘Supply and demand has become a lot more even since then’
Again with the supply and demand excuse. Growing aggressively? Yeah, little tear down shacks in towns no one has ever heard of going for a million pesos is growing aggressively.
‘Median prices in Port Hedland peaked at $925,000 in June 2013 and sales volumes peaked at 402 in July 2006. Current median prices have fallen to $390,000 (-58% lower than peak), and current sales are 128 (-68% below peak).’
‘Median prices in Karratha peaked at $815,000 in October 2010 and sales volumes peaked at 511 in March 2005. Current median prices have fallen drastically to $362,980 (-55% lower than peak)’
So is that shrinking aggressively?
Frightened by Donald Trump? You don’t know the half of it
George Monbiot
Many of his staffers are from an opaque corporate misinformation network. We must understand this if we are to have any hope of fighting back against them
Yes, Donald Trump’s politics are incoherent. But those who surround him know just what they want, and his lack of clarity enhances their power. To understand what is coming, we need to understand who they are. I know all too well, because I have spent the past 15 years fighting them.
Over this time, I have watched as tobacco, coal, oil, chemicals and biotech companies have poured billions of dollars into an international misinformation machine composed of thinktanks, bloggers and fake citizens’ groups. Its purpose is to portray the interests of billionaires as the interests of the common people, to wage war against trade unions and beat down attempts to regulate business and tax the very rich. Now the people who helped run this machine are shaping the government.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/30/donald-trump-george-monbiot-misinformation
‘fake citizens’ groups’
The Guardian was hysterical about the Hitler Brexit too.
We had the unusual opportunity to choose between someone who is rich and is willing to spend his wealth serving the country and a person who has clearly become rich by serving the country.
For once the apparently less charitable option lost. More of this please.
“Frightened by Donald Trump?”
Maybe psychcentral.com can help you Mighty.
Grief & Loss After the Election
By John M. Grohol, Psy.D.
After the historic election of 2016, where underdog businessman Donald Trump upset Hillary Clinton for the presidency of the United States, many people are in distress. There have been large anti-Trump protests of thousands of people in major cities across the country chanting, “Not my president.”
A loss can be a devastating, frustrating, and even scary experience. We all experience loss in our lives, but few of us have ever experienced the kind of loss that happened on election day. Not only did the country elect an “outsider” — someone with no political experience whatsoever — but they rejected a seasoned politician who would’ve been the first female leader of our nation.
http://psychcentral.com/blog/archives/2016/11/10/grief-loss-after-the-election/
A friend of mine (veteran, Democrat, HRC voter) will frequently note (rightfully, IMHO), that the place people should be most afraid of Trump is with respect to him serving as Commander in Chief–where his powers are less checked by other branches of government.
That said…if Trump follows up his first picks with Petraeus as SoS, my friend said he would “sleep much better”, as he doesn’t see these advisers as being too keen on entering unnecessary military conflict.
if Trump follows up his first picks with Petraeus as SoS ??
And what if its Giuliani ??
“And what if its Giuliani ??”
There you have it in a single question. More FUD. People are fearful of the unknown. “Trump is unpredictable, he might pick Satan as the head of the CIA.”
HRC was known. Trump was/is not, although his appointments are starting to shed some light.
As I mentioned to my friend this morning (as he was commenting on Trump’s picks)…Trump’s selections are not all that different than who might have been chosen with any other Republican President–so maybe all the FUD statements are just a bit hyperbolic.
Of course Giuliani would be a divergence from my statement about DJT’s picks being similar to other GOP presidents.
Giuliani is famous for going after the mafia. Let’s assume he may not be a go-along to get-along guy.
Did you say satan? Is Cheney a candidate?
Petraeus certainly has the background and experience to operate an anti-insurgent operation on a large scale, but I’m not convinced that the U.S. needs to be involved in this kind of “dirty war.” There has to be a better way.
Is it Monbiot or Moonbot?
“I first encountered the machine when writing about climate change.”
Checked the Atlantic Ocean yesterday, it’s right where it was in 1981 and we continue to live under the protection of Owl Gore’s failed 2005 Hurricane predictions.
Also this
Germany Warns Of Coming Mini Ice Age
Posted on July 5, 2016
by Sean Adl-Tabatabai
Scientists at the ultra-warmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) say that the current solar minimum suggests the continent is about to suffer a miniature ice-age.
Scott.net reports:
The Berliner Kurier writes:
“That’s the conclusion that solar physicists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research reached when looking at solar activity.”
For an institute that over the past 20 years has steadfastly insisted that man has been almost the sole factor in climate change over the past century and that the sun no longer plays a role, this is quite remarkable.
http://yournewswire.com/germany-warn-of-coming-mini-ice-age/
“solar physicists”
Maybe that group has separate funding from the “global warming” group? At least they probably have a different computer model.
My understanding is that this article has come from a new solar model that looking back in time, predicts solar flare activity with 90%+ accuracy.
Based on this model, the sun is entering a phase of limited solar flare activity, not seen since the mid 1600’s (when the River Thames froze with greater-than typical frequency).
So, many are now surmising that this reduced solar activity will result in cooler global temperatures for a time.
Although we don’t know what else was going on in the climate in the 1600’s so I don’t think you can really have a strong argument for causation. But you certainly can’t rule out what the Germans are suggesting.
The case for normalizing Trump
Foreign populists have been beaten by talking issues, not personality.
Over the weekend, Donald Trump alleged the existence of massive voter fraud in an election he indisputably won. Tuesday morning, seemingly inspired by a Fox News segment, he tweeted that flag burning should be not only illegal (a popular stance widely if sporadically held by Republican politicians) but punishable via loss of citizenship. The previous night, he retweeted a teen Trump fan’s attacks on CNN reporter Jeff Zeleny. That was just a warmup for his own bizarre slam on CNN, a cable network that sidelined its regular stable of conservative pundits during the 2016 campaign in favor of a new crop of Trump-boosting specialists that including a former Trump campaign manager who was literally still cashing Trump’s checks during most of his tenure as a political commentator.
These antics intersect with two ongoing debates about Trump in politics and media.
One is to what extent we should regard Trump as deliberately using social media controversies to distract attention from other issues. The other is to what extent political actors should be pressured to not “normalize” Trump — remaining focused on what is outlandish, offensive, and bizarre about him rather than doing boring things like writing about his humdrum pick for transportation secretary.
Normalization, in this context, is typically cast as a form of complicity with Trump in which the highest possible premium is placed on maintaining a rigid state of alert and warning people that he is not just another politician whom you may or may not agree with on the issues.
But several students of authoritarian populist movements abroad have a different message. To beat Trump, what his opponents need to do is practice ordinary humdrum politics. Populists in office thrive on a circus-like atmosphere that casts the populist leader as persecuted by media and political elites who are obsessed with his uncouth behavior while he is busy doing the people’s work. To beat Trump, progressives will need to do as much as they can to get American politics out of reality show mode.
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/30/13767174/case-for-normalizing-trump
‘To beat Trump, what his opponents need to do is…’
Rent free, for the next 4 years.
Probably not double down on failed leftist dogma by electing Nancy Pelosi as…oh wait.
Finally media doing its job. It’s a good thing, isn’t it?
If they had done a decent job against Obama/Clinton, she would have been the president-elect. Dumb dumb utterly unprofessional partisan people..
Normalization, in this context, is typically cast as a form of complicity with Trump in which the highest possible premium is placed on maintaining a rigid state of alert and warning people that he is not just another politician whom you may or may not agree with on the issues.
And they portray us as the crazy ones. Every single thing they do will backfire. The globalist self-appointed elite still don’t get what this election was a referendum on.
Neither do their sycophants.
You may not be reading that correctly. The writer suggests that the strategy that you have in bold won’t work and then he goes on to advocate a different strategy.
” To beat Trump, what his opponents need to do is…”
So you’re telling me there’s a chance.
Mmm Mmm Mmm
Donald J Trump
OK now everybody let’s sing it together on a count of three.
Alright, I like that.
School Children Taught to Praise Obama
This was filmed around June 19, 2009 at the B. Bernice Young Elementary School in Burlington, NJ. Time to Home-school.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO3NBqT3LBc
rent free
No that was taxpayer funded.
I am anxiously awaiting…
The Donald’s gonna change it
The Donald’s gonna lead em
We’re gonna change it
And rearrange it
We’re gonna change the world
version.
Kids sing praise to Obama
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8e2w1z2GXn8
If we can’t get the Kool Aid kids to sing about Donald, perhaps we can have them change their lyrics from…
Obama’s gonna change it
Obama’s gonna lead em
to
Obama’s gonna kill em
Obama’s good at killing
Obama Told Aides He’s ‘Really Good At Killing People,’ New Book ‘Double Down’ Claims
11/03/2013 02:40 pm ET | Updated Nov 04, 2013
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/03/obama-drones-double-down_n_4208815.html
Median home price in San Diego County surpasses $500,000
The median home price in October exceeded a half-million dollars for the first time in a decade in San Diego County, real estate tracker CoreLogic reported Tuesday. Pushed up by high demand and limited supply, the median price hit $507,500, up 11 percent from a year ago.
Phillip Molnar, Reporter
The median home price in October exceeded a half-million dollars for the first time in a decade in San Diego County, real estate tracker CoreLogic reported Tuesday.
Pushed up by high demand and limited supply, the median price hit $507,500, up 11 percent from a year ago. It has still not reached the housing boom peak of $517,500 in November 2005.
Part of last month’s price jump was due to a substantial increase in the price of newly built homes and resale condos.
The median price of a new home in the county was $765,000, a jump of 26 percent from the same time last year. There were 256 new home sales in October, up 20 percent from the same time last year.
But resale homes, which made up 63 percent of October sales, also powered prices up. The median price for a resale house was $549,000, up 9.1 percent, its biggest year-over-year increase in 2016. Sales came in at 2,259, up 5.5 percent from a year ago.
More than 1,000 resale condos sold, bringing the median to $385,000, up 10 percent in a year and its highest point since May 2007.
Andrew LePage, data analyst at CoreLogic, noted home sales were still at historic lows, about 6 percent below average for October going back to 1988. He said the lack of homes for sale continues to put pressure on the market.
“It comes down to job growth and limited supply,” he said.
There were 3,597 total sales in October, down 5 percent from September, but up 7.2 percent from the year before.
Unlike the last time when home prices rose this high, fewer homes are being built. In 2005,15,258 residential building permits were granted in the county. So far this year, 7,412 have been granted.
Also, there simply aren’t as many homes for sale. In October, the Greater San Diego Association of Realtors recorded 6,211 active home listings, down by more than 2,000 from two years ago.
The rise in price reflected a market still recovering from the Great Recession but does not yet indicate how rising mortgage interest rates will change prices.
“We can’t produce enough housing to meet demand, whether it is for rent product or for sale product,” said Dana Kuhn, real estate lecturer at San Diego State University. “The regulatory process in San Diego County and much of coastal California is so cumbersome that it is hard to meet demand.”
He predicted the median home price would eventually meet and exceed the previous peak, perhaps sooner than some might expect.
“It will happen. It was just the last time it was so grossly subsidized by lending practices that it reached a height that it has taken more than a decade to match,” Kuhn said.
Even with rising mortgage rates, he said prices will likely see a boost in the short term as potential buyers get off the fence to head off further increases.
Median home prices across Southern California are up 6.9 percent year-over-year, but San Diego County is up the most at 11.1 percent.
It was followed by San Bernardino County, which rose 9.6 percent to $285,000; Orange County with a 9 percent increase for a median of $655,000; Riverside County with an 8.1 percent increase for a median of $335,000; Los Angeles County with a 7.4 percent increase for a median of $525,000; and Ventura County with a 7 percent increase for $535,000.
There’s some indication more San Diego County homes are being bought by people that intend to live in them. Twenty percent of sales in October were to absentee buyers, investors who usually don’t live in the homes themselves. In early 2013, 31.3 percent of sales were to absentee buyers.
Cash buyers made up 18.7 percent of October sales, a far cry from the peak of 37 percent in February 2013.
Distressed sales, made up of foreclosures and short sales, were down, making up 4.2 percent of sales. That’s down 2.6 percent from last year. The peak after the recession for short sales was 23.1 percent in January 2012. The foreclosure rate was 0.33 percent in August, improved from 2.99 percent in October 2009.
Other indicators
The median home price is not the only way to track the health of the market. When looking at repeat sales of identical single-family houses, home prices also showed signs of growth.
Adjusted for seasonal variation, the San Diego index of home prices was 5.3 percent higher in September compared to a year ago, said the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices also released Tuesday.
However, compared to August, the market appreciated by 0.27 percent, or at an annual rate of 3 percent, continuing a slowing down pattern that began in June.
Most of the year’s price increases came at the start of the year, beginning with an annual growth rate of 12.9 percent in January.
San Diego County was outpaced in home gains by the nationwide increase of 5.5 percent. The biggest gains were in Seattle (11 percent), Portland (10.9 percent), and Denver (8.7 percent).
The lowest gains were in New York City (1.8 percent) and Washington, D.C. (2.7 percent).
…
I guess you won’t be buying anytime soon, right?
During the next recession, if ever.
There will be no recession….EVER.
What kept you from buying in 2010/2011?
Still bubbly.
What kept you from buying in 2010/2011 ??
Gonads….
Still bubbly.
Not based on math. Based on Case-Shiller data, we were within 10% of the inflation-adjusted troughs from the prior 2 housing corrections.
And if you take into consideration how CPI calculations changed post-Boskin Commission, we were even closer than that to the prior 2 troughs.
You can say that you thought prices were too high then, and you can say that they are bubbly now. But you can’t say they were bubbly in 2010/2011.
But you can’t say they were bubbly in 2010/2011 ??
Oh yes he can….Just watch…
Case-Shiller data…LOL….The operating word is Shill.
Funny, Professor Shiller’s data was all the rage around here when people where pointing to it as clear evidence of a massive bubble in 2004-2007.
But when the same data showed that the bubble effectively fully deflated to prices not seen since prior post-recession periods, all of a sudden the data is discounted.
Soccer team charter crash.
Note…..no post crash fire. Did they run out of fuel while trying to sort out their electrical glitch? Did they even have enough fuel to divert to an alternate?
7000 ft altitude airport, surrounded by mountains, at night, with thunderstorms. Yet they tried to fly the trip. A bad case of “getthereitis”.
A bad case of “getthereitis” ??
Yep…1900 miles was at the limit of fuel capacity…Add in the bad weather, maximum weight, forcing more fuel consumption, it appears thats the first thing on the list of possibilities…
Not to mention the plane that they were on was probably 50 years old and well past its design life.
IRS Casts Unusually Wide Net for Bitcoin User Data
Under a procedure called a John Doe summons, the IRS this month asked a federal court in California to approve its request for Coinbase to turn over records on any user who had made digital currency transactions between 2013 and 2015.
To support his case, IRS agent David Utzke argued in the filing that all bitcoin users are by nature suspect, because cryptocurrency transactions do not require third parties—including companies like Coinbase—to report them to the government.
http://www.accountingtoday.com/news/tax-practice/irs-casts-unusually-wide-net-for-bitcoin-user-data-79978-1.html?utm_campaign=tax%20pro%20today-nov%2030%202016&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&taxpro=1&ET=webcpa:e8248171:2570405a:&st=email&eid=db48c2fd6bd86aeef2e920ac7c4acb5e
Inevitable.
Still no Bill. He did hint at heart problems. Hope he’s ok.
At least he won’t be broke in the next life, if he can remember his key number.
I think he was banned. Or he’s still celebrating Trump victory.
The global debt glut will be epic when is implodes.
Are we there yet?
Peak Globalization Definition | Investopedia
What is ‘Peak Globalization’
Peak globalization is a theoretical point at which the trend towards more integrated world economies reverses or halts. Peak globalization is a conceptual cousin to peak oil, which is the point where global oil production enters a permanent decline. Unlike oil, globalization is an economic trend rather than a commodity, so there are no hard physical limits on the level of globalization in the world. Instead, peak globalization would be caused by a collection of factors including domestic pushback against the loss of jobs in export hurt industries, increased nationalism and overall anger at unfair trade practices like dumping and currency manipulation.
…
Ugh, Piglosi just retained her position as minority leader. Shes 76! I guess its good for the repubs, as she is hated everywhere except SF. She really needs to sue her embalmer though.
I read 1/3 of house dems are from just 3 states, and 2/3 of house senate members are up for election in 2018. Its not going to be pretty for them. The criminal/metamucil party needs to look at catering to their voters, not just their donors. But we know how much they hate the little people. Its bizarre how tone deaf they are, all about that $$. Interesting video from a lefty about the dems future prospects and their slavish devotion to $$$
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsbY142hG4E
Dems are a party of stagnation and corruption and they prove it once again.
Pelosi wins house minority leadership race.
Gee, that’s a pretty uneventful little story. Though I see that it’s right at the top of the page on Drudge.
I have
Federal Debt Tops $19,900,000,000,000—On Black Friday
By Terence P. Jeffrey | November 30, 2016 | 9:07 AM EST
at the top of the page on Drudge.
Don’t you think it’s a problem?
Pelosi’s re-election? No, it’s not a problem.
Making Arizona Great Again!
http://tucson.com/news/local/electric-car-company-to-build-m-plant-in-casa-grande/article_6aef2252-b66a-11e6-97d8-fb55a14e9dce.html
Sour grapes. The comments to the article are entertaining.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/mexico-disappointed-carrier-agreement-keep-232858468.html