The Housing Bubble Playing Out
A report from Bloomberg on Canada. “Vancouver home sales plunged 37 percent in November from a year earlier, extending the slowdown in Canada’s most expensive property market for the fifth straight month. Sales have been falling year-on-year since July, with buyers sitting out as the price of a typical home skyrocketed to more than 12 times the median household income of residents in Vancouver. It topped a list of global cities identified by UBS Group AG as most at risk of a housing bubble. Further policy measures aimed at cooling the market contributed to the slowdown, including a 15 percent tax on foreign buyers imposed by British Columbia’s provincial government in August, tighter federal mortgage insurance eligibility requirements in October, and plans by the city to start taxing vacant homes next year.”
The Vancouver Sun. “Following a year of double-digit increases, the B.C. Real Estate Association is predicting average home sales prices will drop by as much as 8.7 per cent next year in the Vancouver area and across B.C. ‘We have to consider the source,’ said Andrey Pavlov, a professor of finance at the Simon Fraser University’s Beedie School of Business. ‘This is basically an industry group, and they have incentives to paint the real estate market in the best terms possible. With this in mind, if they’re forecasting a decline, then in my view things are probably pretty bad.’”
The Richmond News. “Realtor Steve Saretsky’s observed a lot of changes in Richmond when he comes back to visit the few friends and family members who remain. Among the many observations Saretsky has made, one in particular warranted further investigation using his professional acumen — that of seemingly empty condos and houses. Driving into Richmond, it appeared to Saretsky as though many of the units in the new 12-or-so-storey apartment towers were unoccupied.”
“Between January and October of this year he found that 46 per cent of condo sales were sold as vacant. ‘Many times it can make a sale easier. But still, 46 per cent?’ exclaimed Saretsky, who has dubbed Richmond the ‘Ghost City.’”
“Saretsky considers the prevalence of foreign investors and speculators in Richmond is likely the key contributor to the empty-home phenomenon — one that has taken hold in numerous ‘global’ cities around the world, as well as China itself as investors pump trillions of dollars into real estate to shelter their money. ‘Never has there been more evidence stacking up and showing the impacts of foreign capital coming in and distorting the real estate market. Richmond is the prime example,’ noted Saretsky.”
From Better Dwelling. “Vancouver real estate is a unique market. Where else in the world would you find smurfing, money laundering, abandoned mansions, and now the arson of vacant multi-million dollar homes. Since the announcement of the vacant home tax, officials suspect more than $60 million in property has been set ablaze in what authorities are calling ’suspicious.’ Year to date, we’ve identified 29 fires at vacant homes, a 480% increase from the year before. The total value of the places in question have an assessment value of over $100 million, and almost all were scheduled for redevelopment or have been vacant for years.”
“One person has been arrested in connection with the fire of a $20 million place on Drummond Ave. Details of the arrest sound like they knew what they were doing, intentionally placing holes in the walls so fire would consume the home faster. Police say at this time, they have no evidence that the person is connected to any other fire.”
The Globe and Mail. “Part-time work is fuelling Canada’s job growth this year, a discouraging trend for a country still desperately trying to recover from the oil slump. Alberta has been responsible for most of the full-time job losses. In the 12 months to November, the province eliminated a staggering 74,000 full-time positions. ‘We are going to find out how much of what was going on in B.C. was really just linked to what was going on in the housing market,’ said David Watt, chief economist with HSBC Bank Canada. ‘If the housing market comes off the boil and it looks like it has, the job market is going to come off the boil. We will see if there was underlying economic vigour or just the housing bubble playing out.’”
The Estevan Mercury. “Not long ago, Estevan was home to one of the hottest rental property markets in the country. The rental vacancy rate often hovered at or around zero, and the cost for rent each month was among the highest in Canada. But that trend has reversed in recent years, thanks to new rental properties that were constructed in 2013 and 2014, an influx of condominium properties for purchase in the city, and the economic slowdown that stemmed from a lower price of oil. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation showed that Estevan’s vacancy rate was at 27.6 per cent in October, up from 20.8 per cent a year earlier. It was the highest vacancy rate in the province among 10 cities ranked by CMHC.”
“Lloydminster (25.4 per cent) and Weyburn (20.2 per cent) were second and third, respectively. ‘The economic base for all three centres relies on the energy sector,’ CMHC stated in its report. ‘With energy prices remaining supressed, economic activity has been curtailed sharply, leading to a significant reduction in rental demand.’”
The Calgary Herald. “Local home sales slipped in November following two months of improved year-over-year activity, the Calgary Real Estate Board reported. Detached home prices dropped to $498,300, the first time since early 2014 that it’s been below $500,000. ‘These monthly figures aren’t a big surprise given the dynamics of our market right now,’ said CREB president Cliff Stevenson. ‘We’ve seen pockets of sales activity in certain areas, but also lots of months where the expectations between buyers and sellers just aren’t matching up. November was one of those months.’”
The Real Estate News EXchange. “While David Campbell has worked in Calgary commercial real estate for more than 25 years, the broker/owner of D.C. & Associates Realty became involved with a new specialization in 2010: judicial sales. ‘The judicial sale process is set up to allow lenders to get paid on debt that has fallen into arrears,’ said Campbell. ‘It provides protection to the property owner insofar as the property is not owned by the bank like a foreclosure. The property is placed on the open market at a price that is set by the court.’”
“It’s not surprising that there’s been an increase in judicial sales in Calgary and Alberta over the past two years as a result of the province’s slowing economy due to a drop in oil and gas prices. Campbell is somewhat worried that there will be a rise in residential judicial sales, as people who’ve been laid off from the oil patch begin to run out of their savings. ‘The best advice I can offer those sellers would be that they should be realistic about the value of their home. An overpriced property with an owner who has unrealistic expectations causes more problems to the seller than they often think.’”
From the Richmond News link:
‘Speaking about each house as he slowly drove by, Theeparajah pointed to few houses occupied by families, most occupied by aging empty-nesters and many that appeared unoccupied.’
“Empty forever; empty forever; this one is my friend for a long time; this one, no one knows what’s going on; this is some seniors over here so, this one’s OK; here, she’s a teacher and he’s an IT guy, so that’s OK; this is sold, and this one here sold a couple of times, so I guess someone’s living there; these guys are here, probably since 1983; this one sold, nobody here; this one almost original owner . . . These two houses are original people; this house here is a question mark . . . This is Steve, a firefighter from the airport. He won’t move because he has kids; over here this is a trainer from Thompson; this one here, it just sold, no one knows what will happen; these people are Chinese people, they are very nice . . . This is Dan, he will stay because they bought it recently.”
‘Prior to a 15 per cent tax being implemented on residential homes sales to foreigners, about one in four Richmond homes (between June 10 and Aug. 1) were being sold to foreigners. That’s more than any other city in B.C. and still doesn’t include foreign capital entering the market via permanent residents and Canadians. It doesn’t surprise Saretsky to see that Richmond house prices have gone up about 80 per cent in the past three years — also more than any other city in the province.’
“There’s got to be a little correlation right there,” he said.’
‘Mayor Malcolm Brodie told the News he has observed and heard complaints about empty homes. “It’s fair to say there are a significant number of [unoccupied] premises in Richmond,” said Brodie.’
‘Prior to a 15 per cent tax being implemented on residential homes sales to foreigners, about one in four Richmond homes (between June 10 and Aug. 1) were being sold to foreigners. That’s more than any other city in B.C. and still doesn’t include foreign capital entering the market via permanent residents and Canadians. It doesn’t surprise Saretsky to see that Richmond house prices have gone up about 80 per cent in the past three years — also more than any other city in the province.’
80% in three years!
IMO, Vancouver/Canada is symptomatic of a global system where the wealthy “elites” have essentially sold the masses down the river with policies which favor millionaires and billionaires (globalism anyone?) and offer little to no benefit to society as a whole. Central banks put the pedal to the medal with loose monetary policy for too long, and there’s no way out now without extreme pain to be had, again borne mostly by the masses.
It’s wasn’t a big secret. Bernanke said straight out he intended to get consumers spending (as if that does anything in and of itself) by increasing the prices of stocks and houses. I was dumbfounded. The media patted him on the back and DC didn’t say boo. I think we’ll be looking back at the global QE as the most insane policy gambit in modern history. I used to wonder if the housing bubble might lead to the end of central banking as we know it. Now it seems increasing possible it will take down the entire global financial structure. In France the two leading candidates are anti-EU and want engagement with Russia. If Italy bails, it’s over. And it won’t matter what Germany does or says.
Have you ever watched “Requiem for the American Dream?” It’s on Netflix. It delves into the central bank’s and corporations’ attempts to control people and their behaviors. Not much you probably don’t already know, but these people openly talk in a manner which is extremely troubling from an individual’s perspective, and that’s putting it mildly. I think they’re economic terrorists.
I haven’t seen it. Here’s the trailer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zI_Ik7OppEI
“Now it seems increasing possible it will take down the entire global financial structure.”
No need to worry. It’s turtles all the way down.
I think we’ll be looking back at the global QE as the most insane policy gambit in modern history.
Leaders have always been fascinated and thrilled by the ability to print currency, and their belief they can control and direct the economy.
They do control two large economic entities - the government and the central bank - but these entities are primarily wealth redistributors, not creators ISTM.
important vote in italy tomorrow regarding the continuing disintegration of the euro and the eu.
As of this writing the exchange rate is 1.0661 Euro per 1 US$. Back in 2008 it was over 1.5 Euros per 1 US$.
Give the British credit for retaining their own currency through all of this. If the Euro truly does disintegrate, then the Brexit vote may be something that the Brits will be very happy about.
Any speculation from the HBB Gallery on where the Euro will trade relative to the US Dollar in the short/medium/long term?
I’m pretty sure it will go to parity within the next year or two. I think it was Stanley Druckenmiller who penned a really interesting letter on the investing landscape a year or two ago, and he pointed out all the insane central bank policies in place that, taken on their own, would make you think the world economy is in the worst depression ever. This was fairly incongruent with employment and gdp rates, so I think the implication was that the reversion of these policies (like QE) would result in a reversion in many financial instruments.
Italy could become a republic,like we used to be
‘Premier Christy Clark of Banana Columbia – no misprint – is cruisin’ for a bruisin’ in May’s election if she doesn’t straighten up and fly right dealing with the multi-layered housing scandal.’
‘Enough of the 1940s slang. If New Democrat leader John Horgan plays his election cards skillfully – not easy, since the NDP’s ideological high priests are even more frightened of offending than the Liberals – he has the stick if he’s bold enough to use it: A call for an inquiry into the scandal in offshore real estate deals, concentrated in Vancouver and Toronto.’
‘The scandal includes money laundering, funny business with figures, jiggery-pokery about true ownership, fast flipping that cheated sellers and buyers alike, lies and deceit, tax evasion, loophole exploitation.’
‘Its victims? Many young Canadians – and the homeless old – paying swollen rents and with little hope of owning a family home, or forcing them to take desperate risks that could leave them twisting in the wind if interest rates rise a couple of percentage points.’
‘Its perpetrators and the complicit? Realtors and their fox-guarding-the-henhouse self-regulators. Developers. Bankers. Lawyers. Few, one hopes.’
‘They were facilitators for mostly fabulously rich Chinese wheeler-dealers – a fact the Clark government dodged, implying that such claims, obvious to anyone conscious and upright who knew what was happening on their own street, as xenophobic. Clark remained in denial until further dodging was impossible and action arguably too late. The ghosts may have vanished.’
‘Above all – and this is why corruption may well be the right word: Canada’s politicians and regulators had the incriminating data at hand. But political action on them would have spoiled the obscene real estate party of the last few years.’
‘In a recent column Todd cites heroes: Lawyer Christine Duhaime, who claims bankers and realtors withheld information, impeding investigations; SFU Prof. Jonathan Kesselman, who offered solutions; UBC Prof. David Ley, flailing “silences”; Justin Fung of Housing Action for Local Taxpayers, who said: “Foreign money coming in clearly benefits the property developers who are major contributors to the B.C. Liberal party.”
‘Todd alleges those who failed their public trust include Immigration Canada, the Canada Revenue Agency, and Fintrac, which tracks money laundering. They didn’t fully use the tools they had. He concludes: “In fact, unenforced laws are worse than none at all. They give voters the illusion of protection when there is none.’’ The offshore ghosts, all too few punished all too lightly, may have already vanished.’
‘And here’s election trouble for the Liberals: Prospective future leaders Rich Coleman and Mike de Jong were loyal backers of boss Clark’s laissez-faire stance of letting the unfettered market decide. That equates capitalism with crookedness, crime, exploitation – just business as usual. Marx would beam. Banana republics would rejoice: “Toothless police! Just like us!’’
‘Above all – and this is why corruption may well be the right word: Canada’s politicians and regulators had the incriminating data at hand. But political action on them would have spoiled the obscene real estate party of the last few years.’
I’ll refer again to the BNN interview with an anonymous Vancouver broker who said everybody knew it was crooked. Agents, appraisers, lenders, politicians - everybody involved knew. But they were so greedy they purposefully played along. What’s insane is they had to know how it would end. And they just didn’t care.
‘Clark’s Pay from Donors Too Tied to Real Estate Moguls: Eby | The Tyee
thetyee.ca/News/2016/05/02/Clark-Donors-Tied-Real-Estate/
May 2, 2016 - … Christy Clark with BC Liberal Party fundraising chair Bob Rennie, who ….. Support The Tyee’s ‘BC in the Balance:
House Price Horrors: Who You Gonna Call? Not Christy Clark | The Tyee
https://www.thetyee.ca/Opinion/2016/…/Vancouver-House-Price-Horrors...
Jul 26, 2016 - It looks like Christie got on the phone to Bob Rennie “Hey Bob,how much …
Clark thanks condo kings for their support - The Globe and Mail
http://www.theglobeandmail.com › News › British Columbia
May 16, 2013 - Video: What Christy Clark can learn from her stunning election … “I want to say a special thanks to Bob Rennie and Peter Wall,” Ms. Clark told …
The Rennie Team (1 + 1 = 3) - Rennie
about.rennie.com/the-team/
The founder of Rennie, Bob Rennie is recognized for his leadership in envisioning new and innovative …. I’m looking forward to growing with this company, as we support an exciting new crop of developers as they grow and …
B.C. condo marketer Bob Rennie accused of advance knowledge of
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british…/foreign-buyer-tax-bob-rennie-1.370495...
Aug 2, 2016 - Vancouver real-estate marketer Bob Rennie is being accused by NDP … Premier Christy Clark said very few people knew about the tax and …
Condo King’s ‘educated guess’ about B.C. foreign tax sparks uproar …
theprovince.com/…/condo-kings-educated-guess-about-b-c-foreign-tax-spa…
Aug 4, 2016 - Condo King Bob Rennie and B.C. Premier Christy Clark. … But the tax is wildly popular — 90-per-support public support, according to one poll …
Bob Rennie | NUVO Magazine
nuvomagazine.com/magazine/summer-2015/bob-rennie
May 28, 2015 - Bob Rennie’s love of art and his passion for collecting were sparked on a trip to …. An unwavering Christy Clark supporter (even when other polls were … Gregor Robertson have been elected mayor without Bob’s support?
Economist doubts BC Liberals intend to solve Vancouver housing …
http://www.nationalobserver.com/…/economist-doubts-bc-liberals-intend-solve...
May 18, 2016 - Premier Christy Clark’s own party fundraiser is Bob Rennie, owner of … of the report’s author and indirectly supporting the luxury investment ..
Foreign buying in Metro Vancouver now pegged at 10 per cent
Abbotsford News (registration) (blog)-Jul 26, 2016
“I don’t know why they wouldn’t deal with it except perhaps that the king of pre-sale condos is in fact the premier’s chief fundraiser, Bob Rennie.”
How Chinese Buyers Are Driving Up Home Prices
TheTyee.ca-Jul 12, 2016
Gregor Robertson’s $25,000 a plate pal, Bob Rennie, the so-called condo king, … The chief fundraiser for the Liberals is Bob Rennie, who is a realtor who has …
Justin Fung: An open letter to those who play the race card in the …
Straight.com-Jul 11, 2016
We’ve already seen Gregor Robertson and Bob Rennie do it once, calling out academically peer-reviewed research done by Andy Yan as being “racist”.
Ten ways to ease Vancouver’s housing crisis: Readers’ respond
Vancouver Sun (blog)-Jul 6, 2016
It has been disheartening to have most media turning to so-called expert commentators such as Bob Rennie (who is implicated in the scheme of things) or failing …
Columnist calls for temporary ban on foreign ownership in BC
News1130-Jun 15, 2016
“Real estate mogul, Bob Rennie has said we don’t want to impact the Chinese in particular because of a lot of business we do with them, but I hardly find that …
Letters: Christy Clark, Party of No, Bob Rennie, nudists, Pattullo …
The Province-Jun 10, 2016
Condo salesman Bob Rennie does not give a crap about any neighbourhood. All he cares about is selling more and more condos to anyone who will pay for …
Banks add fuel to concerns over housing, finance department …
Financial Post-Jun 2, 2016
Bob Rennie, founder of Rennie Marketing and one of the most well-known figures in Vancouver’s housing industry, is against any type of tax that specifically …
Donor lists reveal BC Liberals’ greed for power
The Globe and Mail-Apr 5, 2016
And the real estate marketers who sell all the units, such as Bob Rennie, the chair of fundraising for the Liberals and himself a contributor of tens of thousands of …
Pay-for-play politics ruining BC
24 Hours Vancouver-Apr 4, 2016
But that’s happening — and BC Liberal fundraising chair Bob Rennie is planning 20 more before the May 2017 election. The clear perception is big money buys …
Vancouver Shines Light on Empty Condos
TheTyee.ca-Mar 8, 2016
More than one in 10 Vancouver condos sit empty
Vancouver Sun-Mar 8, 2016
I doubt their top fundraiser Bob Rennie would want the public to know the real vacancy rate.
people have been conditioned by a long history of selectively enforcing laws. they can’t see themselves being prosecuted.
Which leaves the greedy buyers,living beyond their means
Reminds me of the movie Goodfellas. “We paid off cops. We paid off lawyers. We paid off judges. Everybody had their hands out. Everything was for the taking.”
When I sold my house earlier this year (my first time selling a house), it was an eye opening experience from the seller side. It was like.. “big game hunting”, and the buyer was the dumb, fat animal bringing all the money to the table. And once the buyer got taken down, it was one big money party — the agents, the escrow people, the loan people, the inspectors. Everyone. It was clear — nobody had the buyer’s best intentions in mind, it was entirely about taking down the dumb animal so everyone could feast. I know that’s how the world works, and yeah the money was good, but it wasn’t a pleasant experience. Things to think about if I’m ever a buyer again.
You were part of the feast, as they enjoyed that delicious 6% of your gross.
Yep.
7 w transfer taxes
It was clear — nobody had the buyer’s best intentions in mind
Correct. It was about getting their cut from the deal. Only little people do real work. It’s the American Way.
“Only little people do real work.”
And for really little pay, especially after taxes. Small wonder 100 million or so Americans don’t even bother to work.
Mexicans perform all of the laborious employment in the Ag business, and employers won’t waste their time and money hiring white fatties who are looking to hurt themselves on the job so they can draw disability. The only whites in Ag now are educated and speak two languages.
Foreign Buying Plummets In Vancouver: Sales To Foreigners Crash 96%
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-24/foreign-buying-plummets-vancouver-sales-foreigners-crash-less-1
‘Since the announcement of the vacant home tax, officials suspect more than $60 million in property has been set ablaze in what authorities are calling ’suspicious.’ Year to date, we’ve identified 29 fires at vacant homes, a 480% increase from the year before. The total value of the places in question have an assessment value of over $100 million, and almost all were scheduled for redevelopment or have been vacant for years.’
Flip, flip, flip, flip, flip and flip.
Extract equity all along the way.
When you run out of greater fools…
Burn it to the ground and collect the insurance money.
That is a lot of peddled fiction…
—-
Stripped of Accounting Gimmicks, the US Has Been on the Verge of Recession since 2011
ZeroHedge.com | 2 December 2016 | Phoenix Capital
The Fed has a very serious problem on its hands.
That problem concerns the fact that for seven years the Fed has spread the myth of a “recovery.”
I say “myth” because the reality is that when you remove accounting gimmicks, the US has been a “hair’s breadth” away from a recession since 2010.
The most obvious gimmick being employed is the phony “deflator” used to understate inflation and overstate growth.
Everyone knows that the official CPI measure for inflation is bogus. But the Fed routinely uses a deflator that is even lower that CPI when calculating GDP.
Consider this simple example. Let’s say that the US GDP grew by 10% last year. Now let’s say that inflation also grew by 10%. In this scenario, real inflation adjusted GDP growth was ZERO.
However, announcing ZERO GDP growth is a major problem politically. So what do the Feds do? They claim that inflation was just 8%, and BOOM you’ve got 2% GDP growth announced for a year in which real GDP growth was actually zero.
This is one of the biggest games being played by the Fed post-2008. By using a deflator metric that is way below even the bogus CPI measure, the Fed is dramatically understating inflation and overstating GDP growth.
By using nominal GDP measures, you remove the Feds’ phony deflator metric. With that in mind, consider the year over year change in nominal GDP that has occurred in the US since 2011.
As you can see, since 2011, the nominal GDP has at levels that have signaled RECESSIONS at any other point in the last 30 years.
The Fed has fueled inflation — and it’s helping the rich
By John Coumarianos
Published: May 23, 2016
‘A research paper by Rob Arnott and Lillian Wu of Research Affiliates in Newport Beach, Calif. asks why the CPI doesn’t reflect the inflation that is apparent in places where people spend their money.’
‘Arnott and Wu argue that the four biggest expenditures for most people — rent, food, energy, and health care — have been rising. Since 1995, rents have been rising at 2.7% clip, energy at a 3.9%, food at 2.6%, and health care at 3.6%. Notably, these four expenses account for 60% of the aggregate of people’s budgets, 80% of middle-class budgets, and 90% of the budgets of the working poor.’
‘In addition, 50th percentile income has barely budged since 1970, and real per-capita GDP continues to outstrip it in a breathtaking manner.’
‘In other words, the massive stimulus since the Great Recession of 2008-09 hasn’t brought much benefit to America’s middle class. Rather than unleashing the “animal spirits” of the private sector, it has arguably served to stagnate economic and wage growth. Monetary policy, in particular, may be stimulating inflation in financial assets including stocks, bonds, and real estate — further widening the gap between rich and poor, and hollowing out the middle class, according to Arnott and Wu.’
‘The authors quote former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke saying he wanted to create a “wealth effect” by lowering interest rates. Resulting higher asset prices would stimulate the affluent to spend more, which, in turn, would have a beneficial effect on the economy.’
‘Unfortunately, spending by the affluent has a limited effect on the economy. Arnott and Wu ask rhetorically, “If the rich mostly buy more assets (i.e., stocks, bonds, real estate, art, collectible cars, rather than ‘new stuff’ that needs to be manufactured), doesn’t that just fuel more bubbles?”
‘In addition, 50th percentile income has barely budged since 1970′
And what has been the dominant economic force in this time? Globalism. It’s worth remembering that when globalism was being set up they tasked Greenspan and Volcker with designing the nuts and bolts. Every major financial body: central banks, IMF, BIS, multinational corporations, WTO, it’s all centered around globalism. These bubbles are created to mask the lack of wealth creation that is the result of globalism.
‘Supporters of globalization need to develop a new way to promote open markets that relies on smaller trade deals and helps people who are feeling left out, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said.’
“I certainly hope there is not a move toward deglobalization,” Lagarde said Friday in an interview with Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait in New York. “I equally think we have to move toward globalization that has a different face, and which is not excluding people along the way.”
‘With the prospect of a global trade deal seeming like a distant hope, globalization is “clearly taking a different form” than imagined, she said. “A new framework has to be invented,” she said. “I hope it can be proposed in a sufficiently attractive way that’s compatible with regional or bilateral agreements.”
This is their new line: “help people who are feeling left out.”
You are 40 years too late Christina. So much for your inevitability.
They’re all about saying the right thing, not doing the right thing. They have an agenda which they peddle as being in the interests of the people. What they fail to disclose that the “people” they are talking about are the moneyed interests, a small fraction of society. It’s time for guillotines, that’s why I’ve been renovating them…
Yesterday I was thinking that in this last election I went with the pitchfork crowd. I know they aren’t libertarian or conservative or liberal. I don’t care. I know it could get messy. I wondered also if this was how the mobs that cut of the kings head in France felt. I can’t recall a populist uprising in my lifetime, so I don’t have any references. These people like the IMF might as well be saying let them eat cake.
I wondered also if this was how the mobs that cut of the kings head in France felt.
I was in a town (population 87 - step outside of your car and close your door and you hear…blissful silence) the other day talking with the gas jockey. I mentioned that I thought if the demarcation lines between sides were as clear as they were during the civil war that we might have another one and I wondered how those people felt compared to people now. He assured me that “we’re already in a civil war. Most people just don’t know it yet”.
Keep enjoying that civil war fantasy, Michael!
“this last election I went with the pitchfork crowd. I know they aren’t libertarian or conservative or liberal. I don’t care. I know it could get messy.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=my70GSX9nwE
“I went with the pitchfork crowd”
I’m not sure that’s true - a lot of the populist, pitchfork mob narrative is just a media construction. Like you said a few months ago, we never used to talk about the American “elite” in civics class. Similarly, “populism” was something that only happened in second world banana republics, because America is not set up like that.
The people who voted for Trump are not a peasant underclass overthrowing an always-there aristocracy. They are Citizens of the United States of America - one of the best, luckiest things to be in human history, the people who have always had the power in this country. It is the globalist elite who were the insurgent mob, trying to stage a silent coup over 30 years and hoping no one would notice. It’s true Americans were asleep at the wheel, but it is not pitchfork populism for citizens to finally reclaim their power after indulging the self-appointed “establishment” for many years.
Likewise, the civil war/could get messy narrative just reinforces the false notion that this ultra-minority insurgent elite has always been there and creates stability and represents the majority, when they are actually a recent, rogue creation that represents a tiny, tiny faction.
“…50th percentile income has barely budged since 1970…”
Indeed. Median income has been flat for over forty years, yet the cost of housing, transportation, upper-education and health-care have been inflating steadily although I remember a huge uptick in the seventies when women entered the workforce in greater numbers.
Bingo,everybody works vs the 50s. Economists gloss over that.
I remember a huge uptick in the seventies when women entered the workforce in greater numbers.
That was when that big increase in the labor force participation rate occurred. So it must have been a great thing, according to Mafia Blocks and Zerohedge.
Falling housing prices my good friend. Falling housing prices.
Granby, CO Housing Prices Crater 11% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/granby-ct/home-values/
But you get more computer!
Energy and housing up w a little break on food
“Vancouver home sales plunged 37 percent in November from a year earlier, extending the slowdown in Canada’s most expensive property market for the fifth straight month.”
Cr8r
I would love to hear from some of the Vancouver housing bulls who used to enjoy pointing out how wrong we were for suggesting that Vancouver was a bubble on the brink of bursting. In hindsight, were we really wrong, or merely prescient?
‘A 38-year-old Vancouver man is expected to appear in court today after he was arrested Sunday near a suspected arson at a vacant home on Vancouver’s West Side. Johnathan Lewis Durocher is charged with arson causing damage to a property in connection with the fire on Drummond Drive near West 2nd Ave in West Point Grey yesterday.’
‘It is the latest in at least 29 suspicious fires at vacant homes in the city this year, police said. Last year, there were only five, said Const. Jason Doucette of the Vancouver Police Department.’
‘Doucette was asked repeatedly about possible motives, and whether the unusual string of fires might be caused by squatters, or is politically motivated by anger against empty homes. He said it’s too early for police to comment.’
“I don’t think people should jump to conclusions,” said Doucette. “When we look at things like motive, it could be something that’s very mainstream that everyone’s assuming, it could be things that we haven’t even thought of.”
‘A few weeks ago we pointed out a little known video of a drone touring an abandoned mansion in Vancouver’s schmancy Point Grey neighbourhood. Nice place, but in a total state of dilapidation from years of vacancy. This week the Vancouver fire department caught a man trying to burn down the $19.8 million mansion in the middle of the afternoon – totally not suspicious.’
‘We previously wrote about the home when we came across a drone tour by Corby Fieldwalker Studios, highlighting the state of disrepair. The home was last listed for sale a few weeks ago at $19.8 million, but stagnated on the market. It was purchased by the current owners last year for $17.55 million. As pricey as that seems, the assessed value of the property is $17,686,000 – which means it was a total deal..ish.’
‘One thing Vancouver police are going to investigate is if the vacant homeowner tax had anything to do with it. At this time, they believe it’s suspicious, but didn’t want to speculate. They currently have no reason to believe the person was acting on financial motive, but the new vacant homeowner tax works out to roughly $176,860 per year.’
‘A spike in suspicious fires to vacant houses has Fire Chief John McKearney calling for more robust standards that would require property owners to do a better job of boarding up homes before they are demolished for redevelopment.’
‘McKearney’s recommendation comes as he and city staff are also exploring the possibility of charging property owners for the cost of extinguishing a fire and investigating how the blaze erupted, if an owner is derelict in properly boarding up a house and securing a property.’
‘The recommendations are in response to firefighters seeing a significant increase in the number of fires to vacant homes in Vancouver. As of last Thursday, there have been at least 25 suspicious fires in vacant homes this year, with eight of those occurring since Oct. 23. A vacant church in Kerrisdale also went up in flames last week.’
“What’s been happening is it’s a mixture of people going in there for squatting purposes or going in there for arson purposes,” said McKearney, pointing out the houses had already had power cut off before they were set ablaze.’
‘He said the vacant homes, which are usually in deteriorating states of repair, are not only dangerous for people breaking into them but for firefighters who are required to ensure nobody is inside during a blaze. He noted in one recent fire, holes had been cut in the floor.’
‘In separate interviews, NPA Coun. George Affleck and Green Party Coun. Adriane Carr both told the Courier they were concerned that so many houses in Vancouver are slated for demolition.’
“It begs the question again: ‘Why in a city so desperate to find homes for people, where affordability is such a crisis, do we have boarded up homes sitting around for years?’” she said, noting she wanted to find out more information about the state of the 25 homes hit by fires. “I don’t like the idea that we are demolishing perfectly good homes, if that’s the case.”
Is it really that difficult to connect these arsons to the real estate investors who stand to collect insurance claims from them? Seems like a no-brainer.
It seems the Vancouver 15% foreign buyer tax, followed by the 1% vacancy tax, hastened the popping of their bubble. I wonder how long it would have continued without those triggers. Other cities in Canada still seem in bubblelicious mode. There was an article yesterday, Toronto still seeing 20% YOY price appreciations as of this November. Oh yeah, here it is.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-house-prices-rise-1.3878104
Looks like Toronto prices have as far to fall as housing prices in the US.
Yeah, seems Canada is a mixed bag. Wherever the Chinese buyers are coming in, that’s where the bubbles are. Same as it is elsewhere in the world.
One thing I thought was strange. Ben, correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought I remember you posting an article recently about certain Chinese towns that got totally built-up in recent times, tons of brand-new housing, but they can’t find anyone to buy them. But at the same time, the major Chinese cities are in raging bubble mode. I never looked on a map, perhaps the places in China they built housing that nobody wants are in “the sticks”, or something.
It’s a global bubble driven by dumb.borrowed.money. every last dollar of it.
‘A construction boom coupled with economic gloom has left Edmonton with its highest rental vacancy rate since 1996. Edmonton’s vacancy rate was at 7.1 per cent in October, up from 4.2 per cent a year ago, according to the latest rental market report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. Alberta’s overall vacancy rate is slightly higher at 8.4 per cent.’
“The larger contributing factor is we’ve really added a lot of rental apartments to our universe. We’ve had a lot of rental construction in Edmonton over the past few years, which has pushed the supply of rental accommodation higher,” said CMHC Edmonton market analyst Christina Butchart.’
‘Landlords have been offering incentives like a month of free rent to win an edge in the marketplace. “They’re having a little bit more difficulty attracting and keeping tenants, so there’s more positive news for renters out there looking for a place. There’s a lot more selection than there was a couple of years ago,” Butchart said.’
‘The report also notes 35.8 per cent of Edmonton’s rental properties saw a turnover of tenants in last 12 months. Edmonton is not feeling the hit like some parts of the province, however. Cold Lake has the highest vacancy rate in Alberta at 26.2 per cent, due to a glut of rental construction and loss of jobs.’
The cmhc”
Canada has almost as many useless gov agencies as we do ,but w no one to chop them
Chop chop
‘In Estevan and Lloydminster, Sask., one out of every four rental apartments is sitting empty. And at 10.6 per cent rental vacancy, CMHC said Saskatoon now has the highest rate of empty apartments of any major Canadian city.’
‘McClocklin added: “A few years ago one of the biggest concerns in Saskatoon was the lack of new rental accommodation, so I think the market will catch up to itself. It might just take a year or two.”
‘Calgary’s apartment vacancy rate hit seven per cent in October, the highest level in more than 25 years, according to a new report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The city’s weak labour market has affected rental demand, the annual rental market report states, while supply in both the primary and secondary rental markets has risen.’
‘Paola Durante and her husband signed a lease for their one bedroom apartment in June of 2015. They didn’t have to a pay a security deposit, but now they’re wishing they got a better deal. “I’ve seen this exact same apartment going for like $200 less than what I pay, which is a big difference,” she said.’
‘Durante said the company they rent from isn’t flexible about lowering the rent for tenants that already have a signed lease, so she’s been looking elsewhere. “I’ve walked around, I’ve looked online, you can get a really nice apartment downtown for about $800, $900.”
The last time I saw hair like the guy has at 0:53 of the top video was in the bottom video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45m9F3e1k3w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NesjZbF1Ls
That woman has a great Canadian accent. I guess that she did the opposite of what Lena Dunham threatened to do. Except in her case she moved to America to revel in its problems. Things are going too well in her own country.
“there is a sucker born every minute.”
Can the Trump cheerleaders here clarify something? I see that many of those who ardently love Trump are the same people who refer to Goldman Sachs (and many of the other headline, TBTF Wall St. institutions) as vampire squids, the oligarchy, part of the Elite, etc.
Am I missing something? Trump appointed Steve Mnuchin, a former Partner at Goldman, to head the Treasury Department. Mnuchin is also a Hollywood financier (among others, he financed Bryan Singer’s X-Men films; Bryan Singer being an openly gay man who faced a number of civil suits alleging sexual abuse of children). I’ve met Mnuchin in real life. He lives in Bel-Air and frequents social events that are chock full of LGBT individuals, Democrats and archetypal “Coastal Elites”. He’s not what I have in mind when I think of the Alt-Right.
Trump’s Jobs Panel will have JPM’s Jamie Dimon (a Democrat and self-described liberal), Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman and BlackRock’s Laurence Fink (another registered Democrat).
The Commerce Secretary will be Wilbur Ross, who served in the Clinton admin. in the 90s and is a former Senior Managing Director at Rothschild Inc’s NYC office.
Trump just met with Goldman’s Gary Cohn about a potential job.
So, what’s up with the stark difference between the rhetoric I see here, which is very critical of Wall Street and particularly critical of GS, and Trump’s post-election actions? Not to mention, many of you are very critical of deficit spending and debt-financed economic “growth”, while Trump has repeatedly said he doesn’t care about the deficit and will probably add to it considerably with his tax cuts and tax cut-financed trillion dollar infrastructure bill.
Keep in mind, I’m not saying that these picks are necessarily bad. I just don’t see how he’s a “champion of the working class” or how he supposedly represents a major break in American politics or how he’ll rein in Wall Street and that line of rhetoric, which is frequently deployed here. None of these picks would be that surprising from, say, a President Cruz.
More broadly, for all the talk about being “tough”, he just backed down and kissed Nikki Haley’s butt after hitting her hard during the election and he appointed McConnell’s wife (Elaine Chao, a former Bush cabinet member) to Transportation Sec. after McConnell was hesitant to even publicly support his campaign.
This looks to me like it’s just going to be a continuation of the W Bush administration, especially if we get Bolton or Romney in State (in which case, we’re probably going to see a major change in the rhetoric regarding Russia, with more saber-rattling). That’s not the worst thing, but I don’t see how Trump is any kind of game-changer.
‘many of you are very critical of deficit spending and debt-financed economic “growth”, while Trump has repeatedly said he doesn’t care about the deficit and will probably add to it considerably with his tax cuts and tax cut-financed trillion dollar infrastructure bill.’
He also said the debt might have to renegotiated. This money is never going to be paid back, not without a haircut. We have close to or more than 200 trillions in unfunded liabilities. The US government has been technically insolvent for a decade. If China can print money and build dozens of empty cities, maybe we can spruce up our infrastructure while this funny money game is being played.
I think you are missing something here. This is populism. Not libertarianism. I didn’t create it. But like Michael Moore said, millions saw an opportunity to give a big F-U to the establishment. We just doubled the national debt in 8 years. What do we have to show for it? Bernanke and Yellen spent 4 trillion created dollars to push house and stock prices higher. Is it really too much to ask that we spend one trillion for something that actually benefits someone other than the rich? I don’t care who the guy hires. Romney isn’t going to decide about Russia or anything else. I’ve decided I’m not going to sit around and wet the bed like the day after day like the media wants me to. (Screw the media, BTW). Heads are rolling all over the place, things are changing and I for one will judge it when it actually takes form.
Dont forget all the pensions that are sure to blow up badly. That has to be dealt with. I figure Trump will have different people serve different phases in his administration, right now he has a few key things he wants to tackle, after that those people might get tossed as he seeks to address other issues.
If Mnuchin is wealthy and lives in LA, who do you expect him to socialize with? Rappers, or maybe blue collar guys like plumbers, electricians? That director Singer is likely a scum bag though and there are probably a lot of scum in hollywood who take advantage of their power.
Hoping he put maddog Mattis at sec def just to let the world know not to try anything, so he can focus on domestic issues. We need to stop meddling in other countries affairs.
Ben, I don’t disagree with Trump regarding the deficit or debt-financed growth, nor do I oppose the infrastructure bill he’s proposed. To the contrary, I think he’s dead right (as was Dick “deficits don’t matter” Cheney). Deficits and debt matter enormously for smaller or developing countries with limited or tenuous access to international capital markets. They matter a lot less for a very large, diversified economy like the U.S., which makes up nearly 20% of global GDP. The U.S. and Japan will always be able to sustain much higher debt levels than, say, Ecuador or Greece, without facing any real consequences. This is for the same reason that a massive company like, say, G.E., with massive cash flows and a huge underlying asset base, can be balance-sheet insolvent and survive while a mom & pop store can be in the black and face liquidity challenges that force it to close. This is especially true for sovereigns, as there is no insolvency mechanism for sovereigns. Creditors can’t drag the U.S. federal government into a bankruptcy proceeding.
I’m not here to litigate deficit spending though. I’m just pointing out: aren’t a lot of the most ardent Trump supporters also extreme deficit hawks? Or they were up until very recently? A few years ago, the Tea Party movement made the debt on its top 2 or 3 political issues. Now much, if not all, of the Tea Party is lined up behind Trump. Trump’s infrastructure bill is a de facto concession that Keynesian fiscal stimulus may have merit. Weren’t many Trump supporters decrying that as “socialism” not that long ago? What changed?
“I don’t care who the guy hires. Romney isn’t going to decide about Russia or anything else.”
Why don’t you care? On the Goldman issue: you have to admit that many of your readers/posters have decried Goldman as THE emblem, the virtual embodiment of crony capitalism, bubble-nomics and TBTF government-Wall Street collusion. Trump ran TV ads targeting Blankfein and made hay out of Clinton’s speech to GS. Now a Goldman Partner is in at Treasury and Gary Cohn himself will probably join soon. Jamie Dimon has similarly been heavily critiqued here and in other “populist” media venues, and now he’ll be directly advising the White House on jobs. These aren’t minor compromises or deviations from his promises. It’s a pretty stark turnaround. And many posters here went from “Goldman is a global vampire squid that is destroying the productive economies of the world” to “Aww, shucks, well maybe Steve Mnuchin will do well in Treasury, let’s give him time”.
And, how do you know Romney won’t have influence in State? Kellyanne Conway stated on Friday that the short-list for SoS includes Romney, Petraeus, Giuliani, and Corker. Petraeus might be the least neocon-ish of those 4. (And hyper-neocon John Bolton was on the list until recently.) Is it just a coincidence that Trump’s looking at a bunch of neocons for State? I don’t see why you’re so confident that this doesn’t matter. If Romney, Giuliani or Corker is appointed, I’d personally expect military action with Iran to be back on the table and, with that, saber-ratting against Iran’s sponsor Russia. I mean, ya’ll were talking about how Romney is a neocon tool, a traitor, etc just about a month ago. How is it that now it’s completely irrelevant that he’s being considered for a position as one of our country’s top foreign policy architects?
‘Why don’t you care?’
For one there isn’t anything I can do about it. Two the guy pulled off a political miracle and smothered two political dynasties in the effort. IMO he deserves a chance to put together whoever he sees fit to have a go at it. Also I don’t have a hangup about GS. The real sleaze is at the central bank. This “hate the banks” is part of the narrative the media put together to rebuild the housing bubble. It works like this: “there was nothing wrong with house prices, it was all those evil banks and subprime loans.” Never mind that 90% of foreclosures were prime loans.
And I don’t do bed wetting. It’s stupid.
I said what I thought about the infrastructure thing recently so I’m not going to repeat it. Let’s just say he said it’s a big fat bubble and the housing part has already popped in some major markets. He’s got a hotel in Dubai, do you think he doesn’t know it’s a disaster there and in many other global cities? Read what Bannon said in the Hollywood Reporter interview, it covers the infrastructure strategy.
I know of some people who voted for Obama twice and then voted for Trump. Looking at some of these counties and states that did the exact same thing, this is a broad coalition. It only has one elected representative. (Meaning, it’s his party, not mine). As I said before, he slayed the establishment Screech and the Bush crime family. Anything we get beyond that is gravy.
Jonesy eloquently managed a Bed Wetter again.
Looks like Mnuchin is just itching to sell off Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That’s a huge plus. I’ve no doubt that most of the spoils will go to the bottom feeders looking to buy in bulk and turn a profit, but it’s time for those two GSEs to go.
“Also I don’t have a hangup about GS. The real sleaze is at the central bank.”
Ben, based on your years of experience reporting on the real estate market (which intersects heavily with finance, especially in the area of interest rates), do you think GS exerts any kind of influence at all on Fed policy? Do you think GS and the major Wall Street banks oppose Fed policies like, say, ZIRP?
My view as an outsider (I do work in finance, albeit not for one of these TBTF Wall St. giants) is that the major banks and the Fed (1) are basically in agreement on monetary and fiscal policy, which includes heavy government intervention into the market, and (2) have immense overlap where it pertains to personnel. Many of the sleazeballs at the Fed were once employed by GS and vice-versa.
I believe the same symbiotic relationship between the central bank and private-sector finance also characterizes the ECB, BoJ and Bank of England.
Just curious, do you expect Trump will take action to deflate the RE bubble and other asset bubbles? It’s a genuine question because he hasn’t been entirely clear on that point. When it comes to Yellen, the Fed and interest rates, he criticized her initially but then said “I have nothing against Janet Yellen whatsoever. She’s a very capable person. People that I know have a very high regard for her.” Feel free to Google for source (not sure if I’m allowed to post links). Then he said “She’s a low-interest-rate person; she’s always been a low-interest-rate person. And I must be honest, I’m a low-interest-rate person.” From an interview with Reuters: “I’m not a person that thinks Janet Yellen is doing a bad job.”
So, just to be clear, Ben: if Trump keeps interest rates artificially low in order to keep asset prices afloat, you’ll be 100% in favor of that, right? Or take a wait-and-see approach and hold off on any kind of criticism? And you approve of Yellen, right?
You guys might also be interested to note that Paul Ryan recently he said he will not fund any kind of deportation of illegal aliens who are not convicted of a non-immigration criminal offense. According to an interview with CBS just yesterday, VP Pence said that he’s working with Ryan on an immigration bill. He reiterated that the bill would result in the deportation of criminal aliens. He avoided saying anything about the over 10 million illegal aliens in the country who do not have a non-immigration-related criminal conviction on their record. I’m just going to assume that, if Ryan puts forward a bill that replicates previous “comprehensive immigration reform” attempts sponsored by the Gang of 8, which means amnesty for some 10 million+ individuals, and Trump/Pence support that, that you’ll be 100% in favor too?
As I said before, he slayed the establishment Screech and the Bush crime family. Anything we get beyond that is gravy.
+1
‘if Trump keeps interest rates artificially low in order to keep asset prices afloat, you’ll be 100% in favor of that, right? Or take a wait-and-see approach and hold off on any kind of criticism? And you approve of Yellen, right?’
Nobody can set or manipulate prices for large markets indefinitely. Just like years prior, these houses wouldn’t be so out of whack with reality if there weren’t millions of greedy people diving in. Have you turned on a TV the past few years? Flipping shows have never been more popular.
Every body involved is to blame, like before.
I really am not that interested in politics and the older I get the more it bores me. This election was exciting because a non-establishment candidate won, but am I the only one who thinks the election cycle could be cut by 3/4ths? Jeebus that took too long.
Whatever is gonna happen will happen, and stress kills you know. There’s going to be some cheap, cash flowing apartments in the future. That’s what I’m focusing on.
There will be millions of cheap cash flowing apartments and houses.
Hold on to every dollar you’ve got and shed debt( default if necessary). You’ll thank us later.
“As I said before, he slayed the establishment Screech and the Bush crime family. Anything we get beyond that is gravy.”
Yep, that right there was awesome in and of itself.
Trump vs JEB! compilation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7LUFiUZX84
Brolic, what’s the point of your posts? Are you looking for some “gotcha” moment? Some brush of hypocrisy with which to paint Trump supporters? Must supporters of a candidate support every single platform, or can we be intellectually honest and understand there is a give-and-take with every political candidate?
Lastly, can we at least see what the guy does upon actually taking his seat in the Oval Office before going through these stupid thought exercises?
“Nobody can set or manipulate prices for large markets indefinitely.”
That’s right, Ben. Eventually the price manipulation will fail. That much goes without saying on a blog like this. We’ve all seen it play out before.
However, that doesn’t mean policymakers won’t stop their attempts at manipulating those prices. As we all know, monetary policy can certainly delay the inevitable crash/price-reset. Our government also currently plays a huge role in determining winners/losers when that inevitable fall-to-earth does come about. That’s really what I’m curious about, the efforts at manipulating prices, which have an impact on our economy even if they ultimately fail.
I’m just trying to gauge where you stand with regards to President Trump’s emphatic support for Janet Yellen and the Fed’s low interest-rate policies. Is it fair to assume that you also share those stances? And, in as much as those stances are shared by President Obama and many Congressional Democrats like Nancy Pelosi, I assume you stand with them on that issue as well? You see, it’s a bit confusing because a few posts up you critique the Central Bank, yet you seem to be very wary of anyone who appraises President Trump with anything even remotely approaching a critical eye.
“Just like years prior, these houses wouldn’t be so out of whack with reality if there weren’t millions of greedy people diving in. Have you turned on a TV the past few years? Flipping shows have never been more popular.”
And those flipping shows and that mania you describe would still be in effect if the Fed rate was 7%, there was no federal support or financing for the GSEs that end up purchasing most mortgage debt, and no Fed purchases of MBS right? It’s HGTV and TLC, or whatever channels those shows are on, that’s driving this all while Federal policies play no role in this, is that right? That is not my appraisal of the situation, to be honest. Just curious, when the pro-Trump readers of this site critique Ben Bernanke, can you please remind them that Bernanke’s played no role in creating this mess, it was TV shows.
“Looks like Mnuchin is just itching to sell off Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That’s a huge plus. I’ve no doubt that most of the spoils will go to the bottom feeders looking to buy in bulk and turn a profit, but it’s time for those two GSEs to go.”
Actually, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been in conservatorship with the government since 2008 meltdown. So all their profits have gone to the government in the past 8 years. The GSEs have now repaid all their problems, and then some. Because of that, a bunch of private-sector investors in the GSEs who have not been getting their dividend payments all these years have had lawsuits against the government, because the private-sector investors want that money instead. I posted an article about it a couple of weeks back, it is interesting.
A lot of people have been calling for the GSEs to get released back out into the wild, so to speak. Looks like they are going to do it now. At least the government won’t have to deal with any more lawsuits.
President Trump reigns supreme in the empty skulls of many… . Rent free.
‘it was TV shows’
Banned. Buh bye.
Thanks for the clarification. I guess the term “divest” would be more appropriate.
Pretty sure the Fed will still be buying all the GSE debt. That is one of the main things the Fed buys, and I don’t think any of that changes. The Fed owns a good chunk of the US housing.
Does it really matter considering housing demand is at 20 year lows and falling and borrowing costs ramping up?
Mafia, and a lot of the tax benefits enacted in the last bubble are going away in a month. In particular the ones about loan modifications and forgiveness. You were gone at the time, but there was an article about it using the phrase, “crushing tax demands”.
I thought of you.
crushing.tax.demands
As I said before, he slayed the establishment Screech and the Bush crime family. Anything we get beyond that is gravy.
+infinity, Ben. That’s similar to what I’ve been telling people myself: the guy blew up two political parties, both of which needed to be blown up.
The real sleaze is at the central bank.
It’s a hydra, though, Ben—many heads, one common purpose.
I mean no offense to the rare good people, but I think the real estate “industry” is very sleazy, and is full of sleazy people.
Trump was born into that industry.
Mafia, it does kind of matter in a sense when the Fed owns so much of our housing debt. That’s real property they own, actual land and stuff.
Tin-foil hat in me, etc..
This is dedicated to BrolicMillennial
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OY4jondX6tg
How did the Fed get into real estate investment? Isn’t that a violation of its own mandate?
Not really.
We’re gonna kick China’s ASS!
Maybe Trump could get the ball rolling by imposing a Vancouver-style tax on Chinese real estate investors who buy residential U.S. housing that would otherwise be owner-occupied by U.S. citizens.
It sounds like just the sort of thing he’d do, especially if Red China keeps throwing temper tantrums.
Bada-BING! Any questions?
“Can the Trump cheerleaders here clarify something? I see that many of those who ardently love Trump are the same people who refer to Goldman Sachs (and many of the other headline, TBTF Wall St. institutions) as vampire squids, the oligarchy, part of the Elite, etc.
Am I missing something?”
Perhaps you failed to notice the wool that Trump successfully pulled over his followers’ eyes.
The Financial Times
Donald Trump
Trump’s wealthy cabinet choices hark back to Gilded Age
Few precedents for collection of billionaires and their lack of government experience
Wilbur Ross, Elaine Chao, Donald Trump, Betsy Devos and Steven Mnuchin
yesterday
by: Shawn Donnan in Washington
Donald Trump ran for president as a populist champion of America’s blue-collar workers, railing against the hold the rich have on US politics and vowing to “drain the swamp”. But as he constructs his cabinet he is turning to fellow plutocrats in a way historians say they have not seen since the Gilded Age.
…
Let’s see if trump chops fed heads
Bushbama hired tons
…the Trump plan solves a non-existent problem: It turns out that the huge federal bureaucracy is not that huge. The civilian federal workforce is smaller than it’s been in 50 years, when the U.S. population was only 62 percent what it is today. If anything, it’s too small, not too large.
…
it’s too small, not too large.
Bunny inspectors
Misleading at best. Even if number of federal workers identified in an org chart remained stable or slightly declined compared with 50 years ago, the federal gov’t has exploded during that time period.
“The numbers of political appointees doubled from the 1960s to the 1990s, but the number of congressional staff more than tripled over the same period.” — who is paying for that, the political appointees?
“Post-1960 Federal America has become a grotesque Leviathan by proxy, in which an expanding mass of state and local government workers, for-profit contractors, and nonprofit grant recipients administers a vast portion of federal money and responsibilities. Beginning in the 1960s, the War on Poverty, the Vietnam War, and growing public demands for Washington to do more on issues from street crime and health care to environmental protection and veterans affairs led to government’s expansion.” — Just because the employment numbers don’t show up as “federal”, doesn’t mean they’re not employed using federal dollars
Of course federal gov’t has exploded in size because the federal deficit has exploded. I completely disagree with yours, and the washington post reporter’s, implication that by hiring more federal works and keeping gov’t in house instead of with contractors, etc. that we’d be better off. In my estimation, limiting the scope of federal gov’t reach is the only way to limit its size. Until that happens, those of us actually paying state and federal income taxes to support said bloated infrastructure will continue to be screwed.
The failure of government knows no bounds.
“Just because the employment numbers don’t show up as “federal”, doesn’t mean they’re not employed using federal dollars”
Thanks for posting that. The whole federal “contractor” thing is what’s exploded and I think it’s gross.
And there are services I don’t think should EVER be contracted out, most importantly, the prison system. A private prison system almost insures the increase in prisoners.
Probably not a good idea to privately contract your extraordinary rendition services, either.
Those are some interesting quotes somedewd:
“demands for Washington to do more on issues from street crime and health care to environmental protection and veterans affairs led to government’s expansion”
and
“those of us actually paying state and federal income taxes to support said bloated infrastructure will continue to be screwed”
A pretty healthy majority of Americans want clear air and water, Medicare and veterans’ benefits. So I guess some taxpayers are going to be screwed forever.
“And there are services I don’t think should EVER be contracted out, most importantly, the prison system. A private prison system almost insures the increase in prisoners.”
LOL. I agree with you. Yes, you are right. With the awesome power of free market economics and the prison system, we’d ALL be living in jails eventually.
Prof Bear
You have got to be kidding - are you trying to pull our legs ?
Private industry - say refining - are using their computers effectively and have only about 20% of the staff they had 20 years ago to do even more than they did back then.
But not the government. Only marginally less.
u cant go wrong with CA real estate!
I was reading the article at the bottom of this post on The Cavalier Daily, when I was done I clicked on their Sports section and much to my surprise I found…
How to keep laughing after the election
by Nora Walls | Dec 02 2016 | 22 hours ago
“So, Your Next President Is A Total Bigot.” In your post-election turmoil, you might be wondering: What do we do now?
(The Cavalier Daily is the independent daily news organization at the University of Virginia)
Homophobic, sexist, anti-white language abundant in Charlottesville vice mayor’s tweets
Wes Bellamy’s tweets contrast with other published messages of unity,
empowerment
by Anna Higgins and Tim Dodson | Nov 28 2016 | 11/28/16 2:50am
In an October 2011 tweet, Bellamy answered a question prompted by another user, “Does it make males uncomfortable wen girls are so upfront about sex??” with “It only makes faggots uncomfortable …”
The anti-gay slur also appears in tweets about the number of times someone has sex and having a clean house.
These tweets contrast with Bellamy’s tweet pushing for unity immediately following the mass shooting at Orlando gay nightclub Pulse in June, which left 49 dead.
“I don’t care if you’re gay, straight, trams, black, white, blue, or purple … YOU DESERVE EQUAL RIGHTS AND YOU HAVE THE RIGHT TO BE SAFE!” Bellamy tweeted on June 13.
Tweets that expressed criticism of white people led Kessler to label Bellamy as an “anti-white racist.”
“I DONT LIK WHIT PEOPLE SO I HATE WHITE SNOW!!!!! FML!!!!” he tweeted in Dec. 2009.
Other tweets compared white women to the devil and criticized the appearance of white women in sundresses.
Virginia Flaggers, a group which has opposed removing statues of Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson from Lee Park and Jackson Park, respectively, urged people to contact City Council and “demand he be removed from office” in a Facebook post Saturday.
Bellamy responded to his critics in a Facebook post Sunday evening.
“I am not a black supremacist, a racist, a misogynist nor am I any of the other things [Kessler] purports me to be,” Bellamy said. “What I am is a son, a husband, a father, a teacher and a proud member of this community who works every day to improve the city we live in.”
Another one of Bellamy’s tweets from October 2011 commented, “word…” on a tweet describing sexual assault.
“Word…RT: TAXSTONE: Eat it while she asleep if she moan it aint rape,” the retweet read.
Several tweets also linked white women to rape accusations, and one retweet said white women “smell like future assault charges n deli meat.”
Other tweets from 2009 explicitly described sex acts using vulgar terms to describe women’s genitals.
http://www.cavalierdaily.com/article/2016/11/wes-bellamy-charlottesville-twitter
Remember my good friends….. Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.
Nothing?
2 men and a Cage
Football on the way out? Why not, nothing lasts forever.
http://nypost.com/2016/12/03/american-football-could-fall-like-the-gladiators-of-ancient-rome/
Next up, MMA.
I saw this while I was looking at your Football story. I don’t think I could have gone through what this father did and come out of it being able to talk.
Teen bullied with fake sex profiles kills herself in front of family
By Jackie Salo December 1, 2016
http://nypost.com/2016/12/01/teen-bullied-with-fake-sex-profiles-kills-herself-in-front-of-family/
Geez, I dunno what to say. This sort of thing is horrible for a young person, it’s one of the curses of the internet. I hope they get the people who harassed her.
I just saw the Ban Van wheeling around town.
Do you have any inside info, Mafi?
Hey Donk
Paul Craig Roberts has a thoughtful article on Trump’s administration appointments. Have been Assistant Treasury Secretary under Reagan, he has a good understanding of how the process works and the realities that must be dealt with.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-03/trumps-appointments-what-do-they-mean
“Does Trump’s choice of Steve Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary mean that Goldman Sachs will again be in charge of US economic policy? Possibly, but we do not know. We will have to wait and see. Mnuchin left Goldman Sachs 14 years ago. He has been making movies in Hollywood and started his own investment firm. Many people have worked for Goldman Sachs and the New York Banks who have become devastating critics of the banks. Read Nomi Prins’ books and visit Pam Martens website, Wall Street on Parade. My sometimes coauthor Dave Kranzler is a former Wall Streeter.”
“What about the hot-headed generals announced as National Security Advisor and Secretary of Defense? Both seem to be death on Iran, which is stupid and unfortunate. However, keep in mind that Gen. Flynn is the one who blew the whistle on the Obama regime for rejecting the advice of the DIA and sending ISIS to overthrow Assad. Flynn said that ISIS was a “willful decision” of the Obama administration, not some unexpected event.
And keep in mind that Gen. Mattis is the one who told Trump that torture does not work, which caused Trump to back off his endorsement of torture.
So both of these generals, as bad as they may be, are an improvement on what came before. Both have shown independence from the neoconservative line that supports ISIS and torture.”
Improvement. That’s the thing to look for.
I’m giving Trump the benefit of the doubt, for now. Once he has actual responsibility for governance he has to be more pragmatic, but he better not betray his base. In any event, his administration is bound to be orders of magnitude better than what Crooked Hillary and her DNC collectivists and crony capitalists would’ve foisted on us.
I look for improvement. If someone has been ill for a very long time, do we expect them to suddenly spring up and go for a run? No, we validate the improvement and look for more. A steadily improving situation is the important thing. What about the person who has lost their job and does deeply into debt to maintain his family? Do we expect him to find an even better job immediately and pay off all his debt right away? No, we validate a diligent search for employment and income, congratulate when a new job or source of income is found and encourage paying off the debt and further improvement of the situation. We don’t badger the guy because he didn’t immediately win the lottery or come into an inheritance.
Here was an improvement, immediately following Trump’s election:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/732135/donald-trump-election-defcon-reduced-level-5-safest-level
Defcon level reduced to safest level. That’s a good start. So is discrediting the Bush cabal.
He has not taken office yet, and people are sniping from the sidelines with their noses all out of joint.
If the US and China get into a major conflict, will we expropriate all the housing snapped up by Chinese embezzlers and money launderers in reprisal for them expropriating our China-based manufacturing base?
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/12/02/the-coming-war-on-china/
Our corporate media border collies cannot grasp the concept of illegal alien voters. This willful ignorance can only be corrected if millions of ‘Muricans cut the cable and stop subsidizing such Oligopoly propaganda.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/12/03/cnn-host-alisyn-comerota-cant-fathom-illegal-alien-voters/
“CNN Host Alisyn Comerota Can’t Fathom Illegal Alien Voters…”
Evidently CNN Host Alisyn Comerota hasn’t seen this yet.
Obama Encourages Illegal Immigrants To Vote
Published on Nov 5, 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCLO0WBvhF8
Column Should California secede? How the state is politically out-of-step with the rest of the country
Michael Hiltzik
Contact Reporter
November 29, 2016
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-cal-secession-20161127-story.html
California should be expelled, and its pestilent population permanently barred from resettling in Red states unless they can demonstrate active resistance to the Bolshevik Democrats maladministering the People’s Republic of Kalifornia.