The Glory Days Of House Selling Are Over
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Miami condo sales continue to stagnate, new sales figures show. In a sober tone, ISG principal Craig Studnicky spoke to a crowd of about 500 real estate agents and industry insiders about the state of the preconstruction condo market in South Florida, referencing the challenges agents and developers have faced and the ‘lack of urgency’ among buyers in 2016. ‘It’s really, really tough to sell real estate when you can’t find a sense a urgency,’ Studnicky said. Studnicky called out various news reports about the flood of tens of thousands of condos coming to market in Miami, and the claim that buyers are ‘better off waiting.’ ‘How the hell do you close a condo with that kind of press?’ he asked the crowd.”
“Cipriani in Midtown was abuzz Tuesday night as hundreds of the city’s most powerful brokers, developers and lenders descended on law firm Fried Frank’s annual holiday extravaganza. But while the mood was undoubtedly festive, even the brokers had to admit the market outlook seemed a little grimmer than it did this time last year. Toll Brothers’ David Von Spreckelsen complained about how excess condo inventory was hurting sales velocity in Manhattan. ‘There’s just so many apartments out there,’ he said.”
“During Donald Trump’s campaign, he promised a mass deportation of all illegal immigrants, which could have an impact on housing markets across the country, especially Arizona. According to a Pew Hispanic report, in 2014 there were an estimated 300,000 unauthorized immigrants living in Arizona. Mark Stapp, executive director of the masters of real estate development program at the W.P. Carrey School of Business at Arizona State University, said that sending so many people out of the state could create a large over-supply of housing. ‘You’re probably going to see some playback in capital rushing to apartments,’ Stapp said.”
“Job growth in the East Bay is also expected to slow to between 1 percent and 1.5 percent over the next year, down from 2.7 percent growth between October 2015 and October 2016. Beacon’s economists blame the slowing job growth on a familiar culprit — higher housing costs. ‘Net migration is expected to dramatically decline over the next few years,’ Beacon Economics said. That spells bad news for residential real estate. Beacon said the San Francisco area rental market ‘appears to be approaching the end of frenzied growth.’ The firm expects multifamily permitting activity will fall by 18 to 24 percent in 2017, as compared to 2016, as ‘demand for apartments in the region’s pricier submarkets continues to cool.’”
“Consultancy JLL noted there have been 214 mortgagee listings so far this year - including 156 residential properties. ‘We foresee a 10 to 20 per cent increase in mortgagee sales for 2017 compared to this year,’ said Ms Mok Sze Sze, head of auction and sales for Singapore at JLL. Private residential rents weakened by 3 per cent in the first nine months of the year, and ERA Realty Network foresees a further 3 to 4 per cent drop next year owing to the increased supply of new homes and weaker leasing demand.”
“Property agents said landlords have been dropping rents and throwing in sweeteners such as new furniture and fittings to attract or retain tenants. ‘Many landlords who have bought their properties three to four years ago are settling for rents that don’t cover their mortgage payment because they went in at a high price and the market has weakened since,’ PropNex Realty senior associate director Anthea Yeo told The Straits Times.”
“Analysts said some properties were sold at significant losses this year, including a unit at Sentosa Cove condo Turquoise that went for $3.8 million. The seller had bought it at $7.16 million in 2007. Another apartment on the eighth floor at Seascape - also in Sentosa Cove - was resold at $6.35 million in October, down from its $11 million purchase price in 2011.”
“An economist has advised local property developers to unload themselves of unsold units by offering discounts as they face competition from their counterparts from China. Speaking to FMT, Hoo Ke Ping noted that the Chinese developers were typically catering to their rich compatriots and had to price their properties at above RM1 million a unit. Only a few Malaysians could afford to buy those homes, he pointed out.”
“‘The problem Malaysian developers will face is that many of them have built expensive homes that they have not been able to sell,’ he said. ‘So not only is there an oversupply, but the local developers are now facing competition from the Chinese in the high-end property sector.’”
“Amid the prolonged slowdown in residential real estate and the demonetisation’s economic fallout, several companies have been unable to attract buyers for their surplus land. Over the last year, demand in Mumbai’s real estate market has been flat. Moreover, prices are expected to fall by at least 15-20% as demand may drop further due to demonetisation. Analysts say the current market environment is not conducive because there is too much uncertainty on the sale of finished products.”
“‘There will be uncertainty for the next six months. Land is valued on the basis of backward calculation. So people will be wary of buying land,’ said Gulam Zia, executive director at realty consultancy Knight Frank.”
“As sparkling white snow settles on Stettler and area streets, homes and parks, the real estate market slows down as it does every year. Despite the winter slow down, and despite the tepid economy, it’s been a pretty good year for Fran Snowden at Century 21 Candor Realty. ‘Lower price homes sell well,’ Snowden said. ‘The higher priced ones are at a bit of a standstill.’”
“The picture Snowden paints with her observations is very similar to those of realtor James Dadensky, who has worked for more than 20 years in the industry. ‘Of course, the recession isn’t helping,’ Dadensky said. ‘But it’s not as bad as people think.’”
“Business is relatively steady, though like Snowden, Dadensky is now in the midst of the winter slump. During the summer, though, houses on the market didn’t stay there long, he said. ‘As long as people price their homes at market value, they will sell,’ he said. ‘It’s when they price high, they don’t. The glory days of house selling is over.’”
‘Analysts said some properties were sold at significant losses this year, including a unit at Sentosa Cove condo Turquoise that went for $3.8 million. The seller had bought it at $7.16 million in 2007. Another apartment on the eighth floor at Seascape - also in Sentosa Cove - was resold at $6.35 million in October, down from its $11 million purchase price in 2011.’
Can we say the bubble has popped yet?
‘Studnicky called out various news reports about the flood of tens of thousands of condos coming to market in Miami, and the claim that buyers are ‘better off waiting.’ ‘How the hell do you close a condo with that kind of press?’ he asked the crowd.’
‘Toll Brothers’ David Von Spreckelsen complained about how excess condo inventory was hurting sales velocity in Manhattan. ‘There’s just so many apartments out there,’ he said.’
They weren’t complaining when the press was talking them up.
This situation absolutely requires Mr. Studnicky to stamp his little feet.
The Unreal, Eerie Emptiness of China’s ‘Ghost Cities’
Slide show at the top.
‘China has built hundreds of new cities over the last three decades as it reshapes itself into an urbanized nation with a plan to move 250 million rural inhabitants—more than six times the population of California—into cities by 2026. The newly minted cities help showcase the political accomplishments of local government officials, who reason that real estate and urban development is a safe, high-return investment that can help fuel economic growth.’
‘But it’s hard to start a city from scratch. Most people don’t want to live somewhere that feels dead, and these new cities sometimes lack the jobs and commerce needed to support those who would live there. In Kangbashi, the government used some administrative tricks to address this, relocating bureaucratic buildings and schools, then trying to convince people in surrounding villages to move in. It had minor success. Today, a city designed for at least 500,000 has around 100,000 inhabitants.’
“Cities and districts built without demand or necessity resulted in what some Chinese scholars have termed, literally,’walls without markets’,” says William Hurst, political science professor at Northwestern University. “Or what we might translate as uncompleted or hollow cities. Political exigency and investment hysteria trumped economic calculus or consideration of genuine human needs.”
‘Caemmerer learned about these cities early last year after reading a slew of “almost sensationalist” articles that painted them as modern ghost towns. Fascinated, he decided to visit China and see them himself. He spent almost three months exploring three cities during two trips last spring and fall.’
Has it sunk in yet that many of these urban wastelands are never going to be occupied?
Make a great movie set for the plague or something.
Greetings from Brisbane. Today, as I waited in traffic on the corner of Adelaide and Creek St’s, I noticed yet another skyscraper under construction. A big sign said, “Luxury student units coming soon. Reserve now!” Empty towers going up everywhere in downtown Brisbane! Another one says, “Retire here!”…..
Going under, down under?
I guess its better than “Die here!”, but Brisbane? Luxury student units? What are those “students” studying, didgeridoo? Australia is mostly a nation of blue collar types, luxury student housing is of no use - except to those employed to build them I guess.
mostly a nation of blue collar types
That’s true of every nation.
“That’s true of every nation.”
+1 Some of ‘em are pulling a rickshaws while others are driving 4-door pickup trucks. Location.
If that’s mostly true of every nation, then why the stunned SJW meltdowns on election night?
People must have been stunned because the polls were off. I think that Trump and his people were also surprised.
At every rally he said repeatedly he would win bigly. He said the polls were wrong. Sometimes multiple rallies a day would draw 10, 15, 20 thousands of people while Clinton might get 100 or 500 once a week. Near the end his plane was 3 hours late to Michigan and 15,000 people were waiting in the cold at 1 AM.
Maybe you saw the wikileaks where Her<- people discussed skewing the polls to favor Screech? See, it was all an effort to demoralize Trump supporters, as was the coordinated 24/7 media bombardment. People were stunned because they are out of touch with the working class which abandoned the Democrats by the millions.
“Her<- people discussed skewing the polls to favor Screech”
This is news to me. Screech was so far ahead in the (skewed) polls that some disaffected Dems felt safe in voting for Jill Stein or Gary Johnson, staying home (*black community*), or even voting for Trump. That took enough votes away from Clinton to sink her in the Rust Belt. If the Her<- people had allowed the polls to stay close, more would have voted for her, possibly enough for her to win.
Thus, it was Her<- own contempt which brought about her downfall. Sweet irony, no?
That must be why he made allegations of fraudulent voting. Based on the crowd sizes, he should have had 90% of the vote, instead of winning by such a small margin.
Reality tends to do that to people living a lie.
‘more would have voted for her’
How many would have voted for Her< - if the media wasn't 100% in the bag? I mentioned the day I decided to tune the media out. I was driving all day and every 30 minutes on the radio they'd have a news break. Every single time it was some vicious attacks on Trump and fawning over Clinton. And you know who was doing the news? Fox.
I told rio a year and a half ago to enjoy the coronation. If the Democrats had fielded half a clown car, had them hash it out over real issues, maybe a populist would have emerged. All the signs were there people wanted change. But nooo, it was Her<- turn. She didn't have a penis!
Still peddling fiction
That’s Donk for you.
Those arm-in-arm closeness photos make more sense now that we know she can’t make it up stairs alone…
she forgot to wear her ‘depends’ on the day of that photo.
If the Her<- people had allowed the polls to stay close, more would have voted for her, possibly enough for her to win.
Of course, this assumes that she did something to the polls, other than just discussing doing something.
“she forgot to wear her ‘depends’ on the day of that photo.”
Oh my word you’re right!!!! Daaaaaaamn that’s horrific!
Oh, so THAT’S why she’s wearing purple these days. Better camouflage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPxiXGr9nFM
It’s not really fiction, it is one of many post-mortems that was discussed. The voting totals support the theory.
Hillary lost my vote in 1993.
Ewwwww, icky!
“The Dallas Police and Fire Pension System’s Board of Trustees suspended lump-sum withdrawals from the pension fund Thursday, staving off a possible restraining order and stopping $154 million in withdrawal requests.”
What a recipe….
1. Democrat controlled Dallas
2. Dallas - a sanctuary city
3. Guaranteed 8% returns on civil service pensions
4. Pension Fund actually losing money after speculating in commercial real estate.
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/dallas-city-hall/2016/12/08/dallas-police-fire-pension-board-ends-run-bank-stops-154m-withdrawals
But they did it for the children…
A promise is a promise…
You owe us…
Public unions are the largest political campaign donors of all time…
Declare bankruptcy. Null the pensions. End the Ponzi scheme.
more like roll back all the pension spiking base it only on base wages not the last 3 years which includes ot sick pay etc. no full payout unless you are fully retired and have no other w2 job otherwise full payout when you turn 65 or even 70
we paid for a poll and 73% said make gov workers wait till 66 to retire
except Oxide
Poor Donk. Poor poor Donk.
Wrong type of gov. Most of the pension abuses that you read about are at the local and state level, with Fire and LEO in the lead.
For feds, the FERS pension formula is simple: 1% * years service * high three. So, a fed worker who works in gov for 25 years and makes $100K in his top three years gets a pension of $25K. Bureaucrats get very little overtime too, so the high three isn’t stacked. And payments don’t start until age 62, even if the fed quits before that, so that should please DJ.
If a fed wants to retire with more, they have to contribute to a TSP, which is basically a 401K.
‘Bureaucrats get very little overtime’
They get paid by the hour? Are you saying salaried guvment types get overtime?
I’m pretty sure they’ll be on their third martini at 3PM today.
And they still haven’t done anything useful by 3.
I don’t know about the professional staff. The support/clerical staff is on salary, but they are not allowed to work more than 40 hours without compensation. If there is an urgent project, the supervisors can get approval for some paid overtime, but not much. Budgets are pretty tight.
I brought it up as a comparison to the examples of police and fire, who routinely get 10-20 hours weekly overtime.
If there is an urgent project, the supervisors can get approval for some paid overtime, but not much. Budgets are pretty tight.
Wait, these folks aren’t exempt from overtime, like the rest of us? I’m surprised that I’m surprised, actually….
I’ll settle for a 10% RIF
then 50% consolidation
but keep the Donk
I don’t really know, but I guess the feds are under different pay rules. For example, under the older retirement system (CSRS), you didn’t pay into Social Security, but you didn’t get SS payments either. That’s why the old pensions were so large.
In the mid 1980’s, the CSRS system was replaced with FERS. They let the current feds keep CSRS, but newbies had to sign up with FERS. There are still a few old workers who came in pre-1985 who are going to get CSRS when they (finally) retire.
I was surprised to hear about the overtime too. They really don’t like to grant overtime. There are a couple ways where you can work extra hours one day and take those hours off on some other day. You have to max that out before they allow overtime.
You won’t need much of a RIF. The attrition rate is going up as the feds age. If they stop hiring, you’ll have a 10% RIF by the mid-terms. Problem is, attrition doesn’t always come from the department you want it to.
I work for one of the federal agencies where the above is true. We have to get advanced approval for OT - some managers allow it, others don’t.
They are hiring like CRAZY right now, trying to get as many new people in the door before the end of this administration, anticipating a hiring freeze at the beginning of next year.
It’s funny, because it’s not really about the workload, it’s about taking advantage of the opportunity to hire more people. Whether or not there will be any work for the new hires is secondary.
“They are hiring like CRAZY right now…”
LGBT?
William Black (former Fed Bank Regulator/Esquire/now Econ Prof)has a fantastic youtube video on the recipe for robbing b*nks (pensions as well) from the inside, and so forth, not going to prison, and keeping all the proceeds. Black is such a truth teller. Gotta respect this guy. He had a great explanation of the S&L crash of ‘84, 2008, and the financial wild west.
A lot of municipalities have a DROP type option in their retirement plan for Police / Fire. Dallas’ is/was extremely generous in light of the fact the pay is less in Dallas than surrounding areas.
The primary issue with Dallas’ plan was management. They screwed up bigly and should be sued for negligence. Not sure how much being a Democrat city had to do with the mismanagement. It was mostly bad investment decisions.
Also, there are varying degrees of ’sanctuary city’ and Dallas, if one at all, isn’t a very illegal friendly one. Dallas county was sued for holding illegals longer than is constitutionally allowed. I don’t think that’s the kind of sanctuary illegals are seeking.
Our Betters are eating crow: best compilation of smug, clueless Establishment types assuring us Trump would never be President.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.mx/2016/12/making-predictions-is-tough.html
Mark Hanson @MrMarkHanson Dec 6
Mark Hanson Retweeted ValueWalk
And remember what we learned from 2007-11. PEOPLE RATHER PAY CAR & CARDS THAN MORTGAGE. This doesn’t bode well for HOUSING BUBBLE 2.0.Mark Hanson added,
ValueWalk @valuewalk
As #Subprime_Auto_Loan Delinquencies Spike, Parallels And Differences With 2008 Housing Crisis Linger http://dlvr.it/Mq4X5Y
Mark Hanson @MrMarkHanson Dec 6
BEND OVER “PUBLIC”. NEWS: 1) CHINESE DEVELOPERS: “See Danger US Real Estate Is Peaking”. 2) BLACKSTONE: Taking Rental Homes Unit Public.
Mark Hanson @MrMarkHanson Dec 5
Mark Hanson Retweeted Diana Olick
Good story on RATE SURGE impact to housing. Says purch power $16k less. My research shows PURCH POWER DOWN ~$27,000. http://mhanson.com/2396-2/
Mark Hanson @MrMarkHanson Dec 5
BlackStone Cashing-Out of Resi Housing as “Rental Backed Securities” market never transpired as hoped. Big sign.
‘“Rental Backed Securities” market never transpired as hoped.’
Well d’oh…
“Total household net worth is now nearly five times the size of US GDP. In 2007, at the top of the prior bubble, household net worth was $66.5 trillion, or about 4.5 times the size of GDP, before it all blew up.”
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/12/08/calamity-economy-performs-household-wealth-miracle/
Are Mortgage Rates Primed For Free Fall?
December 8, 2016
Mortgage rates have risen very far, very fast. Mortgage rate shoppers could be pleasantly surprised by a coming “reverse correction”. Mortgage Rates May Have Risen Too Far, Too Fast
http://themortgagereports.com/23922/freddie-mac-pmms-mortgage-rates-december-8-2016
Do u folks remember what burst the bubble last time? Yes, it was a series of interest rate hikes at what seemed a very bad time for some people.
And ran out of greater fools.
Yeah, the market topped even before the first rate hike, the hikes were just the soundtrack to the train wreck. Fall of 2003 Rancho Santa Fe inventory went up yuge, rich people trying to get out while the getting was good. North Park (San Diego) was still bubbling in 2005 but it was all over but the crying.
I sold my house in November of 2005. I remember the hype was tremendous in June of 2005. There were still a few excited fools in the market, but it was basically dead and I was quite relieved when we got an acceptable offer. Funny that you didn’t see prices truly start falling until 2008. So what happened in between? Very low volume but bag holders still dreaming of the big score and holding out?
We sold just a month before you. I remember what happened after that. The “freeze”, where buyers were scarce and those that were in the market, weren’t willing to pay top dollar. Sellers were stubborn “I’m not giving it away”. Then things started to go awry here and there. MERS and fraud and that sort of thing. Two years of “stagnation”, so to speak.
So what happened in between? Very low volume but bag holders still dreaming of the big score and holding out?
Yup. Agree with Palmetto. We were watching the whole thing on HBB. I called 2006-2007 the “Mexican standoff” as flippers tried to sell and there was nobody left to buy. Everyone had already bought. The only people left were dregs that couldn’t even get a fog-a-mirror loan, and “smart money” who were waiting for a crash.
Prices didn’t start dropping until 2008 because that’s when the interest-only and negative amortization loans began to reset. Those loans typically had grace periods of 3 years, so anyone who bought in 2005 could ride out 2006 and 2007 and not give it away. But they would see a yuge jump in monthly payment starting in 2008, and they knew it.
We could see the desperation creeping in in late 2007, as that reset date approached and they still couldn’t sell. And they couldn’t drop the price. Not only because they were stubborn, but because they had no equity and no cash to bring to the table and they couldn’t afford even one month of that higher mortgage payment.
And that’s before they lost all their jobs in the 2008 crash.
Donk,
Have you decided when you’re gonna dump that shack?
Prices didn’t start dropping until 2008
False; Case-Shiller showed San Diego begin the decline in Dec 2005, and most of the rest of the country begin the decline at varying points in 2006. Ok, maybe the declines were sharper in 2008—but they were dropping long before that.
US Mortgage Rates Continue Post-Election Surge
By the associated press
Dec 8, 2016, 2:50 PM ET
Long-term U.S. mortgage rates climbed for the sixth straight week in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s election win, marking new highs for the year.
…
crushing.housing.losses.
Double those losses if you financed that bad boy.
Let’s relocate a bunch of government agencies to the Midwest
Time to shift economic activity from the overcrowded coasts to places that need more of it.
America’s post-industrial Midwest is far from being the country’s poorest region. To find the direst economic conditions in the United States, one generally has to look toward Appalachia, the Mississippi Delta region, the Rio Grande Valley, and a smattering of heavily Native American counties in the Southwest and Great Plains. What the Midwest’s recent economic struggles bring, however, is not just large-scale political salience but a particular kind of fixability.
The poorest places in the United States have been poor for a very long time and lack the basic infrastructure of prosperity. But that’s not true in the Midwest, where cities were thriving two generations ago and where an enormous amount of infrastructure is in place. Midwestern states have acclaimed public university systems, airports that are large enough to serve as major hubs, and cities whose cultural legacies include major league pro sports teams, acclaimed museums, symphonies, theaters, and other amenities of big-city living.
But industrial decline has left these cities overbuilt, with shrunken populations that struggle to support the legacy infrastructure, and the infrastructure’s decline tends to only beget further regional decline.
At the same time, America’s major coastal cities are overcrowded. They suffer from endemic housing scarcity, massive traffic congestion, and a profound small-c political conservatism that prevents them from making the kind of regulatory changes that would allow them to build the new housing and infrastructure they need. Excess population that can’t be absorbed by the coasts tends to bounce to the growth-friendly cities of the Sunbelt that need to build anew what Milwaukee, Detroit, and Cleveland already have in terms of infrastructure and amenities.
A sensible approach would be for the federal government to take the lead in rebalancing America’s allocation of population and resources by taking a good hard look at whether so much federal activity needs to be concentrated in Washington, DC, and its suburbs. Moving agencies out of the DC area to the Midwest would obviously cause some short-term disruptions. But in the long run, relocated agencies’ employees would enjoy cheaper houses, shorter commutes, and a higher standard of living, while Midwestern communities would see their population and tax base stabilized and gain new opportunities for complementary industries to grow.
http://www.vox.com/new-money/2016/12/9/13881712/move-government-to-midwest
If the total of government employees was cut 50% - no one would notice.
And those special snowfalkes would then have to get a real job that actually requires work. Probably in a place that is affordable…
Like the midwest.
the sequester “paid vacation was proof
no one missed the non essentials
“If the total of government employees was cut 50% - no one would notice.”
Agreed
Yeah, probably no one would notice … until something bad happened. Then everyone would complain “Why didn’t *they* do something to stop it.”
The public has been trained to be helpless. Sound familiar?
Good point. When your plane crashes because the airline sends their aircraft to substandard mechanics, I’m sure you’ll be able to help yourself.
Those lowly mechanics seem to perform their job better than the helpless Feds who haven’t prevented a single aircraft accident.
‘until something bad happened’
Like $200 trillion in unfunded liabilities? Like 400,000 dead Syrian civilians or tens of thousands of dead people at the bottom of the Mediterranean? Golly I’m glad these people don’t have to work overtime.
helpless Feds who haven’t prevented a single aircraft accident
Do you have a link for that?
I’m not saying that the government does nothing of value, just that a lot of government employees do nothing of value,
not.a.single.aircraft.accident.
“not.a.single.aircraft.accident”
Next time Ted Cruz or similar jackass senator succeeds in another government shutdown attempt, the air traffic controllers should be prohibited from working. It would be a good way to test your theory.
Mechanics and ATC’s are two different tasks I believe.
Right, because there’s no way the private sector could have companies that would hire and direct air traffic controllers.
The government takes over, or has a monopoly on, certain functions which private business is then prohibited from providing, and this is used, by jackasses, as evidence of how much we need the government, and how much it does for us.
No thanks. We’ve moved out of those places because there is nothing left except old folks. No desire to move back to the rust belt, no matter how cheap it is or how short the commute would be.
With the imminent fed agency realignment on the horizon, adjusting to a replacement job at a fraction of the former pay might a more pressing issue.
‘Presented below are the 25 wealthiest counties (with populations of 65,000 or greater) in the United States by median household income according to the 2012 American Community Survey[3] prepared by the US Census Bureau. Six of the counties are located in the state of Maryland, five are in Virginia, four in New Jersey, three in New York, two in California, and one each in: Colorado, Georgia, Michigan, Tennessee, and Texas.’
1 Loudoun County Virginia $117,876
2 Fairfax County Virginia $112,436
3 Howard County Maryland $108,844
4 Hunterdon County New Jersey $105,186
5 Arlington County Virginia $100,474
6 Stafford County Virginia $97,606
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States
1 Loudoun County Virginia (Home of every major Defense Contractor)
2 Fairfax County Virginia (CIA)
3 Howard County Maryland (NSA)
4 Hunterdon County New Jersey (Rich Hedge Fund folks)
5 Arlington County Virginia (Pentagon)
6 Stafford County Virginia (Quantico)
See the pattern? It isn’t the low hanging fruit like the EPA or PBS that the right like to demonize. It is the Defense/Military and surveillance industries that makeup these wealthy areas. When Uncle Sugar pours wealth out of the Military Industrial Complex it enriches these areas. If you want to deflate the area and spread the wealth look at these Defense Agencies.
There are many more equal to or larger like Dept of (under) Education, Dept of health and human services, Fannie, Freddy, HUD.
The salaries at those defense contractors are a lot higher than government pay. A lot of people also get rich working for those K Street lobbying firms or as campaign consultants.
And all the money comes from these bloated ineffectual Fed agencies.
The Defense/Military/Intelligence agencies represent only 15% of the federal budget. Entitlement programs make up the vast majority.
Entitlement programs make up the vast majority.
And those entitlement programs spend little on their employees. The vast majority of their budgets goes to Social Security recipients, health care providers and so forth.
Correct. It’s taken from those who do, and given to those who don’t.
Yeah, all those lazy senior citizens just sit around and collect their checks. Consider also K-12 education. All of those kids who never worked a day in their lives get free education at taxpayer expense.
Of course, it’s also true of the armed forces. All of those slackers who don’t pay a dime in tax get free national security paid for by hardworking taxpayers.
Do you have some actual figures and links to back that up? Or are you just making things up, as per usual?
I never make things up. I’ll look for the information later, but it’s common sense. If the Social Security administration mostly prints and mails checks worth billions of dollars every month, the amount of money spent on paying the people who do that printing and mailing is going to be very small compared the value of those checks.
Here you go.
In FY2017, SSA’s programs are projected to pay a combined $1.0 trillion in federal benefits to
68.4 million recipients. Spending on administrative costs for these programs is projected to be
about 1.3% of benefit outlays.
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41716.pdf
so what mikey? low administration costs don’t mean it’s economically viable.
SSA. The most bloated and broke agency in the Fed Gov.
how the f*ck could it cost 1.3% of $1 trillion to administer SSA? $190 per recipient just to send a check drawn on an IOU account. Gotta love it.
so what mikey? low administration costs don’t mean it’s economically viable.
The topic is federal employees. I was asked a question and I answered it.
That’s what.
The Obama’s fed has become the minority employer of last resort in many areas of the country while the highly skilled are being hired away by the fed contractors who sometimes pay twice as much. The state and county workers have much better benefits than the fed and frequently a union too.
“The vast majority of their budgets goes to Social Security recipients, health care providers and so forth.”
I have friends who work in the California health care industry, and their salaries have done VERY well, COLA always keeping ahead of the CPI number.
“how the f*ck could it cost 1.3% of $1 trillion to administer SSA?”
Most poor households drawing disability are due to the breadwinner being dysfunctional for some reason, and a family member also draws some SS money too as a caregiver. It’s a hustle… but they also spend ALL their money back into the economy, which is a boost for the deplorable states. It’ll change, but evolution takes time.
The topic is federal employees. I was asked a question and I answered it.
so you admit your answer doesn’t mean that the ss program is viable.
That’s correct. We weren’t discussing that issue.
ok, but it seemed implied.
Social Security is in the hole. It’s a the largest federal government freebie going. Shut it down.
The SSA basically sends checks to people. Shocking that the administrative costs are that high. Does that include their pension costs?
And what about Medicare and Medicaid?
Whoot, #2!!!
in the 1950’s how many gov agencies?
how many now?
now you’ll say the 50’s scked
What innovators they must be in Maryland and Virginia! Eleven out of 25 richest counties. Five of the top 6. I’m sure there are tech startups and wealth being created all over the place. Or alternatively, it could be a bunch of do-nothing, overpaid leaches.
Now add on all the “consultants”. The entire scene is damn casual.
I just started a new gig this week and realized by day 3 it benefits from connections to the DC trough as it seeks to reinvent the wheel while ignoring human nature and claiming victories when they are anything but. Ugh.
Howard County H. Clinton 64.1%
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/maryland/
Arlington County H. Clinton 77.0%
Fairfax County H. Clinton 65.3%
Loudoun County H. Clinton 55.4%
Stafford County H. Clinton 42.7%
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/virginia/
A lot of overpaid sad pandas.
fairfax used to be gop.Gov workers are now a dem block like blacks etc.
When it snows 2 inches in N VA onlyy the military even try to get to work
RIF the rest !
except donk
Poor Donk.
Military…Biggest welfare program we have…
Actually Social (in)Security is.
yep, the military budget is small by comparison.
Creepy
small ??
600 Billion small…
Social security is welfare. Friggin moochers.
Given that the military industrial complex doesn’t pay a dedicated tax to fund the DoD, I would say that defense is the bigger cheese recipient.
The 50s were a lot better than 20s. A lot of the new agencies, like the EPA, NHTSA, and HCFA, were established because people wanted them to address problems in the country.
And they failed.
gov=failure
otherwise they need to get jobs in the private sector
No, they achieved a lot.
Nonsense
Here’s a thought: Compare our metro skies with those in places like Mexico City or Beijing. A colleague from Beijing once commented that the air in Denver was “unnaturally clean”
Even though it has doubled in size since the 1960’s, the skies in metro LA are less polluted today than back then.
There is a persistent myth that capitalism causes pollution and the government regulations keep the environment clean.
The real story is that courts have systematically allowed the pollution and overridden the private property rights which serve as a bulwark against pollution.
https://mises.org/library/libertarian-manifesto-pollution
EPA does not explain $20 Trillion in debt. Not even a scratch.
If a parent has a kid whose asthma is worsened due to pollution from millions of cars, it’s not possible to go and sue millions of people.
And the federal government failed at that too.
how can you prove a kid’s astma was worsened by car pollution?
the skies in metro LA are less polluted today than back then ??
Who the hell needs clean Water & Air…Fire up those Coal Plants trumpeters…
I was in San Jose Costa Rica in 1999. There was smog and you couldn’t breath downtown. The culprit was auto emissions. They still have 1950’s type belching buses etc. I don’t know about Arizona’s coal but there is one west of Winslow. Of course we could all be on hydro-electric if California hadn’t stolen our river years ago. We could have one dam after another all the way to the ocean. Some times of the year no water makes it to the mouth. Horrible eco-results too.
The culprit was auto emissions ??
And what state has the toughest emission standards ??
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwik6Zv88-fQAhVC-GMKHRMYDV4QFghLMAg&url=http%3A%2F%2Fusatoday30.usatoday.com%2Fnews%2Fnation%2F2004-09-25-calif-rule_x.htm&usg=AFQjCNH3Rmj8qEAQ7HTsoxwhDA20o1vwnw&sig2=j4jhaS5j-_FBo6NvPQdKwg&bvm=bv.141320020,d.cGc
Some times of the year no water makes it to the mouth. Horrible eco-results too ??
No way that Dam would be approved and built today on that grand river…I suspect they used the depression and the WPA program to get it through…
I grew up in LA and Orange County and remember the smog alerts.
Yes, the air is cleaner now. However, it will never be pristine due to the geography.
Now you have agencies that have done their job like CARB that should be disbanded but to keep the money coming in they have to keep finding smaller and smaller things to go after which end up costing us more and more money through tougher and tougher regulations.
And now we have a one-party controlled state. Can’t wait to see what comes next.
how can you prove a kid’s astma was worsened by car pollution?
I don’t anything about that area of the law. But if it can’t be proven in court, that would be another argument against using lawsuits to protect the environment.
But if it can’t be proven in court, that would be another argument against using lawsuits to protect the environment.
what argument would that be?
If it’s impossible to prove liability in count, then lawsuits are not an answer.
you mean regs should be written on something without even knowing if that something is causing the harm that the reg is meant to remedy?
If a parent has a kid whose asthma is worsened due to pollution from millions of cars, it’s not possible to go and sue millions of people.
The car owners aren’t the ones who caused this, and would not be the ones being sued. They didn’t design and build the cars.
No, there’s medical research that shows that pollution worsen symptoms. It’s not possible to prove which individual cars are at fault.
don’t tell him that! he’ll want to sue the oil companies or the car companies and force higher prices on us.
If there were to be lawsuits and torts and whatnot, the law would have to hold the owners of the cars liable. The other option would be enact new laws that would make GM, Toyota, etc. liable.
Sounds like a strategy to infect red states with blue state voting government leeches
+1. Imagine if each state and county had the power to ban people who were going to be a financial and social liability. The great diaspora of California equity locusts and DNC votes-for-entitlements freeloaders would come to a screeching halt.
“Moving agencies out of the DC area…”
I hear the city of Ordos has lots of unused infrastructure!
“‘It’s really, really tough to sell real estate when you can’t find a sense a urgency,’ Studnicky said.”
Sounds like they are running out of greater fools with dumb borrowed money.
Or create a sense of urgency. It’s the oldest sales tactic in the world. The result is the “build your way out of a bubble” disaster that gets repeated over and over.
I don’t think that urgency is sufficient to keep a bubble inflated without the support of a steady flood of federally-guaranteed subprime mortgage loans. Maybe we will find out over the next few years.
Suzanne’s research would never steer me wrong. Her Google-Fu is almost as strong as her fudiciary duty. And it’s different this time.
‘in 2014 there were an estimated 300,000 unauthorized immigrants living in Arizona’
And the number of unauthorized Arizonans living in Mexico? Zero. Anyway, this number sounds way too low.
I’d wager there are that many in NoVa/DC area. It’s like little Mexico around here.
my n va hood is sporting hijabs now
“my n va hood is sporting hijabs now”
I saw what I assume was a chick wearing a Burqa (all black eyes only) walking to a bus stop on US1 in North Palm Beach Fl. last month. Didn’t bother me but I wasn’t taking the bus either.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkh3WB5Htwg
frisk Arabs twice !
Manassas! Where i live its more like little India. I notice the top realtors are all Indian on Zillow. Some korean and others, theyre all pretty chill they dont socialize much with me.
Theyre kids think some of my project stuff is cool.
They must do well cause they can afford the houses I cant.
They must do well cause they can afford the houses I cant.
More likely they’re a bunch of Stanley Johnsons.
And don’t forget that bribery comment we saw here a couple weeks ago. I’m still thinking about that. Those Indian realtors about probably getting a ton of cash under the table to show homes only to Indians or present only Indian offers.
I must have missed the bribery comment. I notice they pay the asking an have run prices up a lot by overpaying. Bank just finally put one on te market at a 150k loss. Asking 499k
It’s not Little Mexico. It’s Little El Salvador and Little Honduras and Little Nicaragua and Little Dominican Republic.
Same difference.
Is a burglary just unauthorized shopping?
“Is a burglary just unauthorized shopping?”
Speaking of unauthorized shopping.
Man tries to sneak 58-inch TV out of Walmart during shop-with-a-cop event
BY GARY DETMAN FRIDAY, DECEMBER 9TH 2016
PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. (CBS12) — A man who tried to do some Christmas shopping at a Walmart in Port St. Lucie is now in the slammer, in part because some deputies were also doing some Christmas shopping for kids.
Police say James Walsh tried to walk out of Walmart with a 58-inch television on Monday. Unfortunately, he didn’t pay for it.
Unfortunately for him, deputies with the St. Lucie County Sheriff’s Office were at the store for a shop-with-a-cop event. Several ran after him. They had him in custody in no time.
http://cbs12.com/news/local/man-tries-to-sneak-a-55-inch-tv-out-of-walmart
undocumented shopping. (no receipts)
^^^ Gonna have to use that!
The CEO of Wal-Mart took away the greeters at the entrance and moved them to check receipts at the exits instead. And he did it for a reason.
And the number of unauthorized Arizonans living in Mexico? Zero. Anyway, this number sounds way too low.
Agreed. My guess is that there are at least 1 million illegals in Arizona.
And everyone knows that Mexico isn’t racist or anything but Arizonans are the devil. Open the gates to Tijuana you racist San Diegoans!
If Cali makes good on the threat to secede, I’ll bet ANYTHING that they will jealously guard their borders to keep unwanted foreigners out. They’ll probably even require Americans to get a visa to visit.
Of course, we all know that the threat to leave is pure posturing.
At least charge the “foreigners” a lot extra to visit Yosemite and our beaches.
CA has a $2.8 billion surplus.
ps. Avocados will be $4 each.
ps. Avocados will be $4 each
Not if consumers in the USA don’t buy them they won’t. They’ll rot on the trees.
If California left the Union, which would be the new poorest state in the USA?
we all know that the threat to leave is pure posturing ??
Sure wish it could happen….
If California left the Union, which would be the new poorest state in the USA ??
California sends the Fed’s 378 Billion a year…The Fed’s send back 342 Billion with conditions and strings attached…
How about we just keep our 378 Billion and go it alone…
Poorest state behind CA? WA, OR, NY or MA.
Not if consumers in the USA don’t buy them they won’t. They’ll rot on the trees.
Brilliant!
And dont forget if a meteor hits the planet, sales might drop too.
Get back to picking the avocados. Fixing avacodo prices is way above your paygrade.
Love the arrogance surrounding CA’s supposed “surplus.” This surplus will disappear rapidly when the house bubble, tech bubble and stock bubble collapse.
CA relies on high income earners for the bulk of their taxes so its’ fortune depends on their fortunes and bubble money.
The state has long since chased out icky middle-class jobs with their outrageous regulations and middle-class folks have fled. I’m only in my late 30s and remember when we had manufacturing here! It surprises my recent transplant friends to no end that we used to make stuff and people had a decent life.
The Middle Class fled, replaced by millions of illegals. Now you have rich people and poor people. Except for some of the rich costal enclaves, this state is a third-world poverty stricken hell hole.
It really looks like Brazil now. Ask Rio how that worked out.
So the “haves and the have nots” is something new and only in CA?
Got Popcorn?
Love the arrogance surrounding CA’s supposed “surplus.” This surplus will disappear rapidly when the house bubble, tech bubble and stock bubble collapse.
If memory serves me well, It also had a big surplus before the 2008 crash. All those IPO’s and rising property taxes when all those houses sold and were reassessed to their current values, circumventing the Prop 13 limits.
“Avocados will be $4 each”
You think Cali is the only Avocado producer in the world? Ever heard of Mexico?
The state has long since chased out icky middle-class jobs with their outrageous regulations and middle-class folks have fled. I’m only in my late 30s and remember when we had manufacturing here!
If you looked into it, you’d probably find that the reasons for the decline in manufacturing are similar to those that affected the Rust Belt.
Pretty soon there’s going to be a big, beautiful wall that stop avocados from getting into the country.
Mexico - havent you been following Trump?
Make America great again, not Mexico.
Didn’t realize you were that young, CHE. You don’t comment as much as some of us, but when you do, I always enjoy your posts and the wisdom in them. This is another good one from you, as you’ve brought up something I’ve been thinking about from time to time over the past few years.
Has to do with Broken Windows Theory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broken_windows_theory
It isn’t always connected to poverty. I traveled in Jamaica for a while back in the 1980s and was impressed by the work ethic, order and cleanliness in some very poor areas, mainly in the mountains. And some parts of Montego Bay. Even the little roadside stands that served Red Stripe and jerk pork or goat were spotless and cheerful. Can’t speak for Kingston, we were warned not to go there.
I contrast this with what happened around here when many immigrants, both legal and illegal, moved in to various neighborhoods that were formerly modest but pleasant little working class/middle class neighborhoods. They look like crap now and so do the people and nobody seems to care.
what do you think the reasons are for the rust belt decline?
Get back to picking the avocados. Fixing avacodo prices is way above your paygrade.
So that’s what he’s doing on his work-release program
CA is has a tough border. Wake up AZ! Spend some money on protecting your border.
‘Net migration is expected to dramatically decline over the next few years,’ Beacon Economics said. That spells bad news for residential real estate. Beacon said the San Francisco area rental market ‘appears to be approaching the end of frenzied growth.’ The firm expects multifamily permitting activity will fall by 18 to 24 percent in 2017, as compared to 2016, as ‘demand for apartments in the region’s pricier submarkets continues to cool.’
Crow on the plate for Thornberg.
Having lived through the dot.com bubble I’ve seen traffic increase and decrease dramatically in the SF Bay Area in proportion to economic activity and the population over the decades. But never have I ever seen so much traffic as we have now. Not only are the highways backed up but even the smaller streets are queued up miles away from the highways. The place is overbuilt relative to the transportation network. This last year the big topics were *stopping* construction projects and which candidate in local government were for slow limited growth.
The quality of life in the bay area has been dropping since the 80’s.
The quality of life in the bay area has been dropping since the 80’s ??
Totally disagree…Quality of life has never been better in most categories…
We know better.
San Francisco Park Gets Open-Air Toilet for Half of Population That Can Already Pee Anywhere
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/01/san-francisco-park-gets-first-open-air-urinal.html
Totally disagree…Quality of life has never been better in most categories…
Homeless using sidewalks as toilets? Gridlock traffic. Too many Chinese. Music and art scene is dead. Bad public schools. Nowhere for kids to play. High crime.
What category is better? sinking buildings?
But never have I ever seen so much traffic as we have now ??
Yep…
which candidate in local government were for slow limited growth ??
You just chase the growth to the city next door…You still get the traffic but lose the revenue…
Lots of multi-level condos under construction.
Same here with the traffic in LA.
Tends to happen when you give 600,000 illegals drivers licenses.
Screw the quality of life for the citizens.
LA is awful too. Too many dirty rats in a small cage.
ABQ has a better quality of life than anywhere east of The 5.
add Sacramento to the city list ruined by over-population.
I-80 now backs up, starting at Davis, all the way down to San Francisco. that’s about 90 miles of gridlock.
every. day. of. the. week.
you just can’t cram the rest of the 2nd & 3rd world into the United States. but they’ll sure try!
And can’t help but notice for as much hate the white man gets, the rest of the world sure wants to live in his countries!?!
Jesus H. Christ & Muhammed: FIX YOUR OWN DAMN COUNTRIES.
“But never have I ever seen so much traffic as we have now.”
Yep, was visiting San Jose a month ago, and I was amazed at the level of traffic; nearing that of Los Angeles basin.
Falls Church County, VA Housing Prices Crater 7% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/falls-church-city-county-va/home-values/
DOW 20k before the inauguration. Then what?
Then Trump and the new Congress need to make good on their promise to relax the “crushing regulations.” Or else the DOW is gonna crater again.
Cheer up Donk. Better days are coming.
What regulation is hurting the most? Clean air or clean water?
The real answer is probably that US companies are probably hurt by new financial regulations more than anything else. They would love to go back to their pre-bubble behavior so they could get more bonuses. If it crashed in 10 years who cares. They’ll all be retired by then.
“Then what?”
Gotta rotate the prols into buying stocks before the boom is lowered (again)…
Dow 6666
S&P 666
Nasdaq 0
Do you have a date for that prediction? I thought that the NASDAQ should have become unimportant after the dot com crash of 2001. The bubble must have only partially burst.
Jan 20, 2017
And 10 year bond at 15%.
Heh heh…
Downtown Portland, OR Housing Prices Crater 9% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/portland-or-97201/home-values/
Got stagflation?
The restaurant recession has arrived… and here’s yet more evidence
Published: Dec 9, 2016 7:26 a.m. ET
Rising restaurant prices and the higher costs of residential rent and prescription drugs are battering the sector
Restaurants are emptying as consumers rein in spending
By Ciara Linnane
Corporate news editor
Traffic at U.S. fast-food restaurants fell 1% in the third quarter to mark the sector’s first traffic decline in five years, the industry tracker NPD Group said Tuesday.
Total restaurant visits were also down 1%, hurt by the now familiar list of factors that have weighed this year, ranging from the higher costs of eating out, changing consumer behavior and higher bills for items such as rent and prescriptions.
…
changing consumer behavior ??
There is the key component right there…
Consumers are demanding local/organic/low carb/gluten free etc food. They aren’t putting up with McD’s anymore.
Price Donk. It’s about price.
My fav local Bean Burrito with rice, cheese and pico on an oversized tortilla used to run $3 at the local walk up counter. Went this week and price jumped to $6.
“Californias $400 Billion Debt Worries Analysts”
http://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-s-400-billion-debt-worries-analysts-6812264.php
life is good. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFZqat_nAJs
Do ya glow in the dark after hanging ten? Or maybe it’ll be hanging twelve, at the rate this is going.
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/568924/fukushima-disaster-radioactive-fish-west-coast-oregon-salmon-tsunami-fall-out
I’ll take a pass on the sushi.
Hey Natty Ice Dude, that means you’ll have that debt covered in approximately 143 years, if you don’t have a recession or Enron or something.
What debt? Not my circus, not my lazy monkeys (pensioners).
http://napavalleyregister.com/ap/state/california-analyst-projects-billion-budget-surplus/article_660f9c79-43f3-51b7-ad29-60428cbe488a.html
and if you need a job - https://www.winejobscalifornia.com/
400 Billion in Debt….2.5 Trillion Dollar economy and growing !!
Calexit !!!
‘Trump Says China Will Have to Play by Rules Under New Ambassador’
‘Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a professor in political science at Hong Kong Baptist University, said the editorial was intended to send Trump a warning that it, too, was willing to play hard ball. China may have underestimated the foreign policy consequences of Trump’s victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the U.S. election, Cabestan said.’
“China was blinded by its hate of Hillary, but did not realize that it is getting a much more offensive U.S. president, supported by a very anti-communist and ambitious Republican Party,” he said. “Taiwan is going to be part of this game, instrumentalized by the Trump administration much more than by Obama, as a leverage of what could be called a ‘super-rebalancing strategy.’”
Obama’s foreign policy has been an unmitigated disaster. He has left international relations in ruins and much of Asia and Africa in complete chaos. He will not be missed.
Heh, no, he won’t be missed at all. I think he is loathed by many. He’s going to have a lousy post-presidency if he continues to wag his finger and lecture people.
I didn’t agree with Obama and thought he was a bon vivant and Goldman Sachs/George Soros empty suit, but I didn’t dislike him personally and thought that on the whole he was fairly decent and likeable. But Crooked Hillary radiated evil and oozed corruption from her Satanic core. Trump seems to be backpedaling from some of his campaign pledges, but Allah be praised, at least we were spared from the horror of another Clinton kleptocracy.
Maybe he will paint self portraits of himself in the bath.
Making America Great!
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-06/california-makes-america-s-economy-great
California last year created the most jobs of any state, 483,000, more than the second- and third-most-populous states Florida and Texas combined (they added 257,900 and 175,700) and at a faster rate than any of the world’s developed economies. The pace of employment growth was almost triple the rate of job creation for the 19 countries that make up the euro zone and more than 3.5 times that of Japan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The high taxes and ubiquitous regulation critics cite when assailing Golden State government are proving no impediment to business and investment. They may even be a benefit, as public policy and people’s preferences converge. Four of the world’s 10 largest companies are based in California. Two of them — Alphabet and Facebook — were conceived in the past 18 years. San Francisco-based Wells Fargo, the world’s largest bank by market capitalization, routinely outperforms any of its peers from Wall Street.
‘Presented below are the 25 wealthiest counties (with populations of 65,000 or greater) in the United States by median household income according to the 2012 American Community Survey[3] prepared by the US Census Bureau. Six of the counties are located in the state of Maryland, five are in Virginia, four in New Jersey, three in New York, two in California, and one each in: Colorado, Georgia, Michigan, Tennessee, and Texas.’
14 Santa Clara County California $91,425
17 Marin County California $90,535
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States
All those people and only two counties. And even in those only 13% can afford a house. It’s like Haiti out there.
I was in Whole Foods last night, surrounded by beautiful women in yoga pants buying their kombucha, and all I could think of is the horrible poverty all around me. Namaste.
Nattyboi, You’re living vicariously through this guy again.
http://bit.ly/2gltY2D
Nice gap under that yellow dress.
That’s funny, all I was think of was, I bet I could bounce a quarter off those yoga pants.
It’s like Haiti out there ??
Well Ben, we don’t get the government cheese like those other counties do….
Alphabet, Facebook, and Wells Fargo (not at all like Enron)
‘As EU treaty turns 25, Juncker warns against going it alone’
“Those who think the time has come to deconstruct the EU, to put the EU in pieces, to subdivide us into national divisions are totally wrong,” former Luxembourg prime minister Juncker told an audience of students. “We won’t exist as single nations. We won’t exist as a single country… In 20 years from now not one single member state will be member of the G7. Any questions?” he warned, referring to the G7 group of the world’s richest nations.’
‘Juncker rebuked EU members that had broken the spirit of European unity during the migration crisis last year. Eastern European countries such as Hungary and Slovakia have ignored a decision pushed through by Juncker’s commission in 2015 to relocate refugees pouring into Greece and Italy across all the EU member states.’
“That is something new — for the first time in post-war European history not all the member states are applying the agreed rules,” Juncker said. “This is against this basic principle that the European Union is a rule-based system. It is no longer,” he said.’
Jean-Claude Juncker drunk and bitch slaps leaders
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU
The Glory Days are Over, except in Seattle.
http://seattle.curbed.com/2016/12/8/13880116/tales-seattle-housing-market-central-stevens-bidding-war-price
The implosion there is only weeks away.
Last crash, we lagged a year behind everyone else.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
+1; from the early indicators, I expect a similar lag this time around.
“Last crash, we lagged a year behind everyone else.”
+1 True.
Downtown Bellevue, WA Housing Prices Crater 10% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/downtown-bellevue-wa/home-values/
The Trump Squad brings da hotness.
http://bit.ly/2gjl8gP
swing!
Viewpoint: Trump, Carrier, and Corporate Welfare
December 09, 2016 / Toni Gilpin
President-elect Donald Trump achieved something extraordinary when he cut that recent deal with Carrier/United Technologies.
Not the jobs. I’m talking about the torrent of outrage he triggered regarding public subsidies for big business.
In exchange for retaining upwards of 800 jobs at its Indianapolis facility, Carrier will reportedly receive $7 million in tax credits from the state of Indiana. Trump has “set a dangerous precedent that companies can easily shake down taxpayers with the mere threat of outsourcing jobs,” declared the Democratic National Committee. The press howled—“an awful idea,” read a typical editorial. Even Sarah Palin called it “crony capitalism.”
That is all true, but there’s one problem: corporate welfare has been a bipartisan boondoggle for decades. That these tax giveaways have largely benefited hugely profitable companies like Carrier, at the expense of workers and their communities, has failed to garner much media scrutiny until now.
BIPARTISAN BONANZA
In town halls and statehouses across the country, Democratic and Republican officials are doling out $80 billion worth of incentives to businesses every year. The federal government kicks in billions more.
What’s dubbed “economic development” is often simple extortion with a fancier title. CEOs deftly exploit the desperate desire to create (or merely retain) jobs, reaping the windfall as governors and mayors compete to offer up the best bribes. These payouts are enormous. Struggling West Virginia, for instance, awards incentives equal to one-third of the state’s budget.
In this bonanza, the big winner is big business. At least three-quarters of state and city subsidy dollars go not to local enterprises, but to the uber-profitable corporate 1%: companies like Boeing, Intel, GM, Nike, and Dow Chemical. Foreign operations like Royal Dutch Shell and Nissan rake in big bucks courtesy of American taxpayers as well.
And the deals keep getting bigger. Corporate watchdog Good Jobs First has recorded hundreds of “megadeals,” like the $5.6 billion that New York State gave Alcoa, or the nearly $9 billion that Boeing extracted from the Washington state legislature. These colossal packages carry with them an average cost-per-job of nearly $500,000. So Trump’s Carrier compact, at about $9,000 per job, is a comparative bargain.
SUBSIDIES DON’T WORK
Advocates of subsidies insist they create jobs, but at best that’s hard to prove. There’s rarely proper follow-up, so it’s usually impossible for citizens to assess whether the tax breaks they paid for are delivering as promised.
The numbers that can be ferreted out are unimpressive. Missouri’s incentive program, initiated in 2005, promised some 46,000 jobs—but only 7,100 had materialized by late 2012. The state nonetheless doubled down and committed to a record $629 million in tax credits that year. “Missouri’s economic development strategy,” the editors of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote scornfully, “is this: Listen to pitch from guys in suits. Give them money. Promise jobs. Say nothing when jobs don’t appear.”
http://labornotes.org/blogs/2016/12/viewpoint-trump-carrier-and-corporate-welfare
outrage he triggered regarding public subsidies for big business.
toni is a moron. he or she doesn’t know the difference between tax reductions and subsidies.
So “subsidies don’t work” is incorrect. It should read “tax reduction don’t work”.
so you agree the author doesn’t know the difference between subsidies and tax reductions, right? i mean, why listen to anyone that uses tax reductions and subsidies interchangeably? the leftist author is just trying to obscure the truth.
“It should read “tax reduction don’t work”.
tax reductions do help the economy.
The name is unimportant. Whatever you want to call them, they don’t work.
the name is unimportant? now you’re just weaseling out. you’re not just showing ignorance, you’re showing willful ignorance.
subsidies hurt an economy.
tax reductions help an economy.
in other words, one ‘works’ the other doesn’t.
subsidies hurt an economy.
tax reductions help an economy.
Did you read this somewhere? It sounds overly simple.
stay ignorant if you want to.
The government bailed me out and gave me $10k, i paid my taxes with it, so all it ok. not a moocher.
Socialists are liars. How many times do we have to tell you that letting companies and individuals keep more of their own money is neither welfare nor a subsidy.
Dont be a moocher! Defense, airports, schools, parks, libraries, NASA, FDA, and Tunnels, bridges and Roads are not free. Pay your bills.
The old liberal argument…
Unless we have a bloated and inefficient massive bureaucracy - roads will fall apart.
Ignoring that over 60% of the federal government’s budget are entitlements.
Ignoring that only 16% of the federal government’s budget is defense.
Ignoring that schools, libraries, bridges and roads are nearly always paid at the state and local level.
That leaves NASA and the FSA. Less than 1% of the budget.
Math is hard. Especially for progressives about to be schlonged out of power.
NASA: Convincing Americans that the world is FLAT since 1969.
da bear
I am sure glad that Goldman Sachs is finally getting a chance to run the country.
Donald Trump Picks Another Goldman Sachs Exec To Join His Administration
Gary Cohn (COO) has been offered the job of director of the National Economic Council.
FYI - $10 billion in bailout money from American taxpayers to Goldman Sachs
Regardless of their resume, they will follow Trump’s playbook or be fired.
Too bad about your tool Hillary. You’ll get over it eventually.
They took a pay cut to be on team Trump. They dont care.
They want to change the rules to benefit themselves, starting with the estate tax.
Do you really think the estate tax affects the super rich in any way?
How do the Kennedys hold on to their own wealth generation after generation?
But the estate tax doed destroy family businesses and family farms.
Math is hard for progressives. Especially when they are about to get schlonged.
Talk of Lost Farms Reflects Muddle of Estate Tax Debate
By DAVID CAY JOHNSTON
APRIL 8, 2001
Harlyn Riekena worried that his success would cost him when he died. Thirty-seven years ago he quit teaching to farm and over the years bought more and more of the rich black soil here in central Iowa. Now he and his wife, Karen, own 950 gently rolling acres planted in soybeans and corn.
The farmland alone is worth more than $2.5 million, and so Mr. Riekena, 61, fretted that estate taxes would take a big chunk of his three grown daughters’ inheritance.
That might seem a reasonable assumption, what with all the talk in Washington about the need to repeal the estate tax to save the family farm. ”To keep farms in the family, we are going to get rid of the death tax,” President Bush vowed a month ago; he and many others have made the point repeatedly.
But in fact the Riekenas will owe nothing in estate taxes. Almost no working farmers do, according to data from an Internal Revenue Service analysis of 1999 returns that has not yet been published.
Neil Harl, an Iowa State University economist whose tax advice has made him a household name among Midwest farmers, said he had searched far and wide but had never found a case in which a farm was lost because of estate taxes. ”It’s a myth,” Mr. Harl said.
Even one of the leading advocates for repeal of estate taxes, the American Farm Bureau Federation, said it could not cite a single example of a farm lost because of estate taxes.
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/04/08/us/talk-of-lost-farms-reflects-muddle-of-estate-tax-debate.html
Federal and state estate taxes destroy family farms and family business.
It is also immoral to tax an asset that taxes have already been fully paid on just because of a natural event.
And PS - the federal estate tax was as low as $1 million not that long ago.
—
Illinois death tax hits family farms where it hurts
September 1st 2016 (hey look - a recent article!!!) - Chicago Tribune
Given the average value of Illinois farmland, about $7,500 an acre according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, a farm a little larger than 500 acres would be subject to Illinois’ estate tax when the owners die and the estate passes to their children. That’s not even counting farmers’ assets that aren’t land: The value of tractors, combines, barns, silos and more is tallied up, too.
Illinois’ estate tax tops out at 16 percent. And don’t forget the federal estate tax, which maxes out at 40 percent. Even with clever accounting, that can be a tough pill to swallow
Here’s some thing more recent from the same guy.
In 2013 just 660 taxable estates included any farm assets, the latest IRS report shows. The average value of those farm assets was $2.8 million, well below the current exemption from the estate tax of $5.2 million ($10.4 million for a married couple).
Congress grants extra exemptions for working farms and for small businesses (a twofer for farmers, since a farm is also a business). Congress also allows big discounts for minority interests in land given to heirs during a farmer’s life. Then there are blockage discounts because as long as Mom or Dad is alive, the children cannot sell the land, further reducing the value for estate tax purposes.
The estate tax rules are so lax that a farmer with two or more children who starts arranging an orderly transfer of assets a decade or two before dying can pass on tens of millions of dollars for less than the cost of a new subcompact car while retaining ironclad control of the operation until death.
All this means those 660 taxable estates were not yeoman farmers working their own land but more likely gentlemen such as the cable television billionaires Ted Turner and John Malone, who each own more than 2 million acres of land.
On top of all this, when estate taxes are due on a farm, Congress lets people take years to pay off the obligation, in effect granting a loan from the government. The interest rates are exceptionally favorable, far below what any bank or credit union would charge.
The Tax Policy Center did a sophisticated analysis of the most recent estate tax data using its proprietary computer model. The center is a joint project of the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute and is run by economists who have worked in both Republican and Democratic administrations. The center’s computer model has proved highly reliable over the years.
Nationwide, only 20 farms a year pay estate taxes, the Tax Policy Center estimated. That’s less than 1 in 100,000 farms. That estimate is limited to estates in which the farm represented more than half the wealth, thereby excluding gentleman farmers like Malone and Turner.
And what of the burden of the estate tax? The top tax rate is 40 percent. So just how big is the actual bite?
Just 4.9 percent of the value of the taxable estate, the Tax Policy Center calculated.
We need to reform the estate tax system. I would start by changing the code to tax capital gains at death, as Canada does, and to limit the estate tax to huge concentrated fortunes — say, of $1 billion or more. But we should all agree to reform it on the basis of facts, not lies.
http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/3/the-estate-tax-isnt-destroying-family-farms.html
Irrelevant
How do the Kennedys hold on to their own wealth generation after generation?
The truly rich don’t pass wealth down, one generation to the next, individual to progeny. Instead, it’s held in a multi-generational trust that pays out to family members. The trust is legally a “person”, but doesn’t die like we flesh-and-blood people do. Estate tax is for the little people.
Who did you expect him to pick, Steve from Iowa? As much as I despise Goldman Sachs, they do hire some of the brightest and most capable people in the country, and those people do not automatically become Goldman stooges when they move on to other callings (although the ones at the Fed are certainly an exception).
You are joking, right? Goldman or Steve only?
Harrison, ID Housing Prices Crater 16% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/harrison-id/home-values/
Does Obama have liver problems? Hep C or something?
Why would a gay drug user have those diseases?
Well, he sometimes looks as if he has a bit of jaundice.
If the damage he’s done to the country wasn’t so great, I could have a bit of sympathy for him, given the amount of abuse he was subjected to as a child.
I thought this time is different…
TRUMP GIVING PLUM JOBS TO BIG-TIME DONORS
Trump is redefining the swamp with his cabinet picks. It’s now the billionaire swamp of people who want to profit off of his presidency and have no end to their greed. Republicans are looking the other way so Trump doesn’t even have to be discreet.
WWE and Trump’s election… compare and contrast among yourself.
TRUMP IS A GOD!
Trump is going Full Harding!
da bear
Party like it’s 1920something!
Dow 20k next week serfs!
The DOW has increased about 12 percent a year during Obama’s tenure, according to a New York Times analysis done in August 2016.
That’s the third best of any president since 1900. The Times study showed Democrat Bill Clinton, who benefited from the tech stock boom, averaged a 15.9 percent annual return during his eight years.
Meanwhile, Da Boyz are stealthily making for the exits.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/12/09/if-everything-is-so-bullish-why-are-bank-insiders-dumping-their-shares-at-record-pace/
no doubt dude
This rally seems very fishy.
Yes, it seems fishy to me, too, but it’s all seemed fishy to me ever since dot.bomb.
As to the most recent spate of market run-ups, Trump is not yet officially president. This is Obama’s run-up, if it must be assigned to a president. They’re going to pull the rug from under Trump. Or so they think. He may have a few tricks up his sleeve.
“This rally seems very fishy.”
“Nobody ever lost money taking a profit.” —Bernard Baruch
Does crony capitalism create jobs? Like Carrier?
Should we buy stock in General Dynamics? Gen. Mattis.
Can we rent out the space in your head where Trump is living?
In Germany, some Muslim refugees convert to Christianity, Shet, now what!?
People from Muslim nations who have seen what True Islam is all about might be incentivized to reject barbarism and backwardness.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/muslim-refugees-converting-to-christianity-in-germany-crisis-asylum-seekers-migrants-iran-a7466611.html
Retail is for suckers!
DEPRESSION!
Lurking in the shadows.
Kalaheo, HI Housing Prices Crater 12% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/kalaheo-hi/home-values/
Who could have foreseen the terrible tragedy that would result as a consequence of Ben’s and Janet’s housing price reflation scheme?
Opinion Editorials
Oakland warehouse fire a horrifying result of housing crisis
The Oakland warehouse fire created massive plumes of smoke. (AP)
The San Diego Union-Tribune Editorial Board
…
Desperate people make desperate, dangerous, occasionally life-or-death decisions. Some Californians who can’t afford sky-high rents and who don’t want to leave the Golden State become homeless and sleep in freeway underpasses or in cars. Some move into abandoned buildings or commercial properties such as storage units where landlords look the other way or don’t look at all.
This is particularly true in Oakland. As the tech boom has filled San Francisco and the Silicon Valley with high-paid young professionals, affordable rentals have disappeared throughout the region. The Zillow real-estate website reports rent in Oakland has gone up by 71 percent since January 2013, and that average rent recently topped $3,000 a month.
One result is a lot of illicit housing: “There’s a kind of unholy alliance in which these buildings are leased with a ‘nod nod, wink wink, nobody lives there,’ ” Oakland architect Thomas Dolan told The New York Times. “It’s a precarious situation where tenants exchange cheap rent for substandard housing — and if they rock the boat, they’re out.”
Many will look at this phenomenon and demand that cities across California launch crackdowns to prevent the next Ghost Ship tragedy. The San Diego Union-Tribune Editorial Board thinks that Californians should also demand that government officials make it much easier to add housing stock. The way California handles housing now creates inequality, impoverishes millions and drives our children to leave for states where home ownership is more than a theoretical possibility. It also forces people onto the street and into harm’s way.
Such a status quo should be targeted, not tolerated. So long as it exists, Californians will endure misery of many sorts.
The biggest expansion of credit in history creates all kinds of misery and suffering.
I feel badly for twenty-somethings these days. How can you afford to establish your independence with these bankster-inflated rents?