Oversupply May Be A Reality
A report from the Dorchester Reporter in Massachusetts. “The owner and developer of a 27-unit condominium building nearing completion on River Street near Mattapan Square last week asked for the community’s blessing to change it from condominiums to rental apartments, citing financial pressures and a changing market that he says are working against homeownership sales. At a Boston Planning and Development Agency (BPDA) meeting, Joseph Taylor said that the project was his most ambitious endeavor, as he already owns and manages several smaller multi-family dwellings in Boston and Quincy. Consultant Mike Foley said the financing had become unworkable at condominium prices. The market will not support a condo project of this size, he said, adding that only four condo sales had closed in the last year in the entire Mattapan neighborhood, with another six under agreement.”
“When Taylor secured short-term financing for the building, beginning what would ultimately amount to a $4 million investment in the property, outlooks for development were ‘optimistic,’ Foley said. Now, however, ‘based on today’s market, it just isn’t feasible the sell out this building,’ Foley said. Some of those in attendance questioned the wisdom of Taylor’s financial decisions, with some saying they were annoyed by advertisements for renting the apartments before the change officially took place. Foley said the rental outreach was to gauge interest and mollify the bank, which would foreclose on the property if it cannot reasonably turn a profit.”
The Orlando Sentinel in Florida. “Orlando’s real estate industry emphasized two things as it summed up recent market conditions for a slow time of year: prices are up and so are interest rates. But both prices and sales volume slid from October to November, which is typical for that time of year. ‘I think the market has slowed down some,’ said Rustina Gibson, broker of Re/Max Vantage LLC in Lake Nona. ‘It could be because of the holidays. It’s turning back into a buyers’ market for anything over $250,000.’”
“Gibson said she has seen builders’ inventory of new homes increase in southeast Orlando and they are offering higher commissions to real estate agents to help drive sales.”
The Coloradoan. “Kiersten and John Guerrero and their four children, ages 2 to 9, are celebrating in their new home — a four-bedroom, two-bath house on nearly a half-acre lot in Wellington. The first-time home buyers financed their $258,000 purchase with a Rural Development Loan through the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It restricted them to houses outside Fort Collins and Loveland city limits, so they looked in Timnath, Wellington and Laporte. Timnath’s prices ‘were a little ridiculous,’ and Laporte had no inventory, Guerrero said. They found a 43-year-old home in Wellington for $258,000.”
“The Guerreros, who make about $30,000 a year, could not have afforded Fort Collins’ median home price of $375,000. She works for Larimer County, he is a stay-at-home dad. Fort Collins Housing Authority pays part of their $1,200-a-month mortgage so they are not paying more than 30 percent of their income on housing. ‘We have to keep everything pretty tight, but it’s doable,’ she said.”
“Todd Spiller of Spiller Realty Services said rising interest rates and a flood of new apartments in the development pipeline might ease vacancy rates and push rents down. That could force some investors out of the market, which could lessen competition, especially at the lower price points, he said. But with every interest rate hike, ‘you lose a few buyers,’ he said. ‘Eventually that will erode that bottom end.’”
From Bisnow. “The main decision-maker for lending millions of dollars to commercial real estate firms at one of the country’s largest banks says apartment oversupply may be a reality in some parts of the country. SunTrust Bank’s Kathy Farrell—just named head of CRE this summer—tells us multifamily developers could very well be getting ahead of themselves, particularly in some areas of Washington, DC, Nashville, Charlotte and even SunTrust’s home turf of Atlanta.”
“‘Do we think there are pockets of potential oversupply in market-rate multifamily? Possibly,’ she says. ‘So we’re paying attention to that.’ And that means SunTrust—regularly ranked among the 20 largest banks in the US with nearly $200B in assets—will pull back even more on construction loans for apartments next year. SunTrust isn’t alone in its caution. Earlier this week, Wells Fargo SVP Melissa Frawley (center)—also based out of Atlanta—says her bank’s multifamily construction financing was down by 65% from the previous year, and that she was closely watching the next wave of apartment deliveries hitting the area.”
‘multifamily developers could very well be getting ahead of themselves, particularly in some areas of Washington, DC, Nashville, Charlotte and even SunTrust’s home turf of Atlanta.’
‘Do we think there are pockets of potential oversupply in market-rate multifamily? Possibly’
Well that’s all very scientific Kathy with a K. Good thing there’s only 200 billion at your bank. Check this out from the end of the article:
‘Despite the concerns, Kathy says there has been a noticeable uptick in optimism—which can’t necessarily be quantified—since the election of Donald Trump, fueling hopes, she says, that the US’s 2% GDP growth will begin to grow in the near future. If that happens, paired with more jobs, then another 11,000 Class-A apartment units in Atlanta won’t likely affect the market negatively.’
Oh no, 11,000 units won’t make a dent in the new rich renter millennial demand you gals invented, especially at these luxury rates.
‘Gibson said she has seen builders’ inventory of new homes increase in southeast Orlando and they are offering higher commissions to real estate agents to help drive sales’
And handing out free pools. It was a couple or three months ago I posted an Orlando report with a recent buyer who “wished he had waited”. These builders will roll you underwater and not blink.
Orlando is a pit, just sayin’. The most miserable place in all of Florida, IMO. Full of grifters, too.
It was also the epicenter of the 90’s boy band explosion. Ugh.
Led by Lou Pearlman, double-ugh. I didn’t realize he died this past August in prison, he will not be missed. One of the most repulsive characters I’ve ever heard of.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lou_Pearlman
Bears something of a resemblance to Dennis Hastert.
And then there was the whole Tiger Woods scandal, another thing that made Orlando famous.
Land of the creeps.
‘The first-time home buyers financed their $258,000 purchase with a Rural Development Loan through the U.S. Department of Agriculture…They found a 43-year-old home in Wellington for $258,000. The Guerreros…make about $30,000 a year’
Well Jingle and Rental Watch it’s a good thing these aren’t subprime loans or this couple could be in trouble. How much did that 43 year old house cost new? $15,000?
“$258,000.”
“…$30,000 a year…She works for Larimer County, he is a stay-at-home dad.”
Tears of Joy! A house at 9 X Gross Income.
They probably have no idea that the cost of their young brood will rise exponentially over the next decade or so.
Good gravy! Even with a 60K income it would be a stretch.
And yeah, kids are expensive, though I’m guessing they have a SNAP/EBT card to feed them.
Here’s the house they bought:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7854-2ND-St-Wellington-CO-80549/13874380_zpid/
Zillow says the actual sale price is $267,280, not $258K, but the tax assessor site lists Kiersten Guerrero as owner.
Looks like a cosmetic flip. I recognize that paint color: Behr Swiss coffee, or something similar. And painted cabinets in the kit.
And two blocks from the train tracks, LOL.
Just a purely subjective comment. When I visited Fort Collins, I was surprised at how ugly the suburban housing is.
It’s a bi-level. Also known as raised ranch. They are notorious for being ugly, but they are very efficient at fitting the most rooms per volume.
“Just a purely subjective comment. When I visited Fort Collins, I was surprised at how ugly the suburban housing is.”
Rugged housing of marine grade plywood that can withstand generations of alcoholism, spousal abuse, etc., and plenty of interior storage to accommodate dickheads coming and going.
“Definition:….The term subprime refers to the credit quality of particular borrowers, who have weakened credit histories and a greater risk of loan default than prime borrowers.”
If she works for the county and just qualified for a USDA loan their credit quality is good.
“…..Fort Collins Housing Authority pays part of their $1,200-a-month mortgage so they are not paying more than 30 percent of their income on housing.”
They seem to fit the definition of affordable housing, since only 30% of their income is used for hosing.
“….Well Jingle and Rental Watch it’s a good thing these aren’t subprime loans or this couple could be in trouble.”
You are correct Ben. This is not subprime and it is a long way from the 80/20 subprime poor credit quality financing of 2005-2007. I am willing to bet you $50 this loan never defaults. I just sent you $50 for my 2016 HBB “subscription”. I’ll bet you double or nothing (next year contribution) that this loan is still current by the end of 2017! Good to go? Remember, the majority of loan defaults occur in the first 12 months of origination! Bottom line: You get $100 next December or I read for free in 2017.
Any loan that isn’t prime is subprime. All of these USDA loans are subprime. If you want a subprime loan you can get one here:
https://www.citadelservicing.com/programs/non-prime-rate-sheet
No USDA loan there. Here is the USDA guideline:
http://www.usdaloans.com/lending-guide/usda-loan-eligibility/
It is not a subprime loan. Full doc, good credit, employment history……
I know what subprime is. I wrote this 12 years ago:
http://thehousingbubble.blogspot.com/2004/12/subprime-lending-surges.html
Your 2004 quote: “….one out of every six new residential mortgages made this year has gone to a credit-impaired”..borrower.”
This borrower is not credit impaired. They may be “income impaired”, but that is not my point.
And I am not saying this is a good time to buy a house. We are likely due for a correction and lower prices within the next few years. However, I doubt these people in Ft. Collins with default on their loan. In fact, I’ll bet $50 they will be current 12 months from now!
A borrower requiring a 3% downpayment mortgage is the definition of impaired borrower.
Try again.
What, no super prime?
There is a super prime…..lower than 65% LTV and 760+ FICO. They get the lowest rate possible……
99% of borrowers are subprime. They pay the highest rate possible because of their skyrocketing default rate.
hosing.. exactly
You do understand that the reason they only use 30% of their income (gross? net?) for housing is because the Housing Authority pays the rest.
This is massive welfare and a propping-up of the housing markets all over this country. I have written before about what a plague all these sorts of housing agencies are.
+1. Instead of propping up the housing prices, this family should have moved to an area of the country where you could buy the same house for $75K, make $30K at Costco, Oil City style. Instead, this woman’s neighbors are basically tossing their hard-earned money, via taxes, directly into the pocket of the bank just so she could live there.
Or rent for half the monthly cost. Then buy later after prices crater for 75% less.
“Fort Collins Housing Authority pays part of their $1,200-a-month mortgage so they are not paying more than 30 percent of their income on housing. ‘We have to keep everything pretty tight, but it’s doable,’ she said.””
Yeah, because housing is an entitlement, don’t you know.
Place I looked at at the bottom of this cycle about 4+ years ago, all cash deal, an old small place on less than an acre near the beach for just under 300K. Too much cash, too far away from work, too much work, etc. so I didnt pull the trigger. Saw it come onto the market in the past couple days, price tag: 7.5M. Pretty sure someone fat fingered an extra 0 in there as you can get a yuge mansion on some real acreage for that amount. At least I hope there isnt anyone that stupid and greedy to think they can get that kind of return. County assesses the property at just over 400K. RE agents are a special kind of retard, you need to ride herd on them otherwise they’ll do things like this and you’ll wonder why the place isnt getting a single walk through.
‘Pop-Up Hotel’ Opening in January — “WhyHotel” is the new name of a “pop-up hotel” in the Bartlett apartment building in Pentagon City. Starting in January, the hotel will offer 50 unleased, furnished apartments as hotel rooms. Although most of the building is leased, owner Vornado is experimenting with “WhyHotel” as a way to monetize new apartment buildings during the lease-up period. [Washington Business Journal]‘
From the comments:
‘Crystal City
Are there some kind of zoning rules about apartment/hotel use? If my apartment does this, I’m out.’
‘DavidD
Is it not possible they have overbuilt apartments, not just in Arlington but in all of greater DMV? And there’s that huge Wharf development in DC that will come on line in a year. We have a new administration starting in January that has vowed repeatedly to cut the size of the Federal government. I think they’re going to need a lot of Airnb visitors to fill these units.’
Bitter Clingers. Great cartoon by Ben Garrison.
https://i.redd.it/bla36d8okj4y.jpg
‘Opinion: Hillary Clinton supporters need to quit whining about the Electoral College’
‘Clinton’s 2.3-million-popular-vote plurality over Trump depends on the votes in a single state: California. Clinton has more than a 4-million-vote plurality over Trump there. In the other 49 states plus the District of Columbia, Trump actually has a 1.7-million-popular-vote plurality over Clinton.’
‘The Electoral College system worked as it should. It did not “misfire.” The election’s outcomes were ultimately about what Americans wanted and what they did not want—not about electoral mechanics.’
There’s a photo of Podesta. Dude, trim that nose hair, you’re gonna catch a fish or something.
“There’s a photo of Podesta. Dude, trim that nose hair, you’re gonna catch a fish or something.”
I nearly killed myself laughing on that one.
Speaking of the electoral college, the votes are starting to come in:
http://www.270towin.com/live-2016-presidential-election-vote-of-electors/
So far, 27 for Trump, 7 for Clinton.
I don’t know how they get this info, I thought those votes were sealed and certified and handed over to Congress, to be counted on January 6th.
Starting to come in more now. What in the name of Jeebus is wrong with the East Coast that it can’t get its act together (with the exception of VT and NH)? After all, that’s where all the folks live who know what they’re doing, right?
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/12/19/1612610/-Electoral-College-votes-today
From the comments:
‘Help Us Electoral College, you’re our only hope!’
‘It just feels like….someone HAS to save the world, don’t they? (I know that’s naïve.)’
‘The time is NOW to be organizing a resistance and actually doing something about it. It means you have to make saving this country from annihilation a top priority and we owe it to the rest of the world for f****ng things up so badly. Where is the GROUP ORGANIZATION FOR PUBLIC OUTCRY? Who, what, where, why, when and how should we show up to voice our disgust at the stealing of our democracy each and every day? HELLO? IS ANYBODY LISTENING TO US????’
‘If Dirty Harry asked me if I was feeling lucky today, I’d say no.’
‘This preposterous idea was never going to pan out in the slightest. It is the stuff of bad fiction. Even the producers of Independence Day would not accept a plot this detached from reality. Well, OK the producers of Independence Day would find this idea realistic… but that should tell you something!’
PA has kept the faith. Whew!
The photo on the Marketwatch article is pretty fun.
SJW’s are already organizing resistance. There’s going to be a Women’s March on the day after Inauguration Day. It’s slated for many cities but the main one will be in DC. Here’s their ad copy: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/womens-march-on-washington-official-tickets-29428287801.
Meanwhile, I told my SJW friends to stop the anti-Trump hippie talk and work on Congress instead. While these folks are marching and singing protest songs, Congress is quietly planning to privatize Social Security, Medicare, and Education. Not to mention making every freeway a toll road, sell off parking meters to the Saudis, drill baby drill the environment, and allow tax breaks for everyone except them.
Couldn’t step away from the drama?
“Couldn’t step away from the drama?”
No. It’s a serious failing. I’m sitting here refreshing the page like an idiot. I don’t know why this is. I haven’t given a crap about an election since I can’t remember when.
“Congress is quietly planning to privatize Social Security, Medicare, and Education.”
To quote our friend butters, “NaGaHa”. Toll roads, drilling and tax breaks, yep. What’s that about selling parking meters off to the Saudis?
NaGaHa??
Parking meter deal, from 2010:
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/10/why-does-abu-dhabi-own-all-of-chicago-s-parking-meters/339805/
“The city of Chicago has 36,000 parking meters. In 2008, it sold them on a 75 year lease for over one billion dollars. The buyers were led by Morgan Stanley. But as Matt Taibbi reports in his forthcoming book Griftopia, previewed in Rolling Stone, the state-owned investment arm of Abu Dhabi ended up owning a large share — possibility a controlling majority — in Chicago’s parking meter system.”
NaGaHa??
Not Gonna Happen.
Let’s not beat the crap too much out of CA, which went 61% HRC. NYC is another populous state that went Clinton with 59% of the vote, another 1.75MM person margin.
I’d like to beat the crap out of Florida right now. The weather’s mild, it’s almost 1:00pm EST here and are the votes in? No. Typical. Probably Dade and Broward counties messing it up.
Aren’t they all meeting together in Tallahassee?
I don’t know, could be. I meant the electors from those areas. It’s Debbie Wasserman Shultz and Marco Rubio territory. The corruption is bi-partisan.
Palmetto, get a grip.
IIRC, the electors aren’t tied to any specific counties. That was already determined on Election Day. All they are doing today is waiting for 29 folks from Florida — as a whole — to vote unanimously. That said, it shouldn’t take very long to count to 29.
“it shouldn’t take very long to count to 29.”
You don’t know Florida.
“the electors aren’t tied to any specific counties.”
I’m sure there are electors who are residents of Dade and/or Broward. If any are faithless, those would be the ones. Drama.
I thought that it was Orlando that had all of the bad people.
Not all of them. Gotta spread the wealth.
Well, jeebus, finally. Probably had to have lunch first. Lunch is big in Florida.
More salty tears, this time from Wisconsin.
http://fox6now.com/2016/12/19/wisconsin-electoral-voters-all-expected-to-stick-with-president-elect-donald-trump-2/
I think the lady in purple is MikeyMike’s wife, and clearly she needs to get back on her meds.
People forget that CA has the Central Valley, which is basically flyoverland with high taxes. If they manage to outbreed the immigrants, cali could turn red.
I grew up in Sonoma County–it had significant farmland. Marin was always more liberal. According to my friends who still live in Sonoma County, it is becoming more like Marin.
I suspect it’s similar to if you head east.
I think it will be a long time before CA turns red.
Loosers
You mean like a slot machine? Bigger payouts? LOL.
“Bitter Clingers. Great cartoon by Ben Garrison.”
Classic!
“Great cartoon by Ben Garrison.”
Is that a cigarette in Obama’s fingers?
Yes, he’s a smoker. Supposedly he quit when he became Prez, but I seem to recall that his most recent medical report said he partakes of nicorette gum “occasionally”. Trust me, if that’s the case, he hasn’t quit. My guess is that as soon as he leaves the White House, he’s gonna shag ‘em up good.
As a side note, Jackie Kennedy was a heavy smoker and the public never knew this. She managed to avoid being caught in public or on camera with a ciggy. I’m guessing the press cooperated.
As a side note, Jackie Kennedy was a heavy smoker and the public never knew this.
Smoking tends to make women’s faces cave in very early, Jackie seemed almost immune to that for years. I imagine her daughter is also a heavy smoker, she sure has that lined-face look.
‘Foley said the rental outreach was to gauge interest and mollify the bank, which would foreclose on the property if it cannot reasonably turn a profit’
This guy spent $148k per unit and what was he trying to sell them for? Probably 300k or up. But these developers aren’t greedy or anything.
Hey Boston Globe, how could you miss this one? Is it fake news?
I believe you reported it a month or so back, but what about the huge project at Copley Square in Boston where the high rise condo building was CANX’d because the developed acknowledged “market forces wouldn’t respond to such a building” or something. Basically, oversupply of luxury.
What’s wrong with 10% margins on new construction for the developer/builder? The guys demanding 30-45% on new residential is disgusting, especially after you factor the 15-25% padding each sub is taking. Nothing worse than paying twice for the same cheap-ass made in china light fixture. All emblematic of the cult of entitlement felt by most RE parasites.
I’ve never seen a well-priced tradesman or builder go bankrupt, while the savants reaching for the moon seem to go up in smoke on a regular basis.
For single-family development, gross margins of 10%-12% are fairly common. In large part, it’s because a builder will build in phases (say, 10 homes at a time), with the time from start to completion pretty short at 5 months or so.
There is a lot of maneuverability if the market changes. At any time they are only exposed with the remaining land and the current phase of homes.
However, with condo development, the margins are typically much higher. This is because you need to build them all before you can sell one, and the time from start to completion of construction is much longer than 5 months…for really big projects it could be 18-24 months or longer…so you are much more exposed to changes in the market. Additionally, single-family homes are generally more desirable, so condos are often the first product type to falter.
Condos are riskier, thus much higher margins are necessary to attract capital.
I understand the risk premium for condos. Given the ridiculous exponential increase in land prices (not value), anyone lending money for multi-fam deserves a huge loss as that shouldn’t pencil out.
From a single-fam standpoint, I’d be happy to find an honest builder getting gross margins of 10-12%. Tract builders in the southeast are getting over 20%. Local builders see that, start to think they’re entitled to it, and suddenly new construction is being priced at $170 sqft (mcmansion size >4000sqft) ex land, carry cost, risk premium, marketing, real estate fees. Disgusting when cost is only $90-95 sqft for high quality construction (2×6 framing, advantech, BIBS, <1.5 ACH50, etc).
Can’t wait for it all to crash and reset.
If SFH deals are achieving a 20% gross margin, it is likely only after the land has been purchased.
In a competitive land environment, land values generally rise to the level where the overall margin for the builder is in the range of 10-12%.
Get a grip. SFH at $60/sq yield 15% gross.
“I’ve never seen a well-priced tradesman or builder go bankrupt”
Depends on what you mean by “well-priced”. When I lived in South Florida, the lowballers would get the job and when they reached a point on the job that they realized they couldn’t make money and would go in the hole, they’d disappear from the job site, couldn’t be reached by phone and clear out of the office if they had one. Poof!
In fact a lowball bid is not really well priced, but the GCs often didn’t see it that way until they got burned.
I looked up Mattapan. Doesn’t sound like a great place. If they’re building luxury condos there it must be the end of the cycle.
Check out the pic of the these “Class-A” condos. Ugly, shoehorned, urban infill built as cheaply as possible. If they try to compete with luxury rental complexes, they’re going to lose the amenities war. I don’t see space for room for a dog-grooming salon, much less a screening room.
Growing up throughout the South (military kid) in SFHs in suburbia, I never even knew what was a “multi-family” until I came to the New England area. So many of the houses looked so big, then I realized there were 2-3 different apartments in what looked like one house. My girl came with me down and saw some neighborhoods and asked “Does only one family live in there?” while driving through some neighborhoods of average middle class.
Multi-family construction, what a farce. Greedy developers chasing yield and utilizing tiny chunks of land.
Why Trump Had an Edge in the Electoral College
With an expected win in the Electoral College today, Donald J. Trump will seal his presidential victory — despite losing the national popular vote by a significant margin.
His Electoral College lead should be substantial, since he won states worth 306 electoral votes to 232 from states won by Hillary Clinton. Yet the nearly final popular vote count has him trailing by nearly three million votes, or 2.1 percentage points, the largest deficit for a winning candidate since 1876’s notorious election.
How exactly did we end up with such divergent results?
Liberals say Mr. Trump’s victory is proof that the Electoral College is biased against big states and undemocratically marginalizes urban and nonwhite voters. Conservatives say the Electoral College serves as a necessary bulwark against big states, preventing California in particular from imposing “something like colonial rule over the rest of the nation,” as the conservative analyst Michael Barone put it. California sided with Mrs. Clinton by a vote margin of four million, or 30 percentage points.
Both sides have a point. But in the end, Mr. Trump won for a simple reason: The Electoral College’s (largely) winner-take-all design gives a lot of weight to battleground states. Mr. Trump had an advantage in the traditional battlegrounds because most are whiter and less educated than the country as a whole.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/19/upshot/why-trump-had-an-edge-in-the-electoral-college.html
Don’t forget that California is the poorest state in the country. New York can’t be far behind. It’s simply a case of stoopid not always winning.
Don’t you live in New York?
Yup, in rural NY. Out here we are mid-westerners. NYC is a different place politically.
That’s interesting. If people in NYC were to refer people in your part of NYS as stoopid, they would be called arrogant stuck up city slickers, and their attitude the cause of Trump’s rise to power. But when it’s the other around, it’s just fine.
Tongue in cheek Mikey, and a NYC friendly wave to you.
The places with the highest priced real estate are hotbeds of debt and misery. Yeah, I think it reflects imprudence and lack of long math skills.
I don’t think that it’s math skills. Isaac Newton lost money in a speculative bubble. His math skills was much better than anyone you’ve ever met.
“were” Mikey, “were”.
Yes, I know. I typed that out quickly.
His math skills was much better than anyone you’ve ever met.
Yet sadly, he was unable to calculate the madness of men…
Yet sadly, he was unable to calculate the madness of men…
Common-sense psychology was not his strong point.
but,
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — California’s nonpartisan legislative analyst said Wednesday he’s forecasting a $2.8 billion budget surplus next year and says California should be able to weather a mild recession without major budget cuts or tax increases over the next four years.
CNN exit polls showed Trump nailed the $50-$200k salary range, married, white male (and married women), and Veterans. Hillary crushed it in the <$50,000 earners, first time voters (non-USA born, surprise surprise), single college educated women (surprise, brainwashed glass ceiling women). The percentages were quite clear on CNN’s own exit data. Trump didn’t just win “uneducated white men”. And does non-college educated necessarily mean dumb? Or genius for not falling into the debt trap of paying off a useless education for 20 yrs? Plenty of plumbers, electricians, and auto mechs make enough to provide for their family. / end rant
Also I’m sick of this California is the greatest, blah blah blah. No California was a few moments from shuttering every state park because it couldn’t afford to have them open and pay park rangers $12/hr. CA is ___ this close to running out of siphoning other states waters (Lake Mead and Colorado River) to sustain is population. Who will bail out the financially strong economy of California when CALPERs is officially broke? Why is 12% of the CA econonmy Govt (non producing), and 19% is real estate and real estate transactions (fraudulent). Ca has one of the highest net OUTFLOWs of population (look at Dallas, Austin, Portland, and Seattle).
first time voters (non-USA born, surprise surprise),
That’s probably false. Most first time voters were probably born in the USA. Every voter was first-time voter at one point.
Trump didn’t just win “uneducated white men”.
Yes, obviously he needed other voters to win. Uneducated white men just happen to be his most enthusiastic group of supporters.
“Uneducated men” = non college or university socialist indoctrinated men.
Mighty likes to reference “Uneducated white men”.
It makes him feel special.
Rage on Mighty.
Phony, how many different groups of people do you denigrate on a regular basis? It probably works out to nearly every demographic group that you’re not a member of.
Are the Scots “whitemen”? I don’t know. Legend is we are migrants from the Middle East and not the least bit Caucasian.
Caucasian includes people from the Middle East.
Mighty
Your rage cup runneth over.
Blue, if I understand correctly, Caucasian and Middle East are almost the same thing. The Caucus Mountains are only a couple hundred miles from the northern border of Iran. Meh.. if you go back far enough, we’re all technically black.. either that or we’re all technically fish.
The Caucasus Mountains are in the Caucasus region of southern Russia. Local legend says that Noah’s ark ended up there on Mount Kazbek.
either that or we’re all technically fish.
Judging from what the news covers every day, we’re all technically slime molds.
Hillary “crushed it” with the Free Sh*t Army, Democrat-on-Arrival huddled masses from south of the Rio Grande, and future cat ladies. But decent people who work hard, play by the rules, and pay the bills detested her and everything she stands for.
“Hillary “crushed it” with the Free Sh*t Army”
She had the Free Sh*t Army without spending a dime and stil…
Hillary Clinton’s losing campaign cost a record $1.2B
By Bob Fredericks December 9, 2016 | 2:06pm | Updated
http://nypost.com/2016/12/09/hillary-clintons-losing-campaign-cost-a-record-1-2b/
Did Boeing and Exxon vote for HRC?
free-shet army applies.
Don’t forget Wall Street. That last bailout was eight years ago. They’re due for another one pretty soon.
“Hillary “crushed it” with the Free Sh*t Army, Democrat-on-Arrival huddled masses from south of the Rio Grande, and future cat ladies. But decent people who work hard, play by the rules, and pay the bills detested her and everything she stands for.”
+1 Nailed it as usual. Future cat ladies. Hilarious.
“this close,” “few moments”
it’s not hand grenades.
You can spend your entire retirement worried, and nothing happens. Tahoe is looking great for snow this year.
Northern Sierra is on track to match the wettest water year in history (prior wettest year was 1982-1983; driest was 1923-1924).
The average is 50 inches of precipitation, we are already at 28.4 inches (which is 197% of average to date).
Last year at this time, we were at about 11 inches.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/precipapp/get8SIPrecipIndex.action
Trump also predictably overwhelmed Hillary with evangelicals and those who attend church at least once a week. The open Supreme Court seat was a huge key to the election, bigger than frustration with the gig economy and globalization.
Do you think so? They always say “it’s the economy, stupid!”
However, having lived with this economy for years now, I have to agree about the Supreme Court, especially after Obamacare. And even then, John Roberts pizzed on us. I have more of a beef with him than I do with Obama and the Dems.
I don’t know who Bill Gates voted for but I think he would be considered uneducated by the elites. (To the best of my knowledge he does not have a college degree.)
Donald Trump’s Team Tones Down Skepticism on Russia Hacking Evidence
Reince Priebus suggests a unified presentation from U.S. agencies could convince the president-elect
By DAMIAN PALETTA and KATE O’KEEFFE
Updated Dec. 18, 2016 7:25 p.m. ET
Fresh signs emerged Sunday that President-elect Donald Trump could embrace the intelligence community’s view that the Russians were behind a computer-hacking operation aimed at influencing the November election.
A senior Trump aide said Mr. Trump could accept Russia’s involvement if there is a unified presentation of evidence from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies. This followed weeks of skepticism from the president-elect and his supporters that there is sufficient evidence that Russia was responsible for cyberattacks against the Democratic National Committee or leak of stolen emails.
Speaking on Fox News Sunday, Mr. Trump’s incoming chief of staff, Reince Priebus, said the president-elect “would accept the conclusion if these intelligence professionals would get together, put out a report, show the American people that they are actually on the same page.”
http://www.wsj.com/articles/priebus-says-donald-trump-wants-fbi-view-on-russia-hacking-accusations-1482084741
“Reince Priebus, said the president-elect “would accept the conclusion if these intelligence professionals would get together, put out a report, show the American people that they are actually on the same page.”
How about showing the American people some hard evidence?
Seems like the real hacking was coming from DHS. OTOH, they’re a bunch of commies anyway.
palmetto
This would be a great place to for tthat cartoon you posted earlier in the day.
https://i.redd.it/bla36d8okj4y.jpg
Do you know who the guy on the right with the “Fake New” bubble is? That’s one I couldn’t figure out.
Mark Zuckerberg?
By golly, I think you’re right. Makes sense, with the fake news thing.
Hillary is still getting free room and board in your head.
It’s over, invest accordingly.
Yeah, and the Facebook logo for the F…
I don’t think Mighty and new are going to make the day.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIikqPmbgvI
Baristas and waiters have never been more highly educated in our Obama-Fed-Goldman Sachs “recovery.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-19/janet-yellen-delivers-keynote-ub-commencement-live-feed
Slap on the wrist fines, with no jail time. Same as it ever was.
http://www.businessinsider.com/platinum-partners-department-of-justice-indictment-for-fraud-2016-12
According to the Fed, everything is awesome!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-lopsided-recovery-in-the-housing-market-2016-12-19?link=MW_latest_news
Be afraid, FBs. Be very afraid.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/12/19/many-homebuyers-say-they-will-not-buy-if-mortgage-rates-rise/
The big Trump crash is welcome to all of us savers with cash!
We all want to spend out weekends at Home Depot again!
Trump is considering a radical to lead FDA. That’s dangerous for public health
Imagine being prescribed a medicine when neither your doctor nor the manufacturer has any clue whether it will actually work — because the government never required it to be tested for effectiveness.
That’s not how things are done now, because federal law requires drugs to undergo clinical trial testing to gauge benefits and risks. But the incoming Trump administration may seek to undo a decades-old standard of evaluating drugs for effectiveness — to the detriment of every American who takes a prescription medicine.
One of two people being vetted as the next Food and Drug Administration commissioner gave a speech two years ago in which he suggested the agency require only safety testing for new drugs. After that, good luck.
“We should reform FDA so it is approving drugs after their sponsors have demonstrated safety and let people start using them at their own risk,” said Jim O’Neill, a managing director at Mithril Capital Management, a venture capital firm run by Peter Thiel, the billionaire Trump donor and transition team advisor. “Let’s prove efficacy after they’ve been legalized.”
He is not the right person for the job.
O’Neill is not a scientist or physician. Most FDA commissioners have had such a background, because the training involved in both careers makes it easier to understand the myriad issues involved in moving medicine forward.
https://www.statnews.com/2016/12/12/donald-trump-fda-oneill/?s_campaign=tw&utm_content=bufferc806a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Darwin would approve.
Is this the same FDA that was bought off by the sugar companies in the 70s to push the health initiatives going fat free? No more eggs, red meats, and avocados? Only because they were bought off, they buried research showing health links and problems of obesity with sugary foods, what does the FDA push for? Foods with reduced calories and fat free, which utilize any type of -ose sugar derivative to add flavor and make it taste better. Now of course we know better, and more people are waking up to the lies. FDA is not on the side of America or science.
I don’t think that the FDA pushes health initiatives. It must have been someone else.
It was big sugar. see the movie: https://vimeo.com/122387548
who needs regulations–people wont cheat for $$$$?
The FDA is overrated. The FDA and its authorizing laws and regulations have no monopoly on the truth or good sense. Look what FDA actions did to the price of hermodactyl.
Trump Rejects Climate Change, but Mar-a-Lago Could Be Lost to the Sea
Floridians in Palm Beach spend millions to deal with rising seas.
by Michael Smith and Jonathan Levin
December 16, 2016, 5:00 AM MST
Donald Trump shelled out $409,759 for property taxes in 2016 on Mar-a-Lago, his oceanfront club above billionaire’s row in Palm Beach, Fla. Some of those tax dollars will go toward combating the ravages of climate change, a phenomenon the president-elect has dismissed as a hoax. Trump tweeted in 2012 that “the concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese” to make U.S. industry less competitive. In early December he told Fox News that “nobody really knows” whether climate change is real. He’s picked Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, a staunch denier of climate change, to run the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
That’s not stopping officials in Palm Beach from preparing to deal with its effects. This year, the town overhauled 12 pumping stations to push storm runoff up a huge pipe to the Intracoastal Waterway under a 20-year, $120 million infrastructure plan to deal with increased rainfall and street flooding, among other issues. Palm Beach’s system can now suck up almost 1 million gallons of runoff a minute. “I just deal with the reality that sea levels are rising,” says Palm Beach Town Manager Thomas Bradford. “I don’t want to rile people up about it.”
A bike path along the Intracoastal Waterway floods when the full moon and high seas cause so-called king tides, which have grown more intense. Brackish water bubbles out of the ground, forced up by pressure on the water table from rising sea levels. According to Palm Beach County’s online climate-change mapping tool, the back quarter or so of Mar-a-Lago’s verdant, palm-tree-lined grounds would flood if sea levels rise two to three feet. The town recently changed the construction code to require higher seawalls around homes built on the water because of the threat of higher seas.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-16/trump-rejects-climate-change-but-mar-a-lago-could-be-lost-to-the-sea
What no way, $406,000 in property taxes? According to Hillary and Obama diehards, blowhards like Trump pay nothing in taxes right? $406,000 for ONE of his properties sounds pretty hefty share to me…
Maybe Trump bought a new shirt and paid sales tax too!
Worship the DT!
“A bike path along the Intracoastal Waterway floods when the full moon and high seas cause so-called king tides,”
That’s the thing about the Global Warming or I mean Climate Change nuts, they have to lie.
“so-called king tides,”
Every November King Tides flood low lying roads is coastal Palm Beach, I have seen it every year since the early 80s, others I know much longer.
CBS Fake news called the Super Moon that occurred in November and was the closest supermoon since January 26, 1948 “so-called”.
I saw that put a dock under at high tide, rest of the year high and dry.
King tide
From Wikipedia
King tide is a colloquial term for an especially high tide, such as a perigean spring tide. “King tide” is not a scientific term, nor is it used in a scientific context. Use of the term “king tide” originated in Australia, New Zealand and other Pacific nations to refer to an especially high tide that occurs only a few times per year. The term has now come to be used in North America as well,[1] particularly in low-lying South Florida.
The king tides occur when the Earth, Moon and Sun are aligned at perigee and perihelion, resulting in the largest tidal range seen over the course of a year. So, tides are enhanced when the Earth is closest to the Sun around January 2 of each year. They are reduced when it is furthest from the Sun, around July 2. [2]
The predicted heights of a king tide can be further augmented by local weather patterns and ocean conditions.
King tides are simply the very highest tides. They are naturally occurring, predictable events.
Remember…. A housing ‘recovery’ is falling prices to dramatically and more affordable levels by definition.
Lost in all the electoral college hoopla is this story:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-19/russian-ambassador-turkey-has-been-shot-condition-unknown-cnn
Washington is playing a dangerous game. What’s to prevent Russia from saying “The USA did this!”, hmm?
elphaba keeps losing..
“Three of Washington’s electors chose Colin Powell and one chose Faith Spotted Eagle for president, says elector Robert Satiacum.”
An ironic backfire.
yes, and a delicious backfire.
your doom and gloom prophecies aren’t happening.
bull.frickn.market
Which doom and gloom prophecies did you mean?
Dec 18, 2016 @ 08:34 PM
Yellen Tanks China’s Bond Market
Gordon G. Chang, Contributor
China’s bond market returned to calm Friday after the turbulence Thursday.
The Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate hike plus Janet Yellen’s words Wednesday sent Chinese investors dumping assets.
Markets, in China and elsewhere, had anticipated the rate change, but they were taken by surprise by the Fed signaling three additional increases in 2017, instead of the two that had been expected.
The exaggerated reactions in China to the Fed move suggest the markets there are fragile, Beijing’s technocrats have no solutions, and that country is at the mercy of factors beyond its control.
We start with the redback. The onshore renminbi, already weak, fell close to the 7-to-1 level, closing at 6.9467 to the dollar Thursday. Friday, it dropped again, landing at 6.9615.
Bonds caught the worst of the Fed’s move. For the first time ever, the country’s benchmark 10-year and 5-year futures stopped trading Thursday. The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, injected the equivalent of $22 billion in short-term money, and that allowed trading to resume.
…
’suggest…Beijing’s technocrats have no solutions’
I said that when the government completely contrived and talked the people into a stock bubble in 2015. Since then they’ve had a commodity bubble emerge and burst and now a housing/land bubble in their tier 1 cites.
quite a run the last 7 yrs, but a lot of people are too scared to invest in stocks after the Bush yrs. They missed 12% a yr and feel it is too late to get in now. (it is)
DONT FIGHT THE fed!
Remember my good friends….. Nothing accelerates the economy and creates jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.
DOOMING AND GLOOMING SINCE 2009. gOT cROw?
Nothing
“bull.frickn.market”
A bull can have its brain punctured and still walk in a daze.
Captive Penetrating Bolt Gun Cattle Stunner
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nr00arV2XIw
South Beach San Francisco Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/south-beach-san-francisco-ca/home-values/
Over the top! God Bless Texas, even the guy who voted for Ron Paul.
Congratulations, President Donald John Trump! 45!!!!!!!
Who do you think he will listen to more: team Goldman or team Exxon?
Bring on that crash! Too much debt out there–rates are going up!
Do the 45, natty. Put on those yoga pants and shake it!
new
You don’t seem to be feeling good from your head to your shoes.
Maybe this will help.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWfZ5SZZ4xE
new
These Uneducated white men say…
breathe in breathe out
breathe in breathe out
breathe in
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jG8lyFwopyg
Ryan Shaw: Do The 45!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yqPNXdlmUU
WE MUST REGULATE ASSET PRICES SO THEY DONT GO DOWN
The floor will never hold.
Suck it up, snowflakes - Trump is our next president.
These Celebrities? are not going to be happy about that.
Celebrities Urging Electoral College to Vote Against Trump PSA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mi7MGM_xFC8
It is historic. The Hillary Machine, in an unprecedented effort to subvert our election process via the Electoral College, produced an order of magnitude more traitors among their own sworn supporters than among the sworn supporters of the President Elect.
Those who refuse to accept reality defeat themselves.
SNL skit: Hillary does a “Love Actually” scene on an elector
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAhF8tPqafQ
A bit off-topic but worth a chuckle. The hipster Millennials are discovering that having a bone through your nose decreases your chances of getting a job.
Good time to be a reconstructive surgeon!
http://www.northjersey.com/story/entertainment/2016/12/19/millennials-looking-fix-overpiercing-remove-tattoos/95058206/
“Many are seeking to reverse the impulsive, perhaps keg-fueled decisions of their not-quite-lost youths. That tongue piercing, that bone through the nose, that conspicuously placed tattoo you got in college may not go over so big now in a job interview, or in the board room. ”
“Milgrim says ear reconstruction generally costs between $1,000 and $2,000, while tattoo removal is anywhere from $500 to $1,500.”
“A bit off-topic”
But just a bit and definitely worth the chuckle.
“The hipster Millennials are discovering that having a bone through your nose decreases your chances of getting a job.”
You see 820,000 criminal aliens. I see the collectivists’ dream of a permanent Democrat supermajority getting 820K votes closer to reality. Forward!
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/report-820000-criminal-illegals-84-with-felonies-serious-misdemeanors/article/2609915
Thank you, globalists, for all that you’ve done to us.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-islamic-state-children-iraq-syria-western-targets-a7485316.html
DEBT AND LEVERAGE BABY!
I ATE MY CROW AND ACCEPTED JANET YELLEN IN MY LIFE.
Now that right there is quite the poetic shithouse wall scribbling ever.
^
!
CA Housing Demand Craters 10% YoY
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/State/State_Turnover_AllHomes.csv