The Normal Stuff That Happens In A Boom-Bust Collapse
A report from the Vietnam Bridge. “According to Dang Hung Vo, former Deputy Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, a real estate bubble may be seen next year. Vo said that a property bubble usually happens when all financial sources are focussed solely on the real estate market, which pushes the price up by 30 to 40 per cent, and when more than half the buyers are speculators. ‘The real estate market bubble did not happen in 2016, but I expect the market will bubble in 2017. Therefore, the local authorities should have different solutions to deal with it when the prices of real estate increase and large numbers of units are in stockpile,’ Vo said.”
“Meanwhile, economist Dinh The Hien predicted the feared downturn for the end of 2017. ‘Around 40,000 units will be launched in 2017 and 2018. This figure will create oversupply and cause a price downturn,’ Hien said. In the last quarter of 2016, the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association reported on an oversupply of high-end units in the market. The country now has more than 4,000 projects which will provide more than three million units. Many investors and buyers have used loans to buy their properties, and plan to re-sell to the market.”
From Focus Taiwan. “A significant decline in residential and commercial transactions has forced a wave of real estate broker closures in Taipei, the Taipei Association of Real Estate Brokers said. According to a forecast by the association, transactions of homes, shops and offices in Taipei — the most closely watched property market in Taiwan — for 2016 could fall 29.5 percent from a year earlier to only 21,078 units. The estimated figure for 2016 also represents an almost 70 percent drop from a peak in 2006.”
“Kuo Tzu-li, head of the association, said that the worst has yet to come, noting that many real estate brokers are still struggling and might also have to close.”
The Chinchilla News in Australia. “The end of the boom bit hard in all towns around the Surat Basin, but in Miles especially. Miles and Districts Chamber of Commerce president John Hoffmann recalled that where once there was a lack of housing and accommodation and rents were up around the $2000/week mark, suddenly, 18 months ago, the boom ended. ‘It was like the light was turned off,’ he said. ‘Suddenly there were empty houses everywhere, no rents, and the banks classified Taroom through to Chinchilla as mining towns and began refusing housing loans - all the normal stuff that seems to happen in a boom-bust collapse.’”
The Evening Standard on the UK. “Camden, Kensington & Chelsea and Islington were the biggest casualties in the worst December for the London housing market for six years, property website Rightmove said. More expensive inner London areas were worst hit as asking prices in the capital fell an overall 4.3% to £616,160 on average, according to its latest index. High stamp duty and Brexit uncertainty has hobbled the market in central London, with asking prices in Camden dropping 15% in a single month to below £1 million. Well-heeled Kensington fell nearly 10% while Islington saw a near-7% fall.”
“Rightmove analyst Miles Shipside said: ‘Buyers are being put off the really big-ticket purchases at the moment compared to previous transaction volumes, and while sterling’s depreciation has helped to make things more attractive, the pressing need to purchase because of rising prices has disappeared. We therefore predict further price falls.’”
‘The country now has more than 4,000 projects which will provide more than three million units’
Oh dear…
Look behind the walls of any downtown Denver apartment built in the past few years and you’re getting shi*t quality for luxury prices.
Every third hole I drill splinters the stud, but f* it move on to the next one.
Location, location, location, doesn’t change the fact that you’re living in a pile of cheaply assembled garbage, LOLZ…
In the early 90’s I did a 6 month stint as an electrical apprentice. We were building one of those outlet malls and the journeyman told me to build a drop down outlet like the one he had just finished next to the spot. I bent the conduit, strapped it to the metal skeleton and when I was done he stood there telling me how awful it was and wasn’t to code etc. Just then the owner of the company walked up, pointed to what I had just finished and said, “That’s exactly what I want to see. We don’t have time for this crap next to it. Bow it and go!”
Bending conduit can be an art form. My pals and I always comment on bad work.
Multi level urban with wood studs? Seriously? LOL.
Yeah, back then I thought the metal framework was way superior. I don’t know why we are using wood for 2 by 4s.
metal framework was way superior ??
Only for TI’s within a shell…There are very good reasons wood studs are used in residential frame construction….Mainly, structural…
Incorrect. 18ga cold rolled steel framing deflects less laterally and spans larger distances than wood.
If what you’re saying were true we’d still be building bridges out of wood.
Sounds like you two are arguing past each other; it depends on whether you are talking about tensile or compressive strength. Steel is great at the former, not to great at the latter.
Bridges are built out of structural steel you toad…But you know that don’t you…A 2 X 4 metal stud is hardly structural..Its limits are likely just to be able to carry the sheetrock…But you go ahead an continue on your 8 year run on spewing garbage here…
I’ve been on wooden bridges plenty of times.
My friend, All 18 guage cold rolled metal framing is structural.
It’s all about thermal conductivity, e.g., wood supports loading much longer in a fire than non-insulated steel.
I keep reading about multimillion $ McMansions which have burnt to the ground, partly because they are build far from fire hydrants, partly because they had no built-in fire suppression systems, obviously built to impress rubes. After a certain level in price, one would think a structure would be a tad bit less likely to self-destruct, but no….
When you learn the luxury housing bubble reaches into the heart of 21st Century Communism, you really begin to suspect a global financial contagion is underway.
Says the poster who was a parrot on the shoulder of the collectivist kleptocrat and Soros-annointed candidate in the last election.
PB said he didn’t support Hillary.
Indeed he did. None of his countless Hitler posts were about her though.
Buzzword Bingo!
Stunning image here:
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/12/20/world/20TURKEY-WEB5/20TURKEY-WEB5-master1050.jpg
From this article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/19/world/europe/russia-ambassador-shot-ankara-turkey.html
Yah, that’s really double plus ungood. Who ordered the hit is what I want to know. It really does look like some sort of deliberate provocation, and as I said in the earlier thread, Russia could accuse the US of setting it up in retaliation for Syria, just like the Washington blaming the Russians for hacking the election.
It could also be bait to draw Russia into the conflict the warmongers are looking for.
‘Europe’s Far-Right Anger Is Moving Mainstream’
Europe’s “far right” parties are Bernie Sanders like people who are against globalism.
I love how Krugman thinks Russia hacked the election in states which use paper ballots. What a completely unhinged intellectual.
It’s too soon to tell if our intelligence services were involved in this, but with a couple of exceptions, pretty much the whole world is moving away from us now, so I expect our provocations, when they occur, to be that much more desperate.
I’m very surprised this blog wasn’t on the Washington Post blacklist. It can’t be very long until contrarian economic views, much like contrarian foreign policy views, are equated with treason.
Banksters are literally above the law.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/imf-chief-christine-lagarde-convicted-not-punished-negligence-215231219.html
Jail is for the little people.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/19/imf-chief-christine-lagarde-found-negligence/
Joe: 2016 Election Results A ‘Complete Earthquake’ | Morning Joe | MSNBC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgYphOJ7qiw
Interesting discussion of how the Trump team knew they were going to win all along based on their polling.
“He gave the big meddel fanger” to the establishment.
Clinton’s Pennsylvania supporters in disbelief
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qg_fy6naDb4
“I already had a room reserved for the inauguration. I think I shed my first tears when I had to wake up my ten year old son…and he started to cry.”
“I cry and I mourn, and I start over again.”
1:35
Hahahahahaha! Boohoo and your little boy too!
Cry it out, buttercup. And when you’re all cried out, Trump will still be president.
There’s a good Politico piece on how the Clinton campaign treated Michigan, just supreme, condescending overconfidence from out-of-touch campaign leadership based elsewhere. According to the article, some staffers in a Brooklyn war room were so secure in their candidate’s unquestionable triumph that they already were drinking by the afternoon. The lesson these people drew in hindsight? That Comey swung the election. Fools.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/michigan-hillary-clinton-trump-232547
‘A presidential campaign taking over the party committee post-convention is standard, but what happened in 2016 was more intense than veterans remember. People at the DNC and in battleground states speak of angry, bitter calls that came in from Brooklyn whenever they caught wind of contact between them, adamant that only the campaign’s top brass could approve spending or tactical decisions.’
“Don’t touch them. Stay away,” one person on the other end of the call remembered Clinton campaign states director Marlon Marshall saying after hearing about a rogue conversation between a battleground operative and an official at the DNC. “You can’t be calling those people and making them think something is coming when nothing is.”
‘In the Monday before Election Day, Obama added a stop in Ann Arbor, but that final weekend, the president had played golf on Saturday and made one stop in Orlando on Sunday, not having been asked to do anything else. Michigan senior adviser Steve Neuman had been asking for months to get Obama and the first lady on the ground there. People who asked for Vice President Joe Biden to come in were told that top Clinton aides weren’t clearing those trips.’
“We worked collaboratively with Brooklyn throughout and made a robust investment in Michigan, and we were obviously disappointed that we came up short. Everybody was,” Neuman said.’
‘In at least one of the war rooms in New York, they’d already started celebratory drinking by the afternoon, according to a person there. Elsewhere, calls quietly went out that day to tell key people to get ready to be asked about joining transition teams.’
‘But an hour-and-a-half after polls closed, Clinton aides began making rushed calls, redrawing paths to 270 through the single electoral vote in Maine and Nebraska. Still assuming wins in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Michigan suddenly looked like the state that was going to decide the presidency.’
‘They scrambled a call with campaign attorney Marc Elias, prepping for a recount in a vote that oddly looked like it would be a narrower win than they had ever prepared for. An hour later, after they hung up, they realized it was over. They could tell by the numbers they were seeing — not the numbers being spewed from their own internal analytics team, but the numbers sitting at the bottom of the TV tuned to CNN. With the recount frozen, Clinton lost Michigan by 10,704 votes.’
Hahahahahahaha!
TRUMP
Any entity as corrupt, debased, and feminized as the DNC and upper echelons of the Democrat Party is utterly incapable of accountability, reason, or painfully honest introspection and self-criticism to come up with lessons learned. It will ALWAYS be someone else’s fault.
“I want a do over!” LOL. Let’s just keep voting until I like the outcome. That’s how democracy works.
Hahahahahaha! Boohoo and your little boy too!
lots of vacant, mouth gaping, disbelieving stares in ‘crat land today.
Attention Mighty
Your Frat buddies ditched you again.
5:40 - 6:00
Hillary lost white college men
Oh, did Screech win the EC? No! Schlonged again!
‘With so few electors rebelling, that left a Harvard professor’s claims that as many as 20 Republican electors could go faithless look like nonsense – and put Trump in cruise control to the White House.
It also left protests by die-hard anti-Trump activists taking place outside some state houses and capitols looking futile.
By 1:10 p.m. EST Electors from Pennsylvania, North Carolina Ohio and Louisiana had given Republican Donald Trump 134 of the 270 electoral votes required to formally win the presidency. Four hours later, Trump was at 268 electoral votes, while Clinton held 166.’
‘By 5:30 p.m., Trump’s journey to the White House was complete.
The lucky yoga pants didn’t do it Natty Ice Dude.
Now the electoral college needs to be abolished, apparently. As a practical matter that has almost no chance of happening. But more worrisome is that you can’t tell these people that someday the shoe will be on the other foot, when a candidate they support wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote, because to these people that possibility isn’t even within the realm of imagination.
It hasn’t been a good stretch for certain Ivy League professors.
But more worrisome is that you can’t tell these people that someday the shoe will be on the other foot, when a candidate they support wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote, because to these people that possibility isn’t even within the realm of imagination.
This is because these people have a sickness where they aren’t able to think logically or critically. Truly. Fast-forward to a time where their candidate wins the electoral college and loses the popular vote. They will forget how they thought the electoral college should be abolished and see no sense of irony about it. No amount of pointing out their historical behavior will have any affect on them. They can rationalize everything - this is their incredible skill: the ability to routinely rationalize any and all logic away. They will never get that they don’t get it.
Not in NyC my friends. Prices continue to rise unless you’re looking at 5 million and up. Can’t find a decent studio, one bedroom under 800k.
NYC is headed into a massive RE recession if it isn’t there already. It’s always this “prices continue to rise” crap like that’s supposed to hurt or something. Prices are “rising” in Houston and it’s a disaster down there and has been for a year and a half. Statistics can be pretty useless at times.
Anyone who says cars are piling up unsold on dealer lots is peddling fiction.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/12/19/car-recession-bites-gm-inventory-glut-forces-layoffs-plant-shutdowns/
Housing losses….. election losses….. rising interest rates…. collapsing housing demand….. All good news….
For the Lolas, Hopeless and Helpless, DebtDonkeys and Degenerate Gamblers?
http://bit.ly/2h4KLpv
Sorry Bill sometimes there just isn’t enough lipstick.
Bill Clinton Blames Hillary Loss on Russians, Comey, ‘Angry, White Men’
Ashley Rae Goldenberg | 14 hours ago
Clinton then pivoted from blaming Russian hackers for Clinton’s loss to pinpointing Comey as the specific cause. “James Comey cost her the election,” Clinton bluntly stated.
Clinton also cited “angry, white men” as another reason why Clinton lost.
http://www.mrctv.org/blog/bill-clinton-blames-hillary-loss-russians-comey-angry-white-men
People forget that added benefit of that molester never seeing the inside of the Whitehouse again.
Pretty soon a lot of those Trump voters are going to very disappointed white men.
It’s starting to look that way. He has an odd way of draining the swamp.
He has an odd way of draining the swamp ??
Thats part of the “sting” ins’t it….
Willie is projecting.
Hmmm . . . isn’t Bill Clinton a perfect example of an angry white man?
As we used to say when we were kids: “Takes one to know one.”
There’s a difference between getting angry occasionally and being in that state permanently.
The Southern Poverty Law Center is permanently paranoid.
Their scripted narratives infest every corner of the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, leading unknowing Americans to believe that they are a civil rights organization, which in fact they are not.
“There’s a difference between getting angry occasionally and being in that state permanently.”
The Entire Presidential Debate Explained in One Ex-President’s Face
By Madison Malone Kircher
http://nymag.com/selectall/2016/10/bill-clinton-make-faces-watching-debate-meme.html
Ha-ha, that’s exactly what I said the other day, Bill must’ve voted for Trump, also Harry Reid, John and Tony Podesta, Michael Moore, Bill Maher, since they’re apparently angry white men.
Thirty years of scandals, sleaze, corruption, and influence peddling cost Hillary the election. No decent, self-respecting person would ever vote for such a an exemplar of the crony capitalist status quo.
Bill Clinton is just another angry white man. No more White House interns for him!
Ms. Russia!, Russia!, Russia! sure went back to sleep quickly. Short paid gig?
Stamped her little feet so loudly the other boiler-room trolls complained and got her fired.
Acts Of Love in Berlin last night, as reluctantly reported by real journalists:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/truck-rams-into-berlin-christmas-market-in-deliberate-attack-killing-12/2016/12/20/2c73c5ec-c63b-11e6-acda-59924caa2450_story.html
Funny how those “runaway trucks” never hit a mosque.
Where is Albuquerque Dan when you need someone to defend the Chinese economic miracle?
China Stocks Retreat to Six-Week Low Amid Bond Market Selloff
Bloomberg News
Mon Dec 19 18:38:40 2016
Tue Dec 20 01:39:36 2016
Shanghai Composite is among world’s biggest losers this month
Debt rout, rising money-market rates spur investor concern
Chinese stocks dropped to a six-week low amid waning turnover as oil producers and materials shares led declines.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.5 percent to 3,102.88 at the close. A gauge of mainland energy companies retreated 1.3 percent to erase their December advance. The nation’s shares have slumped more than 4 percent this month to be among the world’s biggest losers as surging money-market rates sparked a bond rout and the yuan weakened to an eight-year low. The Hang Seng Index dropped 0.5 percent to its lowest level in five months.
Chinese markets are ending the year much as they began it — in the red. Concern about the pace of a depreciating currency is fueling capital outflows, while government efforts to curb asset bubbles have spurred turmoil in the debt market and conjured fears of company defaults. The Shanghai Composite has fallen 12 percent in 2016, poised for its biggest annual loss in five years, while the yuan is heading for its worst year since 1994.
…
with a rising dollar doesnt the PBOC have to print more yuan to make up the difference?
If “schlong” isn’t a Chinese word, it may turn into one.
Looking forward to an interesting 2017 in terms of interest rates.
The Financial Times
Federal Reserve
The Fed is staring at a nasty rate dilemma in 2017
Policymakers may have to juggle a rising dollar, higher yields and a lag in any Trump stimulus
Markets Insight
Janet Yellen
yesterday
by: Richard Clarida
The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates last week was the easy part. Synching up monetary policy with new US fiscal policy and the global economy could be more difficult.
Since the election more than a month ago, investors’ reassessment of US economic prospects and the ensuing dramatic repricing of stocks, bonds and inflation expectations no doubt increased the Fed’s confidence that the US economy no longer requires “emergency” monetary policy. Already encouraged by the economic data — a 4.6 per cent unemployment rate with rising core measures of inflation — the Fed (according to its widely scrutinised “dot plot”) is considering three more hikes in 2017.
The question for investors now is how will the Fed’s plans to normalise interest rates in 2017 fit with the potential sea change in US fiscal policy under a Donald Trump presidency and volatile global markets.
Under a Trump administration, aggregate demand in the US economy could eventually get a boost from a fiscal package of tax reform, tax cuts, and infrastructure spending. And depending on the details of any legislation that gets enacted, these policy changes could potentially lift the supply side and the pace of productivity growth of the economy as well.
Markets calm amid bloodshed
However, the risk today is that markets are pricing in more fiscal stimulus than we are actually likely to get in 2017. Debating, marking up bills and passing tax reform will take time and any effort to boost infrastructure investment will only come on line in 2018 or later.
That could create awkward timing in which bond yields and the dollar will continue rising next year in anticipation of fiscal stimulus that might not be felt until much later. Were this to happen, financial conditions would tighten next year without an offsetting boost from fiscal policy, and the Fed would need to take this into account when calibrating the pace of rate increases. To put it bluntly, the Fed would be inclined to let the bond market vigilantes do some of the tightening for them.
…
GRoSsLY. OvERpRICED. aSSeTS
In China, extend-and-pretend seems to have entered its terminal phase.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-money-banks-idUSKBN14506D
Three IMF heads in a row are convicted criminals. Hmm. Maybe its time we locked up the banksters, our asleep-at-the-switch enforcers, and their Establishment political enablers.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/12/19/europes-stranglehold-imf-has-become-curse/
In Italy, the can-kicking is running out of road.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-20/monte-paschi-private-bailout-edge-collapse-potential-anchor-investors-balk
“I have never been more bullish on stocks!” expert on cnbc
dung ho
I’ll be we have m ore fed agencies pretending to be involved w housing than any commie country
drainage !
Mike isn’t going to like this:
‘Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio, the founder of $160 billion hedge-fund behemoth Bridgewater Associates, expects we’ll see a significant shift in the economy when president-elect Donald Trump takes office.’
“Trump is a deal maker who negotiates hard, and doesn’t mind getting banged around or banging others around. Similarly, the people he chose are bold and hell-bent on playing hardball to make big changes happen in economics and in foreign policy (as well as other areas such as education, environmental policies, etc.),” Dalio wrote in a LinkedIn post.’
‘He went on to recommend reading libertarian author Ayn Rand to understand the economic environment that could unfold under Trump.’
“Regarding economics, if you haven’t read Ayn Rand lately, I suggest that you do as her books pretty well capture the mindset. This new administration hates weak, unproductive, socialist people and policies, and it admires strong, can-do, profit makers. It wants to, and probably will, shift the environment from one that makes profit makers villains with limited power to one that makes them heroes with significant power.”
Mike, don’t lose it!
‘hates weak, unproductive, socialist people and policies’
Those would include children, the elderly, the disabled, and so forth. There’s also all of those people addicted to opioids in Appalachian and Rust Belt areas that voted for Trump. Life could get even worse for all of them.
DJT hates CULLS
Those who endure Mikey’s daily HBB posts can well understand the pain that drives people to opioids.
“Those would include children, the elderly, the disabled, and so forth.”
No, Mikey. Either you take things too literally or you just like to twist words and concepts. Dalio is referring to people in business, government, etc.
I watched many of Trump’s rallies and on occasion, he would acknowledge that “children, the elderly, the disabled, and so forth” need to be taken care of and they would be. I believe him, since there are many stories of him personally taking care of this or that person or group who were going through hard times. Granted, this was mostly in New York City, although there’s this story here, for example, about the Marine who “merciful” Obama left to rot in a Mexican prison:
http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/donald-trump-quietly-helped-marine-whom-obama-ignored/
I didn’t merely take him literally. I’ve noticed that his appointments have much in common with the kind of people Ronald Reagan would have appointed. You also failed to notice that Dalio mentioned Ayn Rand. Since you like YouTube so much, take a look at this.
Ayn Rand on “Subnormal” Children and the Handicapped
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1HD8KXn-kI
An Trump/Reagan/Rand administration would bring big tax cuts for the rich and cuts in programs for poor children, the disabled, etc.
“An Trump/Reagan/Rand administration” doesn’t and won’t exist, except maybe in your own mind. For one thing, Reagan and Rand are dead.
I don’t know Dalio. However, I have read that the state of Connecticut depends on him and his company for a certain amount of its income and they do keep tabs on him, and some others:
http://www.courant.com/business/hc-ap-connecticut-rich-residents-dont-leave-20150209-story.html
A lot of that money allows Connecticut to dispense largesse to its less fortunate residents.
“Since you like YouTube so much”
What does that even mean? I watch stuff on youtube from time to time, and sometimes post links to stuff, yes. So what? Don’t you? No need to give me the “Your mother wears army boots” or “So’s your old man” routine. The two posts that probably brought that comment on weren’t even from youtube, btw. Debbie Downer was from NBC’s SNL archive link and the Obamumentary was snag films.
Reagan and Rand are not available to participate in the new Administration. Convicting Trump in advance on what you imagine Rand would do is childish.
So you think that Dalio is mistaken. Unlike Paul Ryan, Trump is not a devotee of Ayn Rand. Let’s all disregard Ray Dalio.
“Those would include children, the elderly, the disabled, and so forth. There’s also all of those people addicted to opioids in Appalachian and Rust Belt areas that voted for Trump”
You mean all the people Hope and Change didn’t work out for.
“Life could get even worse for all of them.”
After 8 years of Obama that is very doubtful.
Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim was a Trump nemesis. Now the president-elect says he’s ‘wonderful’
Donald Trump has decided that Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim, one of his favorite villains during the presidential election, might not be so bad after all. He’s even “wonderful,” Trump now says.
The two dined together Saturday at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, after which Trump had only nice things to say about Slim, according to a report in the Washington Post. Trump described the interaction with his erstwhile nemesis as “a lovely dinner with a wonderful man.”
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-mexican-billionaire-calros-slim-was-a-1482187780-htmlstory.html
Obviously everyone in Donald Trump’s world either sucks or is wonderful.
The Wall is approaching, time to snare your beta bux:
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/woman-says-she-sells-positive-pregnancy-tests
Betters also inform that Red Pill is now racist. Listen to your betters…
an interesting tidbit I discovered the other day.
Do you guys know who is responsible for the losses the FED has on their treasury holdings?
A hint : Its certainly not them.
You are correct that they would not be responsible for any losses—profits or losses AFTER expenses (e.g. they pay themselves and their staff whatever they please) flow through to the US Treasury’s financials.
In other words, the taxpayers would bear any losses. Or another way of looking at it: the Fed already pays its minions whatever they like on the taxpayer’s dime.
But you are incorrect in assuming that they will incur losses in the first place; they are one of only a few entities that have no limit to their liquidity, so why would they choose to realize any losses at all while market values are down?
Hint: they will hold everything to maturity, if not longer (e.g. rolled over).
love you mom