December 23, 2016

Hitting The Ceiling, Seeing Some Prices Fall

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Palm Beach County home prices softened in November, reflecting a shift away from the strong seller’s market of recent years. The median price of houses sold last month was just $300,000, the lowest point since March, the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches said Wednesday. Sales totaled 1,225, the weakest showing since February. In a telltale sign of the direction of the housing market, the inventory of homes for sale is increasing. There was a 5.1-month supply of houses on the market in November, an 11 percent increase from a year ago. Mike Pappas, president of The Keyes Co., sees a shortage of homes priced at less than $300,000 but a glut of mansions listed at more than $1 million. ‘It’s a tale of two cities right now,’ Pappas said.”

“According to the report, average rents for a two-bedroom in metro Denver fell from $1,371 to $1,368 during the third quarter. When they released the report, experts attributed those dips in part to new luxury buildings keeping overall rents high. A boom in construction has also meant more inventory on the market, which has led to a vacancy rate of 5 percent, up from 3.9 percent two years ago. That figure means there were around 16,000 vacant apartments regionally. ‘We’ve seen more apartment units built in the last three years than in the 11 years prior to that combined,’ said Mark Williams, executive vice president of the apartment association ‘The long-term impact of the new supply on rents is unmistakable.’”

“Even if the dip last fall was a temporary one and rents only level off instead of dropping significantly, experts say that’s still a big moment. Teo Nicolais, a Harvard University instructor who specializes in real estate, called it ‘a milestone in Denver’s real estate cycle,’ because rents had been rising so steadily for so long. ‘In simple economic terms: demand far exceeded supply in recent years, but with all the new homes being delivered, supply is starting to catch-up,’ he said.”

“During the oil boom North Dakota had some of the highest rent prices in the country, but with the oil slowdown prices have dropped in commercial and housing rentals. ‘When we have more supply and less demand, it’s going to be cheaper,’ said Shirley Dukart, a broker with Home and Land Co. in Dickinson. ‘Whereas we had a lot of demand and less supply.’ Dukart said she would estimate that commercial rentals have dropped somewhere around 30 percent in the past year because of supply and demand.”

“Earlier this month, a report from Apartment Insights Washington showed that rents have peaked and begun to come down in some of the hottest parts of the metropolitan area. For example, rents downtown are 2.8 percent lower than the previous quarter and down 3.5 percent in the University District. Don’t expect Seattle to turn into Mesa, Arizona, anytime soon. This is a coveted superstar city and you get what you pay for. But hitting the ceiling, seeing some prices fall, and apartments offering incentives, too, are all signs that market forces can still work.”

“Vancouver’s long-awaited housing correction may be around the corner: prices are headed for a double-digit decline in 2017 as buyers drop out of the market, according to the head of Canada’s largest real estate services company. ‘Home prices had gotten so out of whack with the growth in underlying wages and salaries that there had to be a correction,’ said Phil Soper, chief executive officer of Royal LePage. ‘Thank goodness there’s going to be a measure of sanity returning to the market.’”

“The downturn in the Perth housing and construction market has claimed a high-profile victim with listed developer and builder Diploma Group collapsing owing creditors about $40 million. In November, Diploma Group reported to the market that Diploma Construction (WA) was likely to report a $32.5 million loss including $20 million of write-downs. In May, Diploma Group said it was reviewing its operations ‘in light of the current property and commercial construction markets it operates in, in Western Australia.’”

“There are two main reasons why Singaporeans buy property abroad. The first is as an escape plan. At the rate our cost of living rises, McDonald’s looks like a five-star restaurant to some retirees. The other reason is good old Asian values. We have a land ownership / property bias, and we want to own a house somewhere; anywhere. Last year, I could paint a red bullseye on a zinc shack in Syria, and a Singaporean somewhere would still give me his life savings for it. Fortunately, we may have developed more common sense of late.”

“Things came to a head last year, which was the worst year for foreign property scams and disputes. EcoHouse Brazil was not a property developer or seller per se – but they did convince Singaporeans to invest in social housing schemes to earn returns. They collected $65 million from 800 Singaporeans, between 2011 till their sudden disappearance in 2015. Then there was the shocking Kawarau Falls incident, in which some Malaysian and Singaporean investors were successfully sued for $33 million (they had previously already lost their deposit, when the developer went bankrupt).”

“This was one reason why Singaporeans began to cool off overseas property at the time – but this year, several more reasons came into play. Singapore property prices are at their lowest in years, and still falling. Iskandar is now facing an oversupply issue. No escape from loan curbs in Singapore or Australia. Weak economic conditions. Recall that one motivation to buy overseas was being priced out of the local market. That won’t be true for long.”

“Auckland’s huge $250 million St James apartment project has become the latest victim of tightening bank finance, the developer says. Steve Bielby of Relianz Holdings said the banks’ biggest concern seemed to be around ’settlement risk.’ Although the project was fully pre-sold, he said banks were aware that it was a very large development in an increasingly expensive construction market and that people only had to make a 10 per cent deposit.”

“Martin Dunn of City Sales apartment real estate agency said the Auckland apartment market was coming to the end of its current cycle next year ‘which was going to happen without [Reserve Bank governor] Graeme Wheeler’s input.’ This was despite escalating demand, given that all the CBD apartments expected to be finished next year were already sold. ‘Even good developers are struggling with funding. The big ones will get it but I think the frustrating outlook for us is we’ve got a drop in values at the moment,’ he said.”

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-23 10:16:03

Yeah, it’s a “shocker” that rents are down in Seattle. Gosh, even in a progressive, coveted city, market forces can work! You know there’s a bubble when reporters gush like they live in some fantasy world that will never be interrupted.

Comment by palmetto
2016-12-23 10:23:24

“This is a coveted superstar city”

Wut? No wonder people despise the media. And let’s not forget, Tampa Bay is going to be the San Diego of the East Coast.

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-23 10:30:59

If San Diego is an aspiration then I’m a Texas billionare.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-23 12:16:19

It’s utterly unaffordable, but it does have its plusses.

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Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-23 13:00:02

It’s unaffordable everywhere else too. Remember…. It’s a global housing bubble this time.

Comment by 17 Intel Agencies
2016-12-23 11:27:38

Depressing weather 11 months a year.

Comment by junior_kai
2016-12-23 14:00:23

Youre being generous, its more like 13 months a year. And that depression explains a lot about its politics. Angry pasties! Or is it pasty angries?

Comment by rms
2016-12-23 14:56:08

“Youre being generous, its more like 13 months a year.”


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Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2016-12-23 15:07:23

“This is a coveted superstar city”

No, it’s a massive speculative bubble which will be bringing immense financial pain to many, many people.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-12-23 10:18:01

Boulder, CO Housing Prices Crater 7% YoY

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-23 10:18:33

‘the banks’ biggest concern seemed to be around ’settlement risk.’ Although the project was fully pre-sold, he said banks were aware that it was a very large development in an increasingly expensive construction market and that people only had to make a 10 per cent deposit’

Uh, we’re told rising construction costs just made existing projects more valuable. Settlement risk means would-be buyers will bail. That’s why your funding got yanked.

Comment by azdude
2016-12-23 11:24:29

the high dollar construction crews are still here finishing up paving and underground. models are done. When u go into the models homes to look they want all your info.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-23 10:46:28

Please, Canada, take in our Trump refugees. Every single one of these losers is a net liability.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-23 11:03:52

Al-Uqdah has visited Canada several times and during each visit, she felt a sense of welcome and inclusivity. She said she’s eying both Quebec and Ontario as potential places to resettle. She, like many liberal Americans, is also drawn by Canada’s universal healthcare system.

The bottom line motivation for all these “fearful” liberals is always the same: the ability to sponge off a generous entitlement system.

Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2016-12-23 19:06:16

It’s not like the US system is fairly priced, it’s pretty much garbage.

Comment by somedewd
2016-12-24 05:46:15

none of the systems are fairly priced because there’s a complete lack of pricing transparency and no way to measure the quality of product you receive.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-23 11:06:58

‘Cohen noted that many of his American clients are surprised to learn it’s much more difficult than they expected to pick up and settle in Canada. Each year, he said, anywhere between 8,000 and 10,000 Americans pack their bags for Canada.’

“Often when Americans call us they’re surprised to learn that, for example, if they have a DUI, that’s going to help prevent them from setting up in Canada or may prevent them. That they actually do require a specific work permit to come to Canada. Do all Americans think that? No. But a good portion of Americans believe that it is easier to come to Canada than it actually is.”

“I personally find it obnoxious because it plays into this trope that I think a lot of liberal Americans have, which is this idea that Canada is this perfectly progressive utopia,” said J J McCullough, a Toronto-based cartoonist and political commentator.’

“[It's] very disrespectful of a great gift that they’ve been given in life, which is to be born in the United States, to have all the opportunities that that entails and to give all of that up for, you know, because you’re a bit of a sore loser in an election that didn’t go your way? I just have a very, very hard time sympathising with that,” added McCullough.’

‘This type of attitude was prevalent on social media during and after the election and troves of Canucks voiced - often laden with sarcasm - that it should be their government building a wall. “We don’t want y’all Americans here in Canada, a few years down the road you’ll probably be voting for Justin Bieber as our prime minister,” tweeted Jarin Fullerton, a 19-year-old mechanic from the coastal Maritimes town of Parrsboro, Nova Scotia.’

‘if they have a DUI’

A DUI? Don’t you racist Canadians know these people might have to use the men’s bathroom? BTW I was listening to a local radio show by border patrolmen. They were talking about what crimes should be grounds for deportation. When it came to pedophilia, Barbara Boxer said no.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-23 11:16:26

Most Americans have no idea of how hard it is to get papers to live in another country. They think they can just show up and will be welcomed with open arms.

BTW I was listening to a local radio show by border patrolmen. They were talking about what crimes should be grounds for deportation. When it came to pedophilia, Barbara Boxer said no.

Hardly surprising. I have little doubt the left is planning on championing pedos once they get back into power.

Comment by 17 Intel Agencies
2016-12-23 12:14:52

Left is blinded by votes. Every brown person is considered a vote and they will do anything to keep them around.

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Comment by palmetto
2016-12-23 11:22:20

“When it came to pedophilia, Barbara Boxer said no.”

ARE YOU FREAKIN’ SERIOUS? She actually said that????

Well, if that don’t take the rag right off the bush. They’re not even pretending anymore. I guess she, if not actually involved herself, was protecting some of her fellow politicians. And maybe some of her donors.

Anyone who thinks pizzagate isn’t real is just whistling past the graveyard.

Here’s this gem from AP today, linked on Drudge:

This crap is far worse and more pervasive than many realize. The lid needs to be blown off it.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-23 15:14:01

Re: Pizzagate, I tend to agree with Scott Adams, creator of “Dilbert.” Lots of smoke, but no smoking gun. Nothing is worse than false accusing people of things they haven’t done.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-23 11:27:06

When it came to pedophilia, Barbara Boxer said no.

Uh, yeah…and “Pizzagate” is fake news.

Comment by palmetto
2016-12-23 11:41:07

“Pizzagate” is fake news.

Oh, hell, YEAH, right? That’s really why they came up with “fake news”, after people started digging in to the Pedosta files. And “Russia did it”, that was the other one.

I heard all this stuff about what the NYPD found on the Weiner laptop and how they were gonna go public. Never happened and Comey squelched it pretty quick.

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Comment by redmondjp
2016-12-23 11:57:09

Yup. You know, the movie ‘Eyes Wide Shut’ was quite the sensation when it came out, but it turns out that reality is 10x worse.

Absolute power is the ultimate aphrodisiac.

One only has to look at the Podestas’ artwork of underwear-clad children to know that they are some seriously deviant people.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-23 12:14:14

Even scarier is that the Screecher got as many votes as she did with this having gone public. Thank goodness they underestimated and didn’t stuff the ballot box even more.

Comment by junior_kai
2016-12-23 14:13:36

Just a little analysis and common sense would lead someone to realize something is seriously wrong. One of the most politically powerful people in DC owns a pizza place, a middling business with low margins, lots of competition and a fickle consumer base? How does that happen? And whats up with all the super creepy art and posts on instagram? Those facts alone should set off alarm bells. Dig deeper and you find accused (and convicted) pedos as big campaign donors as well as on the board of directors for the Clinton foundation.

Comment by palmetto
2016-12-23 17:25:22

Thanks for the links, T-Boom. Great summary at the second link.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2016-12-23 18:34:56

Don’t even get me started about Creepy Joe.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-23 12:05:46

“Often when Americans call us they’re surprised to learn that, for example, if they have a DUI, that’s going to help prevent them from setting up in Canada or may prevent them.

From what I’ve heard, they”ll reject you even as a tourist if you have a DUI.

I’ve also had interesting experiences in other countries. Few things are worse than going through the non-EU passport control line at Heathrow. More than half the people in that line are Asians, and it moves slowly. Sure, once it’s your turn to see an agent, your US passport breezes you through. But most agents have some grim faced Indian or Pakistani dude at their station, and they rake him over the coals for what seems like an eternity.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-23 12:22:32

‘they”ll reject you even as a tourist if you have a DUI’

Canadians are far right.

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Comment by 17 Intel Agencies
2016-12-23 12:50:20

Almost nazi like.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-23 12:55:06

OK everybody, calm down. We can still escape this fascist bathroom dictatorship in Mexico, right?

‘Visitante – Visitor Permit for Short Term Visits’

‘The ‘Visitante‘ permit is intended for visitors—usually tourists and business visitors—to Mexico on short term visits of six months or less. For trips of longer than six months, a non-immigrant or immigrant visa should be considered.’

‘A Visitor’s Permit is issued when you arrive in Mexico (by air, or travel inland by road beyond the ‘free border zone’) by completing a Forma Migratoria Multiple (FMM): these forms are issued by airlines, and are also available at ports of entry. The Visitor Permit is valid for upto 180 days and cannot be renewed. Upon its expiry you will need to leave the country*.’

‘Mexico operates what is known as a Temporary Resident Visa, intended for people who wish to live in Mexico for more than 6 months and not longer than 4 years. The Temporary Resident Visa is a renewable, long-term (more than six months) permit which gives non-immigrant temporary residency status to the holder. The visa is issued for one year, and can can then be renewed for a further 1, 2, or 3 years (i.e. 1+3, 4 years max); this visa can optionally give work permissions, and allows unlimited entries to, and exits from, Mexico. This means that it gives a person holding the permit the right to live in Mexico for up to 4 years under terms as set out in the visa.’

‘There are various categories under which the Temporary Resident visas are granted, and these relate to the activities you intend to undertake while in Mexico. Under the terms of the Temporary Resident Visa, you are authorized to only undertake certain, specific, activities which may be lucrative or non-lucrative, depending on the visa’s classification.’

‘A key criterion that the Mexican authorities require for the issuance of a Temporary Resident Visa is that the applicant prove that they have ‘sufficient funds to sustain themselves while in Mexico’ and/or a proven steady income. The financial requirements are based in Mexican pesos, and the various financial criteria been formalized following the introduction of the new immigration law that was enacted in 2012.’

“With a few exceptions, the Temporary Resident Visa cannot be issued to you in Mexico; you must apply for it at a Mexican consulate outside of Mexico. This is a change to the rules before 2012, where Visitor Permits could previously be exchanged for Resident Visas if the person(s) fulfilled the criteria. This article explains who can apply for residency within Mexico.”

We’re surrounded by Nazi’s!

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-23 13:01:44

Imagine if entry laws were enforced here. CA would lose what….. Half it’s population or more?

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-12-23 15:07:48

“they”ll reject you even as a tourist if you have a DUI”

And if the OPP board your house boat or cruiser, even at anchor on one of their beautiful waterways, and you have an empty open container on the counter, it’s a DUI. It is assumed you are not the “designated driver”.

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Comment by Truth
2016-12-23 17:58:28

They don’t reject you; they charge a 200 dollar “rehabilitation fee”.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-23 10:46:43

‘Recall that one motivation to buy overseas was being priced out of the local market. That won’t be true for long’

But you were never going to move overseas. Just speculating. What did being priced out locally ever have anything to do with it?

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-23 10:52:01

‘prices are headed for a double-digit decline in 2017 as buyers drop out of the market, according to the head of Canada’s largest real estate services company. ‘Home prices had gotten so out of whack with the growth in underlying wages and salaries that there had to be a correction,’ said Phil Soper, chief executive officer of Royal LePage. ‘Thank goodness there’s going to be a measure of sanity returning to the market.’

This may seem like the acceptance phase:

‘The five stages, denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance are a part of the framework that makes up our learning to live with the one we lost. They are tools to help us frame and identify what we may be feeling. But they are not stops on some linear timeline in grief.’

But it’s not. It’s more likely denial. At best bargaining, saying “OK that part had to go but the rest is still mine”. Jeebus, Vancouver went up 30% in one quarter early this year.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-23 12:07:11

The Vancouver crash will be breathtaking.

Comment by new attitude
2016-12-23 12:55:02

Trump is about to crush China with a 10% tariff and hopefully put and end to trading fake Yuan for real US properties. Good news for usa solar panel cos….wait, are there any?

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-23 13:09:51

With oil prices cratering, there is no need for solar panels. Fire up them oil burners boys….

The best part starts at 3:50. Enjoy.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-23 15:17:41

Sure, and Douche Bank is going to pay the DoJ a $14 billion dollar fine…oh wait, it was reduced to $2.5 billion, and of course no one at the bank was charged with a crime despite its massive, systemic frauds.

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Comment by Truth
2016-12-23 17:59:38

Buh but..: everyday low prices!

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Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-23 20:00:22

And going lower my friend. Much lower

Comment by Al
2016-12-23 13:26:51

Might well be the biggest bubble (from a price to income perspective) ever.

Comment by tj
2016-12-23 10:53:31

hillry would have given us more of this:

George Washington University Removes U.S. History as a Requirement for History Majors

Comment by SW
2016-12-23 11:01:06

‘We’ve seen more apartment units built in the last three years than in the 11 years prior to that combined’

What’s wrong with this picture? I would bet that immigration+natural citizen growth does not equal enough demand to fill half those apartments.

Comment by 17 Intel Agencies
2016-12-23 11:38:33

Why do you complain? Rents will go down. Winning!

Comment by ethan in northern va
2016-12-23 14:47:59

Until they’re sold as condos

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-24 07:41:58

They can’t rent them at half the monthly cost of a mortgage but they’ll sell them instead?

And where do you propose they find these DebtDonkeys?

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Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-23 11:01:18

“‘In simple economic terms: demand far exceeded supply in recent years”

I don’t see much demand here. Looks to be at 1997 levels and sinking. How bout it.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-12-23 11:01:18

Is Monte dei Paschi too big to fail?

Comment by palmetto
2016-12-23 11:24:39

If Italy is nationalizing it, as I’ve heard, I guess the answer is yes.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-23 11:29:40

Cue bail-ins in 3-2-1…now that Cyprus has set the precedent for officially sanctioned theft of deposits to cover the banksters’ gambling losses and financial mismanagement.

Comment by new attitude
2016-12-23 11:21:37

Merry Christmas tightwads!!

May 2017 crash as hard as we all predict,

Comment by 17 Intel Agencies
2016-12-23 11:28:38

Donald Trump will not let it crash.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-23 11:31:40

From the fiscal conservative…

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-23 11:31:59

Demand already collapsed Lola. It doesn’t get any worse than this. Remember….. Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels.

Comment by 17 Intel Agencies
2016-12-23 11:25:53

17 Intel Agencies agree - Merry XMas and Happy new year!

Comment by azdude
2016-12-23 11:26:05

“when there is no organic growth you have to inflate the value of existing wealth.”

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-23 12:44:27

The problem with that failed approach is that demand collapses.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-23 11:28:51

Reposting from yesterday:

‘One only need to look to the sky to confirm that construction in the Pacific Northwest is booming. A recent report by Rider, Levett, Bucknall, a global company specializing in project management, cost estimating and legal advisory, shows 58 cranes dotting the Seattle skyline.’

‘The Seattle Times dubbed the city “the crane capital of America,” noting that it had more cranes on the job than any other city in the country.’

“I couldn’t swear that was true,” said Steve Kelly, an RLB spokesman based in Seattle. “But I know we have a lot. We do a crane count every six months in all cities where we are present, and we seem to have more than the other cities. We counted 58 back in June and we’re actually setting up another count this week.”

‘The report notes that the demand for cranes in Seattle is up nearly 50-percent in a year’s time.’

“In general, there is a lot of apartment building going on right now. There is one that looks to have 45 floors above ground level. If you multiple that by 15 that gives you the height of the thing. I only know what I saw in the Seattle Times about the demand for cranes. It looked like they had chatted with someone from Skanska who suggested any project coming in you have to very quickly get in line for a crane.”

‘Taylor Mayfield Sr., owner and founder of Mayfield’s Hoisting Services, can confirm the demand is great.’

“There are jobs I am working on right now that aren’t going to start for eight to 10 months,” said Mayfield, whose firm is headquartered in Seattle. “I got what we call a letter of intent today on a project in greater Seattle and the crane doesn’t go up until May next year. Right now I’ve got contractual agreements for 16 projects in [the] greater Seattle area.”

‘South of Seattle in the neighboring state of Oregon, Portland also is experiencing a boom in construction. “We are in the process of expanding down to the Portland Metro area,” Mayfield said. “Portland is a lot more spread out as far as the geographical area. There is a lot going on in Portland, you bet.”

‘Crane counts have increased 40 percent in Chicago, with residential construction accounting for 60 percent of the work. Construction in New York City continues to be strong. The majority of cranes are being used for mixed-use projects, predominately residential towers with street-level retail.’

‘In Phoenix, crane counts doubled over a six month period, with prominent sectors including residential, education, industrial, hospitality and mixed-use.’

Comment by redmondjp
2016-12-23 11:59:40

Apartments (as in communist countries) are the approved housing type for the proles. Single-family houses consume too much land and resources, and most aren’t located along light rail corridors.

Agenda 21 urban growth, already happening in a city near you.

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-23 12:40:29

Stick to the data my friend.

Beacon Hill Seattle Housing Prices Crater 12% YoY

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-12-23 23:37:11

Better hurry up and buy now, before rising rates price you out FOREVER!

Comment by Puggs
2016-12-23 11:40:43

Merry “overpriced” Christmas to all!!!

Hope many of you are enjoying a retail-free holiday as many of us are!

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-12-23 15:16:53

Thanks and 100% retail free here this “season”, except for the food and drink.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-23 11:54:15

‘Berlin truck attacker Anis Amri killed in Milan’

‘Amri, a Tunisian national aged 24, had served a prison sentence in Italy after being convicted of vandalism, threats and theft in 2011. He was known to Italian authorities for his violent behaviour while imprisoned.’

‘After his release he was asked to leave the country. He later arrived in Germany where he applied for asylum in April of this year. His application was rejected by the German authorities but they were unable to deport him to Tunisia because he had no valid identification papers.’

Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-23 12:11:06

Smart guys, those Tunisians. Once they dumped him on the EU chumps, they weren’t gonna take him back.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-12-23 12:40:53

but they were unable to deport him to Tunisia because he had no valid identification papers.’

Huh??!? They are unable to deport someone WHO HAS NO PAPERS, because… they have no papers???!???!? What kind of sense does that make? Why doesn’t every illegal in Germany just burn their papers?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-23 15:19:55

Our fundamental transformation doesn’t have to make sense. Just be assured that our globalist betters are the enlightened ones and do not need to explain their decisions to the proles.

Comment by oxide
2016-12-23 15:27:51

And if he had no papers, how did they know he was Tunisian?

Comment by taxpayers
2016-12-23 17:29:28

Any predictions ‘re rifs from the Donald?
In n va they act lines of spending will make others cuts a wash

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Comment by oxide
2016-12-23 18:27:27

Haven’t heard of any DJT-caused RIFs yet. But those new lapdogs in the cabinet might cause a few.

Comment by rms
2016-12-23 18:38:52

First out the door will be those feds who are seriously delinquent on their federally guaranteed student loans.

Comment by tresho
2016-12-23 15:38:20

Why doesn’t every illegal in Germany just burn their papers?
Shhhh… You are giving them ideas.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-23 15:52:47

It only makes sense if you read and listen to these globalists.

‘Under-fire EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker risked widening divisions with European leaders today by saying borders were the ‘worst invention ever’. He called for all borders across Europe to be opened, despite the chaos caused over the last year from the flood in refugees fleeing Syria and the wave of terror attacks hitting various continent’s cities.’

‘Speaking at the Alpbach Media Academy this morning, Mr Juncker said: ‘Borders are the worst invention ever made by politicians.’

‘The contentious remarks from the Brussels chief are the polar opposite of moves by elected leaders of EU member states who have tighten their borders over recent months after more than a million entered the bloc from Syria in less than a year.’

‘In another extraordinary remark, he appeared to warn of war on the continent if the EU disintegrates as he echoed the warning from the former French president Francois Mitterrand, who said nationalism added to nationalism would end in war.

‘This is still true so we have to fight against nationalism,’ Mr Juncker said. ‘We have to fight against nationalism, we have the duty not to follow populists but to block the avenue of populists.’

‘The embattled EU Commission president described Brexit as an ‘unheard-of political crisis’ for the EU but told EU member states that the only way of overcoming the challenge of Britain leaving would be to remain as one. ‘In the concentration of globalisation and European problems, we must not lose our way,’ he said.’

The globalists around the world are committed to this. That’s why they want open borders in the US. They have been saying this openly for decades.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-23 19:51:44

FWIW, this past summer, I didn’t have to show a passport when I went from:

Germany to Hungary
Hungary to Slovakia
Slovakia to Austria
Austria to Czech Republic
Czech Republic back to Austria
Austria to Germany

It sure seemed like open borders to me.

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Comment by rms
2016-12-23 21:56:15

Looks like it was a great vacation. Envy.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-23 12:00:23

‘The downturn in the Perth housing and construction market has claimed a high-profile victim with listed developer and builder Diploma Group collapsing owing creditors about $40 million.’

Stock holders wiped out. Many Yellen bucks just went to money heaven.


Mkt cap 2.83M

‘Diploma Group Limited is a construction and property development company. The Company is undertaking a portfolio of commercial, retail and residential projects. The Company’s projects include Capri Coastal Apartments, Rockingham and QUEST East Perth. The Company’s Capri Coastal Apartments, Rockingham is located within the Rockingham Beach Waterfront Village Precinct. The Company offers commercial construction and residential apartments, including multi-level residential, hotels, hospitality and tourism, commercial offices, retail, industrial offices, health and aged care, and sports and recreation. The Company offers a range of construction services, including design, construction project management, site management, construction management, construction supervision and contracting services. Its property development services include project identification, finance solutions, site acquisition and sales, marketing and property management services.’

Net profit margin 0.63% -12.03%
Operating margin 0.95% -15.40%
EBITD margin - -14.77%
Return on average assets 1.04% -10.96%
Return on average equity 20.25% -101.26%
Employees 93

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-23 12:42:49

Cratering beachfront depreciating assets.

Comment by azdude
2016-12-23 15:14:25

Since janet needs someone to unload some bonds onto, a bunch of folks scrambling to the safety of bonds due to a free falling stock market could potentially be her huckleberrys.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-12-23 20:18:41

Why would she ever need to unload any? She has unlimited liquidity to work with.

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Comment by Ol'Bubba
2016-12-24 06:53:29

Did you look at the link? This company is in Australia. It has a market cap of $2.83 Million (Australian).

I don’t think this issue will land on Janet Yellen’s radar screen.

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Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-24 08:55:53

A distinction without a difference. Remember….. It a massive unprecedented global bubble.

Dump that shanty for whatever it will fetch. You’ll be glad you did.

Comment by new attitude
2016-12-23 12:49:48

Everyone is ready for the party. It is known as “the Liberal Gun Club”, and since Trump’s victory it has experienced a huge surge in membership…

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-23 15:08:26

There will be no liberals after the coming collapse. There will be former liberals who managed to survive only after shedding their former delusions. The rest will be a cautionary tale for future generations.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-12-23 15:34:36


Comment by james joyce
2016-12-23 22:03:30

Who isn’t completely deluded. I don’t know a single person who isn’t struggling with something.
The world population is bursting at the seems, and neither Hillary or Trump could speak of it directly because we all have to pretend everything is great even though the Barbarians are at the gates.
And baby, Trump is a major barbarian. Let’s see how long it takes for him to trigger a global catastrophe.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-23 22:05:39

‘Who isn’t completely deluded’

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Comment by azdude
2016-12-23 13:39:54

are stocks gonna go into free fall again after the 1st?

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-23 13:46:01

I get these emails from HUD.


U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development – Julián Castro, Secretary


Public Schedule of U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro, The Week Ahead: December 26th – December 30th

(All times local; information and schedule are subject to change)

Monday, December 26th – Friday, December 30th

There are no public events.’

I contacted them about his schedule the last week of January. Haven’t heard back yet.

Comment by azdude
2016-12-23 15:32:17

there is no way in h@ll the top brass didn’t see that last housing bubble.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-23 16:05:16

This housing bubble was deliberate policy. Bernanke said it flat out. Mel Watt said “pedal to the metal” in 2015, at a casino!

‘We learned nothing from the last financial crisis. The housing market is set to collapse, again, and a key culprit, again, is artificial demand created by government policies.’

‘For starters, mortgage-software firm Ellie Mae reports that the average FICO credit score of an approved home loan plunged to 719 in January (the latest month for which data is available) from 731 a year earlier, and well below 2011’s peak of 750.’

‘It’s a dangerous sign lenders are loosening underwriting standards. Lower FICO scores correlate with higher risk of loan default.’

‘The Federal Housing Administration is a big reason for falling credit scores. So are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The government housing agencies have slashed credit requirements under pressure from the Obama administration — like the Clinton administration before it — to qualify more immigrants and minorities with low incomes and “less-than-perfect credit.”

‘Meanwhile, home lenders are approving more debt-strapped borrowers. According to Ellie Mae, applicants approved for mortgages in January had an average household debt-to-income ratio of 39%, up from 2012’s annual average of 34%. Borrower debt loads have been creeping higher each year since 2012, when Ellie Mae first started tracking such data.’

‘The American Enterprise Institute reports that its National Mortgage Risk Index for first-time buyers jumped almost a full percentage point in January from a year earlier, driven by “loose credit standards.” The demand from otherwise ­uncreditworthy home buyers “is driving home prices up faster than incomes and inflation,” noted ­Edward Pinto, co-director of AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk in Washington.’

‘This is especially true in hot spots like California, where subprime-mortgage lenders offering interest-only loans with no FICO-score requirements are cropping up from the ashes of Countrywide Financial, the bankrupt Calabasas, Calif.-based subprime giant.’

‘Like the last bubble, this one is fueled by artificial demand from government-induced lax lending standards and accommodative interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. “The result has been a rapid increase in real, inflation-adjusted home prices, with prices up nationally about 16.5% since the home-price trough in 2012,” Pinto said.’

‘He notes that once prices hit 20% or higher, historically, a painful drop in prices follows. “Home prices are subject to the law of gravity,” he said. “What goes up must come down.”

‘Pinto noted that prices for entry-level homes have climbed by an even higher 19%, making it harder for low-income borrowers to buy without taking out a high-risk loan they ­really can’t afford.’

‘Yet these kinds of borrowers are qualifying for such home loans thanks to the liberalization of credit terms. New federal rules regulating mortgages under President Obama’s “financial reforms,” despite claims of toughness, are not limiting the volume of high debt-to-income loans. While the rules do recommend a DTI ceiling, they never set minimum down-payment or credit-score requirements.’

‘Today’s relaxation in mortgage-underwriting standards is largely a function of government housing-policy changes at FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which dominate the nation’s mortgage activity. As in the last easy-credit cycle, we are seeing “the promotion of policy to push firms to seek riskier products to promote growth,” Wells Fargo Chief Economist John Silvia said.’

‘All three agencies have slashed down-payment and other requirements under pressure from Obama regulators, who include, most significantly, former Congressional Black Caucus leader and Obama appointee Mel Watt, head of the new Federal Housing Finance Agency, which now controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.’

‘Last year, Fannie Mae launched a new subprime-mortgage product called HomeReady that caters to recent immigrants with weak credit and limited income. The new loan program, which offers “income flexibility,” allows borrowers for the first time to bundle income from roommates and relatives to meet qualifications for income. They only have to put 3% down, and can use gifts from nonprofit groups to subsidize their down payments.’

“There is no limit on the number of non-borrower household members who can be present on a single transaction,” Fannie advises originators. And even then there is “documentation flexibility,” a frightening echo of last decade’s “no-doc loans.”

‘And you don’t need good credit. “If the borrower’s credit score is less than the minimum credit score required,” Fannie tells loan underwriters, “the lender may develop an acceptable nontraditional credit profile” that takes into consideration timely payments on electricity bills and car insurance — and even gym dues — in lieu of payments on credit cards and loans.’

‘Under HomeReady, you can even qualify for a “cash-out refinance” of your mortgage, a type of loan that led to over-leveraging and a wave of defaults during the mortgage crisis.’

‘Watt, who as a congressman once demanded Freddie Mac back loans for welfare recipients in his North Carolina district, has instructed Fannie and Freddie to come up with “alternative credit-scoring models” to FICO and approve more home buyers. “We have the pedal to the metal” on adopting a new model, Watt said.’

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Comment by cactus
2016-12-23 17:46:59


Comment by rms
2016-12-23 18:42:11

“In the interest of ‘fairness,’ Obama is lowering credit standards for mortgages — recreating the conditions that brought down the economy in 2008.”

So fairness is an economic policy?

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-12-23 23:40:36

‘Mel Watt said “pedal to the metal” in 2015, at a casino!’

This works out great every time for the guys currently in office.

The next generation of politicians and political appointees turn into bagholders.

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-23 14:03:51

Silverton, OR Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by azdude
2016-12-23 15:30:31

everyone knows this recovery is bs. Basically the rich enriching themselves.

This could be the short of a lifetime. someone has to pay for this party. there is no free lunch.

Bagholders wanted!

If I would have held onto my previous short positions I would have been down 50%. Know when to hold em and know when to hold em!

Time to shine up that nut sack and go against the herd!

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-23 15:46:03

The next black swans to appear will likely be geopolitical. Algos will go haywire when they have to deal with those headlines.

Comment by james joyce
2016-12-23 15:10:35

Obama defies Israel. What a class act!

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-23 15:12:44

Don’t be a Lola.

Comment by rms
2016-12-23 16:10:41

“Obama defies Israel.”

Fake news.

Comment by james joyce
2016-12-24 00:05:17

Tin foil hats.

Comment by rms
2016-12-24 03:58:55

SEP 2016: “After months of negotiating, the United States and Israel have signed a huge, $38 billion deal for military aid to the Jewish state — with some changes from previous pacts between the countries. The 10-year agreement is the largest in U.S. history, with a significant portion of the money expected to be used to upgrade Israel’s air force to Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter aircraft.”

Real news.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by azdude
2016-12-23 15:25:11


Comment by tresho
2016-12-23 15:27:53

Deutsche Bank agrees to $7.2 billion mortgage settlement with U.S.
Three major probes remain.

Deutsche faces investigations into the alleged manipulation of foreign exchange rates, suspicious equities trades in Russia, as well as alleged violations of U.S. sanctions on Iran and other countries.

Since 2012, Deutsche Bank has already paid more than 12 billion euros for litigation, including a deal with U.S. mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-23 15:44:35

Yet not a single DB executive has gone to prison or been criminally charged despite massive, systemic fraud. Heckova job, Eric Holder and Lorretta Lynch.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-23 15:30:40

Looks like Trump won’t be calling ISIS the “junior varsity” while endlessly chanting the PC “religion of peace” mantra.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-23 15:32:44

Let’s see how fast Trump moves out on protecting American families and taxpayers from Jeb Bush’s “acts of love.”

Comment by azdude
2016-12-23 15:48:51

“we are a very hopeful people.”

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-23 16:16:59

“Every year I shout out to conspiracy theorists around the world. I am not talking about abductions by almond-eyed aliens with weaponized anal probes (which really hurt, I hasten to add) but rather the simple notion that sociopathic men and women of wealth and power conspire. Folks who could get through 2016 without realizing this are imbeciles. I am talking totally blithering idiots. Markets are rigged. Government stats are cooked. Interest rates are set by fiat. Polls are skewed. E-mails are destroyed. Cover-ups abound. Everybody has an agenda. Watch this d-bag at one of the neocon think tanks—somehow so stupid as to not realize he’s being recorded—talk about how false-flag operations are commonplace. Meanwhile, the media conspires to convince us to the contrary. The folks who really piss me off, however, are the glib intellectuals—Nassim Taleb calls them “intellectuals yet idiots” (IYIs)—who suggest that conspiracy theorists are total ret*rds. (Saved by the asterisk, which baffles the sh*t outta me why that works.) Does it seem odd that the world’s most prominent detractor of conspiracy loons, Harvardian Cass Sunstein, is married to neocon Samantha Power, one of the great conspirers? It does to me, but I am susceptible to such dietrologie.”

– David Collum

Comment by azdude
2016-12-23 18:07:57

Their job is to get you to overpay.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-12-23 16:18:00

And even though it’s Christmas in two days, Realtors are still liars.

Realtors lie, it’s what they do, because Realtors are liars.

Comment by Big Fat Ugly Bubble
2016-12-23 17:47:43

They should get lumps of coal for Christmas!

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2016-12-24 07:07:29

Question for ya, Apt 401 - have you ever told a lie? Not even a little one?

In the spirit of Christmas I’ll say this - take the beam out of your eye before you cast the first stone.

Comment by Big Fat Ugly Bubble
2016-12-23 16:18:38

It looks like there are some people in the Vancouver area that still have their heads screwed-on straight:

“Two first-time homebuyers who qualify for the provincial government’s new interest-free loan program say they won’t be taking advantage of the loan because they don’t want to go into unnecessary debt.”

Some of their comments in the article sound very similar to the HBB’ers here.. who would have thought. Surprising they even published an article like that.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-23 16:27:50

‘Andy Anissimoff, a 37-year-old visual artist who currently rents in Squamish, is eligible for the program but said he doesn’t plan on using it because he thinks the real estate market is overheated. Anissimoff started looking for a duplex in 2013, but as the months passed, he saw prices rising at an alarming rate.’

“This is officially crazy,” he said. “And over the next year I watched [the market] balloon even further … I’m convinced that it’s a dangerous time.”

‘At this point, he doesn’t feel comfortable entering into the market. “In certain parts of this province this loan could be awesome,” he said. “But in Vancouver, Victoria and Squamish, I really think they’re exposing vulnerable buyers who are going to see this money evaporate in three months.”

‘Another eligible first-time buyer, Lauren Hinnen, is in a similar situation. Hinnen, a non-profit worker who lives in Mission with her husband, says she’s uneasy about getting a loan to pay down another loan. “We didn’t want to overextend ourselves,” she said. “We’re both really fiscally responsible and have strived really hard to be consumer debt-free over the years.”

‘Hinnen said it has been difficult to find a house, or even a condo or townhouse within her price range. “We’re not going to buy an overvalued house,” she said. “I’m actually concerned about going into the market with this looming because it is going to raise the amount of people looking for homes under the $750,000 range.”

Comment by inchbyinch
2016-12-23 16:39:38

We love Alexa. We asked her who Mrs Claus was. Her reply was she is Santa Claus’s wife and rumored to be the brains behind the operation. lol Alexa has been great fun.

Comment by james joyce
2016-12-23 16:51:46

Just found a stock that’s really rocking, but I only own 30 shares.
This baby could really soar if Trump continues as presently is.

Comment by azdude
2016-12-23 17:19:14

double down!

Comment by 17 Intel Agencies
2016-12-23 18:06:34


Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2016-12-23 19:13:57

Whoever makes nuclear bombs

Comment by james joyce
2016-12-23 21:08:10

Exxon is dull and safe. I like the riskier plays that have just made enormous discoveries. One is trading at six a share that just made a billion dollar deal.

Comment by james joyce
2016-12-23 21:11:19

On top of that, I have some high dividend stocks that are already up twenty percent this year. Oil won’t peak until 2021 and with the world in such turmoil fuggetaboutit.

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Comment by azdude
2016-12-24 06:43:56

smooth operator

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-12-24 09:42:21

Everyone is an investment genius while a bubble is raging…

Comment by Big Fat Ugly Bubble
Comment by azdude
2016-12-24 06:55:23

“If your gut tells you it’s rigged, there is a likelihood it is rigged.”

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-12-23 17:47:55

With drug addiction and overdose deaths continuing to rise, a pair of Chicago social workers have begun working to create a new type of school that promises teens a quality education while simultaneously helping them break free from their addictions.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-23 18:11:54

“Tyranny derives from the oligarchy’s mistrust of the people; hence they deprive them of arms, ill-treat the lower class, and keep them from residing in the capital. These are common to oligarchy and tyranny.”


Comment by azdude
2016-12-24 07:47:25

“When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.”

Comment by azdude
2016-12-24 05:53:28

off to do some painting and home repairs. Got to keep the retirement fund maintained.

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-24 07:37:38

Fetch me a Yule log and a bag of Cheetos before you get to work.

Comment by The Enrager
Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-24 07:39:55

On the first day of Christmas Crater Administrator gave to thee, a RageCage and a Joshua Tree.

Comment by azdude
2016-12-24 07:54:45

“That doesn’t mean the market won’t keep going up. Who knows what the maximum height or duration of irrational exuberance is (because who knows how crazy people can get); but I am certain of this much: the higher stock market rockets upward on such irrationality, the harder it falls into the chasm of ever-growing debt from which it has been constructed. NO significant economic reforms have happened since the start of the Great Recession. There has been no significant improvement in corporate earnings, just a lot of expanded debt to buy back shares in order to improve Price-Earning ratios, which still look terrible. The entire market is but a poof of speculative hot air.”

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-24 08:24:58

Housing my good friend. Housing.

Mission District San Francisco Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-12-24 07:41:08

Uh huh ..

Facing layoff at Carnival, IT employee makes bold counteroffer
Carnival IT employees face uncertain future as Capgemini takes over

Either agree to take a job with the contractor or leave without severance.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-24 07:49:46

The teletubby-shaped future cat ladies who cast votes for Crooked Hillary ate their feelings when they learned the election outcome, as they do after every major or minor roadbump in life.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-12-24 07:51:36

The Colony(Frisco) Texas Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY

Comment by FL_Skeptic
2016-12-25 07:30:20

I do not know where they are getting $300,000 for Palm Beach County. The analysis I did based on the Appraisal Districts sales data says $230,000 for qualified sales.

Tools - Sales Search - Qualified Sales

1513 Sales, but all records may not be in (2800 typical)
Median $265,000

Comment by Big Fat Ugly Bubble
2016-12-30 15:21:20

Seattle’s bubble is still raging pretty good. It’s funny.. so, there’s 13 million empty homes in various Chinese cities. Entire ghost towns were built, but instead of buying into their own country, they are buying anywhere and everywhere else in the world. I guess the Chinese people don’t like China very much.

From yesterday about Seattle:

““We do not see any slowdown at all, even during the holiday season. Buyers are going crazy,” said Mei Yang, a Seattle-based broker at Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty who specializes in serving Chinese clients. ”

“Compared to Vancouver, Seattle’s $612,400 median home price looks very cheap. With the 15 percent tax in Vancouver, Chinese buyers now prefer to invest in Seattle instead.”

““It is a good way for [Chinese investors] to diversify their assets because the real estate market in China is cooling off, and the Chinese currency is being devalued. So the Chinese buyers are in a hurry to invest in the U.S. real estate market,” she said.”

Buy buy buy…

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