Beyond The Light At The End Of The Tunnel
A report from the Sun Sentinel in Florida. “In May, Max Martin, an agent for the Keyes Co. in Fort Lauderdale, picked up a $1.25 million listing for a two-bedroom condominium with a direct oceanfront view at L’Hermitage in Fort Lauderdale. The owner recently authorized a fifth price cut in seven months, and now the unit is on the market for $899,000, Martin said. About 20 units are for sale in the building and nearly all have had price cuts, according to Martin, who says a new wave of condo construction in Broward is making it difficult for owners of existing units.”
“‘The luxury condo market is flooded,’ he said. ‘With all those new buildings in Fort Lauderdale, people want the brightest and the best. People who are selling luxury properties will have to be ready to make some major price drops.’”
The Daily Business Review. “When Newgard Development Group landed a construction loan for a high-end condominium in Fort Lauderdale, the financing came from Hall Structured Finance, a private lender — not your traditional bank. Howard Taft, who helped secure the $36 million loan for the Gale Residences, said only nonbank lenders like Hall were interested in backing the project. Traditional construction financing ‘is almost nonexistent’ for new condo and apartment projects across South Florida due to the large number of units already underway, said Taft, a senior managing director with Miami-based Aztec Group Inc.”
“Banks have all but exited that market. Taft said alternative lenders have stepped in to fill the financing void — but at a cost. ‘They are normally higher-priced, higher-cost loans, and [the lenders] are only dealing with the top-tier developers,’ he said.”
“In the past, Joshua Emory, a principal with Primrose Capital, would reach out to 10 of the usual lenders, including BB&T, BankUnited and Wells Fargo, among others, and generally all would show interest in financing the deal at hand. Today, however, the Miami capital broker has to reach out to 50 lenders to lure only a few term sheets. ‘Many of the banks we used to deal with to place construction loans are simply no longer originating construction debt,’ Emory said.”
“Miami-based TotalBank senior vice president James Venney noted an oversupply of condo inventory in specific markets like Miami’s Brickell and downtown corridor, Sunny Isles Beach and some parts of Miami Beach has been the main deterrent for lenders like TotalBank. ‘We certainly are here to serve the community, but we also need to make intelligent and thoughtful decisions on how we deploy money into the community,’ Venney said.”
From ABC Action News. “The latest real estate report shows housing prices around Tampa are continuing to get higher. The report, by real estate website Zillow, shows the cost of a home for sale around Tampa is up by around 11 percent year to year since 2006. The average home goes for around $177,000. However, that depends on where you’re looking. The average home in South Tampa sells for around $400,000.”
“Prices are inching closer to what they looked like before the housing bubble burst. ‘I think we’re beyond the light at the end of the tunnel,’ said Lisa Spencer, general manager at the Chadwick Group. ‘We’re actually in a full steam ahead market.’”
“Finding a home will cost more in popular areas like South Tampa, but she suggests people wanting to move there to consider other options, like purchasing an apartment instead. You could also rent. According to the Zillow study, rent prices are going down by around 10 percent, but the average rent remains at $1,300 a month.”
The Colony(Frisco) Texas Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/the-colony-tx/market-trends/
The Colony is not Frisco. Completely different cities.
Also Colony is mostly industrial/retail. Not many housing units
“Prices are inching closer to what they looked like before the housing bubble burst. ‘I think we’re beyond the light at the end of the tunnel,’ said Lisa Spencer, general manager at the Chadwick Group. ‘We’re actually in a full steam ahead market.’”
Whistling past the graveyard.
Haven’t you heard? Tampa is going to be the San Diego of the east coast! A realtor said so, and she has it on good authority from a developer. Buy now or be priced out forever!
Thankfully, Suzanne’s research has verified Lisa’s claims, sparing us the burden of doing our own due diligence. Where do I sign?
Beyond that light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train.
Will 2017 be the year that Yellen the Felon and the Keynesian fraudsters at the Fed finally get reined in?
http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-why-the-fed-threw-in-the-towel-2016-12
Depends on how Goldman Sachs feels about it…
From yesterday:
“Palm Beach County home prices softened in November, reflecting a shift away from the strong seller’s market of recent years. The median price of houses sold last month was just $300,000, the lowest point since March, the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches said Wednesday. Sales totaled 1,225, the weakest showing since February. In a telltale sign of the direction of the housing market, the inventory of homes for sale is increasing. There was a 5.1-month supply of houses on the market in November, an 11 percent increase from a year ago. Mike Pappas, president of The Keyes Co., sees a shortage of homes priced at less than $300,000 but a glut of mansions listed at more than $1 million. ‘It’s a tale of two cities right now,’ Pappas said.”
Here is the website:
http://pbcgov.com/papa/
Tools - Sales Search - Qualified Sales
I am seeing 1513 sales with a median of $265,000 for November. But it is too early to evaluate that month because it usually takes the more than 6 weeks to get most of the records in.
The November records show over 200 sales to Residential Condominiums LLC at $13,750,000 each that looks like some mass purchase. If you exclude those, there are 1,289 with a median sale price of $199,000. So they would have to be disqualifying a whole bunch of low end stuff to get the number they are quoting.
October shows 2610 sales, which is low but more typical. There may be more of those sales not yet recorded. That median is $230,000
The financial media are still trying to push “investors” in the RE market. Hmm…almost like there’s an agenda there or something.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buying-your-first-home-consider-a-duplex-2016-12-24?link=MW_latest_news
Aside from the insanity of that articles premise, that picture of a scene from the tv show Threes Company is the real shocker. Who knew the current insanity would make me look back at the 70s with fondness? And Suzanne Somers, ay carumba. Most american women dont look or dress like that nowadays - seems the hefty bag filled with potatos look is the all the rage today, even with the young ones. Seriously, something is beyond wrong when the 70s - THE 70s - make your society/culture look bad.
Don Knotts killing it in that suit, lol! Reminds me of the old tvs where the vertical hold would start to go and you’d smack the side of the tv to get it to stop, same thing with that suit!
Funny how a simple word or phrase - in this case, “vertical hold” - can harken a song from the distant past.
From the 1970s, no less. LOL - enjoy! Roll a fatty if you got one…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGFW9jCFml4
To a millennial watching old tv shows, the 70s looks pretty nice! Working people could afford houses and cars, women were fully liberated but the dual-income effect hadn’t wiped out affordability for one-earner families yet, everyone actually dressed up to go out to dinner. And watching ‘Hart to Hart’ and ‘Remington Steele’, the politeness and manners in everyday conversation is so evident.
Too bad about the whole avocado-and-gold color scheme. And the gas lines. And the rampant inflation. And the smog.
And the lack of cell phones. Seriously, there used to be entire stories built around miscommunications and getting lost.
Hey Donk.
“the lack of cell phones”
Good Lord, that must have been awful! Imagine having to show up someplace without being able to ask your hand how to get there.
We still carry the paper charts BTW, and know how to use them.
And no personal computers or internet. I remember Bill Gate’s “information at your fingertips” presentation. We take it for granted now, but back then it was pretty far fetched. And it wasn’t that long ago.
I remember my first cell phone. It was a huge Motorola flip phone. No internet, no texting, no apps, no GPS, just voice. It was very cool and almost amazing and today it’s a museum piece like the PC-XT and the first Macintosh.
And yet, civilization carried on without all that stuff. Want to check the weather forecast, check the cinema schedule, or wanted to buy a used car, there was the newspaper. Before there was Craig’slist, there was the PennySaver.
And there were 3 or 4 TV channels, maybe a few more if you lived in a large metro area.
“To a millennial watching old tv shows, the 70s looks pretty nice!”
More likely the 60’s, but I enjoyed your cursory review.
Yeah, Remington Steele and the like were decent shows. I havent had TV in 8 years, and very little in the last 25. Cr@p they show now is depraved, or some special effects orgy to cover up the fact that there is no plot. And thats the “quality” stuff.
Lets be honest, drugs killed off a lot of the culture. People destroyed their brains and rejected the great aspects of our culture and instead embraced the worst elements. Most people cant get through a sentence without uttering the f-word - they lack even the tiniest bit of self control. Similarly, when youre 50 or more pounds overweight, you are seriously detached from reality, and that is not a good place to be.
The government and Fed have game-ified real estate purchasing, as the stock market is game-ified. Unfortunately for those without a highly-priced existing RE asset, the price of entry to the game requires deeper and deeper debt, and the consequences that entails.
The game involves transferring several hundred thousand dollars of government money (via government insured loans) to the FIRE sector, using the purchaser as a pass-through entity (and the purchaser is on the hook for paying it back).
In order to keep the game going, the Fed and government punish savers and renters through near zero interest rates and increasing rents. They present us with very much a Hobson’s choice.
The Fed is the world’s largest economic entity, the richest of rich uncles. But unfortunately, they’re not telling Joe Blow and the rest of the Blows what they’re thinking or planning, in reality. That’s only available to the recipients of the government-insured loan largesse I mentioned above. We are most assuredly the sheep these people are trying to shear.
Yet, ironically, the low rates are absolutely CRUCIFYING bank returns. There is no free lunch- for anybody.
Are you suggesting the unholy cabal of realtards, economist whores, lobbyists, the politicians who take their bribes and the journalists who enjoy real estate industrial complex ad revenues might be up to no good?
‘Traditional construction financing ‘is almost nonexistent’ for new condo and apartment projects across South Florida due to the large number of units already underway…Banks have all but exited that market’
One would think that if banks are out, the national media might want to let buyers know. Prices per square foot are way higher than 2006. We’ve got towers halted 13 floors up in Miami Beach. Sellers slashing hundreds of thousands off prices and they can’t sell.
‘About 20 units are for sale in the building and nearly all have had price cuts, according to Martin, who says a new wave of condo construction in Broward is making it difficult for owners of existing units. ‘The luxury condo market is flooded…People who are selling luxury properties will have to be ready to make some major price drops’
I guess it’s hard to say the bubble has popped if they never acknowledged the bubble to begin with.
Hey, let’s crowd-fund these projects!
“If banks are out”
That must mean the CMBS market has dried up too, because surely the banks weren’t keeping the loans on their books. They would keep originating if the securitization machine were still operational, but it sounds like they’ve run out of bagholders.
Speaking of, I know people who literally just bought a Miami condo last month. LAST MONTH! Despite tons of info available, and articles from here I passed on to them. Good luck with that.
My brother bought a condo in St. Paul a couple of years ago as an “investment” despite my naysaying. Now he’s cut $75K off the asking price and it still isn’t moving. He said the market basically dried up around September. He’ll be lucky to break even, not counting the extensive labor and time he put into refurbishing the place.
House I inquired about last year, selling for 219, realtor said the owner was eager to sell, but lo and behold after my inquiry raised the price to 259. Just saw it come back on the market at 239. You cant fix stupid.
not counting the extensive labor and time he put into refurbishing the place
Uh, that’s not breaking even then.
When you’re a financial basket case as a result of levering up on depreciating assets, mathematical gyrations are necessary in order to maintain a semblance of control.
There are roughly 40 million out there just like this.
I didn’t think they securitized construction loans about which this article was referring.
It appears that the conservative money is out of financing projects that have an iffy chance of coming to market. Man this is going to be ugly when it really lets loose!
From the fort Lauderdale Article. I can not grasp the concept of low to middle being upto $500,000. When I lived in Fort Lauderdale 10+ years ago the top 3 percent earned more than 200k (I am assuming taxable $200K since the data was from the IRS)
At 2.5 x income (the old rule of thumb) only 3 per cent can buy the top end of the low and middle. My son is down there now visiting his mother. He says it is a concrete jungle and traffic is insane. He also wonders why “everyone” is driving 20 miles under the speed limit.
” He also wonders why “everyone” is driving 20 miles under the speed limit.”
They’re all stuff full of oxycontin.
$500K move up houses. Old small house sells for a bunch, roll it forward and take out a $250K loan on the new place.
The Double Down Debt Donkeys.
“Sellers slashing hundreds of thousands off prices and they can’t sell.”
What is it that goes wrong in someone’s skull that compels them to pay retail+100-300% for what has always been a depreciating asset and think they’re going to sell it for more?
FOMO
Collapsing housing demand my friend. Collapsing housing demand.
‘The luxury condo market is flooded…People who are selling luxury properties will have to be ready to make some major price drops.
The caterwauling of “I’m not going to GIVE it away!” will shortly be reaching a crescendo, as the stamping of tiny feet triggers seismic detectors in all 50 states.
‘The Mayor and City Council Have Destroyed LA’s Housing Price System … Why, You Ask?’
‘The City of Los Angeles has intentionally destroyed the housing market and the result is devastating the entire city. Here we have a prime example of a City government that has so screwed up the Price System for housing that builders are constructing for a market segment in which there is a glut while ignoring the segment that has a shortage.’
‘Developers have been misled into constructing high-end luxury apartments when the demand for that type of housing is falling.’
‘Although we know the City has been destroying rent-controlled units — and this fact alone would cause an increase in homelessness, placing upward pressure on rents — it does not explain the huge increase in the market segment that is over built: higher end apartments.’
‘While younger Millennials still in the Dorm Room Phase of life have been doubling and tripling up in order to rent over-priced apartments, there has still been a 12% glut of these units, per the City’s own data. Yet, rents have continued to increase between 2013 and 2016. The false reporting of alleged vacancy rates has misled people into believing that there is a housing shortage when there has been none.’
‘Belief in a housing shortage is another reason for prices to increase year after year while demand decreases. People pay what they believe is the market rate. As in the 2000s, developers have continued to build under the misconception that there has been a housing shortage.’
‘For too long, the City of Los Angeles has been owned by real estate developers. Thus, the City has no process to provide for the quality of life of Angelenos.’
Like others cities, tens of thousands of mostly luxury units on the way.
‘Bad news for home sellers: Price slowdown for California!’
‘Pending home sales in California have dropped during the past two months when compared to the same time period last year, indicating that a statewide housing market slowdown likely is in the works, the California Association of Realtors said Thursday.’
‘Across the state, Realtors responding to the CAR’s November Market Pulse Survey reported a decline in floor calls, listing appointments and open house traffic. Realtors also were about 300 percent more concerned with a deal- slowing rise in interest rates compared to October.’
‘Consequently, the share of homes selling below asking price rose from 40 percent in November 2015 to 44 percent in November 2016.’
‘Bad news for home sellers: Price slowdown for California!’
Oh, dear. Does that mean a price slowdown for Tampa Bay? I mean, seeing as how Tampa Bay is going to be the San Diego of the East Coast.
(I know I’m harping on this, but it was one of the most pretentious, delusional things I’ve ever heard from a local realtor, and that’s saying something)
Palmy, my brother, mocking realtors and their self-serving, ludicrous, permabull prognostications never gets old. Harp away.
I do agree — many/most realtors are liars and perma-bulls and everything, but there’s some good realistic ones out there. I lucked out when I sold my house six months ago — my agent knew exactly the price that it would *sell* at, not sit. I think it helps to have an honest conversation about price discovery and your intentions with your agent. I was very clear with my agent — I thought it was another bubble and I wanted to *exit* the market, not sit around for months. Amazingly, she actually agreed with me that it was another bubble and the time to exit was now. She had a pretty good gauge on the market too — when we priced it at her number, it sold. She also lamented about a few other houses she was representing, where the sellers were totally unrealistic about their prices — overriding her suggestions, and those houses were just sitting on the market with very little interest.
I think there are some good agents out there, but like anything, they are few and far between, but they do exist.
One one hand, realtors inherently want prices to be as high as possible because they get a bigger paycheck. On the other hand, if the they price it too high — they don’t get paid at all.
I think the agents who survive the ups and downs of the market, over the long term and especially in declining markets — are the rarer ones who realize it’s better to be realistic and actually *close deals*, instead of over-pricing it and/or allowing their sellers to hang on to some fantasy number — nobody gets paid in that scenario. If you’re an agent who isn’t closing deals (for whatever reason), I suspect you eventually move on to a different career path.
I’ve used three realtors, and all of them were solid professionals. But they were the exception, not the rule.
The trick is actually interviewing realtors. Ask them about conflict issues and see how they respond.
“Will you represent both sides of a transaction?”
No. (good answer)
Yes…because, because, because (bad answer)
“How do you act if you are representing two buyers that want to buy the same house.”
I never represent two families looking for the same thing (good answer)
Yes, I make sure to address the conflict by blah, blah, blah (bad answer)
From Census.gov:
Median household income (in 2015 dollars), 2011-2015:
Pinellas Co, FL $45,819
San Diego Co, CA $64,309
Median value of owner-occupied housing units, 2011-2015
Pinellas Co, FL $150,200
San Diego Co, CA $429,600
San Diego’s ratio of housing to income is 6.68x
Pinellas’ ratio of housing to income is 3.28x
San Diego’s ratio of housing to income is 6.68x or a 234% premium over historical resale and 290% premium over construction cost(lot, labor, materials and profit)
Pinellas’ ratio of housing to income is 3.28x or a 64% premium over historical resale and a 36% premium over construction cost(lot, labor, materials and profit)
Grossly overpriced in a fraud driven environment in both locations.
That’s San Diego for you. Flyover wages and coastal prices. It’s always been that way. San Diegans just grin and bear it, telling themselves that somehow it’s worth it. I decided that it wasn’t and I left.
Well not really. Not at all. Take a look at historic prices and you’ll see they detached from wages around 1997.
Now…. Do you really believe wages will magically triple or quadruple to meet grossly inflated prices?
Of course not.
Housing prices will continue falling to dramatically lower and more affordable levels, meeting wages right where they are.
It was expensive before ‘97. Not the Batsh!t crazy expensive it is now, but it was expensive. Around ‘94 prices cratered, and for a brief few years it was almost reasonable, though still much pricier than flyover. And wages were garbage, flyover wages, not Silicon Valley wages or even LA wages. People joked that the weather was part of your compensation, “Sunshine Dollars” they called it. If you complained people would tell you that it was worth it and if you disagreed then maybe you should move somewhere else.
The real estate sales model is extremely deceptive, with one agent purportedly representing the buyer, but whose interests are actually aligned with the sellers (i.e. both make more money the higher the price of the house).
Yeah - the whole “buyer’s agent” thing seems like a scam, when both realtors have a vested interest in selling you a house at the highest price point they think you can bear.
I agree, having a “buyer’s realtor” is a bad idea. Another poster recommended to bypass that entirely and deal directly with the selling agent — let them have the entire commission, and they may be more willing to wheel+deal on things. I would consider doing that in the future if I ever buy a house again, but in addition I would look to hire my own real estate *attorney* to represent my interests, to review all the contract docs to make sure no funny stuff was going on, etc. Someone with deep knowledge but not tied to the sales price of the house.
“Yeah - the whole “buyer’s agent” thing seems like a scam, when both realtors have a vested interest in selling you a house at the highest price point they think you can bear.”
It’s even worse when Phoney and Fraudie are pimping federally-guaranteed subprime loans to entice buyers into purchasing homes they can’t afford.
“Price slowdown for California!”
Like rents on office space? Stumbled on this the other day, from 42floors.com:
“Most listings are in the $50’s per square foot per year. The San Francisco region is going through a decrease in rates. In the last 3 months, the median rate fell $18 per sqft per year. That’s a 24% decline in rents.”
‘Bad news for home sellers: Price slowdown for California!’
That’s music to my eyes! Sounds like long elusive affordability is finally on the way for California home buyers.
Sounds like investors better dump those overpriced dumps they bought fast, or get priced in forever!
More likely insane regulations and taxes in LA made building “normal” rental properties uneconomical…
“The average home in South Tampa sells for around $400,000.”
And if you ever went there, you would seriously wonder why. “South Tampa” is the old guard, old money part of Tampa. Don’t get me wrong, it has a sort of funky charm. Nice landscaping, old live oaks and palm trees and hibiscus. Some gracious older homes with a mix of Southern Living and Mediterranean architecture. If you are a doctor, lawyer or financier and you work in downtown Tampa, or your fortunes are tied to Tampa in some way, that’s where you want to be.
Otherwise, South Tampa is basically a sand spit hanging down into the bay, water on both sides. It does have traditional type neighborhoods with sidewalks. One of those neighborhoods is called “Beach Park”. Don’t be fooled. There’s a park, yes, but not really what you’d call a “beach”. You can’t swim in Tampa Bay, not if you want to stay healthy. Water, water everywhere, but not a drop to take a dip in. MacDill Airforce Base is south of South Tampa. I personally don’t care for the proximity. And South Tampa floods like the dickens.
So I really don’t understand why someone moving to Tampa wants to live there…oh, wait, here it is: “Plant High School District! Plant High School District!”. Lol, that’s what you see in every. single. ad. for a South Tampa home. It’s code for “safe, mostly white, upper crust high school (as upper crust as it gets in Tampa). no gangbangers here (unless they’re making a quick visit to deliver something to a student). Perfect for your precious snow flakes.”
snake charmer may have some things to add to this to give it balance. He is less cynical than I am and understands South Tampa better than I do. I prefer the Carrollwood area.
Palmy - are you over in Pinellas towards the beach now?
I lived in Pinellas County in the ’90’s and what struck me then about South Tampa was how quickly the area would change from block to block.
I imagine the entire metro area has changed quite bit since I moved in 2002.
Hey, Bubba (and by the way, a Merry Christmas to you and yours) I’m in South Hillsborough County, the Ruskin/Apollo Beach area. Never lived in Pinellas, although I’ve visited many times in the past. Very congested, though, even back in the 1990s. I don’t even like to go there any more. But you know how Tampa Bay is, really poorly laid out and it can take up to two hours to get from one extreme point to another, depending on traffic. Where’d you move to?
Merry Christmas to you and yours as well. I’m now in Charlotte.
Winters can get cold, but not nearly as cold and snowy as New York. It snows about once or twice a winter, but quickly melts.
Summers get hot, but are not as long or as intense as a Florida summer. There’s a much lower threat of disruption by hurricanes as it’s about 150 - 200 miles to the Atlantic.
Traffic is getting worse as the population grows, but all-in-all it’s a decent place to be.
Maybe it was Muggy who moved to Pinellas by the beaches.
Yes, and I don’t think we’ve heard from Muggy since he purchased a house, lol. I hope he’s OK and that the house didn’t eat him.
“Finding a home will cost more in popular areas like South Tampa, but she suggests people wanting to move there to consider other options, like purchasing an apartment instead. ”
How do you purchase an “apartment”? Wouldn’t it be a condo? Or a co-op?
Couple rewrites ‘Baby It’s Cold Outside’ to emphasize importance of consent
By Alexandra King, CNN
Updated 9:37 PM ET, Fri December 2, 2016
CNN)A couple from Minnesota has re-imagined the classic Christmas song “Baby It’s Cold Outside” for a 21st-century audience, changing the song’s lyrics to emphasize the importance of consent.
Singer-songwriters Lydia Liza and Josiah Lemanski, both from Minneapolis, said they were inspired to rework the song after bonding over a mutual dislike of the original’s lyrics,
Here’s another one for you to work on Lydia.
Joe Tex - I Gotcha
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXoaupox2IA
Date rate was good enough for my gramma, and it’s good enough for you, my dear!
“Date rate was good enough for my gramma, and it’s good enough for you, my dear!”
‘Baby It’s Cold Outside’?
Better stay in that safe space Russ.
I got a laugh out of this article. It highlights modern economic thinking. The article compares the economic situations of Greece and Germany, and laments the large export surpluses of Germany and large export deficits of Greece:
~~~~~~~
“ON AUGUST 24th Germans received news to warm any Teutonic heart. Figures revealed a larger-than-expected budget surplus in the first half of 2016, and put Germany on track for its third year in a row in the black. To many such excess seems harmless enough—admirable even. Were Greece half as fiscally responsible as Germany, it might not be facing its eighth year of economic contraction in a decade. Yet German saving and Greek suffering are two sides of the same coin. Seemingly prudent budgeting in economies like Germany’s produce dangerous strains globally. The pressure may yet be the undoing of the euro area.”
~~~~~~
The solution of course is to have Greece become more like Germany: more organized, harder-working, building difficult, high value items like machine tools and complex hardware and software products. But that’s probably impossible. It’s like saying the solution to Haiti’s problems is that it should be more like Switzerland.
The solution The Economist recommends? See below:
~~~~~~
Theoretically, this black hole can be dodged. Surplus economies like Germany just need to borrow more. Bigger budget deficits would boost global demand and reduce current-account imbalances. But Germans favour frugal budgeting. Just as important, Germany’s government, which is seen as an unforgiving taskmaster across the euro-area periphery, would prefer not to be accused of practising something different from what it preaches. And even a change of heart in Germany, helpful though that would be to the euro-area economy, would not solve everything. Imbalances are a global problem which cannot be fixed by any one country.
~~~~~~
This solution - “just borrow more” - completely ignores the root causes of the problems. It’s pure monetarism - manipulation of the money supply to boost economic growth.
“When the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.”
a fool and his money are soon parted!
Dont let wall street offload their sh@t onto you again!
FOMO is their common tool.
Bluffton, SC Housing Prices Crater 7% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/bluffton-sc-29910/home-values/
So long as the stock market keeps going up, why does it matter whether Mr. Market is “right” or “wrong” on the Trump economy?
Opinion: 3 things the stock market is getting wrong about the Trump economy
Published: Dec 24, 2016 11:55 a.m. ET
Investors are ignoring big uncertainties that surround the incoming administration
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up about 9% since Donald Trump’s election.
By Rex Nutting
Columnist
The stock market has been going gangbusters on the assumption that the Trump economy will be good for corporations and their investors.
There will be more fiscal stimulus, lower taxes, more federal spending on bombs and bridges, fewer regulations, more corporate cash repatriated from overseas bank accounts, more growth, and most importantly more profits.
It’s all good!
The market, as usual, has kept the rally going by ignoring the possibility that something might go wrong.
Such as?
I see three sources of uncertainty that the market is ignoring: 1) Donald Trump’s policies may not stimulate growth as much as many investors assume. 2) The president-elect’s policies are unsettled, incoherent or contradictory, leaving uncertainty about whether the net impact will be positive or negative. 3) And some of Trump’s policies may actually retard growth.
…
divine.messiah.trump
Remember everyone said he would be awful for the stock market?
4) The consequences of the biggest credit bubble in history are baked in.
5) Hitler.
Foaming the runway for trump are we?
The reckoning is still at hand. Eight years of slow grinding recession and ballooning debt haven’t changed things for the better. It will come with claws to strip the rot, not foam.
Don’t forget that Hitler was in charge when VW was established. Can’t claim he was unequivocally bad for the German economy…
Looking back at the presidential election, the worst part is that we ended up with a choice between two New Yorkers. I voted for someone else.
Fear - New York’s Alright If You Like Saxaphones
Lyrics
New York’s alright, New York’s alright
New York’s alright if you like saxophones
New York’s alright if you wanna get pushed in front of the subway
New York’s alright if you like tebirculosis
New York’s alright if you like art and jazz
New York’s alright if you’re a homosexual
New york’s alright, New York’s alright
New York’s alright if you like saxophones
New York’s alright if you like drunks in your doorway
New York’s alright if you wanna freeze to death
New York’s alright if you wanna get mugged or murdered
New York’s alright if you like saxophones
New York’s alright, New York’s alright
New York’s alright if you like saxophones
Written by Ving • Copyright © BMG Rights Management US, LLC
Lee Ving was the man. Saw FEAR play back in the day, they did 2 encores and people were still screaming for more. He said “thats it, we played every song we know, get the fk out of here!”
Lets have a war is a classic song as well. Back in the day John Belushi got them to play on Saturday night live, touching off a riot iirc.
And a touching ode to Christmas:
https://youtu.be/5Zgol2NQhlM
Back stocks perky?
Car loans already in de free Ault and real to follow
Bank stocks
Default
Yikes
money n the bank buying a home in CA.
A nice hope for humanity story from AP about “Uncle Tim”
“To untold numbers of children, he’s simply Uncle Tim.
Nearly 3,300 babies across the country who otherwise might have been abandoned and perhaps died have found homes in the past 17 years, thanks in part to the efforts of Tim Jaccard, a retired New York police ambulance medic who grew weary of responding to calls of dead infants abandoned in trash cans and alleys.”
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SAFE_HAVEN_BABIES?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-12-24-11-43-44
This time of year, I think of the old fairy tale “The Little Match Girl” by Hans Christian Andersen, which has made me tear up ever since I wuz a pup.
The Russian Game is a chess strategy developed in the mid-19th Century by Alexander Petrov, a grand master from St. Petersburg. Petrov’s thinking about chess was deeply influenced by Napoleon’s invasion of Russia. Essentially, Petrov viewed chess as a kind of military exercise and his Russian Game was a defensive plan to protect the “homeland” of the chessboard from attack by an overwhelming imperial force through deception, misdirection and infiltration.
Petrov’s Defense, as the Russian Game is also known, is a devious scheme of counterpunching, where the movements of your opposition are mirrored, creating the illusion that your opponent’s pieces are fighting themselves, until a line of counter-attack opens with devastating consequences. When played by a master, the Russian Game is meant to confuse, disorient and induce a feeling of paranoia in the invading force of pawns, rooks and knights.
Has Vladimir Putin deployed a Petrov Defense operation against the American electoral system? Has he mirrored decades of CIA and State Department-sponsored meddling in elections in eastern Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America by unleashing a cyber-hack on the Democratic National Committee? Did the Russians hack the voting machines themselves, the way American operations once stuffed ballot boxes? Or is it all one big psy-op, an elaborate con out of a LeCarré novel, meant to make the American political and intelligence establishment re-enact the self-consumming witch-hunts of the McCarthy era?
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/12/23/roaming-charges-the-russian-game/
The left just can’t accept that they lost.
If it had gone the other way, and the lizard queen had won the electoral collage with a minority of votes, the trumplings would have lost their freaking minds, and you know it.
We have entered the era of entitled idiocy, and there’s no going back.
‘and you know it’
We didn’t even expect to win, so you’re full of crap. Still a wee bit angry? Please make and post a video of you crawling on the ground, screaming “why Hillary, WHY?”
I just remembered: weren’t you the guy who got pissed off if anyone disagreed with your theory that Trump was only there to throw the election to Screech? If so, also make a video of yourself apologizing profusely for your ass-hattery and then eat steaming pies of crow.
They hate us cuz they ain’ us.
I once sat next to Sen. Schumer in first-class. I find his politics reprehensible, but kept those views to myself and treated him with the same courtesy I would extend to any other passenger. Regardless of where you are on the political spectrum, it is common decency not to harass or annoy elected or appointed officials who are out in public because you oppose their positions or dislike them personally. However, I’m pretty sure the special snowflakes and a good many Hillary supporters feel they have a license to act like that creep who harrassed Ivanka Trump while she was flying coach with her three young kids.
“…who harrassed Ivanka Trump while she was flying coach with her three young kids.”
Harassing a woman with her children won’t get sympathy from anyone.
Isn’t disrupting a flight through antics like that a federal offense? And the guy who did it was an attorney?
I heard a joke the other day that made laugh:
“The Democrats haven’t been this mad since the Republicans freed their slaves.”
Some people think they are in a reality they can make up as they go. It’s not working out for them at the moment.
And it never has. Merry Christmas BTW.
A very Merry Christmas to you, and all who would do so.
If it had gone the other way, and the lizard queen had won the electoral collage with a minority of votes, the trumplings would have lost their freaking minds, and you know it.
A good many “Trumplings” were not fond of Obama, expecially after his first term, but we nonetheless went about our lives and accepted that he was president without posting caterwauling videos of ourselves on YouTube or going to “Not My President!” marches/riots.
I’ll be honest, I did have a wee bit of a meltdown earlier on election night, when it looked like it was going for Hillary. I was on the phone with a family member cursing up a blue streak.
However, I managed to refrain from filming myself and posting it to youtube.
Not me. I lived through Reagan twice, Bush, Clinton twice, Bush twice, Obama twice. I could have made it through another one.
“I could have made it through another one.”
Maybe, but I don’t think the country would have made it through a Hillary presidency, I honestly don’t. I can’t say what would have happened, exactly, but I did think there was a very real possibility of WW3. At the very least, she looked to be gunning to be the Merkel of the US.
The problem for the Globalists is that Russia doesn’t want to be part of it. Yes, she and “they” could have made a mess of it, and I kind of think “they” will still try.
Still, another term for these global elites and the backlash from the people would be stronger even, not so much “oh Gosh we won the election!”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTFABcpQODM
“I could have made it through another one.”
I guess but I would’ve had to convince people like this guy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBxMPqxJGqI
At the very least, she looked to be gunning to be the Merkel of the US.
I thought so, too. They’re all under the same marching orders and - they all are truly out of their minds.
Angela Merkel Pool Dance
“Has he mirrored decades of CIA and State Department-sponsored meddling in elections in eastern Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America by unleashing a cyber-hack on the Democratic National Committee?”
… and Obama thought we were above this chit.
massive.home equity.withdrawal
Hehe… go shopping, buy something.
How bout them falling housing prices!
Coral Gables, FL Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/coral-gables-fl/home-values/
A few months old of an article, but this is the mansion where Obama + family are going to rent for a couple years after he leaves office. Just a couple miles away from the White House, with zillow rent estimate for $22,000/month.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/25/politics/obama-kalorama-washington-dc-leases-house/
Supposedly he’s already had a house in Chicago and another in Hawaii, but he also bought a mansion in California, and a 2nd one in Hawaii, the ole Magnum Pi house.
http://www.dailywire.com/news/11024/obama-purchases-california-mansion-go-along-his-chase-stephens
So that’s at least 4 houses he owns, and one DC mansion he’s renting. Life is good when you’re the President. Those speaking fees, or something.
Where did he get the money for all that?
From Penny Pritzker (of the Chicago Pritzkers) is what I heard. On line rumor, but believable. As I recall, it for only one crib in Hawaii, though.
“Speaking fees”.
Aren’t they all exempted from insider trading laws? What I’d do is use those $100K/pop speaking fees as my insider-trading investment money. After 8 years, you could walk away a billionaire.
He’s rumored to have purchased a home in the Asheville, NC area as well.
It’s a shame. A sorry sorry shame, and a disgrace.
Well, we hope for great things in the year ahead, and to put some of the bucket of corruption behind us.
‘He’s rumored to have purchased a home in the Asheville, NC area as well.’
Asheville was nice and sleepy 20 odd years ago. Now everybody wants to live there.
“…and one DC mansion he’s renting.”
Awful lot of white in that crib.
Internet says he doesn’t own the Magnum PI house, a friend of his does.
Doug Casey comments today on Real Estate, gold, stocks and where he thinks the economy is headed:
sorry, there’s no link.
========
So, Trump has won the election. Of course anything can happen between now and his presumed inauguration on January 20. The Swamp Creatures tried to cause a recount in so-called Purple States that would have changed the number of electors in Hillary’s favor. They tried other ways to somehow influence Trump electors to vote for Hillary. None of this would have been an issue if Baby Bush II, Jeb, had been the Republican nominee, as was supposed to have happened. It all just shows what a transparent (a word these people love to use) fraud “democracy” has become.
Let the hoi polloi cast a meaningless vote, so they have the illusion of being in control. Instead of seeing themselves as subjects, they’ll think they’re “we the people,” who actually have some say in what happens. That way they’ll pay their taxes willingly, enthusiastically sign on to aggressive wars on the other side of the world against people they know nothing about, and generally do as they’re told. Because it’s supposed to be patriotic. “Democracy” is a much more effective scam for controlling the plebs than kingship or dictatorship.
That said, the Establishment, the Deep State, was genuinely shocked and appalled by Trump’s victory. As Baby Bush the First would have said, they misunderestimated how angry the average voter was. That’s because the Coastal Democratic Elite are totally out of touch with the common man. But they needn’t fret too much. They’ll be re-installed, with a vengeance, in four years.
What could change things? A serious war, much bigger than the sport wars the US is currently engaged in, is the biggest danger. That’s much less likely with Trump than Hillary, but these things have a life of their own. My guess for the next president is either a left-wing general (because Americans love and trust their military), or a left-wing populist, like Elizabeth Warren.
But that’s crystal balling at this point. Let’s proceed on the assumption Trump is actually going to be the president for at least the next four years. Although problematical, he’s a vast improvement over Hillary. What will it mean for the US and the world? More importantly, what will it mean for your personal finances and freedom? Let’s look at the possibilities.
Bonds—With bonds, we’re at the peak of the biggest financial bubble in world history. This is a very big deal.
Interest rates move in very long cycles. They went up from the mid-1940s to the early ’80s, when long-term government bonds peaked at close to 16%, and T-Bills at over 16%. I thought they hit bottom years ago, but the cycle overshot.
My guess is that they’re headed up in earnest now. And Trump, as someone who understands business (even though he doesn’t understand economics), will likely (I think…) do what he can to send them higher. Why? He understands the country needs to save, to rebuild capital. And higher rates will encourage saving and discourage debt.
The risk is that, with all the debt that’s been put on in the last decade, debtors will be hard-pressed to service it. That includes the USG with $20 trillion of on-balance-sheet debt, and a lot more in the way of off-balance-sheet debt, guarantees, and contingent liabilities. Much of it will be activated if higher rates cause a lot of defaults.
What should you do? Sell all your bonds.
Real Estate—Property, at least in the English-speaking world, floats on a sea of debt. Interest rates go up, real estate prices go down. The economy goes down, so do property prices. Add to that the aging US population, which isn’t good for property; as people age, they downsize. Add to that the fact we’re in another real estate bubble, similar to what we saw in the mid-oughts. After bonds, property is likely the worst place to be. In fact, I’ll go so far as to say the great post–World War II property boom is at an end—but that’s a subject for another time. There’s not much that Trump can do to fix this.
What should you do? Lighten up on property. Make sure any mortgages you keep are at fixed rates.
Stocks—If Trump only follows through with his promise to cut taxes, and eliminate two old regulations for every new one, it would be wonderful for the economy. But the economy and the stock market are two different things; they only correlate over the long run. I suppose he’ll follow through with his promise to build lots of new infrastructure. Government deficits will soar, and only the Fed will be on hand to buy all that new debt.
Infrastructure companies will get a fat slug of the newly printed money. But I find it hard to get enthusiastic for the stock market. In terms of dividends, P/E ratios, or book value, it’s already at one of the highest levels ever. Bear in mind that well-selected stocks can still go up, even if the market as a whole goes down.
That said, I feel more comfortable with shorts than longs at this point.
Gold and Commodities—Frankly, where do you put your money when almost everything is overpriced? Commodities are coming out of a five-year-long bear market. They’re about the only thing that’s cheap. That’s true relative to their cost of production (farmers, ranchers, and miners are breaking even, at best, all over the world). And it’s true relative to their history (they’re down 50% from the peak of 2011).
In other words, commodities are a much safer place for your capital than stocks, bonds, or real estate (excepting agricultural property) for the foreseeable future. The problem is that it’s hard to hold a carload of wheat or ten tonnes of sugar.
Remember that gold and other commodities aren’t “investments.” An investment is something that acts to create new wealth. They’re simply assets. Sometimes they can be excellent speculations. Gold, however, is money [no it isn't, gold is primarily a metal by weight currency], and will remain so long after the US destroys its currency [true, gold will indeed outlast EVERY other currency].
I recommend, therefore, that you accumulate gold and silver instead of plunging into conventional investments.
A final thought. It’s usually a mistake to count on any head of state to make things in a country better. It can certainly happen—as with Erhard in Germany after WW2, Pinochet in Chile, Thatcher in Britain, or even Reagan in the US. Maybe it will be true of Trump. He’s got a much stronger personality than Reagan, for openers. But the bigger and older a State gets, the harder it is to change. It’s comparable to trying to stop a fully loaded supertanker.
Well said. The globalist agenda will move forward, albeit maybe slightly more slowly under Trump than the alternative.
I have become fully convinced that the massive debts being racked up worldwide are by design and will never be repaid - the path to a single global currency is to create such a massive financial mess that only a new global banking system is big enough to solve.
Merry Christmas!
Merry Christmas, HBBers!
Bony M - Mary’s Boy Child/Oh My Lord
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxm1FlLSfe4
Christmas With This Girl
The Catholic Girls
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2tfQ4cbfEE
Lol, I just checked out the “lively little blog” that Christopher Fountain has for Greenwich, CT real estate. One of his readers sent him the following:
“short post-election poem
The election is over, the talking is done;
Your party lost, my party won.
So let us be friends, let arguments pass,
I’ll hug my elephant, you kiss your ass.”
Remember the Hollywood guys who tried to get the electors to change their votes?
Well, they have a new video, a special message for Donald Trump:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJ_8e_x0rb8
Where’s our citydata pukes tonite….. taking a break?
How about that global warming in Flagstaff? I remember that part of I-40 as being a snow alley.
I went to NAU (Flagstaff) in the late 80s and early 90s. There was some snow at times but only a foot or two max. Some years had more snow vs other years. Are you a prognosticator of Manbearpig theory?