December 26, 2016

All The Signs Of A Housing Bubble Were Prevalent

A report from the National Post in Canada. “Since housing supply was a challenge in Fort McMurray long before the fires destroyed more than 2,400 buildings in what had been an overpopulated city, and since thousands returned after the fire to find their homes damaged beyond repair, you would expect housing to still be an urgent concern in the Alberta oil-sands capital. But the city was strangely prepared for an emergency like this after solving that 20-year-long housing crunch, and everyone in Fort McMurray is celebrating the holidays this year with a roof over their head.”

“By 2014 with the oil industry beginning to suffer, local urban development plans were put on hold. In the months before the fire, the downturn in oil prices left Fort McMurray with a new problem: the city actually had too much housing. ‘With the economic downturn, you have areas where houses are just sitting empty,’ says Tim Gensey senior public affairs adviser of the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp. ‘Homes that were selling for $800,000 dropped to $650,000.’”

The Australian. “In Lamington, a country area of Western Australia covering mining towns such as Kalgoorlie, 2600 households are suffering ‘mortgage stress.’ The pain is more severe in Harris­town in Queensland, about 130km west of Brisbane, where more than 4500 households are in difficulty. Research covering the top 20 postcodes with the greatest mortgage stress features many country areas but Melbourne’s Essendon and Preston each have around 2500 households in difficulty, as does western Sydney’s Bossley Park.”

“Despite record low interest rates and unemployment below 6 per cent, Standard & Poor’s said arrears ticked higher in October and the proportion of ‘non-conforming’ borrowers behind on payments was near record levels. Former Commonwealth Bank chief David Murray this month said all the signs of a housing ‘bubble’ were prevalent, such as ‘people’s behaviour … and ­defensiveness about any correction.’ Mr Murray told Sky Business that investors owning multiple properties that were cross-collateralised who could become forced sellers were the ‘risk to the system.’”

The Borneo Post on Malaysia. “In an economic climate as testy as Malaysia’s now, it comes as no surprise that less and less homeowners are buying properties. According to PropertyGuru Malaysia country manager Sheldon Fernandez, the residential property market to date has seen a decline in transaction volumes in tandem with the market slowdown. ‘It is typically a buyers’ market as buyers have more choices now, taking their time to find the best deals,’ Fernandez observed. ‘Horror stories on buying first home properties occur because many are not aware of the steps one should take or check before purchasing a home.’”

“Second-hand units are common in the scene, but as Daniel Hii Jun Chung discovered, things can go wrong just as easily. ‘My first home was a second-hand unit. The owner was always away during the daytime so I had to view the home at nights. This was one of the biggest mistakes I ever made,’ he explained. ‘At night, any stain — be it water marks or uneven paint colouring and wall tiles expansion — are very hard to notice. Furthermore, with artificial lighting, there are shadows everywhere so many imperfections were hidden.’”

From Frontier Myanmar. “It is not unusual to hear the word ‘weak’ used in connection with the high end of the real estate market in Myanmar. The market has been squeezed since 2014 and the consensus is that sales are unlikely to improve anytime soon. If realtors are saying the general condition of the real estate market is not good, you can be sure that the high-end situation is grim. That’s certainly reflected in the Colliers figures, showing that luxury and high-end units – with an average contract price of US$784,000 and $535,000, respectively – account for 62 percent of total pre-sales stock.”

“‘The market right now is focusing on the high-end; I don’t think that’s the market,’ said Mr Melvyn Pun, chief executive of Yoma Strategic Holdings, a big player in the real estate sector. ‘Very few people can afford them and that’s not the general direction of the country,’ he told journalists. ‘Now the prices are higher than Malaysia, even Thailand. We need real innovation, real thinking to bring prices down.’”

The Diplomat on South Korea. “A notable beneficiary of corporate lending for the last three decades has been the Korean real estate market. A popular outlet for capital accrued in better times, Korea’s property market has witnessed the construction of hundreds of new apartment complexes, resorts, and luxury hotels. Companies like Lotte, SKT, and Hyundai, which traditionally had nothing to do with real estate, invested heavily in new property. This investment has continued in 2015 at a record pace, despite the fact there has been a serious housing glut in recent years with tens of thousands of apartment units remaining empty, prompting concerns about the inevitability of a substantial property bubble.”

“In the last decade, average Koreans have been engaged in what can only be described as a borrowing binge. At the start of 2015, South Korea was one of only seven countries named by the McKinsey consulting firm to have unsustainable household debt. These reports, unfortunately, have fallen on deaf ears as Korea’s household debt has continued to balloon. When watching the current political scandals, one can only imagine how much incompetence and corruption might have been complicit in creating the various economic dangers outlined above. Taken together, the informed observer can only face the future with trepidation as it looks like a long series of dominoes have already been lined up, just waiting to fall.”




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101 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-26 06:15:29

‘Former Commonwealth Bank chief David Murray this month said all the signs of a housing ‘bubble’ were prevalent, such as ‘people’s behaviour … and ­defensiveness about any correction.’ Mr Murray told Sky Business that investors owning multiple properties that were cross-collateralised who could become forced sellers were the ‘risk to the system.’

Gutsy calls like that are why you make the big bucks David. That ‘defensiveness’ bit is funny. You could call it denial. The 800k Canadian peso houses coming down to 600k. Who’ll give me 500k?

Comment by taxpayer
2016-12-26 08:12:26

that call was confirmed when oil fell bellow $65
what else does cana-dah have

socialists?

Comment by Ben Jones
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-26 09:13:19
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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-26 09:33:42

Here’s a foreclosed single-wide for Natty Ice Dude:

http://www.calgary-realestate-sales.com/listing/strathmore/c4087115-827-briarwood-rd

This little gem has fresh plywood boarding. If you flip through the photos you’ll see how people leave these houses:

http://www.calgary-realestate-sales.com/listing/calgary/ogden/c4089349-6046-18-st-se

Fixer upper:

http://www.calgary-realestate-sales.com/listing/linden/c4090674-419-1-st-nw

It’s strange that they don’t do a trash out before photos. This one comes with two abandoned vehicles:

http://www.calgary-realestate-sales.com/listing/beiseker/c4086524-422-8-st

 
Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-26 09:40:05

Poets still trying to figure out how to change his noisy muffler bearings.

 
Comment by rms
2016-12-26 10:24:29

“If you flip through the photos you’ll see how people leave these houses:”

LOL… progressive beneficiaries.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-26 11:22:08

One thing I noticed over the years: the space above the fridge - they almost always leave that stuff in there. It’s like that’s where people put things that they don’t really want but just can’t quite throw it away. Garages too. They’ll go through and pick some stuff out to take, but I swear most garages had half to 90% of the crap they accumulated left behind.

 
Comment by SW
2016-12-26 13:11:33

You done much flipping Ben?

 
Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-26 15:04:55

Remember my friend…. A house is a rapidly depreciating asset that cost you money every day you own it.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-26 15:12:52

No, I never have. Worked on a lot of foreclosures though, hundreds of them.

 
 
Comment by alphonso bedoya
2016-12-26 10:15:55
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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 09:37:38

I’m going to watch “The Big Short” again on Netflix, since 2008 redux seems just around the corner.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2016-12-27 02:12:15

Ha, just did so myself recently.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-26 06:18:21

‘The owner was always away during the daytime so I had to view the home at nights. This was one of the biggest mistakes I ever made,’ he explained. ‘At night, any stain — be it water marks or uneven paint colouring and wall tiles expansion — are very hard to notice’

You must have missed that episode on Flipping Malaysia. Is the whole planet speculating in housing these days?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 08:19:50

I hope he did a better due dilligence on his wife.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 09:26:49

I hope he checked out his fiance more thoroughly.

Comment by oxide
2016-12-26 10:10:01

Maybe he only viewed her at nights. :shock:

Comment by phony scandals
2016-12-26 11:52:43

“Maybe he only viewed her at nights.”

Beware bad lighting, you may meet a “Two Face” and if you do don’t take the tunnel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFeUrC2gR30

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Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-26 09:47:27

Is the whole planet speculating in housing these days?

$500K apartments in Myanmar, where the minimum wage is $2.80 a day.

Not only is everyone else speculating, their level of speculation makes our own bubble look tepid by comparison.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 10:03:38

Asians have a weakness for gambling.

Comment by jerzdebil
2016-12-26 10:35:13

Raycis! and true, although I think its probably some percentage that are into it and the rest just go along with the herd as asian culture seems to value conformity to a degree that we in the west cant understand.

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Comment by rms
2016-12-26 12:50:01

“Asians have a weakness for gambling.”

And busty white insolent women who make ‘em feel inferior. :)

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Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-26 10:14:58

The US bubble is far wider and deeper considering the number of active participants (40 million underwater loan owners) and the total dollar volume involved.

 
Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2016-12-26 11:30:02

It’s truly remarkable how distorted shelter prices have become the world over.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-26 12:22:40

Indeed, billions outside our borders are playing the game, with price to income ratios that dawrf the ones here in the US. The ratio in Myanmar is close to 100. Imagine if Americans were paying 100x their annual incomes. People with 50K incomes would be buying $5 million houses. I can’t even conceive how they are doing this in those 3rd world countries.

It’s really scary when one thinks about how overleveraged and in debt the rest of the world is. This is, of course, why central banks around the globe have been playing the ZIRP game. And they act oh so responsible when they raise rate a quarter of a point.

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Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-26 12:35:48

“The ratio in Myanmar is close to 100.”

Incorrect. The current ratio is 6x in Mayanmar which is far less than the US.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by azdude
2016-12-26 06:33:20

houses.r.atms

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-26 06:37:14

‘Bond issuance in December by Chinese companies and banks is 142 billion yuan ($20.4 billion) less than the amount of notes they must repay this month, data combined by Bloomberg show. That’s set for the biggest monthly gap on record. As borrowing costs soar, firms have canceled or postponed at least 117.5 billion yuan of bonds, up from 29.7 billion yuan in November. That’s dragged total issuance down to 266 billion yuan, less than a third of November.’

“If liquidity remains so tight, financing costs for the whole real economy will be very high, which is unsustainable,” said Wang Shen, a Shenzhen-based fund manager.’

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 07:52:45

“In the last decade, average Koreans have been engaged in what can only be described as a borrowing binge. At the start of 2015, South Korea was one of only seven countries named by the McKinsey consulting firm to have unsustainable household debt.

So much for the confucion virtues and moral rectitude that made Asians among the highest savers on the planet.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-26 09:50:15

Gangnam Style!

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 07:55:30

The job market is still terrible, despite what the Fed and our Soviet-style BLS statistics would have you believe. 95.4 million Americans “out of the work force” yet an unemployment rate of 4.9%? Riiight….

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/12/26/census-data-shows-job-market-still-terrible-but-numbers-get-hushed-up/

Comment by oxide
2016-12-26 10:31:28

Bloomibergi has a couple of very good articles on unemployment stats:

This article explains how the unemployment rate could be anything fro 4.5% to 42%, depending on how you count:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-12/so-you-say-the-unemployment-rate-is-fictitious

This article goes expands from the last one to count more marginal workers:

“The unemployment rate is down to 4.6 percent, which sounds pretty good. But the unemployment rate doesn’t count people who’ve given up looking for jobs, which is why the employment-to-population ratio, especially the “prime-age” ratio for those 25 through 54, may be a better measure of the health of the labor market. [22% unemployment in 2016.]

Part time employees who want to work full time: 3.9% of workforce…

…The percentage of workers engaged in alternative work arrangements — defined as temporary help agency workers, on-call workers, contract workers, and independent contractors or freelancers — rose from 10.1 percent in February 2005 to 15.8 percent in late 2015.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-16/jobs-aren-t-what-they-used-to-be

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-12-26 14:19:17

exactly plus the added government benefit, since so few are actually contributing to SS or in much smaller amounts the payout down the road is far less then they anticipate.

my brothers are sort of working yet my brothers wife is working like 2 jobs since someone quit and they didn’t replace her.

 
 
 
Comment by Cynic
2016-12-26 07:59:54

‘Now the prices are higher than Malaysia, even Thailand. We need real innovation, real thinking to bring prices down.’

A global central-banking cartel inspired borrowing binge drives an international housing bubble to insane proportions in cities from Calgary to Kalgoorlie. But now wherever the Ponzi scheme is simultaneously unraveling is a completely isolated situation from anywhere else it is unraveling?

This time it’s different everywhere.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 08:49:58

Well said.

 
Comment by goedeck
2016-12-26 11:19:55

Calgary to Kalgoorlie.

That’s a good one.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2016-12-26 15:40:01

Flin Flon, Manitoba to Tucson, Arizona
South Miami to Tucumcari
Boston to Austin

Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2016-12-26 16:38:39

From San Diego to Tierra del Fuego
Omaha to Verona
NYC to Nairobi…

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 17:51:19

From the FB anthem, “World’s Biggest Fool” (The Tractors)

From Tennessee to Tokyo
I’ve hit a new record low
I’m the biggest fool of all

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqpeKOq3eXk

 
 
 
Comment by goedeck
2016-12-26 18:28:32

From Montevideo to Monterey

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-26 09:12:17

There were some comments that mentioned how London was being overrun by Islam. I was in the UK last year, but did not visit London, except for my brief time at Heathrow, which did seem overrun with Muslims. Next year I will be going to England again, and this time I will spend time in London.

This year I visited central Europe and Germany. The difference between Budapest and Munich was striking. Guess which one had no burqas on its streets?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 09:14:20

Hungary’s leader is a nationalist, not a globalist.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-26 09:51:47

And Orban has no qualms about telling Merkel that she’s an idiot.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 08:11:38

China’s gold market looks set to be robust in 2017, especially after housing bubble FBs prove to be a cautionary tale on the schemes and scams of central bankers and central planners.

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/chinas-gold-market-opens-up-to-boost-rmb-internationalization/

Comment by mcbain!
2016-12-26 15:38:14

I think at the heart of this housing bubble is China. It was going gangbusters, consuming commodities and making stuff but the recovery from the “great recession” (I hate that term) never resulted in a recovery of the ‘murican consumer to the degree they banked on - thanks to Ozero for neutering the middle class - so they started coming up with things to keep the good times rolling. At first it was ghost cities, then I think the smartest realized the need to get their money and families out of China if possible so they bailed to Canada, Australia, and pockets of California primarily. This drove prices in those places insane, and the people that made out by selling to the Chinese moved to other places and in turn drove up prices elsewhere. China is toast, the dollar killed off emerging markets and now the piper is going to be paid.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-12-26 15:59:43

China is toast, the dollar killed off emerging markets and now the piper is going to be paid.

I think you are a bit confused about the effect of the dollar; a stronger dollar (and it is definitely rising since rates have ticked up here) makes it EASIER for China to engage in mercantilism. They want their currency to remain relatively weak relative to the dollar—or else we don’t buy their goods.

Comment by JudoCHOP!
2016-12-26 22:23:58

No, it’s more complicated than that even, because EM debt is often in dollars. Yes China likes a strong dollar but EMs hurting means more competition from them, like Vietnam, etc. bottom line, I think the China story cracked some years ago and it’s taken this long to see the effects wear off on our shores.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 08:14:36

The Butt-Hurt Brigades are mobilizing. Bring it, buttercups. Since disappointed would-be freeloaders comprise the overwhelming majority of the Hillary-Soros little-feet stampers, any surge in support for “progressive” causes is likely to be short-lived and ineffectual.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/25/progressive-donations-us-election-planned-parenthood-aclu

 
Comment by Cynic
2016-12-26 08:53:41

Bitcoin has seldom looked better. Thank you, government currency manipulators.

Dec 25, 2016 @ 08:49 PM
The Little Black Book of Billionaire Secrets
Bitcoin Investors Should Send A Thank You Note To India’s Modi And Venezuela’s Maduro
Panos Mourdoukoutas, Contributor

Bitcoin is racing towards the $1000 mark again. And the recent currency policies of India’s Modi and Venezuela’s Maduro may have something to do with it.

How? By pushing people into Bitcoins—the digital currency rally coincides with Modi’s and Maduro’s efforts to get rid of old currency notes.

Prime Minister Modi and President Maduro have very little in common — except they have pursued policies recently that replace large notes in circulation with new notes (India) or with coins (Venezuela).

For a good purpose, of course. Prime Minister Modi has been trying to fight corruption, a widespread problem in India. And President Maduro has been trying to fend off capital flight from the ailing Venezuelan economy.

While both policies have had some success in achieving their objectives, they’ve had a serious side effect, too: undermining public confidence in national currencies as a store of wealth. Why hold a currency that can be printed in unlimited amounts and which has an expiration date?

Of course, the public can hold dollars, euros, yen, and yuan, but those can be manipulated, too.

That’s not the case with Bitcoins, which cannot be manipulated by governments, and therefore, can serve as a good alternative to national currencies.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 09:13:15

I suspect Bitcoin’s parabolic rise has more to due with millions of Chinese trying frantically to get their wealth out of China and into tangible assets abroad before the PRC’s financial house of cards implodes under the weight of its own fraud and ficticious valuations.

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2016-12-26 10:40:00

Bad or questionable loans have been given another name in China. They’re called “investment receivables.” They now have no bad “loans” and two trillion dollars in “INVESTMENT RECEIVABLES.”

We’re looking at an “infinity” of debt. You can’t track, conceptualize or contain that number.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 11:01:42

There are no bad loans, only f**ked borrowers (FBs). And soon-to-be-insolvent lenders who won’t be getting their money back.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 11:06:01

Ever notice how our central planners and central bankers, and their media lapdogs, keep coining new words and phrases in their attempts to obfuscate our true economic picture? We non-sheeple call that dissimulation. [For recent graduates of our NEA indoctrination mills, here's the dictionary definition:]

dis·sim·u·la·tion
dəˌsimyəˈlāSH(ə)n/
noun
concealment of one’s thoughts, feelings, or character; pretense.
“an attempt at dissimulation”
synonyms: pretense, dissembling, deceit, dishonesty, duplicity, lying, guile, subterfuge, feigning, shamming, faking, bluff, bluffing, posturing, hypocrisy
“he was capable of great dissimulation and hypocrisy”

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Comment by rms
2016-12-26 13:06:28

“concealment of one’s thoughts, feelings, or character; pretense.”

I have a friend who clams-up when his wife is within earshot.

 
 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 09:00:27

Even given the abject stupidity of the Obama Zombies, it’s questionable whether Obama could’ve won a third term, as he maintains.

http://nypost.com/2016/12/26/obama-cried-at-send-off-says-he-could-have-been-re-elected/

Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-26 12:38:22

Agreed.

I just love how they can’t accept why they lost. They’re going to double down in the next elections. It should be a great time for the GOP, unless they totally screw the pooch.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 13:02:13

Don’t think for a moment that Trump’s victory means the Establishment GOP doesn’t need to be purged of RINOs, neocons, corporate statists, and all other sellouts.

 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-12-26 09:19:27

Downtown Bellevue, WA Housing Prices Crater 9% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/downtown-bellevue-wa/home-values/

Comment by redmondjp
2016-12-26 17:47:22

You display your ignorance with almost every post, Housing analyst.

There are no houses in downtown Bellevue.

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-26 18:09:16

Data my good friend. Stick with the data.

Beacon Hill Seattle, WA Housing Prices Crater 12% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/beacon-hill-seattle-wa/home-values/

 
 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 09:48:12

Well this is astonishing. The Atlantic, a mouthpiece of the trans-Atlantic globalist elites, is acknowledging that one of their own, Angela Merkel, is responsible for the ongoing destruction of Europe.

http://theweek.com/articles/669030/angela-merkel-destroying-europe

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2016-12-26 18:14:03
Comment by rms
2016-12-27 01:39:21

LOL… thanks!

 
 
 
Comment by azdude
2016-12-26 10:17:13

more.frickn.equity

 
Comment by Justme
2016-12-26 10:52:41

A question for the old-timers: What year of the previous housing bubble, 2001-2007/8 does 2016 correspond to? Where are we in the Fed-imposed cycle?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 11:33:19

The two bubbles are fundamentally dissimilar, IMHO, in that prior to 2008 we had some honest markets, in that fundamentals ultimately mattered. Since then we’ve had a central bank sh*t show that features rigged, broken, manipulated markets where algos account for almost all the trading volume and gimmicks that used to be illegal - like non-GAAP accounting, front-running the market based on insider information, and corporate stock buy-backs using borrowed FedBux - are now mainstays, along with the twin frauds of ZIRP and QE-to-Infinity, in creating dangerously unsustainable asset bubbles and Ponzi markets.

It will end badly, as such things always to, but the level of officially sanctioned and enabled fraud is orders of magnitude above what it was prior to 2008 - hence any “you are here” assessments from HBB old-timers are essentially spurious. No one knows how much longer these central bank scams can be maintained with created-out-of-thin-air funny money before they collapse under the weight of their own fraud and artifice.

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-26 11:39:13

It’s the same bubble 4x or more.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-26 11:57:22

Example

If it’s the same bubble, previous lows should get taken out.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 12:00:32

The Fed and central banks stepped in to artificially defer, not stop, the collapse, and have blown trillions to reinflate their asset bubbles and Ponzi markets. So the previous lows are almost certainly going to get taken out next time around, as the central bankers can’t intervene on the same magnitude they did before, and now the fundamental trustworthiness of our entire global financial system is likely going to be called into question.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-12-26 16:33:16

The masses assume that they saved us the last time around—so won’t they tend to assume that they can again?

Also, I question your assumption that they “can’t intervene on the same magnitude [as] they did before”; isn’t there no limit to their available liquidity, other than the boundaries of political acceptance? They can QE to infinity, modulo that.

 
Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-26 16:39:53

Housing demand is already at 20 year lows and falling. Do you really think more funny money will reverse that?

Of course not.

 
Comment by azdude
2016-12-26 17:20:27

we are in a frickn bull market. be happy!

 
Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-26 18:11:27

Remember Poet….. I can ask $50k for my run down 10 year old Chevy pickup but where is the buyer at that price?

So it is with all depreciating assets like houses.

 
 
 
Comment by Big Fat Ugly Bubble
2016-12-26 18:57:39

> “manipulated markets where algos account for almost all the trading volume”

I am still learning, but for the past few months I have been monitoring the market structure of some of the large equity stocks during the trading day. From what I see, they turn on the “algos” anywhere from 15 to 35 minutes after the start of trading. Most of the time it is 30 or 35 minutes after trading starts, but sometimes they turn ‘em on earlier. I’m not sure why. Also, during the most-recent Fed rate announcement day, I observed they turned *off* the algos a couple of minutes prior to the announcement, and didn’t turn them back on until 4-5 minutes later.

When the algos are enabled, from what I can tell, the main effect is a significant increase in market liquidity at all the price levels close to, and including, the best-bid and best-ask — it is like two clouds of deeper liquidity that follow the price around all day. I believe this has a dampening effect on the magnitudes of price swings. I believe this additional liquidity also makes it easier fo very large players to move in and out of the market without causing too much impact on price.

I’m not sure if the algos are “evil” or not, but what is concerning to me is when they turn ‘em off. Liquidity is far less, and price fluctuations are much larger, both on the upside or downside. I am looking forward to when we have the next “panic day” in the stock market — to see if they turn off the algos, and how much that contributes. In a sense, kind of like the old days when the brokers simply stopped answering their phones on big crash days.

 
 
Comment by cactus
2016-12-26 18:21:05

Bond bubble this time like in the 1970’s maybe

Housing bubble? Seems different than 2006 when I sold my townhome and was told I was crazy and stupid to sell. Even had my uncle call me saying ” what are you going to put your equity in the stock market thats a bad idea” and he’s a MD .

I had two little kids and everyone though I had just sunk my family.

Anyway seems like a government bond bubble ( debt bubble) which could spread to stocks and housing ?

Just talking to my oldest about this he’s almost 18 and taking ecomnics in HS. Hes getting it now sure didn’t 10 years ago but he was 8 so ..

had to explain about CALPERS and how they are in trouble. 7% a year OK .. good luck.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2016-12-26 10:54:29

Obama’s exit interview: I could’ve won again

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/26/politics/axe-files-president-obama/index.html

Takin’ a slap at Hillary there.

“It means caring about local races, state boards or school boards and city councils and state legislative races and not thinking that somehow, just a great set of progressive policies that we present to the New York Times editorial board will win the day.”

Interestingly, there was a study that showed Trump would’ve beaten Obama during the last election if he had run instead of Romney. Would’ve been close, but he would’ve won.

http://thefederalistpapers.org/us/boom-donald-trump-would-have-beaten-barack-obama-in-2012

Of course, there’s other studies that say differently, but I think T could have pulled it off. For example, I didn’t vote for Romney, neither did my buddy who wasn’t going to vote but converted to Trump after reading Ben’s reality adjustment on what was really at stake in the election. I’d be willing to bet there were many like us who didn’t come out for Romney, who would’ve come out for Trump.

Comment by phony scandals
2016-12-26 18:49:14

‘NO WAY’: Trump mocks Obama for saying he could have beaten him if he were allowed to run again – and cites job losses, Obamacare and the ISIS terror army as reasons

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4066510/Obama-says-beaten-Trump-allowed-run-weigh-important-issues-ex-president-instead-staying-sidelines.html#ixzz4TzzsUZ6F
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

 
 
Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-26 11:30:01

wholesale_mortgage_delinquencies

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 11:35:31

Another incipient crisis caused by fundamentally unsound Keynesian monetary policies. 2017 is going to be interesting, in the Chinese curse sense of the word.

http://www.businessinsider.com/vietnam-loose-monetary-policy-sowing-the-seeds-of-the-next-crisis-2016-12

Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-26 16:51:50

Another third world country undergoing a credit boom. Vietnam’s minimum wage is 50 cents an hour, yet I’ll bet they’re also building $500K flats like they are in Myanmar. Or in Nigeria, etc.

No bubble there, folks. Move along.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-12-26 11:37:51

Ashland, OR Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/ashland-or/home-values/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 12:13:09

No wonder Japanese young people are choosing not to have sex or get married. The BoJ and arch-fraudster Abe have ensured that future generations of Japanese are going to be face an economic nuclear winter for a generation. Heckova job, Keynesians.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-26/bank-japan-top-buyer-japanese-stocks-2016

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 12:15:00

The globalists are clutching their pearls in horror at the thought of a NATIONALIST inauguration speech from Trump.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/trump-miller-inauguration-speech-232967

 
Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-26 12:23:00
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 12:38:47

Because it has the highest stupidity rate?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-26 12:39:41

That’s unpossible! Natty Ice told us right here that only winners live in California.

Comment by cactus
2016-12-26 18:33:24

Had a begger approach me at the beach today said he needed food for him and his wife, so i gave him a package of chocolate covered blueberreies he looked put out , no cash handouts, went back to his car the one with fabric over the windows.

Ventura home of the homeless. They ask me for food so I give it too them every time, always carry some crappy sugar snack in the car I get free from work. The looks on their faces is great ..

Did this while driving my Chinese boss around one time he was not happy said don’t give them anything.

These homelss are not going to love it when the Chinese buy and own CA, they aren’t going to get sh$t.

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-26 18:55:29

chinese dumb.borrowed.money is no different than american dumb.borrowed.money

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 20:51:01

I don’t think I’ve ever seen an Asian or Mexican panhandler in any of the states I’ve been in. The vast majority seem like white riffraff.

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Comment by tresho
2016-12-27 07:44:51

Did this while driving my Chinese boss around one time he was not happy said don’t give them anything.
My sister was shocked when her Jain meditation teacher told her the same thing. That particular teacher actually did support charities back in India.

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Comment by rms
2016-12-27 08:41:42

Your post reminds me of Jas Jain from Mojave, CA., IIRC.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2016-12-26 12:38:36

The Big Short came out last year around this time. It’s worthwhile to take a moment to listen to Margot Robbie explaining subprime, as she succinctly describes the cycle of a housing bubble: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epb98OcFLZE

Mortgages are a reliable source of interest (government insured mortgages even more so). In a boom situation, the system cannot satisfy the demand for mortgages, so they start creating garbage debt on which they can profit.

Ironically though… there were vastly more prime defaults than subprime defaults. Which indicates a couple of possibilities: 1) The definition of “prime” is flawed, or 2) there was a high level of speculative buying in those prime mortgage-backed purchases.

With the mortgage finance system nationalized, a recession would cause more defaults and another round of money printing (unvoted-on wealth redistribution) by the Fed as it sequesters the debt on its balance sheet.

The government and media backing destructive-for-the-individual policies like this leads to a loss of confidence in institutions.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 12:58:43

Margot Robbie in a bubblebath explaining subprime - brilliant - I had to click on that link a dozen times before I grasped the basic concept.

Comment by Bubblebot
2016-12-26 21:25:21

“Margot Robbie in a bubblebath explaining subprime - brilliant - I had to click on that link a dozen times before I grasped the basic concept.”

Ha. Somehow I doubt that since I’ve had to google the definition of several words in your posts. Was she talking too fast? lol

 
 
 
Comment by azdude
2016-12-26 17:21:50

I’m looking for an offer on my shack. loan is assumable. Tire kickers keep walking!

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-12-26 20:29:35

Maybe you should consider dropping the price? There is a market-clearing price for anything, a price at which it will sell quickly; you are obviously pricing way above that price.

Comment by Phoneys
2016-12-26 21:10:48

:roll:

 
 
 
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