December 26, 2016

From Buy, Buy, Buy To Stop, Stop, Stop

A report from Harvest Public Media. “Cropland in the Midwest is losing its value as the downturn in the agriculture economy continues. Record-high crop prices contributed to record-high land values in 2012 and 2013. But now, that party is over. Iowa State University economist Wendong Zhang says across the Corn Belt, and into the Great Plains, farmers are now suffering from oversupply, despite strong demand. The result has been a drop in commodity prices, and a bust in the farmland bubble. ‘Because we had this really high profits, everyone is trying to increase productions,’ Zhang says.”

The Farm & Ranch Guide. “Land values have been on a slow, gradual decline since their peak several years ago, but Brent Qualey, accredited land consultant/rural appraiser for Farmers National Company, said the land market is very localized and varies depending on land quality. ‘Right now there’s a good balance,’ he said. ‘When something comes up for sale, there’s still an adequate amount of buyers out there. There hasn’t been much land for sale this year, and there wasn’t much land for sale a year ago, but if we all of a sudden start to see some lender-encouraged sales and we start to see some people say ‘well now is the time to sell,’ then there will be a big influx of land being put on the market. That could definitely lead to a softening in values.’”

From KPC News. “Farm incomes will likely continue to slump next year, with grain prices remaining at or near their lowest levels in about a decade, according to an analysis by agricultural economists at Purdue University. U.S. agricultural exports are expected to recover slightly after two years of decline, but not nearly enough to offset increasing global grain stocks, says Chris Hurt, editor of the Purdue Agricultural Economics Report. ‘In the last three years, U.S. production has outpaced usage for corn, soybeans and wheat,’ Hurt says. ‘Abundant inventories of grains and soybeans mean low prices.’”

“Livestock producers typically benefit when the grain they use to feed their animals is cheaper. But three years of steadily increasing production has kept beef cattle prices low with little recovery in sight, says Jim Mintert, director of the Center for Commercial Agriculture. ‘After averaging near $153 per hundredweight in 2016, prices for 500-600 pound steers in Kentucky could average in the $120s in 2017,’ Mintert says. ‘Calf prices at this level are below the break-even price on many cow-calf operations, which could bring herd expansion to a halt in 2017.’”

“According to the annual Purdue Farmland Value Survey, an acre of average Indiana farmland was worth $7,041 last year, down from a peak of $8,129 in 2013 — a 13.4 percent decline. ‘The primary force behind the farmland value decline has been the decline in crop production profitability,’ says Craig Dobbins, farm management specialist.”

The Alberta Farm Express. “Errol Anderson’s opinion on the global economic downturn isn’t one you’ll read in too many newspapers. ‘I’m going to make a bold statement: We are at the end of an 80-year capitalistic cycle that has already been prolonged 10 years by central bank manipulation. It has to be refreshed, and it will be,’ said Anderson, president of ProMarket Communications. ‘I believe that economics always rule. Central bankers can do whatever they’re doing to kick the can (down the road) but in the end, economics always rule. There’s no sense in denying what’s going on in these financial markets right now.’”

“Central banks have been trying to jumpstart the flagging economy by printing money and adjusting interest rates, Anderson said at the Farming Smarter conference in early this month. ‘Right now, the central bank stimulus bubble is three times larger than the dot-com and the U.S. housing bubble combined,’ he said. ‘We’ve got a very sleepy market right now. In 2017, we’re going to see it start to swing because economics are going to start to cut into these markets…. Something has to give.’”

“So what does this mean for agricultural commodities? ‘Demand is king — not supply,’ said Anderson, pointing to the plunge in cattle prices. ‘Cattle are in short supply, aren’t they? Shouldn’t prices hold? The cattle market was in tight supply, and we were told that these prices would continue to go higher into 2016 and 2017, and all of a sudden feeders went to half price. Why? Demand.’”

“People tend to think that supply and demand equals price, but ‘in reality, it doesn’t work that way.’ ‘It’s the guy with the chequebook and what he wants to pay that dictates that,’ said Anderson. ‘So when you see strong demand — even on the grain side — all of a sudden it will quit and come back down. We go from buy, buy, buy to stop, stop stop.’”

“For wheat, the story is ‘very aggressive’ discounting by Russia and Ukraine, he said. ‘The Black Sea region is really dictating where global wheat prices are going. Russia’s currency crumbled about a year ago, and that gave them a huge competitive advantage. It’s going to be tough’ if you’ve only got lower-quality wheat to sell.”

“‘Grief’ is a good word to describe the cattle market right now, said Anderson. ‘What’s bugging cattle? Hogs. The hog market just fell apart,’ he said. ‘The meat protein market in the U.S. went into a glut, and beef had to compete against that.’ Right now, the situation for feeder cattle is ‘ugly,’ he said. ‘Backgrounders took the brunt of this. It went from $240 a hundredweight down to $120. This feeding cycle was worse than BSE,’ said Anderson.”

“The boom years appear to be over, and producers — like those in the oil and gas sector — are going to have to adjust to the ‘new normal,’ said Anderson. ‘The new normal is prolonged, slow economic growth globally. Nothing is going to change that.’”




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135 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-26 17:23:56

This is largely overlooked:

‘Right now, the central bank stimulus bubble is three times larger than the dot-com and the U.S. housing bubble combined’

Comment by rms
2016-12-26 17:55:41

Recently saw a package of four (4) Filet Mignon steaks is $34 at Costco in Wenatchee, WA. FWIW, we buy lean ground Turkey.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-26 21:52:09

$13/lb?

Comment by rms
2016-12-26 22:15:57

More than that, IIRC. Too proud for me.

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Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-27 09:01:24

I’ve seen it for $13 at the local warehouse clubs like Sam’s and Costco. $15 at King Soopers (Kroger)

 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-12-27 05:34:42

Cow beef,sold as lean ,healthy

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Comment by taxpayer
2016-12-27 09:31:02

when yellen testifies why don’t congressional members ask for a test sale from the MBS pool

-too scary
10% discount or more ?

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 17:58:07

‘I believe that economics always rule. Central bankers can do whatever they’re doing to kick the can (down the road) but in the end, economics always rule. There’s no sense in denying what’s going on in these financial markets right now.’

True price discovery, when it finally asserts itself, is going to lay waste to the Fed’s asset bubbles and Ponzi markets.

Comment by azdude
2016-12-26 19:36:18

they can keep get this going a long time.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-26 21:17:44

‘NYT’s James Risen Slams Obama, ‘Most Anti-Press WH since Nixon’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PK0Ol5kOyeU

Comment by palmetto
2016-12-27 05:58:59

‘Most Anti-Press WH since Nixon’

He ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.

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Comment by palmetto
2016-12-27 06:15:58

Excuse me, I posted my comment before watching the video, responding to the “anti-press WH” statement. Trump’s pretty anti-press, “dishonest media”, but I don’t think he’ll rise to the level of suppression this guy is talking about.

Anyway, considering the NYT lied about Iraq, I guess payback’s a beetch.

However, it is true that the Obama regime has been horrible for whistleblowers. So it’s not just “the press”.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-27 07:03:05

NYT are among the worst of the DNC’s lapdogs, as revealed by Wikileaks and their fawning “coverage” of the Obama administration.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 18:00:29

“For wheat, the story is ‘very aggressive’ discounting by Russia and Ukraine, he said. ‘The Black Sea region is really dictating where global wheat prices are going. Russia’s currency crumbled about a year ago, and that gave them a huge competitive advantage. It’s going to be tough’ if you’ve only got lower-quality wheat to sell.”

From what I understand, the Russians don’t allow GMO franken-seeds. Monsanto was pushing hard to make inroads into the Ukraine - don’t know if they succeeded or not.

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-12-26 18:12:29

Beacon Hill Seattle, WA Housing Prices Crater 12% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/beacon-hill-seattle-wa/home-values/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 18:22:22

Meanwhile, depositors are yanking their money from Italy’s troubled Monte Paschi as insolvency looms.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-26/italian-bank-run-monte-paschi-capital-shortfall-surges-75-€88bn-due-rapid-liquidity-

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-26 20:34:07

Well, looky here. Chinese specualtors have driven commodities to nosebleed levels, with much of the physical stocks warehoused and used for collateral on loans - and often pledged as collateral for multiple loans, unbeknownst to lenders. Which is all well and good until the lenders try to seize the collateral on non-performing loans and discover they’ve been left holding the bag.

Right now Chinese “investors” are fleeing to the illusury “safety” of Bitcoin…but when that scam currency collapses, the flight to quality, i.e. physical precious metals, will likely be epic.

 
 
Comment by Karen
2016-12-27 00:19:07

What a great bunch of articles Ben brought us. A whole heap of economic truth that many people, even many posters on this board, want to deny:

Demand controls economic transactions, not supply (but if supply is abundant, prices will go down even with strong demand.)

The price you can get for an end product determines the prices of all its component parts and the other factors needed to produce it, such as labor, machinery, and land (you do not, as most people think, add the prices of the component parts together with a percentage for profit to produce the product price.)

High demand, whether natural or artificial (central-bank-inflation-caused speculative bubbles) will always cause massive supply bubbles as people rush to profit from the boom, which is then followed by the inevitable crash, just as day follows night.

You can ask $50K for your 20 year old Chevy, but you’re not gonna get it.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2016-12-27 06:36:30

“You can ask $50K for your 20 year old Chevy, but you’re not gonna get it.”

But it has mud flaps!

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-27 07:04:08

But…but…entitlement!

 
Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-27 07:31:22

Remember my friend….. Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels.

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-12-27 10:22:42

What about a 1955 Chevy? Timing is everything.

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-27 13:21:30

Nothing.

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Comment by oxide
2016-12-27 07:50:58

I wonder how much of the drop in land prices is due to the anticipated phase-out of corn ethanol.

That said, why did the demand for meat drop? It’s not the same as China stopping building skyscrapers. People still have to eat.

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-27 08:02:18

Land prices fall to their utility level Donk.

Remember….. There is a globe full of worthless dirt and 95% goes unused and undeveloped

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-27 08:48:34

‘farmers are now suffering from oversupply, despite strong demand. ‘Because we had this really high profits, everyone is trying to increase productions’

In a post recently it was reported Asia increased fish farming 60% since the QE blowout. One guy said, “you have so much of the worlds population, we should be selling you fish, not the other way around.” Remember the article with vast areas in the Amazon being turned into farmland in order to chase these high prices? In a globalized economy, the commodity boom QE generated created oversupply all round the globe, just like with oil. Low interest rates kept the frackers alive and the offshore drillers. Now OPEC is borrowing money to produce oil in some cases at a loss. China is still producing steel at a loss. Their government outlawed more empty cites (CAW Dan!) For prices to go up, a lot of companies have to go out of business.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-27 08:54:25

‘China seems to have excess iron ore supply, and this “unaccounted inventory” poses “acute downside risk” to iron ore prices, Axiom’s Gordon L. Johnson said in a report.’

‘While iron ore imports into China have increased by 78 million tons this year, iron ore consumption has risen by merely 10 million tons, with at least flat domestic iron ore supply. Moreover, port inventories are up 18 million tons year to date, analyst Johnson mentioned. He added, “All of this begs the question [...] where is all the excess inventory at?”

‘Prices of existing homes rose in 47 out of 70 cities, up only 34bps month-over-month on average, the lowest since January 2016. Prices for residential space rose only 7.7 percent month-over-month in November, up by the least since January.’

“While the cause of this effect, as we see it, is due to buying restrictions imposed across 17 cities, we contend the worst is yet to come — to wit, we believe slowing growth in property sales/prices will feed into new housing starts (i.e., ~36 percent of China’s steel demand) and, thus, see warning signs abound,” Johnson commented.’

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Comment by Justme
2016-12-27 10:02:22

>>vast areas in the Amazon being turned into farmland in order to chase these high prices?

That is obscene. The Fed is actively destroying the planet with QE and zero interest rates (ZIRP). No corner of the world is safe from this destruction, all so that rich people qnd banks will not suffer paper losses on their assets.

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Comment by Cynic
2016-12-27 22:31:06

At what point did the Fed decide that it’s mandate required it to enter the asset inflation business?

 
 
Comment by oxide
2016-12-27 10:17:57

Ha! So pigs and cows are now like all those shiny new fracking rigs and luxury apartments and garlic too … everyone ramped up production — at near ZIRP — to chase those luxury profit margins.

Problem with meat is, you can’t refuse to “give it way” and sit on it until prices recover. Meat is perishable, unless you convert it to summer sausage and beef jerky. … Hmmm, come to think it of it, over the past year I’ve seen quite a surge of beef jerky for sale. Big bags of the stuff in trendy flavors like sriracha. Lots of shelf-space in 7-11, and it’s even an impulse buy at the checkout lines at the grocery store. They must be trying to unload tons of perishable beef/pork.

(and just for you, HA, there’s even a grass-fed jerky stick at Trader’s Joe’s. :razz: )

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-27 10:28:15

They have the option of drying it, canning, freezing, etc. Meat protein can be interchangeable. Like the guy says above, oversupply in hogs results in lower beef prices.

 
Comment by Cynic
2016-12-27 22:33:54

‘Problem with meat is, you can’t refuse to “give it way” and sit on it until prices recover.’

It’s even worse with houses, as unlike meat, you can’t store a house by changing its form into something that can be stored long-term, as Ben suggested. Physical depreciation tears down structures continually while prices decline.

 
 
 
Comment by drumminj
2016-12-27 10:36:56

That said, why did the demand for meat drop? It’s not the same as China stopping building skyscrapers. People still have to eat.

Wasn’t there an increase in beef/meat consumption due to it starting to become more of a part of the Chinese diet, whereas in the path they couldn’t afford it?

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-12-27 09:10:15

“Demand controls economic transactions, not supply (but if supply is abundant, prices will go down even with strong demand.)”

Claptrap…

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-12-27 01:26:01

‘Because we had this really high profits, everyone is trying to increase productions,’

Speaky no English?

Comment by oxide
2016-12-27 07:29:16

Well I speaky no Chinese at all, so this sounds pretty good.

 
 
Comment by Palm Beach County
2016-12-27 04:29:43

Mark Hanson ‏@MrMarkHanson Dec 24
Mark Hanson Retweeted Empire Decline
Kinda contradicts the most recent Euphoric Homebuilder Sentiment Survey. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-builder-sentiment-soars-as-developers-bank-on-a-trump-bump-2016-12-15 … . Then again so did Housing Starts @ yr low

 
Comment by Palm Beach County
2016-12-27 04:31:17

Mark Hanson ‏@MrMarkHanson Dec 23
HANSON & HOUSE PRICE DECLINES: New Home Sales “volume” was noisy; sales actually DWN 10%. REAL STORY is the 2-YEAR TREND of WEAKENING PRICES
https://twitter.com/mrmarkhanson

 
Comment by azdude
2016-12-27 05:22:04

grab the bull by the horn and ride it to riches!

Comment by new attitude
2016-12-27 11:56:20

AZ - are you the only one that made money during the Obama boom?

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-27 12:40:19

‘the Obama boom?’

Example

Comment by new attitude
2016-12-27 13:22:36

DOW 20k and record housing prices. Ya just need to cash in, dont hold into the upcoming crash.

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Comment by phony scandals
2016-12-27 14:17:38

Obama boom

Middle class lost their money and their doctor and the Democrats lost over 1,000 seats.

Democrats lost over 1,000 seats under Obama

Dec 27, 2016
Posted By WCSI
National Politics

While Obama’s tireless campaigning, broad demographic appeal and message of “hope” and “change” helped propel him to two terms in the White House, his skills on the stump haven’t translated down the ballot.

The Democratic Party suffered huge losses at every level during Obama’s West Wing tenure.

The grand total: a net loss of 1,043 state and federal Democratic posts, including congressional and state legislative seats, governorships and the presidency.

The latter was perhaps the most profound example of Obama’s popularity failing to translate to support for his allies. Hillary Clinton, who served as secretary of state under Obama, brought the first family out for numerous campaign appearances. In September, Obama declared that his “legacy’s on the ballot.”

Less than two months later, Americans voted for Donald Trump.

http://1010wcsi.com/democrats-lost-over-1000-seats-under-obama/

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-12-27 17:19:59

some win, some lose…. see last 10000 yrs. Key is to win.

record corp profits, DOW 20k. 4.7% un

Namaste

 
Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-27 21:27:31

Record high unemployment, record low job opportunity, collapsing demand, falling wages.

The Obama Legacy.

 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-12-27 14:21:40

“made money during the Obama boom?”

Biggest Billionaire Gainer Of 2016: Warren Buffett’s Fortune Surges More Than Anyone Else In America

Tue, Dec 27, 2016 @ 08:02 via forbes

https://www.follownews.com/biggest-billionaire-gainer-of-2016-warren-buffetts-fortune-surges-more-than-anyone-else-in-america-2bqve

 
 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2016-12-27 06:15:06

Carole King’s Robinson Bar Ranch encompassed by Idaho’s Sawtooth National Recreation Area. Listed by Hall & Hall, the property was $16 million, now reduced to $9.9 million.

https://www.toptenrealestatedeals.com/homes/weekly-ten-best-home-deals/2016/12-12-2016/1/

Comment by oxide
2016-12-27 07:52:14

Actually that looks pretty nice. The cave shower is cool, but don’t slip!

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-27 09:03:17

How much did she pay for it?

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-12-27 09:22:54

more than 30 years ago….bet under a million.

here is more background on it…Carole King and public access

http://www.pocatelloshops.com/new_blogs/politics/?p=13453

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-27 09:44:54

How many millions did she sink into that shack after she mortgaged it? 5 million? 10 million?

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Comment by azdude
2016-12-27 06:26:57

bull.market.haters

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-12-27 06:35:57

The Obama Legacy: Creating More, Better Jobs

December 22, 2016 | Elise Gould & Teresa Kroeger

During his 2016 presidential campaign, president-elect Donald Trump promised that if he was elected, “the American worker will finally have a president who will protect them and fight for them.” Creating good-paying and high-quality jobs is definitely a worthwhile goal for the president to increase Americans’ living standards and decrease poverty.

Despite the president-elect’s claim that there are “no jobs,” the labor market has improved at a remarkably steady rate as the country worked its way out of the deep recession. During the past six years, there has been job growth each and every month, and a 5 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate. In part, that’s due to President Obama’s Recovery Act, which stimulated growth, provided aid to states, and invested in infrastructure. The rescue of the auto industry saved at least 1 million jobs, and kept an entire region out of a severe depression.

In 2015, most Americans finally started to feel the benefits of the recovery. Income rose for the typical American household, and the poverty rate saw one of the largest single-year declines in almost 50 years—primarily due to improvements in the labor market.

As steady as the recovery has been, the United States has not yet reached a full employment economy. There are still too few jobs, too few hours, and too slow wage growth for millions of people who are willing and able to work. Along with a strong safety net, decent jobs and wages for low-income people and their families is one of the most effective methods of reducing poverty.

If the next administration genuinely wants to create decent jobs, it will need to do much more than strike piecemeal deals with individual companies. It should work with the Federal Reserve to prioritize full employment, and make sure that we get there by keeping interest rates low until there is consistently strong wage growth. It should also take steps—some of which were taken by President Obama—to make sure these jobs make it possible for people to support themselves.

https://talkpoverty.org/2016/12/22/obama-legacy-creating-better-jobs/

Comment by palmetto
2016-12-27 06:56:41

Oh, God, please make it stop.

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-12-27 07:04:05

“The Obama Legacy: Creating More, Better Jobs”

Fake nudes.

Comment by azdude
2016-12-27 07:17:22

if it wasn’t for the huge deficits a lot of these folks would have to get real jobs and produce.

We seem to have a group of folks addicted to this borrowed money and dont want the party to stop.

Comment by new attitude
2016-12-27 12:47:22

toothless zombies from the south and ghettos with zero skills will never be hired for anything. too much of a liability.

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Comment by MightyMike
2016-12-27 13:17:26

A significant portion of all jobs require very few skills.

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-12-27 13:46:39

name a few co’s that dont mind hiring hs dropouts, felons and addicts.

 
Comment by rms
2016-12-27 14:06:43

It’s not the skill set. Many of these losers are unreliable, unhealthy, have bad habits, and they’re often also cheats and thieves looking for something to steal, a way to get hurt on the job and sue, etc., so they’ve no one to blame but themselves.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-12-27 14:09:35

McDonalds, WalMart

There must be many.

 
Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-27 14:25:09

Nonsense.

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-12-27 17:21:47

BS.

the zombies are unhireable. churches wont even hire them

 
 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-27 07:06:01

Fake news from The Narrative purveyors, i.e. the DNC’s media presstitutes.

 
Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-27 07:28:01

Meltdown Mike! How were the RageCage accommodations?

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-12-27 08:09:31

“There are still too few jobs, too few hours, and too slow wage growth for millions of people who are willing and able to work”

94,708,000 Americans not in the labor force and there are still too few jobs, too few hours, and too slow wage growth for millions of people who are willing and able to work.

Thanks Obama

By Susan Jones | June 3, 2016 | 8:49 AM EDT

(CNSNews.com) - A record 94,708,000 Americans were not in the labor force in May — 664,000 more than in April — and the labor force participation rate dropped two-tenths of a point to 62.6 percent, near its 38-year low, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday.

But the labor force participation rate has deteriorated over Obama’s two terms.

When Obama took office in January 2009, shortly before the recession ended, the labor force participation rate was 65.7 percent. The following month, it reached an Obama-era high of 65.8 percent, and then it began its seven-year downward spiral, hitting 62.4 percent in September 2015, its lowest point since 1977.

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/record-94708000-americans-not-labor-force-participation-rate-drops

Comment by palmetto
2016-12-27 08:23:03

Tesla and Panasonic agree to produce in Buffalo, NY. 1400 jobs. MAGA!

https://www.yahoo.com/news/tesla-panasonic-agree-pv-cells-buffalo-york-101926856–finance.html

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-12-27 08:44:16

94,708,000 Americans not in the labor force

All of those kids and octogenarians got lazy due to the free government cheese handed out by Obama.

Comment by phony scandals
2016-12-27 09:01:50

Handed out by Obama?

Well I know they didn’t attend his fundraisers so how did they get 94,708,000 Americans on a golf course?

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Comment by taxpayer
2016-12-27 09:34:27

stamps and other welfare at record highs,yo

trumpf better bring back workfare and 30 day limit on unemp bennies

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-12-27 10:16:11

OK but better increase 10 fold the EEOC discrimination lawyers because older workers will file claims en mass and as long as they have a claim they still get unemployment.

oh workfare is abusive and punitive, unless you can be placed in a job that has to do with your resume so you can keep up your skills, no sense having a paralegal, to work at a city recycling plant sorting the trash plus it could cost a lot more if you get hurt or disabled.

workfare only seems to work at the first rung of the ladder, people with no skills or so few skills they may not even know how to set the alarm and make it to a job on time everyday.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2016-12-27 09:48:35

—————
If the next administration genuinely wants to create decent jobs, it will need to do much more than strike piecemeal deals with individual companies. It should work with the Federal Reserve to prioritize full employment, and make sure that we get there by keeping interest rates low until there is consistently strong wage growth.
————–

While Trump might want to create jobs, Congress most certainly does NOT want to create jobs. They think tax cuts will create jobs, but “jobs” is just a cover to stuff money into their donor’s pockets and they know it. Bush installed massive tax cuts and lots of jobs STILL went overseas during his Admin — especially white-collar jobs now being done by remote tech.

Meanwhile, begging to keep interest rates low is just confirmation that our economy is being driven by funny money instead of goods and services.

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-12-27 10:27:50

bring all the overseas money home tax free…..IF you spend it in america on Americans

No stock buybacks no M&A unless you can prove it adds to total employment at the combined companies….(fat chance)

NO bonuses or special pay incentives unless everyone in the company gets it…..from the ceo to the janitor

spend the money at colleges training new workers so you never need a H1B or special visas, or else its 35%

Comment by drumminj
2016-12-27 11:45:14

NO bonuses or special pay incentives unless everyone in the company gets it…..from the ceo to the janitor

so no matter how well someone performs, either no one gets a bonus for a good outcome/going above+beyond, or even the folks who just phone it in get something due to one person/set of people doing an awesome job?

That doesn’t seem fair in any way shape or form?

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Comment by aNYCdj
2016-12-27 13:35:39

i’m only talking about the overseas money being tax free instead of paying 35%

give yourself a 20% bonus but everyone in the company gets it..otherwise it will be used to fire people and the government will lose tens of billions in tax revenue

 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-12-27 13:14:39

It went pretty badly last time it was tried.

Job losses did result the last time Congress initiated a tax holiday, in 2004. The top 15 repatriating companies brought home $150 billion but reduced their work force by 20,931 jobs, according to a 2011 study commissioned by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.

Some of those cuts were tied to mergers and acquisitions. As part of the study, Oracle explained how its repatriated funds were used for two acquisitions: Retek, a software provider to the retail industry, and PeopleSoft, a rival in enterprise software. After buying both for a combined $11 billion, Oracle “eliminated thousands of jobs,” the study found.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/26/business/dealbook/will-donald-trumps-corporate-tax-holiday-create-jobs-not-necessarily.html?_r=0

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Comment by oxide
2016-12-27 14:17:04

Tax holiday in 2004, under Bush? Yeah right. I’m sure that corporate lawyers were writing intentional loopholes into that particular piece of legislation, just like the exhaust port on the Death Star. Companies went right around it.

Any new repatriation needs to have strong conditions attached to it. If the corps decide to leave the money overseas, so be it.

 
 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2016-12-27 16:32:25

If the next administration genuinely wants to create decent jobs, it will need to do much more than strike piecemeal deals with individual companies. It should work with the Federal Reserve to prioritize full employment

The Federal Reserve is perhaps the mightiest economic entity on the planet. However, it has no profit motive to incentivize (require) agility and forward thinking. It runs grand experiments with other people’s money, and suffers no consequence for failure (it came out of the 2008 debacle, despite being totally asleep at the switch, with even more power).

The central banks ought not to be market participants. They are run by “technocrats” who have skin in the game they’re controlling with other people’s money and wealth.

This is a recipe for stagnation and descent into central planning.

Power accretes around existing power centers (like space dust accretes around forming stars). The challenge is to prevent that from happening. Because despite their extremely august credentials, Fed officials could not forecast the 2008 financial crisis, among other things.

and make sure that we get there by keeping interest rates low until there is consistently strong wage growth.

We’ve had 8 years of these novel economic policies. There was what fed planners expected to happen, and what actually did happen. It would be fascinating to see, in concrete, quantifiable terms, what the results have been. Not just vague, take credit for anything good, assign blame for anything bad, typical politico-bureaucratic handwaving.

 
 
Comment by new attitude
2016-12-27 10:25:39

We had a fantastic 7 yrs…. Time for a deep recession. End Fed life support and take our medicine.

Comment by rms
2016-12-27 20:02:01

“Time for a deep recession.”

FWIW, we’re still in a deep recession in many parts of the country, and the next leg down will likely mean soup kitchens and garbage can fires… for the hard-scrabble men anyway.

Comment by Cynic
2016-12-27 22:40:45

How are the Democratic Party’s affordable housing programs working out for homeless people?

Local
D.C. has the highest homeless rate of 32 U.S. cities, a new survey finds
Homeless people sleep in the walkway area near the entrance to the McPherson Square Metro station in this file photo. (Michael S. Williamson/The Washington Post)
By Justin Wm. Moyer
December 14

The District had the highest rate of homelessness in a new survey that looked at the problem in 32 U.S. cities.

The “Hunger and Homelessness” survey from the U.S. Conference of Mayors found that D.C. has 124.2 homeless people for every 10,000 residents in the general population. The city also had one of the fastest increases in homelessness between 2009 and 2016, with a 34.1 percent gain. By comparison, New York had the largest increase during that period, at 49 percent.

The number of homeless people in families in the District also surged by 103.54 percent between those years, the survey found. That was second only to Wichita, which had a 160.8 percent increase.

In some areas, the District fared well, registering the lowest proportion of unsheltered homeless people and one of the lowest proportions of homeless youths in the survey. The report also praised a Department of Human Services program that houses homeless veterans.

The office of Mayor Muriel E. Bowser (D) said the report shows that more work needs to be done to battle the city’s shortage of affordable housing.

“This report offers both encouragement for many of the things we are doing right in the District, as well as an honest assessment of additional steps we can take to reduce homelessness,” Bowser’s communications director, Kevin Harris, said in a statement. “The mayor agrees that a comprehensive approach is needed to adequately address homelessness, including more affordable housing and higher wages — two areas this administration has led on through our minimum wage increase and an unprecedented $100 million annual investment in the affordable housing fund.”

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by rms
2016-12-27 20:09:00

“Nothing better describes the present state of Germany than the sad fate of Maria Landenburger, a 19-year-old girl, murdered at the beginning of December. A member of a refugee relief organization, Landenburger was among those who welcomed migrants in 2015. She was raped and murdered by one of the people she was helping. Her family asked anyone who wanted to pay tribute to their daughter to give money to refugee associations, so that more refugees could come to Germany.”

Her father is a high-ranking EU official… likely sold his daughter’s soul for political survival. Sad.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-27 06:39:15

Precious metals moving up nicely this morning, and should be set to soar as tens of millions of people suddenly wake up to the reality that the Keynesian lunatics running our central banks intend to print away all government and corporate debts and liabilities.

http://www.kitco.com/market/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-27 06:41:16

Meanwhile, despite bailout after bailout, Greece is still un-fixed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/12/27/greece-crisis-has-no-end-sight/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-27 06:44:12

Who could’ve ever foreseen that the DNC’s identity politics and attempts to import millions of Democrat-on-Arrival entitlement voters would provoke a white backlash?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-wins-white-wall-hillary-clinton-latino-wave-a7410646.html

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-12-27 06:57:55

Some Trump practices mimic what he rapped Clinton for

By Lisa Lerer Associated Press December 25, 2016

WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald Trump is adopting some of the same practices for which he criticized Hillary Clinton during their fiery campaign, such as installing Wall Street executives in his Cabinet and giving prominent roles to political donors.

A number of former employees of the Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs will have a major part in crafting Trump’s economic policy.

He has tapped Goldman Sachs president Gary Cohn to lead the White House National Economic Council. Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary nominee, spent 17 years at Goldman Sachs and Steve Bannon, Trump’s chief strategist and senior counselor, started his career as an investment banker at the firm.

On the campaign trail, Trump derided what he said were Clinton’s close ties to Wall Street. “She’s totally controlled by Wall Street and all these people that gave her millions,’’ he said at a May rally in Lynden, Wash.

But Trump has stocked his Cabinet with six top donors — far more than any recent White House has. ‘‘I want people that made a fortune. Because now they’re negotiating with you, OK?’’ Trump said in a Dec. 9 speech in Des Moines.

Linda McMahon, incoming administrator of the Small Business Administration, gave $7.5 million to a super PAC backing Trump, more than a third of the money collected by the political action committee.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2016/12/25/some-trump-practices-mimic-what-rapped-clinton-for/gGwgD8zB3MIrPUe460CatM/story.html

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-12-27 09:12:49

The one thing that remains constant from one U.S. presidential administration to the next is the prevalence of former Goldman Sachs employees in high level administrative positions.

 
Comment by taxpayer
2016-12-27 10:27:06

his picks are ok, and Pence is handy in case the donald explodes or whatever human tornados do

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-12-27 22:42:39

Kellyanne Conway is the best thing that ever happened to Donald Trump.

 
 
 
Comment by azdude
2016-12-27 07:04:01

The only thing that rose were stock and home prices. They spent 4.5 trillion @ least to do it. None of the money has been paid back.

Fed still has a huge balance sheet.They will hold the bonds till maturity and then they will buy some more so those ones can be paid off.

It seems the FED is the buyer of last resort for bonds nobody else wants.

They can buy as much as they want it appears. They are like a big piggy bank.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-27 07:13:25

Stop the oligarchy’s financial warfare against the 99%. End the Fed.

http://endthefed.org

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2016-12-27 07:06:43

Ron Paul wants a spot on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/ron-paul-federal-reserve-board-of-governors-campaign-for-liberty/2016/12/18/id/764560/

I’d like to see it, but unfortunately, he should never have aligned himself with the Never Trump movement.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-27 07:09:36

Looks like capital flight out of China is accelerating, notwithstanding the Politburo’s feeble attempts to curtail their well-connected cronies’ frantic efforts to store wealth abroad before it all comes crashing down.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-27/bitcoin-surges-20-week-chinese-volumes-hit-record-high

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-27 07:21:38

‘Here’s why China’s currency outflows are much larger than they appear’

‘Since June, the People’s Bank of China has liquidated $1.1 trillion in foreign-currency reserves, according to a calculation by a team of analysts at Goldman Sachs. That’s nearly double the $540 billion reported by the PBOC, when adjusted for shifts in the yuan’s valuation, between August 2015 and November 2016.’

‘Goldman arrived at its figure by incorporating data provided by the State Authority on Foreign Exchange, the arm of the PBOC responsible for currency flows. That data details flows that are considered approved Chinese corporate demand, as well as money flowing through the offshore yuan market.’

Comment by azdude
2016-12-27 07:30:15

Basically china has printed a sh@load of money to sell us stuff.

When one of their merchants get paid in dollars they take them to the pboc and get their own currency.

So if their currency is pegged lower the more money the pboc prints to make up the difference.

If the dollar rises in value then it takes more yuan to make a dollar.

The pboc backed up the truck and bought US treasuries with all their dollars.

They are addicted to our money.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-27 09:07:32

But Natty Ice says that the US is irrelevant now, because all of the net exporters are trading with each other.

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Comment by Phoneys
2016-12-27 10:01:39

:roll:

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-12-27 15:48:27

Got fraudulent guarantees?

Business News | Mon Dec 26, 2016 | 11:45am EST
China bank calls documents “fake” after bond default on Alibaba-linked platform

The fate of a defaulted $45 million Chinese corporate bond sold through an Alibaba-backed online wealth management platform was thrown into doubt on Monday, after a bank said letters of guarantee for the bonds were counterfeit.

China Guangfa Bank Co Ltd said guarantee documents, official seals and personal seals presented by the insurer of the bonds “are all fake” and that it has reported the matter to the police.

The dispute highlights challenges in China’s loosely regulated online finance industry, where retail investors often buy high-yielding bonds and other assets, expecting them to be “risk-free” due to guarantees provided by various parties.

At the centre of the latest dispute are 312 million yuan ($45 million) worth of high-yielding bonds issued by southern Chinese phone maker Cosun Group that defaulted this month.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-27 07:12:21

Have the Fed’s asset bubbles and Ponzi markets finally peaked? We’ll see soon enough.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-27/us-home-prices-hit-record-high-october-what-happens-next

Comment by azdude
2016-12-27 07:31:47

you have a feeling these markets wont crater until they want them to.

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-27 08:05:23

Remember…. I can ask $50k for my run down Chevy pickup but where is the buyer at that price?

So it is with all depreciating assets like houses

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-27 07:18:08

More Americans than ever will be priced out of the housing market or made homeless by rents they can no longer afford. Heckova job, Yellen.

http://www.marketwatch.com/newsviewer

 
Comment by tresho
2016-12-27 07:22:25

1% rise in unemployment correlated to 11% rise in suicides - Boston Globe

FALL RIVER [Massachusetts]— In this struggling industrial city, changes in trade policy are being measured not only in jobs lost, but also in lives lost — to suicide.

The jobs went first, the result of trade deals that sent them overseas. Once-humming factories that dressed office workers and soldiers, and made goods to furnish their homes, stand abandoned, overtaken by weeds and graffiti.

And now there is research on how the US job exodus parallels an increase in suicides. A one percentage point increase in unemployment correlated with an 11 percent increase in suicides, according to Peter Schott, a Yale University economist who coauthored the report with Justin Pierce, a researcher at the Federal Reserve Board.

The research doesn’t prove a definitive link between lost jobs and suicide; it simply notes that as jobs left, suicides rose….

The research contributes to a growing body of work that shows the dark side of global trade: the dislocation, anger, and despair in some parts of the country that came with the United States’ easing of trade with China in 2000. The impact of job losses was greatest in places such as Fall River and other cities in Bristol County, along with rural manufacturing counties in New Hampshire and Maine, vast stretches of the South, and portions of the Rust Belt…Bristol County has among the highest suicide rates in the state. Massachusetts traditionally has been below the US rate, which was 13 per 100,000 people in 2014, the last year for which there are nationwide statistics.

In Bristol County, most of the victims were white men between the ages of 44 and 65, a group that can be hard to reach with traditional interventions by health care providers such as psychologists or with community meetings, Matulis said. That has forced the coalition to consider different approaches to addressing the stubbornly high suicide rate. In coming weeks, the coalition plans to leave business cards — outlining signs of depression and phone numbers to call for help — at retailers, gas stations, bus terminals, laundromats, and men’s rooms.

“They’re not men in trouble,” [Annemarie] Matulis [director of the Bristol County Regional Coalition for Suicide Prevention] said of those who have killed themselves. “They’ve not had a prior criminal record, not even a parking ticket. These are quiet, invisible men who lost hope. Something happened along the way. The American dream never came true.”

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-12-27 07:58:52

part of the problem is some people were never taught how to move. or that’s its ok to throw in the towel and start over again in a new place or that its ok to move into your parents basement and save money to move out again.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-12-27 09:14:37

As one who has started over in a new direction several times in my life, I agree.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-12-27 07:49:14

Hillary’s chief patrons, the Saudi royal family, are still living extravagently even as the country’s socioeconomic picture grows more bleak.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/27/world/middleeast/saudi-royal-family-money.html?_r=0

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-12-27 08:02:37

http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/19/world/meast/saudi-arabia-obesity/

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has intervened to help a man who has become one of the heaviest people in the world.
The king ordered Khalid bin Mohsen Shaari, who weighs 1,345 pounds (610kg) and is unable to move by himself, be transferred from the Southern border province of Jazan to the country’s capital Riyadh to undergo treatment.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-12-27 08:10:57

‘Tesla, Panasonic agree to make PV cells in Buffalo, New York’

‘Production is due to begin in mid-2017. Tesla said it will create 1,400 jobs in Buffalo, 500 in manufacturing and plans further expansion in Buffalo. Panasonic also is to work with Tesla on next-generation technology, the companies said.’

Krugman, you are an idiot.

Comment by palmetto
2016-12-27 09:27:08

“New York state has committed $750 million to build and outfit the plant at Buffalo’s RiverBend site, the centerpiece of Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s “Buffalo Billion” program to revitalize the upstate region’s largest city.”

Remind me again what all the criticism was about on the Carrier deal.

Oh, wait, it’s a blue state and the Dems are behind this one, so it’s OK.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-12-27 11:00:42

Building solar panels in a place where the sun rarely shines.

Comment by new attitude
2016-12-27 12:06:38

NM should be covered in solar panels.

 
 
 
Comment by BullBoy
2016-12-27 09:08:28

U.S. Home prices have only one way to go from here, and that is UP.

Economy Economic Data
U.S. Home Prices Climbed Sharply in October
Hottest markets include Seattle, Denver and Portland, Ore.
Construction worker David Rager framing a window at a home being built in Orlando in 2015.
Photo: Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press
By Laura Kusisto
Dec. 27, 2016 9:07 a.m. ET

Home prices went up sharply in October, as the market showed no signs of slowing after setting a record a month earlier.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, which covers the entire nation, rose 5.6% in the 12 months ended in October, up from the 5.4% increase reported in September.

The 10-city index gained 4.3%, up from 4.2% in September. The 20-city index gained 5.1% year over year, up slightly from a 5% increase in September.

The hottest markets in the country remain concentrated in the Northwest, as many buyers priced out of the Silicon Valley area flee to secondary tech hubs. Seattle reported a 10.7% increase, Portland reported a 10.3% year-over-year gain, and Denver had an 8.3% increase in home prices.

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-27 09:42:34

Indices are a mere counterfeit and a poor substitute for boots on the ground data my good friend. Boots on the ground data.

Coral Gables, FL Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/coral-gables-fl/home-values/

 
Comment by taxpayer
2016-12-27 09:54:00

oct reporting is sept sales
which almost always beat august

yearly cycle

 
 
Comment by taxpayer
2016-12-27 09:48:22

is your county hip to the upcoming dip?
did they spend all the echo boom $ ? = yes

 
Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-27 09:58:11

“New Record: Americans Not in Labor Force Breaks 95 Million for First Time”

http://freebeacon.com/issues/new-record-americans-not-labor-force-breaks-95-million-first-time/

Record high joblessness, cratering housing demand, record inventory of cars, houses, commodities. President Donald J. Trump thanks you Obama.

God bless President Donald J. Trump and God bless America.

Comment by new attitude
2016-12-27 11:32:13

Bring on the crash, cut gov spending!

Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-27 12:48:01

The crash arrived long ago my friend.

Comment by new attitude
2016-12-27 13:47:46

RE and corp profits were up big last yr.

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Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-27 14:08:26

Record high joblessness my friend. Record high joblessness.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-12-27 14:17:30

The population is always growing, so there’s record high nearly everything.

 
Comment by The Enrager
2016-12-27 14:30:37

Irrelevant.

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-12-27 14:32:14

Record numbers on SNAP but that’s OK because…

Shares of Warren Buffett’s firm Berkshire Hathaway soared 20% in 2016, helping to boost Buffett’s personal fortune by $12.3 billion – more than any other billionaire in the United States.

Tue, Dec 27, 2016 @ 08:02 via forbes

https://www.follownews.com/biggest-billionaire-gainer-of-2016-warren-buffetts-fortune-surges-more-than-anyone-else-in-america-2bqve

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-12-27 15:28:17

SNAP caseloads began falling in 2014 and continued falling in 2015. SNAP caseload growth slowed substantially in 2012 and 2013, and caseloads fellby about 2 percent in 2014 and another 2 percent in 2015. For more than two years, fewer people have participated in SNAP each month than in the same month one year earlier. The number of people receiving SNAP has fallen by 2.6 million people since peaking in December 2012.[4] In 42 states, the number of SNAP participants was lower in December 2015 than in December 2012.[5]

http://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/snap-costs-and-caseloads-declining

 
Comment by scdave
2016-12-27 16:51:41

Funny thing those “fact thingees”. +1 MM

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-12-27 17:26:41

Food Stamps Still Feed One in Seven Americans Despite Recovery

by Alan Bjerga
February 3, 2016, 5:00 AM EST

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-03/food-stamps-still-feed-one-in-seven-americans-despite-recovery

 
Comment by phony scandals
 
Comment by somedewd
2016-12-27 21:11:07

SNAP caseloads aren’t falling because people are doing better and don’t require assistance (see your link for increase in percentage of eligible individuals applying for/receiving assistance). They’re falling because the benefits are being cut off.

Not sure why you choose to cherry pick the data and conclusions. Not only that, but focusing on CBO projections is laughable. Their Obamacare projections were horribly wrong and studies show random walk budget projections are as good/better than what the CBO produces.

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-12-27 21:11:25

“The uneven recovery has swelled the ranks of long-term unemployed and reduced the number of people working or looking for work,”

Several reasons explain the high numbers. Governments have made it easier to sign up for the program. More than 85 percent of eligible food-stamp recipients took assistance in 2013, the most recent year of available data, compared to 70 percent in 2008. The higher sign-up rate among those qualified accounts for 8.6 million more people on food stamps — about half of the program’s total increase.

The uneven recovery has swelled the ranks of long-term unemployed and reduced the number of people working or looking for work, further boosting demand. Even for those with jobs, pay may be lower than in the past: In real dollars, SNAP recipients in 2014 had net incomes of $335 a month, the lowest since at least 1989.

 
Comment by somedewd
2016-12-28 06:42:31

phony, agree with what you’re quoting. my comments were directed at MM but got lost in the shuffle.

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-12-28 07:08:28

Gotcha

 
 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-12-27 14:39:56

+1

 
 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2016-12-27 12:58:32

interesting read today……

Infantile Nation: How Breeding Overgrown Children Begets the Nanny State

http://www.thenewamerican.com/culture/faith-and-morals/item/24902-infantile-nation-how-breeding-overgrown-children-begets-the-nanny-state

 
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