Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For July 4, 2006
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here!
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Yesterday a co-worker of mine asked innocently enough on his own, whether I thought the market was changing in other parts of the country. I already knew he holds a part time RE license, so I didn’t go whole hog bubble gloomspeak… I said that I’ve seen articles and stats that show that sales in south Florida and southern Cal are weakening.
He then voluntarily said million+ dollar homes in the Charlotte area are “just sitting”. He’s thinking that intrest rates may be putting a crimp in the max qualifying level since the high end is dropping off.
Which is interesting to hear, since I mainly just watch the more rationally priced suburban districts, which still show a normal market, and are slowly rising in value.
and just where is a rationally priced district.
Whoa! And what rationally priced surbaban districts have normal markets? Just the facts, not some buzz words
Give me zip codes of these market?
What is your definination of a normal market?
What is the per centage of a slowly rising in value? From what value to what value over what period of time?
And where to accumulate your info to make these statements?
Q: And what rationally priced surbaban districts have normal markets?
Ans: 92401-92411 San Bernardino is a tad more than “normal.”
Aw heck, pick one at random from:
http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm
See the softness in the expensive zip codes? See the continuing strength for now in the more moderately priced zips? There’s even a few with enough sales to be statistically valid showing flat or slightly negative, that’s normal too.
Your a Damm Data Mine Cote;…Nice post…
Hey, I forgot to thank you for the nice post about the changes in some aspects of the planning community. It’s unfortunate that the entire profession gets tainted by the few agitators. When I rip the profession try to remember I’m really only talking about those few rotten apples not the majority working in the trenches preserving and implementing community values.
Thanks Cote…
In a normal market, it takes a month or two to sell, except for fully cleaned and prepared homes which might sell in a week or two. As you watch there will be some quick sales, and some that sit and are reduced a few times. There should not be more than an occational REO, and normally these sit for a while since they’re kinda dirty and the typical family wants something presentable… not a “fixer upper”.
A rising market will show most pending sales on the bottom of the results when ordered by price, since buyers shop around a bit and take the most cost-effective deals. New listings should appear in the middle to the top of the list, since sellers are assuming the market is rising and they price their homes slighly above the comps.
A rational market is single digit appreciaition per year and less than 6 months’ supply of homes for sale.
Huh? A normal market is more like 6-8 months supply and a few percent above inflation appreciation where 60-90 days on market is typical.
Well, matters of degree. I would call that a “slow market”. But I agree with the basic point — a normal market requires advertising and negotiation time. The days of “multiple offers above asking” which lasted for 3 or 4 years in CA was absolutely unsupportable.
The price list you posted above just looks truly insane to me. $400/sq/ft for Compton and South Gate? I have been to those places on business [used to handle some software installs at nursing homes] — oh my gawd, what gang and graffi infested slums these places are!! Buyers have completely lost their marbles. Now they’re going to lose their shirts.
We agree. On my list did you see freakin’ Venice for $927/sq ft? Yuck. Yeah, the prices are all over the place. Me? I’m 93010.
What about $2000.+/Ft. in New York and other places ??
Camarillo eh Cote;…Know it well…Daughter went to Loyola…
Funny, we were in Santa Clara 4 days ago touring the university for my Junior in HS daughter. My wife went to Loyola. We’ve got our own college now with the the wonderful acronym; C-Sucky (CSUCI). What idiot thought that one up? (Ans; my a88hole neighbor, J Handel Evans.) Anyway CSUCI has its own unique planning theories going. Exempt from local zoning they’ve become aggressive developers to the point that the education part is taking a back seat. High density public/private partnership shared equity transit oriented development right on campus. See: http://www.csucitowncenter.com/#
Dito here Cote;….SCU has been in a working partnership with some major players for the past 20 years….@ SCU, Did you see the new Baseball Stadium ??? Did you see the High Density Complex just being completed next to it ?? Off the Blog I can tell you more…Also, I can help with off campus housing if your daughter chooses to go to SCU and wants out of the dorms @ some point + I can keep a eye on her for ya….Stay in touch…
SCSLOAN@SBCGLOBAL.NET
“rationally priced suburban markets” And which zip codes are we talking about so I can check this out?
28217, 28210 on the southwest side is where I mostly watch. 3 BR SFR’s can still be had for $125k with some haggling.
Hey Ben. Got anything special planned for post #1000 this afternoon of tomorrow at latest?
Although this is not a topic per say, I thought you would find this interesting. Perhaps you could create a topic from this, such as “condo investing gone-bust”
We rent at what use to be the Canyons Apt’s in Yorba Linda, CA. As of last November, Montecito bought and converted this 300 unit complex to condos. These condos were offered for around $450k. To date, only about 70% are sold, the rest are still apartments. Montecito is apparently struggling to sell the remaining 30%.
My wife and I noticed that at least 50% of the condos purchased were owned by investors, since they immediately rented their condo to someone else. There were so many investors wanting to rent their condos that a “rental office” has been set up as a way of accomodating them, and establish an organized way of dealing with the renters…unbelievable.
What is interesting is that as of this weekend, 2 of the condo’s have been put up for resale by the owners. This is less than 6 months after owning! I am guessing that many more 4-sale signs are to follow. These condos did not appreciate as the flippers hoped they would, and now the carrying-costs must be unbelievable: mortgage + taxes + assoc fees.
I will keep you updated as more 4-sale signs pop-up.
This is a sexist question., and I welcome posters to tell me I’m wrong and a chauvanist a**hole.
How many guys feel that it will be a while before it is time to buy, but are feeling pressure by the woman in their life to act sooner.
Do you think there are more than a few FBs out there who bought when they shouldn’t have because of their mate.
This is not to say that a lot of men are not stupid and took an exotic loan for too much house on their own.
I’m just curious what others think about this part of the bubble equation?
The important thing is that you framed the question in such a way as to make the average gal THINK you are being sensitive to their issues, whether you feel that way or not. Obviously you are married or you would have just let the question rip without the “foreplay” required in todays politically correct world.
Not all of us are like that. I’m a ruthless bitch. LOL
But I feel sorry for most guys who are p-whipped into making bad financial decisions. Im guessing that most of them do it to get her to shut up already. It’s a bad deal, guys. Hold your ground. She’s not going anywhere, despite what she says.
But, Suzanne researched this.
Funny. I did convince my husband to buy, some years ago — but I did it with numbers. We sold last year (moving to a new job), and did fine. When he asked me if we’d be buying a house once we were settled, I said “not unless prices settle too — a lot.” And that’s still where I am on the subject.
Methinks a lot of guys are looking for a scapegoat.
Guys are often afflicted with the keep-up-with-the-Joneses and one-upmanship bugs in a big way, too, and that can be a big factor in buying a house. F’r instance, I’ve got a brother in law who bought a 4-bedroom house just to have one more bedroom than anyone else in the family. They have no children (never intend to have them), so it was purely pointless. He also bought the most expensive pc he could find, just to invite all his buddies over to gaze enviously at it. Then he shut the door to that room and never returned. He doesn’t know how to use a pc. He makes a lot of his acquisitions for the same reason: he just loves to show off. Fortunately for him, he and his wife can well afford to do so. But they complain that they can’t keep their friends, because the friends are ‘jealous’ of them. Well, if they didn’t keep getting up other people’s noses with the “I’ve got more (and better) stuff than YOU’VE got” game, they’d be more likeable.
It’s not only the old, “He who dies with the most stuff, wins”, but now it is “the best stuff” too. One Aerospatiale Dauphin Helicopter trumps a whole lot of golf clubs. Gee Barbie we can afford the lease and no one in the entire neighborood has one of these. Ok Ken have at it, but I get to buy a Palm Springs condo and flip it this spring.
You are right, in many ways all of us are still kids and we want our toys. But now our “toys” are Rovers and Hummers and Jetskis and Waverunners and Quads and RVs. Our houses can be toys in a way as well with the granite countertops, stainless appliances, hardwood floors and recessed lighting. Gee Ken what about tile instead of hardwood. Sure Barbie, whatever you want. And what better way to get all of these toys than to ride that appreciation train stright to the HELOC ATM for the last 5 years. That was then. It’s the end of the line now.
My point is that we, both sexes, are equally culpable in this game
and as couples we can rationalize pert near anything.
And what better way to get all of these toys than to ride that appreciation train stright to the HELOC ATM for the last 5 years.
Translation: take out a loan with the house as collateral, thereby increasing an already enormous monthly debt service burden.
Ding! Give that Bunniii a kewpie doll!
I will require my wife to convince me with numbers before I buy. Luckily, I know she will see the wisdom in this exercise.
I am not sure it’s sexist to ask such a thing. It seems to me that most women rule the roost. Anyway, I know of a friend who just bought…I can’t believe he did this….because he wife wanted a house now. Oh brother. They just sold their old house and got out before a loss and then were going to rent. Now the wife wants a house? He is paying more than ever. I really feel bad for the guy and wish he stuck to his own wishes.
I think much of the pressure does come from women. 3 anecdotes. 1) I tried to talk my wife into selling and renting last year; when I saw the initial reaction I quickly dropped it. She’s worth the large capital loss that we’re probably about to take for that. 2) Years ago I was dating a woman who had just gotten a large chunk of change from the sale of her business. Although she didn’t have a permanent job, wasn’t sure in which city she wanted to live, wasn’t quite ready to have a family, she HAD to buy a condo. Wouldn’t even considering renting an apartment nearly identical to the condo she was buying. 3) (a mark of sanity here) A friend of mine is an economist specializing in mortgage finance. I was talking to her and she told me how she had been insisting that her daughter buy a place. I burst out with “WHAT! In this market?” before giving her a chance to finish. She then added “until she came back and told me what prices looked like anywhere within 50 miles of her job. Now I’m telling her to rent for awhile.” Even with this sane finale, note the pressure she was applying, based I would say largely on autopilot. The buzz about high prices meant nothing until she actually heard real numbers for a real location (MD suburbs of DC).
Why do you think I use the term Joe Soccer Mom in my writings? Stand up and be a real man Joe, and you know sometimes divorce is a viable option if you have an out of control wife (or husband), as opposed to being totally taken down the toilet financially.
In that scenario your going into the toilet anyway, but after a divorce you will, in time, climb out alone and be the captian of your ship.
Yeah, and I know 3 women who wanted to stay out of the market, and 3 men who bought based on a “prices will always go up! The Bay Area is different!” mentality. Anecdotes are meaningless.
Hmmm, I know I pressured my husband into buying because I wanted a house. However, we chose and brought our house based solidly on the NUMBERS - we can afford this place with a hand tied behind our hands. If we had gone with the house he wanted however - *shudder* we would have been upside down in weeks.
I really think that this question is slightly unfair - simply because (usually) women tend to be the nesters, and men tend to be the investors. If there is a woman who really wants to nest, and her husband is reluctant to invest (because, and quoite rightly, he sees that the market sucks) well…. there’s an issue waiting to develop. However, if the woman is an investor/nester - there is less chance of her pushing them into an unrealistic house.
It’s not about sex, it’s about financial intelligence.
I must say that even though my wife is anxious to buy, this is mainly due to problems with our current apt. She understands the numbers and knows things are way overpriced. She is just depressed that it could be a year or two before things are reasonable, let alone how long before a bottom!
But when we discuss this with couple friends the woman usually disregard any talk of the economics. They don’t seem to care that a house could lose half it’s value if we bought now. It’s all about the emotions of owning.
I was really asking a question, not making a statement. I was curious if this was more universal or my experience was simply anecdotal.
My advice to a seller in today’s market? Throw in a top-condition ’60s muscle car, free. Not talking Barrett-Jackson, but a straight, sweet, fully restored car. Of course, this gimmick shouldn’t fool anyone who follows Ben’s blog. But it might snag some husband who might never otherwise get the bad-ass car of his dreams. And Momma gets her nest.
Make mine an Austin-Healey or an Avanti, please. Where do I sign?
Agent whispers, “That can be arranged.”
Just heard on the local news this morning - a homeowner in one of the ritzier neighborhoods here in St. Paul has had no luck finding anyone to even look at his house - so he’s offering a brand-new Chevy Aveo to the buyer. His realtor advised it as a way to call attention to the house. But like you say, offering a muscle car or a nice classic car would’ve drawn a lot more attention than a cheapy Aveo!
How about throwing in the new VIPER, 550 hp, 0 to 60 in 4 seconds, plus other goodies. Base Price $89,000?
Recall that this was the basic theme of Century 21’s infamous “Suzanne researched this” commercial. Apparently a lot of men nationwide needed to be told that it would all work out ok.
In my case, I (wife) had to strongly convince husband to sell and rent. He finally relented because I shoved numbers, reports, & analysis in his face, day after day. It’s why I’m here, although he no longer needs to be convinced of the pending downturn. Today’s battle is waiting. He wants to wait no more than a year or so. I told him in 2004 that it would take at least 3-5 years, and it seems I might be a few years early on that as well. We still argue because I’m willing to rent forever, if that’s what it takes.
I started selling my house last August and my silly wife wanted to start the sale at $473,000 (which we did), I wanted to start the sale at $334,000. By December, my wife reported that her psychic told her to sell the house before the endo of the year or bad things would happen. The marked imploded so much we ended up selling for $295,000. I know if we would have started at $334,000 we would have sold it. We still made a lot of money and are living the good as rentors of a huge house. I leanred to ignor my wife when making these decisions. Now she wants to buy a home for $500,000. Over my dead body!!!
I can tell you that my husband is 2 for 2 in this arena. He only convinced me to buy the first time with the promise of getting a dog (God rest his soul–the dog, not my husband) We lost 18% on the first one, but made out well on the 2nd. I can honestly say I have never wanted to own a home. But we never wanted kids, either. Maybe that’s the difference.
Latest consumer liquidity in Brazil/America :
http://www.xanga.com/russwinter
I like reading your stuff.
Russ rocks. In the fall of 2002, he and others on SI created a “Mother of All Buying Opportunities” list for the stock market. He’s a bear but at that time, even bears (smart ones) had to be buying stocks. Some of them were trading at 50% of CASH and less.
Russ, I also read your blog, but you have to forgive me for not giving you any eprops! I just don’t have the time to respond to more than Ben’s blog. But you have a knack =)
Just doing my morning coffee browsing:
Quote from the Mortg Bank Association’s report of last week:
“The group’s seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications decreased 7.5% to 1,356.0. A year earlier the index stood at 2,529.2.”
…is what I intended to highlight. Still working on my cite block-skills.
I wonder if the term “on the flip side” will go out of favor.
Txchick posted this one at the base of the last bit bucket:
http://phoenix.craigslist.org/rfs/178230459.html
Ha ha ha — Gee, maybe just a little bit petualant, there? Wonder how many crank messages he’s gotton now while on vacation.
Too bad there’s no MLS number or address, would be interesting to see what Mr bigshot owns-10-more-important-houses-in-Colorado ultimately sells this for.
Gee, does anyone get a clue that this is what happens when you shoehorn everyone with a pulse into a house? Who is left then to buy at ridiculous prices? Just the roaches, I guess. What a guy.
so a question for the masses here. he says for a lease/purchase, 1/2 applies to the purchase price. Is this typical? the way I work it, I think it works out that you’re paying down faster that way than with 30 fixed. Monthly’s a bit higher, and no tax bene’s, but then again, no prop tax, etc.
Corner lot with 25k in desert landscaping in front.
I don’t know why, but it sounds funny.
From Seattle Craigslist:
—————-
$365000 - **REDUCED over 70k!…I know mkt is soft & am willing…
to work with you…yes, I know the market is soft now and that is why I have reduced price by 70K (should have taken the offer I got in May, but greed can sneak up on you when you least expect it. At the time my realtor said there was no bubble and to hold out for a full price offer). Anyways, now I just need to unload this…not making any money off this deal and need to get out of my arm. I just can’t afford the adjusted payments, can’t qualify to refi and want to avoid foreclosue. Yes…the same story as everyone out there I am just honest enough to tell it like it is…
Home is updated and clean with 3 bd 2 ba and large lot I put over 35K materials only into updates. (no…not subdividable - I already checked with the city) Will gladly e-mail pics and more info.
Realtors…save your time…not enough equity to use one. By the way …I guess there really was a bubble after all
Why don’t I just wait and buy it from the bank? That way I cut out the middleman.
Ah yes… the sweet sweet sight of blood starting to trickle down the streets!
At least this one is smart enough to blame himself.
This guy is desperate and isn’t hiding it:
http://seattle.craigslist.org/see/rfs/178028157.html
Seattle (King Co) inventory has increased by 15% from May 7 to Jul 4. Not a Phoenix or SD “meltdown” by any means but a far cry from last summer’s 1 hour on the market and bidding wars “mania”.
The bad news is that the house where I rent (from a flipper) went up in value from $600K to $900K in just 3 months (zillow). This was due to a bunch of CA equity locusts buying a lot of high end properties in the immediate area (Madison Park).
At least for this area, the spring buying season was quite strong. High end sales are keeping Seattle prices marching upwards…
I have heard that CA equity locusts are paying “cash” for homes in the $700K to $900K range.
As a result of the CA infestation I don’t expect any “pain” for about another year up here in rain town.
Does anyone have an idea why the California equity folks are still paying all cash in Seattle, but have gone missing in Hawaii for months now? Or maybe they’re not paying all cash and nobody is talking yet?
I wonder about this too. I live in the Bay Area and have heard of not one single friend/acquaintance/co-worker/friend-of-friend story of someone moving to Seattle (lots of Southwest moves, though, btw). Maybe it’s a SoCal thing? Or are “Californians” the new “Asians” that will save any RE market from tanking in perpetuity with their “all-cash” deals?
Here’s yet more evidence of what great market Dallas is, and this is just the beginning. This reminds me of 1990.
http://dallas.craigslist.org/rfs/178276890.html
Seven short sales in Dallas on the same listing. This is just the beginning. This is going to get so ugly.
Oh Waitress! A round of painful ass-poundings for the Dallas Flippers over at the corner table PLEASE!
And don’t forget the Tabasco Sauce!
LOL
I was in Dallas a few weeks ago and was surprised at the price of homes. Everytime I leave Ca I take a drive and try to put in perspective how out of whack my states home prices are.
Flying into Dallas I noticed a lot of new development - even though I talked to a few realtors and locals who claimed “they are running out of buildable land, blah blah..”- I think they thought I was another Ca sucker looking to invest in TX!
TxChick,
Do you think we can expect it in tucson ?
Sweet house. Are those the same trees in the living room as in the front yard?
Original list price was $1,150,00 - now $998,000:
http://bakersfield.rapmls.com/scripts/mgrqispi.dll?APPNAME=Bakersfield&PRGNAME=MLSPropertyDetail&ARGUMENTS=-N375604424,-N143860,-N,-A,-N3656292
Hasn’t had a daily high below 96 degrees for a month and unlikely to have one for another 2 months. 1/4th acre lot, $270/sq ft & Bakersfield. No thanks, I’ll wait for the half price special next summer.
But its a dry heat!
I imagine the dry heat is being turned up under David Crisp about now. Watch for the jet to take off soon for any Carribean island that has bank privacy laws and no extradition treaty.
Local rumor around town - The FBI visited their offices last Tuesday. This is from two sources a banker and a title company employee. The other rumor is David Murdoch’s company - Castle and Cooke - is going to fire them from sitting his developments. They think they are ready to flame out and don’t want to be associated with them. Both could be untrue - however, where there is smoke…
Go to their site, read the news articles, the realty insder publications. ZZZZBest is so freakin’ obvious here. Why am I (we) the only who see this for what it is? The jet, the bodyguards, the quarter million dollar CSUB sports donation, his age, the unlikely partnerships, multiple overlapping companies, internal financing,… All fall down, go boom? No, all blow up, go pop.
I’m not surprised by the rumor. I’m only surprised it has taken so long.
I’m raising the bullshit flag Robert! You wouldn’t buy that POS even at half off and you know it! Quit teasing the sellers!
I drove through Bakersfield this spring on the way from Cambria to Las Vegas. Hadn’t been through there in years, and from what I saw, I’m glad I didn’t need to stop for gas. It’s a dump with pumps, that should be the only clue you need.
Let’s all watch Crisp and Cole go up in flames.
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/hou/178238060.html “I’ll rent your house: 1 year paid in advance!” — if this isn’t a sign of the times I don’t know what is…
This is a great idea, IMO. Lets the renter troll for the best deal, from his/her easy chair. “Please send me detailed photos. Expected response is so great I don’t want to use a lot of gas driving to hopeless prospects. If squirrels are on the property, please arrange for their removal prior to showing; or vacuum-seal them and stick ‘em in the freezer. Please also advise whether landlord will pay all or only part of utilities.”
I hereby submit Bozeman, MT as one of the most bubbly towns in the Northern Rockies. Note that Bozeman is home to 12,000 students of Montana State University, so that will skew things some. Still, check out the stats.
(from City Data):
Population 2000: 27,500
Est. Population 2004: 32,400
Household Income 2000: $32,000
Median home value 2000: $137,000
It’s been growing fast, so we’ll give them 35,000 population today (probably excluding students). Now hop on to Realtor.com.
Total props for sale: 1,240
SFRs for sale: 746
SFR pop/listing ratio: 1:47
Median asking price: $350,000
This is Montana.. not too many good paying jobs. Bozeman is an awesome location and it’s almost true that “everyone wants to live here” (everyone in Montana, at least), but I’m flabbergasted by the price run-up. Cheapest house in town now is $125,000 (and that’s about right for a 35k-40k salary).
Even better, the bedroom community of Belgrade, just down the road:
Census 2000: 5,700
Estimated 2006: 9,000
House value 2000: $110,000
Total inventory today: 374
SFR inventory today: 271
Median SFR asking price: $240,000
Unfortunately, sales data in Montana are hard to come by, so I can’t say what’s going on now. Can we get a report from our local Bozeman rep?
Here’s a little more. I found this on a realtor’s webpage:
The median sale price of a home on a lot smaller than an acre in Gallatin County jumped 10 percent in a single month, reaching a new high of $233,000, according to October sales figures provided by the Gallatin Association of Realtors.
That’s up from $211,250 in September and $190,000 in April.
…
“We’re always in a cycle and real estate right now is in a seller’s market,” he said. “I anticipate at some point we’re going to see more of a buyer’s market. … So far I’ve not seen anything that’s indicated it is becoming more of a buyer’s market or that demand has decreased at all.”
Marty Bakken, a broker with RE/MAX Realty Group, said demand has been tremendous.
“The home prices just continue to go up,” Bakken said. “There’s just not enough inventory. There’s so much demand and we’re so far behind.”
Bakken, who’s been in real estate sales for nearly 32 years, said he’s seen a few “bumps” in the market along the way and finds the current run-up in prices “a little bit nerve-wracking, frankly. What would happen if we got an uptick of 2 percent (in mortgage rates)?”
But for now, the only direction in home prices has been up.
In Park County, the median sale price of a home on less than an acre was $134,900 last month, compared to $110,000 in April, multiple listing reports show.
Emphasis mine.
Park County includes the town of Livingston, 20-30 miles away from Bozeman. I know a number of people who have been buying there and commuting to avoid the insanity in Bozeman.
Quotes are from here:
Home prices continue to soar
OK, sorry, one more. Montana Craigslist is fairly new, but the listings have started to take off lately. Here’s a nice one. Look at the pictures. Nothing like a little illegal activity to make your listing stand out!
Seeley Lake Home
What’s the illegal activity? Feeding the moose?
TXC. Its the stolen utilty cable spool kitchen table. And using outdoor furniture as indoor furniture is a misdemeanor in Montana.
“…using outdoor furniture as indoor furniture is a misdemeanor in Montana.”
You’re serious? I’d have thought Montana to be the last of the almost-truly-free states, after Alaska. Are there any instances of that nutty regulation being enforced, or could it be an unrepealed holdover from wild-west days?
Sorry to tell you Chip, but Alaska is far from that. I spent a summer checking it out as a potential home. The feds own 90%+ of the state. Government decides everything and the congress critters get reelected by pounding their chest about the pork-politics they are so good at. If you remember the locals almost threw the feds out a couple of decades ago. But uncle sam has cleverly kept enough military on the bases there to effectively be the majority of residents.
Don’t know about Montana.
That’s too funny. The TVs in the kitchen because it’s the only room you’ll be able to afford to heat in the winter. BTW, that’s a deer, not a moose.
A buddy of mine lives out in Three Forks - I go out there 3 or 4 times a year.
A whole bunch of the new construction between Bozeman and Belgrade is along the interstate. Buying next to a busy highway that has freight trains running alongside while there is all that open space around just doesn’t make sense.
Taht said, the prices in Manhattan, Montana don’t approach the prices in Manhattan, New York.
Whoa — a never-lived-in condo directly on the Intracoastal Waterway in east central Florida just reduced to $80K below what it was bought for from the developer. Tax records confirm this. The tide is going out.
Great news for the FL bubble popping. Way to go Chip. Give us more stories of flopped flippers
I’m trading emails with a bagholder who is trying to sell their bag for close to 1 mill.
http://southjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/176901455.html
According to them they are fully rented this season and will take in $32K.
Is my math wrong or does this house have to come down to around 300k to even begin to make sense?
According to the Yahoo map, that’s not even directly on the water, but several blocks from the beach. So supposedly they are taking in $4-6K per month, depending on the length of the “season.” Guess those are Northern prices, because even $300K would seem way too high down here in Florida.
Chip we have basically 10-12 week season.
Taxes around 6k which brings us down to 26k income with insurance, utilities, yet to be subtracted.
Never could figure out why people consider that an investment. Terrible numbers.
Things do not seem to be going well at all re the Israel-Hamas thing. Wonder if this could be the exogenous event some have been considering a biggie for torpedoing the market.
That’s one, but I think N. Korea’s pretty big as well.
Could be, but I think Israel is capable of causing far greater mayhem. N. Korea is simply extorting us; the Israelies could start yet another war. Interesting timing, too. Dawnal might want to speculate on that.
It’s too bad the Palestinians didn’t elect the people they were “supposed” to. That didn’t work, so they’ll get the crap bombed out of them. Reminds me in a vague way of the Quebec secession vot many years ago — read somewhere that the Canadian army was prepared to invade to prevent secession if the vote went that way.
The decks are all stacked. What’s important is to watch the eyes and actions of the ones who know where the cards are.
Hey Waaahoo - offer this flopper $100K and see how hard they crap their shorts!!!! LOL
Update from Bozeman,
I’ve been tracking a house that was first posted as a FSBO for ~ 1 month (no action), then listed on the MLS for $579k for 3-4 weeks, now listed at $539k (http://www.prumt.com/ShowFeatures.asp?MLS=129299). This is a nice little house with very motivated sellers (already moved into a new, more expensive home and this place has been vacant since March). SHould be an interesting gauge of current market conditions.
There are a ton of completely remodeled older homes on the market, many of which were originally listed and sold within the past couple of years–so it seems the flippers are evacuating. The Gallatin Valley MLS is up to 1229 residential listings (houses and condos), with a total housing stock of ~30,000 in the valley. I’m guessing there are at least as many FSBOs as houses under contract or with contingent offers on the MLS, so we’ve got about 4% of all residential units currently on the market.
Apparently price reductions aren’t enough. This Craigslist ad says the kitchen is so nice, you’ll want to have sex in it:
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/nva/rfs/178322360.html
(”Good heavens, Stanley, not on the granite!”)
Housing undervalued now, but maybe not for long
Fort Worth Star-Telegram
By Mitchell Schnurman
July 05, 2006
Finally, it may be Texas’ turn for a housing boom — or at least a boomlet.
The white-hot housing market has begun to fade in much of the country, with median home prices sliding and the number of building permits falling. Both indicators are on the rise in Texas, where home construction has remained robust through the decade but prices have lagged behind the national averages by a good margin.
Nationwide, building permits have declined for four months in a row, a sign that home starts are likely to fall. In the Fort Worth-Arlington area, building permits have grown at double-digit rates in six of the past eight months.
And total building permits for the past year are 21 percent higher than in 2005.
Even home prices, traditionally kept down by Texas’ ample supply of land and home builders, are gaining ground.
Most intriguing, in my view, is the growing interest from outsiders. It may mean that a long-due correction is under way, with Texas poised to benefit.
Realtors have talked frequently about California real-estate investors cashing out West Coast holdings and buying properties here, often sight unseen. Petersen says people and businesses are also moving to Texas, attracted by the low cost of living and strong economy (job growth was up 3.1 percent last year, the state’s best showing since 2000).
Last year, more than 50,000 people moved here from other states, an increase of nearly 35 percent from 2004.
California and Florida have the highest concentration of overvalued markets, with 17 of the top 20. At the other end of the spectrum is Texas, with eight of the 10 most ‘undervalued’ cities.
Houses in Bryan-College Station are selling for 24 percent below their expected value; next in line are Dallas and Fort Worth, each at almost 19 percent below, and Houston, at 16 percent below.
Limited price appreciation is a major reason that foreclosures are a growing problem in North Texas; unlike in other cities, home values haven’t climbed enough to let cash-strapped borrowers tap their equity or sell their homes to cover their costs.
The Texas real-estate bargains were the subject of a front-page story in The Wall Street Journal last month — not because prices were so low but because they still weren’t attracting a swarm of investors.
Some Californians have bought property, in part because Bryan-College Station had topped the undervalued list, but local experts said prices are unlikely to take off.
Nevertheless, the publicity is a good sign, recognition of the value in Texas housing. Over the long term, the price differences among many parts of the country will narrow because of declining values in overheated markets and improvements in the price laggards.
Historically, a median overvaluation of 34 percent is a signal for a correction, leading to a decline of 17 percent over the next three to four years, the report says. But those are median numbers only.
In early 1985, Fort Worth homes were 54 percent overvalued, according to Global Insight, and they declined 16 percent from 1986 to 1989. Homes in Austin, 48 percent overvalued in 1985, fell 30 percent from ‘86 to ‘90.
This time, Texas prices are poised to move in the opposite direction. The question is, how much and for how long?
http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/business/14969084.htm