A Wave Of High-End Units, Creating A Glut
A report from the San Francisco Business Times in California. “In 2016, around 5,000 units were completed in San Francisco, the highest level in decades. Will prices keep dropping? With supply on the rise, rents in San Francisco fell 2.1 percent in the past year, down to $3,390 per month for a one-bedroom, according to ApartmentList. That’s still the highest in the country, but a significant slowdown compared to the double-digit price growth of the past few years. The outlook for 2017 is uncertain: The city could see a continued cooldown, a major downturn or a rebound. What happens will affect billions of dollars in housing investment going forward.”
The Chicago Tribune in Illinois. “After experiencing a painful surge in rents during the last six years, Chicago tenants finally are getting a break. Rents have dropped in areas of downtown where there has been massive new construction of luxury high-rise apartment buildings, and rents are rising only modestly throughout the metropolitan area, according to Axiometrics. The trend in the Chicago area follows the same pattern as the rest of the nation. After years of record-setting new apartment construction, rents have begun to moderate. But Chicago’s slowdown is more pronounced.”
“Axiometrics analysts attributed the weaker rental market in Chicago to slow job growth, which is suppressing apartment demand at a time when new construction has produced a huge supply of rental units. n a report after the third quarter, Chicago-based Appraisal Research Counselors said the number of rental units in Chicago’s downtown had increased 150 percent since mid-2005. There were 6,880 units under construction downtown this fall. In 2015 and 2016, about 3,500 new units have become available each year, about double the annual average over the last 24 years.”
From Michigan Live. “Plans for a new 12-story student apartment high-rise on South U are headed to the Ann Arbor City Council for approval. The project includes 19 four-bedroom units, 17 five-bedroom units and 7 six-bedroom units geared toward U-M students. The apartments are expected to be priced from $5,500 to $8,000 per unit, according to plans. The four-bed units range in size from 1,334 to 1,581 square feet, while the five-bed units go from 1,503 to 1,898, and the six-bed units are 2,147 square feet.”
“Commissioner Alex Milshteyn raised the question of housing supply and demand, asking the developer to comment on whether there might be an oversupply of this type of housing geared toward students. Sean Havera, a representative for the development, said the development team looked closely at that and that’s why there aren’t one- and two-bedroom units, which are less in demand and the last to be rented in student housing developments. ‘There’s still a very big availability of those,’ he said.”
The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “A recent national report found further evidence of Houston’s apartment glut. Real Page, Carrollton, TX-based technology firm, found that Houston’s high-rise apartment rents declined the most out of the 50 largest U.S. markets surveyed. Houston saw a 7.1 percent decrease in high-rise apartment rents, the steepest nationally. A wave of high-end units are coming to the market, as job growth slows and weakens, creating a glut.”
“San Francisco, one the most expensive markets in the country, also saw a drop in rent prices with a 6.2 percent drop annually. The firm suggested that the pricing in the Bay Area may have been inflated in recent years. The average rent is still $3,400 a month, despite the drop in prices.”
‘The city could see a continued cooldown, a major downturn or a rebound. What happens will affect billions of dollars’
Seeing as how the REIC thought this rocket was going to the moon, I’d guess major downturn.
‘Rents have dropped in areas of downtown where there has been massive new construction of luxury high-rise apartment buildings…The trend in the Chicago area follows the same pattern as the rest of the nation’
Remarkable difference to just 6 months ago. Very sanguine reporting considering what’s at stake.
BTW, the sad pandas were out in force on the last posts’ comments. Here’s a suggestion:
‘Do You Suffer From Trump Derangement Syndrome?’
‘The country is in the throes of a major epidemic, with no known cure and some pretty scary symptoms. It’s called Trump Derangement Syndrome, or TDS, and it’s rapidly spreading from the point of origin – the political class – to the population at large.’
‘In the first stage of the disease, victims lose all sense of proportion. The president-elect’s every tweet provokes a firestorm, as if 140 characters were all it took to change the world.’
Hint: you are overreacting. Everyday. It’s not that big a deal and stop soiling yourself hour after hour on my blog.
Don’t forget the frenetic, spastic stamping of little feet and pumping of tiny fists as those thus afflicted screech even more shrilly and disconcordantly than their political false idol, Crooked Hillary.
Yeah, that’s about half of Facebook and 99% of Reddit, LOLZ.
Their engagement with enragement is causing their derangement.
Then there’s CraterRage.
It would take a heart of stone to see their extreme distress and caterwauling, and not laugh.
The MSM still has their hold, despite all the evidence of their bias and corruption. I continually hear sad pandas where I live (a place that voted 80%+ for HRC) say exactly the same thing “the next 4 years are going to be scary”. When I ask them “why?”, they don’t really have much of an answer, because they are robots…simply echoing what they are hearing other people say.
It’s like an echo from the election that keeps going.
“It’s like an echo from the election that keeps going.”
and going, and going, and going…
The only winner here is me and I’m living in your head rent free.
Well that’s all true, but after seeing him acting as “president” since Nov 8, shouldn’t give any confidence that things will be different or better.
I am glad he won, but…….
I am glad Killary lost, but I am very sad Trump won…
Drain my ass, Trump is republican Obama, no much different. He refilled the swamp with his own swamp dwellers - corporate Goldman Sachs mafia and billionaire oligarchs. You are fools, take off you rose glasses already. Klinton lost, I am glad she did, but c’mon, Trump is not much better. He will not make America great again, he is just an extension of the Republican policies like more government, more military spendings, more privacy violation, more money printing, more debt.
Boo hoo. It is pretty sure you do not know what he will do or how his picks will behave. Assuming that he will do the opposite of what he said he wanted to do, and then convicting him based on your assumption is spectacularly lame.
I am pretty sure I know what he will do, he said it many times. Prosecute Killary? Not so much, we “owe her a gratitude for the tremendous job she did”. Build a wall? Nah… a fence will do just fine. Drain the swamp? Just to fill it with other swamp dwellers. Repeal 0care, nah, lets just “overhaul”. Fat ugly bubble under 0bama - “wealth increase” under Trump. He backpedalled on most if not all of his promises. He surrounded himself with the same globalist establishment that he belongs to in the first place. I don’t know what he will do? I don’t know about you, but it is pretty clear to me…
And he lives comfortably in your empty skull, rent free.
Now go fetch Mr. Trump a beer. And be quick about it.
What “lives in your empty skull” jr. housing analyst is catering prices that have never happened over the last 3 years. You are the biggest troll on this blog as well as zero hedge posting same nonsense on each topic. The housing prices have been rising for the last 3 years, hello? Take off your tin foil hat, it is time to wake up. Just because you post under five different names doesn’t make you trolling anymore valid. Now go lick trumps boots, it seems you are really good at it…
And fetch me a bag of Cheetos while you’re at it. And be quick about it.
Santa Maria, CA Housing Prices Crater 5% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/santa-maria-ca/home-values/
‘catering prices that have never happened over the last 3 years’
Just read the comments, eh?
Santa Maria, CA Housing Prices Grow 8.4% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/santa-maria-ca/home-values/
Hmm…might be time for a name change. I’ve been mostly agnostic on this issue.
sleepless
HA took a variant of your long-time handle, eh?
Not cool, HA.
Oh, whoops—I’m so used to visually skipping over HA’s posts that my eye didn’t even see the “Grow” bit (rather than the usual “Crater”)!
’sleepless’, my apologies; now change your handle, as ’sleepless_near_seattle’ has been posting under that name for many years here, and it’s confusing. My advice is also to stop stop reading the troll’s posts; your blood pressure will go down, and the blog will be quieter for it. The JT extension will help ignore him, except for his frequent use of new handles.
Pretty sure I was the first with that nickname theme from 2004-ish, but for awhile there was someone going by sleeplessinseattle or sleepless_in_seattle…
for awhile there was someone going by sleeplessinseattle or sleepless_in_seattle…
Oh! I thought from the name similarity that you were sleepless_in_seattle, and you had relocated to near Portland! Apparently not?
A heartfelt thank-you to the weak hands who gifted me their physical precious metals and mining stocks at the recent lows.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-29/gold-surges-above-1150-35-billion-bid-bitcoin-dips
‘the number of rental units in Chicago’s downtown had increased 150 percent since mid-2005. There were 6,880 units under construction downtown this fall. In 2015 and 2016, about 3,500 new units have become available each year, about double the annual average over the last 24 years’
I posted a report recently saying downtown Chicago apt/condo construction was double the absorption rate.
‘House prices and sales in the Chicago metropolitan area are forecast to be the lowest of all major U.S. cities and their suburbs in 2017. The forecast, by Realtor.com, places the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin Metropolitan Statistical Area last out of the 100 metropolitan areas surveyed.’
‘This sluggish growth is a response to high property prices, according to Mark Glennon, who runs Wirepoints, an Illinois-based business information service. “I would say this largely reflects the exodus of taxpayers, employers and the tax base out of the state,” Glennon told Illinois Business Daily.’
“It’s the response to high property taxes,” Glennon said of the Chicago area’s bottom ranking. “Property prices and sales go up and down based on the costs associated with maintaining a house. Suburbs of Chicago, particularly the property taxes, are astronomical, with south suburbs and McHenry County at 4 percent or 5 percent. It is suicidal.”
‘The south suburbs are in a death spiral, and property taxes are a key reason, Glennon said. Many municipalities have rates of well over 5 percent, and one, Ford Heights, has a rate of close to 11 percent. “Rates, indeed, have surpassed what any rational person could defend,” Glennon said. “The numbers provide a stark warning to all communities that are heavily taxed.”
I can attest that the property taxes are astronomical in the Chicago suburbs. Even though the asking prices on some nice homes have come down in suburbs a little father out (not exurbs), the taxes are a deal breaker. A 3,000 sq. ft. can have taxes starting around $14,000 a year. The prices haven’t come down near enough to compensate for the tax bills that will never go away, and are much more likely to rise in the future than fall.
A 3,000 sq. ft. can have taxes starting around $14,000 a year.
So why haven’t the citizens of Ill-a-noy voted for a Prop 13 or a TABOR? Or are they waiting for their property taxes to go up even higher?
You do realize that both Prop 13 and TABOR happened when…
Both CA and CO were red states.
Insane public unions wielding massive power and influence didn’t exist. And did not have democrat puppets on every level of government.
Actually, Colorado had a Democrat governor when TABOR was passed by the voters.
You have to remember that Colorado is socially liberal, but fiscally conservative. It’s been that way for quite some time.
And Jerry Brown was the California governor when proposition 13 passed in the late 70s.
Quit mansplaining, you two!
Prop 13 was an issue initative passed by the voters.
Passed without any help Jerry Brown.
And it passed by a huge margin.
In fact, Governor Brown was a harsh critic of the measure at the time.
Like a said - CA was a red state at the time.
a red state that elected Jerry Brown in ‘74 and ‘78
Maryland property tax assessments mailed: http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/real-estate/bs-bz-property-assessments-increase-20161228-story.html
No wonder politicians are so eager to boost house prices - an automatically increasing, unvoted-on tax, 6.4% increase for residential, 14% for commercial. Also, politicians own houses.
Property owners who merely use their residence are richer according to the “economic experts”; yet curiously they now have less money. “You have less cash, but you’re actually richer because your house is worth more. No, really, we’re being totally straight with you.”
Modern financial advice is perhaps one of the biggest conjobs in history. When politicians, Wall Street and the television are telling you to do things that are not in your best interest, eventually you wise up and lose faith in those… “institutions” for lack of a better word. It could be this is already happening, see the last election. Michael Moore’s noted statement indicating Trump would win stated that, “They see that the elites who ruined their lives hate Trump, corporate America hates Trump, Wall Street hates Trump, the career politicians hate trump, the media hates Trump … the enemy of my enemy is who I’m voting for.”
So much whining about college costs. No one takes responsibility for their lame choices.
All students enrolling at the CSU pay the systemwide Tuition Fee which is currently $5,472 per academic year for undergraduate students enrolling in more than 6 units per term and $3,174 for undergraduates enrolling in 6 or fewer units.Oct 24, 2016
grants for poor kids…
city college is free if you are poor.
Add to that a mandatory fees for Transportation Access($90/semester) and Health($90/semester). You are required to take twelve credits/semester to remain on your parents health insurance. At the end of the years you have paid $5832. That’s $243/ credit. You think that’s cheap?
Reality Check:
Because books are so expensive I’m going to go without health insurance and take only six credits while I work 30 hours/week.
So for a year it’s $3174 + $360 (Parking decal and Health) = $3534. Then there’s books for four classes for the year, three credits each, and computer access codes for online courses. Conservatively that will run $500. The grand total is:
$4034 or $336/credit.
That’s cheap? As George Carlin use to say: “There’s a reason…”why only 14% graduate after six years from community colleges.
Did I mention the FAFSA loans they take out for 8-11% ?
We have gamed this generation and right now the loans outstanding are three trillion dollars.
P.S.
You are actually going to be enrolled in 4 credit classes for upper division math, biology and chemistry courses. (Don’t forget the lab fees !!)
* *
The lending institutions made money hand over fist with this benevolent financial model and the young TRUSTED them.
While I agree lenders and “higher education” institutions made out like bandits, no one made us sign up for a college degree. Just like no one forced idiots “investors” into 3/1 ARMs in 2007 on $750k crap shacks worth $125k at auction. The biggest farce is college as prerequisite for success. I know plumbers, mechanics, HVAC, other tradesman making hella more money with better hours than college graduates. Unfortunately, those same individuals piss it away each week and are therefore working paycheck to paycheck, but so are most IT folks.
Don’t even think about the post-graduate money and time suck; most won’t ever break even on the opportunity cost of earning a paycheck earlier + increased debt load.
You nailed it. There is the lost opportunity cost that comes with the time spent getting the degree. And even a “cheap” rate like CSU doesnt factor in all the nicks and cuts of books, transportation, cost and - crazy for some to think about - the QUALITY of the product you are getting. For many degrees its probably sorely lacking at CSU. Unfortunately many employers wont give someone the time of day unless they have that sheepskin which has become nothing more than a glorified and expensive high school diploma. Masters and above can be huge wastes of time and money - in technical fields you can learn much more relevant material on the job while getting p.a.i.d!
Don’t even think about the post-graduate money and time suck; most won’t ever break even on the opportunity cost of earning a paycheck earlier + increased debt load.
The answer is to study STEM and get your graduates degrees paid for by NSF fellowships. Of course, it’s necessary to spend your undergraduate years cracking the books at a good college, not stumbling around in an alcoholic stupor at a party school.
And those that go the stem route come out the other side as tax paying conservatives, leaving you and your ilk to spend more time in the ghettos “community organizing”. King of the ‘tards, quite the title.
+1 Mikey. Post-grad STEM still lands six figures.
It does appear that there are a disturbing number of STEM people with crackpot right wing fantasy-based views, but fortunately it’s a minority of the people that I’m talking about.
“It does appear that there are a disturbing number of STEM people with crackpot right wing fantasy-based views”
This message has been brought to you by The Southern Poverty Law Center.
Depends on the STEM degree and time spent getting it.
Engineer with 4 years college /1-2 years post-grad who can get $75-$125k stable throughout 30+ year career; numbers pencil out easily.
Dentist with 4 years college / 4 years dental school who can get a $150k stable throughout 30+ year career; numbers only pencil out if have minimal student loan debt. I know a dentist just finishing with $500k student loan debt for 8 years of college/dental school. That’s a $2245/month mortgage for the next 30 years. Dentist-in-a-box might get $125-150k/year, similar to pharmacist, less than nurse practitioner/PA. Despite earning potential, will always be a debt donkey.
Surgeon with 4 years college / 4 years medical school / 5-7 years residency training / 1-2 year fellowship training who can get $225-$300k stable throughout 30+ year career depending upon city; tough to make that pencil out. Don’t start making money until age 35. Basically lost 10-12 years of earning potential in another STEM or finance field.
I’d advocate any engineering degree, financial quant degree. Only benefit of healthcare would be job security to help payoff debt donkey loans.
“It does appear that there are a disturbing number of STEM people with crackpot right wing fantasy-based views, but fortunately it’s a minority of the people that I’m talking about.”
Osama bin Laden had an engineering degree.
Only benefit of healthcare would be job security
Seems like a pretty big benefit.
Had dinner the other night with a couple of surgeons and a pediatrician.
They seemed to be doing just fine (understatement of the year).
http://www.bestmedicaldegrees.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Deceptive-Salary-of-Doctors.jpg
http://www.bestmedicaldegrees.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Deceptive-Salary-of-Doctors.jpg
Let’s see…where to pick this apart:
1. Not everyone pays back their student loans over 20 years. If you are making $150k+ out of the gate, you can pay them back quickly. I paid back my few tens of thousands quickly, and I started earning 1/3 that number…that dramatically reduces the $387k of interest on student loan debt. Yes, I know, I didn’t take into account the cost of capital and all that.
2. Speaking of which, they don’t take into consideration the ability for the doctors to invest their excess earnings…even though they are working more hours, they have more to invest than a teacher. That return on capital cuts both ways.
3. Teachers don’t get social security (at least in CA)…gotta subtract that from the teacher’s side.
4. The federal tax rate on $203k is actually about $50k (25%), not 28%…you know, that pesky progressive tax system (paying lower taxes on first dollars than last dollars).
Bottom line, neither doctors, nor teachers get paid enough. However, to believe that teachers are better off is silly.
The price of textbooks is scandalous. The upper edge price of limited run textbooks when I was in school *cough* years ago is now… what it costs to rent the book for a semester. Buying new, throw on an extra 80 to 100 dollars.
It’s all leveraged. Debt-driven.
A good education is a key to a better life, more prosperous more options. “How much you willing to pay for it?” Life saving drugs even more obviously are needed: “How much you willing to pay for it?”
Insurance and debt hides the costs, very clever to those collecting the skim. Debt-fuelled growth, uh huh. Preying on the young, brilliant plan, PTB.
I call it the war on “marginal benefit” - the difference in your “benefit” between what you pay and the benefit you get. With debt and insurance, that difference, “consumer surplus” is whittled away by companies with the covert backing of the PTB, using insurance and debt.
The price of textbooks is scandalous.
Reminds me of the meme with the liberal-looking professor with the caption over it:
Complains about the destructive effects of capitalism.
Requires $600 worth of textbooks for the course
A tale of two housing markets (for the 1%, and the proles). Heckova job, Bernanke and Yellen.
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2016/12/a-tale-of-two-housing-markets-hot-and.html
Just repeal it. Period. We muddled through without it before. What’s the problem?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-29/republicans-consider-obamacare-repeal-without-replacement-strategy
BiG Insurance controls them. they are saying after 2020 now. just smoke and mirrors like the wall.
Who’s this “we” kemosabe? All those kind folks with pre-existing conditions and part-time jobs?
I had O’care for two years. Sucked. I’d like to hear some experiences from people with pre-existing conditions and how it worked out for them. Like, did they have the money for the monstrous deductibles? The co-pays? Doubt it. The only value in my mind was if something catastrophic came up.
More than 10-yrs ago there was a supervisor at one of our client offices, level 14 or so federal guy, whose wife got an aggressive breast cancer. They fought it for six months with everything known to man before she passed away. He told me it cost him $20k in co-pays, and I thought they had good insurance.
A friend of mine gets her insurance through an O’care exchange. She was a big HRC supporter, and her one comment about DJT was that “hopefully now the ACA will go away”.
She felt trapped into buying insurance that gave her no benefit (given the deductible).
‘We Do Not Owe Them a House in Poway’
In Poway, a veterans housing project was rejected over fears of low-income housing and the people who would live there.
By Maya Srikrishnan | 3 hours ago
After the Poway City Council denied a low-income veterans housing project in November, residents opposed to the project rejected suggestions that they were “anti-veteran.”
They are right. The opposition to the Habitat for Humanity veterans project had nothing to do with veterans.
The opposition stemmed from fear of low-income housing and the people who would live there.
One resident, Linda Laurie, summed it up perfectly at the November meeting where the project was ultimately rejected.
“There was never ever anything said that veterans would bring crime,” Laurie said. “No one said veterans didn’t deserve a place to live. No one said that veterans were going to cause more parking and cause an inconvenience to our neighborhood. There were comments to that respect when we only heard the words low-income housing, but we were not even talking about veterans at that time.”
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/topics/land-use/we-do-not-owe-them-a-house-in-poway/
Wouldn’t it make more sense to locate low income housing in low income areas, rather than upscale Poway?
Maybe they’re hoping that the Poway smugness will rub off on them or something.
Poway is all Chinese now. Crowded and full of malls.
According to the census, Poway is 70% white and 10% Asian.
It has a population of 50,000, in 40 square miles of area.
I guess only the Asians are shopping.
What does it say for Irvine, CA? feels like 70% Asian there.
You’re thinking Rancho Peñasquitos, Poway is old white people who shoot each other for parking in front of their old houses.
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sdut-poway-shootings-rooted-longtime-fued-between-neigh-2010apr05-htmlstory.html
All the places I’ve loved this was by far the meanest.
What does it say for Irvine, CA? feels like 70% Asian there.’
yep Chinese off jamboree
I was just there yesterday.
I love Dana Point because it feels like old California.
Young, beautiful people still say hi to you.
“Young, beautiful people still say hi to you.”
They still have money… enjoying life.
Then you end up with lots of low income people concentrated together in small neighborhoods, which often doesn’t work out so well.
That’s what cities are my friend. Low income.
which often doesn’t work out so well.
Doesn’t work out so well—why is that?
Are you being serious? Or not?
In any event, without a meaningful number of people with money to spend, you end up with fewer resources available to the poorer locals.
Ever heard of “food deserts”? These are places that don’t have modern grocery stores. Instead they have corner markets that generally have higher mark-ups, etc. If those with less income are mixed in with everyone else, they get the same access to grocery stores (and thus the benefits by buyer from lower-margin grocers, and getting better food generally).
There are intangibles as well…my kids go to school with other kids that fully expect to go to college and have an emphasis on education. So, even in fourth grade, my oldest is talking about “when” she goes to college, not “if” she goes to college. There is an emphasis on learning, study, etc.
If you are in a school with only a poorer demographic classmates, it is highly likely that the educational achievement in the kids’ families is not very high overall. And so kids don’t talk about college, they don’t have that expectation…and you can’t tell me that doesn’t impact the kids’ futures in ways that may not be frequently measured.
Are you being serious? Or not?
Honestly, RW, I was just giving Mikey an opening to say something raycis!
I get the concept of food deserts; it’s very unfortunate, and a clear indication of free markets not always achieving a good-for-humans outcome.
I have no doubt that expectations are highly corelated with outcomes when it comes to kids and educational success; sadly that’s not something that society can help with beyond a limited extent, since attitudes and expectations are most strongly influenced by home environment and value—and valuing education is strongly associated with socioeconomics. It’s a conundrum.
Liberals are benevolent, charitable souls, until it comes to their money or their backyards.
“Will prices keep dropping? With supply on the rise, rents in San Francisco fell 2.1 percent in the past year, down to $3,390 per month for a one-bedroom, according to ApartmentList.”
The good news is that prices are dropping.
The bad news is that they remain insanely overvalued.
Those numbers don’t include concessions:
https://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/sfc/hhh?query=free+rent&availabilityMode=0
The problem with concessions is that they apply only to the first year. People are going to get a huge shock when that first renewal notice shows up in their mailbox. Many people would rather pay the higher rent than to go to the hassle of moving, and LLs know it. So these “price drops” only apply if people move every year.
I’m sure that at some point, concessions won’t be enough and LLs will have to drop prices permanently. But that could take years.
Based on anecdote, there are folks living in and around SF who are doing so under less-than-preferred circumstances (living with parents, x people sharing an x-y bedroom apartment, etc.).
So, there are plenty of people willing to occupy the newly built units…if they can afford the rent.
So, my prediction (not all that crazy), is that rents will continue to fall, and concessions will continue to be provided, until enough of the folks living under less than ideal circumstances are drawn out to occupy the new units.
In some cases, it’s simply a matter of price and availability. In other cases, they will need to wait until their prior obligation has burned off (if, for instance, they joinly signed lease).
It’s like dropping a brick into thick tar. It will take time for it to be fully absorbed by the tar.
If they had built affordable units (not luxury), it would have been like dropping the brick into water.
‘rents will continue to fall, and concessions will continue to be provided’
The problem is these apartments and condos were priced so high they need the high rents. We’re talking about single digit returns when occupied. Rents are so high they will have to fall maybe as much as half. If it gets anywhere near that, defaults and foreclosures will happen left and right. Which is of course, how these things get sorted out. We’ve got a CRE bust going on in this country.
Indeed, way too much luxury housing was built over the last 5-6 years. Part of that was due to the high cost to build, as well as the market reality of a shrinking middle class and. There were never enough buyers/renters at those high prices and its going to be a long way down before equilibrium is found, causing the prices for everything to sink drastically.
So if you are homeless you can park overnight in a Walmart parking lot. I noticed Walmart has posted a list of its stores in California prohibiting this. The two stores near San Fran are on the list. There goes my San Fran visit.
The list contains 150 stores for California alone.
Do any of you remember Richard Brautigan’s writings ?
“Do any of you remember Richard Brautigan’s writings ?”
Yes, more or less vaguely, on account of I found him a tad pretentious and a bit of a bore. All those college girls clutching their copies of Trout Fishing in America and In Watermelon Sugar to their breasts.
I know he had a rough life and writing was his way of working through it. However, I was/am a Vonnegut fan and always got kick out of his Kilgore Trout character, which was more or less his way of taking a slap at Brautigan. I had a little go-round with PBear on this.
I liked one book from each.
“So it goes.”
My favorite is: The Good Soldier Svejk—Jaroslav Hasek
never drive into San Fran. take BART into the city.
Just remember to wear your hazmat suit on that BART ride..
The party of war and the military industrial complex?
—
Dems to Trump: F-35 substitute a ‘total nonstarter’
The Hill | December 23rd, 2016 | By Rebecca Kheel
A trio of Connecticut Democratic lawmakers is calling President-elect Donald Trump’s calls for finding an alternative to the F-35 a “total nonstarter.”
“Any suggestion that there is a substitute for the F-35 is a total nonstarter,” Reps. Joe Courtney, Rosa DeLauro and John Larson said in a statement Friday. “This is a program that has been vetted ad nauseum by the Pentagon, the Congress and independent experts. There is simply no aircraft in production today that can compare with the F-35’s advanced avionics, networked capabilities and integrated stealth.”
On Thursday, Trump took aim at the F-35 fighter jet for the second time in as many weeks, tweeting that he wants to explore a “comparable F-18.”
“Based on the tremendous cost and cost overruns of the Lockheed Martin F-35, I have asked Boeing to price-out a comparable F-18 Super Hornet,” he tweeted.
January 2, 2015
‘The Daily Beast’s Dave Majumdar is out with another excellent story about how the gun on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the Pentagon’s newest and most expensive fighter jet, won’t work for another four years — at the earliest.’
‘That’s because the software that lets pilots shoot the Gatling gun, which is critical for the aircraft to provide close-air support to ground troops, isn’t expected to ship until 2019, according to the article.’
‘The GAU-22/A is lighter and more accurate than its predecessor, but with a reduced rate of fire of 3,300 rounds per minute. At that rate, the F-35 would be out of ammunition in about four seconds, or one or two bursts of fire.’
In my bluer than blue state the dem politicians are falling all over themselves trying to get more WAR spending from Uncle Sugar on completely useless systems. Funny how the left claim they are anti war but want that sweet sweet sugar to keep on coming their way.
Peace economies are not as profitable as War economies,
We can barely get funding for infrastructure projects that would have a fifty-year useful lifespan, but this incredibly expensive aircraft gets the universal nod because so many in congress are fearful of their re-election prospects. The new weapon systems have better accuracy, range, and multiple target acquisition capabilities, so one would think that new air-frames based on existing technology would suffice until we are past the baby-boomer retirement crisis.
How much close air support can you provide with 2 bursts? “OK guys, that’s all I got, see ya in a couple hours!”
It’s all so dumb. How many planes does ISIS or the Taliban have? How many of Iraq’s jets were destroyed before they took off? All of them?
How many planes does ISIS or the Taliban have?
As many as they can afford to buy off of us. I think they spent most of their roll on Toyota trucks though iirc. Probably more reliable and better resale than jets.
Save data
All city rents are dropping
See,that was easy
USA, USA, USA!!
President Barack Obama ordered the expulsion of 35 Russian suspected spies and imposed sanctions on two Russian intelligence agencies over their involvement in hacking U.S. political groups in the 2016 presidential election.
The measures, taken during the last days of Obama’s presidency, mark a new post-Cold War low in U.S.-Russian ties which have deteriorated over Ukraine and Syria.
That hacking report the Ozero admin released is about as authentic as his birth certificate, lol! No doubt an intern was very busy the last couple of days cutting and pasting, and the infographic of hackers wearing hoodies was a nice touch. I give it a 2/10 for style and execution, and a -4/10 for substance. Ozero only hires the best.
kick Russia’s assszzzz! Reagan loves it!!
“Ozero only hires the best.”
I was wondering what happened to all that “Best and Brightest” cr@p from 2009.
His Secretary of State Hillary Clinton kept a private email server for official communications in her Port o Let and it took until last days of Obama’s presidency to figure out hackers wearing hoodies were doing this?
I’m giving Obama the benefit of the doubt on this one, and supporting him. The expulsions are a serious response and I do not think he would’ve acted rashly or without clear evidence of Russian hackers targeting US political groups. Just because you are not particularly fond of Obama should not mean you should be willing to turn a blind eye to Russian cyber operations directed against US entities.
That said, Wikileaks arguably performed an enormous public service by exposing the extent of influence peddling and collusion within and between the DNC and its various lapdogs and collaborators, especially its pressitute media tools.
http://www.nbc-2.com/story/34149939/conway-wonders-if-russian-sanctions-were-intended-to-restrict-trump
“That is not the way that peaceful exchanges work in this democracy.”
#fakenews
Before Trump Tries to Kill It, Obamacare Actually Just Got a Lot Stronger
By Jonathan Chait
A month ago, there seemed to be at least some possibility that the doomsaying predictions that Obamacare opponents have made since the law passed might finally come true. Premiums on the individual-exchange markets, which initially came in well below projected levels when the exchanges opened in 2014, spiked this fall by some 25 percent. While the price hike only brought premium levels back up to their initially projected levels, it seemed at least conceivable that the spike would set off a death spiral. If the higher premiums drove customers out of the exchanges, a shrinking pool could lead to higher rates, more customers leaving, and ultimately trigger a wholesale collapse.
The libertarian columnist Megan McArdle, who has been predicting the law’s imminent collapse since before it even came into existence, wrote a relatively balanced and honest column on November 3 laying out the two possibilities for the marketplace. “Are rates going up because insurers mispriced their insurance? Or are they going up because these markets are too unstable for insurers to make money at any price?” McArdle conceded it was possible that a “one-time pricing error” and a correction would leave the markets healthy. Her column landed on the other, more tantalizing possibility: that the markets would enter a death spiral. “No one knows,” she conceded.
But in the wake of the election and the holidays, when few people have paid attention, we have important news that makes the death-spiral scenario look extremely remote. First, sign-ups in the exchanges did not shrink. They actually set a new record, with 6.4 million sign-ups, exceeding the previous year’s total by 400,000. Second, a new S&P report concludes that the 2016 premium increases were, indeed, a “one-time pricing correction.” Insurers presented with a brand-new market initially set their rates far too low, and now they have found a sustainable price point that consumers are willing to pay. Going forward, the report projects that insurers “will likely see continued improvement … with more insurers getting close to breakeven or better.”
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/12/before-trump-tries-to-kill-it-obamacare-just-got-stronger.html
Repubs and Trump WILL NOT kill obamacare.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/419-Day-Dr-Ferguson-MO-63135/2653980_zpid/
Ferguson ,land of gentle giants to go up 4% next yr
Boulder, CO Housing Prices Crater 7% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/boulder-co/home-values/
Eat some crow broski! Your doom and gloom fantasies are all in your head.
Pull yourself up out of that gutter and cheer up Poet and remember…. There is nothing more optimistic and bullish than falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.
debbi.frickn.downer
Except the only place where prices are falling is your empty head…
Are you sure?
Friday Harbor, WA Housing Prices Crater 14% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/friday-harbor-wa/home-values/
Just watch ma man…..Trump will bring in the golden days of doom.
If you are looking to buy, next 4 years will be the best you ever had.
“If you are looking to buy, next 4 years will be the best you ever had.”
For anyone of any age?
Story image for rents down from Dallas News
D-FW office leasing stumbles in the fourth quarter, causing a decline …
Dallas News-5 hours ago
Miami, FL Real Estate & Homes for Sale -23,891 Homes
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Miami_FL
Miami, FL Real Estate & Homes for Sale -Price Reduced 9,036
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Miami_FL/shw-pr
38% of all Miami sellers slashed their price at least once.
Labor Force Participation Rate Plummets To 29 Year Low; 94 Million Jobless
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
But…but…4.9% unemployment rate!
If you were a full time well paid worker before and now have a lower paid part time job, you are not among those unfortunate 94 million jobless!
the bull market will last 4 more years under DJT. Get on board pukes!
Milton, WA Housing Prices Crater 17% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/milton-wa/home-values/
u need to start thing positive like DJT. If you are constantly thinking doom and gloom your life will be sh@t. Look in the mirror and say you are worthy of success 10 times.
He is a local troll. He thinks he is entertaining, whereas he is annoying as hell as half of his comments Housing Prices Carter %%% YoY. 50% of the comments on this blog are from HA trolling.
‘50% of the comments on this blog are from HA trolling’
I don’t think you can count. Chill out. I don’t even get this worked up and it’s my blog.
And you’re starting to piss me off.
Milton, WA Housing Prices Grow 11.5% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/milton-wa/home-values/
There is no housing shortage. There are millions of empty homes, and there are millions of homes occupied by single people or held as second or third “vacation” homes. Low rates for the past few decades have stimulated extreme amounts of additional supply.
Supply and demand determine rents, and rents are half the cost relative to prices and prevailing discount rates.
bs!
There are not millions but billions of empty houses in the world.
Billions?
Billions and billions and billions. And them some.
Approximately how many houses are there in the developed world?
Written Jul 5, 2015
First - define the “developed world”. For purposes of this discussion, I will assume it is the top 1/3 of the world. So, let’s say approximate 2.5 billion people live in the developed world.
Now, estimate the number of people that live in a family unit - With the average family size of 4 persons, then note that only 1/3 or so will have all of their children at home and that some are single (etc), lets say that there is approximately 2.5 people per dwelling. So now we have about 1 billion dwellings.
https://www.quora.com/Approximately-how-many-houses-are-there-in-the-developed-world
On the other side of the world in China, bloomberg estimates they have 13 million empty houses, in the smaller towns. From earlier today:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-29/china-s-megacity-housing-bubble-cure-has-small-town-side-effects
“Officials outside of the red-hot markets confront more ghost towns than bubbles. China has 13 million empty homes and continues to add to excess supply at a rate of 2 million units a year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence economists Fielding Chen and Tom Orlik.
“China’s real estate market is massively oversupplied,” they wrote in a recent report. “Worse, in the years ahead, demand is set to slow. The one-child policy has already crimped natural growth of the urban population. Rural-to-urban migration is ebbing as the supply of surplus rural workers is used up.”
The housing boom has largely been fueled by surging liquidity amid a two-year easing cycle by the People’s Bank of China, which is keeping its benchmark interest rate at a record low. Cheap credit has flowed to property in top-tier cities, but less has found its way to real estate in less-populated areas.”
There is a crap ton of shadow inventory out there that was never cleared from 2008. Would be interesting to know how many mortgages are actually current. I would suspect 20 to 30 percent are delinquent.
Except there is. The housing shortage is what driving the current housing “recovery”. If not for the shortage, even the lowest rates in the history wouldn’t sustain it. The shortage is the only game in town, not the rates as the demand is at multi-decade low.
Stick with the data my good friend. Stick with the data.
Coral Gables, FL Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/coral-gables-fl/home-values/
Sugar Land, TX Housing Prices Crater 12% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/sugar-land-tx/home-values/
You are a troll. You have a problem… I guess, posting under different names and having conversations with yourself makes you feel more significant? Now go lick Trumps boots
What is it about falling housing prices and rental rates that enrages you?
Kennewick, WA Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/kennewick-wa/home-values/
Lame