Housing Bubble Predictions For 2017
What’s your housing bubble prediction for 2017? Nashville Public Radio, “Home sales in Nashville have surged in recent years. The median price for a single family home is up by nearly half since 2012. Most realtors and analysts don’t see the market slowing down anytime soon. But we talked to one who says he can predict the exact month that will happen. ‘The Nashville market is probably one of the best housing markets in the United States,’ says Edsel Charles, the chairman of Franklin-based MarketGraphics Research Group Inc.”
“Charles projects Nashville’s home sales will stay strong until 2020. Actually, May of 2020 to be exact. That’s when the economic cycle nationwide will begin to wane, pulling Nashville down with it. Until then, he describes the next few years as going something like this. ‘So we’re going to go from today, grow, come down a little bit and then go back up,’ he says.”
The multifamily market? “This year Nashville has seen a tidal wave of apartments being built and coming up for rent. And experts say the market is starting to get water-logged. Longtime apartment developer Marty Heflin says Nashville’s hit the peak of its apartment building boom. ‘I think we’re headed to the bottom right now,’ Heflin says.”
“Recent data from Colliers International, a commercial real estate firm, show more than 10,000 apartments are slated to come online over the next year — yet another record for new supply. And Germantown is ground zero for the onslaught, with roughly 4,000 of those apartments. But research shows the rate at which they’re being rented is beginning to wane. And Heflin says developers are working hard to find tenants as fast as possible.”
“‘In some of the higher-end developments around town, you are starting to see one, two, three months free,’ Heflin says. ‘We are not quite to clowns twirling signs in the streets yet for ‘come on in a lease right away.’ But I would say it’s definitely becoming a concessionary environment right now.’”
From Pound Sterling Live. “It may be the great irony of Trump’s presidency that when a property developer came into office the first thing that happened was that the bottom fell out of the property market. Yet that appears to be exactly what may be happening if recent data and forecasts from certain analysts are anything to go by.”
“Nordea Bank analyst Aurelija Augulyte has been expecting a slump in housing, and has forecast a full-scale downturn in the sector in 2017. She notes how history shows that it only takes a 100 basis point rise, or 1.0%, in interest rates (and mortgage rates) to cause a recession. A steady decline in residential investment is another early indicator of a slowdown in the sector.”
“‘Housing market is key, residential investment is one of the best leading indicators for the US economy. The recent rise in yields will dampen the housing market activity. In fact, it doesn’t take much – just another 100bp rise in mortgage rates, and we have a US recession? Yes, I think in some form or shape, we will have a word ‘recession’ as a theme and driver during 2017,’ said Augulyte.”
From six months ago. “Predictions: Major political or economic shock hits US in August/September. Recession is belatedly found to have begun in Q2 2016. High end housing inventory continues to pile up, putting downward pressure on mid-level housing prices. Median sales prices start to drift downward as high end properties taken out of the mix. Entry-level housing remains in high demand, especially in desirable neighborhoods.”
“Presidential election is close; Hillary prevails albeit not without scandals. Brexit is shelved…”
Another said, “This is the top and there is nowhere to go from here but down, I called it in ‘07 and I’m calling it now. Inventory is loading up in the key markets: Miami, Phoenix, Atlanta, Las Vegas. SF And NY are starting to see some inventory.”
One had this, “I predict that Donald Trump will continue to be Donald Trump and his campaign will continue imploding from now through November 2016 Election Day.”
From one year ago. “How much liquidity will they drain out, that is the trillion dollar question. I still think that NIRP is coming. From some of the articles I’ve read, surveys say that people will tolerate up to negative 10% interest rates before they really get upset.”
Another said, “I was thinking of a gold price target of $1,300 for the end of 2016. $1,500 in 2017. Low in 2018 or 2019 of $890. Up from there. Not sure on oil. Probably range bound closer to $50. Stocks: Slightly new lows by March. Sluggish but up a bit by the end of the year from there. New highs by late 2017, but a Fall CRASH. BONDS: not in good shape. Getting worse. Real Estate becomes more sluggish in the vast majority of areas. The Real Estate Wealth Effect goes into reverse. TRUMP wins.”
And another, “The more likely it is that Trump wins the Republican nomination, the more likely it becomes that the Democrats will win the 2016 presidential election. I still suspect that Trump and all you Trump trolls secretly work for the Clinton campaign. I predict that Trump will continue to tap into the populist anger vibe, but the Republican base will dump him at the convention through a brokered procedure.
And finally, “At the end of The Big Short, they revealed that new irresponsible bets on housing were introduced in 2015. If that is true, the bubble in housing has not fully even reignited yet. There is no way we are anywhere near the mania I saw in 2015, so nobody here has an ounce of proof that housing is in the process of crashing. Oh yeah, Hillary will win. That’s a hard prediction.”
I know I said I was going to start this tomorrow but I had some extra time.
‘In some of the higher-end developments around town, you are starting to see one, two, three months free,’ Heflin says. ‘We are not quite to clowns twirling signs in the streets yet for ‘come on in a lease right away.’ But I would say it’s definitely becoming a concessionary environment right now.’
This is big, Nashville is considered the can’t lose apartment market. I see 3 or 4 projects announced every week.
Mission District San Francisco Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/mission-san-francisco-ca/home-values/
bull.market.JACK
‘I still think that NIRP is coming. From some of the articles I’ve read, surveys say that people will tolerate up to negative 10% interest rates before they really get upset.’
I didn’t see anyone in these comments above predict that interest rates would bottom last July. Are there any negative interest rates left?
Creating panic and a flight to safety of treasuries would sure create some buyers for yellen.
I guess you really need to look at the duration of the bonds they have on the balance sheet. If they have a boatload of maturing treasuries then they have incentive not to lose money. If they hold the bonds to maturity then I assume they aren’t worried about losses as much.
The thing is when these bonds come up for maturity can the principal be paid back? The only way to do it is sell more bonds.
I dont see how this balance sheet will ever shrink if yields are so low as real buyers want yield. The only way to ever get out of this hole is to have interest rates that are higher and attract real investors.
If yields go higher than stock and home prices come down.
If yields go higher than stock and home prices come down
not to mention ohbahhma allowed credit card companies 18 months before new regulations took effect to stop CC abuses by the companies
which gave them plenty of time to change tens of millions of CC holderss from a fixed rate to a variable one…….oops
Rising rates simply accelerates already falling housing prices and rental rates.
“If they hold the bonds to maturity then I assume they aren’t worried about losses as much.”
Who would notice a difference if the Fed hung on to the bonds to maturity, thereby burying any and all losses?
“The thing is when these bonds come up for maturity can the principal be paid back? The only way to do it is sell more bonds.”
Can’t the Fed buy whatever amount of bonds need to be sold with its printing press money?
The SF Mission District is so overheated that an eight percent correction is barely trimming the nails of the beast. Full blown cratering will be in excess of fifty percent and take a few years. For 2017 at least one big apartment complex will go under to be sold and restructured possibly with some NIRPy loan magic.
‘It may be the great irony of Trump’s presidency that when a property developer came into office the first thing that happened was that the bottom fell out of the property market.’
The election kinda changed the reporting on real estate markets, as the media was focused on the “everything is awesome” thing. NYC going into the tank, Miami Beach, Houston. The CRE is signalling a downturn and the lady is right:
‘Housing market is key, residential investment is one of the best leading indicators for the US economy.’
Will RE drag the economy down or vice versa? The overall economy hasn’t been that great. Luxury housing has been growing like crazy. Now everybody says luxury is the worst performer. Something hasn’t been adding up.
“Is the U.S. in the Midst of a Housing Bubble?”
December 27, 2016
“Bloomberg Intelligence’s Yelena Shulyatyeva discusses U.S. home prices and the impact of an increase in mortgage rates on housing demand.”
“Is the US in the midst of a housing bubble?”
Interesting that prices in many areas are already much higher than the biggest real estate bubble in history, yet they are asking if we could be in a bubble? No, you don’t say…
I think that it will suddenly be “ok” to report bad news, because now they have Trump to blame it on.
The media was the biggest loser in this election. They got punked, exposed for what they really are- shills pedaling lies for the establishment. The independent thinkers already knew this, but then Trump won the election and the Hillary voters came to the realization that the media was pedaling lies. They fully expected a Hillary win, because the media had ingrained this into their empty skulls. Now they’re angry. The media is about as well-liked as politicians at this point…
One had this, “I predict that Donald Trump will continue to be Donald Trump and his campaign will continue imploding from now through November 2016 Election Day.”
The poster who said this, indirectly predicted a Hillary win everytime someone said Trump would win. Still no shame on being so wrong, like the media, in reading the pulse of the people in the rust belt. Misjudged the mood of the people completely. At least the “cut & paste has reduced considerably.
They were saying Screech would win Arizona and Texas. I kept thinking, Arizona is going to vote for an amnesty proponent? And the Clinton’s have never been liked in Texas.
It’s one thing not being able to predict what will happen. It’s entirely another thing to really enjoy what happens!
“I kept thinking, Arizona is going to vote for an amnesty proponent?”
Both of AZ’s senators, Flake and McCain, are amnesty proponents. (Gang of Eight) Just sayin’.
Let me ask you: what is the common perception of Arizonans and illegal immigration? Weren’t we threatened with sanctions from other states for our referendums (straight non-partisan votes by the people, forced by petitions BTW) that targeted illegals? The senators are merely a reflection of the failed imperial senate. These two clowns don’t represent the people. This is the two party system being imposed on us. And we can’t get rid of them. Yes, we can vote for Trump, but we can’t get rid of them. This is a FUBAR system.
It’s not just here: 15 of the 17 GOP candidates were for amnesty. And who won?
“Let me ask you: what is the common perception of Arizonans and illegal immigration?”
I don’t really know what the common perception is. My perception is that as a state, it is not happy with the situation and fought against it. Jan Brewer had a bigger set than the two Senators. She got crushed by the Feds.
I just happen to be particularly annoyed with McCain today (and his sidekick Lindsey) and wondering why no one has ever been able to mount a successful opposition against him. He is a loathsome toad and has lived way beyond his expiration date.
Some anonymous “insider” during the Weiner email/laptop said that there were emails implicating two Republican members of the Gang of Eight in some pretty raw stuff. Not too hard to guess which two those might be. I view a lot of the “anonymous insider leaks” with a jaundiced eye, but this one would not surprise me in the least. No wonder all the screaming about Russia.
‘why no one has ever been able to mount a successful opposition against him’
It’s the two party system. I only voted against McCain and for Trump in the election. In the primary he was against an unknown opponent but was for real. She had no money. Nobody knew her name. The GOP put up a few other phony opposition candidates to water her down. She never stood a chance. I voted for the Democrat against McCain n the general. She never stood a chance. The machine politics wins. Maricopa county (Phoenix) picks all the winners, and the only Republican choice they ever get is McCain.
It’s the two party system.
This is why I laugh at those who claim that Trump will be a dictator. The GOP hates him, some even endorse Screech.
He is going to have an uphill battle on every issue they disagree with him on. Other than repealing the ACA, I don’t see much consensus.
You need to make a distinction between the sellout Establishment GOP, who are RINOS, cucks, neocons, and corporate statists, and the Republican base, which increasingly loathes its current “leadership.”
There are no fiscal conservatives in congress.
“…reading the pulse of the people in the rust belt.”
I believe that it’s more widespread, but many will not admit it… like that guy in the Atlantic piece said, economic impotence, IIRC. Family budgets just don’t pencil-out, and I’m talking about the who consider themselves middle-class.
When half the populace are Lucky Duckies, what is the definition of “middle class”?
“The poster who said this, indirectly predicted a Hillary win everytime someone said Trump would win.”
Someone is a lion.
False dualism troll alert…
Traffic in Denver will get worse.
When the economic bust clobbers Denver, won’t all the opportunists leave?
I’m actually surprised he didn’t keep up the gloom message, seemed clear to me that they would pivot and try and get him to hold the bag for ruining the awesomeness. It will be interesting to see the blame game play out again.
I’ve been around a while, but I’m not wise enough to make predictions, especially in the bay area with so much going on in terms of speculation, flippers, capital flight, FBs, and the usage of any and every excuse to prop up housing higher due to prop 13 otherwise constraining local revenues and there being few complaining victims of said price increases (I.e. rent controlled renters and future middle class buyers don’t complain). Nobody thinks long term.
Left work today and saw three protesters outside the Twitter building:
Ban Donald Trump
Stop Hate Tweets
Love the blog and wolfstreet, will set up a throwaway anon account with the same address for future posts.
‘It will be interesting to see the blame game play out again’
Trump got out in front of this saying the economy was a big fat bubble and he hoped it would pop before he became president. That was summer 2015 IIRC. It’s telling that when Yellen raised rates and said 3 more were coming he was silent.
It’s telling that when Yellen raised rates and said 3 more were coming he was silent.
Telling—but saying what?
He’s OK with normalizing interest rates.
However, so far Janet Yellen’s version of forward guidance has been to signal rate increases, then pull away the football like Lucy tricking Charlie Brown. And just like Charlie Brown, Mr Market falls for it every time!
Yep—why actually bother to change rates when you can get the effect you want/need merely by jawboning an impending never-happening change?
Silverton, OR Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/silverton-or/home-values/
Silverton, OR Housing Prices Grow 10.4% YoY
…and forecast a 4.8% increase next year.
Your good friend Karen made this just for you.
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
Step (3) no longer works for me… Median Sales Price is greyed-out, and cannot be selected in the drop-down.
an Sales Price is greyed-out
I just checked on my little burg. Same story.
I wonder if zillow is trying to hide something.
That’s right. Falling prices. They haven’t censored median price yet. They’re falling too.
They haven’t censored median price yet.
Correction: they haven’t censored median LIST price yet. But that’s what we used to call “Wishing Price”—it reflects what a seller hopes that their house is worth, not what it is really worth. List price is far less meaningful than sale price.
Either way, prices are falling.
Word of the day, boys and girls. It describes how the MSM is going to spin any and all news that belies the “Everything is awesome!” meme touted by the Wall Street-Federal Reserve Looting Syndicate and its media lapdogs who are trying desperately not to spook the herd until Da Boyz can cash out and flee the rigged, doomed casino.
dis·sim·u·la·tion
dəˌsimyəˈlāSH(ə)n/
noun
concealment of one’s thoughts, feelings, or character; pretense.
“an attempt at dissimulation”
synonyms: pretense, dissembling, deceit, dishonesty, duplicity, lying, guile, subterfuge, feigning, shamming, faking, bluff, bluffing, posturing, hypocrisy
“he was capable of great dissimulation and hypocrisy”
“I wonder if zillow is trying to hide something.”
Of course they are. I posted this a few weeks back, after seeing the same thing for all major West coast cities and about a dozen in the Midwest.
No, they are not. Nothing goes up in a straight line. Same with the stock market. DJI is approaching $20K. Does it do it in a straight line? No, of course not, does it mean the stock market is falling? No, it keeps rising. One step back, two steps forward. Look at the prices from year ago, two years ago, three years ago. The are all up. The only falling prices are in HA’s head. You are nothing but a troll
Prices have been rising about 10% on average a year for the last three years straight. The only place where the prices fell was HA head. He has been parroting cratering prices as they grew 30-50%. He missed the boat many years ago and cannot get his head around it…
Data my good friend. Stick with the data.
Downtown Bellevue, WA Housing Prices Crater 9% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/downtown-bellevue-wa/home-values/
1. Even though three rate increases are predicted for 2017 - we might only get one.
2. Even so - mortgage rates are going higher. And will stay there.
3. The housing bubble pops in many areas. DJT tells banks they are going to start to eat their bad loans. Newspaper have stories of victims and how cruel DJT is.
4. Defense stocks have done amazing under war-monger obama. Even though DJT promises to rebuild the military, defense stocks get hammered as the new massive and expense weapon system programs get cut. The military focuses on what works and rebuilding their ranks. The obama social engineering of the military is rolled back.
5. Corruption investigations against Hillary. Poor health of both Hillary and Bill end the investigation with admissions of guilt and destruction of their fraud machine. obama is directly tied to all the corruption but is left alone.
6. Much better relations with Russia. The Ukraine sees some peace. ISIS gets tagged team. Assad stays in power. Oil prices tank.
7. Cuts in funding to the UN. NAFTA gets renegotiated. The wall does start to get built. Illegals are deported by the thousands starting with criminal illegals. The left gets severely defunded. The left howls in pain. No one cares.
8. Decent jobs (not obama waiters and coffee slinger jobs) do start to come back to America. Not a flood but a YUGE step in the right direction. The workforce participation starts to rise after eight years. Unemployment actually goes up with the screwy way unemployment is measured. The left laughs in delight.
9. Muslim terror in America to include a “Beslan” type attack. America responds. The left howls in pain. No one cares. All muslin immigration is halted. The muslim brotherhood is declared a terrorist organization.
10. The first BANKER perp walks in eight years.
11. obama is on the news weekly and sometimes nightly. He complains and demands action. Accuses all of racism. Goes abroad and insults America and DJT. No one cares except in midterms where the democrats lose senate and house seats.
Not too shabby, I’ll just add that human evolution will progress in an unlikely direction, namely, those with thick rolls of fat around their necks will assert their superiority over the rest of us as they have a “built-in” neck pillow for flying in airplanes.
I admit, I was shocked with the aisles upon aisles of neck pillows at my local Kmart this afternoon. Who knew this would become something people apparently can’t live without just 5 or 10 years ago?
I don’t get out much to mix it up with the masses, but that doesn’t mean I shouldn’t cut back!
That sounds more like a wish list than predictions. OK, here’s my wish list:
Trump makes a deal with Congress: Republicans will agree to an infrastructure bill, a $13/hr minimum wage, and a public-option health care e.g. Medicare buy-in. In exchange, Dems agree to dispense with any thought of amnesty, turn the US into a “papers please” country (and enforce it this time), limit H1-B to workers only — no spouse or family — with a 4-year sunset, and allow companies to repatriate their profits low-tax using some portion of the profits to pay workers.
In other words, trickle up economics for Americans first.
‘That sounds more like a wish list than predictions’
It’s more like a whine fest anymore.
Bailout after bailout, and the Eurozone is still unfixed.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/12/30/who-benefits-from-italys-bank-bailout/
Many bail-ins are a’coming…
Cyprus showed us the way.
“I predict that Donald Trump will continue to be Donald Trump and his campaign will continue imploding from now through November 2016 Election Day.”
That must have been before Kellyanne Conway took charge.
That’s such an interesting story. In fact it was the Mercers (father and daughter) who took charge and installed Conway and Bannon. However, Conway is probably one of the best, if not THE best, pollsters in the business. I think it was her information that convinced the Mercers to back Trump. Before that, they were behind Cruz.
I claim no expertise in polling or political science, but my subjective impression was that Trump’s campaign greatly benefited from her guidance.
This is the kind of Trump jackassery that needs to stop, now. Dude, you’re the President-Elect. Start acting like it and rise to the institutional responsibilities and greatness of the office. You serve the people now, remember?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-31/trump-tweets-taunt-happy-new-year-my-many-enemies-who-lost-so-badly
‘needs to stop, now’
SYLF.
The election results in response to Trump’s outrageous behaviors on the campaign trail gave Trump a mandate to do whatever he wants in office.
What does SYLF stand for?
SYLF Support Your Local Feminist
It doesn’t mean, “see you later, fool”?
The election results in response to Trump’s outrageous behaviors on the campaign trail gave Trump a mandate to do whatever he wants in office.
PB, I can’t decide if you or Sweet William are worse when it comes to viewing events through the prism of your ideological dogma and biases. Trump’s election was a repudiation of the corrupt, crony capitalist status quo that Crooked Hillary and the Republicrat duopoly exemplified. Trump’s “mandate” is to drain the swamp. His popular support is going to evaporate fast if he fails to honor the pledges he made to 61 million Americans who are fed up with a system that doesn’t represent them or respond to their concerns.
It’s mighty hard to rise to your standards of ideological objectivity, Ray!
‘Trump’s “mandate” is to drain the swamp. His popular support is going to evaporate fast if he fails to honor the pledges he made to 61 million Americans who are fed up with a system that doesn’t represent them or respond to their concerns.’
The joke is on you.
DRAIN THE SWAMP! Goldman Sachs Now Dominates Trump Administration
Hank Berrien
December 9, 2016
The hypocrisy of Donald Trump regarding Goldman Sachs is staggering; he repeatedly targeted the company during the primary season to attack his most dangerous rival, Ted Cruz, and also used Goldman Sachs as a foil to attack Hillary Clinton.
…
The alternative was Crooked Hillary. ‘Nuff said.
“if he fails to honor the pledges he made to _____”
It’s not a question of if, it’s a matter of when. The only thing Donald Trump cares about is himself and his tremendous ego.
That’s the one thing you can count on about Donald Trump.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-30/trump-exactly-where-elites-want-him
The article worth reading:
Remember…… When you pay a grossly inflated price, you roll the dice…… irrespective where you got the money.
Trump Is Exactly Where The Elites Want Him
The article worth reading, every single word. It is time to wake up Trump trolls, take off your tin foil hat already…
‘every single word’
Will you stamp your little feet if I don’t'?
Ben Jones, you can just continue living in your denial / illusional world. You, Trump lovers, are no different from the liberals who would support whatever candidate DNC throws at them. Whether it is a criminal scumbag Cutlery Klinton, or Communist/Marxists Bernie Sanders, democrats will just cheer them. You just go all Trump and refuse to see him for what he is, just as corrupt and care less about what little people want or think. You will support whoever is thrown at you as long as he or she is anti-liberal, which, by any definition, Trump is not. He is just as liberal as Obama. Trump is a republican obama… I did support Ron Paul, who was the real deal in 2012. Trump is just a wolf in sheep’s clothing. He will not make America great again. You are just ignorant fools to think otherwise.
Just a reminder, sleepless, we are guests on Ben’s blog, which he operates at his time and expense. There are very few rules here. The main one is, don’t slag the blogger. It’s like going to a party and partaking of the host’s food and drink and then thanking him by puking on the carpet.
In fact, that’s mild, because most guests who puke on the carpet give everyone the finger and then stagger out the door. You guys stick around, eat, drink and puke some more.
You, Trump lovers, are no different from the liberals who would support whatever candidate DNC throws at them.
IIRC, Trump supporters REJECTED the candidates the RNC threw at them.
BTW, are you a relative to Alex Jones at infowars? That guy went full nuts on Trump. He should’ve sticked to “conspiracy theories” instead. It is pathetic how he is bashing the young turks where as he is not much different. He is just republican young turks. I despise the young turks just as much.
Yep, so ya went back for more eats and drinks and puked on the carpet again. Sigh.
More like hooves. These people are like those little cartoon ponies with the giant eyelashes, mad because they cant find their rainbow or some such.
There Jonesy. You’ve been schooled.
Someone has a bad case of TDS. Trump Derangement Syndrome.
Ya don’t like Alex Jones, don’t watch him.
Ya don’t like Ben Jones, don’t comment on the blog.
I meet this guy in college named Patel. I told him, “hey I know a guy with that last name back home, are you related?” He patiently assured me there were a bunch of Patel’s and they aren’t all related. As a matter of fact, there are so many of them it was highly unlikely they were related.
Korea has only about 17 last names in total, and something like 30 percent are “Kim.” Made using the phone book a biatch, back in the day.
Much like ‘Nguyen’ is the Vietnamese ‘Smith’ in the phone book.
‘You will support whoever is thrown at you as long as he or she is anti-liberal, which, by any definition, Trump is not. He is just as liberal as Obama. Trump is a republican obama’
He did stamp his little feet!
I don’t believe in liberal/conservative, false dualism’s. Does anyone doubt the establishment lost? Both parties went crazy against this guy. Why was that? Has there been even a congress person who was anti-globalism? Ron Paul never went there. He was too nice to call Bush out for 9/11 and Clinton out for her crimes.
It’s going to take years for this to sink in. Some have said it was the biggest earthquake in modern US politics. Like Brexit, the policy achievements, if there will be any, are ahead not behind. But the crime families Bush and Clinton are done. Anything else we get is gravy. And it’s looking like we might get some gravy. Let Mexico take care of her own people. Let’s look after our own people for a change.
Things are going to change and it’s going to happen quickly. And there’s going to be a whole bunch wallets getting lighter. Alot lighter.
Other purposes of the Great Wall have included border controls, allowing the imposition of duties on goods transported along the Silk Road, regulation or encouragement of trade and the control of immigration and emigration. Furthermore, the defensive characteristics of the Great Wall were enhanced by the construction of watch towers, troop barracks, garrison stations, signaling capabilities through the means of smoke or fire, and the fact that the path of the Great Wall also served as a transportation corridor.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Wall_of_China
just surprised Trump didn’t use this as an example.
Not just Mexico… Central America too, which is where many of the DC area folks are from. I’m still wrapping my head around SJWs who bemoan that blacks can’t get jobs, while also trying to secure a “better life” for anyone who wants to walk in.
Tree work,last $ event in my yard
Regular Joe $2500
Licensed jose $2000
Pure cash $900
N va rates
Pure cash $900 ??
Big part of the problem. To few pulling the wagon and to many riding in it.
I would second the “read every word” admonition. Brandon Smith has been a solid fixture in the Liberty movement, and his warnings about Trump potentially being co-opted by The Swamp are starting to look prescient, unfortunately. Trump is still a vast improvement over Crooked Hillary, and his victory represents a major repudiation of the globalist oligarchy by the forgotten middle and working class in this country. Will he commit himself to leaving a legacy of fighting for the 99% against their plutocrat overlords? Time will tell. I’m cautiously optimistic on the whole, but “Trump trolls” will turn on The Donald in a minute if he sells out. This is about restoring the Republic, not blind adoration for any particular standard-bearer.
A tree is to be judged by its fruit. Age old wisdom and there are quite a few who are judging by their own predictions. We shall see.
‘Trump Is Exactly Where The Elites Want Him’
‘take off your tin foil hat already…’
Sounds like the writer is suggesting a conspiracy theory. Trump is a Russkie! He hacked Madonna’s Alexa! BTW, ZH I don’t open your links very often cuz there’s too much garbage that pops up. Is that a conspiracy?
“General Jack D. Ripper: Mandrake, do you recall what Clemenceau once said about war?
Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: No, I don’t think I do, sir, no.
General Jack D. Ripper: He said war was too important to be left to the generals. When he said that, 50 years ago, he might have been right. But today, war is too important to be left to politicians. They have neither the time, the training, nor the inclination for strategic thought. I can no longer sit back and allow Communist infiltration, Communist indoctrination, Communist subversion and the international Communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids.”
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0057012/quotes
“General Jack D. Ripper: Mandrake, do you realize that in addition to fluoridating water, why, there are studies underway to fluoridate salt, flour, fruit juices, soup, sugar, milk… ice cream. Ice cream, Mandrake, children’s ice cream.
Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: [very nervous] Lord, Jack.
General Jack D. Ripper: You know when fluoridation first began?
Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: I… no, no. I don’t, Jack.
General Jack D. Ripper: Nineteen hundred and forty-six. 1946, Mandrake. How does that coincide with your post-war Commie conspiracy, huh? It’s incredibly obvious, isn’t it? A foreign substance is introduced into our precious bodily fluids without the knowledge of the individual. Certainly without any choice. That’s the way your hard-core Commie works.
Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: Uh, Jack, Jack, listen… tell me, tell me, Jack. When did you first… become… well, develop this theory?
General Jack D. Ripper: [somewhat embarassed] Well, I, uh… I… I… first became aware of it, Mandrake, during the physical act of love.
Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: Hmm.
General Jack D. Ripper: Yes, a uh, a profound sense of fatigue… a feeling of emptiness followed. Luckily I… I was able to interpret these feelings correctly. Loss of essence.
Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: Hmm.
General Jack D. Ripper: I can assure you it has not recurred, Mandrake. Women uh… women sense my power and they seek the life essence. I, uh… I do not avoid women, Mandrake.
Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: No.
General Jack D. Ripper: But I… I do deny them my essence.”
“House is in Pre foreclosure, not sure when you would have to move out,,maybe 6 months to a year. I am living here now,so come take a look”
More of this.
http://nh.craigslist.org/sub/5937993415.html
The link is no longer functioning.
China seems poised to continue its glacially paced growth recession, with the target continuing to gradually contract.
EconoTimes
Chinese 10-year sovereign bond yields slide to lowest in December on economic growth angst
Fri, Dec 30, 2016 5:01 AM
The Chinese 10-year sovereign bond yields hit lowest in December as investors poured into safe-haven instruments amid rising concerns that the country may witness subdued GDP growth with the country unwilling to raise more debt to boost its economy.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year bonds, which moves inversely to its price, fell 6 basis points to 3.06 percent, the long-term 30-year bond yield also dipped nearly 6 basis points to 3.67 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year bonds slid 11 basis points to 2.79 percent.
China is poised to abandon its 6.5 percent growth target sometime in the next two years as leaders push to contain asset bubbles and financial leverage, said Societe Generale in its report.
According to Bloomberg’s report, China’s President Xi Jinping told a meeting of the Communist Party’s financial and economic leading group on last Friday that the country may forego its 6.5 percent economic growth objective due to concerns about rising debt and an uncertain outlook for Asia’s largest economy.
Some meeting participants sounded the alarm about unsustainable debt, noting that other nations have experienced crises after borrowing climbed to around 300 percent of GDP, the person said. China’s debt-to-GDP ratio rose to about 270 percent this year, they added.
…
The Chinese 10-year sovereign bond yields hit lowest in December as investors poured into safe-haven instruments
I wonder what those instruments are? US stocks? Overpriced houses in Palo Alto?
“Overpriced houses in Palo Alto?”
Today’s perceived safe haven asset is tomorrow’s collapsed bubble.
Overpriced houses in Palo Alto?
If you want to understand the thinking it is 1/2 glass full is better than glass empt. I am here. I see it daily. It’s real.
Poverty and crime and in particular, fraud. Is far more real.
Mark Hanson @MrMarkHanson Dec 28
HANSON: HOUSING BUBBLES (Nov Case-Shiller Update): If 07 was a known housing bubble then whats this?
HUMM? MAYBE 08-10 WAS A PRE-CRASH?
https://twitter.com/mrmarkhanson
Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower to End 2016
Mortgage rates moved lower for a 3rd consecutive day to end 2016, bringing them to the lowest levels in more than 3 weeks for many lenders. December 8th was the last time rates were lower. As of yesterday, 4.25% regained the status of the “most prevalent” conventional 30yr fixed quote on top tier scenarios…
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/
2017 Predictions:
1. Uncertainty.
2. Everyone will speak their book.
3. Things expected to happen quickly will take longer than expected.
4. Things expected to happen slowly will happen more quickly than expected.
5. HA will change his handle more frequently than his socks and underwear.
6. Degenerate gamblers will sink deeper undewater.
Tomorrow is New Years Day.
Check the batteries in your smoke and carbon monoxide detectors.
Check the air filters on your HVAC system
Change the saran wrap liner in your tin foil hats.
Happy New Year!
Build a bugout bag and keep it ready. Stock up on basic preparedness supplies like lanterns, flashlights, batteries, candles, bottled water, water filters, etc. We live in interesting times.
http://graywolfsurvival.com/66545/how-to-build-ultimate-25-pound-bug-bag/
Yup. I got a bugout bag in the closet and a larger one in the car. I’ve got the grab-list all set up. Plus I have lots of shelter-in-place food (a little low on water…)
(a little low on water…)
Are you counting your water heater in that tally? It’s usually the easiest source of 40-60 gal of potable water…
nashvile is not a low crime area.. https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/tn/nashville/crime/
2017 the year of MILO……ohbewanna’s legacy the death of political correctness, and everything is finally on the table
https://www.facebook.com/myiannopoulos/
Hope n’ change comes to retail.
http://www.businessinsider.com/stores-closing-macys-kohls-walmart-sears-2016-12
Bring out your dead.
Bring out your debt.
2017 Predictions:
Government State and local pensions across the country will continue to be in trouble. Many will try and raise taxes to make up the shortfalls.
I don’t think Trump will bail them out.
that would be a serious mistake….. the only fair way is to go back to the original way of calculating pensions no spiking in the last years no OT sick vacation days etc, just on base salary, and then lets see what the numbers add up to.
we cant have 20 25 or even 30 years and out and draw full pensions…people are living longer then 30 years ago, and i still say we really underestimated the amount of people who quit smoking and will collect 10-20+ years longer then they should have…
if you look at state budgets like NY and CT the biggest increase each year is pension costs so how much more taxes are people willing to pay for luxury benefits that should have only been available to a few not almost everyone.
so how much more taxes are people willing to pay for luxury benefits that should have only been available to a few not almost everyone.”
Cut services and see how much they will pay, Roads bad, water polluted, no cops , oh well another 1/2 cent sales tax increase will fix it.
It won’t but thats how they do it.
Irrelevant.
Roads are already bad, water tastes like gasoline and all the cops are sketchy. We’re already paying 600% premiums for bad roads and you want to pay more?
2017 predictions:
1. Geopolitics and regional conflicts will predominate as the prime sources of fear and uncertainty - good for gold, bad for markets.
2. The rejectionist populist-nationalist impulse against the globalist elites, their Establishment political accessories, and their media presstitutes, will gather force as former sheeple, fed up with their cultural enrichment and pauperization at the hands of the oligarchs, reclaim their identities as sovereign peoples in sovereign nation-states and fight for a future for their children. This will throw a major wrench in supranational schemes like the EU that have been faciliating globalization, multiculturalism, and the banksters turning formerly proud and prosperous sovereign countries into Goldman Sachs looting colonies.
3. People will continue to awaken and reject The Narrative, causing the MSM to become even more thoroughly discredited and bolstering the power and influence of independent citizen bloggers and journalists, and alternative media truth-tellers. This will create major obstacles to the elites as they attempt to use their media border collies to herd the sheeple into their incorporated neoliberal plantation and economic serfdom.
4. The financial house of cards in China will be the first to implode, followed in rapid succession by the Eurozone, then the US.
5. Epic popular rage against the Keynesian fraudsters at our central banks will grow exponentially as the chickens come home to roost and true price discovery finally asserts itelf.
re down 2%
word
Trump Mocks CNN, NBC; Praises Putin: “Great Move On Delay - I Always Knew He Was Very Smart”
http://www.zerohedge.com/node/583402
God bless President Donald J. Trump. God bless America.
This is a great start to Trump’s first term, as America’s government functions best when the Executive and Legislative branches are at war with one another.
FINANCIAL TIMES
Russia
Trump faces the Congressional bear pit over Russia
Lawmakers from both parties likely to resist push for closer US ties with Moscow
Putin resists tit-for-tat expulsions of US diplomats
© AFP
yesterday
by: Courtney Weaver in Washington
The announcement of new US sanctions against Russia paves the way for a potential showdown between Congress and Donald Trump’s incoming administration over what kind of stance Washington should take against the country in the future.
Mr Trump has called for closer ties with Moscow and played down its role in the Ukrainian conflict. But he is likely to face fierce resistance from a bipartisan coalition in Congress who have promised even tougher measures against Russia next year, with or without the president-elect’s approval.
Republican senators John McCain, Lindsey Graham and Marco Rubio have vowed to push for harsher measures against Russia, saying that the new Obama sanctions do not go far enough. More than 20 senators of both parties have signed an open letter to Mr Trump urging him to provide more support to Ukraine and keep the existing sanctions against Russia in place once he takes office.
While those sanctions were signed by executive order and could be reversed by Mr Trump with the stroke of a pen, many in Congress believe that there is a large-enough coalition of Senate Democrats and Republicans who would oppose such a course.
“I think there will be a confrontation at some point unless Trump changes course,” said a Republican Senate aide who was not authorised to speak publicly. “The administration will have to decide whether to go along with [the Senate’s Russia] efforts or to fight them.”
…
‘Republican senators John McCain, Lindsey Graham and Marco Rubio have vowed to push for harsher measures against Russia, saying that the new Obama sanctions do not go far enough. More than 20 senators of both parties have signed an open letter to Mr Trump urging him to provide more support to Ukraine and keep the existing sanctions’
Yeah, these people want WW3 and Trump is dangerous?
“[after learning of the Doomsday Machine]
President Merkin Muffley: But this is absolute madness, Ambassador! Why should you *build* such a thing?
Ambassador de Sadesky: There were those of us who fought against it, but in the end we could not keep up with the expense involved in the arms race, the space race, and the peace race. At the same time our people grumbled for more nylons and washing machines. Our doomsday scheme cost us just a small fraction of what we had been spending on defense in a single year. The deciding factor was when we learned that your country was working along similar lines, and we were afraid of a doomsday gap.
President Merkin Muffley: This is preposterous. I’ve never approved of anything like that.
Ambassador de Sadesky: Our source was the New York Times.”
Russia. Is it the only country not bowing to the Globalists?
Of course they are dangerous! But to whom?
I predict that Rey is the daughter of Luke Skywalker as a product of a short but intense romance, that Rey’s mother died when she was an infant, and that subsequently Rey was dropped off on Jakku by a stepfather-type figure who saw her as an illegitimate brat and wanted to get rid of her.
Nah, too obvious.
Some are saying that she is Obi Wan’s grand daughter. Maybe she’s Yoda’s niece. Or maybe Chewbacca’s cousin’s roommate’s sister-in-law’s au-pair’s sister?
Rey is a golden drop of sun.
2017 will be the year that property “investers” become FBs on a massive scale.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/12/30/warning-for-property-investors-in-australia-house-price-bubble/
” 2015-12-28 09:38:19
The S & P 500 gain for 2016 will be a double digit percent gain.
Gold will end the year above $1150.
Bitcoin will spike above $800.”
Someone got very close last year.
” 2015-12-28 09:38:19
The S & P 500 gain for 2016 will be a double digit percent gain.
Gold will end the year above $1150.
Bitcoin will spike above $800.”
Someone got very close with their prediction last year
Newport, OR Housing Prices Crater 5% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/newport-or/home-values/
Deadpool: Bill Clinton, Madonna, and maybe Sean Penn - probably lots of other deranged hollywood leftists that will drop as well but I havent paid attention to that den of fools in decades. Coroner lists cause of death as Trump Derangement Syndrome which officially becomes a “thing”. You could also throw in Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer, Dianne Feinswine, ((getting tired typing all these libtard fossils names!)) and Nancy Piglosi but they’ve been walking dead for years, so no one will notice them assuming room temperature. Hell, maybe then they’ll start to make sense for once!
It takes a village to keep Hillary upright.
Kalaheo, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 10% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/kalaheo-hi/home-values/
Trump Tweets Taunt: “Happy New Year To My Many Enemies Who Lost So Badly”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-31/trump-tweets-taunt-happy-new-year-my-many-enemies-who-lost-so-badly
Trump has elevated trolling to an artform, no doubt. Maybe one day his tweets will be in the Louvre.
More shock and awe(ful)
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/12/wow-former-nsa-employee-behind-russia-wikileaks-conspiracy-theories-caught-sending-dick-pics-online/
Doesn’t wall street seem to play risk free? This stock market seems so rigged it is mind boggling who would buy this cr@p..
Pension and mutual fund managers, and stock buybacks. In other words, people playing with other peoples money, thats who.
My prediction for 2017 is that Trump will underwhelm the Conservatives just as Obama underwhelmed the Liberals.
Republican or Democrat, we are voting for insiders who are not free to act on their own.
Here’s a safe one. Goldman Sachs emplyees and the Koch brothers and their minions will do well. Mind controlling liberals who act Progressive just to win votes will do well.
The poor folks such as myself and the posters here will muddle along in frustration and throw rocks at each other while the rich elitists of both parties will continue to control the global pursestrings.
I hate all the political rage because it comes from basically good people who want to make things better, but we get roped into hating people who only vary a hair from our own political views.
Pride goeth before a fall as the Bible says. If we gave up our pride just a smudge, we might have clear enough eyesight to see who the real enemy is.
About real estate. I learned from Neil on this blog that the low would come in 2012 with all the toxic loans imploding. That is the year I bought. In my 54 years I have seen a fairly consistent 7 year cycle with real estate. That would put the next high in real estate at 2019. That is when I plan to sell and get out of the hellhole that is Southern California. I see no rational reason to dispute that prediction, but the world is a volatile place. Even the Republican and Democrat elitists can’t play God all the time.
“The poor folks such as myself and the posters here will muddle along in frustration and throw rocks at each other while the rich elitists of both parties will continue to control the global pursestrings.”
That seems like a very safe prediction!
just as Obama underwhelmed the Liberals
Didn’t he sign an executive order to allow men to use the ladies’ room? That has to count for something, right?
California gender rights law goes much further.
Sept. 29, 2016, 3:34 p.m.
Single-user restrooms to become ‘gender neutral’ in California
Patrick McGreevy
Edgar Lopez, a maintenance worker with the city of West Hollywood, cleans the front door of a restroom at Plummer Park. (Al Seib / Los Angeles Times)
Single-user bathrooms in public buildings in California will soon become “gender neutral” so anyone can use any restroom, a result of legislation signed Thursday by Gov. Jerry Brown.
Assemblyman Phil Ting (D-San Francisco) said his bill moves California in the opposite direction of some states that restricted the ability of transgender people to choose which bathrooms to use.
“California is charting a new course for equality,” Ting said in a statement. “Restricting access to single-user restrooms by gender defies common sense and disproportionately burdens the LGBT community, women, and parents or caretakers of dependents of the opposite gender.”
He noted that 19 states this year have considered restricting access to restrooms, locker rooms and other facilities based on the user’s biological sex.
The new law in California was championed by Equality California, a gay rights group that cited a 2013 study by the UCLA Williams Institute that found 70% of transgender and gender non-conforming people face serious threats, including verbal harassment, when using gender-specific restrooms.
“This law is a simple measure that will make everyone’s lives easier,” added Kris Hayashi, executive director of the Transgender Law Center.
…
I’ve seen single user restrooms for both genders for years. I fail to see how that is the same as allowing men into women’s locker rooms.
Seems like more of a victory soundbite for the LGBTQUIA lobby than a substantial story.
Seems like the entire state is going to pot.
News
California’s marijuana production is already mind boggling
Dec. 29, 2016
Updated 2:26 p.m.
By KURT SNIBBE / STAFF
GREEN STATE
California was known as a major marijuana-producing state before it legalized recreational use. Just how big of a producer may surprise you.
…
Michael aka Michelle must be happy….cant disappoint the wifey.
it would have been so easy to just designate the handicapped bathroom as an all gender one.. or just like most fast food places 1 to a bathroom with an occupied / empty sign on the door knob….
but he promised to drain the swamp and build a wall…. and i gave him my love.
you got schlonged.
you got schlonged
2019 will likely be closer to a bottom than a top. San Diego kicked off bubble 1.0 after 9/11/01 and Rancho Santa Fe peaked end of 2003 on a price per square foot basis. Then the cooling spread downwards, didnt hit the low end until 2005 or so. So you generally get only about 3 years of high single digit to low double digit appreciation. Market cant support more than that. We’ve already peaked in this cycle, only fools hear the music still playing.
Rancho Santa Fe peaked end of 2003 on a price per square foot basis. Then the cooling spread downwards, didnt hit the low end until 2005 or so.
I didn’t realize that PPSF peaked that early! I do remember San Diego as the place that peaked first on the Case-Shiller data, in Dec 2005 IIRC.
As I mentioned a couple of days ago, I visited a colleague at his home in Rancho Santa Fe earlier this week. I was duly impressed by the number of For Sale signs on display in the lawns of this tony enclave. By comparison, there are many more visible signs of a buyer’s market over there than in our relatively modest Rancho Bernardo neighborhood.
This.
This is the most astute, intelligent comment I’ve read on this blog in over two years.
‘you generally get only about 3 years of high single digit to low double digit appreciation.’
We’ve got 600 years of RE data that shows house prices go up a little more than inflation, like 1% or less. This reflection on the past 15 or 20 years is looking at mania time IMO.
There should not be hit flipping TV shows, much less multiple hit flipping shows. These are not normal times when it comes to house buying. I lived for many years before I ever heard of someone paying more than asking for a house or camping out for a condo. These are historically recent events, as are these price increases. It’s not established real estate norms.
“This reflection on the past 15 or 20 years is looking at mania time IMO.”
It’s amazing how many people’s will to stupidity leaves them vulnerable to this fundamental misinterpretation of the Housing Bubble era as normal.
I 100% agree with the idea that housing will eventually revert to the mean, but as the saying goes “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”.
It’s pretty simple math. Wages go up x% per year on average. It’s not possible for the cost of any necessity (shelter, food, water) to increase in excess of x% per year indefinitely. Because eventually that results in the costs of necessities exceeding people’s wages. Revolutions start when people can’t afford food and/or shelter.
Yet for 30 years housing prices have been out of control. I’m young, so that’s about as long as I’ve been alive. In that time there was a brief period where prices dropped to be in line with historical norms. Then they quickly reverted back to “out of control”. Even though I believe reversion to the mean is inevitable, I can’t assume it will happen in my lifetime. Nor can I assume that if it does happen it will be a long-term trend. Why should I; the market has already shown itself to be capable of being irrational for decades and have a short memory. Other countries have even crazier markets in terms of price to income ratios and have had them for similar durations. And now that housing is part of everyone’s pensions and 401ks as a result of mortgage backed securities and securitized rental properties, there’s all the more incentive to keep this house of cards propped up. They can’t prop it up forever, but there’s enough money invested that they’ll prop it up as long as they can.
At some point you have to play the hand you’re dealt. We live in a manipulated market. A decision to buy or not buy largely depends on how long a person believes the market will be manipulated and propped up.
It wasn’t until 1996 that housing prices deviated from long term price trend. Two price collapses were interfered with. Now it’s global.
Sit tight, stay out of debt and hold onto every dollar you’ve got. You’ll thank me later.
Agree with all. (My previous comment was to Joyce’s comments at start of this thread.) I don’t really care about the politics, either side. The divisive politics left-right game is just part of the plan of the ‘Powers that Shouldn’t Be’ divide and conquer strategy.
I have been a long time reader here; saved me a bundle and taught me much about bubble mentality, and the con men running the country, back in ‘07, ‘08 especially. Using knowledge learned here I sold my house in Cali last summer, after 13 years there. Cleared completely out of the U.S. with money from sale. Now living cheaply and decently in Oil City, S.E. Asia! No snow friendly natives, no talk of Trump or Killery; life is good.
I have also donated to Ben in the past, whether one agrees or not with the poltics, you should donate as well, if you have gotten anything here. Thank you Ben, and all others.
Happy New Year, Ben and everyone else!
I don’t have a prediction for 2017, but rather a hope. Trump has said that he loves real estate crashes because then he can buy at low prices. I’m hoping he might push the Fed to raise rates accordingly, even though they’re supposedly independent.
As for all the political talk in general… I see things as being pretty hopeless, in a similar way to what ‘james joyce’ articulated above. (Nice comment, james. I’m in SoCal as well, plotting my way out. But for me, it’s really just due to real estate prices. I don’t have any general sort of anti-California.)
When you get past all of the various political policies, there’s one thing I really don’t like about Trump. He stiffs so many vendors and forces them to sue him, at which time most settle for less than what was orginally bargained for. There’s a lot of evidence of this. Even second hand, I know a developer here in SoCal who did a project with Trump and said it’s true, and that he’s never work with him again. And this developer does quite well for himself.
So basically, I think Trump is unethical and obnoxious in business. And I’d hardly consider him any sort of success story given what dad did for him.
In terms of policy, I have no idea where we’re heading. I’m not sure anyone does, including Trump. As james joyce said, the one thing we know for sure is that the progressive fans and liberty fans will hurl insults at each other instead of having thoughtful, specific policy debates.
President Donald Trump lives in your empty skull, rent free.
Hollywood, CA Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/hollywood-los-angeles-ca/home-values/
We need the IMF to start buying treasuries this year.
“Trump has said that he loves real estate crashes because then he can buy at low prices.”
Here’s to hoping Trump drains the GSE swamp at Phoney and Fraudie.
And the reason my hopefulness is a fool’s errand (hint…the Treasury Secretary nominee is another Goldman Sachs alum and a former mortgage banker):
Opinion
Fixing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Will Trump Give Wall Street Another Gift?
Reuters
By Marc Joffe
December 12, 2016
President-elect Trump’s selection of a former mortgage banker as Treasury secretary signals the incoming administration’s intention to finally settle the status of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-sponsored housing finance behemoths that were bailed out and brought under federal conservatorship in 2008.
Secretary-designate Steve Mnuchin told Fox Business that Fannie and Freddie should be freed from government conservatorship, causing shares in the two entities to soar and enriching hedge fund managers Bill Ackman, John Paulson and other speculators betting on such an outcome. While privatization is warranted, it needs to be done in a way that serves the interests of taxpayers rather than those of well-connected hedge fund investors.
…
Trump and “draining swamp” are two mutually exclusive things. One cannot happen with the other one being in power and Trump is a part of the swamp. His cabinet is the reflection of his policies.
The FED has made the markets look risk free.
And the more they do this, the more crazy, near-certain-to-lose gambles people will make.
Seems like a crappy way to run an economy.
it seems like the more bonds they buy , the more interest revenue revenue comes in to send out food stamp checks.
ballooning_housing_inventory
No such thing, the housing shortage is worse than 2015, that in turn was worse than 2014.
With 25 million excess empty and defaulted houses and growing by the day, there are plenty of houses out there.
my new years resolution if for all of you to stop being debbie downers.
If you tell me what soup line you’ll be frequenting in 2017, I’ll make a donation.
Soup lines?? The dollar menu is the new soup line.
Interest rates going up up up!
Eventually all sure-thing one-way bets collapse on the betttors. Tis the nature of asset bubbles to collapse on the latest, greatest fools to jump in.
In 2017, many people in the retail world are going to lose their jobs.
http://www.businessinsider.com/stores-closing-macys-kohls-walmart-sears-2016-12
This was interesting:
‘When an anchor store like Sears or Macy’s closes, it often triggers a “downward spiral in performance” for shopping malls, Morningstar analysts wrote in the report from October.
‘The malls don’t only lose the income and shopper traffic from that store’s business. The closure often triggers “co-tenancy clauses” that allow the remaining mall tenants to exercise their right to terminate their leases or renegotiate the terms, typically with a period of lower rents, until another retailer moves into the vacant anchor space. ‘
Sort of like a neighborhood when one or two houses have weeds in the front yard that are waist high and they’re still occupied… you know that this economic cohort has stress fractures.
How did your 2016 investments do ? Calpers needs 7% did you beat that ?
I think the S&P did ~11% small caps better bonds worse.
Handy tool
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio
2016 was a surprisingly good year for my investments. Overall total return was in the mid-high single digits. No real stinkers this year, and some really did well (small cap index was the leader for me).
Even money market accounts have risen off of their generational low yields. 7 day yield on Vanguard Money Market was 73 bps when I looked earlier this week.
The bond bull market is extremely long in the tooth. I wonder if we’ve switched to a secular rising rate environment or if this is just a head fake.
For 2017 I’m mulling over going out longer on the yield curve (but not too long) for the fixed income allocation, maybe move from an ultra-short term investment grade to a short term investment grade allocation. Treasury yields are still very skinny.
The strong US$ makes international equities look attractive, but China scares the poop outta me right now.
For the past couple years I’ve been using 4% to 5% as a benchmark portfolio total return assumption for long range planning in retirement accounts. This past year was better than that, so that helps make up for a relatively flat 2015.
“The bond bull market is extremely long in the tooth. I wonder if we’ve switched to a secular rising rate environment or if this is just a head fake.”
We’ve had no shortage of head fakes thus far at the supposed end of the bond bull.
Predictions for 2017:
1-Someone comes along and finally recognizes that successful Communist/Marxists are Capitalists.
2- We raise interest rates three times and the Market cracks.
3- Nike starts a line of rubber boots that become a fashion item in coastal areas.
4- Real estate muddles along until the fourth quarter of 2017.
5- Miami announces another wave of condo construction funded by the laundering of money which is now acceptable in municipal Miami political circles.
6- I am appointed in Trump’s administration to the newly formed cabinet post, Secretary of Asphalt, fulfilling a personal life-long dream.
7- Oklahoma appoints a legislative team to study how they can market earthquakes.
8- Water rights become a jurisdiction issue for fifty States.
9- Goldman Sachs announces that it knew nothing about anything that people claimed Goldman Sachs knew about.
10- “Over-capacity” comes back into the lexicon of speech.
11- Bed, Bath and Beyond announce store closings arising from AMZ encroachments.
12- Greece announces that it’s still here and it requests to be put back into the weekly news on Wednesdays.
13 - A spelling team at the Federal reserve publishes a paper explaining why the “n” in Wednesday comes after the letter “d”.
14- Janet Yellin explains “backwardation” and “contango” at a Senate hearing and three distinguished Senators fall asleep during her testimony.
15- CALPERS announce that their projected ROI for their pensions will no longer be published until new studies are completed in the fourth quarter of 2020.
16- The rent for coastal apartments rise 7-10%.
A healthy New Year to one and All !!!
“8- Water rights become a jurisdiction issue for fifty States.”
This is something the fed can’t print-away.
“3- Nike starts a line of rubber boots that become a fashion item in coastal areas.”
Didn’t Al Gore make that prediction in January 2006?
Five Ways We Know Al Gore’s Been Running A Global Warming Racket
1/22/2016
http://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/al-gore-runs-global-warming-racket/
Just like last time, Seattle will be one of the last cities to crash.
Will it happen in 2017?
No idea.
Oh, and Trump will not drain the swamp. His pick for the DOT head proves that. Our agency (under the DOT) has been hiring like crazy since the election, fully expecting to see a hiring freeze in early 2017.
Don’t get smug,non essentials
“Trump will not drain the swamp.”
I guess you are just expressing your personal hopes for the future since you don’t apparently have a crystal ball. Did you expect him to hire only Grilled Cheese Truck Drivers?
For me and what I hope for it is an end to Clinton style grifting, payola and subterfuge. A person’s skill set does not reflect their agenda. We will see what we get.
You’re looking in the rearview mirror my friend.
Beacon Hill Seattle WA Housing Prices Crater 12% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/beacon-hill-seattle-wa/home-values/
buying a house made me feel part of the community.
I feel the parties coming to an end; but I suppose the central banker’s could spike the punch again, will it work though.
The QE spiking apparently amounts to three times the dot-com and housing bubble combined, but cognitive dissonance will likely signal that they haven’t spiked enough. Print baby print.
I’ve noticed that household-based data is now showing steep growth slowdowns or even negative numbers in employment and labor force change, in more and more of the country. This data includes the self-employed.
The establishment survey still shows employment growing. This only includes wage and salary workers.
There is usually a steep downward adjustment of the establishment survey early in a recession, once the actual unemployment insurance tax data comes in. We may see that this March. “It’s a rigged system.”
New York’s incredibly expensive new subway explains why we can’t have nice things
http://www.businessinsider.com/second-avenue-subway-cost-nyc-infrastructure-2016-12
I see three possible new factors:
1) It’s possible that there is a loss of confidence in the “wealth effect” at the central banks around the world. Evidence for this: Raghuram Rajan’s (former Indian central bank head) truthiness about this; ECB and Japan being slightly less enthusiastic in their Operation Borrow/Print activities; US Central bank stated hawkishness on interest rates.
2) House prices are around the last bubble peak, allow the big players to unload those assets, thus completing the “foaming of the runaway” for the big asset holders.
3) The PTB hates Trump. Now that he’s (almost) in office, they’ll be more willing to rip bandaids off and blame him for any short term dislocation. Just like the perception that post-election, the MSM is more willing to report bad news. I suspect a paradoxical result from their backing off on their policies to protect/support the system that led to the 2008 crisis and their subsequent redistributionist policies. That paradoxical result is that it will actually be good for the society, resulting in a more broadbased recovery, rather than one only for existing asset holders and those workers tied directly to government spending. A broadbased recovery will also reduce population inflows into the few hot job markets around the country.
YMMV of course.
My Mid-2016 prediction is here of interest because of some of the data links.
I’m late, but I’ll give it a shot. This is the year that more of the same ends, we begin to revert to the mean, and things start to get weird. There’s just too much artifice, lying, criminality, imbalance, and overall fakeness in the global and domestic economies for the various bubbles, housing and otherwise, to continue. I’m not sure how the new Administration will address things, but it’s plain that many in the elite want Trump to fail — far more than who wanted Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, or Obama to fail. They will push for that failure regardless of consequences to the rest of the country, because they no longer identify with the rest of the country. I actually believe somebody, or some entity, threatened by Trump, or other embodiments of nationalism or political populism, may trigger a minor financial crisis on purpose. With so many interconnected aspects to the system, it could be like pulling out the Jenga piece that topples the wobbly tower. Russia will be blamed. In fact, I suspect that’s why the tense relationship with Russia was manufactured: members of our elite know the jig is up, and they need a scapegoat lest they face the music.
I completely agree with Oxide’s post up-thread that it’s now going to be politically and socially acceptable for the mainstream media to report bad economic news.
Beyond this year, I give Trump a 50-50 chance at finishing his term before he either quits, is impeached, or is forcibly deposed. His replacement might be selected by Constitutional means, or he/she might not be. One possible replacement, especially if we are in the midst of an economic collapse: a “bipartisan” Presidential committee comprised of various establishment political, military, economic, and social figures, potentially including Janet Yellen, David Petraeus, Condoleeza Rice, Larry Summers, Jamie Dimon, Lindsey Graham, Joe Biden, Jeb Bush, Tim Kaine, a few Silicon Valley moguls, and Caitlyn Jenner, who will rule while Congress is temporarily dissolved and elements of the Constitution are suspended. Cash will be abolished, surveillance of all kinds will increase, and contrarian websites will be persecuted. The Washington Post, as the official newspaper of empire, will cheer developments.
That’s some crazy s#!t right there, charmer.