Suffering A Hangover From A Construction Binge
A report from the Dawson Creek Mirror in Canada. “Housing prices in Tumbler Ridge are recovering after a double-digit drop brought on by a crash in the region’s coal industry. The improved prices come one year after assessment values plummeted a province-worst 34 per cent following the shuttering of the area’s coal mines. Jennifer Marsel, a realtor with Royal LePage Cascade Realty, said economic conditions in the town are improving after Conuma Coal Resource reopened a pair of mines acquired from Walter Energy last year. ”
“While she’s seen only modest signs of recovery in the housing market, she expects things will pick up soon as miners go back to work. ‘It hasn’t happened so much yet, it was more in anticipation of (the mines) reopening, which (led) investors to jump in,’ she said. While the town’s outlook is improving, she said all but a handful of houses were selling for less than $100,000. The majority of those were court-ordered sales, she said.”
From Live Mint in India. “Rohit Agarwal, 47, a retired army officer based in Delhi, recently shifted from a rented two-bedroom-hall-kitchen house to a three-bedroom house in the same locality. But strangely, the rent for the bigger house was the same. The Agarwals had been living in the earlier house for the past 7 years, during which time the rent had doubled to what it was initially. ‘Almost every year, the house owner increased the rent by 10% or more, as is the norm in Delhi,’ he said.”
“According to ArthaYantra’s Annual Buy v/s Rent Report 2017, there was an average decline of 7.67% in annual rent of residential properties in the past 1 year in Delhi. Many localities have seen a much steeper decline. According to the report, there was a decline of about 27% in rental values in Safdarjung Enclave in South Delhi. Other cities too have seen rents fall in the past 1 year. ‘As prices have not appreciated much, many investors have decided rent their property rather than sell it. This has increased supply and put pressure on the rental market,’ said Ankur Dhawan, chief business officer, PropTiger, a real estate consultancy.”
The Australian Financial Review. “Over one-third of the cranes building Australia’s next wave of apartments due for completion in the coming two years sit in postcodes ‘blacklisted’ by lenders, raising concerns about settlement failures across the country. New analysis of RLB’s crane index shows that about 38 per cent of cranes counted across Australia’s skylines in the September quarter were located inside areas flagged by lenders as problem spots in which they are seeking to reduce or restrict lending.”
“Of the 625 cranes in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Gold Coast and Adelaide 239 are within city postcodes singled out by National Australia Bank and AMP for measures such as lower loan-to-value ratios. These lower ratios mean buyers may have to come up with more equity at settlement than they expected at the time of purchase. Brisbane is the worst, with nearly 57 per cent of all cranes located in problem areas, the highest ratio of all the cities. ‘It could be that there has been increased investor activity in Brisbane due to the current differential between residential prices particularly when compared to Sydney,’ said RLB director of research and development Stephen Ballesty.”
From The Pulse on Nigeria. “With frozen cranes, deserted construction sites and empty buildings, Lagos is suffering a hangover from a construction binge as Nigeria wrestles to overcome a damaging recession. Look no further than Eko Atlantic, billed as the largest real estate project in Africa, where frenetic construction has slowed to a snail’s pace. Just one year ago, it was a symbol of the promise of Lagos, when Nigeria was still the continent’s number one economy. But today it is mostly an expanse of sand, interrupted by two lonely ultra-modern skyscrapers and a couple of roads lined with young palm trees.”
“Pierre Edde, development director at South Energyx, a subsidiary of developers, the Chagoury group, said some 80 percent of the plots for sale had already been bought but investors were still wary and ‘waiting for positive signals to get started’ on building construction, he told AFP.”
“Dapo Abe, who heads an engineering consulting firm in Lagos, estimated that some 60 percent of major construction projects — both public and private — are currently shut down. ‘No bank wants to lend money, rent revenues no longer make it possible to repay construction costs, and there is no return on investment,’ he added.”
“Now the real estate market is left in an ironic situation: landlords of up-market office blocks and apartments are struggling to find occupants in the wealthy suburbs of Lagos. Yet at the same time, there is not enough housing stock for the city’s estimated 20 million-strong population. According to the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria, 16 million people currently need a house in Lagos.”
“In the past, Nigeria’s booming growth attracted real estate developers who scrambled to build high-rise condominiums and modern office blocks catered to the executive class in Lagos. Yet today many of those buildings have ‘to rent’ spray-painted in a red scrawl on the outside walls in a desperate bid to attract tenants. ‘Companies have reduced their activities and many expatriates have left,’ says Ade Kunle, a real estate agent.”
This is a little late as I lost internet connection for about 8 hours.
‘Just one year ago, it was a symbol of the promise of Lagos, when Nigeria was still the continent’s number one economy. But today it is mostly an expanse of sand, interrupted by two lonely ultra-modern skyscrapers and a couple of roads lined with young palm trees’
The most expensive residential real estate in the world in the summer of 2014.
Gul durn Russian hackers….
The most expensive residential real estate in the world in the summer of 2014.
Yow-za. The most bubblicious, I would hazard a guess.
‘Just one year ago, it was a symbol of the promise of Lagos, when Nigeria was still the continent’s number one economy. But today it is mostly an expanse of sand, interrupted by two lonely ultra-modern skyscrapers and a couple of roads lined with young palm trees.’
I guess there were heavy stock inflows after the election. People seem to like buying when prices are grossly overpriced. It is the same old bs over and over again. Wall street has this down to a science.
The fear of missing out on free money often drives people in at the wrong time because their greedy instincts.
I heard a Quicken ad yesterday pushing cash out refinancing.
Yes, Quicken has been doing this. Housing is the one thing that will drive the economy of a nation in the 2017’s and beyond. There are only so many financial sector positions which is a shrinking sector, teaching positions which is a shrinking sector, retail positions which is a shrinking sector, manufacturing positions which is a shrinking sector. Get the pattern? Every sector, with the exception of those that require specialized technical skills and expertise, is shrinking. So, what is the “common man” to do? Well, the “common man” can drive a truck, become a police officer, military (but that is shrinking also), or become a builder. Building houses will juice an economy like nothing else. There is a problem with this: you only need so many houses. Also, building restrictions will never allow demand to be met in NYC, LA, San Francisco, etc. We live in frustrating times.
Regards,
Roidy
‘building restrictions will never allow demand to be met in NYC, LA, San Francisco’
You haven’t been reading here much lately. The more common descriptions of these markets are glut, flood of supply, oversupplied, over-saturated, etc. Boston and Miami too. I have a post in the morning you’ll want to read.
It seems odd that all these coastal elites have sat on their @sses watching their stocks go up cause central bank interventions and their are a 100 million people out of work.
This whole thing feels so rigged. Most of america isn’t participating in this new found printing press wealth. That’s why DJT kicked @ss.
Important color Ben.
The oversupply is specifically with “luxury” housing. There is still tremendous unmet demand for more affordable housing in NYC, SF and LA.
My cousin is attending school in SF, but living at home north of the Golden Gate and commuting because she can’t find anything remotely affordable in the city.
“Luxury” is simply a distinction that gets marketed. It’s all the same depreciating junk.
Remember…… Housing demand is at 20 year lows and falling.
“Housing is the one thing that will drive the economy of a nation in the 2017’s and beyond.”
Housing can’t won’t and never has. For as long as housing prices remain 300% higher than long term trend, housing demand will remain at multi decade lows.
“There is a problem with this: you only need so many houses.”
Especially when the Baby Boomers are moving on from the bedroom communities where they resided over the past 50 years to Retirement Gardens, with no qualified Millennial buyers to buy their places.
No wonder Uncle Sam is trying to hand out federally guaranteed loans to anyone who can breath, as otherwise there would be an outright collapse of housing demand and prices.
What about the Gen Xers?
There is a problem with this: you only need so many houses.
Don’t tell that to the Chinese.
So, what is the “common man” to do? Well, the “common man” can drive a truck
Soon to be automated.
become a police officer
Lots of competition for that. In my little burg, most cops have bachelor degrees.
or become a builder.
Illegals everywhere.
http://www.businessinsider.com/toyota-is-skeptical-of-self-driving-tech-2017-1
It seems that every one of these articles cites the “regulatory environment” as a roadblock toward fully autonomous cars. Yeah, those evil government regulations which still require a driver in the car.
“People seem to like buying when prices are grossly overpriced. It is the same old bs over and over again.”
Buy high, sell low. Isn’t that what you are supposed to do?
Hayden, ID Housing Prices Crater 11% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/hayden-id/home-values/
Heckova job, central bankers.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/robbthe-housing-crisis-has-spread-everybody/
Barf alert….
http://www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2017/01/08/celebrities-pay-tribute-obama-farewell-video-never-cried-election-result/
People with fat 401k’s are having parties. 12% per yr!! Life is good.
Just make sure you’re one of the first to leave the party.
Nice picture of Arnie Grape.
Heh, the original Arnie Grape, not Tim Kaine. OTOH, he’s starting to look a bit like Kevin Spacey.
I’ll see your Barf alert and raise you one Dry heave alert.
Golden Globes: Obama Praises Movies, TV for Bringing “Diverse Tales to Life” in Program Congrats Letter
5:36 PM PST 1/8/2017 by Hilary Lewis
The letter, which can be seen in the below photo, says he and wife Michelle Obama send their greetings to those attending the show and praises film and television for presenting a diverse universe.
“Using the big and small screens to bring diverse tales to life, actors and actresses and creative visionaries behind the scenes have inspired us to find deeper meaning in our shared humanity,” Obama wrote. “By enabling us to see ourselves in each other and creating a space for the many narratives that reflect our rich and collective history, they remind us of the power of our voices and ideas and the ways they can shape our world for the better.”
Howard Stern had a bit about this, when actors describe other actors as being “a geeeenius.”
Kellyanne Conway IS the Streep-Slayer!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C1u2z_RXUAALta7.jpg
She’s lying. He mocked the guy’s disability.
This was also good:
“I’m concerned that somebody with a platform like Meryl Streep’s is inciting people’s worst instincts.”
— Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway, in an interview with Fox News.
Don’t care about Hollyweird’s opinion on pretty much everything.
I don’t grant much credence to people who make their living saying what someone else tells them to say.
Redmond, WA Housing Prices Crater 9% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/redmond-wa/market-trends/
Hilarious, Housing Analyst, and completely untrue. Things are hotter than ever here. Houses are going for $100K over asking.
LOL. Yeah, might want to leave the “analysis” to people who actually live here.
u need to start thing positive like DJT. If you are constantly thinking doom and gloom your life will be sh@t. Look in the mirror and say you are worthy of success 10 times.
“Things are hotter than ever here. Houses are going for $100K over asking.”
This is impressionable at best, an outright lie at worst. Is your shack on the market or something?
watch what the do, not what they say:
BY DAVID LIGHTMAN
WASHINGTON
Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have been adamant – the federal debt is way too high and has got to be tamed fast.
Cruz, a Republican from Texas, helped lead the 2013 fight against raising the debt limit, a fight that resulted in a partial government shutdown. Rubio, a Republican from Florida, in announcing his plans for this year, said Tuesday that “one major thing that will cost us jobs and hamstring our economy is our rising debt.”
So why did they and 49 other Senate Republicans vote this week to consider a measure that says the “appropriate levels of the public debt” would rise from the current $20 trillion to $29.1 trillion in 10 years? And predict deficits of $1 trillion by the end of that period?
Because, they said, it’s the first procedural step in repealing Obamacare. And they insisted the number is meaningless.
Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter.
Not sure what you are looking at….they let Obozo raise the debt by 9 trillion. Its the same Big Government people in charge.
Yup, there wasn’t much turnover in congress
It’s going to get even worse under Trump, as the early boomers enter the expensive medical stage, and the biggest chunk of Baby Boomers start taking SS and Medicare.
Houses are too big these days. We already know there are few people to buy all these houses. But who on earth is going to buy these giant 5000 foot monstrosities? I think we finally jumped the shark though. A house so big it has his and hers kitchens.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-his-and-hers-kitchen-1483628034
Watch’em crater. Then buy later for 75% less.
Did u know there was a band called crater tater? I was rocking out on youtube the other night thinking about cratering home prices.
Yeah. Donk really kicks up her hooves to Crater Tater.
Hee-haw!
BTW kitchens with multiple workstations have been around for a while. I’ve never seen them referred to as “his and hers.” At first I thought it was two separate kitchens.
lol@donk
Even if they’re cheaper later, why would you want such a monstrosity? Two kitchens? Keeping one kitchen clean is enough work. And imagine heating that in the winter and A/C’ing it in the summer, especially if it’s in a place with sky high utility rates, like California.
One of my Santa Clara colleagues actually had a place that big (not in Santa Clara, but out in the “country”). I was told that their summer electric bill was $800 a month.
Imagine how far prices will get pushed down for smaller square footage shacks.
crushing.housing.losses.
I think we finally jumped the shark though. A house so big it has his and hers kitchens.
Hey, if that means my knives are safe from use on plastic cutting boards and going in the dishwasher (as the mrs likes to do), then I’m in!
You won’t run your Wusthof or CutCo knives in the dishwasher?
Knives, nice wine glasses/decanters, and non-stick pots+pans get hand-washed if I have any say in the matter!
I’m a lot more liberal about what goes into the dishwasher than my wife. The only things I wash by hand is anything not labelled dishwasher safe. That pretty much limits it to the ceramic knives (I love those things), fine china and crystal ware.
The only things I consistently hand-wash is stemware (because it often breaks if I don’t), cast iron (gotta keep that seasoning), and older non-stick pans (the newer stuff is pretty good).
Deadbeat couple lives 80 months (and counting) rent free in a Manhattan loft because they’re entitled to, why else?
http://nypost.com/2017/01/08/couple-renting-chelsea-pad-hasnt-paid-rent-since-2010/
“Now the real estate market is left in an ironic situation: landlords of up-market office blocks and apartments are struggling to find occupants in the wealthy suburbs of Lagos. Yet at the same time, there is not enough housing stock for the city’s estimated 20 million-strong population. According to the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria, 16 million people currently need a house in Lagos.”
20 million peeps. 16 million need housing. Jeebus. Tick-tock.
Lock ‘er up.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hillary-clinton-unlikely-to-run-for-office-again-aide-says-2017-01-08?link=MW_latest_news
Debt-fueled “growth” is unsustainable, regardless of what the Keynesian fraudsters at the central banks and their media shills like Paul Krugman would have us believe.
http://dollarcollapse.com/debt/debt-surge-producing-fake-recovery/
debt created out of thin air! then when u default they want your stuff.
Eventually the bankers will demand you bend the knee. Homage.
When u default, they get to collect your stuff, due to the debt they created out of thin air before they loaned it to you to buy it.
Pretty nice system, if you are on the free money side of the equation.
Federal workers worry about their jobs under Trump
Baltimore Sun Baltimore Sun
John Fritze
2 hrs ago
Federal workers nationwide are bracing for reductions in head counts, civil service protections and salaries when President-elect Donald Trump and Congress turn their attention to government spending later this year.
Trump, who ran on a promise to “drain the swamp,” has identified hiring freezes at most federal agencies as a top priority for his early days in office. Republican lawmakers, many of whom have long advocated for reducing Washington’s workforce, are looking to cut benefits and make it easier to fire poor performers.
The threats and preliminary steps taken by Congress have created anxiety for many of the government’s 2.1 million employees.
“People don’t know what to believe, and they’re in a state of uneasiness,” said Witold Skwierczynski, a Catonsville, Md., who heads the American Federation of Government Employees council that oversees Social Security Administration field offices. “That’s the feeling I hear. People are unsettled.”
Fiscal conservatives, long stymied by President Barack Obama in their efforts to trim the government workforce, have read the November election as affirmation that voters want a slimmer federal bureaucracy. Though government employee issues were not discussed much during the election campaign, federal regulations and spending were central to Trump’s campaign.
Jason Pye, director of public policy at the Washington-based conservative group FreedomWorks, said he expects Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress to take steps quickly.
“There are too many people working in the federal government, too many federal agencies; there’s an alphabet soup,” he said. “What we’re simply saying is the federal government has grown too big.”
Eh, ya beat me to it. I’m recommending those out of work feral woikers go to the Midwest and get on that Fiat-Chrysler assembly line.
Indeed there is big change coming. If Trump vaporized the Dept of (un)Education, (lack of)Energy Dept, HUD, Interior at a minimum, we’d see economic and job growth accelerate like never before.
“The threats and preliminary steps taken by Congress have created anxiety for many of the government’s 2.1 million employees.”
Snowflakes have anxiety? Hehe.
I quit my Dept of Energy gig last year. They are probably funded through September 30, 2017, but after that there could be alot of sad pandas in that shiny NREL building
I know a woman who works at the USDA in Fort Collins who bought a BMW recently. In theory she works in IT, but when I asked her what she does, I learned that contractors do all the real work and she spends all her time in “meetings”
In theory she works in IT, but when I asked her what she does, I learned that contractors do all the real work and she spends all her time in “meetings”
Makes me think of Jen in “The IT Crowd”
That is a very apt description of her. She couldn’t code her way out of a paper bag.
I’d love to be a fly on the wall in those meetings she attends:
“So what do we do about the problem with project Y?”
“Well, the contractors say we should do X”
“X it is then.”
This is my first time back in a big company in quite a while. I’m definitely noticing that pattern too. I miss the field. Now I’m the guy in the meetings again. Ugghhh.
So you can confirm that it’s not only the government who has a managerial class who spend their days in “meetings,” yes?
Seems to be plenty of that in tech…at least “traditional” tech, if the company is big enough and successful enough that near term survival seems to be assured.
At my old job survival was not assured and everyone was much more focused on efficiency. The one good thing I can say at the new job is that at least some of that inefficiency means that problems are being solved correctly (by Japanese standards) rather than ignored or solved with baling wire and gorilla glue. But yeesh…the meetings required to do it right…
“…contractors do all the real work…”
You’re welcome.
The Pentagon’s shelved report shows a lot of savings can be had by simply not replacing every federal employee that retires.
Granted, I’d love to reduce jobs faster, but politically, I suspect that shrinking the 2.1 gradually will be more palatable.
You better worry.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/federal-workers-worry-about-their-jobs-under-trump/ar-BBy2Xlu
Then again, good news! Jobs being created in Michigan and Ohio. Fix it again, Tony! All those feed-ral workers can move on up to the Midwest and get on the assembly line. No porn surfing for you!
would not get too worked up about the new fed sheriff in town.
been there - done that.
nothing much happened with the test case of Arnold here on the left coast.
Oh sure, DMV got a lot faster after he fired the chief when he took office. . . . now its back to a crawl. w/nastier attitude.
no blowing up boxes as promised. etc etc.
He found out PDQ that one person cannot change a well established, corrupt, self serving organization that is supported by many, many other well established self serving corrupt organizations.
McCain’s lapdog and AIPAC’s errand boy, Lindsey Graham, says you’re not a Republican or a patriot if you welcomed Trump’s victory.
http://www.breitbart.com/video/2017/01/08/graham-calls-republicans-celebrating-russian-interference-a-political-hack-youre-not-a-patriot/
What about if you simply welcomed Hillary’s defeat? Or even that’s wrong?
The senator probably didn’t say what Ray said he said, so don’t worry about it.
Correct The Record defends Lindsey Graham.
Economy
Top Economists Grapple With Public Disdain for Initiatives They Championed
Economic conference in Chicago takes on exasperated tone after backlash against free trade and globalization
By Josh Zumbrun
Jan. 8, 2017 6:05 p.m. ET
CHICAGO—The nation’s leading economists are suffering an identity crisis as many of the institutions they helped build and causes they advanced have come in for public scorn and rejection at the ballot box.
…
Hope n’ change comes to Sears.
http://www.businessinsider.com/sears-failing-stores-closing-edward-lampert-bankruptcy-chances-2017-1
It’s game-over, man… game-over!
http://www.wavlist.com/movies/306/alns-gameover.wav
’she said all but a handful of houses were selling for less than $100,000. The majority of those were court-ordered sales’
This used to be the land of the $500,000 single-wide trailer. There’s still some who aren’t going to give it away:
http://www.point2homes.com/CA/Real-Estate-Listings/BC/Dawson-Creek.html
Dow 20k is just not meant to be.
Is it getting time to “rinse the sheeple?
Buying now is like paying full asking price.
Nah, they’re gonna push it just to say they did it, and then after that, the deluge!
I want my Dow 20,000 hat! Hopefully I’ll get as much wear out of it as the 10k hat…which will probably be useful at least one more time.
Nobel Peace Prize recipient.
Bombed seven countries while President.
Was the only US President EVER to be at war during every single day of an eight-year Presidency.
Leaving office with his Party so totally defeated, disgraced and in disarray that they have to blame it on “the Russians”.
Claimed unprecedented power to kill anyone anywhere regardless of US citizenship on his authority alone. I think it’s important to remind people of that one.
Nobel Peace Prize recipient.
Who bragged that he was good at killing people
Leaving office with his Party so totally defeated, disgraced and in disarray that they have to blame it on “the Russians”.
The butt hurt is strong with them. Maybe, had they focused on real problems instead of getting men into the ladies room, maybe, just maybe, they might not have lost.
“Was the only US President EVER to be at war during every single day of an eight-year Presidency.”
Constantly struggling with Israel’s problems… like caring for a strong autistic teenager.
“Union Servitude Ends In Kentucky: State Kills Prevailing Wages, Passes Right-To-Work”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-08/union-servitude-ends-kentucky-state-kills-prevailing-wages-passes-right-work
Now watch business flood to Kentucky and state GDP skyrocket. The people of Kentucky know what accelerates the economy.
Now watch business flood to Kentucky and state GDP skyrocket.
That’s highly unlikely.
Also, that headline is just more evidence that the ZeroHedge party line exists to advance the interests of the wealthy. Everyone else can go f— themselves.
Easy Meltdown easy!
That’s what happens when prices fall. Economic activity accelerates and job growth skyrockets.
Read.Listen.Learn.
Oh really, where did you read, listen and learn about that?
You’re not a classroom type Meltdown.
Washington Post and CNN are fake news.
Rohit Agarwal, 47, a retired army officer based in Delhi,
Army officers in India must get the same retirement that the US military gets. I wonder what sort of job, if any, this guy has now. Probably a slow paper-pusher and bribe-collector.
Good guess, especially on the bribe collector thing.
A memory I have from Mexico City in the early 1980’s was at the driver’s license office. You had to work your way through several windows, and each one had a “tip jar”. Since I was generous when tipping I never had to take a test and was out of there with my new license in no time flat.
Here is one about Perth’s (AU) housing market. I didn’t download the PDF but the summary indicates they had a boom-bust cycle with mining, and they are in the bust mode now. They call it a smashed avocado toast market.
–
“Perth is producing the opposite: rents are falling faster than prices. This means the property market is unattractive to both speculative and value investors…”
“Market power has swung decisively from investors to tenants… The fall in housing prices is also good news for aspiring first home buyers, as is the downturn in sales volumes.”
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/01/perths-housing-market-smashed-avocado-toast/