Questions About How Long The Current Boom Can Last
A report from National Mortgage News. “Houston’s once-red-hot economy has cooled considerably since the days when oil was selling for more than $100 a barrel and that has forced commercial real estate lender Jody Proler to be far more selective when pursuing new business. ‘Houston was clearly oversupplied in Class A office space. There were energy companies that leased out space and literally never put a single person in the building,’ said Proler.”
“Slowing economies in energy hotbeds like Houston and North Dakota help explain why delinquency rates on loans tied to office and hotel properties are on the rise. According to Trepp, a New York-based provider of securities and investment data, the total value of delinquent commercial mortgage-backed securities that were secured by loans on office buildings climbed nearly 6% in 2016 when compared with a year earlier, to $8.7 billion. The total value of delinquent CMBS secured by hotels rose 12.1% to $2.3 billion in the same period.”
“But weakness in the energy sector explains only part of the increase in problem commercial real estate loans. A surge in new construction has led to an oversupply of office space in several urban markets, including Washington, D.C. Also, many CMBS issuances that are currently delinquent are backed by loans in which banks overvalued the properties in the first place, said Matthew Anderson, managing director at Trepp. Many of those loans were originated before the financial crisis, he said.”
“‘You may have thought we were done with the excesses of the past, but we still have loans from the previous peak still causing reverberations in the market today,’ Anderson said.”
“Look no further than North Dakota to understand how CMBS delinquencies can mirror trouble spots, Anderson said. The state’s economy started to boom in 2006 when hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, in the Bakken shale region took off. Developers scrambled to build hotels and apartment buildings to deal with the influx of workers. But vacancy rates at all those hotels and apartment buildings have soared, depressing their value. About two-dozen CMBS issuances based on North Dakota projects were in delinquency status in December 2016, according to Trepp. They include a $27 million loan for the States Addition Apartment project in Dickinson, N.D.”
“The Houston-area economy has also struggled because of the energy sector’s downturn, and scores of nearly empty office buildings now dot the landscape, Proler said. There were 19 CMBS issuances on Houston-area properties in delinquency status in December.”
The Los Angeles Times in California. “Downtown Los Angeles is undergoing its largest construction boom in modern times — an explosion juiced by foreign investment that’s adding thousands of residences, construction jobs and a multitude of shops and restaurants. To find a time of greater construction one would have to go back to the Roaring ’20s, when many of downtown’s most famous historic buildings were erected.”
“But the epicenter, arguably, is the South Park neighborhood. And like the 1980s — when Japanese investment flooded downtown — foreign dollars are playing a major role. From 2014 until this summer, Chinese developers were involved in at least seven of 18 land deals downtown valued in excess of $19 million, according to real estate firm Transwestern. However, the upcoming flood of apartments — in addition to other developments — is increasingly raising questions about how long the current boom can last.”
“Landlords of new apartment buildings are now offering incentives to sign a lease. That includes Carmel Partners, which is offering up to eight weeks free rent to lure new tenants at Eighth & Grand. As a result, lenders and investors are growing more cautious on projects they will fund — a pullback underway in other marquee markets across the nation, including New York City and San Francisco. ‘I think everyone is more selective,’ said Chris Casey, managing director of capital markets for JLL, noting that investors are waiting to see how well the new projects lease up.”
The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “South Boston rarely takes kindly to change, no matter how well-intentioned. But City Hall recently adopted a major change that even hidebound residents might embrace: new zoning regulations that will impact virtually the entire neighborhood. The rules are an attempt to restore order to a booming neighborhood that can feel like a giant construction site.”
“The new parking requirements will also increase building costs, making some projects prohibitively expensive. That could slow the pace of construction in what has been the hottest neighborhood in Boston’s building boom. ‘I’ve been told by developers that it will slow down the development in South Boston, which is probably a good thing because we are getting oversaturated,’ said Joanne McDevitt, president of the City Point Neighborhood Association.”
The Wall Street Journal on New York. “A sharp slowdown in co-op sales has hit the rarefied upper end of the market especially hard. Sales of all co-ops were down 12% in 2016 compared with 2015, while sales of co-ops that sold for $4 million or more were down about 26%, a Wall Street Journal analysis found. The decline in activity has been so steep that many real-estate brokers are wondering whether luxury co-ops, with their rigid rules and complex financial reviews for buyers, are permanently losing ground to towering new condominium buildings offering cushy amenities and less-rigorous rules.”
“‘Clearly the very high-end co-op market is pretty dead,’ said Kirk Henckels, director of private brokerage at Stribling & Associates.”
From Loudoun Now in Virginia. “A draft report on Loudoun County’s future housing needs projects a major shortage of residential units by 2040—but other reports may show just the opposite. The Loudoun Department of Planning and Zoning has counted 131,440 housing units in the county already, with at least 51,787 more permitted under current zoning and in developments already underway. Allowing for some upzoning, county planners estimate up to 185,749 may be built in the county under current conditions—before even considering the Board of Supervisors ambitious plans around future Silver Line Metro stops.”
“‘These forecasts assume no substantial changes to local or other policies to target particular household types,’ notes the GMU housing needs assessment. But substantial changes are coming down the pike, to say the least: The county is planning for up to 15,109 additional housing units, mostly townhouses and apartments, around the Silver Line through 2040.”
“Measuring those Silver Line and current buildout numbers against the GMU study, the county is planning to be seriously overbuilt, with up to 198,336 housing units available by 2040 but demand for only 167,600—leaving nearly 31,000 houses, townhomes, and apartments standing empty or unbuilt.”
Nobel Peace Prize recipient.
Bombed seven countries while President.
Was the only US President EVER to be at war during every single day of an eight-year Presidency.
Leaving office with his Party so totally defeated, disgraced and in disarray that they have to blame it on “the Russians”.
Claimed unprecedented power to kill anyone anywhere regardless of US citizenship on his authority alone. I think it’s important to remind people of that one.
“Claimed unprecedented power to kill anyone anywhere regardless of US citizenship on his authority alone.”
Heh-heh. First the Pulse Nightclub, then Ft. Lauderdale Airport. The nightclub shooter’s wife just POOF! vanished into thin air, Loretta Lynch and Comey just shrug and smile sheepishly and say “Oops, we have no idee WHERE she went, tee-hee.”
The father goes to Hillary rallies like nothing is out of the ordinary.
They’re schittin’ on us here in Florida. They were emboldened by 9/11.
Dont mess with the USA! USA! USA!! USA!!! Peace through STRENGTH!!!
“Was the only US President EVER to be at war during every single day of an eight-year Presidency.”
Wait banana I thought you would like this, I mean he’s killing Arabs right?
Wait…., Bush signed a treaty with Iraq, the “war” is long over.
The U.S.–Iraq Status of Forces Agreement (official name: Agreement Between the United States of America and the Republic of Iraq On the Withdrawal of United States Forces from Iraq and the Organization of Their Activities during Their Temporary Presence in Iraq) was a status of forces agreement (SOFA) between Iraq and the United States, signed by President George W. Bush in 2008. It established that U.S. combat forces would withdraw from Iraqi cities by June 30, 2009, and all U.S. combat forces will be completely out of Iraq by December 31, 2011.[1] The pact required criminal charges for holding prisoners over 24 hours, and required a warrant for searches of homes and buildings that were not related to combat.[1] U.S. contractors working for U.S. forces would have been subject to Iraqi criminal law, while contractors working for the State Department and other U.S. agencies would retain their immunity. If U.S. forces committed still undecided “major premeditated felonies” while off-duty and off-base, they would have been subjected to an undecided procedures laid out by a joint U.S.-Iraq committee if the U.S. certified the forces were off-duty.[2][3][1][4]
The agreement expired at midnight on December 31, 2011, even though the United States completed its final withdrawal of troops from Iraq on December 16, 2011. The symbolic ceremony in Baghdad officially “cased” (retired) the flag of U.S. forces in Iraq, according to army traditio
Seven years after being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his “extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples,” despite having been in office for less than one year and having pretty much no actual, tangible foreign diplomacy accomplishments at the time, President Obama will depart the White House having dropped 26,171 bombs on foreign countries around the world in 2016, 3,027 more than 2015.
Zerohedge
houston
dude the crash was in 2015
good thing I sell deflation
‘I’ve been told by developers that it will slow down the development in South Boston, which is probably a good thing because we are getting oversaturated,’ said Joanne McDevitt, president of the City Point Neighborhood Association.”
It’s ALL good. Good on the way up, good on the way down. Good Good Good!
We’re oversaturated! What does that even mean? Like a sponge full of water is saturated, then soak it some more so it starts to drip.
What is the attraction of Boston, anyway? I lived there for two years, couldn’t get out fast enuf. Cold, gray, gloomy. Impossible to drive there in 1980, can’t imagine what it’s like now.
I’m on my way out! I moved to Maine for a yr and now north of Boston for another year, I’m so excited to return to VA with way more reasonable cost of living, business friendly laws/regs, gun laws, lower taxes, better weather, and a lot less bunch of brainwashed Patriot fans who are obsessed with “Dunkies”.
Unfrotunately my SO has not seen the light and refuses to leave New England….just this morning I had to wait 15 mins to get the damn frost of my windows in my car…it was 5 degrees.
Don’t get me wrong, New England has its charms and there’s no better place to be for three months of summer, on the shore in Rhode Island.
November through April is the pits, with the exception of the early blooms of spring and a bit of holiday cheer at Christmas.
I grew up in warwick
no one ever goes back
Toll Gate grad here.
Couldn’t get out of there fast enough.
In Austin now. Glad I left.
True, but many of my friends and relatives never left
Warrick
VA beach should be booming w a few extra ships on the way
+1 on the brainwashed Patriot fans. They all think Brady is the damn GOAT QB. Brady has had the luxury of mooching his good stats off a great team and extraordinary coach for years. Talented and proficient, yes. GOAT, not a chance. [/P-Manning fan]
“Brady has had the luxury of mooching his good stats off a great team and extraordinary coach for years.”
That’s always the case in teamwork, synergy. Brady has found his niche, has been at it for more than a dozen seasons, etc.; too bad about Gronkowski, but Edelman is holding down the fort. And I’m on the wrong coast to be a Patriots fan. Hehe.
What’s so great about Boston is the local economy. It’s still a relative bargain for RE when compared to NY and SF. My wife and I make a combined $260K and that’s enough to actually live a decent life in this city. Can’t say the same for NY and SF. I have a 2500 SF house in a town with good schools (Arlington), 7 miles from the city, 45 minute drive in traffic, 25 minutes without. Hell, I can bike to the T, it’s about 2 miles from my house. Can’t do that in NY or SF. And I managed this while accumulating over $400K in my 401(K) by my mid thirties. This is a small city where opportunity abounds. That said, I can see this place becoming SF before my eyes. Even crappy towns around Boston are becoming expensive.
Kenmore, WA Housing Prices Crater 9% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/kenmore-wa/market-trends/
I am hoping for 50% crash in San Diego overpriced real estate! Doubt it will happen.
Cheer up my friend and remember…. Nothing will correct SD’s moribund economy like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels.
Problem is, if it drops 50% you will be to scared to buy.
Then don’t strike until a 75% decline. That would put prices at the long term trend in CA.
Problem is. investors and the Chinese with deeper pockets will beat ya to it. a 50% drop would mean >10% unemployment again. supply and demand
Knife catchers and dumb.borrowed.money are synonymous. A distinction without a difference.
Remember…..Nothing accelerates the economy and creates jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels.
Chinese investors are likely to take quite a bath when the bubble pops…
yep, but there are so many of them with fake Yuan.
dumb.borrowed.money
Well, then it’s good they’re in California with fake Juan.
Hmm the South Boston part is a surprise to me, its more neighborhood than anything. The real construction boom has been the Seaport District which is adjacent to the “Southie” area. Seaport has been non stop jack hammers and cranes since 2012…now littered with lots of new retail, restaurant, and high end condo/apartment space. Of course, just as has been reported on this site, the market is oversaturated. I checked online on some of these condo buildings and they are offering sweetners like free parking, or 1 month free, or reduced deposits. I haven’t checked in a couple months, but I’m sure the deals are even more ’sweet’ now. Still way too darn expensive for my blood, don’t know how any yuppies afford $3-4k/mo in rent, in a high tax state no less…
Just like asking $50k for a run down 10 year old pickup, you can ask $3k/month for rent but you’re not getting it. That’s why The Glob and The Harold is littered with rental ads. They’re all empty.
Why didnt you take care of your 2007 truck? Dont be so lazy next time.
empty.depreciating.houses.
“Chinese developers were involved…”
Not content with all the ghost cities in the motherland, they bring them here.
I honestly want to go to one of those ghost cities and just bask in the eery feeling of being desolate, yet built up. It has to feel very apocalyptic, like a mass epidemic killed off an entire city and its just you and your dog roaming.
Just go visit Detroit.
Or Flint.
Or NYC, Seattle, Dallas and Miami.
Or Mom’s basement
Or everyones favorite place, your empty skull.
“Oil Slumps As Nigeria Production Jumps”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-09/oil-slumps-nigeria-production-jumps-kuwait-hints-opec-deal-non-compliance-spr-sale
Finally getting about caught up after the holidays. Just wanted to mention that I met with Allena just before Christmas and got to see the area where she lives. Pretty interesting stuff. I’m from Wyoming so the remoteness wasn’t unusual to me, but I was surprised that you could get that remote and still be that close to LA. Only saw the bear attack area from far away…I didn’t realize she was so far from the house when it happened. Somehow I had always imagined it in a gully right behind the house.
Another side note…I think I finally get what Jingle(?) is talking about with the foothills of Sacramento. The only times I’ve been to Sacramento/Folsom I drove up from the coast or flew in. This time I drove down from Lake Tahoe and it was a much different experience. I hadn’t seen anywhere in the area I would enjoy living before, but as you start up the mountain it gets pretty nice.
Sunset Mag gave Nevada city, #1 rating this mo.
Denver = CRATER
re down %
word
delinquencies up
vacancies up
oversupply
rifs
The county is planning for up to 15,109 additional housing units, mostly townhouses and apartments, around the Silver Line through 2040.”
You know what this county really needs? Simple 2,200 square foot 3/2/2 SFHs. No more town homes, no more 6,000 square foot monstrosities, no condos to “live,work,play”, no mixed use luxury apartments.
You will only get that when sanity returns and houses are not seen as magical wealth creating machines.
You might even get some 1200 ft2 3/1s.
The house I had built in the Denver area in 1997 for $136k w/options was a 3/2.5 at only 1360 efficiently used square feet plus basement. It would have been nice to have a couple hundred more in the living room area, but I would be happy with that again even with a healthy inflation adjustment.
But now I’m in San Jose and it’s at least 800k to even think about it and that’s for stuff that’s 20 years old and in rough condition. The only thing similar that’s new is townhomes and right now that’s a million+ for the good 3br/4br stuff.
Rent it for half the monthly cost.
Right now all I’m renting is a room…and it’s still too much. But hoping for a good buying opportunity in a year or two since it’s looking like I may be here a while.
That San Jose traffic sure wastes a lot of one’s time. It is like So cal with out any beaches.
I can walk from my room to work. I don’t want to give that up just to buy, unless there is a compelling reason. I haven’t seriously commuted since 2005 and I’d like to keep it that way.
Santa Cruz hates the San Jose kooks who use their beaches. That drive is a big jam.
I’ve had coworkers (surfers) who made that drive every day. Haven’t met anybody at the new job doing that. Big traditional companies seem to be less attractive to surfers…
What does a room cost you there, Carl?
“I’ve had coworkers (surfers) who made that drive every day.”
That’s a dangerous commute as the 17’s blind curves have the wrong radius and/or banking angles for the given speeds, there’s crossing or merging traffic, and there are few shoulders or turn-outs to safely change a flat.
I’m paying $1500 for a private room and bathroom in a decent 2br apartment. Other than cost my only real complaint is that I’ve been on the waiting list for a garage since August and there’s no movement on the waiting list. The trees here cover your car in sticky crap quickly…mine was a disaster when I got back from a month in China and Malaysia.
Plenty of rentals for that price.
https://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=san+jose&availabilityMode=0
Other similar deals available for that price. I chose this one because it’s within walking distance. Nothing similar where I’m by myself for less than 2k. And honestly I’d rather put up with the hassle of sharing a place to get the advantage of being month to month and able to leave at any time. The local landlords seem to be pretty hardcore about charging people many thousands to break a lease even though they can usually fill it quickly. This way if I go to China next month for a long time I just go…put my stuff in my car, stash the car somewhere and pay nothing but the car expense while I’m gone.
“Simple 2,200 square foot 3/2/2 SFHs.”
At 2,200-sqft that would likely be a 4/3/2 SFH.
FWIW, I’m in a 1,550-sqft 3/2/2 SFH. More than adequate for a family of four, and ours is paid-in-full too.
+1. 2200 sq ft is a lot of room if you don’t mind a 12 x 12 bedroom. In addition to 4/3/2, you can have a formal living room and a dining room and a family/great room.
For reference:
Tiny home with loft bed: 190 sq ft
Park Model tiny home with small but real bedroom: 400 sq ft
Studio apt: 350-400 sq ft
Cute 1/1 apt: 55- sq ft
Levittown 2/1: ~750 sq ft.
Typical Cold War ranch 3/1: 950 sq ft.
for further reference
http://picpaste.com/Blue_Skye_North_Pond_anchorage-Wtd3lt1B.JPG
A mere 500 ft2
Thank you, Blue! Not sure which lake you’re on, but it looks like pretty high water. That little island(?) must be all mud.
For long time, I’ve been interested in the minimum size needed for what I would call a decent American full-time dwelling. By that, I mean a full kitchen with sink/fridge/stove, w/d (combo if necessary), real bath with flush toilet and shower, bed on the main floor, and enough storage for at least 7-10 days worth of food, clothing, and basic housewares and tools. And sure enough, the 400-500 sq ft is a good size, the size of a houseboat, studio apartment, or one-room cabin.
Oxy, it’s not mud, it’s white sand. Lake Ontario. Eastern shore.
It has a full galley for sure, and storage for several months provisions. Shower is on deck now, originally in the head (which has a flush toilet).
If you’re not collecting antique furniture, it is amazing how little space you need to enjoy home base. The boat (cabin cruiser) also sports a silversmith shop.
“formal living room and a dining room” is a waste of space.
sean ,ethan in N VA
keep renting the human tornado my RIFF n Roll lots of feds
Clinkton got rid of 10% and no one cried.
What could go wrong?
And why in the final 10 days?
—
Obama administration cuts premiums on federal mortgage insurance
Washingtonexaminer.com | 1/9/17 | Joseph Lawler
With days left before President-elect Trump’s team takes over, the Obama administration announced Monday that it would cut premiums on mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration, a move meant to aid homebuyers that will serve as a bonus to the housing industry but will antagonize fiscally conservative Republicans.
Julian Castro, the secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, presented the rate cut, the second in as many years, as a timely move to help people facing high costs for home loans.
“After four straight years of growth and with sufficient reserves on hand to meet future claims, it’s time for FHA to pass along some modest savings to working families,” Castro said. “This is a fiscally responsible measure to price our mortgage insurance in a way that protects our insurance fund while preserving the dream of homeownership for credit-qualified borrowers.”
lower gov fees are good for the economy.
wow, the cap in the echo bubble
smellier than smelly MEL WATT
All set to go pop on DJT…
Bagholder in chief.
Better than a Crybaby in chief.
Despicable.
What we should really do is publish a 20yr schedule of federal insurance premiums slowly ratcheting up; this would foster an environment where a non-federal would eventually rise up to replace our current busted system.
Oh, and shouldn’t FHA be required to bank a surety with the Treasury of however much they ended up in the hole the last time around??
How is Subprime Sam supposed to sign up suckers to soak up excess housing supply without subsidized mortgage insurance on subprime loans?
Solution: Barbecue FHA
Whatever happened to the private mortgage insurance industry?
A relic of the free market era.
They’re out there and they’re angry.
I mean real angry, the rage lives just under the skin.
The slightest prodding can bring it to the surface.
The mere mention of Carrier or Magic Wand is more than enough.
What Magic Wand Do You Have? Obama Mocks Trump for Promising to Keep Carrier
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzjty76s4Y4
On the other hand, Trump and his supporters are continually expressing their anger. It’s never concealed.
Angry about what?
Try to keep up.
Angry about DT going to Russia and China for help.
There are so many things. Those people love getting angry and their favorite crackpot new outlets are continually supplying material to stoke their anger.
You need to keep up. Pay attention! Here a are few things that phony was angry about over the weekend.
Inside the Obama’s final star-studded party: Bash goes on until 4am with Meryl Streep, Tom Hanks and SJP on the dance floor and chicken and waffles for breakfast
“Protecting Donald Trump costs New York City more than $1 million a day”
Isn’t it great, cut in half from protecting Obama and Hillary.
California Funds 1st US Inmate Sex Reassignment
Who is the G in the LGBT who hosts Face the Nation?
He is about to wet himself because Reince Priebus won’t bite on his Spies Like Us talking point.
NOAA Fiddles With Climate Data To Erase The 15-Year Global Warming ‘Hiatus’
Of course, it’s mostly nonsense. The Face the Nation host isn’t gay. There’s no reason that the Secret Service budget can be reduced under Trump, and so on and so forth.
Nonsense
“Meryl Streep, Tom Hanks and SJP”
I like Tom Hanks. I like waffles for breakfast.
“Inmate Sex Reassignment”
Cruel and unusual punishment. But seriously, the nation is angry about this?
Phony Scandals is angry about all of it.
“Phony Scandals is angry about all of it.”
If that’s what you need to say to get by Mighty you go right ahead and say it.
But…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1wOK9yGUYM
From my perspective the Trump supporters have seemed pretty calm and happy since the election…as you’d expect. Pleasantly surprised perhaps? The “loyal opposition” on the other hand…
“The Handmaid’s Tale” came out in 1985, during the Reagan years. It was a story of the US becoming a dystopian Christian theocracy and the associated hijinks. The storyline indicates people were sort of hysterical about Reagan and the politics of the time.
In 2017, “The Handmaid’s Tale” is being remade for release in April.
Again, an indication of the state of mind of some of the population.
The novel was written by a Canadian woman.
“The novel was written by a Canadian woman.”
“American Woman” is a song by a Canadian band.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkqfpkTTy2w
In 2017, “The Handmaid’s Tale” is being remade for release in April. Again, an indication of the state of mind of some of the population.
Which is risible, as feminism is much stronger now than it was during Reagan’s years. I guess the poor snowflakes need their safe spaces.
Not really. We have a lot of mirth, especially when we’re watching YouTube videos of caterwauling Hillary supporters and special snowflakes, and feel more optimistic about the future now that the unmitigated horror that would’ve been a new Clinton administration has been permanently averted.
Hillary Clinton concedes stinging defeat to Donald Trump - but not publicly
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvKZ9dZ4lLk
“Some openly weeping”
This is something I post on Facebook to trigger the snowflakes and pearl clutchers: Donald Trump has successfully accomplished the two things I wanted, the political extermination of Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton.
And now back to your regularly scheduled Correct The Record sponsored narrative.
“On the other hand, Trump and his supporters are continually expressing their anger. It’s never concealed.”
To the contrary, they are quite happy and extremely amused by the rage of the left.
Tears of _____?
Warez MT Pockitz?!
heeeeers the Lolas!
http://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/scalefit_630_noupscale/5822b8fa190000a304c31bd4.jpeg
Hello Brother Phony.
My amusement is muted, as I have real world things to think about, elderly parents and other relatives who are ill and need some help from their children and other younger relatives.
And yes, Hillary Clinton fainted in the heat and lost a shoe before she got chucked into a van by the Secret Service at the 9/11 memorial in New York. May she get the medical help she needs, and fade out into the political twilight…
My apologies Apartment 401, I know you’re having a rough day, but I felt it necessary to correct something you wrote.
before she got chucked into a van like a side of beef
The record has been corrected.
You are a pretty high character Dude Mr. goon
Best of luck with the care of your parents and relatives and don’t forget to cherish the time with them.
It’s funny how a phone call that was so hard to find the time to make when someone was alive turns into something you would put anything off for if you could make it after they are gone.
Sorry, that last line I wrote shouldn’t have been bolded/italicized, I messed up the formatting tags. Not complaining but it would be nice to have a ‘preview’ mode before the final Add Comment action.
” if you could make it after…”
Yeah, we all have that. Best to do tomorrow what you can, and be grateful for the opportunity.
Not complaining but it would be nice to have a ‘preview’ mode before the final Add Comment action.
I have a Preview button right next to Add Comment; I think the Joshua Tree extension adds it… Works great.
If the mexicans are such a vital part of our economy and contribute so much, how come Mexico doesnt want them, just their money via remittances?
Who told you that?
Easy Manuel easy.
Correct The Record has been struggling with The Narrative lately
“Easy Manuel easy.”
I told ya
They’re out there and they’re angry.
I mean real angry, the rage lives just under the skin.
The slightest prodding can bring it to the surface.
I was listening to the radio this morning and heard a talk show. I think her name was Stephanie Miller and she called herself a liberal. Man, some of these Democrats are in full kook-koo denial about this Russia thing.
“Man, some of these Democrats are in full kook-koo denial about this Russia thing.”
Some of them may be, but I think many just want to put a false narrative in place, like the accusations about Trump being Hitler and his supporters Nazis. They know darned well it’s not true, but they do it on purpose to taunt and infuriate and to just generally be a-holes. It’s who they are and what they do.
Tucker Carlson interviewing Adam Schiff, Dem Senator from California
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAq9hgTLAZ8
‘many just want to put a false narrative in place’
That is obvious. But it just makes them look silly. Nobody is going to remember all this in 6 months. What I mean about the crazed talk I heard today is, how do they back down now? They are so far out on the loony limb, nothing they do or say will ever be taken seriously. They just go from one unproved assertion to another even nuttier one. “Putin personally directed the hack! Trump is a Russian agent!”
It was a leak, not a hack. There is not one single bit of evidence of this being a Russian hack. And worse of all, did Screech say all those awful things that were leaked? Did the DNC run a “get the Jew” program on Sanders? Were they giving out debate questions against the rules? Did she say those things to Goldman Sachs or not? Wasn’t she warned the server might be illegal and easily compromised?
“And worse of all, did Screech say all those awful things that were leaked? Did the DNC run a “get the Jew” program on Sanders? Were they giving out debate questions against the rules? Did she say those things to Goldman Sachs or not? Wasn’t she warned the server might be illegal and easily compromised?”
They don’t care about any of that. The big question is, is there a massive child trafficking operation going on? That is why they are hysterical about Russia. Wag the Dog.
A fellow by the name of George Webb is digging deep into this, showing the connections between the various players and incidents. He’s something like 78 days into it. The series is called “Where is Eric Braverman?”
https://www.youtube.com/user/georgwebb
I have to start at the beginning, I’ve only seen a couple of vids here and there, but so far, he seems to be doing the sanest work on the subject.
“What I mean about the crazed talk I heard today is, how do they back down now? They are so far out on the loony limb, nothing they do or say will ever be taken seriously.”
They are pretty good at backing down and still expecting to be taken seriously.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwDvF0NtgdU
I just had a thought the other day. They’re going to have Moochele run for prez in either 2020 or 2024.
They are definitely preparing for her and/or Chelsea. I expect both of them to get beaten by a good candidate unless there’s some amazing personality going on that’s been hidden so far.
Both sides need a lot of fresh blood IMO. Hopefully some more outsiders are inspired by Trump’s success even if they want to do exactly the opposite of what he does.
Who told you that?
Where does one start?
How about this? A whole movie dedicated to the concept:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0377744/?ref_=nv_sr_1
A Day Without a Mexican (2004)
When a mysterious fog surrounds the boundaries of California, there is a communication breakdown and all the Mexicans disappear, affecting the economy and the state stops working missing the Mexican workers and dwellers.
And yes, Mexico DOES NOT want them back. The whole point of the Mexodus is that it’s an escape valve for Mexico.
so you want the gov of Mexico to put more controls on people and where they can go? Big gov is bad.
Mexico doesn’t give them the opportunities we do.
Taxing remittances is a horrible idea. Those funds are helping to keep people in Mexico, and few people in America work harder for less money than Mexican migrant workers.
Your are so anti-Trump. He wants Mex to pay us back for the wall.
If Trump ends the DHS “catch and release” program it won’t be a problem.
Good deal if you can get it.
One couple found a way to make Manhattan affordable: not paying rent on their Chelsea loft for six years.
Digital-content producers Zachary Bennett and Karen Nourse quit paying the $4,754.02 monthly rent on their West 26th Street place back in 2010, according to a lawsuit.
They owe $410,000 in rent and electric charges, their landlord claims.
http://nypost.com/2017/01/08/couple-renting-chelsea-pad-hasnt-paid-rent-since-2010/
http://www.kzfilms.com/aboutkzfilms.htm
Bluffdale, UT Housing Prices Crater 10% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/bluffdale-ut/home-values/
cHysTeR
your house is your future! maintain it and you will be set for life. You can make a living off of it.
You’re bankrupt.
Aunt Goon told me last night the reason Cousin Goon in Massachusetts works two jobs is because of unexpected property tax increases. He likes to lecture me and my brother about how Colorado needs to pass more sensible gun laws, LOLZ.
Got TABOR?
Is your formerly-bubbling crude now cratering?
Jan 9, 2017 @ 05:00 PM
Despite OPEC Production Cut, Another Year Of Low Oil Prices Is Likely
Art Berman, Contributor
OPEC Secretary General Nigerian Mohammed Barkindo (R), the Chairman of the OPEC Board of Governors Algerian Mohamed Hamel (L) and the President of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Mohammed bin Saleh al-Sada (C) attend a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, at the OPEC headquarters in Vienna, Austria on November 30.
(HERBERT NEUBAUER/AFP/Getty Images)
An OPEC production cut offers oil producers hope for higher prices in 2017. But there is a dark cloud hanging over that expectation. Global storage inventories must be substantially reduced before higher oil prices can be sustained. Some of U.S. tight oil has nowhere to go but into storage because it can neither be refined nor exported.
If all OPEC cuts take place as announced, it will be at least a year before sufficient inventory reductions allow prices to move much higher than current levels. If not, lower oil prices will last even longer.
…
Peak demand was driven by construction. Is the largest expansion of credit in history over yet?
peak debt?
when you start stomping your little feet over the 90m not working, remember, you are easy to fool and 65m are on Soc Sec.
4.7%
DOW 19999
Dude the economy is booming.Dow 30k next year bro!
the Obama boom ended 08/2016
Are you buying stawks during the Trumphoria?
MarketWatch dot com
Opinion: If you bought the Trump rumor, now it’s time to sell the news
By Mark Hulbert
Published: Jan 10, 2017 5:12 a.m. ET
Skepticism among stock investors before the election has now turned to optimism — perhaps too much
A stampede to the bullish camp is why it’s a safe contrarian bet that the market’s performance over the next two months will be less impressive than it was over the past two months — if it’s up at all.
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — The next two months will show why we should “buy the rumor, sell the news.”
The “rumor” in this case was the speculation about what a Donald Trump presidency would mean for the economy. The “news” will kick in on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20.
Contrarian analysis provides the reason to sell that news: The widespread skepticism of early November has been replaced by pervasive optimism, if not exuberance.
…
I love facts :
Under President Obama, government spending has increased only 3.3% annually, the lowest rate since Eisenhower was president.
You may have heard critics say that President Obama is spending money wildly and running up our debt. According to this article from Forbes, Obama has increased spending by 1.4% annually, far less than President Reagan (8.7%) or George W. Bush (8.1%). According to a more recent article from the Washington Post, Obama has increased spending 3.3% annually. In either case, Obama has increased spending less than any president since Eisenhower.
Obama added nine trillion dollars to the national debt. Future generations will rightfully despise their parents and grandparents for leaving this burden on them.
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/debt-under-obama-9000000000000
seems like the more debt the fed buys the more interest revenue comes in to the treasury to create jobs!
2banana’s Rule:
Long term democrat rule + public unions + free sh*t army = misery, ruin and bankruptcy
And there will be no more bailouts under DJT
—
EXCLUSIVE: Chicago, New York in Worst Financial Shape Among Large US Cities
January 9, 2017 - The Financial Times
Chicago and New York rank at the bottom of a new analysis of fiscal strength based primarily on data from 2015 financial reports issued by the cities themselves. The analysis includes 116 U.S. cities with populations greater than 200,000.
Chicago’s position at the bottom of the ranking is no surprise to anyone who follows municipal finance. The Windy City has become a poster child for financial mismanagement, having suffered a series of ratings downgrades in recent years. Aside from having thin reserves and large volumes of outstanding debt, Chicago is notorious for its underfunded pension plans.
For example, the city’s Municipal Employees’ Annuity and Benefit Fund (MEABF) reported $4.7 billion in assets and $14.7 billion of actuarially accrued liabilities at the end of 2015, representing a funded ratio of just 33 percent. The actuarial calculations rely on a controversial practice of discounting future benefits at a rate of 7.5 percent, which is the assumed return on the fund’s portfolio return. If a more conservative assumption was employed, MEABF’s liabilities would be higher and its funded ratio lower.
While Chicago’s place at the bottom of the list is unsurprising, New York City’s position — just one step above — was unexpected. An extended bull market and soaring real estate prices have pumped money into the Big Apple’s coffers. Total municipal revenues rose from $60 billion in 2009 to $81 billion in 2015. But the city has been spending the money almost as quickly as it has been coming in.
At the end of its 2015 fiscal year, the city’s general fund reserves amounted to just 0.67 percent of expenditures — well below the Government Finance Officers Association recommendation of 16.67 percent (equivalent to two months of spending). A city’s general fund is roughly analogous to an individual’s checking account.
New York City also carries a very heavy debt burden. According to a report issued by City Comptroller Scott Stringer, New York’s per capita debt greatly exceeds that of all other large U.S. cities, and is even 50 percent higher than that of Chicago. But the comptroller’s report only focuses on bonded debt. Government financial accounting standards require cities to report other long-term obligations such as pensions, compensated absences for municipal employees (accrued sick and vacation leave payable at retirement) and “other post-employment benefits” (or OPEB).
It is New York’s OPEB obligation that really sets the Big Apple apart. In 2015, the city’s OPEB liability was $85 billion — roughly equivalent to its bonded debt.
Oh dear. Home-buying sentiment slid for a fifth month in a row.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-purchase-index-slides-for-fifth-straight-month-2017-01-09?link=MW_latest_news
trump has a russian Matryoshka doll:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/4-1-3-RUS-5pcs-NESTING-DOLL-TRUMP-PUTIN-OBAMA-CLINTON-MATRYOSHKA-BABUSHKA-/182402636932?hash=item2a780b5c84:g:91kAAOSwo4pYP~8q
We bought one like that in Budapest at the main market, except it was only the Russian leaders. Paid $7 IIRC. Gave it away as a gift after we got back.
Be afraid, elites. Your captured MSM is losing ground to the alternative media as the public grows increasingly disillusioned with fake news and the lies, distortions, and omissions of The Narrative.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2017/01/09/breitbart-news-45-trafficked-u-s-website-beats-huffpo-wapo-foxnews-2-billion-pageviews-2016/
bzzzzzzzzzzzzt… WRONG!
Meet the screeching dried up old hag.
https://youtu.be/n6wcE82S8Ho
Remember when she was hot?
Neither do I.
washed up
Putrid.
Ha-ha, Facephuc wouldn’t have bought a company that stole technology, would it? Would it?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-09/facebook-s-virtual-reality-foray-challenged-as-fanciful-story
Of course it would. That’s how Facebook came into being, a stolen platform.
What do all fiscally mismanaged cities have in common?
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2017/01/09/EXCLUSIVE-Chicago-New-York-Worst-Financial-Shape-Among-Large-US-Cities
The apex of Illinois corruption.
https://mishtalk.com/2017/01/09/explaining-dysfunctional-illinois-in-one-word-one-idea-one-person/
Here is an article today about the different types of refinances in recent years. The cashouts have been increasing, and there’s still lots of untapped equity out there.
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/01092017_black_knight_mortgage_monitor.asp
‘On the other hand, cash-out refinancing is increasing. There were over 400,000 of them in the third quarter of 2016, growing 14 percent from the second quarter and 35 percent from a year earlier. In all, $26.2 billion in equity was extracted during the quarter, the highest since the second quarter of 2009. In the first three quarters of the year just ended a total of $70.8 billion was cashed out, also the highest total since 2009.’
‘There are now over 39 million borrowers with tappable equity (combined loan-to-value (CLTV) of less than 80 percent) and that equity totals $4.6 trillion nationwide. The average borrower has $118,000 in tappable equity, the highest since 2006. Half of this equity is located in the top 10 metropolitan areas and California alone accounts for nearly 40 percent.’
–
You could have fine wine, go to 5-star restaurants, live the good life!
Compared to the previous bubble years, the cash-outs aren’t at a crazy level yet. Wine+restaurant jokes aside, I wonder what people spend their cash-out money on. Is it just for wine and toys? New car? Or starting a new business?
It will be interesting to see if the cash-outs continue to rise if interest rates continue to rise. The article says it could be either:
‘It is possible that cash-outs will dominate the refinance market this year for the first time since 2008. However, borrowers may also be reluctant to refinance out of their historic low existing rates. When rates went up during the “taper tantrum,” cash outs dropped by 40 percent.’
‘Compared to the previous bubble years, the cash-outs aren’t at a crazy level yet’
It’s from a low base. BTW Quicken is running their cash out refinance ad constantly here now.
There was a bloomberg article today mentioning Quicken and their fight with the DOJ. I didn’t realize Quicken’s HQ is in Detroit.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-09/quicken-loans-founder-accuses-doj-of-shakedown-in-mortgage-fight
It seems like.. They really need to keep these rates low. If the rates rise, prices will go down, so that means less equity to tap. With higher rates, lower prices, and less equity — probably a lot fewer cash-out refi’s too. That means no more spending money on renovating the kitchen or bathrooms, or putting a pool in the backyard, etc. I think that’s what most people do with their cash-out refi’s, they do their home improvement projects, hiring contractors and materials. So that will be less economic activity in general.
Incorrect. Falling prices will result in higher demand and more economic activity.
Maybe so, after housing prices have fallen 50%, but it seems like there would be a lot of pain getting there. I’m not saying interest rates *should* be this low — they’ve pretty much squeezed as much as they could out of it. Yeah, they could go negative and employ all sorts of other tricks, but that seems unlikely.
It’s just a minor adjustment.
This is probably old-hat for most people here, but I’d never actually looked at what these cash-out refi’s were. It’s just more debt, but at least it’s not taxable. Here is a little FAQ on cash-outs.
http://www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com/cash-out-refinance/
‘Is a cash-out refinance taxable?’
‘NO. As mentioned, you aren’t getting free money via the refinance transaction. You are taking out a new loan with a larger balance and you must pay it back (with interest) over time. So there’s no income tax to worry about. However, you’ll likely have larger monthly mortgage payments to contend with.’
‘Is a cash-out refinance tax deductible?’
‘YES. So we know the cash out isn’t treated as income. But even better, it’s tax deductible, though there are limits of $100,000 ($50,000 if married filing separately). So if you pull $150,000 cash out, only the first $100,000 is fully tax deductible.’
what always baffled me is why no one ever paid their student loans off with this free equity bonanza? then went bk or foreclosure
Someone is going to review the cash-out spending prior to discharging any debts.
there was never any mention of that since people bought suv’s big screen tv and very few news reports ever forcing people to give it back or be held accountable for it
Someone is going to review the cash-out spending prior to discharging any debts.
I haven’t heard of BK judges clawing back much of anything—have you? Perhaps in the most blatant of asset giveaways; but paying down a legitimate debt? I doubt that there is cause for doing anything in that case…
WTH, cash out loan proceeds are not tax deductible. The INTEREST paid on the loan is deductible with limits.
Cash out or not, the debt burden is multiple higher today than in 2008.
The only way to truly ‘cash-out’ is to sell it.
Having problems with the tenants in Cape Breton, way up north in Nova Scotia. Poor guy.
http://www.capebretonpost.com/news/local/2017/1/9/landlord-unhappy-with-cape-breton-tenants.html
“She would poop on the floor and use clothes to wipe her rear end and then throw the clothes in the bathtub,” he said.’
Mighty
Feel free to share this with your friends.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSVm12OSlug
Here’s another one for MookyMike. Things are going so well with his buddies down in Venezuela, they just approved another 50% rise in the minimum wage. They deserved the pay rise because of morality and social justice and stuff like that.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-09/venezuela-hikes-minimum-wage-50-due-economic-war-and-mafia-attacks
There’s a nice incoherent rant. I’ll ignore the link. I have a strong suspicion that the fictional Mr. Durden just has an uninformed rant against Venezuela and this recent development.
BERNIE CAN STILL WIN.
There’s still a chance!
flip or flop star files for divorce! lmfao
I see Marissa Mayer is stepping down soon… the PR images have her in an innocent sweater… not the power shots of yore. Looks like she couldn’t pass the wool exam either.
yahoo really downgraded their financial page looks like crapp and is not as easily readable and functional as the old one, and you have no way of going back to it
alta vista, netscape , lycos
I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed when it comes to tech, but in the e-commerce space, there appears to be a lot of degradation in things like search, page design and functions and so forth. Ebay, Amazon, etc. “Improvements” that are announced are often anything but, followed by “tips” to overcome the difficulties put in place. “product reviews” that are either pr or people being nasty for the sake of being nasty. Lots of useless social media.
And just as tech disrupted traditional media such as broadcast and print, new tech splinters older tech on the internet. Vidme splintering youtube, gab splintering twitter, voat splintering reddit. Ads for eyeballs doesn’t work anymore.
I bought some trump nesting dolls today.
I hear there is a new equity program rolling out. As your home goes up in value you can request equity checks with minimal paperwork but an appraisal is required.
Rocket EQuity!