January 17, 2017

Where Things Start To Wobble And Teeter

A report from the Union Tribune in California. “Towering over a part of San Diego known more for offices than apartments, The Rey is one of downtown’s biggest apartment complexes in years. Coming in at 22 stories with 478 apartments, the development will balloon to more than 900 units if it decides to build a second tower already approved by the city. It lives up to its luxury status with a rooftop pool complete with a lounge and kitchen area, two-story gym, expansive views, top of the line appliances, and a lobby that looks more like a fancy hotel than an apartment building. Residents will pay for the amenities with rents about 24 percent more than the average rent in San Diego County.”

“Its opening comes as national trends appear to show a major slowdown in rent growth for luxury units, but most local experts say San Diego will not suffer the same fate because the need for more apartments is so high. Realtor Jason Cassity, who works downtown with sellers and renters, said he has noticed rent growth slowing downtown at other complexes and ones where his firm serves as property manager. ‘We used to property manage a few doors and, almost religiously, assume we could raise the rent 10 percent every year or every turnover. That’s not the case anymore because of the increase of supply,’ he said.”

“Andrew Woo, data scientist for Apartment List, predicts the areas where rent went up the quickest in recent years, like San Diego, will see the biggest slowdown. ‘For new luxury apartments coming online, they may find it more challenging to fill vacant units, which explains why you’re seeing so many specials right now,’ he said.”

The News Gazette in Illinois. “Champaign County home sales topped 3,000 in 2016 for the first time in a decade, increasing 8.23 percent from a year earlier. For homes priced under $400,000, Champaign County Association of Realtors President Jim Waller is seeing more of a sellers’ market, with four months of supply, while there is 81/2 months of supply of homes priced over $400,000, creating a buyers’ market. ‘Homes under $400,000 are performing better than the luxury segment,’ Waller said. ‘That’s not necessarily a concern. More younger people are coming into the market, and they’re not buying homes over $400,000.’”

The Palm Beach Post in Florida. “By one measure, at least, Palm Beach County’s housing market is on fire. From late 2015 to late 2016, the county’s home prices jumped 12 percent, the highest appreciation of any metro area in the country, according to a recent study by Ten-X. Even as home prices bounce back, Palm Beach County incomes have been essentially flat over the past decade. In another example of uneven appreciation, there’s strong demand for entry-level homes but not for more expensive properties.”

“‘We are seeing strong appreciation, but it’s not across the board,’ said Randy Bianchi of Paradise Properties of Florida, a real estate brokerage in West Palm Beach. ‘When you get above that $300,000 to $350,000 level, things are sitting longer.’ And in the higher price ranges, demand seems even softer, said David Dweck, head of the Boca Real Estate Investors Club. ‘When you get to the half a million market, that’s where things start to wobble and teeter,’ Dweck said. ‘Sellers’ expectations are too high right now. If you’re around $500,000, you better be priced right, or you’re going to sit on the market.’”

“Appreciation varies by location, too. Over-55 neighborhoods are languishing, but hot neighborhoods such as West Palm Beach’s South of Southern area have seen big price jumps. ‘In that section of town, we’ve had huge appreciation,’ Bianchi said. ‘The prices are getting a little crazy.’”

From Crain’s New York Business. “Yes, there is a glut of luxury rentals sprouting up on Manhattan’s West Side, in Long Island City and in downtown Brooklyn. High-end condos are poised for distress. Super towers continue to rise in places like Billionaire’s Row, but sales of these ultra-pricey pads have stalled. The upcoming oversupply will allow investors to buy portions of a high-end project’s debt, either at a discount or low enough in the capital stack to take control at a discount.”

“Richard Mack, co-founder of the Mack Real Estate Group, plans to provide luxury developers with cash infusions in return for sizable ownership stakes that will ensure him profits even if the units are sold with steep price cuts. Buying New York real estate still requires huge amounts of capital. One workaround is to partner with owners who bought when prices were a fraction of what they are today.”

“‘I’m seeing a lot of demand among real estate investors to partner with longtime real estate owners,’ said Martin Polevoy, a co-head of DLA Piper’s real estate practice. Such partnerships allow investors to bring the cash to reposition or redevelop a property, then profit on the upside without being saddled with the costs of having bought the property in today’s heated market.”

The Press of Atlantic City in New Jersey. “To Dan Boddy, a veteran real estate agent based in Galloway Township, mortgage foreclosures aren’t just a key part of the Atlantic County housing market. ‘They’re the dominant factor. That’s what’s selling,’ says Boddy, of Century 21 Frick Realtors. ‘I was talking to a local title company a few months back, and they said that was about half their business now.’”

“New Jersey had the highest rate in the country last year, at 1.86 percent of all homes with some foreclosure activity. The state also led the U.S. in the number of ‘legacy’ foreclosures, according to ATTOM, meaning the loans date to between 2004 and 2008. Plus New Jersey had the second-longest average foreclosure process in the country, at an average of 1,383 days, or almost four years from start to finish. ‘The majority of them are still tied to those older loans,’ said Daren Blomquist, ATTOM’s senior vice president. ‘That’s an indication that we’re still dealing with the last crisis and not the more recent economic troubles. They have not even completely shown up in the foreclosures.’”

“Based on his 22 years in real estate, Boddy has to agree with that national perspective. ‘I don’t think that’s even hit the market yet,’ he says, meaning foreclosures caused by casino closings.”




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147 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-01-17 10:51:03

https://sandiego.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=1+month+free&availabilityMode=0

1 to 100 of 643

‘he has noticed rent growth slowing downtown at other complexes and ones where his firm serves as property manager. ‘We used to property manage a few doors and, almost religiously, assume we could raise the rent 10 percent every year or every turnover. That’s not the case anymore because of the increase of supply’

It’s just not true that these new apartments have always offered incentives.

Comment by palmetto
2017-01-17 10:57:56

This is what happens when things are not fixed the first time around. As in after bubble 1.0. You get the double-down phenomenon and people repeat the same stupid stuff, with even more conviction.

Comment by new attitude
2017-01-17 12:19:30

Yep, time to take our medicine. Too much debt out there. Recession coming. Add to it protectionism and more gov spending and layoffs….

Comment by The Enrager
2017-01-17 12:34:16

Lola we’ve been in a recession since 2008.

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Comment by new attitude
2017-01-17 14:07:27

Shirley, You have been in a recession since you were 18.

4.7% and 19,999

 
Comment by The Enrager
2017-01-17 14:15:17

Irrelevant.

 
Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-01-17 14:55:17

“4.7% and 19,999″

This is the Democrats in a nutshell, hanging their hats on bogus employment numbers created out of thin air, and a stock market bubble resulting from their “no banker left behind” economic policies.

Go ask the inner city folks and other Americans how well their votes for “change you can believe in” worked out. This stuff would be comedic gold if it weren’t for the deleterious effects which have caused such great harm to millions of lives. Shameful.

 
Comment by new attitude
2017-01-17 15:02:18

not bogus, come back to reality.

Hiring signs all over the place in CA.

the only people with out a job, dont want one. you get paid what you are worth. stop crying.

the fiscal conservative has spoken

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-01-17 15:38:57

If they’re making up numbers out of thin air, they should just claim 2% unemployment and set a post-war record.

 
Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-01-17 17:08:09

“…Hiring signs all over the place in CA…”

Cherry-pickin’-daddy…

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-01-17 20:09:55

the fiscal conservative has spoken

Ha, more like an extreme liberal masquerading as a caricature of a conservative…

 
Comment by The Enrager
2017-01-17 20:53:05

Really? A thinly veiled charade.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-01-17 22:33:17

Hiring signs all over the place in CA.

Maybe in Palo Alto, Cupertino or San Jose. In Bakersfield or Fresno, not so much.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2017-01-18 07:51:55

Hey, the valley towns are doing well in CA!

“Sacramento, coming in at No. 10 on the list, was pegged as one of the more affordable large metro areas in California. Zillow says home prices are rising quickly, but still 58 percent less expensive than the median home in the Bay Area.

Zillow predicts Sacramento home values will appreciate almost 5 percent this year”

 
 
Comment by rms
2017-01-17 14:15:33

“Yep, time to take our medicine.”

Remove the life-support and roll the gurney to the morgue?

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Comment by Rental Watch
2017-01-17 11:57:25

I recall a conversation years ago (early 2000’s) in Northern CA about the lease-up of new apartments. The conversation revolved around my surprise that renters would hop from new apartment to new apartment, moving every 12 months. The logic in their apartment hopping was that they would get the lease-up concession of a month or two free every 12 months as they went from complex to complex.

I’m not saying that concessions are ALWAYS available for the lease-up of new apartments, but it is not uncommon for there be some kind of concession offered to accelerate the lease-up of a new apartment building. They exist periodically.

Comment by The Enrager
2017-01-17 12:00:55

^ :mrgreen:

Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-01-17 15:28:37

He likes to make stuff up to fit his narrative while avoiding the elephant in the room.

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2017-01-17 14:24:26

Was in north county this weekend, and saw 3 huge apartment complexes being built… 6 floors tall, about 10 acres in size. I don’t know the exact numbers, but that’s a S**tton of apartments. Also saw a lot of sign spinners for existing buildings.

Many McMansions under construction on Del Mar Mesa, many for sale signs in front of the ones they finished last year.

This is gonna get very ugly for landlords.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2017-01-18 06:48:57

We looked at apartments for rent in San Diego this weekend. It seems like there is not much availability. The 200+ unit complexes had maybe 1 or 2 units to lease. We want a 2 bedroom and some places had none available and no move outs eminent.

It is going to take a while to find a suitable place.

Comment by Jingle Male
2017-01-18 06:50:33

BTW, where is Professor Bear? Did he change his blogger name, or is he just missing?

Comment by rms
2017-01-18 09:24:05

He could be on his way to the inaugural?

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Comment by palmetto
2017-01-17 11:00:18

Apropos of China, here’s a piece on Chinese tourists seeking “lung cleansing” trips. Nah, don’t call a plumber to fix the toilet. Just leave it all jammed up and move on in search of another toilet to clog.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/asia/china/articles/chinese-tourists-seek-lung-cleansing-trips-with-growing-air-pollution-smog-in-china/

2017-01-17 14:26:47

They should be flung back to China via catapult if you see them in your country.

Comment by palmetto
2017-01-17 15:02:56

A simple rutabega rocket ride to the Spratlys will suffice.

Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2017-01-17 15:39:11

That had me laughing hard… good one!

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Comment by palmetto
2017-01-17 16:16:00

One good turn deserves another. Thanks for the rutabegas!

 
 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-01-17 15:48:58

Chinese tourists shouldn’t’ be so bad. If they come over, spend money, and then go home after a couple of weeks, that provides work for Americans.

Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2017-01-17 16:17:21

Chinese tourists are yokels from hell.

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Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-01-17 17:04:49

Wave of low-tipping travelers worries dealers, servers in Las Vegas

As Strip properties prepare for more Chinese visitors, some casino employees say they are concerned they will have to forgo some tip money.

“It’s very difficult when you’re serving or relying on tips and the majority of your guests are foreign,” said Cheryl Holt, who has worked as a food server on the Strip since 2011. “They don’t tip you, or they may have a $200 meal and tip you a dollar per person.

She said every international visitor has a reputation when it comes to tipping. Canadians usually tip about 10 percent, she said, while Europeans are commonly low tippers, and in her experience Chinese visitors usually tip a dollar per head at the table.”

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-01-17 17:28:43

It’s true. But I like their system better. I think we should pay more and get rid of tipping.

 
Comment by drumminj
2017-01-17 18:26:31

I think we should pay more and get rid of tipping.

I’m not a fan of tipping either, but don’t think that automatically means we should pay more. Honestly, I think people (at least here in Seattle area) pay/tip more than they get in service.

I agree that employers should simply pay the hourly wage that gets them the quality of staff they would like. Do away with tips. Let me not have to worry about ‘bribing’ someone to get good service, rather than being able to expect it by default.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-01-17 22:36:55

And then there’s the ever growing expectation of larger and larger tips. Remember when 12% was considered reasonable? Now they want 20%. What’s next? 30%?

 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-01-17 16:40:04

The money has to come back somehow eventually. If they won’t buy our products then that’s the next best way.

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Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2017-01-17 17:56:10

They’re more interest in buying chunks of our country. This is what’s the worst about running a trade deficit.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-01-17 11:31:33

‘I’m seeing a lot of demand among real estate investors to partner with longtime real estate owners,’ said Martin Polevoy, a co-head of DLA Piper’s real estate practice. Such partnerships allow investors to bring the cash to reposition or redevelop a property, then profit on the upside without being saddled with the costs of having bought the property in today’s heated market.’

Undercutting today’s knife-catchers.

Comment by oxide
2017-01-17 11:48:42

So, some developer puts in a half mil worth of pergraniteel kitchens and a pool, then collects a couple mil in jacked-up rents? Value-added carpetbagging at its finest. I hope the long-time owners give these hucksters the Joshua Treetment.

Comment by The Enrager
2017-01-17 12:09:34

Can’t collect rents when they’re all empty.

Comment by oxide
2017-01-17 13:45:59

These pre-owned apartments aren’t empty now. They are probably Grade B affordable units. I guess your point is that the units will be empty *after* the renovation and they drive out residents when they drive up the rent.

I’m not so sure that these units will languish. It depends a lot on where the units are and what they are renovated into. Sure, if there is a shiny new tower nearby for the same rent, the Millenials will choose the tower. But if these developers are smart, they will renovate the Grade B to Grade A-minus (for lack of a better description), to undercut the overpriced Grade A.

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Comment by The Enrager
2017-01-17 13:57:23

It depends on the price. Nothing else.

 
Comment by joe smith
2017-01-17 15:23:31

When you factor in labor and vacancy it’s not that much more expensive to go Grade A (pergo/granite/stainless). Either way, it takes x man hours an the apartment needs to be empty for the same amt of time.

Additionally, being able to market and select from higher quality potential tenants has an economic value as well.

Not every tenant wants what you want, oxide. Some (wrongly, perhaps) are willing to pay for a modern look. Personally, I don’t agree with this, but it’s about the market–not your or my opinion.

 
Comment by oxide
2017-01-17 17:02:09

You’re missing it, Joe.

You’re right, it’s a little more cost effective and more profitable to go full Grade A, and command full Grade A prices. Problem is, EVERYONE had this same idea. There is now an overload of Grade A apartments, and not enough tenants with Grade A income to pay the Grade A rent. Grade A apartments have been trying to out-do each other with amenities, but have been very reluctant to drop prices until they are forced. Ben has been posting article after article about this for WEEKS.

That’s why I recommended Grade A-. You charge only a little less rent, but you undercut ALL of the Grade A and fill your building. That’s better than having a “modern” half empty building.

 
Comment by drumminj
2017-01-17 18:28:12

That’s why I recommended Grade A-. You charge only a little less rent, but you undercut ALL of the Grade A and fill your building

Until the GradeA folks drop their rent because their vacancy rate is too high, now forcing the A- folks to drop theirs. In the end, if there’s a glut at the top end it’s going to drive down prices of everything.

 
Comment by The Enrager
2017-01-17 18:38:41

Now you’re gettin it!

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-01-17 12:20:54

‘There’s a great disparity in apartment rent growth between major metros and secondary markets, and the caliber of recent supply is to blame. U.S. rent growth has slowed for four consecutive months, with markets like San Francisco, New York and San Jose cooling the most.’

“This has been typical for years. No one builds Class-B/C’s, they all build Class-A’s,” said Yardi Matrix department of operations manager Doug Ressler.’

‘One way developers are attempting to resolve this imbalance — though it’s a mere Band-Aid on a large open wound — is by purchasing older apartments and giving them a facelift. Typically this requires less money and the profits far outweigh the initial capital injection as developers add amenities that allow them to increase rents.’

“Value-add says, I’ll take an apartment that has good bones, meaning good architecture, and is maybe 20 years old, and I’ll invest a small amount — maybe five figures — into that apartment so I can continue to grow the rents,” Ressler said.’

Comment by The Enrager
2017-01-17 12:31:50

“I’ll take an apartment that has good bones, meaning good architecture, and is maybe 20 years old,”

A screaming siren of someone who just doesn’t know what they’re talking about.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2017-01-17 13:18:46

In a bubble, everyone on board thinks they are a genius.

In reading the previous thread, I was looking at some of the houses for sale in Kirkland. Wow, there are some ugly overpriced houses there. Median price 6 x income and 200 x rent. Serious bubble territory and it is supposed to be one of the cheaper burbs. It’s going to take a 70% reduction in places like this just to be sustainable. Rents will follow and these speculators won’t need the rooftop pool, just the diving board.

 
Comment by Avg Joe
2017-01-17 14:19:39

Kirkland is definitely not one of the “cheaper burbs”. That’s more like Renton.

 
Comment by redmondjp
2017-01-17 16:19:06

Yes, Kirkland is for people that can’t afford to live in Bellevue, meaning that it’s still crazy expensive. I’ve been told that somebody named Yuan is looking for a new home!

 
Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-01-17 16:40:49

Our family’s house and neighborhood in Kirkland was much nicer than our relative’s in Bellevue. There are dumpy areas in Bellevue, with trailers to boot.

It’d be hard to find a place with more overpriced houses than the greater Seattle area. Tiny rotboxes going for $500k+.

 
Comment by drumminj
2017-01-17 18:31:00

Our family’s house and neighborhood in Kirkland was much nicer than our relative’s in Bellevue. There are dumpy areas in Bellevue, with trailers to boot.

There are dumpy areas in Kirkland as well — the further north you get/towards Bothell.

 
Comment by Karen
2017-01-17 22:04:52

“I’ll take an apartment that has good bones, meaning good architecture, and is maybe 20 years old,”

“A screaming siren of someone who just doesn’t know what they’re talking about.”

I live in an aprtment complex that’s only 8 years old and it doesn’t have ‘good bones’. I should post some pictures of all the cracked foundations, cracks running throughout the parking lots and sidewalks, as well as cracks in my floors, walls, and ceiling inside my apartment.

Of but we have granite countertops, 9′ ceilings, and crown molding. That makes up for all the structural problems.

 
 
Comment by whirlyite
2017-01-17 13:26:03

That is what is going on where I live.

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Comment by oxide
2017-01-17 14:42:15

‘One way developers are attempting to resolve this imbalance — though it’s a mere Band-Aid on a large open wound — is by purchasing older apartments and giving them a facelift.

In other words, they want to “resolve the imbalance” by making ALL apartments Grade A and forcing renters to pay for Grade A because it’s all that’s available. That’s like the car companies colluding to take all the average sedans off the road, and then only offering luxury sedans and SUVs at the dealership… and then wondering why 90% of the people are taking the bus. :roll:

I don’t hear them making noises about taking the luxury out of the Grade A units to make them Grade B.

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Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-01-17 16:42:26

It’ll end up working out very well for renters in the long run. They’ll be renting Grade A at Grade B prices.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-01-17 17:03:56

It’s going to be messy. These aren’t just A, they’re super A with bocci ball. Razor thin profits, even at these expensive rents. The only way to step down the rents is default and a new owner. (Who will likely ditch the amenities as much as possible). The size of the lending to these companies could create a sizeable credit event. Lot’s of government loan backing, pension fund problems, etc. It will take years for the lawsuits to play out.

Then there’s this: say one tower goes under, is bought in foreclosure, lowers rents. More strain on the rest of the market, more defaults, and so on. As we learned in Calgary this week, companies are still building condos knowing they’ll have to carry them at a loss in the hope to cash in big later. That’s Yellen bucks looking for a place to die, IMO.

 
Comment by oxide
2017-01-17 17:08:21

I hope that’s the way it goes.

What I fear is that local governments will take over and “give” this Grade A stuff to the Section 8s. You’ll have the lazy folks bragging about their granite while the entry level engineers and young professions are stuck in Grade B because they don’t make enough for Grade A but they make too much to get gov bennies. (of course, this is “racist”)

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-01-17 17:30:35

Sounds too big to fail. Guess we better prop them all up even if it means the Fed renting a bunch of them at full price until things are “back to normal”.

 
Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-01-17 17:49:07

Comment by oxide
2017-01-17 17:08:21
What I fear is that local governments will take over and “give” this Grade A stuff to the Section 8s.

Already happened here years ago. Don’t know if it’s still happening.
Housing Bust Opens New Doors for Subsidized Tenants

Updated Aug. 2, 2010 12:01 a.m. ET
HENDERSON, Nev.—When Shawnetta Newburn left her drug-infested St. Louis neighborhood in search of a better life for her family in Las Vegas, she didn’t expect to live in a house with frills worthy of a McMansion.

But Paradise awaited.

That’s the name of the gated community where Ms. Newburn, a single mother who makes $10.50 an hour as a pawn-shop cashier, rents a three-bedroom townhouse with soaring ceilings, a gas-fueled fireplace and an oversize walk-in closet in the largest bedroom. The master bath even includes an enclosed toilet room, a feature popular in mini-mansions…

Ms. Newburn can thank the housing bust. She participates in a government program for low-income families that subsidizes about half of her $1,400 monthly rent. The program, known as Section 8, has for decades put families in functional but basic homes and apartments, sometimes in less-than-desirable communities.

But overbuilding during the housing boom has left so many homes available that landlords, desperate for renters, are wooing Section 8 recipients, whose government subsidies, delivered electronically, guarantee the landlord gets paid. As a result, Section 8 recipients suddenly have a housing smorgasbord.

Plenty of average housing stock remains in many places, but in certain markets, there are also more upscale selections…

Some renters are getting pickier. “More and more, I’m seeing tenants turn down places,” says Arman Davtyan, owner of seven Las Vegas properties rented to Section 8 tenants. Instead, they’re going for “another property that’s either bigger or in a better area or has more bedrooms,” he says. “Before, they tended to take whatever they could get.”

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-01-17 18:51:27

An engineer should be able to afford rent at $1,400.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-01-17 20:44:36

Razor thin profits, even at these expensive rents.

Razor thin profits, then razor thin losses, and eventually wide, gaping losses.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-01-17 20:47:14

Guess we better prop them all up even if it means the Fed renting a bunch of them at full price until things are “back to normal”.

Directly renting is for the little people; what would be more the Fed’s style would be to have Wall Street securitize them (Rental Backed Securities), then buy up the securities and bury them in an off-balance-sheet Super-SIV (think Maiden Lane *).

 
Comment by rms
2017-01-17 22:53:41

“The only way to step down the rents is default and a new owner.”

+1 I’ve seen this before in downtown San Jose, CA back in the eighties. These places stand empty for years while it gets sorted-out. The lawyers and a few security guards appear to be the only winners.

 
Comment by oxide
2017-01-18 04:40:49

An engineer should be able to afford rent at $1,400

While the government subsidizes the pawn shop cashiers in the $1900 luxury apartments, right? That’s what the SJW’s want. It’s one thing to provide basics for the poor; it’s quite another to leapfrog those poor over the people who actually earn the money. And when people point out this inequality, they get called racists.

Yeah, I’m getting conservative, and high time too.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-01-18 11:24:57

An engineer should be able to afford rent at $1,400.

True. But market price for a 2br is double+ that.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2017-01-17 11:47:25

To summarize:

NOTHING has been fixed.

NOTHING has changed.

But don’t peddle the fiction.

“New Jersey had the highest rate in the country last year, at 1.86 percent of all homes with some foreclosure activity. The state also led the U.S. in the number of ‘legacy’ foreclosures, according to ATTOM, meaning the loans date to between 2004 and 2008. Plus New Jersey had the second-longest average foreclosure process in the country, at an average of 1,383 days, or almost four years from start to finish. ‘The majority of them are still tied to those older loans,’ said Daren Blomquist, ATTOM’s senior vice president.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-01-17 14:35:07

http://www.bkfs.com/Data/DataReports/BKFS_MM_Nov2016_Report.pdf

See page 22.

Generally speaking, judicial states have been slower to clear foreclosures, including NJ/NY.

Non-judicial states have been much faster.

Comment by The Enrager
2017-01-17 15:12:07

With foreclosure moratoriums in effect in all 50 states, “the data” doesn’t much matter.

 
Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-01-17 16:53:36

The FASB suspension of mark-to-market accounting rules, which continues today, affected ALL states and distorted prices.

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2017-01-17 11:52:13

They still don’t get why they lost.

More than 50 Democratic lawmakers now skipping Trump’s inauguration
Washington Post | January 17, 2017 | Elise Viebeck

A growing group of Democratic lawmakers will boycott President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration Friday to protest what they described as his alarming and divisive policies, foreign interference in his election and his criticism of civil rights icon John Lewis, a congressman from Georgia.

There are now more than 50 House Democrats — 52, at last count — who have declared that they will not attend the inauguration on Capitol Hill this week. The number rose sharply after Trump tweeted Saturday that Lewis (D) is “all talk, talk, talk” and should “finally focus on the burning and crime infested inner-cities.”

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-01-17 13:28:18

What does that mean, “devisive”?

Comment by oxide
2017-01-17 14:48:52

Ugh, tonight PBS is showing a two-part program: The Divided States of America. I’ll try to watch it to see if presents a balanced view, or it if veers off into SJW-land.

 
 
 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-01-17 12:15:46

how is buying a house in a BK sate like IL different from buying in a BK country like Nicaragua ?

por-qued

Comment by new attitude
2017-01-17 12:24:42

really, you can’t tell the difference? uhg.

3 more days until the China games start. Tariffs on everything but ties.

 
Comment by 2banana
2017-01-17 13:45:18

99% less property taxes and no public union goon with a gun ready to take your house to pay his public union goon pension?

 
 
Comment by The Enrager
2017-01-17 12:19:59

wow, the cap in the echo bubble
smellier than smelly MEL WATT

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-01-17 12:23:02

Take your Xanax, swamp creatures. Panem on the Potomac is about to get downsized.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/17/us/angst-simmers-in-washington-as-trump-presidency-nears.html?_r=0

Comment by palmetto
2017-01-17 12:48:49

Just relocate the danged place. At this point it smells like patootie. Break it up and put pieces of it in different parts of the country.

 
Comment by rms
2017-01-17 14:09:42

Where’s the White House menorah? :)

 
2017-01-17 14:29:52

Make room for the new crop of Goldman Sachs cronies…

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-01-17 12:25:57

Liberals prepping? That’s an abomination, like cats and dogs living together.

http://www.vocativ.com/390175/liberal-preppers-stock-up-on-guns-food/

Comment by new attitude
2017-01-17 14:09:24

Lots of people have vans, plans and WAM. Some with ice makers and safes.

Comment by oxide
2017-01-17 17:48:16

WAM?

Comment by drumminj
2017-01-17 18:33:48

WAM?

wild-ass monkeys, I think? Great for defending your prepper stash!

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Comment by oxide
2017-01-18 05:21:28

I had to urban-dictionary it. The closest appears to be “walking-around money.” I hope that WAM is in physical dollars/precious and not bitcoin, or :roll: ApplePay. (leave it to a Millenial prepper to depend on a smartphone when the SHTF.)

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-01-17 12:27:31

‘Hedge funds, large investment firms and private equity companies helped the U.S. housing market recover after the crash in 2008 by turning empty foreclosures from Atlanta to Las Vegas into occupied rentals.’

‘Now among America’s biggest landlords, some of these companies are leaving tenants like Allen in the cold. In a business long dominated by mom-and-pop landlords, large-scale investors are shifting collections conversations from front stoops to call centers and courtrooms as they try to maximize profits.’

‘American Homes 4 Rent, one of the nation’s largest operators, and HavenBrook filed eviction notices at a quarter of its houses, compared with an average 15% for all single-family home landlords, according to Ben Miller, a Georgia State University professor and co-author of the report. Colony Starwood Homes initiated proceedings on a third of its properties, the most of any large real estate firm.’

‘According to a report last year from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, a record 21.3 million renters spent more than a third of their income on housing costs in 2014, while 11.4 million spent more than half. With credit tightening, the homeownership rate has fallen close to a 51-year low.’

‘In January 2012, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke encouraged investors to use their cash to stabilize the housing market and rehabilitate the vacant single-family houses that damage neighborhoods and property values. Now, the Atlanta Fed’s own research suggests that the eviction practices of big landlords may also be destabilizing.’

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-01-17 14:47:29

https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/community-development/publications/discussion-papers/2016/04-corporate-landlords-institutional-investors-and-displacement-2016-12-21.pdf

Here is the link to the paper itself.

The thing that the authors of the article do not say is that the percentages are based on the report that looked only at Fulton County, GA, which in it’s own right has a high number of evictions relative even to other high-eviction markets.

It certainly seems true that the big players are generally less forgiving (quicker to evict) than “mom and pop” owners.

 
Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-01-17 16:46:00

Heckuva job, Janet Felon, Bernanke, Geithner et al.

Comment by oxide
2017-01-17 17:25:26

Those investors funding these houses want their ROI. IIRC, weren’t some of these companies basing their ROI on a consistent 5% rent increase per year?

 
 
Comment by leydan
2017-01-17 20:38:01

Aaron Kuney, HavenBrook’s former executive director of acquisitions, said the companies would rather keep their existing tenants as long as possible to avoid turnover costs.

But “they want to get them out quickly if they can’t pay,” said Kuney, now chief executive officer of Piedmont Asset Management, a private equity landlord in Atlanta. “Finding people these days to rent your homes is not a problem.

25% of your tenants already can’t afford the rent, which seems pretty high. Presumably some percentage of tenants who can make rent are a major life event away from being unable (lost job, reduced hours, illness, etc…). Given that, I’d say his statement is already false. If you’re more generous than I, it’s certainly not hard to come up with plausible scenarios which would cause it to be so.

Wonder what the rating and predicted vacancy rate is on the CMBS which holds these properties.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-01-17 12:36:12

Livermore, CA Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY

http://www.movoto.com/livermore-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-01-17 13:06:14

Celine Dion’s mansion price cuts will go on….

http://www.businessinsider.com/celine-dions-florida-mansion-2017-1

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-01-17 13:25:27

‘Another year, another price chop for Celine Dion’s extravagant Jupiter Island property. The price for the lavish house now stands at $38.5 million after a series of price chops over the last four years, according to The Wall Street Journal. It was originally asking $72.5 million in 2013.’

‘The singer had previously lowered the price to $45.5 million after her husband, René Angélil, died last year. Dion and her late husband bought the lot for $12.5 million in 2005 and the adjacent mansion for $7 million in 2008. They then razed the existing home to build the current spread.’

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-01-17 13:37:22

I like the driftwood chandelier in the dining room.

Living 10 ft above sea level, not so much.

2017-01-17 14:31:05

The chandelier doubles as a flotation device.

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Comment by rms
2017-01-17 14:22:45

Wonder if the assessed value falls that much too?

Comment by phony scandals
2017-01-17 17:39:48

“Wonder if the assessed value falls that much too?”

With Ben’s numbers and this it looks like she is now asking what she paid. (besides taxes insurance maintenance etc.)

Celine Dion’s New $20 Million Home in Florida Has an Aquatic Wonderland

By Lavinia June 29, 2010 in Architecture

Celine Dion and her husband Rene Angelil recently had a mansion constructed for their family in Florida. This new project costed the couple $20million (£13.9million) and a lot of neighborhood racket.

Read more: http://freshome.com/2010/06/29/celine-dions-new-20-million-home-in-florida-has-an-aquatic-wonderland/#ixzz4W4Kb4mNO
Follow us: @freshome on Twitter | freshome on Facebook

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Comment by Blue Skye
2017-01-17 18:23:29

“costed” ?

 
Comment by phony scandals
2017-01-17 19:36:43

I am assuming $20 million to build plus one lot for “$12.5 million in 2005 and the adjacent mansion for $7 million They then razed the existing home to build the current spread.’n 2008.”

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-01-17 13:09:03

Obama Justice Department reaches settlement with Deutsche Bank for $7.2 billion - despite systemic lawbreaking and fraud, there was never the remotest prospect of any DB senior officials facing criminal charges.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/justice-dept-finalizes-72-billion-settlement-with-deutsche-bank-2017-01-17

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-01-18 08:30:42

The government-for-sale window was closing for at least the current crop of appointees, so it makes good sense for their future revolving-door status to sell outsettle while they still can.

Despicable.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-01-17 13:18:43

“Progressives” can’t help but let the mask slip as they spew venom against the Middle Americans who gave the bicoastal elites Da Meddle Fanger by voting for Trump.

http://heatst.com/culture-wars/liberal-ceo-slams-middle-america-no-educated-person-wants-to-live-in-a-shthole-with-stupid-people/?link=TD_heatst_articles.47942

 
Comment by Palm Beach County
2017-01-17 13:33:54

Mark Hanson ‏@MrMarkHanson 30m30 minutes ago
HOUSING BUBBLE 2.0 WOW! FED SAYS “GET TO HOME ATM MACHINE & BUY STUFF!” HELOC-MANIA 2.0. HOW QUICKLY THEY FORGET!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-york-fed-chief-dudley-has-an-idea-homeowners-should-tap-into-equity-2017-01-17

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-01-17 13:49:36

Buh-Bye, Clinton Global Initiative. When influence-peddling is your “charitable foundation’s” business model, it becomes non-viable once you no longer have the access and position required for pay-to-play rackets.

http://www.breitbart.com/radio/2017/01/17/peter-schweizer-clinton-global-initiative-folded-can-no-longer-sell-access-political-power/

 
Comment by new attitude
2017-01-17 14:10:25

I read that after jan 1 it is legal to punch a neo-con.

Comment by The Enrager
2017-01-17 16:18:01

Then take appropriate countermeasures Lola.

 
Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-01-17 16:56:34

You should go punch Hillary, then.

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2017-01-17 14:18:17

CNN’s Marc Lamont Hill Denounces Fellow Panelist as ‘Mediocre Negro’ For Defending Trump

by Alex Griswold | 9:28 am, January 17th, 2017

CNN analyst Marc Lamont Hill attacked a fellow panelist Monday for his work on Donald Trump‘s National Diversity Coalition, calling him a “mediocre Negro” being manipulated by Trump.

video

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/cnns-marc-lamont-hill-denounces-fellow-panelist-as-mediocre-negro-for-defending-trump/

Comment by joe smith
2017-01-17 15:13:06

what does this even mean?

is marc lamont hill some type of “expert negro”?

 
 
Comment by new attitude
2017-01-17 14:26:41

So who will lose their insurance when ACA is killed off? (or is everyone on medicare?)

Comment by joe smith
2017-01-17 15:27:19

private sector Kaiser Permanente here.

 
Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-01-17 16:58:05

I go naked, pretending it’s the 1700’s and there’s no such thing as health insurance, or good care period.

 
Comment by BearCat
2017-01-17 17:11:00

How many people lost their insurance when Obamacare was passed?

 
 
 
Comment by junior_kai
2017-01-17 14:52:26

I’m wondering why the libs, with all the billionaires, tech gurus, hollywood celebs and athletes dont just buy a chunk of meheeco (carlos slim can get any paperwork waived) or africa (bill gates is the defacto ruler hence the funding for testing of experimental vaccines there) and relocate to establish their grand utopia? They can spread the wealth with their minions - we hear alot about that from them - and embrace some serious diversity, another point they constantly harp over. Where you at libbies? Whats holding you snowflakes back, bad hair day? Why arent your esteemed leaders practicing what they preach and setting up their promised land? You gonna tell me that bloomberg, buffett, zuckerberg, soros, gates, slim and the rest of the chuds dont have the scratch for a down payment on utopia?

Comment by new attitude
2017-01-17 14:57:04

they (billionaires) have jobs already, unlike the moochers.

stop reading fake news. libs want clean air, not give away the $$$ to lazy moochers. that is the churches job.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-01-17 15:34:31

Why arent your esteemed leaders practicing what they preach and setting up their promised land? You gonna tell me that bloomberg, buffett, zuckerberg, soros, gates, slim and the rest of the chuds dont have the scratch for a down payment on utopia?

Those people preached something about setting up a promised land? Do you have a link for that?

 
 
Comment by azdude
2017-01-17 15:03:47

bogus-stock-prices

Autozone Inc (AZO :NYSE)
Real Time Quote | Source: NASDAQ Last Sale Trades, Consolidated Volume
+ WATCHLIST
782.29 USD
Last | 4:00:23 PM EST

UNCH (0)
After Hours Change
5,916
Volume
Extended Hours
782.29 USD
Close | 4:00:00 PM EST

2.48 (+0.32%)
Change
272,790
Volume

is this a joke?

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-01-17 15:45:07

Autozone’s price?

They’ve been using more than a $ billion per year to buy back stock, reducing the number of shares outstanding considerably.

Most of that money has come from free cash flow. They have increased the debt on their balance sheet, but generally in proportion to the increase in assets.

In 2009, they had about 50MM shares outstanding. Now they have less than 30MM outstanding (so each share is worth more).

Comment by The Enrager
2017-01-17 16:20:59

In other words theyre borrowing money to buy back.

Thanks.

 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-01-17 16:49:15

Maybe “everybody” thinks they are the place to be during a crash? Due the whole “I’m unemployed but gotta keep my car running” theme?

 
 
Comment by joe smith
2017-01-17 15:11:17

Stacking money here waiting for further interest rate increases coupled with foreclosure activity.

I thought my current house would be the “forever house” because I didn’t really think we’d end up in the same situation just a few years later. I can see prices here dropping 25% or so, just like 2008. Looking for something with 10+ acres this time, in Harford County MD (low taxes, small gov, and relatively few land restrictions for a coastal area).

Comment by The Enrager
2017-01-17 15:14:08

Liberace!

Comment by joe smith
2017-01-17 15:30:40

awaiting your churchville, md down xx% YOY links.

http://www.movoto.com/md/21028/market-trends/

i hope it drops like a stone.

 
 
Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-01-17 17:01:57

The taxes on acreage are getting worse and worse…

Comment by Joe
2017-01-17 18:03:01

In Maryland your prop taxes are based on sale price, then you apply for homestead treatment. After that, your prop taxes can’t rise by much more than inflation (it depends on county). Harford is a red county, Trump country, and has the only GOP congressman in MD.

 
 
Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2017-01-17 17:58:49

If you can hit both troughs… you hit the jackpot!

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-01-17 15:22:42

Takoma Park, MD Housing Prices Crater 15% YoY

http://www.movoto.com/takoma-park-md/market-trends/

Comment by joe smith
2017-01-17 15:52:28

uber-leftist DC suburb. wouldn’t live there if you paid my property taxes for me.

pretty close to where oxide lives, i think.

Comment by The Enrager
2017-01-17 16:22:41

Are you two donks gonna join me at the inauguration? It’s gonna be great.

Comment by Joe
2017-01-17 21:24:43

I will be watching. Glad he won.

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Comment by new attitude
2017-01-17 15:40:54

today’s Amurica:

Selling my BMW, sad to see it go. I don’t have the time and money to repair it.

Interior 9/10 excellent condition, no rips no tears

Exterior 9/10 no dents no scratches

Tags are paid
Vehicle non opt

Needs new engine, should run great after replacement.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-01-17 22:40:01

That’s what you get when you buy a German car. Sure, it’s awesome when it’s new (and still under warranty).

I’ll bet you can buy a nice, brand new hatchback for what a BMW engine costs.

Comment by redmondjp
2017-01-18 10:09:22

You don’t buy a new engine. You get a low-mileage one out of a wrecked car for $3-4K. There also are places that import used engines from Europe.

I know people who have bought very nice BMWs for peanuts and put a used engine in - great value if you can do the labor.

 
 
 
Comment by joe smith
2017-01-17 15:54:04

obama just commuted manning’s sentence. you can’t make this type of stuff up.

Comment by new attitude
2017-01-17 15:57:14

Obama - time to quit on the 18th, let em sware in Biden as 45th POTUS, ef up all Trumps merchandise. Play the game.

 
Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2017-01-17 17:57:26

Snowden is a hero, Assange is a hero, but Bradley isn’t?

 
Comment by taxpayers
2017-01-17 18:15:47

It’s staying jail till taxpayers path for the sex change
$100,000

Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2017-01-17 21:37:40

A sex change by prison doctors is punishment in its own..

 
Comment by rms
2017-01-17 23:08:24

They’re really pimping this transgender schitt while the real issues are glossed-over with another round of loans.

 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2017-01-17 16:44:25

New ABC / WaPo Poll Shows Drop In Trump Favorability Courtesy Of Aggressive “Oversamples”

by Tyler Durden
Jan 17, 2017 3:42 PM

In the month leaded up to the election on November 8th, we repeatedly demonstrated how the mainstream media polls from the likes of ABC/Washington Post, CNN and Reuters repeatedly manipulated their poll samples to engineer their desired results, namely a large Hillary Clinton lead (see “New Podesta Email Exposes Playbook For Rigging Polls Through ‘Oversamples’” and “ABC/Wapo Effectively Admit To Poll Tampering As Hillary’s “Lead” Shrinks To 2-Points”). In fact, just 16 days prior to the election an ABC/Wapo poll showed a 12-point lead for Hillary, a result that obviously turned out to be embarrassingly wrong for the pollsters.

But, proving they still got it, ABC/Washington Post and CNN are out with a pair of polls on Trump’s favorability this morning that sport some of the most egregious “oversamples” we’ve seen. The ABC/Wapo poll showed an 8-point sampling margin for Democrats with only 23% of the results taken from Republicans…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-17/new-abc-wapo-poll-shows-drop-trump-favorabilty-through-aggressive-oversamples

 
Comment by azdude
2017-01-17 17:25:12

how long can this sh@t show stock market last?

You guys know its all borrowed money keeping it afloat.

Seems like the biggest scam going.

When I meet people they have a deer in the headlight look when I same its a bubble and grossly overvalued.I feel like I’m beating the same drum about the housing bubble in 2004. People thought I was nuts. I certainly wasnt the popular guy.

Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2017-01-17 18:00:46

You just gotta adapt… wait for it to pop, get in, ride up the government subsidized ‘recovery’, get out, repeat in 7-10 years.

It ain’t right, but that’s reality.

 
Comment by Big Fat Ugly Bubble
2017-01-17 19:15:10

My dumb take on it. Because of the coming Trump corporate tax cuts, which people are hoping will increase business profits, people are buying the stocks. Then, on top, people are selling bonds, and don’t they usually buy stocks when they sell bonds? So you’ve got two motivators for buying. Who knows how long it can go on. I thought it was pretty high even before the Trump rally.

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2017-01-17 17:35:36

Biggie — Machine Gun Funk (1994):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOQVSXy1XI0

 
Comment by The Enrager
2017-01-17 18:43:14

Snoqualmie, WA Housing Prices Plunge 30% YoY As Housing Bubble Deflates

http://www.movoto.com/snoqualmie-wa/market-trends/

 
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