The Housing Bubble

Ha, ha, yes, it is a well respected leading economic indicator!

My mother used it for years when discussing my allowance increase.

I see you took the red pill.

Thanks for pointing that out, I didn’t catch it at first. Jeebus, these folks have never grown up. I hope it is wearing diapers.

I interviewed with them once, but that was after they’d gotten away from hardware and were strictly a software company that optimized someone else’s hardware. At that point most of my experience in the industry was useless to them. I have friends there, I assume it would have been a decent place to work.

Red meat to the Deplorables, but would’ve preferred that he set out a more coherent and conciliatory vision for where he intends to take America, and how he intends to get there.

“Where there is no vision, the people perish.” (Proverbs?)

If Trump means what he says, the indwellers in the Washington DC swamp will be soiling themselves as they contemplate their Panem on the Potomac gravy train coming to an abrupt and unceremonious halt.

http://circa.com/politics/donald-trumps-inaugural-speech-will-be-a-philosophical-document

preferred that he set out a more coherent and conciliatory vision

No. The moment you present a conciliatory vision, everybody sees it as a weakness and rushes in to take advantage. They prey on your good will not only to help them, but to come back with a hungry family, and eventually take over. We’ve seen this with the FSA, with illegal immigrants, and with the migrants in Europe.

This speech is one anti-globalist manifesto! Don of a new day.

How many benedictions are they going to have? May as well get an animist and a pagan to round it out.

Now, let’s eat!

I’m sure we will.

And I don’t know about you, but improvements, however small, are improvements and the trick is to keep building on those.

The cruelest thing that some idiot parents run on their kids, for example, is to give them a load of crap when they try to improve their grades and get an uptick. Oh, it’s just not good enuf and when they were in school blah blah blah. Instead of validating the uptick and encouraging further improvement.

No wonder some kids give up and become juvenile delinquents. Especially when they see brain-dead classmates being validated just for being mouth-breathers.

And so it is with any endeavor. You look for improvement and then further improvement.

If anyone feels they can do a better job than Trump, I encourage them to run for President and experience what he had to experience on the way there.

In all fairness, there’s not a lot of room for second chances for young folks these days. If you don’t start a sport or musical instument very young, if you don’t make family connections right away, if you don’t have a raft of school activities stretching back to 9th grade, then some other overachiever will beat you out for the colleges, the teams, the connections, etc. So in a way, small improvements really aren’t enough, because by that time, it’s too late.

I am sorry you feel that way, oxy. Perhaps you’ve never bottomed out in life, I can assure you it is a miserable experience. And indeed, forces sometimes tend to array against one when they seek to pull themselves out. I agree it can be discouraging, but one does what they can to survive and better their conditions. Or they can just lie down and die with the encouragement of the naysayers, of which there are many in society today, some of them “well-meaning”.

I don’t get all this hoopla about factories.

What kind of a loser one must be, to want a job in a FACTORY, this day and age?

(And even if you want it, aren’t you afraid you’ll be replaced by robots anyway?)

“I don’t get all this hoopla about factories.”

Which is why you should never have made it past immigration.

Trump is going to make Robots illegal….

I don’t get all this hoopla about factories.

What kind of a loser one must be, to want a job in a FACTORY, this day and age?

You are a truly horrible human being.

“You are a truly horrible human being.”

No, just an ex-commie. Maybe not even ex-.

Back in the 1980s, one of the people I came into contact with was a Russian mafia type guy who was part of a community of emigres from various Eastern European countries and Russia as well. He had a little network that assisted Russians to get settled in the US, mainly in South Florida. Not the most savory guy in the world. Really not much different from the Italian mafia. But he did have some stories to tell about some of his clients.

One was a woman who had formerly been an escalator counter in the old Soviet Union. Seriously, what she did all day was count the number of people going up and down an escalator. When she got to the US, he got her a job at Denny’s as a waitress. She was horrified and felt that the gig was beneath her. He said this was often a problem with some of his clients.

Not so different from what we see with US snowflakes these days.

“In all fairness, there’s not a lot of room for second chances for young folks these days. If you don’t start a sport or musical instument very young, if you don’t make family connections right away, if you don’t have a raft of school activities stretching back to 9th grade, then some other overachiever will beat you out for the colleges, the teams, the connections, etc. So in a way, small improvements really aren’t enough, because by that time, it’s too late.”

correct oldest has applied to a few UC’s very competative Janet Naponatanio needs out of state money.

meanwhile his friend got into pepperdine with even applying, his dad body guards for a prince of Saudia Arabia who got him in.. somehow

got a education right there didn’t he?

‘You are a truly horrible human being.’

People don’t even remember. I was listening to a financial show the other day and the guy mentioned US incomes are lower than 1972. Here’s the thing: in 1972 you could buy a new car for single digit thousands. You could buy a house for 25-35k. In my middle class neighborhood I can’t recall a mom that worked. It’s been so long we’ve forgotten what we lost. There weren’t dozens of old people working at Walmart. There wasn’t a Walmart. You didn’t see Chinese stuff on the store shelves. Made in the USA was the norm, and it lasted forever. I have hand tools that still work fine 30 years later.

This isn’t pining for the past: it’s what our government gave away, for some fantasy about world government. Factories meant if you didn’t go to college and get lucky somehow, you could still have a one wage middle class life, with retirement! And they could spend more and everybody had a higher living standard. There were at least a dozen factories where I grew up and that wasn’t some big industrial area. They are all gone. The US has lost 77,000 factories just since China entered the WTO. And if those factories are no big deal, why are they crying in Mexico?

“What kind of a loser one must be, to want a job in a FACTORY, this day and age?”

Unlike in Lake Wobegon, the children can’t all be above average. Some can grow up to be doctors, lawyers, engineers, etc. But about half the population simply lacks the talent and brains to do more than be a factory worker.

Would you prefer that they have productive jobs, pay taxes, etc., or would you prefer the status quo: menial jobs, SNAP/EBT cards, Section 8 housing, etc.?

And if those factories are no big deal, why are they crying in Mexico?

And, oh boy, are they crying. BMW is being lauded as a hero in Mexico, for keeping their factory there and standing up to Trump’s threats. States and municipalities have declared boycotts on Ford and GM products, even vehicles made in Mexico. There is some major butt hurt there, but also there is fear. The peso continues to lose value. A major meltdown is imminent.

But according to the Globalists the USA is irrelevant in the global economy. Never mind that everyone else wants to be a net exporter.

Unlike in Lake Wobegon, the children can’t all be above average. Some can grow up to be doctors, lawyers, engineers, etc. But about half the population simply lacks the talent and brains to do more than be a factory worker.

Even if every child “had the brains” to be doctor, etc., the economy couldn’t put them all to work. Someone had to work in the fields. Otherwise, we’ll all starve to death.

I’m actively encouraging my children to NOT attend college, but saving in case they don’t listen to me. Amazing how useless people have become regarding cars, plumbing, electrical, etc. Always want a job that pays well and provides a perfectly adequate middle class lifestyle? Stop farting around with IT/software development/appwasting that WILL be offshored to India. Learn a trade and don’t waste your earnings each week on beer, football tickets, and ATVs.
———————————————————————-

“But what’s the bottom line? Does education pay?

Not necessarily. Consider four equally talented 18 year- olds — Joe, Jill, Sue, and Matt. Joe takes a pass on attending college. Instead, he decides to become a plumber.

Jill chooses medicine. She goes to an expensive private college for four years, an expensive medical school for four years, does a low-paying internship for two years followed by a low-paying residency for one year, and finally, 11 years after high school, gets a real job, as a general practitioner.

Sue and Matt both get bachelor’s degrees in education at the same expensive college Jill attends, but Matt spends an extra two years after college getting his masters.

All four of these hypothetical kids settle down in Ohio, remain single, and retire at 62. At age 50, the peak earnings year for all four, Joe, the plumber, makes $71,685 (in today’s dollars). Sue, the teacher, makes $89,584. Matt, the teacher with the master degree, makes $103,250. And Jill, the doctor, makes $185,895. All figures and others used in this analysis are based on earnings data by age, state and occupation.

I used ESPlanner, my company’s financial planning software. The program figures out, in two seconds, each kid’s sustainable spending, taking account of educational costs, foregone earnings, annual federal and state income taxes, annual payroll taxes, Social Security benefits, and Medicare Part B premiums.

- Jill, the doctor, has the highest living standard. She gets to spend $33,666 year in and year out from age 19 through 100 This is after paying all her taxes and Medicare Part B premiums.

- Joe the plumber’s sustainable spending is almost as high — $33,243. All those grueling years of study, exams, late-night emergency calls, and Jill gets to spend a measly $423 more per year than a plumber.

- Sue has less spending power — $27,608 — than Joe.

- And Matt, with his masters? His spending power is even lower than Sue’s, at $26,503. Too bad he didn’t run the numbers before sending in his graduate-school application.”

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20110309/FREE/110309903/harvard-vs-plumbing-school-youd-be-surprised

Learn a trade and don’t waste your earnings each week on beer, football tickets, and ATVs.

A lot of people enjoy things like those.

‘States and municipalities have declared boycotts on Ford and GM products’

But. That would be…protectionist?

All four of these hypothetical kids settle down in Ohio, remain single, and retire at 62. At age 50, the peak earnings year for all four, Joe, the plumber, makes $71,685 (in today’s dollars). Sue, the teacher, makes $89,584. Matt, the teacher with the master degree, makes $103,250.

That doesn’t sound realistic. This site says that the average teacher salary in Ohio is around $56,000.

http://www.teacherportal.com/teacher-salaries-by-state/

It’s been so long we’ve forgotten what we lost.

I think there are a bunch of deplorables who haven’t forgotten.

“She was horrified and felt that the gig was beneath her.”

In the 70s Russia let 100 Jewish families leave. I worked with one of these guys at a high tech company in the 80s. He had two engineering degrees, was smart as a whip, energetic and easy to get along with. When he got to the US, his first job was sweeping a parking lot with a hand broom. He never said it was beneath him.

in 1972 you could buy a new car for single digit thousands. You could buy a house for 25-35k. In my middle class neighborhood I can’t recall a mom that worked. It’s been so long we’ve forgotten what we lost. There weren’t dozens of old people working at Walmart. There wasn’t a Walmart. You didn’t see Chinese stuff on the store shelves. Made in the USA was the norm,

THIS is what people mean when they say they “want their country back.” However, they couldn’t articulate it as well as Ben, and the social justice warriors co-opted it to mean people want to go back to the days of Jim Crow, then played their favorite race and gender card.

By the way, in my blue-collar neighborhood growing up, some of the moms worked, but it was almost always a low-skill part-time gig at the grocery store, or teacher’s aide or summer camp. At most, there were some full-time pink-collar clerical. But they certainly weren’t career supermoms they are today. This isn’t a sexism argument. The point is that the moms didn’t have to work.

“He never said it was beneath him.”

He probably wasn’t a commie.

“There wasn’t a Walmart. You didn’t see Chinese stuff on the store shelves. Made in the USA was the norm”

When Walmart first opened in my town in the early 90s, I remember its slogan being “we buy American so you can too”. They had it printed on a giant banner at the entrance. I was too young to know if it was ever more than just a slogan, but obviously it’s no longer even that.

“Made in the USA was the norm, and it lasted forever. I have hand tools that still work fine 30 years later.”

I suspect the (lack of) quality of products we get today is more a consequence of management culture in public companies than where products are made. There are very strong expectations and incentives to have aggressive production cost targets and then reduce them by some percentage each year. There are always some ways to do that with little effort and/or without sacrificing quality, but once you run out of those you pretty much have to reduce the quality/longevity of the product to meet those targets.

Unless that culture is changed I would not necessarily expect product quality to improve even if manufacturing is brought back to the US. However one way it could improve is if “made in USA” was marketed as “high quality” and resulted in higher cost targets.

BTW, great post oxy. Excellent clarification.

This culture that write of is baked into the way that corporations work. Wall Street demands higher profits every year. Even if corporations are very profitable, there is pressure for ever higher profits.

‘the moms didn’t have to work’

Before I get a call from mine I should say she raised 7 kids and certainly worked. Meals, laundry, running the house. She had this thing to get the boys up for school: she would get a pitcher of ice water and on the 2nd or 3rd call she’d pour it on you to get out of bed. That would usually only have to happen once, but I did have one brother who was a bit of a sleepy head. We didn’t have a dishwasher, so with meals cooked from scratch, there went several hours a day.

My mom didn’t use a pitcher. She would call in a modest tone. About 5 minutes later my dad would pick me up, sheets and all and drop me in a cold shower.

Once.

She worked her heart out too. Wish I could call her…

Yeah, I’m a horrible human being. I believe that what people need is education and opportunities, and help to advance themselves. It’s so horrible of me not to want people work like slaves in low level factory jobs, easily done by robots. Oh, the horror!

@Ben - “Made in the USA was the norm, and it lasted forever. I have hand tools that still work fine 30 years later.”

I remember. When I came here, two dozen years ago, I was horrified to see Chinese crap popping up in stores. I didn’t want it even if it were free - but for some reason, my American classmates weren’t as alarmed, and were happy to buy Chinese. Funny, no?

When I talked to them about the inevitability of the erosion of quality, or about the dangers of replacing high quality American-made goods, along with good American jobs, by cheap Chinese crap made with slave labor, all I got was shrugs and blank stares. My, my, how times have changed. NOW they get it, LOL. And the funniest thing? They still buy Chinese. I still don’t.

What I don’t understand is, which jobs do y’all want to “come back”? The cushy union assembly line factory jobs? Not gonna happen - they’ve already automated the crap out of those. Or do you mean the third-world slave-labor sweatshop jobs, at slave-labor rates? But why would you want those?

I’m all for bringing back “jobs”. I just don’t believe in the “factory” part of it. The world had changed, the robots are coming.

IMHO, instead of looking back to the past, it’s time to start thinking about the next step and the new dangers - such as AI making human workforce obsolete, the rise of oligarchic autocracy, the hollowing out of democratic institutions, and the worldwide ascendance of organized crime to power.

‘which jobs do y’all want to “come back”?’

Any and as many as possible. BTW, these factories going to Mexico aren’t robot factories. And notice in the article how much work was created in setting it up and supplying it. All this robot crap is Krugman types explaining why we should send all these jobs overseas.

“That doesn’t sound realistic. This site says that the average teacher salary in Ohio is around $56,000.”

That is her peak salary earned at age 50, 28 years into the future from when he starts his simulation. What do you think the avg Ohio teacher’s salary will be 28 years from now? He doesn’t even take into account pension benefits, extra income from working summer months, etc.

“A lot of people enjoy things like those.”

Enjoy what you want. Don’t bitch about being a debt donkey until age 80 because you mismanaged your finances.

When I meant that moms didn’t have to work, I meant that they didn’t have to bring home a paycheck.

And that’s a pretty strong testament to a Great America if your dad could support NINE people on one job.

You wrote, “Joe, the plumber, makes $71,685 (in today’s dollars)”. If the other salary numbers are not in today’s dollars, the comparisons are not useful. If they teacher salaries are in today’s dollars, an assumption is implied that they’ll rise faster than inflation.

My point about beer and ATVs is that they’re not extravagant luxuries. I suppose that you could tell people not to waste their money buying an AM radio or used books to entertain themselves.

‘could support NINE people on one job’

He was an entrepreneur. He had saved a little money from selling an earlier business and heard about dry cleaning. The fashions were changing with polyester and people still wore suits, etc. So he took the gamble with a franchise who trained him and helped pick a location. He started with one in north Texas: borrowed the cash for the land and building. He grew it to 3 and was fairly successful. But the moms of kids I knew didn’t have side jobs back then.

I believe that what people need is education and opportunities, and help to advance themselves.

That was the attitude in the 1990s. Americans are all smart! So let’s allow the factory jobs go overseas to the Third World masses, and let the poor Latinos work in the fields (no racism there, oh no) and the Americans can do the “knowledge” jobs and services for more money. It was one of the selling points of NAFTA and China most favored nation status.

But we see how it worked out. It turns out the Americans weren’t as smart as we thought. And even if they were, they couldn’t afford the training. And even if they did get the training free courtesy of Yellen and Sanders, there are just not enough knowledge jobs out there to employ everybody.

And to make things worse, many of those “knowledge jobs” could be done by computer over the Internet, which means there’s a whole world of people — particularly in India — who could get trained to do them. (sometimes even by their laid-off American predecessors) I hope Trump is thinking about those folks too.

However, you are correct that the manufacturing robots are coming, eventually. At the moment people in Mexico and China and Bangladesh are cheaper than machines. But if companies are forced to have factories on American soil, they’ll have to invent machines because the American people are too expensive. However, those machines are probably at least a decade away. That’s long enough to get many Trump supporters onto Social Security.

So that’s where the dry cleaner effect comes from.

The dry cleaner effect

@Ben - We shouldn’t be sending jobs oversees.

My point is, talking about “factory jobs”, specifically, is disingenuous.

It’s not the factory jobs, it’s almost ALL jobs which are in danger - formerly, from outsourcing, soon, from AI. Bringing a couple of factories back from Mexico will not fix this. JMHO

Also, the government of billionaires and generals will supposedly look out for a little guy and his “job”?

He’s lying.

It’s not “Washington” who outsourced American jobs - it’s CEOs, the same oligarchy who now comprises his cabinet.

However, you are correct that the manufacturing robots are coming, eventually. At the moment people in Mexico and China and Bangladesh are cheaper than machines. But if companies are forced to have factories on American soil, they’ll have to invent machines because the American people are too expensive. However, those machines are probably at least a decade away.

Just a datapoint here. We’re setting up the robots *today* to do jobs that Chinese and Malaysians are doing. And for the moment those factories with the new robots are still in China and Malaysia. But with the robots it will be much more likely to bring them back to the USA. You might say “who cares where the robot is”? Just like the Mexican car factory…it’s all those other jobs in the ecosystem around the main factory that matter…I’m anticipating an improvement in the situation from the American perspective as we get more robots online.

Several things:

There are many jobs in factories that are not low-level, mindless, low paying, etc. (i.e. all the stereotypes thrown at actual productive labor.) I grew up in a neighborhood where several fathers were managers and accountants at factories. Imagine that.

Second, a low-level, even mindless job, is better than no job. And a factory, any factory, offers more room for gaining knowledge, training, and advancement than a fast food or big box store. One big benefit is not having to do “customer service”. God save us all from having to interact with John Q. Public on a daily basis and obsequiously smiling at and kowtowing to every random customer who wants to boss you around and take out their frustrations on you. At least factory work allows you to keep your dignity and self-respect. I’d rather work on an assembly line with my fellow deplorables.

Even so-called “sweat shops” offer many benefits. That is just another stereotype. They provide jobs for people who don’t have many other options, and people gain skills and work experience which allows them to move on to other things.

Lastly, this whole thing of automation and robots is oversold. There are industries where much cannot be automated, such as sewn products (one of the world’s biggest industries.)

“All this robot crap is Krugman types explaining why we should send all these jobs overseas.”

Not really. Humans were the excuse or, rather, the cost of their labor was. If it’s even less expensive than low cost humans to automate, they’ll automate. I’m in that world. There’s an engineered wood plant in Southern Oregon that i used to call on that’s completely automated. A total of 5 maintenance techs run the whole show and you could eat off the floors in that place.

And while there are processes for which automation doesn’t make sense (yet), Karen, don’t fool yourself into thinking that will be the norm, including sewing. I also worked on a machine for inspecting (no more human inspection on that one) a threading process to make sure the material was being threaded properly.

Keeping or bringing factories here is of course a good thing because that means some jobs will come back. But like that mill, the present and future is less people making things, and more automated processes with a smart crew of engineers and techs to maintain it.

“You might say “who cares where the robot is”? Just like the Mexican car factory…it’s all those other jobs in the ecosystem around the main factory that matter…”

That’s right. Companies don’t exist for the purpose of employing people, they exist to turn a profit. That said, while there won’t be the factory jobs that once existed, keeping manufacturing here or bringing it back *will* result in a less severe loss of jobs.

That, and as you say Carl, the infrastructure of businesses that cater to the people at those plants. There used to be 9000 employees at HP in Corvallis. Word was for each HP employee, 3 people were employed to serve them in some capacity in the local communities. Last I heard HP only had about 700 people left in Corvallis.

One last thought. Some of that manufacturing won’t come back simply because the market for the product exists in the place it’s now being made. I think part of the allure in manufacturing overseas was not only (a) cheaper labor but also (b) a view that an up and coming middle class in those countries held more potential for sales growth.

I don’t get all this hoopla about factories.

HEY NY CHICK……….

LONG ISLAND CITY used to be the factory hub of NYC the G train from brooklyn used to be packed daily taking people to their jobs

now its almost a desolate stop at 830 am at 21st st hunters point…..and just look at all the massive luxury high rises on jackson ave……it was done on purpose and many many people were left behind….

https://twitter.com/LICCourtSquare

@ Karen - “this whole thing of automation and robots is oversold. There are industries where much cannot be automated, such as sewn products.”

Why do you have such low opinion of America’s capabilities, that instead of keeping and expanding its role as the center of high-tech innovation and cutting edge scientific research, you want to turn it into a backwoods low-level “sewn products” producer?

Honestly, all this lamentation about the “good old days of uneducated work in factories, lets bring back sewing products and coal” sounds eerily similar to welfare justification for those who “cannot get good jobs because of slavery heritage”. Same shit.

IMHO, in both cases only EDUCATION would solve the puzzle. Better education is what America really needs, instead of welfare or subsidizing obsolete industries.

Good reality check, Sleepless.

I’ve been putting food on the table as a civil engineer involved in hydraulic scada around hydro-power and irrigation systems, linux/postgre-sql/zworld control systems, cissp vpn network design, c#/php/hmi, etc., which has vastly reduced the traditional labor workforce as automation watches over things 24/7 while collecting data useful for real studies. The average skill-set needed has been raised very high and the qualified newbies now command $90k starting… and they have lots of choices too.

@ aNYCdj - I’m not disputing that factories are gone and people got left behind.

I’m questioning the notion that we’ll successfully solve all our problems if only we “bring back those obsolete jobs of 20-30 years ago”.

The world had changed. Horses were replaced by cars, and humans are being replaced by robots. Harping about “factories” ignores the new reality.

“Hire American” is a very sound principle, but first, it shouldn’t be limited to “factories”, and second, it should be supported by “educate American” (so that he can compete against smart foreigners and thrive in innovation based economy).

All salaries are in today’s dollars, 28 years into the future when they each achieve peak earnings at age 50. He’s making an assumption about wage growth that I wouldn’t make, but since it’s the same assumption across all jobs his analysis is still valid. Will it be 100% true, no. But the point is relative comparison as an exercise in seeing the cost of 1) college and resultant debt and 2) deferred earnings.

“My point about beer and ATVs is that they’re not extravagant luxuries. I suppose that you could tell people not to waste their money buying an AM radio or used books to entertain themselves.”

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! This is why I can’t take you seriously. The average american doesn’t have $1k saved for an emergency, yet you think an ATV with avg cost $5k out the door is not an extravagant luxury?! Then, you compare a $5k ATV with an AM radio and used books, items that cost 50 cents. Based on your support of the downtrodden who are always behind in education, I assure you that $5k is much better spent on books as opposed to beer, football tickets and ATVs.

http://www.seedealercost.com/products/category-models/index/id/4/productCategorySlug/powersports

rms,

about 10 years ago I was in the “manufacturing is dead in the US, maybe it’s time to move on” camp. And then I started working with an apps engineer in his late 50s who knew anything you could ever want to know about PLCs, drives, motors, etc. It felt like he was one of the last of his breed at the time and carried immense value. Given the massive amount of automation then and now, that guy is set for as long as he wants to work. So, I agree, there are good opportunities to sell and support this equipment.

I have far more interest in the medical world but have stayed here due to these emerging opportunities, especially now that more automation will be done here. That, and I think of what I do (electrical and mechanical emulation of human activities) as a subset of medical.

@ Karen - “this whole thing of automation and robots is oversold. There are industries where much cannot be automated, such as sewn products.”

Why do you have such low opinion of America’s capabilities, that instead of keeping and expanding its role as the center of high-tech innovation and cutting edge scientific research, you want to turn it into a backwoods low-level “sewn products” producer?

I repeat, you are a horrible person

And while there are processes for which automation doesn’t make sense (yet), Karen, don’t fool yourself into thinking that will be the norm, including sewing. I also worked on a machine for inspecting (no more human inspection on that one) a threading process to make sure the material was being threaded properly.

I’m not fooling myself about anything. Neither of these things even come close to automating the entire process. And…this machine inspects what, exactly?

Anyway, things change constantly. In a hundred years, much will be different. But as it stands today, and in the foreseeable future, there is much that either cannot be automated or which is not cost effective to do so.

Remember - we are in the middle of an enormous credit bubble, which makes developing, marketing, selling, and buying all this fancy machinery easy. It’s other people’s money being thrown at these companies.

Part of the issue with automation is technical and part of it is financial. A lot of people underestimate the financial piece of the automation picture. These are FIXED costs, whereas labor is a variable cost. Ask any business owner the difference. I’d rather have a bunch of fixed costs I can get rid of when I need to.

That was supposed to read “I’d rather have a bunch of variable costs I can get rid of when I need to.”

“even come close”
“foreseeable future”
“much that can’t be automated”

There’s no point arguing against such generalities but, yes, this machine DID do the entire process. It inspected individual threads being pulled from rolls into a loom-like device that would weave the threads into, if I remember correctly, rugs and towels to make sure (a) they were the correct color and (b) that the threads stayed into position as they entered the machine.

Okay, what wasn’t automated was the loading and unloading of the material and finished product but that was one guy on a forklift across multiple lines. Believe me, I was surprised that this was a cost savings for them and why I say don’t fool yourself. In that same “industry” non-wovens are also highly automated.

The things that aren’t being automated (as much) are things for which there is low volume (I see this in truck and lift equipment manufacturing. Contrast that with autos.) or things that can’t be processed in the same way humans see or manipulate them. Yes, cost is what drives this but believe me they are trying.

And forget 100 years. People were saying there is “much” that can’t be automated 10 years ago, for which it is now happening in real time. New, less-expensive robotic manipulators and end-effectors, 3D scanning systems, and sensors are starting to do those non-cost-effective, “can’t be automated” things we passed on 10 years ago.

Automated weaving machines! What will they think of next?

“The Northrop Loom was a fully automatic power loom marketed by George Draper and Sons, Hopedale, Massachusetts beginning in 1895.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Loom

Do you imagine that up until yesterday in modern factories this stuff was all being hand-woven?

Speaking of generalities, what exactly were people saying couldn’t be automated ten years ago that now is?

“what exactly were people saying couldn’t be automated ten years ago that now is?”

Good question! I had planned to add that but had to run…

-Metrology and grading on logs.
-Metrology on curved surfaces. Two of those that come to mind are some curved stainless (I believe they were dental) components. More recently (couldn’t do it 3 years ago) in this arena is curved glass. Think cell phones.
-Profiling slabs of meat/other foods for accurate portion size or features for cutting it.
-Pick n place of random product in a bin (think Amazon distribution center.
-Sizing of random product on conveyor for accurate packaging. (also distribution center to cut on shipping costs)

“Do you imagine that up until yesterday in modern factories this stuff was all being hand-woven?”

All? No, not all. I believe that was the argument you were trying to make.

Here’s a more recent example, for garments. More difficult than rugs and towels with normal corners.

http://www.vision-systems.com/articles/2012/06/vision-system-gets-stitched-up.html

Here’s a more recent example, for garments. More difficult than rugs and towels with normal corners.

http://www.vision-systems.com/articles/2012/06/vision-system-gets-stitched-up.html

LOL, your example is not of a working system in use, but rather a news article about a government grant awarded by the war department.

“what exactly were people saying couldn’t be automated ten years ago that now is?”

-Metrology and grading on logs.
-Metrology on curved surfaces. Two of those that come to mind are some curved stainless (I believe they were dental) components. More recently (couldn’t do it 3 years ago) in this arena is curved glass. Think cell phones.
-Profiling slabs of meat/other foods for accurate portion size or features for cutting it.
-Pick n place of random product in a bin (think Amazon distribution center.
-Sizing of random product on conveyor for accurate packaging. (also distribution center to cut on shipping costs)

Show me any evidence of people saying ten years ago that these things couldn’t be done.

“Do you imagine that up until yesterday in modern factories this stuff was all being hand-woven?”

All? No, not all. I believe that was the argument you were trying to make.

I never said or implied any such thing. Automated weaving machines have existed for over a century!

“The Northrop Loom was a fully automatic power loom marketed by George Draper and Sons, Hopedale, Massachusetts beginning in 1895.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Loom

You’re the one claiming this is some new development.

“Show me any evidence of people saying ten years ago that these things couldn’t be done.”

Darn, if only I had recorded those meetings. Would you like names and phone numbers, too? If we’re going down your semantics rabbit hole, I said that they (vendors, machine builders, end-users) said “can’t” at the time with the existing technology at the time not that they “couldn’t” (eventually). At the time, they couldn’t be done otherwise they would’ve been done…but they weren’t.

“I never said or implied any such thing. Automated weaving machines have existed for over a century!”

You said this:

“There are industries where much cannot be automated, such as sewn products (one of the world’s biggest industries.)”

Ah, yes, you said *sewn* products, not *weaved* products. So, let’s talk *sewn* products. What part can’t be automated? Sewing machines are automation. I’d say on that measure, much of the industry *is* automated. How many garments are hand-sewn (needle, thread, in hand) today for mass production? Or do you mean replacing sewing machine operators? Looks to me like that’s within “the foreseeable future.”

“LOL, your example is not of a working system in use…”

There are more links to click in that article, which is 4 years old, if you bothered to look. No, I can’t say how many they’ve sold. Their contact info is on their website if you’d like to ask them.

I was just watching the sad helicopter departure cam.

Odd, I exulted while seeing that helo departure cam. Goodbye and good riddance.

Issues

America First Energy Plan
America First Foreign Policy
Bringing Back Jobs And Growth
Making Our Military Strong Again
Standing Up For Our Law Enforcement Community
Trade Deals Working For All Americans

https://www.whitehouse.gov/america-first-energy

He’s still in campaign mode.

As a lifelong job-creator and businessman, the President also knows how important it is to get Washington out of the way of America’s small businesses, entrepreneurs, and workers.

Maybe. Or maybe he’s going to try something unusual and stick with what got him elected instead of having different agendas depending on who he is talking to?

So he’s going to keep on bragging about business successes.

White House website promotes Melania Trump’s modeling and jewelry line

Visitors to the newly revamped White House website get more than a simple rundown of first lady Melania Trump’s charitable works and interests — they also get a list of her magazine cover appearances and details on her jewelry line at QVC.

Trump’s biography starts with traditional details such as her date of birth in her native country of Slovenia and information about her background as a model. That’s when the brief backgrounder takes a promotional turn. The website includes a lengthy list of brands that hired her as a model and several of the magazines in which she appeared, including the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue.

It is not uncommon for the White House to note the accomplishments of the first lady in her official biography, but Trump’s decision to include a detailed list of her media appearances is unusual.

The site also lists the brand names of Trump’s jewelry lines sold on QVC, at a time when questions have been raised by critics about the ethical implications of the family’s business entanglements.

“Melania is also a successful entrepreneur. In April 2010, Melania Trump launched her own jewelry collection, ‘Melania™ Timepieces & Jewelry,’ on QVC,” the site reads.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/01/20/white-house-website-promotes-melania-trumps-modeling-and-jewelry-line/?postshare=9871484945021116&tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.281585b6310d

Probably so. Among other things.

White House website’s climate change page removed, moments after Trump takes office

Ashley Parker
The Washington Post
January 20, 2017, 12:51 PM

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-trump-white-house-website-20170120-story.html

So he’s going to keep on bragging about business successes.

Looks like someone else is still in campaign mode too, eh Mike?

a simple rundown of first lady Melania Trump’s charitable works and interests

I was also impressed by the Second Lady’s interests in art therapy.

I rather doubt either of them will suddenly become overnight cattle futures traders.

+1 Blue!

If Mikey’s going to go into campaign mode, so can others. Would you rather have the Saudi’s buy a watch to tell the hours, or buy an hour of access with the President and/or First Dude?

[now, if the Donald goes full on bribery boy, all bets are off...]

if the Donald goes full on…

If he has already given up billions to take millions in bribes I will be disappointed.

Jumped on it in the first 30 minutes? To be honest, I didn’t think Trump even *knew* about this. Maybe he’s more on the ball than all those pundits think.

Yesterday I posted a report of a near 50% loss on a Manhattan lux condo. Do you think he doesn’t know that? He lives there, is probably the single biggest owner of Manhattan RE. He builds and sells the airboxes. Above is a report of a 50% drop in South Florida. He owns RE down there too, he knows this. Same with Dubai, also above. He said it was a big fat bubble a year and a half ago.

I didn’t think Trump even *knew* about this.

He went to Wharton and became a billionaire. Not the typical hallmarks of a moron.

Legacy perhaps?

It’s right there in the excerpt - more experienced teachers.

The children are already behind at age 2! You think they magically make that up over the next 3 years before kindergarten with the same parents that created the initial deficit?! Further, ground will not be made up in school through hiring more experienced middle and high school teachers. The basis is formed early in childhood so that’s where the focus should be. Parenting programs, preschool, etc. Even the New York Times agrees.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/20/opinion/sunday/friedman-how-about-better-parents.html

http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21608779-there-large-class-divide-how-americans-raise-their-children-rich-parents-can

I was raised in a tony San Jose “super-zip” but couldn’t afford to buy there when my turn came. My current “zip” has many natural resources, but it scores low in the IQ dept; lots of obesity, few good schools but plenty of churches, and the gas station sells night crawlers.

Not until Monday. lol

Not until you’re no longer butt hurt. It is likely to take quite a while.

The term is worn out. I called it with socialism way back, but the lovers of that word didn’t lose interest for another couple of years.

‘I called it with socialism way back’

It’s a noun. I don’t think it’s going away.

“Butt hurt is now worn out.”

How about “Knickers in a twist”? That one’s fun.

Indeed.

I think the Daily Mail had a photo in one of their articles that showed Bill thowing that old horndog look at Melania.

He seemed to pep up a bit while watching Melania.
In these times of tumult & terror, isn’t it nice to know some things never change?

“closer than ever”

Yesterday it was.

No, it wasn’t yesterday than it was in October, 1962.

Russia’s mafia wants to rule the world. They want to replace your democracy with their own brand of corrupt and autocratic crazy.

That’s their true agenda, not “anti-globalism”, but the destruction of democracy and the destruction of US.

What’s happening now is their dream come true. They are hoping this is the beginning of the end, for America. They may be right.

You lost. We won’t go to war with Russia. Sorry.

Russia’s mafia wants to rule the world.

That’s interesting. Much of American big business wants the US government to effectively run the world.

Russia’s mafia wants to rule the world.

Yeah, so do some teenage boys in my neighborhood. They’ve got about as much chance of ruling the world as the Russian mafia does.

@ Karen -

Russian mafia already owns and rules Russia, the third largest petro-producing country with nuclear weapons, large army and immense natural resources. And they are effectively using this power to successfully meddle in the world’s affairs, and to diminish the US influence wherever they can.

Only an idiot would deny that Russia is dangerous, and up to no good.

Only an idiot will blame Russia for their problems of own making.

to diminish the US influence wherever they can.

How’s that a bad thing? What US influence in forin countries have benefited amerikans? Our influence in Afghani/Iraqi/Libya/Somali/Yemeni made things so much better, right?

@butters - Yeah, sure buddy. It’s better to be weak than strong, it’s better to meekly yield your power to a bully, and let foreign dictators establish their world order, while kicking you to the curb.

Who needs influence in global affairs? Nobody. (Except Putin.)

You don’t need influence. Your place will be by the toilet, as Russians say (it means the lowest abused (raped) status in a society run by thugs).

How old are you to believe this kind of nonsense?

#fakeputinbots