Getting Nervous Because They’re Losing So Much Money
A report from Curbed Chicago in Illinois. “While Chicago’s new condo market continues its slow thaw out of the deep freeze of the Great Recession, an ambitious project planned for the northwest corner of Chicago and Wells appears to have hit serious trouble. Known by its address of 808 Wells, the luxury development from Smithfield Properties and Berkelhamer Architects was set to rise 24 stories and contain just 45 well-appointed residences priced from just under $1 million up to $4.5 million. Units in the building first hit the MLS last summer as a one-story temporary sales center was erected at the site of the future residential high-rise.”
“In the months since sales reportedly began, all online listings have disappeared. The brick-and-mortar sales center has not been open during the indicated hours and a large billboard advertising 808 outside Chicago’s East Bank Club has been removed. Perhaps most indicative of trouble is a notification of an expired domain when trying to reach the project’s once functional website at 808wells.com. A call to the number listed on the sales center window was not immediately returned.”
The Business Observer in Florida. “The Naples residential real estate market, normally a high performer in the region, took a hit last year. The Naples Beach region posted the largest decrease in overall closed sales for the year among the entire market. Total sales there dropped 21%, from 1,922 in 2015 to 1,525 last year. On the flip side, inventory rose dramatically. Single-family inventory is up 24% year-over-year, while condo inventory is up 47%.”
“John R. Wood Properties Managing Broker Coco Waldenmayer cites competition from new home developments as one factor in fewer sales of existing homes in 2016 compared to 2015, which was a strong year, he adds. ‘The report showed the highest number of closed sales in 2016 occurred in the North Naples area, which is also where a rash of new home development is taking place,’ Waldenmayer says in the release.”
“‘With a surge in inventory from new construction, buyers had more options in 2016,’ adds Adam Vellano, West Coast Sales Manager for BEX Realty Florida, in the statement.”
The Silicon Beat in California. “For the fourth consecutive month, rents have fallen around the Bay Area. That’s according to a new analysis by the Axiometrics research firm, which shows rents sliding across the region, from San Jose to San Francisco and Oakland. Last year, as rents began softening elsewhere in the region, Oakland rents continued to appreciate. But over the past few months, Oakland rents have softened, too.”
“‘The rental market has pretty much stopped,’ said Ron Stern, CEO of Bay Rentals, a housing relocation service. ‘I don’t know if it’s just a rainy January. But a lot of people’ — landlords, property managers — ‘are getting nervous, because properties are sitting unfilled. They’re losing so much money, it doesn’t make sense. So they rent it out cheaper — drop it a couple of hundred bucks — and get on with it.’”
The Real Deal on New York. “There’s no place like home — a price-reduced home. Here’s a look at the biggest chops in New York City for the week. 1 West 72nd Street, Apt 77 - This three-bedroom, 4,700-square-foot co-op in the iconic Dakota first hit the market back in January last year asking $16.7 million. It was owned by the late Jacqueline Bikoff, said to be an Iranian pianist, ballerina and Studio 54 regular. Property records show she paid $13 million for it back in 2010. It was reduced to $15.9 million in August, and is now asking $12.5 million, a reduction of 22 percent.”
“In total, 14 properties priced over $10 million received reductions of more than 5 percent in the period between Jan. 17 through Jan. 23, according to data from StreetEasy. Out of that 14, five were units at Extell Development’s Carlton House.”
’she paid $13 million for it back in 2010. It was reduced to $15.9 million in August, and is now asking $12.5 million’
The entire post 2010 boom erased. Fascinating.
Other interesting tidbits:
Zestimate of $18,000,000!
HOA fees: 11,000/month.
I drove by this place a few months age. It’s a great location near the park, but has a certain unreality knowing Lennon was killed there.
Oh, and don’t forget the rent Zestimate: $48,000/month.
Is there a doorman?
For that HOA I’d ask for metal detectors and armed guards. I once lived in a high-rise when they switched out the door man for a “concierge,” which is code for switching from high-end rent-a-mall-guy to a low-end rent-a-mall-guy. Fun times.
“The entire post 2010 boom erased. Fascinating.”
Maybe on luxury, but not on the low side. The “low side” is now $850K for a coop one-bedroom, instead of $670-690.
Give it time. All the price points underneath get crushed.
Housing prices and rental rates are falling at a good pace now which is very bullish for the economy. Big Lee.
Stock market booming, financials (banks) bullish, interest rates expected to go up in the future, and inflation expected to rise - not indicative of falling RE prices in Manhattan.
My rental in Las Vegas is dropping like a rock suddenly (-$6500 to $297K.) Lease is up in five months. I’m so tired of moving; we’re like the boat people.
I’m so tired of moving;
+1. The biggest thing pushing me to look to buying is being sick of trying to find a decent house rental with a decent (hopefully professional!) landlord every couple of years, and the hassle of moving.
Exactly. I’d hate to knuckle under after holding out all this time, but I’m afraid the next move might have casualties. Last time it was July 1, 110 degrees plus. Took me a week to get over what I think was heat exhaustion.
Long term, this house is not suitable for us at all. I doubt my mother will live another year (85 today, very poor health, arranging in-home hospice.) We’re old and that would leave my daughter with this white elephant. I hope they don’t gouge us on the new lease, if there is one. At least I never hear from the LL. Our neighbor, however, has made it plain she looks down on renters and says it’s her duty to watch the place on behalf of the owners (!) I finally had to ask her to stop contacting me (your cat stepped on my lawn!), crazy b!tch.
’she paid $13 million for it back in 2010. It was reduced to $15.9 million in August, and is now asking $12.5 million’
“The entire post 2010 boom erased. Fascinating.”
It starts at the top. Soon to be all price ranges erased. MAGA.
Housing will never give up. Housing will never surrender.
–NAGA
And it hasn’t sold. Last week we saw a NYC condo bought 2012 for just over $32M, cut to just over $18M, hasn’t sold. Miami Beach super lux condos off 54% YOY.
LMFAO A fool and is money is soon parted.
Dow 20k feels so dam good or does it?
If you are not getting out of stocks, you should at least be selling calls on them, very little upside potential and a lot of downside.
in theory upside infinity downside to 0 meaning completely broke, so IMO its far riskier to be out of stocks than in them. But they go down so much faster and most people can’t deal with it. That’s why they own bonds, which suck.
I would think there is risk in health care stocks they have out-preformed the S&P for over 20 years and if new president is serious about lowering costs why not allow importing pharmaceuticals from Canada for example. crush prices.
In my old age I have learned I can’t time the market very well so I set a asset allocation and ignore the noise see boogleheads for more info. I’m 60% stocks 40% bonds and cash.
I did time the housing market but I think it was complete luck. Not that I’m complaining.
The property taxes alone makes me shiver…
The property taxes and HOA fees would bankrupt me in a year.
<i.But a lot of people’ — landlords, property managers — ‘are getting nervous, because properties are sitting unfilled. They’re losing so much money, it doesn’t make sense.
No, Mr. Stern, it makes perfect sense - renters are balking at paying rents they can’t afford.
Can’t lower those prices…
They are sticky…
Especially when you are repaying debt off the rental payments.
<i.But a lot of people’ — landlords, property managers — ‘are getting nervous, because properties are sitting unfilled. They’re losing so much money, it doesn’t make sense.
Ray, you should be using the JT Extension so you don’t have to worry about unclosed tags!
Brookline, MA Housing Prices Crater 13% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/brookline-ma/market-trends/
OK, Trump humor. I bet there isn’t anyone who can not laugh! Just be patient a few seconds for the all English portion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELD2AwFN9Nc
Whatever happens friends, find something to laugh about every day.
LOL.
Hi Ben,
I believe I understand your broader, macro view on residential housing at this point. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think you feel that Fannie and Freddie’s backing of the 30 year mortgage is the worst culprit in the bubble/crash drama.
That said, I can’t believe the news today:
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/25/governments-fannie-mae-will-back-pe-giant-blackstones-rental-business-debt.html
I’m convinced that the end game here is that the reits will own most residential real estate in the US. What Amazon did to retail, the reits will do to home ownership.
I’m curious… to fend that off, would you object to significant chunks of residential real estate being legally converted into “owner occupied only”?
Given the sad state of REIT’s, they’ll be bankrupt.Big Lee.
The REITs will sink and not come back to the market under the same management, because the losses will be massive. Most of the pups in that business have never seen anything but bubble except for a brief attempt at market correction.
Still trying to get my head around this line:
“Shifting corporate risk to taxpayers has been a profitable business over the past few decades, and throughout history. We expect we will see more of this shift in the coming years.”
“Dow at 20,000 still looks cheap considering earnings growth likely ahead, strategists say” cnbc
Total horsesh@t
Yes and that is why it is now more a fool with separate you from your money than a fool and his money is soon parted. If the deal works out the money goes to the “fool” if it does not work out the taxpayers eat it.
And I have a feeling that isn’t going to change under the new regime.
“Shifting corporate risk to taxpayers has been a profitable business over the past few decades, and throughout history. We expect we will see more of this shift in the coming years.”
This is precisely why we have such a bifurcation in wealth in this country. When you pick winners and losers, this is the end result.
Fannie and Freddie’s backing of the 30 year mortgage
You make it sound like all the 30-year mortgages are the same. Fannie+Freddie are fine, when they are buying 20% down (or 10% down with PMI) fixed-interest mortgages based on steady income.
Things began to go wrong when Fannie+Freddie began buying ARMs and fog-a-mirror mortgages, often based on FICO instead of income. Fannie+Freddie are a private company, so they had to buy the mortgage because (1) other banks were offering those mortgages and F+F had to compete (2) F+F are a private company themselves and so they had to chase profit and (3) if F+F didn’t back those mortgages, they were seen as racist.
The real problem was the Congress continued to guarantee F+F even when it was clear that they were making mortgages for people who obviously weren’t going to pay back all 30 years.
It’s pretty much limited to subprime buyers with little money down and suckers willing to put skin in the game to compete with them. But no worries because Uncle Sugar has it all federally guaranteed with taxpayer money…even rentals!
Swamp creatures are running amok!
REITs have guaranteed double digit returns. A man on the radio was nice enough to share his secret to wealth building with me if I attended his upcoming seminar.
Operators are standing by…
’significant chunks of residential real estate being legally converted into “owner occupied only”
I don’t know how you can accomplish that legally.
I wouldn’t use the word culprit. I’m just trying to understand how we got here. The house I grew up in cost about the same as a house in Palo Alto CA when my parents bought it. Even during the Texas oil/RE bubble of the 80’s, flipping houses wasn’t going on. Yes, there were lots of SF foreclosures but most of that was because of job loss. A $500,000 house back then was a mansion on significant acreage. Now there’s $500,000 houses all over the place.
I came across data once that said the GSE’s went from 25% to 45% of the total loan market from 1986 to 1989. Now it’s way more than that. I watched an interview with Dan Proft and Bethany Mclean where they discussed that the market would “crash” without 30 year loans. The timing of the run-up coinciding with the 30 year loan expansion is what got me to thinking along these lines. After all, what happens if the GSE’s go away? Crater.
This is just a US theory. Many parts of the world have bigger bubbles than the US and don’t have 30 year loans.
One thing which can never be underestimated, IMO, is the psychology driving these bubbles. The “housing is a path to riches” mentality is so pervasive it’s shocking. Even after the massive bust and associated financial ruin of so many, it’s now a distant, faded memory. People act like it was a one-off and prices are going to the moon and beyond, never to fall again.
Even after the massive bust and associated financial ruin of so many, it’s now a distant, faded memory.
This is one part of the damage that the Fed has done by intentionally propping up and reinflating the bubble. By avoiding the carnage, they avoid the populace learning the lessons that come with the carnage.
After the Roaring 20’s, the carnage was deep enough that the lessons lasted three generations; now, all is forgotten by most within a decade.
I don’t know how you can accomplish that legally.
HOA have the legal ability to restrict the number of rentals; many condo HOAs bylaws have clauses regarding this in order to prevent their building from falling below the owner-occupied limits that can make it hard to get a mortgage to buy in the property. The owners all have a common interest in making it possible to sell their own units.
Many parts of the world have bigger bubbles than the US and don’t have 30 year loans.
And no government backing at all. Fannie and Freddie are unique in the regard.
Yet other countries still have financial markets that provide debt to people who want to buy homes.
Slightly off-topic–A left-leaning friend of mine lamented that Trump just made it harder for people like him to buy a home (referencing the FHA insurance reduction undo). I quickly pointed to Dodd Frank causing lenders like JP Morgan to exit the FHA market entirely and told him that Obama did WAY, WAY more to limit the FHA market through this legislation…where was the outrage then?
The US simply needs to leave the mortgage market. As long as private markets think the government will be involved, people don’t bother starting mortgage finance companies…they just start intermediaries to sell to Fannie/Freddie…they are not finance companies, they are marketing companies. Quicken Loans anyone?
If there was a strong signal for F&F to lose government backing permanently over time, other players would emerge.
‘Fannie and Freddie are unique’
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Mortgage_and_Housing_Corporation
‘In 1954, the federal government expanded the National Housing Act to allow chartered banks to enter the NHA lending field. CMHC introduced Mortgage Loan Insurance, taking on mortgage risks with a 25% down payment, making home ownership more accessible to Canadians.’
‘The banks thereafter began to issue mortgage loans with CMHC underwriting. If the individual receiving the loan went bankrupt then the bank who gave the loan would not lose money, but instead would be reimbursed by the government.’
Any system that has a central bank or government backing lenders, even implicitly, is subsidizing and/or guaranteeing house loans. That would include Australia, New Zealand, the UK, etc. And note that in these latter countries and ours, interest rates are pinned down for the purpose of encouraging house lending. Then there’s the tax code.
I think the biggest factor was adopting owner’s equivalent rent into the calculation of the CPI in 1981. If the CPI included the actual change in SFH prices during the run-ups, the Fed would have had to address it and increase rates.
I’m convinced that the end game here is that the reits will own most residential real estate in the US. What Amazon did to retail, the reits will do to home ownership.
I’m not.
An interesting corollary is the self-storage industry. Years ago, it was very fragmented, pretty much all of them were owned by “mom and pops”. Then came in the big players…Public Storage, Extra Space, etc. And they started to buy up the mom/pops (incidentally, the founder of PS also founded American Homes 4 Rent–he saw the same fragmentation in single-family rental, and an opportunity to buy low).
In any event, here we are decades later, and approximately 2/3 of self storage is still owned by mom/pops.
Same story with commercial property…despite REITs existing for decades, there is still A TON of private ownership.
The value of all US residential real estate is approximately $30T.
The value of the entire US stock market is $25T.
With 140MM housing units in the country, and 10MM SF homes rented out by mom/pop owners, and a small fraction of that owned by the major REITs (I believe American Homes 4 Rent is something like 40k), your “endgame” is a LONG, LONG, LONG way off, if at all.
I’m curious… to fend that off, would you object to significant chunks of residential real estate being legally converted into “owner occupied only”?
Why Salon says pottersville rocks its what hard core liberals crave.
http://www.salon.com/2001/12/22/pottersville/
In Capra’s Tale of Two Cities, Pottersville is the Bad Place. It’s the demonic foil to Bedford Falls, the sweet, Norman Rockwell-like town in which George grows up. Named after the evil Mr. Potter, Pottersville is the setting for George’s brief, nightmarish trip through a world in which he never existed. In that alternative universe, Potter has triumphed, and we are intended to shudder in horror at the sinful city he has spawned — a kind of combo pack of Sodom, Gomorrah, Times Square in 1972, Tokyo’s hostess district, San Francisco’s Barbary Coast ca. 1884 and one of those demon-infested burgs dimly visible in the background of a Hieronymus Bosch painting.
There’s just one problem: Pottersville rocks!
Ironically, the real Bedford Falls is Seneca Falls NY. It is indeed a decaying Liberal Utopia.
I’d never seen/read that before. Interesting…it does lay out interesting differences in our culture along with the conservative tendency to worship the past that they remember as children. (And because it’s remembered from the perspective of a child you get the simplification and idealization of it automatically)
Coral Gables, FL Housing Prices Crater 15% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/coral-gables-fl/home-values/
“Rightsizing” comes to the San Francisco tech bubble. Which means rent decreases are sure to follow.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/01/25/tech-boom-seen-through-san-franciscos-office-space-market/
here is an epic rant about this bogus recovery:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gwg8rivvsVg
Unwatchable. A speech communications major he is not. His skills are so atrocious that I was done at 2 minutes.
seems like the general public isnt to excited about dow 20k?
These folks are master manipulators.
Heh, all those predictions: “If Trump gets elected, the market’s gonna tank. Apocalypse now! Oops, well, maybe later. We have to stop him from taking office, because the market’s gonna tank right after his inauguration! Apocalypse now! No? Well, sometime after his inauguration. During his presidency.”
yeah that sh@t is hilarious isnt it? All the doom and gloom about trump and now even warren buffet loves him.
‘If Trump gets elected, the market’s gonna tank.’
Yeah, that putz Mark Cuban was going on about the ‘big crash if Trump is elected’ prior to the election. Then after the election he decides that the Mavericks won’t be staying in any Trump hotels. What a sore loser. He should focus less on politics and more on the Mavericks.
Cuban’s had one of the historically 10 best players in the NBA ever for his entire career and managed one flipping title. Cuban blew up the 2011 Championship team because ‘the rest of the NBA doesn’t understand the new collective bargaining agreement’…well, apparently they did Mark. I guess you aren’t the only NBA owner who can hire lawyers…what a tool.
A tool and a putz for sure. Ever watch Shark Tank? He sits there looking like he’s straining for a bowel movement when he listens to the pitch from those seeking money for their ventures. He wants to look like he’s listening intently, but here’s what he’s really thinking:
“I’m just a putz who got lucky. I really have no clue what I’m doing and wouldn’t know a good opportunity from a hole in the wall. Therefore, I’m out. But I have to make it sound good, like I know what I’m doing while making the beggar in front of me look pathetic. How do I justify why I’m out? I’m actually broke. Has anyone noticed that I’m almost always out? Gotta say something good. What’s it gonna be this time?”
The market was gonna tank because the market does well on peace and love (globalism) and Trump is is all about racism and hate (anti-globalism). Then the market figured out that Trump also likes reducing regulations and taxes, which makes the market soar. The two cancelled each other out. Looking at the rate of DOW increase, it was likely to reach 20,000 right about now anyway, with or without Trump.
“Trump is is all about racism and hate (anti-globalism)”
Anti-globalism is not the same as racism and hate. Don’t believe the hype.
Don’t worry. I was actually *mocking* the hype. Peace and love are globalism, see? Lie those multicultural Coke commercials. But if you’re not globalist, then you’re a racist sexist xenophobic anti-Muslim fearmongering p-grabbing sonofaB. (I left out the Godwin Law descriptives.)
But it still stands that Trump’s net effect on the DOW should be very small. At least until Congress starts getting rid of taxes and regulations.
Yeah, that not true. He’s not all about those things. He’s also about making money unethically.
But it still stands that Trump’s net effect on the DOW should be very small.
Doesn’t that assume the market is about fundamentals rather than emotion?
“Trump is is all about racism and hate…”
Most people believe what they are told they should believe, by trusted voices of authority. Thinking about what one sees and drawing one’s own conclusions is hard work.
“The world is as angry as it gets. The world is a mess, David”.
The totalitarian left threw a tantrum in Boulder last night:
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/front-range/boulder/milo-yannopoulos-denounces-liberals-at-cu-boulder-event-gets-protests
Left and right don’t mean much anymore.
‘Brian Eno: ‘We’ve been in decline for 40 years – Trump is a chance to rethink’
“Most people I know felt that 2016 was the beginning of a long decline with Brexit, then Trump and all these nationalist movements in Europe. It looked like things were going to get worse and worse. I said: ‘Well, what about thinking about it in a different way?’ Actually, it’s the end of a long decline. We’ve been in decline for about 40 years since Thatcher and Reagan and the Ayn Rand infection spread through the political class, and perhaps we’ve bottomed out. My feeling about Brexit was not anger at anybody else, it was anger at myself for not realising what was going on. I thought that all those Ukip people and those National Fronty people were in a little bubble. Then I thought: ‘F***, it was us, we were in the bubble, we didn’t notice it.’ There was a revolution brewing and we didn’t spot it because we didn’t make it. We expected we were going to be the revolution.”
“It is easily summarised in that Joseph Stiglitz graph.” The trouble now, he says, is the extremes of wealth and poverty. “You have 62 people worth the amount the bottom three and a half billion people are worth. Sixty-two people! You could put them all in one bloody bus … then crash it!” He grins. “Don’t say that bit.” (Since we meet, Oxfam publish a report suggesting that only eight men own as much wealth as the poorest 3.6 billion people in the world – half the world’s population.)’
“Actually, in retrospect, I’ve started to think I’m pleased about Trump and I’m pleased about Brexit because it gives us a kick up the arse and we needed it because we weren’t going to change anything. Just imagine if Hillary Clinton had won and we’d been business as usual, the whole structure she’d inherited, the whole Clinton family myth. I don’t know that’s a future I would particularly want. It just seems that was grinding slowly to a halt, whereas now, with Trump, there’s a chance of a proper crash, and a chance to really rethink.”
“Left and right don’t mean much anymore… now, with Trump, there’s a chance of a proper crash, and a chance to really rethink.”
Can someone please explain to me (and this is a question that’s been puzzling me for many many years, since I first got to the U.S.) - why do Republicans and Democrats alike support illegal migration? Clearly, the majority of Americans (including legal immigrants) are against it, but there was always this strange bipartisan support for amnesty, for not enforcing laws, etc.
I could understand supporting immigration for population growth (to avoid Japan’s deflation problems due to aging population). But in that case, why would they (both parties) support illegal migration of poorly educated and unqualified, while severely restricting legal immigration of qualified? I just don’t get it.
Is it just about cheap labor for unqualified jobs? (If it is, then why would Democrats support it - aren’t they supposed to be pro-labor?)
‘why do Republicans and Democrats alike support illegal migration?’
Globalism.
I could understand supporting immigration for population growth (to avoid Japan’s deflation problems due to aging population).
price deflation isn’t bad.
growing population doesn’t cause price inflation.
It’s about cheap labor, but it’s also about cheaper operating costs. You can just hand the guy a $100 bill. No pesky record-keeping, no paying SS taxes or health insurance. You can run a dirty and dangerous factory which violates regulations, knowing the workers won’t complain. Also, you hire only what you need. If you need 5 guys one day and 3 guys the next day, that’s all you pay for. No need to float those two extra guys on the payroll.
Republicans favor illegal immigration because the big-business lobbyists paid them to like illegal immigration. Democrats like it because it makes them look tolerant and welcoming, not to mention that the US citizen babies will grow up to be good Democrats. In addition, the Dems are educated libs with knowledge jobs who believe that their own job will never be filled by an uneducated illegal.
“Can someone please explain to me (and this is a question that’s been puzzling me for many many years, since I first got to the U.S.) - why do Republicans and Democrats alike support illegal migration? Clearly, the majority of Americans (including legal immigrants) are against it, but there was always this strange bipartisan support for amnesty, for not enforcing laws, etc.”
Money. Rapacious, greedy, money-grubbing pigs is all they are.
@oxide - Thank you, I didn’t even think about operating costs.
And for big business I guess it’s not just about employing cheap illegals, but also about creating pressure on higher-qualification American labor - if illegals crowd out Americans from cheaper unqualified jobs, then there will be more (cheaper) labor available for higher-qualification jobs. Very good for business, very bad for workers.
I still don’t understand why would Democrats betray their pro-labor stance in favor of “looking tolerant and welcoming”. They could have been very tolerant and welcoming without betraying their labor base or adherence to law and order.
The people I’ve talked to who honestly like illegal immigration just happen to also honestly dislike the Americans who would otherwise be doing those same jobs at a higher rate of pay and benefits. Due to political and cultural differences.
Very good for business, very bad for workers.
things that are good for businesses, are good for the employees that are hired by them.
‘why do Republicans and Democrats alike support illegal migration?’
it’s how they built the transcontinental railroad and they’ve been at it since.
labor shortages cause Renaissances and who wants those things?
http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/178421/opinion/the-black-death-gave-life-to-the-renaissance
Really I have no idea ?
“things that are good for businesses, are good for the employees that are hired by them”
Hahaha. A comedy writer, huh?
@ Ben Jones - “Globalism.”
No. Actually, it seems that the explanation for support of illegal immigration is mainly because it’s pro-business/(and by corollary anti-labor).
Which is ironic, since that’s what the republican base keeps voting for, “pro-business”. And then complains about “jobs”.
No it’s globalism. When did the Democrats abandon labor? At the exact same time as they embraced NAFTA. Why do the globalists push immigration in Europe? These Syrians aren’t brought in for labor.
I encourage you to do some reading. Globalism isn’t about trade. That’s just a step. Common currencies are the same. The goal is to break down borders and create trans-national governments, eventually a world government. Immigration, illegal or otherwise, makes borders meaningless.
Ben, I don’t know about that. It sounds a bit overblown, like Illuminati or free-masons scare - I don’t doubt that there are some “globalists” who are sincere adepts of such views, but I don’t believe that traditional political establishment is. I believe they are just pro-big-business.
As for Syrian refugees crisis in Europe - I actually know about what caused it. They were not brought in by western globalists, they were pushed to Europe by Putin. It’s a fact.
It was a very clever multi-faceted operation -
1) stir up shit and support war and slaughter of innocents by Asad, in order to create humanitarian crisis (the more bombings of hospitals and schools, the better);
2) run a propaganda campaign in the Middle East and Africa, “informing” the population there that Europe decided to open its borders and that all refugees will be given a lot of money, free houses, free nice cars etc. (the Arabic edition of Russian RT was caught doing it);
3) pay human traffickers to bring the unwashed hoards to Europe (or let them come through Russian border - like thousands of “Syrians on bycicles” who crossed the border into Norway. Anyone who knows how hard - nay, impossible - it is to cross the Russian border without explicit authorization by Russian border patrols, would be left very surprised at how all these thousands of “refugees” were freely let though the Russian border without so much as a “stop, identify yourself”.)
It doesn’t matter to me if you believe it or not. The first time I heard the term was in college. The professor immediately told us it was inevitable. I was studying real estate at a college that had every magazine on the planet. I found the Tri-Lateralist’s monthly and read it. It spelled it out very clearly just as I said.
It’s not a conspiracy if it’s right out in the open.
Debt based economy needs future debtors.
Democrats need new voters.
Repubs need dumb fooks who will go to the stupid wars.
Repubs love cheap labor for their corporate masters.
hey were pushed to Europe by Putin. It’s a fact.
No it’s not a fact. It’s a meme. Before Syria there was Iraq. Before ISIS there was Al-Qaida. Think through it….who was behind them?
It’s a fact that the current refugee crisis in Europe is Putin-made. Russian Arabic-speaking media were caught red-handed doing it.
Police of Turkey, Italy, and Greece all said that it was clear that all of sudden someone had paid the human traffickers to organize this migration on a large scale (someone had leased ships etc., it was not random, it was highly organized.)
Putin needs weakened Europe and preferably the dissolution of the EU, he also needs Merkel etc. gone, in order to end sanctions (which are killing Russian economy, by the way). Sending millions of refugees to Europe is Putin’s clever way of achieving these goals.
@Ben Jones - “It doesn’t matter to me if you believe it or not. The first time I heard the term was in college. The professor immediately told us it was inevitable.”
I think you’re confusing a term and a dream with conspiracy.
It is inevitable, if humanity doesn’t die off first and keeps evolving, but it will take centuries. Although I think our chances of dying in a human-made catastrophe are much higher than ever reaching that next point of human evolution.
There is a difference between believing that “some time in the far, far away future, when humanity evolves, it will stop killing each other and will unify in an open world-wide democracy of milk and honey, and travel to stars” - and believing that today, our government is secretly plotting to enslave us to the world government.
Letting in illegal migrants “to appease big business and provide cheap labor” is much more likely than letting them in so that “the country collapses and all borders seize to exist to appease globalists”. JMHO
Don’t be a DebtDonkey.
‘It is inevitable’
Ah. Even as it’s in its death throes.
Ben is correct. Read the papers written by the globalists in the 1950s. They state that the biggest challenge to one-world government is nationalism, and America’s at that time was second-to-none.
The easiest way to destroy a country and its nationalism is to allow unfettered immigration, as many of the newcomers just come for the free stuff and don’t give a rat’s heiny about what it took to make our country great in the first place.
Hence NAFTA, CAFTA, and so on . . . the first step is to create multi-country blocks, like the North American continent. To essentially turn us into one big Mexico (3rd-world country). And the unity-loving Liberals (that’s doublespeak, BTW) are busy sowing hate and discord between all of the new racial groups here, all united against us evil white people that formed America as we know it. Divide and conquer.
Take a look at Europe - the Globalists have destroyed it! Most European countries will be majority Muslim in another few decades.
Hence Brexit, and Trump.
The battle rages on.
And somehow Henry Kissinger and George Soros are still living!
Again, you’re confusing a long term trend (that would take CENTURIES to come to fruition, if ever) with a “conspiracy”. Believing in a “conspiracy of globalists” that governments participate in is ridiculous.
As Isaak Asimov used to say:
I’ll believe anything, no matter how wild and ridiculous, if there is evidence for it. The wilder and more ridiculous something is, however, the firmer and more solid the evidence will have to be.
That is cool what Eno said. I’m a fan of his 70’s ambient albums and his collaborations with Fripp.
He gets it:
‘I thought that all those Ukip people and those National Fronty people were in a little bubble. Then I thought: ‘F***, it was us, we were in the bubble, we didn’t notice it.’ There was a revolution brewing and we didn’t spot it because we didn’t make it. We expected we were going to be the revolution.’
Yes, he’s right. Bubbles are hard to see when you are inside of one. I think in some ways, we all live in our own little bubbles, but hopefully not a big fat ugly one.
carl sagan
“I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness…”
“…we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness…”
We are there.
yes, many people say he was prophetic.
True, governments can reduce the rate of interest in the short run. They can issue additional paper money. They can open the way to credit expansion by the banks. They can thus create an artificial boom and the appearance of prosperity. But such a boom is bound to collapse soon or late and to bring about a depression.
Ludwig von Mises
gov will offer to change the price of things and fools will forever believe them
ACA etc………..
Affordable housing
Of course, even with you critical faculties in order, you can still be wrong about things….
http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-01-23/news/1991023131_1_kuwait-saddam-hussein-sagan
they put out most of the fires fairly quickly.
‘Contact’ remains my favorite movie. It’s the only plot I know of wherein we might alien life, but we’re not killing them and they’re not killing us. Instead, they shrug their shoulders and say, “Yeah, we don’t know that much more than you do about existence. But we do have more technology and we’ll help bring you along one step at a time.”
It plays with religion vis a vis science without being idiotic.
And the special effects at the end are fantastic. It looks as modern today as it did then. Robert Zemeckis.
Carl Sagan’s book.
Oops… “wherein we ‘meet’ alien life”
yes, it was (for me) a really good movie.
HBB Poll: Does the southern “wall” actually get built?
(I use quotes because I’m assuming there may be a significant “virtual” aspect to it…electronic sensors/surveillance, drones, whatever.)
Yes, though not as described in campaign rhetoric.
I think so. Otherwise why would the Mexican rulers be swallowing their tongues right now? Maybe afraid of losing their cut from the cartels?
I’m going to second Professor Bear. Yes, something will get done, but we don’t really know yet what that is.
They are hiring 5 or 7 thousand deportation agents. Not going to release illegals prior to deportation - that’s big. Trump just told Mexico pay for the wall or don’t bother visiting to talk about NAFTA.
Here’s the thing I don’t get: why is Mexico the way it is? How can Mexicans and Hondurans and Guatemalans move to the US and hold regular jobs and lead regular lives? And it’s been this way for decades. Obviously there is something wrong with their set up. Imagine if Mexico was a functioning economy, like Canada?
I could see the excuse if they were just out from under colonial rule. But those days are almost a century past. They have helicopters, jets, cell phones, you name it. But they dump medical waste in the ocean. Look at their poverty levels. They have land, resources, agriculture. They need to fix their economy.
I’ll point out again: the cartels run the human trafficking. For 20 years there’s been more profit in human trafficking than illegal drugs.
“They are hiring 5 or 7 thousand deportation agents.”
There’s a wall right there. A wall of meat.
Blocking the cartels and cutting off remittances is a double whammy for the ruling class in Mexico. That’s why they’re so hysterical. Plus the safety valve of bleeding off their worst to the US gets stuck in the closed position.
“We’re gonna leave NAFTA!” Buh-bye. And don’t let the door hitya where the good lord splitya.
One news story had an interview with a Mexican economist. She predicted that withdrawing from NAFTA would destroy thousands of American jobs in the auto industry. Car parts were made in Mexico, and withdrawing from NAFTA would interrupt the supply chain. Americans would have no parts to assemble and hence would lose their jobs.
I couldn’t figure if she was trying to trick the Americans or was being just plain stupid. She seemed to think that you grind your old factory to a dead stop and then all the workers *wait* for six months while the new one is set up. No, duh. You set up your new factory first, transfer the supply chain to the new factory, and *then* shut down the old factory. Car parts went from the US to Mexico with no interruption in supply chain and they can come back the same way.
The supply chain for car parts is terrible these days, and has been for decades. Warranty work is often delayed several weeks “waiting for parts.” “Just in time” inventory means “never in time.”
It sounds like people who do their own auto maintenance don’t have to rush down to the parts store and stock up before the prices go up. They have six months or a year.
why is Mexico the way it is?
i lived in mexico from 2003 to 2011. i left because violence was increasing.
mexico has huge, corrupt government. there’s not much actual rule of law. it’s selectively enforced.
lot’s of red tape and when you do get a business started, you have to keep sporadically paying what i call ‘protection money’ although it really isn’t that. it’s just when they decide you look like you might be making money so it’s time to milk the cow.
there’s also a mind set of ‘live for today’ or ’spend it now’ because someone.. government or some other robber will take it from you later.
what they lack most is honor and the rule of ‘just’ law.
it’s not a good place to live unless you get a place on the ocean and skip social interaction.
they like to ‘pretend’ they have a republic. much like (but not as bad yet) the ‘republic of n. korea.
it can’t recover like it is and it will probably slowly get worse.
@tj - THAT! Same shit in Russia.
@Ben Jones - see above, tj nailed it. One word answer - corruption.
What many people don’t seem to understand is they think “democracy” as in a “democratic form of government” is enough to bring prosperity and economic development.
But democracy on paper means nothing when in actuality the country belongs to criminal gangsters, and when corruption is like cancer that permeates the entire society, top to bottom.
That’s why America was different. Oh, we have enough corruption of our own - but it’s nothing like the deeply institutionalized corruption in those other countries.
That’s why I was so annoyed when I saw dirty foreign mafia money being welcomed in the West - because at first you take their money, next thing you know you catch the same disease of corruption and lawlessness.
The only real long-term fix to the problem (people from down south being desperate to get to the US) is for those countries to fix their sh*t. Then people won’t feel they need to leave in order to survive.
true, but dang near none of them have any idea how to do it.
Mexico is a failed state due to corruption. It’s run by the narcos. The government bleeds the citizens and businesses dry, and turns a blind eye to all the problems. The narcos have infiltrated the military, the police force, and the entire political establishment.
I’ll play. I predict that Trump and Congress compromise on a sort of pay-as-you-go wall. Earn a little, build a little, earn a little more, build a little more. So some of the wall will be built, but it will take a while.
I’m much more interested in the enforcement of laws already here. Should be interesting to see what kind of marching orders Trump gives to Sessions.
Odd, (((cuckerberg))) of fakebook fame who opposed the border wall along with his (((fellow travelers))) built a big wall around his new estate in Havieee while the ink was still drying on the purchase agreement. While that was met with concern, his attempts to screw his neighbors over and take their land with his (((lawyers))) is not going over well
https://www.instagram.com/p/BPftIBGghk9/
“Does the southern “wall” actually get built?”
Yes, along with underground tunnels to go through it.
You know what would be much more helpful than a stupid wall? Enforcement - including fining and punishing the employers of illegals.
What if they work under the table?
NO. There will be holes.
she paid $13 million for it back in 2010. It was reduced to $15.9 million in August, and is now asking $12.5 million, a reduction of 22 percent.”
and 2010 was the low down year
hmmmmmmmmmmmmm
And that’s the problem with interfering with markets. Housing never bottomed out.Big Lee.
After years of seeing those goofy internet ads featuring Obama, I’ve just seen my first one featuring Trump!
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v408/csskalet/2017%20uploads/Capture_zpstiuv51v0.jpg
Dallas High School Teacher Posts Video “Shooting” Trump With Squirt Gun In Classroom
Christine Rousselle |Posted: Jan 25, 2017 10:35 PM
A high school art teacher in Dallas posted an Instagram video of herself “shooting” an image of Donald Trump with a squirt gun and screaming “die” during Friday’s inauguration. A copy of the video went viral on Twitter before the original source was identified.
The teacher has since deleted the video, but here’s a copy:
The video was captioned with “Watching the #inauguration in my classroom like…. #no #stop #denial #squirtgun #hypocrisy #powerless #saveusall #teachthembetter #atleastitsfriday”.
It’s unclear if there were students in the classroom at the time and it is also unclear as to who took the video. It was posted by the teacher on her personal Instagram. According to Gateway Pundit, the Secret Service is aware of the video.
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/christinerousselle/2017/01/25/dallas-high-school-teacher-posts-video-shooting-trump-with-squirt-gun-in-classroom-n2276971
Girl, 5, suspended from kindergarten for ten days after threatening to ’shoot’ friend with pink Hello Kitty bubble gun
By Daily Mail Reporter
PUBLISHED: 02:11 EST, 19 January 2013
Ficker says the girl didn’t even have the bubble gun with her and has never fired a real gun. He says she’s ‘the least terroristic person in Pennsylvania.’
According to Ficker, school officials heard about the conversation and questioned the girls for 30 minutes the next day.
Pennlive.com reported that the children’s parents were not informed this meeting was taking place.
But the 5-year-old was deemed a ‘terrorist threat’ and suspended for 10 days. The school then required the girl to have a psychological evaluation.
When the psychologist said she was not a danger to others, district officials reduced the suspension from ten days to two days.
But the girl still has the incident on her record. Ficker intends to have this expunged and that the student is offered an apology.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2264933/Girl-5-suspended-kindergarten-days-threatening-shoot-friend-pink-Hello-Kitty-bubble-gun.html#ixzz4Wswi89IQ
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Second Grader FACES EXPULSION For Having Squirt Gun And Nerf Gun In Gym Class
ERIC OWENS
8:34 AM 06/16/2016
In the latest incident of anti-gun hysteria to erupt in a school setting, a second-grade boy has been suspended from school for 10 days and could be permanently expelled because he brought a small water pistol and a small Nerf gun to school.
The 7-year-old boy, Josiah Green, lives in Portsmouth, Virginia and attends Douglass Park Elementary School, reports local NBC affiliate WAVY-TV.
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/06/16/war-on-boys-second-grader-faces-expulsion-for-having-squirt-gun-and-nerf-gun-in-gym-class/#ixzz4Wt1zxYTj
6-Year-Old Suspended For Pointing Fingers In The Shape Of A Gun
03/06/2015 01:13 am ET | Updated Mar 06, 2015
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/06/6-year-old-fingers-shape-of-gun-suspended_n_6813864.html
“Pop Tart” suspension should be upheld, school official says
CBS NEWS July 1, 2014, 5:05 PM
A hearing examiner supported the decision of a Baltimore-area school principal to suspend a 7-year-old boy for chewing a Pop Tart into the shape of a gun. But his family’s attorney is reportedly vowing to take the case further if the decision is upheld.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/examiner-recommends-school-board-uphold-pop-tart-suspension/
did the gov goon union save her?
MSM swallows its tongue and bleeds from the buttocks:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-26/alex-jones-infowars-offered-white-house-credentials
ha-ha, Salon had a nervous breakdown: “They’re not REAL journalists…”
ironically Infowars is now just as credible (if not moreso) that the MSM
I had a feeling that was coming,
Yesterday it was wall-to-wall Ron Paul.
Maybe Alex Jones will send PJW to Washington. ♥♥♥
LOL, you’re not the first lady I’ve seen who likes the looks of PJW. “Those eyes!”, lol.
Yup, you’re jealous.
Anyway, eyes or not, if PJW gets into the White House briefing room, he’s going to have to up his game. His trademark is choosing the most egregious videos to point out obvious hypocrisy that it’s hard to disagree with. I call it picking the low-hanging cherries. The issues that America and the world faces are lot more complex than fat third-wave feminists.
There are some thin attractive feminists, too. Sad but true.
I like when he goes off on SJWs and imitates them and speeds up the recording to sound like angry chipmunks.
He said Alex Jones once dared him to ask Trigglypuff for a date.
Great, that will drive the left nuts (AJ press credentials.)
Look at all the infowars fans coming out (myself included). I believe in all conspiracy theories - because if you wait long enough, they all turn out to be true.
Since they got rid of their comment boards (on Inauguration Day), NBCnews feels freer to post pro immigration stories. One story about Trump’s wall exec order has a big picture of Mexican (?) citizens holding each other while looking mournfully at a piece of the existing wall. In the other story, the headline and opening paragraph says it all:
—————-
Immigrants Train to Defend Themselves, Families in Trump Era
While President Donald Trump dedicated his inauguration speech last week to the “forgotten men and women” of the United States, another group of forgotten people in small towns and big cities across America prepared to defend their families, friends and neighbors from policy changes that could put them at high risk for deportation.
“We are preparing them to defend their rights against possible raids during the Trump administration,” Ragbir told NBC Latino.
—————
“Defend my family” is a phrase used by conservatives and NBCnews knows it.
Defend what rights? They’re here illegally, they should have always known they risked deportation.
Exactly. This stuff is so rich it defies logic. They’re CRIMINALS. Try going to another country illegally, then “training to defend yourself.”
The mainstream media has proven they are the ENEMY of the American people, carrying the water for the moneyed special interests.
THEY ARE NOT CRIMINALS.
Movement of people is as old as the mankind. What has changed is the criminal nanny states with criminal organizations like Repubs and Dems.
White House denies offering Infowars credentials
BY JOE CONCHA - 01/26/17 10:05 AM EST
The White House press office is denying it offered credentials to conspiracy theorist Alex Jones’s website Infowars, after Jones claimed in a video that he had been offered access.
“He is not credentialed for the White House. The White House Press Office has not offered him credentials,” White House deputy press secretary Sarah Sanders told BuzzFeed on Thursday morning.
Jones on Wednesday posted a video claiming the White House offered him credentials.
“Here’s the deal, I know I get White House credentials, we’ve already been offered them, we’re going to get them, but I’ve just got to spend the money to send somebody there,” Jones says in the clip.
“I want to make sure it’s even worth it. I don’t want to just sit there up there like ‘I’m in the media, look our people are there.’”
http://thehill.com/media/316252-alex-jones-white-house-offered-infowars-press-credentials
LOL!
@palmetto - “Ha-ha, Salon had a nervous breakdown.”
Alex Jones is a despicable human being, and also not a real journalist. What he did to parents of those slain kids is unfathomable.
Palmy, how does it feel to support everything scum? For lulz?
Just looking through some FSBOs on Zillow in an area north of me. If you bought anything in 2006 and want to sell, you’re getting a serious haircut.
BTW, Zillow now has a “I disagree” button next to its Zestimates
Realtor.com estimates seem to be showing lower than Zillow generally. Wonder why that is?
We receive Fox and CNN on cable here in Canada. As well as CBS, ABC, etc.
President Trump seems to be moving the USA towards his promises but all but Fox seem to be reporting it at least close to accuracy.
We have stopped watching CNN completely because of their obvious bias.
Always thought American media was honest. Guess not.
BTW, always thought we got the better part of NAFTA. Don’t mind it becoming a more level playing field.
“Always thought American media was honest.”
Lol. That was your first mistake.
But don’t feel bad, I often believed stuff that was reported, myself.
We come to find out the media was in the business of “manufactured consent.”
One of the best parts of the Trump presidency is watching them bleed.
“We have stopped watching CNN completely because of their obvious bias.”
Cut right to 3:10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgSfZZM5i-A
LOL, that’s a video of the U Texas Band playing “The Star Spangled Banner” in a music hall in Tokyo.
‘the luxury development …was set to rise 24 stories and contain just 45 well-appointed residences priced from just under $1 million up to $4.5 million. Units in the building first hit the MLS last summer as a one-story temporary sales center was erected at the site of the future residential high-rise.’
‘In the months since sales reportedly began, all online listings have disappeared. The brick-and-mortar sales center has not been open during the indicated hours and a large billboard advertising 808 outside Chicago’s East Bank Club has been removed. Perhaps most indicative of trouble is a notification of an expired domain when trying to reach the project’s once functional website at 808wells.com’
I checked the URL and it’s not taken. It only costs a few bucks to keep a sales website up, so these guys are really toast.
Sad thing about Trump is, the same bag of tricks he used on real estate deals won’t work on China. He needs to careful regarding Taiwan. China will go to war over it.
Trump is a one trick pony with a Twitter account and his TV locked on Fox news.
‘He needs to careful regarding Taiwan. China will go to war over it.’
Maybe if you break off and join Canada these mighty Chinese will spare you? They put asbestos in a luxury car a few years ago.
Ben- Do you approve of a war with China? I know Phoenix is bad, is it that bad?
Looks like it will be up to Bill O’Really on Fox.
‘Do you approve of a war with China?’
Did you get that from Dumbo-vision? I don’t watch TV or pay much attention to the Threat Inflation Complex. I’m not worried about China. They can’t even clean up their air. Even Greece can do that.
NPR, on the drive home last night. Great interview. People at tennis camp discussing it this morning too.
“One of my favorite Ralph Wiggum Moments”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Sor0LXiSZg
“People at tennis camp discussing it this morning too.”
Followed by that picture
I have to go but when I get where I’m going I will still be laughing.
D’oh! Jeebus, I just spit up my diet-free Coke! Ya gotta stop doing this to me.
Aw, lordy, that’s priceless.
LMAO
Your welcome Ben!
Kid, needs to square up his shoulders more.
You taking one for the team everyday is better than winning the lottery.
Is this the same kid from your tennis camp new?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8a9R59ffv9c
“They put asbestos in a luxury car a few years ago.”
Did a remodel in a condo on the water in Palm Beach in 2001. We had done one in the same building a few years earlier for the same builder.
When I was going over the plan with him I asked…
Do you want us to scrape the popcorn (which I had done with another guy and no we never wore masks) and slick the slab like the last one?
He answered…
No, they found asbestos in the popcorn in another unit so we have to have an asbestos removal company scrape and dispose of the popcorn.
I asked him…
What about the last one we did for you in this building?
He smiled and said…
Oh, there was no asbestos in that one.
‘Supply is the name of the game with the apartment sector, which uncharacteristically underperformed through 2016. The sector, which has been a perennial leader in recent years, posted a flat 2.86 percent total return for the year, a stark contrast with its more than 50 percent rise during 2014 and 2015. Among the four major REIT sectors (along with retail, office, and health care), it is one of the most interest sensitive, and it appears the impact of rising rates canceled out any benefits that should have accrued from rising household income and expectations for inflation.’
‘Though 2016 was disappointing, the outlook for the apartment sector remains positive: executives maintain that flattening supply growth will bolster returns. “[M]ultifamily will continue to be a favored asset class for commercial real estate investors,” says Kim Betancourt, director of economics and market research at Fannie Mae. “A combination of . . . a healthy spread between cap rates and U.S. Treasury rates, continued job growth, and demand for multifamily rentals from millennials, coupled with low homeownership rates, present a positive scenario for multifamily fundamentals over the next 12 months.”
‘The apartment sector also shows resilience to the movements of the broader equity markets; in some cases countercyclical results can even be seen: Falling or flat income encourages potential homebuyers to hold off until income growth returns.’
‘a stark contrast with its more than 50 percent rise during 2014 and 2015′
And they are still bullish. This is how you get a glut with hundreds of thousands of units on the way.
And they are still bullish. This is how you get a glut with hundreds of thousands of units on the way.
It’s all about supply and demand. They might be bullish, but I’ll be multi-family starts are down in 2017 over 2016, especially in NYC, SF, LA, Denver, etc.
“be” = “bet”
‘multi-family starts are down in 2017 over 2016′
Too late.
Record supply and growing and collapsing demand at 30 year low.
Yeah I’d say it’s too late.
Holy Cow, the State Department swamp just drained itself:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-26/entire-senior-management-team-state-department-just-resigned
The world is now safer for children everywhere.
We will find out what POTUS thinks tonight after he watches Bill O’Reilly. Right now Trump is watching Dr. Phil.
Sad natty. No culvert surfing today?
Matty Ice! Gonna win the SB!
65 today and sunny. Hence getting outside. Dont worry May will be here soon enough.
This isn’t all that surprising. They are just Obama political appointees resigning. Trump appointees will fill the slots in a couple weeks. There’s always huge amounts of turnover when the admin changes.
Heh, seems like some even date back to the Bush admin. Like Vicki Nuland, for example, although I don’t know if she was one of the ones who left. I hope so, though.
According to the article:
“Victoria Nuland, the State Department’s assistant secretary for Europe, was also not asked to stay on.”
I am glad that her particular skill set is not deemed valuable by the new administration.
Out go the neocons, here come the neocons.
You think the agenda is the same? I think the Globalists are taking a hit below the belt every day.
Too damn funny:
Cramer: It’s not too late to get into the market
CNBC Videos CNBC VideosJanuary 25, 2017
Don’t get left behind!! Buy now!!
A 75-mile hole in the wall
There’s a slight problem with President Trump’s Great Wall with Mexico: the Tohono O’odham Nation.
The Native American tribe controls about 75 miles of the border of the United States and Mexico that slices through its sovereign territory. Tribal leaders are already saying that the wall is not going to divide its territory.
Verlon M. Jose, the Tohono O’odham Nation’s vice chairman, was not subtle when discussing the wall when he spoke in November to Native News Online: “Over my dead body.”
Tribal officials did say they are willing to meet with President Trump to discuss the matter further. As Mr. Jose said:
“I don’t wish to die, but I do wish to work together with people so we can truly protect the homeland of this place they call the United States of America. Not only for our people but for the American people.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/26/us/politics/donald-trump-administration.html?_r=0
So what about the current vehicle barrier? Is there a gap in it where the reservation borders Mexico?
Watch out, Trump will just route the wall around the US sides of the reservation, lol
That’s exactly what I was thinking his solution would be, too. Maybe give them a day to decide first.
Fine… then build the wall around the reservation.
That’ll work out well for them when the blue hairs have to wait to get to their casino and the tribe members have to cross a border to go to the rest of the US.
Another bad day for globalists:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump%e2%80%99s-impending-bans-on-refugees-and-immigrants-triggers-fears-globally/ar-AAmgcF0
A Trump administration draft executive order to start vetting potential immigrants and visitors, as well as institute bans on refugees seeking to resettle in the United States, will shatter countless dreams and divide families, according to would-be immigrants and human rights activists.
They all think that they have an inalienable right to come here. Just don’t expect any reciprocity from their governments. You want to move there? Sorry, unless you’re a wheel barrel full of cash, you aren’t welcome.
Yeah, the Mexican government deported those Cubans the minute Obama said they couldn’t come to the US. After taking all their money of course.
“After taking all their money of course.”
Good point.
The Mexicans are constantly deporting illegal Central Americans, after they rob them and beat them silly. No catch and release program down there.
Especially not surprised with the Cubans. Mexico has always had a cozy relationship with Cuba. They were the first nation to recognize Castro’s regime and never observed the brocade. I could see them send escapee’s straight back to Cuba, especially now that the PRI has the presidency again.
“You want to move there? Sorry, unless you’re a wheel barrel full of cash, you aren’t welcome.”
No change there, it’s been that way for a while, I think. A guy I know was telling me about a friend of his who was looking to emigrate to Australia. He had plenty of money, but they wouldn’t accept him because he had an autistic son. They were concerned the son could become a charge on the state.
Imagine that, showing some common sense regarding immigration.
The “divided families” canard again…
Great points here about how Mexico handles anyone who enters illegally.
“The “divided families” canard again”
I laugh every time I see that. Just waiting for the Don to tweet “We have no intention of dividing your families. Your children can and should go with you and they always could. Don’t you want them?”
I almost wouldn’t have minded so much the people who came from Mexico to work in order to support their families back home, after they got screwed over by NAFTA. It’s the ones who came to breed for the gibs that come along with a US born child that are problematic. That’s a whole different kettle of fish and demonstrates outright intent to colonize.
Well, at least they can’t press 2 at the White House anymore.
Jake Tapper having a hindquarters hemorrhage. Cleanup on Aisle 3!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-26/trump-sign-executive-order-demanding-probe-voter-fraud
Trump is reviving that old 50s show, “You Asked For It!”
The investigation report will pretty much have to find voter fraud. Inconclusive or negative findings could prove fatal to the investigators’ future careers.
Who will be investigating? Why don’t we ask Kellyanne to lead the investigators - she’ll find any amount of “alternative facts” about anything you’d want, including that the Sun revolves around the Earth.
As Stalin famously said - “what matters is not how people vote, but who’s counting”. Same with investigations, if they are not independent.
Don’t be a DebtDonkey
A new donk in town, Mr. Big. Let’s give oxy a rest, lol.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60bzbfHP1Hs
You’re doing better than me. I’ve been on a Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons kick for the past couple of days. Jeebus, I hope I look as good at 82 as Valli does. Should I live that long.
The really old videos crack me up, but the music is still great.
“The investigation report will pretty much have to find voter fraud. Inconclusive or negative findings could prove fatal to the investigators’ future careers.”
My guess is, from what I think (and I stress the word “think”) I know of Trump is that this investigation has already been well under way, and that there’s solid, quantifiable evidence in hand, otherwise Trump wouldn’t have announced it.
You probably didn’t watch any of the Project Veritas videos, but there were Democrat operatives like Bob Creamer and Scott Foval flat out admitting to voter fraud on camera, quite proudly, I might add. I also think Foval might be waiting in the wings to sing like a canary, after the DNC threw him under the bus. He was not a happy camper.
The press’ never-ending constant insistence that “there is no evidence of voter fraud” indicates the opposite. That’s why they are freaking out.
Please - Project Vertias videos, more votes than voters in Democrat counties in Michigan, 100% votes for Obama in several counties during 2012, etc etc.
During 2016, a man here in the LA Area (San Pedro, CA) found 83 ballots, all addressed to different people supposedly living in his elderly neighbor’s 2 bedroom apartment.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/03/voter-fraud-california-man-finds-dozens-ballots-stacked-outside-home.html
Good job press.. you walked in to it again!
Good job press.. you walked in to it again!
yep, they can’t even sense when they’re being led by the nose. it’s comical.
Off-topic, but here’s a short clip from yesterday. The Portland cops are finally getting sick of these stupid protesters blocking traffic. Nice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0f3SnOiqcs&feature=youtu.be
Affordable Housing Is Now a Middle-Class Crisis in California
Christopher Thornberg
January 24, 2017
California’s housing crisis is spreading to the middle class
| photo by Nick Bastian via flickr
California has a housing crisis.
This probably doesn’t sound like news given the recent publicity about disputes over homelessness, rapidly rising rents, and gentrification—and the flurry of policy proposals for everything from rent control to fees on commercial construction and property sales used to support affordable housing programs. Unfortunately, the conversation about housing is largely disconnected from the reality of the problem, its causes, and potential fixes.
Debate about the housing crisis typically revolves around low-income households, and understandably so. The rule of thumb is that people shouldn’t spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing. Meeting such a standard is nearly impossible for most low-income families. More than 90 percent of California families earning less than $35,000 per year spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing. But this isn’t new; that percentage has been stubbornly high for years. Nor is this an exclusively Californian problem—the comparable figure for the United States overall is 83 percent.
The crisis for families living at or close to the poverty line absolutely deserves attention. But what is also disturbing about current trends is that the crisis is now spreading to middle-income households, families earning between $35,000 and $75,000 per year.
In 2006, 38 percent of middle-class households in California used more than 30 percent of their income to cover rent. Today, that figure is over 53 percent. The national figure, as a point of comparison, is 31 percent. It is even worse for those who have borrowed to buy a home—over two-thirds of middle-class households with a mortgage are cost-burdened in California—compared to 40 percent in the nation overall.
The social costs of this middle-class housing crisis are not sufficiently appreciated. These middle-income families have less money to spend on other goods and services—and that creates huge losses across the economy. It forces California employers to pay higher wages than elsewhere in the nation, raising costs for California consumers and diminishing the state’s competitiveness. Some middle-class households choose to move out of California in search of more affordable housing, depriving the state of young, skilled workers who represent the backbone of the workforce—and the state’s future.
…
“If you were to compare the same newly built house in California and Texas, the California house would typically sell for twice as much as the one in Texas. If you were to add up all the additional costs of building that house in California—land costs, permit fees, construction code—the number would not fully explain the gap in prices. The gap is much wider. In other words: builders make a lot more profit building a house in California than they do in Texas.
Normally, this would suggest a surge in building in California, as opposed to the opposite, as capital is allocated to pursue higher returns. The trouble is, we’re not talking about a free market in California, which limits competition in the construction business. The state has erected two giant barriers to entry: Proposition 13 and the California Environmental Quality Act, known as CEQA.
If you were to compare the same newly built house in California and Texas, the California house would typically sell for twice as much as the one in Texas.
Proposition 13 limits the value of housing to local governments by keeping property taxes much lower than in other parts of the United States. This means that California’s local governments—at least the ones that are fiscally wise—do not encourage residential investment, since it produces less in taxes. In fact, they often promote commercial investment that brings in other types of taxes instead. And they use their power to levee very high fees on those who develop, and create restrictive rules that add to the cost of the process.
The state’s CEQA law imposes similar costs on growth. Yes, such environmental laws are well intentioned and desirable in theory—forcing developers to mitigate excessive disruptions they might create in the natural or urban environment. The problem is that “excessive” is being interpreted to mean “any” in the current application of the law. Developers are forced to pay for many costly mitigations. Even worse, various interest groups and NIMBY-minded residents have essentially figured out how to hijack the system to block development and serve their own ends.
Is there any conversation about reforming CEQA in Sacramento? None. Any chance of reforming Proposition 13? Very little. The only discussion to date involves the so-called “split-roll” that would raise commercial rates while leaving Proposition 13’s limits on residential property taxes untouched. This will only make the local government bias against residential real estate worse.”
Texas has crazy high property tax and you can sit on your lawn. (fire ants) no surf, and big gals.
Same cost of materials, same cost of labor irrespective of location.
Wrong as usual, Housing Analyst. I’ve lost track of how many names you have used on this board - I have a Word document on both home and work computers with the list - I’ll add this moniker to them.
lolz….. I had no idea how obsessed you are. Thanks for the info.
lol@thornburger. Big Lee
big lee the fraudster
I’m living in your empty skull. Big Lee.
“California has a housing crisis.”
There’s no excess-credit or asset-deflation in Thornberg’s world. He’s just another MSM spin-master who needs to spend at least five years in Pol Pot’s subsistence university.
Marin County, CA Rental Rates Crater 8% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/marin-county-ca/home-values/
adios Peso….
Over 80% of Mexican exports went to the US in 2015 and the US imported $295 billion worth of goods and from Mexico, which accounts for 13.2% of all US imports.
Those avocados just got a lot cheaper.
Unless of course there is a 20% tariff on them.
How come we never put a tariff on illegals?
So now Trump wants to put a 20% tax on Mexican imports. Which means that he’s asking all of us — Americans who buy things — to pay for the wall. Because all of the importers will pass those costs on to consumers. That’s how it works. So congrats, Trump supporters. You may get your wall. And along with it, higher prices on goods to pay for it.
‘congrats, Trump supporters’
Depends on how you look at it. The peso is tumbling, makes their stuff cheaper for us. Our products are more competitive. We buy more from US companies. When we walk from NAFTA (which this route would suggest) lots more jobs here. You may have heard Bill Clinton mention this country hasn’t had a raise in 11 years. It’s been more like 40 years. Now you may like the cheap labor at your hotel, but I suggest you visit a Phoenix emergency room and discover this labor isn’t really cheap. Getting off the current globalism freight train to the bottom means we gotta crack some eggs. Wait til we crack some Chinese eggs. And you are welcome!
The PHX e-roon is why the ACA was initiated. We pay no matter what, might as well get the “insurance rate”
Trump’s already starting to back off of this proposal because Rs and Ds alike are throwing fits. Maybe he’ll eventually learn to be circumspect.
Justhefacts;
My wife works with a man at the local Hospital. His 24 year old son was executed (shot in the back of the head) by an illegal alien and left to die on a dark desert road here in SoUtah.
I’ll ask him how he feels about paying a bit more for goods from Mexico as a result of getting “his” wall built and get back to you with his answer.
ahhhh…. my old screen name.
Mexican made Fords–get em now, before the tariff and the angry Mexicans dont remember to tighten your calipers.
I can live without avocados.
First they came for your avocados…. and I did not speak out.
Eh brah, Don’t touch my jalapenos!
I can’t.
But seriously if I can’t wear my sombrero, I will be on the streek.
I can live on avacadoes grown in San Diego County.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-26/new-home-sales-collapse-december-trump-rate-surge-hits
New Home Sales Collapse In December As Trump Rate Surge Hits
“Developers Discuss Downtown San Diego’s Evolution And Future Potential”. Looks like the San Diego millenials are the key solution to all the problems:
http://tinyurl.com/j6ks6pf
Kovtun asked the panelists what their vision of downtown San Diego is in 20 years. “I think we saw San Diego 1.0 in the last cycle — the ballpark, Petco. We already had a great tourism industry, but hotels, amenities and Horton Plaza all came together,” Winkenhofer said. “I think we’re at 2.0 now. We’re seeing multifamily that meets a necessary demographic, fantastic new hospitality projects and an improving retail environment.”
Looking ahead 20 years is downtown San Diego 3.0, he said. “I think San Diego needs to cultivate industries where it already has an advantage — biotech, clean tech, defense,” he said, emphasizing the city should focus on incubating an industry, not worry about luring Fortune 500 companies downtown.
Green thinks San Diego can do both. “San Diego has all the makings of a world-class city,” he said. “And I hope we’ll be our own best cheerleaders. It seems there’s so many people in the world that would love to live in a place like this, work in a place like this.”
Victim of its own success - too many people, too much traffic, and its sadly the nicest cabin on the titanic that is Clownifornia. I used to think it was the greatest, but now whenever I go back I pity the fools still there.
house slaves
the weather can only get you so far here.Time for a reality check.
Sounds like you go back to Bakersfield or Anaheim.
Try Napa and Santa Barbara. It’s a big state.
It’s a small minded state.
Billions In Commercial Mortgages From 2007 Lending Boom To Mature This Year
http://tinyurl.com/z5xn9u2
There are billions in commercial mortgages set to mature this year that were left over from the 2007 lending boom.
The $90B in debt will expose some weakness in the commercial property market as these loans mature, making it harder for landlords to pay off old loans by taking out new debt, Bloomberg reports. Lenders today are more strict than they were in 2007 and experts forecast higher delinquency rates over the course of 2017, expecting the delinquency rate for commercial mortgages marketed as bonds to rise at least 2.4%.
Though the property market is booming, there are a greater deal of loans backed by commercial properties that are in trouble than most people are aware of, New York finance firm R3 Funding founder Ray Potter told Bloomberg. “We’re not going to see a huge crash, but there will be more losses than people are expecting,” he added.
http://www.housingwire.com/articles/39026-blackstones-invitation-homes-prepares-15-billion-ipo
slumlords do ipo?
The crackdown on bribery in China is hitting high-end luxury goods makers.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/26/swiss-watch-sales-fall-10-per-cent-china-corruption-crackdown
China needs to crash and crash hard… then crash some more.
If it happens I expect it to be their great depression…lots of people going back to the farm until worldwide demand for their products picks up again. Just hope they don’t use their factories to get everybody employed again the way we did in the early 40s.
NA GA HA
They will build more cities in the middle of the ocean/desert.
And they can call it CCC. Doesn’t mean there still won’t be a depression. But yes, it appears that everyone with a central bank has learned that anything is better than deflation, if they can control it at all.
it appears that everyone with a central bank has learned that anything is better than deflation, if they can control it at all.
And yet they fail to realize that the deflationary winds are merely the other side of the inflationary boom/bubble that they caused in the first place.
Despite all the red flags, Chinese speculators continue to pile into the housing and land bubbles.
http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/2065687/hang-lung-properties-2016-core-profit-45pc-hk63bn
I think everyone involved in this will end up losing all their money.
http://www.geekwire.com/2017/lendingrobot-launches-hedge-fund-uses-blockchain-machine-learning-no-human-intervention/
“Until now, the business of Seattle-based LendingRobot has been focused on helping manage investments in so-called peer-to-peer loans. In such loans, would-be borrowers too risky for banks seek loans from individuals. Companies including Lending Club and Prosper grade loan applications by risk and make them available to individual investors, most of whom spread their risk by investing small amounts in many individual loans.”
“The investment is attractive, as it can yield 8-10 percent interest paid monthly. But managing the choice of those multiple loans, and investing, re-investing and collecting interest, can get complex and boring, which is why LendingRobot has automated those tasks, taking a fee for its services.”
“Now, LendingRobot is launching an investment vehicle of its own. Called LendingRobot Series, the hedge fund is billed as an alternative to traditional fixed-income investments. It, too, invests minute amounts in hundreds of individual, person-to-person loans, but it also includes real estate loans.”
From another related article:
https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2017/01/95247-lendingrobot-launches-robo-hedge-fund-online-lending-wanted-long-time/
“LendingRobot started with just two lending platforms: Lending Club and Prosper. They later added Funding Circle – available to accredited investors only. Today they are adding LendingHome to their portfolio of their assets.”
“LendingHome is one of the fastest growing online lenders having quickly zoomed ahead of many other online lenders. LendingHome topped $1 billion in mortgage-based loans last month claiming the title of the fastest growing marketplace lender.”
Shark loans without any teeth.
It seems like we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel, again. They restricted the big-banks but now there is this proliferation of ’shadow banks’ and other schemes targeting the lower/lowest quality. I think part of the reason has been the search for yield, even if it is high risk.
Yup - too much free money, chasing too few good ideas!
What will be the symbol of Dot Bomb 2.0? It was the pets.com sock puppet the last time (really wish I had bought one of those while you could still get one).
I live near ground zero for these Stupid Seattle Startups, and it maddens me to see so many not very smart people making so much money. Most of them don’t know which end of a screwdriver to pick up. Oh, and you can guess which president they didn’t vote for!
Great song from the man made Global cooling years
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFDP4_X7VgY
Calabasas, CA Housing Prices Crater 22% YoY As Housing Demand Plummets To 30 Year Low
http://www.movoto.com/calabasas-ca/market-trends/
What’s all the hubbub about Antarctica? John Kerry, Buzz Aldrin, pyramids, Ark of Gabriel (I have no idea wtf that even is), Nazis, jeebus.
This is one weird planet for sure. All I know is, there’s a great disturbance in the force.
That’s where the found the aliens. The aliens from outer space.
Speaking of aliens, Podesta was supposedly into it, per the wikileaks, and apparently he was constantly getting asked by conspiracy-theorists over the years to reveal the truth. One of the speculations of “who hacked Podesta’s emails” was not that it was the Russians, but actually plain-ole American UFO nuts trying to discover if Podesta knew anything, and then they turned over the whole pile to wikileaks. It wouldn’t surprise me if that was what really happened.
You don’t say? Lol, it was so weird, because I found this old paperback called “Area 51″ at a garage sale about a month or so ago and read it. Mildly entertaining fiction about Egypt and Antarctica and old Nazi scientists and flying saucers. I re-donated it when I finished it. And then I caught these random comments on ZH about John Kerry and Antarctica and put the search terms into the old google and jeebus, the stuff that popped up was much like what I read in the book, lol. In fact, that was my reaction: I already read this stuff, minus John Kerry and the Popes (Francis and Kyril) and Buzz Aldrin.
As to the Podesta stuff, that’s exactly what I heard in a Wayne Madsen interview. It was some of Assange’s fellow UFO hackers looking for the UFO holy grail.
Funny, in the past couple days they have been accusing NASA of cutting off their live video feed from the ISS, a couple of times, because of alien ships flying past. Hehe. I admit, I love those nuts.
I do believe in aliens. It’s just they are very, very, very, very far away.
Probably cut the video when they were doing scientific studies of bodily emissions in a zero-gravity situation, heh heh heh.
Cheaper than a 20% tax on imports from MX.
JUST DONT EVER HIRE ILLEGALS. DONT RENT TO THEM EITHER. YOUR NEIGHBOR IS SCREWING YOU WITH THEIR CHEAP LABOR AND GREED.
You really should hold the natty ices down to 10 or less a night. Tennis camp is gonna be a blur tomorrow.
And he was demoted to ballboy this morning.
“Don’t ever hire illegals or rent to them” - that is unrealistic, because people are greedy.
For years I’ve been preaching “don’t ever buy Chinese”, but did anybody listen? Nope.
what if you could rat them out for half of the fine? greed meet greed
Power vested in me, I demote Big Lee to Small Lee.
–DJT
I suggest Bear Lee.
my debt slave score was up 20 points this month cause I paid down some debt. I have to keep it > 600 to pull anymore equity.
The housing market claims another victim.
RIP Butch!
In 2011, Trucks had to sell his prized home in Palm Beach for $2 million when it was possibly worth twice as much to pay off a $800,000 mortgage that a bank was trying to foreclose on.
In 2014, Trucks and his wife spent $500,000 on the condo where he shot himself.
And he was hounded by the IRS”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4157864/Allman-Brothers-drummer-Butch-Trucks-shot-head.html#ixzz4WvSRc9qf
RIP Butch Trucks.
Another proud moment for Realtors and the IRS.
His suicide is unfortunate, but it is not the fault of realtors or the IRS.
Sounds like it was more the bottle than Realtors or IRS agents that led to his early demise. And he outlived many of his peers at the top ranks of rock drummers by decades, as longevity and rock drummer celebrity status don’t mix well.
Turns out our open borders oligarchs are big fans of walls when they keep the peasants off their private estates.
http://www.businessinsider.com/hawaiians-to-march-in-protest-against-mark-zuckerbergs-land-grab-lawsuits-2017-1
Kind of off-topic, but there was the oil/gas pipelines conversation the other day. Today, there was a big diesel pipeline spill, 140,000 gallons spilled.
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/01/26/511636325/its-a-big-one-iowa-pipeline-leaks-nearly-140-000-gallons-of-diesel
”
The NPR article has a link to another site that shows a map of all the spills since 2010 and fatality counts. It is interesting. There’s been a lot of spills.
Trump building more pipelines is great and all, but it doesn’t look like we have a very good track record of keeping our existing pipelines from spilling all the time. I don’t know what the right answer is, higher fines? more or less regulations? In any case, it kinda sucks.
But I’ll take a pipeline any day any time over an oil train. The risk to both people and the environment is orders-of-magnitude higher with the oil trains.
http://www.realtytoday.com/articles/74364/20160119/judy-garland-s-old-dakota-home-now-designer-pad-asks.htm
The Bikoff family has listed on the market the three-bedroom, three-bathroom property for $16.7 million, with Douglas Elliman broker Katherine Gauthier as the agent, who is skeptical about the Garland claims. The apartment was purchased in 2010 by Sasha’s mother for $13 million from Roy Welland and Christal Henner, who are both champion bridge players.
Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! The Great Oz has spoken!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2017/jan/26/steve-bell-uk-us-theresa-may-donald-trump-cartoon
Rude but made me chuckle; but I’ve long been a cynic..