The Inescapable Conclusion
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Uncertainty around the election spooked wealthy home buyers in the fourth quarter, continuing 2016’s slowdown in luxury real estate, according to several new reports. Sales in the Hamptons, Aspen and Los Angeles fell by double-digit percentages in the fourth quarter, as the supply of unsold homes grew and prices came under pressure, according to market reports Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants. In the Hamptons, the high end of the market was especially weak, bringing the average sale price down 30 percent, to $1.7 million. The median price fell 7 percent, to $925,000.”
“The average sale price for the Hamptons’ luxury market — the top 10 percent of sales by price — fell 43 percent to $7.06 million. Meanwhile, inventory surged 21 percent. In Aspen, the number of sales fell 25 percent, and the average sale price dropped to $3.75 million — an 11 percent decline. Like most big markets over the past year, the top of the market suffered most, with the average price for luxury homes there sliding 24 percent. The median price also tumbled, falling 29 percent.”
“With the exception of the Danbury area, southwestern Connecticut’s high-end and luxury markets did not see much activity in the fourth quarter of 2016, a trend that some real estate agents say could continue into 2017. ‘The abundance of inventory in the higher-end communities of the lower county remains a challenge,’ William Pitt Sotheby’s International Realty’s report stated. ‘Since more inventory in the luxury sector will inevitably come to the market out of many a homeowner’s need to sell, we expect the downward pressure on prices to continue well into 2017.’”
“Plagued by swelling inventory and sagging sales, Miami-Dade County’s supply of luxury condos – defined as those priced at more than $1 million – stood at 2,549 by the end of 2016, according to EWM Realty International. At today’s sales pace, it would take 57.9 months to sell them all, a 69% surge over the months of supply recorded at the end of 2015. That’s by far the highest backlog since the end of 2008, when the end of a building boom collided with the recession, briefly sending the supply in that category to a dizzying 80 months.”
“The inescapable conclusion, says Ron Shuffield, EWM’s president: Prices for luxury properties have to come down. ‘In the short term the only fix is to lower prices to be in line with their expectations, because right now there’s more supply than demand,’ he said.”
“For years, the Bay Area’s mismatch between supply and demand in housing has been an increasingly challenging problem. But as thousands of new units come online in 2017, the dynamics of the region’s housing market may be shifting slightly. Currently, San Francisco is experiencing the biggest apartment building boom in more than 75 years. Thousands of new apartments and condos are coming online in the Bay Area in 2017.”
“The increased supply is ‘definitely impacting rents,’ according to Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst for Paragon Real Estate Group. Specifically, he’s seen a 5 to 10 percent drop since the peak of the market in 2015. ‘How much further they’ll fall, I don’t know,’ Carlisle says. ‘But I’ve heard from rental agents that in the past few years through 2015, people were lined up waving cash in the air to get apartments. But now we’re seeing some apartments stay vacant for months.’”
“The region has seen condo prices dip in 2016, in particular in areas where big projects are being built, according to Carlisle. ‘At the same time that we’re seeing greater supply, demand has started to cool down,’ he said. ‘As a result, (condo) prices have come down 2 to 5 percent since the end of 2015.’”
“More signs that Dallas-Fort Worth’s high-priced home market may be running out of steam: Homebuilders are shifting gears to build more affordable houses and holding back on pricey ones. ‘We continue to see a slowing of demand in the price ranges above $400,000,’ housing analyst Metrostudy reports in a new study. ‘With every quarter, demand for new homes above $400,000 wanes.’”
“A mismatch between what builders are offering and what customers want to pay is affecting the market, Metrostudy analysts say. Paige Shipp of Metrostudy said she recently looked at the price of new houses in the booming Collin County town of Celina. In 2013, a 3,000-square-foot house in Celina cost an average of about $251,000. ‘Today, that same house would cost you $389,000,’ she said. ‘It’s amazing how prices have gone up.’”
“A petition calling for a Calliope workers camp to be shut down was launched at the weekend. The Observer reported in July that estate agent Alicia Williams was also calling for its closure. ‘There is just no need for those camps anymore, now the construction is over and the workers are here for maintenance,’ Ms Williams said. ‘There is a complete oversupply of houses and from the community point of view they should be putting money back into our local economy. A lot of people out there are in financial stress and don’t know what to do.’”
“Housing sales volumes in Namibia have dipped considerably in a market that has enjoyed one of the world’s fastest-growing property prices for years. ‘The more affluent Angolans bought houses in the most expensive suburbs like Ludwigsdorf, Klein Windhoek and Auasblick, where house prices can reach up to N$20m (US$1.5m). We experienced instances where youngsters brought in their full inheritance from deceased parents and spent all on fancy houses.’ said Lourette Liebenberg – the principal consultant at real estate agency Rightmove Properties.”
“Dr Roman Grynberg, a professor of economics at the University of Namibia, said this fall in demand is mostly being felt in the middle to top end of the housing market. ‘Prices have now started to fall. I mean, I bought the house I’m living in almost two years ago – it would be worth at least 10% less than what I paid for it,’ he estimated.”
“In the Wall Street Journal article ‘Three Economists Walk into a Bar,’ James Mackintosh discusses the shortcomings of modern day economists. Mackintosh writes, ‘This is where the biggest difference from meteorology comes in: Weather forecasts don’t change the weather, but economic forecasts can change the economy.’ When Janet Yellen hints that the Fed is going to raise rates during the next FOMC meeting, the market reacts.”
“At this point, either the Fed cannot see the bubbles coming, or it’s allowing them to occur intentionally. The Peter Schmidt article, ‘Do Central Bankers Know a Bubble When They See One?’ discusses how the Fed misuses their capabilities and ultimately breaches its intended purpose. Schmidt writes, ‘Senior Fed officials taking positions diametrically opposed to positions Alan Greenspan claimed formed the basis for the Fed’s policy toward bubbles, namely, allowing bubbles to burst and dealing with the consequences later.’”
“This means that the Fed aims to be incredibly shortsighted. It chooses to make the economy look good at the moment and deal with the consequences after the fact. The issue is that the American people are the ones who shoulder those consequences, not the Board of Governors. The greatest piece of advice comes from within the Fed itself. The Fed needs to get their fingers out of the market.”
“‘This is where the biggest difference from meteorology comes in: Weather forecasts don’t change the weather, but economic forecasts can change the economy.’ When Janet Yellen hints that the Fed is going to raise rates during the next FOMC meeting, the market reacts.”
Besides the inability to create weather, the other key difference between a meteorologist and an economist is that any meteorologist who failed to notice a tornado forming right outside his window would be fired, in contrast to a bubble-blind economist, who would qualify for a term on the FOMC.
how many d@m years has she been blowing smoke? This is ridiculous but wall street hangs on her every word.
How many trillions of excess reserves are there? Basically when they talk about raising the fed funds rate they are talking about how much interest they will pay on the reserves.
How much longer can the central banks around the world keep buying bonds to keep prices high and yields down? They are the major buyers cause no one else wants the low yield when stocks are going up 10% / annum.
If they lose control of longer term interest rates its game over.
What could possibly result in loss of central bank control? The rise of populist politicians, perhaps?
Nah… Goldman Sachs has it all contained.
Goldman Sachs has it all contained ??
Among the biggest contributors to the rise in the Dow has been Goldman Sachs. The bank has seen its stock price rise 30 percent since the election….
They have Trump contained thats for sure….Drain the swamp my ass….
When should we buy Exxon stock?
You should have bought Exxon two years ago, when the price of oil cratered.
Exxon stock today $ 85.51
2 yrs ago - $88
$72.13 low was aug 2015
hmmmmm
Yes, about the time I was predicting a rebound in oil prices. LOL. Did not make it to $100 a barrel but neither did we go anywhere near the around $10 a barrel that some like HA were predicting either but he conveniently forgets that prediction.
Exxon is down substantially from its highs and you have left that out.
Exxon’s 52 week high is $95.55. Good trade if you came in around August 2015 and sold at the top plus it paid a high dividend. I still preferred the drillers and BHI made me tons both in the shares and the call options I wrote from time to time when I thought it was making a short term top.
https://elifesmeaning.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/donkey-in-hole.jpg
Mark Hanson @MrMarkHanson 18h18 hours ago
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HIGH-END HOUSING DUMP: As I have been tracking for over a year, upper middle to high end pain is extreme.
Will the damage be limited to the high end, or will it trickle down?
I think it will be confined to housing which is in the high six figures and higher. Of course, in some areas of the country that is a lot of the housing. Of course, in those areas the impact will slow the country considerably. Much of the blue areas growth the last five years was tied to housing appreciation, the red areas did not similarly enter back into bubble territory. Thus, over the next few years economic growth will be stronger in the areas that voted for Trump.
If someone can sell their life owned bubble-shack for like $600K then they can move up to a $900K house just by taking a mortgage that is the same size as the person who paid $600K.
Where I live $500K is pretty much the norm. Gonna need to find a higher paying job, but they’re out here.
Townhouse near me, bought for $650K in 2008, bank sold for $475K I think a few days ago. Waited till market peak. Bank was asking $525K, nearby comps 2 years ago $475K and then a few months ago $560K or so. Neighbor paid $395K short sale for his prob around 2012 (I’m only comparing end units that are the same.) At $395K I wouldn’t be against it if end unit and depending on taxes and stuff.
I always find the Namibia bubble stories interesting “….where house prices can reach up to N$20m (US$1.5m).”
U$1.50/SM = 14 cents/sq. foot. Thus a 1,500 sq. ft. house cost $210!
All real estate is local!
‘our survey conducted during October 2014 indicated to us that the average wage in Namibia is N$6 626 per month. This is gross income, meaning income before deductions.’
https://www.newera.com.na/2015/06/01/average-incomes-namibians/
October 2014 was before the recession.
OK Jingle, step away from the calculator.
The “m” is “million”, not “per square meter”.
House prices US$1,000,000.
More like get some new glasses!
Would have liked to see more pictures of the different types of homes there and what $US 1M gets you. Interesting that the (((usual suspects))) are there too, as indicated by the local economist/entrails interpreter interviewed. They certainly get around, dont they?
OMG, thanks Blue. That makes even less sense (cents), but you are correct! I am going to explore this more on Saturday!
OMG, you are right. That makes no sense (cents). I guess Namibia is a nice place!
I guess Namibia is a nice place!
Everyone wants to move there!!
Interesting that some of the purchasers are coming from Angola, which is an extraordinarily corrupt nation.
“In 2015, a video report by Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times stated that despite Angola’s extraordinary oil wealth, the systematic confiscation of that wealth by members of a “spectacularly corrupt” elite with lavish lifestyles was keeping people in grinding poverty, depriving children of proper education and health care, and causing the world’s highest child-mortality rate.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Angola
‘I’ve heard from rental agents that in the past few years through 2015, people were lined up waving cash in the air to get apartments. But now we’re seeing some apartments stay vacant for months’
People who say these apartments have always had incentives to fill up are wrong.
I lived there until recently and it was crazy. People would literally show up to apt open houses with their credit reports in hand and try to sway the landlord with cash.
‘We experienced instances where youngsters brought in their full inheritance from deceased parents and spent all on fancy houses….‘Prices have now started to fall. I mean, I bought the house I’m living in almost two years ago – it would be worth at least 10% less than what I paid for it’
Now stack on depreciation of $3/sqft per year.
If they understood construction costs($55/sqft lot, labor, materials and profit), they wouldn’t have paid multiples of that for a run down 20 yearold house loaded full of el cheapo bling.
Nobody cares about construction costs except in those areas where one can actually build a house.
In a city, there’s no choice between buying vs. building an apartment. Someone else builds, you buy - at prices that the market will bear. The price has no relationship whatsoever to construction costs. Unfortunately.
Incorrect.
The price is never based on some vague notion that you assign it. A houses price is founded on input costs. Lot, labor, materials and profit. And the reality is those input costs don’t exceed $50-55/sq ft, irrespective of location.
And they depreciate rapidly.
Only if your workers (like you) are worth $12 an hr. Even then, $50 a sqr ft to build out is a fantasy.
HA is in Ohio raising a barn with his brothers for $50 psft
We build all over the country for that and less my friend all year long and much more than houses.
Danke Kraeder is HA! HA, HA, HA, changing his name is so funny.
His schtick hasn’t changed a beat, but I gotta say that his new handle is pretty darn entertaining.
When you’ve got a debt-positioned interest in an alternate reality, everything will look like a schtick to you.
You’re barking up the wrong tree with that comment; I haven’t held any debt since Jan 2003—fourteen years and counting!
Nope
You are so deranged.
I don’t own a house—haven’t since selling the last one in Jan 2003 when I thought there was already a bubble, and deciding to wait it out. I had no other debt at the time, and haven’t taken out any since.
So, “Nope”? You speak of things you do not know, which is not the sign of a wise person.
Just ignore him. This is one of his schticks that he repeats all the time. His name changes more often than his memes. (which is why people are always calling him names like “HA” or “RAL”)
I see.
WORD!
‘Danke Kraeder’? - Really, HA?
Perhaps some therapy is in order for you too my good friend.
10% stupido inheritance tax in year one…Ouch!
See that Joshua Tree that Ben posted….Thats what the Mexican President is going to shove up Trumps Rectum…Common Mr. Bully/Bullchit…The President of Mexico “Called your bluff”…What-Cha-Gonna-Do Bad boy ??
Get some therapy for your enragement my good friend. It’s going to be a hellish 8 years for you if you don’t.
enragement ??
I’m laughing you idiot…
A very hellish 8 years indeed.
I got 5 bucks that says Mexico is gonna lose on this one.
Yes, history has shown that it is the country that has the large trade deficit that is in the better position in a trade war. Essentially our weakness is our strength. This is true for a trade was with China also. One can argue that no one “wins” in a trade war, that is open to debate. However, it is clear that the biggest loser will be the country that was running a large trade surplus with another country and then loses access to that market.
Yes, history has shown that it is the country that has the large trade deficit that is in the better position in a trade war
Do you have some examples from history?
biggest loser will be the country that was running a large trade surplus with another country and then loses access to that market ??
I suggest you look at the trading partners that Mexico has…40 in all…Take a look at the numbers…Yes, losing trade with the US would hurt them but it will hurt us just as much if not more…Then Just wait until those laid-off supply chain employees go to their Republican Senator…
Some Americans will benefit and some will suffer. It’s a matter of opinion whether the net result will be good for the country.
MM, how about how Ronald Reagan was able to force the Japanese to accept restrictions on their auto exports and actually move factories to the US in the 1980’s. In the end the Japanese were not able to engage in serious retaliation since they needed the market.
With falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels comes more jobs and an accelerating economy. What laid-off workers?
Show me the numbers, you are citing 40 partners but break down the imports that the other countries take compared to us. Mexico’s economy collapses without us, the same is not true for us.
That wasn’t exactly a trade war. As you say, Japan didn’t put up a fight.
Not to harp again on Russia, but it really is useful to see what happened to others who already tried some of the policies that one suggests.
Case in point - Russia imports pretty much everything and exports oil and natural resources. In 2014 Putin, in order to “punish” the E.U. for sanctions, announced anti-sanctions - he prohibited the imports of food and many other different things.
It was heralded as a deeply protectionist move that would lead to a renaissance of Russian manufacturing and food production.
What happened? Prices went up, a lot. Quality of food etc. plummeted, a lot (some of it is downright dangerous). Also, some well-connected people became even richer, as they found ways to bring forbidden imports into the country bypassing the border control (think Al Capone during Prohibition).
Is there a renaissance of Russian manufacturing and food production, at least? Nope. Long-term investors are not investing, because they have no guarantee that these protective measures will not be canceled as abruptly as they were introduced. Meanwhile, there’s a lot of counterfeit “made in Russia and/or other allowed country” (no, not really) foodstuffs, and there’s a lot of poor quality crap which now costs more than higher quality stuff that’s no longer available. It’s no picnic for consumers.
I read that Switzerland did very well exporting food because it didn’t participate in the sanctions against Russia.
MM, it may not have been much of a trade war but it had all the rhetoric that is coming out of both Mexico and China today, in the end the Japanese looked at the lopsided numbers and had to capitulate. You asked for example and I gave it to you. You could not have received an example closer to the present reality. Obama failed to take advantage of the low hanging fruit, Trump will not.
I think that far from supporting your view, it supports mine. Russia has substituted for the goods and Europe has lost a market for its goods. It may be no picnic for consumers and the quality needs to improve but it did not bring the economic ruin of Russia that was anticipated but it sure hurt Europe’s growth. However, the sanctions were not the result of a trade war but due to the Ukraine situation so economics were ignored on both sides. That did create a lose/lose situation.
Europe is doing just fine - the market adjusted, as Europe found other markets for its food, and it continues to export some of it food into Russia through back channel intermediaries (through Belorussia and Central Asian countries). Europe’s market grew. Russia’s shrank.
Consumers in Russia are suffering. The quality is poor, and the prices are high - leading to a dramatic fall in the discretionary spending, exacerbating the recession.
Didn’t AlbuquerqueD say the other day that that would be his last post here for a while?
The rise of populists in Europe is due to how poorly Europe is doing, you lose credibility when you say things like Europe is doing well.
I’m talking specifically about the sectors that were initially hurt by anti-sanctions - they adjusted and are doing well. Unlike Russia.
“Not to harp again on Russia”
We have the best harpies, don’t we folks?
Some leaders in Europe do not agree with you NYchk:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hungary-says-russia-sanctions-fruitless-151104240.html
There’s a bunch of right-wing politicians in Europe who are completely in Putin’s pocket. They are working diligently to lift the sanctions. That’s nothing new.
By the way, about Hungary - I didn’t know this, but apparently they have a situation similar to ours. Their populist leader is taking a country in a nationalistic authoritarian direction (with full support of Russia).
A guy I know is from Hungary, and after the elections he was very upset with Trump’s victory, saying that “we already tried it in Hungary, and it’s a complete disaster, freedoms curtailed, corruption rising through the roof, people fleeing”.
Apparently, the current leader of Hungary is a huge fan of Mr. Putin, and emulates his policies. Including runaway corruption.
Aaaah, calling me the best. Palmy, I love you too.
And it was sincerely meant, too.
A good part of Eastern Europe is against the sanctions. Europe is suffering meanwhile they are more dependent than ever on Russian natural gas this winter. Russia and China have increased trade tremendously and Russia’s economy is back to growing.
You asked for example and I gave it to you. You could not have received an example closer to the present reality.
I asked for an example of a trade war. We still don’t know what Trump will do. It may be a trade war. Krugman’s column today was about Reagan. Policies early in his term drove up the value of the dollar, which hammered American manufacturing. Compelling the Japanese to reduce their exports was necessary to mitigate that.
What is a trade war but a dispute over trade with the beginning of tit for tat sanctions, we had that. What you are saying is the first Gulf War wasn’t really a war since we won it so decisively with few losses sorry a war is a war even if it is one sided.
Reagan’s policies did not have as much to do with the early rise in the dollar as Volcker’s rise in interest rates which always cause a currency go up. Then, his successful tax cuts which did indeed cause economic growth which will also cause a currency to rise. Yes, at that point the strength of the dollar did become a problem. Try reading someone besides Krugman, it you might have a more balanced view on the Reagan years. I remember the Nation magazine almost gleeful that Reagan won the election because it was sure he would fail because no one could fight stagflation. In one sense it was right, it is far harder to fight stagflation than what Obama faced. Fighting a recession in a low inflation environment can be done by a child, just push the print money button and run high deficits, which is exactly what Obama did. However, you leave the large debt for the next president to deal with.
You forgot about Reagan’s huge deficits, which helped push up interest rates, which pushed up the values of the dollar. That was back in the days before the global savings glut.
In 1986 a new Honda Civic was $6,000. By 1989 it was $9,000.
http://www.macrotrends.net/2550/dollar-yen-exchange-rate-historical-chart
Obama is his eight years ran up a debt almost as all the other presidents combined that Includes Reagan and both of the Bush globalists. Obama is number one is the debt department but you have forgot that. Reagan conquered inflation, conquered the Soviet Union, put social security on a firm footing for decades and restored economic growth. Obama just achieved around 2% growth and emptied the social security disability fund so unemployment could drop with minimal job creation.
I think this is a balanced article on the impact of sanctions, I could cite Russian articles but I know you would dismiss those. It shows that the Russians have made considerable progress on substitutions but a lot still needs to be done:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2016/04/19/nearly-two-years-into-sanctions-can-russia-live-without-europe/#46ade0f2211e
Reagans deficits pushed up interest rates and the dollar? Inflation was double digits in the late 70s and coupled with dollar weakness, years before Reagan got elected. Ever hear of Volker? Damn you libtards are a sad bunch of fools.
At the time there wasn’t much controversy about the deficits and the dollar. It’s no surprise that Reagan’s fans will try to rewrite history, hoping that memories have faded.
Obama is number one is the debt department but you have forgot that.
No, I didn’t forget that. It’s not relevant to the 1980s.
The voluntary export restriction started right at the beginning of Reagan’s term, when the yen was worth
less than half a penny.
When the automobile industry in the United States was threatened by the popularity of cheaper more fuel efficient Japanese cars, a 1981 voluntary restraint agreement limited the Japanese to exporting 1.68 million cars to the U.S. annually as stipulated by U.S Government.[2] This quota was originally intended to expire after three years, in April 1984. However, with a growing deficit in trade with Japan, and under pressure from domestic manufacturers, the US government extended the quotas for an additional year.[3] The cap was raised to 1.85 million cars for this additional year, then to 2.3 million for 1985. The voluntary restraint was removed in 1994.[4]
The Japanese automobile industry responded by establishing assembly plants or “transplants” in the United States (primarily in the Southern U.S. states where right-to-work laws exist as opposed to the Rust Belt states with established labor unions) to produce mass market vehicles. Some Japanese manufacturers who had their transplant assembly factories in the Rust Belt e.g. Mazda, Mitsubishi had to have a joint venture with a Big Three manufacturer (Chrysler/Mitsubishi which became Diamond Star Motors, Ford/Mazda that evolved into AutoAlliance International). GM established NUMMI which was initially a joint venture with Toyota which later expanded to include a Canadian subsidiary (CAMI)) - a GM/Suzuki which were consolidated that evolved into the Geo division in the U.S. (its Canadian counterparts Passport and Asuna were short lived - Isuzu automobiles manufactured during this era were sold as captive imports). The Japanese Big Three (Honda, Toyota, and Nissan) also began exporting bigger, more expensive cars (soon under their newly formed luxury brands like Acura, Lexus, and Infiniti) in order to make more money from a limited number of cars.
The net result of all of this was a huge migration of auto jobs from the Midwest to the South. That was probably the time when term Rust Belt was coined.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voluntary_export_restraints#1980_Automobile_VER
But it is relevant to Obama’s place in history, he destroyed his party almost as effectively as Carter which is what I thought he would do when he first was elected.
It’s too early to say what Obama’s place in history will be.
Yes but you have a good guess when you look at the Congress he had when he started: 60 U.S. Senators and an overwhelming majority and in the U.S. House and where we stand now. Those are not the numbers of a successful president.
My point is that historians may not care about those things 50 or 100 years from now.
I got 5 bucks that says Mexico is gonna lose on this one ??
Lets define lose Ben and I am in on your $5.00 bet…I say, no Tariff on Mexican imports…Maybe marginal changes to NAFTA so Trump can save face…
Don’t forget that Mexico is also exporting their poor and their criminals. If Trump cuts that off and/or taxes remittances, Mexico will lose regardless of what happens with trade.
exporting their poor and their criminals
Don’t disparage Dave’s workers. That’s how he makes his money…paying very little for their hard work.
Yeah, Housing Analyst relies upon those cheap immigrant laborers to build his OSB shacks for him. That’s the only way that he can keep to those fantasy numbers he keeps posting.
Remember the Alamo?
Mekhiko will win.
What if Mex teams up with China and Russia.
nationalization??
let the games begin
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-economy-slows-to-19-in-4th-quarter-gdp-shows-2017-01-27
The last time we had 3% growth was under W, and the trade deficit is the major blame for it. Usually, the deeper the recession, the stronger the recovery, while the recovery in the U.S. started in June 2009 prior to Obama doing anything, his policies contributed to a recovery so poor no one noticed it and his economy could not achieve 3% growth. Clearly we need a new direction and the election was won due to that reality.
“What if Mex teams up with China and Russia.”
I think that’s a real threat that no one is talking about, yet.
At least Russian politicians already talked about it, threatening that “perhaps America will not be so arrogant if Mexican informal troops of unidentified concerned citizens started pouring into California and Texas to take back their stolen land from yankees”.
For some reason no one here wonders, what would happen if Russia decided to sponsor a little hybrid border war with the U.S. via “separatist insurgency”, similar to how it instigated a little hybrid war with Ukraine?
Making an enemy out of our closest neighbor is not a smart move. Plenty of real enemies would just LOVE it, and use it to their advantage.
“Making an enemy out of our closest neighbor…”
It’s a lot like an abusive domestic relationship. In order to stay healthy, you need to establish some boundaries.
“What if Mex teams up with China and Russia.”
Yeah, like maybe all the illegals that Trump kicks out can live in those ghost cities in China? Mexico doesnt seem to want them - maybe they’ll posse up and MMGFO - Make Mexico Great For Once.
Still not tired of winning!
Great opinion piece, about the wall and the border tax:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/op-ed-why-outrage-over-174841586.html
“I got 5 bucks that says Mexico is gonna lose on this one.”
Yup. Isn’t it obvious? Common sense really isn’t that common I guess.
Yesterday’s news seemed to spend quite a bit of time analyzing which leader canceled the meeting. Did the Mexican guy cancel first, or did Trump’s tweet ask the Mexican to cancel, thus making Trump first? To me it was a moot point, but I guess it’s important to world leaders to save face, or something like that. And some outlets are still drama-queening on how Trump got fewer attendants at his Inauguration than Obama did.
I get the distinct impression that the news media are deliberately continuing such memes in the hopes of riling up Trump into making an embarrassing tweet that he can’t easily walk back.
still drama-queening on how ??
The Chief tweeter is the real drama queen still stomping his little feet about the voter fraud in California & New York…
And some outlets are still drama-queening on how Trump got fewer attendants at his Inauguration than Obama did.
That’s because Trump kept talking about it for days.
“See that Joshua Tree that Ben posted….Thats what the Mexican President is going to shove up Trumps Rectum”
That must be why the Peso is steadily losing value to Uncle Buck.
It’s illuminating to read the Mexican news media online. They are losing their minds down there. They are in a full blown panic about having automobile factories moving back to the US. Without automobile exports, Mexico runs a trade deficit with the US. And with trade deficits the Peso will be pummeled.
But the weaker peso will make Mexican workers even cheaper.
Maybe then Mexico can compete with China, the Chinese textile billionaires are looking for places with cheap unskilled labor since China is neither cheap nor unskilled anymore.
But the weaker peso will make Mexican workers even cheaper.
Maybe. But it will cause other problems, such as capital flight. This is what has happened every single time the Peso quickly lost value. Mexicans remember, and they are scared.
What inheritance? I don’t watch much television but I was near a TV yesterday where a commercial was pitching the idea of taking out “equity” from your life insurance policy.
Judging by the age of the actors used to sell the idea I’d say that this was being sold to the 65+ age group.
Those seniors probably have old houses that are not worth much due to lack of maintenance. They probably have little other savings as well. They’re not the sort of people who leave big estates to their kids.
They are talking about inheritances in Namibia.
Which I’m still trying to wrap my head around. It seems that all we’ve heard about Africa is that they are poor/sick/starving/need my money. The idea of ANYone having money leftover to leave to children is still difficult to comprehend.
The local elites do, but they are, as in any 3rd world sh!thole, a microscopic minority.
‘A mismatch between what builders are offering and what customers want to pay is affecting the market, Metrostudy analysts say. Paige Shipp of Metrostudy said she recently looked at the price of new houses in the booming Collin County town of Celina. In 2013, a 3,000-square-foot house in Celina cost an average of about $251,000. ‘Today, that same house would cost you $389,000,’ she said. ‘It’s amazing how prices have gone up.’
It is amazing Paige, kinda like a big thunderstorm or something. Except this doesn’t dissipate and blow over.
‘The average sale price for the Hamptons’ luxury market — the top 10 percent of sales by price — fell 43 percent to $7.06 million. Meanwhile, inventory surged 21 percent. In Aspen, the number of sales fell 25 percent, and the average sale price dropped to $3.75 million — an 11 percent decline. Like most big markets over the past year, the top of the market suffered most, with the average price for luxury homes there sliding 24 percent. The median price also tumbled, falling 29 percent.’
‘Southwestern Connecticut’s high-end and luxury markets did not see much activity in the fourth quarter of 2016, a trend that some real estate agents say could continue into 2017. ‘The abundance of inventory in the higher-end communities of the lower county remains a challenge,..Since more inventory in the luxury sector will inevitably come to the market out of many a homeowner’s need to sell, we expect the downward pressure on prices to continue well into 2017.’
“Plagued by swelling inventory and sagging sales, Miami-Dade County’s supply of luxury condos – defined as those priced at more than $1 million – stood at 2,549 by the end of 2016, according to EWM Realty International. At today’s sales pace, it would take 57.9 months to sell them all, a 69% surge over the months of supply recorded at the end of 2015. That’s by far the highest backlog since the end of 2008, when the end of a building boom collided with the recession, briefly sending the supply in that category to a dizzying 80 months.’
When he gets through serving the other inmates breakfast, here’s where trustee Dan can remind us we’ve been saying prices would fall for ten years.
Riddle me this batman.
When housing prices go DOWN and inventory goes UP, do you hear a popping noise or a bell ringing?
Or just a magazine cover with a house, a guy smiling and bags o’money?
Where is the photo of an inmate getting his lunch on a metal tray?
Did Brazil bring back debtor’s prison?
I said a few days ago I expect that the end of low interest rates would kill the one million dollar plus housing market.
‘Currently, San Francisco is experiencing the biggest apartment building boom in more than 75 years. Thousands of new apartments and condos are coming online in the Bay Area in 2017′
Hey Rental Watch, I thought you said they weren’t building any shacks in California. 75 years. That goes back to 1942. Got crow?
From the Thornberg Article posted yesterday:
“The housing crisis is a classic problem of supply and demand. The state doesn’t build enough housing to accommodate its population. California is home to roughly 13 percent of the nation’s population and has slightly greater than average population growth. Yet, over the last 20 years, the state has accounted for only 8 percent of building permits in the United States.
California would need to expand its housing stock by between 6 percent and 7.5 percent – that’s between 800,000 and 1 million additional residential units – just to reach national norms for housing, vacancy rates and crowding.
Read more here: http://www.fresnobee.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/article54974855.html#storylink=cpy”
————
Is SF building more than ever before? Absolutely, but for a long time, they were building very little.
Is CA have enough housing for its population? Nope. Not by a long shot–and the problem is even more acute in more affordable price points.
This is what the California shack building industry was saying in 2005. And Thornberg was saying it was a bubble then, before he went to work for the shack building industry. One thing he did say back then, they needed to build affordable apartments. Well they screwed that up too. But you guys keep on with the shortage thing. I just creates more food for the vultures.
“The state doesn’t build enough housing to accommodate its population.”
There’s no excess-credit or asset-deflation in Thornberg’s world.
I just got this email:
‘It’s not often you find people who share your passion for the same thing, who take the same amount of pride in quality service and a reverence for clients, who are looking to build a brand based on deep know-how and love for the NYC real estate market’
‘It’s been quite some time since we’ve been able to write the following: resale home prices are falling. That’s right boys and girls: the price of resale apartments is-a-goin’-down!’
“That’s right boys and girls: the price of resale apartments is-a-goin’-down!’”
Record high supply, record low demand=failing housing prices
Let her rip so this mortified economy can move again.
There will be plenty of broken down debt donkey carts littering the road to that place.
“the price of resale apartments is-a-goin’-down!”
In NYC? Good. (If true.)
It does seem like a perfect storm in coming…
—
Chinese Capital Controls Threaten Property Bubbles All Over The Globe As Buyers Lose Access To Cash
zerohedge - 1/27/2017
For months/years we’ve covered the many real estate bubbles that have been inflating all over the world courtesy of Chinese billionaires looking to launder money offshore (here are just a couple of examples: Vancouver, Sydney and New York). But a new set of capital controls enacted in China on January 1st, and aimed specifically at curbing foreign real estate investments, may just be the needle that finally pops all those bubbles.
In London, Chinese citizens who clamored to purchase flats at the city’s tallest apartment tower three months ago are now struggling to transfer their down payments. In Silicon Valley, Keller Williams Realty says inquiries from China have slumped since the start of the year. And in Sydney, developers are facing “big problems” as Chinese buyers pull back, according to consultancy firm Basis Point.
“Everything changed’’ as it became more difficult to send money offshore, said Coco Tan, a broker at Keller Williams in Cupertino, California.
“If it’s too difficult, I’m out,’’ said Mr. Zheng, 66, a retired civil servant in Shanghai who declined to give his first name to avoid attracting regulatory scrutiny. He may abandon a 2.4 million yuan ($348,903) home purchase in western Melbourne, even after shelling out a 300,000 yuan deposit last August. He’s due to make another big payment next month.
And with one bubble on the verge of popping, the only question to answer now is which asset class speculative Chinese billionaires will cause to bubble over next?
‘in Sydney, developers are facing “big problems” as Chinese buyers pull back’
‘Everything changed’ as it became more difficult to send money offshore, said Coco Tan, a broker at Keller Williams in Cupertino, California.’
‘If it’s too difficult, I’m out,’ said Mr. Zheng, 66, a retired civil servant in Shanghai who declined to give his first name to avoid attracting regulatory scrutiny. He may abandon a 2.4 million yuan ($348,903) home purchase in western Melbourne, even after shelling out a 300,000 yuan deposit last August’
I asked a few years ago: do people really think this river of money out of China is never going to end?
BTW, a 348k Australian peso “home” in Melbourne is probably a box of air with one window.
“river of money out of China”
It was about then that we heard from China that all new debt was going to service old debt. Only a matter of time for that to come to its inevitable conclusion.
Perfect storm coming…
—-
“Rightsizing Has Once Again Come to the Tech Sector”
Wolf Richter • Jan 25, 2017
“Despite a flurry of leases to end the year, 2016 was the weakest year for transaction activity since 2009,” said Colin Scanlon, Research Manager, at Savills Studley, in the report on the San Francisco office sector. “Anemic demand and a deep pool of sublet space have finally brought rental rate growth to a halt.”
For the year 2016, new leasing activity dropped to 5.3 million square feet (msf), the weakest annual total since 2009, down 34% from the long-term annual average of 8.0 msf and down 43% from glory year 2014. The downturn in leasing activity had started with a deep plunge in 2015.
“Rightsizing has once again come to the tech sector, overtaking the rapid expansion phase of this cycle which had prevailed for several years,” Scanlon said. Here’s one of the consequences of this “rightsizing”:
At the same time, Schwab has been shrinking its footprint in the City and moving employees to Texas and Colorado. In 2015, it still had 2,040 employees in the City. By 2016, it was down to 1,590 employees. It has been vacating its second location, at 215 Fremont St., in sections, including subleasing 315,000 square feet to Fitbit earlier in 2016.
Tech companies have been forced to adjust their mindset this year, shifting from a grow first and profits later perspective, to a focus on squaring expenses with revenues. More businesses have kept their headcount flat, while a few have had to shut down operations entirely.
Layoffs are being announced, not just at smaller startups, but at some larger firms as well. Twitter’s 9% headcount reduction and shutdown of Vine dominated headlines, but Cisco, Intel, and Yahoo also made big cuts. Some companies remain in expansion mode but they are no longer the dominant driver.
And landlords are getting worried about the ability of some young companies to stick it out, and they’re focusing on credit-worthiness and are requiring larger security deposits.
It is not just the High Tech sector.
But Tech has been booming, so will probably crash harder than many other sectors…
‘There is just no need for those camps anymore, now the construction is over and the workers are here for maintenance,’
Picking over the bones of the Australia coal boom.
“There is a complete oversupply of houses…people out there are in financial stress and don’t know what to do.”
Alicia, it’s what people already did.
“don’t know what to do.”
Cry that they are victims?
Tell the world the banks took advantage of them?
Demand bailouts?
“Fight” for their house?
Demand government programs?
Demonstrate?
Get left-wing documentary films made about them?
Pour cement down the toilets…
Interestingly China continues to buy up natural resources including in Australia. Meanwhile its prices on solar continue to kill U.S. manufacturers of solar cells, read a story today about another U.S. company in San Antonia that just has lost most of its employees over the last two years. Here is a link to the resource story:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/Rio-eyes-coal-exit-with-Aussie-sale/shdaily.shtml
‘Transforming towers: Might Calgary convert vacant downtown offices into condos?’
‘With office vacancy rates in downtown Calgary at an all-time high, could our city take a page from Pittsburgh and turn commercial buildings into condo or apartments? Michael Glass, an instructor of urban studies from the University of Pittsburgh, spoke to the Calgary Eyeopener about why it worked for the American city.’
‘Q: Calgary’s Class B commercial real estate vacancy rate is at 32 per cent…Here in Calgary, our condo market is already saturated. Does there have to be demand for housing in order for this to work?’
‘A: There does need to be some demand. If you build it but there’s no market for it, all you’re going to be doing is spending good money and not getting any return for it. I would say there is no real long term harm in attempting to stabilize those structures and get some tax revenue out of conversion to residential…With residential uses, you are at least getting something for that property.’
‘Q: What has been the long-term impact? A: More nightlife, especially in the summer and later in the evenings. This helps with crime in terms of just having more people about.’
LITERALLY - rearranging the chairs on the titanic well after the impact.
Does there have to be demand for housing in order for this to work?’
Oh, not at all. Haven’t you heard that the law of supply and demand was repealed by the real estate industry?
This was posted here yesterday:
‘Robert Green Co CEO Robert Green will open the new Pendry San Diego in the Gaslamp Quarter later this month and has another huge project planned for the waterfront. He said the surge in hotel development stems from the strong economy, buoyed by the tremendous amount of wealth that’s been created since the recession, idle capital that needed to be placed, and the ongoing advancement of the stock market. People have more disposable income, he said. “That, coupled with the Baby Boom generation coming to the realization that living in an urban setting is pretty fun, as well as the Millennials wanting to be in an exciting, stimulating environment where there are things to do, has stimulated development in downtown.”
‘Hensel Phelps development manager Alex Guyott, whose company recently completed construction of Portman Holdings’ BRIC 1, a dual-branded Marriott International Springhill Suites and Residence Inn on the waterfront, said the hotel boom is a result of capital becoming available for hotel development after the recession. Even with hotel growth over the last few years, he believes there’s still room for more, especially with the evolution of select-service hotels, which are less costly and easier to build and finance than full-service hotels.’
“We build for Millennials, and we build for the cycle, but our projects are good for 50 to 100 years, so we have to think beyond today. We think we’ve got 15 years of this Millennial impact,” Winkenhofer said. He said there are five to seven more years before all Millennials leave school and enter the workforce, then another eight years before they take that next step to marriage and children and move to suburbia.’
‘Green said the Pendry is targeting Millennials and Gen X by focusing on art and music and providing amenities and public spaces for socializing. Besides five food and beverage amenities on the ground level, the Pendry has a rooftop gathering space that includes a bar and restaurant, a pool, a spa and a large fitness facility. He said the other project, Fifth Avenue Landing, is a convention center hotel that will connect via a bridge to the San Diego Convention Center.’
‘Green said capital markets dictate how fast we grow. “In the last eight months, we’ve seen a shift in their appetite for financing hotels, so I think that’s going to self-regulate on the capital side.” Guyott agreed, saying the banks are the biggest challenge to building hotels right now. “Banks are getting pretty skittish, but there is still capital available.” Winkenhofer said apartment developers are also seeing a pullback in the debt market. He said his company had been looking at 65% loan-to-cost, but now is in the 50% range.’
“With the cost to build here in San Diego, that leaves us with 50% equity to fill. While there’s still a good amount of equity out there for projects, the economics lenders are trying to achieve makes it hard at this debt level.” Similar to hotels, he said no apartments were developed for five years, so a rebound to the number of units coming online in ’16, ’17 and ’18 was expected. “What’s important to note is where they’re located,” he said, as there are pockets in San Diego that are starting to feel overbuilt.”
‘We build for Millennials, and we build for the cycle, but our projects are good for 50 to 100 years, so we have to think beyond today. We think we’ve got 15 years of this Millennial impact,’ Winkenhofer said.’
Uh…
More amateur misallocation of borrowed money.
Better known as degenerate gambling.
‘Green said the Pendry is targeting Millennials and Gen X by focusing on art and music and providing amenities and public spaces for socializing.
Who can’t get decent jobs
Who are in student debt up to their eyeballs
Who can find affordable healthcare now that obamacare has crushed that market
Who live in mom’s basement to save money
I see no problems…
Where does the river of federally guaranteed money borrowed from Uncle Sam enter the story?
Art and music amenities: This Generations version of ‘granite counter tops’.
Do not forget big screen TVs
I think it is cheaper to build a house out of flat screen televisions versus wood.
Whenever I get a hankering for some crow, I always check my recipe book for something new to try.
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51-BYdovQgL._SX321_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg
“four and twenty blackbirds baked in a pie”
Nothing beats the traditional recipe.
The eat it and like it.
‘At today’s sales pace, it would take 57.9 months to sell them all, a 69% surge over the months of supply recorded at the end of 2015. That’s by far the highest backlog since the end of 2008, when the end of a building boom collided with the recession’
The end of the boom creates the recession. Yesterday someone said the high end was down but not the lower stuff. When the lower stuff goes down this person will probably be looking for a job rather than reading this blog.
“Yesterday someone said the high end was down but not the lower stuff. When the lower stuff goes down this person will probably be looking for a job rather than reading this blog.”
Uh, red face here. I didn’t say that yesterday, but I did say it a few days ago or so, apropos of housing in Greenwich, CT, where the “low end” is like $500,000 to $1.5 million and the upper end is $3 million plus. I get that from Chris Fountain’s lively little blog, where he reports on sales, contracts, etc. It’s a phenomenon that has been remarked on in the past couple of years by his posters, inflation at the low end, deflation at the high end.
And I see it going on around here, quite frankly. The price points are different, but if I take a certain section of the retirement community, the non-condo part, enter it in to realtor.com, arrange it from low to high, the first couple of pages it’s all pending, pending, pending. At the low end we’re talking about 1960s-1970s concrete shacks that should be like $80,000 or less, selling for $120,000 to $175,000. After that it gets sticky.
I have two gigs already, and I don’t think I’ll be looking for a job rather than reading this blog when that stuff goes down. I’ll be celebrating. Because right now it’s stupid and ridiculous.
Heard on the street yesterday from an old codger selling his home FSBO: “I’m all set. I got my house priced right and people usually pay cash if they’re buying here.”
That was me. And actually that’s what I’ve been saying all along - the only way RE prices go down if we have a Trumpeconomy recession instead of a boom.
If you expect a boom - don’t expect lower prices, LOL.
(IMHO, some of Trumpeconomy proposed remedies are dangerous enough that they might kill us rather than cure. So I’m a bit at a loss at the wild optimism of markets and this blog.)
‘a Trumpeconomy recession’
Yeah, our natty ice swilling tennis champ already tried that one. You guys really do get talking points, don’t you?
Let me walk you through it: econ 101 - what causes recessions? Bad investments. Take a gander at the bad investments I’ve laid out for all to see above. Did that come from an administration that’s been in office one week today?
What causes really bad recessions? A bursting bubble can. “Oh this is just a cycle, happens all the time!” Yeah, we get a 5 year supply of ridiculously expensive condos so poorly designed they are practically useless, all the time. Empty million dollar houses in a country where people make $600 a month. Happens all the time! We get a 75 year high in apartment building, all the time!
Dumb idiots. They can’t see past their hatreds.
…said butters while looking in the mirror.
This dude’s a hater.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/reality-check-many-of-trumps-early-vows-will-never-actually-happen/2017/01/26/2d56bfda-e3e3-11e6-879b-356663383f1b_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumpreality-7a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.fb7dead529a7
Judd Gregg, a former Republican governor and senator from New Hampshire, said that for Trump supporters, concrete changes may be beside the point, at least initially.
“They’re more interested in the verbal jockeying and the confrontational verbal approach than the results,” he said. “So as long as he’s poking a stick in the eye of the people his constituency feels are a problem, the rest won’t matter.”
The stick in the eyes is just the icing on the “at least Hillary is gone” cake. Trump’s base will never desert him unless Trump actually makes them wish Hillary had won…and that’s highly unlikely.
His re-election depends on how big that base is. Some of the people who voted for him must be swing voters who are going to judge him on his accomplishments.
Yes, his base definitely is not big enough to elect him by themselves. But those swing voters already showed that effort spent proving he is an a-hole is wasted. Real results are all that matters and they will judge by what is actually important to them, not what they are told should be important to them.
They’re more interested in the verbal jockeying and the confrontational verbal approach than the results
I don’t believe this for a second. The goal is to bring back some of the blue-collar jobs and most of the white collar jobs, and to fill the unskilled jobs with legal tax payers. Yes, Trump is a loudmouth, but the voters believe that loudmouthing is going to deliver more prosperity than the mealy-mouth Dems. But tough talk isn’t enough. Trump still needs to deliver.
Real results are all that matters and they will judge by what is actually important to them, not what they are told should be important to them.
You could say that about any election. The majority of his votes probably came from people who always vote Republican, whether it’s a Bush or Romney or whoever. A lot of the swing voters just want someone different who’ll go to Washington and shake things up or maybe blow things up. There’s also appears to be an important group who always change regardless, which is why it’s very rare for either party to win the White House three times in a row.
If a recession happens during the next four years, it won’t be Trump’s fault. Unfortunately for him, though, many voters don’t agree.
If there isn’t a recession in the next 4 years, I would say that he did a damn good job.
The last one must have ended over 7 years ago. So Obama must have done a really great job.
If there isn’t a recession in the next 4 years, I would say that he did a damn good job.
LOL…it’s more like how many more trillions we added to the national debt. That’s how you fix recession.
The last one must have ended over 7 years ago. So Obama must have done a really great job.
The length of the business cycle isn’t usually this long. Some argue that this one has been long due to 1. the depth of the crash; and 2. the slowness of recovery (yay Obama?). However the general belief is that this current expansion is already on borrowed time–which is probably the basis for your comment that if there is a recession in the next 4 years it won’t be Trump’s fault–and the basis for my comment that if he staves off recession for the next 4 years, he successfully fought the tide.
However, if he does so on a mountain of debt, he’ll just be setting us up for the next crash.
“You guys really do get talking points, don’t you?”
Sure, at “Gosdep”. (Eyeroll, LOL.
)
Ben, could you please just walk me through this, because I still don’t understand - IF the expectation is that the economy will be booming because of Trump’s policies (including fiscal stimulus, repatriation of cash, and inflation, i.e., higher prices for everything else) - how does that jibe with the belief that RE prices and rents will fall?
How can it be that “economy’s booming, more jobs created” = “RE crashes”? I don’t get it. It’s one or the other, IMHO.
As for the likelihood of recession - no, you will not get to put recession, if it happens, at prior administration’s door. Because if it happens, it will happen due to the new administrations policies - for example, “slap high tax on imports, see demand crater and jobs lost”, “start a trade war, see American exports plummet”, etc.
Whatever happens next is on your boy. So own it, don’t be shy. It may still all work out. Maybe. I sincerely hope.
It’s pretty easy to understand. And we’ve discussed a here many times. Current housing prices are 300% higher than long-term trend. Housing prices have a long way to fall.
The effect of higher interest rates could be stronger than the effect of whatever jobs Trump generates through infrastructure spending and new factories. House prices fell significantly in California in the mid-1990s even though the economy was doing well.
Also, bubbles sometimes burst for reasons unrelated to the state of the national economy. The stock market crashed in the year 2000 even though growth was strong and unemployment low.
I myself wouldn’t put the blame for any recession in the next 4 years solely on Trump. The economy is where it is today because of policies of Obama, Bush, and Clinton (Permanent Most Favored Nation status for China) as well as the GOP House and Senate for most of the last 22 years.
‘if the expectation is that the economy will be booming’
You never got that from me. We are closer to the next recession than the last one.
What’s missing here is that the recession started about a decade ago and got whitewashed with more cheap credit. More credit is only a temporary measure that makes eventual real recovery more difficult. The collapse of systems has been baked in the cake long before Trump and IMO long before Obama. The boom had a double peak and started to roll over for the second time over a year ago. Baring another surprise monumental credit expansion like the one China is now suffering a hangover from, there is a long way down from here. Simply blaming it on Trump is childish.
@MightyMike - “The effect of higher interest rates could be stronger than the effect of whatever jobs Trump generates through infrastructure spending and new factories.”
Okay, makes sense. So basically the rates have to get high enough to counteract the effect of fiscal stimulus and inflation.
@Ben Jones - “You never got that from me. We are closer to the next recession than the last one.”
Got you. So you’re not expecting any immediate benefit spurring economic growth, but rather crash and burn scenario - crash first, then rebuild from the aches. Right?
Reversing globalism is a long term deal. I do think there could be some low hanging fruit opportunities, we’ll see. At least plug the hole in the boat!
For the bubbles, if I’m right about those there is no soft landing. Just look at these places: Hamptons, Aspen, Miami Beach, they are crashing right now. How bad it gets depends on the side effects, like pensions. Commercial real estate looks more like a disaster every passing day. We’ve got a pretty messed up situation: bonds, stocks, global real estate. Too many variables. Like how does QE fit in? How has it fit in? How much of these “values” are nothing more than QE hot air?
I agree with you there, I just see a danger of another bubble brewing due to fiscal stimulus and other inflation-prone policies, and bringing all that cash back into the country.
I can tell you what happened in Russia - they are in deep recession, but RE in good locations did not fall, in local currency. The ruble fell dramatically, so the USD prices of RE halved, but for local people earning rubles (while earning less, due to recession, and spending more, due to inflation) that doesn’t help at all.
So, the net result is that in local currency RE became even more unaffordable (apart from shitty locales which can’t find any buyers and which IMO will eventually turn into unoccupied ghost towns or gettos).
NYchk, it is a bit odd that you want something explained when you seem to have very strong opinions on the subject. An inquiring mind would search for and seek the fundamentals from various sources. The evidence is there if you search for it. Ben has posted and continues to post lots of it. As a student one has to connect the dots to really understand what the data/ information means, including one’s own surroundings (current job, residence, etc.)
And understanding recessions and when they would come has become very difficult with the kind of meddling from the central banker in the economy. It is not a question of “if” but “when”. Please don’t let your personal beliefs cloud your thinking and judgement when parsing the current housing data.
I may have strong opinions, but I’m also genuinely interested in folks reasoning, especially when their conclusions are drastically different from my own.
Deep recession? Tell us how much the Russian GDP fell over the last few years, it is a recession but I would not call it deep.
Dan, for the average folks it’s deep - businesses closing, multiple jobs lost, value of local currency halved (with resulting substantial inflation in food and other necessary essentials), banks going bankrupt, etc.
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/Chinas-property-market-to-see-slower-sales-growth-in-2017-Moodys/shdaily.shtml
MOODY’S Investors Service expects China’s property market to show a slower pace of sales growth in 2017 following tightened regulations to ease an overheated market.
“We expect nationwide contracted sales in 2017 will be largely flat or will see a slight decline from 2016, after buoyant growth that year,” Chris Wong, a Moody’s analyst, said in a report released Thursday.
China’s contracted sales grew by 36.2 percent year on year to a record high of 9.9 trillion yuan (US$1.4 trillion) in 2016, driven by growth in both sales volumes and average prices, according to the report.
The growth pace in December, however, slowed from that seen in the first three quarters after the Chinese government implemented tightening measures from late September to cool the sector, Wong said.
Dozens of Chinese cities have announced measures, including purchase limits and tightened mortgage restrictions, to prevent housing prices rising out of control.
These policies have started to pay off. In December, of the 70 major cities monitored by the National Bureau of Statistics, 46 saw their new housing prices climb month on month, down from 55 in November and 62 in October. Meanwhile, 20 cities reported month-on-month price declines, increasing from 11 cities in November and seven cities in October.
Moody’s also forecast that low inventory levels in China’s first- and second-tier cities will reduce the risk of property price corrections in the next six months.
Magnolia Seattle Housing Prices Crater 14% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/magnolia-seattle-wa/home-values/
All of the prime Magnolia properties have Asian gardeners keeping the yards tidy, no cars on the front lawn, no billboards pimping the lotto. The last huge downturn there was in the seventies, and this area muddled through without pawn shops and tattoo parlors. I know a woman whose family gave her home over-looking Elliott Bay… never paid a day’s rent in her life. Yellen is probably in a closed-door meeting right now making sure my friend will continue to enjoy her 09:30 tea in a bathrobe… gazing at the digital peeps scurrying like rats in the traffic just to keep her stocks performing. An asteroid is the only thing that will crater the Magnolia district.
I agree that 14% is just a minor step on the way down the long staircase.
You could have saved a bunch of words by simply describing it as a high income area. That downturn back in the 70s was pretty brutal for Seattle. House prices probably fell quite a bit.
I my mind there is high-income and there is old money. The high income types are usually energetic and progressive, but they also enjoy a high rate of consumption, less saving. Old money is usually conservative without all the spending on the latest gadgets. It’s a sort of hare vs tortoise journey through life.
A lot of people who inherited a lot of old money probably have high incomes as well. And if that neighborhood is an expensive neighborhood, it probably has a lot of nouveau riche living there currently.
There’s lots of “faux-wealth” on Seattle’s eastside living beyond their means using enablers like cash-out refinancing. Eventually they’ll lose everything, and someone else will enjoy their pretty wives and girlfriends.
When the lower stuff goes down ??
When the lower stuff goes down its pendulum swings the other way…It happens “every time”…Its a pyramid…The bottom is what feeds the top in many markets…
The whole pyramid rests on an ocean of credit.
The whole pyramid rests on an ocean of
credittoxic rotting debt.rests on an ocean of credit ??
Wether its equity or credit it does not change the facts on the ground “TODAY” now does it Captain Sailor….
The subtlety Dave is that the housing pyramid is not on solid ground. It is built on overextended credit. Unreliable as shifting sand or water.
is not on solid ground ??
Irrelevent…I cannot predict the future…I leave that stuff up to experts like you…What part of TODAY don’t you understand Mr. Sailor ?? No matter what you say in your post it does not change the facts on the ground here “TODAY”…
Well, if it’s all about today, why are you making ridiculous predictions?
Don’t mess with Dave. He’s on par with Nostradamus.
Remember he correctly predicted Trump would not make past Thanksgiving….2015?
My good friend Dave has an anger management problem.
You’re certainly not making things any easier for him.
It’s laughter HA,BS and butter bread. I am laughing at all three of you.
Your venom for President Donald J Trump is hilarious indeed.
No you aren’t laughing. Admit it, you are mad and angry.
How can you tell when he is incoherent?
News from Russia - today GosDuma (the Parliament) passed a law decriminalizing family battery, and limiting the maximum punishment for battery by an administrative fine of around $450.
The Parliament refused to add an exception to the law, which would have prohibited the battery of pregnant women or children.
Now, without fear of criminal prosecution or jail, one can beat the close members of one’s family, including wife and children, causing them physical pain, as long as there’s no harm (i.e., bruises are okay, broken bones are not).
“Strong men”, yup. Wonderful return to tradition and roots.
I had a collegue at work once who was always sporting some sort of cuts or bruises. He always had excuses for the injuries. Turns out his wife was abusing him physically.
The truth came out after he made the local news. His wife beat him unconscious with a frying pan while he was asleep. She then attempted to set the house on fire but the neighbors caught her and called the police.
Who do think does the beating in this family?
Hint: It isn”t the husband.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjFc9TkhrWk
Let me guess you live alone……with a cat(s)?
“Let me guess you live alone……with a cat(s)?”
Wrong guess. What about you, does your wife beat you, you poor thing?
What do you think will happen now that family battery has been decriminalized? My prediction - many more husbands will be killed by wives, and many more wives will be killed by husbands. And many more kids will kill themselves.
Like those poor kids on the news recently which made headlines in Russia. They did it publicly, and they explained while doing it that they didn’t have a choice - the stepfather was a policeman who beat his family senseless, and they couldn’t even ask police for protection because of who he was. But at least in theory, the law could have protected them, then. Now it won’t.
You know, I always thought that those people, who praise Putin for being a “strong man who leads Russia to return to its traditional values”, as if that’s something WE should emulate, just don’t know what it actually means, because they are unfamiliar with Putin’s Russia barbaric realities.
I hope I’m not wrong, and when they praise him, they just don’t know the details beyond the bare-chested strongman facade.
Even if you knew one such person, it’s unclear if you have a point. Men beat up women more than women beat up men.
I wasn’t trying to make a point, just poking at a progressive.
I wouldn’t be too sure. 20/30 yrs ago definitely more men beat up women. Now it’s 50/50 at best. It’s just that men don’t report.
Wonderful return to tradition and roots.
Do you really believe that’s going to happen here?
“Do you really believe that’s going to happen here?”
Depends. It didn’t happen there overnight, either. Took over 17 years to reach this point.
I think it’s useful to look ahead, and not do stupid things that other people already did. Learn from their mistakes, as it were.
For example, “don’t let mafia come to power”, “separate the church from the state”, etc.
Don’t become morally bankrupt.
Protect free press - that’s number one.
Sometimes it seems like, in Soviet Russia, everything is reversed. I was curious about this wife-beating bill you mentioned. It appears the bill was introduced / sponsored into the Duma by a woman.
You talk about reversed, how about this reversal. A few decades ago, the Soviet Union was communist and the United States was openly primarily Christian. Now, Putin sends out Christmas card invites to the Kremlin and Obama invites people for the “holidays” to the Whitehouse.
“the bill was introduced / sponsored into the Duma by a woman.”
Yes, it was. Same woman who a few years ago successfully introduced a bill for “censorship of the internet” and another one, for criminalizing “propaganda of untraditional sexual relations” (including oral sex and all mentions of homosexuality, such as personal coming out by gays).
She’s crazy. Well, they all are. LOL.
Do you know the nickname for the Russian Parliament? “Взбесившийся принтер”, “A Rabid Printer”. (There’s a humorous conspiracy theory that members of the Parliament are being held hostage, and all laws are being introduced, issued and printed by a deranged piece of technology - a mad crazy printer. That’s why all the laws are crazy.)
– “mad crazy printer”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-26/hedgies-panic-hamptons-luxury-home-prices-crash-43-year-over-year
Hedgies Panic As Hamptons Luxury Home Prices Crash 43% Year-Over-Year
why would the rich fear the rich?
other than a 30 mile circle around DC why worry?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/26/hillary-clinton-received-800000-votes-from-nonciti/
I know the number is based on estimation, etc. That said, I’m willing to bet that on the survey, there were still people who weren’t willing to admit that they voted illegally, despite the anonymous nature of the survey.
This seems like a good argument for more stringent voter laws–and it isn’t about suppressing legal voters. It is absurd to think that it is OK for non-citizens to vote in our elections.
The Podesta e-mail is especially enlightening:
“The WikiLeaks dump of Clinton campaign manger John Podesta’s emails contained one message on directing immigrants to vote. He said immigrants should obtain driver’s licenses and then attest at a polling place that they are U.S. citizens.”
It’s still disappointing for the president.
“Is it plausible that non-citizen votes added to Clinton’s margin? Yes,” Mr. Richman wrote. “Is it plausible that non-citizen votes account for the entire nation-wide popular vote margin held by Clinton? Not at all.”
It matters to Trump and it matters to the snowflakes but it does not legally matter at all whether Trump won the popular vote. Moreover, based on the present polls if the election were rerun today, he would win the popular vote. If I were a Democrat running in a red state in 2018, I would be very worried. A month in politics in an eternity but run the Senate races today and the Republicans might have a fillibuster immune majority.
Yes, Trump has made it very clear that it matters a lot to him. That’s why he would be very disappointed if these estimates are reasonable.
I’m hoping that Trump becomes so distracted with actual Presidential work that he no longer has the time for the petty arguments.
He seems like the kind of guy who can always make time.
Mission creep. It is amusing that the talking point has moved from “no voter fraud” to only probably a million (give or take who knows what).
I doubt that that political scientist from Old Dominion University previously said that there was no voting fraud.
Yes, but in a country where the presidency is determined by the electoral college, 800,000 votes is a pretty g-damn big number.
How many times has it been trotted out that Trump won by a margin of less than 100,000 votes over three states (WI, MI, PA)?
Yes and that really is the genius of Trump. He has the Democrats almost begging for an investigation that in the end will cause their voting rolls to shrink substantially, thus making his reelection easier. They think they win if less than 3 million get removed, but they lose big even if the number is just 800,000.
It’s only Trump who wants the investigation. Even one if House chairmen said that it would be a waste of time. Democrats may secretly want an investigation, but only to make him look silly. Even if he has the DoJ investigate, legislation is an unlikely result.
“It’s only Trump who wants the investigation. Even one if House chairmen said that it would be a waste of time. Democrats may secretly want an investigation, but only to make him look silly. Even if he has the DoJ investigate, legislation is an unlikely result.”
I agree that voting rule legislation is unlikely to result. HOWEVER, if the 800k is shown to be anywhere close to real, it will make his negotiations on immigration easier.
Trump has the media and the country focused on voter fraud. If he would have started the discussion with “we need to do something about voter fraud” the MSM would have ignored him. By leading with “I won the popular vote if you count fraud”, he had them surging to the story like a moth to the flame.
By leading with “I won the popular vote if you count fraud”, he had them surging to the story like a moth to the flame.
That’s because he has no evidence. It’s quite the spectacle.
Doesn’t matter. The point was that it worked. Based on the direction he’s gone so far my prediction (barring assasination) is that he is reelected. I would love to see the Ds put somebody up who would do good things and take him out (not named Clinton or Obama), but I won’t hold my breath.
“By leading with “I won the popular vote if you count fraud”, he had them surging to the story like a moth to the flame.”
Correctamundo
He punked the MSM and the snowflakes yet again.
I just saw a new argument that he can make. Obama had bigger crowds at his inauguration, but they would have been smaller without the illegal aliens.
Hey MookyMike,
Get on your knees, and kiss the ring.
How about this, Trump had a bigger inauguration crowd than Hillary Clinton?
I wouldn’t expect an ugly bubble to be sensible and you’ve met my expectations.
She did. Saturday’s Womyn’s protests was larger than inauguration crowd.
“She did. Saturday’s Womyn’s protests was larger than inauguration crowd.”
True, but Pornhub’s numbers didn’t drop for Trump’s inauguration.
Pornhub’s female audience goes down during Women’s March
Published time: 27 Jan, 2017 18:14
Donald Trump wasn’t the only person upset by the Women’s March last Saturday, with pornography website PornHub reporting a drop of about 2 million in its female traffic as hundreds of thousands took to the streets in an unprecedented protest.
PornHub reports that women account for 26 percent of the site’s overall 64 million daily visits. Female viewership dropped 6.4 percent below its average Saturday afternoon numbers, and by Saturday evening it had fallen 8.2 percent below the average figures.
https://www.rt.com/viral/375335-pornhub-female-audience-drop/
+1 Dan!
That made a dent.
Extrapolations based on bogus assumptions and a “survey”.
BTW, you don’t need a driver’s license here to vote, just your signature.
Exhibit A: Why dems love illegal aliens.
people with: a maid, pool cleaners and gardeners, love illegals. As do restaurant/hotel owners and contractors. And Foster Farms. And wineries. Oh, and farmers. And dont forget, car washes.
They love illegals and vote republican. And then republicans try amnesties, like Bush.
But we all love falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels.
True. (Unless one is a homeowner indebted to the gills, with no cash to spare.)
But we all love falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels?
certainly not everybody
Everybody
They love illegals and vote republican. And then republicans try amnesties, like Bush.
I thought you didn’t like Trump.
He/She loves Trump but hates Puti man.
Stop the virtue signaling already.
Almost ALL Americans have NO choice but to pay for illegal labor in some fashion. Not because we “want the cheap prices” which is bogus, but because practically all businesses hire illegal labor. Americans aren’t going to be able to deport these laborers with their wallets. Here’s hoping that Trump is somehow able to go after the employers without arising the ire of Congress.
I do not care if he does provoke the ire of Congress e-verify must be mandatory and enforced.
Is it actually illegal to hire illegals?
“Stop the virtue signaling already.”
Aww, geez, now THAT is a beautiful thing to read. I’m not worthy.
(OK, give, you got that from PJW, didn’t you, lol.)
Immigration fetishism is one of the worst forms of virtue signalling.
The low hanging fruit with illegal immigration, just make e-verify mandatory and a lot of people will self deport:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-Verify
Almost ALL Americans have NO choice but to pay for illegal labor in some fashion.
It’s not that difficult in small town American where I grew up (and that overwhelmingly voted Trump)…but maybe that’s just because not many illegals live there.
Nobody is checking IDs at the far end of the Home Depot parking lot, the last time that I was there.
Is it actually illegal to hire illegals?
It’s probably only illegal if you know that they’re illegal, which is why no one asks at the Home Depot parking lot.
Stop the virtue signaling already.
Complaining about virtue signaling is virtue signaling .
Mentioning that someone is complaining about virtue signaling is virtue signaling .
Yeah, I watched a bunch of ♥PJW♥, starting with the Sound of Silence Post Election SJW Snowflake Meltdown. Now I know where Palmetto got all his stuff. From Triggly Puff to SJW to virtue signaling on down.
And by the way, I wouldn’t mind ♥PJW♥ scrubbing my toilet. I hear he’s got some experience there.
Carl, it’s not difficult to avoid illegals directly. I can do my own housework and yardwork and don’t need a nanny. I can walk out of a restaurant if I spot tons of Spanish speakers in the back kitchen. I even pick my own strawberries.
But I’m sure I’m supporting illegals indirectly. If i need work on the house, I don’t have time to check the status whatever workers show up. I can’t boycott every hotel; i have to stay somewhere. If i get a plate salmon at Ikea, it could be an illegal washing the dishes in back. Who knows who’s butchering my grass-fed beef, although I guess i can trust the Amish. Even the farmers at the farmers markets bring some obvious Latin labor to the market. So unless I homestead like a hermit — somehow without buying anything at Home Depot — surely there’s some illegal labor in the supply chain.
That’s why I get mad at the libs who say crap like “oh but you wanted cheap prices.” BS. I never asked for low prices. The prices were forced on us, and then our incomes stagnated and we actually needed the lower prices to survive decently.
If you’re an illegal in WA, CA and other places, you show up, they give you a driver’s license and register you to vote, all at the same time.
And with 100% vote-by-mail, there is no intimidation whatsoever directed toward any particular voting block like the left wants you to believe.
For the frosting on top, we have all-democrat county workers who are handling the ballots. Workers who, will count and recount, until their candidate wins. Case in point: King County, WA.
Litchfield, CT Housing Prices Crater 10% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/town-of-litchfield-ct/home-values/
Dan - here is one for ya in ABQ: http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4312-La-Paloma-Rd-NW-Albuquerque-NM-87120/6705122_zpid/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=emo-propalert-button&rtoken=35aeee4d-36de-4b86-a530-86d42197c6c4~X1-ZU10oj2kvl0kjrd_5upaj
About $1400 a mo with 5% down.
Sisters, OR Housing Prices Crater 15% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/sisters-or/home-values/
Two-mile crack is found in the Arizona desert: Giant fissure in the earth is spotted for the first time using drone technology
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4160100/Massive-fissure-opens-Arizona-desert.html
Crater!!!!!!!!!!! Ooops, wait, Fissure!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think there’s a heckuva opportunity here. Widen that fissure and then build apartments into the sides, just like the old cliff dwellings. Then they can try some fancy marketing, like back to nature or something. Sell the natural insulation of the earth, slap up a few Navajo blankets, primitive ladders, pulleys, zip lines. Fun for the entire family!
Or better yet, aren’t the masters of the universe looking for underground hidey-holes? Problem solved!
I bet we can get the Dallas Firefighter and Policemen’s Pension to invest.
Cupertino, CA Rental Rates Crater 8% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/cupertino-ca/home-values/
CSN&Y teach your children well:
http://www.thecollegefix.com/post/30923/
or i should have said…..Ohio State class teaches students to detect and respond to microaggressions, white privilege
If it was Kent State, it could have been two songs combined.
Well I am still waiting for beach prime San Diego property values to tank. Once those Point Loma and PB crapshacks tank to 200k instead of 2 million then I would buy.
10 years ago on this board I was thinking things like that. But the 10 years since then taught me that there are too many people thinking the same thing and for that to happen we would all have to be out of jobs and the govt would have to have given up on manipulation.
So I’ve given up on the dream of getting a windfall by staying a step ahead of the crowd and instead am focused on trying to enjoy life without getting robbed to support the system if possible.
buying during armageddon? why bother, just take one over. Point Loma is alway smelly and dont leave your bike outside.
So youre one of those pale teletubbies I pity when I go back to SD! That explains a lot. Must be high on all that “smug” youre breathing in a la south park.
Boots
Buying season is 3weeks away.
Most listings on zillow still have full foliage
Taking New pictures is too much of an effort
Realturds are so durn lazy, gotta love the shots from the car on the iPhone. Or the shot of the dirty kitchen.
love it or list it!
“But, as you know, Mexico with the United States has outnegotiated us and beat us to a pulp through our past leaders,” Trump continued. “They’ve made us look foolish.”
Sure does feel like when you are driving through Mex. The wealth is outlandish!
Only because China has beat Mexico to the pulp. You just need to look at the size of our trade deficit to know Trump is right.
And the Mexican government requires voter ID for its citizens to vote.
Racists…
I might list my house after the super bowl.
Media outlets (and their corporate owners) with a vested financial interest in maintaining perceptions of a “healthy” housing market might not be the best sources of information about the true state of the housing market.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/26/daily-mail-publisher-hit-slow-housing-market/
I went over to napa and got some parts which were all made in china.
What’s the price of blinker fluid at Napa?
raging ray was saying that parts off ebay for 50% off were made in china. most of the stuff at the parts stores is from china too with huge markups.why overpay?
Was the heavy duty clutch belt worth the premium price?
Harbor Freight catalogs are gonna be a thing of the past.
order your car parts at Rock Auto. You are welcome.
It pays better to make car parts than textiles. China is slowing but they are a long way from a recession. Chinese “real wages” are going to be up around 4% this year While Americans
would not like the wages of the Chinese, they would sure like to have wages rise by a real 4%, American workers hardly keep up with inflation these days.
http://www.hrmasia.com/content/asia-see-highest-real-wage-growth-2017
autozones markup is absurd
I bought some China gas struts on eBay for my old Tercel’s rear hatchback, and they lasted about 18-months. The OEM gas struts lasted 30+ years! I now use a surveyor’s stake to prop it open… the tiny splinters are free.
Oh dear. Chinese efforts to curb embezzlers from moving their ill-gotten gains out of the country seem to be impacting housing markets favored by such money launderers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-26/world-s-biggest-real-estate-buyers-are-suddenly-short-on-cash
Hey goon
I hope you and your family are doing OK
Hadn’t heard this in a few decades but the message of it made me think of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdx6oyBOVj0
Commercial realty loan defaults are surging. Anyone else feeling this odd sense of deja voux?
http://www.financialsense.com/danielle-park/commercial-realty-loan-defaults-booming
Miami, FL Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/miami-fl/home-values/
crooks and frauds!
Bloomberg says the negative interest rates in Denmark made them richer than ever. It’s amazing. They got so much money now, they could probably fund the universal free money thing for all of Europe.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-26/danes-are-richer-than-ever-after-half-a-decade-of-negative-rates
Another win for China if it happens.
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Another attempt is underway to establish California as a separate nation.
Election officials announced Thursday that a proposal has been submitted to the Secretary of State’s Office that would ask voters to repeal part of the state constitution that declares California an inseparable part of the United States.
I have a full price offer on the table.
And America. If this happens I want to be on the east of the border.
Bellevue, WA Housing Prices Plunge 7% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/bellevue-wa-98008/home-values/
That’s my City!
NeoconChk, let’s go to war!
I have rescinded my offer!
Opinion: Two things are happening in the U.S. stock market for the first time since 1900
Published: Jan 27, 2017 11:48 a.m. ET
Buyers are lining up to buy shares whenever there’s a dip in prices
By Nigam Arora
Associated Press
Wall Street traders working curbside in the early 1900s.
There are two things happening in the U.S. stock market now that haven’t occurred since 1900.
…
The first thing
The first thing is less important but easy to understand: a rally of this magnitude in the six weeks after a presidential election.
The second thing
The second thing is more important as it foretells what may come next: the combination of items listed above during the six-week period following a presidential election. (I had to improvise some data, but it does not change the conclusion.) That is, the strength of bids in the market lined up to buy on dips.
…
What to do now
Amid all this bullishness, it’s important to remember that the market is technically very overbought. Overbought markets are vulnerable to adverse news. Adverse news can come at any time, such as when a company reports poor earnings or President Trump makes a threat to another sovereign nation. It’s important to note that, on a fundamental basis, the stock market is expensive and, thus, vulnerable.
…
Unions voting to cut pensions for current retirees. Are we going to see more of this?
http://www.cleveland.com/nation/index.ssf/2017/01/iron_workers_pension_cuts_are.html
Battery Park Manhattan Rental Rates Crater 6% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/battery-park-new-york-ny/home-values/
More hidden warnings from existing home sales.
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/more-hidden-warnings-from-existing-home-sales/
I need your login code to read it