The Thud Of Slowing Sales
A report from the Oregonian. “The Portland area’s rapidly rising home prices may have run out of steam in the second half of 2016. The sudden slowdown might be a sign the Portland metro area, walloped by escalating prices in recent years, has hit the outer limits of affordability. Aaron Terrazas, a senior economist at the real-estate website Zillow, said that recent months have brought a sea change in the Portland market. ‘Shoppers are becoming a little more price sensitive, even in the most expensive parts of the metro’ area, Terrazas said.”
From The Reflector in Washington. “The housing market looks to continue its slowdown, though there’s no need to fear a market catastrophe, according to one regional authority on the industry. Todd Britsch, MetroStudy regional director for the Seattle and Portland housing markets, explained that the housing market for the Portland metro appears to be slowing down in 2017 from the builders’ side, though he was optimistic that it would not turn in the direction the market did before the Great Recession. ‘We are just at a point where the market is leveling off,’ Britsch said. ‘It’s not doomsday, it’s not even 2006.’”
“Britsch mentioned feedback from news regarding tech companies moving into the Portland metro area and finding it more affordable than areas such as Silicon Valley. ‘Yes, it’s affordable if you are making California wages,’ Britsch said ‘We don’t provide California wages here, nor are we going to get to that place.’”
The South End Beacon in New York. “The thud of slowing sales at the ultra-high end brought down the South Fork’s real estate sales figures in the fourth quarter of 2016. Town & Country Real Estate CEO Judi Desiderio did not mince words about the state of the South Fork market. ‘The last three months of 2016 were NOT good for the Hamptons real estate markets,’ she said in her fourth quarter report. ‘Eleven of the 12 individual markets monitored by Town & Country experienced declines in the number of home sales, with the hardest hit being starlets East Hampton Village, with a 46 percent drop and Bridgehampton (which includes Water Mill and Sagaponack), with a whopping 56 percent free fall.’”
The Anchorage Daily News in Alaska. “Four consecutive years of rising home prices in Anchorage came to an end in 2016 as a weakened economy caused prices to stall out, according to year-end data from the Multiple Listing Service. Anita Bates, an associate broker at Dwell Realty, frequently works with sellers who are builders of new homes. She said these sellers tend to hold fast to listed prices, but have been more amenable of late to picking up a greater percentage of buyer closing costs than in the past.”
“‘In many instances, building companies have obtained a pre-construction approval from a bank and if they discount the price of the home, that jeopardizes their ability to go out and get another construction loan,’ Bates said.”
The Peoria Journal Star in Illinois. “A stagnation of high-end home sales in recent years may have been an early indicator of the impending loss of high-paying jobs in the Peoria area. ‘Interestingly enough, we do believe that some of the Caterpillar employees who are slated for a move to Chicago that do, in fact, live in the Peoria area, we believe that they may have even possibly had their homes listed for sale already,’ said Jana Heffron, president of the Peoria Area Association of Realtors. ‘That could explain some of the numbers we’ve been seeing in the high-end market.’”
“The higher-end market, which includes homes listed for $500,000 or more, has been declining as more luxury homes went up for sale and the number of interested buyers dwindled. From 2014 to 2016, the number of homes sold in that category declined by nearly 29 percent, while the average amount of time a luxury home stayed on the market stretched to 16.5 months, up from 10.2 months a year ago.”
From Curbed Miami in Florida. “Signs of a distressed preconstruction condo resale market in Miami are continuing, with StatFunding Founder Andrew Stearns’ January market report indicating ‘the number of condos with unsold developer units is increasing.’ Over the last three months, sales have fluttered as inventory swells and we should expect resale losses to continue with thousands of new units hitting the market in the coming quarters.”
“Stearns also took a snapshot of one specific condo in the 299-unit Icon Bay in Edgewater, which was completed in Summer 2015 and currently has 68 units for sale. All resales in that development profited from July 2015 to April 2016 but all nine of the most recent sales dating back to May 2016 have incurred losses, including one unit selling for 28 percent ($190,300) under the original sale price.”
‘In many instances, building companies have obtained a pre-construction approval from a bank and if they discount the price of the home, that jeopardizes their ability to go out and get another construction loan’
Sounds kinda fraudy Anita.
Lake Mary, FL Housing Prices Crater 10% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/lake-mary-fl/home-values/
Proposed H1B resrictionings bad no good the Americans lack STEM educations plus and don’t show proper respect. We are the smart peoples with the proper attitude to manage the work. How can the managers make the proper salaries if the workers are not low paid ?
“How can the managers make the proper salaries if the workers are not low paid ?”
LOL!
But seriously, which is it? Are H1Bs needed because there aren’t enough qualified workers here already? Or are they “needed” (as critics say) simply to suppress wages?
H1Bs are needed as cheap labor to increase “shareholder value” (maximize none-GAAP reporting profits and enable CEOs to engorge themselves on more compensation from Fed-funded stock buybacks). We are the world….
You can bring the workers here… or take the work there. Which do you prefer?
I don’t know the answer, but from what I’ve seen, once the company starts using H1Bs, it doesn’t look too carefully elsewhere for the workforce.
Whenever a need to hire arises, the same contractor H1B bodyshop is contacted to supply candidates.
Another problem I’ve seen, when I interviewed the candidates, I’ve learned that American candidates resumes might look much less impressive, but H1Bs resumes, while perfect on paper, might be actually full of crap. As in, completely made up.
If contractors are all from the same body shop, they know what kind of questions will be likely asked during an interview, and might train their friends to pass. If you’re not thorough, it’s only when they start working that you discover they just parroted the right answers but don’t know how to perform the tasks in which they were supposedly advanced experts.
I looked up an India Today article reporting on the H1-B bills that are being proposed in Congress. The commenters all seem to think that the Americans wouldn’t be able to run a software company without them, that the Americans just talk while the Indians work, and that Indians are overall better than Americans. Let’s see what happens when company has to shell out $130K instead of $60K. Suddely those Indians might not look so good.
@oxide - The commenters all seem to think that… the Americans just talk while the Indians work
From my limited experience, I found the opposite. I had more work out of Americans, Europeans, South Korean and Pakistani, 50/50 from Chinese (some were amazing, others horrible), and the least from Indians.
That was my experience years ago, but in this new job I’m impressed with my Indian coworkers.
‘once the company starts using H1Bs, it doesn’t look too carefully elsewhere for the workforce.’
That is my observation also, although in the CPA field. The CPA down the hall has about 5-6 CPA and CPA candidates working for him. Once he found one, she recruited the next several and so on.
He gets a discount on what he pays them.
It’s both. This is a case where Economics 101 is applicable. The H1-Bs increase the total number workers in the relevant fields and also lower the pay.
Thank you, Captain Obvious.
Are H1Bs needed because there aren’t enough qualified workers here already? Or are they “needed” (as critics say) simply to suppress wages?
One thing that doesn’t get talked about much is that in the current culture the global 99th percentile don’t need a lot of managing. They’re bright, they’re fast, and they dedicate their lives to their job. The old way, using 90th percentile Americans, requires some actual management and realistic expectations of how much can get done in how much time. Current management doesn’t have a lot of experience with that…they’ve spent their careers managing up and not needing to worry about what’s below. I would expect big problems adjusting if they suddenly had to go without H1Bs, even if the pipeline were already filled with properly educated Americans.
Good point. When Americans have to compete with 99th percentile H1Bs, that what you get is 99th percentile Americans, who may outperform the H1Bs. But if you remove H1Bs from the equation, you might end up with 90th percentile Americans, and then that quality comparison might change.
Well I would describe it as 99th percentile Americans who would otherwise be superstars are just average workers in today’s environment. So basically you have this whole team of what would traditionally be your superstars cranking things out at a high rate of speed and low level of problems. While the 90th percentile Americans such as myself just barely cling to the bottom rung or find niches that are hard to fill with H1Bs or bitterly cling back in the hometown. In the old days I’d have been considered a very good solid reliable engineer but that counts for little right now. I’ve learned a lot about how to find those niches in the last few years though so life is much better than it used to be even though I’m now old enough for age to also start being an issue. Which ALSO wouldn’t happen so much without all the H1Bs.
Americans lack STEM educations
Because they know they won’t be able to compete with cheap masses like you. Were you around in the late 1990’s when millions of college students were fighting to get into STEM programs and certificate classes?
We are the smart peoples
Then why didn’t you invent the internet yourself? Or innovate the new software from your home country and undercut Silicon Valley?
plus and don’t show proper respect.
Meaning, we don’t pay the proper bribes. Don’t try to fool us. We know about this game.
Meaning, we don’t pay the proper bribes. Don’t try to fool us. We know about this game.’
bingo
That, too. Kickbacks.
I am a college professor who “teaches STEM.” It is unfortunate that there are not enough STEM degrees being earned by our students. Still the H1B program is allowing companies to import STEM skills from outside the US at the expense of US students. We need to retrain some of our workers with out-dated skills but entirely willing to work. Yes, retrain our older software engineers and computer scientists. They’ll be perfectly fine employees.
Jeez.
Regards,
Roidy
Exactly. Education and retraining are the answer to increasing employability and competitiveness of the local workforce.
But that requires money.
actually you can self edu for very cheap now
free classes, kindle, youtube
when I went to b school you did NPV manually
Someone should try that in a job interview. Say “I taught myself using YouTube” and see how it goes.
I’ve found that self-taught people, with respect to any skill, tend to be hard-working and very highly motivated. Sure, no one wants a self-taught surgeon. But talent exists among individuals who don’t have formal educational credentials.
What is a good example of a self-taught profession? graphic design, circus clown or a musician maybe, but not the trades.
Self-taught here. Work for a Silicon Valley based tech/app company that you’ve heard of. The gov jobs tend to have more roadblocks looking for paper, but higher salaries once you get the TS/SCI w/ lifestyle polygraph test done.
You don’t need an MBA to run a business, or a computer science degree to write computer code. You don’t need to get a journalism degree to be a journalist. You don’t need to go to cooking school to be a chef. And you can learn a foreign language on your own. Music and art, yes, those things can be self-taught too.
Agreed. While formal education is very helpful, it’s main purpose is not just to give fundamentals, but to teach a person how think critically and how to learn.
But all true education is self-taught, whether in a classroom or solely by oneself. Although it helps to have good teachers along the way.
Self-taught with a HS degree closes many doors for high pay.
If you have a PhD and “taught” yourself something then no need to discuss.
Captain Obvious
Snake Charmer
While I agree that you don’t need an MBA to run a company it is hard to imagine how you could cope with the problems and opportunities being presented unless you knew they existed or were likely to exist within your current patterns.
Also, would you be able to take the correct response or would you grasp at useless straws because of your lack of knowledge range?
Why wound anyone choose a STEM field over, say, medicine when this H1B program is undercutting their future earnings?
It is unfortunate that there are not enough STEM degrees being earned by our students.
To make this assertion you would need to know how many STEM graduates America needs every year.
MightyMike,
I’ve learnt the hard way that there are two ways to approach a problem in policy development. First, employ statistical evaluation to drive policy decisions. This works well enough for the most part, BUT doing something like policy development requires more than a numerical understanding.
Enter anecdotal evaluation and review. Anecdotal evidence can be an inspiration to further understanding and better policy. For example, both of my children are majoring in CompSci. One minors in Business and the other is a dual CompSci/Mathematics major. Companies are after them from all sides, and one of them is only midway through the junior year.
How about a Physics PhD? Well, that all depends… I know. I have one. I’ve a great life, but I am not in all that much demand. Yes, I am nearing retirement.
My problem with the H1B Program is it simply ignores the retraining aspect. Biology major can’t seem to get anything going? This is not all that unusual. Provide a good pathway to retrain in another field. (It doesn’t have to be CompSci.) Heck, it could even be free for the asking. There are ways to do this.
Regards,
Roidy
Not enough doctors and nurses either, says the VA.
Back in the 90s I remember visiting the local college (Old Dominion University) and seeing the corkboard thing about the computer science division. Every picture was 100% Indians (Dot not teepee) as was the main professor that headed the department. I guess they got a head start on us.
H1Bs have been devastating to the millennial generation and previous generation of Americans in the name of shareholder value.
Hey Amit, I would “show proper respect” too if my employer/indenture servant sponsor company could pull my work visa and ship me back to India at any time. I do agree Indians tend to be very smart, hard working and friendly but hey, that little visa thing may have something to do with attitude.
The hard working foriegn born entrepreneurs run the American high tech companies and make the jobs to the american workers.
Without them have no silicon valley none at all
Without them have no silicon valley none at all
There was a silicon valley before they showed up. If the world revolves around them, why did they need to leave their home countries to run high tech companies?
Dammit, Amit…
(Sorry…couldn’t resist)
DJT not helping the DOW the last couple of days!
Will Wednesday be different?
Harry Dent sez stawks are gonna fall 70-90% over the next three years.
That would be nice as I have a drawer full of cash ready for some sweet returns.
it ain’t trump. it’s fear that the establishment will stop him from implementing his agenda on taxes and regulations.
Perhaps the honeymoon’s over? All the potential good that might come out of Trump’s proposed policies has been priced in, now potential risks are becoming clearer?
the risk is they’ll stop him from repealing obamacare, dodd-frank and fatca while also reducing taxes and other regulations.
lola! Cut income, increase expenses, that’ll work! See Kansas.
Wall Street is just PO’d because they thought Trump was going to be a good little Republican and take a meat hatchet to their crushing taxes immediately. Instead, he’s sucking the oxygen out of the room over those pesky American worker jobs. Oh sure, Congress will get around to tax reform eventually, but the DOW wants their profits NOW.
Smashing DC and the do nothing congress will not be good for Wall St.
time to take our medicine.
Smashing DC will not be good for anyone. Revolution is always more dangerous and disaster-prone than gradual evolution.
Sometimes the future pans out, sometimes it doesn”t, but short and mid term there’s almost always a lot of pain in smashing, for everyone. Including the smashers.
I don’t think you’re going to have a choice because Trump is going to crrrrrrrrrush it.
“…though there’s no need to fear a market catastrophe,…”
Whistling whilst strolling alongside the graveyard won’t keep away the ghosts of Housing Bubble collapse version 1.0.
‘We are just at a point where the market is leveling off…It’s not doomsday, it’s not even 2006.’
‘Yes, it’s affordable if you are making California wages,’ Britsch said ‘We don’t provide California wages here, nor are we going to get to that place.’
For those who actually want to know the facts of the executive order sans all the political posturing, hysteria and hyperbole. The Order:
1) Places a 90 day moratorium on entry to the U.S. from the seven countries named in a 2015 law aimed at requiring stricter vetting for people entering from Iran or countries overrun by jihadist violence.
2) Suspends admission of refugees from any country for 120 days in order to conduct a review of the program.
3) Suspends admissions of refugees from Syria indefinitely.
4) Caps the number of refugees this year at 50,000.
- From the Washington Examiner.
Anybody who is going to be a burden on taxpayers and a net liability to society should not be admitted, period.
The Comrades of Proven Worth over at the DNC will be gnashing their teeth at the prospect of being denied millions of lifetime dependency voters flooding in from across our southern border or as refugees from neocon “regime change” fiascos.
That’s not what The Narrative of scripted outrage on Facebook told me
Did a million little Soros bots stamp their little feet all at once? I sense a disturbance in the force.
our economy relies on trading pieces of paper and homes around to each other.
Ben, there is more to the story from the article:
“The thud of slowing sales at the ultra-high end brought down the South Fork’s real estate sales figures in the fourth quarter of 2016, while prices rose dramatically on the North Fork, according to several new real estate reports.”
“Ms. Desiderio reported a 61 percent jump in median price in homes sold in Montauk quarter over quarter, from $815,000 to $1.315 million.”
““One key statistic to note is the median homes sales price rose in nearly every market on the North Fork. This is a clear indicator that prices are on the rise,” she said.”
So, the YoY quarterly number of sales on the South Fork in the $10 million range slowed from 14 to 5. Meanwhile, the prices for more affordable homes at the North Fork rose.
That puts a bit of different spin on it, doesn’t it?
They always do. Why would I sit around repeating exactly what the media says? I’m looking for a housing bubble. If you want happy REIC talk, you can find that anywhere. The thing I’ve done is search through several hundred articles to find this for you. And you are welcome.
‘The thud of slowing sales at the ultra-high end’
When they are selling 5 or 10 houses, the median price doesn’t mean much. Are you suggesting house prices are up in the Hampton’s? Cuz pretty much everybody has been saying it’s a disaster for about a year.
The only difference is it’s 5 or 10 more wrecked DonkeyCarts on the shoulder.
Ben, I really appreciate the work and thought you put into the blog. It’s an amazing resource. Thank you!
I don’t want happy REIC talk. I’m looking for a balanced view.
If what they say is true, than it looks like there is a complete divergence between luxury and low-end (or what is considered “low-end” for the eastern tip of LI).
On the low-end, the number of sales amounts to several dozens, and rising. On the high-end, it’s in single digits and falling. On the low-end, inventory is falling and prices are rising. On the high-end, inventory is rising and prices are falling.
This looks like a tale of two markets. A very different tale for each.
Not really.
Bensonhurst Brooklyn Housing Prices Crater 11% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/bensonhurst-new-york-ny/home-values/
NYchk is pointing out that this Long Island article is another example of what we went posted about yesterday: Yes, there is a bubble at the high end. And that bubble is going to pop. However, we don’t believe that the pop is going to affect the low end. The wealthy buyers are dropping from ultra-luxury to upper-middle class luxury, competing with buyers already in the upper middle class layer, such as North Fork.
In other words, Price drops are NOT going to propagate through the price levels equally, like equally-sized dominoes. If anything, this is going to drive prices slightly UP through all the lower levels, as each level of buyer drops to a lower level price level… and has the money to bid up houses in that lower level.
Incorrect.
Take the typical uninformed DebtDonkey and put in front of him/her the choice between a run down 20 year old house or a new house at the same price.
‘it’s affordable if you are making California wages,’ Britsch said ‘We don’t provide California wages here, nor are we going to get to that place.’
“this is going to drive prices slightly UP”
That would certainly be ironic, but since a huge mania is at play the results might not be logical. If the idea catches on that leveraged real estate investment is financial suicide, it could be pancakes all the way down.
We should find out soon enough. The total housing market turnover has finally hit 0 YoY after a few years of sucker’s rally.
Boo-hoo…MSM blames “Trump’s first housing move” - reversing Obama’s attempts to lower lending standards to non-creditworthy “buyers” with taxpayers holding the bag when those loans go bad - on a drop in mortgage applications. Cry me a river, MSM.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/01/trumps-first-housing-move-tanks-mortgage-applications.html
Yet there was near complete silence from the media when Morgan Stanley dramatically reduced FHA lending in response to Obama’s regulations.
Oh dear. The Establishment Quisling “conservatives” in France put up one of their cucks to masquerade as a populist against Le Pen, but it turns out he’s corrupt -as are all Establishment French politicians - so now his support is plummeting and “far right” (non-bankster owned) Le Pen and her National Front are moving into the lead position. Globalists everywhere will be aghast at the prospect of a French nationalist coming to power and putting her sovereign nation’s and people’s interests above those of the globalists and banksters.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-01/french-political-scandal-fallout-fillon-would-be-eliminated-first-round-macron
““far right” (non-bankster owned) Le Pen”
Le Pen is Putin owned. It’s quite official, her party is financed by Putin. She got millions of dollars from him a few years ago, publicly. Last December she again caused an uproar when she publicly asked for more financing from Putin.
IMHO, it’s better to be national-bank-owned than foreign-hostile-power-KGB-owned.
Don’t you agree?
No such thing as a National Bank. They’re ultimately all controlled by international crime families.
It’s fascinating that you inevitably return to this topic, no matter what is being discussed. It’s enough to make people wonder whether someone owns you.
Funny how this is playing out:
‘The Zocalo, a vast square in the heart of Mexico City, has been a gathering place since the days of the Spanish conquistadors. Walk through it today and you’ll encounter, as expected, intense hatred of Donald Trump. But what you’ll also find is that Mexicans are just as furious at their own government for letting the U.S. president push their country around.’
“We will be better off,” said Eduardo Avila, on a break from his job as a driver. Trump and his tough talk, Avila said, might just be the shot in the arm that Mexico needs to recognize its potential. “The U.S. is not the only country in this world — why are we clinging to them like an umbilical cord?”
‘Alejandro Sanchez, a vendor on the outskirts of the Zocalo, welcomes what before Trump’s election was the unthinkable: an end to decades of friendship and economic cooperation with the U.S.’
“They can raise the tallest wall in the world, in fact they should. They can keep their burgers and fast food, their junk culture,” he said. “I think most of us feel the same way — this is an opportunity. We are such a big country that this will help us activate our domestic economy.”
‘Give Trump credit, he added. “This man did something right. He united us.”
‘Nohemi Sanchez, a recent college graduate, expressed it this way: “We send our best products and produce abroad, and they leave the worst for us. This is what angers me, really — that our government doesn’t work in favor of our interests. We’re a country rich in natural resources but Mexico doesn’t do anything.”
Oh dear:
‘Trump Backlash Turns Mexicans Against Nafta’
I think some Davos people have a little brown spot in their undies right now.
“We will be better off,” said Eduardo Avila, on a break from his job as a driver. Trump and his tough talk, Avila said, might just be the shot in the arm that Mexico needs to recognize its potential. “The U.S. is not the only country in this world — why are we clinging to them like an umbilical cord?”
Why? Because the US is pretty much the only country in the world that grants exporters unfettered access to its markets. Everyone else, even though they sing the virtues of free trade, is highly protectionist. For instance, the Mexican government requires automakers to be next exporters. They are allowed to import models not manufactured in Mexico, but only as long as the contribute to the trade surplus. Free trade, huh?
As an example, witness how the Mexican government lost its mind when Ford changed its mind about expanding a plant in Mexico and instead decided to invest in the USA. When was the last time (prior to Trump) that ANY US president said anything when a factory was offshored?
Mr. Avila is soon going to find out that it isn’t so easy to break the dependency on access to US markets, plus not being able to count on the Mexodus as an escape valve will only make things worse.
Yeah, realigning won’t be easy. But the globalists put this system in place. Any negatives are on them. What’s important is they are starting to ask the right questions:
‘This is what angers me, really — that our government doesn’t work in favor of our interests. We’re a country rich in natural resources but Mexico doesn’t do anything.’
How long have I been asking this? What if Mexico can lift itself up to its potential? Imagine what a prosperous Mexico would mean for us all.
I think Ms. Sanchez is really complaining about is theat Mexican consumers are now having to compete with American consumers (who have much deeper pockets) for the products targeted for export, and thus the Mexicans have to be content with the stuff that isn’t export quality (or pay through the nose for the good stuff.
Of course, this is but one facet of “our government doesn’t work in favor of our interests”, because it is only the Mexican elites who reap the rewards from export sales.
I’ve been buying 1 pound boxes of Mexican blackberries at Sams Club for like $4.90. For the Mexican middle class that price is prohibitive, only the upper middle class could afford a $5 treat.
Somewhat similarly, there’s a great saying in Bolivia, referring to the country’s history: we have the cow, but everybody else gets the milk. I was there during the election campaign in 2006, when Morales made clear that the “hydrocarbons” belonged to Bolivia first.
Yeah. And I’ve heard more than one Chinese person complain that they have to come to the USA to shop for the best stuff that gets made in China because it never gets put on the shelves there. I assume that will change soon though.
@snake charmer - It’s fascinating that you inevitably return to this topic, no matter what is being discussed. It’s enough to make people wonder whether someone owns you.
What’s fascinating is to read how Americans, who are not familiar with European politics, think that Le Pen is “independent” from undue influence, while the entire Europe for the past few years has been very vocally discussing specifically Le Pen; in particular, how Le Pen was scandalously bought by Putin (along with a few other choice names, including other major “opposition” right-wing candidates).
Yet here, somehow people miss all that public discourse, and are completely misinformed about who owns whom.
Putin was the only significant anti-Globalism leader in Europe. Natural allies. Now May. Next Le Pen. It is spreading.
Why is it when globalists like Soros are intervening all over the globe it is fine? How is it when Obama intervenes in Israel’s election it is fine? How is it when Obama tries to stop Brexit by telling the U.K. it would go to the back of the line that is fine? However, when Putin supports parties that might end sanctions against Russia, that is beyond the pale? In the end Putin cannot vote in France, the French population will choose.
I think the simple answer is the media trusts the left and does not trust the right, and the media is where we get our evidence for what is “fine”.
Putin is not anti-Globalism. Putin is anti-West. There’s a difference.
Putin’s actual policies:
- open borders (no visa required) with Central Asia (including all those islamic terrorist supplying nations of Kazahstan, Kyrgystan, Uzbekistan, etc).
- uncontrolled migration of cheap foreign workfoce into Russia, and crowding out of local citizens by migrants (from municipal jobs, construction, health industry, etc.)
- creation of free-trade Customs Union between Russia and neighboring countries, and an attempt to recruit more members by force (he was pissed off when Ukraine announced that it wanted to join the E.U. instead of Customs Union, and he still talks about Customs Union eventually replacing the E.U., and of China potentially joining)
- belief that Russia needs to achieve position of global dominance in deciding how the world is run (this is the main staple of Russian internal, but not external, propaganda; the belief that all problems will be solved once Russia re-creates the global power, and interference into other’s countries, that the Soviet Union once wielded).
Putin is very much a “look at what I do, not at what I say” guy.
The truth is that Putin is very much pro-globalism, but with a caveat. He wants it so that Russia would get the deciding seat at the geopolitical table, while former rivals would be weakened and subdued. He’s also truly anti-liberal, in its direct sense of being “anti-liberty” (no power for people, very limited personal freedoms).
Russian propaganda pushed the myth of Putin’s “anti-globalism”, because that’s what his right-wing allies want to hear. Russia even organizes “anti-globalist congress”, to which they invite all main world separatists, including from the U.S. (California, Hawaii, etc.) and Europe.
Putin encourages sedition and secession in other countries. But he’s a global Empire-builder himself. That’s why he’s financing Le Pen. It’s not just about removing the sanctions, he wants to see the E.U. gone, dissolved.
European countries are too small to stand up to Russia individually. If E.U. collapses, Russia will pick up the pieces and achieve utter dominance, which is what Putin is after.
the media trusts the left and does not trust the right
It’s a false meme. The U.S. media is not “left”, it’s centrist: socially liberal, while conservative on economics issues.
For example, the much maligned CNN actually for years has been exhibiting a much more pro-right-leaning than pro-left stance.
It’s only in loud controversial PC issues, i.e., gay-transgender-racial-women-and other-rights, that the so-called “left media” is actually very “left-leaning”.
In everything else, including social spending, economy, business, taxes, even foreign policy, in other words in everything that actually matters, the mass media in the U.S. is much more “right-leaning” than what you’re led to believe.
Sometimes I think it’s done on purpose. Create this image of the “left media” and push through them the “right” economic policies, while distracting the population with whatever latest divisive social issue.
It’s not a false meme. It’s just quibbling over the definition of left and right. To the average person’s the media is in the bag for the Ds and the SJW agenda, and that’s what counts.
What’s SJW?
The social justice warriors that the right loves to hate.
But it’s a distraction, isn’t it? Very divisive socially, but ultimately much less important than economy, for everyone.
Also, it’s misleading to call them SJW, because it’s not so much about SJ as it is about PC and rights issues.
uncontrolled migration of cheap foreign workforce into Russia
I’m sure Le Pen would be happy to send those kind folks living on the streets of Paris, as a gift to Putin.
The next question after what’s an SJW is what exactly is a social justice warrior?
SJW - I’d guess that’s the new meme about bleeding-heart-liberal, isn’t it?
In other words, good folks.
From the urban dictionary: “A pejorative term for an individual who repeatedly and vehemently engages in arguments on social justice on the Internet, often in a shallow or not well-thought-out way, for the purpose of raising their own personal reputation. A social justice warrior, or SJW, does not necessarily strongly believe all that they say, or even care about the groups they are fighting on behalf of. They typically repeat points from whoever is the most popular blogger or commenter of the moment, hoping that they will “get SJ points” and become popular in return. They are very sure to adopt stances that are “correct” in their social circle.”
So, not a bleeding-heart-liberal.
If the Urban Dictionary definition is to be used, the number of the SJWs would have to be very small, especially since so many people don’t use their real names on the Internet.
That whole definition sounds like a feeble attempt by a bigot to try impugn people who have criticized his bigotry. He’s probably a sheep who’s too much of a coward to state state his opinions clearly.
They named themselves Social Justice. I know people who sit on a Social Justice committee. They “warrior” was added by others as a mockery.
Nationalist parties and their supporters cannot compete with the billions of dollars the Establishment parties receive from their oligarch pimps. I’m not surprised Le Pen is turning to Putin for financial help, since otherwise she would not have the resources to take on the Establishment - but I think she will put France’s interests ahead of Russia’s, while the Establishment parties continue to be craven water carriers for their globalist masters.
D’you know there was actually a dude named Quisling?
Quisling - is a person who collaborates with an enemy occupying force.The word originates from the Norwegian war-time leader Vidkun Quisling, who headed a domestic Nazi collaborationist regime during the Second World War.
I didn’t know that until the other day.
You must’ve been the valedictorian at the NEA indoctrination mill you attended.
I just saw that Wikileaks now has a bunch of stuff about that François Fillon guy.
It’s funny, because just like Le Pen, Fillon’s is Russia’s through and through. Although his views are a bit less extreme than Le Pen.
With investors demanding a higher return on buying monetized debt (that the Fed is going to print away anyway), today’s FOMC meeting will likely be the final opportunity in awhile for Yellen the Felon to pull her played-out “Lucy and the football” routine of mumbling incoherently about “the data” as an excuse to continue her bilking of savers and the prudent with near-ZIRP interest rates.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Bond/TMUBMUSD10Y?countrycode=BX
Italian youth unemployment hits 40% (though many are probably working in the “informal” sector, i.e. selling drugs or their bodies). But global oligarchs are richer than ever. Heckova job, Draghi.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-31/italy-bond-risk-soars-3-year-highs-youth-unemployment-tops-40
More likely, they are just working under the table, double dipping into unemployment benefits, while getting paid cash for their work.
Wow. A Canadian citizen Chinese billionaire, who is also a permanent resident of Hong-Kong and a diplomatic passport holder, (net worth nearly $6 billion), was reportedly abducted by Chinese authorities from his luxury Hong-Kong hotel, and taken across the border to Mainland China.
As Hong-Kong authorities organized a search for him, a statement denying the abduction, supposedly from him, appeared in a front-page Hong-Kong newspaper ad.
The ad said that while he lived overseas, he remained a loyal China patriot who “has always loved the (China Communist) party and the nation, and has never participated in anything that would hurt the country’s interests or the government’s image, let alone support any opposition forces or groups.”
“I’ve always loved the Party”, LOL.
Doesn’t look good. Poor hostage. Even his Canadian passport and diplomatic immunity, along with $6 billion, didn’t help. Canadian consulate is investigating, but they are helpless in cases of dual nationals. He’s screwed.
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2017/02/01/world/asia/ap-as-hong-kong-china-missing-tycoon.html
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/xiao-jianhua-disappears-hong-kong-reportedly-mainland-china-n715221
According to original sources the only facts seem to be:
He went to China on 1/27 late at night (not clear on whether or not it was voluntary). On 1/28, someone in China sought Hong Kong police help. On 1/29, Xiao’s family told the Hong Kong police that he had called to say he was fine, so they asked the police to cancel the investigation. Then on 2/1, Xiao released a written statement through his company that he was not kidnapped.
我們俄國小同志的中文程度如何？還拿得上檯面嗎？要是看不懂繁體字，跟我說一聲喔！
A litmus test of Trump’s willingness to put the people ahead of the banksters: whether he will move to reinstate Glass-Steagall, repealed by Bill Clinton, which enabled the speculators at the Wall Street banks to run riot and create massive systemic risks.
http://wallstreetonparade.com/2017/01/donald-trump-has-a-goldman-sachs-problem-derivatives/
Thanks for that link. I could not agree more with your comment.
On this topic, I read some stuff people posted on Bannon. I’m coming into this not knowing anything about him…but I see the negative stuff that’s being written lately. I assumed from what I’ve read that I would probably find his opinions undesirable. I was surprised to find the interview with him to spend significant time on the problem with the housing bubble and the economic crisis of 08-09 not being allowed to clean things out. Not what I expected from a Nazi.
So it would seem either he’s actually a good guy…OR…he’s a Nazi that happens to be right on quite a few things. I’ll be curious to see which it turns out to be…
It’s possible that his mind might have a couple of good ideas in it. The original Nazis built the autobahn system.
Bannon is a self-described Leninist, who supposedly told writer and historian Ronald Radosh at a 2013 cocktail party:
“Lenin wanted to destroy the state, and that’s my goal, too. I want to bring everything crashing down, and destroy all of today’s establishment.”
http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/steve-bannons-war-on-the-press
Trump seems to be really good at picking capable and qualified people. The Globalist party in the US and elsewhere is hysterical over their loss in the US election. They are screaming labels at the top of their lungs in desperation. Nazi! Russia! Bigot! Women! & etc.
Trump’s bigotry is well documented.
I haven’t seen anything out of you yet, except Kremlin and Trump’s talking points.
Do you ever think for yourself?
Most of the things I say are in line with what I was saying before Trump introduced himself. Since you weren’t here NYChk you’d be clueless about that as well.
As for the shrewish screaming, that is what I am seeing since election time. Ben calls it foot stomping. Your voice is among the loud and shrill. Quiet until the election was lost.
Putin is our natural ally at this point in history because he is not part of the club that we call Globalists. They are our gravest danger, not the Russians. The Globalists want to take Russia out by force. Peace through strength is our best position. The Russians are wonderful people. They will have to clean their own house as they see fit. We have enough work to do here at home.
Most of the things I say are in line with what I was saying before Trump introduced himself.
That doesn’t say much, as the Kremlin-far-right talking points have been promoted much earlier than Trump.
Honestly, I’ve read all the anti-global-conspiracy-anti-liberal hysterics in Russian media way before it made its way to the U.S. shores.
Hang in there Blue Skye.
‘anti-global-conspiracy’
‘Petraeus: World order under ‘unprecedented threat’
“Americans should not take the current international order for granted,” Petraeus said at a House Armed Services Committee hearing. “It did not will itself into existence. We created it.”
http://thehill.com/policy/defense/317321-petraeus-world-order-under-unprecedented-threat
NYchk, may I ask how long you lurked before you began posting?
I didn’t lurk at all, I had no time to read the blog for the past few years. I showed up a few times, posted something and left.
But before that, I was a regular for several years. Prior to, during and a bit after the last burst bubble.
I remember NYchk’s posts from 8 or so years ago.
NYchk has been around awhile (many of us come and go from posting), and participated in the 2009 Vegas HBB meet-up.
And oxide was at the Washington meet-up.
Ben, time for a meet-up?
Neil Gorsuch
“Western grit”
“a whopping 56 percent free fall.’”
Collapsing demand and skyrocketing inventory is always the end result of grossly inflated prices. It’s why the economy is a disaster and unemployment at record high levels.
The Economist discusses how Trump’s policies might slowdown foreign tourism to the U.S.:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2017/01/no-warm-welcome?fsrc=permar|text5
I wonder, how much that would affect New York? Foreign buyers are the best hope of condo sellers. They tend to overpay.
Rumors are flying that Visa Waiver program might be scrapped. That will certainly put a damper on short-term trips, but would it affect those Miami foreign snowbirds?
Here’s the rankings of inbound international visitors to the U.S.: Canada 20%, Mexico 18%, U.K. 5%, then Japan, China, Germany, Brazil.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/214789/number-of-international-visitors-to-the-us-by-region-of-residence/
The financial reckoning day slouches closer, as rising inflation and borrowing costs will force the Keynesian fraudsters at the central banks to finally curtail QE and ZIRP/NIRP.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-01/european-bonds-post-worst-january-on-record-amid-political-angst
MightyMike
Do you have a garage sale planned for this weekend?
Have you contacted a Realtor about the sale of your home?
You should have already emptied your bank account and had the proceeds put in a cashier’s check made out to Black Lives Matter.
Liquidate and pay your reparations.
“White people, give your fuc#ing money, your fuc#ing house, your fuc#ing property, we need it fuc#ing all,” as another protester responds “reparations!”
Slavery reparations sought in first Black Lives Matter agenda
By Eric M. Johnson | SEATTLE
Tue Aug 2, 2016 | 5:49am EDT
A coalition affiliated with the anti-racism Black Lives Matter movement called for criminal justice reforms and reparations for slavery in the United States among other demands in its first policy platform released on Monday.
MORE FROM REUTERS:
Obama to Republican leaders: Why are you still endorsing Trump?
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-race-idUSKCN10C3E1
Why are you directing this at me?
Why do you ask?
because I want to know the reason?
Because they sound like your people.
Now if you’ll excuse me, Terrence and I are going to KFC.
Terrence Williams “You go to Africa, I’ll stay here with my white friends”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVS52zoTLjo
They sound like my people? You’re very confused.
#CorrectTheRecord
” the anti-racism Black Lives Matter movement ”
WTH? BLM is about as racist as it gets.
“Slavery reparations sought in first Black Lives Matter agenda”
These noisy protesters have no idea the expense, effort and time that functional people commit to become productive members of society.
Sales of homes especially over 600k have been a problem for some time now. Only foreign money held up luxury market and now even that is going away faster than a ice cream cone in Death Valley.
“Sales of homes especially over 600k have been a problem for some time now.”
In the early 2000s I used to think $150k range was what a decent middle class house cost.
Is $300k the new $150k?
Is $300k the new $150k?
Short answer, yes. At least for now. The house I built in Colorado for 136k in 1997 Zillows for over 300k now in a not-particularly-special location with no improvements. It was stuck at 220k (what I sold it for in 2005) from about 2001 until about 2011.
And not a buyer in sight at a small fraction of that price.
‘The thud of slowing sales at the ultra-high end…‘Eleven of the 12 individual markets…the hardest hit being starlets East Hampton Village, with a 46 percent drop and Bridgehampton (which includes Water Mill and Sagaponack), with a whopping 56 percent free fall’
Starlets, I wonder what she means by that?
Former rising stars of the market?
which city in US will have the most dramatic,unforeseen fall?
dc
ny
sf
dallas
seattle
chighetto- biggest ,but not unforessen
? que’
Denver? Where’s In Colorado to give an opinion on this?
My guess would be a place where the economy doesn’t have a significant tech, manufacturing, defense, or energy element. That would be Miami, although its fall is hardly unforeseeable.
While there are jobs in Denver, they pay flyover wages. For example, a silicon valley job that pays 130K-150K will pay 90k-100K here (or less). The housing market in Denver is overdue for an adjustment.
They pay is better in Omaha, KC, Minneapolis, etc. than Denver.
Dallas aint falling anytime soon. Many companies are moving here to escape the giant taxes of Kkkalifornia and New Jerk
My money would be on Dallas. Huge supply being added…
‘Huge supply being added…’
You got that right. From my office I can see 3 apt complexes going up as well as a bunch of row homes starting at $400k….
There’s a local builder who is actually building some semi affordable homes starting at $200k, granted the area is kinda meh at this time but it is close enough in it may revitalize.
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2017/01/27/new-ne-dallas-neighborhood-will-mix-incomes-architecture
All of the above and more.
Seattle. Non-tech/public sector jobs pay crap (my job in Seattle pays less than here in nowhere Kansas) and the depressing weather (which I happen to love) means when the depression sets in it hits hard.
peoria? what is it ,a mile and you’re in raw land?
grand rapids
bend
all these places are tiny,commute-wise
in dc prices don’t drop till you’re one hour out during rush.
‘the 299-unit Icon Bay in Edgewater, which was completed in Summer 2015 and currently has 68 units for sale. All resales in that development profited from July 2015 to April 2016 but all nine of the most recent sales dating back to May 2016 have incurred losses’
Nine sales since May 2016.
Mead, WA Housing Prices Crater 12% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/mead-wa/home-values/
Bwah! Johnny Depp’s money managers accuse of extravagant spending of $2 million per month:
“The complaint claims Depp spent:
Over $75 million on 14 residences, including a 45-acre chateau in the South of France, a chain of islands in the Bahamas, multiple houses in Hollywood, several penthouse lofts in downtown Los Angeles and a horse farm in Kentucky.”
http://people.com/celebrity/lawsuit-claims-johnny-depp-in-debt-due-to-spending-2-million-a-month-on-ultra-extravagant-lifestyle/
depp may join nick cage in RE hell soon !
Who is Johnny Depp?
Edward Scissorhands
“Edward Scissorhands”
Only heard of that on a Seinfeld episode.
Kramer said he wanted to have Shoehorn hands.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2A9vRjwfQY
Sounds like he might be begging Disney to do another Pirate movie.
They should have stopped at one.
So true. Although the music scores to POTC 2 and 4 were very nice.
@phony scandals - Who is Johnny Depp?
You are not from around here, are you? LOL
What did Edward Scissorhands do on the toilet?
Wow. Depp may have just topped Nicolas Cage in the Pantheon of Celebrity FBs.
I want a horse farm in Kentucky, too. Or a castle in France. Or an island. Just one would be enough, I’m not greedy.
Great article and as a bonus it talks about the “mansion” tax in NYC:
http://nypost.com/2017/01/31/democrats-are-digging-their-own-grave-and-boosting-trump-at-the-same-time/
“paid for a Florida residence dropped from $539,000 in 2015 to $412,000 last year.”
A 25% decline and still massively overpriced considering construction cost of $55/sq ft(lot, labor, materials and profit). It sounds like contractors are cannibalizing the snot out of DebtDonkeys.
Ben,
Not sure if this is a “fake news” but …
All India newspapers are full of news of H1-B/L1 visa base salary of 130K p.a (regardless of #years of experience or which state the job is in).
That would kill all body shoppers. And cause big dent in contractors from Infosys, TCS, Cognizant, Wipro (big IT giants from India). This will cause exodus of renters from bay area back to India, pushing rents down in San Jose. When rents go down a lot, (and new inventory build up in rental as well as housing), it is going to push real estate south bigtime.
Trump is doing some good things finally.
No piece covering this?
It’s a nice narrative to provide cover for what is already is the deflating of a massive global housing bubble.
The only thing I saw was that there was bipartisan support for some kind of reform, and that at least one Congressperson and one Senator have already introduced bills. I did read a few comments from an India Today article. Some Indians think that the companies will just offshore the jobs to India rather than pay $130K.
They need to include a provision in the bill for include offshore jobs as well
Exactly, limiting H1Bs is not enough. Otherwise this will just make them offshore more.
They’re already offshoring everything they can. If it hasn’t been offshored it’s because there is a compelling reason to keep the job here.
They will offshore more. A client of mine (Fortune 100) has not only off-shored support work….now they are starting to offshore actual new projects with significant development work. The whole business people, SME’s, Architects are in USA but somehow the mgmt expects development work will be done cheaply/timely by InfoSys in India. Never seen this kind of delusion in any other corporation.
Eventually, they will grudgingly bring those projects back once they realize that InfoSys can’t deliver.
I worked in that kind of situation for many years. One selling point was that defects could be worked over night. The reality was that there were a lot of mistakes and communication issues.
“The reality was that there were a lot of mistakes and communication issues.”
That’s the problem. You fire off an email and if they have a question you won’t see their response until the next day. That really slooooows things down.
They’re already offshoring everything they can. If it hasn’t been offshored it’s because there is a compelling reason to keep the job here.”
It really strains US based managers to keep workers on track by phone. From my cube I hear the shrill wailing all morning long as our managers give orders and ask questions. Then they fly to Asia and bring back all kinds of viruses.
Chinese new year way more important holiday than Christmas around here because that’s were all the work is done.
India is software
Hulk, smash, smash! Just as the writing on the wall said 45 would.
Yeah! Isn’t it great? Go DJT!
I know that RT is rage time for NYchk but this is an interesting article which shows how the sanctions on Russia have failed and are actually beginning to reindustrialize Russia and are pushing Russia and China closer, which is not good for this country:
https://www.rt.com/business/375887-lada-atovaz-china-uae-exports/
And it has not undone the damage done by our state departments intervention:
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2017/02/01/Ninth-soldier-killed-in-fighting-as-situation-in-town-in-eastern-Ukraine-detoriates/9181485962295/
Regarding Ukraine situation recently, Russia is moving troops closer to the border, and they started shelling Ukraine’s territory. It’s Putin getting aggressive again, perhaps to test Trump.
As for China-Russia ties, it’s all true. Not only that, but Chinese are moving in, colonizing the Far East and Siberia, and have been for years. Russia signed a bunch of treaties with Chinese allowing them to do that (move in, lease and farm the land, build businesses, hire exclusively Chinese workers for those businesses).
Another example of China and Russia growing ever closer:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/d9f9067f-b9fd-3b54-8aae-607e07796963/russia-and-china-are-making.html
Dan, if you insist on reading Geobbeles News, it’s your choice.
Just ask yourself, would you trust the information you could get about totalitarian Germany or Soviet Union from their official Party newspapers?
Unfortunately, I can’t direct you to any other English-language Russia-focused source, as there aren’t any. The Russian equivalent of Bloomberg/Reuters business news (i.e., less bull, less propaganda) is available only in Russian. And they are way less optimistic, LOL.
If you’re interested in Russia and world affairs, I’d suggest avoiding RT entirely, and reading Europe-focused BBC, Financial Times and Independent.
I read all the sources you state, I have satellite radio largely to listen to the BBC, but I think you need to read what the Russians are putting out, if you cannot give the appropriate weight to what you read then you lack basic judgment.
I think you need to read what the Russians are putting out
That’s fine, but just remember that propagandists usually follow the 60/40 rule (60% of information is true while 40% is complete disinformation).
Actually, it would be useful to also familiarize yourself with formal propaganda techniques.
There was a good article from a Russian journalist on different disinformation techniques, who studied them in MGU (that’s like Russian Harvard, LOL).
Okay, here it is, “Combat Propaganda” in English (stroll down for the article):
https://medium.com/@ZarinaZabrisky/rotten-herrings-and-crucified-children-c4c278466985#.xa5wm6g7n
NYchk will enjoy this one. Of course, we all know Deutsche Bank is a criminal banking organization, and here’s some more of it. Laundering $10 billion for the Russians.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-31/deutsche-bank-fined-204-million-over-money-laundering-failings
“The mirror trades allowed clients to buy local blue-chip shares for rubles, while the same stocks would be sold in London for dollars, in order to obtain the U.S. currency. ”
“The New York regulator said Monday it also appeared a close relative of a Deutsche Bank supervisor in Moscow received bribes worth a quarter million dollars so that the supervisor would clear the trades.”
–
Of course all that will happen is they pay the fine, slap a few people on the wrist (or give them promotions), and then go back to laundering money again.
This is old news, about Deutsche Russian money laundering.
I’m disappointed they got a slap on the wrist. When it was first discovered, there were threats of licenses getting revoked, and resulting bankruptcies, LOL.
Why does everyone think they’re entitled to a free ride in the US?
http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/01/pf/college/somalia-somaliland-students-trump-travel-ban/index.html
Starr said it’s important for them to study in the U.S., where scholarship financing is more readily available.
“Europe has few full scholarships for international students. Our students have no money so they must get full scholarships,” he said.
So the Kumbaya singing Euros don’t have scholarships for foreigners? Funny, how other countries take care of their own first, but when we do it then we’re racists or something.
What is he talking about? There are no scholarships because foreigners in Europe study FREE. In Germany, in Czech Republic, in France… University-level education is free for foreigners.
All you have to do is pass a test and get accepted into the university. The only catch is that the classes are taught in the local language, i.e., in German, French, Czech…
If you want an English-language based program, then it’s not free. Although you can get a scholarship for English-based programs in Dutch universities.
We have enough educated fools in this country. We don’t need anymore.
Yeah, those uneducated fools are much more entertaining.
Speaking of uneducated fools…..
All you have to do is pass a test and get accepted into the university.
That’s all?
If these countries are like Spain, the tests are ball breakers, and you better know what you want to do before you apply, because the test is different depending on your area of study. There is not a generalist track where you can determine what to study later.
True, but it’s the same for locals.
It sure isn’t free in the UK. And it isn’t free at private universities either.
There are still living expenses to cover, plus travel and books and stuff. I imagine paying for that could be a deal breaker for someone from a 3rd world country,
Tuition is free, but living expenses are not. For those, there’re scholarships, grants, and work.
Foreign students in Europe are allowed to work, unlike in the U.S., and while the scholarships are not large (250 euro per month, for example), the student housing rent is also pretty cheap (200 euro per month). All in all, it’s a very good deal (free education, come on!
), if one is willing to learn the local language.
U.S. factory activity hits two-year high; private payrolls surge
U.S. factory activity accelerated to more than a two-year high in January amid sustained increases in new orders and raw material costs, pointing to a recovery in manufacturing as domestic demand strengthens and the drag from low oil prices ebbs. Other data on Wednesday showed private employers boosted hiring last month.
Isn’t confidence in Trump wonderful?
Good try lola.
If there is a burst of job growth in the coming months, it will be too soon to be because of Trump’s policies. It will be entirely because Trump is not HRC or Obama.
Can we then please conclude that Obama was not a driving force behind whatever recovery we had, but an instead an impediment to it?
You already know the reason for a burst of job growth that may appear in the future? You sound like that guy last week who credited Trump for ending California’s drought.
Obama was a driving force in recovery, because he was smart enough to step aside and let the Fed do its job and save the economy, instead of watching it burn to ashes. (Even though people on this blog do not like it.)
Hahah…I think we have different definitions of “save”. Kicking the can until you’re out of office (which both sides have done for quite a while) isn’t saving anything. The snow on the steep slope above us just continues to get deeper.
Only an idiot will call that “saving” the economy.
What do we even use words like “saving the economy”? What does that even mean? Is the economy a child that is about to hit by a car that needs saving? What the F is saving?
Growth instead of Great Depression, unemployment of 4+% instead of 9+%.
Overall, pretty good economy compared to where we’ve been when Obama inherited Bush’es mess.
In the meantime there are record high levels of unemployed.
Growth instead of Great Depression, unemployment of 4+% instead of 9+%.
Overall, pretty good economy compared to where we’ve been when Obama inherited Bush’es mess.
———–
The “recovery” occurred because the American economy is resilient, not because of Obama’s policies. Obama did two things that dramatically slowed the recovery.
1. Passed the ACA, a law that dramatically changed 15%+ of the economy, and was so long and complex that it took years to understand and be implemented. Business does not do well with uncertainty.
2. Passed Dodd Frank, a vague roadmap for financial reform that took years to be turned into a massive number of rules written by the SEC–IMMEDIATELY AFTER A FINANCIAL CRISIS. The result of which is a regulatory environment that has resulted in big banks getting even bigger. In addition to a long period of uncertainty, this stifled capital flows, which impedes job growth.
Massive regulatory uncertainty combined with stifling capital flows immediately after a financial crisis is idiotic–only a fool would think that this didn’t impede the recovery.
Look Attitude even Keynes understood the importance of .Animal spirits. Every since Trump was elected consumer confidence has been soaring, small businesses in particular have been growing more confident. Trump has improved the economy, now going forward he will have to actually do something or those animal spirits may turn negative.
false
Consumer confidence in January slips from 15-year high
By Steve Goldstein
Published: Jan 31, 2017 10:12 a.m. ET
Consumer confidence edged back in January from lofty heights, on a slightly more sober assessment of future income in the wake of the election of President Donald Trump.
The Conference Board said Tuesday consumer confidence fell to a reading of 111.8 in January after hitting a 15-year high of 113.3 in December.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-in-january-slips-from-15-year-high-2017-01-31
What part of 15 year high do you not understand? It just slipped from it, it did not crater.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits_(Keynes)
@ Rental Watch - The “recovery” occurred because the American economy is resilient, not because of Obama’s policies.
Aha. Then why did Great Recession happen, because the American economy is depression-prone, not because of Bush’es policies?
Sure, it all just imploded by itself, and then healed by itself, without any interference whatsoever. At one point it got so bad that people on this blog were talking about hoarding gold, guns and self-farming for food… but that had nothing to do with disastrous economic policies, and everything to do with “just natural, by itself, move along, nothing to see”. LOL
It was Trump’s election that brought it to a 15 year high. Obama never brought consumer confidence back to pre-recession levels hence the poor GDP growth, no 3% growth during his entire eight years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits_(Keynes)
The 15-year high occurred during Obama’s term. Then confidence fell during the month that he left the White House.
It was dropping prior to the election of Trump. It was the Trump election that caused consumer confidence to go up just as the stock market rose due to the Trump bump. Obama failed to achieve even one year of 3% growth. Virtually unheard of in this country
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/25/consumer-confidence-report-for-october-2016.html
Spinning like an Obama operative MM. CC is not hurt by Obama leaving that is a very positive development for consumers and businesses, unless they are dependent on government.
I was just joking. Those rises and falls in that index are over the three months are insignificant.
Also, there are plenty of consumers and businesses affected by the government. In turn, there are many more who are dependent on that group.
Our “economy” is in such sorry state that “recovery” means some leveling off at a much, much lower rate of employment. The Department of Truth doesn’t talk much about the 10 million who have never gone back to work or didn’t enter the workforce. The numbers are true perhaps, but the headlines are lies.
Some also quickly forget an aspect that we explored here not so long ago; Loss of 6,000 engineering jobs and gain of 10,000 bartending jobs is not economic growth that we can be proud of.
Our “economy” is in such sorry state that “recovery” means some leveling off at a much, much lower rate of employment.
No, employment has increased during the recovery.
Aha. Then why did Great Recession happen, because the American economy is depression-prone, not because of Bush’es policies?
Nope, it wasn’t Bush. The crash was a long time coming.
Do yourself a favor. Watch “Inside Job”, the Oscar winning documentary.
It traces the bubble back to failed efforts to regulate the derivatives market. Look up the name “Brooksley Born”, and how despite her recognition of the problems in the derivatives market, Larry Summers quashed her efforts to regulate–with big banks cheering him on.
This was under Clinton.
In 1995, Clinton changed the CRA to push lenders to make more and more risky loans.
Blaming Bush is very convenient, but this train was set rolling long before.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooksley_Born
Under OBAMA, in 2009, Born won the “John F. Kennedy Profiles in Courage Award, along with Sheila Bair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in recognition of the “political courage she demonstrated in sounding early warnings about conditions that contributed to the current global financial crisis”.
Born sounded the alarm bells under Clinton.
Later:
“Born declined to publicly comment on the unfolding 2008 crisis until March 2009, when she said: “The market grew so enormously, with so little oversight and regulation, that it made the financial crisis much deeper and more pervasive than it otherwise would have been.”[9] She also lamented the influence of Wall Street lobbyists on the process and the refusal of regulators to discuss even modest reforms.”
Mikey,
Consider the meaning of the word “rate”. The absolute number of those working can increase while the rate goes down, if the population is growing.
Yes, and the rate of employment rose. Of course, that’s a roundabout way of saying that unemployment fell.
The participation rate of 25-59 year olds is still below normal. And those not participating are not included in the math.
Normal is a matter of opinion. However, of the 25-54 who are employed is higher than it was when Obama took office.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060
Yes, and the rate of employment rose.
the government counts the number of jobs as the number of people working, according to peter schiff.
if he’s right, 1 person working 2 part time jobs counts as 2 people working.
so a guy loses his 1 high paying full-time job and has to take 2 lower paying part-time jobs to make up for it and the unemployment rate goes down. so you end up having a worse situation that looks better in government numbers. whoda thunk it?
the irony is that when obamacare gets repealed and people start taking full-time jobs again, the unemployment rate will go up again for a while, even as the economy is improving.
No Mikey, the participation rate is at a significant low. Try to consider what the word rate means.
No, look at the graph. It’s not low. It’s also not as significant as you think.
Also, once again, for hundredth time, that rate that you’re focused on includes retired people. Everyone knows about the aging of the Baby Boomers.
Wrong graph.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060
RATE, not number.
From 1990-2008, the rate of participation from this cohort was generally between 83% and 84%.
We have been below 83% for all of Obama’s presidency (January 2009 was 82.9%). 7 years into his presidency, we were still at 81%.
MM, you are not looking at the participation rate.
It should tell you something that we are at a low unemployment rate, but the proportion of 25-54 year olds working is NOT at a high.
Consider this (from your graph).
The proportion of people working from 25-54 is at or below the TROUGH of both prior recessions (post early-90’s, and post dotcom). Earlier years and eras were impacted by fewer two parents working.
The labor market is NOT in good shape right now…we are about where we were at the worst of the past 2 recessions.
And here’s just the men…
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060
Still working our way back up to the downward sloping trendline.
So, brief SF apartment anecdote.
A colleague is moving out of state, and so he needed to break his lease (which was on a new luxury SF apartment). When he moved in less than a year ago, he got 1 month free…the building is now advertising 1.5 months free. The building started leasing in Q1 2016 and is now about 90% leased.
The punch line is that within 5 days of him telling the landlord that he needed to break his lease, they found another tenant who will be paying more than he was paying (so he will be able to get out of his lease without paying $).
I expect lots of pain in the coming year as more apartments come online (tenants will hop from project to project to take advantage of the free rent), but I was surprised that it only took them 5 days to find a replacement tenant. I was more surprised that they are paying more than the tenant who is leaving.
I’m surprised they let him out of paying a fee for breaking the lease. From the stories I hear in San Jose they will fill it the next week but will charge you a month’s rent anyway.
Exactly, why leave money on the table?
Me too. I’m wondering if a better approach is to ask them if they would be able to rent the apartment for more if you were to leave early before telling them for sure you will be. Make it sound like you “would be willing” to leave early. If they agree, confirm there’s no penalty.
My understanding is that it is the landlords obligation to mitigate damages. Since the new tenant will move in pretty much immediately, and they are paying more in rent, there are no damages.
And if there are damages, they are probably too small to try to collect.
I don’t know if it is even legal to do what you describe (unless there are extenuating circumstances…like the free rent was contingent upon staying a whole year, etc.).
On the travel ban:
A friend is a naturalized US Citizen…recently completed the process; previously held a Syrian passport. Her parents hold US green cards, but are Saudi citizens. The travel ban affects their ability to travel to the US to visit her family (and grandkids, etc.).
She has absolutely no problem with the travel ban when it comes to revamping the vetting of new people from the countries listed.
She feels differently for those who already have gone through a process to a point of getting a US green card–I would probably feel the same way given her circumstances.
All that said, her feet are not sore from stomping them.
One of the issues that the PTB may be considering is ineffective vetting over past years.
I have a friend from Iran. He and his wife were over there for a funeral but came back before the travel ban. He did have to go to a couple other countries over there in order to visit a US embassy as his wife left her papers at the airport in the US. They are not pissed off, they want to become US citizens.
no thanks. traffic is bad as it is. the more we ban the better.
Iranian citizens have never carried out terrorist attacks against Americans in America. Saudis, on the other hand….
Kreightor.
ABQ, Tuscon or Boise? What town has a higher quality of life?
http://www.city-data.com/forum/city-vs-city/512414-albuquerque-nm-compared-tucson-az-2.html
uhg…. we will “lower the body count” if you build us some gyms.
Chicago is a joke. Cut off all aid until the killing stops.
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/02/01/donald-trump-ohio-pastor-chicago-gangs-violent-crime/
This is too precious not to share:
Russian trolls are suing their online propagandists factories for underpaid and lost wages, and winning. Bwah-ha-ha!
Sorry, the link’s in Russian. http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3207359
So are they government sponsored or just making money like the Nigerians offering you an opportunity to share in wealth by providing your routing numbers? If you can read about it in a link either it is the latter or Russia is not the totalitarian nation you claim it to be. Either way it does not logically suggest a Putin link to the false news.
No, no, no, these are the state-paid online propaganda factories.
You can get a grant from the government (state paid) and open a similar business. Plenty of money in the public budget for the right purpose.
Russia is not totalitarian yet. Authoritarian, yes, fully. The amount of “free press” they allow is miniscule (1-2% of total, LOL), and it’s allowed with this exact purpose, to show population and the West that “see, see! Russia is not totalitarian!”.
You didn’t know about these factories? The existence of these factories was confirmed by prior worker lawsuits, including the description of their work day, how much money they got paid per post, how many posts per day they had to write, how content was determined, what types of departments, etc… Pretty funny stuff.
There are significant monies in the budget for “patriotic informational services”, such as these.
I have read about similar factories, they were making money off clicks on advertisements. They did not care if they were creating false Clinton or Trump news as long as they could get someone to click on the advertisements. Throwing red meat to the zealots was their goal since that brought people to the sites.
These are different. These are not paid by ads. This is pure classic state-paid propaganda (disinformation and public opinion influence) machine.
Meanwhile, the Clinton News Network keeps spewing The Narrative and anti-Trump attacks demanded by its oligarch owners.
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/31/politics/european-union-trump/
What’s your preferred source of news?
I read from a wide variety, but am particularly partial to the UK papers like the Telegraph, Independent, and Guardian. Also like Zero Hedge, though am fully aware they are pushing an agenda.
Get the facts at zerohedge. Educate yourself Woman….
Pravda
So many contradictions that it would take a room of psychologists an entire career to unravel. Either that or one kid with a sling shot.
‘What’s to be done with all the used cars and trucks? The question was at the forefront of the 2017 National Automobile Dealers Association convention in New Orleans. Of concern for car and truck dealers is the glut of vehicles coming off leases this year, which will inevitably drive down prices for used vehicles. Their loss could be used-car buyers’ gain.’
“I think from [the automaker’s] perspective, that’s bad news,” Toyota Motor North America CEO Jim Lentz said at a roundtable with journalists Sunday. “From the consumer’s perspective, it’s pretty good news. There are going to be some great deals out there on certified used passenger cars.”
‘In 2016, wholesale used-vehicle prices went down for the first time since the last recession, dropping 4 percent, according to J.D. Power, and the slide is expected to continue this year. At the same time, average incentive spending on new vehicles—or the amount automakers spend on cutting deals with consumers to boost sales—hit an all-time high of $4001 last year. J.D. Power data says incentives are expected to continue to grow this year.’
“What that means, from a consumer standpoint, is that your new vehicle depreciates faster,” said Jonathan Banks, vice president of J.D. Power’s valuation services.’
‘Meanwhile, with more used cars and trucks coming on the market, and used-car prices falling accordingly, some automakers may have to spend even more on incentives to get people into new vehicles. “You get kind of a vicious circle between the two, which could be really bad, especially when you’re spending a lot of money,” Banks said. “So it’s a bit of a frightening situation, in my opinion.”
I’m not frightened!
My old used truck is getting kind of tired on NY winters.
Bring it on. I just hope this DOES come true. Really needing to upgrade in the next year or two.
“Really needing to upgrade in the next year or two.”
Ditto.
Another thing to consider: most of those leases are financed by the manufacturer. If used car prices are down, then when they sell the at end of lease car at an auction, they will probably sell it for less than the break even “residual value” that the lease is based on, and lose money on the lease.
Manufacturers have their backs against the wall with leases. Most consumers cannot afford to purchase the pricey wares automakers sell these days, with average prices in the mid 30’s and it’s only with potentially money losing leases that they can get howmuchamonth Harry to take one home.
Rents plunge in costliest US cities but soar in mid-tier cities (though not for long).
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/02/01/rents-plunge-in-costliest-u-s-cities-san-francisco-new-york-boston-soar-mid-tier-cities/
TRUMP TO MEXICO: TAKE CARE OF ‘BAD HOMBRES’ OR US MIGHT
BY VIVIAN SALAMA
ASSOCIATED PRESS
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump threatened in a phone call with his Mexican counterpart to send U.S. troops to stop “bad hombres down there” unless the Mexican military does more to control them, according to an excerpt of a transcript of the conversation obtained by The Associated Press.
The excerpt of the call did not make clear who exactly Trump considered “bad hombres,” - drug cartels, immigrants, or both - or the tone and context of the remark, made in a Friday morning phone call between the leaders. It also did not contain Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto’s response.
Still, the excerpt offers a rare and striking look at how the new president is conducting diplomacy behind closed doors. Trump’s remark suggest he is using the same tough and blunt talk with world leaders that he used to rally crowds on the campaign trail.
http://staging.hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_TRUMP_MEXICO?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2017-02-01-18-21-24
It also did not contain Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto’s response.
“Bugger off, you orange bully blob”?
These people wholeheartedly agree with your worldview MightyMike
TEACHER AT TRUMP PROTEST MUST SEE
Published on Jan 29, 2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIlsMKu67q0
Here was a reader comment in a Mexican newspaper:
“Estaria muy bien, que vinieran a hacer limpieza de escoria, nos harian un gran favor.”
“It would be very good, if they came to clean out the impurities (clean house), they’d be doing us a big favor”
“DOVER AIR FORCE BASE, Del. (AP) — Assuming the somber duties of commander in chief, President Donald Trump made an unannounced trip Wednesday to honor the returning remains of a U.S. Navy SEAL killed in a weekend raid in Yemen.
Chief Special Warfare Operator William “Ryan” Owens, a 36-year-old from Peoria, Illinois, was the first known U.S. combat casualty since Trump took office less than two weeks ago. More than half a dozen militant suspects were also killed in the raid on an al-Qaida compound and three other U.S. service members were wounded.
More than a dozen civilians were also killed in the operation, including the 8-year-old daughter of Anwar al-Awlaki, a radical cleric and U.S. citizen who was targeted and killed by a drone strike in 2011.”
God bless you President Trump for your respect of our soldiers. I do hope you will stop sending them so much.
We droned a US Citizen? No trial, no arrest, just an assassination. I can’t remember the protests.
Somehow I suspect violations of a Trump red line will result in very different consequences than the sternly worded notes that the Obama administration unleashed on countries like Syria and Iran when his red lines were ignored.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/01/this-oil-market-black-swan-may-emerge-as-flynn-puts-iran-on-notice.html
That’s actually a white swan, utterly expected.
Trump = Oil interests = Shit happens in Middle East
I can see Bannon running for president and winning big in 2020 against Democrats and Establishment Republicans who will have learned nothing from Trump’s rout of HillaryJeb.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/02/01/hill-establishment-republicans-nervous-bannons-influence/
Nah, looks to me like Bannon is the conservative version of Hillary. He might be the brains of the operation, but will never have the curb appeal needed.
“The one thing the Chinese fear more than America … they fear Christianity more than anything,”
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/steve-bannon-were-going-to-war-in-the-south-china-sea-no-doubt/ar-AAmwFbi
“You have an expansionist Islam and you have an expansionist China. Right? They are motivated. They’re arrogant. They’re on the march. And they think the Judeo-Christian west is on the retreat,”
This is why those who were peddling “Hillary is war” meme were full of crap.
Carmichael, CA Rental Rates Crater 10% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/carmichael-ca/home-values/
1:18 to 1:36 classic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PwTkx_uF4DM
Mighty I am sorry, at 3:27 this chick seems to haave tossed yo @ss out of the movement and although someone at 7:34 to 7:48 tried to dance you back in I believe in a court of law this video evidence should keep you from having to liquidate and pay reparations.
3:27 chick
“I want you to be the fuqe white and sit the fuqe back and echo what I say”
“You have fuqing privilege, you need to dismantle the system”
God Bless Donald Trump and God Bless the 3,084 of the country’s 3,141 counties or county equivalents in America that voted for him.
Another update on the sinking tower of San Francisco. A few good pictures of the garage which looks badly damaged, water flooding and cracking.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-01/who-will-pay-for-san-francisco-s-tilting-sinking-millennium-tower
“A decade after the first piles were drilled, walls in the underground parking garage have begun to crack due to the shifting, marble floors in the lobby have begun to buckle, and residents have complained that the ventilation units have begun to fail, raising questions about when the tilt will stop, or if it will stop at all.”
–
I think it’s safe to say, it’s a complete loss. It is worth zero.
I wonder what kind of insurance policy the contractor had…’cause that’s a big claim…
And likely a big fight between the architect, contractor, and City (some are trying to blame the project next door)…
Yes, but think of the money they didn’t throw away on rent.
There may be some people who put their life savings into an apartment there, but it seems more like just a bunch of rich people who can easily afford the loss. It won’t even make a dent in their finances. They will simply buy another 3 or 5 million dollar apartment somewhere else.
But, it is entertaining to watch that building crumble. Hopefully it doesn’t have a sudden failure and collapse without warning. That would not be as funny.
In the same story, Richard Baumert, a partner at the company, sounded a triumphant note. “We saw it through and in the end our plan and vision for the project were validated,” he said. The building’s appeal, he continued, was “not as much about the physical structure as the residential experience.”
Ah yes. Think of the residents’ solidarity forged over the shared experience of realizing the dwellings you paid millions for, are worth a fraction of that amount.
“The building’s appeal, he continued, was “not as much about the physical structure as the residential experience.””
LOL.
It’s on the verge of becoming an amazing experience.
I don’t get it. How can this be? The building was sold for $750 million, but it’s insured only for $200-250 million?
“By 2013 the building was fully sold for a reported total of $750 million”
“the developer is insured to cover some $100 million in damages caused by settlement or construction defects; the policy is split among several insurers. Ancillary policies held by the building’s architect, structural engineer, and general contractor are worth another $50 million to $100 million”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-01/who-will-pay-for-san-francisco-s-tilting-sinking-millennium-tower
Maybe the Russians had something to do with it.
Putin’s Russians usually get themselves involved in coup-d’etat attempts, not small potatoes construction fraud.
Like this:
“Serbia deports Russians suspected of plotting Montenegro coup. The plotters were allegedly going to dress in police uniforms to storm the Montenegrin parliament in Podgorica, shoot the prime minister, Milo Ðjukanović, and install a pro-Moscow party.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/11/serbia-deports-russians-suspected-of-plotting-montenegro-coup
The cost of construction was less than $750MM, and the expected claims were probably far less than 100% of construction cost.
Good point. I’m trying to understand how does insurance for large buildings work? If you buy a house, you’d insure it. Commercial RE is similarly insured (e.g., when Twin Towers fell they were insured).
The building is owned by the homeowners association. How come it was under-insured?
No, it’s definitely not worth zero. And believe it or not, but it is very likely that the foundation can be stabilized by adding new pilings down to firm ground beneath the fill. I talked with the structural engineer at work today (who knows one of the ones referenced in the article) about this.
What you should really be focused on is the paragraph where it states that the CITY of SFO and the builder both signed non-disclosure agreements waaaaay back in 2009 that they would both keep their mouths shut about the sinking foundation.
The city is corrupt to the core. The next earthquake can’t come soon enough.
That’s cool redmondjp. Thanks.
I’m no structural engineer, but after watching this for the past several months, every time — the “experts” keep saying: “No, there’s no problem, no problem here”, and yet the problem keeps getting worse.
Maybe they can fix it, but I would never buy a property in that building even if I were among the super-rich. It’s tainted.
Oh it’s a Yuuuuuge problem no doubt! I’m just saying that I think they will be able to fix it. Probably $10-20M to do it and they may have to come up with some low-profile equipment to do the work inside the parking garage.
What I want to know is how they were able to keep the utility connections intact since the building has already dropped 16″.
And you have to look at this situation this way: if this problem is permanently fixed, those condos will be worth a lot more than they are now, so it might be worth the gamble to buy one or more now.
It would be a gamble.
First, you’d have to trust the engineers to say, “It is permanently fixed”. Would you trust them? Then, if you believe them…
To verify, even if you did — you’d have to wait *another* few years to see if it kept sinking to see if the fix worked. Years.
But again, it’s only rich people, they can afford to just buy some other place.
A part of me thinks that building is a wider metaphor for many things.
I find the casual dismissal of “it’s only rich people” very troubling. In the article, there were examples of those who bought into the building. They were people who led productive lives and worked very hard for their nesteggs, and who cannot afford to lose it all.
It’s easy to blame the victims. Don’t let your envy blind you to injustice.