Buyers Are Waiting For Pricing To Meet Their Expectations
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “The number of foreclosures in Denver has been steadily decreasing since the height of the housing crisis and recession, but that trend reversed slightly in 2016. The city processed 720 new foreclosure cases last year, according to data from the Denver Office of the Clerk and Recorder. That’s an increase of about 4.35 percent over 2015. Clerk and Recorder Debra Johnson said it’s hard to tell if the slight bump in foreclosure numbers is indicative of a new trend. ‘We really don’t know the cause and effect of this,’ Johnson said.”
“If you’re selling a high-end condominium in Miami-Dade County, it’s time to slash that price tag. The county’s million-dollar-plus condo inventory has soared past its pre-recession peak, according to a report by Esslinger Wooten Maxwell Inc. About 2,550 units were listed for sale at the end of January compared with the previous record of 1,850 units at the end of 2006. At the current average sales pace of 47 units per month, it would take 4½ years to sell out of the current supply, which does not include the 1,215 units that were taking reservations last October. Another 14,000 units are proposed, according to Miami’s Downtown Development Authority.”
“Those who can afford a tony condo will have plenty to choose from. About 130 units priced above $1 million have hit the market over the past month. ‘Buyers that are on the sidelines right now are waiting for our pricing to meet their expectations,’ said EWM president and CEO Ron Shuffield.”
“Sellers of Hamptons mansions are having to slash prices to secure sales as the glitzy summer hot spot’s luxury housing market continues to cool. The median price for luxury homes sold in the Hamptons (the top 10% of sales) dropped almost 30% to $5.85 million in the final three months of 2016 compared with a year earlier, according to Douglas Elliman Real Estate and appraisal firm Miller Samuel. In another sign of how much sellers are struggling, the listing discount—the change from final listing price to contract price—jumped to 15.7%, from 11.7% a year earlier as some sellers in the Hamptons have been left with little choice but to reduce prices because of growing supply and less demand.”
“Listing inventory increased more than 20% to 250 amid a lot of speculative development, while sales slid 14.5% to 53, according to the report. In the $5 million-plus market, sales tumbled 40%. While many of those who sold their homes in the last quarter were willing to come down on prices, there are some ‘who still haven’t got the memo’ that the market is not as hot as it used to be, resulting in their homes languishing on the market, according to Jonathan Miller, the chief executive of Miller Samuel and author of the report.”
“Hailed four years ago as leading Canada’s hottest housing market, Calgary condominium developers are now facing the highest unsold inventory in 16 years as low oil prices sink sales in Alberta’s biggest city. And the condo inventory is rising. According to Calvin Buss, principal of Buss Marketing, three out of four condo projects that have come across his desk in recent months have been converted to rental developments. But Calgary’s slumping rental market offers scant shelter, said Shamon Kureshi, president and CEO of Hope Street Real Estate Corp., a major Calgary property management firm.”
“‘Times are hard for every single landlord with whom I’ve spoken in the past eight to 12 months. Empty rental properties abound, and no obvious solution to the province’s empty rental property phenomenon exists,’ Kureshi said. Kuershi added that his company’s research of smaller rental properties shows that 37% of Calgary’s rental units are empty, or nearly 3,000 vacant units. Landlords are getting nailed, Kureshi said. ‘These [vacant] homes show an average rental rate of $1,477, therefore private Calgary landlords [cumulatively] are losing $4,431,044 per month or $147,700 per day.’”
“House prices and rents in Abu Dhabi are set to maintain a downward trend this year as the fallout from the recent oil price drop continues to affect the market. Property broker Core Savills said that price and rent falls would be particularly marked on Reem Island where another 2,400 homes are expected to come to the market this year. ‘This glut in supply will be hard to absorb and is expected to cause a sharp drop in both rentals and sales values in Reem Island area,’ said David Godchaux, its chief executive. ‘Contractions in housing allowances and disposable incomes coupled with the growing inflation rate have led to a steep downward adjustment on the demand for both residential and commercial real estate.’”
“The Bank of Japan has seen decidedly mixed results from its negative-rate policy announced a year ago. Something of a minibubble is developing in the rental property market amid ultralow interest rates, gung-ho lenders, and tax incentives. Rental housing starts are estimated to have topped 400,000 in 2016, the highest in eight years. Nagano Prefecture saw a nearly 40% jump from 2015. But ‘a surplus of apartments is emerging due to oversupply,’ a real estate insider in the city of Nagano said. The nation’s rental property market may suddenly cool if higher vacancy rates and declining rents become the norm.”
“After giving up on transforming his fortunes in one of China’s modern cities, Zhang Zhihao has returned for good to the grimy, rural village he calls home for Lunar New Year. He is among thousands leaving the country’s major cities for the final time, as a slowing economy leaves little chance of achieving what leaders have termed the ‘Chinese Dream’. Stalling wages and the relocation of many factories abroad has raised uncertainty for many migrants, including the young carpenter who has put down his tools for the last time as he seeks farm work in the village where he was born.”
“‘I earned only 200 yuan (£24) a day at a furniture factory, and if I didn’t work on a certain day, then I got nothing,’ said Mr Zhang. ‘China’s economic problems have deeply affected people like me. Lots of companies have shut down in Beijing, so there are not many places left to work.’”
“Festinger’s 1957 theory of cognitive dissonance notes that individuals seek consistency in their cognitions (beliefs) so they tend to twist facts to remove any conflict (dissonance). REITs now seem to be suffering from ‘valuation dissonance’. You know the game is up when equity markets don’t believe property valuations any more and REITs don’t buy their own deeply discounted stock - either corporately or personally. REITs are selling the assets they can afford to in order to de-gear and are now top-slicing development risk by driving leasing volumes ahead of values.”
“Real estate pricing has become a capital market event, the Bank of England has cut economic growth rate forecasts and the lazy man’s property risk premium is there for good reason. Notwithstanding that bond markets are artificially illiquid, real estate is more macro-prudential than inflation-driven and excess liquidity has led to real estate being mispriced, with abundant capital compounding market vulnerability.”
“Foreign money will withdraw and the UK commercial real estate market is now in a parlous state, having become overly dependent on inflows of foreign capital. REITs have become used to cheap capital but conditions are reverting to normal. The scene is set for a toxic shock with falling rents and rising yields - and landlords probably won’t capture the growth embedded in their asset valuations.”
“The UK REIT sector looks cheap but isn’t good value with a prevailing 17% discount a mirage as the NAVs risk over-reporting positive evidence. Rushing into REITs now could make the Charge of the Light Brigade look like a rational military manoeuvre.”
‘it’s hard to tell if the slight bump in foreclosure numbers is indicative of a new trend. ‘We really don’t know the cause and effect of this’
This was an interesting week. We had two reports of increases in foreclosures not related to a years ago period and the first non-energy related apartment default.
So I guess the homes that are finally being foreclosed in 2017 reached a level of value to the bank, so that they don’t lose money. In some cases, they’re probably making a profit!
Kick the can, make money!
“We had two reports of increases in foreclosures not related to a years ago period…”
I wonder why the resident housing bulls didn’t jump on that one?
Way too early in the cycle. I learned that lessonin November 2007. There were much better deals made in 2008-11.
I am holding out to buy a San Diego condo 2020!
‘He is among thousands leaving the country’s major cities for the final time, as a slowing economy’
More crow for Dan.
6.5% growth for China predicted by I believe the World Bank is hardly crow.
You are apparently the one and only person on the planet that believes in their numbers. Read the article and weep crow breath.
crow breath ??
LOL…Have not seen that one before Ben…
They are the IMF and World Bank numbers, they may not exact but they are far from a collapse which many predicted on this board, all they can do is decide what Chinese style of cooking they want the crow.
How do you like these here numbers, AB Dan? Housing sales in Shenzhen slumped (more like crashed) 70% in January.
http://www.scmp.com/business/article/2067876/chinas-housing-market-cools-january-policy-tightening-measures-take-effect
If there was even 6% GDP, there wouldn’t be thousands leaving Beijing hat in hand to go back to the farm. Oh, and there goes your filling up the empty cities with farm workers thing. Waiter, another round of crow for the man from New Mexico!
Look at the per capita income projections, really interesting to compare Brazil and China, Brazil did collapse as I predicted. In any economy there are winner and losers even in a growing economy. If you worked in textile mills, you are losing your jobs, if that is all you know it is hard to find a new job. The new economy has the rapid growth in China not the old. Not all of America has done as bad as the city of Detroit. If you just look at how Detroit has done it would give you a false picture of the U.S. It is not me that needs to own up to eating crow.
Hey Dan, when once again you are proved completely wrong, as you were with your oil calls, are you going to skulk off again from the HBB under cover of darkness to eat your crow in solitude?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
Completely wrong oil call? More wrong than the large number of people on this board who were calling for oil in the teens or ten dollars a barrel? Oil is higher than when I made the call and is projected to go even higher. Timing was wrong, direction was right but I predict oil hitting $100 a barrel is more likely than a housing collapse in the next four years.
Chinese housing didn’t cool due to economic contraction they cooled due to government intervention, different rules over there. If it wants a surge in housing the government just needs to change the rules back to the prior rules. I do not think such heavy handed intervention is the best way to maximize GDP growth, but the government certainly has achieved great success since 1979
The question still stands. Skulk away, or stand and deliver?
I am delivering. Look this is an intelligent board and I do not know why most can not see the obvious. China uses the housing market to smooth out the economy and not to undershoot or overshoot its growth targets. When the economy is undershooting it loosens requirements to buy a house. When it is overshooting as it did in the fourth quarter it tightens requirements. There just is no sign that China is losing control of its managed economy.
Timing was wrong, direction was right but I predict oil hitting $100 a barrel is more likely than a housing collapse in the next four years.
And I mean a U.S. national collapse not a collapse in the Silicon Valley which I think is very likely.
When pre-ordering your crow, do you prefer roasted, baked, or pan-fried?
Sorry I do not have your experience with eating crow so I defer to you.
Golly it’s just like deja vu again!
A week or so ago, A-Dan said he would not be on the board much the next few months. What changed ?! You’re here every day now, lol
It’s addictive.
A-Dan’s about to go on his sabbatical?
It’s addictive.
Yes, it is like meth. I am bored at a conference.
And I mean a U.S. national collapse not a collapse in the Silicon Valley which I think is very likely.”
why ?
Income to value of houses very low, high tech companies in a bubble of their own.
Debt fueled Mal-investments. It goes only one way…eventually.
Income to value of houses very low, high tech companies in a bubble of their own.
Large numbers of homes way beyond GSE levels…because piggie back loans are not back, purchases have real cash down payments.
Large numbers of homes way beyond GSE levels…because piggie back loans are not back, purchases have real cash down payments.
It is amazing how quickly that “way beyond GSE levels” can change. The real cash down payments is one of the reasons I do not think we have a national bubble.
“Yes, it is like meth. I am bored at a conference.”
Posting here is far easier on the teeth.
Wait…I thought it was 8% growth forever in China? And $60+ oil by when was it…December 2015?
It was $80.
“little chance of achieving what leaders have termed the ‘Chinese Dream’
I wouldn’t be placing any bets on their steel mills just yet.
China’s economy is on its knees and their debt exceeds the combined total debt of the entire globe. China is a disaster.
…..and don’t they have 300 million foreclosed, empty and abandoned houses? HA!
Empty rental properties abound, and no obvious solution to the province’s empty rental property phenomenon exists,’ Kureshi said.
The obvious solution is recognize that true price discovery has asserted itself, and to lower rents and property asking prices accordingly.
true price discovery has asserted itself, and to lower rents and property asking prices accordingly ??
Econ 101 Chapter #3…Price discovery goes both directions…
Given the current environment of collapsing demand, we know where the ceiling is. The floor? Not so much.
‘‘Times are hard for every single landlord with whom I’ve spoken in the past eight to 12 months. Empty rental properties abound, and no obvious solution to the province’s empty rental property phenomenon exists,’ Kureshi said.’
Ohh, I know! I’ll stand around in the snow and pick up these bargains at an auction, rent them out and sell years later for big moolah, like you guys did in Phoenix. Wait, nobody wants to be in Calgary. It’s too cold and there’s no work. You say you have a house in Phoenix to sell? I happen to know you need the money.
The title for this article is “Calgary’s new condo market craters”. Contrast it to this:
‘Hailed four years ago as leading Canada’s hottest housing market’
Yes folks, that says it all. People were giddy with excitement about: Calgary! Just like they were gushing about Dallas in 1980. Remember all the goofy talk about Miami and Manhattan real estate? That wasn’t even that long ago.
But…but…
Get on the property ladder…
Real estate only goes up!
True price discovery = the graveyard of Keynesian dreams.
I’m getting the feeling we won’t be standing around together years from now still asking each other when the bubble is finally going to implode.
‘GoPro shares plummet after ugly earnings report’
Some comments:
‘I myself, never leave the house without a camera strapped to my head, with my google glasses on, and my Apple watch. Of course, I’m using the GPS app on my cellphone to find my way to the car.’
‘people finally caught on to being ripped off spending $400-$700 for a silly little camera.’
‘Bought the 3+ for my son a couple years ago we all enjoyed the family vacation and action videos. The novelty wore off. It’s a great camera but like most no reason to purchase a new Go Pro.’
Neighbors of mine in Rancho Mirage are from Calgary. A few years ago they were mentioning how they were purchasing rentals in Calgary. The home they purchased in Rancho Mirage was a foreclosure bought in 2011. They just unloaded Rancho Mirage probably to feed the alligator in Calgary.
Probably did very well in Rancho Mirage, particularly with a 30% boost the US/Canada exchange rate!
Great read.
–
Trump’s Political Blitzkrieg
February 3, 2017 - By Fay Voshell
Over the last eight years, the Left has taken the offensive continually while Republicans either capitulated, cooperated, procrastinated, or employed purely defensive maneuvers that amounted to a finger in the dam.
How things have changed.
It’s been barely two weeks since Donald Trump has taken office and Democrats are facing a political blitzkrieg. They are grappling for the means to handle the assault, as the party of the Left has long thought it had total control of both the narrative and the battles.
Stunned political operatives like Nancy Pelosi don’t recognize President Trump is not interested in guerilla warfare tactics, but has put into effect a broad-based offensive against the very citadels of liberal power and bloated government.
Democrats are unused to a total war offensive, as they have relied on relentless guerilla warfare and the long march. They are even more unused to being on the defensive, and are ill-prepared to fight defensively. They are aghast over the Trump tactics being applied against them, are assuming the old weapons once applied so effectively against their political enemies still work.
In like manner, Democrats are still hauling out old and worn out tropes from the 1960s, weapons that won victories and intimidated the opposition for two generations. But the old tactics are obsolete and increasingly prove to be virtually useless. Millions of Americans have repudiated the orthodox liturgy of the Left, wedded as it is to constant and relentless battles about race, diversity, open borders, and globalism. Millions are also sick and tired of being labeled heretics by radical Democrats who constantly dismiss decent and basically charitable Americans as haters, homophobes, misogynists, and bitter clingers to “guns and religion.”
Not many Democrats realize the most powerful weapon they have employed over the last two generations; namely the mainstream media, is now as obsolete as the Maginot Line. For decades, the Left’s Maginot Line has had its guns pointed in one direction — against those who have opposed liberalism’s excesses and who have and still are resisting its long march through major American institutions — citadels such as academia and the Church.
The fact is that millions of Americans do not want the fundamental transformation desired by the Left. They want an America transformed by fundamentals — the fundamentals that have been and still are the bedrock of American society; namely, constitutional law and adherence to the Bill of Rights.
At the heart of the Trump political blitzkrieg is the core belief that America has been going down the wrong path for many years and that it is urgent that the ship of state be turned around before it sinks into the vortex created by extremists.
My pants are stained yellow and there ain’t a cloud in the sky.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kellyanne-conway-admits-%e2%80%98bowling-green-massacre%e2%80%99-error/ar-AAmAuBc
Hard to blame her.
There have been so many muslim attacks and killings to institute Sharia they are hard to keep straight…
And disappear from the legacy fake media memroy very quickly.
At least she admitted her error. She’s taking a risk there. The president may see that as weakness.
“Error.” Right.
That’s more right wing crackpot nonsense.
Millions of Americans have repudiated the orthodox liturgy of the Left, wedded as it is to constant and relentless battles about race, diversity, open borders, and globalism. Millions are also sick and tired of being labeled heretics by radical Democrats who constantly dismiss decent and basically charitable Americans as haters, homophobes, misogynists, and bitter clingers to “guns and religion.”
It’s true that millions of people don’t like the Left, but Hillary got three million more votes than Trump. Also, the writer should step forward and give some examples of individuals who have been falsely accused of homophobia or misogyny. Or if she thinks that there’s nothing wrong with homophobia or misogyny, she should just state that explicitly.
Thanks for the talking points, Mike:
- ignoring the Electoral College
- Trump and homophobia?
Now that last one is a laugh riot.
Trump is the LGBTQ’s best friend - he wants to keep people out of this country that want to throw them off of the nearest tall building.
I wasn’t referring to Trump. I was referring to the writer of this article. She, in turn, stated that “millions of Americans do not want the fundamental transformation desired by the Left”.
She also falsely implies that “fundamental transformation desired by the Left” has to do exclusively with “race, diversity, open borders, and globalism”.
She doesn’t get that it’s about everybody’s liberty and basic human freedom.
Actually, she doesn’t say what she means by “fundamental transformation desired by the Left” at all. However, opinion polls indicate that much of Bernie Sanders’ platform was preferred by the population.
“She doesn’t get that it’s about everybody’s liberty and basic human freedom.”
Like the left’s desire to uphold the first amendment at Berkeley?
Exactly, the left does not seem to understand that many of them would be the first to have their heads chopped off. The Christians if they submit to paying an extra tax will survive since their lifestyles would not call for execution.
If the left hates guns so much what will they do if Trump goes Stalin and rounds them all up and does what Stalin did ?
I don’t this will happen but think about it ?
Hillary knew the rules of the election. She got 3 million votes where she didn’t need it but couldn’t get 100,000 votes where she *did* need it — while ignoring cries of help from state parties rust belt and the advice of her politically savvy husband.
Examples of individual who were wrongly accused of misogyny? Well, there’s Milo for one. And anyone who points out that there isn’t much of a gender wage gap.
That affects the outcome of the election, the more important issue. However, if the topic is what millions of people voted for, the verdict is the opposite.
I have a feeling that you can find plenty of evidence of Milo’s misogyny if some effort was made. Though I doubt that this writer is stamping her little feet and crying about Milo’s mistreatment.
And anyone who points out that there isn’t much of a gender wage gap.
http://www.businessinsider.com/harvard-economist-explains-the-gender-wage-gap-2016-3
I don’t want to put words in the female Harvard Economists mouth, but effectively what she is saying is that a meaningful part of the wage disparity is due to women disproportionately taking on duties like motherhood/caregiver, which results in them working more flexible schedules/fewer hours.
“You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic — you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that.”
Do you believe that the above accusation contributed to the speaker losing the election? It covered around 30 million people. It was, in its own way, as bad as Romney’s 2012 comment about the 47% of the electorate who allegedly would never vote for him.
Thirty million is fewer than one out of ten Americans. So it’s not unreasonable. If may have hurt Secretary Clinton in the election, but that’s another matter.
That kind of conclusion is the flip side of the “free s__t army” commentary that gets posted here occasionally. Yes, there are bigots. Yes, there are people who work the system and have no interest in employment. But the numbers of both are exaggerated for partisan purposes. Was Romney’s comment not unreasonable?
And certainly it does not help that there are those who define bigotry in a very expansive way. Is saying “I want the immigration laws to be enforced” a bigoted statement? Is asking where someone is from a bigoted question? Is refusing to use made-up pronouns a bigoted act?
When I said that it’s reasonable, I mean that it’s accurate. In fact, one out of ten is probably an underestimate.
Romney’s remark was accurate at the time. Of course, the interesting thing is that Republicans sometimes complain about all of the different kinds of taxes thatt hey have to pay - payroll taxes, sales taxes, property taxes, etc. Many of the people that he was talking about pay quite a bit of tax, just not federal income tax. And, of course, we need to mention that, for the purposes of discussing his remarks, Social Security and Medicare taxes are not considered to be federal income taxes, even though they are federal taxes levied on workers’ incomes.
The other thing that he got wrong was the implication that none of those 47% would vote for him. Many of that group are senior citizens who routinely vote Republican.
While we’re at it, that 47% number is a result of Republican policies. Back when Reagan was pushing through his big tax cuts, he would often make a statement as he signed the legislation. It would be something along the lines of “Today we’re cutting taxes for American worker who pays federal income taxes. As a matter of fact, we’re removing X million families from the tax rolls completely!” The same thing might have happened when George W. Bush pushed through tax cuts. Years later Romney came along and complained about all of the people who didn’t federal income tax.
Yes, combined with the fact that she changed how she spoke depending on who she was speaking to–felt disingenuous.
Trump on the other hand was pretty much exactly the same wherever he went. Same rhetoric, etc.
You may think he’s an a-hole, but he’s a genuine a-hole.
He’s a reality star, which means an “authentic phony”.
Don’t confuse it with true candor.
He’s a reality star
And the Reality is that he is the president. The reality is that fewer people vote for the Democrats each year despite the racial demographics being more favorable.
And the Reality is that he is a pathological liar.
“…Democrats who constantly dismiss decent and basically charitable Americans as haters, homophobes, misogynists, and bitter clingers to “guns and religion.” ”
THIS !!!!!
“At the heart of the Trump political blitzkrieg is the core belief that America has been going down the wrong path for many years and that it is urgent that the ship of state be turned around before it sinks into the vortex created by extremists.”
At the heart of the Trump political blitzkrieg is LYING about stuff that really isn’t very important and so easily proven false.
What are y’all gonna say when they make the yellowcake-from-Niger accusation?
“Blitzkrieg”
Is anyone who reads and posts here familiar with the origin or meaning of that word?
Sure, German strategy starting with the invation of Poland in 1939.
It’s a degeneration of the Blitzkegger, which was what my old Fraternity parties were.
Still not sick of winning
Hardly a hard landing, exactly what I predicted a slow decline in the rate of growth which will shortly result in China being the largest economy in the world not just on a PPP basis which is already is, but on a dollar basis. If you underestimate the Chinese economy, you underestimate the potential military threat to this country.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-01/23/c_136006996.htm
“exactly what I predicted”
Wow Dan, you are amazingly consistent in the face of a mountain of contrary evidence.
I think you are making a mountain out of a molehill. The CIA numbers show that if anything Chinese growth has been underestimated.
A few years ago we were hearing that their debt bubble was $25 Trillion. I haven’t heard any recent estimates. Sure you can build some impressive stuff with that kind of money, but it is resting on muck. That’s no molehill.
To tell you the truth, I’ve been rather biased about these Chinese since they sent 30 million into the hills to starve when I was young.
I think it is $28 trillion now, but it is dwarfed by the internal savings. Like always you need to look not just at debt but assets.
It was brutal and many of the leaders today would be willing to do the same today if they had control. However, I fundamentally believe it is a major mistake to underestimate your enemies strength even if you detest your enemy. It has led to many defeats. One of the reasons the civil war happened was both sides underestimated the strength of the other side. Both sides thought it would be a short war with their side winning easily. A realistic view might have avoided the war and led to a political compromise that still would have ended slavery but with compensation to the South. If would have been far cheaper in blood and treasure.
Dan and his dolls from China. C’mon Dan, China is a powder keg.
http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2001879/chinas-economic-reality-lies-buried-beneath-stream-meaningless
Finally, the Chinese like Japanese twenty years ago owe the debt to themselves, countries that collapse have large external debts, like we do have, thanks Obama and Bush:
http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html
External debt of China:
http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html
I remember Reagan tripling the deficit and did we ever pay for WW2?
a ~century of debt.
Attitude, the article is not about GDP and it is really showing how much stronger China is than the numbers show in terms of foreign reserves, the key part of the article:
I hear your objection to all of this analysis, however. It is that the mainland’s foreign reserves have held steady at just over US$3.2 trillion since the end of last year. Surely these reserves would have plummeted with record capital outflows, would they not?
Surely not. All it takes is a big trade surplus that stays abroad instead of being paid back into the mainland. This counts as capital outflow. The rest of the balance of payments can stay pretty much in balance then with foreign reserves unchanged and yet the net effect is a big outflow.
Actually, this was my point a few days ago when I think Ben was stating how long can money pour out of China and I said that it was not a finite amount, the trade surplus allowed it to continue for quite a while.
Other key part and it shows that basically Chinese can buy over $600 billion in real estate outside of China this year and not diminish the foreign reserves, note trade surplus at record levels:
The mainland’s trade surplus at the moment is running at a record US$617 billion a year. And guess what. It stays abroad at the moment.
All technical, I know. But that’s the money trade and that’s how it works.
“Hardly a hard landing, exactly what I predicted…”
I precinct 100% more HBB posts per day when Albuquerquedan is attending a boring conference.
Vancouver home sales plunge 40% — and now prices are beginning to follow
Garry Marr | February 2, 2017 3:06 PM ET
Existing home sales in Metro Vancouver fell almost 40 per cent in January from a year ago and prices are beginning to follow.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said Thursday there were 1,523 sales in January 2017, down from 2,519 sales a year ago and a drop of 11.1 per cent from the 1,714 sales in December. The January sales figures were 10.3 per cent below the 10-year average for the month.
In terms of prices, the board said its MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver was $896,000 in January, a 3.7 per cent decline over the past six months and a 0.2 per cent drop from December, 2016.
“From a real estate perspective, it’s a lukewarm start to the year compared to 2016,” Dan Morrison, president of the board, said in a statement. “While we saw near record-breaking sales at this time last year, home buyers and sellers are more reluctant to engage so far in 2017.”
The falling numbers come as Vancouver continues to grapple with the impact of a 15 per cent foreign property transfer tax the province began imposing in August. Last month, the British Columbia premier, Christy Clark, backtracked on her foreign tax by saying foreigners with work permits who live and work in B.C. would be exempted.
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/vancouver-home-sales-plunge-40-and-prices-are-beginning-to-follow
Multiply by 40:1 leverage…
It is going to get very ugly.
Vancouver, Seattle, Dallas, Miami, NYC, San Francisco, Washington DC. Too many houses and no buyers.
Not Dallas….
Not Seattle. I’m following one house in Bellevue right now - was put on the MLS at 1am - by 5pm the same day: 29 showings. It’s madness.
Dallas and Seattle too my friends.
House down the road from me in Frisco. 25+ offers on 350K house ….yeah keep dreaming and wishing lol.
oh yeah the office buildings havent even opened up yet
That and a dollar gets you a cup of coffee my friend.
Bluffview Dallas, TX Housing Prices Crater 13% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/bluffview-dallas-tx/home-values/
Didn’t they restrict foreign (mainly Chinese) buying by introducing nonresident taxes?
Good for them.
NAFTA benefited Mexico’s corporations and agribusiness but was devastating to its small farmers. Now al-Jazeera reports what you’ll never see in the MSM: a lot of Mexican small farmers are cheering for Trump.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/02/mexicans-left-nafta-opportunity-trump-170201073233264.html
In Colorado reports that Mexican farmers are barred from owning more than 15 (150?) hectares of land, so almost all farmers are small farmers who can’t compete with the American economy of scale. Why hasn’t Mexico changed this law? It seems like it would help out some Mexicans.
because they hate and fear the rich so much to don’t want rich people. even though it’s to their own detriment.
The Mexican Revolution (1910 - 1920) was all about land ownership. “Tierra y Libertad!” (Land and Liberty) was Zapata’s call to arms.
Before the revolution land ownership was in the hands of the Mexican elite. Single individuals owned estates that were thousands of miles in size (They were called latifundios).
When the Revolution’s dust finally settled a political party that would eventually become the PRI rose and a new constitution was written. The new constitution expressly restricted land ownership in Mexico. The latifundios were confiscated and ejidos were formed in their place.
Thanks, Colo. Maybe the Mexicans can still do some larger-scale farming by cash-renting land from the neighbors.
Any thoughts on the repeal of Dodd Frank, and how it would relate to housing in 2017 and beyond?
Hopefully the number he intends to do on Dodd Frank involves bringing back Glass Stegall. We’ll see how true he stays to his pre election populist message.
Did he ever mention anything about that subject pre election?
Yes, it was also included in the Repub Party platform.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/19/glass-steagall-wall-street-is-not-happy-with-donald-trump.html
glass stegall was 37 pages
trump will make it 2
He’ll try to get it down to 140 characters.
+1. Good joke for once. We should have a tweet contest!
“Couple checking acct with invest banking was a DISASTER. Folks, split with evil MBS. Will be TERRIFIC for business and MAGA!!”
I just saw that the POTUS tweeted this early in the morning:
Professional anarchists, thugs and paid protesters are proving the point of the millions of people who voted to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
It makes you wonder if Bill in LA got his degree or certificate in anarchy, or if he is merely an amateur anarchist.
Compared to 45, 43 looks like a very smart guy.
Wishful thinking is soon to give way to much bedwetting over broken campaign promises.
What Trump really needs to do:
Get government OUT of the business of guaranteeing bank loans to include mortgages and student loans.
If a bank makes a bad loan - they eat the losses.
No more too big to fail. No more bailouts.
Jail for fraud and law breaking for bank executives
Enforce GAAP
Bring back Glass–Steagall
NA GA HA
As usual Trump will chose wars instead.
as usual?
What wars has Trump started?
He IS trying to stop one with Russia.
Which the fake legacy media and democrats are screaming mad about…
2 weeks in office, already approved Yemeni raid killing innocents.
Get your head out of the orange a$$!
Trump did not force an unwilling SEAL team into a dangerous raid. He was approving what the military said should be done.
And the mission was started under the previous president Obama.
Wars are a useful diversion of the populace’s attention away from unchecked financial shenanigans and plunder.
I agree with all of that - well stated
Yes, good list.
Sounds great! Will it happen?
Under Hillary or democrats - ZERO CHANCE
Under Trump - there is a moderate chance
I will take those odds..
I agree with most of the concepts, but I’d like to make exceptions for high-value low risk incentives.
I see nothing wrong with the government guaranteeing really good mortgages: 20% down, 28% debt, high FICO etc. But crap like smelly mel FHA, second homes, or $$ for value-added luxurizing of Grade B has got to stop.
I also think the government could guarantee students loans for in-demand majors, for two-year tech and trade, and as scholarships for merit students and require B average.
Surely there wouldn’t be too much objection to that.
I see nothing wrong with the government guaranteeing really good mortgages: 20% down, 28% debt, high FICO etc. But crap like smelly mel FHA, second homes, or $$ for value-added luxurizing of Grade B has got to stop.
If the loans are safe, there is no reason for the government to be involved at all. That’s the fallacy in the statement.
I like simple solutions.
I support a 0.25% per quarter required increase in down payments to qualify for government backing. Boil the frog slowly, give the market time to respond with private lending sources. Every quarter that goes by, the loans the government backs become safer and safer, until the government backing effectively goes away completely.
Dodd Frank was a “kitchen sink” list of items that resulted in something like 400 rules that impacted FAR, FAR, FAR more than the mortgage market.
The big question is whether Trump discards all the rules altogether, or, like the ACA, only scraps select pieces.
For example, what got us into trouble were people using leverage excessively and without regard to proper underwriting. However, parts of Dodd Frank impacted organizations that don’t use debt at all.
I hope he doesn’t scrap it all…but the breadth of the regulation was a massive overreach. If he does scrap it all, I suspect there will be meaningful lowering of underwriting standards over the coming few years for mortgages.
I don’t think Trump or his team of idiots have any clue. Only thing they know is war.
There seems to be only one note in your trumpet.
Yep. War’s a pretty big deal, no?
Yes all that violence from the left every night
Obama ordered 526 drone strikes killing up to 117 civilians (that the US will admit to). That was 10x Bush.
Where was your outrage?
My outrage are evident in the archives.
How many more do you want to kill? When will you say enough is enough?
killing up to 117 civilians (that the US will admit to). That was 10x Bush.
You think that less than 12 civilians perished in Iraq war? Or less than 117?
So the bottom line is little change when it comes to war. Thus, those who voted for Trump in the hope of less war will probably be disappointed.
The sensible thing would have been to disregard foreign policy when choosing how to vote.
10x refers to the drone strike number.
Stop pivoting from my question…where were your screams of protest?
Screams of protest over what exactly?
Screams of protest over what exactly?
you have the attention span of a sparrow.
You have debating skills of a deflecting party hack.
deflecting is mostly what you do. it’s what low-brow people do when they don’t know how to answer a question.
“protest over what exactly?” give me a break..
“Screams of protest over what exactly?”
Screams over the killing of civilians by Obama.
Trump has ordered a single mission utilizing our best, most professional special forces team. This is the closest thing we have to a military scalpel. In that mission, which, according to the NY Times, was planned for a moonless night (which Obama didn’t have until after his term was up), 14 terrorists were killed, there were civilian casualties, along with one Navy SEAL.
Obama ordered a similar raid, which ended with the death of OBL, and capture of intelligence. Going into that raid, they estimated that UP TO A DOZEN civilians could be killed, and Obama moved ahead anyway.
And how many victory laps did he take, conducting a very similar mission, taking similar risks? In that case, DevGru was successful (as far as I understand) in killing bad guys, and no innocents–but that was far from assured when the attack was ordered.
Yet at the same time, Obama used one of our more blunt instruments (drone strikes) over 500 times, which according to the US government, killed more than a hundred civilians (non-government investigations put the number between about 400 and 800 civilians), with few complaints from those who voted “D” on their ballots.
Yet comments like “all Trump’s team knows is war” continue to be made.
Blah-insult-blah-insult-blah.
Sad.
Blah-insult-blah-insult-blah.
Above, I was quoting tj.
Screams over the killing of civilians by Obama.
Trump has ordered a single mission utilizing our best, most professional special forces team. This is the closest thing we have to a military scalpel.
Well, if you’re asking me - I wasn’t screaming over Obama killing the civilians by drones. When it happened, I found it regrettable, and I also know that sometimes it’s unavoidable. What gave me comfort is that such cases were reported, not concealed, and in general I felt that the administration was rather careful in its drones deployment, and tried to minimize collateral damage.
I prefer the U.S. troops not getting killed. If they can kill a terrorist by using a drone, I support it.
As for Trump’s operation, I don’t oppose the use of the U.S. special forces when that makes most sense. Not everything can be achieved by drones.
However, my understanding is that there’s some question about the lack of overview of risks prior to operation (I don’t know if that’s true). And also, I found it strange that when conditions changed, i.e., when it became clear that the operation was compromised, they went ahead with it. Why? Was it because of the pressure exerted by the administration, or was it just an unfortunate mistake?
In any case, as I said, I support both, drone and using special forces. I’d much rather the kids didn’t get killed, of course.
For me, it’s down to a choice between “stopping a terrorist who plans to kill Americans, but risking killing innocent bystanders in order to get him” vs. “refusing to risk the lives of innocents, therefore deciding to leave terrorists alone and letting them kill us unopposed”.
His kids don’t deserve to die. But neither do ours. He plans to kill our kids. We try our hardest not to harm his. That’s the bottom line.
As reported by real journalists:
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/02/us/anarchists-respond-to-trumps-inauguration-by-any-means-necessary.html
And now for some good news, Congress votes to repeal ban on thought criminals who reject The Narrative from buying gunz:
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5893e15be4b04061313629d3?
What, eventually, Identity Politics revert down to.
Who is the biggest victim?
And who gets the special rights?
And still, the left can’t figure out why they lost.
—
Philadelphia gay bars ordered to undergo anti-racism training after damning report
Washington Times | 2 Feb 2017 | Jessica Chasmar
Philadelphia’s Commission on Human Relations is ordering owners and staff of 11 gay bars and clubs to undergo anti-discrimination training after a report found that the city’s famed “Gayborhood” has been unwelcoming to minorities and transwomen for decades.
The commission released a report last month based on verbal and written testimony from community members that found Gayborhood businesses “are owned by white, cisgender, males who create preferable environments for white, cisgender male patrons.” “Although the expectation is a ‘safe space’ for all LGBTQ people, many people of color, women and transgender individuals experience racism, prejudice and discrimination in these spaces,” the report revealed. “Transwomen of color are particularly vulnerable to discrimination, harassment, and physical violence.”
The commission on Jan. 23 issued an action plan requiring the bars to undergo sensitivity training within three months or possibly be punished or face legal action, The Associated Press reported. “We determined it was necessary for all of the bars to be trained on anti discrimination laws and implicit bias so all members of the LGBTQ community can feel safe from bias and discrimination wherever they go,” Rue Landau, the commission’s executive director, told Eater on Wednesday.
“LGBTQ community”
A community of nonconformists will always insist on conformity.
How can there be soul-searching at the Clinton Foundation Influence Peddling Syndicate, when those grifters are soulless?
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/02/us/hillary-bill-clinton-foundation.html?_r=0
A man without a conscience considers only consequences. That’s why we have laws.
“Sellers of Hamptons mansions are having to slash prices to secure sales as the glitzy summer hot spot’s luxury housing market continues to cool. The median price for luxury homes sold in the Hamptons (the top 10% of sales) dropped almost 30% to $5.85 million in the final three months of 2016 compared with a year earlier, according to Douglas Elliman Real Estate and appraisal firm Miller Samuel.”
I wonder why this is. Not so much why prices are dropping, but why people are selling in the first place. I haven’t been back to the Hamptons since the 1980s, but it used to be that a house in the Hamptons was a true second home. Families hung on to them for years, it was where they went in the summer and the worth of the house had nothing to do with it, the main thing was that they had the house in the first place.
I can understand selling for inheritance reasons and perhaps the odd sale here and there by someone who had a change in fortune, but I would think that most of today’s Richie Riches would want to stay established in the Hamptons, unless the bloom is off the rose as a summer resort for people with a lot of money.
Can’t wait to see the price drops when the pitchforks and torches descend on the place.
Heh, maybe that’s why they’re selling, to get out ahead of the pitchforks and torches.
Over the years I’ve read some interesting stuff about the attitude of the “wealthy” at various time periods in US history. There’s a good reason that “quiet money” prevailed during and after the Great Depression. People understood it was not a good idea to shove their prosperity in the faces of those less fortunate. So they retreated behind ramshackle stone walls and wore quality classic clothing that was understated, and often even drove beater cars. And adopted an attitude of “noblesse oblige” which, even though it was condescending, was nothing compared to the in-your-face nastiness and sadistic attitudes of today’s so-called “elites”.
Many of today’s wealthy have crummy manners. And instead of changing this, they look for bolt-holes in New Zealand.
How people act, wealthy or not, comes down to character. Character is directly related (in most cases) to how one’s wealth was obtained/maintained: hard work or dumb luck (born into it, lottery winnings).
That sounds unlikely. Both kinds of rich people must have both admirable and deplorable people among their numbers.
He or she said in most cases and I think he or she is right.
He or she wasn’t specific about the relationship.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/25/10-traits-rich-people-have-in-common.html
“In fact, 77 percent of people with at least $3 million in investable assets came from middle class or lower backgrounds while 19 percent surveyed reported growing up poor, according to a new survey. ”
8. They had strong examples growing up: While the wealthy do not typically come from wealthy backgrounds, the majority were raised by parents who encouraged them to pursue their interests but set firm boundaries. About four out of five said this was true about their childhood. These five values were stressed more while the wealthy were growing up: “academic achievement, financial discipline, work participation, family loyalty and civic duty.”
discipline, work participation, loyalty are key components/virtues of strong character.
———————————————————
http://www.independent.org/students/essay/essay.asp?id=2627
“Individual determination depends on the perception of how actual effort translates into actual success. Individual drive depends on the level of self control individuals believe they have over their life choices. An extension of this argument is that individual choice depends on how much control you feel you have over your life. When individuals think that they have control over their life, they will be more likely to find ways that improve their welfare. The more likely an individual views economic success as being determined one’s own will, the more likely these individuals will engage in productive, future oriented activities. These activities include things like hard work, investment in human capital, and undertaking entrepreneurial actions. However, if individuals view the likelihood of succeeding as a product of luck or political connections, they will tend to not engage in productive economic and social activities. Instead, they may choose to channel their activities toward unproductive activities such as rent seeking. This attitude towards economic activity will surely impact economic development in a country (Banfield 1958).”
…
“These virtues do not emerge in a black box. A society’s morals are context dependent indicating that individuals’ attitudes and beliefs will respond to the institutional environment that they operate in. Particularly, individuals respond to formal rules and government behavior. My analysis indicates that government’s attempt to provide social capital, morality, and virtues will more than likely lead to the destruction of a virtuous society instead of the creation of one. A government’s productive role in enhancing society is based on providing fundamental institutions and limiting regulations and interventions in a market economy allowing civil society to evolve on its own.”
—————————————————-
“That sounds unlikely.” - support for this predictable response is forthcoming, I’m sure.
“Both kinds of rich people must have both admirable and deplorable people among their numbers.” - No sh!t. You could just as easily say the same for poor, middle class, straight, gay, trans, cis, etc. You’re not adding to the conversation, simply being contrarian for hell of it. There is plenty of literature on the topic. The question is whether you choose to search it out, read it, understand it, question it, and comment rationally; or just throw out useless platitudes.
You didn’t post anything there about lottery winners or heirs to small fortunes.
Also, “discipline, work participation, loyalty are key components/virtues of strong character” is a matter of opinion. Even if most of would agree with it, there are quite a few other attributes that make up good character.
One other thing, this - “the wealthy do not typically come from wealthy backgrounds” has been becoming less true for quite a few years now as the American economy ha been experiencing a significant decline in social mobility.
It also appears that http://www.independent.org part of one of those “pro-business”, “small government” operations, probably funded by rich people, that promotes belief in the Just-world Hypothesis, which downplays the role that luck plays in determining who gets rich and who is poor.
I wonder why this is. Not so much why prices are dropping, but why people are selling in the first place.
Perhaps they’ve read the latest NY environmental report that discusses the future flooding of various parts of NYC tri-state area due to oceans rising. They’ve broken it out into three parts, and show with graphs which areas will be hit when.
I was appalled to learn that some areas, which I like very much, are predicted to start getting constantly flooded relatively soon, and are expected to submerge completely in my lifetime.
I was appalled to learn that some areas, which I like very much, are predicted to start getting constantly flooded relatively soon, and are expected to submerge completely in my lifetime.
you’re delusional.
You are. You just repeat fossil-fuels industry’s talking points, instead of reading the scientific reports yourself.
You just repeat fossil-fuels industry’s talking points
show me where i repeated their talking points.
all anyone has to do is go back and look at your ‘definition’ of ‘intellectual’ to see how disingenuous you are. i don’t think you’re capable of making a truly logical argument. you’re too careless with your thinking.
when you sense you’re getting ‘boxed in’ in an argument, you want to change it in some way rather than drilling deeper to resolve it.
It’s interesting however, that there’re no examples of any kind of independent thinking from you, just criticizing others for theirs.
It’s interesting however, that there’re no examples of any kind of independent thinking from you, just criticizing others for theirs.
yep, people here know me as a conventional thinking follower. yer pretty smart to know me so well.
no examples of any kind of independent thinking from you
Neither do you. It’s like reading any msm rag. YUCK!
Do you know how to communicate in paragraphs, instead of one-liners? Or is that too complex?
“I believe much trouble and blood would be saved if we opened our hearts more. I will tell you in my way how the Indian sees things. The white man has more words to tell you how they look to him, but it does not require many words to speak the truth.”
–Hinmaton-Yalaktit (aka Chief Joseph)
Now try expressing it in your own words.
Only when you stop lying.
I never lie. Unlike your President.
Yep Obama lied people died.
You’re confused.
Look in the mirror.
“It’s like reading any msm rag. YUCK!”
This.
And according to Al Gore we would be having multitudes of CAT 5 hurricanes on a yearly basis by now.
And Florida would be just some islands.
I also remember from the 1970s that a new ice age was coming and anything north of Virginia would be unhibatiable arctic winter wastelands…
And the predictions of the best selling book “Silent Spring” were all wrong.
Maybe you should not believe polarized and politicized science whose very existence is based on grants from people who only want to hear a certain conclusion…
Wasn’t NYC already supposed to have started being flooded due to rising sea levels?
From 2001:
“While doing research 12 or 13 years ago, I met Jim Hansen, the scientist who in 1988 predicted the greenhouse effect before Congress. I went over to the window with him and looked out on Broadway in New York City and said, “If what you’re saying about the greenhouse effect is true, is anything going to look different down there in 20 years?” … “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change.” ”
http://www.salon.com/2001/10/23/weather/
Bullcarp, NYC.
Nothing in NY will be submerged in your lifetime.
Go online and watch Preacher Gore’s first movie. Then marvel as how wrong he was.
What are your scientific credentials to make this prediction?
Wrong then wrong now wrong forever…..
https://skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s-intermediate.htm
I just looked into that cooling business. Apparently, it’s much ado about nothing. There was no consensus in the field as there is today.
Global cooling was a conjecture during the 1970s of imminent cooling of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere culminating in a period of extensive glaciation. This hypothesis had little support in the scientific community, but gained temporary popular attention due to a combination of a slight downward trend of temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s and press reports that did not accurately reflect the full scope of the scientific climate literature, which showed a larger and faster-growing body of literature projecting future warming due to greenhouse gas emissions.
…
1970s awareness
Concern peaked in the early 1970s, though “the possibility of anthropogenic warming dominated the peer-reviewed literature even then” [1] (a cooling period began in 1945, and two decades of a cooling trend suggested a trough had been reached after several decades of warming). This peaking concern is partially attributable to the fact much less was then known about world climate and causes of ice ages. Climate scientists were aware that predictions based on this trend were not possible - because the trend was poorly studied and not understood (for example see reference[17]). Despite that, in the popular press the possibility of cooling was reported generally without the caveats present in the scientific reports, and “unusually severe winters in Asia and parts of North America in 1972 and 1973…pushed the issue into the public consciousness”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling
Undoubtedly better than yours and your high priest Gore who is a charlatan with no scientific background whatsoever. Given that, what does that say about luddite followers like you?
I’m making no prediction; a better question would be: What are Al Gore’s credentials in this area?
junior_kai
Aren’t you the same guy who was giddy with glee over supposed ruin of colleges (and RE around it)?
Kind of makes me doubt you have any, (credentials, that is).
What are your scientific credentials to make this prediction?
that’s your rebuttal?
is it any wonder why so many here don’t believe anything you say?
What are Al Gore’s credentials in this area?
Why are you deflecting and talking about Al Gore?
I was discussing a specific report by the Regional Plan Association, (a 90 year old organization that examines economic health, infrastructure, and sustainability in the tri-state area).
Interesting stuff. For myself, I decided to avoid the areas mentioned in the report.
that’s your rebuttal?
Yes, because you made a wild claim which completely opposed the conclusions of scientific research.
If you disagree with scientists who wrote that report, then it’s a valid question, to ask you about YOUR credentials.
Yes, because you made a wild claim which completely opposed the conclusions of scientific research.
i didn’t make the claim, but i agree with it.
what credentials do you need to see that 70’s predictions of an arriving ice age 20 or so years ago were wrong?
There was no consensus in the field as there is today.
And what exactly is the consensus today?
That the earth is warming? Check.
That the release of CO2 is a major cause? Check.
Any deeper, like “climate change is dangerous” (not “may be”, but “is”) and the consensus evaporates.
Please show me some meaningful studies that there is a meaningful consensus beyond those two points…because I haven’t seen any…and I’ve looked.
I think that there is a consensus that warming will lead to rising sea levels.
Okay, you convinced me. Climate change is not dangerous. We should continue burning fossil fuels like there’s no tomorrow, and ignore the science warnings. They are all paid for by Gore, anyway.
Oceans are not rising, and buying a house on Fire Island is a perfectly safe investment, that is under no threat whatsoever from the projected increase in inundation.
In fact, there’s no better real estate investment then ocean-front property. Climate change? Nope, didn’t hear about it.
What about ozone holes, didn’t scientists like advise to make certain adjustments, which resulted in their reduction?
Wouldn’t that one big win serve as a reminder, that maybe, sometimes, occasionally, it could be really smart to listen to the scientists, when so many of them are ringing the warning bell?
Nah. It’s much smarter to listen to the fossil industry and ocean-front property peddlers. THEY will not lie to you. Got it.
In fact, here are a couple other of my fave wrong climate predictions…maybe these predictions are more art than science, lol
2006, a CBC article includes a prediction of no natural snow for the 2010 Vancouver Olympics (I have to link this from archive.org because the original article was removed from the CBC site…go figure):
http://web.archive.org/web/20061111122606/http://www.cbc.ca/canada/calgary/story/2006/10/20/skihills-warming.html#ixzz0dyTrB8re
“Arctic Summers Ice-Free by 2013″ said this 2007 BBC article…at least they have enough integrity to not delete old stuff like this that runs out to be wrong:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm
expected to submerge completely in my lifetime.
Who expects this? And don’t say “99% of scientists”.
Everything I’ve read shows a wide range of outcomes, with the lower end of the range being far more likely based on evidence.
You’re welcome to buy a house in Fire Island.
Put your money where your mouth is.
“flooding of various parts of NYC tri-state”
“I was appalled to learn that some areas, which I like very much, are predicted to start getting constantly flooded relatively soon, and are expected to submerge completely in my lifetime.”
Hook Line and Sinker
Old Greenwich Ct. which is part of the NYC tri-state area, floods the same as it did in the early 1960s.
When there is a day or two of Heavy rain, a High tide and a full moon.
So if that has remained the same for 50 years what magical chart says it’s about to change?
Now if you’ll excuse me I am going to check the Atlantic Ocean in SE Region IV and make sure it hasn’t moved like it hasn’t for the last 30 years.
You need to sell that paid for goberment propaganda to those young Trump protesters settin’ off the fireworks in the Berkeley riots.
The left still doesn’t understand why they lost.
The message from the Berkley riots and the left is that Milo is “tainting” free speech and must be silenced.
Orwell would be proud.
—-
Don’t let Milo Yiannopoulos taint message of free speech
Sacramento Bee | February 1, 2017 | The Editorial Board
First, the alt-right cult hero accepts invitations to speak on college campuses. Then, as word spreads, he revels in the backlash from liberal students who condemn his hateful rhetoric. And when unruly protesters force him to cancel, he wins – the public relations war anyway.
Yet, in this cowardly new world of alternative facts, the narrative that UC Berkeley is full of intolerant leftists who shut down speech they don’t like with rocks and commercial-grade fireworks has taken off. Yiannopoulos got what he wanted. And Trump, who has no problem with false narratives, went a step further by threatening to withhold federal funding from the UC system if “innocent people with a different point of view” aren’t allowed to speak.
Milo is having the last laugh as pre-orders of his book are rocketing up the Amazon sales charts. Triggered snowflakes and Soros scum = ka-CHING!
Milo should pay for his own security. When he spoke at Cal Poly this week, the city spent $55k on extra police. There were protests, no riots. Oaklands banditos live too far away.
Milo is a moocher.
Apparently it was money wasted as there were NO ARRESTS made.
The left still doesn’t understand why they lost ??
You don’t seem to understand that you won 2-Fruit.
The left still doesn’t understand why they lost.
The electoral college gives extra weight to votes from mostly rural states, who favor the Republicans.
Though that just raises the next question, since there’s a lot of poverty in those rural areas.
Blame it on those hicks, and ignore the elephant in the room.
Trump won PA, which hadn’t been Republican since 1988.
Trump won Michigan, which hadn’t been Republican since 1988.
Trump won Wisconsin, which hadn’t been Republican since 1984.
These three states won DJT the White House.
For some reason, his message resonated with those voters more than the message of the Democrats, which had their ear for almost 2 decades.
I was talking about the whole electoral college issue. Trump may have won majorities in those states, but not the country as a whole.
For some reason, his message resonated
Trump campaign’s used the same company (Cambridge Analytics) that orchestrated the Brexit vote.
They have a database of 230 million adults across the U.S., with highly detailed information (4000 points of personal details). That allows for perfect “micro-targeting” of voters via Facebook etc., distributing specially tailored messages, including fake news and false alternative facts, designed to affect the voters’ behavior.
Add to that working in tandem with Russians (including trolling, propaganda “leaks” and other targeted noise), and it becomes less surprising that “his message resonated”.
It was a very successful psych-op.
It’s gonna be a long eight years of stomping feet in the wilderness…
Also, Pennsylvania and Michigan are among the more populous states, so they’re not the ones that I’m referring to.
What do you think of the fact that Republicans got more House votes than Democrats? This has nothing to do with large land masses with disproportionate voting.
I don’t know what to make of that. It must mean that some people who voted for Hillary voted for a Republican congressman. It may have to do with the power of incumbency. You sometimes hear that 98% of House incumbents win re-election.
If you don’t like that theory you might conclude that her remark about deplorables didn’t hurt her. If it did hurt her, you might expect the opposite, that she would do worse than the Democratic House candidates.
Some guesses as to the House votes.
1. I know in Southern California we have districts with A LOT of illegal aliens, who don’t vote. So a district in Maine where 250,000 might vote, in L.A. maybe 80,000 might vote.
2. Gerrymandering generally gives the minority/losing party fewer, safer, less competitive districts, less advertising, less get-out-the-vote activities. The GOP candidate in a 60/40 district will probably get more votes than the Democrat in a 20/80 district. The Democrats allege that the GOP has gerrymandered a lot of states due to the Governor/Statehouse elections of 2010.
3. Population growth in general is greater in red states than in blue states and has been for over 50 years (back when California could be considered a red state)
4.I don’t know how 2016 compares to 2014 and 2012. Based on my guesswork all three should be consistent.
Sorry, Yellen the Felon. You and your Goldman Sachs organ grinders are not going to be able to take us to NIRP.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/02/02/markets-see-end-of-nirp-bank-of-japan-ecb-central-banks-dither/
Following up on the Obama administration’s incredibly wasteful “cash for clunkers” program, now perfectly good VWs will be forced to litter scrap yards nationwide.
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2017/02/03/cash-for-not-clunkers/
Silverton, OR Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/silverton-or/home-values/
“Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity…
And what rough Beast, its hour come ’round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?”
W. B. Yeats, The Second Coming, 1919
“Big darkness, soon come” — Hunter S. Thompson
The slouching Beast wears a hat that reads, Make America Great Again.
https://memegenerator.net/instance/21149996
Unattractive feminists (redundant, I realize) are not welcome at the Trump White House. Howl, future cat ladies, howl!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fashion/people/donald-trumps-directive-female-staff-should-dress-like-women/
It’s all about the bottom line. He just wants to compel the men to purchase Trump ties and the women Ivanka’s dresses.
Sure, Mikey. A few dozen White House employees buying Ivanka dresses and Trump ties will add immensely to the Trump family’s bottom line. Meanwhile their net worth is taking a tremendous hit from all the boycotts and hostility against their name and brand.
I suspect that you own more than a few Ivanka dresses and wear them while you post. Because they make you feel so pretty.
Are you familiar with Ivanka dresses? They are Chinese made crap of appallingly poor quality.
This week Nordstrom announced they stopped carrying Ivanka Trump’s apparel “due to poor sales” (there was a boycott
).
I was surprised to learn that Nordstrom had carried her stuff in the first place, since it’s so subpar. The cheapest of the cheap, quality-wise.
I think “Trump brand” will become toxic before he leaves the office.
I think “Trump brand” will become toxic before he leaves the office.
He and his family will amass billions by the time they leave office. Trump brand won’t matter anymore.
Uber got hit too, CEO changed his colors.
Hey Puty! Let’s have lunch, I’ll bring Tily!
45 Jan 20th, 2017
Unless he is impeached.
NA GA HA
Pence is the insurance policy. Honestly does anyone (of course except you) you want a neocon like Pence?
What Ivanka won’t tell you is that sleeveless sheaths are cheap and easy to make because you don’t have to fit sleeves, and you use much less material.
They are also incredibly uncomfortable to sit in.
Trump can’t possibly know anything about the clothing business. He probably can’t darn a sock. He’s a salesman. You know the saying - “always be closing”.
Coffee is for closers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUqo5tPZjrM&list=RDKUqo5tPZjrM#t=53
You go girl:
https://www.rt.com/business/376212-france-foreign-workers-tax/
Le Pen has promised a Brexit-style referendum on France’s EU membership if she wins the presidential elections in the spring.
That’s the main reason why Putin pays Le Pen. He wants to end the E.U.
Do you ever wonder why Putin promotes and supports the E.U. breakdown?
Apart from military considerations (it’s easier to dominate a bunch of small countries than a large Union), it’s money and power.
Putin tried to blackmail Europeans, and, by withholding gas during harshest winter months, he used Russian natural gas as a weapon. In response, the E.U. announced that instead of individual countries negotiating with Russia, they will start negotiating jointly as the E.U.. Which means much lower prices for the Russian gas.
They’ve also networked their countries gas lines in such a way, as to be able to share gas among different countries. So for example, if Putin tries to withhold gas from Germany, it can receive gas from Poland or France, and vice versa. Which made blackmail much less effective.
That’s why he pays Le Pan, and other people like Le Pen (including France’s second main candidate). He wants a weak Europe that Russia will easily dominate.
Le Pan is not a patriot. She’s a Putin’s stooge, paid for by a foreign hostile power who plans to use her to France’s detriment.
She’s a Putin’s stooge, paid for by a foreign hostile power who plans to use her to France’s detriment.
you should be writing spy novels.
Are you denying that Le Pen got financing from Putin, and that she recently asked for more?
It’s public information.
Are you denying that Le Pen got financing from Putin
an accusation garnered from emails that hasn’t been proven. can you prove it?
Lies lies lies. Neocon Chick only lies.
Russian bank loan[edit]
In November 2014, Marine Le Pen confirmed that the party had received a €9 million loan from the First Czech Russian Bank (FCRB) in Moscow to the National Front.[201] Senior FN officials from the party’s political bureau informed Mediapart that this was the first installment of a €40 million loan, although Marine Le Pen has disputed this. [193][201] The Independent said the loans “take Moscow’s attempt to influence the internal politics of the EU to a new level.”[193] Reinhard Bütikofer stated, “It’s remarkable that a political party from the motherland of freedom can be funded by Putin’s sphere - the largest European enemy of freedom.”[202] Marine Le Pen argued that it was not a donation from the Russian government but a loan from a private Russian bank because no other bank would give her a loan. This loan is meant to prepare future electoral campaigns and to be repaid progressively. Marine Le Pen has publicly disclosed all the rejection letters that French banks have sent to her concerning her loan requests.[203] Since November 2014, she insists that if a French bank agrees to give her a loan, she would break her contract with the FCBR, but she has not received any other counter-propositions. [204][205] Le Pen accused the banks of collusion with the current government[203] In April 2015, a Russian hacker group published texts and emails between Timur Prokopenko, a member of Putin’s administration, and Konstantin Rykov, a former Duma deputy with ties to France, discussing Russian financial support to the National Front in exchange for its support of Russia’s annexation of Crimea.[206]
an accusation garnered from emails
A lie. It’s public information.
Le Pen received multi-million dollar “loans” from Putin’s banks which were subsequently forgiven.
And she publicly (do you understand this word?) asked for more, as recently as last December.
It’s public information.
if it’s a reputable source, it should be easy for you to prove it. of course, you haven’t done so yet.
You read Russian?
i see. it’s ‘public information’ that’s in russian.
Although here’s one story in English, and there’re plenty more:
“Le Pen is struggling to raise the 20 million euros ($21 million) she needs to fund French presidential and legislative campaigns in 2017 after the party’s Russian lender failed, the party treasurer said.
“The loss of the FCRB was a hard blow for us,” Saint Just said in a telephone interview. “The Russia loan was a stable resource. Now we are still searching for loans.”
FCRB lent the National Front 9 million euros in 2014. In the same year, party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen’s political fund Cotelec received another 2 million-euro loan from a Russian-backed fund based in Cyprus, news website Mediapart reported. Saint Just said Cotelec helped fund the party’s 2015 regional campaign.
The National Front leader and her allies have made multiple trips to Moscow or Crimea in recent years.
In February Saint Just said the party was reaching out to Russian banks for 25 million euros to bankroll its presidential campaign.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-12-22/le-pen-struggling-to-fund-french-race-after-russian-backer-fails
i see. it’s ‘public information’ that’s in russian.
Plenty of stories in English, if you only bothered to look. And in French, if you speak it.
I did provide you one link.
Although, I don’t see why I should do your work for you? You don’t have google and don’t know how to search?
Is this why you are so easily duped by fake propaganda?
Condos and co-op prices in Manhattan are still bubbling, thanks to the Wall Street-Federal Reserve looting spree against the 99%.
http://www.businessinsider.com/upper-manhattan-housing-market-prices-2017-2
Goldman adds 50 points to Dow amid deregulation talk.
enough said.
Drain the swamp baby, drain it.
Oops….
+1
Maybe we ought to let Iran and Saudi Arabia sort this out among themselves.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-yemen-idUSKBN15I25F
Yes, it might take them another 1000 years but I am a patient man at least sometimes.
Good for business… we can continue to sell the both weapons. Of course, they have to promise not to use them against us.
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/it/Chinese-phones-gain-24-share-in-global-market/shdaily.shtml
Go Trump crush those sales. The Chinese press does sound alarmed.
Midtown Manhattan Rental Rates Crater 10% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/midtown-new-york-ny/home-values/
proof people must read this blog. they’re just learning.
go to the 28:30 mark to see.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfRG4zU4i_g
China’s next Cultural Revolution is going to be led by vengeful Maoists against the “capitalist roaders” who led the country to ruin with their Keynesian economics and runaway speculation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/05/world/chinas-maoists-are-revived-as-thought-police.html
I love the hindus!
Trump Not Planning Any Executive Order On H-1B Visas, Says Indian-American Tycoon
Washington: The Trump administration has no plans to come out with an executive order on H-1B visas, a prominent Indian-American donor and supporter of the US President claimed on Thursday, contradicting media reports that have generated anxiety in India.
“There will be a need of more H-1B visas. The number of people on H-1B from India is certainly going to increase,” Chicago-based Shalabh Kumar and head of the Republican Hindu Coalition, told reporters at a news conference.
Responding to a volley of questions, Mr Kumar claimed that contrary to the reports in the media, there is no executive order being worked upon by the White House on H-1B visa. For the American economy to grow, IT would have to play an important role.
“As such I visualise need of more IT workers in the US,” he said, adding that the US has huge shortage of IT workers which can be filled up only by Indian IT professionals.
Of the view that the Trump Administration would be working to ensure that there is no fraud and abuse of H-1B visas, Mr Kumar said he believes that the White House would work to eliminate country-quota towards allocation of green cards for legal permanent residents.
“This would be of great help Indian IT professionals,” he said, adding that the current wait time for Indians to get a green card could be as many as 35 years.
ndtv.com
How much would I have to bribe this guy to tell the truth?
Trump doesn’t need an executive order if H1-B reform has bipartisan support in Congress, which it does.
If he needed an executive order, it should be easy for him to produce one, unless the White House has run out of paper.
No it doesn’t. They are talking about raising the prevailing wage to 130K or something like that. Mark my words, when they finally pass the bill, the prevailing wage will be 80K not 130k. Small businesses, Non-profit, Govs, etc. will be exempt. Same as it ever was.
Get your head out the Orange a$$, woman!
Wow, this guy is a racis’ with statements like this: ” . . . the US has huge shortage of IT workers which can be filled up only by Indian IT professionals.”
So Native American IT workers need not apply?
Betsy DeVos inches closer to Senate confirmation.
Like Ben Carson she has no idea what she is doing, but promises to hire smart people. (Like 45 said he would) How far down does this go before we get to the talent? Lots of money being wasted.
If only she had been a community organizer…
Can’t wait to hear you squeal when taxpayer dollars go to some madrassa in Michigan.
Fauxahontus, the so-phony “champion of the middle class” who is talks a good game but is a no-show when it comes to actually standing up to the Wall Street-Federal Reserve Looting Syndicate, had this to say about Trump’s changes to Dodd-Frank:
“Donald Trump talked a big game about Wall Street during his campaign - but as President, we’re finding out whose side he’s really on. Today, after literally standing alongside big bank and hedge fund CEOs, he announced two new orders - one that will make it easier for investment advisors to cheat you out of your retirement savings, and another that will put two former Goldman Sachs executives in charge of gutting the rules that protect you from financial fraud and another economic meltdown. The Wall Street bankers and lobbyists whose greed and recklessness nearly destroyed this country may be toasting each other with champagne, but the American people have not forgotten the 2008 financial crisis - and they will not forget what happened today.”
Why are you repeating Trump’s juvenile insults? The man himself lies as he breathes, no comparison.
Warren is right in this. I remember how it was before regulations, and after. Better “too much” than “none at all”, IMHO.
Miami-Dade county’s million-dollar-plus condo inventory has soared past its pre-recession peak, according to a report by Esslinger Wooten Maxwell Inc. About 2,550 units were listed for sale at the end of January compared with the previous record of 1,850 units at the end of 2006. At the current average sales pace of 47 units per month, it would take 4½ years to sell out of the current supply
Plenty of Russian money in Miami condo market, especially at Sunny Isles Beach. Time to invite more of them, to save the market?
Today, from the last word of the accused at Navalny’s trial*:
“I’m calling on you and say: my friends, those three trillion dollars from sale of oil and gas, they are yours, but they were taken abroad and transformed into villas“.
https://zona.media/article/2017/03/02/navalny_v_kirove
He makes a good point. All of that money, siphoned by kleptocrats, found its way to the West. Miami condos, London houses, French castles, you name it.
We often talk about how the bubble is a fault of Central bankers’ easy money policies. But IMHO we should also acknowledge the enormous stolen money flows which found their way to the global RE market. Kleptocrats and gangsters from all over the world steal from their local emerging markets, but prefer to park the cash in the developed world’s real estate.
* (In case you don’t know the back story: Navalny is an opposition leader who investigates Kremlin’s corruption. First time he tried to participate in the Moscow mayoral elections, he was arrested on made-up charges. Recently, the European Court of Human Rights reviewed that trial and ruled that it was purely politically motivated, and obliged the Russian court to pay penalties for undue persecution. In response Navalny was arrested again, and they’re currently retrying him on the same charges in a different city. Today he gave his “last word of the accused”.)
Stamp your little feet, Fauxahontus. Throwing in with Crooked Hillary and rushing to defend the Fed from a real audit showed your true colors.
http://www.businessinsider.com/elizabeth-warren-on-trump-deregulation-2017-2
It’s amazing how this blog was all in favor of greedy Wall Street regulation during the Great Recession.
Yet now we condemn the very people who worked hard to make WS regulation happen, and cheer up Trump, who’s stuffing his Cabinet with Goldman Sachs and tearing up those regulations?
It’s a topsy-turvy world.
Maybe you’re not paying attention, Natasha. Most in here despise Government Sachs.
Yet those same people love Donald Trump.
Mighty
How many times have you typed ” Donald Trump” today?
An estimate would be fine.
If you mean that literally, it appears to be just once. Of course, I’ve referred to him as Trump, the president, POTUS, etc.
or Trump and the figure is going up.
Complex regulation favors large entities, and leaves huge loopholes.
Short, simple regulation does not.
Quiz: who said this?
“What do they expect me to write, a 100,000-page bill? This is far beyond the capacity, the expertise, the knowledge of a Congress”
If you answered Chris Dodd, you are right. And this statement is precisely the point.
The government was in no position to write 100,000 pages of financial regulation (the end result of Dodd Frank), so, you know what they did? They pushed it to the SEC, who then got input from Wall Street. Dodd Frank was neutered through the process.
Who said this:
“to my great dismay, the regulatory council got persuaded by a coalition of liberal advocacy groups and the banks that they should let the loophole eat up the rule. So there was now—ironically—no risk retention on residential mortgages. There is risk retention on everything else.”
If you answered Barney Frank, you get a gold star.
I believe it was Neel Kashkari, responsible for managing TARP, president of the Federal Reserve Bank in Minneapolis, a Republican, and critic of Dodd Frank noted that some of the “living wills” for the big banks are more than 1,000 pages long. When the crisis hit, decisions needed to be made in a weekend…a 1,000 page “living will” is completely impractical in that context. His view is that a living will does nothing to avoid more government bailouts if a crisis hits.
His solution (which I support) is a LOT more capital being required at the banks. Simple, hard to get around, and very effective. For the biggest banks, he’s talking about a 15% capital requirement.
If I can be so bold, the consensus on this board from people who you think are condemning “the very people who worked hard to make WS regulation happen” is that Dodd Frank should be scrapped since it favors big banks, and doesn’t solve TBTF.
In other words, we believe they made ineffective WS regulation happen.
Note how many people here are calling for the reinstatement of Glass Steagall, which is eliciting screams from Wall Street.
Equally is Kashkari’s call for more capital.
Scrap Dodd Frank.
Reinstate Glass Steagall.
Increase bank capital requirements.
I agree with you. The problem is, (and it’s the same problem with ACA as with financial regulation), people who at least tried to do something, and who did something to solve the very real problem, are crucified for their efforts.
They are criticized for not doing enough, and for doing too much, and for doing it wrongly.
And then what is the result of the outrage over how poorly they enacted the much needed change?
Since we’re pissed off with those did, we give power to those who will do NOTHING. Who will just repeal everything and return to the Wild West days, prior to any WS regulation or any insurance for millions upon millions of people.
So in the end, we just end up in a worse place.
people who at least tried to do something, and who did something to solve the very real problem, are crucified for their efforts.
They are crucified for thinking that their way was the best, and completely ignoring other opinions on the matters at hand. The liberal view that their way is the correct way, and that opposing views must be in large part from a “basket of deplorables” is offensive, arrogant, and divisive.
The Koch brothers get death threats, and are held up as the example of why money should not be in politics. But there is nary a peep about Soros.
Again, Obama’s “outreach” to the GOP was a sham. In the simplest piece of legislation to accept GOP input (his stimulus bill), he went it alone…allowing zero GOP input into the bill–and getting no votes.
The ACA and Dodd Frank were passed with almost ZERO GOP support.
And yet the GOP who opposed these abominations of law were deemed “obstructionist” and dismissed out of hand, rather than taking the opposing views seriously. People started re-writing history to make the GOP look more obstructionist (McConnell’s comment about making Obama a one-term president was multiple times linked with obstructing Dodd Frank and the ACA–yet he uttered those words after both laws had already been passed).
And the MSM hailed Obama as a hero for passing these steaming piles.
I criticize the left because of their smug, self-righteous, arrogance.
the GOP who opposed these abominations of law were deemed “obstructionist” and dismissed out of hand
But didn’t recent history prove it? That they were obstructionist?
ACA is a case in point. For 8 years GOP opposed Obama on it. It opposed it when it was debated and proposed, and it opposed it after it was passed. GOP made its opposition to it THE main issue. They did nothing else, just “opposed” ACA.
And what now? They won, and… Did they have a plan to replace it? Did they have ANY proposal ready, which would be so much better than the hateful ACA? They had 6 years (six) to come up with a better idea.
Where is it? Nowhere to be found.
Turns out, they had squat. Nothing. Nada. Zero. No idea, no plan, no proposal, nothing but hot air obstructionism.
The liberal view that their way is the correct way, and that opposing views must be in large part from a “basket of deplorables” is offensive, arrogant, and divisive.
Most people think that their way is the correct way. I doubt that Mr. Dodd or Mr. Frank ever claimed that Republicans opposed their bill due to bigotry.
You talking about Chris “Friends of Angelo” Dodd and Barney Fwank?
Chris Dodd and Barney Frank should both be doing hard time for their role in causing the housing bubble and the 2008 financial crash. Those two clowns are the last people who should’ve been entrusted with fixing the problem.
LOL, maybe with the heritage that gave her her “high cheekbones” fauxcahontas can make it rain!
Is that your level of debate, referring to someone’s heritage?
she’s the one that tries to refer to her own heritage.. for political purposes no less. but the indians themselves blew the whistle on her. they say it’s all made up, and she doesn’t have a drop of indian blood.
A lie.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/06/warren-may-not-be-indian-trump-still-not-right.html
she doesn’t have a drop of indian blood.
Prove it.
I say I have some Polish blood in me, because that’s what family told me. Maybe it’s just a family myth, who knows. But I like to believe it.
Doesn’t give you any right to assert that “she doesn’t have a drop of Polish blood”. My family, even if mistaken, knows more about our heritage than you do.
Prove it.
the indians whose heritage she wants to appropriate already did. she’s a shameless liar that lied to gain admittance to a high profile university and minority status. she lied for financial and political advantage.
as for your heritage, i didn’t mention it and don’t care about it.. unless you lie about it to gain some advantage.
You lie, again. Read the link above. Liar, pants on fire.
Gosh, you support Trump, who lies as easily as he breathes - and you dare accuse someone else, when it was proven she did none of those things you accuse her of?
You are just as bad as Trump. Shameful.
Read the link above.
read the link below.
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/brian-walsh/2014/04/22/elizabeth-warren-glosses-over-native-american-controversy-in-new-book
what is ‘chief spreading bull’ hiding? why doesn’t she release her transcripts?
“Liar, pants on fire.”
Actually I think the luncheon menu is on fire.
ELIZABETH WARREN’S NATIVE AMERICAN QUESTION
By Amy Davidson May 8, 2012
When first asked about the directory listing, she told the Herald,
I listed myself in the directory in the hopes that it might mean that I would be invited to a luncheon, a group something that might happen with people who are like I am. Nothing like that ever happened, that was clearly not the use for it and so I stopped checking it off.
She put herself down as Native American for the lunch invitations, and stopped when none were forthcoming? Hearing that from a woman who knows how to be straightforward—and who would now surely be able to issue some invitations on her own—one can’t help but wince. She has since augmented that with talk of old family photographs and high cheekbones. One can be a strong, unequivocal supporter of affirmative action, and still be impatient with her on this one.
http://www.newyorker.com/news/amy-davidson/elizabeth-warrens-native-american-question
The emphasis on minority association can be a lure and a trap.
–Update– Post Executive Order to repeal Dodd-Frank
I have been following this blog for the last couple of years and can definitely see that most contributors tend to side with the “wait” don’t buy yet, wait for the bubble to pop folks. I tend to side with these folks myself…
Now, after the repeal and/or major deregulation post Dodd-Frank, I am beginning to question my own position…
Any more educated, smarter people here have any reasonable and viable opinions?
If I can afford to buy a condo now, should I just do it and wait for deregulation to continue to inflate the bubble? Last time it took over 4 years to finally pop the non-regulation bubble.
I don’t know if I can wait another 5 years in Los Angeles County to see “if” the bubble pops.
Would love to hear other’s opinions… do you still think there can be a pop in the short-term?
It seems that it is in the best interest of everyone’s, but yours, that prices go up.
It is hard to predict the future of markets especially when the markets dont appear to be between buyers and sellers anymore. So much of this economy rides on stock and home prices.
We’ll get a pop if Trump does something exceptionally stupid that would lead to world recession, such as starting a global trade war.
Also, getting rid of financial regulation will eventually lead to another crisis. But usually that doesn’t happen overnight.
NYchk
You aren’t Catholic are you?
Priest apologizes for urging Trump haters to kill themselves
By Caroll Alvarado January 31, 2017 | 2:23pm | Updated
The Catholic priest who urged Trump haters to hurl themselves from the tops of buildings has apologized.
The Rev. Philip Pizzo posted a meme to his public Facebook page Sunday that said, “Show your hate for Trump. #JumpAgainstTrump” and depicted a man plumetting from a tower, igniting backlash from parishioners.
The pastor, who leads the largely immigrant congregation at St. Benedict Joseph Labre Roman Catholic Church in Richmond Hill, first said the post was a funny joke, but now he has taken it down and is seeking atonement.
“I apologize for the hurt that I have caused over a Facebook post,” he said in statement.
http://nypost.com/2017/01/31/priest-apologizes-for-urging-trump-haters-to-kill-themselves/
If she really is Russian she might be Russian Orthodox, but it’s unlikely that she’s Catholic.
As for the Priest, his brain mist have been in reverse when he did that. I suspect that his bishop had a nice chat with him, asking him if he would like to be transferred to Nome, Alaska.
Ny,la,chi r already popping
Rents now falling in all big cities
Hang in
I don’t know if I can wait another 5 years in Los Angeles County
How is the job situation in Los Angeles county? What the trend?
Who are the main buyers of the condos you’re looking at?
hollyweird is hiring.
Chinese buying a lot of overpriced shacks.
I’m with you, brotha. I’m in San Diego with my wife and 2 kids, and we’re still renting. I have a sizable down payment for a $900K house, but I’m worried like hell that prices will plummet and I’ll lose my shirt. I’m sick of renting, but I don’t want to have a mortgage loan as a noose either.
Redmond, WA Housing Prices Crater 19% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/redmond-wa/market-trends/
Absolutely false, Housing Analyst. Prices are higher here right now than ever in recorded history. And people are fighting over what few houses are for sale.
“Victim of this, victim of that
Your momma’s too thin; your daddy’s too fat”
Too $hort — Money In The Ghetto:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_H-V_I7c7ak
Mr.Jones I need to buy you a few more beers in Denver. Plz lemme know when youll be here…
On the one dollar bill if you look on the front
You find the face of George Washington
Make money baby, that’s all I do
That’s how I know Thomas Jefferson is on the two
Abraham Lincoln got shot and died
Freed the slaves so they put him on the five
And Hamilton, my old time friend
They put his face on the front of the ten
These are the dead, presidents
From the hood and they represent
The American dream for the average minority
Make your money get some weed and a forty
I’m on the Eastside livin like a king
Kick back watchin fifty inch screens
Bounce to the Westside, hit the studio
And spend my money in the ghetto
John Wetton (1949 - 2017)
John Wetton, the English musician who played bass guitar and fronted the 1980s progressive-rock supergroup Asia, died Jan. 31, 2017, of colon cancer in Bournemouth, England, according to multiple news sources. He was 67.
Wetton began working and writing with Steve Howe, the former guitarist for Yes. They soon formed the supergroup Asia along with keyboardist Geoff Downes, also of Yes, and drummer Carl Palmer of Emerson, Lake & Palmer. Their eponymous 1982 debut album in 1982 reached No. 1 in a number of countries, selling more than 10 million copies worldwide. One of their most popular songs, “Heat of the Moment,” reached No. 1 on Billboard’s Album Rock Tracks chart, remaining there for six weeks.
Asia - Heat of the Moment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpxsMyoXUZQ
Only Time Will Tell by Asia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOOLNPLikoA
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sby/reo/5984018729.html
cash flow?
“Garage has been converted into entertainment/man-cave.”
If this shack is in San Francisco shouldn’t that be an entertainment/bi-cave or an entertainment/transgender-cave?
Hello everyone,
Long time reader and recent participant. I would appreciate an educated opinion on a short synopsis below. My wife and I live in Los Angeles (Studio City, Sherman Oaks) area, have a sizeable down payment saved up, have secure jobs ($100k+ - which is not as much as it sounds in LA) and have been waiting for housing prices to either pop or at least regress to a reasonable valuation.
We just received another rent increase letter from our owner (4th increase in 5 years) and are seriously considering a change to our 1-2 year plan (Plan B). I am very skeptical of waiting indefinitely, when Trump is loosening regulations and making it easy for people to jump into the RE market. The loosing in regulations effectively negates any positive effects an increase in interest rates may have provided.
I completely understand that this will further increase the bubble and will mean that 4-6 years in the future a pop is guaranteed. We don’t have 6 years to wait (already waited 4 years). We would like to have kids in the near future and have been eyeing a house, in a good school district, around the same geographical area (maybe venture out to Encino, Tarzana, or Woodland Hills if me must).
Current variables:
Rent 1800 (after increase)
$100 for gas and power
20% of net income towards housing
do not pay property taxes, water, trash, etc.
INITIAL PLAN A:
650,000 house (IF the prices ever come back to reality - HUGE IF - currently house value 900,000)
20% down
1.25% property tax (Prop 13 in CA)
2.5% per/mo set aside for earthquake insurance, homeowners insurance, and repairs fund
$600 for water, power, gas, grass, etc, etc, expenses
No PMI
Most likely would be Tarzana / Woodland Hills area for this $
Considering a change to PLAN B:
325/350k condo or townhouse
10% down (want to leave a decent chunk of $ and continue to add savings for an opportunity for a house). Also if the market collapses after we buy, which with my luck is completely possible, I would only lose 10% in the short time, I know I don’t lose anything until I sell, and pay those ridiculous broker fees :).
2.5% per/mo set aside for earthquake insurance, homeowners insurance, and repairs
Pay PMI
Pay HOA ($400 roughly, but less than the $600 in plan A for similar expenses)
Pay property taxes
Expect to live there at least 3 - 4 years, plan to rent it out and not sell (unless the market continues to go bunkers and I can flip for a nice return). I would sell, rent, with the expectation that a pop is closer and closer.
ALSO HAVE A TAX DEDUCTION. Generally speaking the tax deduction for us would roughly offset the HOA payments we would make monthly. We are not buying strictly to reap the tax rewards, so if Trump ever goes away from the tax deduction and implements 15k per person for a standard deduction, it would not affect us at all (actually better for us).
Most likely would be Sherman Oaks, Encino, Toluca Lake, Valley Village)
Should we just keep renting and saving money for an indefinite amount of time. If housing does not go significantly (not just 10/15%) we can be priced out for a very very very long time. In the meantime burning rent money with years increases and no tax benefits.
Or should we go with PLAN A or PLAN B? If so, please provide a brief narrative of your thoughts…
Thank you everyone!!!
Hey drumminj, on my computer using Firefox @AltFacts automatically goes to ignore. I can click to read comment but no choice to add or remove from ignore list when I right click on his name. Chrome works fine.
@ symbol have something to do with it?
Huh, that’s a new one. What version of the extension are you using? (most recent is 3.0.7 for Chrome), and Chrome or Firefox (I’ve kind of abandoned the FF version at this point).
I don’t have an issue using the most recent version on Chrome, and a quick test on Firefox (with extension version 2.4.2) doesn’t trigger the behavior you mention?
Easiest to email me to talk about this: jt (dot) extension [at] gmail (dot) com
You know, the exact same thing is happening to me, using Firefox as well.
Thanks for mentioning it. I can’t repro it locally so not entirely sure of a fix, but could try modify the username-matching algorithm (it doesn’t handle ‘@’ right now).
But…I discovered something even better last night. Firefox now supports the same plugin API as Chrome, so I think I can easily move the re-written (for Chrome) plugin over. Last night most of it seemed to “just work”
Will post info in a thread once I get it up and running 100%. Hopefully later today
Just a note to the folks using the extension on Firefox: I pushed a new version (Based on the Chrome version; a full re-write from the old Firefox version) to addons.mozilla.org. It will take some time for it to be approved and signed.
I’ve not fully tested it — it seems to work for the most part, but the ‘options’ page doesn’t seem to be working properly. I suspect it’s due to the fact it’s not an ‘official’ version of the extension, so I’m uploading it officially to be able to verify.
I’ll do my best to fix any issues in a prompt matter, but if you can’t live without the functionality, please don’t upgrade to version 3.0.8.
Great extension. Do you have one that would work on Android?
It looks like the issue only happens when you have no one ignored. The new version of the extension doens’t have this problem, but feel free to sacrifice someone to fix it
Just testing.
Reminds me of the years before the big crash. Anyone who suggested a bubble was ridiculed and then when the crash happened no one saw it coming.
This time is different.
The difference is that last time, the bubble was pretty obvious and the eventual burst was one-directional.
This time is the period of much higher uncertainty with many additional factors in play. There are so many ways it can play out, the head is spinning.