All Of A Sudden There Was A Pretty Big Shift
A report from the Charlotte Observer on North Carolina. “Charlotte’s real estate market forecasts have been pretty universally positive for 2017, and CBRE added to the optimistic chorus last week, with predictions that growth and development will continue at their fast pace. Despite the record apartment-building boom in Charlotte, with some 23,500 new units planned or under construction, CBRE doesn’t expect vacancy to climb or rents to fall. That’s because job growth and in-migration is expected to provide a steady supply of new tenants to lease those new apartments.”
“‘Occupancy in the multifamily sector remains strong, consistently averaging around 95% from 2012 to present. Occupancy is expected to maintain, if not surpass, those figures over the next two years. The significant amount of development has not scared investors,’ CBRE wrote.”
The Oklahoman. “Apartment developers are building too high for average renters and average investors, so the best venture in 2017 is to buy, upgrade, stabilize and meet the growing demand for affordable housing. That’s the gist of the forecast portion of Commercial Realty Resources Co.’s 2016 apartment report — not that value-add investing is anything new. ‘Growing inventory at the top end will continue to bring average rents up, reducing the relative supply of moderately priced apartments,’ CRRC broker-owner Mike Buhl said.”
“‘New construction has taken this market to a different level in terms of rents, occupancy, pricing, the whole bit,’ Buhl said. Not everyone can afford what is being built now, he said. ‘Developers think they want to create glorious facilities that look really, really good, but the problem is it costs a lot of money to do that,’ CRRC said. ‘When it costs a lot of money to build, you have to charge that back in rent. There is not much availability for the group that is in the $25,000-to-$40,000 annual wage range and this group cannot afford to pay $1,000 to $2,000 a month for an apartment.’”
The Capital Times in Wisconsin. “According to a report released Wednesday, rents in Madison are slightly lower than they were last year. Yearly rent data can also be affected by many high-end units listed at the same time, pulling up the average rental price, said Matt Wachter, housing initiatives specialist for the city of Madison. ‘Some of these years just had really big projects come online, like the Constellation and Ovation, representing hundreds of units, so in one year it can look like these big spikes,’ Wachter said. ‘It’s totally possible that we’re reflecting that national trend of leveling off in 2016,’ Wachter said, but the reasons for this are unclear. ‘It’s hard to pinpoint why that is.’”
From Bisnow on Colorado. “The future health of Denver’s apartment market hinges on businesses and people continuing to want to be here, as they have in droves in recent years. ‘Denver is positioned well in the long run for the apartment supply in the pipeline today, but if there’s a slowdown nationally in the near term, we would likely have a period of oversupply,’ Palisade Partners president Paul Books said. ‘A slowdown would especially be impactful to the higher end of the market.’”
The Banker & Tradesman in Massachusetts. “Boston’s housing costs have continued to rise for six straight years, starting from a low point in 2011. Recently rent prices in Boston have begun to drop moderately, for the first time since the recovery began in 2011. GeoHome, a real estate big data startup, shares its predictions. Boston is experiencing a surge of building permit applications, the likes of which haven’t been seen in the last 60 years. In the past couple of years, over 5,100 apartment units have been built, with another 7,200 apartment units currently under construction that will soon be on the market, according to a recent market report from commercial real estate data firm REIS.”
“Most of these new buildings concentrate around central and south Boston with the majority of them in the high-end luxury condominium or apartment category. The introduction of this new supply to the housing market will make Boston housing more affordable – or result in a significant downward pressure on rents, which could in turn reduce house prices, depending on your perspective. Several neighborhoods, including the Back Bay, Bay Village and the South End, are beginning to experience this downward pressure at a higher rate than usual.”
“One important sign that the Boston housing market has reached the final stage before prices begin to decline is that bottom tier areas are experiencing housing price increases at a rate faster than the price increases being experienced within the top tier districts. From the summer of 2016, bottom tier area prices rose faster than the top tier area, indicating that the bubble is taking shape.”
The Silicon Valley Business Journal in California. “Multifamily housing is in high demand in Silicon Valley, but a new real estate forecast by Allen Matkins and the UCLA Anderson School of Management shows that developers’ desire to build new units may be waning. The recently released report shows that for the first time since Allen Matkins and UCLA began tracking multifamily market optimism among developers four years ago, respondents were less confident they could fill new units or get higher rents for those apartments in the coming years.”
“That was a surprise to John Tipton, a partner in the real estate department at Allen Matkins. ‘Multifamily, like industrial, had pretty much just been positive, positive, positive,’ he said. ‘Literally all of a sudden in this survey there was a pretty big shift.’”
“In 2016 alone, more than 11,260 units wrapped up construction in the Bay Area – more than double the region’s 15-year average of about 5,250 units annually, according to a recent report by RealPage, Inc. Apartment owners throughout the Bay Area are starting to offer new deals to attract new tenants, like a free month – or sometimes more – of rent for signing a lease in a more competitive market.”
From CBS 7 on Texas. “Good news for renters: apartment prices continue to go down. In Ector County, a one bedroom apartment will cost $650 in rent on average. That’s down 13-percent compared to this time a year ago; that’s according to data from Apartmentlist. You’ll also pay less for an apartment in Midland County. On average, a one bedroom apartment rents for $820. That is down nearly 14-percent from this time a year ago.”
The Real Deal on New York. “Chinese development firm CL Investment Group looks to be having second thoughts about New York City’s condo market. The company, formerly known as Cheerland, sold a 32.9 percent stake in the Luminaire, Magnum Real Estate’s rental-to-condo conversion at 385 First Avenue in Gramercy Park, property records show. In recent months, the Chinese firm appears to have soured on luxury condos in Manhattan amid concerns that the market is saturated.”
“This past fall, CL Investment canned its $300.2 million luxury condo conversion at 287 PAS, which it will keep as a commercial and office building, representatives said at the time. The conversion would have included 40 apartments, including a $17.5 million penthouse, according to now-withdrawn plans filed with the New York state Attorney General’s office.”
“Kuafu Properties, another investor with ties to Chinese capital, said last year that it will hold off on condo plans for a site at East 60th Street, which it had bought for $300 million, or more than $1,100 a foot.”
‘It’s totally possible that we’re reflecting that national trend of leveling off in 2016,’ Wachter said, but the reasons for this are unclear. ‘It’s hard to pinpoint why that is.’
Matt’s not the shiniest penny in the fountain, it would seem.
Are you suggesting he’s a couple of sandwiches short of a picnic?
‘Yearly rent data can also be affected by many high-end units listed at the same time, pulling up the average rental price…Some of these years just had really big projects come online representing hundreds of units, so in one year it can look like these big spikes’
So high end boom and you still got lower rents. Toast.
I think Matt Buhl’s point was that average rental data for the prior year was driven higher by leasing an abundance of high end units.
Now that all those units are leased, a more uniform mix of apartments being leased creates a lower average for current rental rates.
Now that all those units are leased,
Doubtful
‘Growing inventory at the top end will continue to bring average rents up, reducing the relative supply of moderately priced apartments,’ CRRC broker-owner Mike Buhl said.”
Another doozy.
Considering how rental rates are cratering, I’d like to see his math.
His “math” is greed. He thinks that if enough luxe comes online, then they can jack up the price of the Grade B too, If course there will be nothing affordable left, but since the price is still “affordable” compared to luxe, the poor will have no choice but to pay up.
Or perhaps he means that the relative supply of moderate apts will be reduced when they are all upgraded to luxe.
Both are greedy.
I dunno about that Donk…. Rental rates are falling everywhere at a pretty good clip.
‘Multifamily, like industrial, had pretty much just been positive, positive, positive,’ he said. ‘Literally all of a sudden in this survey there was a pretty big shift.’
A few too many positives there John. And for too long, but that’s how these things go. It could be worse: you could be one of these Charlotte “investors” listening to CBRE.
‘The recently released report shows that for the first time since Allen Matkins and UCLA began tracking multifamily market optimism among developers four years ago, respondents were less confident they could fill new units or get higher rents for those apartments in the coming years’
Equity Residential, the largest landlord in the US, was wildly bullish the first quarter of 2016. The next quarter they were cutting rents in San Francisco and issuing warnings. And UCLA just picked up on this in February 2017?
‘Good news for renters: apartment prices continue to go down. In Ector County, a one bedroom apartment will cost $650 in rent on average. That’s down 13-percent compared to this time a year ago; that’s according to data from Apartmentlist. You’ll also pay less for an apartment in Midland County. On average, a one bedroom apartment rents for $820. That is down nearly 14-percent from this time a year ago.’
A year ago how far down were they? Considering that these numbers don’t include concessions and vacancies, it’s probably more like 30-40%, maybe more. That’s default country. And what city lead the nation in luxury apartment growth at 700%? Midland!
Oil prices don’t matter in Midland
Oil prices seem to be going up!
‘Measure S: Pro and Con‘
‘During this brief timeout, Measure S makes the City Council pivot back to its job—planning ahead for L.A. residents, not operating a Wild West system in which developers and city leaders have created a luxury housing glut with a huge 12% to 20% vacancy rate. That growing glut, which the L.A. Housing Dept. has warned about officially, is simply not right in a city where even middle-class people can’t find a place to rent.’
Hard to tell the sky is falling with all that smog, lol! Better poke a stick in those grossly overpaid master planners to make everything all better - yeah, that will work.
LA does not have smog anymore, the clean air regulations solved that problem. Denver and Boise are worse now with the brown air in the winter.
Well, well in 2016 most of the worst cities were in CA
Here are the top 10 cities with the worst ozone or particle pollution:
1. Los Angeles-Long Beach, California
2. Bakersfield, California
3. Visalia-Porterville-Hanford, California
4. Fresno-Madera, California
5. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Arizona
6. Sacramento-Roseville, California
7. Modesto-Merced, California
8. Denver-Aurora, Colorado
9. Las Vegas-Henderson, Nevada
10. Fort Collins, Colorado
Visit our HTML tutorial
#fakenews
Fort Collins #10!? That’s unpossible! Everyone in the Fort drives a Prius
Kidding aside, you can see it as you drive north on 1-25, a nice haze over Fort Collins. Wasn’t like that when we moved here 20 years ago,
Sure it does. You just can’t see it.
“One important sign that the Boston housing market has reached the final stage before prices begin to decline is that bottom tier areas are experiencing housing price increases at a rate faster than the price increases being experienced within the top tier districts. From the summer of 2016, bottom tier area prices rose faster than the top tier area, indicating that the bubble is taking shape.”
Yep. That’s exactly what I’m seeing around here. The panic buying at the lower end is hilarious, especially when it is followed by a round or two of re-hab and renovation. People buying in some cases at twice what the shack is worth. Gonna be some sad panda boo-boo faces in the future. Although I think it’s the heirs who are gonna get a shock when they go to sell after the parent kicks the bucket. They’re also running those reverse mortgage ads like crazy in this neck of the woods.
I was driving this past weekend and heard a Quicken ad for cash out refinancing followed by a foreclosure defense lawyer commercial. I also heard the latest from that radio apartment guy who said two years ago, “it’s never, ever going to end and there was no way you could lose” in multifamily. He now says it is time to take some money off the table and a “big change” was coming, all to be revealed at his seminar. He mentioned the median apartment price per unit went from 50k in 2013 to over 200k today.
It’s deja vu all over again! Seriously, though, I’ve heard a couple of stories about heirs who were shocked, I tell you, SHOCKED to find out that Mumsy or Pops did a reverse mortgage and never told them. These days it’s Tom Selleck who’s hawking them. The two spokesmen before him, Fred Thompson and Alan Thicke, cashed out.
This is why I don’t want to waste time jabbering about politics. It looks like go time if you want to make some money and I’m focused on picking up some new apartments on the cheap!
“I’m focused on picking up some new apartments on the cheap!”
Better be real cheap, so the tenants can afford them.
Speaking of which, another one of my bubble 1.0 memories was of the “investors” who bought a house and then rented out individual rooms for $500-600 or more, which is what a decent one bedroom used to rent for in this part of Florida. Heck, you used to be able to get a decent 2 bedroom for $600.00 if you looked hard enough.
I remember the Craigslist ads for those house shares. Also the horror stories that people used to post about the strangers they roomed with.
“This is why I don’t want to waste time jabbering about politics.”
It was fun after the election with all the youtube compilations and the look back at the campaign trail, but just before inauguration until recently, the vitriol and vituperation went into the stratosphere. You know it’s bad when it’s too much even for me.
It looks like go time if you want to make some money and I’m focused on picking up some new apartments on the cheap!
I can’t tell if you’re being facetious. It doesn’t appear to be ‘go time’ in the market I watch. What area are you finding good buys in?
You have to start looking before you buy. And I ain’t spending time moderating natty ice dudes comments anymore.
“You know it’s bad when it’s too much even for me.”
Same here! LOL
It isn’t “go time” in the Sacramento foothills. We are still creating jobs and that results in new household formations. The market is tight because of low inventory and good demand.
Land for the taking:
https://www.rt.com/business/376318-free-land-russia-far-east/
Incorrect.
Housing demand is down 11% YoY in Sacramento. See for yourself.
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/City/City_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
‘It isn’t “go time” in the Sacramento foothills’
There’s two types: take money off the table, and the vultures. Why do you think the giants of the apartment biz have already sold?
“Same here! LOL”
Can you believe it? There we were, going at it during the campaign like two drunks in an Irish pub, two of the worst offenders, or so I thought. And then we got out-vituperated! How did that happen?
“…vituperated…”
Hehe… had to look it up.
“It looks like go time if you want to make some money and I’m focused on picking up some new apartments on the cheap!”
So you’re getting ready to swoop in? I’m surprised - things have obviously turned but I don’t smell panic in the air just yet. Not seeing mass bankruptcies and fire sale dumping so far, but that’s only from reading about it. Is your on-the-ground experience showing really panicked landlords and building owners?
I learned from a few years ago that you need to be ready before the SHTF. I can see the poo and it’s moving toward the fan. I saw what I am posting several times a week now, two years ago. Back when it was all positive, positive, positive! That was my first clue: these guys were using crazy talk. I looked a little deeper and found all sorts of mania like behavior. Did you see the EQR guy in my post this past weekend? He sounds a bit stressed.
After I get my numbers in to the tax guy this month I’m going to do some traveling to really dig into some markets. I figure I need to try and find a place(s) that falls early, will rebound sooner (hopefully), yet still has long term job prospects.
Understood, thanks for the elaboration
Personally I’m suffering from over-preparation fatigue! I incorrectly thought some of those major lulls in the past few years were the big crash. I was studying particular areas in-depth to be prepared for eventual opportunities, but they always managed to save the market when it started to look dire.
And with each reflation the opportunities for profit got harder to envision, first requiring a 25% crash, then 50%, then 75%, etc. Now it seems like everywhere has so far to fall it’s hard to imagine prices getting low enough to have a profitable rebound within a reasonable timeframe. Not impossible, mind, just inconceivable. When the inconceivable becomes reality, things will really get fun.
You mean this EQR guy? “We are already hearing some crazy stuff like three and four months free on 12-month leases.” I’m thinking Manhattan fits your criteria! At least the falling early part. 25-33% rent discount already, wow.
The only time I thought it was rolling over was late 2014. Mel and his gang started their drip, drip loan easing and that didn’t last long. Miami too is already in a serious correction, but I don’t have any interest in NY or Florida.
What these 25% plus falls signify is defaults are coming. It’s just a matter of time. Hundreds of billions in defaults. New owners can charge lower rents - more defaults. Apartments are supposed to be cheap. That’s the trade off for not having a yard, etc. In Phoenix they are building 10,000 apartments right now that the rents would buy you a nice house. That’s not going to work.
As far as fatigue, I became convinced Austin was in a bubble in 1998 when my landlord had the mortgage bill sent to me because he had lied and said he lived there. The payment was twice my rent, and that was the highest rent I had ever paid. It popped with the dotcom and the landlord defaulted on 5 houses. I was gone by then. So I have been watching this thing for a long time.
Are you thinking of looking in oil-crashed areas? At least in this one respect I agree with a-dan. Oil isn’t going to crash forever. If the Middle East is really running out of cheap easy crude, they’ll be force to go back and ramp back up in Albeque and Midland and Williston.
I’ll be going through Midland. But I’m not planning to manage these so they can be anywhere. Plus there are always people interested in a bargain even if I don’t participate.
Ha-ha, speaking of deja-vu all over again, here’s a HBB classic from 2008. Take a walk down memory lane with ole palmetto (caution: adult language):
“HTFC Corp. is a “mortgage investor.” It takes loan applications and sells loans to lenders. GMAC Bank, which administers residential mortgages, contracted to buy a bunch of residential loans from HTFC. GMAC sued HTFC in federal court for breach of contract, alleging that loans at issue weren’t properly underwritten and were not “investment quality,” whatever the hell that means. HTFC filed a counterclaim for tortious interference with contract and the case proceeded.
Agonizingly boring stuff, right? Well, hang on a second, Cochise. It gets better.”
https://completedefeasance.wordpress.com/2008/03/20/hit-that-fuckin-clown/
And here’s Margot Robbie in a bathtub explaining subprime mortgages on THE BIG SHORT.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIKNYxpsWvI
Which assets are mostly likely to survive the coming reset?
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.mx/2017/02/which-assets-are-most-likely-to-survive.html
“As a general rule, whatever the super-wealthy own will be protected from expropriation. Private real property is the foundation of the Elites’ wealth, and while the land of debt-serfs may well be confiscated for back taxes (the wealthy will buy exemptions from rising taxes), those who own land and buildings free and clear constitute a political force to be reckoned with.”
A rational observation.
San Francisco County, CA Rental Rates Plummet 7% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-county-ca/home-values/
Denver has an estimated 6,000+ homeless people.
But nobody here talks about it, it’s easier to just pretend it isn’t happening…
I had no idea the economy was that bad there. I can tell you this….. NYC homeless is ramping up quickly.
NYC homeless is ramping up quickly.
Because we have de Blasio, who isn’t doing anything for the city at all except feud with police.
It’s probably a small percentage but some homeless people want to be homeless.
There was a dude on the local tube before a cold snap the other night that said that very thing. He didn’t want to be tied down by anything.
Sacramento’s homeless numbers seem to be surging, even in the outer suburbs (not just the urban core)
I can personally verify Deezy’s homeless comment as true;
went for a walk in the brief calm between storms the other day & there seems to be a very large permanent tent pitched next to the Sunrise Overpass on the American River in the brush.
You can see it from the footbridge.
High above it on the bluff is a large house. commanding view & price to match I’m sure.
The difference is a stark reminder of two different worlds.
Denver has it’s own tent city along the Platte river, or so I have heard. I can’t imagine living in a tent here during the winter, especially when one of those polar vortex things blows through.
Maryjane cushions the winter blow I suppose.
Maryjane cushions the winter blow I suppose.
Or Four Loko….they may not even realize it’s winter.
They will when it’s 10 below.
Denver has an estimated 6,000+ homeless people.
I wonder what draws them to Denver? It sure can’t be the balmy winters. And there are warmer places that have legalized weed.
I just finished watching the documentary “InnSæi - the Sea Within (power of intuition)” on Netflix. Very interesting if you have the time.
Sounds interesting. Intuition is an amazing thing. I’ve found that if something doesn’t feel right, or if there are “bad vibes”, walk away fast. I’ve gotten in trouble by going against my intuition sometimes. On one occasion, though, taking heed of a “bad vibe” probably saved my life.
very astute comment about intuition, Palmy. I’ve also found it to be true on several occasions; the spidey sense goes off … time to take a closer look & more often than not just pass on the whole shebang.
that’s one thing about getting older; you learn to value your free time over the hassle of getting in over your head.
so many times I’ve succeeded by force of will, hard work & a bit of luck, but that gets tiresome after awhile and you learn to look that gift horse in the mouth to avoid what comes out the other end.
Thanks for the recommendation, look forward to catching it.
Just my pet theory, but I think that a primary aim of inferior education has been to isolate people from their own intuition, conditioning them to ignore their instincts to the point that bad decisions become habit.
One example: it doesn’t take much intuition to understand that housing costs shouldn’t double in 6 years. But a lot of people have been encouraged to routinely ignore that ’spidey sense’ and then to disassociate their bad decision from the consequences that materialize later. And the scary part is that these ignore-intuition people occupy positions of power - they manage pension funds and REITS and Fortune 500 buyback programs and government bureaucracies, and they hire underlings like themselves. Yikes!
‘Question: I am a librarian from New York and I have a patron who inquired about the quote, “Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it”. We know the quote was originally attributed to George Santayana, however, our patron would like to know when Mr. Churchill first used it. Unfortunately, my colleague and I have not been able to locate the the time or context of quote as it relates to Mr. Churchill. ‘
‘Answer: What Santayana wrote (in The Life of Reason, 1905) was: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
‘A search including key phrases (“remember the past”…”condemned to repeat it”) did not bring any results. So we are inclined to believe he never repeated Santayana in so many words. Churchill worried not so much that those who forget the past are condemned to relive it, but that the loss of the past would mean “the most thoughtless of ages. Every day headlines and short views.” (House of Commons, 16 November 1948)’
‘But perhaps his best remark on the subject was this: “When the situation was manageable it was neglected, and now that it is thoroughly out of hand we apply too late the remedies which then might have effected a cure. There is nothing new in the story. It is as old as the sibylline books. It falls into that long, dismal catalogue of the fruitlessness of experience and the confirmed unteachability of mankind. Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusion of counsel until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong–these are the features which constitute the endless repetition of history.”
—House of Commons, 2 May 1935
https://www.nationalchurchillmuseum.org/blog/churchill-quote-history/
Common sense is born of experience. This doesn’t pass very well from generation to generation. People whose lives were altered drastically by the Great Depression wanted to avoid debt at all costs, at least the ones I knew. They are all dead. So here we are in the biggest credit expansion ever, a lifetime later. This is why I think that what we are studying here (when we’re not distracted by politics) will never be seen again in our lifetimes.
Long term debt is like compulsive gambling. Because you weren’t satisfied with what you had earned and saved, you stay at the game until you lose it. This is common sense, or intuition, that our generation mostly lacks. They are bound to get some.
gul·li·ble
ˈɡələb(ə)l/
Add in lying hacks talking their book all over the internet and boatloads of dumb.borrowed.money and you’ve got a drifting raft of hopeless, hapless fools for a nation.
Disregard intuition and what you know to be true at your own peril.
here in the north & east sacramento suburbs a lot of homeowners are using PACE loans to repair and / or replace roofs while sometimes adding solar panels.
the only thing is they don’t understand, or don’t care that the loan goes to first place in line to payoff when a house is sold.
talking to a few neighbors reveals people are broke & pretty much have no choice if they want to replace their roof.
(by the time you add in all the front loaded junk fees on a conventional refi, the amount you actually pocket takes a big hit.)
just like the latest bond passed (measure H) locally for the San Juan school district for their “perpetual leaky” roofs, the underwriters take 50% upfront!
but don’t bother confronting the unionized teachers with the facts. because the last 3 school bond measures (in 10 years) passed . . . thanks to a majority of union teachers, cops, prison guards, firefighters, nurses, etc, in the state. they have essentially found an effective end-run around prop 13. but hey, as long as they get theirs. and its for the CHILDREN anyways, you heartless bastard. you’re not against CHILDREN now are you?!?
quid pro quo. vote for my union backed measure = I will do the same for yours later.
I tell ya what, if this bullshit succession movement succeeds I am leaving the state. it’s all pretty much overrun anyway by sneering russians, rude clannish hindus, passive-aggressive super cheap chinese, over-agressive confrontational arabs, snotty white soccer moms w/their wigger kids racing down the road ready to run you over & never even slow down or look back !!
have I left anyone out cause I’m an equal opportunity offensive deplorable who has reached his limit on people sponging off me!?
congratulations! all the takers of the world have arrived & sow discord among all the productive makers, refusing to rebuke that which they fled from and instead remake the US into their failed homelands.
Will the last person leaving California please turn off the lights.
“it’s all pretty much overrun anyway by sneering russians, rude clannish hindus, passive-aggressive super cheap chinese, over-agressive confrontational arabs, snotty white soccer moms w/their wigger kids racing down the road ready to run you over”
I’m not sure about ” rude clannish hindus” but I’m pretty sure you are not allowed to say “wigger”.
wiggers. haha. yeah, my kids got annoyed & hunkered down after I passed the umpteenth hoodie-wearing idiot in his beater car (as a nuclear mushroom cloud of vape escaped) and I promptly raised up my $4.99 WalMart sweater hood, slouched down stiff-arming the wheel in da corner o’ my hooptie, spendin dat dollah making me holla at the Lowe, Lowe, Lowe, Lowes . .
(notice how I brought it back around to housing-related there at the end!? coffee is for closers, make mine Folgers . . w/Irish creme)
“(notice how I brought it back around to housing-related there at the end!? coffee is for closers, make mine Folgers . . w/Irish creme)”
Yes I did!
I still bet you got the feeling a pitcher gets when the Home plate Umpire is looking at him right after he threw a little chin music.
va is handing out a raise and the gop is acting like it won’t raise taxes
lp.org for me
sneering russians, rude clannish hindus, passive-aggressive super cheap chinese, over-agressive confrontational arabs, snotty white soccer moms w/their wigger kids racing down the road ready to run you over & never even slow down or look back !!
have I left anyone out cause I’m an equal opportunity offensive deplorable who has reached his limit on people sponging off me!?
The standard stereotypes say that a lot of these people are well-educated and very hardworking. Many of them probably pay more tax than you do.
all the takers of the world have arrived & sow discord among all the productive makers
I thought the latest aggrieved narrative was that the immigrants stole all the JOBS?
So which one is it - are they “takers” who do not work, or are they job-thieving “productive makers” who work instead of natives?
aliens
Illegal aliens.
paying more taxes isn’t a benchmark of success.
ask warren buffet.
or his secretary.
OK, so you weren’t referring to government spending and taxes when you mentioned sponging. The people in question are sponging off you in some other way.
Sean Hannity argument?
Tell us what you think about the white men, hispanics and blacks in CA?
I can share a lot but I will keep my mouth shut.
without getting into a pointless off-topic bicker-battle, it is said a closed mouth attracts less flies.
on a serious note, unlike twitter, I will defend your right to free speech. hopefully you do likewise.
then again twitter IS a private company but the hypocrisy is blatant.
you’ll have to excuse me now while I go check on my flooded backyard.
(reminds of Feb 2006 when I was stuck inside due to the same torrential rains & discovered this blog . . to Ben’s everlasting regret! haha)
Have you ever experienced RageCage accommodations?
Wow, you’ve nailed a few issues! I hope you can find some peace and gratitude. I really like it here and see things much differently. The racial diversity is one the best parts for me.
Downtown Los Angeles Rental Rates Crater 7% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/downtown-los-angeles-ca/home-values/
Hate to be the bearer of bad news, Dan….
https://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/chinas-miracle-economy-is-nothing-more-than-fools-gold/2017/02/06/
Get ready for more extend and pretend from the ECB.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-07/greek-two-year-yields-approach-10-amid-imf-standoff-with-eu
China’s forex reserves dip below the psychologically important $3 trillion mark for the first time in six years.
http://www.scmp.com/news/article/2068798/chinas-forex-reserves-drop-below-us3-trillion-first-time-6-years
http://www.msn.com/en-au/money/homeandproperty/airbnb-landlord-hit-with-record-fine-in-amsterdam/ar-AAmGgXn
the thought of letting strangers stay @ my house is not appealing.
The book, “Ten Lost Years,” about Canada during the 30’s depression had a piece about a family renting their large home to a rich family, while the owner’s family occupied the basement, did the grounds maintenance, and the wife acted as a concierge maid.
Would az_wife cooperate?
China is going to have to smack down Bitcoin again to stem capital outflows.
http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-february-7-2017-2017-2
I’ve long wondered if Bitcoin was mostly a money smuggling scheme, but if “China’s hunger for bitcoin has been well documented with nearly 100% of bitcoin’s volume coming from the country.” is true, how can it be part of capital outflows?
how much longer can the central bank orgy be the bid for stocks and bonds?
charlottesville is 1/2 ghetto-see crime stats
HA pricing for selected few
Interesting for Charlottesville… isn’t C-ville *THE* hoity-toity place to retire, second only to Asheville?
Austin, TX Rental Rates Crater 7% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/austin-tx/home-values/
On the Market: Scott Pelley’s 7,532-square-foot gem of a house hits the market
By Meg Barone Updated 12:00 am, Tuesday, February 7, 2017
IMAGE 1 OF 12
DARIEN — The traditional Valentine’s Day gifts unusually involve red roses or a box of chocolates, and because the day celebrates romance some may get a diamond ring to seal their love.
The more creative gift givers might want to think instead about a more impressive “bauble,” one that’s measured in square footage and number of rooms rather than karats and clarity. By those measures the 7,532-square-foot, 14 room classic colonial house at 5 Peach Hill Road should be considered.
The colonial-style mini-mansion of award-winning veteran television journalist Scott Pelley has come up for sale at $3.985 million. The Texas-born “CBS Evening News” anchor and long-time “Sixty Minutes” correspondent has posted for sale the house he purchased in August of 2007.
http://www.dariennewsonline.com/realestate/article/On-the-Market-Scott-Pelley-s-7-532-square-foot-10912338.php
Is it the market, or just this house?
“LOOK! A WINE CELLAR WITH MORE THAN A DOZEN BOTTLES IN IT; EVENTUALLY, BUILDERS WILL FIGURE OUT THAT NO ONE USES HOME THEATRES, WINE CELLARS OR WHIRLPOOL TUBS, AND WILL PUT THE SPACE TO BETTER, OR AT LEAST DIFFERENT USE.
EVENTUALLY.” (Sorry for the caps, I cut and pasted from the caption below the wine cellar photo.)
https://www.christopherfountain.com/blog/2017/2/7/is-it-the-market-or-just-this-house
And here’s another one in R’side, jeff:
Same question, the house or the market?
https://www.christopherfountain.com/blog/2017/2/7/same-question-i-suppose-the-house-or-the-market
on the lower economic end are those derelict tennis courts with rotting nets & cracked surfaces in the barrio apts metro areas.
Huh
IIRC I went to school with a kid who grew up in that Willowmere Ave house.
“The colonial-style mini-mansion of award-winning veteran television journalist Scott Pelley has come up for sale at $3.985 million.”
If you are out there Pelley or Pelley’s Realtor here is my offer.
$985.00
The offer is contingent on the home passing inspection and you leaving the round rug and table at the bottom of the staircase.
I’m outbidding you. $98,500.
Looks like a Snow is a thing of the past Global Warming kinda day for the #notmysuperbowlchampions parade.
‘Boston is experiencing a surge of building permit applications, the likes of which haven’t been seen in the last 60 years. In the past couple of years, over 5,100 apartment units have been built, with another 7,200 apartment units currently under construction that will soon be on the market, according to a recent market report from commercial real estate data firm REIS.’
‘Most of these new buildings concentrate around central and south Boston with the majority of them in the high-end luxury condominium or apartment category’
It’s a 72 year high in San Francisco, and some here say not enough is being built. And there are more cranes in Australia’s three biggest cities than all of north America.
Debt and leverage! Have you seen the swiss national banks balance sheet with all the US tech stocks? Makes you have a lot of confidence in valuations doesn’t it?
I guess most of the BOJ’s funny money is making it back to our market in treasuries after they buy most of japans bonds.It seems these currency pairs are critical for propping up valuations.
Two comments:
1. Places like SF/Boston/NYC/LA, etc. have benefited in recent years from foreign capital flows…foreign capital continues to flow, and won’t go to secondary markets…they want to invest in what they deem “primary, gateway markets”, which is a pretty limited number of places.
2. SF is building too many luxury apartment units. California as a whole is not building enough housing units. The last estimate I saw was that CA housing starts were approximately 100,000 for 2016. There are lots of ways to put this in context.
The estimate for the number of housing units needed per year in the state is approximately 200,000 to account for population growth…so we are building half of that number.
Another way to look at it is in the context of the whole country. The whole of the US started about 1.2MM housing units (shy of the 1.6MM steady state need). So, CA was about 8.5% of the US starts, but represents about 12% of the people, and has a population growth rate slightly higher than the US as a whole (at the last measure I saw).
Coming back around from an estimation standpoint…12% (CA’s share of population) multiplied by 1.6MM housing units (the estimated steady-state annual need), gets you a total of 192k housing units needed in CA annually. Housing starts in CA were approximately half that in 2016.
In other words, CA is not building enough housing overall.
SF is building too much of one particular kind of housing, in part, due to foreign capital’s desire to be in “primary markets/gateway cities”.
So, CA was about 8.5% of the US starts, but represents about 12% of the people, and has a population growth rate slightly higher than the US as a whole (at the last measure I saw).
It’s a population growth that can’t afford. In balance those who can afford leaving this place.
4.4 million excess empty and defaulted housing units have a tendency to push rental rates and housing prices lower. Much lower.
You pick a new number every day Housing Analyst - whatever happened to your 20M number that you stuck with for a long time?
At least you are slightly more closer to correct with this one.
Well it’s quite simple my good friend. 25 million nationally. 4.4 million in CA.
I had some tire kickers come by my open house today. They tried to lowball me so I dont them to leave.
‘They tried to lowball me so I dont them to leave.’
What what the do!
Yeah, whatever happened to Califoh??
Um, those lowball offers are the new market value, i.e. what a creditworthy buyer is prepared to pay. But go ahead and stick with your entitlement number.
“They tried to lowball me so I dont them to leave.”
That happened to me with 2 hot chicks in 1987.
calif-oh changed his name to “new attitude,” which turned into “natty ice dude” because of his liberal views.
lol@donk
Oh, so it’s 25M now, is it?
Nice . . . you’re just as bad as the permabulls, HA.
Data my good friend. Stick with the data.
https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtab7.xls
Current link (to this quarter):
https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtab8.xlsx
So, how exactly do you get 25MM excess, when clearly:
1. As of Q4, the vacancy total was 17.2MM; AND
2. Some level of vacancy is normal (not all the 17.2MM is “excess”). This metric is commonly at 10% or more. At 10%, the “excess” is down from 25MM to about 3.5MM. And when you take into consideration the different categories (some of which are driven by demographics), the actual “excess” is less than that.
And then you have to ask “where is this supposed excess located?”
CB’s data is merely a govt estimate. We both know it’s understated by double digt percentages. Now add in the millions of excess empty and defaulted houses held up by foreclosure moratoriums.
‘Waiting Lists For Affordable Housing, But Retail Space Sits Empty’
‘Some North County mixed-use developments that have been in the planning stages for years are now running into problems. In San Marcos, the Promenade at Creekside opened last year with shop fronts at street level and two stories of affordable housing above. While the housing now has a waiting list of 700, most of the storefronts at street level are vacant.’
Waiting to see what happens once all the new mixed use opens up around Sunset / La Cienega in West Hollywood, CA. Looks like they’re finally putting the finishing touches on the buildings.
Sunset Blvd is already rife with empty empty commercial real estate and businesses that do come in don’t stay open longer than a few months.
Me too, keeping an eye on this monstrosity, and the Frank Gehry mixed-use they want to build on Sunset and Crescent Heights. It’s eerie to walk past the empty retail and restaurants at Sunset Plaza while they build 40,000 sq ft of additional retail and restaurants next door. I remember laughing out loud when I first heard their $2000 per sq ft pricing for the condos.
For Weho condos: “According to real-estate firm The Agency… The average sales price was $891,000, a 42.8% increase compared with the same period in 2015.” Nothing to see here, move along, totally normal.
http://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/36299-luxury-condos-coming-to-west-hollywood-s-sunset-strip
Ben, you are talking your book? (Talking up the impeding housing collapse while downplaying the growing inflation concerns?)
LOL
Are you?
Let’s let’s bomb Putin.
My book? I don’t have a book.
Being cute, I see. LOL
The Falling Housing Price book? Or the Falling Rental Rate book?
I’m seriously. No book, no stock picks, no nuttin.
u should write a book on lowballing.
If you start your “Confessions of an FB” tell-all, azdude, you should have the final chapter written just in time for the firesale on your shack.
Such a deal! http://www.farrellsmyth.com/property/1130-Marsh-Street-San-Luis-Obispo-93401/CentralCoastCA/1061785
$2.1m, no side windows, no yard. Just like NYC only wages avg $63k per household.
I had to look this up: powder bath.
‘The approximate monthly Principal & Interest payment for this property would be $9,859.13. This payment is based on a 30-year loan at a fixed rate of 4.75% with a down payment of $210,000. Actual lender interest rates and loan programs may vary.’
I think at least 3 are sold, probably for fake Yuan.
“I had to look this up: powder bath.”
Including one to the re-model easily adds $100k of value.
Just like NYC only wages avg $63k per household.
I thought you said there were plenty of six figure jobs in California.
yep, not in the beautiful small towns on the central coast. Ya gotta pay to play here.
$$ in:
Silicon Valley, OC, LA, SF, SD….
The salaries have six figures and the house prices have seven figures.
Even in those cities most make close to 50k not 100k.
If you don’t earn a bubble salary, the way to keep your nose above water in California is to own real estate and profit from the perpetual rise in valuation. It has been that way for decades.
“Just like NYC only wages avg $63k per household.”
That’s not a wage-earner’s crib; more likely a retired tech manager from Los Angeles/San Diego or the San Francisco Bay Area. The cotton just doesn’t grow that tall on the Central Coast.
I was reading Naseem Taleb’s interview with TheHindu. Found in ZH.
One thing crossed my mind. I have said same things (not in exact same words of course) over the years. How come he’s world renowned Black swan guy and I am just a semi-successful IT business owner? What gives? Where’s my big dirty?
Taleb must have a better agent than you do.
He just must be a better person than you. Someone posted a link to some research last week showing that rich people have better character than the rest of us.
Reading comprehension is a weakness if that was your interpretation of the links.
“Reading comprehension is a weakness if that was your interpretation of the links.”
That’s gonna leave a mark.
Allen, TX Housing Prices Crater 14% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/allen-tx/market-trends/
Has anyone read the book On The Beach or seen the movie version? Despite my jokes about the west coast of the US glowing in the dark, this sounds very un-good. Double plus un-good.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-07/new-radiation-level-fukushima-dwarfs-highest-peak-chernobyl
Bloviating about global warming when there’s a more immediate problem.
Yes. We grew up thinking this was a likely fate.
These are the 20 best US cities to live in
1. Austin, Texas
2. Denver, Colorado
3. San Jose, California
4. Washington, D.C.
5. Fayetteville, Arkansas
6. Seattle, Washington
7. Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina
8. Boston, Massachusetts
9. Des Moines, Iowa
10. Salt Lake City, Utah
11. Colorado Springs, Colorado
12. Boise, Idaho
13. Nashville, Tennessee
14. Charlotte, North Carolina
15. Dallas, Texas
16. San Francisco, California
17. Minneapolis, Minnesota
18. Madison, Wisconsin
19. Grand Rapids, Michigan
20. Houston, Texas
http://www.today.com/home/2017-us-best-cities-live-according-us-news-world-report-t107829
Where is Santa Barbara and Santa Fe, NM They must factor COL heavily and weather not so much.
too each his own. the top 11 are crowded nightmares, with lots of crime. Got traffic?
more like:
Aspen, CO. Readers’ rating: 75.9. …
Jackson, WY. Readers’ rating: 76.1 (tie) …
Santa Barbara, CA. Readers’ rating: 76.1 (tie) …
Newport, RI. Readers’ rating: 76.4. …
Telluride, CO. Readers’ rating: 77.6. …
Napa, CA. Readers’ rating: 78.1. …
Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA. Readers’ rating: 79.1. …
Santa Fe, NM. Readers’ rating: 81.2. Population: 68,000.
The 10 Best Small Cities in America: Readers’ Choice Awards 2013 …
2 hours each day of sunny
commute doesn’t mean jack $hit.
Seriously? Denver is #2? And was #1 last year?
What kind of metrics do they use?
Facebook likes by midwestern millennials?
Des Moines?!?!?! LOL.
Hello there!
My dental hygienist advised me to flip mobile homes this week, so I thought I’d swing by and throw in the “shoeshine” moment.
We’ve been “owning” in Tampa area beach community for about 10 months now. Paid $237k and a house similar to ours just sold for $375k. I told my wife we should sell and activate our version of the Oil City Plan - small cities within an hour of Atlanta like Rome, Dahlonega, Cartersville, etc.
We have to own for two years to sell with no tax hit, yes?
It’s been mostly uneventful. The two storms over the summer pushed several inches of water into the garage, but I’m used to that so everything is about 8 inches off the ground - no problems. We’ve done a ton of improvements, the largest being hurricane impact windows. During TS Colin a waterspout came ashore literally on the house — all of the trees were sideways and I couldn’t hear anything outside - the windows are unbelievable. No emergency repairs yet. An unbelievable amount of houses in my neighborhood are owned by out of state investor corps. I’m putting in a new fence and two of my neighbors are renters and it took forever to get through to their owners/managers. Both NYC based.
My wife was promoted, so… new tax bracket, big IRS tab, and loss of basically all of our credits… other than that, kids are great and all is well.
Oh yeah, I turned 40 this past year so I took my family swimming in the Everglades and then hiked Mt. Marcy in NY with high school buds. Overdosing on nature-
Related images:
http://picpaste.com/IMG_4057-DsqnI6gr.jpg
http://picpaste.com/IMG_4085-8vf1NP1z.jpg
http://picpaste.com/DSC08785-B6zEVBZq.jpg
http://picpaste.com/IMG_4590-xxAsAXFM.jpg
Hi, Muggy! Good to hear from you and thanks for the pics. Where do you go swimming in the Everglades??? I mean, without encountering gators or snakes? The one pic kind of looks like the Ichetucknee River, but that’s North Florida.
Anyhoo, I’m glad to hear you are doing well in your new digs, I was wondering how it was going. I kind of agree with you on activating your version of the Oil City plan. Get it while you can, is what I say.
Anyway, thanks for checking in.
Swimming in the ‘Glades — it was amazing.
When departed on a chartered Swamp Buggy from the Concho Bilie Trailhead in Big Cypress National Preserve. The trailhead is about 7 miles north of Tamiami just outside Ochopee. We went about four miles into the preserve and got down in about 2-4 feet of water in a slough. There is no protection against any wildlife. You simply need to scout from the buggy and stay close. It was an incredible experience and we choose September since it is usually the wettest month. The water was spring clear and nice and cool. Per the driver, truly wild gators will be gone before you’re near. In fact, the only wildlife we saw? Birds. It’s the fed gators that approach humans. At one point we were about 100 yards ahead of the buggy, but the water was crystal clear and we had 300 yards of visibility.
I’ll post a few more pics in a minute.
http://picpaste.com/DSC08676-jiWZ3xET.jpg
http://picpaste.com/DSC08700-W7b7TOKX.jpg
http://picpaste.com/DSC08732-ahv8dys8.jpg
http://picpaste.com/DSC08744-0ebaoaLO.jpg
http://picpaste.com/IMG_5712-BQaSFo75.jpg
The color comes from the caprock.
What up Dawg!
Great to her you sounding great. House, kids, wife and even turning 40 all sounds good.
Impact windows are the way to go, I have pre-drilled panels that were code when my place was built in 2005 but are still a PITA to put up.
Anyway
Really Good to hear from you
The artist formerly known as
UNKNOWN TENANT
and
jeff saturday
Hey, dude! Great to hear form you and thanks again for taking my call. As it turns out, I may have a guy that can tunnel a bit into each side of the house when the pipe replacement needs to happen.
The windows were an awesome investment. $900 off my insurance bill, $450 fed tax energy credit, local utility energy credit $400, utility bill cut in half, silent, and just walk away when hurricane comes. I was researching panels when I thought, screw it, let’s go for the whole thing.
You made the right call on the Impact Windows. Besides all the valid points you mentioned I have neighbors that still haven’t taken down there back panels from the storm that missed this summer.
Anyway I’m glad it has all worked out well and you’re not having to stress out (like I used to) about having to deal with moving your family, changing schools, unreasonable landlords etc.
Call if there’s anything I can help you with and stay happy.
phony
Meanwhile, spec mega-mansions with an asking price of $250 million are going up in Los Angeles. Heckova job, Bernanke and Yellen.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/250m-los-angeles-home-most-expensive-listed-us-064744920.html
Meanwhile, in flyover country….
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2017-new-unemployment/
Those with no experience paying off debt max their credit and “live the dream”.
Kirkland, WA Housing Prices Nosedive 24% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/kirkland-wa/market-trends/
You truly are an idiot, HA.
Your link directly contradicts you ridiculous claim. The link shows that the median list price is down 24%, BUT so also is the median square footage, down 23%. The price per square foot didn’t drop at all.
So all you are showing is that the houses selling now are smaller than the houses that sold a year ago.
Big whoop.
Remember those $1.75 trillion in toxic-waste mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) the Fed took off the hands of its bankster pals during the 2008 financial crisis? Now it has to decide what to do with them. Somehow middle class taxpayers will end up with the smelly end of the stick.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-06/the-mortgage-bond-whale-that-everyone-is-suddenly-worried-about
Wonder what China’s burn rate on dollars will be trying to defend the Yuan?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-07/china-reserves-edge-below-3-trillion-as-yuan-pressure-increases
Multiple bailouts later and despite Draghi’s “Whatever it takes,” Greece and the Eurozone are still unfixed, despite trillions of printing press stimulus gifted to the banksters that caused the crisis in the first place.
I am Jack’s complete lack of surprise.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/07/eu-faces-crisis-imf-warns-greek-debts-explosive-path/
“Investors” who buy monetized debt that is going to be printed away by the Keynesian fraudsters at the Fed and central banks are fools.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/07/bond-market-finds-plenty-to-worry-about-.html
Doobie Brothers ~ What A fool Believes (1979)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJe1iUuAW4M
Don’t Fear the 20%