Investors Have Overpaid Severely And Foolishly
A report from the Wall Street Journal. “Trulia findings point to a critical imbalance in the market: There is a significant and growing shortage of lower-priced homes and a glut of high-end ones. Sales of new and existing homes were slow in December, in part because of a shortage of inventory at prices buyers can afford. Even as the economy strengthens and first-time buyers appear to be coming back into the market, they are being confronted with an abundance of listings they can’t afford and few they can. ‘The big, high-level takeaway is that most Americans are looking for a starter or trade-up home but there are a ton of premium homes on the market,’ said Felipe Chacon, a housing analyst at Trulia.”
From Bisnow on New York. “New York City is still the No. 1 destination for foreign capital in the world, according to this year’s AFIRE rankings, but it is no longer an environment in which foreign money — particularly from China — will buy anything in the market at any price. This year, China has clamped down on outbound foreign investment, and firms caught flouting the new laws will be punished harshly, China First Capital CEO Peter Fuhrman said. While most New Yorkers in commercial real estate are aware of the capital slowdown, Fuhrman said they are probably not taking it seriously enough.”
“‘I have the perception that the full weight and severity of these capital controls hadn’t been fully felt here,’ Fuhrman said. ‘It’d be fair to say that the Chinese central government dropped a financial bomb on its businesses.’”
“One of the Chinese government’s chief concerns when instituting the investment restrictions, Fuhrman said, is over outbound investors getting fleeced while paying record-breaking prices. ‘A concern of Chinese regulators is their investors have been really bad buyers,’ Fuhrman said. ‘This can sadly be seen more and more in the larger real estate deals they have done. What they are extremely concerned about is just about every acquisition the Chinese have made, is they have overpaid severely and foolishly, and that has spurred a loss of a lot of Chinese sovereign wealth.’”
The Real Deal on Florida. “An Argentine investor looking to buy luxury real estate in South Florida can expect to pay 403 percent more today than in 2007. That’s how much value the Argentine peso has lost against the dollar, according to a newly released Esslinger Wooten Maxwell report. A Venezuelan buyer would likely have to pay 365 percent more today than in 2007, and a Russian buyer would have to shell out 149 percent more. The statistics explain why the once robust flow of foreign investors purchasing luxury condos and single family homes has slowed to a trickle.”
“Miami Dade’s luxury condo inventory, defined as $1 million and up, skyrocketed 69 percent from the fourth quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter 2016, according to EWM. At the same time, $1 million-plus condos only accounted for 4.5 percent of total condo sales in Miami-Dade during the fourth quarter of last year. In Broward, luxury inventory rose 34 percent. At the end of 2016, condo prices dropped 21 percent, year-over-year. Miami-Dade is facing a 47-month supply, and when it comes to condos priced between $2 million and $4.9 million, Miami-Dade has a 58-month supply of inventory and Broward County has a 76-month supply.”
“At $5 million and above, Miami-Dade has a 108-month (or nine-year) supply of condos and Broward has an eye-popping 19 years, or 228 months, worth of supply. EWM Realty International CEO Ron Shuffield said the inventory glut and the slower sales pace is putting pressure on sellers to slash their asking prices. ‘Many of our sellers are coming to that realization,’ he said. ‘We’ve had a lot of success [telling] many of our sellers that they need to reduce prices.’”
The Mercury News in California. “Santa Clara County’s commercial real estate market suffered a slump in 2016 compared to the white-hot year of 2015, but the sector should bounce back this year, according to a new forecast. ‘After the biggest year on record in 2015 for office activity, we sort of had nowhere to go but down,’ said Jeff Fredericks, executive managing director of the San Jose office of Colliers International, a commercial realty brokerage that issued the new report. ‘We predicted that office activity would come down to earth, and so it did.’”
“The report did point to a troubling trend of rising sublease space that is appearing as tenants vacate offices that they had already rented. At the end of 2016, Santa Clara County had 2.6 million square feet of office space available for sublease — double the 1.3 million square feet that were available at the outset of 2016, Colliers reported. Sublease space represented 29.8 percent of the office space available at the end of 2016, a huge jump from the 19 percent figure at the beginning of 2016.”
“In a sign of a possible bubble for commercial real estate — and overbuilding — about 5.7 million square feet of Santa Clara County office buildings that are completed shells or are under construction are not leased and have no commitments from occupants. A year ago, that uncommitted figure was 1.7 million square feet. ‘There are cracks in the armor,’ Fredericks said. ‘But it is still a fundamentally strong commercial real estate market in Silicon Valley.’”
‘‘A concern of Chinese regulators is their investors have been really bad buyers,’ Fuhrman said. ‘This can sadly be seen more and more in the larger real estate deals they have done. What they are extremely concerned about is just about every acquisition the Chinese have made, is they have overpaid severely and foolishly’
‘just about every acquisition the Chinese have made’
Around a year ago I posted a discussion with NYC brokers. In it they kinda giggled at how unprofessional Chinese buyers were and asked each other if these guys had any normal knowledge about real estate. The conclusion was they didn’t, because in China buildings were a commodity or something.
This was just posted on the last thread:
Albuquerquedan
‘My sources on China are multiple including people from both China and Taiwan. China is still rising, the government is actually an impediment to that but nevertheless the intelligence of the people and the still low wages for quality people means the Chinese will continue to close the wage gap between us and them and that means the country will continue to grow.’
Dan, have you thought about stand up? You could wear this get-up:
The Chinese have moved from making socks to these jobs. Much higher pay which creates more internal demand:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/it/Boom-spurs-SAP-to-open-cloud-data-hub-in-China/shdaily.shtml
Are they wearing their jammies?
I have seen Americans do this even at the Hotel Del Coronado.
Buy our stuff, or we’ll kill you.
Meet the bag holder.
He probably overpaid for the bag he’s holding. But I guarantee he overpaid for the pajamas. Even if he got them for a dollar, that would be too much. Nice color coordination though.
I live in a suburb of Los Angeles. My city has very few Asians in it although cities nearby are mostly Asian. Some like Diamond Bar and Arcadia are some of the most expensive burgs in SoCal.
We just had an Asian family move two doors down. They have all kinds of clutter and ugly decorations in the front yard. They are also growing turnips in the front walkway. It seems they have no conception or care about how to fit into the neighborhood. Two weeks ago, they spilled paint in the front yard and the paint stained the rain gutters up to two blocks away. On top of that, they have four of the most annoying dogs on the planet. They’re doing a great job of assimilating.
Looks like an open-air People of Wal-Mart.
If the fuzz ever confiscates your computer, imagine their bewilderment when they discover your “old Asians in pajamas” collection.
I don’t save these photos.
First of all, the SAP blurb is basically server farm infrastructure, but “cloud” sounds exotic. Then consider the source, a Chinese rag certainly wouldn’t exaggerate, nah…
Check out this video. Chinese culture has a long way yet to go.
“Why I RESFUSE to buy property in China”
https://youtu.be/_lAoTBVTTO8
… says the Chinese media. OK.
A lot of them may be little more than golf carts but they are eating up the existing lithium and driving up the price. Still do not see how Musk makes money on $37,500 cars when $100,000 cars do not generate a consistent profit:
http://insideevs.com/china-loves-cheap-locally-made-electric-cars-tesla-far-too-expensive-to-be-successful-there/
Demand my good friend. There is no demand. Just like oil and housing.
‘Oil prices fall on bloated U.S. fuel inventories, stalling China demand’
‘The declines came on the back of unexpectedly big increases in U.S. fuel inventories, as reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday. Crude inventories rose by 14.2 million barrels in the week to February 3 to 503.6 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.5 million barrel increase.’
“If the official data from the U.S. Department of Energy were to show a similar inventory build … U.S. crude oil stocks would be catapulted to almost a record level,” Commerzbank said in a note.’
‘Goldman Sachs analysts said that the data pointed to “U.S. gasoline demand falling sharply by 460,000 barrels per day (bpd) year on year in January, with such declines only previously (seen) during recessions.”
‘Prices also came under pressure from signs of slowing demand from the world’s biggest energy consumer. China’s 2016 oil demand grew at its slowest pace in at least three years, Reuters calculations based on official data showed.’
““U.S. gasoline demand falling sharply by 460,000 barrels per day (bpd) year on year in January, with such declines only previously (seen) during recessions.”
Now, that’s interesting.
We have a very mild winter, so I’d expect a fall in demand for heating oil and natural gas. But gasoline? Mild weather would lead to more, not less, driving.
“…with such declines only previously (seen) during recessions.”
Rutabaga!
cloud data hub based economy.
Now that right there is funny.
I saw an article recently about the successful analysis of tomatoes DNA to identify what makes them taste sweet.
Apart from good news for consumers, what struck me was that the U.S. based scientists joined forces with Chinese-based DNA sequencing data farms, who performed this analysis for them.
I remember how several years ago biology scientists from Canada were complaining that many such jobs are moving to China.
It’s extremely shortsighted to underestimate the Chinese progress in developing its technology and science. They are not at the U.S. level yet, but they are moving in the right direction. Unlike us.
All our best scientists get hired by Wall St to invent more financial products.
-> “I saw an article recently about the successful analysis of tomatoes DNA to identify what makes them taste sweet.”
Let me guess. Tomatoes have some sugar in them.
“All our best scientists get hired by Wall St to invent more financial products.”
Can’t wait ’till they’re lined up, palms up.
Let me guess. Tomatoes have some sugar in them.
They identified what makes them smell good and taste good, not like plastic. Now they can breed for it.
That’s cool nychk. Identifying the fundamental reasons for things is a virtuous endeavor. I was just being a jerk. hehe.
I’ll keep this brief.
If you haven’t been to China, often, your sources are as worthless as the old preschool sex scandal from the 80’s and the ‘ghost typing’ caregivers supposedly could do for their quadriplegic and severely mentally incapacitated charges.
When you go to China, you’ll see 5 star hotels with 300 dollar a square foot marble held in Avewith a common pine board. 5000 dollar stainless steel screen doors on 300 dollar mud shacks. You’ll see no signs of the 20th century on streets just three blocks off the show-way, even inarge cities. You’ll see people hired specifically to ride elevators so the buildings look bustling.
Be the fool you need to be, or go take a look for yourself.
Chinese sources?
Your Chinese sources look in the toilet and say that their turd looks like a cloud that looks like a poodle….
“You’ll see people hired specifically to ride elevators so the buildings look bustling.”
Haha… this sounds like the “real” China.
Ben,
The Chinese seem to be more into gambling than actual investing. China’s housing market -mostly condos I’m told- is an example. When ANY investment is viewed as ‘gambling’, look out. Remember CNBC back in ‘the day’? The Money Babes? Burnette, Bartiromo, Regan, and more? They would blithely speak of “placing bets”. Not sure about anyone else, but I got it. I sold all my stock market investments in Jan 2007. Investments are not bets, but some Chinese do not seem to understand this. Still, upon reflection, many people in general don’t get it. Due diligence, ROI, company leverage, product marketability, product demand, production capability, etc. You know,… investing.
Regards,
Roidy
‘The predicted upswing in commercial real estate in the South Bay comes with a backdrop of a robust economy in California, said Christopher Thornberg, principal economist with Beacon Economics, who spoke at the event. “California is on fire,” Thornberg said. “California is still leading the charge, despite all of our business unfriendliness.”
You go Chris, just don’t choke on that glut of buildings. Man, is the pile of crow gonna be tall when rental watch reads this.
‘In a sign of a possible bubble for commercial real estate — and overbuilding — about 5.7 million square feet of Santa Clara County office buildings that are completed shells or are under construction are not leased and have no commitments from occupants’
See, they can build in California, they just don’t know what to build. Tens of thousands of overpriced bay aryan housing units on the way too.
once the optimism starts to fail folks will be all running to the exits at once.
It is astounding the stock market has held up this long. It seems unbelievable.
It seems like everyone keeps trying to short the market and then central banks come in and force the shorts to cover . Its a pattern that has been repeated numerous times over this bull market.
Seems like it is accelerating too. The way we’re going, it will take half as long to reach DOW 30K vs 20K, and another half as long to reach 40K, then 80K. Hooray.
Or, something in the system might break, and we could wake up one morning to DOW 100K. Overnight.
Gonna have to open a 24/7 BBQ Crow joint…
“bay aryan”
wow! thats a blast from the past
I remember those f’ed company stories! Then someone figured out who the writer was based on an article from a Acura owners magazine or something and the writer seemed to disappear. Good times.
I’ve noted my concern about Silicon Valley office for quite some time.
I don’t like office generally anyway…
It’s a good thing you don’t have Chinese pajama people foolishly over paying out there or your comps would be way out of whack. Maybe you can do like Calgary and think about turning these empty offices into housing? That’s it, Silicon Valley, the Calgary of the west!
lol
My biggest concern about SV office is that I’m hearing stories of “dark” office space being leased…meaning tenants are leasing space in advance of their need. This masks the true vacancy in the market, and encourages development when none may be needed. A number I heard a while back was that the “official” vacancy rate was about 5%, but when you add in this “dark” space, it goes to about 20%.
Then you have Apple’s new spaceship campus being built, where I’ve heard the claim that it is all new space for them (expanding the business, not replacing existing space), and I call BS. A ton of their existing space will be put on the market as sublease space…you don’t add 2.8MM square feet and simply fill it with fresh employees–they will be emptying out lots of “B” office in Cupertino and elsewhere.
Then factor in the changing nature of office use (rather than needing 4/1,000 parking, new tenants need 5 or 6/1,000…because they are cramming more people in less space), and you effectively are adding supply without building a single square foot of space, and you can easily see how office is getting ahead of itself in SV.
And add on top of all of that the fact that I think more “unicorns” are going to be shown to be Shetland Ponies, or in the worst case dogfood, and more tenants like Box, that might have a real business, are going to find that they don’t need their whole headquarters building…and they will look for subtenants to fill what they don’t need
Sublease space goes up, rents go down, new buildings have real problems…no thank you.
In general, optimism breeds development. Rampant optimism breeds rampant development. Whenever I see rampant optimism (which has been the story behind SV office, and luxury apartments in SF), a flashing red light goes off in my brain.
Apple already plans to sell SpaceCase City and lease back a small square footage for their own use.
The problem with gluts, overbuilding, overpaying on this scale is it can only be worked out by recession. A recession in real estate at least. Then we find out what these shacks are worth.
u have to keep confidence up by not allowing prices to go down.
Do u want a bank run when there is not near enough physical cash to give folks their money?
The problem with gluts, overbuilding, overpaying on this scale is it can only be worked out by recession. A recession in real estate at least. Then we find out what these shacks are worth.
I agree with this statement generally.
I think where we disagree is on the overbuilding part.
From what I’ve seen, there is overbuilding in some product types in some markets, but overall, construction of new buildings has been much more constrained than prior cycles.
You point to massive amounts of apartment construction generally, and extreme amounts of luxury apartments being built in certain markets. These are undisputed facts.
I point to overall housing starts (multi-family plus single-family) being well below the long-term average. Also undisputed facts.
Does this point to a real estate recession for luxury apartments in certain markets? Yes.
Does this point to a real estate recession for ALL apartments? That is more debatable. From a supply of rental housing vs. its demand, I would say “no”. Considering we are at an all-time low for apartment cap rates, there is certainly the potential for investors to have overpaid.
Does this set of facts point to a glut of single family that will need to be worked off in a single-family recession? Nope.
The same kind of analysis can be done with office (in Silicon Valley vs. broadly), retail, and Industrial (big box vs. multi-tenant incubator; different locations, etc.).
My point is that during the bubble, it was pretty easy to paint a broad brush over the entire housing market and say that it was all going to be bad. You, I, and many on this board painted it with that same brush.
The same kind of broad brush analysis could have been done during the early 90’s commercial real estate boom.
Today, there is much more differentiation among property types and locations…that broad brush is harder to justify…it is much more of a “sharp shooter’s” market, as opposed to buying (or selling) a broad trend.
-> “The problem with gluts, overbuilding, overpaying on this scale is it can only be worked out by recession. A recession in real estate at least. Then we find out what these shacks are worth.”
This assumes they allow a recession to happen, officially anyway. What happened during the last bubble — prices collapsed, 30% - 40%? More or less depending on region. The price deflation spooked them, so much, they unleashed the massive flood of QE money to stop it. And it worked — here we are, just a few years later, fully restored and back to bubble-mode again. They re-inflated it pretty darn well.
The most important thing is that the number in the computer that says how much your house is worth — that number cannot ever go down.
Their playbook precedent is set. The solution to any recession or decline in property prices is to unleash more money to re-inflate.
Remember Yellen said a few months ago — the Fed is willing and ready to “shock the population into an inflationary view of the future”, if they ever think that prices are going down. They proved they can do it.
Yellen is just a few months from being canned.
Any guesses on who might replace her? I’m not intimately familiar with all the Fed governors, assuming they promote from within. Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen have all been the same overall policy and strategy. I wonder if a real “hawk” like Volcker will get in. My opinion, I think there’s way too much riding on everything, to shake things up at the Fed. My guess is the next Fed chief will be more of the same. But who knows!
No, but better to get the recession right away so it can be pinned on those who caused this mess. Why else would they have canceled the HUD free-cheese first thing?
‘Online real estate leader Zillow Group likely will post a “modest” Q4 beat, when the company reports its earnings results after the close Tuesday, with its 2017 outlook likely also to modestly beat on the top line, despite historically conservative guidance from the company, Benchmark analyst Daniel Kurnos said Monday.’
‘Kurnos maintained a buy rating on Zillow stock, though he said in a research note that “the apparent housing bubble and rising interest rate environment” are medium-term concerns.’
Yellen looks like she could bake some really good cookies. I kinda wish she was my grandma.
I just got back from there. For every 1 “luxury” car I swear I saw 9 beaters. And SF still smells like p!ss.
Dear SNL,
Nine tenths are beaters and SF smells bad? Visit the Big Easy. All are beaters, and it smells worse. Good food and great music, though.
Regards,
Roidy
smells like p!ss
This what suburbanites say about every city that they visit. Or maybe all of the rain in Seattle and Portland gives the city a good wash on a regular basis.
I’m not a suburbanite. Portland has its moments, but nothing compares to a stroll down Market Street in SF.
This what suburbanites say about every city that they visit.
Interesting observation. If they all say it, there’s probably a reason. Maybe the locals don’t notice kind of like old people stop noticing the pet smells in their house?
I used to work on a dairy–also raised other smelly animals.
You definitely become accustomed to it.
We used to get pretty funny looks when we would splurge on a lunch at Sizzler…in our dairy gear.
I suppose we just stunk to them…lol.
Yeah, I’ve spent time on a dairy farm :-). I just think it’s funny if some city centers have the same issue as a farm.
‘At $5 million and above, Miami-Dade has a 108-month (or nine-year) supply of condos and Broward has an eye-popping 19 years, or 228 months, worth of supply’
Is this a lot? I seem to remember hearing 6 months is a balanced market.
“Normal”. Uh huh…
Index Forecasts 10.3% Home Price Increase in San Diego for 12 Month Period
http://sdbj.com/news/2017/feb/07/index-forecasts-103-home-price-increase-san-diego-/
San Diego home prices posted moderate gains in December and are poised to rise substantially in 2017, according to the latest CoreLogic Home Price Index.
Local home prices rose by 0.3 percent that month, ending 2017 with a 6 percent year-over-year increase, the Irvine-based real estate information company reported Feb. 7.
By comparison, the Los Angeles home market inched up 0.1 percent in December and San Francisco’s declined by .01. Percent. Year over year, their respective gains were 6.8 percent and 4 percent.
CoreLogic deemed San Diego’s home market “normal,” same as in L.A. and San Francisco, unlike the “overvalued” label it applied to the Denver, Houston, Miami and Washington, D.C., markets.
The company forecast a 10.3 percent home price increase in San Diego between December 2016 and December 2017. It expects the San Francisco market to jump 12 percent during the same period, and the L.A. market to rise 7.1 percent.
Denver is overpriced, and remember, median household income here is less than $60,000:
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2017/02/08/percentage-of-single-homebuyers-plummets-in-denver.html
But everyone in the city is stoned so they overpay for housing.
my garage is for rent.
Cool narrative brony. Except that I rent for a third of the cost of buying.
Apt….
You catch a similar article in the Denver post about unaffordability in Denver are? Rampant in these parts!
Mid-Town Manhattan Rental Rates Crater 10% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/midtown-new-york-ny/home-values/
if you are a tree cutter right now you can pretty much name your price in N. Cal right now with all the storm damage to homes.
thinking about making some quick $$ with my Harbour Freight $39.00 green chain saw, like roofing carpetbaggers did after Andrew in FL 1992.
too bad it’s electric. but I can still get go ” HUALING ” in white paint in wooden side boards for some dump truck runs.
git’er done.
Perhaps employ a bevy of beavers. You can listen to Primus (Winonas big brown beaver) while unleashing their fury upon some trees and making you some cash in the process. ‘Murica!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYDfwUJzYQg
Jerry was a race car driver.
A part of me thinks we’re beyond the point of no-return, and we will never see a meaningful decline in asset prices, ever again. Sure, we may get a few -5% blips along the way, but that’s about it. I think a doubling of asset prices every 5 years is more likely, as they inflate it away. That’s the crow I am going to eat.
Yes, I have been saying that since 2010. Inflating the debt away has always been the fallback position of the PTB.
its gonna be inflation or deflation. which one do u think they will choose?
Unless they come up with an entirely new game, they will have to find a fresh army (really HUGE) of borrowers to make this inflation happen.
In all hyper-inflationary scenarios that happened in recent history, “borrowing” had nothing to do with it.
What hyperinflationary scenario?
Borrowing is what gave us inflation in our own recent history. Are you suggesting that an entirely new game is in the works?
What is this new game?
Borrowing is what gave us inflation in our own recent history. Are you suggesting that an entirely new game is in the works?
Don’t limit yourself to the U.S. recent history. Look around, study other countries.
It’s an old game. Devaluation. Usually combined with print baby, print.
How do you suppose the reserve currency gets “devalued” other than naturally, by printing a gazillion Dollars and spending them? By the way, we don’t do it that way in the USA. We lend them into existence. Fed Reserve and all that. You have to have a new game or this hypothetical hyperinflation doesn’t have a start.
Wow. That was fast.
The censorship of relevant factual information in order to preserve the official narrative is how freedom dies.
Welcome to the road to hell, tovarish.
There’s been no significant inflation in America in over 30 years.
Nobody ever expects to actually repay a 30-year mortgage debt. We sit on the mountain of debt that is impossible to ever repay. I think they will start doing 50-year, 100-year, hell even 500-year mortgages because everyone knows, nobody’s going to pay it back anyway, so who cares about the term length.
Yeah, that would be a nice twist. Put your descendants in slavery too.
Well, maybe when people croak, the bank temporarily takes ownership of the 500-year mortgage, sells the house to a new buyer who assumes the existing mortgage, doesn’t take out a new one. So it’s like, mortgages become tied to the property, not the person. (I have no idea I’m just talking bull****.)
It would certainly be the next frontier. You can’t “buy” this house. You have to be a debt serf to live here. Freedom not welcome. Have a nice day.
the more credit the create the more money they make.
“Nobody ever expects to actually repay a 30-year mortgage debt.”
I don’t know about that. My parents are debt free. My wife’s parents are debt free. My sister-in-law is debt free. All own their own homes.
I’m talking with my wife about our plan to be debt free well in advance of our mortgage amortization table.
You just need to purchase within your means and be disciplined in your financial planning.
Yes, I was generalizing a bit, my bad.
That’s great — you have a family of non-debtors, who own their homes free and clear! That is good to hear.
“My parents are debt free. My wife’s parents are debt free. My sister-in-law is debt free. All own their own homes.”
+1 Debt free too.
me too! hehe.
I’ve been debt-free most of my entire life. In 2012, it looked like house prices stopped going down, so I decided to take out a big fat ugly mortgage, and rode the echo bubble for the next 4 years. I did not enjoy having that debt over my head. It was always bugging me. But it was a good ride. Cashed out and renting again.
Also, I was not expecting there to be an echo bubble. At the time, I thought the previous damage was pretty much done, and there was a new “baseline” for property prices, even though they were still kinda pricey. I wasn’t expecting much of price increases — maybe some, a little bit each year.
Turns out I was wrong, and a new bubble formed. That’s mainly why I got out.
Also almost debt-free. Have about $13K left to pay on the house, and at this end of the loan there is zero incentive to pay it off early. From $128K to zero in just under 20 years, with one re-fi from 30 to 15 years eight years into the 30.
But let’s be real. There is no such thing as property ownership any longer in this country. You are merely renting from the government, with a list of a thousand things long that you can’t do with/on your ‘own’ property. And they’ll take it away from you in 2-3 years if you stop paying your rent (taxes).
Our founders would not be able to mentally comprehend what our country has become. It’s a good thing that they are dead!
^^^^^ this
When this view becomes the predominant view, that’s when we will get overbuilding, and it will all come tumbling down.
Inflation is a tax on the poor and middle class. Prepare for more taxes.
Now you understand why demand is collapsing for all items.
“On all items”? That’s a very myopic viewpoint.
Irrelevant
He never lets the facts get in his way. I disagree with you often and I use to disagree with Oxide but both of you argue with facts not fiction.
You used the word “myopic”. I’m not sure that word means what you think it means.
Got any notable exceptions?
@Blue Skye -
He doesn’t see the forest for the trees, and neither do you. Aka, myopic.
Surely, from your lofty view, you can see a tree or two that you might point out to us ground dwellers.
Got any notable exceptions?
Got any notable exceptions?
Exceptions to what, a fiction in MF’s head?
Prove his statement of “collapsing demand for all items”.
Don’t forget to explain how “collapsing demand” jibes with a surge in factory orders and hiring.
Exceptions to what?
Attention span?
You may think you have an overview, but we’re not surging down here where stuff is made. January was a pretty good month here, but it is a variation within a band that has been trending down for a year.
Got any exceptions?
You made a false statement, try to prove it.
Nonsense.
I think I must have asked a question that cannot be answered.
If you were aware of a hot growth area, you could have pointed it out instead of the personality issue crap.
Blue Skye out.
“Blue Skye out.”
I’m tellin’ ya. Life hands out enough abuse, why experience on the net as well?
ABQ Dan -
Intel to invest $7 billion in factory in Arizona, employ 3,000.
Are they closing the huge ABQ plant? ABQ real estate seems to be in a free fall. Why didn’t they expand ABQ?
hasnt demand for chips fallen off a cliff?
Stihl a good idea.
Fetch ball boy!
If you can’t spot the sucker at the table… it’s you!
AZ = are you using a Realturd? or FSBO? Better hurry!
“If you can’t spot the sucker at the table… it’s you!
Yep, so says this article. You’ve seen the pump, here comes the dump:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-08/hedge-funds-sell-near-record-amount-stock-follow-insiders-bank-execs
“Enron is a great buy.” —Ken Lay
Stihl a good idea.
Texas has more than hot weather and low housing prices.
http://picpaste.com/leatherface.jpg
US Housing Demand Plummets To 1996 Level: Housing Inventory At Record High
http://preview.tinyurl.com/zq3p2lo
Not in the greater Seattle area. The exact opposite is true here, even today.
http://www.denverpost.com/2017/02/07/denver-home-prices-too-high/
The articles says that there aren’t enough houses in Denver that the average Joe can afford.
Many of the comments reflect what I hear at the lunch table: No bubble here. If they’re selling it’s because people can afford them, blah, blah, blah.
But there are plenty of houses……
I have some investors lined up.
Poet…. You don’t have two dimes to rub together.
-> “You don’t have two dimes to rub together.”
See, there we go. It used to be two nickles to rub together. Now it’s two dimes. Next year it will be two quarters! What is the world coming to?!
See also the Denver Business Journal article I posted above.
Durango, Gunnison, Salida sound like nice places to move to after making some bank and leaving this overpriced dump…
just back from an afternoon drive to the American River Sunrise area checking out the rising river. side rails down/river rising/flowing fast.
talked w/Parks Supervisor for a bit as work crews were grinding off the fence spot-welds (sparks flying) again yesterday afternoon.
i bet they’re getting tired of cutting spot welds, lowering, then raising & rewelding those heavy steel foot-bridge guide rails after each flood.
many homeless on bikes in the parking lots looking miserable. Next time i go have to remember to pick’em up a bag of sandwiches.
We elevate our foot bridges. Just a suggestion.
The footbridge is normally a good distance above the river.
these are abnormal rains.
Investors Have Overpaid Severely And Foolishly”
Aren’t these ‘genius’” aware that money on a real estate is always made on the buy??
buy low , sell high?
bulls make money
bears make money
hogs get slaughtered
Seems like we have a lot of hogs out there now.
bulls make steers
steers make steaks
hogs make bacon
“Seems like we have a lot of hogs out there now.”
Cuold be I frequently see bacon on sale.
Truth!
Brookline, MA Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/brookline-ma/market-trends/
Here we go again….
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/07/eu-faces-crisis-imf-warns-greek-debts-explosive-path/
the only way to pay off all this debt is to print it away.
That is exactly what is going to happen.
Weimar 2.0, here we come.
that’s why some people say were gonna see massive inflation before deflation.
“When Money Dies” by Adam Fergusson. The story of how central bank money-printing led to hyperinflation and the nightmare that followed. A preview of coming attractions once the Fed debases the dollar into worthlessness with its deranged money-printing.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970203513204576047730344593352
A preview of coming attractions
Exactly. The only question is, will we have a war hoisted on us before or after?
But rents are only going to go up, eh disaster predictor? And I’m a doom and gloomer for saying shack prices are too high. World war! Russians! But we’ll only pay more. Right.
Human extinction within ten years.
Party on!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqIt93dDG1M
(run time = ten minutes)
Today the HBB causes more enragement driven derangement than at any time in it’s history.
“An empty head leads to an empty pocket.”
No, posters like you do that claim facts not in evidence and post links that directly contradict what you state.
Globalism: A marketplace of bad ideas. Real stinkers.
Downtown Los Angeles, CA Rental Rates Crater 7% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/downtown-los-angeles-ca/home-values/
Bahahahahahahahahahahaha …
Dear Climate Alarmists - We Will Never Forget nor Forgive
http://www.xyz.net.au/dear-climate-alarmists-will-never-forget-forgive/
“There is a significant and growing shortage of lower-priced homes and a glut of high-end ones.”
I have some relatives who own a number of these “high-end” homes. Complete crap. Nice faucets, floors, and granite everywhere. Still, crappy construction underneath it all. Just more McMansions. No style. Bigger stucco. BS.
Roidy
P.S. I like these relatives. They are all nice people. Really do.
Coventry, CT Housing Prices Crater 20% YOY
http://www.zillow.com/coventry-ct/home-values/
nuke spill? hilarious zillow says up 1.3% next year
-so buy now
A video:
‘Australia’s Apartment Boom Might Actually Be a Glut’
‘Cranes have become a prominent feature on the skylines of Australia’s biggest cities, in the frenzy of a high-rise housing boom. While the wider market remains robust, some signs suggest nobody’s actually living in many new apartments.’
Sounds like Miami.
Miami, FL Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/miami-fl/home-values/
According to Bill Kristol the Coupon Clipping White Working class is too lazy to buy a house anyway.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWJSKhEwjy8
Kristol’s immigrants won’t fight in the middle-east for David’s land.