There’s A Lot Of Product Coming In
A report from Bloomberg on New York. “Manhattan landlords, who for years pushed apartment rents to ever-higher levels, now keep setting records of a different kind: the giveaways they offer to tenants. The portion of new leases signed with concessions reached a new high for the fourth straight month. ‘They know they have to,’ Hal Gavzie, executive director of leasing for Douglas Elliman, said in an interview. ‘As landlords and owners, they would much rather not do it. But you have tenants and renters who are resisting the price increases, and this is now where things are.’”
“These days, it’s not uncommon for apartment seekers to tell Citi Habitats broker Adam Franklin that they don’t want to pay the fee for his services. Usually, that would be a deal-breaker for him, but now there are plenty of new buildings he can show clients where the landlords will cover his costs, and then some, Franklin said. That’s what happened in a deal he arranged last month for a Long Island couple, who signed a lease for a two-bedroom apartment at aalto57, a newly constructed tower at 1065 Second Ave. The landlord offered a month of free rent on a 13-month lease, but the couple, having toured many new buildings across Manhattan, asked for more, Franklin said.”
“The landlord threw in an extra free month — on condition they sign a two-year lease for the $8,150-a-month unit. And when they declined that longer commitment, the landlord came back with two months of free rent on a 14-month lease, effectively lowering their cost to $6,985. ‘The numbers have to make sense to them because many other buildings are offering incentives,’ Franklin said.”
From The Real Deal. “New York City residential landlords are continuing to rely on renters’ incentives to keep vacancies at bay, a trend that is expected to become more widespread throughout 2017. According to the monthly rental report from Douglas Elliman, in Manhattan, 31 percent of all new leases included some form of concession last month, nearly double what it was a year ago. In Brooklyn, 18 percent of leases had concessions, compared to just 5 percent last year.”
“‘Landlords are trying to strike a balance and that means fine tuning rents to fit market conditions,’ said Jonathan Miller, CEO of appraisal firm Miller Samuel and author of the report. He predicts landlords will use concessions even more aggressively in 2017. ‘I don’t think we’re at the end of this — nothing is changing and there’s a lot of product coming in,’ he said. ‘The rental market is going to get weaker before it gets stronger.’”
“The market in northwest Queens continues to be ‘choppy,’ according to Miller. The median rent fell 2.4 percent year-over-year to $2,700. Out of all the leases signed last month, 38 percent included concessions. The concessions are driven by the uptick in new development rentals, which had a market share of 34 percent last month, more than double what it was this time last year. ‘In the last six months in 2016, you started to see a run-up in Brooklyn in the use of concessions,’ said Miller. ‘Even though the concessions are still less than in Manhattan, the amount of concessions tripled over the year, whereas in Manhattan it doubled.’”
The New York Post. “Sky-high Big Apple rents have finally hit the ceiling. Some of the city’s hottest neighborhoods have seen the steepest rent drops — thanks in part to overdevelopment and New Yorkers’ willingness to accept longer work commutes in exchange for more living space at less cost, according to a new study from RentHop. Falling rents were especially striking in Chelsea, where world-renowned ’starchitects’ designed luxury condominiums that have risen around the High Line.”
“Comparing median prices from the fourth quarter of 2016 with the comparable 2015 period, the monthly rent for a one-bedroom, nondoorman apartment in Chelsea plunged an eye-popping 15.5 percent, to $3,125. ‘People are still leaving Manhattan in search of cheaper rents and larger apartments,’ said RentHop data scientist Shane Leese. ‘In Chelsea, the market is saturated. People are tired of paying $3,000 and $4,000 a month in rent and they’re moving to places like Bushwick, with longer commutes.’”
“Rents in Long Island City plunged 7.22 percent to $2,250 for a one-bedroom in a non-doorman building while luxury doorman units dropped 1.73 percent to $2,862. Williamsburg’s hot status may also be fading, the study notes, as nondoorman rents dropped 3.41 percent to $2,800 and were down 0.62 percent in luxury doorman buildings. Battery Park City also saw huge drops: 8.5 percent, to $3,570, in doorman buildings and 15.2 percent, to $3,300, for nondoorman units. In chi-chi Soho, one-bedrooms in doorman buildings fell 14 percent, to $7,095 while nondoorman units fell 10.5 percent, to $2,950.”
From Mansion Global. “In Brooklyn, where many Manhattanites used to flee to avoid soaring rents, landlord concessions also hit a new record of 18.1%, more than triple the 5.4% from a year ago. Like Manhattan, the issue is a flood of high-end rentals coming onto the market, with listing inventory increasing 24.9% to 2,459 in the year to January, while the average number of days a property spent on the market was almost a third higher at 68. ‘What we’re seeing is a lot more inventory growth in Brooklyn throughout the year and that’s accelerating the use of concessions to protect base rents,’ said Jonathan Miller, chief executive of Miller Samuel and author of the report.”
“Median rents in Brooklyn were 1.9% lower year-over-year at $2,750, the sixth drop in seven months. Including the impact of concessions, they were down 2.8% at $2,702. A separate report Thursday by brokerage Citi Habitats found that 37% of Manhattan rental transactions it was involved in offered a free month’s rent and/or payment of the broker fee to entice new tenants in January–up slightly from 35% in December.”
The Commercial Observer. “President Donald Trump’s travel ban issued late last month might have come at the worst possible moment for an industry that is already struggling to keep its head above water: New York’s hotel business. Long before Trump’s Jan. 27 executive order, the industry had been plagued by problems including an oversupply of rooms, the growing presence of Airbnb, looming foreclosures and a transformation of existing hotels into something entirely different—like, say, homeless shelters.”
“The travel ban is only part of the problem. Perhaps most critical is the 15,333 rooms under construction in New York City, according to data from STR, a source of hotel data benchmarking. That will be tacked onto the existing 115,369 hotel rooms in the city. ‘People have to be very, very aware of this,’ said Jan D. Freitag, the senior vice president of lodging insights at STR. ‘It will impact the performance of the market going forward. If room demand stays the same and we’re adding 15,000 rooms over the next two years or so, occupancy will decline.’”
“If all of the new rooms were to open tomorrow, that would represent a 13 percent increase in room supply. Divide that by two years, that’s a 6.5 percent increase in the number of rooms per year. The U.S. annual average, by comparison, is 2 percent, Freitag said. Robert Chan, a partner in the Flatiron Hotel at 9 West 26th Street at the corner of Broadway, noted that there are a lot of hotels being offered for sale as a result of the market cooling.”
“Those include St. James Hotel at 109 West 45th Street, W New York Union Square at 201 Park Avenue South and Gowanus Inn & Yard at 645 Union Street in Brooklyn. In addition there are those that are in financial peril. Gallivant Times Square at 234 West 48th Street, formerly known as TRYP New York Times Square by Wyndham, is in foreclosure, as are Mansfield Hotel at 12 West 44th Street and Shoreham Hotel at 33 West 55th Street.”
‘Manhattan landlords, who for years pushed apartment rents to ever-higher levels, now keep setting records of a different kind: the giveaways they offer to tenants. The portion of new leases signed with concessions reached a new high for the fourth straight month’
‘The market in northwest Queens continues to be ‘choppy,’ according to Miller. The median rent fell 2.4 percent year-over-year to $2,700. Out of all the leases signed last month, 38 percent included concessions. The concessions are driven by the uptick in new development rentals, which had a market share of 34 percent last month, more than double what it was this time last year’
Any one see a pattern here?
Any one see a pattern here ??
Same pattern we have seen many times over the last 45 years…Obscene profits bring ruienous competition….
I don’t think this has ever happened before. Not in every corner of the US and much of the world at the same time. This is some of the most expensive real estate on the planet. We can assume these are some of the most sophisticated developers anywhere. Yet we read yesterday of Chinese investors foolishly over paying in NYC. Where were the people who carefully plot out future demand for hotels and apartments? With billions at stake, a lot of it borrowed, surely these tall buildings are created with some scrutiny?
I use the phrase Yellen bucks looking for a place to die. I mean a very specific mania related activity. Some $30 trillion have been created in the last 10 years. But that’s not wealth, it’s claims on wealth. Should be inflationary or else it goes away, back to the nothing it came from. In a globalized world and with the new monies held in concentrated hands, it goes in search of returns. More food resources are created, more housing. Fantasies like luxury apartments/condos spring up when true demand isn’t there. Prices go up in the short term for land, but it’s only temporary. Reality reasserts itself and it comes crashing down. This new money through human activity has been looking to go poof and it has, leaving overcapacity in its stead. Overcapacity is deflationary. We see it in cars, buildings, food. Overcapacity lowers returns for all market participants into the future. Except for the vultures.
Perfectly-stated, Ben.
And, though multitudes of millennial techies don’t want to admit this, Yellenbucks looking for a home is THE driving factor behind Dot Com 2.0.
Look at Uber, or Twitter, or Snapchat. These are the 21st-century versions of Yahoo and Pets.com. Cash out while you can!
Mark Twain perfectly summarized this mania, which happened in the late 1800s with gold and silver mining stocks. I read his writings on this during the 1990s Dot Com 1.0 days (a century after his gold stock experience) and was astounded at the parallels.
Human nature never changes.
I’ve asked before if it wasn’t a bit too coincidental that money losing, so-called tech companies emerged after the greatest period of fiat money creation in the history of the world.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/grld
great stuff. the reason I visit this blog.
‘Zenefits will lay off 45% of its employees in an effort to slash costs, according to an internal memo…a stark acknowledgment by the embattled human resources startup that its onetime expectations for growth were vastly inflated.’
‘In an internal memo seen by CNBC, CEO Jay Fulcher wrote Zenefits was “saying goodbye” to 430 employees, including 250 in Zenefits’ San Francisco headquarters and 150 in its office in Tempe, Arizona, leaving the company with about 500 employees, according to the memo and a person briefed on the matter. That’s about a third of the size it was a year ago.’
‘Even in a town built on hype, Zenefits turned heads for its rapid ascent to elite “unicorn” status, gaining a $4.5 billion valuation just after its second birthday. Conrad, its leader at the time, said the company was on track to reach $100 million in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2015, and he aggressively staffed up in anticipation of that milestone.’
‘But the reality fell short. By the middle of 2016, annual recurring revenue was around $60 million, and Zenefits had slashed its valuation to $2 billion. More detailed financial information obtained by BuzzFeed News showed that Zenefits lost $100 million in the six months from February through July 2016, on revenue of $35.3 million. During that period, the company burned through $97.1 million of cash, a rate that put it on track to run out of cash by the end of 2017.’
‘in a town built on hype’
Thornberg said recently, “California is on fire!”
Content like this is why I read this blog and the comments every single day. Golden insights.
But the reality fell short. By the middle of 2016, annual recurring revenue was around $60 million, and Zenefits had slashed its valuation to $2 billion
Its sales were a paltry $60 million, and yet it was valuated at $2B.
Their product? Human resources software. And it’s not like they don’t have competition.
Apparently they raised $500 million in investment to achieve that $60 million in sales. Turns out it was only $43 million according to Wiki. A company “to bet your career on”! Go Unicorns.
Heckova job, Yellen.
“I’ve asked before if it wasn’t a bit too coincidental that money losing, so-called tech companies emerged after the greatest period of fiat money creation in the history of the world.”
Negative Nancys like this won’t stop me from making a huge fortune from my genius idea MakeMyBed.com! Uber has shown the way. There is a horde of underemployed strangers who will be beating down your doors to make all of your beds for a small fee and I will be MEELIONAIRE.
Human resources software. And it’s not like they don’t have competition.
Probably the most discriminatory product ever devised algorithms that dont allow anything or anyone to explain any life changing experiences.
then the video ones to see if you are UGLY or the wrong color or have bad teeth, and you have to answer specific questions, all designed to get a certain profile that looks good on paper.
Then they are looked at by interns, airheads and very rarely a professional.
Consider me a vulture circling
Spreadsheets are no substitute for common sense.
The pattern I see is that luxury rents are still luxury rents, even after hard negotiation. An apartment on Second Avenue rents for $7000/month, but another apartment in Long Island City, about a mile away, rents for $2250. So the Manhattan lowered rents are good for the wealthier people, but still not low enough fall to the range of the middle class.
I see a lot a railroad yards in Long Island City. Is that location really so bad compared to Second Avenue across the East river? Is the commute so much worse? Maybe nychick knows.
‘So the Manhattan lowered rents are good for the wealthier people’
If this was a sociology class that might be a focus. Being a blog about the housing bubble, I prefer to note that a great economic distortion has occurred and it’s being revealed. Just two years ago people were throwing down huge amounts of money to “park” in a yet to be built Manhattan box of air. The term was used over and over. Safe deposit box in the sky, they said. It’s gone! And some of these are condos, with mortgages. The apartments are even more crazy. Were those single digit rental profits worth the risk? Were they planning to sell the apartments? Whatever the plan was, it looks foolish now.
And it’s gone!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJ5NWSqKzoo
Long Island City is horrible to the point of unfit to live, IMHO, and overpriced. There are better areas in Queens, for significantly less money.
Second Avenue is supposed to be a cheap(er) part of Manhattan. I think landlords were getting way ahead of themselves due to 2nd Ave subway finally getting opened. It’s still a subpar neighborhood, I can’t believe that rent.
Oh, wait, I was thinking UES. The couple from the article rented in Sutton Place, near the bridge - just dreary, but prestigious. Too boring and far away, but it’s perfect for those working at the United Nations or looking for a secluded isolated suburban feel (but not on the corner of 56th, that’s where the bridge traffic goes, LOL). Perhaps they wanted this location for sending their kid to International School.
As for commute, anything over a bridge is harder if it’s not near a subway stop. It’s no fun to sit on a bridge in traffic, and crossing the tunnel costs $8 cash or $5.54 in taxi, one way.
Parts of LIC condos were advertised as “just one short subway stop from the city” on a number 7 train, but that train is constantly “temporarily not running due to… blah-blah whatever daily problem”.
we lived on 61st and 1 ave years ago ….so i know sutton place well great view in there
No its just mostly older houses 2 -3 family ones but boy is there a luxury boom happening now, massive amounts of apartments lots of info here
https://twitter.com/LICCourtSquare
“Sky-high Big Apple rents have finally hit the ceiling. Some of the city’s hottest neighborhoods have seen the steepest rent drops…”
Well now. Isn’t that special? The most over-priced is the first to go. Think Florida and Arizona in the housing bubble. Now, I clearly remember that condos were the first to decline AND IT WAS SALES THAT TANKED! Price took a while. So, the most overpriced apts in the US are in NY. The first metric to have problems is the rental vacancy rate.
And so it goes.
Roidy
pattern remembered from 2008. and a black cat just walked by.
twice
Downtown Boston, MA Rental Rates Crater 5% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/downtown-boston-ma/home-values/
but it’s only hi end,NY,special,
etc…………
name a market w increasing rents in jan 2017
“The average apartment rent over the prior 6 months in Washington [DC] has decreased by $101 (-4.2%)”
4% in six months…Oops.
https://www.rentjungle.com/average-rent-in-washington-rent-trends/
and that’s pre RIF
the human tornado will chop heads
Look at rents in small, resort, high quality of life towns, with no new construction. I dont see rents dropping on anything under $2500 mo.
Sacramento rents are not declining. The rent increases are tapering, but they will not turn down for another year or so.
I am wondering how the AirBnB owners are going to hold up with all the extra supply and the downturn in hotel occupancy?
I just booked a Marriott in Miami Beach, because all the HomeAway owners want $150 cleaning fee, $200 security deposits and HomeAway’s $50 processing fee. The extra $400, plus a higher daily rate is just not worth it.
If I am going to stay in a private condo, I want a better rate than a hotel. The hassle of finding the place, dealing with a private party and the risk of getting burned is not worth it. With Marriott, I know my vacation will be trouble free and easy.
Why so many children live in poverty in Fairfield County
Sophia Tewa Updated 9:45 am, Wednesday, February 8, 2017
IMAGE 4 OF 10
From 2005 to 2014, the number of people paying more than half of their total income towards rent increased by 51 percent in Fairfield County.
Source: The Fairfield Community Wellbeing Index 2016
http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Why-so-many-children-live-in-poverty-in-Fairfield-10914488.php
No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes happening here:
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/09/upshot/a-secret-of-many-urban-20-somethings-their-parents-help-with-the-rent.html
This is much of why so many baby boomers are not retiring. Boomers could afford to support themselves, but they can’t support themselves *and* subsidize their Millenial kids to the tune of $6-700/month. If the money isn’t going for the rent, it’s for college loans or for spoiling the toddler grandkids. Or, the boomers cash-out refi’d the house to send Junior to college and now they have to work to pay the mortgage. There’s a lot of this going on.
We keep saying this, but at some point, those Boomers are simply *not* going to be able to work anymore, and it’s anyone’s guess whether the Millenials will be able to support themselves.
Denver is gonna have about 20,000 vacant “luxury” apartments by the end of 2018.
Luckily USA today and People mag give it a #1 rating!
Hope they add more lanes to the freeways.
Hope they add more lanes to the freeways.
I think this is a common problem in most metro areas, especially the more sprawly ones. While traffic congestion in Denver isn’t great, I have seen far worse in other places.
I guess that is why people say it is best to rent as close to your work as you can. 2 hrs in the car each day is a waste of life
plus in an emergency who will they call first…YOU or someone who lives 2 hours away, the extra OT will easily compensate for the increased rent.
Doesn’t work for employees on a salary.
We keep saying this, but at some point, those Boomers are simply *not* going to be able to work anymore, and it’s anyone’s guess whether the Millenials will be able to support themselves.
Seems like that kind of answers itself. As soon as labor is in higher demand due to the old not being able to go to work any more, perhaps their salaries will then be able to cover their own expenses. See the H1B discussion…
But will those millenials who majored in liberal arts and victims studies get those jobs, or will they go to H1B’s or be sent offshore?
Yep, not nearly as many tech degree holders out there, but a butt load of folks qualified to be baristas and hold protest signs. Less math degrees being awarded at universities than there were in the 1970s!
Mandate I’m seeing is to design as much as you can so that a high school educated student can operate.
America is consuming the last of its seed corn from the post WW2 era. Bubbles blown to keep the illusion alive, but those outside of the bubbles are already feeling the hard reset.
Millenial techies are doing just fine.
As for Math degrees, why bust your hump with one of those, when a nice and easy Computer Science degree will get the job done. Heck, a lot of CS programs don’t even teach Computer Science, they just train people to be coders.
“Millenial techies”
Raindrops in the desert my friend. Raindrops in the desert.
Less math degrees being awarded at universities than there were in the 1970s!
I wonder how many degrees are needed. Most of those people probably ended up teaching high school.
Yes, they are doing fine until they reach middle age, have a spouse, mortgage, and two kids, and are then laid-off and replaced by 25-year-younger versions of themselves.
And see above - the tech sector will be decimated when the VC Yellenbucks run out. Tens of thousands in layoffs coming over the next few years. How many of these companies are actually profitable?
Less math degrees
Look on the bright side. Maybe the kids today have better understanding of English grammar.
My guess is that every 10 baby boomers will be replaced by 6 GenXers at most. Many of the knowledge jobs and management jobs are being automated/tech’ed away. You don’t need as much staff if you can google things yourself. You don’t need number crunchers if you have the latest timesheet software, and so on.
(For a fun experiment, go watch an episode of Mad Men and count how many of the characters would be out of a job today. My guess is 2/3.)
So, the job slots may not be there for Millenials to fill. And that doesn’t include all the workers that are being imported.
For a fun experiment, go watch an episode of Mad Men and count how many of the characters would be out of a job today. My guess is 2/3
For starters most clerical jobs have been automated away.
On the other hand, it’s easy to compile a list of jobs that employ millions that didn’t exist in the Mad Men days.
Wrong. The clerical jobs have most definitely not been automated. Us professional folks are now forced to do them instead. I have to do my own travel arrangements, type my own reports, fill out my own forms, etc - all things that secretaries would have done in the past.
Agreed with Redmond here. I do a ton of clerical work at a higher hourly rate that a clerk could do much more efficiently for a lower rate. Corporations have bought the idea that technology will save money when, quite often, it costs much more than paying for a competent person.
This is the Denver foreclosure map back in 2007.
http://picpaste.com/denver_map.jpg
Everyone I work with is convinced that won’t happen again, even though Denver prices today handily top those from the previous bubble.
Oh, and they refuse to believe there’s a bubble.
I overheard one of the guys who works for the GC (based out of Texas) that metro Denver has the highest projected rent growth in the country.
This is only their 2nd or 3rd project in Colorado.
“Oh, and they refuse to believe there’s a bubble.”
Is CO a mortgage “walk-away” state?
I believe that it is not. From what I have read they will come after you for a deficiency.
“From what I have read they will come after you for a deficiency.”
Wow… yet the bidding war continues. $60k millionaires!
Colorado is recourse. The person sued for deficiency may cite “non-fair market value” bid by lender and gum up the works.
After watching the housing bubble for over a decade I still take the minority opinion that housing prices will eventually fall down to what you’d pay for a used car. I can’t see how the mortgage industry will sustain itself past the 2020s, realistically. To make a long story short, it’s a matter of volume and markup. If there is no way to get a mortgage, the average real estate property might as well be worth pocket change. Supply and demand mean nothing if there is no way to pay the bill.
When you can buy a Manhattan single family property for the same price you pay for a cheap house in rural North Dakota, I’d say you might have hit bottom.
I used to think so. Now I think it requires total collapse of the current system first. Anything less means all resources will continue to be directed into propping up prices to keep the system functioning.
We’re already seeing the collapse. Housing demand in a tailspin.
Even if you use all of the resources on planet Earth housing prices will eventually fall down to those levels. Exactly when, I don’t know, but that is the only logical conclusion I can come to. Furthermore, I’m doubtful that a whole lot of resources outside of fraud and deception can be used to prop them up much more than a decade or so.
“….housing prices will eventually fall down to what you’d pay for a used car.”
That is an absurd statement. Just using common sense about construction costs, utility, and depreciation of the two types, cars vs. houses will disprove your notion. Cars fall apart quickly and depreciate rapidly. Houses are built to last 50-years and generally appreciate, in part because reproduction costs goes up for similar properties. The rising cost of auto production has little effect on old used cars!
“When you can buy a Manhattan single family property for the same price you pay for a cheap house in rural North Dakota, I’d say you might have hit bottom.”
We already covered that in April 2016. No one wants a house in the rural Dakotas. There is no comparison. See below……..
Comment by Jingle Male
2016-03-30 08:28:39
I agree, my grandmother’s 1,200 SF home sold for $2,600 in 1993 in a small South Dakota forming community of 300 people. It was 600 people when they built the house in the 1940’s. Many houses in the town have been sitting vacant years after being abandoned.
Mead, WA Housing Prices Crater 12% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/mead-wa/home-values/
You still pedaling your misinformation? Per your link……
The median home value in Mead is $259,700. Mead home values have gone up 9.7% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 4.2% within the next year. The median list price per square foot in Mead is $154, which is higher than the Spokane Metro average of $134. The median price of homes currently listed in Mead is $241,500.
Prices are falling my friend.
Our good friend Karen made this just for you.
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
I appreciate the deep dive into NYC. If you gonna censor content, that the least you could do.
$7000 for a two-bedroom on Second Avenue is still way too much. It’s not Central Park West, LOL.
I think prices are still too high. They are returning to “very, very high asking rents” after a period of “no way, this is out of the question”.
What I found is that newcomers tend to overpay, by hundreds and thousands of dollars per month, and end up in worse areas for more money. Smaller landlords offer more reasonable deals. Better areas actually have better deals, if one knows where to look.
Agree on travel ban and proposed politics in general - any significant restriction on immigration will not help the housing market, even more so in immigrant-rich and immigrant-dependent areas.
Immigration and housing are two separate issues my friend. Two separate issues.
Because illegal and legal immigrants don’t need a place to live?
That they don’t add to the demand for housing driving up prices?
That they don’t get government free money to compete in the housing market against those who are native born and work for their rent money?
Real but separate.
Since Drudge has a link to how many illegals live in the top 20 cities we do not have to guess at the number. At first glance there does appear to be correlation between high illegal numbers and cities in a housing bubble. Of course, correlation does not prove causation but it is not hard to believe that the large numbers of illegals are at least driving up both the cost of renting and the price of the rental units:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/02/09/us-metro-areas-unauthorized-immigrants/
1.15 million in the tristate area around NYC. Put enough people in the same apartment and even an outrageous rent can be paid.
And rents can even fall.
Bensonhurst Brooklyn Housing Prices Crater 11% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/bensonhurst-new-york-ny/home-values/
On the other hand, illegal aliens working in the building trades can drive down the cost of new construction.
There could be a causation, just in the other direction. A housing bubble — or an oil bubble — tends to attract more illegal immigration.
I think the causation flows in both directions. The inflow of illegals and legal immigrants can cause a housing shortage which then causes a construction boom which creates jobs for even more illegals in the construction trades. Eventually a bubble forms and then pops and the rest of taxpayers have to support people who do not have the skills to support themselves when there are no construction jobs. I think that in many cases it is the government itself that is intentionally priming the pump since these bubbles are needed to keep Ponzi schemes like Social Security going.
Because *so* many refugees from sharia-majority countries can afford to stay in hotel rooms in NYC. They’re just wedging “blame Trump” into everything.
Hey Donk.
Because *so* many refugees from sharia-majority countries can afford to stay in hotel rooms in NYC. They’re just wedging “blame Trump” into everything.
Any kind of aggravation leads to a fall in visitors. For example, I no longer visit Muslim countries, because it just doesn’t feel safe.
Promising to restrict work visas and to arrest illegals by the millions, detaining green card holders and chaos in the airports, etc., paints a less welcoming picture of a country in turmoil, so that even a tourist or a business visitor might think twice about visiting.
On the other hand, it might have an opposite effect and lead to an uptick in visitors. If people believe that the doors to America are about to be shut on immigrants, they might want to accelerate their move here. Plenty of well-heeled foreigners are happy to keep making money where they currently live, but are also looking for a “safer home” long term.
Just like investors tend to flock to USD in times of economic turmoil, people flock to USA in times of political instability. For example, post Brexit Brits are moving to NYC in droves.
Why is the USA expected to hand out work visas like Halloween candy, when in other countries it can be next to impossible to get one?
It’s actually much harder to get a work visa to the USA compared to Canada, Australia or Europe.
We hand out 1 million new green cards every freaking year.
Most of green cards are family reunification.
NY chk…..the bottleneck is at the immigration office…eliminate all interpreters and only those who can read, write and speak fluent English to the judges and clerks will be allowed to stay.
90%+ on welfare
Achbar
Do Ben a favor and self-censor. I’ve made a concerted effort reduce/eliminate my political commentary and refocus on housing.
Nothing to do with politics, actually. From the horse’s mouth on economic policy, LOL.
Hey NYchk - why do you live there?
Better paying jobs.
Ocean.
jobs, sure…. but if you spend it all on rent and heat and you are not happy…. is there another good reason? Lots of cities have high paying jobs.
Never heard of anyone living in NY for the beaches and I have family with a POW summer-house. How often do you go?
Nicaragua has even nicer beaches.
Never heard of anyone living in NY for the beaches
There have to be some people. Plus, the Pacific is supposed to be a lot colder than the Atlantic. Brrr
Plus, the Pacific is supposed to be a lot colder than the Atlantic
huh?
Easy to google water temps.
The pacific is nice south of Ventura, and the sun is what is important as someone invented wetsuits for winter.
WHat else?
I was offered a job in LA but turned it down, you’ll laugh, because of the beach. Water is too cold in LA. Beach is for swimming, not for sitting in the sun.
(And also because of LA’s drive culture vs. NYC’s walk culture. I love driving, but I enjoy living in a place where I can walk to everything, and limit driving to the weekends).
I swim all the time in the summer. Also, I like going to Caribbean and Europe, and it’s much closer from here.
if you spend it all on rent and heat and you are not happy….
Where are you getting that?
Just because I’m unhappy with He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, doesn’t mean I’m not enjoying my life. NYC has its drawbacks, but it’s not so bad. Lots of very interesting people and places, for sure.
NYC seems like it could go Walking Dead real fast.
LA vs NYC to me is no contest. Neither. Too many rats in a small cage.
Where are you located?
Too many rats in a small cage.
LOL, I must admit it took me awhile to get used to NYC. It’s a very special place, and you gotta take the good with the bad.
Housing gonna take a dousing!
“Never spend your money before you have it.” — Thomas Jefferson
Is this a perverse stage of grief in the debt addict’s Kübler-Ross cycle?
From what I remember, Jefferson had plenty of debt throughout his life. He loved the good life - lots of books, a fancy house, and so forth.
He should have had his debts in continental dollars and not gold.
Boulder County, CO Rental Rates Crater 9% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/boulder-county-co/home-values
Will farmland be the first bubble to collapse hard? Farmers can’t conceal the extent of the drop by offering incentives a la apartment owners.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-09/midwest-farm-bubble-continues-collapse-farm-incomes-expected-crash-2017
Oh dear. Chinese banks begin raising mortgage rates.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-09/chinese-banks-begin-raise-mortgage-rates
Maybe because they can:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2017/01/04/a-look-at-chinas-ghost-cities/#584bbfb46235
This should be viewed as a good sign.
Pro-business folks have often argued in places such as New York and San Francisco that high rents were caused by regulations inhibiting supply, and otherwise they could build their way out of the housing shortage and bring rents down.
Anti-business folks argue that new housing increases rents by attracting more affluent people to the area, and that in already densely developed places developers could never build enough to bring rents down.
Well there has been a substantial liberalization of development constraints in urban portions of metro San Francisco, Boston and New York, although there is still exclusionary zoning in the suburbs. And there has been a surge of urban development.
Let’s see if my kids will be able to rent apartments in the neighborhood they grew up in, at least with roommates.