The News Is Bad, Unless You’re A Buyer
The Union Tribune reports from California. “Dragged down by declines in hiring and home-building, San Diego County’s economic outlook continued to plummet in March…marking the 23rd time in 24 months that the index has fallen, according to an index of leading economic indicators released yesterday by the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate at the University of San Diego. The indicators suggest continued weakness through the rest of 2008, with flat or declining employment, said USD economist Alan Gin, who compiles the index.”
“The weakest area of the economy continues to be housing. With home prices falling 19 percent and foreclosures jumping 128 percent over the past year, home builders cut their plans to build new homes, which could lead to further layoffs at construction firms.”
“Only 193 new residential units received building permits in March. That is the lowest number since November 1992, in the midst of the region’s previous housing recession. Only eight multifamily units were authorized, compared with 804 units in March 2007.”
“‘My guess is that all the foreclosures coming onto the market are keeping new units from being built,’ said Marney Cox, economist with the San Diego Association of Governments. ‘Until we slog our way through that, I doubt that we’ll see much of a pickup at all in the construction of new units.’”
“For the first quarter of 2008, total residential units authorized are down more than 63 percent compared with the first quarter of 2007. Single-family units authorized were down 48 percent while multifamily units authorized were down nearly 74 percent.”
“‘What is particularly troubling is that 2007 was already the slowest year for building permits since 1996,’ Gin said.”
The Desert Sun. “New figures released Wednesday show 729 Coachella Valley homes were sold in March…down 30.2 percent from March 2007, according to DataQuick. The median price for the valley was $330,000, down 17.5 percent from March of last year.”
“The resale of existing homes are also down, 25.1 percent from March 2007. New construction continues to take the biggest hit. The 119 new homes sold is down 58.5 percent from March 2007. March and April are usually two of the Coachella Valley’s stronger months.”
“Just last week, Windermere Real Estate had nine offers on a mid-level Cathedral City property that was in a stage of foreclosure, said Nathan Heibeck, director of agent development. ‘Banks are pricing REO inventory (which are in a stage of foreclosure) to sell and this property was priced to sell,’ Heibeck said.”
“In Riverside County, 53.6 percent of all homes that resold in March were foreclosure-related; statewide, it was 35.8 percent. DataQuick officials didn’t have specific percentages for the Coachella Valley.”
The Press Enterprise. “Rancho Cucamonga-based PFF Bancorp announced Wednesday evening it expects to post a loss of $159 million for the first quarter ending March 31. Like some rivals but to a larger extent, PFF has been hit hard by the Inland area’s housing downturn. As new homes have sat empty, amid rising foreclosures and dropping values, PFF has had trouble collecting on loans it made to home builders and residential developers.”
“The company also announced the sale of nearly all of the loan portfolio of Diversified Builder Services Inc., a PFF subsidiary. The subsidiary recorded a provision for loan losses of about $48 million in the quarter, reflecting write-downs associated with disposition of the portfolio.”
“Diversified Pacific Opportunity Fund, a private equity group headquartered in Rancho Cucamonga, recently purchased $60 million worth of loans from PFF for about 22.5 cents on the dollar.”
The Signal. “Despite speculation throughout the financial community that the Newhall Land and Farming Co.’s owner is on the verge of bankruptcy, officials with the Valencia builder remained tight-lipped this week.”
“LandSource’s forbearance agreement expired on April 16, and the debt negotiations have involved a reported $1.24 billion in loans. The partnership reportedly received a default notice early last week.”
“LandSource is comprised of Lennar Corp., LNR Property Corp. and MW Housing Partners, which is co-managed by MacFarlane partners and includes the California Public Employees’ Retirement System.”
“Asked Wednesday what, if any, kind of preparations have been made for the possibility of Newhall Land’s owner going bankrupt, Newhall Land spokeswoman Marlee Lauffer said: ‘I’m not going to respond to speculative questions. There are a variety of different options that are (under consideration).’”
“With some 15,000 acres and 23,000 homes, Newhall Land is LandSource’s primary investment. LandSource was formed in 2007.”
The Times Herald. “The local real estate market news is bad, unless you’re a buyer or investor interested in a Vallejo area house, local industry experts said Wednesday. Sales of homes in Vallejo and Benicia increased in the past month, and while average prices dropped, the decline may be slowing, Solano Association of Realtors president Lori Collins said.”
“‘What this means for sellers is that prices are still going down,’ Collins said. ‘I know of a house in Glen Cove that sold recently for about $300,000. That’s a house that a few years ago would have been $500,000 at least.’”
“‘For buyers, this is great news. There are homes in Vallejo that are really becoming affordable. It’s a great time for investors. We’re reaching a situation where an investor can rent out a house and the rent will cover the mortgage with possibly money left over. We haven’t seen that in long time,’ Collins said.”
“Vallejo’s median price fell about 33 percent since last year, while sales were down about 32 percent compared to a year ago, according to the latest industry statistics.”
“Alan Schwartzman of Benicia’s Advance Mortgage, said he senses that the amount and depth of price reductions locally has diminished. In other words, if values are still dropping, they may not be in free fall any more, he said.”
“‘Also, because the prices have come down, there’s a lot more inventory within the FHA (federally insured loan) limit, so people can buy with 3 percent down,’ Schwartzman said. ‘And 3 percent of $300,000 is a lot easier to come up with than 3 percent of $450,000.’”
“‘I feel there’s a lot more positive now than there was six months ago,’ he said. ‘I see it, I feel it and I believe it.’”
The Oakland Tribune. “Overgrown weeds. Trash abandoned in yards. Vandals stripping homes of copper and whatever they can sell for cash. Squatters moving in. Drug use. Foreclosed homes that go dark and neglected are leaving behind a trail of blight that Richmond officials and neighbors fear makes neighborhoods unsightly and attracts crime.”
“‘What happens with these properties has a serious potential to have a major destabilizing impact on neighborhoods,’ said Richmond police Chief Chris Magnus. ‘All it takes is a couple of foreclosures in an area as small as 100-owner occupied properties to have a dramatic impact on crime.’”
“Richmond has 2,242 homes entering or in foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac. The number of foreclosed homes from January to March increased 275 percent from that same period in 2007, a trend that is not unusual in a number of Bay Area cities, including Antioch and Brentwood, said Andrew LePage, a spokesman for DataQuick.”
“The value of a home near a vacant property typically drops by about $50,000, which affects neighbors and city property tax revenue, Magnus said, citing figures from mortgage industry reports.”
“Officials are trying to get blighted properties fixed, Magnus said. When it comes to foreclosed homes, figuring out who owns the property can be difficult. Sometimes, owners walk away or banks avoid retaking the title quickly so they don’t have the liability and responsibility of maintaining the properties or paying property taxes.”
“There is no easy solution. Wood boards often are used to cover windows and keep potential vandals out, but some in Richmond’s North and East neighborhood don’t think that’s the best tactic.”
“‘Boarding it up is supposed to keep people out, which is a good thing,’ resident Sandi Genser-Maack said. ‘We don’t want people squatting, but we don’t like boarding it up because it looks bad, it makes the neighborhood look bad.’”
The Mercury News. “California may be loosening its grip on two groups that helped define the Golden State during the 20th century: predominantly white baby boomers, who are now approaching retirement age, and Hispanics.”
“What’s happening with the white population is not classic ‘white flight,’ demographers say, but a departure of middle-income people for economic reasons.”
“‘It’s kind of an ongoing middle-class flight in an area that’s very pricey,’ said Bill Frey, a Brookings Institution demographer who analyzed the census numbers. ‘I think the steady state for coastal California, especially the Bay Area, will be people leaving that can’t afford to stay, given the housing prices and the cost of living.’”
“To demographers, one of the most interesting phenomena in the new numbers is what they say about the place of older, mostly white baby boomers in California.”
“The new data suggests that on the cusp of retirement, boomers in their late 50s and early 60s ‘are definitely moving out of California,’ said Mark Mather, associate VP of a demographic think tank in Washington, D.C. ‘People thinking about retirement are still moving out of high-cost states like California in favor of less crowded, less expensive areas.’”
“Whether boomers and whites will continue to leave is uncertain. Already, say demographers, there are hints in the new census data that the white population loss is slowing, perhaps because the housing slump is locking people in place.”
The Bakersfield Californian. “Real estate agent David Crisp’s former mansion sold Friday for $1.2 million, according to the Bakersfield MLS.”
“The sale price was about $500,000 lower than what Crisp, 28, paid for the 6,666-square-foot Seven Oaks home less than three years ago. When it was foreclosed on in December, he had borrowed at least $2.1 million against the property.”
“Crisp and his ex-business partner, Carl Cole, 60, have been linked to dozens of foreclosed properties, an ongoing Californian tally shows.”