January 1, 2015

Housing Bubble Predictions: 2015

What are your new year housing bubble predictions? Six months ago, “Okay midyear prediction. I was wrong last December. But I keep trying. Anyway: Stocks will do well through early November. The S&P 500 will finish 2014 positive. Could be in the double digit percentage gain at least by election day in November. If the percentage gain is above 20% by then, watch for a correction taking the S&P down, but overall finishing in the single digit percentage gain on the closing bell the last trading day of the year compared to opening bell on the first trading day of 2014.”

One said, “The Fed has no choice but to monetize this Wurlitzer in order to prevent asset price drops, pumping nominal house prices up to generate increased property tax revenues, thereby bailing out municipalities, and upping prices of things in general, to increase sales tax revenue. In the process, amnesty that the Home Builders and Realtors are lobbying for, will be granted. This adds 15-35 million new household formers to the picture. Once legitimacy is established for these millions, Fanny, Freddy, FHA, etc will solicit these new customers to join the ‘Murikan dream, absorbing 14 million vacancies, plus what ever in addition need to be built to accommodate these new ‘citizens.’”

“Lagging incomes will begin rising as this tsunami of new money, and velocity of same, exponentially increases. The Fed will see to it the money gates remain wide open until inflation is running double digit, and interest rates are up to around 100 basis points behind it. Rising asset prices this time around are most likely in response to the devaluation of the Buck, now getting underway. If the Fed sees another negative GDP print coming, best spend some of that depreciating cash on a crash helmet, ’cause the Three Wire bales of C-Notes will be falling from the heavens. It’s all the Keynesian fools know.”

“No, house prices aren’t going back to 1963’s $5 k, the Dow isn’t going back to 750 and a cup of Joe 5 cents. I don’t expect gas at 27 cents, either. Three steps forward, one step back is the norm. This time around it took two steps back. The next Great Leap Forward is going to catch a lot of folks off guard, but it just isn’t different this time, it’s just a bit more extreme. I am shopping Northern California*, Oregon Coastal positive ROI property again. Better to be early in these inevitable trend swings than late. And this Deflation meme is getting very long in the tooth, as the price of everything from rent to food to fuel has risen, and I need those things.”

One year ago, “I was the one that disagreed with oil dropping to $80 but I thought gold would hold up. The level of manipulation surprised even me. However, I predict for very similar reasons that I said last year, that both oil and gold will be up. Oil very slightly from here but gold to about 1450. Assad has a 50/50 chance of leaving office this year. If it happens it will probably be a negotiated settlement. Iraq has become even more unstable this year as predicted but it has not impacted oil production sufficiently to move the needle but I think that may occur this year.”

One had this, “U.S. home prices will rise at a slower rate than they did in 2013. Long-term U.S. bonds will continue to tank as the QE3 taper takes effect. Financial collapse bagholder identification process will continue in 2014.”

Bits Bucket for January 1, 2015

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