Mid-Year Housing Bubble Predictions
The year is half gone and it’s time for your predictions. Six months ago: “Canadian Real Estate tanking. There is no reason your real estate should be worth twice mine when we are just across the border. It’s not like you have much better jobs and lower taxes.”
A reply, “You are absolutely right. And I think its tanking all across Canada, certainly in Toronto and Vancouver. Reason? I am not hearing of a single Chinese buyer at the new housing developments. New sales look like they have hit a wall. Across the border from me the prices have always seemed to be less in the States, but again I agree with you. Our jobs are no better and our homes are comparable. No reason for the difference.”
Another said, “I predict that cybercurrencies in general and bitcoin in particular will end up destroying thousands of people’s financial lives.”
One year ago. “I predict the Fed will walk back rate hike plans and the GSEs will continue to loosen lending standards in order to perpetuate Housing Bubble 2.0 as long as possible. These efforts will come to naught, as Housing Bubble 2.0 dies in 2018 of complications due to morbid obesity.’
And finally, “I always talk about consumption demand versus speculative demand, so I’ll post my opinion within that context: 1) Consumption demand should remain stable. I think it typically is, except when there are population shifts.”
“2) Speculative demand (includes pure speculative plus hybrid consumption-speculative demand): Locally I saw a price surge after the election, from November to say March or April. Like 100-150K surges. I attribute that to expectations after the election that the economy would improve and stocks and real estate would be favored. Also, the GSEs raised conforming loan limits back in late November as well.”
“BUT - there’s the one interesting thing, increasingly hawkish talk from the US and European central bank. Could it be a change in thinking or just a desire to get interest rates up so they have room to drop them in a future recession? Is it just talk?”
“On another note, I’m sure the populist/anti-establishment wave has caught their attention. All the central banks are capable of doing is redistributing wealth by their expert hand, perhaps they feel they’ve gone as far as they can go. Perhaps.”
“My suspicion is prices will plateau during the 2nd half the year, having surged already.”