December 30, 2017

Housing Bubble Predictions For 2018

What’s your housing bubble prediction for 2018? From ten years ago. “I predict that 2008 is when the housing bubble outside the US starts to deflate. This includes Canada, Mexico, UK, Spain, and others. The rest of the world is still in ‘it’s different here’ denial, but in the end, economic principals suggest that while everywhere is ‘different,’ nowhere is really that different when it comes to over-valued and over-build housing markets. This will cause the world-wide credit crunch to be more severe, as borrowers in other parts of the world start defaulting like their US cousins.”

From five years ago. “Due to the detrimental economic impact of an omnipresent and increasing shortage of cash, the Fed will feel compelled to alleviate the problem through invoking QE3. The stock market will rally as a consequence.”

From one year ago. “Predictions for 2017:

1-Someone comes along and finally recognizes that successful Communist/Marxists are Capitalists.
2- We raise interest rates three times and the Market cracks.
3- Nike starts a line of rubber boots that become a fashion item in coastal areas.
4- Real estate muddles along until the fourth quarter of 2017.
5- Miami announces another wave of condo construction funded by the laundering of money which is now acceptable in municipal Miami political circles.
6- I am appointed in Trump’s administration to the newly formed cabinet post, Secretary of Asphalt, fulfilling a personal life-long dream.
7- Oklahoma appoints a legislative team to study how they can market earthquakes.
8- Water rights become a jurisdiction issue for fifty States.
9- Goldman Sachs announces that it knew nothing about anything that people claimed Goldman Sachs knew about.
10- “Over-capacity” comes back into the lexicon of speech.
11- Bed, Bath and Beyond announce store closings arising from AMZ encroachments.
12- Greece announces that it’s still here and it requests to be put back into the weekly news on Wednesdays.
13 - A spelling team at the Federal reserve publishes a paper explaining why the “n” in Wednesday comes after the letter “d”.
14- Janet Yellin explains “backwardation” and “contango” at a Senate hearing and three distinguished Senators fall asleep during her testimony.
15- CALPERS announce that their projected ROI for their pensions will no longer be published until new studies are completed in the fourth quarter of 2020.
16- The rent for coastal apartments rise 7-10%.

A healthy New Year to one and All !!!”

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-12-30 09:27:35

Bellaire, TX Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Housing Correction Expands

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-30 12:24:23

Is this a prediction or an observation?

Comment by azdude
2017-12-30 16:12:10

pipe dream

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-30 16:56:33

Remember Poet….. Nothing accelerates the economy and creates jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.

Calabasas, CA Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As Speculators Dump Properties

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Comment by Jingle Male
2017-12-31 23:03:34

Sure HA, just like the crash in 2007!

I predict HA/Mafia will continue to be wrong 90% of the time.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-03 11:46:21


National City, CA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY

Comment by SFMF
2017-12-30 09:29:52

In 2018 MAGA kicks into full gear post tax cuts. I predict 4%+ GDP growth for the year. The problem is after 8 years of Obama, people’s expectations have been lowered. They think 1-2% growth is the new normal. It’s not. It was the new normal under a socialist regime, which thankfully is over.

Comment by BlueSkye
2017-12-30 14:44:34

I know you like Trump. So do I!

However, GDP is an awful way to gauge the health of our economy. Really awful. Especially when prices are falling and debt is increasing.

Comment by SFMF
2017-12-30 15:12:58

How else do you propose we measure it? GDP is the only way to gauge the health of our economy. When prices fall, GDP doesn’t grow. See 1930s as Exhibit A. So if prices fall next year, it will be reflected in either negative or vey small positive GDP growth.

However my prediction is there will be no falling anything. Employment, stocks, real estate….all going up next year. Only thing that will fall is liberal hopes.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-30 15:49:58

Incorrect. Falling prices stimulates demand thus increasing GDP.

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Comment by BlueSkye
2017-12-30 18:18:30

Exactly, and “GDP” doesn’t value things less because price has fallen!

“Governments use GDP as a comparison tool to analyze an economy’s purchasing power and growth over time. This is done by looking at the economic output of two periods and valuing each period with the same average prices and comparing the two together.

Read more: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The big scam is that GDP is increased simply by increasing debt spending. It’s not a real indicator of the health of the economy, even if the numbers aren’t cooked.

Comment by oxide
2017-12-31 18:09:43

I’d measure it by the number of people who cancel their food stamps.

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Comment by tj
2017-12-31 21:39:08

I’d measure it by the number of people who cancel their food stamps.

that’s pretty good thinking. might have to watch for changes in food stamp rules though..

i knew of a guy that used to measure freeway noise.

Comment by Overbanked
2017-12-30 14:47:39

In 2018 21 year-old sigma chi dorks will repeatedly remark about socialists/communists/collectivists/demikrats/etc. ruining the USA and never mention that the GOP has been the majority in the House of Representatives for 20 of the last 24 years.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-30 15:43:02

I came across this:

‘I do not dispute the growth in GDP and the market. But, to claim the upward trend in the market is unique to or the fruit of this presidency ignores seven years of upward trend that started under the previous president. The current “rally” is the tail end of a trend line that started in 2010.’

‘Euphoria around the market also ignores the growing warnings of economists that market levels are not sustainable, and look eerily like pre-crash conditions in 1987, before the dot-com crash in 2001 and the housing bubble burst in 2006.’

‘When the market “corrects,” and it surely will, I wonder if the Trumpists will be so quick to lay credit at the feet of the blessed leader.’

Comment by SFMF
2017-12-30 16:05:00

Obama prepped us for 8 years and then just suddenly under Trump his brilliant economic planning finally paid off. Just like ISIS getting defeated in 2017 was just the execution of Obama’s brilliant planning for 8 years. Or the return of coal. Or the return of midwest manufacturing. That poor Barrack, all his brilliance only executing once he left office and the new guy getting credit. LOL

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-30 16:25:11

I’m not a big fan of the “everything that happens when so and so is president is his doing” thing. The stock market did take off the day after the election. But the President said there was a “big fat bubble” during the campaign. And he knows what’s going on with Manhattan real estate better than anyone cuz he owns more than anyone.

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-30 18:59:30

“‘When the market “corrects,” and it surely will, I wonder if the Trumpists will be so quick to lay credit at the feet of the blessed leader.’”

I predict that at this point, the Obama blame game will resume.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-30 19:09:40

And why not?

‘the fruit of this presidency ignores seven years of upward trend that started under the previous president. The current “rally” is the tail end of a trend line that started in 2010.’

‘Euphoria around the market also ignores the growing warnings of economists that market levels are not sustainable, and look eerily like pre-crash conditions in 1987, before the dot-com crash in 2001 and the housing bubble burst in 2006′

We have posters say, “Bush caused the housing bubble!” Nobody dislikes the Bush family more than me, but check this repost out:

‘Senate Committee Hearings on Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac 2004′

‘Barney Frank, Maxine Waters and various other Democrats defend Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and their Practices, Bonuses and Books. This compilation of C-SPAN videos during the Regulatory Hearings in 2004, shows that the regulating body was aware of the staggering problem that was growing so large that it could have a crippling effect on our banking system and economy. The Head of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight was reporting the results of their findings within Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.’

‘Facts and Figures were laid out in 2004 that could’ve greatly reduced the impact on our economy. However, 75% of the people that voiced their displeasure to the information at hand, were people of color and several implications that this could be construed as a race issue.’

‘When things aren’t addressed as they should’ve been in 2004 we wind up with what we have today…Here’s the problem. This hearing was held in order to review a potential problem. There were solid Facts and Figures laid out and our Democratic Leaders shrugged it off and Blamed the Director of OFHEO, Armando Falcon for casting doubt on the success of the program. Franklin Raines calls the Real Estate Portfolios, “Riskless”.

‘At 6:16 of the video, Listen to how much Raines and his cohorts raked in for all their hard work and Riskless oversight. Listen all the way to the end of that segment. Not only did Raines get Double his Salary in his Bonus alone, but if they had followed the Rules according to Regulatory law, No One Should Have received a bonus that year. Yet they hit the Maximum right to the Penny.’

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Comment by BlueSkye
2017-12-30 22:05:00


Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-30 23:09:18

“Bush caused the housing bubble!”

If any president deserves credit, then it is William Jefferson Clinton. The Housing Bubble was already a raging financial inferno by the time George W. Bush took office.

Comment by Overbanked
2017-12-31 08:45:03

1997 Tax Cuts - $500k tax-free “sale of personal residence” every two years (including your fully-depreciated - often more than once - rentals)

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-31 11:58:59

The double digit health insurance increases happening year after year after year after year can be directly attributed to your beloved King Obama, and all that money getting sucked into the health insurance black hole won’t be going into the stock market or housing.

Tom Steyer was on C-SPAN this morning talking about impeaching Drumpf. Good luck with that, looser

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Comment by MacBeth
2017-12-31 13:10:30

Free phones for all!

PSST - let’s all meet at 6:00 pm* in front of Apartment 101’s house, start a protest and punch out anyone we find offensive.

Your Local Community Organizer

*We already gave you free phones. You can’t expect to continue to pay you as well. Blame Trump.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-12-31 20:12:04

“…all that money getting sucked into the health insurance black hole won’t be going into the stock market or housing…”

Considering the massive stock market and housing bubbles, I’m not sure that matters.

Comment by Can'tRecall
2017-12-31 16:47:10

Well stated.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-30 09:47:32

I predict that cybercurrencies in general and bitcoin in particular will end up destroying thousands of people’s financial lives.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-30 12:27:27

I predict that millions of people will commit financial suicide by purchasing cryptocurrencies just before the massive crash.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-30 12:49:53

I predict that most of the losses will occur by those who have been conditioned to buy dips. As the price drops the incentive (as they see it) is to buy more.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-30 10:14:14

“Bitcoin Craters, Loses Large Chunk Of Value”

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-30 17:41:04

Shoeshine boy moment: Millennial was charting and trading buttcoin for the full duration of my four hour flight home from flyover.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-31 11:02:17

This was yesterday. From my side of the aisle, it seemed that he was trying to spot the buying opportunity in what clearly appeared to be a hangman’s noose chart pattern.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-31 11:14:49

A Very Merry Crashmas to cryptocurrency traders one and all!

By Andrew Marshall
Crypto Market Crash - Not The New Year’s Present Everyone Hoped For

The cryptocurrency market has experienced a powerful drop this Friday and Saturday. Coins were losing value across the board, with just three of the top twenty by market capitalization displaying growth of over 10 percent: Cardano, Qtum and Neo.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has dropped from a Friday high of $15,266 to as low as $12,350 on Saturday. The past two weeks have been very volatile for the original cryptocurrency, as it has achieved an all-time high of $20,000 on Dec. 17, 2017, only to hold it for a single day and consequently lose about 32 percent of that value, as of press time.

The latest fall seems to be the continuation of that trend, with no recovery in sight yet.

Ripple, which has just recently displaced Ethereum as the highest altcoin by market capitalization, has similarly dropped by at least 20 percent over the past two days. Despite experiencing a powerful surge this week, it hasn’t been spared from the “crypto massacre.”

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Comment by BlueSkye
2017-12-31 13:19:09


What an unfortunate name for something that’s only value is capturing the imagination.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-31 14:06:43


What an unfortunate name…”

Seems perfectly apropos!

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-12-31 20:37:58

The real crash will be when Bitcoin craters below $1,000. It’s still enjoying lofty highs.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-12-31 21:00:28

Cardano, Qtum and Neo
Gotta get ‘em all - like Pokemon or Beanie Babies.

What an unfortunate name…”
Seems perfectly apropos!

Zima (right below Ripple) - I forgot about that stuff. When we were in the bar business, I used to tease a customer who drank it, telling him “Zima zucks.”

Similar topic web site, . Reminded me of when I had an after school job in the Bowery. I’d climb over passed out guys on the stairs coming up out of the subway (liquor store was right there). That stuff will give you brain damage.

Happy New Year!

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-31 15:12:29

By William Suberg
Bitcoin Headed ‘Below $5k,’ Is ‘One Of Silliest Things’ - Dennis Gartman To CNBC

Gartman Letter creator and former trader Dennis Gartman has said Bitcoin will trade “below $5,000” and that it is “one of the silliest things in a long time.”

In two appearances on newly Bitcoin-bearish TV network CNBC, Gartman stressed the implausibility of the virtual currency and said he would have no contact or exposure to it.

“I’m very bearish on Bitcoin, I think it’s one of the silliest ideas I’ve heard in a long time,” he told its Futures Now segment Saturday.

Speaking on Worldwide Exchange previously, Gartman added Bitcoin makes “no sense whatsoever.”

“I won’t trade it. I won’t be long of it. I won’t be short of it,” he announced, failing to see the merits of “some sort of an asset that has no real asset value behind it.”

The Wall Street veteran’s perspective is typical of the highly critical approach a diminishing number of traditional finance figures continue to hold on Bitcoin.

While some of the most famous naysayers have either U-turned or quietened down on the topic, some, including central bank chiefs and even entire governments, maintain that it will evaporate.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-31 15:14:15

Does anyone take the impression that I am 🐻 ISH on buttcoin?

Comment by rms
Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-31 20:08:07

That nails my position… LOL!

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Comment by Anonymous
2017-12-30 10:52:48

Happy New Year HBB! :D

Comment by sod
2017-12-30 11:03:20

I predict that I’ll get to hear *beep* *beep* *beep* *beep* *beep* for the next 6-8 months.

55+ complex breaking ground right outside the back steps of my apartment (also Greystar).

Happy effing New Year!

Comment by oxide
2017-12-31 18:21:23

I’ve never seen 55+ rentals before. So I looked up this Overture company.

There’s a complex for 62+ in Fairfax, VA:

1-bed/1-bath starting at $2175/month
2-bed/1-bath starting at $3510/month

Good lord.

Here’s a 55+ in Raleigh, NC:

1-bed/1-bath starting at $1445/month
2-bed/1-bath starting at $2600/month

My god!!!

Comment by Jingle Male
2017-12-31 23:29:01

Probably includes dining…..

Comment by butters
2018-01-02 12:09:45

Salary difference between Fairfax and Raleigh? 10%? 15%?

Comment by 2banana
2017-12-30 11:19:29

Several congressmen and senators are accused of pedophilia.

Bubbles everywhere crack.

Senate and House remain Republican.

Hillary still is in the news

Coal makes a Yuge comeback.

Russia and America conduct joint operations against islamic

Comment by 2banana
2017-12-30 11:21:19

Several congressmen and senators are accused of pedophilia.

Bubbles everywhere crack.

Senate and House remain Republican.

Hillary still is in the news

Coal makes a Yuge comeback.

Russia and America conduct joint operations against islamic terrorists.

Comment by palmetto
2017-12-30 12:14:46

“Russia and America conduct joint operations against islamic terrorists.”

BZZZZZZZZZT! Wrong. As of right now, Russia and China are conducting joint operations against the US, using NoKo as the tip of the spear.

Comment by rms
2017-12-30 15:31:29

Aren’t Russians and Americans sleeping together in the Space Station?

Comment by Obama Goons
2017-12-30 11:40:18

NYC Trump Condos Plummet In Price: Report

It doesn’t seem to bother President Trump. He just does what he’s gotta do to MAGA.

God bless President Trump and God Bless America.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-30 12:29:39

“He just does what he’s gotta do to MAGA.”

Make America Greatly Affordable?

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-30 12:17:52

President Trump’s new Fed chair will get serious about ending extraordinary accommodation, sending Bitcoin into a fatal tailspin.

Comment by Patrick
2017-12-30 12:38:06

I predict in 2018:

1. We prove that the Noko bomb is mostly an Iranian co-development.

2. GDP grows at 4%

3. Republicans keep control of house and senate; not a good alternative

4. Prairies can soon ship 1 million barrels/day to vancouver harbour

5. USA and Canada agree to new NAFTA; Mexico maybe

Comment by BlueSkye
2017-12-30 22:08:21

Canadian Real Estate tanking. There is no reason your real estate should be worth twice mine when we are just across the border. It’s not like you have much better jobs and lower taxes.

Comment by Patrick
2018-01-01 19:01:43


You are absolutely right. And I think its tanking all across Canada, certainly in Toronto and Vancouver.

Reason ? I am not hearing of a single Chinese buyer at the new housing developments. New sales look like they have hit a wall.

Across the border from me the prices have always seemed to be less in the States, but again I agree with you. Our jobs are no better and our homes are comparable. No reason for the difference.

Comment by Taxpayers
2017-12-30 13:19:22

The 15 % claw back rate turns out to be a dud

Comment by palmetto
2017-12-30 18:15:32

Yes, but the 100% Executive Order Clawback rate will turn out to be a big hit.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-12-30 14:26:11

Let’s see, what did I predict last year?

Comment by Ol’Bubba
2016-12-31 06:46:26

2017 Predictions:
1. Uncertainty.
2. Everyone will speak their book.
3. Things expected to happen quickly will take longer than expected.
4. Things expected to happen slowly will happen more quickly than expected.
5. HA will change his handle more frequently than his socks and underwear.

Comment by Jingle Male
2017-12-31 23:34:09

HA, ha.

Comment by GreenEggsAndSpam
2017-12-30 15:29:39

Best analogy for housing is a vernal pool - a temporary pool providing a habitat for life in the springtime that desiccates in the summer. As the biggest vernal pool continues to get crowded and dry up, we see the critters that have come to depend on that jumping to other, lesser pools - hence high end RE sitting while the low end gets bid up, thereby raising the median price which the media pimps point to as a sign that the market is still healthy. But the relentless heat of summer (and higher rates) will eventually leave the environment dry and desolate.

Similar too is the crypto space. There will be more spectacular rises and falls in coins you’ve never heard of along with hacks where “investors” lose, literally, kajillions. The vernal pools, however, eventually give way to desert and afterwards it will be acknowledged that the bloom was off that tulip some time ago but nobody wanted to admit it. Prosecutions of the shadiest operators will take place.

McCain and Ginsberg will finally meet their makers. Freedom lovers across the globe will rejoice in celebration.

The MAGA army shall defend the nation from the deep state, whatever the cost may be, they shall fight on the social media platforms, they shall fight in the courts, they shall fight in the fields and in the streets, they shall fight in the hills; they shall never surrender.

Comment by palmetto
2017-12-30 17:21:00

The stakes are really, really high, IMO. People in the US for the most part have NO idea how bad it can get. Most have never experienced a real coup, refugee situations, mass imprisonment, Venezuela type government suppression, post World War survival, Stalin style round-ups. People seem to think these things can’t happen here.

They can. And to know how you’d be treated, you have only to look at any of the more violent Trump rallies, where some of the people were literally bloodied, and with great glee. Or look over at Europe, where in countries like England, France, Germany and Sweden, you have cops arresting their own neighbors for doing nothing more than saying the wrong thing, or defending themselves from Muslims.

You think the military is on “your side”? Not necessarily. We’ve got two “retired” or released military who are active on one of the local forums in the Tampa Bay area. They literally despise Trump and his voters and they can be vicious about them. There is no doubt in my mind that if they had their way, they would gladly execute anyone who supports Trump, without a second thought, and consider it all in a day’s work.

So that’s what we’re up against, and I don’t think there is any compromising going forward. I don’t know what this country is going to look like after eight years of Trump, but I hope there’s a huge sea change and that the door is firmly closed on the commies.

Comment by Anonymous
2017-12-31 10:04:34

In recent years, hasn’t much / most of the violence or violent rhetoric come from left wing protests and riots?

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-31 11:43:31

All of it.

Charlottesville was paid actors.

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Comment by oxide
2017-12-31 18:26:59

Does anyone else dimly remember the K *ahem* K requesting a permit to hold an assembly at the bottom of the Capitol steps each year? Each year it was controversial but they were granted the permit on 1st amendment grounds. They’d have a peaceful hate rally and go home. The protests only started when Trump was elected.

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Comment by azdude
2017-12-30 16:14:13

im drunk looking at homes on zillow.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-12-31 20:41:31

Seems fitting for a HELOC abuser.

Comment by Jingle Male
2017-12-31 23:39:02

Paid back my $100,000 HELOC. Even at 1.99% interest (floater), I cannot deduct it starting tomorrow! Happy Year!

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-30 16:44:15

Denver’s homeless population will increase.

Not just the gutter punks on the 16th Street Mall, or the veterans (or fake veterans) panhandling on every corner of every major intersection in the city.

Families living in RVs or vans or smaller cars is #Denver2018.

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-30 16:47:56

The U.K. Subs — I Live In A Car:

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-30 23:17:54

Given that Sunday’s forecast is 18/4 I can’t fathom why the homeless stay here. California I can understand, it rarely goes below 32.

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-31 11:45:38

Recreational weed becomes legal in California (the most impoverished state in the country) tomorrow. Time to ship all of Denver’s homeless there.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-31 12:46:18

Works for me. Bon voyage, stoners.

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-12-30 17:01:29

Neptune Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY

Comment by cactus
2017-12-30 17:13:14

Government debt will increase , state local and federal and they will need to continue to come up with ways to scare us into paying them more.

Health care insurance will increasingly turn into HSA accounts like pensions turned into 401Ks.

Housing prices will go up about 5%. Rent will level off or fall.

S&P 500 Who Knows I sure don’t. what about all thoses who were convinced Trump would crash the economy and sold a year ago?

Comment by azdude
2017-12-30 17:42:51

higher rates will expose the phony economy and leaving folks bankrupt.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-30 23:15:18

Health care insurance will increasingly turn into HSA accounts like pensions turned into 401Ks.

Plus more HD plans with higher and higher deductibles.

Comment by jeff
2017-12-30 18:21:52

I predict Owl Gore and the Cabonazis will complete the 180 degree settled science turn from Global Warming to Climate Change and pivot back to the 1970s settled science facts that humans once again are the dominant cause of Global cooling.

Global cooling - Wikipedia

Dear Abby

Image 11/47 Happy New Year

Comment by palmetto
2017-12-30 19:06:08

If you live in Florida and don’t own a house, what are you waiting for? If you think it’s crowded now, just wait until Global Cooling gets ramped up. Buy now or be priced out fawevah!

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-30 19:10:53

I predict that California will continue to be the top marijuana producing state, and that its mysterious interstate pot trade surplus will continue.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-30 19:18:40

As the top pot-producing state in the nation, California could be on thin ice with the federal government
Pot plants
A warden with the California Department of Fish and Wildlife hacks down marijuana plants found growing in a deep ravine in the Sierra Nevada foothills near Kernville. (Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times)
Patrick McGreevyPatrick McGreevyContact Reporter

California produced at least 13.5 million pounds of marijuana last year — five times more than the 2.5 million pounds it consumed.

Where did all that extra pot go?

Comment by Professor 🐻
Comment by Anonymous
2017-12-31 10:16:34

Interesting that minivans are now the smuggler’s choice of vehicle. Or maybe it’s simply that they are moving so much of this stuff, they need a van, a card won’t suffice?

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Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-12-31 06:37:47

Where did all that extra pot go?

It probably went up in smoke!

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-31 09:45:34

True. But the logical conclusion from the numbers in the story is that the majority of the weed was first exported or shipped to other states.

When you think of it, 2.5 million pounds, or 40 million ounces, of marijuana itself is enough for every man, woman and child who lives in California to enjoy an ounce of their own. And I have not seen, touched or even smelled marijuana since moving here over two decades ago. I suspect that many other Californians are similarly removed from the drug trade, suggesting that some Californians consume a lot of ganja.

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Comment by cactus
2017-12-30 20:15:20

“We believe this incident is a case of swatting,” said Livingston, referring to an extreme practical joke that has made headlines in recent years

The deadly prank began Thursday when a 911 operator in Wichita, Kan., received a call from a man who claimed he had shot his father and was now holding the rest of his family hostage. When police surrounded a house at the valid Wichita address, a confused 28-year-old man, Andrew Finch, stumbled out his front door. Within seconds, he had been fatally shot.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-12-31 06:43:07

A few days ago Ritholtz posted this graphic. It displays police shootings per 100k population and the portion that were fatal in the largest police departments:

As tragic as the Wichita incident is, shouldn’t we as a society be asking why so many police shootings result in fatalities?

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-12-31 08:07:38

As tragic as the Wichita incident is, shouldn’t we as a society be asking why so many police shootings result in fatalities?

The answer to that is obvious: police are trained to shoot to kill. They never attempt to take a non-lethal shot; if things have gotten to the point where they are prepared to shoot, they’re shooting for center-of-mass. Turns out you have a lot of important stuff within a few inches of center-of-mass.

That info-graphic is interesting alright; my interpetation is that it shows where police are poorly trained.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-31 08:38:22

I always think of this incident:

‘No charges for 8 LAPD officers who fired 100 bullets on innocent women during hunt for deranged ex-cop Christopher Dorner’

‘Prosecutors are declining to criminally charge eight Los Angeles police officers who injured two innocent women after mistakenly riddling their pickup truck with more than 100 bullets during a manhunt for cop-turned-killer Christopher Dorner, according to a report released Wednesday.’

‘The Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office said there was insufficient evidence to prove the officers acted unreasonably when they shot up the truck on Feb. 7, 2013, according to the report.’

‘Los Angeles Police Chief Charlie Beck previously found the 2013 shooting violated department policy. But, he said the officers involved would be allowed to return to the field after additional training because he had confidence in them.’

‘When one of the women threw a newspaper onto the pavement in the early-morning hours, an officer believing the sound was a gunshot opened fire. Officers unable to see clearly into the truck sprayed it with 103 rounds, and hit seven nearby homes and nine other vehicles with gunshots and shotgun pellets.’

‘Margie Carranza, then 47, suffered minor injuries from broken glass. Her then-71-year-old mother, Emma Hernandez, was shot in the back but survived. The women won a $4.2 million settlement from the city.’

‘In declining to press charges, prosecutors said they weren’t endorsing the officers’ conduct that day, but that they’re guided by legal principles.’

‘Attorney Glen Jonas, who represented the two women, criticized the district attorney’s office for the heavily redacted report, which has the majority of statements from the officers involved completely blacked out. “I can’t tell from that report whether the charging decision is correct,” Jonas said. “I don’t have faith in the decision … Either release it unredacted or don’t bother.”

IIRC, this truck was not the make or even the color of the one driven by the guy they were looking for.

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Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-31 11:47:51

Badge lickers and uniform fetishists need to be reminded of this.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-12-31 23:10:51

They never attempt to take a non-lethal shot;

Great reminder, Ben.

I occurred to me later when I re-read my post that perhaps I should have worded that slightly differently:

When taking a shot, they never attempt to make it non-lethal on purpose.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-12-31 09:08:51

“The answer to that is obvious: police are trained to shoot to kill.”

Exactly. And Ben’s story about the LAPD firing over 100 rounds is appalling.

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Comment by SFMF
2017-12-31 09:37:25

It’s really easy to a avoid getting shot….don’t commit crimes.

I’ve been pulled over a lot. And I mean a lot, I have a very heavy right foot. Never shot. Never beaten. Never “harassed” by da popo. Know why? Because I am respectful to the officer, follow directions, don’t try to run away. And not only have I never been shot, I’ve been given warnings more often than tickets.

And police are trained to do the exact opposite of shoot to kill. You think cops want the headaches of shooting someone? The possibility of going to jail? Race riots? Of course not. Shooting is the last step taken.

And take the number of shootings and divide it by the number of people arrested, or given tickets to. It’s a fraction of a fraction of a fraction that get shot. But of course, just going by the MSM you’d think every cop is out there mowing down people for fun every night.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-31 14:58:14

‘It’s really easy to a avoid getting shot….don’t commit crimes.’

The dead person in Wichita didn’t commit a crime.

Comment by Anonymous
2017-12-31 15:15:06

Apparently you didn’t actually read the account of what happened in Wichita.

Comment by SFMF
2017-12-31 17:11:27

I know all about what happened in Witchita. This is nothing new. Swatting has been going on for years. It’s how liberals roll.

Comment by Saltwater Catfish
2017-12-31 21:42:40

“It’s how liberals roll.”

How did this discussion suddenly become politicized? That’s just plain Stoopid.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-12-31 22:04:57

“I know all about what happened in Witchita. This is nothing new. Swatting has been going on for years. It’s how liberals roll.”

Wow, you take partisanship to a new level of nauseating.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-01 07:35:24

Plus this jerk can’t spell. Banned.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-01 07:55:25

And a parting gift to another enraged empty skull…..

“94,785,000 Not in Labor Force; At 62.9%, Labor Force Participation Stuck Near 38-Year Low”

Comment by tresho
2017-12-31 12:24:23

They never attempt to take a non-lethal shot;
I am unaware of any training that would give someone that ability — as opposed to luck. Projectiles tend to move unpredictably once they hit someone. At this moment my heart is 3.5 inches from my left wrist.

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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-12-31 23:14:29

I am unaware of any training that would give someone that ability

I was not suggesting that they should try to do so; and I agree with you. I was merely highlighting why it was obvious why many officer-involved shootings have lethal conclusions. Once they decide that it is necessary to take you down, they’re going to do their very best to put you down.

Comment by aNYCdj
2017-12-30 22:07:21

Some ideas

Pensions will be the big issue since states cant raise taxes anymore now that there is a $10K limit on deductibility…so maybe my idea will float blame it on workers who quit smoking or never started and end any early retirement at full pay…no more 30 years and out at 55 no more pension spiking or using left over sick vacation days.

Immigration is really simple tell me what country you want to pledge allegiance too and go live there. if you choose America then you have to do what it takes to become an America citizen

We need to eliminate press 1 for English, Eliminate all interpreters at immigration hearings. You must be fluent in English to stay. Hire a lawyer to file a stay from deportation

and with no criminal drug record become a naturalized citizen then your children become citizens too and DACA goes away on its own But i will never support amnesty….

They need to crack down on benefit abuse…. Make people sit in class 15 hours a week to learn English and Math pass or lose your EBT card make any meat fish chicken pork over $5 lb not eligible for food stamps

Do we really need so many bases overseas? Make the host country pay the bills or leave.

I dont see how we can raise interest rates to a more normal 5% with out a severe recession …….Here is a prediction RENTS will increase a lot on new high priced investment Homes because if you can only deduct 10K so your “profit” declines substantially.

What about IRAN’s protesting and the media is ignoring it

Homelessness is nuts but what to do, hoovervilles….maybe it will be necessary to round them up and provide services in a camp like area
or keep blowing money down a rat hole from 2010

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-31 09:40:30

Pensions will be the big issue since states cant raise taxes anymore now that there is a $10K limit on deductibility

You really think that’s going to stop them?

There’s only one state in the US where the state legislature can’t raise taxes without voter approval.

Comment by Anonymous
2017-12-31 10:30:11

The host countries do pay a lot toward US military presence there.

Comment by rms
2017-12-31 10:55:22

They also buy our treasuries. Compulsory.

Comment by aNYCdj
2017-12-31 15:14:27

Japan has agreed to pay as much as $12 billion to build a new U.S. base on Okinawa for thousands of Marines now at the U.S. installation in the town of Futenma. But that project has been repeatedly delayed by local opposition.

Comment by snake charmer
2018-01-01 10:47:48

We’re garrisoning the planet, that could not be more obvious. Probably because our sources of soft power, including our moral authority, largely have been squandered.

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-12-30 22:22:50

Hauula, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 29% YOY

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2017-12-30 23:33:11

1-Harriet Tubman will disappear as a $10 Alexander Hamilton replacement and will instead appear on the New York subway token.
2- If and when we raise interest rates two more times the Market will crack.
3- Nike will start a line of Buster Brown sneakers for sixty year-olds with good knees.
4- Second homes will mysteriously burn down in Connecticut, Upstate New York and New Jersey.
5- Miami will again announce another wave of condo construction funded again by Jorge Perez(The Reliance Group), by the laundering of money that again is the payment of preference in municipal Miami political circles.
7- North Carolina will appoint a legislative team to study how they can return to 1924.
8- After another Florida hurricane landfall, Florida will announce plans for the construction of a third reservoir to catch the algal bloom run-off from the second which is planned to catch the original algal bloom runoff of Lake Okeechobee.
9- Vancouver will celebrate the Chinese new-year and its flight money.
10- “Soft-landing” will come back into the lexicon of 2018 speech.
11- Bed, Bath and Beyond will announce a joint partnership with a pharmaceutical chain.
12- State Farm will request a 40% increase for Home Insurance, which is double what legislatures will eventually grant them.
13- Clinton’s daughter will announce her candidacy for an office that will give her Mom another excuse to campaign for the campaign platform that she ignored when she campaigned for her own campaign.
14- Greece will announce that it is donating to BREXIT followers its tin can.
15– The Federal Reserve will hold a joint gathering, next Summer, in Jackson Hole, to discuss the RECESSION and QE 4.
16- The Senate will pass legislation capping to 100, the number of Republican wives that can be appointed to their deceased husband’s seat.
17- CALPERS will announce that their projected ROI for their pensions will be greater than savings passbook interest. (They’ll have a shortfall of more than 50% by December 2018.)
18- Mongolia will be a new Summer bitcoin tourist destination.
19- Wells Fargo will be implicated in California scams for replacement housing financing arising from the fires homeowners suffered.
20- BTC will attract more hype and more “investors.”
21- Housing prices will be down 12% by December 2018.
22- Venezuela will become a problem with Iranian/Cuban/Russian intervention/support.
23- An article in the Wall Street Journal will give credit posthumously to Paul Macrae Montgomery for predicting Apple’s imminent eighteen month decline.
24- Greenspan will once again deny having any knowledge about hard salami or his last Watch at the FED.
25- Hillary will buy Kentucky Fried Chicken and tour the country dressed as Colonel Sanders asking people to vote for “him” in the next Presidential Election

A Healthy New Year to All

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-31 09:25:56

12- State Farm will request a 40% increase for Home Insurance, which is double what legislatures will eventually grant them.

Aren’t they already the most expensive insurance company to begin with? Or is that Farmers?

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2017-12-31 11:51:27

The thinking is that after a major storm State Farm will HAVE money to pay out. The main insurer in South Florida is underfunded.
Consider that people hate government intervention until a storm hits.

Coral Gables pushed debris and downed trees to the side of the road and waited for FEMA to show up with their trucks. Nearly a two-month wait. Then they asked for money to buy new trees. This is an area where most of the property taxes are $8k +. You spent your own money if you wanted your trees sectioned up.

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2017-12-31 11:52:34

Citizen’s is the underfunded “major” insurer.

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Comment by snake charmer
2018-01-01 10:53:56

In Tampa, my yard debris sat in a pile for well over six weeks after the hurricane. South Florida municipalities and counties were paying more per cubic yard for clearance, so that’s where the trucks went.

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Comment by snake charmer
2018-01-01 10:51:27

Well done. Also quite funny. As a Floridian, I agree completely with #5.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-01 14:42:56

Seriously, this is an awesome list. There are some really creative people on this blog. Happy New Year to all!

Comment by Sean
2017-12-31 05:35:43

Interest rates hikes, at least twice.

Realtors say “It’s a good time to buy”

Underwater Boomers refuse to “give it away”

People extend credit and buy junk they don’t need to can’t afford.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Except 2018 is the year Amazon buys Sears and uses it at a pickup, return, large item center.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-31 09:30:07

2018 is the year Amazon buys Sears and uses it at a pickup, return, large item center.

Given the rise in thefts from people’s front doors, this kind of makes sense, though they will need to find a way to keep the lines short. If you have to wait in a long line to pick up your package it won’t work, and they could expect a rush at the end of the day when most people get off work

Comment by aNYCdj
2017-12-31 09:40:50

even the sears in queens has a good sized parking lot so that wont be a problem

Comment by azdude
2017-12-31 10:27:44

sears has robbed shareholders of millions in equity.

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Comment by MacBeth
2017-12-31 12:59:58

So have a lot of other companies. And I bet you still give them your money voluntarily.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-31 10:49:45

even the sears in queens has a good sized parking lot so that wont be a problem

It’s still a problem if you have to stand in line in the store to get your package. The value in shopping at Amazon is that there are no lines. Not when you order, and your purchase is delivered to your front door. If you have to stand in line to pick up your package (say 20+ minutes), the value is gone.

Walmart already has the “order online, pick up at store” service. The line at the store is slow, very slow. They have to find your package. They have to validate that you are the purchaser. They have to record the delivery. I did it once. It was painfully slow.

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-31 12:50:21

I think it would have been quicker (at Walmart) to just buy the item the conventional way: walk in, go grab it from the shelf, self checkout, out of there.

Comment by MacBeth
2017-12-31 13:22:17

“Walmart already has the “order online, pick up at store” service. The line at the store is slow, very slow. They have to find your package. They have to validate that you are the purchaser. They have to record the delivery. I did it once. It was painfully slow.”

This is why I miss Service Merchandise. I thought they had a great setup. They would have only 1 model of a product on the floor for you to look at. If interested, you bring the product number to the cashier, pay for the product, and they deliver it to you vis chute or belt.

At many of their stores (not all), the chute or belt was located by the back door of the building. Your purchase would come to you via chute and you load it directly into your trunk with very few movements.

No screwing around with carts.

Comment by MacBeth
2017-12-31 10:24:37

I miss Service Merchandise.

Comment by Anonymous
2017-12-31 10:45:48

I remember Service Merchandise, but I can’t say I miss it LOL

Of course, I could say the same about Fedco, Fedmart, Gemco, White Front, Sages, TG&Y, Two Guys, etc. ;-)

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-31 12:52:46

When I was a kid, Gemco was the place to shop. IIRC, they sold all their stores to Target. Ditto with FedMart.

Comment by MacBeth
2017-12-31 12:57:09

Interestingly, I am totally unfamiliar with all the companies you mentioned. I have heard of none of them.

Woolworth’s, Ben Franklin, Marshall Fields, Venture. All gone, but I remember them.

How I wish Target would disappear. Overpriced and rarely carries anything I want to purchase. I have $400 in Target gift cards, and I have no idea what to spend it on. I do not need housewares, electronics or toys. Their clothing sucks and their food is significantly overpriced.

Comment by MacBeth
2017-12-31 13:03:10

Target has zero originality. Zero personality.

Perhaps they ought to open Applebee’s restaurants inside their stores.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-31 18:04:51

their food is significantly overpriced.

I assume that your gift cards were gifts, so in other words they’re free money (that you can only spend at Target). Why not use them to buy food?

Comment by oxide
2017-12-31 18:36:09

Why don’t you re-gift the cards to friends and family? Or at least give them to a local shelter or church? I’m sure they will find something at Target that they need.

Comment by MacBeth
2017-12-31 21:30:37

I like Oxide’s idea - maybe I’ll give them to Catholic Charities (no, I am not Catholic - it’s just hard to find reputable organizations). Maybe St Jude’s can use them.

I’m not about to buy overpriced food at Target. I don’t support what I consider rape. The prices on the products/brand names I typically buy are 15-25% higher at Target than at any other entity in town.

Comment by redmondjp
2017-12-31 22:04:04

There are also businesses that will buy or exchange your gift cards, for a fee of course.

Comment by azdude
2017-12-31 07:42:56

that this new money enters the economy as credit… and that the credit industry (Wall Street) has privileged access to it. The working man still has to earn his money, selling his work, by the hour. But Wall Street—and elite borrowers connected to the Establishment—get it without breaking a sweat or watching the clock.

…that a disproportionate share of this new money is concentrated in and around the credit industry—pushing up asset prices, raising salaries and bonuses in the financial sector, and making the rich (those who own financial assets) much richer.

Without honest money, real savings, and true interest rates, businesses and investors have nothing to guide them. They are lost in the woods. Few want to do the hard work, and take the risks, of long-term, capital-heavy ventures. Instead, the focus shifts to speculation, gambling… and playing the game for short-term profits.

Comment by rms
Comment by Overbanked
2017-12-31 08:47:59

More boots on the ground in more places cuz, you know, you can’t win if you don’t play.

And we won’t see photos of the “collateral damage” here.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-31 08:57:15

‘The Real Story Behind Katharine Graham and “The Post”

By Norman Solomon

‘Movie critics are already hailing “The Post,” directed by Steven Spielberg and starring Meryl Streep as Washington Post publisher Katharine Graham. Millions of people will see the film in early winter. But the real-life political story of Graham and her newspaper is not a narrative that’s headed to the multiplexes. ‘

‘Robert Parry — who was a Washington correspondent for Newsweek during the last three years of the 1980s — has shed some light on the shadows of Graham’s reassuring prose. Contrary to the claims in her book, Parry said he witnessed “self-censorship because of the coziness between Post-Newsweek executives and senior national security figures.”

‘Among Parry’s examples: “On one occasion in 1987, I was told that my story about the CIA funneling anti-Sandinista money through Nicaragua’s Catholic Church had been watered down because the story needed to be run past Mrs. Graham, and Henry Kissinger was her house guest that weekend. Apparently, there was fear among the top editors that the story as written might cause some consternation.” (The 1996 memoir of former CIA Director Robert Gates confirmed that Parry had the story right all along.)’

‘Graham’s book exudes affection for Kissinger as well as Robert McNamara and other luminaries of various administrations who remained her close friends until she died in 2001. To Graham, men like McNamara and Kissinger — the main war architects for Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon — were wonderful human beings.’

Comment by palmetto
2017-12-31 19:01:44

So I listened to this interview by John B. Wells with a fellow by the name of Robert (Cary) Snodgres, former CIA black ops contractor. It’s 2 1/2 hours, the first hour and a half is good and the last hour is mostly Wells and Snodgres talking about their personal development through finding the lord, which is not my thing. But, dang, the first hour and a half, what a window into the dark dealings of the shadow government. Anyone interested in what may have really happened at the Murrah Building and why will find this fascinating. Not to mention the juicy stuff on the Clintons and Bushes.

I did get a little pithed off when the guy broke down and started crying about his family and the danger they were in. Considering he had no qualms about harming others until things went a little too far and he was offered the contract on the Murrah Building and turned it down on the basis that he didn’t mind doing dirty stuff abroad, but doing stuff to US citizens was where he drew the line.

Anyway, be advised the guy has a book out and he is promoting it, so there’s that.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-12-31 21:27:53

Re: Snodgres
I heard him on the Haggman Report and thought the same thing. He also said he thought the money was low (half a million up front, another half when done), and that it might be a setup, with him as the patsy. Sounds like a real bad guy, not someone to be admired.

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Comment by palmetto
2018-01-01 08:35:36

Well, you see, he’s another one of these guys who found himself out in the cold with his funds cut off, became “born again” and wrote a book, so now he’s making the rounds of those who will listen to him. The information is fascinating, though. Especially the part about the Murrah building housing the Gulf War syndrome records and the Clinton Whitewater records. There have been a few of these types that have crawled out of the woodwork in the time of Trump.

No offense to Wells or Haggman, they mean well, but they’re playing the role of father confessors.

Poor Haggman, he really got played during the Weiner laptop incident. His “sources” in the NYPD blew a bunch of smoke up his arse about what they found and how they were going to blow the whistle. Then the whistle fell from their lips when Comey and McCabe stepped in. Yeah, real tough guys who were going to tell all no matter what!

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2017-12-31 11:12:54

Think “friendly fire.” Think about a society that can coin that phrase.

Comment by Overbanked
2017-12-31 08:53:42

I’ll get to watch 1 - ONE - college football game on New Years Day if I don’t have cable.

Oh wait that’s already in the bag.

January 1 2019 I’ll get NO college football on broadcast TV.

God Bless Disney

Comment by tresho
2017-12-31 12:27:42

January 1 2019 I’ll get NO college football on broadcast TV.
Are you bragging or complaining?

Comment by azdude
2017-12-31 09:02:55

“Prices are so distorted that if u want a car or a house u have to beg wall street for a loan.”

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-12-31 22:17:56

No, you simply pay cash.

Comment by miami33
2017-12-31 09:16:53

Ross Hancock sold his four-bedroom house in Coral Gables, a city of pastel luxury at the edge of Miami, because he was worried that sea-level rise would eventually hurt his property’s value. He and his wife, Darlene, downsized to a small condo on Biscayne Bay, perched atop one of the highest coral ridges in the area. There, he presumed, they would be safer.

Then Hurricane Irma hit.

The September storm pushed water onshore with such force that it penetrated the seams of Hancock’s building, defeating stormproof windows and damaging a third of the units. It knocked out the elevators, ruined the generator, and flooded the parking lot. Months later the park next door remains strewn with mangled yachts hurled from from the ocean.

Hancock’s unit was spared, but he’s facing a $60,000 bill from the condo association for his share of what insurance won’t cover. Now, four years after leaving Coral Gables, he and his wife want to move again-this time, out of Florida. But more than two months after listing their property, they haven’t found a buyer.

“It’s not the greatest time to be showing it,” Hancock said, noting the damage to the building. Still, Irma convinced him that it doesn’t make sense to wait. “At some point, we won’t be able to sell.”

Decisions by people such as Hancock to sell their homes demonstrate that one of the great mysteries of climate change isn’t scientific but psychological: When will the growing risks associated with rising seas and more severe storms begin to affect home values in otherwise desirable coastal markets?

Comment by SFMF
2017-12-31 10:00:32

These idiots sold their home to avoid gloBULL warming….BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA. Oh man, that’s precious.

“(CNN)Across the United States, temperature records are falling faster than this week’s snowflakes in Erie, Pennsylvania, and it’s only going to get worse. From Portland, Maine, to Danville, Virginia, temperatures fell overnight Friday to lows not seen in decades. It was a measly 8 degrees Fahrenheit in Worcester, Massachusetts, breaking a record that had stood since 1903.

Temperatures will also be unusually low as far south as Texas and Georgia. Mississippi and Alabama will see especially low temperatures, Norman said. Between Saturday night and Sunday morning, he said, there’s a “good chance” for a little ice accumulation in some Southern states.”

Comment by toby
2017-12-31 10:08:53

will not comment on “global warming” as I think sun spot activity would indicate otherwise but believe that the galveston area had THREE cat 4 or 5 hurricanes within a few years in the early 1900s……………near as I can tell its still there and thriving……….

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-31 12:34:47

“… the galveston area had THREE cat 4 or 5 hurricanes within a few years in the early 1900s…”

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2017-12-31 12:23:00

A guy moves out of Coral Gables to a high-end condo kissing Key Biscayne. That’s clever. Is he old enough to understand who picks up the tab for damage after a storm or who picks up the maintenance fees for three empty units.
Does any owner know the replacement POLICY for high-rise windows on Brickell? Where are the windows manufactured? Delivery times? MINIMUM deliveries? Yadayadayada.

Do YOU recognize Ross Hancock’s building? He’s telling you that if you have athlete’s foot you’re okay as long as your teeth are bright.

Comment by snake charmer
2018-01-01 11:09:03

And if Hancock doesn’t know those things, the wealthy foreigners buying Miami condo units as speculative investments, or as political or social hedges, almost certainly don’t know them either.

I’m curious, what did this guy think his future would look like, sitting in his condo atop “one of the highest coral ridges in the area” while rising sea levels cratered Coral Gables property values, not to mention re-drawing the map? That sounds kind of like the Waterworld movie. I’m calling BS on his explanation.

Comment by SFMF
2017-12-31 09:31:18

One piece of the tax bill that has received almost no attention (aside from the child tax credit doubling and tax rates reduction) is the 20% pass through. I was doing some Excel forecasts yesterday and I was very pleasantly surprised by how much this will save me. The basic is if you’re an s-corp, you take 20% off the top of income and that’s tax free. But given it’s the IRS, nothing is as simple as that. There are all sorts of scenarios where that 20% can be reduced. But even so, I’m looking for significant savings.

And since I live in a low tax state, above $10K SALT limit won’t affect me. I’m nowhere close to the limit right now. Neither will the $750K MID limit. In fact, for the first time in as long as I can remember, I’m taking the standard deduction which is now $24K. Most my deductions are bidness deductions. Only thing I deduct on a personal level is MID, Property tax and sales tax. That’s well under $24K, so now with the $24K deduction, I come out ahead. Plus I now get $2K credit per kid, before I was too “rich” to qualify. I knew one day they’d pay for themselves :)

If I wrote this tax bill personally I don’t think I could have done a better job for myself. The GOP f-00-ked the pooch big time with Obamacare. But they are truly to be commended on a job well done on taxes.

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2017-12-31 11:28:57

“The basic is if you’re an s-corp, you take 20% off the top of income and that’s tax free.” ——- SFMF

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-12-31 09:57:33

Castle Rock, CO Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-31 10:42:38

I predict the elderly will fall victim to ever more financial scams, including a major push to get them into Bitcoin just before the point of bubble collapse.

All that glitters: As elder abuse rates soar, some fell for phony jewel scam
After falling prey to con artist “Marshall Fields,” Judy Cunningham swallowed her pride and went to the authorities. “You feel so stupid,” she said.
Peter Rowe
Contact Reporter
Quick read
- Countywide, crimes against the elderly have increased 38 percent in five years. For violent crimes against the elderly, the situation is even more stark: a 67 percent increase between 2011 and 2016.
- Financial crimes are the most common. A dramatic example: the gemstone scam of Fairbanks Ranch’s William Phillips and Lisa Sidney.
- The couple have pled guilty to swindling about $2.5 million from elderly victims. The experience, one said, left her “emotionally and financially drained.”

Comment by rms
2017-12-31 11:03:30

Swindling the elderly is the purvey of psychopaths.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-31 11:33:39

Evidently we haven’t run out of psychopaths.

Comment by tresho
2017-12-31 12:30:57

Evidently we haven’t run out of psychopaths.
As old Chief Lodge Skins said in “Little Big Man” — “There is an endless supply of white men, but a limited supply of Human Beings.”

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-31 12:30:39

1. Dumb ‘em down.

2. Profit.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-31 12:41:04

“When Marshall Fields first called Judy Cunningham, she rejected his investment proposals and hung up.”

There. So much for that. Oh, wait!

“But he persisted, phoning the Rancho Santa Fe widow several times a week.”
“’Pretty soon he was like my best friend,’ said Cunningham, 73, who eventually paid Fields almost $250,000 for what he presented as valuable gems. ‘He kept calling and I kept sending him money’.”


1. Dumb ‘em down.

2. Profit.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-31 14:01:23

‘He kept calling and I kept sending him money’.

Sounds like a match made in heaven.

Which reminds me of one of the hardest things I did all year, which was to extricate my 88-year-old dad from the burden to collect the$100K+ in personal loans that he made to support a family friend’s non-profit organization. The guy would borrow from Dad with an agreement to repay after five years. When the term was up, instead of making good on the repayment agreement, the guy would persuade Dad to not only extend the loan period, but to loan still more. Those $5K-$20K personal loans can really add up over a period of years! Based on the request letter for repayment in full that I drafted last winter and had my parents sign, they were repaid all the money the guy borrowed as of this October.

Apparently Dad was not the only source of funds for this scheme, as a number of other octagenarians were also tapped for personal loans to support this Enterprise. Like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the guy did not produce financials, making it hard to know whether the loans could be repaid. My hunch is that the next recession will sink this serial borrower, as he’s 75, leveraged to the hilt with no clear idea of his financial position, and he is working beyond the point when most are retired. The viability of his operation depends not only on his continued health, but also on bubbly real estate investment values. After the next crash, he will be insolvent, and any number of his personal lenders will be left holding the bag.

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-31 10:54:47

I predict that awareness will continue to grow among the educated classes that recent asset price increases were driven by central bank market manipulations, such as interest rate suppression and other extended extraordinary accommodation measures, rather than economic fundamentals. This growing awareness of the “everything bubble” will be accompanied by increasing conjecture over for how long central banks will maintain the artificial supports necessary to sustain the bubble economy, speculation over whether the many bubbles currently headed skyward might eventually collapse of their own weight, and preparations for the race to the exits which is bound to ensue when the top heavy Ponzi-financed boom begins to crumble.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-31 10:59:16

Five economic signs that can tell us if the bubble will burst next year
As far as the world economy is concerned, there is almost universal optimism about 2018: another year of good growth. But there are two quite different views on markets
Hamish McRae
Sunday 10 December 2017 16:30 GMT

Comment by hackrenter
2017-12-31 11:33:51

This is one prediction I hope comes true, though I remain skeptical that people, academics or otherwise, will ever put 2 and 2 together when it comes to bubbles.

I have no predictions (they’d be wrong), but a continuing resolution to ignore the noise (Trump fascist, Obama socialist blah, blah, blah) and worry about the things I can control.

Hope everyone ends 2018 with better health, more wealth and greater happiness

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-31 14:16:40

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his paycheck depends on his not understanding it.

– Uptain Sinclair

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-31 11:42:27

Pool of negative yielding bonds tops $11tn in November
Eric Platt
December 8, 2017

More than $11tn of sovereign and corporate bonds traded with a yield below zero at the end of November, despite quickening global growth and a view among investors that central banks will begin to remove their extraordinary accommodation.

The value of debt with a subzero yield rose to $11.2tn from $10.9tn a month prior, and was the highest reading since August, according to data from Bloomberg compiled for the Financial Times.

The question gripping investors is how an unwind of central bank stimulus will affect the financial markets. The Federal Reserve is expected to lift interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point when it meets next week and further reduce the size of its balance sheet.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-31 14:59:03

So many folks who are patting themselves on the back for their investing acumen owe the global central banking cabal a deep debt of gratitude for sucking all of the oxygen out of the risk-free investment class for eight years running. With risk free assets under the bus, gambling-type investments like stocks, housing and buttcoin look a lot more attractive.

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2017-12-31 20:30:05


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Comment by scdave
2017-12-31 11:49:21

prediction for 2018 ??

Louder & Louder War drums…

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-31 12:13:58

At least transgenders can enlist again starting tomorrow.

I read on the Huffington Post that this is more important than Pearl Harbor or 9/11.

Comment by SFMF
2017-12-31 12:25:00

5 years ago 99.99% of the world lived their lives without ever hearing the word trans. Today, as you said, it’s more important than 9/11.

Comment by scdave
2017-12-31 12:36:36

can enlist again ??

More like “Can draft again”…

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-31 12:55:59

Sometimes I’m amazed anyone enlists. Because a tour of duty in the middle east sounds like so much fun.

Comment by scdave
2017-12-31 13:11:01

Sometimes I’m amazed anyone enlists ??

Desperate high school graduates encouraged by one or both of parents along with limited if any real opportunities for a working future…And when you come out, the opportunities may even be less that assumes your not so “fooked-up” that you can’t even hold a job…

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Comment by MacBeth
2017-12-31 13:31:53

Plenty of people who enlist are not “desperate”.

You really need to get out more.

Comment by Anonymous
2017-12-31 15:13:23

One big reason: Uncle Sam will then pay for you to go to college for 4 years. All of your school expenses, plus a housing allowance.

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-12-31 11:54:31

“California Housing Bubble Begins to Crack: Home Prices Fall State-wide”

Comment by oxide
2017-12-31 13:05:21

The government will threaten to shut down every 2-3 weeks for January and February, mostly over trying to strike a deal on DACA. It will consume the news until midnight on Feb 28. Homeland security will start cracking down on visa overstays.

Amazon will choose to locate its HQ in an already overcrowded city: Austin, San Diego, NoVa, possibly Atlanta. (I like the prediction for Amazon buying Sears for the buildings and parking lots.)

At least one smart Silly Valley company will start moving different divisions to different states. Instead of 50,000 employees in San Francisco, they will move 5000 people to 10 states each. It’s enough people to keep that critical mass of interaction, but it still takes advantage of cheap land and better commutes. It will also gain favor with 30+ members of Congress (the Lockheed Martin model).

Depending on the outcome of DACA, Trump will either focus on chain migration, or will shift his focus to H1Bs.

There will be at least 3 major political deaths in 2018. Republicans will keep the Senate but the House is a toss-up.

This will be the Republican’s final good election. Starting in 2020, the anchor babies will be old enough to vote, and they will vote for freebies every time.

The new tax law will throw a bone to the working man, but it will be temporary. Prices will just rise to suck up that extra refund money.

Housing in Canada will finally tank. Not only will those houses drop in value, they will find out that they are moneypits requiring $50-$70K of repair each. Flipper TV shows in Canada will quietly be discontinued.

HGTV has started flipper shows in smaller cities (Nashville). They will cancel those small-city shows when it finally sinks in that putting $50K into a $170K house and making $20-30K profit is not going to draw any ratings. Meanwhile, Tarek and Christina will be replaced by another couple, still in California, because $60K profits WILL draw ratings.

I second the prediction that Chelsea will get into politics, and that Hillary will campaign for her. Because speaking to Teen Vogue just doesn’t bring in the dough.

The Wrinkle in Time movie won’t bomb in the US, but it will make less than $150M total domestically. It will likely bomb overseas especially China. It will barely make back its cost. The semi-flop will be based on racism.

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-31 15:54:05

Here’s a DACA solution: sentence the parents who brought you here illegally to 20 year felony prison sentences for human trafficking, and the DACA “kids” (if you consider 20-30-somethings kids) can stay.

I read on Salon dot com that every DACA “kid” is a Harvard Medical School graduate. Every. Single. One. Of. Them.


Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-12-31 13:24:44

Silverton, OR Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As Speculators Flood Market

Comment by azdude
2017-12-31 13:28:04

I predict the sheeple will continue to be fleeced by the wall street credit/ debt machine.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-31 16:57:12

Bet on it!

Comment by Anonymous
2017-12-31 15:23:52

I predict next year I’ll again make hundreds of dollars from my credit cards! Without paying any fees or interest. Thanks again, Mr. Banker! :D

Oh, and I predict I’ll keep checking in here at HBB. For information and, to a lesser extent, entertainment. :)

Beyond that, I have no idea WTH will happen!

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-31 16:56:05

“I predict next year I’ll again make hundreds of dollars from my credit cards! Without paying any fees or interest. Thanks again, Mr. Banker! ”

Bastard! I’ll get you yet!

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-31 21:35:09

You may have to wait until he gets sick or loses his job before you have a chance to collect your pound of flesh. Once folks lose the ability to repay money they have borrowed is the perfect time to put the screws on them.

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-31 16:17:18

Twitter, Google, YouTube (owned by Google), Facebook, Reddit, and any social media platforms popular in the United States will continue, will double down, on the censorship, the banning (and shadowbanning, hello Reddit) of users who commit the #ThoughtCrime of #BadThink.

George Soros, the Southern Poverty Law Center, and Antifa (they’re all the same thing, really) will continue to fund, to defame, and to fight, respectively, any voice that speaks in favor of national sovereignty, whether in the U.S. or abroad.

Maybe it’s time to start a new Crusades against globalists.

Ben Jones thanks again. 2018 is gonna rawk 8)

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-31 17:40:56

Donald Trump campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, December 2015:

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-31 17:56:53
Comment by JQ
2017-12-31 18:03:21

1. The end of Net Neutrality will be very evident in Tech earnings.

2. California will enter recession.

3. Blockchain internet will gather momentum.

4. I’ll continue to enjoy this blog!

Comment by azdude
2017-12-31 18:22:23

i predict the FED will have to keep buying bonds and suppressing interest rates so they dont go bankrupt.

Comment by palmetto
2017-12-31 19:24:15

Do NOT buy the Irish Cream at Aldi’s. Stick to Bailey’s. Always.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-31 22:16:19

I have found Emmett’s to be just as good as Bailey’s, which is not surprising as both are made by the same firm. Other brands, like Carolans or St. Brendans, I find to be harsher (cheaper whiskey)

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-01 07:53:35

I don’t drink much, maybe about three times a year. I made a mistake yesterday getting the Irish cream instead of the champagne. Having had good experience with most of the food I’ve purchased at Aldi’s, I decided to give their brand (O’Donnells) a try. Harsh is right! Wowie!

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-01 12:08:05

I shopped for my parents at Aldi’s a couple of days ago. All told, I was impressed with the price/quality margin they offer on their groceries. However, I did not enjoy the feeling of being herded through the store by virtue of their layout, which seems designed to force customers to hastily snake their way past all of the displays in a forced march to the checkout counter.

Out of spite, I made a concerted effort to walk backwards against the intended traffic flow.

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Comment by sod
2017-12-31 20:10:09

I wish landlords who charge exorbitant rents nothing but pain and sorrow in 2018.

Comment by MacBeth
2017-12-31 21:20:31


There are a good many landlords out there that are as unscrupulous as any realtor. And that’s saying something.

It’s not is just Realtors who are Liars. Not by a long shot. Throw in landlords, lawyers, Fannie/Freddie, inspectors, builders, hedge funds, bankers.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-12-31 21:44:17

I wish landlords who charge exorbitant rents nothing but pain and sorrow in 2018.

Me, too. That type spreads a lot of misery around.

I continue to protest my 14% rent increase. Not happy that it’s only a one year extension. No response to my phone calls looking to negotiate. I sent the regular rent. No $200 for you, not until I get a better reason than “everybody else has raised them.”

In Nevada landlords rule, renters are SOL (too irritated to rhyme), but I have nothing to lose…

Comment by palmetto
2017-12-31 22:09:20

My former LL hasn’t sold the place yet.

As stressful as the whole experience was, it turned out OK. I missed the old place for about two weeks, but it turns out I like it here much better and have no desire to move back to the Tampa Bay area. Looking to find a deal and buy something within the year. Glad to have landed in an area I’m comfortable with.

We got the razzmatazz on the way out how everyone else was charging the “going rate” and we had a good deal. I liked the LL for most of the time I was there, but at the end it was really brutal on account of the LL’s high anxiety about selling the place.

Comment by jeff
2018-01-01 08:06:44

“Glad to have landed in an area I’m comfortable with.”


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Comment by palmetto
2018-01-01 08:46:35

Ocala/Gainesville area. Considering settling in the High Springs area. Either that or the edge of the National Forest.

Comment by jeff
2018-01-01 09:10:21

“Ocala/Gainesville area.”

I have been in both areas several years apart for about a week each while coaching youth sports teams. Can’t remember anything bad about either. The only thing that even remotely cones to mind is sinkholes which are pretty few and far between which IIRC comes from being built on limestone.

I don’t know about Tampa but West Palm (Jupiter/Tequesta) is starting to have a striking resemblance to what we moved away from, without the single digit New Years Eve parties of course.

You might just be on to something.

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-01 09:18:52

You won’t believe what’s going on up here, jeff. The southern Ocala area is wall to wall 55+ on the two corridors north of the Sumter County line, 441 on the east, 200 on the west. In between is a very strange area that is a combination of ‘hood and upper scale stuff. It’s all divided by I-75 and extends up to the city of Ocala. North of that it gets a little calmer, until you hit Gainesville.

I had no idea about all the retirees up here. I knew about the Villages, of course, but there’s something like 25 retirement developments north of the Villages, I guess they built them for people who didn’t want to live in the big V, or couldn’t afford it. It’s probably one of the few areas left in Florida where older folks with modest incomes can find a decent place to live and die.

Rumor has it the developer of The Villages has purchased some ungodly amount of acreage in Sumter to extend the Villages southward.

Marion County is very conservative. Alachua County is liberal on account of the University.

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-01 10:32:36

This area doesn’t seem to be a big hit with illegal immigrants, for some reason. Believe it or not, if you hire someone to do landscaping or yard work, you can pretty much count on them being American citizens, even at the crew level. Same with the construction crews.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not all sunshine and lollipops here.
There’s certainly some problems here with crime and such. A lot of domestic violence and drugs, but this tends to cluster in certain areas. And also homelessness.

And I heard the death rattle for the first time in my life when some old lady keeled over at a service counter. She looked like a nicely dressed older retiree, out doing her errands and I guess it was just her time.

Comment by rms
2018-01-01 10:55:09

“Ocala/Gainesville area.”

Try this search: “arthur jones nautilus jumbolair”

There’s a huge runway north of Ocala that Arthur had built for a 747 back in the day for an elephant compound. Hawt young wife inherited the place when he passed away. It’s now a fly-in compound for the rich.

Comment by jeff
2018-01-01 11:14:30

I also knew about the Villages but wow, I had no idea Ocala was a hot spot for the 55+ crowd.

From what it sounds like if you took your time you could probably find a decent place in a decent area to hang out in for the next 20 years or so.

It would be nice if you could find it, have the prices drop and have it all line up for a clean shot. God knows you along with others on this blog deserve it.

I hope 2018 is the year for all of you.

Comment by snake charmer
2018-01-01 11:24:45

I just drove some of that area this month, taking the “scenic route” through Lake County on 44 and 441 back from Daytona because I could not tolerate another ordeal on I-4. I passed one of The Villages’ entrances, and saw what appeared to be another gigantic community under construction adjacent to it.

There are some nice natural springs around Ocala, they’ve got a microclimate in the summer that’s a little cooler.

Comment by aNYCdj
2018-01-01 11:02:50

I always tell them you want top dollar rent then i want top dollar service……Fair enough

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2017-12-31 21:05:44

And then there’s global warming that the media labelled global WARMING and that the scientists in the early 1970’s labelled global CHANGE.

So four people deliver a series of lectures and publish a book predicting changes by 2080.
They had a 40 year reunion at MIT in 2014 and said they were wrong. The year 2080 was being overly optimistic. Make it 2040 for salt water intrusion into South Florida’s aquifers. Really? WTF do they know? Afterall, they said, in 1974, that the Gulf Stream, which produces friction and thus heat, would slow down and give us colder Winters in the North and hotter Summers decades later. Really, WTF do they know. They collect data and Donald makes money.
Now, who’s more important and cares about your welfare?

Comment by jeff
2018-01-01 09:22:07

“And then there’s global warming that the media labelled global WARMING”

NASA Study Finds Indian, Pacific Oceans Temporarily Hide Global Warming

July 9, 2015
RELEASE 15-147

A new NASA study of ocean temperature measurements shows in recent years extra heat from greenhouse gases has been trapped in the waters of the Pacific and Indian oceans. Researchers say this shifting pattern of ocean heat accounts for the slowdown in the global surface temperature trend observed during the past decade.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-31 22:23:48

I predict:

Wage growth to remain low
Health insurance premiums will continue to rise at double digit rates.
College tuition will rise faster than inflation
Car sales will erode, but not crash (yet)
More housing markets will peak and more will start showing price erosion.
The MSM will continue the hate campaign against Trump
More leftist water carriers will get thrown under the #metoo bus
Local taxes (sales, income, property taxes) will go up in most states
Colorado will remain the only state with TABOR.

Comment by rms
2018-01-01 11:04:42

Car sales will erode, but not crash (yet)

Watched television with my wife last night, and the automobile commercials all had zero or near zero interest rates for qualified buyers, or nearly $10k in rebates. Gotta wonder what their inventory numbers look like?

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-01 11:58:14

I predict that the exodus of middle class families out of California will continue up to and beyond the onset of the next recession, first due to the parabolic price blowout phase of the bubble, followed by job loss and underwater mortgages after the onset of recession.

And I note that a record number of Christmas cards we received this year were from former Californians who used to live in our community now living somewhere else.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-01 14:42:24

Cars prices are through the roof. Comparable model replacements for the cars we bought in 2013 would be about 40-50% more than what we paid. Sure, the replacements have gadgets that ours don’t and have replaced V6 engines and 6 speed automatics with Turbo charged engines and 8 speed automatics, but still, the price bumps are very noticeable.

Comment by rms
2018-01-01 15:07:19

“Cars prices are through the roof.”

+1 A worn-out pickup truck goes for $10k today, and one “as-is” with 60k miles is roughly $18k. It’s not cheap having to carry insurance on a vehicle especially a truck. Anything mechanical happens and it’s $85/hr for labor alone.

Without the to absorb their bad loans these firms would go the way of Sears, Roebuck and Company.

Comment by snake charmer
2018-01-01 12:07:47

I whiffed on my short-term predictions last year. I thought we’d see the start of a reversion to the mean for all asset prices, and that didn’t happen at all, although from what Ben has posted, it appears to be underway in Canada, Australia, and the UK. I thought that the deep state and other forces of the status quo would be so unhinged by Trump that they’d prick the bubbles as a pretext for re-assuming political control. That didn’t happen either, although I stand by my prediction that Trump has a 50-50 chance of finishing his term. I didn’t predict a new crypto-currency bubble, and I didn’t predict the social changes currently underway.

My prediction for 2018 is that the degree of competing vapid political posturing, propaganda and messaging will become almost overwhelming — I actually think it’s overwhelming now — emanating from every screen all the time, and deliberately designed to stoke anxiety and fear. Social alienation will become more pronounced, and we’ll have a new overdose fatality record, and another “deadliest mass shooting in American history,” and many other people, especially young people, will be too absorbed in their smart phones to care about these things for more than a moment. We’ll move closer to more war, with more powerful opponents, which for some reason our elites want badly. And if such a war happens, my prediction is that we will lose, or that our lives will be changed permanently.

Unfortunately, I think we will make a serious run at Dow 36,000. This will become a self-fulfilling prophecy as commentators and pundits start to talk about Dow 36,000. I don’t believe such a value is even remotely supported by fundamentals or by the future world we will inhabit, but since when did those things matter to anybody?

I hold the doom viewpoint, that’s not a secret. Not that humanity is doomed, but that our present way of life is. And the longer it takes for reality to assert itself, in all areas of our culture, the more catastrophic the assertion will be.

Comment by jeff
2018-01-02 13:59:45

Instead of New Year’s resolutions this year I am just going to make a list of 10 things I really don’t care to do.

I think it will be a lot more productive and release a lot more endorphins than setting myself up to fail.

#1 I don’t care to…

Climb Mount Everest

If I ever start to waver I will just glance over…

List of people who died climbing Mount Everest

From Wikipedia

#2 I don’t care to…

Run in and finish the New York Marathon

If I get the itch to buy some jogging shoes I will just skim over the story of the dude credited with running the first marathon.

History tells us that Pheidippides ran to Athens with the news of the great victory his people had over the Persians at Marathon. It was 490 BC, and the distance he ran was about 26 miles (or, around 40 kilometers).

After he delivered his message - “Nenikikamen” (which means, “Rejoice we conquer” or, put differently, “We have won”) - Pheidippides died.

Comment by snake charmer
2018-01-02 16:44:14

While I have no desire to climb Mt. Everest, I have run, and finished the NYC Marathon.

My don’t-care-to-do-it bucket list would be topped by not spending more than twenty minutes per day on social media, and by not watching any network news program, ever.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-02 16:56:13

Kudos on NYC marathon qualify and finish. I’m not a climber, so I’ll pass on Everest. But I’m Boston-bound and excited to run that one.

Comment by jeff
2018-01-03 08:57:20

Congrats to you both on your marathons.

But I forgot to tell you guys Jim Fixx used to jog past us when we were drinking beer and paving the way for Colorado’s new law at Todd’s Point skipping school in the late 70s.


Published: July 22, 1984

James F. Fixx, who spurred the jogging craze with his best-selling books about running and preached the gospel that active people live longer, died of a heart attack Friday while on a solitary jog in Vermont. He was 52 years old.

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Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-03 12:44:29

I like to run. I don’t do it for the health benefits. It’s more about the personal enjoyment of clearing my head and just seeing country. Running, while definitely healthy on net, is not a panacea when it comes to health.

“In recent decades, most of the discussion about running and cardiac risk has focused on sudden deaths at marathons and other endurance events—highly public, man-bites-dog events that inevitably make it into the newspapers. In 1977, a cardiologist and 2:28 marathoner named Paul Thompson, M.D., was running Bay to Breakers 12K when one such death occurred. The tragedy sparked a lifelong and career-defining interest for Thompson, who is now the co-physician-in-chief of the Hartford Health-Care Heart and Vascular Institute and perhaps the world’s leading authority on the cardiac consequences of running. In 1979, Thompson published a report on 18 men and women who died during or immediately after running, 13 of whom had heart disease. “Superior physical fitness does not guarantee protection against exercise deaths,” he and his coauthors warned.”

Comment by tresho
2018-01-03 16:04:04

It’s more about the personal enjoyment of clearing my head and just seeing country.
So why not just walk? Easier on your body, fer sure.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-03 19:49:18

I do both. For what it is worth, moderate to vigorous physical activity is very good for your body. The best science of exercise is showing that intensity is actually kind of the key for a whole host of outcomes, but every exercise session shouldn’t be intense. For me, I try to have 1 or 2 hard runs a week. The rest are relaxing runs. Because I run so much, my job probably feels like a walk to others because it’s pretty low intensity and leisurely. I mix it up though.

Moderate to intense exercise improves insulin sensitivity, lowers blood pressure, improves blood lipid profile, increases cardiac output, helps maintain a healthy body weight, lowers stress, improves sleep quality, improves lung function, etc. You can get a lot of the benefits of exercise by walking, but there does need to be some level of moderate to high intensity to get all of them.

Running marathons is not necessary to get the benefit of running. The medical benefit of running are capped at about 3-4 hours per week, or about 40 minutes per day from the best meta analyses that I’ve read.

Comment by snake charmer
2018-01-03 09:47:42

Good luck!

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Comment by aNYCdj
2018-01-02 23:18:31

What Year??? we lived in the building on 61st and 1 st ave above Rodney Dangerfiled’s club you ran right past it.

Comment by snake charmer
2018-01-03 09:41:07

2002. I trained the entire time amidst brutal heat and humidity here in Florida, and I arrived in NYC to snow flurries.

The city does a fantastic job with the event, and people in Brooklyn and Manhattan were very enthusiastic spectators. You would have thought I was winning the race, instead of being in 20,000th place.

For those thinking about doing this, the Queensboro bridge, at mile 15, sucks almost indescribably. My year, I read afterwards that one of the previous winners reached the apex of the bridge and threw up. I know the feeling. But you are rewarded when you come off the bridge and run up 1st Avenue, which might be the most famous stretch in marathon running with the exception of Heartbreak Hill in Boston.

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Comment by jeff
2018-01-02 21:35:46

#3 I don’t care to…

Run with the bulls

Spain’s running of the bulls: the good, the bad and the ugly

How dangerous is the event?

Dozens of people are injured each year, most often trampled by the bulls. Last year, 12 people, including four Americans, were gored during the bull runs.

Since record-keeping began in 1924, 15 people have died after being gored at the festival.

Comment by jeff
2018-01-03 08:47:29

#3 I don’t care to…

have my tongue, nose or any other part of my body pierced.

I am knocking these out faster than most people have made it to their first and only trip to the gym they joined that they will be paying for all year.

Comment by snake charmer
2018-01-03 09:44:40

Heh. When I was younger I gave serious thought to doing that. Then I watched a video, and decided against it!

I have been to Spain and seen the size of the fighting bulls. They’re freaking huge.

Comment by jeff
2018-01-03 10:27:29

#5 I don’t care to…

Go back to school and finish college.

If I did that I might feel obligated to taking a job that pays a lot more thus leaving a gaping hole in the bottom of the middle class that I fear may never be filled.

(this is starting to get tough any help would be appreciated)

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