March 12, 2017

Buyers Can’t Settle And Wish They Could Walk Away

A report from Better Dwelling in Canada. “The world’s greatest overseas real estate binge might finally be over. According to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), China saw its foreign exchange reserves rise to over US$3 trillion. The unexpected rise is the first in 8 months, and may indicate that the new regulatory crackdown on capital outflows is actually working. This is bad for real estate markets that have seen a sudden surge of buying activity from Mainland Chinese buyers. Companies now require government approval to purchase property abroad, and they can’t easily obtain it unless buying property has always been their primary business. Break the rules, you get a three year ban on exporting capital, and are investigated for money laundering.”

“Mainland Chinese investors are now the world’s largest buyers of overseas real estate. These buyers added fuel to the fire created by over enthusiastic domestic buyers with massive mortgages, sending property rates soaring in Canada, Australia, England, France, Hong Kong…actually, pretty much everywhere. Many markets saw locals taking out record amounts of debt to compete with well funded foreign investors. It’ll be interesting to see if the narrative continues to be told that Chinese buyers are driving markets, or if locals will realize they’re now providing liquidity for those same well-funded investors that need to get out.”

From The Australian. “Almost 80 per cent of Chinese buyers can’t settle on the Australian apartments they have bought off the plan and wish they could walk away from the contracts, ­according to an expert on investment in Australian property. Li Ming, the co-director of real estate company Aussiehome, told The Australian that ‘the off-the-plan apartments market is now the worst I have seen in the last 10 years.’”

“Dr Li said: ‘One Chinese client recently sold an apartment at Melbourne’s Docklands for $1.4 million which he had bought for $1.8m two years ago.’ A major trigger, he said, was the tightening by Chinese financial institutions of property lending for overseas purchases.”

From Reuters on Malaysia. “Chinese property developer Country Garden Holdings Co Ltd has shut some mainland sales centers promoting its $40 billion Forest City project in Malaysia, in response to Beijing’s moves to stop capital flight into offshore investments. China’s tighter grip on funds moving out of the country after the yuan plummeted to more than eight-year lows has hurt the overseas sales of Chinese developers, and created extra challenges for firms or deals reliant on mainland investment.”

“Other developers have flagged similar problems with overseas sales. ‘(Chinese) customers can’t take their money out now, of course there’s an impact on our overseas sales,’ said an executive of state-backed Greenland Holdings, which has developments in Malaysia, the U.S. and U.K.”

From The Star Online on China. “In 2016, Hefei, a manufacturing hub of about 8 million people in China’s east, was one of the world’s hottest property markets and a prime target for price curbs designed to knock speculative heat out the sector. Analysts say restrictions introduced last year and subsequent rhetoric from policymakers should have sent a very clear signal to investors that authorities would tighten further in Hefei and elsewhere.”

“Instead, speculators in Anhui’s provincial capital are betting just the opposite - that the government will ease curbs to support growth. Investors like Zhou Xiansheng say they are in no rush to sell their holdings. ‘Prices have only gone up in the past… The government will not let the market correct as long as property is still the pillar of economic growth,’ said Zhou, a businessman who owns multiple homes in Hefei.”

“Analysts say such views, based on observations of past cycles, are a major miscalculation of government intent and that future curbs will be harsher than previous measures, bad news for highly-leveraged investors. Nowhere else in China are speculative forces more apparent than they are in Hefei. Last year, new home prices rose 48.4 percent, the fastest rise in the world, according to a report by China’s Hurun Research Institute and real estate agency Global House Buyer.”

“China’s ’seesaw’ approach over past three major cycles of property tightening - capping price growth when a boom becomes too concerning and releasing the brake quickly to prevent a market collapse - has cemented the bullish mentality of investors seeking to reap big profits over a short period of time. ‘I’d buy another one if I could,’ said Duan, a Hefei local who just bought a house in the city and who only gave his family name.”

“Elly Chen, a Hong-Kong based property analyst at Nomura, notes in past cycles, the government only began to relax curbs once prices started falling. ‘The government is definitely willing to let prices fall,’ said Chen.”




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103 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-12 10:45:24

Here’s an alternative report on the Malaysia situation:

‘Property developer Country Garden Holdings has closed all its mainland China showrooms promoting its Forest City mega-development in Johor, as it looks to update its sales strategy and adapt to Beijing’s clampdown on capital outflows.’

‘The temporary closures come after the Chinese developer behind the US$100 billion (S$142 billion) project in the Iskandar special economic zone sold thousands of apartments, with Chinese nationals accounting for 70 per cent of buyers.’

‘When The Straits Times tried to contact Forest City’s sales offices yesterday, phone lines for its Beijing and Shanghai offices had been terminated.’

‘Property analyst Loong Chee Wei said the showroom closures came as a surprise, and that talk is that other Chinese developers in Johor, such as Greenland Group and Guangzhou R&F Properties, have slowed down development of their projects.’

“Given the concerns of oversupply of high-rise residential units in Johor, it will be difficult to attract buyers from Malaysia and Singapore, who are the main buyers in Johor,” Mr Loong said.’

Comment by acutehemroid
2017-03-12 15:23:12

What they are really saying: Turn off the money, and we have no buyers worth the name.

Did Chinese buyers really juice those real estate markets as much as they appear?

Regards,
Roidy

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-12 10:46:35

Here’s a photo from the Better Dwellings article:

Example

Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-12 10:55:50

“No income verification”

Given that that they’re students, wouldn’t “no income” be a given?

35% down does seem to require they have some skin in the game. If they walk away that’s a hefty loss for them. What happens when they graduate and if they can’t stay in Canaduh? Is it just assumed that the property will have appreciated and they’ll be able to sell it for a profit? Or is it assumed that it will be added to the growing inventory of foreign owned and unoccupied Vancouver housing?

Does Canada have an equivalent of the 3% down FHA loan?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-12 11:02:30

What happens if the Chinese Yuan crashes along with China’s stupendous credit and debt bubble, and suddenly the students and their parents can no longer afford to pay the mortgage?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-12 11:18:49

Keep watching the Chinese offshore Yuan, which is a better indicator of China’s fiscal health than the official (manipulated) Yuan price. It it goes over 7, it’s going to get a lot harder for Chinese to pay their dollar-denominated debts or keep snapping up real estate in Australia, the US, Canada, etc.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Currency/USDCNH?countrycode=US

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-12 11:05:29

A surprising number of multi-million peso houses in Vancouver have been bought by students.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-03-12 11:18:31

“…. bought by students.”

No doubt the same people who were in the top in their class in high school - the smartest ones in the room.

Now the REAL education begins …

Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha …

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Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-13 13:20:43

gotta love it! End the Chinese cheating!

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-13 14:22:59

Still butt hurt I see. How many of your comments am I deleting every day? 10 or 20? Not the best use of your time nor mine.

 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-13 15:28:21

:mrgreen:

 
Comment by redmondjp
2017-03-13 23:52:59

Why are you laughing, Housing Analyst?

 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-14 04:39:23

Falling housing prices my good friend. Falling prices.

“Collier County, FL Home Sales Up, Prices Down”

http://www.naplesnews.com/story/money/real-estate/2017/02/17/collier-home-sales-up-prices-down-start-2017/98063188/

 
 
 
 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-12 13:13:58

“Here’s a photo from the Better Dwellings article:”

That’s what the media is calling a “cash buyer” in the US.

 
Comment by Lurker
2017-03-12 14:24:18

Is there a minimum student age? That whiteboard with the dinosaur drawing and rainbow-colored letters looks like it’s aimed at kindergarteners. And I’m pretty sure we’ve had some articles on here about Chinese parents “buying” future homes for their 5-year olds.

Comment by Vinceinwaukesha
2017-03-12 14:50:19

That “dinosaur” is a fairly good reproduction of Pokemon named Charmander. First aired in ‘98 so figure its aimed at someone born in 1990 and would be in upper 20s today at absolute maximum. Lets call it “mid 20s grad student-ish” age.

That’s actually fairly well targeted marketing if they’re aiming at international students. The wisdom of loaning money no income verification to foreign students is … um… probably not as wise as the marketing plan.

Comment by SumTingWong
2017-03-12 16:41:02

Damn that picture is priceless. Guess Chinese couldnt/didnt read history, particularly regarding their neighbor Japan’s world wide real estate binge ~25 years ago. They’re too busy taking stupid to a new level, and its not only going to result in a lot “losing face”, theyre going to get them ripped off.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-12 17:07:09

From Bisnow on New York. “New York City is still the No. 1 destination for foreign capital in the world, according to this year’s AFIRE rankings, but it is no longer an environment in which foreign money — particularly from China — will buy anything in the market at any price. This year, China has clamped down on outbound foreign investment, and firms caught flouting the new laws will be punished harshly, China First Capital CEO Peter Fuhrman said. While most New Yorkers in commercial real estate are aware of the capital slowdown, Fuhrman said they are probably not taking it seriously enough.”

“‘I have the perception that the full weight and severity of these capital controls hadn’t been fully felt here,’ Fuhrman said. ‘It’d be fair to say that the Chinese central government dropped a financial bomb on its businesses.’”

“One of the Chinese government’s chief concerns when instituting the investment restrictions, Fuhrman said, is over outbound investors getting fleeced while paying record-breaking prices. ‘A concern of Chinese regulators is their investors have been really bad buyers,’ Fuhrman said. ‘This can sadly be seen more and more in the larger real estate deals they have done. What they are extremely concerned about is just about every acquisition the Chinese have made, is they have overpaid severely and foolishly, and that has spurred a loss of a lot of Chinese sovereign wealth.’”

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9989

“The mansion on Fallen Leaf Road in the secluded Upper Rancho neighborhood of Arcadia has all the trappings a wealthy buyer from China could want. Yet two months after it was placed on the market, the house remains unsold. Not long ago, real estate like this would have been snapped up almost immediately. ‘It would have been gone in two weeks with multiple offers,’ said Dee Chou, the property’s listing agent.”

“Median home prices have dropped in Arcadia to $930,000 at the end of last year from about $1.1 million at the start of 2015. In San Marino, the median price for a home was $2.5 million as recently as the second quarter of last year before tapering to $2.2 million by the fourth quarter. Agents say the city is left with a surplus of luxury properties whose sellers could face pressure to reduce prices. One agent said her client had to drop his asking price for a property in Arcadia last summer to $8.3 million from $10 million because it drew no interest for three months. ‘All agents are crying that the money isn’t coming,’ said Sanne Lee, an agent for A + Realty & Mortgage in Rowland Heights.”

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10006

 
 
Comment by oxide
2017-03-13 05:53:51

Hi Vince! Long time no see! How you doin’?

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Comment by Apartment 401
2017-03-13 07:56:41

Hey Donk.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2017-03-13 08:40:49

aimed at someone born in 1990 and would be in upper 20s today

Actually, the snowflake who made the sign was probably in his upper 20s, which means he was thinking of *himself* when he was marketing. Oh, and on a side note, that dinosaur looks a lot like early 1990s Barney, which also targets someone born in 1990. So for all we know, our snowflake sign-maker could have drawn this up with Barney the dino in mind, only to attract international students with Charmander the dino in mind. I guess you can’t go wrong with dinosaurs.

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Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-13 09:01:10

DebtDonkeys And Dinosaurs…. Whoodathunk?

 
Comment by Lurker
2017-03-13 12:09:42

Or aimed at parents who remember Barney, or just think it’s a cute cartoon inspiring them to buy their 5-year-old an apartment.

This “long-term plan” implies the children are nowhere near college age yet:

“Since the latest tenants moved out months ago, she hasn’t been able to find a renter for the Beijing couple who own the 40th-floor condominium with a Central Park view—even at a steep discount. Now, she can’t find a renter willing to pay $10,000 a month.”

‘The market has changed completely,’ Ms. Shang said. ‘I never expected three years later that even with a Central Park View, that it would be so hard to rent out now.’”

“Ms. Shang’s customers bought their apartment at One57 three years ago with a long-term plan to have their children use it when they go to college. Until then, they want to rent it out. The purchase price was $3.95 million, property records show. ‘They are unhappy,’ Ms. Shang said. ‘They have to pay the monthly common charges, they have taxes and expenses. They want to get their money back as much as they can.’”

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9882

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-03-13 13:01:36

Well at least we know market forces matter and they can’t really afford to just leave it empty. Hopefully they’ll help set a new benchmark price soon.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-13 05:59:38

Who knew Barney the Dinosaur was a mortgage broker?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-13 06:43:25

I love you,
You love me,
We are a happy family,
With a great big hug and a kiss from me to you,
Won’t you say you love me too?

 
Comment by Wittbelle
2017-03-16 03:18:13

Cute Charmander.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-12 10:48:49

Almost 80 per cent of Chinese buyers can’t settle on the Australian apartments they have bought off the plan and wish they could walk away from the contracts

Oh, they can walk away just fine. But they will lose their deposits.

Interesting how real estate terms vary across the English speaking world. In the US you “close” on a purchase. In Oz you “settle”.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-12 11:06:18

Once China embarks on its own “Greater East Asia Co-Posperity Sphere,” they’ll be taking Australian real estate on their own terms.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwABuCZYFVA

 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-03-12 10:57:24

“Mainland Chinese investors are now the world’s largest buyers of overseas real estate.”

Were - WERE the world’s largest buyers of overseas real estate.

So, what does that mean? What does it mean when you replace the word “are” with the word “were”?

Read on to find out …

“These buyers added fuel to the fire created by over enthusiastic domestic buyers with massive mortgages, sending property rates soaring in Canada, Australia, England, France, Hong Kong…actually, pretty much everywhere. Many markets saw locals taking out record amounts of debt to compete with well funded foreign investors. It’ll be interesting to see if the narrative continues to be told that Chinese buyers are driving markets, or if locals will realize they’re now providing liquidity for those same well-funded investors that need to get out.”

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-03-12 11:14:29

I find it amusing (and hopefully extremely profitable) to learn that a market that has its demand driven by price rises instead of the old fashion idea of price declines such as taught in Econ101 (think department store sales) will have to learn to stand on its own with out the money-driven price rise coming from sh1tloads of money coming in from overseas.

The soon-to-be-underwater mortgage holders will demand to be saved.

I’m all for it, this saving of mortgage holders, because a peek into just who it is that has to be saved, that will be saved, will reveal that they are the LENDERS, the LENDERS are the ones that need to be saved and DESERVE to be saved.

Bahahahahahaha … the borrowers will toss-and-turn at night and cry to be saved and the lenders will be the ones who will eventually benefit.

Same as the last go around.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-12 11:12:12

Chinese developers are expanding their overseas operations, to include constructing luxury apartments (is there any other kind?) in Brisbane, Australia. Wonder if they used Aussie construction workers, or imported far cheaper labor from China?

http://www.scmp.com/business/article/2077878/rf-properties-sees-profit-rise-5pc-eyes-more-overseas-projects

Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-12 12:24:24

More likely they were Vietnamese workers.

 
 
Comment by azdude
2017-03-12 11:27:05

If you would have simply held your cash over the past 8 years, like some bozo here keeps recommending, you would have left a lot of cash on the table not be invested in assets.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-03-12 11:50:39

Azdude - those remarks are highly inflammatory. You owe Bozo an apology.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-12 14:50:56

Nobody could have foreseen the incredible recklessness and irresponsibility of the “former” Goldmanites at the Fed and other central banks in creating the most insane speculative bubbles in human history with countless trillions in created-out-of-thin-air “stimulus” lavished on their financier cohorts. I certainly didn’t.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-12 22:35:06

It was actually pretty easy to foresee the first part of the recovery in asset prices. It was the last 30-40% move that was harder to foresee.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-13 06:49:14

Are you taking into consideration the Fed’s asset price reflation program (QE1, QE2 and QE3), some of which was specifically targeted at housing price reflation?

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Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-13 08:58:31

There is sparse demand fromleveraged buyers of assets when those assets are falling in price. The Fed was pushing on a string–the bottom was only reached when cash buyers entered the market.

I was simply looking at the Shiller long-term price data. It is clear that we were at a trough…and if the history of the last three housing cycles was any guide, prices would go back up.

 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-13 09:29:47

Does this look like reversion to the mean to anyone here but you my good friend?

http://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/sp-case-shiller-3.jpg

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-13 10:00:43

That’s interesting. When I first started looking at this many markets took off around 97-99. And look at the steep rise at the end of the 80’s, after the GSE’s doubled their market share.

Oh, but my shack has gone up so much in 5 years I could buy a house! No bubble there.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-13 16:15:02

R Bannon…that chart looks a lot different if you actually adjust it for inflation.

The troughs of the past three housing busts are all within about 10% of one another on an inflation-adjusted basis.

 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-13 17:00:38

Wages today are what they were 20 years ago. There is no inflation.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-13 06:47:48

It may all turn out great for the Fed if somehow, by hook or by crook, they can lock all asset prices into a much base price level than, say, around 1996. Once the volatility dust settles, don’t be surprised if the average price of a house in the U.S. implies a far higher rate of inflation from 1996 through 2026 than official inflation numbers imply.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-13 07:16:05

‘much higher base level’

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Comment by oxide
2017-03-13 09:13:40

For perspective, even with a conservative estimate, I have enough equity in my house now that I could sell today and use the equity — even after realtor fees and taxes — to buy an Oil City house outright, for example Blue’s House in New York State. I definitely would NOT have been able to do that if I had continued to rent in the townhouse.

Granted, if I had added up my down payment, needed repair costs, and saved a little money in a 1-bed flat, I might be in a similar position. In other words, for my situation, it looks like the rent vs. buy contest is a tie, for the moment. But that’s after only 5 years in the house.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-13 09:15:48

‘after only 5 years in the house’

Quite the windfall, and to be paid for by another families debt. It works until it doesn’t.

Comment by oxide
2017-03-13 11:32:03

Not really, Ben. Most of that equity is money I paid in. The estimate I used assumes a 3% increase, which is normal. If it’s now a sin to buy low, pay off, and sell high, then we’re all in trouble.

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Comment by absolutebeginner
2017-03-12 13:07:47
Comment by rms
2017-03-13 01:13:23

Terry W. Clemans, executive director of the National Consumer Reporting Association, a group that represents companies that provide credit reports for mortgage lenders, said homebuyers “who are on the edge” — they need a score increase to get approved for a loan or obtain a better interest rate — “may be of higher risk than (lenders) are aware after this data is removed.”

Tim Coyle, senior director of real estate and mortgage for LexisNexis Risk Solutions, a large data and technology company that sells creditors data on public records, including judgments and tax liens, told me in an interview that an internal study by his firm found that borrowers who have a judgment or a tax lien are 5 1/2 times more likely to end up in serious default or foreclosure compared with borrowers who don’t have such items in their files.

Nice find.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-12 13:11:11

Coral Gables, FL Housing Tanks; Prices Plunge 11% YoY

https://www.zillow.com/coral-gables-fl/home-values/

 
Comment by Lurker
2017-03-12 14:44:42

Apologies if this is too off-topic, but since it’s a slow, China-focused day -

Interesting article from the Economist last month about casino-building in Japan, pinning its hopes on unwanted development to snare gambling money from now-capital-controlled China. Looks like they either a) forgot Macau’s success was more about money laundering than the fun of gambling, or b) want in on the money laundering, too late in the game.

Encapsulates a lot of our favorite RE issues - foreign wealth tourism, hotels, pie-in-the-sky growth hopes, reliance on construction for economic activity, and a government going ahead with a policy which 88% of its citizens oppose.

I typed up some highlights:

<> Economist, Feb 4, 2017, pg 35.

Comment by Lurker
2017-03-12 14:46:05

“Japan’s government has struggled to convince citizens that the current [gambling] strictures should be relaxed. When the Diet legalized casinos in December after years of political wrangling, a poll by NHK, the country’s public broadcaster, put support for the move at just 12%….

…Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, insists casinos will be only one part of family-friendly resorts, with hotels, shops and conference facilities. In an anaemic economy, his enthusiasm is not hard to understand: the construction of these huge complexes could generate ¥5trn in economic activity - with another ¥2trn a year once they have opened, largely from increased tourism…

…Foreign casino operators have already begun lobbying for a slice of this pie. Las Vegas Sands, MGM Resorts and Hard Rock Cafe International are among the companies looking for licenses and local partners. Bureaucrats are crafting more legislation to decide how many resorts to permit and where to put them. This, say analysts, is where the road could get bumpy.

Some politicians want to deter locals from visiting casinos by imposing an entry tax… In a recent survey, 75% of Japanese said they would not like a casino to be built near their homes….

…Well-heeled tourists, mainly from China, are expected to be the main punters… About 20m people visited Japan last year. The government wants to double this by 2020, along with the roughly ¥3.5trn that tourists spend annually.

Even if the casinos get off the ground, Japan faces stiff regional competition from Macau, Malaysia, and Singapore….

“Over 140 countries have legal casinos; why should we be left out?” [asks Susumu Hamamura, a Komeito politician]. Even he accepts, however, that most Japanese are “emotionally” against casinos and will need to be convinced. He plans to win them over, he says, by explaining one of the overlooked benefits of the resorts: they will give foreigners something to do at night.”

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-12 14:55:41

80% of off-plan Chinese buyers are FB’s and that’s a slow day?

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-13 05:53:39

Forgot the sarcasm tags, apparently…

 
Comment by Lurker
2017-03-13 12:25:50

Hehe, good point. Mea culpa, and no offense intended!

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-12 15:09:18

‘Prices have only gone up in the past… The government will not let the market correct as long as property is still the pillar of economic growth,’ said Zhou, a businessman who owns multiple homes in Hefei.’

I’m reminded of how the Chinese government stampeded the public into a stock bubble only to see people jumping out of windows when it all came crashing down. Any government that could create a perpetual wealth machine would do it, although I’ve never heard of one that succeeded.

26 Aug, 2015

‘A 57-year-old man has allegedly committed suicide in Shenyang, the largest city in Liaoning Province, by jumping off the 17th floor of a building, possibly in response to a recent stock market crash in China, local press reported.’

‘According to a witness, a black briefcase ‘full of stock-related materials’ was found on the ground next to the body of the man who was reportedly identified as a local resident. The key Shanghai Composite Index sank another 7.63 percent on Tuesday, extending its worst four-day rout since 1996. In an effort to boost exports, which fell 8.3 percent in July year-on-year, China has significantly devalued its national currency. However, the weaker yuan and government measures to prop up equities have failed to soothe investor concerns. Plummeting Chinese stocks have dragged Asian and European markets down with them.’

‘In July, a woman leaped to her death in Shanghai’s IAPM mall in a suicide also linked to plummeting stocks, according to shanghaiist.com.’

‘Last month, Chinese authorities arrested a man who had allegedly been spreading rumors about people jumping off buildings in Beijing because of a stock market crash, China Central Television reported. The 29-year-old man allegedly wrote on social media that “there are people, because of the stock market crash, who have jumped off buildings in Beijing’s Financial Street.” The post in question disappeared the day after it was created, thought to have been deleted by the state censors. Its author was detained for “disorderly behavior.”

Comment by rms
2017-03-13 01:17:37

‘In July, a woman leaped to her death in Shanghai’s IAPM mall in a suicide also linked to plummeting stocks, according to shanghaiist.com.’

PBear uploaded an uncensored photo, IIRC. Shoppers appeared unmoved.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-13 07:17:15

I suspect this kind of event is so frequent in Shanghai that it hardly phases the typical shopper.

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2017-03-12 18:16:54

Ok. I just watched this video for the first time.

It’s almost like HBBers directed it…

Chained to the Rhythm - Katy Perry

https://youtu.be/Um7pMggPnug

 
Comment by sfrz
2017-03-12 22:00:22

Mike Rosenberg‏Verified account @ByRosenberg Mar 10
$2,000 a month for San Francisco studio with toilet in the kitchen https://www.reddit.com/r/sanfrancisco/comments/5yov3m/2000_for_a_studio_that_has_the_toilet_and_shower/ … pic.twitter.com/zXrmCPG7GN

 
Comment by rms
2017-03-13 02:34:54

“The debt time bomb that is Britain”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYVZKpH3pnM

Comment by rms
2017-03-13 07:36:19

This is an excellent clip, well researched and nicely narrated. The comments are interesting… plenty of denial.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-13 06:37:21

Rising tax burdens due to aging populations and slowing growth (or worse) are going to fall heavily on home owners.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/12/budget-2017-tax-burden-course-climb-40-year-high/

Comment by rms
2017-03-13 07:40:51

Back on the farm the old didn’t need rest homes, and the kids didn’t require day care. Then came the industrial age.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-13 10:57:42

Life was pretty bleak before the industrial age. A lot of kids died before they turned five.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-13 11:20:27

Housing my good friend

“Manhattan Rents Fall for Every Apartment Size, Even Studios”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-09/manhattan-rents-decline-for-every-apartment-size-even-studios

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-13 13:25:12

Life was pretty bleak before the industrial age.

Before Pasteur and others invented vaccines for all sorts of diseases life was nasty, brutish and short for many.

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Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-13 13:09:48

did anyone in the previous generation have a mort after age 60 ?

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-13 06:38:49

“Mainland Chinese investors are now the world’s largest buyers of overseas real estate. These buyers added fuel to the fire created by over enthusiastic domestic buyers with massive mortgages, sending property rates soaring in Canada, Australia, England, France, Hong Kong…actually, pretty much everywhere.”

In the initial inflation of the domestic housing bubble inside U.S. boundaries, which occurred circa 1997-2006, California was the primary hub of real estate investing activity that drove prices in neighboring states across the West skyward.

In the post-2012 episode, Chinese investors have played the same role with respect to other nation states in the international financial arena that California investors played with respect to domestic neighboring states before the California bubble began to collapse in 2007.

“Many markets saw locals taking out record amounts of debt to compete with well funded foreign investors. It’ll be interesting to see if the narrative continues to be told that Chinese buyers are driving markets, or if locals will realize they’re now providing liquidity for those same well-funded investors that need to get out.”

To my recollection, when the California real estate investors started pulling out during the onset of the Great Recession in 2008, they left home owners in neighboring states stuck high and dry, which was quite ironic given their underwater mortgages.

Maybe this time is different. But in case not, I expect to see many home owners in areas of the international financial arena where the Chinese invested heavily left naked on the beach as the tsunami tide of Chinese liquidity rushes back out to sea.

Exhibit A: Vancouver

Comment by cactus
2017-03-13 12:39:45

The future of Irvine CA

Speaking generally about the city’s cultural differences, Susa said: “There are people who feel, ‘Why do we have to adjust to their way?’ I hear that quite a bit.”
But for many the Asian diversity has brought a welcome addition of cultural festivals, foreign languages – more than half of residents 5 and older speak a language other than English – and new flavors to the beige, suburban sprawl.

And inflation and probably no section 8

Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-13 13:23:16

Behind all the diversity (meaning white, Indian and East Asian), Irvine is still a bland, if upscale and pricey, suburban sprawl.

 
Comment by rms
2017-03-13 19:15:43

Irvine is a nice area if you can afford it.

 
 
 
Comment by Get Stucco
2017-03-13 06:51:47

“Other developers have flagged similar problems with overseas sales. ‘(Chinese) customers can’t take their money out now, of course there’s an impact on our overseas sales,’ said an executive of state-backed Greenland Holdings, which has developments in Malaysia, the U.S. and U.K.”

It sounds to me like they got stucco…boy did they get stucco!

 
Comment by Get Stucco
2017-03-13 06:59:36

“Instead, speculators in Anhui’s provincial capital are betting just the opposite - that the government will ease curbs to support growth. Investors like Zhou Xiansheng say they are in no rush to sell their holdings.”

It’s exactly this kind of thinking that leads speculators at the late stage of a bubble to agree to purchase prices which are certain to ultimately collapse, due to the lack of fundamental support.

“‘Prices have only gone up in the past… The government will not let the market correct as long as property is still the pillar of economic growth,’ said Zhou, a businessman who owns multiple homes in Hefei.”

Sounds like Zhou got stucco.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-13 07:06:17

Does anyone have a clue on when the Fed’s seemingly-endless series of head fakes on rate rises will finally come to an end?

The Financial Times
Federal Reserve
Yellen set to lift pace of rate rises in 2017
Analysts move forward forecasts for timing of central bank moves
Markets: Drop in US crude hits energy stocks; Sterling and euro face testing week
The Federal Reserve, chaired by Janet Yellen, could lift rates this week
yesterday
by: Sam Fleming in Washington

Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chair, is likely to set in train an acceleration in the pace of interest rate increases on Wednesday as the US central bank responds to an economy that is hitting maximum employment and inflation that is nearing target.

An increase in short-term rates by a quarter point is probable at the meeting following a parade of signals by key policymakers in recent weeks. But with jobs data on Friday beating Wall Street expectations, previously sceptical traders are now betting that the Fed will be able to deliver on December forecasts for a total of three increases this year — with some analysts projecting four rises.

The Fed’s decision this month to deliberately and rapidly shift market expectations to a March increase underscores the strength of the US data and also the influence of buoyant financial conditions shown by the blockbuster rally in the stock market.

President Donald Trump, who has sought to claim credit for the economy’s growth, accused Ms Yellen in his campaign for keeping interest rates low to burnish Barack Obama’s legacy.

But the Fed chair got a boost from the White House on Sunday when Gary Cohn, a senior economic adviser to the president, said the Fed “has been doing a good job”.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-13 07:20:08

Opinion: The Fed would do a big favor for Trump by raising rates
Published: Mar 13, 2017 7:04 a.m. ET
Higher rates would put pressure on Trump to transform economy quickly
By Peter Morici
Columnist

The Federal Reserve would do President Donald Trump a favor by raising interest rates at its policy-making meeting this week — or at least signaling a clear intention to move in May.

Inflation is close to the Fed’s 2% target and globally pressures are even stronger. With unemployment below 5%, boosting growth and creating better paying jobs than were accomplished during the Obama era will require radical changes in federal policy.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-13 08:55:07

Fed’s on thin ice in a Trump administration, expert says
Published: Mar 13, 2017 9:32 a.m. ET
President may hold fire over looming rate hike, but may not forever
By Greg Robb
Senior economics reporter
Sarah Binder says the Fed is on thin ice in the Trump administration.

Don’t blame the Federal Reserve if it looks jittery these days.

The U.S. central bank is holding its breath waiting for a tweetstorm from President Donald Trump they are sure is coming.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has decided to pick up the pace of interest rate hikes this year, and some Republicans are already muttering darkly that the Fed seemed perfectly happy to hold interest rates low for President Obama but seem unwilling to continue the favorable treatment now that the GOP has recaptured the White House.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-13 09:35:37

Trump may have underestimated the resolve of the Deep State to make life difficult for him.

Comment by butters
2017-03-13 10:37:23

Was there any doubt?

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Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-13 11:48:48

he’ll chop more feds as his frustration grows

why do congress fckers need multiple offices?

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Comment by Apartment 401
Comment by @AltFacts
2017-03-13 08:52:37

Don’t believe everything you read in a business journal.

 
Comment by phony scandals
2017-03-13 09:25:18

Now I know why you got that sweet laminate deal. :)

Posted by Unique News Team on February 15, 2017

Last year was another banner year for commercial real estate development in Denver. In the metropolitan area, 19 properties sold for more than $100 million – for a total of $2.8 billion dollars in transactions. While certain segments like office and retail slowed to below 2015 levels, the market for apartments was strong and growing.

http://uniqueprop.com/commercial-real-estate-investing-trends-denver/

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
Comment by butters
2017-03-13 10:46:19

Maddog and Bulldog will end the wars, right?

 
Comment by rms
2017-03-13 20:31:07

The primary goal in Afghanistan is maintaining Forward Operating Bases (think airfields) along the Iranian border in an effort to curb their nuclear weapons ambitions keeping Israel safe. The rest of the activities and corruption in the country are the cost of doing business there.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-13 09:45:53

Hollywood, CA Housing Prices Tank 12% YoY

https://www.zillow.com/hollywood-los-angeles-ca/home-values/

 
Comment by butters
2017-03-13 10:41:32

Just as we thought. Amerikka what a fukushima!

Feds: “We Come Across Real Estate Being Purchased With Illicit Funds Once Every Other Case”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-13/feds-we-come-across-real-estate-being-purchased-illicit-funds-once-every-other-case

 
 
Comment by butters
2017-03-13 12:38:18

Oh ya, you need a higher credit score these days, right?
Even worse, they changed the definition in 2014 by boosting millions.

Fraud, Fraud, Fraud, Fraud, Fraud, Fraud

Amerika, what a fukushima!


Per WSJ

Credit Reports to Exclude Certain Negative Information, Boosting FICO Scores

 
Comment by amanda purula
2017-03-13 13:03:08

i read a similar article here.

http://www.knightsbridgefx.com/vancouver-real-estate-market-crash-china/

goes really indepth. im curious what the chinese will do to regulate this. the government is sure to understand what their citizens are doing. regulation rarely works if the right controls arent in place. just creates a blackmarket kind of environment.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-13 13:45:37

According to zillow the “Market temperature” in my little burg is “chilly”, which is bad news for two McMansion sellers in the nabe. One has already dropped his price twice, after moving out. I heard he bought an even bigger and fancier McMansion, before selling the old one. The dude owns an indoor shooting range. Hopefully he has the cash flow to cover two mortgages. His initial price was 500K, last I checked he dropped the asking price to 465K. He paid 283K in 2003, at least according to zillow.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-03-13 14:14:28

Indoor range sounds interesting. I wonder if it will handle big game rifles?

As I look at Colorado houses I’m surprised by the high prices on the north side of Denver…but compared to that surprised by the cheaper prices in Colorado Springs. There are 5-6br places there for 300-350k close to the tech on Garden of the Gods road. Has it always been cheaper there? I never looked at houses there before now.

Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-13 16:40:23

GeEEZZ, this is so 2006! Same exact comments about crazy prices.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-13 16:40:50

I think Springs has always been a little cheaper. More jobs in Denver, especially of the better paying variety. The Air Force Academy and base do inject money into Springs

 
Comment by phony scandals
2017-03-13 19:14:38

“I wonder if it will handle big game rifles?”

Shoot Straight does, right up to Elephant.

Visit the Shoot Straight West Palm Beach gun store, featuring a handgun and rifle firing range. Our handgun shooting range can handle any caliber up to and including .44 Magnum, while our rifle firing range accepts calibers up to and including .375 H&H Magnum. Our shooting ranges are also able to accommodate full-auto, machine gun shooting, for customers with Class 3 licenses. Shotguns are allowed on the rifle range, but only buckshot or slug (no birdshot please). For your comfort, your local shooting range is clean and air conditioned, providing year-round indoor climate control.

*Come on out and visit us on Ladies Day, held every Monday from 10am to close. Ladies shoot FREE! and only pay for ammo and targets.

Directions West Palm Beach Gun Range and Store

https://shoot-straight.com/locations-and-ranges/west-palm-beach/

Gunsmithing - The Nearly Perfect Safari Cartridge - 375 H&H

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6csXtRRqEQw

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-03-14 10:04:30

Oh! I interpreted it as him owning one IN HIS HOUSE :-). I didn’t realize they meant that was the business he owned.

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-14 10:18:43

Yeah, it’s a business the guy owns. Judging by the pricey cars he has and that he bought an even more expensive house I’m guessing he’s doing well.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by RealityBased
2017-03-13 15:05:11

Recently there was an article in the local Pacific Palisades, CA, community newspaper saying that the for sale RE inventory was the lowest ever recorded. For months I have noticed almost zero for sale signs. The only residential properties showing up online have seemed to have some sort of story going on for why they have never sold (ex. listed multiple times year after year, pulled off market, listed again…).

Suddenly this past weekend March 11-12, 2017, there were a ton of RE open house signs on every corner. I commented on this sudden change and my friend thought that it was just a seasonal thing. He said, “It’s spring. Best time to sell.” But in my mind this change was too sudden to just be a seasonal thing. I don’t know if there is any more inventory on the market or whether it is just a desperate push to move existing properties at the highest asking prices ever before people catch on regarding the inevitable tipping point.

 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-13 15:05:44

people buying here in N VA
peakers
AND the Donald is about to create DC’s first real recession

so far peeps out side the beltway are cheering the fed chops

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
 
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