December 1, 2017

Now That It’s More Normal, People Have More Fear

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Realtors are expecting overall home sales in Idaho to expand by 3 to 5 percent in 2018. The housing market is growing, and Ross Farr, a mortgage lender at Zions Bank, says the shortage of houses compared to the demand for them is expected to continue in 2018. If you are thinking about buying, in this market climate, do not wait for prices to drop because they won’t anytime soon. Buy when you can. ‘This pervasive concern that this is a new bubble and that we’re heading for another collapse — I did mortgages through that collapse. I know that fear is justified, however, this time, credit quality is so much higher. I don’t think people who are waiting for prices to come down, I don’t think they’re going to see it. I think they’re going to regret it,’ Farr said.”

“This year’s headlines maintained the fever pitch: ‘Nashville ranked nation’s hottest single-family housing market,’ ‘Nashville’s housing market ranked No. 1,’ ‘Should you invest in Nashville’s red-hot housing market?’ The region’s soaring values — up more than 34 percent over four years — are causing many to wonder: Is Nashville’s housing market in a bubble that’s about to burst?”

“A few signs are feeding their anxiety. During recent months, some Nashville neighborhoods have seen a distinct slowdown. Sales prices have dropped, the time it takes to sell a home has climbed, and the number of homes sold has slipped, compared to the same months in 2016. Hardest hit have been expensive neighborhoods and those in the urban core flooded with new infill development. ‘A lot of people got used to that rate of growth and now that it’s more normal, people have more fear,’ said Robby Stone, an agent with Village Real Estate.”

“Stone’s company has been trying to sell a new house in East Nashville for more than a year. His client, Aerial Development Group, tore down a tiny $165,000 house and built a four-bedroom house will all the latest design trends. Village Real Estate listed it for $649,000. The house hasn’t moved. Now the home is listed at $599,900, and Stone continues to show it on Sunday afternoons. ‘I have people ask me every week if that house has sold,’ he said. ‘I can’t wait for the day that I can say ‘yes.’”

“Sarasota belongs on the list of places with millionaire homeowners, and the high-end housing market here is on a hot streak. At the peak of the luxury market pricing potential buyers will find some price cuts. One of the listings of Saunders Realtor Kim Ogilvie rests on a scenic spot on Casey Key with panoramic views of both the Gulf of Mexico and Blackburn Bay. The asking price now has fallen almost a $1 million — to a shade under $8 million. ‘The key is pricing,’ Ogilvie said.”

“David Lowy, the son of the founder of retail giant, Westfield Corporation, is the owner of the opulent One57 pad that came on the market on Monday, asking $27 million. Even if it sells for its full ask, the apartment will still be a loss for Lowy, who picked it up for $28 million in 2015, according to the Wall Street Journal.”

“Toronto developer Brad Lamb has cancelled plans to build a major downtown Edmonton condo project. The 37-storey Jasper House Condominiums On The Park was supposed to start construction by fall, but a statement from the Lamb Development Corp. said it couldn’t meet critical dates in the purchase and sale agreements. ‘The unfortunate economic circumstances that unfolded in Alberta over the last three years negatively affected our sales projections,’ the company said.”

“Jagbeer Singh, a private security guard, whiles away his time at the entrance of a ghost town in outer Delhi’s Bawana — rows of abandoned apartment buildings constructed for 3,680 poor families currently living in slums tucked in the crevices of the national capital. ‘I don’t know for whom these houses were built, but I do not mind guarding them as long I get paid (a monthly salary of Rs 10,000),’ says Singh, pointing towards a road overrun by wild grass which leads to the desolate four-storey tower blocks with broken windowpanes and plaster chipping off the walls.”

“A body representing real estate agents and negotiators has urged for a more nuanced view on the status of the property market, amid reports that there is an overhang on the supply side of the market. ‘When the data comes out from the National Property Information Centre (Napic) that there will be an overhang of, let’s say, 40 percent, a lot of people who see the data don’t really dissect where the data comes from. Some (of the data) are from areas where you shouldn’t be building homes. When you put homes there and can’t sell it, then it gets added (to the figures) and will show that there is an overhang,’ said Malaysian Institute of Estate Agents president Eric Lim.”

“Recent falls in Sydney prices could continue for months to come as the market finally slams into reverse gear, housing experts claim. Data showed home prices slid down for a third straight month over November, with the market having peaked in July. Four years of ballooning values have been pricked by a combination of tighter bank lending policies, a crackdown on overseas investors, stagnant wage growth and a flood of properties coming onto the market in spring. Where once Sydney sellers could name their price, now agents report they face a battle to attract prospective buyers to open inspections.”

“Elders Real Estate’s Peter Salisbury said would-be buyers were dropping out of contention for many of the homes currently up for sale. ‘Last year we were getting at least 15 people coming to open-for-inspections. Now you’re lucky if there’s three,’ he said. ‘There are a lot more buyers putting in low-ball offers. That was something you wouldn’t bother doing before.’”

“Ray White Rural Miles sales consultant, David Sweetapple said it was in December 2013 when the housing market fell overnight due to resource companies pulling their staff from the communities into camps. Mr Sweetapple does not blame the companies for their action but said the decision crippled the town of Miles. ‘Since then we went up to 45 per cent vacancy and property values dropped by 80 per cent,’ he said.”

“First National Real Estate Chinchilla Principal Rebecca Gurski said the the housing prices during the CSG boom were unsustainable and once the construction had finished, a mass exodus occurred affecting everyone. ‘It affected investors, home owners plus the pricing going down affecting everybody,’ she said.”

“Karina and Juan Santillan bought their home, a single-story bungalow in West Covina, 20 miles east of Los Angeles, for $152,000 in 1999. In retrospect, refinancing their home was a bad idea. But the Santillan family never thought that it would lead them to foreclosure, or that they’d spend years bouncing among hotels and living in their car. The parents never thought it would force three of their four children to leave the schools they’d been attending and take classes online, or require them to postpone college and their careers for years. They did not know they would still be recovering financially today, in 2017.”

“A few years after they bought their home, the Santillans say, people started knocking on their door selling financial products. It was easy money, the Santillans were told. Borrow against your house, it’s sure to gain value. Santillans refinanced their home in 2003. Records show they took out an additional mortgage in 2004, but Karina says she has no recollection of taking out a second mortgage. They refinanced again in 2004. They used the money to remodel their home, which they figured would give it more value. As housing prices in the region soared, they refinanced one more time, in 2005, borrowing $396,000 from New Century Financial Corp., which would itself file for bankruptcy two years later. At the time, their house worth less than $300,000, according to Zillow.”

“The payments would have been high even if both Karina and Juan had been working full-time. But Karina’s work selling insurance dried up as the housing bubble burst in 2007. Then the ink manufacturing company where Juan worked cut everyone’s pay 10 percent. They first fell behind on payments beginning in 2007, and received an eviction notice in early 2009. To keep their home, they would have had to pay $447,431. They moved out of their home on June 29, 2009. While America prides itself on being a place where people can climb up the economic ladder, it’s also a place where people can fall fast, and far. ‘We just can’t forget, that in any given moment, things can change,’ Karina told me.”




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153 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-01 08:36:21

‘Since then we went up to 45 per cent vacancy and property values dropped by 80 per cent’

OMG, it can’t happen here! Yesterday I posted a report of NYC airboxes being cut 50%.

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-01 08:43:21

If your fingers have been itching to short Bitcoin, the opportunity may soon be available. However, beware the tendency of Wall Street Boyz with big bux and friends at the Fed to play the Get Shorty card.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-01/bitcoin-futures-to-start-trading-as-regulators-rush-to-catch-up

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-01 08:54:41

“Bitcoin, created in 2009, excited early investors with its potential use as a global currency, free from bank fees and government control. Transactions take place person-to-person around the world — anywhere there’s Internet access. The cryptocurrency’s price skyrocketed in recent months, surpassing $11,000 this week before paring some gains.”

Here’s a tip for the Winklevi, or whomever is driving the bus:

BitCents, at an exchange rate of 1,000,000 BitCents per Bitcoin, and
BitBux, pegged at 10,000 BitBux = 1 Bitcoin.

Presto-chango: Now we have a Bitcurrency, and the astronomical gains are locked in…

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-12-01 11:31:15

I don’t even fully understand Bitcoin. I was reading about block chains and stuff, and it’s not easy for somebody who’s not a computer geek. It’s hard to even understand how to buy and keep Bitcoins safe. Admittedly, I am NEVER going to venture into Bitcoin.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-12-01 11:57:28

I’ve been a computer user since the punch card era, starting in 1981, and I can’t honestly assess whether Bitcoin is real or just an elaborate scam.

If it were a scam, how could anyone demonstrate it, given that there is no direct physical evidence that Bitcoin exists?

Bitcoin is already dwarfing some of the largest financial market bubbles of all time
- If bitcoin is indeed a cryptocurrency bubble, it’s already much larger than the Nasdaq in the late 1990s, the Dow in the roaring 1920s, and silver in the late 1970s.
- Birinyi Associates studied bitcoin versus 10 other bubbles, and found it came out as one of the largest.
- Lazlo Birinyi says he believes bitcoin probably is in a bubble, and while he would trade it, he would not invest in it.
Patti Domm
Published 22 Hours Ago
Updated 21 Hours Ago CNBC.com
Bitcoin’s volatility is in full force this week
23 Hours Ago | 01:04

Bitcoin already has the look of one of the biggest financial market bubbles of all time.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2017-12-01 12:06:49

The analogy that I like to think of is someone creating a new kind of metal, and then making a spoon out of the metal.

Bitcoin is the spoon
Blockchain is the metal

As I understand it, the blockchain is a distributed, public ledger of transactions. Accordingly, it is hard/impossible to fake (because you need to hack substantially all of the places that keeps the ledger simultaneously), and has the potential to reduce the costs of many transactions in the economy (reducing fees to middlemen throughout the economy).

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Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-01 12:26:40

“Bitcoin is the spoon”

Sounds like mania talk to me. Just sayin!

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-12-01 12:41:36

Outside the Matrix there is no spoon?

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-12-01 13:07:26

My point is that everyone thinks that the interesting thing is this particular application (spoon) of the technology (metal).

What is interesting is NOT this particular application (bitcoin), but the technology itself (blockchain).

 
Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-01 13:17:51

“the technology…”

About that. I doubt that it does book keeping any handier than my grandmother in-law did with pen and paper. She ran a rural bank that wasn’t even electrified at first.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-12-01 13:34:16

So many of the fees that middle-men earn today are effectively based on trust. Block chain allows transactions to occur without paying someone on that basis.

Blockchain will eventually force transaction fees lower.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-12-01 15:15:31

That is kind of the thought behind this op-ed:

Invest In Bitcoin, Even If It Is A Bubble
Leonid Bershidsky

“Sure, bitcoin may be a bubble. But by causing this year’s sensational increases in the value of an electronic commodity that can’t be used for much more than speculation, bitcoin investors are raising the visibility of the technology behind it, driving more people to work on improving it, making it fashionable and thus interesting for financial institutions and governments. Somewhere beyond a not-so-remote horizon, today’s hype may result in cheaper and more convenient identification technology with different levels of privacy, cheaper transactions, better ways of making contracts. The more money is invested in bitcoin, the faster kinks are ironed out of these applications — and the more money investors can make by backing companies that develop them.

When cash burns, it often warms up the universe by a degree or two. Investments in progress are never entirely wasted.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-28/invest-in-bitcoin-even-if-it-s-a-bubble

I’m still not buying any. I don’t have that kind of cash to burn.

 
Comment by Montanagal
2017-12-01 15:35:03

Don’t know nuthin but sounds like a bubblecrash in the future to me!

 
Comment by junior_kai
2017-12-01 16:41:43

Been a math/software guy for many years. Blockchain is very interesting, but bitcoin and the rest seem like hype driven bubbles at this point. Early on there wasnt much hype, but it was used mostly for dark web stuff and as such of little use to the average person. Note in my queries of Bill in Az or where ever back in the day he couldnt address the deficiency in the transaction rate. Then you get into forking, groups conspiring to inflate certain cryptos and hammer others, its just a den of thieves imo. Most of the “investors” I know are starry eyed millenials that dont have a good grasp of math, software, or finance which makes me think there are a lot of weak hands buying this stuff.

You could call it teslanomics, or maybe yellenomics, as she is the mother of all the current bubbles.

 
Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-01 17:35:47

Interesting take kai.

I’m just an old practical world engineer. the bitcoin craze (and I’ve seen my share) seems as silly and empty to me as trading in virtual commodities.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-12-01 17:53:28

Bitcoin is starting to be priced as though it is going to become a meaningful way that transactions take place (frictionless, transparent, etc.). However, the instant that begins to happen, I think we’ll find government sponsored groups step in…Dudley said said recently that the Fed is looking into Blockchain tech.

In other words with Bitcoin long-term, there seem to be two high probability logical outcomes:

1. Bitcoin doesn’t take off as a useful transactional tool, and falls considerably…perhaps to 0.
2. Bitcoin does take off as a useful transactional tool, and the things that make it useful are related to the blockchain, which is adopted by large governments, or the traditional financial world, and so Bitcoin never becomes truly mainstream….falls considerably…perhaps to zero.

Invest in ways to utilize blockchain…not by owning Bitcoin.

 
Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-01 18:52:37

“logical outcomes:”

Not if it’s a mania.

Consider the possibility that it is still primarily a conduit for illegal activities and the vast majority using it don’t care what the price action is if they can spirit funds around the world pretty quick and quiet.

The Chinese government could crush the bug with a few high profile smuggling arrests, confiscations and executions. Yes they still do that.

 
Comment by junior_kai
2017-12-01 18:55:52

It also reminds me of the early days of kiteboarding and now with hydrofoils. Kite design was changing so much that in just a years time the kite you had would look like something from the stone age. Now you have it with hydrofoil surfing - boards getting much shorter, etc. and even bike hydrofoils coming out (a dream I’ve had for some time) that will be considered laughable in 3-5 years.

I get the same vibe from all the associated tech in blockchain. Mixers, cold storage wallets, you name it - there will be a lot of scrambling to see what works but I dont think we’re even close to seeing the dust settle. And as I said in days previous, I wouldnt be surprised if the central bankers like it in that it sucks up a lot of the excess liquidity they themselves created and from my examination of the tech backing it it had to have been developed by a team of people, not some loner genius because it synthesizes developments across a number of fields in a brilliant way and I just dont see a single person being that cognizant of that much information and having the vision to develop something so radical. So I would put money on a dev team, maybe out of NSA that developed this as an offshoot of something else. It would also serve the purpose that they could use the profits to fund some of their operations.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-01 19:54:05

‘Invest in ways to utilize blockchain’

I want to at least get a beanie baby doll.

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-02 01:53:11

I got a free Beanie Baby as a prize for memorizing a passage at a work training seminar last year. Can’t wait until the day I am similarly handed my first Bitcoin… entirely for free, no less.

 
Comment by oxide
2017-12-02 06:39:11

So Rental Watch, you think that the US Dollar will eventually be handled with blockchain, the way that Bitcoin is now? Intriguing. Well, why not. I bet that Poor Richard wasn’t thinking about saving pennies when flew that kite.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-01 08:46:22

‘Nashville ranked nation’s hottest single-family housing market,’ ‘Nashville’s housing market ranked No. 1,’

Just as in the 1996-2007 run-up, the Housing Bubble 2.0 contagion has worked its way inland from the frothy coastal markets to the formerly stable heartland markets.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-01 08:53:28

‘Stone’s company has been trying to sell a new house in East Nashville for more than a year. His client, Aerial Development Group, tore down a tiny $165,000 house and built a four-bedroom house will all the latest design trends. Village Real Estate listed it for $649,000. The house hasn’t moved. Now the home is listed at $599,900′

This article is a hoot. It’s full of, “is it a bubble now the wheels have come off?” Uh, the time to be concerned was when it was skyrocketing up. Yes, there is a limited time in your life when you can tear down a perfectly good house and stick a couple or three hundred thousand in your pocket. Imagine that.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-12-01 11:40:55

“Yes, there is a limited time in your life when you can tear down a perfectly good house and stick a couple or three hundred thousand in your pocket. Imagine that.”

When you try to tell that to people around Seattle they’ll sneer and mock you like you’re mentally handicapped. Teardowns in decent neighborhoods are where builders of single family houses concentrate. They thinking nothing of paying $500,000 for a “scraper” in Bellevue.

 
Comment by redmondjp
2017-12-01 11:56:19

And not mentioned - the increase in property taxes when compared to the old house.

Remember that ABC TV show ‘Extreme Makeover’? There was more than one instance in which even though the homeowner was GIVEN the improved house with no mortgage, they still couldn’t keep it afterwards due to the doubled or tripled property taxes due.

This happened for one of the homes they redid on the peninsula here in WA.

Even if it’s free, it doesn’t mean that you can afford to keep it. A friend of mine has a wealthy sister in Florida - the annual property taxes on their home there are $121K/year. That’s more than I make in a year!

Comment by Hi-Z
2017-12-01 14:15:29

Using the average Fl property tax rate (.97% from tax-rates.org),
the wealthy sister has a house valued at $12-$13 million. Living large has consequences.

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Comment by Mike in Carlsbad
2017-12-01 22:57:36

A coworker inherited his grandfathers paid for La Jolla beach front mansion and the only way he can keep it in the family is to rent it out to CEOs as executive housing. Sad taxes prevent his family from living in it themselves and only the rich CEOs get to live in it. He is determined to keep it in the family, I would have sold it at the peak last summer.

 
Comment by rms
2017-12-02 05:10:03

If a family member were disabled, even mentally, they would be able to maintain grandpa’s prop13 tax basis, obtain low-rate utilities, lifeline telephone service, etc., and a second family member could act as a support provider, receive SSDI, etc.

Play the Game!

 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2017-12-01 12:01:00

Here is the house in East Nashville:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1703-Electric-Ave-Nashville-TN-37206/41118302_zpid/?fullpage=true

(The master bedroom is a travesty of air. At first, I thought someone had plunked a random bed into the living room!)

And here is the house they tore down, from Google street view in 2013:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/1703+Electric+Ave,+Nashville,+TN+37206/@36.1672041,-86.7402337,3a,75y,90t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s0GnnLG5tuvCsgFD-y-eKOg!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo1.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3D0GnnLG5tuvCsgFD-y-eKOg%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dsearch.TACTILE.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D86%26h%3D86%26yaw%3D0.3429585%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656!4m5!3m4!1s0×886468825f7bc66b:0×59a1b199b74c8605!8m2!3d36.1673556!4d-86.7402063

I’m not sure I’d call that a perfectly good house. And certainly not $165K worth. I bet that ‘hood is full of deplorables.

Comment by oxide
2017-12-01 13:12:49

That house is never going to fetch that price. They ignored the first rule of remodeling: never build the palace on the block; you’ll never get your money back.

And even if that house were in a better ‘hood, you are getting NO details for your 600 large. No decorative built-ins, no crown molding, no plumbing in the kitchen island, a fireplace in the upstairs bedroom but no corresponding fireplace in the living room directly below (not sure how they do that), no basement, and a crappy yard.

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Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-01 13:23:58

no corresponding fireplace in the living room…

It’s a gas fireplace. There is no chimney on the house. The old up/down fireplace was because the chimney masonry had to go all the way to ground.

 
Comment by SFMF
2017-12-01 14:36:10

“That house is never going to fetch that price. They ignored the first rule of remodeling: never build the palace on the block; you’ll never get your money back.”

Yep. Always own the cheapest house in the most expensive ‘hood, never the other way around.

 
Comment by oxide
2017-12-01 14:40:36

Thanks. I was guessing something like that, but to put a fireplace in a bedroom but not the living area… it looks ridiculous.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-12-01 15:24:28

I don’t know, I kind of like the house, but I’d only about 1/2 the ask, if that.

It does seem to me that when the bust happens that the high end of the market gets compressed a lot more than the bottom. I think there is more safety in building as affordable as possible but not so poorly that there are any glaring quality deficits.

 
 
Comment by Puggs
2017-12-04 11:34:52

You’ve really hamstrung yourself when you put the master bedroom upstairs and overbuild for the neighborhood.

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Comment by rms
2017-12-04 21:20:44

I’ve seen a number of duplexes with the master bedroom upstairs.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-01 08:49:22

From the last link:

‘Despite ever-sunnier economic conditions overall, the Great Recession is still rattling American families. When the next economic crisis hits, the losses could be even more profound. “There are people who still, to this day, are trying to get back on their feet,” Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, told me. “These households are slowly finding their way back, but they’re still on a journey.”

So here’s Chairman Mao Zandi giving us the sob story. Hey Mark, weren’t you a big supporter of reflating the bubble? Remember? I do. You and Ho Chi Shiller were up front and center crying “please uncle sugar, save shack prices or we’ll be eating gruel!”

Expect me to remind you of this fact as the ass-pounding pile up.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-01 08:57:04

And from the first link:

“‘This pervasive concern that this is a new bubble and that we’re heading for another collapse — I did mortgages through that collapse. I know that fear is justified, however, this time, credit quality is so much higher. I don’t think people who are waiting for prices to come down, I don’t think they’re going to see it.”

Subprime today is larger than it’s ever been but “credit quality is so much higher”. Riiiiiight.

Not gonna see prices come down? Silly realtors.

Hailey, ID Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY

https://www.zillow.com/hailey-id/home-values/

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-01 09:04:11

“There are people who still, to this day, are trying to get back on their feet,”

Always the master of understatement…

Opinion #​PublicHealth
Nov 30, 2017 @ 01:42 PM
America’s Opioid Crisis: A Nation Hooked
Neil Howe, Forbes Contributor

In a speech last month, President Trump declared America’s opioid crisis a national public health emergency, telling observers that “nobody has seen anything like” it. He’s right: The opioid epidemic is being called the worst public health crisis in American history, with its lethal consequences exacting a toll on users, families, and law enforcement nationwide. Though the affected span all ages, it’s Boomers (and early-wave Xers) who are pushing up overdose rates the most—a divergence from typical demographic patterns and a reflection of a risk-taking ethos that has followed these generations into maturity.

In 2015, more than 52,000 Americans died of drug overdoses. Nearly two-thirds were linked to opioids such as OxyContin, Vicodin, heroin, and fentanyl. This figure has quadrupled since 1999 and is now the highest on record, exceeding the death toll of past heroin epidemics, the crack epidemic of the 1980s, and the peak of the AIDS epidemic in the 1990s. Drug overdoses now kill more Americans than car accidents or guns. And the numbers keep rising: A preliminary analysis by The New York Times­ estimates that there were 59,000 to 65,000 such deaths in 2016. It’s even possible these figures are too low, because many deaths that result from opioid-induced conditions—such as pneumonia—aren’t being counted as overdoses.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-01 09:15:29

A question for you pukes: What country supplies 90% of the world’s heroin and has reached this status since being occupied by the US military?

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-12-01 11:54:58

Afghanistan?

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-01 12:48:28

From Wikipedia …

“Afghanistan’s opium poppy production goes into more than 90% of heroin worldwide.[1] Afghanistan has been the world’s greatest illicit opium producer, ahead of Burma (Myanmar), the “Golden Triangle”, and Latin America since 1992, excluding the year 2001.[2] Afghanistan is the main producer of opium in the “Golden Crescent”. Opium production in Afghanistan has been on the rise since U.S. occupation started in 2001.”

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-01 12:56:30

Wiki-up “Opium production in Afghanistan” for an extensive read on the subject.

 
Comment by rms
2017-12-01 14:15:38

The U.S. Military is in Afghanistan and Iraq to “sandwich” Iran geographically in order to promote Israel’s security. Opium production and the rape of young boys are cultural issues that don’t interest the State Department.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-12-01 15:30:58

This isn’t news to me. I see hordes of addicts, of all ages, races, and socio-economic statuses in our hospital. We call them “frequent flyers.”

They are always in and out and there is always a new ailment or complaint that will precipitate a refill of the Norcos and Percocets. What the addicts love most is dilaudid. They keep me jumpin Q2 and then they are back in the hospital in a few weeks with another bowel obstruction from narcotic bowel syndrome.

It’s not Afghanistan that I’m worried about, we are doing this to ourselves. Our own drug companies are decimating the populace.

Elsewhere, 1/2 of all children growing up are slated to be obese by age 35:

http://beta.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-childhood-obesity-future-20171130-story.html

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-12-01 16:15:58

“What the addicts love most is dilaudid.”

Elvis, Tiger Woods….the list goes on…

 
 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-01 09:16:47

65,000 overdose deaths a year.

This is Obama’s legacy :)

Comment by SFMF
2017-12-01 14:39:22

Maybe it was mentioned before, but up until about 6 months ago I had never heard of the so-called opioid crisis in America. Funny how for 8 years under Obama, not a peep about it. Then as soon as Trump takes over…BAM!! Half the country is on drugs, per dinosaur MSM.

Much like how homelessness started in 1981, went away in 1993, came back in 2001, disappeared in 2009 and made a roaring comeback in 2017.

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Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-12-01 15:37:17

I assure you it’s no conspiracy by MSM. This is relatively new and you can read about the steady crescendo of abuse that all started in the 1990s by pharmaceutical companies downplaying the risks of addiction and basically creating a generation of addicts.

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-12-01 16:18:05

“Funny how for 8 years under Obama, not a peep about it. Then as soon as Trump takes over…BAM!! Half the country is on drugs, per dinosaur MSM.”

C’mon, you just made that up. In Seattle they’ve been talking about the problem for years, and it’s a liberal cesspool. The stories were all over the national news before Trump was even elected. This partisanship crap is for the birds.

 
Comment by tresho
2017-12-01 16:20:17

I assure you it’s no conspiracy by MSM.
I fully agree. Can’t argue with the increasing number of newly dead bodies that test + for narcs. Very easy to graph with paper & pencil. Unless you are into the full conspiracy mode with hackers on many levels generating fake death certificates.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-01 16:33:19

What pisses me off is the large number of pukes who are dying from overdoses.

The stupidity of pukes who choose to die from drugs thins out the herd of stupids who just might be the same set of stupids who have the potential to be enticed by my Dotted Line Specials.

In this respect a stupid puke’s life is a terrible thing Special.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-01 16:35:22

Correction: In this respect a stupid puke’s life is a terrible thing to waste.

 
Comment by tresho
2017-12-01 16:47:05

I assure you it’s no conspiracy by MSM.
AFAICT, the synthetic narcs like fentanyl and carfentanyl do not depend on a base chemical produced from poppies, so don’t blame Afghanistan. Labs in China have been producing large quantities. US dealers cut the more expensive heroin with fentanyl / etc to cut costs. Addicts used to be able to predict the effect of whatever-it-was they were ingesting, but no more. The USPS is subsidizing small mail parcel delivery from China for years, plain brown wrappers that are not inspected by customs in any way. The Mounties recently seized 1 kg of illegal carfentanyl, which they estimated was enough to kill the entire population of Canada. Don’t blame big pharma for this. Many other hands are stirring this witch’s brew.
A few years back the rumor was that the Russians used aerosolized carfentanyl (or something like it) to knock out a roomful of terrorists and their hostages. I expect at some point in the next 10 or 20 years terrorists will use the same methods to kill innocents.
Grants are now available for community organizations to run programs for the general public on recognizing & treating drug overdoses. “Free” opioid antagonist kits like Narcan are given out during these sessions. Big pharma almost certainly gets extra income from these programs.
MSM as usual is doing a p— poor job of informing the public about such trivial news as the above. Dumb ‘em down, kill ‘em off. Plenty more where they came from.

 
Comment by tresho
2017-12-01 16:53:09

a terrible thing to waste
As I mentioned in another post, carfentanyl / etc. would make a nice weapon of mass destruction. It can be aerosolized, is dirt cheap, absorbed through the skin, can kill within minutes of exposure. Narcan theoretically can reverse effect, but is much less potent. EMS may not be carrying enough antagonists to help even if they try.
DEA called it “an unpredented threat” - in 2016.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-01 16:53:43

I don’t want to dumb ‘em down, kill them off, I want to dumb ‘em down and keep them alive so that I can fully exploit them.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-01 16:55:28

The efficient parasite does not kill the host.

 
Comment by tresho
2017-12-01 16:56:42

I want to dumb ‘em down and keep them alive so that I can fully exploit them.
I think I understand your point of view, but it’s really not your call. Many other hands are stirring this witch’s brew.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-12-01 17:04:04

In this respect a stupid puke’s life is a terrible thing to waste.

So what you’re saying is that the suicide of a slave is actually theft.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-01 17:49:58

“I think I understand your point of view, but it’s really not your call. Many other hands are stirring this witch’s brew.”

None of this is my call; I merely enjoy tapping into what is eagerly offered to me.

The correct thing to say to drugs and overwhelming debt is the word “no”. This decision to say no should only need to be done one time.

But for some people the decision to say no is not made one time; This decision for some people is freshly made many times - freshly made any time drugs or overwhelming debt is offered to them. Sooner or later in a moment of weakness or whatever the decision to say the word “no” will come out as the word “yes” - and away they will go, as in another one bites the dust.

 
Comment by oxide
2017-12-02 06:57:04

Then as soon as Trump takes over…BAM!! Half the country is on drugs,

It has nothing to do with Obama or Trump. IMO, it was the death of Prince, in April 2016.

His death path had it all: painkillers –> heroin –> fentanyl. I roughly knew about drugs and heroin, but Prince’s death raised awareness like nothing else.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-12-02 16:02:39

Don’t blame big pharma for this.

It’s not just big pharma that is to blame here. Consider this: many of the insurance regulations push generic opioids as first line of treatment. They are dirt cheap and less abuse-prone medications are often not reimbursed through health plans or have significantly higher co-pays. The whole incentive system does very little to encourage less addictive meds, alternative therapies, and even the very treatments needed to overcome the addiction created in the first place.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/17/health/opioid-painkillers-insurance-companies.html?mcubz=0

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-12-02 16:06:49

To be fair, a significant portion of opioid addicts don’t make the leap to heroin or fentanyl. They doc shop and pressure their significant other to get pain meds and then they siphon off from friend and family.

Many suffer years of addiction related symptoms (especially bowel disorders, cachexia, withdrawal, delirium, etc.) until they hit full blown respiratory depression and it’s a code blue until EMS hits them with Narcan.

 
Comment by tresho
2017-12-03 01:31:45

until they hit full blown respiratory depression and it’s a code blue
You make the process of sudden death from opioids sound like the duration of the addiction is what causes “respiratory depression” and a “code blue”. I maintain that either complication will be simply due to the last opioid dose taken before the catastrophic reaction. Doses / drugs currently available on the black market are what is suddenly killing an increasing number people these past 2 years. The other conditions on your list are not a major problem for most people, particularly those found apneic and blue with needles still in their veins.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-12-03 08:50:52

For emergent situations, yes it the harder drugs that are causing overdoses. But many opioid addicts become addicted and habituated such that lower doses no longer give them the psychological and physiological hit that they were getting. And they up their dosage and go into respiratory depression. This happens on milder opioids, not just heroin, carfentanyl, and fentanyl.

But you’re right, it is really two sides of the same coin. Dying quickly from overdose or dying slowly from the bodily complications from long-term opioid use. Either path is assured destruction.

 
Comment by tresho
2017-12-03 09:39:02

And they up their dosage and go into respiratory depression.
I very much doubt that the soon-to-be-dead abusers carefully measure how much or what they are injecting, if they got it from a non-approved source.
Macomb Co. Sheriff reports 6 heroin overdoses in 5 days

The Macomb County Sheriff’s Office was called to six heroin overdoses within the past five days, the office said in a Friday news release.

Of the six overdoses, a brother and sister were saved on Monday with Narcan carried by deputies. Four were unable to be saved.

“All of the overdoses have been from heroin believed to be laced with fentanyl,” the Sheriff’s Office said.

News media & law enforcement are doing a poor job of reporting the key details. “believed to be laced”??? Aren’t the forensic pathologists testing the dead bodies? Most likely they are, but the tests take time and cannot be reported in time for the next news deadline. Oxycontin recycled from grandma’s pill bottles in the bathroom vs. a white powder obtained from a guy just arrived from Milwaukee which may or may not be “heroin” — details matter! But not to the hard core addicts, apparently.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mike
2017-12-01 09:32:03

“Chairman Mao Zandi” “Ho Chi Shiller”
I almost spit out my breakfast

 
Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-01 11:16:24

“it’s also a place where people can fall fast, and far.”

Piling up massive debt on a shack is the fast track to a spectacular fall.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-12-01 08:49:27

Los Angeles, CA 90036 Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY

https://www.zillow.com/los-angeles-ca-90036/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

Comment by CHE
2017-12-01 13:18:47

That can’t be. The LA TeeVee news-stenographers keep telling me prices are “SOARING”

 
 
Comment by JustTheFacts
2017-12-01 08:57:37

I suppose I don’t have anything responsive to this post in particular. Just more generally. I’ve been following this blog for over a year. I’ve been waiting for the bubble to burst. My livelihood actually depends on real estate loans not performing. Commenters have been calling for the “bubble to pop” the entire time I’ve been following this blog. But things seem to just keep getting better. I don’t doubt that someday the economy will tank again — at least to some degree. But I just don’t see it happening anytime soon. Right now is like a perfect storm of good economic news. Even overbuilt multifamily, North Korea, a flattening yield curve and a (mostly) ineffective Republican majority have not dented the wall of optimism on this economy.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-01 09:06:44

If can’t spot the cracks in the wall, then you must not read much here…

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-01 09:12:27

“Recent falls in Sydney prices could continue for months to come as the market finally slams into reverse gear, housing experts claim. Data showed home prices slid down for a third straight month over November, with the market having peaked in July. Four years of ballooning values have been pricked by a combination of tighter bank lending policies, a crackdown on overseas investors, stagnant wage growth and a flood of properties coming onto the market in spring. Where once Sydney sellers could name their price, now agents report they face a battle to attract prospective buyers to open inspections.”

Nothing to worry about for America’s housing bulls, as Australia is working off an entirely different model.

 
Comment by JustTheFacts
2017-12-01 10:20:55

Oh, I know there are cracks. I’m surprised things haven’t come tumbling down yet. I’ve been expecting the fall for two years. But things just keep humming along. It’s a matter of when, not if. But the when seems to keep getting pushed out further and further.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-01 11:11:46

For me what was most dismaying was how quickly the bubble was reinflated. After the previous crash I figured that it would be at least a generation (20 years) before prices would rise again, instead after just a few short years it came roaring back with a vengeance. I suppose that it had to do with the fact that the masses across the globe have been brainwashed into believing that housing is supposed to be utterly unaffordable.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2017-12-01 12:02:02

For me what was most dismaying was how quickly the bubble was reinflated.

If it been allowed to fully pop it wouldn’t have come back so fast. Too many people were prevented from learning their lesson and instead learned to buy the dip…even while walking away from the current place if necessary.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-01 12:21:37

Sit tight because the strategic walkaways are ramping up again.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-12-01 12:23:59

If it been allowed to fully pop it wouldn’t have come back so fast.

How do you define “fully pop” as it relates to home prices?

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-01 12:40:34

There is only definition. Prices fall back to long term historical trend.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-12-01 12:46:21

How do you define “fully pop” as it relates to home prices?

I don’t know what the numbers would have been. But I define it as whatever the numbers would have fallen to (and stayed down at for a while) if they hadn’t dropped interest rates to the floor for years and taken extraordinary measures such as eliminating mark to market accounting. The banks should have had to auction all the foreclosures and go out of business themselves if they went broke in the process. Whatever prices that resulted in.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-01 12:51:09

That would have been the market clearing, not the long term historic trend price. Neither occurred as evidence buy price and the fact the market never cleared 25 million excess, empty and defaulted housing units still out there.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-12-01 13:31:27

And this is where we differ.

Interest rates were reduced, that is true. But the real bottom in housing came when cash buyers stepped up to buy homes on the basis of their rental income.

The suspension of mark to market accounting was only for illiquid assets with an inactive market (like CDO-squared’s). It did NOT allow banks to keep homes on their books at fantasy pricing (there was always an active market for homes).

Low interest rates caused homes prices to rocket up after the bottom was found, but didn’t stop their decline. Fed Funds rate was dropped to %0 in early 2009. Home prices didn’t find their bottom for another 3 years.

When you look at the Shiller data from his Yale website, the inflation-adjusted bottom of his index was approximately 126. The prior bottom was about 112 in the mid-1990’s. The bottom in the prior cycle was about 107 in the early 1980’s. The bottom of the prior cycle was about 101 in the 70’s.

You might say “see, prices should have fallen by yet another 10% to reach their bottom”. Maybe.

But then again, the CPI measure has been monkeyed with via the Boskin Commission post-1995…if you actually had an apples-to-apples CPI pre and post-1995, the latest trough would be a lot closer to the 90’s trough.

As noted though, low interest rates caused home prices to rocket back up much faster than prior cycles…other troughs were “U” shaped…this one was a “V”.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-01 13:53:51

Shiller=garbage in, garbage out

That fact remains that housing prices are 2x-5x long term historical trend.

 
Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-02 06:56:20

“faster than prior cycles…other troughs”

There it is. The familiar this is not a bubble, this is the business cycle.

Normal is not when people borrow sums that can not be paid back in a lifetime for a shack.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-12-01 11:59:32

If you have been reading for a full year already, then you have probably already seen this pearl of financial wisdom posted here once or twice:

“The markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.”

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Comment by Big V
2017-12-01 16:42:00

I recently saw a chart showing the total market capitalization of real estate in the united states from like 1980 until now. Just based on that, combined with the disproportionate amount of bubble money flowing into the stock market instead of real estate, I am estimating that this bubble will last for 1.5-3 years from now. So that means it would start to go south in mid 2019 to 2020.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-01 09:07:48

A year? How about the old line, “you guys have been saying this bubble would pop for 10 YEARS!”

December 2, 2007

People Are Taking Their Time Looking – Because They Can

The Winchester Star reports from Virginia. “Residential permits in Frederick County fell by 30 percent, from 1,975 in FY 2006 to 1,379 in FY 2007, according to county data. In Clarke, the residential drop was more severe, with permits plunging 58 percent, from 125 to 52. The reason for the numbers is fairly simple. ‘That’s just the national trend being reflected here locally,’ said Clarke County Planning Administrator Charles Johnston.”

“‘There are a lot of factors involved, the most important one being that the market for new housing is stagnant,’ said Ellen Murphy, Frederick County commissioner of the revenue.”

“‘People are finding it hard to sell the homes they have and they’re experiencing financial trouble,’ she said. ‘We’re seeing a record number of foreclosures and repossessions and that has thrown a scare into the market. People are now looking at trying to buy some of these homes for a bargain price, so there’s not a big market for new homes.’”

The Herald Mail from Maryland. “The home construction industry in Washington County has pretty much fallen through the floor over the past two years. From January to September 2005, permits were issued to build 1,163 homes, according to figures from the Hagerstown and Washington County building permits offices.”

“In the same period this year, the figures show, builders got permits for just 360 houses. That’s a 70 percent drop.”

“‘Three years ago was good, and two years ago it went to hell. And this year, further hell,’ said Carl Gallahan, manager of Sellmore Industries’ building materials distribution business in Hagerstown. ‘And not little changes, either. This year, it fell off the cliff,’ Gallahan said.”

“Many people who have borrowed against the value of their homes are seeing it drop. And among those still looking to buy is worry that the price they pay today won’t hold up tomorrow.”

“‘There’s no buyer confidence out there. It’s very low,’ said Dennis Swope, VP of Home Construction Corp. of Hagerstown.”

“‘Used to be, you’d put an existing house up for sale and it would go, and it was selling for more than it was listed, and this was just two or three years ago,’ Swope said. ‘And customers for new homes weren’t asking for discounts. Today, they’re asking for discounts.’”

“For Hagerstown Block Co. ‘has been a little bit slow,’ Plant Manager Bret Sprecher said. ‘We’re down some. We’re kind of thinking this year’s going to be worse.’”

“The negative effect ‘trickles right down. It’s like you have a lot of homebuilders out there used to do 150 homes. Now they’re doing like maybe 20, maybe 30. They employ a lot of electricians, framers, plumbers,’ who now have had to find home-improvement jobs,’ Gallahan said. Some local contractors, whom he declined to name, have been forced out of business.”

“He said he worries about builders who have money tied up in houses they built on speculation as models or as inventory. ‘That’s a lot of money sitting there that a lot of builders aren’t closing on,’ Gallahan said.”

“Another problem for homegrown contractors arose a few years ago when national builders, following the market out to the suburbs, came here with city-sized budgets.”

“‘We had a kick in the pocket two years ago when land prices went crazy,’ Swope said. ‘Lots that were selling for $40,000 to $50,000 all of a sudden went to $90,000 or $100,000. Mostly that was caused by the large builders coming to town and paying astronomical prices. And now that things have slowed down, it has caused a correction in the market.’”

“But landowners have been reluctant to accept lower prices. So, local builders said, they have been largely shut out of the local market for large properties for housing developments. ‘Today, I cannot afford to go out and buy tracts of land. You have to have deep pockets to do that,’ said Swope, who has been with Home Construction since 1969.”

“Worsening the situation, builders said, is that the large developers who have been coming here are reacting to the national economic slowdown by offering deep discounts on some houses.”

“This adds to consumers’ uncertainty over value throughout the county, said Tim Fields, president of the Homebuilders Association of Washington County. ‘When there’s a full-page ad offering $40,000 worth of discounts if you buy this weekend, that certainly introduces doubt.’”

“Swope said the situation would not improve ‘until the buyer realizes prices have stabilized and aren’t going to go lower.’”

The Record from New Jersey. “Where are the buyers? Many are holding back, hoping to get a better deal if, as some economists predict, home prices continue to slide in 2008.”

“‘An atmosphere has been created that says, ‘Wait and see, maybe you’ll get a better deal next spring,’ said broker Honor Noreen Kremer in Leonia. ‘I don’t have one customer at this point ready to put an offer in on anything. I’m not sure, even if I found them the right thing, if they’re ready to make an offer.’”

“‘People are really taking their time looking – because they can,’ said Diane Stroud, an agent in Allendale.”

“‘Everybody wants a steal,’ said Nafi Sela, a real estate agent in Wayne. ‘If something is listed at $300,000, they want it for $200,000.’”

“Jeana Cowie of Re/Max in Oradell calls them ‘extreme deal seekers. They’re making incredibly low offers — 40 percent off market value — to see if they can get a steal,’ she said. “If the offer is not accepted, they typically do not increase their offer. They just go on to the next home.’”

“Yildiray Yildirim, a professor of real estate at Syracuse University, said buyer psychology is affected by the stream of negative news about housing.”

“‘Buyers are waiting for a better deal. As a buyer, that’s exactly what I would do,’ he said.”

“In fact, that is what he is doing. He moved to Syracuse from Ithaca, and has been looking for a house for about two years. He has made low offers, but so far, the sellers have turned up their noses at him. He thinks that may change as the months go on and sellers continue paying mortgages and taxes on houses they want to unload.”

“‘It’s the best buying opportunity we’ve seen in a long time,’ said real estate agent Eileen Meehan in Saddle River. ‘Right now, real estate is on sale.’”

“Rhonda Brown, a would-be buyer who lives in Bergen County, said prices haven’t fallen enough to make North Jersey affordable to middle-income workers. She has been looking for a town house for less than $300,000, but has not had much luck.”

“‘If it was so much of a buyer’s market, I would have bought a long time ago,’ said Brown. She plans to keep looking, save more money for a down payment and hope that prices will decline in 2008.”

“‘Those are the only three things I can do,’ she said.”

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=3812

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-01 09:08:54

December 2, 2007

This Collapse Was Based On Psychology

The Chicago Tribune reports from Illinois. “As soon as Trump International Hotel & Tower, the city’s first new-construction condo-hotel, gets a city permit to begin its phased opening, developer Donald Trump will find out for sure whether Midwesterners and others are willing to fork over megabucks to buy a pad in his luxury inn. The flamboyant salesman is aiming to ink sales at a time when the residential real estate market is plummeting and the once-hot condo-hotel trend continues to chill.”

“The project’s condo-hotel room sales took off smartly three years ago but have flattened more recently. ‘The market in Chicago is dead as a doornail right now, as is the rest of the country, other than Manhattan or Palm Beach, Fla.,’ Trump said, blaming the nationwide credit crunch. ‘But that will change…and if credit becomes available again, that will help.’”

“There has been some dramatic cratering in the condo-hotel market. ‘I know of one [condo-hotel] project in South Florida that…was supposed to have been two-thirds sold out but when it opened in July with 158 units, they had seven closings,’ said Karen Johnson, of Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels.”

“Individuals buy these units, and place them in a rental pool when they are not using them, to generate income. A Jones Lang LaSalle study found that generally these are not income-producing investments, Johnson said, adding that the potential payoff is all tied to appreciation.”

“‘So if we’re entering a period where values are going to be flat, or God forbid, declining … it’s a whole ‘nother story,’ she said.”

“‘You need to approach it with second-home economics in mind, that ‘I’ll write a lot of checks, I’ll hold it until I’m empty-nesting, and then I’ll sell it,’ she said.”

“Mark Eble, VP/Midwest for a hospitality advisory firm, ‘it still remains to be seen whether investors would’ve been better off buying T-bills or mutual funds.’”

The Business Weekly from Indiana. “Potential owners of Harrison Square condominiums were expected to begin reserving spots at prices that were in line with a failed downtown condo project. Depending on the floorplan, asking prices will range from the $150,000s to the low $300,000s, said Mike Brita of the firm handling sales at The Harrison.”

“Brita said the prices more or less were set by Atlanta-based developer Barry Real Estate Cos. and likely are fixed. They were based on what was needed to recoup construction and other costs, he said.”

“Those involved with the project are trying not to scare buyers away with the prices, Brita said. ‘This is unique,’ he said. ‘It’s something we struggled with because there was nothing to compare it to.’”

“‘I don’t think (The Harrison’s prices are) way off,’ said commercial property owner Bill Bean. ‘There is some interest out there. I just don’t know how deep the interest is.’”

The Journal Sentinel from Wisconsin. “For commercial real estate developers who are seeking financing for their projects, this holiday season doesn’t look a lot like Christmas. Developers of projects costing $100 million and higher are finding it very difficult to obtain loans, said Marty Collins, CEO at Dallas-based Gatehouse Capital Corp., which is planning a 20-story project in downtown Milwaukee’s Park East area.”

“‘That market is closed,’ Collins said.”

“Gatehouse and its local partner, Ruvin Development Inc. are pursuing plans to build a 180-room Kimpton Palomar Hotel, along with offices, 70 condominiums, retail space and a parking structure. But the project is among several proposed Milwaukee-area developments that may need to jump through higher hoops brandished by lenders.”

“Chicago-area developer Warren Barr, say the media has overstated the subprime problems, which has made it more difficult to attract condo buyers.”

“‘It makes a lot of buyers sit on the sidelines,’ Barr said.”

The Burnett County Sentinel from Wisconsin. “The number of foreclosures filed with the Burnett County Clerk of Court’s office is already at 91 for the year, with four weeks left to go. That number is up from 75 and 77 for 2006 and 2005 respectively, is up from 51 in 2004 and marks a huge jump from the 38 filed in 2002.”

“A glance at the legal section of this or any other newspaper and the reader would see several foreclosure notices posted each week. And it’s not just Burnett County.”

“‘I heard the St. Croix County Clerk of Courts office had to hire a temp just to handle all the foreclosures,’ Burnett County Clerk of Court Trudy Schmidt said.”

“‘I’ve been in the mortgage business for three and a half years and this is the worst I’ve seen it,’ Judd Danielson of Freedom Foreclosure Prevention Services in Luck said of the foreclosure market. ‘I have brokers calling me who have 35 to 40 years in the business and they are saying the same thing.’”

“‘The ARM starts at five or six percent, but then after three to five years the rate adjusts upward to 10 or 11 percent, and I’ve seen it as high as 18 percent, but the borrowers are not adjusting their income levels,’ Danielson explained. ‘A lot of these people bit off more than they could chew.’”

The Pioneer Press from Minnesota. “Homer Tompkins’ development company, Contractor Property Developers Co., has entered into a voluntary mortgage foreclosure agreement with MI Bank in Minneapolis related to 50 developed single-family lots and 129 undeveloped lots at a high-end development called Inspiration, Tompkins said.”

“The company owes the bank more than $9 million on the original loan of $14.65 million, according to documents filed this month with the Washington County recorder’s office. The lots are headed for a sheriff’s foreclosure auction in Stillwater next month, Tompkins said.”

“City officials say 28 custom homes, 15 of which are occupied, have been built at the upscale 242-acre project that opened just as the housing market began its downward slide. Home prices ranged from the upper $300,000s to $800,000.”

“Tompkins blamed the slow sales on bad timing. ‘We’re in the greatest housing slump since the Great Depression,’ he said. ‘Consumers don’t have confidence in buying houses in today’s market. There are hundreds of these (voluntary foreclosure) agreements in process. I’m just one of them.’”

“Every time Mark Gergen heard it, he wanted to scream. This time, it came from a couple who looked like perfect customers, ready to buy a new $725,000 home. They had the money. They loved the house. It was all so simple, but then…’Is it the right time? We are just now, nervously, getting off the fence,’ the woman said. ‘It’s the news. It’s all so unstable.’”

“They left. Gergen sighed. He felt powerless against the onslaught of headlines and bad news that frightened customers away. ‘It’s that consumer confidence thing,’ he said, standing in an empty kitchen.”

“As a hotshot real estate salesman, he was called in to help revive a planned $1.2 billion development, the Spirit of Brandtjen Farms in Lakeville.”

“The 15-year project, which broke ground in 2004, was supposed to build 2,100 homes. But developers watched in horror last year as the entire operation ground to a halt, with only a handful of homes purchased.”

“In 2004, no one worried about consumer confidence. The market was booming, and home sellers laughed in disbelief as buyers rushed to bid against each other, pushing prices ever higher.”

“Then the market collapsed. It had nothing to do with the usual villains - high interest rates, lost jobs or falling wages. This collapse was based on psychology.”

“Tradition called on Gergen to help sell homes. When he saw the Spirit site, the project’s biggest flaw jumped out at him. It was the homes themselves. In the go-go years, three high-end custom builders had erected model homes as a gateway to the project. They were unique farm-inspired mansions. They cost up to $925,000.”

“They were impressive. But for homebuyers, there might as well have been a flashing sign reading ‘for millionaires only.’”

“It almost was impossible to show buyers a $900,000 home, then sell them a $500,000 home they could afford, said project manager Rob Wachholz. ‘There is a limited opportunity to sell $450,000-to-$500,000 homes. And when you get to $800,000 to $900,000, you are in some pretty rarified air,’ Wachholz said.”

“Gergen toured the models with potential customers. Afterward, he asked which one they’d choose, if money were no object. The favorite - none of the above. Instead, they picked a town house.”

“‘I said: ‘You’re kidding. You just went through 10 houses for $700,000 to $950,000, and you picked this? Why?’ said Gergen. The answers: Higher ceilings and more ‘wow’ appeal. ‘That told me a lot,’ Gergen said.”

“Once Tradition realized its mistake, the backpedaling was furious. The entire company refocused on one goal: Building less expensive houses that would still fit the luxury theme of the project. It wouldn’t be easy. The lots alone cost $139,000 to $257,000.”

“‘Who wants to buy a $400,000 small house?’ asked Don Nelson, of American Classic Homes, one of the Spirit homebuilders.”

“‘I just can’t build a $500,000 home,’ sighed Cudd saleswoman Kim Holmberg at another meeting. ‘Now, $2 million homes’ - she looked dreamily into the distance - ‘I can build those all-l-l-l-l day.’”

“The houses tweaked, the prices reduced, Tradition turned to the sales force itself. After sitting alone in model homes for months, who could blame them for being depressed? Yet the veterans knew no one would buy a house from a sulking salesperson.”

“At one meeting at Spirit’s clubhouse-barn, Charles Cudd salesman Tom Griffith addressed the group: ‘We have to be incredibly positive, regardless of how negative things are.’ In case anyone missed his point, he added: ‘Positive, positive, positive!’”

“As the Parade of Homes continued, Gergen and Gergen associate Julie VanDerostyne proved adept at getting names and phone numbers from potential customers. VanDerostyne asked one woman for her e-mail address. ‘Um, I dunno,’ said the woman.”

“‘We have social events,’ VanDerostyne said. ‘Um, I dunno.’”

“‘With free wine.’ Pause. ‘OK,’ the woman said.”

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=3813

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-01 09:09:58

December 2, 2007

The Tables Have Turned In California

The Desert Sun reports from California. “With sales of existing homes in 2007 expected to match the 2002 national sales record, REALTORS still must educate the public about the value of real estate as a long-term investment instead of a get-in and get-out stock strategy. That was among the key messages at the recent National Association of Realtors’ Conference and Expo in Las Vegas, said Emily DiSimone, president of the California Desert Association of REALTORS.”

“‘Housing continues to be a good long-term investment,’ DiSimone said. ‘Real estate is alive and well in the Coachella Valley and there are plenty of opportunities for consumers and REALTORS in the current market.’”

“Jose Miralla, who lives in Beaumont, is already three months behind on the mortgage on his four-bedroom house. His troubles began on closing day, when he was presented with a higher interest rate than he expected. With a credit score of 670…Miralla says he could have qualified for a better rate. But he accepted the subprime rate for fear of forfeiting a $5,000 security deposit.”

“Miralla, who sells home alarm systems and works on commission, figured he could make the payments although money would be tight. But his sales figures slipped. A newlywed, he now wishes he’d backed out of the deal.”

“‘All the dreams we had to be together, to have a life together have just been ruined,’ he said.”

“As foreclosure rates climb, so has the number of homes available for purchase, said Greg Berkemer, director of the California Desert Association of Realtors. ‘There is more inventory than there is demand today,’ he said, noting about 9,000 homes are for sale in the desert.”

“The median price of a home in Palm Springs is about $346,000, an 8 percent decrease from the previous month, according to the association.”

The Recordnet. “When Jenny and Ricardo Hernandez bought their north Stockton home in 2005, their monthly mortgage payments were around $1,800. Now the payments total nearly $3,000 - more than the working couple’s monthly net income - and the Hernandez family is facing almost inevitable foreclosure.”

“‘We can’t go back and change what we’ve done,’ Jenny Hernandez said. ‘But we need to do whatever we can do now.’”

“‘They’re supposed to be the experts, and they’re making money to represent you,’ said Carol Ornelas, the CEO of a Stockton-based nonprofit that builds housing for low-income families. ‘Realtors and lenders have a fiduciary responsibility to their clients. That’s Real Estate 101.’”

The Sacramento Bee. “For Stephen Cook and Georgia Turner of West Sacramento, the trauma from losing the single-story house on Tacoma Narrows Street last spring remains all too real today.”

“‘Sacramento just means sadness to me,’ Turner says, crying at a coffee shop before leaving town. ‘Whenever I look at a house now I see an albatross.’”

“‘I just wanted to own a home,’ says Andrea Eddy, who lives in Trinity County now, a four-hour drive from the capital. ‘I thought everything was perfect with my husband and our jobs and our daughter, and that a house was the next step.’”

“A year after losing her new light-brown two-story home at Southport’s Huckleberry Circle, she says, ‘I just wish we never would have bought.’”

“‘It’s been hard,’ says Andrea Eddy in Weaverville, where her family of three now rents from her father. ‘I feel everything we worked for to that point is totally destroyed. Now we’re trying to work our way back up and keep our heads afloat.’”

“Eddy and her husband, Christopher, walked away from their West Sacramento house in December 2006 because everything they banked on – rising home values, ability to refinance an expensive and risky subprime loan within two years and uninterrupted incomes – went wrong.”

“The new $337,000 house they bought in May 2006 lost value from the day they moved in. (It’s for sale now for $255,000. Nine more homes nearby are also for sale). One state government salary couldn’t make the $3,000 monthly payments when Christopher lost work. Neither could the Eddys sell as newer neighborhoods such as theirs slumped across the capital region.”

“Seven months after buying their first house, they were renters again. ‘We just got our credit better and now it’s shot,’ she says.”

The San Francisco Chronicle. “The 5 1/2 weeks between Thanksgiving and New Year’s used to be a time for agents, brokers and others in the real estate industry - at least the ones who have had a good year - to pack their bags and head to the Caribbean. The thing is, this hasn’t been a very good year.”

“‘The sellers who are on the market now really do need, in fact, to sell,’ said Frank Cannella, branch manager for Prudential California Realty in Pleasanton. ‘Sellers don’t go through the hassle of having their homes on the market during the holidays to test the market. There is more sincerity on the seller side.’”

“Earl Rozran, a Prudential agent…is working with a client in San Leandro to get his home on the market in the next week or so. ‘We talked a lot about whether to wait until the first quarter,’ Rozran said. ‘We’ve seen a lot of foreclosures and short sales and in some respects some pretty desperate sellers and my own gut feeling is that will increase considerably in 2008.’”

The Orange County Register. “Martha Baker-Jordan had hoped to sell her four-bedroom home in Placentia by now. But after 90 days on the market, only about three people have even bothered to come see it.”

“So when her real estate listing agreement expired last week, she dropped her price and signed up to keep the home on the market right through the holidays. ‘I really want to move. I really want to downsize,’ Baker-Jordan said of her decision to persevere through the holidays. ‘I’m tired of the maintenance. I’m tired of taking care of the pool.’”

“Buyers traditionally take time off from home shopping as well, devoting more time to gift shopping instead. This year is no different, several local real estate agents said, except that many sellers have no choice but to keep their homes on the market.”

“As a result, the number of Orange County home sellers this holiday season is the highest it’s been in at least a decade, said Steven Thomas, an Aliso Viejo broker. There were 16,803 homes for sale in Orange County as of Tuesday, Thomas said. That’s 3,200 more than this time last year and double the number in 2005.”

“Not everyone is staying on the market. About 500 sellers took their homes off the market in the last two weeks, with about 50 sellers leaving the market every day, Thomas said. But the number of listings remains high because fewer homes are selling.”

“Rich Cosner, president of a Prudential California Realtychain in Orange County and the Inland Empire, believes that it’s smart for sellers to keep their homes on the market through the holidays. The buyers you see from Thanksgiving to Christmas are the most serious ones, he said. And chances are that sellers will have to sell for less if they wait until next year.”

“‘There’s a huge number of foreclosures down the road,’ he said. ‘Because of these foreclosures, I think (prices will) get less and less every month.’”

“There is an axiom of California politics that no issue is too large or too complex that state lawmakers can’t react to it, late, and with ineptitude. The veracity of this was illustrated again Thursday.”

“For about an hour, speaker after speaker rhetorically wrung their hands and recited a litany of woes about the situation. The legislators trotted out two ‘victims’ of the meltdown, who told parts of their stories about losing their homes to foreclosure.”

“It turned out one of them apparently hadn’t read the fine print on the adjustable rate mortgages she signed, and the other – who actually owned two houses and was renting one – got into trouble when much higher payments started on one of his mortgages.”

“Not a single speaker suggested that perhaps at least part of this problem has been caused by people who knowingly took on a bigger mortgage than they could afford, and gambled that higher housing prices would bail them out by letting them sell for a profit before their mortgage’s interest rates climbed.”

“Or that some people are dumber than stumps, and signed a legal document without even inquiring what it obligated them to do.”

“I’m in no way suggesting that there aren’t hundreds or even thousands of people who were conned into bad mortgages by slimy lenders, or that people who lost jobs or spouses got slammed when housing prices dropped while their mortgage payments went up.”

“But for legislators to show up on this issue in late November isn’t just an example of closing the barn door after the horse is gone. It’s more like they’re trying to build a new barn door while the horse has been running around for weeks, pooping on the neighbors’ lawns.”

“And one doesn’t have to be overly cynical to suggest that their call for a special session on the issue is based in part on a desire to have something to trot out in front of voters before they ask them to extend their terms in office at the Feb. 5 election.”

The Modesto Bee. “The housing slump has a silver lining for public agencies, which are finding a glut of private contractors looking for work and dropping their prices. And the competition equates to lower bids.”

“‘What is essentially happening is that there is no real construction for housing development right now so these contractors don’t have a lot to do, and so they are bidding pretty tight to get these jobs,’ said Pete Martin, senior civil engineer for San Joaquin County’s public works department. ‘It is not good for the industry, but it is good for us, at least temporarily. We get a lot for our money, and there is nothing wrong with that.’”

“Martin said if prices stay low through the year, the savings might be enough to pay for another project.”

“The tables have turned. For the last several years, builders have had the upper hand in price negotiation. The lowest bids regularly came in above engineers’ estimates as municipal projects competed with work on residential subdivisions and prices surged for materials — particularly steel. They have since leveled off and even dropped.”

“‘This represents a great opportunity for taxpayers, while the cost of labor and materials is lower, to push projects out the door because, obviously, the taxpayers will get more bang for their dollar,’ said Steve Madison, executive VP of the Building Industry Association of Central California.”

“‘And that will help the local construction economy because while the home building sector was the leader, we are not the leader right now. And if the other sectors of construction can be more involved, that will help the economy,’ he said.”

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=3814

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-01 09:16:43

‘everything they banked on – rising home values, ability to refinance an expensive and risky subprime loan within two years and uninterrupted incomes – went wrong…Seven months after buying their first house, they were renters again. ‘We just got our credit better and now it’s shot’

Well it was cheaper than renting. You were counting on everything being rosy forever. My experience is such fortune is rather rare.

 
Comment by oxide
2017-12-01 10:31:31

Ben, since when is $3000/month “cheaper than renting” a $317K house?

Anyway, a $317K house should not be $3000/month. It should be around $1800. I wonder what their interest rate was.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-01 10:35:37

Because most mortgages are subprime, the payment is 2,300. Stack on taxes, insurance and depreciation you’re well over $4000 a month and lights aren’t even turned on yet.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-01 10:47:15

I’m just using the buzz phrase. You know, cash in the trash, throwing money away. Never balances the risk involved but it’s sold as solid logic.

Notice the familiar “everything was going great until…”

 
Comment by redmondjp
2017-12-01 12:04:22

Stop with your fake news there HA, making up numbers again - well over $4K/month? No way, no how. My coworker just bought a house in that price range and he’s not paying half of that. And not sub-prime either.

 
Comment by oxide
2017-12-01 12:09:15

OK Ben. I’m stuck on this because phrase one reason I bought my house was because “it was cheaper than renting.” I thought you were mocking me.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-01 12:18:26

I wouldn’t do that.

 
Comment by oxide
2017-12-01 13:47:15

Oh no, not at all. :mrgreen:

 
Comment by SFMF
2017-12-01 14:44:25

Paul Krugman predicted a recession 8/8 Bush years. On the 8th try he was right. Predict a crash will come every year and eventually you will be right.

 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-12-01 09:15:58

“The flamboyant salesman is aiming to ink sales at a time when the residential real estate market is plummeting and the once-hot condo-hotel trend continues to chill.”

“The project’s condo-hotel room sales took off smartly three years ago but have flattened more recently. ‘The market in Chicago is dead as a doornail right now, as is the rest of the country, other than Manhattan or Palm Beach, Fla.,’ Trump said, blaming the nationwide credit crunch. ‘But that will change…and if credit becomes available again, that will help.’”

I’d love to see a follow-up article on how this prediction turned out.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-01 09:19:35

“I’ve been following this blog for over a year.”

;)

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-01 10:41:47

Realtors are liars.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-01 11:21:08

“Former Realtor Accused Of Stealing Thousands Of Dollars From Clients”

http://wsvn.com/news/special-reports/former-realtor-accused-of-stealing-thousands-of-dollars-from-clients/

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Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-01 13:39:56

” I’ve been following this blog for over a year.”

The theme of Ben’s blog is the housing bubble. We’re watching him document the biggest housing bubble/credit expansion in the history of mankind. It’s been an entire lifetime in the making. If you appreciated how big and how extensive this is your attention span might be longer.

 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-01 09:00:33

“Karina and Juan Santillan bought their home, a single-story bungalow in West Covina, 20 miles east of Los Angeles, for $152,000 in 1999.”

So far so good.

“In retrospect, refinancing their home was a bad idea.”

Oops.

“But the Santillan family never thought that it would lead them to foreclosure, or that they’d spend years bouncing among hotels and living in their car.”

“Never thought” = the operating phrase.

“A few years after they bought their home, the Santillans say, people started knocking on their door selling financial products. It was easy money, …”

It was stupid money.

“Santillans refinanced their home in 2003.”

“… they took out an additional mortgage in 2004, …”

“They refinanced again in 2004.”

“… they refinanced one more time, in 2005, borrowing $396,000 from New Century Financial Corp., which would itself file for bankruptcy two years later.”

My favorite part: “At the time, their house worth less than $300,000, according to Zillow.”

Bahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

There it is folks, a nation of dummies.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-01 09:06:21

…… and

“While America prides itself on being a place where people can climb up the economic ladder, it’s also a place where people can fall fast, and far.”

When you’re paying multiples of construction cost, $50/sqft for lot, labor, materials and profit for a rapidly depreciating asset like a house, you’re climbing into a hole from which you’ll never climb out of.

A nation of DebtDonkeys.

 
Comment by butters
2017-12-01 10:14:53

Who’s going to protect Amerikkans’ right to use their homes as ATM?

BernaQE
Yellon the Fellon
Powell the Lawyer (still working on his nickname)

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-01 11:30:29

I’m hope he bought a cool “troka” with the money, maybe even an F-350 with a diesel engine.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-12-01 17:16:15

My first question: Where did the money go?

I have a friend who ATM’d his house to death, but actually got out just as the last bubble started collapsing. His was a tale of living above the means of his family, and then he ultimately lost his job entirely. I would get weekly updates about the sale of his house, and how his equity line was running out. He was sweating bullets. He ended up pocketing like $25k or something, after everything was said and done.

Fast forward 5 years (2012) and his economic situation had vastly improved. What did he do? He went right out and bought another huge house. He’s actually doing fairly well now, though.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-01 20:27:31

“My first question: Where did the money go?”

Er, China?

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Comment by oxide
2017-12-01 12:13:22

Does remodeling make the home more valuable? Always.
Does the rise in value make offset the cost of the remodel? Never.

 
Comment by goedeck
2017-12-01 16:15:52

Remember those ads (Ditech?): “People are smart.”

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-01 09:40:08

‘Sarasota belongs on the list of places with millionaire homeowners, and the high-end housing market here is on a hot streak. At the peak of the luxury market pricing potential buyers will find some price cuts. One of the listings of Saunders Realtor Kim Ogilvie rests on a scenic spot on Casey Key with panoramic views of both the Gulf of Mexico and Blackburn Bay. The asking price now has fallen almost a $1 million — to a shade under $8 million.’

This article is a classic example of having to read between the lines. I’d bet 99% of people who scan it would come away thinking, golly I better hurry up and buy something. But if you scrutinize it, this market is full of price reductions. The good old Herald Tribune. You guys are usually pretty honest, but I realize you have bills to pay.

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2017-12-02 15:15:39

The barrier islands near Sarasota with their homes and high-rises, defy explanation. Canal home backyard lawns are 18 inches above high-tide. There is no discussion about tidal surges arising from intensified storms. Longboat is immune to loss. It only worries about beach erosion and its near yearly replacement/replenishment. Beauty has no price, but, what is twenty million dollars when you have deep pockets?
On a bright windy day a driver leaving the island can see the beauty of ocean waves crashing over seawalls onto perfectly manicured and fertilized lawns. We have been captivated by these waves on numerous occasions.
Eighteen inches above high-tide.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2017-12-01 09:41:18

Something’s going on. In recent weeks, we’ve been experiencing some booming and thudding sounds, followed by rumbling that sounds like earth moving equipment. I thought it was blasting for development, but no, nothing going on like that. Some earth moving in the area, but nothing major that would cause the house to shake. I’ve been told it is Air Force maneuvers out over the Gulf. Anyone know anything about this?

I really do think China is up to something, using NK as a proxy.

Comment by butters
2017-12-01 10:39:39

Shhhh…Chinese and Noko comrades in your backyard right now…..Go and get them!

Comment by palmetto
2017-12-01 11:06:12

How’s that chaperone business going? You could be set for life!

In other news, Kim is preparing to let another fart. Eff the Chinese and anyone who ever co-operated with them.

 
 
Comment by junior_kai
2017-12-01 13:13:41

Did a chipotle just open up in your area? :)

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-12-01 10:44:05

Brandon, FL Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/brandon-fl/market-trends/

 
Comment by palmetto
2017-12-01 11:16:07

Statement from James Comey:

“But justice roll down like waters and righteousness like an ever-flowing stream” Amos 5:24 https://www.instagram.com/p/BcKtEUUg4Qa/

Stark, staring psycho. Somebody call the men in the white coats.

OTOH, it’s healthy for the people to actually see the type of people who run and have run this country, with their insanity on full display.

Comment by 2banana
2017-12-01 11:28:20

“Since when is lying to the FBI a crime?” – Hillary Clinton.

Comment by palmetto
2017-12-01 12:13:08

Did she really say that, or are we just attributing it to her as a sentiment?

Is it a crime to lie to a criminal organization or one of its representatives?

We don’t need to go abroad to find enemies, that’s for sure. Washington is one massive crime scene, and that’s where the enemies are. It’s laughable to have a “special prosecutor” who actually did engage in collusion with Russia (Uranium One and the Clintons) investigating people who didn’t.

Comment by tresho
2017-12-01 16:25:25

Washington is one massive crime scene, and that’s where the enemies are
Obi Wan Kenobi said it best: “a wretched hive of scum and villainy” No longer science fiction.

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Comment by SFMF
2017-12-01 14:47:48

Trump is finished. For real this time. I mean it. Seriously.
- Every single day since June 2015

Comment by palmetto
2017-12-01 17:37:57

LOL, Trump always wins. Even when he loses, he wins. This indictment of Flynn actually demonstrates that there was no Russian collusion during the campaign, which is what the grand inquisitor is supposed to be investigating. Both Russian contacts, about which Flynn lied, occurred during the transition, not the election. And one of them appears to be more like collusion with Israel than Russia.

It may well be what some are saying, that Flynn had to plead guilty to something in order to save his son, who isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed, and very likely did something really, really stoopit.

Comment by junior_kai
2017-12-01 18:44:16

I have a new theory about Kapernik/NFL/BLM and Soros. Say Soros set up BLM as a way to disrupt/color revolution but also to bring in money. This is where take a knee comes in - NFL just paid a ton of money to BLM to make them go away - shake down money. So is Kapernick and other kneelers on Soros’ payroll? Cui bono?

Nothing surprises me anymore. Maybe those 1000s of unsealed indictments will reveal more about this.

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Comment by palmetto
2017-12-01 19:56:47

Even when Trump loses, he wins…wait, what’s this? ABC retracts their Flynn story?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-01/abc-makes-epic-mistake-retracts-bombshell-flynn-story

Can’t WAIT for the Fake News tweets!

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Comment by palmetto
2017-12-01 22:30:11

It gets better! Looks like ABC and Brian Ross may have a little “market manipulation” problem. Tsk, tsk.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Sean
2017-12-01 11:44:12

Any word on the Mortgage Interest Deduction? Did they move it or is it still at $500K in the final bill?

I did a quick search on Twitter but, ya know……Twitter….

Comment by oxide
2017-12-01 12:52:44

Nothing on the MID. The latest is that the Senate agreed on a $10K ceiling for the SALT deduction, to match the House bill.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-01 13:45:27

A colleague at the Santa Clara site pays way more that 10K on SALT. He told me that he’s not happy about this. Then again, he and wifey make about 300K+ combined.

Comment by MacBeth
2017-12-01 14:41:16

Do me a favor.

Tell them that I don’t give a flying f that they are unhappy about it.

Perhaps we should make the removal of SALT deductions retroactive for 10 years instead? Let him pay an additional $100K+ in taxes RIGHT NOW for 10 years of deductions.

Your colleague has a lot of nerve being unhappy.

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Comment by SFMF
2017-12-01 14:48:58

The real final bill will be when the house and senate get together and come up with a unified bill. My prediction

MID at $750K
SALT limit of $20K

Comment by butters
2017-12-01 15:15:04

My prediction no change. Corps and ‘investment class’ will be the main beneficiary. If labor is your only income, you will pay more.

 
 
 
Comment by rj not in chicago anymore
2017-12-01 12:15:56

Ben:
This link from Mark Hanson recent post. Substantiates all of what you have been saying recently re homebuyer affordability and attendant issues.

https://www.mhanson.com/11-27-hanson-2008-angelo-mozzilo-said-never-seen-soft-landing/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MarkHansonAdvisers+%28Mark+Hanson+Advisors%29

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-01 12:36:19

I remember that:

July 26, 2006

‘I’ve Never Seen A Soft Landing In 53 Years’: CEO

Some housing bubble reports from Wall Street and Washington. “Downward momentum in the U.S. housing market is leading some of America’s biggest mortgage lenders to launch new cost cuts and risk reduction strategies that suggest growing concern that the outlook is worsening for the $9.5 trillion home mortgage industry.”

“‘I’ve never seen a soft-landing in 53 years, so we have a ways to go before this levels out,’ Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo said on a Tuesday conference call. ‘I have to prepare the company for the worst that can happen.’”

“At New Century, one of the nation’s biggest subprime lenders, CEO Brad Morrice told Reuters the company has tightened some credit requirements as it puts ‘more thought into loans you want to make or don’t want to make.’”

The Union Tribune. “An avalanche of investors paying top dollar to buy office buildings, San Diego’s commercial real estate market may be showing signs of slowing. GreenPoint Mortgage vacated 110,000 square feet on Willow Creek Road along the I-15 corridor. And Capital One is leaving several floors in the First National Bank tower downtown.”

From MarketWatch. “Pulte Homes announced today net new home orders for the quarter were 9,455 homes, which represent declines of 30% and 29%, respectively, from prior year second-quarter results. ‘Our second quarter results reflect the changing dynamics being experienced in the homebuilding industry,’ said Richard Dugas, Jr., CEO.”

“‘The supply of homes for sale continues to increase, while greater buyer uncertainty about purchasing a home at this time is being further impacted by their inability to sell existing homes and the effect higher prices and interest rates are having on overall affordability,’ Dugas said.”

“Meritage Homes today announced second-quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2006. ‘Demand from investors and speculative buyers has decreased dramatically; inventories are up; and price concessions have increased. These conditions make it more difficult for our buyers to sell their existing homes, resulting in higher order cancellations. While gross orders for the second quarter of 2006 were down 17% compared to the previous year’s quarter, higher cancellation rates reduced net orders by 28% for the same period,’ said CEO Steven Hilton.”

“For the first time in more than a decade, home prices could start to fall around the country in coming months, the NAR said Tuesday. David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said he expects ‘price numbers to start deteriorating.’”

“On Thursday, the Commerce Department will report new-home sales for June, and economists such as Phillip Neuhart of Wachovia expect those figures, too, to show continuing weakness. ‘The numbers are not fully counting cancellations, which builders are reporting at a very high level,’ Neuhart said.”

From Bloomberg. “The National Association of Homebuilders ‘believes that the Federal Reserve has been relying on deficient inflation measures to rationalize the interest rate hikes that have been taking a serious toll on the housing sector,’ Joseph M. Stanton, the association’s chief lobbyist, wrote.”

“‘Ironically, much of the recent increase in `core’ consumer price inflation that the Federal Reserve is trying to control with higher interest rates is coming from a weakening housing market, which is increasing the demand for rental units. That translates into a sizeable increase in the large `owners’ equivalent rent’ components of the core inflation measures,’ Stanton said.”

“‘Fighting an increase in core inflation stemming from this component is an inappropriate use of monetary policy, since tighter policy will cause rents to rise further and put additional upward pressure on the core inflation measures,’ he argued.”

“Tens of thousands of new and existing condo units are on the market, and thousands more are under construction. In other instances, some older apartment complexes, which were to be converted to condos, will be renovated and remain on the rental market.”

“The Commerce Department reported yesterday that the number of unsold homes on the market rose to 3.725 million units, almost 40 percent more than a year earlier. ‘This implies that we are only at an early stage of home sale problems,’ economist Ken Mayland told his clients. ‘At some point along the way, prices could crack big time.’”

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=1134

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-12-01 12:56:44

In 2009 we never landed, we just buzzed the tower at full throttle Top-Gun style :-).

 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-12-01 13:01:29

But, when this bubble fails there is a lot of air under there because the downside was established in 2010.

Like I said, everyone is well trained now…it can’t possibly be worse than 2010 so you might as well buy the dip.

Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-01 13:45:39

Those who were properly schooled did not participate in the sucker’s rally and will not catch a falling knife.

 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-12-01 12:27:14

Denver, CO 80202 Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY

https://www.zillow.com/denver-co-80202/home-values/

Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-01 13:55:14

That’s downtown, I don’t think there’s a single SFH in the area.

But there are a ton of brand new, overpriced air boxes.

I interviewed for a couple of jobs in that area. I couldn’t see myself working there, much less living there. The area is overrun with bums and panhandlers. When I go to an event at the convention center I pay extra to park at the convention center, just to avoid having to walk the streets around it

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-01 16:26:52

Plumber I know told me the worst service calls are unclogging toilets full of used syringes at fast food restaurants in downtown Denver.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-01 17:13:05

I believe it. One time I stopped at a MickeyD’s near the convention center for a quick bite before going in the convention center. Let’s just say I ate fast and got the hades out of there.

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Comment by tresho
2017-12-01 17:35:09

Let’s just say I ate fast and got the hades out of there.
Apparently they salted your food with real salt, then.

 
Comment by tresho
2017-12-01 17:43:14

17 Apr 2017 Journal-Sentinel:

“What constitutes a lethal dose of carfentanil for humans is unknown, DEA spokesman Ross Baer said.

A lethal dose of fentanyl is the size as a few grains of table salt, he said. “A lethal dose of carfentanil is not visible to the human eye.”

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by octal77
2017-12-01 12:49:08

“…Ross Farr, a mortgage lender at Zions Bank, says the shortage of houses compared to the demand for them is expected to continue in 2018….”

“…this time, credit quality is so much higher…”

In other words, its different this time?

Yet, 1 in 5 Households have zero or negative net worth.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/one-in-five-american-households-have-zero-or-negative-wealth-2017-11-11

So, Ross Farr, where are all those well qualified buyers with great credit quality going to come from? Invaders from another Solar System?

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-01 17:15:32

Kang and Kodos have cash to burn!

 
 
Comment by octal77
2017-12-01 12:58:16

“…Ross Farr, a mortgage lender at Zions Bank, says the shortage of houses compared to the demand for them is expected to continue in 2018….”

“…his time, credit quality is so much higher…”

In other words, its different this time?

Yet, 1 in 5 Households have zero or negative net worth.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/one-in-five-american-households-have-zero-or-negative-wealth-2017-11-11

So, Ross Farr, where are all these well qualifed buyers with great credit quality going to come from?
Invaders from another Solar System?

Comment by trader jack
2017-12-01 14:41:30

the government will buy them to house the homelessness, caused by the high prices of homes and foreclosures.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2017-12-01 16:31:01

Realtors are liars.

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-12-01 17:25:57

Lone Tree, CO Housing Prices Plummet 7% YOY On Record High Housing Inventory

https://www.movoto.com/lone-tree-co/market-trends/

 
Comment by azdude
2017-12-01 17:31:08

Shorty has been totally played by wall street and uncled FED.

Comment by palmetto
2017-12-01 20:11:40

Even bitcoin shorty. Wall St. is all in.

 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
 
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