We’ve Already Reached A Turning Point
A report from The Daily News in Washington. “In a rental climate favorable for landlords, out-of-town investors have been flocking to Cowlitz County. They are having a major impact on the housing market. Mike Rodley, a California investor who owns 65 rental units in Kelso and Longview, said he rehabilitates his apartments every time a tenant moves out. In the 13 years that he has owned the two-bedroom apartments, Rodley said he has increased rents from about $400 to about $600. ‘Rising property values is something happening throughout the world,’ he said. ‘It’s not like there’s anything malevolent going on here. It’s just the price of doing business. … (Investors) are having to raise their rent to guarantee a return on investment.’”
From the Illinois Times. “Ghosts of pratfalls past haunted Springfield council chambers this week as the city approved public funding for a rogue developer with an unproven business plan who vows to take downtown where it never has gone before. With projected rents for yet-to-be-built units topping out at $2,500, the troubled rehab project at the intersection of South Sixth and Monroe streets would have some of the most expensive apartments in downtown, if not the entire city.”
“The city council on Tuesday voted 5-5 to commit $1.8 million more in public tax increment financing money to the project than had already been approved. The city previously had approved nearly $2 million, but money was cut off in 2016 after developer Rick Lawrence changed plans and started spending money on things that hadn’t been contemplated, most notably an elevator that would access adjoining buildings where apartments are planned. Lawrence, who told the council he’s out of cash, owes more than $1 million to vendors and in unpaid benefits for workers.”
“‘I lost focus,’ Lawrence told the council on Tuesday. ‘I knew where I was going, but I wasn’t sharing it (with bankers or the city). That’s where I got out of step with the construction loan.’”
From Sparefoot on Nebraska. “There is a storage boom happening in Omaha, but it might be more than the biggest city in Nebraska can handle. An unprecedented building spree in Omaha may lead to a glut of new storage supply that could soon depress prices in that state’s largest city, according to a report penned by Alex Burnam, senior acquisitions analyst at StorageMart. Bill Lange, president of the Nebraska Self Storage Owners Association said he’s seeing more developers of multifamily housing in Nebraska and elsewhere jumping into the self-storage sector, figuring that many of their housing tenants will correspondingly need more storage space for their belongings.”
“Lange said the self-storage sector in Omaha and Lincoln, Nebraska’s second largest city, have become attractive for the same reasons experienced in other cities across the country: Low interest rates, solid returns, and growing interest in the industry on the part of larger investors. ‘It’s not to say (Omaha) doesn’t need more space,’ Burnam told Sparefoot. It’s just that a lot of (space) is coming online soon – and that’s going to cause some pain. Price pressures are coming.’”
The Durango Herald in Colorado. “The median price of a home in Durango fell $15,250 in 2017 compared with 2016, a 3.28 percent drop one real estate broker attributed to increasing supply of homes in Three Springs and increased sales of townhomes. Max Hutcheson, an agent with the Wells Group in Durango, attributes the 2017 median home price drop in Durango to a wider availability of attainably priced homes in Three Springs and the sale of more townhomes.”
“Hutcheson said an increasing amount of apartments for rent are coming online this year in Durango, including in Three Springs and the old Rocket Drive-in, and the expected increase in supply should provide more affordable rentals for Durango workers. Also, more apartments available to rent in Durango might increase the number of homes for sale in the Durango market, said Gina Piccoli, broker-owner of Coldwell House Heritage House in Durango. ‘Completion of apartments alleviates pressure on rental supplies, and that puts pressure on rents. People holding homes as rental properties may be more inclined to sell the home rather than hold it as a rental,’ she said.”
The Real Deal on California. “As Los Angeles grapples with a severe affordable housing crisis, a new study shows condo and loft sales remain strong. There were roughly 353 condo and loft sales in the region in 2017, up 40 percent from 2016, according to the most recent report from Loftway, a brokerage specializing in loft sales and leases. That’s due in part to the opening of the much-awaited Metropolis Tower 1 and 1050 Grand, which sold 13 and 39 units, respectively.”
“Despite somewhat discounted prices, Luma South and Market Lofts also added to the tally, selling upwards of 25 units each last year. But a majority of the buildings saw their rents drop, with the Biscuit Lofts, Alta Lofts and Beacon experiencing the greatest dips, according to the report. At the Biscuit Lofts, rents dropped from $4.63 per square foot to $3.49 per square foot.”
“DTLA, which has been home to a flurry of new construction, has been the topic of much concern as industry leaders fear supply is outstripping demand. The deliveries of such luxury projects, like Metropolis, have increased competition in the area, likely causing a downturn effect on prices, the report showed.”
The Herald Tribune in Florida. “Home sales began accelerating nationally last year after growing at a sluggish pace from 2010 to 2016. On the flip side, occupancy in apartments, which showed a steady increase over those same six years, slowed in 2017, Reis Inc. reported. ‘Bear in mind that the occupancy numbers … do not reflect the high levels of new construction that have in fact lowered the overall occupancy rate to 95.4 percent from a high of 95.9 percent in 2016,’ Barbara Byrne Denham and Victor Calanog wrote in the white paper titled ‘Should We be Worried about the Slowdown in Renter Occupancy in Favor of Owner Occupancy?’”
“A different study, this one from Yardi Matrix, also asks a question in the title: ‘Apartment Rent Gains Slow in 2017. What’s in Store for 2018?’ ‘The question for 2018,’ the report states, ‘is how much more steam is left in the market, whether the deceleration will continue or it if will level off or turn negative.’ Downtown Sarasota alone is poised to add 1,721 rental apartments in various projects. Will these developments be a bust?”
From D Magazine in Texas. “Developers have delivered over 100,000 multifamily units In Dallas-Fort Worth since 2010—more than any other metro in the country—and they’re getting built everywhere from Uptown to Frisco to Las Colinas. Rents are rising quickly, and home values continue to skyrocket, too. So is another housing bubble building? Not so fast! Explosive single-family price growth and strong multifamily rent growth are more about an underreported market factor—too little housing—and less the result of rampant speculation or the lax lending environment seen in last cycle’s single-family housing bubble.”
“With rent growth slowing, vacancies rising, and even more supply on the way it’s likely that we’ve already reached a turning point in the multifamily market. However, if the metroplex continues to add jobs at a roughly 100,000 per year pace and single-family construction remains below previous highs, expect a soft landing for the sector as Dallas-Fort Worth continues to extend one of the longest business cycle expansions on record.”
From Mansion Global on New York. “New York City’s luxury rental market is more likely to suffer in 2018 due to a glut of available units rather than the new tax law, according to Donna Olshan, president of Olshan Realty. New York buyers who had in past years snatched up new condos off floor plans, expecting to flip them by 2018, are finding they can’t get quite the sale price they need to break even, Ms. Olshan said. They’re putting those units out to rent and flooding an already soft market, she said, a trend that started before any tax bill was seriously discussed. That trend also explains why many landlords in high-end buildings have to offer concessions in the form of several months’ free rent or gratis gym memberships.”
“Throughout 2017, landlords offered near-record concessions to attract new tenants, according to a November survey of Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens prepared by Miller Samuel. More of those are likely in 2018, too. ‘What you’ve got going now is a confluence of factors that are all going to depress the luxury rental market,’ Ms. Olshan said. ‘You have too much luxury rental inventory, and at the same time, the [potential] consequences of the tax bill.’”
‘if the metroplex continues to add jobs at a roughly 100,000 per year pace’
This is how these Costar guys make a living. Rear-view mirror stuff.
‘Lange said the self-storage sector in Omaha and Lincoln, Nebraska’s second largest city, have become attractive for the same reasons experienced in other cities across the country: Low interest rates, solid returns, and growing interest in the industry on the part of larger investors’
Once again, yellen bucks looking for a place to die is what’s driving this. Check out this article: these guys are fooked.
‘Lawrence, who told the council he’s out of cash, owes more than $1 million to vendors and in unpaid benefits for workers. ‘I lost focus,’ Lawrence told the council on Tuesday. ‘I knew where I was going, but I wasn’t sharing it (with bankers or the city). That’s where I got out of step with the construction loan.’
I had a hurricane put a tree into my house awhile back.
After battling the insurers (and being an engineer and getting every last dollar) and I then had to battle my mortgage company.
They had to COSIGN every check from the insurance company.
And for them to cosign a check, I had to prove that work was being done with pictures and documentation before they would sign the next check. And they came out to the house to double check a few times.
They mentioned they had been burned in Katrina where homeowners cashed checks, did no work and then skipped town.
And this yahoo gets $1 million without ONE FOLLOW UP.
Dang, who’s your lender? I had a claim from wind/tree damage for about $14k which was written to me and Wells Fargo. I took it to the local branch and they co-signed no problem. I had to sign something that said I’d use it to repair the house. Which I did and ended up coming out about $2k ahead.
Had a plumbing claim which paid about $6k and Wells wasn’t even listed as a payee. Maybe there’s a threshold…
“…..$1 million without ONE FOLLOW UP…..”
It sounds like he was building an elevator to nowhere! I often wonder how such fools get to be in charge of so much money.
“Developer” Lawrence. He’s got a problem. Like the rest of these mark-up men.
‘I knew where I was going, but I wasn’t sharing it (with bankers or the city)’
That’s alright Rick, nothing a few lawsuits and maybe some jail time can’t fix.
Why do city councils approve public funding to private developers? What the heck? “I lost focus” on the hookers and blow.
Same reason they give unafforable sweetheart contracts to public union goons
Tax dollars. They spend money to make money.
My little burg gave a healthfood store chain (Sprouts) a nice subsidy to open up shop in town. Basically, they’re gonna let them keep the sales tax they collect for a few years.
I wonder how many brown envelopes were exchanged for that sweetheart deal.
“What you’ve got going now is a confluence of factors that are all going to depress the luxury rental market.”
Depress = become affordable to a small share of the 8.7 million people who live in NYC.
There may be some real estate surpluses in some places, but not here. The issue is price. It’s insane.
‘New York buyers who had in past years snatched up new condos off floor plans, expecting to flip them by 2018, are finding they can’t get quite the sale price they need to break even, Ms. Olshan said. They’re putting those units out to rent and flooding an already soft market, she said, a trend that started before any tax bill was seriously discussed’
Accidental landlords+glut+falling rents/prices=Oh dear!
January 11, 2018
“With Canarsie and East New York leading the way, foreclosures in Brooklyn doubled last year and were at their highest levels in over a decade, according to PropertyShark. The reports found that 827 homes were scheduled to be auctioned in Brooklyn during 2017, while there were 410 first time foreclosures in 2016. The previous record dates from 2008 when foreclosure cases peaked across the city and Brooklyn had 460 homes scheduled. The highest concentration of foreclosed homes is located in the eastern part of the borough, with zip code 11236 in Canarsie logging 113 new cases. Neighboring zip codes 11208 (East New York) and 11234 (Canarsie) follow with 94 and 86 cases, respectively.”
“‘A lot of people bought without a lot of resources and then something happens that collapses their plans. For certain there are a lot of real estate brokers that arranged for people to get houses that they just couldn’t afford,’ said City Councilman Alan Maisel (D-Canarsie, Flatlands, Bergen Beach).”
“There are a lot of people who come into the office that make around $50,000 and are paying on a $500,000 mortgage making them house poor and yet they don’t want to sell their house because they see it as their investment and retirement, said Maisel. Maisel said while he is not surprised that foreclosures are up in the neighborhood, there could be more coming as last year there were between 800-900 homeowners that were earmarked for liens against their property for failing to pay water and property taxes.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10310
Your equation is slightly off
Accidental landlords+glut+falling rents/prices+monthly alligator of P/I, insurance, taxes, HOA fees and upkeep=Oh dear!
“‘New York buyers who had in past years snatched up new condos off floor plans, expecting to flip them by 2018, are finding they can’t get quite the sale price they need to break even, Ms. Olshan said.”
This sort of speculation in housing should be illegal. It’s almost like hoarding food. Imagine a scenario where speculators ginned up the price of canned food, etc., and the supermarket shelves started to go bare, with hungry folks competing at higher and higher prices for the leftovers.
Housing is shelter. One of the biggest problems with the housing bubble is the distortion it’s created on household balance sheets, and that translates to shocks in the general economy as discretionary income is eviscerated by high shelter prices. I haven’t seen anything in the media discussing this at all.
There is very little hording when banks have to eat (pun!) their bad loans and bankers get fired for a few bad loans or go to jail with too many bad loans.
But there is no buying votes in that kind of system.
Yep.
the general economy as discretionary income is eviscerated by high shelter prices. I haven’t seen anything in the media discussing this at all.
I would think the retail apocalypse of 2017 can in part be explained by the shift to online shopping. Everyone always thinks Amazon, but a good deal of this decline is likely associated with less discretionary purchase power, as you rightly point out. On the flip side, you have the wealth effect counteracting this where people “feel” wealthier because of so-called equity that makes them prone to whip out the credit cards and go into debt again, like it’s the mid 2000s all over again.
Read where the New York city mayor wants to put a homeless shelter on Billionaire row.
Not sure that will help sales and property values.
It’s not about places to live. It’s about selling to leveraged speculators. You can’t see the excess until the debt donkeys stampede.
Antifa is a criminal terrorist organization:
https://www.wired.com/story/free-speech-issue-antifa-data-mining/
Big Tech is a YUGE donor to the democrats, almost exclusively.
And there is a reason for it.
Even thought this is a left wing article in the fake legacy news, like Pravda, you need to read what they don’t say to get the real news.
God bless DJT.
+++++
H-1B: Immigrants make up nearly three-quarters of Silicon Valley tech workforce, report says
San Jose Mercury | January 17, 2018 | Ethan Baron
About 71 percent of tech employees in the Valley are foreign born, compared to around 50 percent in the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward region, according to a new report based on 2016 census data.
And Silicon Valley remains the “center of the tech universe,” according to the newspaper.
Beyond personal preferences, and the sheer number of companies in areas such as Silicon Valley and fast-growing Seattle, the financial resources of major technology firms also play a role in bringing in immigrants, the Seattle Times reported Wednesday.
Many immigrant tech workers are employed under the controversial H-1B visa — intended for specialty occupations — which has become a flashpoint in the U.S. cage fight over immigration, with opponents claiming it lets foreigners steal American jobs. Several companies and UC San Francisco have been accused of abusing the visa program by using it as a tool to outsource Americans’ jobs to workers from far-away lands.
Backlash against the H-1B visa has been one part of the furor over U.S. immigration policies that has grown since President Donald Trump began campaigning for the presidency on an anti-immigrant platform.
That’s what I was saying a month ago when I was moving. San Jose is now bipolar. Management/top engineer class living like “normal” Americans except overpaying to be in highly desirable locations, H1B and new grads living like students. Nothing in between except for a few middle aged people who managed to buy a house long ago. I couldn’t stay unless I wanted to live like a student until the bottom of the next major downturn.
You have just described Redmond, WA as well. I fit into the middle-aged category that was lucky enough to buy a house 20 years ago. My neighborhood was #1 on Redfin’s hottest neighborhood list last month, nationwide (by whatever formula they were using).
Even my young techie neighbors (one kid, pulled out of private school now attending public) who both work can’t afford to buy a new house in this area (they spent about $150K refurbing their 1977 split-level and have $100K of new cars however).
hi redmondjp,
I work on the main msft campus. Part of the problem is that a lot of these (new to US, but well meaning) folks think that their kids will help them through older age. They are not pre-occupied with retirement savings
I am constantly contacted by both Bay Arean and Seattle recruiters. It’s simply out of the question, of course. Will they let you telecommute? Nope!
Will they let you telecommute? Nope!
If they ever explain why let me know. I got some stuff about teamwork but that was it. But what I think I detect is a whiff of “if you don’t want to work here you can’t be smart enough to work here”.
If they ever explain why let me know. I got some stuff about teamwork but that was it.
Personally, I’ve come to see great value in working together in person (in tech jobs).
At my old job, I was remote from my team and it made it very difficult to stay in sync — people would communicate less, not reach out if they were stuck, etc. I’d have to be very proactive about reaching out and asking how things were going, if there’s anything I can help with, etc.
I’m now back in an office on-site with my entire team and I love it. The personal relationships (jokes, grabbing lunch, etc) make it easier to work together and smooth over any rough bits. And it’s so effective to be able to roll over to someone’s desk to answer a question, work through a problem/code review, etc.
From my experience, there are gains to be had from co-locating your team.
and have $100K of new cars however
Now that’s just foolish. You can’t control the forces of the housing bubble, but no one is twisting anyone’s arm to buy ridiculously priced vehicles. We know that houses are not investments here but rather a place to live in. Vehicles are way more of a money pit than a house! If there is one nugget of wisdom to be had on the Mr. Money Mustache blog it’s that the high end needs to stop wasting money on transportation.
And it’s so effective to be able to roll over to someone’s desk to answer a question, work through a problem/code review, etc.
I know it is for a lot of people. As someone who much prefers text to talk, I like being remote because it forces people to communicate in my style rather than allowing them to be lazy and just roll over and spew their verbiage at me while I try to reboot my brain and process what they are saying in real time when half of it is already gone :-). But I know I’m in the minority.
allowing them to be lazy and just roll over and spew their verbiage at me while I try to reboot my brain and process what they are saying
Yeah, there’s definitely a balance to be had. Constant interruptions because people are too lazy to try to solve their own problems (or do their own Googling) isn’t good either!
To be clear I’m not a fan of “open environments” for this reason — there needs to be a way for an individual to control their interruptions/be able to focus
while I try to reboot my brain and process what they are saying in real time when half of it is already gone
I’m with you on this. I don’t task switch well and where I work you are lucky to get an uninterrupted 30 minutes to work on anything. Sometimes I think the place is actively trying to prevent me from being productive.
An oldie but one of my favorites along these lines:
https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2001/02/12/human-task-switches-considered-harmful/
To be clear I’m not a fan of “open environments” for this reason
They seem to be the new craze. When I was thinking of changing jobs, I’d say that 80% of the jobs I interviewed for had open environments.
Everyone was wearing ear buds or headphones while they pounded away on their keyboards, working elbow to elbow in a sweatshop environment.
As for code reviews, we have tools that make remote ones a snap (Like reviewboard). If I want to pick someone’s brain there is email, IRC/Slack, or the good old fashioned phone.
As for code reviews, we have tools that make remote ones a snap (Like reviewboard). If I want to pick someone’s brain there is email, IRC/Slack
We have all those tools as well, and people use them quite a bit. I’d suggest they work well 80% of the time, but for that other 20% you can’t substitute real-time, in-person chat, and I don’t think you can estimate when you need those times will arise.
As a lead with a pretty junior team (which is a whole nother set of issues), this may hold true more for me than others.
As a lead with a pretty junior team (which is a whole nother set of issues), this may hold true more for me than others.
And that gets into why I couldn’t find a work from home gig (which I would then do from China). Basically the management attitude is “even if you can work well remotely, we need you here to mentor the junior people in person”.
As a lead with a pretty junior team (which is a whole nother set of issues), this may hold true more for me than others.
Agreed, it’s hard to “tele-mentor”.
Take away all their H1B’s and see how quickly they change their tune. Reform can’t come fast enough.
H1B gone? Jobs move to outsourcing. Bye, bye baby, bye bye.
If they’re claiming they need people on-site, they’re certainly not going to send the jobs out of the country!
Duh.
Sure they will, if they cannot get people on site. That is what outsourcing is…….the point I am making is H1B visas are important to keeping the companies and the workers here, instead of moving everything there. The company I worked for in 2000 had 8,000 employees in the US. When I left in 2009, 40% of their employees were off-shored. We would end our day and send the needed work to cyberspace and when we returned in the morning, a completed draft for review was waiting for us.
It’s a bit more complicated than complicated than you “reform” claims. Just like Trump and NAFTA. If the US won’t play, they will find new partners that will in China, Vietnam, etc!
I would say that if a job can be offshored, it will be offshored. The H1-B’s purpose is to keep a lid on wages for jobs that can’t be offshored for one reason or another.
Yep, just have to go through the SFO airport to see this (nice airport with some bad design elements, like gates are too small with too little seating for large flights). Smells horrible too - the BO stench plus the homeless/addicts everywhere in the city and another place gets turned into a third world like where the invaders came from.
Oh, and all the food in the court is “international”, meaning it will make you sick. Again, let in the third world, and your country becomes third world.
Racis.
Which explains why salaries have been stagnant in the tech sector
71 sounds low to me b. Ive been in tech campuses in San Mateo where the ratio was easily 10:1 indian to non Indian. Although I guess some could be on visas other than H1b.
Other than senior mgmt at least 80% of coder grunts are non Americans.
I haven’t been to the Santa Clara campus for a couple of years, but the last time I was there I would say that about a third of the staff was foreign born.
Microsoft is putting in a Cricket pitch, what more do you need to know!!??
The horror! Before you know it, they’ll start spelling the word color with a u!
Good one!
No Cricket Pitch at the SCA campus. That said, the cafeteria there serves Indian food (Chinese and Mexican too)
I love Indian food. I like Chinese and Mexican too (at least the US equivalents).
Not sure that a diversified, inclusive, multi-cultural cafeteria menu is indicative of the clientèle though. The KKK corporate HQ probably serves burritos (not that I’d know or want to mind you).
A cricket pitch is a different story as I’m sure you know. I never said I had anything against it, I’m just saying that building one implies demand. You don’t build a mosque for Christians.
Oh, I see you are stating that there is no cricket pitch at the Santa Clara campus, it’s planned for Redmond, that was a mis-targeted reply on my part.
another misfire, replied to the wrong thread.
Oh, I see you are stating that there is no cricket pitch at the Santa Clara campus, it’s planned for Redmond, that was a mis-targeted reply on my part.
“…..with opponents claiming it lets foreigners steal American jobs.”
No H1-B? The jobs get off-shored to India. Still no “American” jobs.
No H1-B? The jobs get off-shored to India. Still no “American” jobs.
10 years ago? You are definitely correct. Today? With the wage gap so much smaller? Maybe not.
‘more apartments available to rent in Durango might increase the number of homes for sale in the Durango market, said Gina Piccoli, broker-owner of Coldwell House Heritage House in Durango. ‘Completion of apartments alleviates pressure on rental supplies, and that puts pressure on rents. People holding homes as rental properties may be more inclined to sell the home rather than hold it as a rental’
Golly Gina, I hope that with prices falling these shack holding investors didn’t pay too much previously.
‘Mike Rodley, a California investor who owns 65 rental units in Kelso and Longview, said he rehabilitates his apartments every time a tenant moves out. In the 13 years that he has owned the two-bedroom apartments, Rodley said he has increased rents from about $400 to about $600. ‘Rising property values is something happening throughout the world,’ he said. ‘It’s not like there’s anything malevolent going on here. It’s just the price of doing business. … (Investors) are having to raise their rent to guarantee a return on investment.’
There’s two sides to every cow patty Mike and it won’t be anything personal when the new apartments down the street undercut your guarantee. Maybe you should have bought at a price that made sense in the first case rather than jacking up rents. BTW, this article quotes some landlords that understand this and question this “business model.”
Supply will meet demand at a market based rate, if allowed.
If government tries to intervene to buy votes, not so much.
A better question to ask:
Your rents have gone up 50% in 13 years in the local area.
Have average wages gone up the same or more in the same time period?
I don’t put much emphasis on a single bad month (Weather! Hurricane! Trump Tweet!) but taken in context with the Great QE Unwind and the DJT new tax laws just starting to kick in…
+++++++
Housing Starts Crash In December
ZeroHedge - 01/18/2018
Housing Starts plunged 8.2% MoM in December (5 times worse than expected and the biggest drop since Nov 2016) and November was revised lower as it seems the exuberant steam is coming out of the housing ‘recovery’.
Year-over-Year Housing Starts tumbled 6.0%…
Driven by a big slump in single-family housing starts…
‘In a new plan to tackle the homelessness problem in New York, a mobile shower service is coming to Brooklyn to help people living on the streets get clean. As CBS2’s Dave Carlin reported, the idea first started on the West Coast. But will it work in New York City?’
‘The new shower bus will roll from parks, to food pantries to highway underpasses — anywhere the homeless gather. It is modeled very closely to a similar bus in San Francisco — fitted with two shower stalls, toilets, sinks and benches.’
‘Alonso Zakow, 33, a construction worker from Texas, said he is now living on benches in Sunset Park in Brooklyn.’
But, construction worker shortages?
Dude. Go back to Texas.
Much, much cheaper and warmer.
And the showers are just the same there.
Time to get on the shower bus!
Denver’s 16th Street Mall needs one. Including spray for lice and fleas.
LOL! Replace the free 16th St shuttle buses with shower and de-licing buses.
“But, construction worker shortages?”
Right ?!
Surely we’re not being lied to about the construction worker shortage?
Ben posted an article the other day claiming construction worker shortages in TX. So what is this Texan doing in NY in the middle of winter?
Odd to see housing starts dip with so little supply already coming. We will have to see if the trend continues.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-18/housing-starts-crash-december
It’s only odd if you believe that there aren’t already enough houses built for everyone that is ready, willing, and able to buy at current prices.
I just sold a house in the Sacramento foothills. There were two offers the first weekend. During escrow, four agents called asking how the deal was going. Never have seen so much interest. There is no winter slowdown.
The appraisal came in $12k below the offered purchase price, so we dropped the price.
There is certainly a shortage of available homes in this market.
There is certainly a shortage of available homes in this market.
In the 400k range I’ll defer to you. But at the 600-700k range where I’ve been looking there has been a number of houses on my watch list that sat for quite a while. It does look like so far everything has sold eventually though, usually within 95% of the original asking price. They just kept waiting and making small price cuts and eventually sold. Once in a while something special (for the price) comes along and they usually do go pending pretty quickly. But I haven’t felt that crazed energy of the bay area where you have to be prepared to make offers as soon as they list. It feels like you can take your time.
DebtDonkey
Boulder, CO Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY On Record Low Housing Demand
https://www.movoto.com/boulder-co/market-trends/
It is my pleasure to present to each and every one of you cybercurrency investment pukes the Cybercurrency Investment Theme Song …
https://youtu.be/p13yZAjhU0M
Bitconnect conference.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbR1SXIje1U
The headline for that video:
Proof That BitConnect Is NOT A Scam [All Evidence So Far]
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/06/meet-cryptokitties-the-new-digital-beanie-babies-selling-for-100k.html
“Think breedable Beanie Babies.”
‘So states the FAQ for CryptoKitties, a new game for collecting, breeding and selling digital cats that is so popular, it is clogging up the network of digital currency ethereum.’
‘Players have spent the equivalent of $6.7 million and counting buying CryptoKitties, which can sell for as much as $114,481.59, according to third-party research from developer Niel de la Rouviere. The median price of a kitten is $25.04. Just three days ago, the site had logged about $1.3 million in sales.’
“The popularity of virtual cats fits the euphoria we see elsewhere in the crypto-currency space,” Peter Atwater, who studies market sentiment and heads Financial Insyghts, said in an email. “It feels very reminiscent of the Candy Crush craze that helped propel the King Entertainment IPO back at the peak of the ‘Unicorn’ era in mid 2014.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/family-spends-100000-on-beanie-babies-2013-7
A Family Spent $100,000 On Beanie Babies To Put Their Kids Through College - Megan Willett
Jul. 25, 2013
‘In 1993, the world went crazy for Beanie Babies, small, plush animals by toy company Ty. Heralded as valuable collectibles, people would rush out to buy the $5.95 toys for their children or themselves, eagerly waiting for them to appreciate in value. But then the Beanie Baby bubble burst.’
‘As far as bubbles go, it wasn’t bad — at worst, most collectors were stuck with a few worthless stuffed animals they’d overpaid for. But one family found themselves sunk by the toys.’
‘The Robinsons of Los Angeles currently have tens of thousands of Beanie Babies, all stacked neatly away and labeled in boxes. The family estimates they spent roughly $100,000 on the collection, thinking it would eventually appreciate in value and pay for their kids to attend college.’
‘But the spending was only the tip of the iceberg. For a time, the family let the dolls rule their lives, hopping from one “Beanie joint” to another, trying to sidestep the “one-per-family rule” by recruiting neighbors to make purchases for them and going to extreme lengths to catalogue and preserve their Beanie Baby hoard.’
‘In 2009, their oldest son, Chris Robinson, decided to direct a short documentary called “Bankrupt by Beanies” about his family’s experience.’
https://youtu.be/iYVO5bUFww0
This is the one I saw yesterday, with Bitconnect Carlos:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YCVZPBhrjQ
And yet, Bitconnect is STILL trading around $40.00, despite a cease and desist order. Wut?
Bitcoin itself snapped back.
Bankrupt by Beanies, on YT: https://youtu.be/PgDsyj5eLmo
San Diego, CA 92129 Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Housing Correction Expands
https://www.zillow.com/san-diego-ca-92129/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
You seem so foolish. Zillow: 9.1% increase last year. Market: Hot. HA…..really? You are telling us the market is cratering. I looked at condos there a few months ago and they were fine. Until the condos crater, SFR won’t crater.
DebtDonkey
Napa, CA Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/napa-ca/home-values/
HA! Now I know you’re no analyst. The market is on fire….literally, it burned up last fall. Available inventory down 50%. Median list price up 9% YoY.
Quit your ridiculous claims! You look foolish.
I am not saying the market won’t turn down in the next recession, but the demand for housing in Napa county has never been higher or more challenging for buyers.
“The market is on fire…”
Hehe… and their earthquake really shook things up too.
DebtDonkey
Albany, OR Housing Prices Crater 29% YOY As Inventory Floods Market
https://www.movoto.com/albany-or/market-trends/
Who will be hurt the most?
Those who are insanely leveraged with no positive cash flow…
Big picture time:
Great QE Unwind + DJT new tax laws + Higher interest rates = ?
++++++
If Interest Rates Spike, Here’s Who Will Be Hurt The Most
01/18/2018 - ZeroHedge
Interest rates are finally rising, and as we observed this morning, the 10Y - now above 2.60% and the highest since last March…
… is now on the cusp of breaking above the 2.63% level which Jeff Gundlach said last week is where stocks will be negatively impacted.
Clearly, this is a problem for the US economy, where the bulk of the middle-class wealth is found not in the stock market, but in the biggest investment most Americans will make over their lifetime - their house. And with rates expected to keep rising, it’s only going to get worse.
There is more recent evidence to confirm that rising rates will likely crush housing: In the four months following Bernanke’s “tapering” testimony in May 2013 and President Trump’s election in November 2016, mortgage rates rose by almost 100bp and 75bp respectively. In the subsequent nine months, Goldman’s housing Current Activity Indicator (CAI) decelerated in both instances by about 2.5pp relative to the non-housing CAI.
Bottom line: higher interest rates are likely to weigh the most on demand in the housing sector in the coming years. In the context of Goldman’s forecast for a 100bp increase in long-run rates, it implies a 5-6% drag on residential fixed investment spread over the next few years. This also means a sharp drop in property and real estate values, and a substantial hit to the middle-class wealth effect.
And with rates expected to keep rising, it’s only going to get worse.
It will be interesting to see if the rate hikes will actually go through. For the life of me, I can’t see how this will actually happen, though rates need to normalize. If rates go much higher, the cost of servicing the US debt will start to balloon, exacerbating the already out of control national debt. This will almost certainly cause a recession, and I’m not sure we are politically ready to take that medicine.
comment oneagainstmany:
“The Fed only has to sell the bonds if they don’t let them mature. If they let them mature, then there is no paying back at the end of maturity. The treasury is already paying the fed for the the interest on the coupon, and the Fed is remitting this to the treasury. It’s a circular transaction.”
r u on crack buddy? so u think just because the bonds mature there is nothing to pay back? This makes no sense at all.
If the bond matures that means it has reached its end date and the principal must be paid back. interest is paid along the way at a set rate.
You are right, I worded this wrong. It doesn’t change the end result though because the transaction is circular. Fed monetizes the debt and creates funds to buy treasury security. Treasury makes episodic payments to the Fed based on the interest rate of the security, which the Fed remits to the treasury. Fed also pays banks a set interest rate so that the new money injected into the system doesn’t get out into the money supply and cause inflation. At the end of maturity, the treasury pays back the Fed with its working capital (from tax revenue or other sources of revenue). The Fed remits this money to the treasury as well.
At the end of maturity, the treasury pays back the Fed with its working capital (from tax revenue or other sources of revenue). The Fed remits this money to the treasury as well.
That last part is the only bit that you have wrong. The funds to buy the Treasuries were made up out of thin air (QE!) in the first, and when they let the bonds mature the Fed is un-QE’ing the funds. So those funds can’t go back to the Treasury, since they didn’t come from there in the first place. Back to the ether, they go!
Good clarification, and I agree with it. The main point is that the bailout has already happened and it’s not inherently obvious how the bailout has happened, but its primarily via the transmission of lower rates via easing. Taxpayers aren’t on the hook for the cleanup of quantitative easing other than the fact that we (e.g. the US government) continue to run deficits, so new debt issuance continues to be needed to fund government operations. But this is business as usual.
‘Downtown Sarasota alone is poised to add 1,721 rental apartments in various projects. Will these developments be a bust?’
Place your bets folks! My pick = Newark
Finalists for #AmazonHQ2:
Atlanta
Austin
Boston
Chicago
Columbus
Dallas
Denver
Indianapolis
Los Angeles
Miami
Montgomery County
Nashville
Newark
New York City
Northern Virginia
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Raleigh
Toronto
Washington D.C.
I would like to write in Camden, New Jersey.
It would seem that from a property price and tax climate as well as available technical talent, that Austin and Raleigh would be in the running. Austin already does have an Amazon tech center and some of the gigs there are around delivering refinements to their control mechanisms for the warehouse floor/operations. Pretty cool actually to have critical components developed outside of Silicon Valley.
One plus for Amazon is that with Dell/EMC just down the road they are close to a major storage vendor. But I don’t know whether the decision will be based on economics or the potential employee pool or political considerations (including the politics of the employee pool).
It will be N.Virginia. Bezo’s recently purchased quite a spread there and its close to D.C. sugar.
My friend just moved there from San Diego and said housing costs are a fraction of here, quality of life is great with hiking, cycling, rafting… things techies like, Newark doesn’t have this.
In the end it will hinge on what Bezos’ criteria is, and to be honest, beyond who will offer the most corporate welfare, we just don’t know what that criteria is. Is being close to DC important? Is being on the east coast important? Is a lower cost of living important? Is being attractive to Millenials important? We can only guess.
Am I the only one who thinks this Amazon HQ2 is total BS and more or less a publicity stunt?
“In the coming months, Amazon will work with each of the candidate locations to dive deeper into their proposals, request additional information, and evaluate the feasibility of a future partnership that can accommodate the company’s hiring plans as well as benefit its employees and the local community. Amazon expects to make a decision in 2018.”
What a load. They “expect” to make a decision in 2018.
You’re right. Publicity stunt to cause their stock price to continue to rise.
Shopping for senators to keep them from getting slapped with big fines and having to pay what every other retailer does for shipping is my take.
It reminds me of A-Rods contract with the Rangers back in 2000. His agent Scott Boras kept minor talks going with other teams but kept raising the price on the Texas Rangers. Eventually he signed a 10/252 million dollar deal. It was later revealed that Boras just ran up the price, claiming someone else was close to them but in reality no one was even in the same atmosphere, with the Mets at 90 million as the closest suitor. Bezos is gonna milk some city hard, just like Boras.
I do also. Think somebody like Jeff Bezos is excited about the factionalism and corporate intrigues that likely will emanate over time from a legitimate “second headquarters”? I see this whole episode as an intimidating demonstration of the company’s raw political power. Apple now has announced plans to build a “second campus,” too.
I see that neither Tampa nor St. Pete made the cut. Yet Miami did. Culturally and geographically you couldn’t get any farther from Seattle, so I would say that’s a longshot.
There’s an Irish betting site giving odds on this. Miami is 16-1 there. My pick: D.C. (currently 10-1), Montgomery County (20-1), or northern Virginia (20-1). Got to be in or near the imperial capital.
actually, this is true, reasonable — but sleazy
The high cost folks like purchase managers, AWS cloud developers, can stay in Seattle.
The HQ logistics folks, the AWS support folks, family members need to move to a lower (personal) cost centers. Which is why i think Denver, Texas, or other will be similar.
DC area, Chicago, will drop out
I say everyone will drop out, because it will never happen. Bezos is just having some fun getting stroked. It’s nothing more than a demonstration of power.
He needs a second HQ like a hole in the head. No such thing as a “second HQ” anyway. Even the name tells you it’s a publicity scam. It’s just another satellite facility.
Kinda like being selected for the Olympics. An expensive “honor”.
I’m not sure cities can “drop out” like they do for the Olympics.
Montgomery County MD is an interesting choice. 50,000 jobs in one spot would probably smother the area; the roads are crowded enough as it is, although not as bad as Northern Virginia. It would certainly pressure the county to allow another bridge over the Potomac River, which would spell the end of about half of the Agricultural reserve. There’s a LOT of very tempting buildable land in the area.
I’m not sure cities can “drop out” like they do for the Olympics.
I’m sure that the “winner” will be expected to cough up a lot of corporate welfare, so all a city has to do is slam its checkbook shut and Amazon will pass them over.
oxide: It would certainly pressure the county to allow another bridge over the Potomac River, which would spell the end of about half of the Agricultural reserve. There’s a LOT of very tempting buildable land in the area.
There was a lot of talk of how the ICC would damage the environment and that’s why it would never be built. As soon as they figured out how to do automatic overhead tolls, that went right out the window and they put it in, fast.
If Amazon would increase tax revenue and jobs, kiss any protected land goodbye instantaneously.
I think it’s highly likely that a northern Virginia or Montgomery county location would win, due to proximity to DC. Expect new rail lines to spring up from the headquarters to Metro.
The following post is very DC-centric, but it’s not hard to see from google maps:
I found a Washington Post article which said that Montgomery County had offered up the site of the old White Flint Mall to Amazon. That site is right on a VERY busy thoroughfare, a 10 minute drive from the Beltway, and within 15 minutes walk from a subway stop. There’s already quite a few luxe towers and annoying Millenial stores like Whole Paycheck and REI.
The problem is that the area is mostly built up already. There is NOT the space for even 10,000 jobs, not to mention 50,000. And that doesn’t include the support jobs. The only way to increase housing is to tear down old shopping centers and build luxe towers on the site, which is what they are doing already, at breakneck pace.
Anything resembling “acceptable” housing (i.e. SFH larger than 2000 sq ft, or younger than 1975) is along 270, which is already gridlocked. They could probably expand the commuter rail to include a stop right at Amazon, but not everyone wants to take the train. That’s why I suspect they would have to open up the drive-able agricultural land to the west, closer to the river. Developers have been salivating over that for decades. Not to mention a bridge over the river itself into Virginia (probably near White’s Ferry), which is a direct shortcut to Dulles Airport. The existing roads in the area (including that ICC) would probably be joined up and expanded to form an Outer Beltway, which has also been on the table for decades. And I suspect it will ALL be tolled.
Palmetto, I agree. It’s about publicity. Amazon has all the facts. Bezos, if he wanted, could make the decision today.
Another thought that crossed my mind: The Disneyworld “effect”. Back in the sixties, when Walt Disney decided to build his second themepark/resort, he kept the location secret until they purchased the land (using proxies), which kept the land price down. Now granted, Amazon probably won’t be buying 40,000+ acres like Disney did, but if they need to buy land from various owners they might be doing something similar, so it’s possible Bezos has already made his decision.
I’m leaning towards Toronto. It has the SJW vibe that’s in line with Amazon’s “values”
My guess is no. I don’t believe that Canada is as generous with their work visas as the US is with H1-B. And Canada has already rejected illegal immigrants and mass refugees ourtright, which goes against Bezos desire for massive serfer farms.
My personal experience having lived in Montreal is that Canada’s immigration system is very liberal, more so than the US system. Montreal is a true cosmopolitan city. I can’t speak to Toronto because I’ve never lived there. I imagine it’s similar though.
A cursory Google search of the facts shows that the US has by far the largest number of immigrants legal immigrants admitted to
any developed country (and probably the largest number of illegals as well), but Canada’s immigration rate is much larger as a percentage of their population. Canada’s annual immigration rate is about 1% of their population, or about 300,000. For context, that would mean that for the US to equal Canada’s immigration rate, the US would need to admit 3.5 million immigrants admitted per year, or about 3x our current the legal immigration rate.
This should free up some shacks:
Oakland Mayor Says She’ll Go To Jail To Protect Sanctuary City Policy
‘Schaaf’s remarks came on a day when rumors were swirling that ICE planned to launch a series of Bay Area raids — arresting as many as 1,500 illegal aliens.’
http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2018/01/17/oakland-bans-cooperation-federal-immigration-agents-braces-for-ice-raids/
The comments are funny.
It’ll be a cold day in hell before political opponents are jailed in this country. “Sanctuary cities” must be lawful if it’s a stance taken by mayors and governors. Perhaps we just need an amendment to the constitution.
That ain’t happening.
Alternatively, we could fix our immigration system.
That might happen, but it won’t happen within a single party. Until the republican base starts supporting candidates that work with democratic officials, we’ll continue to get deadlock.
By those comments, that ain’t happening.
Best thing we can do is just turn the TV off.
“Alternatively, we could fix our immigration system.”
Enforcing the existing laws on the books would be a good start. Not happening.
Unless there’s a return to the rule of law, it will never happen. The DOJ and legal system is one big protection racket.
“Enforcing the existing laws on the books would be a good start. Not happening.”
What do you mean by this? It’s not as if ICE is not enforcing laws. As I understand from the injuctures, it’s state and municipalities that are not enforcing federal laws, which is perfectly reasonable given our federalism bedrock of the country. The Feds cannot coopt State assets. This would certainly require a constitutional amendment.
Unless you’re suggesting that we increase ICE budgets to rival DOD for the purpose of immigration control. That’d be ridiculously expensive. I’d rather keep the money and the immigrants.
Here’s what I said:
“Enforcing the existing laws on the books would be a good start. Not happening.”
Never said anything about states and municipalities. Just enforce existing laws. I have no way of knowing what ICE is doing or not doing. Yes, there’s articles written, but that doesn’t mean anything. My suspicion is that not as much is happening as we’re led to believe.
OTOH, some Federal immigration official just met with 18 sheriffs from the state of Florida to form cooperative efforts, so there’s that.
“Never said anything about states and municipalities. Just enforce existing laws. I have no way of knowing what ICE is doing or not doing. Yes, there’s articles written, but that doesn’t mean anything. My suspicion is that not as much is happening as we’re led to believe.”
Your suspicion is that Immigration and Customs Enforcement is not enforcing laws? They’re Law Enforcement. Why do you think that they are not enforcing the law?
Is there an itemized “sanctuary city” tax on the home owner’s property tax notice, or do they use the “general fund” for these issues?
Would you expect anything different from the (((tribe)))? They love their slaves! What would they do without people to exploit - the dumber the better
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rabbis-arrested-daca-protest_us_5a5f8b13e4b046f0811c6213
Does the Democrat Party stand for anything besides illegal aliens and transsexuals and opposition to lower taxes?
Yes. There’s an entire document that outlines the party’s platform. I’ll copy-paste below the headlines for you.
https://www.democrats.org/party-platform
“-RAISE INCOMES AND RESTORE ECONOMIC SECURITY FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS
-CREATE GOOD-PAYING JOBS
-FIGHT FOR ECONOMIC FAIRNESS AND AGAINST INEQUALITY
-BRING AMERICANS TOGETHER AND REMOVE BARRIERS TO OPPORTUNITIES
-PROTECT VOTING RIGHTS, FIX OUR CAMPAIGN FINANCE SYSTEM, AND RESTORE OUR DEMOCRACY
-COMBAT CLIMATE CHANGE, BUILD A CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY, AND SECURE ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE
-PROVIDE QUALITY AND AFFORDABLE EDUCATION
-ENSURE THE HEALTH AND SAFETY OF ALL AMERICANS
-SUPPORT OUR TROOPS AND KEEP FAITH WITH OUR VETERANS
-CONFRONT GLOBAL THREATS
-PROTECT OUR VALUES
-A LEADER IN THE WORLD”
And this is what all of that amounts to, as demonstrated by Jimmy Dore:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J2C-U8KtuE
Raise incomes: by importing millions of unskilled migrants working under the table for half of minimum wage.
Good paying jobs: yeah, in China, India, and Mexico.
Economic fairness: again, with jobs in other countries and millions of under-the-table serfs here?
Protect voting rights… by refusing to release information about voter registration.
Restore Democracy: I’m sorry that Hillary couldn’t adjust her campaign strategy to fit the rules which have been in place for 200+ years.
Combat climate change: With badly-placed subsidies. 90% of the money should be going to research into standardizing storage and battery systems, not VC for crappy start-ups.
Education: Might want to talk to the parents about that. And it’s not Trumps fault that snowflakes want to major in womyn’s studies instead of STEM.
Ensure health and safety: I could get behind a public option.
The rest is rah-rah kumbaya and not worth answering.
I take it you only read the headlines. I’ll just copy-paste one of the bullet points here so you can get a gist. It’s not as you describe. I think that you, especially, will find a lot of agreement with your own beliefs and those of the Democratic party.
“Reining in Wall Street and Fixing our Financial System
To restore economic fairness, Democrats will fight against the greed and recklessness of Wall Street. Wall Street cannot be an island unto itself, gambling trillions in risky financial instruments and making huge profits, all the while thinking that taxpayers will be there to bail them out again. We must tackle dangerous risks in big banks and elsewhere in the financial system. We must make Wall Street work for the job-creating, productive economy—including by making loans more affordable for small- and medium-sized businesses. We need to prohibit Wall Street from picking and choosing which credit agency will rate its products as well as from imposing excessive fees on consumers. And we must hold both individuals and corporations accountable when they break the law. Democrats believe that no bank can be too big to fail and no executive too powerful to jail. Democrats will support stronger criminal laws and civil penalties for Wall Street criminals who prey on the public trust. We also support extending the statute of limitations for prosecuting major financial fraud, and providing the Department of Justice, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission more resources to prosecute wrongdoing. “Equal Justice Under Law” will not just be words engraved on the entrance of the Supreme Court. It will be the standard that applies to Wall Street and all Americans.”
Truly, it’s a wonder to me how y’all aren’t all Democratic voters. Perhaps you are… it’s none of my business.
Education: Might want to talk to the parents about that. And it’s not Trumps fault that snowflakes want to major in womyn’s studies instead of STEM.
Parents are the problem. It gotta be their fault that there are so many snowflake kids.
Proverbs 13:24
I voted for the Democrat running against John McCain last year. When I do vote Democrat I try to vote as many times as possible, keeping with party tradition.
“When I do vote Democrat I try to vote as many times as possible, keeping with party tradition.”
The Democratic Party was founded on the promise of an expanded democracy. The right to vote is at the heart of our national vision. It is a core principle of the Democratic Party to maximize voter participation for all Americans. Our democracy suffers when nearly two thirds of our citizens do not or cannot participate, as in the last midterm elections. Democrats believe we must make it easier to vote, not harder.
Yeah, and they use the national security system to wiretap the opposing candidate, during an election mind you, based on made up stuff. And when they lose they continue to illegally wiretap the president elect in hopes of overturning a perfectly valid election. What was that you were saying about democracy?
Truly, it’s a wonder to me how y’all aren’t all Democratic voters. Perhaps you are… it’s none of my business.
Maybe so. In my case I’m not because of the major gap between words and actions regarding Wall Street and the all too quick jump into gun grabbing whenever presented with an opportunity to do so. You can definitely find an item here and there where I would be more aligned with the Ds. But add it all together and no way. Not that the Rs are any great alternative.
“Yeah, and they use the national security system to wiretap the opposing candidate, during an election mind you, based on made up stuff. And when they lose they continue to illegally wiretap the president elect in hopes of overturning a perfectly valid election.”
Those are big claims, and I’m certain that there isn’t big evidence to back those claims up. I think we can summarily dismiss that idea.
I do appreciate your blog by the fact that you quote articles rather than offer your direct opinions. It’s a lot less conspiracy crap than other blogs that mention the housing bubble.
“the all too quick jump into gun grabbing whenever presented with an opportunity to do so.”
By gun grabbing, I suppose you’re describing “sensible action to address gun violence”.
“With 33,000 Americans dying every year, Democrats believe that we must finally take sensible action to address gun violence. While responsible gun ownership is part of the fabric of many communities, too many families in America have suffered from gun violence. We can respect the rights of responsible gun owners while keeping our communities safe. To build on the success of the lifesaving Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act, we will expand and strengthen background checks and close dangerous loopholes in our current laws; repeal the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA) to revoke the dangerous legal immunity protections gun makers and sellers now enjoy; and keep weapons of war—such as assault weapons and large capacity ammunition magazines (LCAM’s)—off our streets. We will fight back against attempts to make it harder for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives to revoke federal licenses from law breaking gun dealers, and ensure guns do not fall into the hands of terrorists, intimate partner abusers, other violent criminals, and those with severe mental health issues. There is insufficient research on effective gun prevention policies, which is why the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention must have the resources it needs to study gun violence as a public health issue.”
‘Republican lawmakers have said that the names of Trump transition team members were improperly unmasked by Obama administration officials. Obama administration officials have insisted that their unmasking requests were routine.’
‘President Obama’s former national security adviser Susan Rice said last April that the unmasking of Americans’ identities in certain U.S. intelligence reports was not done for political purposes. Asked if she sought the names of people or unmasked people involved in the Trump transition in order to spy on them or expose them, Rice said, “Absolutely not for any political purposes — to spy, expose, anything.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/director-of-national-intelligence-issues-new-guidelines-for-intel-report-unmasking/
‘Former national security adviser Susan Rice reportedly unmasked the identities of senior Trump officials in order to determine why the crown prince of the United Arab Emirates visited New York last year. Sources told CNN that Rice made the disclosure to the House Intelligence Committee last week.’
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2017/09/13/susan-rice-tells-house-investigators-why-she-unmasked-trump-officials/664035001/
Susan Rice: Why Yes–I Unmasked Senior Trump Officials
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2017/09/15/susan-rice-why-yesi-unmasked-senior-trump-officials-n2381570
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Story image for susan powers unmasking from Washington Times
Obama’s UN envoy Power faces questions over ‘unmasking’ requests
Washington Times-Jul 27, 2017
Last week former National Security Adviser Susan Rice, who said she made unmasking requests solely for legitimate security — as opposed to political — purposes, testified before a closed-door session of the Senate intelligence committee. Sources familiar with the investigation have told The Washington …
Obama official made ‘hundreds of unmasking requests,’ GOP …
Fox News-Jul 27, 2017
Intelligence chairman accuses Obama aides of hundreds of …
Highly Cited-The Hill-Jul 27, 2017
Story image for susan powers unmasking from Fox News
Samantha Power sought to unmask Americans on almost daily basis …
Fox News-Sep 20, 2017
Samantha Power, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, was ‘unmasking’ at such a rapid pace in the final months of the Obama … agencies received subpoenas in May explicitly naming three top Obama administration officials: Former national security adviser Susan Rice, Brennan and Power.
Samantha Power And Susan Rice: The Apparent Gruesome …
Townhall-Sep 21, 2017
Samantha Power allegedly tried to ‘unmask’ Americans on a daily …
New York Post-Sep 20, 2017
What We Still Don’t Know About Obama-Era ‘Unmasking’
Bloomberg-Sep 20, 2017
President Donald Trump and his supporters say the former national security adviser, Susan Rice, engaged in domestic political spying when she asked … His committee has learned that Obama’s ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, also made a number of unmasking requests in her final …
More from Jimmy Dore on what the Democratic Party stands for:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9KyR86CZ1E
For those not familiar, Jimmy Dore is a comedian and a progressive political activist. And a Bernie supporter.
What’s shocking to me is that I find myself agreeing with a number of his points. He falls short because he doesn’t seem to get that there is a “uni-party” and that’s what he’s objecting to.
By gun grabbing, I suppose you’re describing “sensible action to address gun violence”.
No…I wouldn’t use the word “sensible”. The 1994 AWB was ridiculous and I haven’t seen much better since then. Which we could debate, but since you’ve taken to summarily dismissing Ben’s statements we probably don’t have time.
‘a Bernie supporter’
Maybe we should ask the Sanders supporters what they think about the Democrat party’s commitment to democracy?
Inside Hillary Clinton’s Secret Takeover of the DNC - POLITICO …
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/…/clinton-brazile-hacks-2016-215774
Nov 2, 2017 - Before I called Bernie Sanders, I lit a candle in my living room and put on some gospel music. I wanted to center myself for what I knew would be an emotional phone call. I had promised Bernie when I took the helm of the Democratic National Committee after the convention that I would get to the bottom of …
Hillary Clinton Robbed Bernie Sanders Of The Democratic Nomination …
http://www.newsweek.com/clinton-robbed-sanders-dnc-brazile-699421
Nov 2, 2017 - Hillary Clinton’s campaign took over the Democratic National Committee’s funding and day-to-day operations early in the primary season and may have used that power to undermine her rival Senator Bernie Sanders, according to the party’s one-time interim chairwoman. The DNC official, Donna Brazile, …
Could Sanders have won primary that wasn’t ‘rigged’? - CNNPolitics
http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/04/politics/bernie-sanders-2016-election…/index.html
Nov 4, 2017 - (CNN)President Donald Trump isn’t the only one obsessed with the 2016 election. … He also said Sanders could have won. … Pocahontas just stated that the Democrats, lead by the legendary Crooked Hillary Clinton, rigged the Primaries!
Did the DNC cheat Bernie Sanders out of the Democratic nomination …
http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/11/did_the_dnc_cheat_bernie_sande.html
Nov 2, 2017 - In a damning Politico piece, former Democratic National Committee chair Donna Brazile alleges she has “proof” that Hillary Clinton “rigged” the nomination process against Bernie Sanders. Sanders’ supporters filed a class action lawsuit against the DNC earlier this year, accusing them of working to keep …
The DNC owes Bernie Sanders and all Dems an apology | TheHill
thehill.com/opinion/…/358389-the-dnc-owes-bernie-sanders-and-all-dems-an-apolog…
Nov 2, 2017 - It turns out, according to a shocking new book by former Democratic National Committee interim Chairwoman Donna Brazile, that the fix was in all along. The DNC had a secret deal with the Clinton campaign that made a mockery of the notion that the national party organization should be neutral in …
Former Sanders campaign manager: Don’t expect email list to be …
thehill.com/…/369158-former-sanders-campaign-chairman-dont-expect-email-list-to-…
2 days ago - Ellison, after losing to Perez, is now deputy chair of the DNC. The chairman of Michigan’s Democratic Party, Brandon Dillon, in a comment to Politico downplayed the importance of obtaining Sanders’s email list. “The fundamentals are what’s going to be important, not whether we have Bernie’s email list or …
Donna Brazile’s bombshell about the DNC and Hillary Clinton - Vox
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/…/2/…/donna-brazile-hillary-clinton-sanders
Nov 2, 2017 - A former Democratic National Committee chair on Thursday revealed the existence of a previously secret agreement that appeared to confirm some of Bernie Sanders supporters’ fears about the 2016 Democratic primary. Donna Brazile, a longtime Clinton ally who stepped in as DNC chair last year in the …
Donna Brazile Says She Has “Proof” Clinton Rigged the Primary …
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/…/donna-brazile-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders
Nov 2, 2017 - Although he eventually campaigned for Clinton after she clinched the nomination, Sanders spent the next several months claiming that the primary system was “rigged” against him, only to be roundly dismissed by party leadership. But according to Donna Brazile, who served as the interim D.N.C. …
Yah, Bernie rolled over for Hillary. In the end, he was a weasel, and maybe in an odd way, Hillary did us a favor.
I just happend to like how Dore lambasts the Democrats from the progressive point of view.
Sen. Al Franken Announces He Will Resign ‘In The Coming Weeks’
https://www.npr.org/2017/12/07/568909860/sen-al-franken-to-make-announcement-amid-calls-for-him-to-resign
“I am proud that during my time in the Senate I have used my power to be a champion of women and that I have earned a reputation as someone that respects the women I work alongside every day,” he said on the Senate floor. “I know there has been a very different picture of me painted in the last few weeks, but I know who I really am.”
Now THERE’S a guy with small hands.
they use the national security system to wiretap the opposing candidate, during an election mind you, based on made up stuff. And when they lose they continue to illegally wiretap the president elect in hopes of overturning a perfectly valid election.
Ben,
Unmasking isn’t directed wiretapping. Trump was never specifically unmasked, as reported in Bloomberg. And the standard of unmasking was followed, according to folks involved, so couldn’t be “made up stuff.” Lastly, unmasking isn’t illegal. This whole made-up scandal just reeks of “but her emails” and benghazi conspiracy crap.
I think you’ve chosen your narrative by choosing a team first, rather than looking at the evidence and nuance, the latter of which is as you do with the housing market in this blog. Sincerely, I don’t understand y’all attraction to the republican party. They seem to come up with the craziest of things to spout about.
Carl,
“No…I wouldn’t use the word “sensible”. The 1994 AWB was ridiculous and I haven’t seen much better since then. Which we could debate, but since you’ve taken to summarily dismissing Ben’s statements we probably don’t have time.”
What sort of sensible gun control would you opt for?
I know when I’ve bought all my weapons, the background check was a phone call and the only tracking that I had purchased the weapon was my receipt. There is/was no preventing me from buying and owning any of my weapons. And futhermore from that, the only things preventing those weapons from causing harm to someone is my choice to squeeze the trigger.
The democratic position is that there can be sensible controls injected into the purchasing process to prevent harm caused to others while protecting the 2nd amendment rights. I think you can agree to that.
‘Unmasking isn’t directed wiretapping. Trump was never specifically unmasked’
And you know this how? If they get to read what you said, you’ve been tapped.
‘I don’t understand y’all attraction to the republican party’
Feck the Republican party. In case you haven’t noticed they are just as against Trump as your “pure as the driven snow” Democrats. (Which 60 seconds of search-fu shows to be complete horse-hockey.) What we are seeing is the parties rolling over. It happens ever few decades. And we are seeing the demise of globalism. It isn’t about President Trump. This is manifesting itself all over the world in many countries in a variety of ways. Populism, throwing off the old guard. Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way.
To restore economic fairness, Democrats will fight against the greed and recklessness of Wall Street.
Really? The last time Democrats DID go to the mat to rein in Wall Street was 8 years ago, when they Occupied Wall Street. But, instead of dressing in suits, saying something relative, and acting ready to work a job and create value, those same Democrats set up hippie shop and began to party and commune as if it were the second coming of Woodstock — in fact many of them probably were at the original Woodstock. As a result, they got HOSED — literally — by that liberal hero Barack Obama. Is that how they want to “create middle-class jobs?”
Since Occupy, all I’ve seen — for the past THREE YEARS — is Democrats screaming “Racis” and “Transgender.” More recently, all I’ve seen is Democrats shutting down the government over illegal immigrants and clown-car marches over transgenders (again) and women demanding an equality that they already have.
(I do give credit to Elizabeth Warren, but one woman can’t stem the tide of identity politics.)
I had some democratic ideas. In fact I fought for them right on this very blog — kindly and reasonably. But the Dems have gone off the rails. Wake me up when the Dem party actually fights for that platform instead of playing the race/gender/globalism card and the impeach/22nd Amd/”ism” card.
I do give credit to Elizabeth Warren, but one woman can’t stem the tide of identity politics
Sanders/Warren would have been a great team. I never voted Democrat until Sanders came along, and I gained a lot of respect for Warren by watching her seething critique of banksters and their shenanigans. She was one of the few holding the Wall Street crooks feet to the fire.
What sort of sensible gun control would you opt for?
The intellectually honest kind that accepts the reality that anybody can get a gun at any time if they are determined to and no amount of harassment of the law abiding types is likely to change that much.
IMO the only intellectually honest way to increase control is to actually ban and confiscate all or some types of weapons (based on functionality, not cosmetics). Which I don’t support, but it would be an honest approach. Then we can have it out in congress and the courts. Then when it fails, let it go. Stop trying to sneak control in through the back door when emotions are high or the people are otherwise distracted. Those sorts of things guarantee I will never vote for such a party no matter how rational they might act at one moment in time.
so no ban on anything - machine guns, bazookas or howitzers, interesting
Since Occupy, all I’ve seen — for the past THREE YEARS — is Democrats screaming “Racis”
Who are the names of the people who scream the word and pronounce it that way, without the t at the end?
Also, did you see this story last year? Is there some problem with Speaker Ryan’s logic? If so, what is it?
Ryan: Trump’s comments ‘textbook definition’ of racism
But he’s better than Hillary Clinton, the House speaker said.
By HEATHER CAYGLE 06/07/2016 10:24 AM EDT Updated 06/07/2016 02:33 PM EDT
House Speaker Paul Ryan again rebuked Donald Trump for his attacks on a federal judge because of his Mexican heritage, saying the presumptive GOP nominee’s remarks are the “textbook” definition of racist comments.
Ryan said he “absolutely disavowed” Trump’s remarks, adding he doesn’t even understand the line of thinking behind Trump’s rationale.
“Claiming a person can’t do their job because of their race is sort of like the textbook definition of a racist comment,” Ryan said at a press conference in Washington Tuesday to unveil a new anti-poverty plan. “If you say something that’s wrong, I think the mature and responsible thing is to acknowledge it.”
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/paul-ryan-trump-judge-223991
The Democratic Party was founded on the promise of an expanded democracy…
Weren’t they the pro slavery party?
It’s so confusing!
Ryan said…
Mexico is not a “race”. It’s a place. Maybe DJ is a “placist”.
It’s interesting that we have, apparently, one of the Democrat party faithful here with us today, just as we are on the cusp of one of the biggest, if not THE biggest, Democrat-originated scandals breaking loose:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-18/explosive-shocking-and-alarming-fisa-memo-set-rock-dc-end-mueller-investigation
The FISA memo. 100 times Watergate. Yes, and feck the republicans for allowing it to get this bad. I guess it took a few young turks like Devin Nunes, Jim Jordan, Ron DeSantis and Matt Gaetz to push it into the open through sheer dogged determination, given all the stonewalling they got from the DOJ and FBI. I dunno what Gowdy’s photo is doing there. He’s a POS. And, I’m sorry to say, Sessions is a cringing weasel, and I used to like him.
And feck the republicans for giving us the Bush administration. Maybe all their dirty laundry will come out now on the basis of Democrat tit for tat.
Oh, yeah, and feck you, John Roberts.
Friggin’ shut down the DOJ, FBI and CIA. More dangerous to the US than North Korea.
The democratic position is that there can be sensible controls injected into the purchasing process to prevent harm caused to others…
Ability to harm.
What a joke. There are no restrictions on the ability to harm. You can make black powder from urine like the confederates did back in the day. No restrictions on cooking implements AKA Boston Marathon. No restrictions on the big conventional guns AKA Crew Operated Weapons. No restrictions on gas cylinders and an effective time fuse AKA one King Size cigarette (seven minutes). No restrictions on SUVs! Saw in a movie once a bridge taken out with a gasoline delivery tanker. A friend once built a rifle for me with which I could take out a dime at 200 yards every shot. There are no restrictions on imagination or psychosis.
THE biggest…
Eye dunno. The article has nothing but hysteria.
The right to vote is at the heart of our national vision.
No it isn’t. The right to pursue your own ends, unhindered, was the original vision. The original federal government was to be so small and so limited in its powers as to have little effect on people’s lives.
Voting is mostly what people do to try and take from others and restrict them from doing what they want.
The right to pursue your own ends, unhindered, was the original vision.
so right. well said.
The bans are in place with regard to acquiring an NFA (full auto receiver) produced prior to 1986. A 200 stamp tax can be applied for to purchase full auto receivers produced prior to 86. Suppressors can be purchased via the same process if your state allows NFA items.
But this is all an affront to the original intent of the 2nd Amendment which is that any able bodied person should be able to possess/own a similar weapon that an invading infantryman could carry. Today this would include full auto, select fire firearms, suppressors etc. Well regulated meant well practiced a the time. We had shooting clubs and ranges in many schools up until the 1950s and 60s.
We could keep the background check but it should be an instant check along with ditching the NFA regs and requirements. Problem with the background check system is that it can be expanded to deny for spurious reasons and fails in cases where it should not allow a pass (see recent TX church shooting).
Not to far off in the future: “I see that you have been referred to psychiatric counseling for your conservative beliefs but have failed to report to any re-education center. That is why your background check did not pass comrade.”
In order to pursue happiness you must also be able to defend that pursuit. ~ A contemporary Adams
Is there some problem with Speaker Ryan’s logic? If so, what is it?
I have answers for you, but I do not feel like getting into a battle with you. You have been reading all the media, I see, and you’re ready to dig in. You have your stable of loaded questions, logical fallacies, links, and pat arguments well-rehearsed and ready to go. To be fair, the conservatives used those same tactics 10-15 years ago, and I bristled against it then.
I don’t have the time or patience to go through it again.
Problem with the background check system is that it can be expanded to deny for spurious reasons and fails in cases where it should not allow a pass (see recent TX church shooting).
This hardly justifies throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Because the Texas shooter had domestic violence charges for assaulting his wife and the Air Force failed to transmit this information to National Instant Criminal Background Check System is not a very compelling argument to get rid of prohibitions on who should be able on own a weapon. Rights and responsibilities go hand in hand. We ought to be able to agree that convicted felons, those on terrorist watch lists, individuals convicted of domestic abuse, and those with serious mental health issues should not be able to obtain a gun without giving into the fear of slippery slope arguments about gun confiscation based on being a conservative.
Is there some problem with Speaker Ryan’s logic?
That’s a simple yes or no question. The question about who pronounces the word racist without enunciating the final letter is also pretty simple. You don’t have to read much media to see that there’s nothing there in that view of the world.
Stamp those racis feet Mikey.
I gained a lot of respect for Warren by watching her seething critique of banksters and their shenanigans. She was one of the few holding the Wall Street crooks feet to the fire.
Populist rhetoric is not enough. I lost the respect that I had for her (which was substantial) when she caved on QRM.
The right to vote is at the heart of our national vision. It is a core principle of the Democratic Party to maximize voter participation for all Americans.
Maximizing voter participate—even for conservatives? LOL—you are too funny. The Democratic Party LOVES to suppress turnout of conservatives.
I live in the Bay Area and have grown up the general Oakland area. It is unbelievable the amount of filth and homeless encampments that have overtaken many public spaces. This is also playing out in SoCal, and is creeping in on many smaller, more “rural” communities. It is a mess. And the general extreme progressive bend at all levels of government provides no solutions except to throw money at the problem.
This is one of the many reasons my family is moving to Idaho in 29 days. I am 40 years born and raised in CA, amazing what this state has become. I considered staying in CA, moving to a more rural area. Ultimately, you are still governed by the insane policies of SF/LA - you cannot escape it unless you leave the state.
I’m visualizing what the Bay Area would look like about 10 years after the “New California” split took place (if it did). Assuming New CA did away with all the sanctuary, welfare state, etc. stuff. The Bay Area would have more people living under tarps, than in proper homes.
Ultimately, you are still governed by the insane policies of SF/LA - you cannot escape it unless you leave the state.
Just make sure you don’t bring the problem with you, and seek to enact many of the same policies in your new ‘home’. This is what I fear the most — folks “fleeing” these problems of their own creation, just infesting their new locations with the same bad policies and problems.
You just described Florida.
Swear to god, I’d actually trade the illegals already living here for some of the animated vomit robots flooding in from New England, the mid-Atlantic AND Chicago. Although there are some decent folks among the bunch, they are in the minority.
Yes, very aware of this issue. I am not looking to change Idaho.
Hailey is a great place. Where are you headed in ID? Good luck on your new adventure.
Idaho has some serious crazies (I can attest to that, I was born there):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI_IisSpcCY
Keep Idaho weird!
Redmond, WA 98052 Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY On Plunging Housing Demand
https://www.zillow.com/redmond-wa-98052/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
‘he Biscuit Lofts, Alta Lofts and Beacon experiencing the greatest dips, according to the report. At the Biscuit Lofts, rents dropped from $4.63 per square foot to $3.49 per square foot.’
‘DTLA, which has been home to a flurry of new construction, has been the topic of much concern as industry leaders fear supply is outstripping demand. The deliveries of such luxury projects, like Metropolis, have increased competition in the area, likely causing a downturn effect on prices, the report showed’
This reminds me, where’s Nostradamus Watch?
Hangin’ with Jingle Biscuits at The Loft.
That’s a 25% decrease, not exactly trivial!
My son works in DTLA. I asked him about the apartment market there and he said the area is very seedy. He would not want his family to live there.
Interestingly, rents outside DTLA are softer now because of the glut in downtown. A few years ago, people were overbidding on apartment rents! No more.
Interestingly, rents outside DTLA are softer now because of the glut in downtown. A few years ago, people were overbidding on apartment rents! No more.
And yet we have posters here who repeatedly claim that gluts in one area of a city or one type of housing will not produce lower prices in other areas of the region or other housing types.
http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2018/01/15/going-going-reno-sparks-housing-inventory-hits-record-low/1030660001/
And this is what we are dealing with in Reno, NV.
Is that like the shortage of construction trades?
LOLZ at the most impoverished state in the country:
http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/369611-california-feels-targeted-by-trump
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-18 07:05:35
The best part about being homeless is you get to go camping every day.
https://youtu.be/zvCGtxeknSg
Heh, don’t laugh yet. We’re number 2! We try harder!
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-18/why-california-has-nations-worst-poverty-rate
I just hate what’s going on here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pffbsOfIV1M
Guess what is the second most impoverished state? Yep, Florida. I had no idea. Willing to bet that Miami and Orlando are driving that, too.
Was the Sebring area ever on your radar (for relocation)?
No, not ever. And I do mean ever. Why?
It has lakes and it’s away from the insane density of the east coast where I am.
At best it ends up being that one is only buying time from the inevitable.
We drove through there in the dead of summer on our way over to Ft. Pierce. The traffic was horrendous, lots of commercial trucks belching and farting and rumbling their way through the center of the state. Sebring may have lakes, but nothing like Lake Weir and nothing like the springs we have up here.
I get your point about buying time from the inevitable, though. That thought has crossed my mind.
You are in Bass Heaven.
“Tight knots.”
Cape Coral, FL 33914 Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY As Speculators Dump Coastal Properties
https://www.zillow.com/cape-coral-fl-33914/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
I can’t believe how many people think Idaho is the last paradise call some place praisidice kiss 😘 it good bye
http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/01/18/sean-hannity-monologue-memo-fisa-surveillance-shows-abuse-power-bigger-watergate
Big
if u bough stocks and homes at the low in 2009 u r a rich man.