When Supply Outstrips Demand
A report from Bloomberg on Canada. “The only thing that might be colder than Toronto in January is the city’s housing market. While the bleak mid-winter is never the best time to sell a home in Canada, a string of open houses in the country’s largest city were chillingly empty on a recent Saturday afternoon. Tougher mortgage rules went into effect on Jan. 1 just as higher interest rates began to bite, and the market’s on edge, waiting to see if a downturn that began last year will accelerate under the added pressure. Double-digit price growth was volatile and dangerous, said Simeon Papailias, co-founder of the Real Estate Center, real-estate management company. The new stress test will help make sure “that we don’t have unqualified people creating bidding wars,” he said. ‘Sellers are looking for the money they were getting in May, and that’s not a reality, it’s not going to happen,’ said Papailias.”
From Better Dwelling. “Canadian real estate prices were the fastest rising in the world, just a few months ago. Now we’re claiming the opposite title, as the market explores where prices should be. Newly released Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas numbers, show a decline in home prices for the third quarter of 2017. This is the first time in over five years, that Canadian real estate prices have declined for a quarter.”
“Canadian real estate prices dropped the most since the early 1990s, according to the the Dallas Fed. Real home prices, a.k.a. home prices adjusted for inflation, fell 3.82% in the third quarter of 2017. The single quarter decline is the first decline since 2012, and the largest since the first quarter of 1991. This is the largest single quarter decline in the world according to the Dallas Fed’s global index.”
From the Saskatoon Star Phoenix. “The head of the association representing Saskatoon’s real estate agents says while the city’s real estate market is correcting itself, he expects buyer’s market conditions to persist for at least a year, and perhaps as long as 18 months. A buyer’s market exists when a city’s housing supply outstrips demand, leaving potential buyers spoiled for choice while sellers are forced to slash prices or remove their homes from the market altogether. Saskatoon Region Association of Realtors (SRAR) chief executive Jason Yochim said while any ‘appropriately-priced’ home will sell, falling prices suggest the city’s residential real estate market is returning to balanced conditions.”
“Yochim, however, was quick to point out that declining prices — which may yet be influenced by stricter mortgage rules that came into effect at the beginning of 2018 — should not be cause for alarm. ‘Because the decline in prices and activity has been so slow, it wouldn’t appear to me to be a bubble. A bubble would be a more drastic short-term drop similar to what Calgary experienced a couple of years ago.’”
From CBC News. “Prospective home sellers in Saskatoon may be doing the city a favour by lowering their asking prices. While it may be a buyer’s market, this may actually not be the best time to buy a home, according to Josh Buchanan, a Saskatoon real estate analyst. ‘Buying now means you are buying an asset with a depreciating market value, which means it’s not a good time to buy, especially for those people who aren’t certain that they’ll be staying put long-term,’ Buchanan said, adding increasing interest rates and changing government regulations negatively impact the market.”
“Tuesday’s report showed evidence that overbuilding remains high, with numerous new condos and townhouses sitting on the market unsold following their completion. Buchanan said developers were slow to respond to overbuilding in the market and new construction continued, despite demand being satisfied. ‘The quickest and easiest way to sell off this excess supply is just to cut prices significantly to attract more buyers, just like we would see in any other type of market. Unfortunately, sellers are not eager to cut prices, which is preventing the excess supply from being sold off and the market from returning to balance,’ he said.”
From CTV News. “Some foreign investors, particularly those from China, are taking advantage of Canadian loopholes to become ghost immigrants, according to David Lesperance, a tax and immigration consultant with Lesperance & Associates. Lesperance cites one recent judge’s decision from a lawsuit in which the judge said Chinese millionaire Guoqing Fu bought multiple multi-million-dollar homes in Canada while claiming just $97 in worldwide income on his taxes.”
“‘That was really pushing the edge,’ Lesperance told CTV’s Your Morning on Monday. He says the situation would have gone unnoticed if Fu’s family and his partners, the Xia family, had not turned on each other and exposed their activities in court.”
“The judge’s ruling from the case indicates Fu ‘had a large and successful business in China,’ yet he only claimed ‘a miniscule worldwide income of $97.11′ on his Canadian income tax return, despite spending millions on three different homes. ‘This was an incredible assertion given the fact he owns one of the top 10 textile manufacturing and distribution companies, based in one of the biggest textile manufacturing centres of China,’ the judge’s decision said.”
“Lesperance suggests foreign buyers are pulling off these schemes in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal, where their homes are sitting empty despite high demand for housing in the area. ‘While they are getting the benefits of Canadian permanent residence and citizenship, they are, like this gentleman, not contributing to the tax base,’ Lesperance said. ‘They’re driving up house prices, they are denuding neighbourhoods of vibrancy and customers for local restaurants and businesses, and they’re not contributing to the tax base.’”
“Lesperance says the tactic is not isolated to one particular group. ‘It’s not endemic to one particular group of immigrants,’ Lesperance said. ‘It’s just endemic to immigrants who look at the situation and say, ‘It’s easy to cheat, I get all the benefits, the costs are low and they’re not chasing me.’ And at the end of the day, you get citizenship.’”
From the CBC News. “If all goes well, the arc of early adulthood is supposed to go: graduate, get a job, buy a house. We’re told this is the formula for success. With each milestone you reach, friends and family pat you on the back. And by the time you reach the final step, you know you’ve really made it. You’re a homeowner now. Congratulations. Welcome to the club.”
“But wait. Some smart young people in Calgary with more than enough money to buy are opting to rent. Yep. Rent. Or, as your uncle might say, ‘paying someone else’s mortgage.’ Are they crazy? Or do they know something the rest of us don’t?”
“Taking out a mortgage might make your mom happy, but a lot of things will have to go right for you to make a fraction of what she made on her first home. And if just one or two go wrong, you might find yourself trapped. Past returns are no guarantee of future returns. A cold, hard look at the numbers reveals how the scales of risk and reward can tilt in a different direction. It may run counter to conventional wisdom — the orthodoxy of ownership promulgated by governments, banks and realtors. It may prompt disapproving sighs from family members. It may even bring Tinder dates to an abrupt end.”
“It all comes down to math. Prices for a typical, detached house in our city have hovered around the $510,000 mark for the past few years, says the Calgary Real Estate Board. To buy that house today would likely cost you about $3,000 per month. That would cover the mortgage, property taxes, insurance and maintenance costs. If you wanted to rent a similar home, meanwhile, you can likely find something for $1,700 a month in the current market, which has seen vacancy rates increase fourfold during the downturn.”
“Right there, that’s $1,300 you’d save by renting — each and every month. Add that to the tens of thousands of dollars that you don’t have tied up in a down payment, and now you have some serious capital to feed into in any number of other investments.”
“Home ownership rates have been on the decline for the past decade among people under the age of 35. In the 2016 census, it was down to just 50.6 per cent. Among the baby boomer and older generations, by contrast, the rate has increased slightly to 83.1 per cent. Clearly, there’s little debate in that crowd about the wisdom of home ownership. And understandably so. ‘They kind of have a backwards-looking perspective on it,’ said Max Fawcett, a former Calgary resident who has written extensively on what he’s described as the religion of real estate.”
“The problem, he says, is prospective buyers are presented with an ‘imbalance’ of information. It comes from realtors and bankers with an incentive to sell homes. It comes from well-meaning parents who want their kids to benefit from the same returns they’ve enjoyed. It comes from governments who entice first-time buyers with the ability to borrow down payments from their RRSPs and claim tax credits for home renovations. ‘It makes it difficult for people to accurately assess the information that’s in front of them,’ Fawcett said.”
“‘I do think smart young people value keeping their options open,’ said Fawcett. ‘They know that they can buy whenever they want. That’s the great thing about being a renter … you can buy next week if the numbers change and the math starts to work in your favour or your life situation changes.’”
“In the meantime, they’re resisting the pressure to purchase. They’re more than happy to put away the money they save by renting, while enjoying the freedom and flexibility that brings. Some day, they may choose to buy a home. But for now, they won’t be swayed by their folks, their first dates or the fear of missing out.”
Is your portfolio well positioned for the Great Unwind?
What portfolio would you recommend?
Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio?
You bet. I just tucked away a bunch of gains. Buy low…SELL HIGH!
As the old real estate adage goes, let it crater…. Then buy later for 75% less…..
The stawk market is over 26k, and climbing today. YAWN. Yesterday’s little blip was nothing.
I would say that the past two days were more than a blip. But I will agree that a bullish week could easily erase that loss.
Speaking of portfolios, anyone else have friends who bragged everyday about Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies who suddenly went silent?
Other than Donk Craterton? No.
Which Donk do you mean today, cheeto? You seem to have several.
DebtDonkey
Kensington, MD Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Rental Rates Plunge
https://www.movoto.com/kensington-md/market-trends/
Right now they’re pitting their shants, holding out hope that it “recovers.” Once the whole thing tanks down below $1,000, the tears will flow.
To all Bitcoin investors, far and wide, … I dedicate this song …
https://youtu.be/p13yZAjhU0M
My day cannot be complete until I once again present to the HBB board The Bitcoin Investor’s Theme Song …
https://youtu.be/kyFyAqLtHq8
I sincerely hope each and all of you enjoy listening to this masterpiece. I know I will.
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Yawn. I suppose I will soon be visited by some of my customers who will be in need of sympathy and understanding. Time to load up on boxes of Kleenex …
https://cryptovest.com/news/almost-1-in-5-investors-are-going-into-debt-to-buy-bitcoin/
BITCONNECT- I LOST MY LIFE SAVINGS
252,288 views
Real Estate Student
Published on Jan 19, 2018
3,602 Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jZxeLX6VY0
Of course a bunch more videos pop up on the sidebar.
LOST $500,000 IN LIFE SAVINGS BECAUSE OF BITCONNECT (WHAT NOT TO DO)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcC0Qj6m710
Versus borrowing $400k for a house and paying back $1.5 million in interest, depreciation and taxes? I’m not sure which is worse.
You can’t live in your crypto wallet, HA.
Hello my good friend.
Boulder, CO Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY On Record High Vacancy Rate
https://www.movoto.com/boulder-co/market-trends/
BECAUSE OF BITCONNECT (WHAT NOT TO DO)….
Wow. Don’t listen to anybody. Only listen to someone who has been around for five years! Listen to these guys. This space. Our community.
Ya know, your space is the insane asylum.
Are you worried that the price of Bitcoin is being propped up? $10,000 per Bitcoin or bust!
Technology
Worries Grow That the Price of Bitcoin Is Being Propped Up
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/01/31/technology/bitfinex-bitcoin-price.html?referer=http://www.google.com/search?q=bitcoin&oq=bitcoin&gs_l=mobile-heirloom-serp.12…0.0.1.775.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0..0.0….0…1c..34.mobile-heirloom-serp..16.8.886.xlwXG_QnDts
Concerns are growing that activity on the virtual exchange Bitfinex has artificially propped up the value of Bitcoin and other digital currencies.
By Nathaniel Popper
Jan. 31, 2018
A growing number of virtual currency investors are worried that the prices of Bitcoin and other digital tokens have been artificially propped up by a widely used exchange called Bitfinex, which has a checkered history of hacks and opaque business practices.
In December, Bitfinex was subpoenaed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a United States regulatory agency. The news, first reported by Bloomberg on Tuesday and confirmed by a source familiar with the subpoena but not allowed to publicly discuss an ongoing investigation, led to a sell-off in most virtual currencies.
Whoever is propping up Bitcoin sure is doing a miserable job. And for an unregulated form of”currency”, there certainly is an abundance of MSM discussion of how to regulate it.
Bitcoin drops 9%, nears crucial make-or-break level of $9,000
- Bitcoin drops within $300 of $9,000 after comments from India’s finance minister raise worries of increased regulation.
- Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, the only major Wall Street strategist to issue formal price targets on bitcoin, said two weeks ago that $9,000 is a “major low” for bitcoin and “the biggest buying opportunity in 2018.”
- The $9,000 to $10,000 price range has been a difficult one for bitcoin to break below since first topping $10,000 in late November.
Evelyn Cheng | @chengevelyn
Published 56 Mins Ago
Updated 32 Mins Ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/01/bitcoin-drops-9-percent-nears-crucial-make-or-break-level-of-9000.html
I think bonds stabilized and the Dow went up today due to Kuroda increasing his bond buying yesterday.
Japanese bonds rise after BOJ boosts buying; 10-yr yield off 6-1/2-mth high
by Hideyuki Sano
January 31, 2018 / 1:59 AM
Reuters
TOKYO, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond prices edged up on Wednesday after the central bank boosted its buying in medium-term paper, a move seen as a warning shot against further rises in JGB yields and probably also aimed at dousing talk of an exit from its ultra-easy policies.
The Bank of Japan increased the amount it bought in government bonds with three to five years left to maturity to 330 billion yen ($3.03 billion) from 300 billion yen, a level it has maintained since September.
https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-bonds/japanese-bonds-rise-after-boj-boosts-buying-10-yr-yield-off-6-1-2-mth-high-idUSL4N1PQ2C4
——————————————–
The markets are twitchy right now from all the threats to reduce the amount of money being injected into the financial system by the central banks (even though the Fed was maintaining its balance sheet size, it was still buying a very healthy amount of MBS, to the tune of 289 billion last year with proceeds from the interest payments it receives). Earlier this month, there was some talk of Japan tapering, so it looked like the Fed, ECB and BOJ were going to taper, now it’s just Fed and maybe ECB. The BOJ IMO doesn’t need to change course until politicians start losing their jobs.
Japan’s central bank trims bond purchases, prompting taper talk
by: Reuters staff
January 9, 2018
Reuters
TOKYO/HONG KONG (Reuters) - Speculation the Bank of Japan may wind back its monetary stimulus this year gripped markets on Tuesday after the central bank trimmed the amount of its purchases of Japanese government bonds.
Traders appeared to latch on to the BOJ announcement that it will buy less of the long-dated bonds, sending the dollar down about 0.5 percent against the yen and the longer dated 20- and 40-year bond yields up to their highest in a month.
While the move was in line with the BOJ’s subtle reduction in its bond buying, the so-called ‘stealth tapering’, traders said it highlighted how sensitive markets are to a pullback in the massive stimulus that has been the center piece of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ‘Abenomics’ policies of the past 4-1/2 years.
“This goes to show that the amount of attention being given to the word ‘tapering,’ or any action from the BOJ in that direction that could be taken as a suggestion of it, there’s a lot of sensitivity around it,” said Bart Wakabayashi, branch manager for State Street Bank in Tokyo.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-forex-yen/japans-central-bank-trims-bond-purchases-prompting-taper-talk-idUSKBN1EY0FF
‘a former Calgary resident who has written extensively on what he’s described as the religion of real estate’
It’s strange to me that people don’t realize what it means to refer to shacks in this way. Like Canadians, Australians will say “our love for houses”. WTF? Nobody talked that way 20 or 30 years ago. And we didn’t have countless reality shows on the TV about shacks either. Talk about insanity.
Thirty years ago? I still have a little printed book with amortization tables in it. It starts with 7%. Now I spend my days in VIRTUAL.
R u old enuff to remember Buster Brown and Keds ?
Garanimals were all the rage in elementary school.
Do you remember when real estate wasn’t a “religion”? Do you not understand how insane that is? If you had aired an episode of that Waco show in the 90’s, people would have laughed at it. Now it runs year after year.
‘Now I spend my days in VIRTUAL’
You still haven’t told us how much you’ve lost.
IMHO, that Fix’r show jumped the shark. I get the shakes when I see ship lap!
Do you remember when real estate wasn’t a “religion”?
No I don’t not around here and I remember this kind of talk back in the late 1970’s working as a landscape construction owner on homes in Morrison ranch Agoura CA. Clay soil the worst.
I would say “these plants will die at the first hard frost happens every 5 years or so,” reply we only stay until equity has gone up enough to buy a even bigger home, this was a school teacher only a few years older than me. A few years later he was in a North Ranch home.
Oh yea and all the plants died a few years later, frost damage, turned black and died. I was out of the business at the time.
been some ups and downs since then though ..
Realtors are liars.
It’s been a religion in SoCal for a loonnng time.
An anecdote. In the mid 80’s, fed up with high prices in San Diego county, I went to look at houses in Temecula/Rancho California. Once I got there I realized that it was too far away, but since I was there I looked at the model homes. While there I overheard a couple discussing whether or not to put in an offer. She wasn’t too keen on the location. He told her that unless they bought right now that they would never have a house in SoCal, because the prices, even in boondocks Temecula, would soar into the stratosphere.
Real estate is definitely a religion, but maybe cult is a better way to describe it though. It definitely has it’s sacred cows, prophets (profits), doctrines, and worshipers.
As a long term renter, I can attest to the fact that “the pressure to purchase” is strong and unrelenting. Rats, I never made it to adulthood I guess as I never married, never procreated and never rented a house from a bank, er…I mean I never *bought* a house (took out a mortgage) . Yet, now at the tender age of 50-something I am the millionaire next door. I am self-employed, travel and take about 6-8 weeks off a year. I live way beneath my means because I prefer freedom over stuff and keeping up with the Joneses. (The Joneses are not really great company, anyway). I made this decision in my 20’s, have been self-employed for 24 years and I saved, saved, SAVED my entire life to get to this place.
Sorry! Not good enough! Misery loves company and we want you to be miserable like us so until you “OWN” something we will continue to look down our noses at you, you poor, poor lowly unfortunate renter!
“how long are you going to live in that apartment?”
“when are you going to get out of that dump?”
“buying a house is a great investment!”
“you’re paying someone else’s mortgage!”
“how will you build “equity”?
“real estate always goes up, what are you waiting for?”
“don’t you want to have more space?”
“don’t you want a yard?”
Funny, my relative is a well-off physician who decided he was sick of homeownership so he and his wife now rent (I’m sure it is a luxury apartment). He said he often hears surprised comments and inquiries (why?) about his renter status.
Honestly, I do wish that I had bought something 20 years ago so that everyone would just STFU. I am happy for my homeowner friends and family, if that’s what they want - awesome! Why do they care so much that I don’t own a house? Eventually, yes, I will most likely have to buy something to retire in.
But now? Sorry, it’s not “a great time to buy!” so I’ll hide out in my little works-for-me city flat while you’re shoveling ice dams off of your roof.
I love this post, thanks for sharing. It’s hard to go against the grain, but it can be financially rewarding.
Bitcoin losses are just beginning. Just wait until the tether breaks!
“Now I spend my days in VIRTUAL.”
How much have you lost, alphonso? HOW MUCH?
‘Excessive house prices Canada: Who’s to blame? Fingers pointed at foreign investment, but is it justifiable? The skyrocketing house prices in Canada, especially in two major cities, have been hot topics of discussion in Canada, and indeed in business and real estate circles around the world.’
Canadians are really hung up on this blame thing because they are politically correct. Years ago it would bring cries of racism to even mention foreign buyers. Now the government (or parts of it) is slamming the door. It’s all very unspoken and not just in Canada. Australia, New Zealand and the UK have all quietly popped their bubbles in one way or another. Maybe even China.
“Vancouver’s lead of a 15 per cent non resident transfer tax has just been instituted in Ontario as of Dec. 16, 2017, and will be applied not just to the superhot Toronto market, but to the much wider Greater Toronto and Hamiltaon Area (GTHA) and beyond.”
Is 15% high enough?
‘Yochim, however, was quick to point out that declining prices — which may yet be influenced by stricter mortgage rules that came into effect at the beginning of 2018 — should not be cause for alarm. ‘Because the decline in prices and activity has been so slow, it wouldn’t appear to me to be a bubble. A bubble would be a more drastic short-term drop similar to what Calgary experienced a couple of years ago.’
It’s unusual for a UHS to talk openly about comparative bubbles. BTW long before Vancouver and Toronto were oh so hot, Calgary was the white hot market up north. And what are prices in Saskatoon? Still up in the 300ks?
Looks like the year over year data are still up strongly for most Canadian markets:
https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/national-price-map/
Exceptions are Alberta, Saskatchewan and NWT, down just a few percent.
Saskatoon is sitting at $295,100, down 3.7% from December 2016.
Bay area is cratering much more quickly.
San Francisco, CA 94110 Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca-94110/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
Does this sound like a few percent?
“Planned homes in a new Whitby subdivision are on sale for up to $90,000 less than similar homes in the same development were a year ago. Good news if you’re house hunting now. Bad news if you bought into the development a year ago. Last January, Astrid Poei and her husband Sheldon Fisher purchased one of more than 100 lots in Phase 1 of the new Queens Common community. Phase 2 of the Mattamy Homes project re-launched this month with the same sized lots and floor plans offered at lower prices. Poei and Fisher say they were ’shocked’ to find out that homes and lots very similar to the one they purchased are now on sale for $75,000 less than what they paid. ‘It’s painful,’ Poei said in an interview. ‘There are no building materials on site, there is no foundation poured, so I don’t understand how we are paying more than someone who bought a couple of weeks ago.’”
“The answer, according to Mattamy Homes Canada president Brad Carr, lies in what was an unprecedented year of change in the GTA real estate market. ‘Recently prices in the GTA have drifted downwards,’ Carr said in an interview. ‘Obviously we need to respond to be able to sell at prices purchasers are willing to pay.’”
“Despite ’short term ups and downs,’ Carr is confident the homes will appreciate in value over time, as has been the case historically in the GTA, and says buyers who are in it for the long run have nothing to worry about. ‘Just like the buyers are extremely happy in a rising market, they have to appreciate that the same decision could go the other way,’ he said. ‘To come back a year later and see the same house that we bought is now $90,000 cheaper, that’s not cool,’ said Dionne Thompson, who also bought in Phase 1.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10323
Or this?
“It was tough at the top for people who sold their luxury homes in Vancouver last yea, according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s 2017 Year-End Top-Tier Real Estate Report. When you break those sales down into three price segments, the most expensive of them saw the biggest drop in any major Canadian city that the report covered. Out of all three, sales of Vancouver homes that cost $4 million or more fell by 33 per cent, steeper than either of the other two price segments in Vancouver, and more sharply than homes worth $4 million or more in Calgary, Toronto and Montreal. The total number of sales in this category — including condos and townhouses — fell from 573 in 2016 to 382 in 2017, marking their lowest level in three years.”
“Brad Henderson, president of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, said there’s a ’stalemate’ going on, ‘particularly in the higher end of the market.’ ‘I think there’s a fear of heights, and that the Vancouver prices have gotten to a point where many in the market are concerned that there isn’t necessarily the bandwidth for it to be able to continue going higher,’ Henderson said.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10314
“Toronto’s housing market continues to cool as prices fell last month and the supply of homes for sale spiked ahead of new stress-test rules that went into effect this week. The benchmark home price index fell in December for the seventh consecutive month, according to data released Thursday by the Toronto Real Estate Board. The index has fallen 8.9 percent since May — the largest seven-month decline in the history of data going back to 2000.”
“Active listings in Toronto were up 172 percent from a year earlier, suggesting sellers were trying to sell before new mortgage lending regulations went into effect on Jan. 1. Toronto’s housing market decline has mainly been in the detached home segment.”
“With 2017 behind us, for the first time in a decade, so may be some of the highest housing prices. Real estate agent Steve Saretsky says the average price of detached homes in Vancouver fell 6.5 per cent last year. Most of the price movement was at the higher end of the market, he said. Saretsky says single family home sales have been soft for about 18 months. ‘I think with those weak sales, it has allowed inventory to creep up and that’s put a damper on prices,’ said Saretsky.”
“Overseas money coming into the Vancouver real estate market has dropped off significantly, he said. As well, there has been the implementation of a foreign buyers tax and new mortgage rules. ‘I think the impact is obviously pretty noticeable,’ said Saretsky.”
“In 2017, there were 2,434 single family home sales in Vancouver. That’s the lowest since 2,281 sales in 2008 and well off the peak of 3,946 sales in 2015. Saretsky, however, expects Vancouver home prices will continue to drop but stops short of saying the bubble has burst. ‘I don’t want to be the guy to call it, but it’s definitely a change in direction.’”
“The number of property sales in Fort St. John jumped in 2017 compared to the previous year, though selling prices continued to trend downward, according to numbers published by the BC Northern Real Estate Board. In Fort Nelson, things were not quite as rosy. The Northern Rockies Regional Municipality saw a 30 percent reduction in the average price of a single-family detached home.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10306
How bout that, 30%.
A couple of years from now they’ll report that vacancy of for sale homes has gone up.
How much of down payment did you pay?
If not close to $75,000 - tell them you will walk. And will sue to get the down payment back too.
I bet “Queens Common Community” would negotiate very much in your favor…
+++++
Poei and Fisher say they were ’shocked’ to find out that homes and lots very similar to the one they purchased are now on sale for $75,000 less than what they paid. ‘It’s painful,’ Poei said in an interview. ‘There are no building materials on site, there is no foundation poured, so I don’t understand how we are paying more than someone who bought a couple of weeks ago.’”
Looks like QT is showing up in the 10 year. That rate is up ~ 30% between Sep 2017 and now the 30 year mortgage is 4%+.
Yeah, just like watching paint dry…
‘Canadian real estate prices were the fastest rising in the world, just a few months ago. Now we’re claiming the opposite title’
Albany, OR Housing Prices Plunge 18% YOY As Housing Market Craters
https://www.movoto.com/albany-or/market-trends/
QE Unwind + DJT New Tax Laws + Rising Interest Rates = Tipping point
+++++
Stocks Spooked Again As 10Y Yield Spikes To New Cycle High
ZeroHedge - 01/31/2018 - 10:57
The 10Y Treasury yield just spiked to 2.7387% - its highest since April 2014…
So I am thinking a few things…
1. Why are you drooling?
2. Why can’t there be just ONE “Kennedy” who is not a flaming leftist? Just one who believes in the Constitution, the rule of law and fiscal responsibility.
3. Isn’t this very Keynesian economics? I mean - we could really boost the economy by building and tearing down walls…
+++++
KENNEDY TO TRUMP: ‘BUILD A WALL AND MY GENERATION WILL TEAR IT DOWN’
grabien | Jan 30, 2018
Rep. JOE KENNEDY III [D-Massachusetts]:
America, we carry that story on our shoulders.
You swarmed to Washington last year to ensure that no parent has to worry if they can afford to save their child’s life.
You proudly marched together last weekend thousands deep on the streets of Las Vegas and Philadelphia and Nashville.
You sat high atop our mom’s shoulders and held a sign that read “Build a wall and my generation will tear it down.”
I streamed his speech on C-SPAN Radio last night so I didn’t see the drool until today.
Sad.
I tried to watch but it was too repulsive. Drool running down his chin with a straw man argument to start things off.
Why can’t there be just ONE “Kennedy” who is not a flaming leftist?
They shot him, didn’t they?
Boom! And there it is, the truth hurts - but probably not as much as a bullet through the skull.
Weren’t there two?
Well, the reason why the second one got it was that he promised to find out who did in his brother, and the deep state couldn’t have that, now could they?
‘Merika!
“Why can’t there be just ONE “Kennedy” who is not a flaming leftist?”
Because they would be prosecuted for their crimes.
“Why can’t there be just ONE “Kennedy” who is not a flaming leftist?”
What about Nelson Rockfeller ? He donated money secretly to Negro causes.
I had a Professor who ran Adlai Stevenson’s campaign. After Robert Kennedy was assassinated he said “America just died.” The Professor later was part of William Buckley’s circle.
The Kennedy’s are giving Hi.Anus back to the Indians
2banana: 1. Why are you drooling?
I read the comment of the night yesterday: “Chapstickaquiddick.”
What I also gave me a chuckle was reading the headlines on Google News this morning, stating how the SOTU was essentially a “total disaster.” While polls of the speech showed a 70 to 75 percent approval rating.
2banana’s Rule:
Conservatives and more than happy to live under the same laws and taxes they want for everyone else.
Liberals/Progressives expect to exempted from the same laws and taxes they want for everyone else.
Now those are some crumbs!
+++++
Democracy Dies in Dismal Retirement Plans Union: WaPo stingy on raises, retirement
Free Beacon | 1/31/18 | McMorris
The world’s richest man has drawn the ire of Washington Post workers who are displeased with union contract negotiations.
On Tuesday, the Washington Post Guild, a member of the Washington-Baltimore News Guild, went public with its dissatisfaction with the newspaper’s contract offers after several months of negotiation. The union fumed after the newspaper offered its reporters an average raise of $520 per year and refused to increase its current retirement contribution match of 1 percent of employee salary even as it asked for severe cuts in severance pay and layoff procedures.
The company’s opening salvo did not reflect its return to profitability, according to Kunkle. It offered a two-year contract that included a $600 lump-sum payment to reporters in 2018 with raises of just $8 per week in the second year.
Retirement benefits remain the largest divide. The union allowed the Post to reduce its 401(k) match to 1 percent in 2014—the year before Amazon founder and current World’s Richest Man Jeff Bezos bought the paper—to help deal with a struggling financial situation. Workers expected retirement benefits to return to normalcy as the paper’s condition improved. That has not happened, according to Kunkle. The Washington Post 401(k) match rate is dismal compared with the rest of the country, according to a July report from the Washington Post.
Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos bought the Post in 2013 for $250 million. Bezos earned $20 billion in the opening weeks of January, further cementing his status as the world’s richest man with an estimated net worth of $116 billion.
This blog continously offers up to the reader a never-ending supply of jokes:
“Workers expected retirement benefits to return to normalcy as the paper’s condition improved.”
And I am sure that the union is a closed-shop-must-join-the-union-as-a-condition-of-employment-give-99.9%-to-democrats kind of a union.
They don’t see the irony.
“They don’t see the irony.”
Most jokes have only one punch line. This joke has two.
As one satirist put it, “Under communism you buy everything from a single state outlet, whereas under fully-mature capitalism you buy everything from Amazon.” -Karl Sharro
“2banana’s Rule:
Conservatives and more than happy to live under the same laws and taxes they want for everyone else.
Liberals/Progressives expect to exempted from the same laws and taxes they want for everyone else.”
Get some new material. It all sounds so nice and twinkly, but I didn’t exactly seen any “conservative” lawmakers rushing to take Obamakare in place of their healthcare plan. They exempted themselves from it, even though “convervative” Supreme Court justice John Roberts confirmed it as law.
Speaking of the SCOTUS, why was Gorsuch looking like thunder last night? Was he mirroring Corey Booker?
Please note: obamacare passed without a single republican vote.
So “they” equals your democrat betters.
And THEY specifically exempted themselves from obamacare. Along with their union lap dogs.
“Liberals/Progressives expect to exempted from the same laws and taxes they want for everyone else.”
“They exempted themselves from it, even though ‘convervative’ Supreme Court justice John Roberts confirmed it as law.”
Yup. That small detail is never mentioned.
Right, it’s never mentioned. Also never mentioned is how “conservative” Saint Ronnie Reagan enacted the amnesty that opened the floodgates to the cockamamie immigration situation we have today. But he didn’t have to live with it, we do. Think he’d have been happy to live with this crap? Doubt it. And Nancy would have been horrified.
How about the “conservatives” who repealed Glass Steagall (with Billy Jeff’s help)? Now there was a real bi-partisan screwing. I bet they don’t have to live with the consequences of that! Oh HELL no. They reap the rewards.
Oh, hey, how about the conservatards who brought us the Iraq War and turned the Middle East into an abattoir? Aren’t we just deeeeelighted to live with the consequences of that? Ain’t that just peachy? Goody-goody!
Hey, 2-ban, count me out. Eff conservatardism anyway. It’s populism for me.
an average raise of $520 per year… Bezos earned $20 billion…
Wasn’t young Kennedy railing about CEOs that needed to be taxed because they earn x times more than the average employee?
“Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos bought the Post in 2013 for $250 million. Bezos earned $20 billion in the opening weeks of January, further cementing his status as the world’s richest man with an estimated net worth of $116 billion.”
How much is enough for one person? Meanwhile, Amazon Flex is burning out people and their vehicles for a pay rate that’s effectively below minimum wage, all things considered.
Bozo Bezos - raping the world and its inhabitants.
I like to call him the Bezoar. Here is what a bezoar is:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bezoar
Check out the photos. They actually made jewelry out of these things.
Are there HBBers in Canada????
The math is easy. Not falling for the snizzle is the hard part!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20n-cD8ERgs
+++++
“It all comes down to math. Prices for a typical, detached house in our city have hovered around the $510,000 mark for the past few years, says the Calgary Real Estate Board. To buy that house today would likely cost you about $3,000 per month. That would cover the mortgage, property taxes, insurance and maintenance costs. If you wanted to rent a similar home, meanwhile, you can likely find something for $1,700 a month in the current market, which has seen vacancy rates increase fourfold during the downturn.”
“Right there, that’s $1,300 you’d save by renting — each and every month. Add that to the tens of thousands of dollars that you don’t have tied up in a down payment, and now you have some serious capital to feed into in any number of other investments.”
Gosh, I think there’s a poster here who regularly says, “why buy when you can rent for half the price”. Where are all the loons who regularly denounce him?
Losing mucho Loonies on paying too much for a house?
To be fair, loonyville Toronto is the only instance where I’ve seen rent at half the cost of a mortgage on a comparable property.
The house I rented while the kids were finishing HS was $400/mo. For sale for $80K.
Granted, we are very close to Toronto.
Redmond, WA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Housing Correction Expands Across State
https://www.zillow.com/redmond-wa-98052/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Stop posting lies, Housing Analyst. Anybody in the entire Seattle area knows that this is untrue.
Boots on the ground data my good friend…. boots on the ground data.
Newcastle, WA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY On Skyrocketing Housing Inventory
https://www.movoto.com/newcastle-wa/market-trends/
1. The price is way too high?
2. Insane property taxes?
3. Needs a ton of deferred maintenance and upkeep?
+++++
Why Don’t People Want to Buy Manhattan’s Spectacular Mansions?
Bloomberg - James Tarmy - January 31, 2018
The mansion was listed at $44 million in 2014. A year later it was taken off the market, only to reappear in 2016 for $34.95 million, where it languished for a year and a half, according to Zillow. In October the price was cut yet again: It’s now listed with Leslie J. Garfield & Co., a boutique real estate agency that specializes in town house sales, for $29.95 million, almost 33 percent below its original asking price.
The very top of New York’s real estate has sagged over the past two years as a series of new buildings aimed at the world’s richest has flooded the market. “The [Manhattan] market is softer at the top and then gets tighter as you move lower,” says Jonathan Miller, president and chief executive officer of the appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. “And the town house market is at the top.” Although town houses represent only about 2 percent of Manhattan real estate transactions, the trend is clear, particularly at prices above $15 million: Mansions have gone out of style.
“Some sellers have unrealistic expectations, and those are the houses that are not selling,” he says. “But if you have a real seller who understands the market and the economy and lets you reduce [the price] 5 percent, then it will find a buyer.” Miller echoes this sentiment. “A lot of inventory on the market suffers from a heavy dose of aspirational pricing,” he says. “And then the listings sit on the market for a while, and that creates a perception that the market is weaker than it is.”
Hmmm…
Taxes matter!
Uncontrolled immigration matters!
++++++
Rich Folks Are Fleeing London and Lagos, Wealth Report Shows
Bloomberg - January 30, 2018 - Jeanette Rodrigues
Wealthy Londoners are leaving the city as new taxes make it expensive to inherit and invest, and as Brexit prompts rich Europeans living in the U.K. capital to return home, a new report shows.
This puts the U.K. financial hub in the same category as Lagos and Istanbul, which are also seeing net outflows of rich people, according to the Global Wealth Migration Review published this month. About 5,000 high net-worth individuals left the U.K. during 2017 and only about 1,000 arrived, the report shows.
Losing wealthy individuals is normally a sign of trouble in the political economy of a country. Rich people are often the first people to leave, because they can — unlike the middle class or the poor.
Cities that saw large inflows of HNWIs include Auckland, Dubai, Montreal, New York, Tel Aviv and Toronto, the report showed.
FWIW, while I’m not crazy about London, I’ll take it over Lagos or Istanbul any day.
Are you saying Istanbul and Lagos are sh!tholes?
I STRONGLY suggest that people go to google maps and do a few street views of Lagos. Seriously. Just drop around randomly 4-5 times.
Housing in Lagos is expensive? Uh, I’m not sure that there *is* any “housing” in Lagos. AT ALL.
OK wait, there appears to be some on the southern strip, on the Atlantic beaches. And just when I thought it couldn’t get any worse, I went closer to the lagoon and found the “Makoko Community,” where Google didn’t dare to go. It’s a shantytown on stilts in the murky water(?) (or is it land)? And out in the water, they get around on wooden raft-bridges…
“……a lawsuit in which the judge said Chinese millionaire Guoqing Fu bought multiple multi-million-dollar homes in Canada while claiming just $97 in worldwide income on his taxes.”
In other words - Fu is say F.U. to Canada and taking advantage of the rigging of the system.
Can Multifamily Sector Keep Up With Rising Demand?
https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/157783/Multifamily%20Snapshot%20-%20January%202018.pdf?t=1517413016330
Multifamily demand has risen to its highest level in more
than 25 years (which roughly equates to the duration
of one generation) thanks to demographic trends,
population growth, and changing consumer preferences.
More than nine million new renters signed on in the past
10 years alone, the largest decade-over-decade increase
ever measured. With elevated demand, absorption has
kept pace with deliveries.
As if there are people who would really really like to be in multifamily.
Boston, MA 02114 Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/boston-ma-02114/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Rosenstein is so scrude.
Who is Rosenstein?
Deputy AG, De-facto head of the Injustice Dept., since Sessions is buys taking naps and laxatives.
Recommended Trump fire Comey, then turns around and appoints Mueller as Special Prosecutor to investigate Trump and his associates for Russian collusion, and anything and everything else, past, present and future, including obstruction of injustice, for firing Comey.
First name Rod. Middle name Snake in the Grass.
About to have his legal career go up in smoke, as soon as the memo is released. Begging Trump not to release it.
“Begging Trump not to release it.”
The way Pelosi was babbling that must be some pretty incriminating stuff.
I was thinking the exact same thing. She really seems overwrought these days. Do you still have that clip of her “womansplaining” (or as I like to say it, “femsplaining”) things to the DACA crowd?
The struggle to conceive with frozen eggs:
“Brigitte Adams caused a sensation four years ago when she appeared on the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek under the headline, “Freeze your eggs, Free your career.” She was single and blond, a Vassar graduate who spoke fluent Italian, and was working in tech marketing for a number of prestigious companies. Her story was one of empowerment, how a new fertility procedure was giving women more choices, as the magazine noted provocatively, “in the quest to have it all.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/national/wp/2018/01/27/feature/she-championed-the-idea-that-freezing-your-eggs-would-free-your-career-but-things-didnt-quite-work-out/?utm_term=.79628767e585
You can “have it all.”
You can have cats, boxed wine, and Xanax, LOLZ.
“She was single and blond, a Vassar graduate who spoke fluent Italian, and was working in tech marketing for a number of prestigious companies.”
WTF… not a blonde anymore?
did any of u pukes watch the state of the union? takeaways?
DebtDonkey
Atlantic Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/atlantic-beach-fl/market-trends/
I know u watched it crowman. u have drank the trump kool aid.
“have drank”
I’ll just let that hang out there.
I’ve been curious about how inventory can purportedly be so low, yet sales so high, last matched in 2002 and 2007, solidly into bubble territory (monthly house sales activity is surprisingly hard to come by).
Monthly house sales 1969 - 2009: https://www.huduser.gov/periodicals/ushmc/fall09/hist_data.pdf
Monthly house sales 2014-2017: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S
Gap is not intentional. Data is simply hard to come by. But it gives current sales volume if you hover on the line in the second link.
Page 7 of the PDF by the way.
Data provided by the NAR, right?
Census points to the NAR’s website, which says historical data is available for purchase. And frankly, their data is suspect because they’re a sales association, not a research association. Their mission is to advance the interest of their members, and if for some reason, data would hinder that mission, they’re under no obligation to report it. FRED data is artificially constrained, going back to only 2014. One would think somewhere in the US government there would be clean historical data.
But I shouldn’t be surprised. I remember back when the death penalty was being debated in Maryland (among the bluest of the blue states - it was repealed), recidivism data on the DOJ site was easily available, and had been for well over a decade at least. The recidivism data was mentioned to a Maryland politician, and a few days later, the federal recidivism data was removed. It sounds like conspiracy talk, but it’s a simple fact I observed. It simply underscores another simple point - how individually-driven and personal-agenda-oriented the various pieces of the government (and any organization) really are.
Why do you say sales are so high? When I look at the Census numbers is says 608k new homes were sold in all of 2017. By contrast, 2003 to 2006 were all over 1 mil new homes sold with 2005 being the high water mark at 1.2 million new homes sold. So we are about 1/2 of what we were then.
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/soldann.pdf
Resales. Not new shanties.
Now: 5.5 million resales + 600K new sales = 6.1 million sales
Then: 5.5 million resales + 1 million new sales = 6.6 million sales
500K difference in total sales. 500K/6.1 million is about 8%, slightly less if you use 6.6 million.
Also, the NAR is concerned mainly with the resale market, right? NAR doesn’t get involved in new home sales as much, does it? New home sales are done by approaching the builder directly, in my limited experience. NAR is the organization complaining about low inventory.
Thanks for the clarification Neuromance.
Organic housing demand is still at 1997 levels.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MoH5NmHcm2U/We_j3oUjJkI/AAAAAAAAsqI/DmLzCqtqn-QQCM226Z9q1lhqsJEQkNgEACLcBGAs/s1600/MBAOct252017.PNG
More lies, Housing Analyst?
You left off the line about how to use the dropdown menu.
Hello my good friend.
Murphy, TX Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/murphy-tx/market-trends/
Nas — The Genesis (1994):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhkXaipxH-E
Memo?
MAXINE WATERS: Russia is out to get me!
FEBRUARY 1, 2018
BY KYLE OLSON
Maxine Waters now sees a Russian behind every mailbox and lamp post
169 Comments
The American Mirror
Nosmo King • an hour ago
Enigmas
(1) Isn’t it weird that in America, our flag and our culture offend so many people, but our benefits don’t?
(2) How can the federal government ask U.S. citizens to pay back student loans, when illegal aliens are receiving a free education?
(3) Only in America are legal citizens labeled “racists” and “Nazis,” but illegal aliens are called “Dreamers”.
(4) Liberals say, “If confiscating all guns saves just one life, it’s worth it”. Well then, if deporting all illegals saves just one life, wouldn’t that be worth it?
(5) I can’t quite figure out how you can proudly wave the flag of another country, but consider it punishment to be sent back there.
6) The Constitution: It doesn’t need to be rewritten, it needs to be reread.
(7) William F. Buckley said: “Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other points of view, and are then shocked and offended when they discover there are other points of view.”
(8) Joseph Sobran said: “‘Need’ now means wanting someone else’s money. ‘Greed’ means wanting to keep your own. ‘Compassion’ is when a politician arranges the transfer.”
Fantastic list. Perfectly captures the mentality.
Funny to see William F. Buckley and Joseph Sobran just a sentence apart.