That Kind Of Supply Is A Little Too Much
A report from KRON 4 in California. “San Francisco is at the heart of the Bay Area housing crises. You see construction everywhere, but most of us are priced out of being able to afford to live in a luxury high-rise. ‘We have 1,000 apartments that are in, what we call, the pipeline,’ said Karoleen Feng, who is with the Mission Economic Development Agency. ‘Some of them are built out, and some of them–we have about 500 that are waiting to be kicked off.’”
“MEDA uses city subsidies to buy old buildings where tenants are on the brink of eviction and keep their rents at affordable levels–which for most families is under $1,000 a month. In the last four years, MEDA has purchased 19 buildings through ’small sites.’ By 2020, MEDA says it hopes to own at least 2,000 apartments in the Mission District. ‘Having affordable housing is the first step to rebuilding this as a Latino hub,’ Feng said.”
The Toledo Blade in Ohio. “On Tremainsville Road south of Alexis, there’s a six-building, 72-unit apartment complex that motorists often scoot past without so much as a passing glance. But It was visible enough last May when word leaked out the 45-year-old complex soon might be available for sale. A buyer from Ypsilanti, Mich., immediately submitted an offer of $2.2 million, which the owners accepted before Hidden Village could even be listed. The sale price might seem surprising, given how the complex last sold nine years ago for $1.65 million and had not received much updating.”
“But such occurrences are common now as demand for properties in Toledo’s apartment market has become red hot. The result has been a sizable amount of complex ‘flipping,’ though not in the traditional sense. ‘It’s not like house flipping. That’s not what’s going on. It’s not like someone put some lipstick on a property and flipped it,’ said Harlan Reichle, managing partner of the Reichle Klein Group, a Toledo commercial real estate firm.”
“Tony Plath, a Reichle Klein real estate agent who handled the Hidden Valley Square transaction, said Toledo used to be a market that was overlooked but is now attracting buyers from all over the Midwest, the East Coast and the West Coast. After spending a minimum amount to spruce up property, they can bump the rent by $10 or $20, Mr. Plath said. ‘What a $10 per unit value will mean to the value of the property is astonishing,’ he said. ‘A $10 bump in rent on a 100-unit complex is $12,000. What does that mean to the value? At an 8 percent cap rate that equates to $150,000 more in value to the property. A $20 bump in rent increases the value by $300,000.’”
“The quest for Toledo apartment complexes has led to bidding wars on properties, with six to 10 offers arriving for some complexes, Reichle Klein said. ‘These owners of properties are ready to move on and they know the market is hot. They’re seeing a price per square foot that they’ve not seen before, so they’re anxious to get out,’ Mr. Plath said. ‘And now there’s a larger pool of buyers. We’ve had people from Mexico, from Canada looking to spend their money here.’”
The Charlotte Observer in North Carolina. “When Richard Simmons moved into his one-bedroom apartment in Matthews, the widower assumed he’d be able to afford it for years to come. Simmons started off paying $650 a month rent to live in Paces Pointe. But that was 2012. Now, the base rent is up to $867, and a raft of new mandatory fees – for cable, package delivery and ‘valet trash’ service – mean Simmons pays $946 a month, or nearly a 50 percent increase over the past few years.”
“Simmons is one of thousands of tenants in Charlotte whose rent is rising in part because of a ‘value add’ deal. It’s a term developers use for buying older apartments, spending several thousand dollars to renovate units with improvements such as new floors, granite counters and updated appliances, then raising the rent. ‘We’ve been fairly alarmed at the rate which apartments are flipping,’ said Julie Porter, president of the Charlotte Mecklenburg Housing Partnership. ‘All of a sudden you’ve got an apartment that used to be $700 (for rent) that’s more than $1,000. We’re losing units faster than we can build them.’”
From Fox 13 Memphis in Tennessee. “The owner of Kimball Cabana Apartments said he is out of money, and a new investor plans to buy the property after the apartments undergo foreclosure. Judge Larry Potter had choice words for the apartment owner, calling the 2015 purchase of the property a ‘bad business decision.’ Allen Walsh is the owner of the property, which is managed by Mississippi Apartments, LLC. ‘All of our money just got eaten up in trying to rehab the units,’ Walsh told FOX13. ‘We have finally run out of money. It just took more than we figured on.’”
From Crain’s Cleveland Business on Ohio. “The owner of the 950-suite North Pointe Apartments in Euclid has tossed in the towel and had its request granted that the lender assign its $38 million loan to a firm specializing in handling distressed loans. The loan behind the troubled four-building complex of apartment towers, two as tall as 20 stories, on Feb. 5 was assigned to the Miami office of Rialto Capital Management, according to Cuyahoga County land records.”
“Woes at North Pointe Apartments have included a sidewalk protest of conditions at the property by tenants last summer that was covered by WEWS-TV, Channel 5. Trepp reports show tenants also are voting with their feet, as its occupancy fell to 67% last September from 86% at the end of 2016. The loan was 60 days delinquent at the end of 2017, Trepp reported.”
“The property gained a dubious marquee presence in the national commercial real estate world when Trepp reported it was the largest distressed loan in the U.S. in January, as loan payments had not been made for 60 days. The notice was part of a report on the state of the U.S. multifamily property business undertaken because of long-running growth in the nation’s apartment market. While focus was on glitzy and elegant new apartment properties, the distress poster child came from the dated precast concrete towers astride Lake Erie.”
From Community Impact in Texas. “Northwest Austin’s apartment rental market might be finally showing signs of stabilization as occupancy rates and rental rates have begun trending downward. For the last two years, the city of Austin has seen an increase in the number of new apartment units coming online, totaling about 11,000 per year in 2016 and 2017, but construction is showing no signs of slowing down, said Bruce McClenny, president of Houston-based ApartmentData, a site that tracks occupancy and rates of apartments in major Texas and U.S. cities.”
“‘That kind of supply, even in the face of very good job growth and a very good economy, is a little too much,’ he said. ‘It all of a sudden becomes more of a renters market.’”
“Occupancy has been trending downward since peaking in June 2013.”
From The Jewish Voice on New York. “The Manhattan rental market is overflowing, causing landlords to offer rental concessions and price reductions in price in order to entice new renters, Bloomberg reported. Concessions jumped to yet another record in January, with 49 percent of newly signed leases coming with some sort of special offer, appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate concluded in a report. Concessions in January, reached the highest level seen since appraisal firm Miller Samuel started tracking them back in October 2010.”
“Concessions include, rent-free months, gift cards, then topping off those enticements with reductions in price. Hal Gavzie, who oversees leasing for Douglas Elliman was reported as saying: ‘Landlords have finally realized, ‘OK, we have to adjust these prices because the concessions aren’t doing as much… Customers are looking past the concessions being offered and just looking for the best deals they can find.’”
“Rents fell last month in almost every Manhattan neighborhood, including some of the borough’s priciest, according to data compiled by brokerage Citi Habitats. On the UWS, the median was $3,450, down 2.8% from a year earlier, while on the UES, they declined 5.3% to $3,185, the brokerage said, Bloomberg reported. The average rental price in Manhattan several years ago was $3,800 (2013).”
“For some fun and interesting perspective, the average price for a rental in all of New York City in the 1960’s was $200 a month, the 70’s $335 a month, the 80’s average was $1700, and the 90’s average for the 5 boroughs was around the same as last month’s average of around $3,295 for Manhattan apartments.”
‘What a $10 per unit value will mean to the value of the property is astonishing…A $10 bump in rent on a 100-unit complex is $12,000. What does that mean to the value? At an 8 percent cap rate that equates to $150,000 more in value to the property. A $20 bump in rent increases the value by $300,000.’
And then they can get a government backed, cash out refi and maybe even non-recourse loan! Crikey, this is the mother load!
Wait an minute. If a $10 bump is magically 150k yellenpesos, what is a $10 decrease in rents?
‘On the UWS, the median was $3,450, down 2.8% from a year earlier, while on the UES, they declined 5.3% to $3,185, the brokerage said, Bloomberg reported. The average rental price in Manhattan several years ago was $3,800 (2013).’
Oh dear…
Hmmmm … if one can effectively decrease the rents while nominally- or officially - keeping the rents the same then one can save the yellenpesos.
Effectively decreasing rents can be done by throwing in various freebies that a tenant would previously be charged for (think free utilities, think first month free).
“(… think first month free)”
To expand this a bit: A landlord could offer a tenant one “first month free” EVERY YEAR as a sort of celebration and reward for the tenant being such a good tenant - or for just being a tenant.
This would help persuade the tenant to stay instead of move while at the same time it would keep the official rent the same …
OR …
(ta dum)
… the landlord could INCREASE the rent at the same time as he offers an annual first-month-free incentive THUS he would INCREASE the production of yellenbucks and at the same time keep his tenant happy.
Ben- this….https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-high-cost-of-affordable-housing-mandates-1518479107
What’s truly remarkable is how high they’ve been able to push rents in a lot of these podunk low wage towns with no jobs, not just the SFs of the world.
Check this article out:
“Over the last three years, average apartment rent prices have soared 24 percent in Cowlitz County, according to the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington. The average apartment now costs $820 per month – up from $661 in 2014, the center found.”
You’d be lucky to find a minimum wage job in Cowlitz County. The “official” unemployment rate is a lie, it’s just that most people lost benefits after they ran out but never found work.
http://tdn.com/news/local/a-rental-crisis-is-brewing-in-cowlitz-county/article_29a423d4-1868-5642-bb2a-fb3962854f78.html
The investors probably think that they are getting a bargain when they find a run-down Class B in some podunk area like Cowlitz County or Toledo Ohio. They think they can value-add the complex and charge luxe rents.
I guess they don’t realize that
1. In podunk areas (especially Rust Belt) there is still plenty of Grade B to live in; people aren’t forced to stretch to afford Grade a like in cities.
2. People don’t have the jobs to support Grade A.
3. The PITI on houses in podunk is less than rent. With a low house price ($150K?) and no-down loans, there is no rason to rent.
Grade A luxe doesn’t work in podunk; the question is who’s going to be the greatest fool to take the final hit.
What are the odds of this multi-family explosion happening in some many towns and cities all over the US at the same time? And they all overshoot and continue to build thousands of units.
Except the problem is prices have shot up on houses, too. Infestors have spread like a disease from Portland and Seattle. They have bid everything up beyond what local wages can afford. They’re paying $100k+ for moldy rotboxes which used to cost $30k. These are dying old logging towns.
There’s no reason whatever for investors to purchase residential real estate, other than to grab a share of the Yellenbucks that agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac keep pumping into the market.
Stop the flood of Yellenbucks, and America’s housing prices could achieve affordability, virtually overnight.
$100K is (barely) affordable for a single person working full-time at Costco, but it’s still affordable. But I agree that all these old houses need rehab. Repair costs are the wild card.
Donk… Going into debt $200k on $100k for an item worth near zero isn’t affordable to anyone.
Costco? Hahahaha - there’s no Costco in Longview or any of these dying old logging towns!!
<Devens, MA Housing Prices Crater 26% YOY As Housing Correction Expands
https://www.movoto.com/devens-ma/market-trends/
“For some fun and interesting perspective, the average price for a rental in all of New York City in the 1960’s was $200 a month, the 70’s $335 a month, the 80’s average was $1700, and the 90’s average for the 5 boroughs was around the same as last month’s average of around $3,295 for Manhattan apartments.”
This comment is late and probably won’t be seen, but as someone who lived in NYC for 14 years, the statement above is absolutely ridiculous. Where did those average rent numbers come from? Average rent at least doubled from 2000 to 2010, and with (official) inflation pretty flat during those years, that increase was in real terms. Landlords are trying to normalize the prices by saying it’s been that way since the 80s-90s. Nope.
obama and Hillary identity politics meets the housing bubble…
The good old CRA - greatly expanded by Bill Clinton and Janet “Banks will not thumb their noses baby killer” Reno
++++
Why white homeowners in Philadelphia can get federal mortgages meant for black neighborhoods
Philly.com - February 14, 2018
Jonathan Jacobs had almost no savings, a modest income, and a credit report marred by a disputed cellphone bill. But he easily bought a newly renovated rowhouse in Point Breeze, a South Philadelphia neighborhood that is historically African American.
“It took about 15 minutes” to fill out the paperwork, said Jacobs, a career counselor. “Now, I pay less to own a house than I did to rent an apartment. That’s the American dream.”
Jacobs, who is white, got a special home loan from New Jersey-based TD Bank that is designed to help low-income people and blighted neighborhoods, where banks are required to lend under the landmark Community Reinvestment Act of 1977. The law was designed to correct the damage of redlining, a now-illegal practice in which the government warned banks away from neighborhoods with high concentrations of immigrants and African Americans.
But the law didn’t anticipate a day when historically black neighborhoods would be sought out by young white homebuyers. So instead of lending to longtime black residents of Point Breeze, most of the loans there are going to white newcomers such as Jacobs.
Jacobs’ bank, TD Bank, goes even further, waiving costly mortgage insurance requirements for low down payment loans. But government data analyzed by Reveal — independently reviewed and confirmed by the Associated Press — shows that black and Latino borrowers have a tougher time.
“They’re trying to push us out,” said Adrienne Stokes, a 58-year-old black woman, who retired from a career as a bill collector and now works as a home health aide. She has lived in her Point Breeze home for more than 20 years.
Although she’d been steadily paying off her mortgage for decades and had about $200,000 in equity in her home at the time, the bank turned her down, citing a low credit score. Like other banks, Firstrust, which passed its most recent Community Reinvestment Act assessment in 2014, rarely lends to African Americans. From 2012 to 2016, it denied more conventional mortgage loans to black borrowers in Philadelphia than it made.
“I certainly think blacks should be able to buy homes, too,” he said. “It’s not fair.”
Would Adrienne Stokes feel better if she had been “pushed out” by a young black career counselor with low income?
And what about this?: “By 2020, MEDA says it hopes to own at least 2,000 apartments in the Mission District. ‘Having affordable housing is the first step to rebuilding this as a Latino hub,’ Feng said.””
Latino hub? That’s an equal housing suit waiting to happen.
In my neighborhood, whites are being “pushed out” by immigrants. I guess that’s ok.
In my neighborhood, whites are being “pushed out” by immigrants. I guess that’s ok.”
Seems to me that was a Obama trend which is ending. I’ve noticed white guilt was all over the place when Obama was president , are they connected ?
Our next door neighbor was “pushed out” by a Chinese couple who were “fresh off the boat”. They overshot the comps by at least $50K.
gimmigrants
no free sht for whitey
boots,continue reporting
Hey Hillary, why don’t you come in here and live in this guys head for free. There’s plenty of room. It’s apartment number 2B.
Housing my friend. Housing.
Portland, OR 97232 Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/portland-or-97232/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
“Why white homeowners in Philadelphia can get federal mortgages meant for black neighborhoods”
That’s racis’
It is always the weather. Hurricanes or winter…
++++++
Canadian Existing Home Sales Crash In January
ZeroHedge - 02/15/2018
After five straight months of acceleration, January saw Canadian existing home sales crash 14.5% - the biggest drop on record…
Home prices rose 2,3% over the past 12 months, but it appears a sudden close-eye on Chinese buyers has hit the market hard as Toronto home sales crashed a stunning 27% from December (prices down 4.4% YoY) and Vancouver sales down 10.5% MoM (prices up 18.1% YoY).
Canadian existing home sales are down 2.4% YoY.
Must be the weather, right?
And liberals/progressives still can’t understand why Trump won…
+++++++
EPA chief claims he needs first-class flights to avoid ‘unpleasant’ interactions with taxpayers
The Week | February 14, 2018 | Jeva Lange
It seemed like it could be the great mystery of our time: What unspecified threats require Environmental Protection Agency Secretary Scott Pruitt to fly almost exclusively in business or first class? A spokesperson told CBS News on Tuesday that “due to security concerns” the secretary “has a blanket waiver to fly in first or business class,”
If he sat next to me in coach, I would have no idea of who he was.
Mr Pruitt is despised by EPA folk for the austerity measures he has imposed. First Class travel was not one of them.
I doubt, other than his children and mother, no one else would recognize him.
“Do as I say, not as I do.”
Can I retract my sentence structure? Long day.
Sure. Take a mulligan and give it another shot.
Id buy him a drink
Denver police oppose #MuhSanctuary because heroin:
https://www.denverpost.com/2018/02/14/denver-police-union-president-immigration-testimony-congress/
Denver is beginning to resemble HAMSTERDAM.
Bahahahahahahahaha … every drug addict needs to be somewhere, right now they need to be in Denver.
Brought to you by - wait for it - Mr. Banker!!! Thanks Mr. Banker!!!
It twern’t me. These pukes made their own beds.
Colorado = The Next California
And it’s so dang obvious, too.
Have Coloradoans begun to speak “zip code” yet?
Have Coloradoans begun to speak “zip code” yet?
Do they “take the 25″ or “the 70″ yet?
When I see articles like this I think:
1. I can remember HGTV shows of Americans buying their resort dream homes in these areas
2. What a sh!thole
3. Build the wall
+++++
Acapulco: The resort killed by drugs, guns and gangs
Sky News | February 15, 2018 | Stuart Ramsay
The American government has issued a stark warning to all potential tourists to Mexico: “Don’t go.”
It comes after the country revealed nearly 30,000 people were murdered last year - the highest number in 20 years.
The CIA says the violence levels are comparable with the war zones of Iraq and Syria.
The resort city of Acapulco, a former playground of the rich and famous, is now at the centre of a crime wave that has swept across the country. Extortion, kidnapping and murder are daily events.
In fact, outside of a war zone I have never seen anything like it. The police are in full combat gear and heavily armed.
There are four trucks of them and in support an even better armed marine unit in case things turn really nasty.
There is a series of video on youtube called “True Mexico”, published by an alleged Brit named “Paul” who never shows his face. It’s a kind of travelogue for the backpacker crowd. He covers things you can do for free or cheap in Mexico City. I like to watch it as he covers a lot of mundane things, like going to a Mexican grocery, and I like to see how things have changed since my time there. He’s a big cheerleader for Mexico, and kisses Mexican a## big time in his videos, which earns him a lot of Patreon donations, mostly from Mexicans, which I believe is how he funds himself. He claims to have been in Mexico City since 2011.
In one episode he strolls down Presidente Masaryk Blvd in the Polanco neighborhood. Polanco was upscale even when I lived there (it was THE Jewish neighborhood), but I didn’t recognize what I saw in his video. The street looked like Rodeo Drive: Mercedes and other luxury car dealerships, Gucci, Hugo Boss, Prada and plenty of other luxury brand stores.
He then pointed out a twin condo tower, and said that the condos in that tower fetch $15M USD. At first I thought he was joking. $15M for a condo in Mexico City? Sure Polanco looks swanky now, but you’re still in freaking Mexico City. If you’re that rich, you need bodyguards to go anywhere (though I didn’t see any on Masaryk Blvd). Step out of that cocoon and you are in third world Mexico City (Which is where “Paul” spends most of his time in his videos)
The Smiths — Shakespeare’s Sister:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3pkC0iujHs
Thanks for the recommendation, I’ll check out “True Mexico.” Mexico City made the number one recommended travel destination by The New York Times. The photos looked stunning. I would like to go there. I’ve only been in the touristy areas near beaches.
Huffington Post reports (as promised) a grabber narrative from CNN’s Don Lemon:
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5a852718e4b0774f31d1f602
Wanna infringe shall not be infringed? Cold. Dead. Hands
Hmmm. What changed?
Did the average wage in NYC double and triple every decade?
Or was it the government’s massive growth, back stopping every real estate loan and gushing with cheap and easy obama bucks?
+++++++++
“For some fun and interesting perspective, the average price for a rental in all of New York City in the 1960’s was $200 a month, the 70’s $335 a month, the 80’s average was $1700, and the 90’s average for the 5 boroughs was around the same as last month’s average of around $3,295 for Manhattan apartments.”
CRE prices in NYC doubled from 2014 to 2016. This cap-rate fairy dust blew up in a bunch of people faces since.
Superior, CO Housing Prices Plummet 13% YOY As Boulder County Housing Demand Craters
https://www.movoto.com/superior-co/market-trends/
SHA has been focused on many CO markets of late - what gives there SHA?
He knows where other posters on this board live, and likes to post BS links for those areas to goad people. His claims for what is going on in my area are 100% false (now they may become true at some point after things crash again, but certainly not right now).
Yup, it’s easy to cherry pick. A few days ago I easily found several Colorardo markets with YOY double digit price increases. I don’t get why he bothers, I suppose he gets some perverse pleasure out of it. If it makes him happy, more power to him.
I don’t get why he bothers ??
He’s loanly.
All my good friends in one place.
Redmond, WA 98052 Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/redmond-wa-98052/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
’such occurrences are common now as demand for properties in Toledo’s apartment market has become red hot. The result has been a sizable amount of complex ‘flipping,’ though not in the traditional sense. ‘It’s not like house flipping. That’s not what’s going on. It’s not like someone put some lipstick on a property and flipped it,’ said Harlan Reichle’
Well Harlan, not lip stick, but maybe they painted the parking lot and put in a bit of carpet. It’s still flipping, they just have to wait a couple of years before they can rake in that sweet equity from Mel Watt.
This article does a good job of explaining the cap rates hokus pokus. The thing bringing in all these outsiders is: relative cap rates! See if they are getting 4% in Oregon, why Toledo is 8%! Huzzah! Personally I don’t go along with this jive talk. I calculate what something is worth to me without the fairy dust.
The one thing in common with all these degenerate howmuchamonthers…… they don’t understand the input cost of what they’re buying nor do they care to find out simply because they’re borrowing the money.
“… simply because they’re borrowing the money.”
(snort) Borrowed money is perceived as having a “different value” as compared to money obtained in some other way (such as working at a job) and thus this money is treated differently.
A human fraility that I find somewhat … profitable.
😁
I calculate what something is worth to me without the fairy dust.
See also anchoring cognitive bias:
Anchoring or focalism is a cognitive bias that describes the common human tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the “anchor”) when making decisions. During decision making, anchoring occurs when individuals use an initial piece of information to make subsequent judgments. Once an anchor is set, other judgments are made by adjusting away from that anchor, and there is a bias toward interpreting other information around the anchor. For example, the initial price offered for a used car sets the standard for the rest of the negotiations, so that prices lower than the initial price seem more reasonable even if they are still higher than what the car is really worth.[1]
Kinda like the anchoring seen by those going gaga over “energy saving”, “good for the environment” vehicles?
Totally separate phenomenon. Anchoring is kind of like, “Well, if that crappy shack is worth $200k, then I guess I can spend $300k on that dilapidated house.”
When it comes to EVs, people are purchasing these because of the wow factor and to be an early adopter or because it is a luxury item (similar to the reason people buy Mercedes, BMW, or Lexus). Obviously the utility factor of a luxury car isn’t much more than a Honda Civic, so no one makes that comparison.
The fact that an a luxury EV will save you some in gas and repairs over its lifetime doesn’t mean it is more economical. It’s just an added bonus.
The fact that an a luxury EV will save you some in gas and repairs over its lifetime doesn’t mean it is more economical. It’s just an added bonus.
I saw the math once on how long it takes you to make up the difference in cost between various hybrid vehicles and their full gas counterparts based on fuel savings.
For the Honda Prius, it was about 3 years vs. a similar compact car. Not bad.
For the Lexus SUV hybrid, it was 99 years. Not really a good economic choice…but people still purchased them.
I haven’t seen the math on a full EV….but I suspect the difference in cost is made up pretty quickly if you put a lot of miles on the vehicle…there is much less in terms of maintenance, and the cost of “fuel” is much less than gas on a per-mile basis.
HOWEVER, if you only commute a short distance, it is probably more economically friendly to drive you ICE vehicle until it doesn’t go anymore, rather than waste resources on a new EV.
My commute is about 2 miles, and I’ve had my current car for about 8 years…I have no intention of selling it anytime soon to get an EV.
Yeah, that’s my situation too, which is why I don’t own a car (eBike). For what it’s worth, I the Chevy Bolt requires essentially NO maintenance for the first 150k miles. That’s pretty amazing. Probably worth about $2500 in saved maintenance costs up to that point, plus about $1k in annual fuel usage saved for “average” commuter. The economics for the bolt (with tax credit) become economical over time, but not for high end Teslas. Model 3 may be different. I suspect that once the tax credit is phased out (model 3 reservation holders won’t get it), Tesla could give out free charging to entice on the fence buyers, not that they need to with half a million people waiting.
https://insideevs.com/chevrolet-bolt-requires-almost-no-maintenance-for-first-150000-miles/
Zero maintenance is worth far more than just the dollars saved. Avoiding the time and brain damage of dealing with the average dealership or repair shop/oil change place multiple times per year is worth a lot to many people. Dropping it off, getting a ride to work, finding out it won’t be ready by the end of the day, “I’ve got my 3 best guys on it right now”…the list goes on and on.
Nobody loves a nice high powered liquid fueled car more than me. But I’d be quite happy to daily drive a fast Tesla or equivalent.
Toldeo is red hot? I think we’ve reached peak delusion. Nothing about Toledo, from the culture to night life to the women to the arts and sciences, nothing is red hot in Toldeo.
The only thing red-hot is the smoldering lava at the bottom of the massive housing/real estate crater.
Albany, OR Housing Prices Crater 28% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/albany-or/market-trends/
Sean,
Next time you and your lib friends talk about how it was possible for Trump to win….see your post above. You guys still dont get it and looks like you never will.
Tic Tok,
What does Toledo being a red hot sh!thole have to do with politics? My point is that for those who haven’t visited it isn’t red hot at all.
‘And now there’s a larger pool of buyers. We’ve had people from Mexico, from Canada looking to spend their money here.’”
Wow Mexico and Canada! Look at you, Toledo!
Wow. You have zero self awareness dude. Like nada.
‘For the last two years, the city of Austin has seen an increase in the number of new apartment units coming online, totaling about 11,000 per year in 2016 and 2017, but construction is showing no signs of slowing down, said Bruce McClenny, president of Houston-based ApartmentData’
‘That kind of supply, even in the face of very good job growth and a very good economy, is a little too much,’ he said. ‘It all of a sudden becomes more of a renters market.’
‘Occupancy has been trending downward since peaking in June 2013.’
You read that right. All this blab about red hot Austin was just horse-hockey and it has been for 5 years.
February 12, 2018
“Ever since 2010, Austin-area renters could count on one thing: Renting an apartment was going to get more expensive every year. But real estate consultant Charles Heimsath’s latest report shows that – at least for now – the market has become more forgiving to renters. Experts say the shift was brought on by several factors: a surge of new apartment construction, more renters jumping to home ownership and a slight slowdown in the region’s job growth.”
“Last year, developers added 10,727 new apartments to the market, nearly equaling the record of 10,780 in 2016, Heimsath said. However, only 55 percent of the new supply was leased last year, in contrast to 81 percent in 2016, he said. On the occupancy side, the rate fell to 91.3 percent — a level unseen since 2010 — and down from 95 percent five years ago, said Robin Davis, manager of Austin Investor Interests. The decline was due in part to an ‘over-saturation’ of new apartment construction, Davis said, along with other factors, including job relocations and losing tenants to home purchases or home rentals.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10342
‘Last year, developers added 10,727 new apartments to the market… only 55 percent of the new supply was leased last year’
Ouch. See these empty units figure into that cap rate fairy dust too. 45% empty new units = Oh Dear!
I just took a look at the apartment complex I was living in near Mopac and Parmer before leaving Texas. The price today for the unit I had been renting in 2008 is only abut 10% higher now than it was a decade ago.
Are you braced for and looking forward to welcoming another stock market nose dive?
Brace for another nose-dive for stocks — and welcome it
Published: Feb 15, 2018 10:29 a.m. ET
Critical information for the U.S. trading day
What goes down, must go up, must go down…
By Barbara Kollmeyer
Markets reporter
In what would have seemed like a miracle on Wall Street last week, stocks are hard at work on their a fifth up day in a row this morning.
The Teflon equity market we know and love resurfaced yesterday as it marched onwards and upwards, past inflation data and a pop higher in the 10-year Treasury yield nearer the 3% line-in-the-sand. The VIX (VIX, +2.34%) is under 20.
The only problem is that it all looks a little too easy, like a “Scooby-Doo” mystery that’s all squared away in the first 10 minutes. Ruh-roh?
…
obama handed a booming economy over to trump.
If Obama was president for 30 years, there would be a boom in the 31st year
Obama had 8 years, and never made it to 3% growth.
It looks like we will be running trillion dollar deficits now. looks like the FED will have to do QE again and add more bonds to the balance sheet. Their balances sheet will expand to accomodate the spending.
“Growth”
Paid for by debt and sleazy statistics. The longer this goes on the more spectacular the crash will be.
Another selling opportunity approaches!
“I love this market!”
what is the strike price for the powell put?
We seem to have already reached the Powell put strike price, judging from the sea of green that has buoyed stock prices since last week’s big volatility and correction scare. The Fed can’t have Wall Street traders assuming the fetal position just as they are finally getting serious about taking away the punch bowl. Think of the Powell put as methadone treatment for opioid addicts undergoing withdrawal, and you will have the concept.
I prefer to think of Powell as the current figurehead, not like he was an Olympian God.
Powell seems far more likely to follow through on the Fed’s longstanding commitment to remove the punchbowl, something Yellen has punted on doing for years. Now the unemployment rate is at a level below the natural rate, which normally translates into above average inflation. We’ll see if the Powell Fed opts to let inflation ride and throw retirees on fixed incomes under the bus, as happened in the 1970s.
Hillary or Liz Warren???
Well, she could be Trans-indian.
Such a landslide is coming in 2020.
+++++
Elizabeth Warren disingenuously doubles down defending her fake Indian heritage claims
American Thinker | 02/15//2018 | Thomas Lifson
President Trump’s needling of Senator Elizabeth Warren’s unsupported claim to Native American ancestry has hit its mark. Yesterday, the Massachusetts senator made an unannounced appearance before the National Congress of American Indians, the oldest national organization that claims to represent the interests of Native Americans, and repeated her previously debunked claims in a particularly offensive manner.
The reliably progressive Boston Globe covered the speech with a straight face:
Warren did not apologize for her undocumented claims that her mother’s family had Cherokee blood – instead, reaffirming: “My mother’s family was part Native American. And my daddy’s parents were bitterly opposed to their relationship. So, in 1932, when Mother was 19 and Daddy had just turned 20, they eloped.
“The story they lived will always be a part of me,” she said, as tears came to her eyes. “And no one – not even the president of the United States – will ever take that part of me away.”
The tears are a nice touch, don’t you think? She’s a victim…
Lying Lizard aka Pocahontas.
I prefer Lie-a-watha.
I like Fauxahontas myself.
Reminds me of Nixon’s “Checker’s Speech”. The ending of it goes like this …
“One other thing I probably should tell you because if we don’t they’ll probably be saying this about me too, we did get something—a gift—after the election. A man down in Texas heard Pat on the radio mention the fact that our two youngsters would like to have a dog. And, believe it or not, the day before we left on this campaign trip we got a message from Union Station in Baltimore saying they had a package for us. We went down to get it. You know what it was?
“It was a little cocker spaniel dog in a crate that he’d sent all the way from Texas. Black and white spotted. And our little girl—Tricia, the 6-year-old—named it Checkers. And you know, the kids, like all kids, love the dog and I just want to say this right now, that regardless of what they say about it, we’re gonna keep it.”
… and many tears began to flow througout the land.
I think someone should send her a $199 23 and Me kit so she doesn’t need to rely on family stories when claiming minority status to advance her career.
Why can’t she just send off for a DNA test to solve it once and for all?
Why can’t she just send off for a DNA test to solve it once and for all?
I personally know several federally-certified native Americans, one a former tribal chair, who won’t get their DNA tested. We all have things we would like to conceal.
We all have things we would like to conceal.
I can see a Native American potentially wanting to conceal that there may be some European blood in their lineage, or perhaps lineage from a different tribe.
That’s different than concealing the truth about heritage when that heritage has been used for career advancement.
I can see a Native American potentially wanting to conceal that there may be some European blood in their lineage, or perhaps lineage from a different tribe.
In my estimate the vast majority of NAs currently enrolled in federally recognized tribes, have some Euro ancestry or ancestry in other tribes. So big deal. Dozens of times I have read natives I have researched claiming they are “full bloods” - when I know of one or more documented ancestors of theirs who was/were not at all native. My best guess is that they are trying to conceal their true parentage (who are probably also mixed blood NAs, just not the ones who are documented). A related problem: Canada once tried to get its welfare to its own First Nations under control by denying support to children whose father either was not First Nations or was listed as “unknown” So one enterprising Canadian Indian sold his “services” as a documented “father” by signing off on hundreds of First Nation birth certificates. He made a lot of money, and Canada was stuck with the same old welfare bill. He had no actual relation to the child, and no liability for their support either.
Is anyone mapping these Injun’s DNA?
There are many tribal members who are ethnically non-Indian. Apparently a number of tribes owned slaves and/or adopted African-Americans into their tribes centuries ago. Now some tribes are kicking them out, denying them membership and tribal benefits.
How ironic is that?
Black Indians in the United States
America’s 2nd Largest Indian Tribe Expels Blacks
There are many tribal members who are ethnically non-Indian.
You can say that again. However there are political and historical issues here. A ethnically white waif who was informally adopted by a Navajo family in the 1950s and raised as Navajo could well have wound up speaking perfect Navajo & knowing / living the culture as well as one born to the tribe. I met several such in the 1970s. Adoptees like this one can truly be considered “ethnically Indian” regardless of DNA ancestry. Some of the prejudiced “ethnically pure” NAs do take issue with this, but their opinion is a minority one.
There is no such thing as an “ethnic” American (US Citizen) because DNA has nothing to do with that particular status. US custom prohibits federally recognized tribes from accepting new members the same way that the US government can accept new citizens, even though that is a tradition sovereign nations can follow if they so choose. Federally recognized tribes have very limited sovereignty under US custom.
There are also NAs who have 8 great grandparents, each of which descends from a different tribe. These unfortunates are 100% NA, but due to tribal relations and blood quantum rules, are not eligible to belong to a single one of their ancestors’ tribes.
Thanks for this insight Tresho. I grew up working as a boy on the Uintah and Ouray reservation and many of my friends were boys I met in the pow-wow circle. I feel like I know quite a bit about native American culture for a white guy, but I learned something new from you.
Only in America can you be lilly white and blond and claim to be mestizo
I’d bet Running Deer already had a DNA test done long ago.
geronimama
squatting cow
cochisa
standing bare (nakid)
sacagawhiner
tonta and her horse pout
Only in America can you be lilly white and blond and claim to be mestizo I met a lady, a black RN working near a rez in NM, who told everyone there she was an “Anglo”. She said she definitely wasn’t NA nor Hispanic, and “black” wasn’t a category used in that part of the country. She had a legitimate point. Old Chief Lodgeskins in the movie “Little Big Man” made an explicit reference to “black white men” at one point.
The only time I saw a group of back-country Navajos show signs of astonishment was when a very white looking tall blonde school teacher was herding a crowd of Navajo school kids through a waiting room. When she spoke to the kids in perfect Navajo, the adults’ jaws dropped and their eyes all opened wide. This was in 1976.
This kind of reminds me of my good friend who is identifies as white but has uncharacteristically dark skin and tans easily. Anyway, he worked as a life guard at a water park and he said people would come up to him and speak Spanish three or four times a day. He doesn’t speak a lick of Spanish.
Also, I remember going to the Kahnawake Mohawk territory of Montreal and seeing a few natives who had lighter skin and bluer eyes than I did. All of these people identified as ethnically natives, even though many appeared European.
As a result, many Kahnawake people are of mixed ethnicity, of Mohawk, Oneida, Onondaga, Cayuga, Seneca, French, English, Anglo-American, Scots and Irish descent but identifying as Mohawk.[12] By the 1790s and early 19th century, visitors often described the “great mixture of blood” at Kahnawake. They noted that many children who appeared to be of European ancestry were being brought up culturally as Mohawk.[13] At times there has been more tension about the relations of full-blood and mixed-race members of the tribe, both in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries.
Napa, CA Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Market Floods With Housing Inventory
https://www.zillow.com/napa-ca/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
“A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.”
― Mark Twain
A “housing ‘recovery’ is falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels by definition.”
― Anonymous
Kailua, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/kailua-hi/market-trends/
“A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.”
And that was decades BEFORE the internet!!!!
The telegraph has been with us since the 1830s . . .
coal country is still hurting and suffering from the opiod crisis. why haven’t they been helped?
How do you help them?
a big bailout check .
A big bailout check will help them with their opioid crisis?
How do you help them ??
Elect Trump.
Get on the TrumpTrain my friend…. Get on the TrumpTrain.
San Francisco, CA 94110 Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca-94110/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
I don’t like admitting this, but some people and communities are going to have to be “black tagged” in this triage effort. They are beyond help. For these people, it’s about containment and reducing collateral damage. Focus on the new generation and try to prevent a new generation of addicts.
try to prevent a new generation of addicts
Let us all know how that might be possible. The USA seems to have gone collectively insane.
Ending Obama’s 8 year war on coal was a good start.
green technology and air regulations did them in. The green energy movement has a lot of money to lobby.
“as long as u can service the debt you are still solvent.”
Servicing has two critical components.
1. low interest rates
2. ability to keep borrowing to pay off old debt
Which one of these goes to sh@t first?
Dallas, TX 75214 Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/dallas-tx-75214/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
“Consequently, when the Fed printed, they printed. That is, they bought up dollars on a massive multi-trillion scale owing to the mercantilist belief that their export-based prosperity (in both the Asian industrializing economies and the commodity and petro states) would be imperiled by rising exchange rates.
Alas, these central banks have now accumulated upwards of $7 trillion of UST and GSE debt, which they foolishly swapped for the sweat of their workers’ brows and mother nature’s endowments of natural resources. But it also meant that the US trade account never balanced, and that breadwinner jobs and middle class wages got massively and chronically off-shored.”
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/swan-song-of-the-central-bankers-part-4-the-folly-of-2-00-inflation-targeting/
im headed over to look at a new tesla n a bit. any advice from my pals?
Buy 2 of them
Don’t get low profile rims/tires.
Wear an ascot.
I got hosed on my trade in and got 8 years worth of payments. I hope I did ok.
Lol, Harvard was short volatility
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/pensions-and-endowments-gambled-on-market-calm-then-everything-changed/ar-BBJ8FEk?ocid=ob-fb-enus-894
Annandale, VA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/annandale-va/market-trends/
ft.com
Charlie Munger
Berkshire’s Charlie Munger calls bitcoin ‘totally asinine’
Warren Buffett’s long-time sidekick speaks on tech, healthcare and his advancing years
Charlie Munger on bitcoin: ‘It’s just disgusting that people are taken in by something like this’
Tim Bradshaw in Los Angeles yesterday
There cannot be many nonagenarians who spend their time worrying about cryptocurrencies.
But Charlie Munger, the 94-year-old billionaire investor, is convinced that bitcoin is “noxious poison”.
“I regard the bitcoin craze as totally asinine,” he told a packed hotel ballroom in downtown Los Angeles, where hundreds of what he called “groupies” gathered for what some feared may be one of their final chances to question Warren Buffett’s long-trusted deputy
Over the course of two hours at the annual meeting of his company the Daily Journal, Mr Munger sat back in his chair to field questions about oil and climate change, airlines and electric cars, how to make money and how to live a successful life.
It was a miniature version of the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, where Mr Munger is vice-chairman. But whereas at Berkshire Mr Munger acts as the laconic sidekick to Mr Buffett, here he had the floor to himself.
And he was not short on criticism of aspects of the modern world.
“It’s amazing what people have come to believe,” he said, when asked about the “cognitive biases” affecting the world today, with only different kinds of “idiot” to choose from on different TV channels.
And continuing on the bitcoin topic, he said: “I expect the world to do silly things from time to time, because everybody wants easy money. It’s just disgusting that people are taken in by something like this . . . Our government’s lax approach to it is wrong. The right answer with stuff that bad is to step on it hard.”
…
Here’s to you Charles Munger,
You’re jus’ angry that you don’t have “valet trash” service like Mr. Richard Simmons. So Charlie, it’s time to sell BTC, now. We don’t want stand around waitin’ for the rain to hit. We’ve had our first SELL signal at $10,000. Women come and go, talking about Michelangelo. Leave the next $3500 for the others. Do I dare walk along the beach ? Shall I eat a peach?
You gotta understand, Charlie. We use the profit to pay our GEICO premiums. What’s fair is fair. How crazy is that?
Now my Mom’s ghost has a request:
“Take out the garbage.”
Charlie is obviously too old to grasp the New Era of cryptocurrency we have entered.
It surprises me that the supposedly free market Republicans in power don’t work to end the Communistic housing policies of the Clinton-Obama era, in order to (ironically) make housing affordable for low-income families again.
Crony capitalists gonna crony…
I don’t see why you’re surprised. The home ownership rate hovers around 60% — including a lot of Trump country. That’s a lot of voters who don’t want to see their house prices go down. And the 40% renters tend to be Democratic voters of color (if/when they vote). So why cater to only a few voters? Limiting the MID and property tax deduction was daring enough.
No worries about rising junk bond yields. Any similarity between recent market developments and what played out in 1987 is superficial and irrelevant. This time it is all contained.
The Financial Times
Corporate bonds
Worries over interest rates spread to junk bond funds
High-yield debt redemptions see their second-largest net outflow at $10.9bn
Nicole Bullock in New York 5 hours ago
Investors stampeded out of junk bond funds in the past week, driven by concerns about interest rate increases and a rise in risk aversion.
Net redemptions from funds specialising in high-yield debt totalled $10.89bn in the week to Wednesday — their second largest net outflow, according to fundtracker EPFR Global.
The withdrawals came as market sentiment shifted this month, with investors growing nervous over signs of inflation that could prompt the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively than expected. The change in market mood has sent yields on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries to a four-year high above 2.9 per cent and the S&P 500 tumbling from its January peak.
“For those who do look at their high-yield allocation as a return-seeking as opposed to a risk-mitigating asset, they probably are saying if the equity market is now turbulent I have to reduce return-seeking risk,” said Doug Peebles, chief investment officer of fixed income at AllianceBernstein.
…
…. And junk bonds don’t get any more toxic than mortgage backed bonds.
Oooooph.
But is the US’s current environment similar to the late 80s? The Economist last week made comparisons to the 60s and 90s:
______________________________
The Great Experiment
What will result from America’s strangely timed fiscal stimulus?
The Economist
Feb 8, 2018
Hawks point to the late 1960s for signs of what is to come. In early 1966, following a long spell of low inflation, unemployment fell below 4%. President John F. Kennedy’s tax cuts had been signed into law in 1964. His successor, Lyndon Johnson, raised spending to pay for his “Great Society” programmes and the war in Vietnam. The budget deficit rose from 0.2% of GDP in 1965 to 2.7% of GDP in 1968. Inflation rose, too, to over 3% in 1968 and almost 5% in 1969. As the year ended, fiscal and monetary tightening caused a mild recession.
The comparison is hardly perfect, though. America’s economy was very different in the 1960s. Almost a third of workers belonged to trade unions. Around one in four had wage agreements indexing their pay to inflation. Today fewer than 11% of workers are unionised and wage indexation is so rare that it is no longer closely tracked. Meanwhile global competition and discounting by online retailers holds down the prices of goods.
In some ways today’s experiment looks more like the boom of the late 1990s (see Free Exchange). Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, kept monetary policy loose enough to push unemployment down to 3.8% by April 2000. Mr Greenspan had correctly anticipated that computerisation would increase the economy’s productive capacity and let some of the pressure out of the expansion. Inflation stayed comfortably below 2% even as wages soared. The boom eventually came to an end because a bubble in technology stocks popped—and, perhaps, because Mr Greenspan was less alert to recessionary signals than he had been to evidence of technological change.
As the stock markets wobble again, that parallel may seem unnerving. Hawks have insisted for years that loose monetary policy since the financial crisis would create another bubble—one that, they might say, has now begun to deflate. But unlike in the 1990s, no single major asset class is inspiring irrational exuberance. From bonds to buildings, a wide range of assets are expensive. High prices can be justified so long as low interest rates make future flows of income look more valuable.
https://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21736554-threat-inflation-less-worrying-some-investors-think-what-will-result
Charlie had 5:30-11pm (EST) to close out his position.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-tractor-firm-deere-reports-115008301.html
farm cycled -bottomed?
my TNH be coming back
The Obama Portraits Drew a Strong Reaction. What Did They Mean to You?
By SOPAN DEBFEB. 13, 2018
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/arts/design/obama-portraits-reaction-what-did-they-mean-to-you.html
I didn’t know he was posing at Wrigley Field.
This Day In Chicago Cubs History
http://www.thisdayinchicagocubshistory.com/Wrigley-Ivy.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/16/major-apartment-developer-there-is-an-acute-crisis-headed-our-way.html
“Luxury, upscale buildings accounted for between 75 and 80 percent of the new supply in the current cycle.”
Now imagine what the downward price trajectory is going to do to non-luxury.