You Can’t Build Affordable Until The Next Downturn
A report from Community Impact in Texas. “Under the pressures of the city’s affordability crisis, Austin’s working families are moving out to suburbs such as Pflugerville, Round Rock and Manor, where housing prices are cheaper but work commutes are longer. The market challenges are acutely felt in Central Austin, where neighborhoods once characterized by single-story bungalow starter homes now boast median home prices near $1 million, according to recent housing data. Rising property values place financial burden on existing homeowners who have watched their home values—and property taxes—double in the last decade.”
“The average two-person Austin household, earning the area’s median income of $65,100, falls well short of what is needed to afford the median home price in Central Austin, according to mortgage calculations. David Whitworth, owner of Whitworth Homes said he prefers to build smaller, less expensive homes as they sell quickly, while $1 million homes often sit on the market for a year.”
“Jeff Jack, president of the Austin Neighborhoods Council, a group that strongly opposes added density in Central Austin neighborhoods, said allowing more housing types in the neighborhoods would only create more housing opportunities for the wealthy and continue to push existing homeowners out. Jack said because Central Austin real estate is so desirable, market demand and competition between buyers will continue to bid up the prices, especially as Austin continues to attract a wealthy economy. ‘[Dense housing] will still be unaffordable for moderate- or low-income people,’ Jack said. ‘You can’t build an affordable home in the Zilker Neighborhood … not until we have the next economic downturn.’”
From the Merced Sun Star in California. “All-cash buyers have grabbed up a higher percentage of homes in the past 12 years in Merced County than in much of the rest of the state. More than 40 percent of the homes sold in Merced from 2005 to 2017 were purchased by all-cash buyers, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. The numbers are higher in Planada (42 percent) and Le Grand (44 percent). The California Association of Realtors estimates international buyers are more than twice as likely to pay in cash as domestic buyers.”
“The California Association of Realtors estimates that 3 percent of last year’s purchases went to international buyers. Their data relies on a survey of realtors, and could be inaccurate. ‘For one thing, the survey is conducted in English,’ said Oscar Wei, senior economist for the California Association of Realtors. ‘So if you have Chinese buyers and Chinese agents, they may not necessarily want to participate in a survey written in English.’”
From Bloomberg. “CEFC China Energy Co., the sprawling conglomerate that’s come under increasing government scrutiny, plans to sell its entire global property portfolio with a book value of more than 20 billion yuan ($3.2 billion), according to people with knowledge of the matter. Almost 100 properties are up for sale, including its headquarters in an upscale Shanghai neighborhood, four floors of the Hong Kong Convention & Exhibition Centre and a condominium at the Trump World Tower in Manhattan, as well as hotels, residential apartments and industrial facilities, said the people, asking not to be identified because the deliberations haven’t been publicly disclosed.”
“Signs have emerged recently that it’s unable to repay some debts and is seeking to sell at least one unit. The company’s creditors, led by China Development Bank, have formed a committee to review asset disposals, people familiar with the matter said this week, adding that the Shanghai government has taken control of the firm. Chairman Ye Jianming, who started the company in 2002, was said earlier this month to have been investigated by authorities and will step down from management.”
From the Palm Beach Daily News in Florida. “An investment group that includes an owner of the still-unfinished Palm House hotel-condominium on Royal Palm Way is preparing to make an offer soon to buy the beleaguered development, an attorney has told the Daily News. Word about the impending offer came as the project’s primary developer, Robert V. Matthews, 60, of Palm Beach sat in federal custody after being arrested on money-laundering and fraud charges. One of Matthews’ attorneys, Palm Beach real estate lawyer Leslie R. Evans, 70, was arrested the same day, after a grand jury in Connecticut issued a multi-count indictment against the two men for financial improprieties related to the Palm House.”
“On Thursday, a circuit court judge in West Palm Beach agreed to delay for 90 days a foreclosure trial involving the Palm House property. The renovation project at the Palm House stopped abruptly in October 2014, and the doors have remained padlocked since. The property has racked up about $2.5 million in town fines, the majority related to construction delays.”
“Matthews and Evans, along with ‘their co-conspirators, agents and others,’ illegally used money from foreign investors, administered through the federal EB-5 program, ‘for the personal gain’ of Matthews and others, according to the indictment. A group of more than 50 EB-5 investors, mostly from China and Iran, filed in 2016 a lawsuit in federal court in West Palm Beach against Palm House developers, alleging they were defrauded out of more than $50 million.”
From Nebraska TV. “Cabela’s shareholders approved the company’s sale to Bass Pro last July. Since then, they have laid–off groups of workers by the dozens, leaving many in Sidney in search of a new job. Some found work in nearby towns while others uprooted their lives to move as far as Pennsylvania for work. Brian Fort worked with Cabela’s for 10 years before he was laid off just over a year ago. He says he was lucky enough to find a job just days after being let go. Fort’s wife, however, also worked for Cabela’s. She was laid off just a few weeks ago.”
“Fort said their goal is to stay in Sidney, even though, he says over 100 homes are being foreclosed on as we speak. ‘It’s gonna take a while to off–set the number of people leaving and the amount of homes empty. So it’s a great buyers’ market, so people from Denver, people from other areas looking to retire, play some golf, you can get an awesome price on a home here,’ said Fort.”
From The Real Deal on New York. “Manhattan’s luxury residential market recorded 24 contracts at $4 million and above last week, according to Olshan Realty’s weekly market report. The first quarter of 2018 notched only 282 contracts, a 15 percent decline from the same time last year. What’s more, luxury homes spent an average of 469 days on the market, a 20 percent increase over the average of 390 days in 2017. That’s the longest it’s taken to sell a home since Olshan began tracking the statistic in 2011. And pricey homes had an average discount of 10 percent from the original ask to when properties went into contract.”
“‘Actor Mike Myers’ penthouse at 72 Mercer Street in Soho took the week’s No. 1 spot, going into contract with an asking price of $13.95 million. The actor originally listed the duplex condo in 2015 and then took it off the market with an asking price of $16.95 million. He put it back on the market in November with a price chop of $3 million. Myers last year sold his 443 Greenwich condo last year for $14 million – $675,000 less than he paid for the apartment just months earlier.”
I just got this in an email:
1000 SOUTH POINTE DR, UNIT 2604, MIAMI, FL | $4,695,000
Price reduced $300k and now being offered turnkey fully furnished/decorated with all artwork and decorations (valued at no less than $200k). No expense spared on this new renovation lavish pre-penthouse high floor 3 bed/3 bath unit with direct private elevator entry, cutting-edge home automation and top of the line interior finishes. Sweeping large terraces off of every bedroom with views of sunrises and sunsets, the ocean, the beach… watch ships sail to and from the port of Miami. Building features private beach club with saltwater pool and poolside cafe, heated pool and spa, sauna and steam rooms, fitness center, tennis courts, media and multi-purpose rooms among many other luxury amenities available exclusively to residents of Murano at Portofino.
Pre-penthouse, WTF? Is the roof called the post-penthouse?
Murano at Portofino - what percentage of developments try and evoke images of Italy? I’d say at least half.
u got me at TURNKey
Lorton, VA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Federal Budget Impacts Fairfax County Housing Market
https://www.zillow.com/lorton-va/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
other than epa n state dept the budget is way,way up
‘An investment group that includes an owner of the still-unfinished Palm House hotel-condominium on Royal Palm Way is preparing to make an offer soon to buy the beleaguered development’
They are still falling for condo-tels.
with a condo tel you always have new interesting people lurking below you. Maybe starting fires etc.
This is one of the many reasons I’d never buy any attached product. Your neighbors’ behaviors directly affects you. Their smoking and other habits pose fire and other risks, like for instance they might just pour grease down the drain on a routine basis, leading to huge plumbing repairs and assessments for the entire building.
I can appreciate this rationale. But I’ve always liked living in condos more than single family houses. I guess that’s because I hate doing yard work. You could sort of say the same thing about single family houses. I mean, you could have a really nice place on your street but be next to someone who totally trashes their place and allows weeds to grow unchecked and parks junk cars all around. While they might not directly impinge on your residence, the eyesores of single family houses probably have a similar effect on the value of your asset.
There are codes to protect against that. There’s no code to protect against your condo neighbor ruining the pipes, or stinking up the walls with smoke.
Boston, MA 02114 Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/boston-ma-02114/home-values/
‘The California Association of Realtors estimates that 3 percent of last year’s purchases went to international buyers. Their data relies on a survey of realtors, and could be inaccurate. ‘For one thing, the survey is conducted in English,’ said Oscar Wei, senior economist for the California Association of Realtors. ‘So if you have Chinese buyers and Chinese agents, they may not necessarily want to participate in a survey written in English.’
‘CEFC China Energy Co., the sprawling conglomerate that’s come under increasing government scrutiny, plans to sell its entire global property portfolio with a book value of more than 20 billion yuan ($3.2 billion)’
February 8, 2017
“New York City is still the No. 1 destination for foreign capital in the world, according to this year’s AFIRE rankings, but it is no longer an environment in which foreign money — particularly from China — will buy anything in the market at any price. This year, China has clamped down on outbound foreign investment, and firms caught flouting the new laws will be punished harshly, China First Capital CEO Peter Fuhrman said. While most New Yorkers in commercial real estate are aware of the capital slowdown, Fuhrman said they are probably not taking it seriously enough.”
“‘I have the perception that the full weight and severity of these capital controls hadn’t been fully felt here,’ Fuhrman said. ‘It’d be fair to say that the Chinese central government dropped a financial bomb on its businesses.’”
“One of the Chinese government’s chief concerns when instituting the investment restrictions, Fuhrman said, is over outbound investors getting fleeced while paying record-breaking prices. ‘A concern of Chinese regulators is their investors have been really bad buyers,’ Fuhrman said. ‘This can sadly be seen more and more in the larger real estate deals they have done. What they are extremely concerned about is just about every acquisition the Chinese have made, is they have overpaid severely and foolishly, and that has spurred a loss of a lot of Chinese sovereign wealth.’”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9989
Shanghai Dan, holding the bag.
And a fake bag at that.
Nice threads.
‘So if you have Chinese buyers and Chinese agents, they may not necessarily want to participate in a survey written in English.’
Or maybe they simply don’t want to participate at all, regardless of language.
‘This can sadly be seen more and more in the larger real estate deals they have done. What they are extremely concerned about is just about every acquisition the Chinese have made, is they have overpaid severely and foolishly, and that has spurred a loss of a lot of Chinese sovereign wealth.’”
Ya see? There’s more than one way to skin a cat. Or a dog.
PS, that photo always cracks me up.
“What they are extremely concerned about is just about every acquisition the Chinese have made, is they have overpaid severely and foolishly”
Cultural white.wash, they have American protoge @ 666 5th Ave NY, NY
+1. I had to look that up.
Kushner creeps me out.
If you’ve ever driven past Sidney, Nebraska, you know it’s an isolated place. The closest city is Cheyenne, Wyoming, which isn’t very big either.
Retire there? Maybe for an oil city price. And given the lack of prospects there, that is no doubt the end point: Oil City.
Oil City retirements need nearby medical. Probably nothing in Sidney, especially if you need specialists. That’s why college towns are so attractive. Many have teaching hospitals and med schools.
Exactly. So many people overlook the lack of medical specialists in flyover areas. Something that is likely to be more important as one ages.
The closest specialists would probably be in Cheyenne, 100 miles away.
Keep in mind that in that part of the country, 100 miles isn’t considered far. I’ll bet people in Sidney run off to Cheyenne for shopping and other errands all the time. I often see Nebraska plates in Fort Collins.
My cousin lives in Sidney and there are plenty of specialists at the medical center.
Lone Tree, CO Housing Prices Crater 20% YOY As Housing Correction Envelopes Denver Bedroom Communities
https://www.zillow.com/lone-tree-co/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Downtown Denver has a serious homeless problem:
https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/crime/some-say-litter-from-homeless-at-denvers-civic-center-park-becoming-a-problem
all that por revenue will take care of that
try drinking your legal limit ,5 hits of the new pot,then driving=impossible
“Urban travelers,” is that the euphemism du jour? Civic Center Park has always had its issues (my great grandfather was a musician in the 1920s and used to buy his drugs there from a man named Peg Leg who had a secret door in his artificial leg for his inventory), but it’s gotten worse since they started developing the rail yards and river corridor. All of the trashed land no one used to care about suddenly has a sky high development value, which means the homeless are getting pushed out and into polite society to make room for the next luxury tower. Millennial hipsters might like to dress and groom like they’re homeless, but they don’t want to actually SEE a real one, and especially not near their luxury dog park complete with luxury dog turds.
Downtown areas have always been dumps. In the past, you might work there, but you sure as heck didn’t live there.
When I first heard about the trend of living in downtown, to be close to bars and restaurants, I wondered if those trendy folk would enjoy walking past bums, junkies and winos. And now they have to dodge piles of feces and maybe get a hepatitis shot just to be safe. Sounds like a real winner.
Downtown areas have always been dumps.
That is not true.
Bellevue, WA 98005 Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Unemployment Ravages Seattle Area
https://www.zillow.com/bellevue-wa-98005/home-values/
Hilariously untrue, Throbert.
Hello my good friend.
Portland, OR 97232 Housing Prices Crater 28% YOY As Heroin Epidemic Ravages West Coast Cities
https://www.zillow.com/portland-or-97232/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
“A group of more than 50 EB-5 investors, mostly from China and Iran, filed in 2016 a lawsuit in federal court in West Palm Beach against Palm House developers, alleging they were defrauded out of more than $50 million.”
Heh-heh, the scammers got scammed.
My favorite EBfivers are the guys up the street with a vape shop.
We were once looking into having EB-5 money as part of a project. We were advised that:
1) the program is first and foremost an immigration program…investment returns are secondary for those providing the EB-5 money–there is a built-in misalignment of interests;
2) having such money, while cheap, takes away your ability to sell the property at any time (as we would like); and
3) a lot of the money is coming from wealthy folks trying to get their kids green cards…if you screw it up for them, they won’t hesitate to sue you to the ends of the earth forever because they have money to burn.
Looks like #3 is rearing it’s ugly head.
No thanks.
My understanding was that as part of the EB-5 program the participant is supposed to create a certain number of jobs for American citizens.
The two EB-5 businesses in the area I used to reside, one was a convenience store and the other a Subway franchise. Both seemed to have only family members working there, based on interactions.
As far as I’m concerned, the program is rife with scammers, so I don’t have much sympathy. As far as the American grifters scamming the scammers, I think lawsuits will be the least of their worries. Justice means different things in different cultures.
“We poisoned some folks!”
Yes, and there are third parties that prepare reports to show how many jobs are created for any given project (which determines how much EB-5 money can be utilized). The logical types of projects are ones where there are lots of employees when the project is done…hospitality mainly.
Still, it’s very complicated, and IMHO, not worth using that money if you can get investment $ any other way.
Once again, stawks got hammered.
O Happy Day!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olQrCfkvbGw
Bug eyes must be filling his adult diapers.
Because criminal invader illegal aliens matter more than U.S. citizens:
http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/380458-blue-states-sue-trump-over-census-citizenship-question
You may not be able to build affordable houses right now but you will be able to eventually buy them.
I still say that when the average condo / house price in Manhattan falls down to what a cheap house in North Dakota costs is when I would consider buying a house (if you are interested in the millennial viewpoint since that was mentioned a couple of times on this blog). You do the math on that percentage drop.
You qualify for a free membership in the 15.5% mortgage rate tale wag$ dog $ociety!
(No credit card or email required, but a mailbox is useful)
Did you mean North Dakota specifically, or just a house in the middle of nowhere? If the oil patch revs up to full again, a “cheap” house in ND may well reach a condo price in a NY ‘hood.
If you really mean middle of nowhere, like Destroit or Dayton or Sidney NB or similar i.e. a cheap house being sub-$100K, then I guess the Millenial viewpoint is to never buy, possibly until retirement. Well, if you can rent and save enough money to buy something outright when you retire, that’s a perfectly viable plan.
zillow rent breakeven now 5.8 years in my hood
?
Donk,
They’re already falling in Manhattan, Boston, SF, Dallas and Miami.
Dallas, TX 75287 Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Builders Slash Prices
https://www.zillow.com/dallas-tx-75287/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
“Austin’s working families are moving out to suburbs such as Pflugerville, Round Rock and Manor…”
I have been visiting relatives in Round Rock for over 30 years but hadn’t been there for probably three years; I drove up there for an elderly aunt’s memorial service and couldn’t believe it. The traffic is just as horrific if not more so than Houston. Suburbs, strip malls and Class A all over the place. All these places, Round Rock, Pflugerville, Manor, etc. used to be a nice little country towns. Now it looks like everyplace else.
Even Elgin is an exurb of Austin now!
The article says a lot costs more than median incomes can afford. Then this:
’single-story bungalow starter homes now boast median home prices near $1 million…he prefers to build smaller, less expensive homes as they sell quickly, while $1 million homes often sit on the market for a year.’
$1 million is all they can build, but it takes a year to sell.
my price range is < 100k
R u back up in the hills?
The market challenges are acutely felt in Central Austin, where neighborhoods once characterized by single-story bungalow starter homes now boast median home prices near $1 million, according to recent housing data.
And I assume they are mostly still the same starter houses.
Note: Look out this Saturday evening, March 31, for the quarterly summary - every price decline mentioned on HBB since Jan 1! And for anyone increasingly confused by the ever-growing list of abbreviations, the key will be included too.
–
Weekly Summary: HBB-Reported Purchase Price Declines
Posted every Tuesday. Key and quarterly summary posted the last day of the quarter.
–
March 21 - 27
> -71.4% Australia - Miles / PCS LUX DEV (P-Mar18)
> -32.8% [San Francisco / VAL LUX] (2007-18)
> -30.8% [Australia - Gladstone / VAL] (2012-18)
> -45.2% [Australia - Gladstone / FOR] (2015-2018)
> -10% to 30% Sydney / PCA (Mar18)
> -15% to - 20% Manhattan / PCS LUX EST (Q118)
> -17.7% [Manhattan / PCS CND LUX] (2015-Mar18)
> -12.4% Toronto (yoy Mar18)
> -10% Manhattan - AVG PCA LUX (Q118)
> -10% [Sydney - Meadowbank / PCS DEV] (2016-18)
> -5.5% [Sydney - Eastlakes / PCA] (Mar18]
> -4.6% [Manhattan - PCS CND LUX] (2017)
I’m loving this. Just lovin it.
people r suffering
The split tails may end up riding a new pony soon.
“As we said, the Fed is in the fundamental business of falsifying interest rates and other financial asset prices. The problem is, it fuels financial bubbles and malinvestments, not capitalist prosperity.”
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/who-needs-wall-street-when-you-can-have-a-monetary-unicorn/
I was considering monetary policy. So I wanted to see how people defined it:
1) https://www.stlouisfed.org/in-plain-english/how-monetary-policy-works
2) https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/policytools.htm
And it seems to me that monetary policy is, at the core, focused on redistributing purchasing power (not currency - purchasing power) from one group or sector to another.
Milton Friedman is one of the fathers of monetary policy. Bernanke said, on Friedman’s 90th birthday:
Remarkably, Friedman and Schwartz did not set out to solve this complex and important problem specifically but rather addressed it as part of a larger project, their magisterial monetary history of the United States (Friedman and Schwartz, 1963). As a personal aside, I note that I first read A Monetary History of the United States early in my graduate school years at M.I.T. I was hooked, and I have been a student of monetary economics and economic history ever since.1 I think many others have had that experience, with the result that the direct and indirect influences of the Monetary History on contemporary monetary economics would be difficult to overstate.
And then I went looking for that Hillary quote where she says the federal government can spend money more effectively than the private sector, and found it here, with Hillary’s statements contrasted with Friedman, who is presented here as a champion of the free market.
And then I felt some cognitive dissonance, upon considering that the greatest contribution to economic theory by a purported champion of free market capitalism was the efficacy of the redistribution of purchasing power.
Part of the subtlety of monetary policy is not that they need to actually give currency to one group or sector, but that they can alter the value of the existing currency*.
—————
*
1) Children playing with hyperinflated Weimar currency: https://i.imgur.com/mW9sFvl.jpg
2) Indian government voids large denomination bills: https://www.google.com/search?q=indian+government+voids+large+denomination+bills
‘The governor of Arizona on Monday suspended Uber’s ability to test self-driving cars on public roads in the state following a fatal crash last week that killed a 49-year-old pedestrian. Arizona had been a key hub for Uber, with about half of the company’s 200 self-driving cars and a staff of hundreds.’
‘In a letter sent to Uber Chief Executive Dara Khosrowshahi and shared with the media, Governor Doug Ducey said he found a video released by police of the crash “disturbing and alarming, and it raises many questions about the ability of Uber to continue testing in Arizona.”
‘Ducey called the crash “an unquestionable failure.” “In the best interests of the people of my state, I have directed the Arizona Department of Transportation to suspend Uber’s ability to test and operate autonomous vehicles on Arizona’s public roadways,” Ducey said.’
‘Uber moved its driverless cars to Arizona from San Francisco after California regulators shut down the self-driving fleet for not having the proper permits.’
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-selfdriving-uber/arizona-governor-suspends-ubers-ability-to-test-self-driving-cars-idUSKBN1H303K
‘
and they want driverless big rigs?
They want to replace every person they can with an AI or an automaton. Of course, they will continue to tell us that there is “full employment”.
How did AZ come to approve any of this activity in the 1$t place? …
The usual: thought it was going to bring in a bunch of money.
Gordon Lightfoot got the inspiration for this hit song from a road sign on Hwy 40 in AZ on his way to “The Flag”:
“Carefree Highway” …
People do not do a very good job of staying out of the way of Progre$$.
Despite having several centuries to figure things out, about a thousand people a year are squashed by Iron Horses, the original self guided vehicle.
“Robert Pottroff, a Manhattan, Kansas, lawyer who has long specialized in representing people in injury and death lawsuits against railroad companies, faults the railroads for not investing in and implementing safety measures. He said the problem is not just the need for high-tech safety systems, but more mundane fixes, like fences to deter people from traversing the tracks between crossings.
“They call them ‘trespassers,’” Pottroff said. “We like to call them ‘pedestrians.’ Sometimes we call them, ‘Our children.’”
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/train-deaths-rise-amid-energy-driven-rail-transformation/
I’ve been a reader for a very long time and just now decided to jump in to comment.
I have been watching local real estate in Los Angeles since the last bust and once again, I am scratching my head when I see what is going on. I am in the west San Fernando valley of LA (aka Kardashian land). Homes are coming up on the market and, in many cases, in a day, there have multiple offers - many all cash, and often above asking, for mid-century,1600 sq ft nothing homes to the tune of 700,000 - 1,000,000,00. In many cases - tear downs. The foreign money is POURING in Los Angeles and the motto seems to be “buy anything”. This is not like last time with all those no down, no doc, interest only loans. This is something else. I don’t see a hint of a bubble anywhere - maybe ever again here. The apartment construction is booming because the ability to purchase homes here is not attainable for most of the population.
I am scratching my head when I see what is going on.
Me too. House prices around here will need to drop by 50% before I’d consider them “reasonable”. I don’t see it happening. I don’t really want to live in an apartment, but I am and will continue to because I can’t stomach financing a house at nose bleed prices - even though my rent is in nose bleed territory too.
Why buy it when you can rent it for half the monthly cost?
Buy it later after prices crater for 75% less.
San Francisco, CA 94109 Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As California Loses Population
https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca-94109/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
“Buy it later after prices crater for 75% less.”
75% less is all my Mom allows me to spend.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BlpecFVIq8
This quote is attributed to Thomas Jefferson, some say it is mis-attributed. I don’t care who said it, it happens to be true.
“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.” - Thomas Jefferson
“I don’t see a hint of a bubble anywhere - maybe ever again here.“
and
“The motto seems to be ‘buy anything.’”
These are inherently contradictory statements. You just defined a bubble and in the same paragraph said you don’t see a hint of one. What I’m scratching my head about is how many people witness, describe, and bemoan (or celebrate) irrational exuberance and then deny that the thing they just witnessed, described, and bemoaned/celebrated exists.
Excuse the crude analogy, but it’s like our entire country is wrinkling their nose at the giant fart wafting through the nation and denying that flatulence could possibly exist because beans are what caused the last Great Fart, and there are no beans today! Then everyone turns to their huge serving of Brussels sprouts, reassured that cruciferous vegetables cannot cause flatulence (only beans!) while simultaneously holding their nose at the giant stink emanating from everywhere.
‘it’s like our entire country is wrinkling their nose at the giant fart wafting through the nation and denying that flatulence could possibly exist because beans are what caused the last Great Fart, and there are no beans today! Then everyone turns to their huge serving of Brussels sprouts, reassured that cruciferous vegetables cannot cause flatulence (only beans!) while simultaneously holding their nose at the giant stink emanating from everywhere.’
Well said.
I say sit tight. This may be the blow-off phase.
I work in radio and we had two of our long-time real estate clients cancel this month due to “personal and financial difficulties.”
One is a lender who has been with us for YEARS even before the last bubble.
Another is a real estate agent running under the “So-and-so has the buyers” marketing spiel. I guess he no longer has the buyers?!
They’re both Inland Empire of Southern California - so as always those houses are the last to run up and first to start to crater as it works its way back towards the coast.
In addition, I was discussing real estate with my friend who wants to buy a place in Palm Springs. He’s been watching for years and he says he’s starting to see reductions in the tens of thousands of dollars.
Are you buying stocks into the headwinds of an absolute breakdown?
The stock market is on the brink of an absolute breakdown
By Mark DeCambre
Published: Mar 27, 2018 5:00 p.m. ET
The Nasdaq on Tuesday nearly erased all of Monday’s powerful 3.3%, tech-driven rally
…
“All eye know is what eye read on Al Gore’s internet!”
Bill Dodgers
“Time is on my side, yes it is.
Time is on my side, yes it is.
You’re searching for good times but just wait and see,
You’ll come runnin’ back
You’ll come runnin back
You’ll come runnin’ back to me.”
The Rolling Bone$, CE 2018
Simi Valley, CA 93065 Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As Mortgage Defaults Ravage Los Angeles Area
https://www.zillow.com/simi-valley-ca-93065/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Did you let goog and fb sell your data today?
If this doesn’t scare you, nothing will.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-27/twitter-user-breaks-down-all-personal-data-facebook-and-google-collect
Here’s what really scares me:
“Facebook may be tracking your every move online even if you have never been on the site.
Not content with monitoring the movements of its own users, the largest social network in the world is building secret files on the activities of billions of people.
Mark Zuckerburg’s company says that is uses this information to target adverts and content based on your preferences, as well as for security purposes.
Facebook account holders are able to download a copy of the file kept on them, which contains detailed records of their activities while logged in.
The privacy of users tracked via-third parties is currently less transparent, with no way of checking exactly what Facebook knows about you.”
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5448389/Facebook-personal-data-files-Australia-inquiry.html#ixzz5B38rd151
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And there I was, congratulating myself for never having had a Facebook account. Turns out, if you are a FB member, you can actually see what FB has on you. If not, pound sand.
Install an ad blocker and Privacy Badger plugins.
Block 3rd party cookies.
Don’t use store club cards.
Pay cash.
Holy sh#t!
This is the azdude skunk song.
I never heard anything but the chorus.
https://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/rollingstones/brownsugar.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOBP7QMuHHs
That’s racis’!
I must have heard that song hundreds of times as a kid without a clue as to its meaning.
“That’s racis’!”
I know right.
I heard a couple of DJs talking about politically incorrect songs when I was on my way home today and they mentioned the Stones Brown Sugar.
I’m like OK I get it, the song is about a good looking young black girl who is a dancer in New Orleans.
Then I think about it when I get home and look up the lyrics and I’m like… Holy sh#t!
“…Brown Sugar.”
Our first president’s favorite treat and dead bedroom solution.
What about Martha?
Drums beating, cold English blood runs hot
Lady of the house wonderin’ where it’s gonna stop
House boy knows that he’s doing alright
You shoulda heard him just around midnight
Brown sugar how come you taste so good, now?
Brown sugar just like a young girl should, now
Are we in a baby bear market? Or is it one of those ursine behemoths that will gnaw the HODLers’ portfolios down to the bone from now throughout the summer, then into October and beyond, for sixteen years or so, kind of like the 1966-1982 period?
I guess only time will tell.
Stocks may already be in a bear market — and here’s how long it could last
By Mark Hulbert
Published: Mar 27, 2018 4:33 p.m. ET
What you need to know about the next protracted stock market downturn
…
“‘Actor Mike Myers’ penthouse at 72 Mercer Street in Soho took the week’s No. 1 spot, going into contract with an asking price of $13.95 million. The actor originally listed the duplex condo in 2015 and then took it off the market with an asking price of $16.95 million. He put it back on the market in November with a price chop of $3 million. Myers last year sold his 443 Greenwich condo last year for $14 million – $675,000 less than he paid for the apartment just months earlier.”
Is he a graduate of the Nicholas Cage Method School of real estate investing?
anybody have any idea how much vacate land is currently zoned residential in CA?
Seems like when there is a big housing development it usually requires ag land to be rezoned to residential. So basically it takes very deep pockets to make this transition and then only corporations can basically develop the land.Thus you get the big home builders involved.
Did your Twitter shares get tweeted yesterday?
state n local spending up 3%
that’s all the “appreciation” burned already