June 4, 2018

When Buyers Fly Too Close To The Sun

A report from The Real Deal on California. “Homeowners in Southern California are increasingly hanging out For Sale signs amid a continued shortage of residential units statewide. There were 30,215 residences on the market in the four-county SoCal region as of mid-May, an increase of 7,000 since the beginning the year, according to a new study from ReportsonHousing. That’s more than triple the rise of 2,000 over the same period in 2017, according to the Orange County Register. Combined, closed home sales in the four counties was down 7 percent year over year, to 13,990. The average number of days a home spent on the market also ticked up to 65 days, according to ReportonHousing, from 59 days a year earlier.”

“In L.A. County, there have been 3,368 new home listings since January, up from 1,478 in the before. Overall supply stood at 11,417 listings. The number of closed deals in L.A. County dipped to 5,824, down 9 percent from last year.”

From the Mercury News on California. “DeLeon Realty used to shuttle Chinese investors on home tours around Silicon Valley in a 14-seat Mercedes van. But when the flow of Asian investors slowed about two years ago, the Palo Alto brokerage replaced the van with a couple of sedans — a Bentley and a Maybach — to cater to a new, smaller class of wealthier clients. ‘We sold the bus,’ said DeLeon CEO Michael Repka. ‘By that time, we had already seen the shift.’”

The Naples Daily News in Florida. “According to the Naples Area Board of REALTORS (NABOR), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island), Collier County has a 7.76-month supply of inventory compared to a four-month supply nationally. Condominium inventory grew 2 percent in April to 3,003 units, over half the entire market, from 2,934 units in April 2017. Interestingly, the median closed price of condominiums in April dropped 8 percent to $271,000 from $296,000 in April 2017. ‘Sellers are pricing properties to sell and it shows,’ said Adam Vellano, West Coast Sales Manager, BEX Realty - Florida.”

“April’s month over month activity was even more impressive in the North Naples area, as reflected in a 26 percent increase in closed sales. Similarly, the median closed price of condominiums in North Naples dropped 14 percent in April to $258,000 from $300,000 in April 2017.”

From the Miami Herald in Florida. “Aventura, Key Biscayne and other ritzy enclaves in Miami-Dade County saw their property values dip this year as a sagging condo market cut into prices and new construction slowed down from its previous boom pace. ‘We are beginning to see the effects of market corrections, primarily with condominiums and high-value, single-family residential properties, such as in Key Biscayne and Sunny Isles Beach,’ said Pedro Garcia, the county’s elected property appraiser. ‘We continue to see the same market trends as last year, with an oversupply of condominiums putting downward pressure on condo values.’”

“Every corner of the report portrayed a housing market cooling off, compared to the 2017 results. ‘here’s a lot of inventory,’ said Nelson Gonzalez, a real estate agent who specializes in luxury Miami Beach condominiums. ‘The buyers still have the pick of the litter.’”

From The Real Deal on New York. “Two foreclosures momentarily rocked the real estate world and were seen as warnings of what happens when buyers fly too close to the sun. From more of a bird’s-eye view, the apartments in One57 were two of 3,306 homes throughout the city scheduled for auction last year — the highest level seen since 2009, according to PropertyShark. Brooklyn and Queens primarily drove the city’s 58 percent year-over-year increase, with 827 and 1,260 first-time foreclosures, respectively.”

“There are signs that cost burdens are taking a toll. In the first quarter of 2018, the New York metro area — including the city and parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania — had the 22nd-highest rate of foreclosures of the 219 areas tracked b ATTOM Data Solutions. During that three-month period, 920 homes were scheduled for foreclosure for the first time — a 31 percent year-over-year increase, according to PropertyShark.”

“New foreclosures on Staten Island jumped 226 percent to 189, compared to 58 in the first quarter of 2017, according to the report. Brooklyn experienced a 64 percent year-over-year increase with 275. The Bronx followed with 117 scheduled foreclosures — a 33 percent increase — and Queens had 303, representing a 13 percent decrease year over year. Manhattan only logged 38. ‘We’re clearly not out of the woods of the last foreclosure crisis,’ said Jacob Inwald, the director of foreclosure prevention for the nonprofit Legal Services NYC. ‘It’s not crazy to think that we’ll see another.’”

“Owners of higher-end properties in New York are finding that their investments aren’t worth as much as they had anticipated. ‘I’m meeting with a lot of sellers right now who are like, ‘Look, I paid X amount, how can you tell me that it’s worth less?’ said Douglas Elliman broker Frances Katzen.”

From the Independent Mail on South Carolina. “Real estate values on the state’s lakes have bumped up 15 percent since spring 2017, according to Lake Homes Realty. And Upstate lake properties are leading the way. The upward trajectory has carried over to lake properties, local real estate experts say, though they acknowledge values will likely never recover to pre-2008 levels. Longtime lake Realtor Bill Brissey in Anderson said he had lots selling for $300,000 in the early 2000s.”

“‘We’re talking just lots,’ Brissey said, ‘and we don’t see as many selling for that. We had a big downturn in 2008, and lakefront properties still have not gained back what they lost.’ Before the 2008 crash, many people bought lakefront property just to flip it, said Glenn Phillips, CEO of Lake Homes Realty. ‘They lost money the day they bought those lots,’ Phillips said. ‘The market will never recover to help those people.’”

The Topeka Capital Journal in Kansas. “The exact recipe that makes up the Topeka housing and rental market is tough to determine. Longtime Realtor Helen Crow is perplexed as to what’s happening locally in what she called a ‘bizarre’ market. It’s common to have between 800 and 1,400 homes listed for sale in the area’s multiple listings database, Crow says. When Topeka hits around 750 or 800, it’s low. But this year, homebuyers face significantly different numbers.”

“‘I have not seen us break 375 currently on any given day,’ Crow said. ‘This is inexplicable. We have hundreds and hundreds of empty houses in town. We’ve got a vast oversupply of housing in Topeka, but we’ve got this real estate market that’s so tight.’”

“Crow points to multiple vacant houses in central Topeka, at Lake Sherwood and throughout the capital city that aren’t listed, and she’s not sure why. But whatever the reason, houses are selling fast. ‘We haven’t had a market this hot since the ’70s,’ she said.”




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99 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-06-04 07:50:57

‘the flow of Asian investors slowed about two years ago’

And the Mercury News is just getting around to mentioning it.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-06-04 08:31:36

‘There were 30,215 residences on the market in the four-county SoCal region as of mid-May, an increase of 7,000 since the beginning the year, according to a new study from ReportsonHousing. That’s more than triple the rise of 2,000 over the same period in 2017, according to the Orange County Register’

That’s some shortage! BTW, the OCR has resumed their “bubble watch” coverage.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-06-04 22:05:35

“Combined, closed home sales in the four counties was down 7 percent year over year, to 13,990.”

Those four counties have a combined population of, what, 17 million or so? It kind of sounds like SoCal home sales are toast.

 
 
Comment by rms
2018-06-04 12:28:32

“And the Mercury News is just getting around to mentioning it.”

LOL… real journalists.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-06-04 07:52:23

‘Owners of higher-end properties in New York are finding that their investments aren’t worth as much as they had anticipated. ‘I’m meeting with a lot of sellers right now who are like, ‘Look, I paid X amount, how can you tell me that it’s worth less?’ said Douglas Elliman broker Frances Katzen.’

Frances, meet Glenn:

‘Before the 2008 crash, many people bought lakefront property just to flip it, said Glenn Phillips, CEO of Lake Homes Realty. ‘They lost money the day they bought those lots,’ Phillips said. ‘The market will never recover to help those people.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-06-04 08:07:35

‘Look, I paid X amount, how can you tell me that it’s worth less?’

Please record this on your phone and send it in to the HBB comedy department.

Comment by oxide
2018-06-04 17:19:02

At least it was cheaper than investing in bitcoin.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-06-04 18:13:38

Somebody posted a story about Millennial Wall St. traders leaving their jobs because of all the money they made trading crypto.

It got me thinking - how does somebody even trade crypto? I googled “US crypto platforms” and there was an article that listed 25 different exchanges. I was surprised there were so many, as I had only heard of Coinbase.

What was really shocking was the FEES they all charge. You’re going to pay 4% of your total investment up front just in fees alone, and some are higher. Complete madness.

All of the money was made in Crypto by those who, through dumb luck, purchased it a year ago or prior. All that’s left is the complete meltdown, which is in full swing right now.

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Comment by oxide
2018-06-05 05:16:41

4%??!? It’s like 1849 all over again. Who got rich in the gold rush? The guys *selling* the pickaxes, not the guys using them.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-06-04 07:54:54

And of course they are building luxury apartments in Topeka:

‘Crow says, the Topeka market probably wouldn’t support the rent on a $350,000 house. Investor and developer Jim Klausman believes the city can support some luxury apartments, and he’s included them in his Wheatfield development planned for S.W. 29th St. and S.W. Fairlawn Road. It’s the amenities, he says, that typically define apartments as “luxury.”

“It’s really an amenity package that really brings that more concierge level of services,” he said. “Generally, there’s a workout area in the complex, a nice pool area — just a number of really increased kinds of amenities that you won’t find in most apartments.”

‘Although the idea that Topeka needs more luxury apartments comes up in almost any housing discussion, multiple experts question whether Topekans really will pay the dollars necessary to make such a development successful. “We hardly ever see rent across $1,500 a month,” Crow said, adding that includes houses.’

Comment by MGSpiffy
2018-06-04 09:53:22

A pool and weight room does not a luxury apartment complex make.

Everyone believes that they, and their project, are the exception and will grab the lion’s share of that small, exclusive high-end customer base.

Comment by oxide
2018-06-04 17:20:03

In the early 90s I paid $340/m for a Grade B 1/1. They still had an exercise room and a pool.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-06-04 07:56:13

‘It’s common to have between 800 and 1,400 homes listed for sale in the area’s multiple listings database, Crow says. When Topeka hits around 750 or 800, it’s low. But this year, homebuyers face significantly different numbers.”

“‘I have not seen us break 375 currently on any given day,’ Crow said. ‘This is inexplicable. We have hundreds and hundreds of empty houses in town. We’ve got a vast oversupply of housing in Topeka, but we’ve got this real estate market that’s so tight.’”

“Crow points to multiple vacant houses in central Topeka, at Lake Sherwood and throughout the capital city that aren’t listed, and she’s not sure why.”

Helen, let me tell you a story about foaming the runway for banks…

Comment by In Colorado
2018-06-04 13:06:34

Apparently, airports don’t foam runways anymore.

From wikipedia:

A foam path is the now discouraged aviation safety practice of spreading a layer of fire suppression foam on an airport runway prior to an emergency landing. Originally, it was thought this would prevent fires, but the practice is now discouraged.

The U.S. FAA recommended foam paths for emergency landings beginning in 1966, but withdrew that recommendation in 1987, although it did not bar its use. In 2002, a circular recommended against using pre-foaming except in certain circumstances. In particular, the FAA was concerned that pre-foaming would deplete firefighting foam supplies in the event they were needed to respond to a fire. Also, foam on the runway may decrease the effectiveness of the landing airplane’s brakes, possibly leading to it overshooting the runway.

Comment by redmondjp
2018-06-04 13:43:14

Not to mention to what the active ingredients of that foam do to the local water table when they run off and go into the ground. It’s a huge problem nationwide, especially near active or former military bases, and fire department training facilities.

 
Comment by MIke in Carlsbad
2018-06-04 17:49:01

The US has used up all the foam in the last bubble, and now its crash and burn time.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-06-04 18:42:34

You’re never out of anything if you can print more and people will accept it as money.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-06-05 06:46:03

Very true. Until you see gold soar, The PTB have not lost the ability to just print money. I think while most people on this board agree on the destination there is a lot of disagreement on the time to get there. I need to see a rapid depreciation in the dollar before I will believe that the PTB do not have the ability to foam a runway.

 
 
 
 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-06-04 18:18:59

“Helen, let me tell you a story about foaming the runway for banks…”

It’s criminal that they are doing this to the American people. Goosing house prices is absolutely despicable. Geithner, Bernanke, Paulson, Yellen, etc. should be facing life in prison, or worse. I personally believe the death penalty should be in play given the strain it has placed upon the daily lives of hundreds of millions of people.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-06-04 23:25:25

It’s for the good of the children!

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-06-04 08:02:12

‘Interestingly, the median closed price of condominiums in April dropped 8 percent to $271,000 from $296,000 in April 2017.’

‘April’s month over month activity was even more impressive in the North Naples area, as reflected in a 26 percent increase in closed sales. Similarly, the median closed price of condominiums in North Naples dropped 14 percent in April to $258,000 from $300,000 in April 2017′

The newspapers down there are always finding the silver lining:

‘Sellers are pricing properties to sell and it shows,’ said Adam Vellano, West Coast Sales Manager, BEX Realty - Florida.’

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2018-06-04 08:03:48

Why is it only one type of politician ever comes up with these hair brained ideas???

https://1010wins.radio.com/articles/de-blasio-wants-end-entrance-exams-elite-schools-boost-diversity

Comment by aNYCdj
2018-06-04 08:48:23

De Blasio Wants To End Entrance Exams At Elite Schools To Boost Diversity
June 04, 2018 - 9:41 am

NEW YORK (1010 WINS) — Mayor de Blasio has called for ending entrance exams for New York City’s eight elite high schools including Stuyvesant and Brooklyn Tech in order to admit more minority students.

He spoke at Junior High School 292 in Brooklyn on Sunday.

“Do we believe that children should be kept from the best education possible? Do we believe that opportunity should be for some and not for others? Time for change?” the mayor asked the crowd.

The mayor said the city’s best high schools need to be diverse and open to every New Yorker.

The mayor’s proposal — some of which requires state approval — would include setting aside seats for low-income students.

Critics say the proposal would open the schools to less qualified students and diminish the educational status of the school.

Comment by oxide
2018-06-04 11:58:52

Do we believe that opportunity should be for some and not for others?

Doesn’t everyone have the same opportunity to take the entrance exams?

(Now, if minority kids are doing ok on entrance exams but don’t have tuition money, that’s a different matter. Those kids should get scholarships.)

Comment by aNYCdj
2018-06-04 12:24:40

But that will never happen Ox, its all about quotas. when NYC had open enrollment

https://www.nytimes.com/1978/06/19/archives/new-jersey-pages-after-8-years-of-open-admissions-city-college.html

Eight years ago, with the advent of open admissions, the City University opened its doors to increased numbers of academically under‐prepared students. Two out of three students entering City College now require remedial work in writing, mathematics or reading, and one in five needs it in all three.

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Comment by BlueSkye
2018-06-05 06:03:56

They were doing this in the ’70s at Newark (NJ) College of Engineering. I tutored some of them.

 
 
Comment by Taxpayers
2018-06-04 15:47:29

Asians don’t count as minorities,you have to fail to be included

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Comment by In Colorado
2018-06-04 13:10:18

Sounds like those elite schools won’t be so elite anymore.

 
Comment by brazendetre
2018-06-04 14:54:56

One of the tribe hiding behind a fake name, like Soros and half of hollywood - because “persecution”. Just look at how mean they’re treating Harvey Weinstein!

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-06-04 08:05:22

‘two of 3,306 homes throughout the city scheduled for auction last year — the highest level seen since 2009′

Huh. And we were told repeatedly by posters here that this could only happen if there were negative amortization loans that were adjustable and the calendar on the wall said 2006 and Senator Running Deer wouldn’t allow it.

Comment by oxide
2018-06-04 12:39:29

Yup, I said that repeatedly. My prediction was that potential buyers would see their true monthly payment (not artificially masked by an I/O-neg am) and be smart enough to say no thanks. And many of them *did* say no thanks. But I guess I underestimated the stupidity of 3,306 people in New York.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-06-04 12:58:13

“Senator Running Deer”

Sen Running Deer, DebtDonkeys, Housing Hens, Home Hookers and all my barnyard friends.

Comment by redmondjp
2018-06-04 13:44:17

The Indian name for one of my children is Runs With Scissors.

 
Comment by jeff
2018-06-04 14:04:40

Chief Climbing Dog

 
Comment by goedeck
2018-06-04 14:33:49

Equity locusts

 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-06-04 14:51:46

Realtors are liars

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-06-04 08:15:38

A reader sent this in:

‘Good Lord! Look at this! Most Everybody Out There in the Finance/Lending Industry Require a 640 Fico Score to get any kind of Down Payment Assistance Programs Like Idaho Housing etc etc…. Well I have a Company who can Still DO 100% Zero Down FHA Financing with only a 620 Score and We can Even Help You Do Credit Repair to Get There IF you Need it!! Call, Text, Email, or Even Smoke Signal me 24/7!’

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-06-04 08:18:35

‘with only a 620 Score and We can Even Help You Do Credit Repair to Get There’

I wonder if some white-out and a photocopier is considered credit repair?

Comment by b
2018-06-04 08:52:22

so is it fraud - or new ‘relaxed’ standards.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-06-04 08:54:04

Affordability efforts.

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Comment by In Colorado
2018-06-04 13:14:53

If FHA requirements were relaxed, it must have been recently:

Credit scores: The absolute minimum credit score needed to qualify for an FHA loan in 2018 is 500. But to take advantage of the 3.5% down payment mentioned above, borrowers will need a “minimum decision credit score” of 580 or higher. Also bear in mind that mortgage lenders can set their own standards on top of the minimum FHA loan requirements established by HUD. So some lenders might want to see a higher score.

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Comment by Norma
2018-06-04 13:50:51

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/06/mortgage-rejections-soar-to-40-of-applications-as-lti-capped/

Our surveys show that up to 40% of applications for mortgages are now being turned down, compared with just 5% a year ago,

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-06-04 14:58:05

Too late for Australia. They’re already doomed.

The US? Far worse. Nobody gets rejected.

 
Comment by rms
2018-06-04 18:11:10

Gotta give ‘em an attaboy… they know leverage!

 
 
 
Comment by cactus
2018-06-04 08:38:05

On Thursday, a new bill aimed at dramatically increasing housing development statewide passed in the state Senate. Should the bill become law, cities and counties statewide would have to zone enough land to meet 125 percent of the local housing need. ”

What does this mean for slow growth cites and counties ? they have to re zone land ?

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-06-04 08:49:46

I don’t think you need more shacks and airboxes:

‘In Oakland alone 7,000 housing units are under construction, and as those finished units flood the market, Protopappas expects the city’s rents to drop 20 or 30 percent in the next two or three years. ‘It’s going to become a renter’s market instead of a landlord’s market,’ he said. ‘It’s going to be a renter’s market for a long time.’

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10452

The MN also has a report on half the bay aryans wanting to flee to Argentina with their natzee gold. IMO, they are in recession already. If there was some big boom going on people wouldn’t leave.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-06-04 09:37:33

Alameda, CA Rental Rates Tank 8% YOY As Housing Market Craters ….. https://bit.ly/2JcOzUY

https://www.zillow.com/alameda-ca/home-values/

https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg

 
Comment by MGSpiffy
2018-06-04 10:01:42

That same story is playing out over and over in different places.

It’s like when you get two or three major Hollywood films with almost identical premise/plots coming out in the same year, and ask “How did THAT happen?”

The initial idea was a good one — if isolated by itself — “Look, the area could easily support another 200-unit apartment complex” - but there’s so many people with so much cheap capital out there looking for something to do with the money and get a return - that instead of one developer building a new apartment complex, we get 25 developers going at it all at the same time, targeting the exact audience with the exact same offerings, and *boom* — 5000 new units in a single year instead of 200.

The curse of too much global money chasing the same things.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-06-04 10:09:49

‘Four men, including two employees of developer Bob Morgan, have been indicted by a federal grand jury on a number of charges, including conspiracy to commit wire fraud and bank fraud. Buffalo, N.Y./Rochester, N.Y. - Four men, including two employees of developer Bob Morgan, have been indicted by a federal grand jury on a number of charges, including conspiracy to commit wire fraud and bank fraud. Federal prosecutors allege the four attempted to defraud a number of financial institutions. They are accused of trying to obtain loans for residential complexes that were higher than they would have been had those institutions known the full picture of their situations.’

‘In all, federal prosecutors say more than $167 million in loans were issued for seven different properties. Prosecutors stress that not all the defendants are tied to all seven properties. The properties include addresses in Buffalo, Syracuse, Avon and Pittsburgh.’

‘In a statement released Tuesday, U.S. Attorney James Kennedy said, “The defendants are charged with fraudulently obtaining over $167.5 million worth of loans relating to seven residential apartment complexes located here in New York and in Pennsylvania. Most of those loans were in turn sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, entities which were created by Congress to perform and an important role in our country’s housing finance system. As a result of the fraudulent conduct alleged in this indictment, defendants’ conduct not only unjustly enriched them but threatened to undercut the very foundations upon which our mortgage banking and investment systems are based.”

‘Special Agent-in-Charge of the Buffalo Division, Gary Loeffert, said, “We must protect the tens of thousands of investors who own mortgage backed securities. This investigation is focused on stopping people from undermining the residential and commercial financing industry. Fraud for profit aims to misuse the mortgage lending process to steal cash.”

Oh dear…

‘We must protect the tens of thousands of investors who own mortgage backed securities’

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Comment by Carl Morris
2018-06-04 10:13:22

‘We must protect the tens of thousands of investors who own mortgage backed securities’

I doubt anybody cares about tens of thousands. But somewhere in the mix there must be tens who really matter to get that kind of response.

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-06-04 22:18:38

‘We must protect the tens of thousands of investors who own mortgage backed securities’

But nary a word about the hundreds of millions of Americans in financial straits due to the illegal collusion between the Fed, banks and politicians to hide excess inventory and bank losses.

 
Comment by FedUp
2018-06-05 03:12:25

“I doubt anybody cares about tens of thousands. But somewhere in the mix there must be tens who really matter to get that kind of response.”

Uncle Fed cares!

 
 
 
Comment by Taxpayers
2018-06-04 15:50:00

bay aryans wanting to flee to Argentina with their natzee gold.
Bahhhhhhhhh

 
 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-06-04 09:14:48

Rosemead, CA Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Los Angeles Housing Correction Expands

https://www.zillow.com/rosemead-ca/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-06-04 10:24:53

‘A Democratic congressman hammered Facebook and its CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, following a report that the company is sharing large amounts of its users’ data with other companies.’

“Sure looks like Zuckerberg lied to Congress about whether users have ‘complete control’ over who sees our data on Facebook,” Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.) tweeted on Sunday. “This needs to be investigated and the people responsible need to be held accountable,” the top Democrat on the House Judiciary antitrust subcommittee continued.’

Maybe the President will pardon him? Nahh.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-06-04 10:53:59

Zuckerberg is a globalist cuck.

Comment by palmetto
2018-06-04 17:21:43

Zuckerberg is what you get when the CIA and DIA produce test tube babies.

 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2018-06-04 10:26:16

Opinion: No bubble: 7 reasons why it’s still a great time to buy a house

By Jeff Reeves
Published: Apr 27, 2018 8:29 a.m. ET

———————–

In the wake of the financial crisis, many Americans lost faith in the idea of a house as an investment… They see historically depressed levels of home construction as a sign that builders are worried. They point to the gap between median wages and median home prices, and they warn higher interest rates will not only increase costs but are sure to suppress demand.

But housing is not in a bubble. In fact, in many ways, the housing market is healthier than it has ever been. A look at the big picture around the real-estate market right now, however, shows this spring is a fantastic time to buy a house — either as your home or as an investment property.

Here’s are seven reasons why:

Strong home prices:
Inflation-adjusted home prices are below the peak
Brisk new home sales
Durable mortgage demand
Inventories hold back sales
Untapped first-time buyers
The economy is good

———————-

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-bubble-7-reasons-why-its-still-a-great-time-to-buy-a-house-2018-04-27

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-06-04 10:29:09

Hey Donk

Comment by oxide
2018-06-04 12:41:25

Even the commenters at Marketwatch aren’t buy this guy’s BS.

Comment by MacBeth
2018-06-04 20:01:02

What more can any of us expect from Marketwatch? What a crappy outfit.

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Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-06-04 22:21:04

I got banned from that crappy site and I don’t even know why. I don’t think they like honesty.

 
Comment by MacBeth
2018-06-05 04:40:40

The content is so predictably poor…hard for me to believe that people on HBB read that tripe.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Get Stucco
2018-06-05 03:18:26

“But housing is not in a bubble.”

Bubble denial is the A1 sign that a bubble is underway.

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-06-04 10:31:14

Albany, OR Housing Prices Crater 22% YOY As Housing Inventory Balloons On Plunging Demand

https://www.movoto.com/albany-or/market-trends/

Comment by Marco
2018-06-04 18:52:28

What’s going on in Albany? I guess prices are affordable, but then you have to live there. I live in the other town ( Corvallis) and its a great place to be. Mortgage watch are you in the area, because you often list Albany, or is it just tanking that fast?

Comment by oxide
2018-06-05 05:21:50

I’m pretty sure that Mortgage Watch is the same dude as Mafia Blocks and Housing Analyst and a host of other screen names. We all ignore his “crater” posts.

And now I’m waiting for him to say Hey Donk.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-06-05 06:26:27

Housing Donk…. Housing.

Potomac Falls, VA Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/potomac-falls-va/market-trends/

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Comment by oxide
2018-06-05 08:39:14

Hi hon.

Thank you for revealing your multiple screen names right in the same thread. :roll:

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-06-05 09:44:00

Housing

Austin, TX 78759 Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY

https://www.zillow.com/austin-tx-78759/home-values/

https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-06-04 11:18:00

Is a trade war looming? Wall Street seems to regard the appearance as a mirage.

Comment by oxide
2018-06-04 13:13:06

I thought we were already in a trade war, and losing.

Today’s Washington Post had an article on how China was fast catching up to the US in spending on R&D. The Post, of course, blamed this on TRUMP. Right. Never mind that research funding has been on the chopping block since the Clinton Administration. Anyway, I don’t see how it’s an issue. We’ll just let China spend the money on 90% failure and then when they invent something good, we can steal it. Maybe even make their phones for them.

Comment by palmetto
2018-06-04 17:11:46

I like it, oxy! Replace Wilbur Ross with Oxy!

Seriously, I don’t get the whole trade “war” trope. Why is it a “war”? You either buy their stuff or not. Where’s the war? Do people call it a “war” if they decide not to shop somewhere or decide not to buy from a particular vendor or go to one doctor instead of another or buy a Honda instead of a Ford?

China: Buy our stuff or we’ll kill you. How would that work out if some salesman threatened me if I didn’t buy their crappy car/insurance/sporting gear? I guess it worked for the Mafia to some degree, I guess they use strong arm tactics to get people to do business with them. Would you call that a “trade war”?

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-06-05 06:38:06

It’s classic abuser/abusee dialog. When you put a stop to being abused, you are wrongfully harming them.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-06-05 06:50:31

The globalists built factories behind enemy lines they do not want to lose the financial advantages they have. Thus the reason Bloomberg is the Peterson Institute 24/7. Has

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Comment by oxide
2018-06-05 08:41:36

factories behind enemy lines

Which is why US politicians always say that the military defends “Americans and American interests.”

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Marco
2018-06-04 14:15:47

Anyone else just seeing a ton of new cars on he road? My wife and I are just amazed about the new cars on the street. Is there something special going on? Zero interest loans or what

Comment by In Colorado
2018-06-04 17:26:35

Maybe everyone is taking out a HELOC while they still can.

I remember anecdotes shared here from after the previous crash, where foreclosed households had Suburbans and other pricey vehicles paid for with HELOCs.

 
Comment by SuzeB
2018-06-04 17:33:28

I believe more people are leasing (often luxury) cars, based on recent experience with family members and acquaintances, some who have no business spending that much money per month. Otherwise, they probably could not buy that Lexus or justify such a purchase so, the poor man’s option is they lease. Many do it mainly for the perceived status of leasing a Lexus, Infiniti, Audi, or a BMW and and let’s not forget, a Mercedes.

That said, I do believe there are 0 percent financing options out there although I must confess I have not investigated this personally.

It seems that in general people are leasing cars more, rather than buying, including myself…something I never thought I would do but three years ago, in a moment of indecision, I leased a Toyota Corolla (not exactly a luxury car but I’ve always driven them as they are dependable). My monthly payment is quite low compared to others, and i can either buy it or turn it in at the end of the lease this year. Since I live in the city and it has thus gotten a few dents and dings (not my fault) I will have to figure out repairs before I turn it in. Or else, I’ll just buy it at the predetermined price.

No matter how you slice it, if you live in a large city, owning a car is a big PIA and a money suck. ;-)

Comment by Get Stucco
2018-06-05 03:26:33

All your reasons help explain why it’s even more better to lease a house than a car. At least you can take your car with you if you lose your job and have to relocate. Some people even manage to live in their cars!

 
 
Comment by brazendetre
2018-06-04 18:06:22

I said some months back that every one of my surfer buddies - some of them very uh, dirtbagish, are driving new trucks - almost all toyotas which are NOT cheap. Some I didnt even recognize at first and did a double take like something out of a cartoon. Many of these guys are in the trades and building is hot and heavy still, maybe more than ever although I dont see a lot of sales but that may be because inventory is tiny under 500K and whats out there is super old and tear down material. I assume there are good terms.

The craziest got the big american trucks with the lift kit, etc. They have no idea whats in store for them when the music stops.

 
Comment by rms
2018-06-04 18:19:26

It is easier to obtain a new car loan than it is for used right now.

Comment by Get Stucco
2018-06-05 03:29:22

Does this reflect buyer classes?

Comment by rms
2018-06-05 09:44:29

Wolf has had a couple of good threads recently regarding this topic.

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Comment by taxpayers
2018-06-05 04:15:21

72 month car loans
refi your used car
Our parents weren’t smart enough for that kind of leverage.
After age 30 the car you buy is the one you can write a check for.

 
 
Comment by Bagholder
2018-06-04 14:42:53

From the OCR:
Huntington Beach 92649: $850,000 median, up 18.1 percent in a year.
Westminster 92683: $660,000 median, up 17.3 percent in a year.
Huntington Beach 92648: $910,000 median, up 12.3 percent in a year.
Garden Grove 92844: $480,000 median, up 17.8 percent in a year.
… Keep on pumping.

Just came across this gem trying to clear $500k in two years time - and this time with little to no reno.

Comment by Jeremy Barrett
2018-06-04 16:15:04

Sorry URL didn’t post:

These two gems sold in 2016 and are now listed at 500k increased with no reno. Increased listing rate in SoCal to get while the gettin is good.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/679-Woodbridge-St-San-Luis-Obispo-CA-93401/38434088_zpid/

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/279-Main-St-Morro-Bay-CA-93442/114452384_zpid/

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-06-04 15:23:54

Rancho Cordova, CA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY As Sacramento County Economy Slips Into Recession

https://www.zillow.com/rancho-cordova-ca/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

 
Comment by cassiopeia
2018-06-04 16:30:09

Actually, I am beginning to sense some change in my corner of SoCal (West LA), and it is super recent. Until about only two weeks ago, my search on Zillow, which is always buy or rent in the very same zipcode (with no price range since the listings were so very few) turned out about one and half pages of results. Now, all of a sudden, since last week, I am getting 3 pages of results. What’s happening is the older listings do no “move” and new ones are being added. I see a similar increase in both for sale and for rent listings. Only a few months ago, you would see the “sold” banner appear on a listing from one week to the next.
Wow! and there is also a price cut of $45,000 on a nice condo that is now going for “only” 1,450,000 bucks.
Perhaps things are going to start moving faster is this trend holds…but no, wait, the sky is falling! Let’s bail out bankers and lenders! We’ve seen it happen before, so I am not holding my breath.

 
Comment by Taxpayers
2018-06-04 16:30:28

Topeka ,ok it has skyscrapers n all
But declining population
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topeka,_Kansas

Comment by MacBeth
2018-06-04 20:32:42

Topeka’s a soulless dump. Of the 37 state capital cities I’ve visited, the only capital city that might be worse is Montgomery.

The best capital cities? Carson City, Salt Lake City, Helena, St Paul, Tallahassee. Despite the considerable differences between them, all are great in their own right.

Nashville, Madison, Pierre, Salem and Charleston ain’t bad, either.

Comment by MacBeth
2018-06-04 20:34:25

Dover is pretty cool as well.

 
 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-06-04 18:19:10

This one got caught doing what realtors do best.

“Former Realtor Linked To British Columbia Gangs Facing Money Laundering Charges In US”

http://vancouversun.com/news/crime/former-realtor-linked-to-b-c-gangs-facing-money-laundering-charges

 
Comment by jeff
2018-06-04 19:04:34

I bet they know where the dog is.

Department Of Homeland Security Compiles List Of All Bloggers, Journalists, & “Social Media Influencers”

by Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/04/2018 - 16:26

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-04/department-homeland-security-compiles-list-all-bloggers-journalists-social-media

Comment by rms
2018-06-04 19:37:44

The dog might be on their payroll. :)

 
Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2018-06-05 13:16:22

He’ll pop up (oldie but goodie)…
Floating Dog

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-06-04 19:44:43

Bellevue WA Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Real Estate Brokers Attempt To Conceal Seattle Area Housing Correction

https://www.movoto.com/bellevue-wa/market-trends/

 
Comment by Get Stucco
2018-06-05 03:09:35

“In L.A. County, there have been 3,368 new home listings since January, up from 1,478 in the before. Overall supply stood at 11,417 listings. The number of closed deals in L.A. County dipped to 5,824, down 9 percent from last year.

Is now a good time for dips to buy?

 
 
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