It’s Not Time To Panic, But This Market Is Cooling
A report from the Denver Post in Colorado. “Metro Denver’s housing market normally softens as the summer wears on, but this year it is cooling faster than normal. Higher borrowing costs are a likely culprit. The number of homes sold in the metro area dropped 15.6 percent in July from June, and year-over-year the decline is 8.5 percent, according to the Denver Metro Association of Realtors. ‘It’s not time to panic, but this market is showing signs of cooling, and Realtors need to manage seller’s expectations as market conditions change,’ advised Steve Danyliw, chairman of the DMAR Market Trends Committee.”
“The inventory of homes and condos available for sale at the end of July rose 4 percent to 7,643. That is still under half the historical average for metro Denver, but it represents the biggest supply for a July in three years, Danyliw said in his report.”
The San Mateo Daily Journal in California. “High real estate prices along the Peninsula may soon hamper home sales, according to a recent report questioning the sustainability of the region’s historically expensive market. Such a trend would continue the current market trajectory, as the median home sale in June price dipped by about $200,000 from just a couple months prior, according to the San Mateo County Association of Realtors.”
“But with the median home sales prices across the county sitting at about $1.6 million according to the most recent SAMCAR data, it is reasonable to expect the unprecedented levels of unaffordability will begin to take a toll, said CoreLogic. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic, points to markets in Southern California and the Bay Area, where costs pushed sales volume down by an average of nearly 10 percent over the last year.”
The Miami Agent Magazine in Florida. “Miami’s housing market may be turning toward one favoring buyers moreso than sellers. That’s one finding from a new study of Miami-Dade County’s real estate market by the Miami Herald and polling firm Bendixen & Amandi International. Two major factors indicate a shift in Miami housing prices in the coming months. There is a 32-month supply of condos in downtown Miami, indicating an oversupplied market. There are also plans for new rental buildings, only adding to Miami’s supply saturation. Landlords and owners will have to lower prices in order to stay competitive, according to the Miami Herald study.”
“With prices expected to drop, 49 percent of agents and brokers surveyed for the study said now is a good time to buy. Only a quarter of the agents and brokers recommend selling given the current state of the market. An overwhelming 74 percent of those surveyed say now is the time to own rather than rent.”
“Luxury properties are seeing an oversupply trend as well, but prices are already low. Luxury properties in Miami are being sold at prices 15 to 20 percent lower than their original asking price.”
From The Real Deal in New York. “Price for empty Georgica Pond-front plot once owned by David Geffen slashed to $19.9M A 1.64-acre property on the shores of Georgica Pond had its price cut for the first time since it hit the market, dropping by $3.6 million from its original ask of $23.5 million, Curbed reported. The property had been part of a 5.5-acre compound that media mogul David Geffen bought from Courtney Sale Ross for $52 million in 2014. Developers bought the compound from Geffen two years later, subdivided it and put the pieces back on the market. Two were sold for a combined $24 million, 27east reported in May.”
Here’s the Curbed report:
https://hamptons.curbed.com/2018/8/3/17638660/25-west-end-road-price-cut-georgica-pond-east-hampton
‘Such a trend would continue the current market trajectory, as the median home sale in June price dipped by about $200,000 from just a couple months prior’
Oh dear.
Trolls, you know the drill by now. It’s how many times a day now?
Trolls: ‘Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.’
https://www.shmoop.com/quotes/i-picked-the-wrong-week-to-stop-sniffing-glue.html
Home prices soar in these cities, states
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/home-prices-soar-in-these-cities-states
“The biggest year-over-year price jump was seen in Nevada, where the average home was 12.6% more expensive in June when compared with the year prior. CoreLogic predicts prices in the state will rise by more than 9% over the period ending in June 2019.”
Las Vegas home prices ’slowing down,’ sales totals ‘leveling off’
Las Vegas Review-Journal-36 minutes ago
Las Vegas house prices are cooling off this summer and the full-year sales tally might be …
Sounds like LV real estate is foobar again.
From the same article:
John Tortorella … bought the onetime site of Friendly’s in Hampton Bays for $1.3 million. … Though he plans to remodel the interior of the 5,200-square-foot space, he’ll leave much of the structure untouched, 27East reported. Friendly’s shuttered in July 2017 when Malvasio raised the rent on its franchise owner.
Another example of a greedy LL. I wonder how long Tortorella’s new restaurant will be able to pay jacked-up rent.
FYI Friendly’s is a casual (cheap) restaurant chain in the northeast, specializing in ice cream desserts and geared toward families with kids. Not meant to be a high profit center.
Avon, CT Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY As New England Housing Bust Accelerates
https://www.movoto.com/avon-ct/market-trends/
‘‘It’s not time to panic, but this market is showing signs of cooling, and Realtors need to manage seller’s expectations as market conditions change’
Good old Steve with his sage advice. Let’s see, what would ‘manage seller’s expectations’ entail?
“Stop being so greedy you bashtards, I’ve a Benz payment to make. Prices are only headed lower!”
‘It’s not time to panic’
Isn’t this an odd thing to say? Year after year, the market is so strong! It’s supply and demand, there’s a shortage, nothing is being built. Lending is up to Senator Running Deer’s high standards. Employment will soar forever! Everybody wants to live here.
And at the first sign of sales and prices falling and they start talking panic. Standing on thin ice Steve?
Heh heh…it reminds me of a music gig I once played, off rental parts. Under the thorniest passage, whoever had previously played off the part had written, “Don’t panic!”
From ANIMAL HOUSE: “Remain calm - all is well!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro
North Bethesda, MD Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY As Housing Correction Barbecues NoVA/DC Homeowners
https://www.movoto.com/north-bethesda-md/market-trends/
‘With prices expected to drop, 49 percent of agents and brokers surveyed for the study said now is a good time to buy’
Hold on just a durn minute…I thought now was always the best time to buy…or sell…per Suzanne’s research.
Why buy now when you can wait for the panic to take hold and get it for 30% less in a couple of years?
Or 60% to 70% in the luxury range.
“get it for 30% less in a couple of years?”
Or 80% less a few years after that.
You can consider waiting out the mania, until the point when the countless victims of their own real estate investing greed collectively insist that, “You’d have to be crazy to buy real estate.”
It may take a few more years to reach this epiphany.
So, according to a whole bunch of UHS, a good buyer strategy is to buy right before the imminent price collapse. I get it now.
Indian River Shores, FL Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY A Panic Drives Vacation/Coastal Property Market
https://www.movoto.com/indian-river-shores-fl/market-trends/
Inventory building during peak buying season…where are the buyers? Where did all this inventory come from?
It’s all downhill from here.
I was on this site from late 2003 to early 2009…I called the bottom and stopped posting. But still visited. I’m back to posting and have tons of popcorn
‘Inventory building during peak buying season’
‘Metro Denver’s housing market normally softens as the summer wears on, but this year it is cooling faster than normal…it represents the biggest supply for a July in three years’
August 7, 2018
‘A report from the Seattle Times in Washington. ‘The change began suddenly in May — normally the peak buying season — and has only accelerated since…The number of homes for sale across King County jumped 44 percent in July from a year ago, the biggest increase in a decade and the third straight month of huge inventory growth…Inventory now exceeds 2015 levels’
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10524
Denver and Seattle were among the hottest of the hot, no? Wa happened?
I’m back to posting and have tons of popcorn
So am I. Which means the shitstorm is due any day now.
Yep, same here, back after nine years with popcorn, except now I have kids and I’m going to buy at the bottom this time.
The real estate syndicate’s management will fold leaving their public pension fund investors “holding the bag.” Property taxpayers will be asked to make retirees whole, but it’s just not going to happen.
Crispy! Welcome back. I trust your namesakes in the central valley are still in prison?
Yes…still doing hard time!
Where *is* all this inventory coming from? I don’t know. Panicking investors… renters can’t keep up with rent (especially for SFH)… buyers getting discouraged… baby boomers finally getting a health problem and downsizing… standalone properties no longer allowed to be rented via AirBnB… or maybe all these “homes” are fresh-built condos… all of the above?
It doesn’t seem to be the usual death/divorce/job loss. So I really don’t know.
“Where did all this inventory come from?”
You can hide 25 million excess, empty and defaulted housing units for only so long.
he number of homes sold in the metro area dropped 15.6 percent in July from June, and year-over-year the decline is 8.5 percent, according to the Denver Metro Association of Realtors. ‘It’s not time to panic, but this market is showing signs of cooling, and Realtors need to manage seller’s expectations as market conditions change,’ advised Steve Danyliw, chairman of the DMAR Market Trends Committee.”
Okay, so I’m trusting the realtors will give the FBs plenty of warning when it IS time to panic, right? Isn’t that the way it works?
Oh, wait….
Landlords and owners will have to lower prices in order to stay competitive, according to the Miami Herald study.”
Ya think?
“Luxury properties are seeing an oversupply trend as well, but prices are already low. Luxury properties in Miami are being sold at prices 15 to 20 percent lower than their original asking price.”
Um, yeah…wake me up when they’re 50 percent lower than their original asking price.
Some of them were 50% below what was paid a couple of years ago. I documented it but you’ll never hear it from the media. New York City too.
Okay, then I’m hanging a sign on the back of my lawn chair: “To be carried out first in case of housing bubble crash. Do not tilt!”
Bellevue, WA Rental Rates Plunge 13% YOY As Seattle Housing Market Craters
https://www.zillow.com/bellevue-wa-98004/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on rental chart
It’s been three weeks and there’s no news on Mel Watt’s harassment investigation. Here’s hoping he gets tossed and Trump appoints somebody who won’t throw money so freely. IMO bring back Ed DeMarco. He’s currently head of the Financial Services Roundtable, bank-sponsored lobbyists.
I liked DeMarco. Housing Bubble 2.0 didn’t go into hyperdrive until after he left.
The amusing thing is that in 2010-2012 DeMarco was lambasted by libs that he alone was holding back the economic recovery by not bailing out FBs and not allowing people to buy with ridiculously loose lending standards.
Chinese developers’ “Build fast and sell fast” business model has resulted in shoddy construction. But I’m sure it’s different here.
https://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/2158628/chinese-property-developers-face-rising-complaints-rush
“The quality of houses in China these days is the worst,” said Li Jun, executive director of Hong Kong-listed Greentown China Holdings, speaking at the recent Boao Real Estate Forum in the southern island of Hainan.
“We will see a huge wave of complaints among buyers in the coming two years,” he said. “It is not one developer’s problem. Every developer will face these negative issues. The environment in our industry is getting tougher.”
Nevertheless, developers are unlikely to drop the build-fast model.
Sounds like the Chinese housing market is about to begin a very long downhill slide.
The Financial Times
Chinese economy
China forecast to hit ‘peak housing’ and suffer decline in sales
Property no longer expected to buoy significant demand for commodities and labour
Structural factors point to an end to China’s 25-year housing boom
© Reuters
Gabriel Wildau in Hong Kong
July 21, 2018
Housing sales in China will peak this year and then begin a long-term decline, an inflection point that will drag on growth in the construction-heavy economy and hit global commodity demand, according to economists.
China’s economy has reduced its dependence on property in recent years, but construction remains a crucial growth pillar, employing 27m workers and fuelling demand for steel, copper and cement. Growth of housing sales has also been remarkably consistent, with only two annual declines since data began in 1992.
But the paring back of a government subsidy programme that provided about Rmb2tn ($300bn) in cash support to homebuyers since 2014 is adding to structural factors weighing on the market.
Housing sales in China totalled 1.4bn square metres in 2017, an annual increase of 5 per cent. But subsidies accounted for a quarter of housing purchases last year, estimates Bo Zhuang, China economist at TS Lombard in Beijing, implying that without this support sales would already be in decline.
The programme provided subsidies to residents displaced from dilapidated slums targeted for demolition to buy commercial housing from existing stocks, mainly in smaller cities.
…
I wonder how many trillions of dollars wall street has heisted form investors trying to short the stock market over the past 10 years?
Shorting “markets” where fundamentals no longer matter and regulators and enforcers are in bed with the Wall Street grifters is a good way to get your face ripped off.
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/07/this-is-precisely-why-ive-been-saying-dont-short-tesla-or-anything-in-this-crazy-market/
More Fed jawboning about the need to normalize interest rates after nine years of scorched-earth financial warfare against savers and the financially prudent. Powell seems like a more responsible central banker than Zimbabwe Ben and Yellen the Felon, but acts speak louder than words.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-barkin-says-interest-rates-need-to-rise-to-normal-levels-2018-08-08
You’d have to be a special kind of stupid to buy into the biggest housing bubble in human history, despite all the red flags, right on the cusp of the biggest housing bubble implosion in human history. Looks like these bagholders-to-be put a little too much stock in their realtors’ “research.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-rise-at-the-fastest-pace-in-more-than-four-years-defying-expectations-of-a-pullback-2018-08-08
“You’d have to be a special kind of stupid to buy into the biggest housing bubble in human history …”
Nah, there is nuthin special about the rampant, unfixable stupid that we all are surrounded by and (if you are clever) get to take advantage of.
Naples, FL Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Boomer Retirement Trend Ends
https://www.movoto.com/naples-fl/market-trends/
Odd factoid: The stock market nearly always swoons when we go on vacation.
Stock futures come under pressure amid renewed trade tensions
By Mark DeCambre
Published: Aug 8, 2018 9:02 a.m. ET
All eyes on Tesla as Wall Street vets Musk’s go-private talk
Bloomberg News/Landov
Tesla draws attention.
U.S. stock benchmarks were on track to open slightly lower Wednesday as investors contend with a fresh round of tariff clashes between the Trump administration and China, which helped to knock Asian markets lower.
…
August is always thinly traded, which means Da Boyz can manipulate it that much easier while the worthless SEC slumbers on.
National debt is about to roar back as top issue (opinion) - CNN
(snip)
This article, as gloomy as it is, is not without humor …
“One thing is for sure — Washington needs to grow up. Stop the demagoguery. Make some adult decisions. These numbers are so large that the solution cannot be solely spending cuts or tax increases. Both parties will need to compromise to find a path forward.”
😁
https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/31/opinions/barreling-toward-trillion-dollar-deficits-macguineas/index.html
CNN never saw it as a problem when Obama ran up 9 trillion in debt despite paying virtually no interest on the debt and actually receiving hundreds of billions of dollars from the Fed due to their buying of debt with money created out of thin air and then receiving interest on the debt which exceeded the costs of running the federal reserve. However now that we have 21 trillion dollars in debt thanks Obama for your oversized contribution Trump is actually reducing the debt as a percentage of GDP, you add 3 percent growth with 2 percent inflation and you get 5 percent nominal growth. You multiply that by the 21 trillion dollars and anything less than a one trillion 50 billion deficit next year is actually improving the situation. His first two years were way below two trillion combined actually around 1.2 trillion so good progress so far. MAGA. So why is it a big problem CNN? Wait perhaps that re-election year recession is looking less likely and you would like to see the combination of higher interest rates, Fed balance sheet reductions and tax hikes and military budget cuts cause one?
“it’s not time to panic”
Isn’t that what the captain of the Titanic said, knowing that they were going down and didn’t have enough life boats for all on board?
Those who panicked lived to tell about it. And those who are doing everything in their power to dump property that they can’t afford to carry for the next 5-10 right now will probably live to tell about it as well. It is absolutely time to panic.
America’s Housing Crisis Is Forcing More People To Live In Vehicles
Wealthy cities like Berkeley and Seattle are seeing a boom in people calling their cars and RVs “home.”
The Huffington Post
David Uberti
August 8, 2018
“In late June, the city served an eviction notice on the vehicle dwellers, who were told they would be ticketed or arrested if they did not leave the marina willingly. The makeshift neighborhood, which the city claimed drew public safety and sanitation complaints, has split up as a result. Whitson and some of the others have since been parking in mostly industrial areas on Berkeley’s west side, shuffling their vehicles every 72 hours to avoid fines.”
““These are people who are turning to vehicles as affordable housing,” said Graham Pruss, a doctoral candidate at the University of Washington who studies vehicular residency in Seattle. “It’s not that they want to live a nomadic life. They’re looking at the environment around them and they see that options don’t exist for sedentary housing, so they create it.””
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/america-housing-crisis-living-in-vehicles_us_5b680be3e4b0fd5c73db49bf
Westminster, CO Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Denver Housing Bust Deepens
https://www.movoto.com/westminster-co/market-trends/