The Housing Bubble

The East Valley Tribune reports from Arizona. “The Valley’s existing home market continued to drag last month with sales showing 35 percent decline from a year ago, a report by Arizona State University’s Realty Studies department shows. Year-to-date through last month, there were 47,690 sales – a 24 percent drop from the same time period last year and a more than 50 percent tumble from 2005.”

“‘Although there is a large inventory of available homes, buyers appear reluctant to take advantage of the market,’ Realty Studies Director Jay Butler said. ‘The first issue is that most buyers have to be sellers, which is difficult in this market.’”

“In November, the Valley’s median existing home price was $240,000. That’s the lowest monthly price since $235,000 in May 2005.”

The Arizona Republic. “Meritage Homes is seeking lower payments on property it purchased near 56th Street and Loop 101 in the Desert Ridge community. The giant home builder purchased the 288-acre property in July 2005 for $92.2 million. The State Land Department was the seller.”

“Mark Winkleman, land commissioner, says such land deals typically are set up like mortgages. The department is ‘constrained,’ he said, in what it can do to ease the financial burden on land buyers.”

“‘We can offer deferred interest payments,’ Winkleman said.”

“Winkleman says it typically takes 2½ to three years for rooftops to show up in newly purchased land, ‘but where the market is now, there has been no activity for who knows how long.’ All home builders have ‘excess inventory and land they cannot use,’ Winkleman said.”

“In another example of taking a long time between purchase and actual development, D.R. Horton only recently opened a sales office for its Cielo project on land it has owned since March 2004. The company says it will begin construction in 2008 - a full four years after it bought the land for $49.3 million.”

The Arizona Daily Star. “Staring the real estate slowdown in the face, a local restaurant owner is working on plans to turn a former restaurant site into a condominium complex. Jeff Petersen, of Scottsdale-based Landmarc Capital & Investment Co., which has agreed to fund the project, said the complex would have about 40 to 50 units priced at about $175,000 to $225,000.”

“One local real estate broker who specializes in condos said the complex may not be a sure bet. ‘Right now the condo business is really price-sensitive,’ said OnSite Realty owner Caroline Auza. ‘There’s so much inventory on the market right now that they’re shopping everything and buying where they can find the best deal.’”

“Local builder Canoa Homes…is planning to auction off 10 homes starting Wednesday in a weeklong process. The minimum bids range from about $150,000 to about $200,000.”

“The properties are in the Southwest Side, Vail and Corona de Tucson, said Jerry Wade, VP of sales and marketing for Canoa Homes. All of the homes were built for customers who canceled their contracts, Wade said.”

“‘We’ve found we have more inventory than we feel comfortable with,’ he said.”

The Review Journal from Nevada. “Nobody’s ready to declare that the Las Vegas housing market has reached bottom, but some real estate experts are convinced the floor is at least being established.”

“The inventory of homes for sale receded slightly in November to 23,494, about 400 fewer than the previous month, and sales remained below 1,000 for the third consecutive month, the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported.”

“Inventory is up 19.1 percent from a year ago and sales are down 37.4 percent.”

“‘It appears we have reached the bottom everyone is waiting for,’ Robin Camacho of American Realty & Investments said. ‘December is looking horrible, but it’s December and it’s always the worst month.’”

“Realtors sold 968 single-family homes in November at a median price of $273,500, an 11.2 percent decline from a year ago. Condo and townhome sales fell 50 percent to 162 and the median price is down 10 percent to $180,000.”

“‘Prices are still dropping, in large part because investors are buying up the best deals,’ Camacho said. ‘Prices are still dropping while sales are rising. I think we have an ideal buyers’ market that won’t last much longer.’”

The Associated Press on Nevada. “Jackie Castleberry won’t be playing Santa Claus this year. This year she is just struggling to keep her North Las Vegas, Nevada, house.”

“The interest rate on her four-bedroom home loan shot up in October and she is $6,000 behind on her payments. She now owes $168,000 on her home, which once was worth $220,000 but is now worth about $150,000.”

“In the past, when times were tough, she would borrow against her home’s equity — that’s no longer possible.”

“‘I was always seen as the person that’s giving, but it’s kind of affected this year,’ said Castleberry, a former casino buffet supervisor who now makes $11 an hour, 30 hours a week, supervising children before and after school. ‘This year, I can’t see anything right now as far as gifts.’”

“Money’s also tight for Deborah Vick, a Las Vegas home loan officer who says she’s cut back on spending since the housing slowdown took hold and cut her salary in half. She used to have a BMW and a Land Rover, but had to give up the BMW to a company that took over her $600 a month lease.”

“‘If you have to give up a luxury item, which you probably shouldn’t have purchased in the first place, you know, for me it was a learning experience,’ she said.”

“‘My daughter’s having a fabulous holiday. She always does,’ Vick said. ‘Am I going to go buy myself another car this year? No.’”

The Nevada Appeal. “Chad Hill, of Dayton, left the renter’s world to pursue home ownership, recently closing on a house in a subdivision off Dayton Valley Road. Hill said prices finally came down far enough for him to buy.”

“‘It’s much better now that the interest rates have gone down some and you don’t get stuck in one of those ARM loans with a balloon payment,’ he said.”

“Up to 2004, Dayton home prices were lower than Reno and Carson City. If Reno’s and Carson’s prices were out of reach for a homebuyer, Dayton was a popular alternative. Then, from about 2004-2005, Nevada’s housing market took off, and brought Dayton with it, pushing prices to starting in the high $200,000s and out of reach for many.”

“Sheena Beaver, of the Builders Association of Western Nevada, said the median price of a new home in 2006 was $269,000 in the Dayton area, and for 2007, the median price was $242,000.”

“In 2006, the median sold price was $282,500, and the median list price was $295,000. The median sold price for 2005 was $288,950, and the median list price was $292,000.”

“Jody Foley, of Coldwell Banker Best Sellers, said it does take longer for listings to sell, and sellers should be ‘realistic’ in their pricing. Some sellers may not be listening to that advice, as the 125 homes on the market in Dayton through Nov. 30 show the median price to be $369,900, and the average time on the market at 150 days.”

“The statistics on expired or withdrawn listings in Dayton show some sellers chose to wait until the market picks up. In 2007, 80 listings expired or were withdrawn, with median list price of $417,400 and an average time on the market of 165 days.”

“‘It’s a great time for buyers to be out there looking and buying,’ Foley said. ‘There are good buys out there and there’s so many to pick from now.’”

The Reno Gazette Journal from Nevada. “The city of Reno is allowing developers to abandon their unfinished subdivisions and avoid the high cost of continuing projects that are not selling in the current slow housing market.”

“John Hester, Reno community development director, said he proposed the new policy when builders such as Centex, West Haven and SilverStar Communities asked if they could stop making payments on construction surety bonds, which cover the cost of multimillion-dollar public improvements.”

“‘With those three who came to talk to me, they don’t want to finish until the market is better,’ he said.”

“Centex is making bond payments on and paying property taxes on 1,240 recorded lots in its 1,517-lot Bella Vista Ranch project in the southeast Truckee Meadows.”

“At the end of September, Reno had 9,310 lots among its recorded subdivisions, up from 8,030 in February 2006, according to the University of Nevada, Reno. Throughout the Truckee Meadows, 15,036 unsold home lots are recorded on final maps, up from 11,111 at the end of 2004.”

“With new home sales expected to hit 2,000 this year, the inventory of recorded, unsold subdivision lots represents about a seven-year supply.”

“As of September, 62,584 lots have been approved on final or tentative subdivision maps in the Truckee Meadows, according to the regional studies center. That’s up from 45,964 in 2000 before a building boom began.”

“John Wright, a local real estate appraiser for 23 years, said the policy could help builders who paid cash for their land and public companies that start work on a non-controversial project and now want to suspend work until the market turns around.”

“But he said the policy won’t help small private builders who are financed by banks that require them to maintain their land approvals. ‘They have an alligator to feed every month,’ he said, in paying interest on loans to buy land. ‘That becomes a huge cash drain.’”

“Wright said he expects a number of builders to be foreclosed on next year and their lenders to take back entire subdivisions. He expects these subdivisions would be sold at a lower price, providing another blow to the housing market.”

“And he said another hit could come when more existing homes are dumped on the market at discounted prices next year. He said 36 percent of existing homes on the local MLS are vacant, and owners, including speculators, can’t hold onto them forever.”

“For the greater Reno-Sparks area, about 895 subdivision homes, including models were up for sale at the end of September, including 518 in Reno.”

From Business Week on Utah. “A year ago the six-bedroom house where Scott and Dawn Norton raised 10 children in the shadow of a Utah mountain range would have been snatched up. The Provo (Utah) home, which is listed for $368,000, seems to have plenty going for it.”

“For most Americans, the housing slump began in 2006, but in Provo and adjacent Orem, home prices leaped 14% in the quarter ending Sept. 30, compared with the same period in 2006, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s Nov. 29 report.”

“Still, the Nortons have knocked $30,000 off their original asking price, set five months ago, and are giving a 3% discount to any buyer who comes to the closing table without an agent.”

“Why offer incentives in a hot market? Well, it seems that even some of the nation’s strongest markets, including Utah, the state with the highest third-quarter year-over-year appreciation, are losing steam.”

“‘We live in a great area, and I know we’re priced reasonably,’ says Dawn Norton. ‘I’ve had a Realtor tell me, ‘It’s not just your house.’”

“‘I keep hearing that Utah’s economy is great,’ says Kevin Shoell, who owns title company Title One in Salt Lake City. ‘But the housing market isn’t great. I’ve heard the stats before [about the state's home prices]. Everybody in the industry is looking around and saying, ‘Who are they talking about?’”