Bits Bucket For June 24, 2008
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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GM, Cuts Production… Adds Zero Down Financing..“No one knows where the bottom is in this sales environment,” David Healy, an analyst at Burnham Securities Inc. in Sierra Vista, Arizona, said in an interview. “GM has plenty to be worried about since they derive so much of their sales from these large trucks.” .
Here they go again with the zero down, it is one reason they have not turned a profit. So how in the world do they think this will help?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601209&sid=amf8CmBH40L0&refer=transportation
A friend lived in Sierra Vista, Az. about 10 years ago and described a “S.V. Yuppie” as having both a job and a car…
They may have re-introduced 0% financing, but they also raised prices by 3.5%.
Yes they have, it’s my understanding that 3.5% is to cover increased shipping costs, still doesn’t add to any profit. The lumbering big three are dying on the vine.
And how is detroit different than Toyota who announced on WBBR this morning that they were slashing production of their pickup line for the 3rd time due to crumbling sales?
my neighbors kid (around 23 years old) just got a new chevy blazer. i saw him on saturday and said wow nice truck congrats. and the next words out of his mouth were
it gets pretty good mileage, yes i am sure it does .lol
il stick to my 2002 elantra 30mpg city thank you very much
I think Toyota has been faster to adjust to the market conditions, I know a dealer and he says truck sales are down, no doubt but that Prius sales are way up and back ordered. Either way it’s gonna be survival of the fittest.
Check out this doublespeak from a Detroit Free Press article today:
“There still is a very large vibrant truck market out there; it’s just a lot smaller than it used to be.”
Then the GM VP goes on to say there’ll be a recovery of truck sales later in the year, but as usual there’s nothing given to back it up.
I think the key difference between Honda, Toyota and the big three is that Honda and Toyota actually have small cars that people want to buy.
The big three have decided to depend upon SUVS and Trucks for their profits. That plan seems to be running into some pretty rough waters right now.
Add that to the problem of legacy costs for the big three and they will have to come up with some danged good little cars to bump Honda and Toyota off of their perch. Because those small cars aren’t as profitable as those big SUVs, which means they will have to sell 4 small cars to make up for the profits of one big SUV. And they need that profit to cover retiree benefits.
My local Toyota dealership had no small cars on the lot to sell the last time I was there. They had larger cars of course. One person there told me that there was a four-month wait for the Prius.
I’m seeing a lot of Honda Fits and Toyota Corollas and Yaris models on the highway. Consumers are changing their purchasing behavior.
I think the key difference between Honda, Toyota and the big three is that Honda and Toyota actually have small cars that people want to buy.
Toyota is selling every single Prius it can manufacture. Ford is selling every single Escape Hybrid it can manufacture.
Honda is increasing production of the Fit to meet demand. Ford added a third shift at the Focus manufacturing plant in Michigan but still can’t produce enough of them, so Ford recently announced that they are converting the Explorer plant in Louisville KY to the Focus as well as other future small cars.
Toyota built an expensive factory to make full-sized V8 trucks and they currently can’t give them away. Now they are slapping a supercharger on that V8 and hoping to sell it as an “Ironman” package. Ford cancelled their largest V8 for the upcoming F-150 and is going to offer it only in the Super Duty version. They also have a smaller F-100 under development that will offer better V6 gas milage while still giving a lot of utility. The Ford Ranger is still the most fuel efficient truck for sale in the US, and Ford is selling every single one they can manufacture.
Over the past few years, the Japanese and German makes have been trying to out-V8 the big three. Look at the size of the V8 in the newest Mercedes SUV (6.3 Liters!!!).
I’d say that all the major manufacturers are in the same boat. The only standout is the Prius - mainly because of the hype surrounding it. But Toyota is pretty limited in how many they can make so it’s not doing much for their bottom line.
An analyst for Emunds was interviewed on Bloomberg WBBR last week put the previous trend quite succinctly and I’m paraphrasing; “Those who fed the truck and truck based SUV mania of the last 7 years didn’t really need a truck. Trucks are for moving material, not commuting”.
But Detroit did a good job of capitalizing on the strongest hand which is trucks.
I think the key difference between Honda, Toyota and the big three is that Honda and Toyota actually have small cars that people want to buy.
Ford and GM do have these kind of cars. They just don’t sell them in the US. That will soon change.
Interestingly enough, according to BusinessWeek the Big Three are causing housing prices to increase in Michigan:
Mitchell and other former auto workers also are using their buyout cash to take advantage of a byproduct of Michigan’s recession — foreclosed homes. Mitchell has bought three houses for $35,000 to $66,000, which he rents while waiting to give them to his three children. He has already turned over a property to one of his daughters. Other workers who have taken early retirement have scooped up foreclosed homes for as little as $5,000 a house, banking that property values will rebound in the next decade and make the investment pay off. The result is that home sales in Detroit are spiking by double digits.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20080624/bs_bw/jun2008db20080623156900;_ylt=AmXejyIQ6dedYzQKIkKENFKBGLMF
There would be a strange irony if auto workers were able to buy up enough of Detroit to actually improve the place.
Also, when is Ford going to get around to selling the European Focus in America? I heard that’s a nice little car.
when is Ford going to get around to selling the European Focus in America? I heard that’s a nice little car. Virtually all manufacturers sell small, neat turbocharged diesel engines for their small cars in Europe. MPG is 40+, sometimes much higher. Figures I read for 2L Ford Focus diesel was 43 mpg. None is available in the USA.
RE: Virtually all manufacturers sell small, neat turbocharged diesel engines for their small cars in Europe. MPG is 40+, sometimes much higher
‘Tis true.
It was an embarrassment to return to this country after a trip to England with its’ $8.50 USD per gallon gaz and view the pig iron the Big 3 give American’s to drive.
However, the worm is turning.
Nukes, trains, and the Chevy Volt will be the future-if there is one after 2012.
It’s a bluff and a dumb one.
They are offering 0% financing for five years, and they think they are going to raise prices in this environment?
BWAHAHAHAHHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
0% for 72 months - following the new trend - engineer loans that outlast the purchase itself. Pretty soon parents of newborns will have to start little savings accounts for junior’s first car.
i am in the market for a new car….they say they are going to raise 3% for 09 models…..are they forcing my hand???
hmmmmm
Saw it this morning - 0% up to 72 months - six years.
No idea what GMAC’s standards are on the financing - given how burned GM got in the past, I wonder if this is mostly a bluff to get consumers in the door. Once at the table, the “computer check” says they don’t qualify for the 0% financing, but GMAC will give them 5.9% for 72 months, “only increasing their monthly payments by $32.37″!
And it would probably work.
72 months is just insane to pay off a car
my wifes 2nd cousin (very removed thank god)
is driving a 2 or 3 year old escalade he bought
and rumor is paying $700+ a month for get this 84 months
i nearly fell out of my chair when i heard that
man some people are just too stupid
if i cannot pay off a car in 3 years or less i am not buying that car
There is no such thing as 0% financing.
What happens is that the buyer thinks he’s paying, say, 40K for the car, but the loan is immediately sold to a finance company (in this case GMAC) for the discounted value, say 30K, at the true rate of the loan, say 8%. Like all sales incentives, it’s a scheme to mask price declines from those who don’t know better.
GM makes money financing, not selling cars, and they still own a chunk of GMAC.
I used to do securitizations on car loans. I was just the tax geek, so I don’t know much about how they qualified the pools, but I doubt most investors are dumb enough to belive a high rating on bonds made up of these loans.
A few years ago I was leaving a family gathering, and my wife’s aunt lambasted me for “driving a foreign car”, and I should support “american jobs”. I pointed out that my Honda was built in America (Tennessee) and pointed to the VIN beginning with a “1″. When I pointed our her GM car was manufactured in Mexico (VIN began with “M”), I could tell should literally wanted to knock my head off.
Note there are two posting as “Incredulous” today; me, the capitalized regular, and you, the lower-cased newcomer.
Unless you want people to think you’re gay AND married, you might want to change your handle. Besides, how can one truly be incredulous without capitalizing to dramatize the point?
Or I can change my handle, if Ben allows that (new name, old IP address?).
Incredulous, congratulations. I’m tying the knot this weekend.
Hey, good for you both.
My wife is trying to get me to go to CA, but I’m holding out for NY.
I’m not married, the other (i.e., heterosexual) “incredulous” is. That was my point. By adopting my handle, he may be adopting my identity. Poor thing . . .
“my neighbors kid (around 23 years old) just got a new chevy blazer. i saw him on saturday and said wow nice truck congrats. and the next words out of his mouth were it gets pretty good mileage, yes i am sure it does .lol”
At this point of rising gas prices? In NYC of all places? Positive spin: At least it is not a Suburban.
GM car/truck prices up by 3.5%?
Obviously DEFLATION, no?
Let’s see how many sell first, and how many are dumped on the market for what they will sell for.
High wishing prices do not translate into high prices.
Hmmmm … where have we heard that before?
Obviously DEFLATION, no?
Obviously DEFLATION, yes!
They can’t sell them today’s prices so they’re going to sell them at tommorow’s higher prices? Lol.
Sounds like “buy now or be priced out forever”.
BTW, zero interest on a car loan is a thinly disguised price discount.
People are broke due to the contraction of the economy, which is deflation. No money, no sales.
As wmbz pointed out, that 3.5% is going to cover transport costs. That’s money that will not be available for investment that might have enabled future growth and created more jobs. Instead that 3.5% will probably wind up buying new nighties for some prince’s entire harem.
That’s money that will not be available for investment that might have enabled future growth and created more jobs. The American economy depends on consumer spending, not on creating jobs.
SpecuFlation — inflation created by investors chasing yield or attempting to preserve capital in the commodities market. Either way, specuflation or deflation, demand is shifting leftward.
Better buy
a house…er, I mean gold, lots of gold…and oil. They aren’t making any more gold or oil. They’re running out. Buy now or be priced out forever. Only a fool would let the equity in his Federal Reserve Notes sit in the bank.Remember, kids…gold and oil always go up!
So I should allocate a quarter of a million dollars for red December puts divided between, say, gold 750 and oil 100 strike?
I should allocate a quarter of a million dollars No, you should send it all to me, I will put it to a good use. LOL.
Obviously DEFLATION, no?
CHARGING high prices is not inflation, if inflation is mistakenly viewed in terms of prices and not changes in money supply. It is PAYING those high prices. Money now spent on truck is generally agreed to be far less than a few years ago. So, yes, obviously deflation.
They are clearing out ‘08 inventory w/ this offer to make way for fewer more fuel efficient vehicles that will have the 3.5% price hike.
They are also marketing to the military hard right now giving them every offer on their books + reduced pricing on top. They have a road show touring military bases across the country. They are taking out full page adds in all the military news papers in every issue for the last couple of months.
Sadly, the military is marketed hard for every sort of scam. I went to visit my brother who is in the Army at Ft. Stewart, GA, before he was deployed. I also have a crewcut, but am non-military, and when we went to the mall people were desperately marketing to us assuming we were both military, even though he’s in army shape and I’m way too out of shape.
The military are severely underpaid and often turn to crazy financing schemes for things like cars and homes. And after spending 15 months in Iraq getting paid combat pay, many have 30K+ or more in the bank having had no expenses during that time. A lot of soldiers spend the money on cars instead of their futures, which makes me sad.
Also, the risks to the lenders is minimal. One phone call to the Commanding Officer is usually all it takes to resolve a late payment issue.
That is so wrong on so many levels!
Nothing against you.
I served ‘80-01. Debt adverse.
Can’t imagine what our gentlemen and ladies are sacrificing;
physically, mentally, spiritually, FINANCIALLY.
Sigh,
Leigh
Leigh:
Thank you for serving, in whatever capacity. Sitting here in my air-conditioned comfort drinking a Diet Pepsi WIld-Cherry, I take way too much for granted.
Husband Vietnam era vet—Air Force. Vet groups are the only ones I will give any money to.
Yup,
I was in the Army from 1975-1978. Vet groups are one of the few I will donate money to.
There is nothing for you to be against me.
I was just reporting what I’ve observed.
I enlisted when I was 17 in 1983 & I still serve to this day.
I’ve heard that lending large amounts of money to people who can’t pay it back is a great way to get rich!
Don’t worry - I am sure the Fed will soon be accepting defaulting auto-loans along with worthless, mortgage-backed securities, at the Discount Window!
I see a great reality show in this as Bubbles Ben Bernanke and his merry band of Fed governors drives around the natino repo’ing cars, houses, etc. since the Fed now owns all that crud thanks to the banks unloading it! And all the while, Bubbles Ben wonders what happened to the Ownership Society! Hahahaha!
I’ve heard that lending large amounts of money to people who can’t pay it back is a great way to get rich!
As long as you are lending out Other People’s Money, and collecting fat comissions along the way, then it works great!
Philadelphia’s Housing Woes
May Provide Lesson for Lawmakers
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
June 24, 2008; Page A14
PHILADELPHIA — Congress and the White House are heading for a showdown on whether the federal government should provide billions of dollars for state and local authorities to buy and repair foreclosed homes.
“The House has approved such spending, and the Senate appears likely to do so as early as this week. Supporters say local governments need federal money to help them prevent homes from being left vacant, an invitation to crime and blight. But the White House said Thursday that the main beneficiaries would be lenders stuck with foreclosed homes they can’t sell.”
“One point is being missed in this squabble: No matter what Congress does, some cities will end up owning more crumbling houses as owners fail to pay taxes and do their maintenance. Taxpayers will foot the bill. The bigger question is: How can cities quickly get this property back into productive use?”
“For perspective on this debate, it helps to stroll through Philadelphia’s Ludlow neighborhood, about a mile north of the city center. In this neighborhood and others like it, the Philadelphia Housing Authority became one of the main property owners in the 1970s and 1980s, acquiring homes through foreclosures after owners failed to pay their mortgages or taxes.” … (cont’d)…
Yep, rip them down!
Lord, ya just can’t make this stuff up!
Leigh
They talked about doing this in San Diego during a Community Reinvestment Task Force meeting earlier this year.
Only one way to fix the problem here is get those homes filled with actual families willing to live in them.
We need cities to maintain the homes while they’re empty and file first-positions liens against the properties for all maintenance and administration costs. After a set period of time, if the lenders don’t get the houses sold, the cities should auction them off at municipal auctions, with those costs also covered by the liens.
At the auction, the city is paid off first, and the remainder of the money goes to the lenders.
Solves the problem of neighborhood blight, protects taxpayers’ money and lets the entities responsible for the bubble (lenders) take the well-deserved hit.
Resolution Trust Corporation??
This one might be tooooooooooooooooo beeeeeeeeeeg for such a notion.
Sir Hoz - comments!
Leigh
P.S. This is ugly.
I just got back from 4 wheeling and waking up. Lovely Leigh, I am convinced that anything the government does at this point will only prolong the debacle.
As an aside during the weekend, we rode down to Marinette County, Florence County Wisconsin and stopped at the ritual taverns, bars and inns of ill repute to see old friends and acquaintances. The entire disposable income for these counties is tourists. Business is down 50 - 75%. On Sunday, we passed three other quad groups and in the past, it would be 50 -60 groups that created a traffic jam that we would have to pass.
Sir Hoz,
“”As an aside during the weekend, we rode down to Marinette County, Florence County Wisconsin and stopped at the ritual taverns, bars and inns of ill repute to see old friends and acquaintances. The entire disposable income for these counties is tourists. Business is down 50 - 75%. On Sunday, we passed three other quad groups and in the past, it would be 50 -60 groups that created a traffic jam that we would have to pass.”"
Fixin…er…(out comes the Fluridaa).
Anywho..Marinette Cty is the destination for the clan get together for Independence day! Wahoo!
Dang, sure hope we have a service sector for all the festivities.
Sniff…quads are drying up? What is happening to this world!
I feel like crying!
Leigh
Hey Hoz,
I was up in Wisconsin this past weekend. Went to a concert that pretty much sums up Wisconsin for visitors - you never know what you will smell next. Cows, pot, the puke of someone that drank too much beer… It was just like all the trips I made up to Madison in college (minus the cows of course).
Along the way, I saw a lot of fields with barren patches that were obviously caused by standing water. Also a bunch of swollen ponds that were still flooding some fields. Overall WI looked quite green and healthy, but I bet a good number of farmers will be in the red this year.
The midwest is a flood plain and the central valley of California is dry as a bone…
I wonder who is going to supply the food for around 320 million people in our country, in about 6 months time?
Oh, no!
First we are out of water!
And now we are out of food!
Oh, no - it’s never been dry in California before and the Midwest has never flooded.
Ever. No water or food for anyone.
Sheesh.
Indiana and Iowa (certainly not the entire midwest) will recover from the floods, and even prosper as a result in the future.
California will not recover from the drought, and will only get worse, year after year.
Overall WI looked quite green and healthy, but I bet a good number of farmers will be in the red this year.
Thats what crop insurance is for.
“it’s never been dry in California before”
We’ve never had 40 million+ people all using 100 gallons of water a day, combined with a drought the likes of this one…
It all boils down to a numbers game.
Well, when water stops coming out of my tap, you’ll be the first to know…
Figure on Hetch Hetchy being full for another month, and then there will be no more water til next spring…
IMO, we do not have a Cali water shortage problem, we have a Cali water management problem…
80% of California’s water goes to grow food, and farmers in the central valley are letting their crops die on the vine, as there is no water for them, this summer.
That should frighten the hell out of people, but no.
What really ticks me off about the housing boom was that tens of thousands of houses were built in the southwest. No developments that I’m aware of used grey water recycling or rainwater catchment.
Not to mention the fact that these huge houses were built without much regard for energy conservation or production (HELLO!!! solar or wind power in the middle of the deset, perhaps???).
Where, or in who’s pocket, was the Community Reinvestment Task Force four years ago when they should have tryed to prevent the problem in the firt place?
But, if you put people in them who want to live there, they would have to be able to AFFORD the house. That means a lower price and no debt serfdom for the home-owners; it would also impact the yacht puchasing habits of the upper class in a negative way, and we can’t have that. Affordable housing goes against the principles of the “Ownership Society” - as in “We, the banks, own you!”
Responding to both of your posts…
The Community Reinvestment Task Force consisted almost entirely of bankers, of course!!!
I suggested that the way to fix the “foreclosure crisis” would be to reduce the principal amounts of the mortgages (this was before people were actually talking about it). You should have seen their faces — like I killed their mothers.
Why should the gov’t “BUY” foreclosed homes? Who owns them and why aren’t THEY taking care of them? Simply levy fines for activities they want to discourage, just like they do for littering or jaywalking, etc.
If the gov’t would streamline it’s ability to take property in arrears for taxes then it could then sell them into the market quickly before much decay. This process would of course lower property values which would work against the gov’t revenue stream. But in the end it would take care of the specific problem of housing decay.
Hell, they could sell the homes for a $1 with the caveat that the buyer has a recourse responsibility to maintain said property to a minimum standard. Then ENFORCE the friggin rule! Lot’s of vultures would be swooping in for that deal, I would think.
But…but, then the developers would go out of business and they wouldn’t be around to start building again in two weeks when all the pent up “demand” starts housing on a 100 year exponential growth curve…
This is the perverse government incentive for non-action….stall delay waste taxpyers money then give away the property for $1, all while keeping your job.
———————————————
If the gov’t would streamline it’s ability to take property in arrears for taxes then it could then sell them into the market quickly before much decay
Hell, they could sell the homes for a $1 with the caveat that the buyer has a recourse responsibility to maintain said property to a minimum standard.
No they can’t, because the Constitution requires governments to pay the owners fair value for property taken under eminent domain.
But they can just auction the property, and give the owner whatever is left after back taxes and fines. If the government wanted to sell it to someone with strings attached, it would have to outbid the highest bidder at the auction. If however there is no bid exceeding back taxes, the value is zero and they can just take the property.
The real intent of getting funding from the feds is, once again, to try to prop up the market, not to get people into the houses.
No they can’t, because the Constitution requires governments to pay the owners fair value for property taken under eminent domain.
I guessed you missed the part where the government gets to decide what the fair value is?? Here is what happened in Arlington Texas when Bush wanted a new stadium for his Texas Rangers. Imagine what predicament you would be in if you were not the heirs to a multi-million dollar fortune able to hire the best attorney’s in Texas (as happened to a friend of my mother two years ago):
The Mathes family was one of those that tangled with the Rangers when they were under Mr. Bush. The family, the heirs of a television tycoon named Curtis Mathes, owned a piece of land near the stadium, and agreed to sell if the price was fair.
What would be fair? The city had previously paid $10 a square foot for a sliver of that same property to expand a road, Horace B. Kelton, a family member and spokesman, said. But in the end, court documents show, the city warned off another potential buyer and seized the property for less than $1.50 a square foot.
The Matheses went to court, and a final settlement gave the family more than $11 per square foot.
”It took us seven years and we spent millions of dollars on legal costs,” Mr. Kelton said. ”It was grossly unfair, until it was rectified by the courts.”
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=980CEEDB173AF937A1575AC0A9669C8B63&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all
This whole blog is about fair value for housing. Eminent domain is a small issue compared to the housing bubble. Some of the housing in the cities has a negative value unless occupied, regardless of what the preceding FB “paid” for it.
This whole blog is about fair value for housing.
Well, the name of the blog is thehousingbubbleblog so I would have to disagree and say its about unfair housing values.
For fair value housing you can go to http://www.realtor.com where it is always a good time to buy a house.
There is no home ownership society. There is a debt accumulation and blame game society.
RE: Why should the gov’t “BUY” foreclosed homes?
Man, in my appraisal travels I used to watch homes the VA took over via foreclosure. Some use to just sit and rot for years before you’d see a “For Sale” sign go up.
A lot of these houses were POS to begin with, but as the VA honcho’s use to say at the appraiser certification meetings-”GET the VET in the house-DON’T CAUSE WAVES MAKING COMMENTS ABOUT PHYSICAL CONDITIONS…”
Of course when the place went belly up, and the VA sent in a foreclosure appraiser who would list all the physical deficiencies…they would then send a threatening letter to the original appraiser saying-PLEASE EXPLAIN THE LACK OF ACCURATE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN YOUR REPORT RELATIVE TO THE PHYSICAL CONDITION OF THIS HOME!
The idiots just luved to burn both ends of the candle.
LMAO…just think…it’s these types of misfits who will be overseeing the $300 billion worth of shit the government will own via Dodd’s bill.
Real estate investment looks to have been the direct route to the poorhouse, as it turns out.
Irony is so common nowadays, it’s the rule rather than the exception…
French Housing Starts Fall 21.6% in the Three Months to May
Tue Jun 24, 2008 03:11am
“”CEP News) Frankfurt - On Tuesday, the French Housing Ministry reported that the number of housing starts in France declined 21.6% year-over-year in the three months leading to May. Economists had expected a less severe fall of 18.2% following the previous period’s 18.8% decline.
While all the categories saw declines, the strongest decreases were seen in the number of new hotels/hostels, which saw a fall of 34.1%.
The number of housing permits also saw a decline in the three months leading to May 2008, falling 19.9% compared to the same period one year ago. In the three months to April, the number of housing permits had slipped 16.3%.
http://www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/article/93073“”…(Cont’d)
NOOOooooooooooooooooooooo!
Leigh
Whoops - link.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121426201354698241.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Apologies - curtsey ~ mixed the link(s).
Need more java.
Blush,
Leigh
I went to the stupid market last night. Used one of the little hand scanners that is supposed to let you scan your own groceries as you go along instead of doing the self scan at the end or use a store employee to check you out.
What a crappy system!
When I got to the end and I scanned the “finished” shopping code, it wouldn’t accept it. Because I wasn’t yet “into” the system, there was no help button to press to get someone from the store to come to my station. When I finally got the guy who was specifically working to help customers with the system (standing in the aisle and waving my hand yelling), he got it wrong several times before finally figuring out how to let me pay with cash and a coupon. And, since he was desperate to get me out of there (I was loudly declaring what a terrible system it was and how I would never use it again) and was just doing it instead of demonstating, I still have no idea how to do it.
They would have to completly re-engineer the thing before I would even try it again. And I think I may just stop going to that store - there are plenty of others in the area and they deserve some punishment for rolling out a system without making sure it works for new users. Oh and for putting a Starbucks in the store which takes space away from the produce section. Punishment.
Get this, you have to scan your shopper card to take one of the scanners (I guess they want to know who has it in case you steal it), but even though the scanner is communicating wirelessly with the payment station (see reference to scanning the finnished shopping code) you have to scan your card again at checkout. Why? Never mind that the system doesn’t tell you when to do it, why do you have to do it at all? And the coupon thing - I know most people don’t still clip them, but I do sometimes. If your store takes them, tell people when to scan them. If you don’t want to take them, say so and be done with it.
Miserable, rotten, jerks. And all of this for a system that allows them to fire half the people who are desperate enough to work as grocery scanners/baggers. Please note, my father was one of those people. Actually he worked up to it as a teenager from stock boy. Grandpa was a vegetable buyer.
The supermarket checker of my youth was an amazing person…
They had to know prices of everything, and be quick on their fingers, and were rewarded handsomely for their efforts, wage-wise.
About 5 years ago, checkers in L.A. went on a long strike for more money, not realizing that their salad days had passed them by.
You could train a monkey to scan items, nowadays…
aladinsane -I AGREE 100%
the old days the check out people actually had to have a brain and work not just roll things over a laser reader
my supermarket did the same thing putting a starbucks in the store even though there is a full service starbucks store 80 yards away in the same shopping center
good news today for me
getting a stmulus check of $1200 around the 4th of july how patriotic and my hedge fund buddy at cerberus informed me he is taking me to see Pearl Jam charity show at the beacon theatre in nyc next tuesday $500 a ticket (small theatre great place to see music)
i am also going for coffee on wednesday with my boss at my 2nd job i have been working and he is pushing me to leave my job and join him full time il keep you posted it could be a huge raise in salary (40%) for me
i am very happy today
Congratulations on your job offer, mgnyc99, and even better a major “atta boy” for being noticed so quickly!
The cream does rise to top in these times.
Congratulations.
The Beacon Theatre is great. I live right next to it.
I did it for one summer back in college.
The place I worked at divided the front-of-the-store employees into 3 groups - grocery cart getter, bagger, cash register operator. Pay was the same, your work ethic and quality of work determined your grouping. Slack off and you get bumped down, work hard and you get bumped up.
My only motivating factor was that I preferred memorizing produce codes to pushing hundreds of pounds of steel carts around a blacktop parking lot in the 95 degree sun. I spent my free time at the beach so I wasn’t exactly hurting for my daily vitamin D.
Remember when people in retail could count change ? My father owned a gas station [service station] even for $1.00 of gas [wich was over a gallon when I worked there in the late 70`s] you got your windshield washed front and back oil, fluids and tire preasure checked. If your bill came to $9.60 and you payed with a $20.00 we counted back .40 is ten and ten is twenty, thank`s a lot have a great day. Today where ever I pay cash,they take my money look at the register [wich tells them how much change they owe me] pile the coins on top of the bills, dump it in my hands and usually look at me wondering why I am not leaving fast enough.
In the ’60s, I was basically out of cash after a date and of course no credit cards back then. Needed gas to get the rest of the way home, and luckily there was still a quarter in my pocket. At 29.9 cents a gallon, that 5/6 of a gallon of gas got me home with enough left over to make it BACK to a gas station the next day!
We’ve started paying cash upfront for groceries lately instead of charging and paying later. I would say about 50% of the time we get incorrect change, even with the correct amount showing on the register. It’s usually 1 to 10 dollars in our favor. MOST of the time we correct them
Well….
I used to be a cashier. I’m very fast with arithmatic and basically ran the numbers in my head with the register as my backup.
I never counted money back because that would have confused me. X - Y = Z, so I’m giving you Z, not giving you back X. Anyway, I was selling food, a consumable, which is worth zero once you stick your fork in it, so, anyway…
I have run into people counting change back. I assumed it was because they had trouble with figures and kind of pitied them. I didn’t know it was a thing.
Sorry if I sound sharp-edged… I was 17 at the time. I never realized that counting back could be a customer service. In my mind, you gave me X and now I owe you Z, so I am going to count out exactly Z. I put the coins in a little pile so you don’t have to pick them off the counter.
Oh, and some people have weird religious requirements and may not be able to touch hands with you, even during a transaction of that sort.
Number one our cash register didn`t figure anything out, ever heard the song Money by Pink Floyd
Number two if you take someones money say out of twenty and count it back to them it`s hard for them to say you gave them the wrong change
Number three, have you been at a McDonalds when the cash register screws up and doesn`t tell them what the change is, they are lost
IMO, the best way to figure change is to round up to the nearest dollar and figure change from whatever they gave you. Then, round up tens, then ones.
Example: if someone gives you a $20.00 for $9.56 order, you round up to $10, so you know you owe them a $10 bill. Then you round up the tens to $.60, so there’s forty cents, and then four more cents for the difference between $.56 and $.60.
Sounds more complicated than it really is.
I was a cashier for a few years in my youth, and could beat the registers when calculating change.
Never did understand the whole point of “counting back”.
It`s not complicated,thats the point! People on registers today can`t count, add, subtract, multiply or divide without calculator.
Example; if you give someone $20.00 for a $10.56 order,they dump change a receipt, singles and a five in your hands. Do you stuff it in your pocket and walk away or seperate the receipt count the singles to make sure they didn`t screw up.
Being the Capitalist Pig that I am, I purposely dishonered that strike and proudly went into my local supermarket (when I lived in LA) to make a point. I never side with unions. Once a group of grocery employees razzed me while I crossed the line. I was kind of worried about my car at that time since it was near new.
My hubby, (I love him so) insists useing the “do it yourself check out line”.
Thank heavens DH is not adverse to returning items.
All too often the darn “self check out” charges incorrectly.
Use more gas returning incorrect priced items!
Call me “old fashion” - I’d rather wait in line and read a rag that I would never purchase!
Leigh
Rant off
I rarely use self check. If I’m going to do an employee’s work, I want a discount.
I’m with you on that one.
Time cost of money. If there’s no line for a clerk, I’ll use them. If there’s a line, I go self-check.
I usually go right to the front of the self-check line.
Depending on the time of day, if there’s a line for a cashier, I’ll end up waiting 5-10 minutes while customers ahead of me fiddle with check writing, “I thought that only cost…”, mindless banter about the weather with the clerk, and other such wastes of my time.
Me too!! I love to read the gossip mags in line and would never waste good money on such trash.
so to summarize, you love free trash
Me and the wife use it - we love it.
1) We bring our own bags, so the food goes straight from the shelf to the scanner to the bag.
2) You have total price control - scan something, verify the price vs. what is on the shelf - if it doesn’t match, either bother to find someone or do without.
3) It works well - get to checkout, scan barcode to check, scan card to close the transaction, scan coupons, pay. Takes all of 30 seconds.
4) Lower costs - I’d bet that this wasn’t done on a whim - so lower costs, even if it doesn’t translate into lower food prices, does allow increased profitability. Given that somewhere one of my mutual funds probably holds the stock of some grocery chain…
5) Faster. Much faster than any other system out there.
Ah, yes, you had a very different experience with “3″ than I did. I had to wait in line for over 10 minutes to even get to a checkout station. Scanning the barcode to checkout didn’t work even after 3 or 4 tries. The instructions didn’t tell you to rescan your shopper’s card even though it is a required step. The instructions didn’t tell you when to scan coupons and there was no way to go back to that step once the system refused to take coupons as part of the payment system. Very different.
Like I said, there are other reasons to avoid that store. But I kind of like stopping right after having a miserable experience with the system. Maybe I’ll go in and buy one thing at a regular checkout lane every once in a great while so they know I haven’t moved.
Ah yes, “instructions.” Another way for a company to cut corners and costs. Assign an employee (maybe even an offshore employee) to write them regardless of his/her qualifications. Then don’t bother testing them. Just slap them on the product or print them on a tiny sheet of paper to be included with the product.
I like reading your posts, Polly. Cute name BTW.
Thank you very much. On both counts.
“5) Faster. Much faster than any other system out there.”
No kidding - supermarket behaviour is up there in my ‘10 Things I Hate About America”.
‘Manned’ checkouts are slow because people seem to lose the use of their hands when it comes to packing their own groceries.
I’ve developed an interesting way of getting the line to go faster…. I stand behind someone and complain loudly and bitterly to the Husband (we like to shop together) about how lazy and selfish Americans are when it comes to packing groceries.
How much longer it takes for others to go through, while we wait for some perfectly healthy adult to stand around watching someone else put their groceries in a bag, while doing nothing.
How ‘fin de ciecle’, how ‘Fall of the Roman Empire’ it is to make the hired help do all the work, especially when there’s a 10-deep line behind you, tapping their toes, waiting for you to finally pi$$ off.
I like to throw in the fact that its considered typical of the ‘entitlement mentality’ which most of the world just detests about America, to hold other people up, in order to get staff to pack your groceries for you.
The Husband, of course, helps this along by tutting me and saying ‘you can’t say stuff like that, people might hear you‘…. he’s a good man
You will occasionally get people who deliberately take as long as possible to get out the door.
But, in the majority, the people in front of you - who’ve heard the whole diatribe, struggle manfully (or womanfully) to figure out how to pack and get out of the store as soon as possible, even if they’ve never packed a grocery bag in their lives up till that point…..
Shame - its a great tool when used sparingly
“I’ve developed an interesting way of getting the line to go faster…. I stand behind someone and complain loudly and bitterly to the Husband (we like to shop together) about how lazy and selfish Americans are when it comes to packing groceries.”
This made me laugh…If I heard someone yakking away like this behind me, I’d deliberately slow down,take a while to find my wallet, or, just tell you to STFU. Bullying is not a social strategy.
LOL
Yeah, it doesn’t always work, but,when it does, it makes the line go faster
And, sadly, American’s inability to pack their own groceries really is one of the ‘10 Things I Hate About America’.
As long as I can remember I’ve bagged/help bag my items in the grocery store. I suppose it speeds up the line, but my real motivation is common courtesy as I figure why not help out a cashier who is just trying to get through each work week? Often the register people I see in my area are as old, or older than I, so why not lend a hand if it saves then some effort/aches and pain? I believe many of us relish the small acts/words of kindness in our world and don’t appreciate the self-absorbed people who always put their needs first. I relish the people in my life who exude cheer/kindness/compassion/helpfulness to their fellow human beings. Seeing a healthy looking person standing at the checkout register making no attempt to help a (especially older) cashier bag their numerous bags of items leaves me feeling cold about human nature. Have a nice day (insert smiley face here).
And, sadly, American’s inability to pack their own groceries really is one of the ‘10 Things I Hate About America’.
It’s an American custom. Bagging groceries used to be an after-school job for kids or a leg up for guys down on their luck to get back to making a few bucks. Still is in a lot of places.
As for your ranting working, does it occur to you that folks may be embarassed for your husband and speed up to spare him further humiliation?
Why sweat the small stuff?
Hey, I would rather pack my own groceries because I’m particular about how they’re packed, but I also like to check prices as they’re scanned. Usually some bagger gets there and aggressively starts doing to job so I basically have no control. Or I can bag and I have to rectify prices later. (& find service desk or manager. fun.)
The real problem is that people are buying 3 weeks worth of groceries at once. In Europe it’s 1-2 days at a time.
Anyway, if you’re in a place like Publix, especially if they have ADA sorts as baggers, you can’t exactly elbow the employee out and say I’ll bag it. They get all offended and you’re not supposed to mess with “their” bags and whatnot anyway.
Spike, I understand that its a custom, and its totally appropriate to wait for the elderly and people with small children - who honestly need help with their packing.
And maybe you misread the part about the Husband…. he’s in on the act. He just pretends to be outraged.
And, if making me the bad guy helps get people through checkout and out the door quicker, what’s not to like?
More interestingly, why are you taking such umbrage to what was supposed to be a silly anecdote? Why tell me to STFU? Do you do your own packing?
I’m not sweating the small stuff. Well, I am sweating, it still crazy degrees farenheight here in SoCal.
Isn’t there anything that drives you totally crazy?
Speeding,
I’m probably overreacting,but being forced to listen to someone ranting and raving in a supermarket line after a long day at work doesn’t strike me as amusing, especially as you see it as some kind of “act”or performance art. I’m hot, I’m tired, I’m overworked, I just want to get my stuff, pay and go home.
Life is full of lines, some brits even learn to queue…others apparently move to America and abuse the locals.
I usually enjoy your posts, but this one hits a nerve. Just a thought, this act is possibly a little dangerous. I think you’re in Cali…with a lot of angry, stressed-out FBs. You might run into someone you’ve aggravated looking to unload some rage in the parking lot.
Really, you might want to rethink this one and just go with the flow. You don’t have to like it.
Point taken Spike. Sorry to have rattled your cage.
I won’t even take exception to the notion that I might be run over in a car park for a bit of in-store shenanigans, because I know you didn’t mean it personally.
‘Nuff sed’, as they say on my side of the pond.
Speeding,
very gracious reply.
by the way, I was serious about not stressing other folks… for your own safety. Stuff that gets blown off when the good times are rolling, can snap back at you when people are under the gun. I meant it as a friendly heads-up. I’m guessing you’ve lived here for a while, but just in case, this is not the stiff- upper-lip-crowd, more the find a target and let it rip crowd.
RE: I went to the stupid market last night. Used one of the little hand scanners that is supposed to let you scan your own groceries as you go along instead of doing the self scan at the end or use a store employee to check you out.
What a crappy system!
Home Depot’s worse…their system will collapse and there will be nobody at the front to fix the stupid machine.
I never get sucked into those “check yourself out” systems for exactly the reasons as to what happened to you.
I figure that what I’m payin’ for includes the services of a cashier. WTF should I add a subsidy to the store’s labor costs by screwin’ around with a system which doesn’t work and leaves you out there in your underwear looking like a dolt who cant’ cope with tech.
We are “MORE FOR LESS” Nation
Anecdotal stories…
Each summer between Memorial Day and Labor Day, the hubby and I keep track of all the out of state license plates we see in town (Grand Rapids, MI). (Hey, what can I say. We like cheap fun!) We cross them off a little card I write up each year. I think this is the sixth year we’ve been doing it and we’re finding NOTHING. Other than the usual suspects from nearby that we always find right away (IL, IN, OH, NY), we aren’t seeing much of ANYTHING. We should have marked off at least half of the states by now and we have only crossed off a few.
HAR!!
Thanks - a new road game for us!
We count the number of “for sale” signs - getting old, I tell ya!
Leigh
leigh how do you find the time with the proliferation of for sale signs?
the express bus i take into the nyc every day for work is getting packed! $4.50 a gallon will do that
i have not filled my tank in almost 3 weeks (4 cylinder)
Wisconsin is a big state and we drive and drive!
Hecks, we drive a large portion of the 48!
(Ducking under desk) - we’re retired - hated ones I tell you!
Leigh
Mg you probably pass right by me at greenpoint ave and the LIE…you live out in kew gardens?
Same here with the gas i am walking more..i need it…but still where do i really need to drive to? it costs almost $30 to do a round trip to see my mom in Norwalk CT, not really worth it to try and bypass the tolls.
Parents and inlaws all dead. Kids either live in town or too far for an easy visit. I don’t have to feel quilty about not spending gas to visit. Of course son will be back at college in the fall. It’s less than 200 hundred miles round trip. That won’t be too bad. He just may not get to come home as often as he did last year.
So far this summer there’s an unprecedented number of MI tagged cars parked on Chicago side streets. MI has passed IN for the #1 spot and even OH is gaining fast. Is there anyone under 30 even left in MI?
edgewater
all under 30 mi and oh residents are living in brooklyn ny
with the bedbugs and their art supplies and trust funds for some
think williamsburgh,greenpoint and bushwick
Interesting, because ours are more usually seen moving in with golf clubs, bicycles, and other sporting goods in place of the art supplies. They’re almost always accompanied by a pair of very anxious Boomer parents who aren’t very clear on the concept of big city driving and parking.
all under 30 mi and oh residents are living in brooklyn ny
with the bedbugs and their art supplies and trust funds for some
Lots of them here, too. (The more paint on the clothes, the bigger the trust fund.) They stick around after their stint at the Art Institute to make difficult films and play in noise rock bands. Heck, some eventually become productive members of society. And some actually move from Chicago to Brooklyn to “make it.”
We do see lots of the high-strung Type A business school finance types who never want to go back to Youngstown, too. Maybe those are the golfy types Edgewater was talking about.
Did you happen to catch the thread yesterday where “Tim” was speaking about Atlanta? Seems that’s another city depending on “Type A business school finance types” from the hinterlands to buy up their condos.
The big question for us in 2008 - how will our F.I.R.E. jobs hold up? Mfg. is now coming under withering assualt - price hikes and production cuts at every turn. How long until it affects the moneychangers?
No, I didn’t see the thread about Atlanta transplants, but that doesn’t surprise me. It seemed like a town of transplants during my few visits there (I was there mostly in the mid-to-late ’90s, though).
The big question for us in 2008 - how will our F.I.R.E. jobs hold up?
Yes, that is the big question. I’m not sure the FIRE industry is ready to hear the answer.
When we lived in TX in the 80’s, the recent immigrants from MI (and there were a lot of them) were known as the “black tag people” because of the color of their license tags.
The exodus from MI has been going on for at least that long.
I hail from Detroit, spent 15 years in “glamorous” Boston, and now live in Cleveland (wife’s hometown) and am very happy here. (Would have left Detroit after college even if there WERE any jobs there in early ’80’s…figured out the place was doomed when I was about 10). Survived the late ’80’s/early ’90’s Boston bust (which was CARNAGE) only to be priced out in the late ’90’s boom. The % of natives in Boston that I knew was quite low - almost ALL from the Midwest (even CHICAGO)! - since people go to school there and just stay. I was neither a paint-daubed trust-funder nor a “Type A” MBA, just a regular person who wanted to live in a REAL city. Well, Greater Cleveland is a nice cross between the intimacy of Boston and Midwest unpretentiousness. It is a “complete” city with great arts, sports, culture, recreation, neighborhoods, music, hospitals, parks, fresh water, colleges, more transit than most places (but I miss the “T”) and a low cost of living ($750K condo in Boston = $165K home in a near-in walkable Cleveland suburb with good schools!). Have lived well on one income for 8 years after 8 of scraping by on two in Boston. (Yes, 20% down, low fixed rate, no HELOC, housing costs<15% of gross). Sure, the economy is tough, but so is it everywhere, in some fashion, for someone. You just have to work extra hard and persevere. And manufacturing is alive and fairly well here, thank you - just not the big-company-set-for-life kind of jobs. Strangely, though, Cleveland is most appreciated by those of us who are non-natives dragged here by our spouses; the quality of life here is easy to take for granted by natives if you haven’t lived in a place as horrific as Detroit or as bubblicious and Yuppified as Boston. Many people return here after being someplace “glamorous”. And the spirit of entrepreneurship is reviving rapidly here as well if one understands the ol’ crisis = opportunity Chinese cliche’. So send us your Paint-Daubed, your Housing-Poor, your Huddled Masses (golf clubs and all) sick of traffic jams, yearning to live affordably. We lift our lamp beside the Golden Door (which is a great local bar, BTW). Remember, even if yopu ARE one in a million, in New York there are TEN OF YOU! All the best to everyone on this blog, I love it, keep the wisdom coming and your powder dry! Marqis Dee
RE: now live in Cleveland (wife’s hometown) and am very happy here.
Gotta luv the Rock n’ Roll Hall of Fame.
Easy ride to the big coasters at Cedar Point too.
Boston sucks.
Just go ask major league baseball fans across the nation.
Hey..
3,4!
3,4!
3,4!
3,4!
Ahhhhhh…
All this energy callin’ me
Back where it comes from
It’s such a crude attitude
It’s back where it belongs
All the little kids growing up on the skids
Go “Cleveland rocks!”, “Cleveland rocks!”
Jumpin’ Jene Jene and Movin’ James Dean
Go “Cleveland rocks!”, “Cleveland rocks!”
“Cleveland rocks!”, “Cleveland rocks!”
“Cleveland rocks!”, “Cleveland rocks!”
“Cleveland rocks!”, “Cleveland rocks!”
Mama knows but she don’t care
She’s got her worries too
Seven kids and a phony affair
And the rent is due
All the little chicks with their crimson lips
Go “Cleveland rocks!”, “Cleveland rocks!”
Livin’ in sin with a safety pin
Go “Cleveland rocks!”, “Cleveland rocks!”
“Cleveland rocks!”, “Cleveland rocks!”
“Cleveland rocks!”, “Cleveland rocks!”
“Cleveland rocks!”, “Cleveland rocks!”
I’ve got some records from World War II
I play ‘em just like me granddad do
He was a rocker and I am too
Go “Cleveland rocks!”
“Yeah Cleveland rocks!”
Cleveland rocks!, Cleveland rocks!
Cleveland rocks!, Cleveland rocks!
Cleveland rocks!, Cleveland rocks!
Cleveland rocks!, Cleveland rocks!
Cleveland rocks!, Cleveland rocks!
Cleveland rocks!, Cleveland rocks!
Cleveland rocks!, Cleveland rocks!
Cleveland rocks!, Cleveland rocks!
Cleveland rocks!, Cleveland rocks!
Cleveland rocks!
OHIO!!!!
I was at the Grand Haven State Park last Wednesday June 18 at 1 pm and the parking lot was empty. Granted it only got up to 65 degrees that day, but I thought it was shocking.
I drove there from Lansing and the highways were empty.
I then went to Muskegon to witness the foreclosure fiasco. That town is one big ghetto.
Then I went to Ludington and I thought I was in paradise. They got 10 inches of rain in 10 hours two days before I arrived. There are currently only 2 foreclosures in Ludington. They never got caught up in the bubble. Lots of places for sale and cheap; (they don’t have any jobs there). Being retired I’m thinking of moving there. A beautiful and safe low cost area for retirees with unbelievably low housing prices and rents too I might add.
For those unfamiliar, Ludington is right on Lake Michigan.
I am a bit concerned about the global cooling currently going on. For those that believe in global warming; come to Michigan and freeze your a** off. By the way, Lake Michigan is fresh water, he he he.
Swami, there isn’t a place in the world I’d rather be in the summertime than west Michigan (grew up northeast of Muskegon). Blue skies, warm breezes, great beaches, awesome and relatively cheap golf, lots of lazy, hazy days. Too bad it’s so tough over there to support one’s self.
Yup, you live in one of the most beautiful states in the Union, for sure.
But it seems tough all over Michigan, not just in the (relative) hinterlands.
Its wierd, we’re seeing the opposite over here in L.A.
The Husband and I went for our weekly swim at the beach on sunday, and took the Pacific Coast Highway on the way home - it was crawling with out of state licence plates.
The only explanation we could figure out was that - as we were near Pepperdine University - students were either driving thier cars home at the end of school, or others were coming across country to set up house for Summer School or the beginning of the Fall semester.
In any case, there were crazy numbers of Ohio, Wisconsin, New York, etc.. plates around - god knows how a student could afford a road trip of that length with gas over $4 a gallon.
Can you come here and cross all the CA plates off the map?
U.S. Backed Mortgages Fuel Risks…Mortgages that allow consumers to put little if any money down when buying a home have largely disappeared as a financing option available from private lenders. But they are still available — and growing more popular — through a government-backed program.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121426681678998589.html?mod=todays_us_page_one
When I bought my place - the first mortgage broker I talked to suggested a similar program - called the Genesis program. The seller would “give” Genesis the down payment plus closing costs. Gneiss would then give me the money minus $900 at the time of home purchase. The Genesis people would hold the money for a few days and collect $900 - not a bad deal for little to no work. From what I understand, they would then kick $300 back to the broker and keep $600. I later found out that this charity program was really set up by a home builder (I think it was K.B. Homes) and is nothing more than a shell game. It has nothing to do with real charity - just moving product.
In the end, I worked with another broker and just put the standard 3.5% down on a nice, existing home. The seller picked up most of the closing costs and I was happy.
“Genesis” - named after the weapon in Star Trek II, I assume… except this one converts nice neighborhoods into foreclosed dumps!
“Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress……but I repeat myself.” ~Mark Twain
wmbz
did you see my reply last night? My friend’s charleston’s website…..i might be driving down there in the fall to see all the changes..
http://www.jettstarr.com/
Yes I did, come on down, how long has it been since you were in Charleston? Lot’s of changes. Mt.Pleasant went out of control also. As you know the tourist industry is heavily counted on to keep the machinery humming along, but hey it’s different here!
Nice Web site… The coastal Carolinas really are pretty to travel around. Of course the fall is better unless you enjoy melting.
used to live in Mt Pleasant 119 Pitt st…old 2 fam house, that was destroyed by hugo….. worked for Wciv-tv and Wcbd-tv ….easy commutes. especially at 5 am.
Do native Charlestonians still say, “I’d rather be dead in Charleston than alive in Columbia or rich in Greenville?”
The quote is taken from “South Carolina” by Henry Leifermann, part of Fodor’s Compass American Guide series. It’s a must read for newcomers to the state, as well as those who’d like to know a lot more about its history.
Played baseball there in the 70’s…Wonderful people but I will pass on the summers….
it seems thats not the case here in sunnyside Queens, one day i just asked do you live around here and they all said yes….the Foodtown was walking distance…so if you don’t have to pay $86 for a monthly metrocard plus all the time commuting….its not so bad….plus most are spanish speaking, i’ve also noticed very little turnover in the last 5 years.
———————————
Miserable, rotten, jerks. And all of this for a system that allows them to fire half the people who are desperate enough to work as grocery scanners/baggers.
I don’t think you misunderstood me dj, but since this posted away from the context of the original post, I am going to point out that the “jerks” I referred to are the owners/corporate strategy analysts/management consultants of the store, not the checkout clerks.
“the “jerks” I referred to are the owners/corporate strategy analysts/management consultants of the store, not the checkout clerks.”
The engineers/programmers that create these abominations came first. Don’t forget the scorn we owe them.
Wiki “Luddites.”
Do you realize how many wheelwrights and harness makers Henry Ford forced into early retirement?
Do you realize how many wheelwrights and harness makers Henry Ford forced into early retirement? Studebaker went from making wooden wagons to cars & did well for decades. Lead, follow, or get out of the way.
Don’t blame the techies yet. Sometimes (probably often) the engineers know better and plan better, but they are overridden by the business/management types who want to push a deadline, even an artificially set deadline that has no pressing business need. I’ve seen that over and over in my career.
It especially happens when the marketing/advertising train has already left the station before the product is in the final testing phases. Then the corporate bigwigs are far too ashamed to delay a rollout just because the product doesn’t work right, so out the door it goes, and good luck to the first people using it.
HarHar! For a second there I thought you were talking about every Microsoft Office release over the past 15 years until I remembered we were discussing grocery store scanners.
Inflation In Spades…In fact, the latest report is that the combined net worth of all US households is $56 trillion, which is (as Bill Bonner here at The Daily Reckoning notes with, I assume, controlled horror) less than the $57 trillion accrued federal government’s liabilities, meaning that we are technically bankrupt.
So, with wages stagnant, prices rising dangerously, government spending out of control, Federal Reserve creation of money and credit out of control, debts of every kind at record levels, and now this? My God! And you think that we’re not freaking doomed?
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JF25Dj01.html
Just wondering, but what is the net worth of the US as a whole?
You’re comapring the net worth (assets minus debt) of individuals with the debt of the US. What about the assets?
Just wondering.
Good point. Aircraft carriers, ballistic missile subs, ICBM silos are priceless assets. NOW, if we lost those, all bets are off…
I should also add that in addition to those tangible things, there is a certain utility to having the reputation as the baddest bully on the block with the biggest stick. Hard to put a price tag on that.
We’re too big to fail. It’s different here and greed is good…God Bless America!
Don’t forget that the 56 billion net worth includes a lot of paper that is probably worthless and stocks that will soon be worth a lot less. Thus the picture is much worse than you state.
Ah, yes. Do get rid of that worthless paper and do sell your stocks. Buy gold instead. Tell everyone you know to do the same.
Shove the P/E of the S&P below ten. Shove it even lower. Put it below nine. Better yet shove it down below eight.
I’ll be patiently waiting at the bottom.
So…. we’re only 1X leveraged! We can get this baby up to 30X leveraged and be in good shape. Good enough for the fed discount window anyway:)
WBBR Bloomberg reported this morning the raised Fannie and Freddie limits from $417k have only resulted in those two GSE’s buying their own MBS’s.
Pricey toilet paper don’t you say?
It certainly does not make much sense from a lending standpoint to raise the conforming loan limits when prices are falling, does it?
The goal was to reinflate the Housing Bubble with taxpayer backed loans. Nice to see that this attempt has failed, at least for now.
That is certainly what it appeared to be when congress raised the limits.
I should have asked before, but I’d like to have an ongoing discussion about a dilemma I’m in about buying a house. It’s in a nice neighborhood and my landlords want to sell because they need $ to renovate one of their properties. I’d like this to be a discussion across bits and bucket threads because I’m in a state of suspension about what to do and could use some of HBB’s advice and ideas. Details to follow. Thank you.
If you’d like to make your landlord’s financial troubles your own, go ahead and buy. If you’d like to wait a year and see prices fall another 30 per cent or more, wait. Your choice.
Thanks for the reply. Making their problem my problem is the last thing I’d want to do, but I’m between a rock and a hard place. My kids are in an excelent chool district, and there are no good rentals available right now. The price of the house is the lowest price in the neighborhood and it’s a good house, albeit a bit small for our needs. More details to follow. Again thanks for the reply. I’ll continue the saga on bits and buckets.
excellent school…
Having an excellent school is a huge plus when you consider what you might end up with. In our area of N PHX we have many first and second year teachers in classrooms of 35+ kids. In other words total anarchy.
Regarding the house, how would you like to live there the rest of your life? If the answer is yes, then maybe its a good idea.
I don’t think it would hurt to try to make a deal so long as the owner is not in la la land as to what the place is “worth.” I’ve been where you are in a neighborhood I liked and not wanting to move. I’m more interested and serious about buying than I have been in 20 years. That doesn’t mean I’ll roll over and overpay for something but if I see something I really want and can feel reaonable about what I’m paying, I might jump.
Of course I say that now but stick the paperwork in front of me and I’d probably bolt
Thank you for the response. I feel the same way. But I hate to buy just before the real crash. Ouch!
I came close to buying the house next door to mine in SD. My neighbor first listed her home at $429,000, lowered the price to $419000 then $409000. She wasn’t getting much action because it’s on a busy road. I said it would go for under $400000. Sold for $387000
Her realtor called me and asked if I’d like to buy and said she’d lower the price for me. I said that I refused to make an offer because I didn’t want to insult her. When pressed I said IF I was going to make an offer it would be $350000. I talked to the realtor just the other day and he said that I almost bought a house. Her buyer was the only action she’d seen and if it was on the market for a couple of weeks longer she was offering it to me.
Although the place is nice, extremely well maintained and the garage is cleaner than most peoples houses, it has a couple of strong negs. I hate living on the main road and the backyard is a hair on the small side. I have a big dog and I’d like a bit more yard.
Out of curiosity, what part of San Diego? What’s the size of the house?
I’m sure you can find another rental in an excellent school district. It might not be the same school district, but you can find one.
Why buy a house when it is too small for your “needs”? Especially, when you are absolutley certain that you would be upside down on it in a few months and you would be able to buy a house that does fit your needs for less money in a little while.
This is not the right market for buying now and hoping to upgrade to something nicer in a little while.
With the foreclosure rate escalating, home sales dropping, banks a-hurting, I’d WAIT, AT LEAST ANOTHER YEAR!
Don’t forget jobs vanishing. As Ben has pointed out - at some point this will stop being about housing and start being about jobs.
I think that point will be reached this year. Fuel prices are acting as an accelerant as they siphon away those consumer dollars that have not yet vanished from the housing bust.
United axing 950 pilots - highly trained and skilled workers - still the dream job of many, many people. Meanwhile at places like my work there are workers that have to have emails printed to read them - and yet absolutely expect 35 years employment and a full pension.
Today my workplace will have its first layoffs in a generation.
“Today my workplace will have its first layoffs in a generation.”
I hope your job is safe edgewater. I remember the nervewracking lay-offs of the 80s and early 90s. I never was one of them but that didn’t stop the worry or the low moral in the work environment. Good luck!
I have several acquaintenances that are pilots. Two have some major skillsets to fall back on (and one a neurosurgeon Dad who I doubt would let him starve) but one is terrified that he really has no other skills to offer. Being in his mid to late 40s, I suppose its been difficult to remedy that situation while maintaining his schedule. I know they already refinanced their home last year. (Grimace)
Its really hard to have a dual set of skills, kept up to date, in order to have a safety net.
You know, I’ve got a neighbor that’s a United Pilot.
Yea, the one that that hired wetbacks to demo his old fence.
Yet I’m sure he expects full payment for his services.
I wonder how he’s sleeping tonight?
P.S. I’m not part of the disenfranchised, just totally sick of the hipocracy.
Mike
I agree, Bob, but if there is an urgency to secure a place, one can always negotiate a lease-option and be prepared to walk away from the option money should the price decline significantly below the original purchase price of the contract. We (ex-spouse and I) did that once. We had a lease option for a certain price. When the time came to exercise the option, we decided to walk away. Only lost a couple thou. After living in the neighborhood for about a year, we realized we wouldn’t be too comfortable there.
Does the waiting a year rule apply to most areas of the country??? People laugh at me when I say I am waiting for the market to crash here (NH). Everyone swears we are at the bottom and I will soon miss out.
It’s in a nice neighborhood and my landlords want to sell because …
The story should not be about the landlords who “want to sell”. The story should be about qualified buyers who “want to buy”, because those guys are in short supply these days.
JP, edgewaterjohn,IllinoisBob,
I agree with all your points. That’s what’s making me crazy! If there were rentals around here, I’d go for it! But there aren’t any, except no pets, no smoking apartments on very busy highways. I’d even pay a premium for a rental in a SFR like the ones that were available 2 years ago. I’ve been saying that I need a year to hang out and munch popcorn, but we’re not in Arizona, where rentals are so easy. I really hate to do it, but I sold my home in early 2005 and saved the money.
You’re in a tough position… wish I had useful advice. Let us know how it turns out in any case.
You know your position best, just be careful. Heck, I bought too five years ago. But, I made darn sure I bought the cheapest house on the block and that my carrying costs would be less than comparable rent. If at anytime you feel like you’ll be stretching - it’s probably the wrong move.
Thank you for the response. At this point, wih the tax deduction, we will be paying less than renting. Nonetheless, I still hate to throw about 70K into the garbage. Never gonna see that kind of $ again!
Unfortunately there’s no perfect answer, but there are some rules of thumb.
I’d start by answering these:
Is the price close to 120x your monthly rent?
If it’s more, are you comfortable paying the difference to live in that neighborhood?
Would you be comfortable if you bought at his price and sold at 120x rent?
Considering your downpayment and living there 5 years, would you be bringing a check to the table?
Could you afford to do that?
If your answer was yes to all of them, feel free to start negotiations to buy.
No, no no,yes, no. But this is NY metropolitan area, the area that still has jobs, not like Arizona or Florida, were they have massive apartment complexes. If I lived in Nevada, for example, moving into a SFR would be an ultra-easy, no brainer step. Unfortunately, I don’t ave that option, unless I want to uproot my family or move into an undesireable rental, and I mean apartment. Sharing with the landlord upstairs or downstairs or right on a busy highway or… you get the picture. And I’m not a rich guy either, just kept my credit score up. I pay my bills.
Are there truly no rental options? It seems that in the priciest neighborhoods, “luxury” condos and apartments are hurting for tenants.
I hate to say it, but your friendly neighborhood realtor may actually hook you up with a rental, they probably know some FBs. It may be hard to find one smart enough not to blow off your business. In my area they get the first month’s rent as commission for putting you in a rental, so no cost to you. Obviously you need to be aware of the dangers of a potential landlord’s financial situation. Not an ideal scenario, but if I were in your shoes I’d rather do that than buy.
But there are no good rentals. Believe me, I’ve checked. Plus the foreclosure market is forcing people to rent, which makes it worse. Maybe something will pop up before contract time. Please focus all your wills/intuitions/tinyvoices/wishes that a suitable rental/landlord will appear just in time like Superman and save me from possible financial suicide.
That’s actually a good suggestion. I found out my neighbor is a realtor and when she heard my situation said, “Oh, I know of a rental for that price but that’s much nicer.” And it was, but it was rented the day before.
Realtors are, dare I say it, not always the enemy.
Why not just continue to rent from said landlord while he _tries_ to sell it to someone else… Could take years!
Seriously, the fact that he wants to sell it does not mean it will sell. And he probably won’t want to keep it vacant while trying to sell it if he’s already under financial strain.
Could be a long-term rental, unless he lets it go to foreclosure.
Ask them if they’ll sell it to you through seller financing.
You give them 1 year’s rent downpayment and set the price and interest rate so that you’re mortgage payment to them remains the same as your current rent.
Personally, I’d try and jawbone the price down and interest rate up for tax purposes. Put a 3-5 year pre-payment penalty on it so they know you’re not going to immediately refinance and shaft them on the price. But don’t do it for longer because you’ll eventually want to buy a bigger place it sounds like.
You’ll still wind up paying ‘more’ than the bottom, but they’d get remodeling cash up front (down payment), keep an income stream, and you’d get to stay in the place. They’d also get to save 6% on realtor fees, and they KNOW you can handle the payments since you’ve been paying them already.
After the writers strike just about killed off Hollywood, actors are threatening to apply the coup de grâce, with a strike of their own…
If the entertainment biz leaves L.A., all that’s really left is the defense industry, in terms of jobs with good pay and bennies.
doesn’t strawberry picking pay well? i thought they were snapping up all those fancy riverside mcmansions?
how could they do it if they were not paid very well?
Writers, actors, entertainers, oh, the humanity! Even worse than going without water.
Had a long conversation with a friend of in laws at fish and game club over weekend. He’s a nice guy, retired early, fairly shrewed for a blue collar guy. I discussed RE with him and he was dumbfounded. Apparently he’s been hanging his hopes on the NARscum promise that this decline is going to all turn around very soon. His plan was to build another shack on a lot next door and sell his current shack at some insane price. After discussing the ALT-A resets coming and how they will impact everything, he wasn’t in high spirits. lmao……I referred him to a couple main stream economics blogs (sorry Ben
)
My point is there are alot of people completely detached from reality on RE. Head in the sand, plain uninformed or believing what they want to based on a NARspeak induced fantasy…. I’ll never know.
fairly shrewed for a blue collar guy
There’s that liberal elitism again. Unreal. Yeah, they cling to their guns and religion . . .
Haha, just like the elitism that says not having the right name, ethnic/religious pedigree or family background makes you less patriotic?
“You’re a Great American”
sean hannity
_______________________________________________________
“Patriotism is the last refuge for a true scoundrel”
Samuel Johnson
LOL. I didn’t see anything in exeter’s comment about patriotism. He was making the usual nanny state assumptions that someone who works with their hands rather than stealing money for a living in a suit is somehow less intelligent.
The past 7 years has been like the results of a broken mirror, and patriotism has been so used by ’ssshrubery & his minions (see faux tv & all the talking heads on radio) that it has almost no meaning, anymore.
“He was making the usual nanny state assumptions that someone who works with their hands rather than stealing money for a living in a suit is somehow less intelligent.”
Good thing there aren’t any assumptions in that statement…
seen any blue collar workers doing the perp walk for ripping off investors lately?
Being elite criminals has nothing to do with being elite, worldy and wise.
I thought we were talking about how it is just the liberals who are guilty of elitism?
And who says that, exactly - ?
Google the words ‘Obama’ and ‘patriotism’.
They just make it up as they go along.
Elitism = Patriotism
USA = 57 states
Winnie the Pooh = Secretary of State
You know, like that.
I liked the new presidential seal. He should have put an ostrich on the front of it though instead of the eagle
Gets hard to explain your own posts when they vanish into thin air…
Exeter’s not a true liberal. He comes off as a mean-spirited guy that despises big business capitalism. No assumptions, he laughed his a** off at someone he described as a nice guy. A true liberal shows compassion and caring for his fellow man, something a conservative is incapable of doing, LMAO.
txchick-
did not see the seal.
what in the name of crikey is next?
http://www.redstate.com/stories/elections/2008/obamas_latin_metaphor
TxChick–
How long did you say it was since you last voted? Does all this rah! rah! for a candidate mean you’re coming out for this one?
What next? Try this….
Black Swan Alert…
Charlie Black, McCain’s right hand man, announced in an interview in Fortune magazine that another terrorist attack on US soil would “be advantageous” for McCain’s election chances. Black is a lobbyist who has represented dictators Marcos of the Philippines and Savimbi of Angola.
If McCain’s poll numbers don’t pick up by October, find a bunker.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9d80f892-4177-11dd-9661-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
This election feels more important to me than any one in recent history. So, yes, I’m voting this time and even working on it.
Actually I was asking what fun BO was going to next pull out of his hat, but since you brought up Charlie Black :
I did hear this, and actually I do believe that a terrorist attack on our soil would help McCain, mainly because citizens would feel safer with McCain as CIC.
Now, why Charlie Black is not allowed to articulate this, I do not know, except that it may be construed as a wish that it would happen, as when HRC publicly mentioned the RFK assassination and all hell broke loose.
No one wishes for a terrorist attack on US soil, and no one wishes for the assassination of a Presidential candidate. We’ve come to a time when discourse is restricted to what the MSM decides is appropriate and politically correct. I often wonder if the MSM journalistas are doing a whole lot of projecting when they come to their preposterous conclusions.
If you believe that Charlie Black can orchestrate a WTC event in the USA, then I have a tin foil hat for you to try on.
It could be done so easily, it’s frightening…
Here’s one scenario:
Blow up 6 cars with dirty bombs @ L.A. freeway interchanges, and take away the port of L.A. in the process.
Blame it middle east terrorists, and use fear as your bully pulpit.
The religious wrong and their cackling sychopants are teamed up with the RNC doing another event to pray for a terror incident so grandpa can get a minor boost in the polls.
Good luck with that sickos.
Oh, I get it. So if something like that does happen…we did it to get Mac elected.
It’s all figured out in advance!
Does anyone else wonder why osama came up with a speech 2 days before last presidential election. Right on time won’t you say?
aladin,
yes it could be done so easily after Charlie Black telegraphed his intentions to the world - So law enforcement could draw a straight line to the perp. He’s self-abusive that way.
exeter,
your posts start to lack credibility when you resort to personal attacks on other posters. It begin to appear that you can’t make your case by addressing the substance of the issue.
From what I’ve read on the HBB, most posters can make their point without name-calling. If I may offer a suggestion, you could try to be more open-minded and accept the Diversity of Thought that this forum offers.
Exeter, the only people I know of who hope for disasters (economic depressions and worldwide plagues, for instance) identify themselves, proudly, as liberals, though most liberals I know do not hope for such things (as least they don’t express such desires).
“Good luck with that sickos” — ??? The fact that someone comes up some hypothetical hooey doesn’t mean squat. I’ve noticed over a long period that you condemn with a very, very broad brush. Your hatred of Republicans and conservatives is an enigma, so why don’t you explain it? Were you tortured in school by hunky jocks you ASSUMED were future Republicans or conservatives? Were your parents Barry Goldwater fans who beat you with sticks and locked you in the basement with piped in Anita Bryant music? Please tell us you tale of woe, so we can better understand the endless broken record.
Seriously.
In the meantime, my cat loves this song and video, so we’re going to listen and watch while awaiting your reply. Don’t rush. He can’t get enough of Leona Lewis. If too many try to watch at the same time, it may cut off.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=d08X2lN669k
Thanks.
It could be done so easily, it’s frightening…
Here’s one scenario:
Blow up 6 cars with dirty bombs @ L.A. freeway interchanges, and take away the port of L.A. in the process.
Blame it middle east terrorists, and use fear as your bully pulpit.
OH FOR GOD’S SAKES! Better yet, send the right codes to one of the US boomer subs & carpet-bomb the entire state of CA with nukes. That’ll show ‘em.
I like Obama, I just don’t like his politics.
Not quite on the same par as the WTC event. Anyone remember the SLA, Weatherman, Oklahoma City, the Unibomber, the Alanta Olympics, just to name a few?
It doesn’t have to be a tinfoil hat theory, just take a look at our own home grown terrorists. Anyone with enough hatred on the left or right can do damage to this country.
They just make it up as they go along.
Who is They?
‘Cause from where I’m sittin’, Making Up Hoohah has become a hip lifestyle choice for the GOP.
“Making Up Hoohah has become a hip lifestyle choice for the GOP”
Amen. Create hobgoblins where none exist. Which reminds me of McCains spiritual adviser “Pastor” Hagee who blames God for the holocaust. Talk about smoke, mirrors, misdirection and lying.
I think when we lift the carpet up and see all the religious cockroaches hiding underneath on January 21, 2009, it might just startle a lot of people.
“exeter,
your posts start to lack credibility when you resort to personal attacks on other posters.”
PG, you may want to scroll up and redirect your focus on the topic. I was discussing housing and the moonbat contingent turned it into another babble session.. It started in the first response to my post with the worn out, empty word LIBRULL. But show me where *I* attacked anyone.
Exeter, do you mean hobgoblins like the alleged evil Republican conspirators who blew up the World Trade Center. Or the alleged evil Republican president who personally captured, imprisoned, and tortured innocent, benevolent Muslim “freedom-fighters” in Cuba. Or the alleged evil Republican military officials hiding ETs in New Mexico and feeding them homeless people (doubtless Democrats) from Santa Fe? Those hobgoblins? Or the owners of Diebold voting machines (originally Democrats), allegedly rigging our elections, or the (invisible) Navy Seals who allegedly dynamited the levies in New Orleans (in order to drown poor people)? Those hobgoblins?
Since virtually every post you’ve made to this blog involves supposed conservative or Republican hobgoblins, your accusation appears to me to be, as usual, classic projection. Do you, by change, post as “bitterrenter” on another, less-repectable, blog?
Hey -
I gave some examples.
Where’s yours?
And do you believe that elitism is the same as patriotism?
As for the 57 states, I’ll give you that.
There’s:
continental 48
Alaska, Hawaii 2
Canada 1
Mexico 1
Puerto Rico 1
Guam 1
American Samoa 1
Washington DC 1
and last but not least
New Jersey 1
See, it all adds up!
No PG. You made the accusation but you failed to provide an example.
But show me where *I* attacked anyone.
Not nice.
(BTW I didn’t mean to offend Spike when I suggested he should try on a tinfoil hat. I am aware that we do tend to make off the cuff comments in the heat of debate.)
Again, who gets to decide what “babble” is? I’ve read many many posts here with which I happen to disagree. I don’t need to make value judgments on them. We just happen to disagree.
Can you name one person whom you know for sure prays for a terror attack? As for Hagee being McCain’s spiritual advisor: Since when? McCain is nominally Episcopalian, as main line and unobtrusive a denomination as they come.
I call BS, ex.
Who gets to decide? So the original post about housing has no bearing on the direction of the thread? Convenient amnesia? A mere mental block of the topic? Just veer off topic with empty sloganeering a’la txchick? How about commenting on the general publics perception of housing locally as the topic was intended? No? You’d rather head for the babble like a horsefly headed to the rodeo aye?
I think the BS lies squarely in the city of brotherly love.
HUG
No PG. You made the accusation but you failed to provide an example.
That post was in reply to Chicago guy. I should have put his name in there somewhere.
Who gets to decide? …(snip)… like a horsefly headed to the rodeo aye?
First of all, Txchk can speak for herself.
But I will address the post that started it all:
Hasn’t txchk mentioned that her own husband is of the liberal persuasion, unlike herself? So why do you see it as a slam? As for heading for the babble, I forgot that you never throw out gratuitous anti-GOP/conservative shots.
I promise I’ll try to be more like you next time.
How the hell did I miss all this????
To SFGirl,
I’ve actually seen the Unibombers property, minus the cabin.
Without googling it, anybody care to take a stab at where it was?
Mike
SV guy,
Was it Montana?
Okay now I have to go google it.
Million on verge on negative equity
Tuesday, 24 Jun 2008 11:46
Around one million homes are on the verge of negative equity, a leading expert warned last night.
“”Professor David Miles, managing director of Morgan Stanley Research, warned that a high number of recent home buyers on high loan-to-value mortgage deals could be facing negative equity.
“A substantial number of people will be in negative equity. If house prices fall 15 per cent, one million could be in negative, but this is not apocalyptic,” he said at the Westminster Economics Forum hosted by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
“The majority of people will just be in negative equity.”
Those most likely to face some level of negative equity were predicted to be people who had recently signed up to a high loan-to-value mortgage.
“But if you can still make monthly payments, then there is not a terrible condition. [It is not a problem] if you are not selling and the mortgage is affordable,” Professor Miles explained.
Central to difficulties in predicting where house prices will go, Professor Miles explained, was the role of house price expectations.
In part recent house price growth in the UK was attributed to high house price expectations. Expectations of falling house prices may also bring down house prices.
Professor Miles was also circumspect on suggestions house price falls and rising interest rates would lead the UK to recession.
His analysis showed in a central case, a ten per cent house price fall in 2008 and a 0.5 per cent rise in interest rates would see a one per cent fall in GDP growth, which would not be enough to bring the UK into recession.”"
Oh dear.
Leigh
http://www.myfinances.co.uk/news/mortgages/mortgage-advice/million-on-verge-on-negative-equity-1228737.htm
Based on the direction that the current Congress is acting with regard to the “poor home owners”, it would be a pretty stupid homeowner that was upside down and continued to make payments. In fact it is a pretty stupid mortgage payer to make payments at this time. The governments plans are designed to help people that default. So default.
It’s also a bad time not to buy stocks, because um, Wall Street can’t fail and only a fool would pull out of Bear Stearns. Cramer told me so!
TAF was created because the gubmint sez that the Fed is mandated to support the solvency of Investment Banks over inflation…right?
Japan got it right…lower interest rates and deny deny deny.
Now JPMorgan is ratting out its fellow banks…calling out Wells, BOA and Suntrust. Must be getting uglier, they’re turning on each other.
June 20, 2008 9:39 AM EDT
JPMorgan said among the big banks, SunTrust Banks (NYSE: STI) has the least money set aside to cover loan losses and SunTrust may be forced to sell assets or issue preferred stock.
JPMorgan also said that Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) are among lenders with the lowest reserves to cover bad loans. JPMorgan thinks these lenders may raise more money to increase reserves.
Bank of America has lower reserves compared with its peer group, and this will worsen after it buys Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC).
“…Must be getting uglier, they’re turning on each other.”
Tweedy Bird: “Bugs…if I were you… I’d get outta here fast!”
Bugs: “eh, what’s up Tweedy”
Tweedy: “Granny’s ran out of money for her meds…and she’s running around without her glasses, in multi-colored, go-in-the-dark curlers and smashing everything in sight with a very large cast iron frying pan.”
Bugs: “oh, I see…”
“Wabbit season……duck season…….wabbit season…….duck season!!!!”
LOL!
Elmer season!
Deflecting the glare of the spotlight away from themselves.
What a deal .300 billion of taxpayers funds bails out both BOA and Countrywide and God knows who else.
Usually the government/regulators let Banks with good reserves buy out ones going BK.
The local DC news stations are all abuzz over a capitol area realtors report saying prices of DC condos have risen 3%. They never qualify whether that’s month-to-month or year-to-year, but I can’t imagine it’s yearly.
I managed to sell my condo last month and move to a rental house. I had been planning on doing so for years now but kept getting delayed by work travel (I started reading Ben’s site so many years ago). I reluctantly went with my realtor’s advice on pricing and was shocked when it sold for only 10% less. That was still a good 10% above where I wanted to price it.
We actually received a call from an angry neighbor claiming that we were pricing it too low and would drop prices for the whole building. My realtor is lucky I didn’t answer that call or there might have been a duel in the decaying parking lot.
Because I bought the unit way back in 1999 I was given a hefty check at settlement. Now if there was only a reasonable place to invest the money. *sigh*
Drinks are on me!
The local DC news stations are all abuzz over a capitol area realtors report saying prices of DC condos have risen 3%
That’s undoubtedly either the median or average, which can go up while same-unit prices go down. Means squat, especially at such a low figure.
I’d say its mark-to-fantasy. My GF’s condo has lost over almost 20% since she purchased it at the height of the bubble in 06. Its in Bethesda, she loves the area but hates how the building is managed and how there has been an influx of young-ins who act like its a dorm. Significant turn over in just a couple of years to include a foreclosure right next door. It was a conversion from rental apartments but the buyers who could not flip now rent them out w/ negative cash flow. She want’s to sell but cringes at losing every dime she put down, but will have to do something soon as she got a 7% 5 year I/O ARM. Even the lower payments during the 5 year I/O phase if she rented it she’d have negative cash flow. Her only hope is a gov’t bailout + BRAC creating local demand that drives up rent/sales prices. She makes too much to get any assistance, and spends too much to prepare for her day of reckoning. I am working on her to prep for that day but so far I’ve had only limited success.
I cannot imagine BRAC is going to help housing in… Bethesda. It seems too far from any of the big new spots, especially given the traffic. Am I missing something?
Oh also, regarding this:
The local DC news stations are all abuzz over a capitol area realtors report saying prices of DC condos have risen 3%
I haven’t watched enough TV to see this particular report, but last time this happened (a month ago, perhaps), it was just a month-on-month rise that they were cheering, NOT year-on-year. Year-on-year was terrible.
That was crap statistics-reading because you always expect a big rise from March to April anyway, or perhaps in today’s case April to May. A mere 3% up from abysmal numbers of the previous springtime “boom” month is… even more abysmal.
No, no - BRAC will save us all.
Maryland will be getting a zillion new people from BRAC, and all of them will gladly shell out $350,000 for a small condo, $400,000 to $500,000 for a townhouse, or $600,000 plus for a McMansion in the “nice” parts of Maryland.
Yes, indeed - price no longer matters! Hahahaha!
I forgot to mention that my landlord has informed me that their teaser rate will be expiring, coinciding with the end of my lease. They’re expecting me to stomach a couple hundred extra per month but assure me that they’d still be losing money. I’ll probably be looking for a new place when this lease expires.
It’s damn hard to escape this bubble.
i hope some of you are watching CNBC right now. 4 realtor schills saying how its time to buy now….miami is great investment
That’s all those clowns are programed to say. I know a fellow in Ft. Lauderdale that told me last year the bottom was in and next stop the moon. I recommended that he buy all he could leverage himself into, haven’t heard back from him yet on how the moon shot is working out!
I’ve been following the Ocean Pearl condos in Pompano Beach for close to 2 years now waiting for a price drop. Hasn’t happened.
http://www.bestofluxuryrealty.com/fort_lauderdale_luxury_communities/Pompano_Beach/Ocean_Pearl/comm_real_estate_property__297675.html
Hey txchick, if they start drilling for oil off the Florida coast…you might wind up living in a… “Black & Blue State”
Can you handle the truth?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/24/opinion/24brooks.html?hp
“…to bear witness to the truth; and all who are on the side of truth listen to my voice”, to which Pilate famously replied, “What is truth?”"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pontius_Pilate
“I want the truth!”
“You can’t handle the truth”
TX:
Good read. Thanks for posting… let the mc-chimpy/shrub comments ensue.
Who cares? What is $4B a month buying us? Stupid, stupid war.
You don’t want to pay for schools here, fine. But why pay to blow up and rebuild schools there? I’ll never get it, I guess.
Brooks is an effete and impudent elitist — but at least the man can write well.
(I still don’t buy the argument, but thanks for tryin’.)
It might not be a bad idea since China has been drilling there for about 2 years now!!
http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/09/news/economy/oil_cuba/index.htm
The picture caption says: China & India
Why those rascally hindu communists, I bet they are standing on the oil rigs slapping themselves on the back while smoking Cuban cigars & drinking Jamaican rum.
Methinks that if Jeb Shrub isn’t on the GOP ticket in 2012, he’ll be an “investor” on a “no-bid”, “business exempt” ferry boat company speeding “Kentucy Horse owning” folks to a “Carlyle Group” casino in Havana. Man, those looney toon plots are just a rattlin’ around in my brain.
I’ve been following several foreclosures in my neighborhood…and yes I rent in a socio-economic challenged area. Most are offered at 30-60% of bubble prices. One sold recently for $135K, down from $271K in 9/2005. Others are still sitting there month after month with no buyers in sight. Bad neighborhoods, high unemployment, high taxes and high insurance. Most of those houses are probably worth NOTHING since taxes and insurance exceed potential rental income. Sure you can rent a house for $1400/month. Taxes and insurance combined would probably run around $800 - $1000/month. But the house is in the hood, good luck collecting your rent from the crack head that lives there.
Definitely don’t buy unless you really must! Next year will surely be cheaper!
I missed the four realtors Tom Thumb but I am enjoying Erin Burnett and Larry Kudlow knocking heads on the same channel.
Bernanke Plays ‘Dangerous Game’ Balancing Rate Talk With Action
June 24 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, by voicing concern about inflation and the slumping dollar, has fanned investor expectations for an interest-rate increase as soon as August. He may regret it.
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t?
If he pretends he is going to tighten, then doesn’t, won’t that naturally fuel a bull run on Wall Street, as bovines live for highly stimulative negative real interest rates?
Not this time, I don’t think. If Bernanke doesn’t raise rates as expected, we’ll see a huge spike in commodities (taking money out of the equity markets). Furthermore, the rise in commodity prices will trigger a round of revised profit forecasts on account of higher costs and lower demand. That will continue to cause pressure on US equities.
Is there really an expectation that they will raise rates soon? I thought it was conventional wisdom (for what that is worth) that they would be holding rates where they are through the election?
things are set up for one. p&f close to low risk buy territory, usual gloom and doom everywhere, etc. Looking for index calls
FBI promises more fraud arrests
Business Correspondent, BBC News, Washington DC
The US Justice Department says the frauds have cost victims $1bn
A senior FBI officer has told the BBC that more arrests will be made as part of its probe into mortgage fraud and the credit crunch.
Section chief for Financial Crimes, Sharon Ormsby, said hundreds of arrests already made were just a “good start”.
More than 400 US real estate brokers have been arrested and charged with fraud in the past few months.
“We’ve initiated investigations into 19 corporations. We are precluded from talking about them. But we are looking at individuals related to mortgage lenders, investment firms, brokerage houses, hedge funds, due diligence firms, rating agencies - the whole gamut.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7470381.stm
I can’t settle on a title:
Do you… “trust” these folks… or …Do you… have a choice?
“Risk referred to ICE’s “leadership role” that was highlighted during the U.S. hurricane season, noting that despite disruptions to some markets,”
(Here’s the part I like, believing as I do… that “they” always consider the weak, the poor, the suffering…first.)
“ICE took a lead role, partnering with others, in developing a method to price and settle daily natural gas swing swaps.”
(It walks like Enwrong, it talks like Enwrong, It smells like Enwrong)
“Risk credits ICE for other areas of focus as well. “ICE also wins plaudits for its commitment to price transparency and product development,” the article states.”
“Risk editors said that the winning institutions are those that have best responded to the needs of their clients over the past year. In making the final decision, the panel considered a number of factors, including innovation, infrastructure, organization, risk management, quality of post- sales service and customer feedback.”
Maybe George Carlin was on to something when he says: ““THEY” … Don’t give a f#(k about…YOU!”
ICE Named 2005 Derivatives Exchange of the Year by Risk Magazine:
http://ice.client.shareholder.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=237401
PS, I woke up early this morning from a dream, I was self-arguing about why wall street had used a super computer to calculate & model: the location, the duration, & the size of hail…they then went on to compare this model with the another model: the location, the shape type, & the duration of a rainbow… all I can remember was that “they” all seemed quite pleased with the results.
What the he!! was I drinking last night?
Whatever it was, don’t bogart it! Pass it around.
Sorry if this is a dupe.
Brokers threatened by run on shadow bank system
Regulators eye $10 trillion market that boomed outside traditional banking
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — A network of lenders, brokers and opaque financing vehicles outside traditional banking that ballooned during the bull market now is under siege as regulators threaten a crackdown on the so-called shadow banking system.
Big brokerage firms like Goldman Sachs (GS:Goldman Sachs Group, Inc MER 34.54, -1.41, -3.9%) , which some say are the biggest players in this non-bank financial network, may have the most to lose from stricter regulation.
The shadow banking system grew rapidly during the past decade, accumulating more than $10 trillion in assets by early 2007. That made it roughly the same size as the traditional banking system, according to the Federal Reserve.
While this system became a huge and vital source of money to fuel the U.S. economy, the subprime mortgage crisis and ensuing credit crunch exposed a major flaw. Unlike regulated banks, which can borrow directly from the government and have federally insured customer deposits, the shadow system didn’t have reliable access to short-term borrowing during times of stress.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/big-brokers-threatened-crackdown-shadow/story.aspx?guid=%7BFA23DF5A-918F-41DA-B794-7E553ADAFAA7%7D
Victims of Cut Rate Loans. Hilarious.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/victims_of_cutrate_loans.html
Good news for SKF people: They just keep chopping heads
skf has broken out above a significant resistance point. but I doubt it will hold.
If you are wrong, then the beers are on me. Otherwise, help a poor brother out and buy me a beer.
OK, maybe not that poor. SKF been berry berry goodtome over the past months. But I have no pride and happily take beer when offered.
I remember reading someone here saying that the skf long game was over when it was 100
I vaguely remember you took a position when it recently hit in the low 90s. I know you’re a committment-o-phobe, but please tell me you held.
hell no. I don’t hold anything
It’s gone up what, 52 points from there? I’ve probably gotten 44-46 of those just jumping in and out.
of course the tax man will get a lot of that
Then you definitely are buying the first beer.
lol, it just keeps getting better. LEH downgraded WAMU. Soon, they’ll be slitting each other’s throats without provocation.
All I got from SKF was a few singed fingers, so send a few of those beers my way, thankyouverymuch.
Friends of Chris and Kent
By Rich Lowry
It’s not easy being a U.S. senator. People trick you into taking special favors you didn’t even know existed. Shame on these unscrupulous people!
Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd and North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad, both Democrats, fell victim to the machinations of Countrywide Financial, which gave them breaks on mortgages as part of the “Friends of Angelo” program; the “Angelo” in question is Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo.
…
But Conrad got off easy, considering the misfortune of his colleague Dodd.
The Connecticut senator has been saddled with favors that may save him as much as $75,000 on his mortgages. Dodd says he knew he was part of a VIP program, but figured it was nothing unusual — who in the senate is not “very important”? Dodd can be forgiven his lack of curiosity given that he’s very busy as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee and can’t be bothered with questions of who might be trying to influence him with which particular favors.
To his credit, Dodd holds no grudges. Even though Countrywide so badly served him by shaving points off his loans, he is honchoing a $300 billion mortgage bail-out bill that will benefit Countrywide by allowing it to unload its worst loans onto the federal government. When duty calls, Dodd answers.
Bank of America is on the verge of buying Countrywide, and an internal Bank of America “discussion document” from a few months ago happens to coincide with the bailout provisions of Dodd’s bill. According to the Washington Examiner newspaper, Bank of America’s PAC has given Dodd $20,000 since he became chairman of the Banking Committee last year, and Bank of America employees have given him $50,000. This can only be described as a string of very bad luck for Dodd, who — given his selfless gullibility — probably figures everyone is showered with donations from the financial industry.
RE: The Connecticut senator has been saddled with favors that may save him as much as $75,000 on his mortgages.
Sell out your integrity and ethics for a crummy $75k.
Worthless POS.
Rescap going down, may need more money.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a6SMjLqT9mzw&refer=home
“ResCap presents a very significant risk,” said Mark Wasden, the lead GMAC analyst at Moody’s. “There is no easy exit from their difficulties right now. We think the company will yet again find itself in need of additional cash.”
“Credit-default swap prices give ResCap a 100 percent chance of default within the next five years, based on a JPMorgan model. It was 98 percent before the debt agreement was announced.”
What happens when there is no more additional cash?
Dubai is aspiring to be the next Wall Street. How healthy is it for the global economy to have oil, finance, and unrelenting religious strife all located in the same corner of the world?
Japan was aspiring to be the next global economic superpower circa 1990 when the last global financial bust started playing out. This time will be no different, IMHO — the country that appears poised to conquer all will fade with the unraveling of the bubble which brought them to the fore.
Ooooh, Professor! You’re starting to make predictions, and they even seem to be good ones.
That one is a no-brainer.
You must be related to Hari Seldon
Hmmm,.. probably I should have made that comment, considering my handle…. “Stars End.”
How close is Dubai to Sudan?
As goes Dubai…so goes the Chinese, or something like that.
One stop stalking
“Middle East Peace” …will be the lasting “hallmark” of the Cheney-Shrub Legacy. imho
Common misunderstanding. They never wanted “Middle East Peace.” Rather, they yearned for their “Middle East Piece.”
I’ve become an “official member”: “Dump the Pump”
“Hi, I’m Shrub…I’ve cut back x2 gallons of gasoline per week …& so has my brother Jeb, … we’ve joined with Al Bore in a brotherhood of solidarity to help out our fellow Americans citizens”
200 million Americans (– x2 gallons) * (52) = 19.2 Billion gallons less consumption per year…means demand goes down…prices go up, therefore, gasoline would be apprx @ 12.39 per gallon (+ / - 78 cents)
You think ICE will even look at my resume?
“In written testimony prepared for the hearing, the chairman of ICE Futures Europe, owned by IntercontinentialExchange Inc., …saying it would “drive business either to futures markets in other jurisdictions where there are no such constraints, or to off-exchange [over-the-counter] marketplaces where clearing is not available.”
Why do I read that statement as: “If you deny us the ability to f#(k you here in London…we’ll just go to Moscow”
Oil Speculation Draws Scrutiny:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121426978977398795.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Associated Press
Ahead of the Bell: Home Price Index
Associated Press 06.24.08, 6:10 AM ET
WASHINGTON -
A closely watched reading of U.S. home prices will provide an indication of how far the housing market slipped in April as investors and homeowners try to figure out when the market will hit bottom.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller report on home prices is due at 9 a.m. EDT Tuesday. The Case-Shiller index, which focuses on major U.S. cities, has shown falling prices since fall 2006.
Home prices, as measured by the Case-Shiller index of 20 major U.S. cities, fell 14.4 percent in March from a year earlier, a record decline. The Case-Shiller index of 10 major cities fell by 15.3 percent, also a record.
BULLETIN
U.S. HOME PRICES DOWN 15.3% IN PAST YEAR: S&P/CASE-SHILLER
Home prices fall 15.3% in past year, Case-Shiller says
By Rex Nutting
Last update: 9:10 a.m. EDT June 24, 2008
Faster home price declines are good for U.S. Treasurys.
BULLETIN
U.S. HOME PRICES DOWN 15.3% IN PAST YEAR: S&P/CASE-SHILLER
Treasurys hold gains after home prices fall faster
By Deborah Levine
Last update: 9:11 a.m. EDT June 24, 2008
Don’t miss the comments to this story. Seems lots of folks are wearing tinfoil hats these days — plenty of blathering about PPT intervention and such.
latest news
U.S. June consumer confidence 50.4 vs 58.1 in May
ECONOMIC REPORT
Four years of gains in home prices wiped out
Case-Shiller: Prices fall in all 20 cities in past year; slimmer OFHEO decline
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:24 a.m. EDT June 24, 2008
Comments: 144
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Home prices across 20 major U.S. cities have dropped a record 15.3% in the past year and are now back to where they were in the summer of 2004, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor’s.
well according to NPR news home prices were down 15.3% but the good news is that expert believe recovery is around the corner and 8 big cities has increase in home prices.
anyone knows which cities they are talking about or is just hot air
GMAC on the brink, Dow futures down 51, wonder what it will look like after the “Walk of Destruction” today?
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a6SMjLqT9mzw&refer=home
When you’re out walking…those guys that look like poorly dressed “Blues Brothers” in sunglasses…they are from the “Shadow Gov’t”
Credit-default swap prices give ResCap a 100 percent chance of default within the next five years, based on a JPMorgan model. It was 98 percent before the debt agreement was announced.
Wow.
I think your walk fortunes are about to reverse. Futures down before open = rally monkey time. Welcome to bizarro world.
$5 banked on skf on two trades. all short
nosebleed time on that
It’s up on the day…..so how’d you short for $5 ??
Timing is everything.
short silly premarket gap . . . . cover at the open on selloff
enter again short, cover again
it’s been jumping all over the place.
I’m guessing it also helps when one is a day trading Jedi Knight.
or running on 5 diet cokes with ADD
And aspartame is thought by some to be an ADD amplifier. So that’s your secret. Interesting.
Oh no! I ordered the Cooper course but I have to cut down on caffeine.
So much for my new career.
you’ll do fine. I’d be insanely wealthy if I’d held all the nobrainers I have gotten over the years instead of flipping and flopping
‘And aspartame is thought by some to be an ADD amplifier.’
That’s interesting. I didn’t know that. I do know that I drink lots of coffee, but almost never drink soda. I don’t like the taste much, and also soda makes me vibrate in this dimension to the point that I have blurry edges. Maybe I’ll skip the Ritalin and do a controlled test, drinking soda with aspartame vs. soda with just plain old fructose and see if one makes me blurryedged and one doesn’t. Scientific inquiry is my middle name, you know. Along with ‘Ann’. Gosh, what stupid middle names.
My powers can overcome the evildoers… See? I felt a might strain during my ambulation, now I see that I have won…
(This stuff cracks me up…)
Wall Street : Turning Left
Main Street: Turning Right
No place for fence sitters.
Your walks don’t have their usual effect on FOMC meeting days.
“June 23 (Bloomberg) — The 300 bankers gathered at New York’s Waldorf-Astoria Hotel last month faced a stark choice: Accept Sam Ramsey’s plea to restructure $60 billion of GMAC LLC’s debt or risk pushing the lending arm of General Motors Corp., the largest U.S. automaker, to the brink of insolvency.”
Next month’s meeting will be held at the Stockton CA Motel 6.
You just gotta LOVE our public officials… Especially the Northeast variety.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a6oSRX5gsE48&refer=home
Big job cuts in the financials coming.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9D9UjMULF4o&refer=home
Gloomster alert…
Report: Financial lay-offs could be worst since tech bust
By Riley McDermid
Last update: 8:45 a.m. EDT June 24, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Financial firms may lose as many as 175,000 jobs in the next 12 months, a reduction that could exceed even the worst layoffs after the tech boom imploded in 2000 to 2003, a news report said Tuesday. “The worst is yet to come,” Russ Gerson, head of New York-based recruiting firm Gerson Group, told Bloomberg News. “We are going to have a major contraction. This is affecting all areas of the investment banking universe and it’s affecting all areas globally.”
PB, gets “Eyeore” trophy of the day!
It amazes me what a bunch of gloomsters these MSM commentators are anymore.
I’ve been kicking an idea around that maybe the chart of the s&p can predict the election. That assumes that there would be a big selloff from November to year end should the messiah win; i.e. people taking profits from a 5 year bull market knowing that capital gains will go up a lot next year.
“…from November to year end”
McSame or Obama?
Either…Or?
“I still see debt people…some driving in a lexus”
there is only one messiah who wants to soak the “rich”
Yes, it will pain those who have become “over-saturated” swimming too long in the “Pool of Liquidity”
Too bad they both want to soak ‘the future’.
When will we get an actual candidate worth voting for? Somebody who’s fiscally conservative and socially progressive.
Let everybody be whatever they want, marry who they want, and say what they want. But let them pay for it themselves.
Cut SS/Medicaid/Gov Pensions/Military/Welfare/etc. to the bone, get us in a REAL surplus situation and keep us there while we start eating through our debt, and quit stripping personal freedom because of ‘terrorists’.
You are of course referring to the business of making revenue adjustments as socially equitable as possible. If there is a better plan then it might get adopted, but given the debts that need to be paid for nearly a decade of statist bumbling, this is about as good as it gets. Clinging to traditions of faith and gun ownership is straight talk that no one should be embarrased about on either side or the middle, but “messiah” and “soak” as used above are both made up smears not based on real evidence whether policy proposals or stump speeches. In talking about a “candidate” who proposes “adjustments” such word games are hyperbole.
If you read this, Mole Man, thank you.
Wifes best friend just got the axe when Wachovia’s structured finance group chopped major heads. Looks like banks are gonna start having to make money the old fashioned way….raising interest rates.
And running a close 2nd:
Greenspan says U.S. economy on brink of recession
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080624/safrica_greenspan.html
And last but not least…in 3rd place:
Consumer confidence tumbles in June
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080624/usa_economy_confidence.html
Calling Abbey Cohen, ….Emergency! Emergency!
Oil trading near $138 a barrel. Here we go again.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/oil-futures-gain-trade-near/story.aspx?guid=%7B49DFC39A%2DC112%2D4806%2D924C%2D8F598BF7E531%7D&dist=hplatest
Everyone wants to be a commodities trader.
not me. I started that way and it scares the hell out me
ha. 2 bux banked again on skf. hope nobody here was the one I shorted to
Nope. I’m afraid of heights.
I don’t go anywhere near that puppy anymore.
puts could be an interesting little gamble if they are not too expensive (have never looked)
I went long on 15, will ride the lows until around 6 and re-enter the market when I need more gas.
You’re talking over my head, lad…what’re you referring to??
he’s making his own market in Maui Wowie
Blano…
I was talking about filling up my car, yesterday.
I looked into it the other day. At the money July put was running about $10-$12. I backed away. The moves in the underlying alone tend to make me reach for the Dramamine.
for me it brings back the glory days of flipping YHOO, NSOL, RNWK, etc. You just grab the 2-3 bucks and let the rest of the herd battle over the ideological stuff underlying all of it
Actually, I think the average Joe putting money in commodities just wants to protect the purchasing power of his “dollars”. People realize that unlike fed notes or stock certificates, barrels of oil cannot be created out of thin air. Unlike stocks or suburban McMansions, we all need oil to live, and it provides a true benefit (1 gallon of gas = 500 hours of manual labor).
1968: 1 troy oz of Gold buys around 125 gallons of gas.
2008: 1 troy ounce of Gold buys around 175 gallons of gas.
Gold is obviously in a bubble, especially in light of the oil bubble.
1938: 1 troy oz of Gold buys around 150 gallons of gas.
That’s one long bubble…
Investing with a Vedic approach…
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ten-rules-investor-optimism-based/story.aspx?guid=%7B217F5E73%2DA39E%2D44D3%2DA847%2D5EB73D32F198%7D
Just out - U.S. Home prices down over 15% this year.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B515DBAA5%2D2119%2D4566%2DB7AB%2DC8A08F66B18A%7D
don’t tell the realtor in Sarasota who’s selling to those imaginary baby boomers who don’t care about taxes or insurance
“We want more Iranians visiting the United States. … We are determined to reach out to the Iranian people.”
“Rice is intrigued by the idea and has asked for an analysis of its feasibility and implications, the officials said.”
Retitle:
“Condi helps boost approval rating of Cheney-Shrub Administration in last days”
or
“Cheney offers chit chats before Nuclear spanking”
US may open diplomatic outpost in Iran:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080623/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_iran
“US may open diplomatic outpost in Iran”
Oh my word!!! They’re negotiating with turrrrrrrists!!!!! Call the cops! Ring the bell!
Somebody has to call in the airstrikes.
And hurry!!! Bomb those negotiators!
Home prices down 15.3%.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/watch-fed-says/story.aspx?guid=%7B945152FB%2D76F6%2D45B9%2D9652%2DEB8BA4C05002%7D
Bond insurers trying to unwind $125 Billion in contracts. Good luck with that…
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bond-insurers-seek-cut-125/story.aspx?guid=%7B188D67D1%2DE38C%2D4665%2DAA73%2DCB451653AEAF%7D
The Return of Inflation?
By Robert J. Samuelson
“…Still, all large inflations involve “too much money chasing too few goods,” as economist Milton Friedman often noted, and this episode is no exception. The Fed’s easy-money policies have global effects. Many countries peg their currencies to the dollar — formally or informally — and shadow Fed policies. Meanwhile, oil producers and other commodity exporters have been flooded with dollars; in practice, the extra cash allows them to run easy-money policies. The result is that despite the U.S. slowdown, much of the world is booming. Developing countries, now about half the global economy, have been growing at about 7 percent since 2002. Higher inflation is a worldwide phenomenon. In China and India, it’s about 8 percent. In Russia, it’s 15 percent….”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/23/AR2008062301830.html
Sorry link to Washington Post
I wonder if Bin Laden is in a cave somewhere, laughing about how he caused the price of oil to go from $25 a barrel, to almost $140 a barrel, a much bigger attack on America in the scheme of things, than 9/11.
fleckenstein
When will the market face reality?
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/WhenWillTheMarketFaceReality.aspx
We’ve talked here about failed McMansion developments being turned into newfangled nursing and group homes for the aged, disabled, addicted, etc. Ie. people for whom the length of a commute or trip to the store is not an issue, because they do neither.
Here is a non-profit with the same idea.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121426696618898605.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_page_one
“In the spring of 2001, Bill Thomas, dressed in his usual sweat shirt and Birkenstock sandals, entered the buttoned-down halls of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. His message: Nursing homes need to be taken out of business. “It’s time to turn out the lights,” he declared.”
“Cautious but intrigued, foundation executives handed Dr. Thomas a modest $300,000 grant several months later. Now the country’s fourth-largest philanthropy is throwing its considerable weight behind the 48-year-old physician’s vision of “Green Houses,” an eight-year-old movement to replace large nursing homes with small, homelike facilities for 10 to 12 residents.”
Of course they’ll have to tax us up the booty if they get rid of the nursing home economies of scale. Except that if they have a whole McMansion development, with each house having 10 to 12, they get the economies of scale back.
Ranch houses would have been better, instead of all these fugly two-stories, splits and trilevels they’ve been building. Useless!
call bids hit. 1275 is the next buy area
Whatcha think?
THE TECHNICAL INDICATOR
Head and shoulders top forming on the Dow?
Focus: Oil services, SLB, NOV, OIH, FLR, CMC, ENS, SRS, SPN, SNG
By Michael Ashbaugh, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:34 a.m. EDT June 24, 2008
I think he’s a little late to the party
Yep, back from the walk, down 100. It’s humbling to possess such great power but I’ll try to remain level headed…
Filed under: Don’t upset “The Markets”
“Full story” to follow after 4pm EST
Suicide mars Sarkozy trip to Israel:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080624/ap_on_re_mi_ea/israel_sarkozy
You walk… we blame
“The speculative fever that swept through the ranks of home buyers was quite astonishing,” says Jason Trennert, co-founder of Strategas, a market-analysis firm. “Everyone wanted to cash in on what they saw as a one-way ticket to riches by buying real estate.”
Wall Street: “Hey guys, let’s get “main streeters” to behave like us!
How?
Wall Street: “All they need is a little “leverage” say… 0% down at 2.3% adjustable in 90 days, well what you think?”"
Well, I don’t know…sounds a little “risky” to me.
Wall Street: “No worries silly, …we’ll slice it, we’ll dice it, into itsy bitsy tiny little pieces and pass it freely around at the next G20 cocktail party. They’ll be seeing things they only dreamed of by the end of the night.”
The Blame Game:
http://biz.yahoo.com/portfolio/080624/dcra3a5db5b9fb57d758a0f90ee15eb8125.html
If the risk was spread out into all these itsy bitsy tiny little pieces ,than why the problem. Wouldn’t there only be itsy bitsy tiny little losses spread out to many as the theory of spreading out the risk goes .Or were big pieces of itsy bitsy tiny pieces sold ,adding back the risk ?
In other words ,didn’t Wall Street take away the concept of the spreading out of risk by MBS and CDO’s by selling to much to one fund at a time? In other words ,shouldn’t the sellers of these securities have limits on how much could be sold to one entity ? If you have a concept ,than stay true to the concept .
You have to take up jogging. This walking business is killing off the stock market wealth effect.
Case Shiller Data Apologies if the formatting is off - I’m trying something new. Once again, the winner is Detroit - at levels not seen since April 1999!
Location - Current - 12-Months Ago - Last Seen - Percent Decline
Phoenix - AZ - 161.33 - 213.94 - February-05 - 24.6%
Los Angeles - 202.52 - 263.19 - May-04 - 23.1%
San Diego - 180.57 - 231.8 - October-03 - 22.1%
San Francisco - 164.63 - 210.89 - March-04 - 21.9%
Denver - 128.49 - 136.32 - April-04 - 5.7%
Washington - 201.21 - 235.37 - October-04 - 14.5%
Miami - 200.42 - 269.52 - November-04 - 25.6%
Tampa - FL - 178.5 - 222.06 - January-05 - 19.6%
Atlanta - GA - 124.19 - 135.04 - January-05 - 8.0%
Chicago - 150.44 - 165.68 - January-05 - 9.2%
Boston - 158.68 - 170.95 - January-04 - 7.2%
Detroit - MI - 93.79 - 111.89 - April-99 - 16.2%
Minneapolis - MN - 139.19 - 164.41 - March-03 - 15.3%
Charlotte - NC - 131.82 - 133.42 - April-07 - 1.2%
Las Vegas - 165.89 - 224.79 - March-04 - 26.2%
New York - 193.93 - 210.49 - March-05 - 7.9%
Cleveland - OH - 109.55 - 118.42 - June-02 - 7.5%
Portland - OR - 174.87 - 185.21 - April-06 - 5.6%
Dallas - TX - 120.41 - 125.47 - July-05 - 4.0%
Seattle - WA - 179.57 - 190.68 - June-06 - 5.8%
Composite - 183.15 - 218.33 - July-04 - 16.1%
Composite-20 - 169.85 - 200.1 - August-04 - 15.1%
And percents off peak…
Location - Off Peak
Phoenix - AZ - 29.1%
Los Angeles - 26.1%
San Diego - 27.9%
San Francisco - 24.6%
Denver - 8.4%
Washington - 19.9%
Miami - 28.6%
Tampa - FL - 25.0%
Atlanta - GA - 9.0%
Chicago - 10.8%
Boston - 13.0%
Detroit - MI - 26.2%
Minneapolis - MN - 18.7%
Charlotte - NC - 3.0%
Las Vegas - 29.3%
New York - 10.1%
Cleveland - OH - 11.3%
Portland - OR - 6.2%
Dallas - TX - 4.8%
Seattle - WA - 6.6%
Composite - 19.1%
Composite-20 - 17.8%
It’s a great time to buy. Look at all of those discounts.
ok, picked up skf 135.88 will stop at 134
I think we could see retest of the lows this afternoon
also entering a few more call bids down there
see the slightly irregular inverse h&s on the SPY 5 min chart its at the neckline right now
I just closed out a second 2-hour round trip on NDX july 1950 calls. Averaged in at 28.75. Out at 35.2. Good times.
And you lost me on the SPY analysis. Maybe I should start drinking diet coke instead of coffee.
dropping stop back to 133.44
Waffle dude: you could never have gotten these moves in options from 2004 - mid year last year. Remember the “income” funds which did nothing but sell option premium?
Yep. Everyone is an options trader these days. More sheep to fleece.
Out of the money calls with an expiry date less than a month out and on an index with severe ADD and the option price is moving in near lock step with every hiccup in the underlying. The way it’s been behaving, you could almost get away with opening a small number of contracts in each direction and then set up bracketing matched buy and sell limit orders for both the puts and the calls. Wind up, let it go, check back at the end of the day to close out the starting positions and count your money.
Wow — the whole country is on sale. There has never been a better time to invest in real estate!
It’s almost like they’re giving it away!
Everybody is a winner!
The Blame Game
It’s a classic Wall Street “whodunit,” complete with a collection of greedy investment bankers, slow-witted policymakers and numbskull Florida home buyers. But with so many suspects, how will Americans ever figure out who killed the once-vibrant and cheery U.S. economy?
http://biz.yahoo.com/portfolio/080624/dcra3a5db5b9fb57d758a0f90ee15eb8125.html
Comic relief from the Gloom and Doom:
http://www.telerate.com/article/newsOne/idUSKUA04469620080620
Woman sues Victoria’s Secret claiming thong injury
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - A woman who says she was hurt by her thong panties when a metal clip flew off and hit her in the eye has sued Victoria’s Secret, saying in a TV interview on Thursday that the injury caused her “excruciating pain.”
Some people just aren’t happy unless they’re creating drama in their lives.
I saw that story. Did you look at the woman who is doing the suing? Good heavens, in a thong?!
It was probably a Freudian thingie, where her hand ’slipped’, in a vain subconscious attempt to blind herself with a flying panty ornament, so that her brain wouldn’t have to behold what was in the mirror.
Alas, she only got one eye, and it recovered.
Friend`s of Angelo or a the U.S. Senate are holding a vote on their housing bill on Cspan2
For some reason, These stocks’ prices began a massive rally about the time when the housing rescue measure passed a key test vote.
no. it began a massive rally when bkx hit 60 (10 year low) and a big buyer of ES came into the market
ES = ?
s&p futs. e-mini
sticking that stop back in now at 134.20
screw it. took the $1.30. So that’s $6 out of the move today. Considering it’s been about $14 up and down, that stinks. call bids still in
Dow Chemical to Raise Prices(again) an Extra 25% in July
June 24 (Bloomberg) — Dow Chemical Co., the largest U.S. chemical maker, will raise prices on its products by as much as an additional 25 percent in July to make up for surging energy costs.
Freight surcharges of $300 per truck shipment and $600 per rail shipment will become effective Aug. 1, Midland, Michigan- based Dow said today in a statement.
Chief Executive Officer Andrew Liveris last month raised prices for June by 20 percent, the biggest boost in the company’s 111-year history, because of surging costs to make Styrofoam, pesticides and plastics. The additional increases were needed because of a “relentless” rise in the cost of energy and hydrocarbon materials, Dow said.
“The staggering increase in our costs over the past few months have forced us to take these further measures in order to restore our margins,” Liveris said in the statement.
Dow rose 4 cents to $37.62 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have declined 4.6 percent this year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=an0DeLaDKnhM&refer=home
Where art thou, deflation?
The last refuge of fiatsco-hoarding deflationistas seems to be on this blog. Their rallying cry; ‘any day now…’ I admit I prefer the deflationistas to the neocon political blather; lesser of two evils?
Those increases are JUST to cover the extra energy cost. It does not translate into profits for the company, or raises for the employees. They can keep raising the prices all they want, but just as in housing, eventually nobody will be able to buy.
uhhh, I disagree.
oil is food. Chemicals are fundamentals going forward. Unless the future looks more like the past.
Which is why I am long non-edible commodities. Funda-metals.
U.S.-Backed Mortgage
Program Fuels Risks
Mortgages that allow consumers to put little if any money down when buying a home have largely disappeared as a financing option available from private lenders. But they are still available — and growing more popular — through a government-backed program.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121426681678998589.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news
“My wife and I are hardworking people, but to come up with five or six grand, that’s next to impossible,” he said.
Then you shouldn’t be buying a house.
Thank you sir may I have another.
I am the most ignorant, stupid person in the world, however I thought that it was obvious that the market should go up with all the bad news. Are the investors understanding how bad things are?
I am not in this stock market. I am all cash/S-T-Tbills. What is going on here? This stock market and the parties that are keeping this market are insane!
I am can only conclude one of two reasons, the parties pumping money into this market are brain dead/opm or they are so afraid that they are willing to throw away billions to protect trillions of dollars.
So which is it?
Sorry, if this is a repeat, but I got to know-
I am the most ignorant, stupid sun of a B**** person in the world, however I thought that it was obvious that the market should go down with all the bad news. Are the investors understanding how bad things are or are they blind?
I am not in this stock market. I am all cash/S-T-Tbills. What is going on here? This stock market and the parties that are keeping this market up
appear to be insane!
I am can only conclude one of two reasons for a non smart person, the parties pumping money into this market are either brain dead/opm or they are so afraid that they are willing to throw away billions to protect trillions of dollars.
So which is it?
I am looking foreward to someone’s response, anyone’s response for an explanation.
I AM CONFUSED!
Lostcontrol:
I am not confused, but my throat is back to hurting again. It hurts when I cut off my feelings instead of accepting the truth.
Ouro Verde’s clenched neck and jaw index is way up today.
Truth is scarier than fiction.
1. There is an election coming up in November.
2. Go back and read number one.
Much of our thought processes are based upon things we’ve experienced in the past, and what’s coming isn’t unprecedented if you follow financial history back aways…
in the late 1700’s we printed currency without any backing, and the phrase “Not worth a Continental” was coined.
The Confederacy issued tons of cash without anything to back it up, and after the Civil War it wasn’t uncommon for people to use it as wallpaper.
What’s backing up our currency now?
What gives a ticket to a fifty-yard line seat to next year’s Super Bowl it’s value? Is its value determined by the paper it’s printed on or is its value determined by something else, something of value that it can be exchanged for, like maybe a seat on the fifty-yard line at the Super Bowl?
The dollar’s value is determined by what it can be exchanged for, which is everything that is for sale for a dollar. It’s not all that complicated.
I tend to think of future tense financially, and you tend to to rely upon the status quo of here and now in a world about to change in ways we can only imagine…
“… if you tend to rely upon the status quo of here and now in a world about to change in ways we can only imagine …”
The here and the now is where we live, and right here and right now people are clammoring for dollars.
Stop! You are both right.
Its a chewing gum and a breath mint.
Less filling! Tastes great!
Double talk double talk gum
Let them eat smog.
A friend of mine installs solar arrays, and now that electricity costs so much due to it being generated by oil, it actually pencils out nicely, with big savings over what you would pay the electric company for the same power.
Unlike most other businesses currently, his is thriving.
My brother-in-law used to be a solar installer in Mendocino County, CA, now works as an engineer for a big midwestern university. His full-time job is to increase energy efficiency for the university, by solar or otherwise. All the price hikes mean the solar arrays he’s installed at the school will pay off ahead of schedule.
And, of course, he is more in demand than ever.
Electricity is more produced with Coal and Nat gas. Both are going up to historic levels right along with oil.
The 100% financing is back:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121426681678998589.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news
Who are the people who think it is good policy to encourage low income households to financially hang themselves?
I may be the dumbest kid in the room, not even qualifying as the sharper crayon in the box or the sharper tool in the shed, however even I can see that there is something wrong here.
Our American corporations are no longer our corporations. The stock and bond holders have become increasingly foreign owned and there business opportunities are in other countries now. As they see it, this is their future. The US has only one thing to offer in globalization, our knowledge and comsumption. I might say our corporations are giving away knowledge access to other countries. In the meantime, through our military, we are providing the rape of the US by tamping down violence and freedom of the seas. The Sudis are the drug dealer and America is the addict by providing subsidized oil that greases the free trade system.
This is the same problem that the British faced during the Industrial Revolution. They banned knowledge of their machinery to foreign export. The immigrants to the US carried the information in their head.
So, now we are facing the same problem with regard to the knowledge revolution.
So what do we do? Unlike England, all things sold come to the US.
We have the edge, we are still the largest consumer market in the world, and we need to milk it for all its worth and start charging for the protection our military provides to the world’s new economic leaders!
Welcome to the USA - The World’s Bodyguard(tm)
There is something wrong in this world!!!
80% of the children in orphanages in Indonesia, per this source, have both parents.
They turned over their children to the state, because the parents could not feed them or pay for their education!
Next step, child prostitution!
Life is becoming ever cheaper. What is your body worth? Can we harvest your organs for a price?
Welcome to the brave new world. The USA is next.
Source article/video-CNN
Giving up Children, because they can not support them. Its better than death or supposedly a lifetime of poverty.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/06/24/indonesia.boy/index.html
Second time—
source for the above…
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/06/24/indonesia.boy/index.html
I am surprised that you are shocked to see this. Pretty common occurance in third world especially if the child is a female. Don’t try to apply first world values to third world countries. Live in a couple of them for a few years and you will understand why things are the way they are. Oh and BTW, most of the recipients of harvested organs are wealthy westeners.
stop having the kids. problem solved
Txck,
I do not have kids either, however if no one has children, then the Human race is extinct.
As we all know, there will always be procreation, even in the USA and even with birth control pills and even without immigration (hopefully).
They turned over their children to the state, because the parents could not feed them or pay for their education!
Next step, child prostitution!
I hope you are skipping a couple of steps…
Skip,
it really does not make any difference if I missed a few steps, if this is the end result.
I hope I am wrong, however here are the facts on the table. If it is happening among the poor third world nations, it will eventually happen in the USA.
PS: I know this is tin hat, however I believe that I heard that Chinese in detainment camps were having their organs harvested. I forgot the source, however this first came up from a Chinese dissident.
If It is true, we as a species have truly gone over the cliff. We might as well resort to cannibalism and through out all civilized values.
Sources:
US State Dept.
http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/rm/2001/3792.htm
Other.
http://en.epochtimes.com/211,111,,1.html
yt-video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ia04u0u8J8s
What can I say, as I suspect G. Carlin would say, we are all, and I mean all, are going to hel*, If their is a G*d!!!
That is why Chirstians believe there is a need for a Redeemer.
Question-
Why should I have the burden of responsibility of protecting my identity? Why should I prove my innocence in a crime? Why do I work for the GOVT. instead of them working for me? Somewhere, everything has been turned upside down.
Things are so screwed up that it is unbelievable!
I believe that it the time is coming where the US citizens need to take back their govt. from lobbyists.
Heck, I would not be surprise if are gravest enemies had Washington lobbyist protecting their interest!!!
In the meantime, the voting/paying US citizens, to a great extent, have no on representing their interests!
Get off your sofa, get away from your computer and vote for someone you believe in. If they do not perform, can them and replace them. Short of a rope, pitchfork and tar & feathers, that is your only option.
Hu Ra…
I suggest you push yourself away from this blog and go take a nice, pleasant, relaxing walk somewhere.
Life is short.
I think you are correct. Accept reality and go back to my Jack!
Special Report Issue #1: America’s Money - This week on CNN
Economists should listen to consumers
Experts have a half-glass full outlook for the economy while average Americans are far more pessimistic. Here’s why the consumer is probably right.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: June 24, 2008: 3:04 PM EDT
just a thought on the
$ 300,000,000,000.00 mortgage bail out
assuming many of these troubled loans are neg am
assuming closing costs and fees were rolled in to the
loans, if the lender only takes a 15% hair cut, won`t
they be comming out even or ahead with the tax
payer holding the whole bag.
If these estimates are anywhere in the ballpark (< 500K loans affected at a cost of under $1.7 bn), then the bailout will prove to be a drop in a very large bucket. For starters, how many hundred billion dollars have already been lost by major investment banks who gambled on securitized subprime loans?
I already begin to suspect the maximum cost of $1.7 bn may prove to be a lowball estimate.
FACTBOX: Comparison of Senate, House mortgage rescue
Tue Jun 24, 2008 4:09pm EDT
…
Following is a summary of some key differences between the House and Senate bills:
Both plans would expand the Federal Housing Administration and authorize the federal agency to refinance up to $300 billion in failing mortgages but there are important differences:
* FUNDING - The Senate plan would have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pay for the insurance program through an ongoing tariff on the mortgage-finance companies. The House bill would see the federal government absorb mortgage losses expected to reach $1.7 billion.
* IMPACT - The Senate bill is expected to refinance 400,000 loans between October 2008 and the end of September 2011 when the program would end. The House bill would open the mortgage insurance fund this year and close it at the end of 2013 and is expected to touch 500,000 loans.
Reading the el lay times today, and something’s not right when Wachovia is offering 4.25% on 12 month cd’s, and the ad is worded “Lock in a sure thing today”.
The plot thckens…
fed is going to raise interest rate in Nov. to fight inflation with the praying that the stagflation won’t get worse in the next couple months.
When I see all the ads here on the hbb page, I wonder what happened to McCain ? Did somebody tell him, that there is internet ?
Illinois is going after Countrywide for unfair lending practices,I wonder if the state of Connecticut will, or would that be too uncomfortable for Sen. Dodd.
The Federal Reserve cleared the Countrywide sale to BOA earlier this month WTF Sure Angelo bribe another senator, sell another 10 mil of your worthless stock, give another $400,000 loan to a maid, sell your worthless bank, just let me get back to my book on the Great Depression.