Selling Their Products At Prices Lower Than Cost
The Beijing Review reports from China. “Returning from a stint as a visiting scholar at Cambridge University, Wang Shi, didn’t change his straightforward style of communication. ‘People can no longer expect to be laughing all the way to the bank simply by purchasing properties, and the mushroom growth of China’s housing market will begin to slow down,’ said Wang, Chairman of Vanke, the largest real estate developer in the country, in an interview with Caixin website.”
“In some regions, housing prices have dropped remarkably and caused a cluster of systematic risks, resulting in local economies being caught in a vicious circle. Take Yuyao, a county-level city in Zhejiang for example. Since most local enterprises have had a finger in the real estate pie, the fact that the prices of some high-end houses fell by 40 percent has caused its real economy to be dragged to the brink of an abyss.”
From Reuters. “Shenzhen-based Guang Real Estate Group said the delivery of a small number of homes and apartments in the southern city of Huizhou had been delayed, but added it had compensated the buyers and promised to complete these projects eventually. The developer also denied media reports that it was on the brink of collapse. ‘We are facing some capital pressure, but the banks in partnership still care about us and we are confident in pulling through this hard time,’ an official from the company told Reuters. ‘Some media said we are on the brink of collapse, which is not true.’”
“The company said it would borrow from banks, funds and trusts, as well as speed up new projects for sale, in order to ease the liquidity crunch.”
The New York Times. “The chairman of a large developer with operations across China said that offering price discounts for the remaining units in half-sold projects was extremely difficult, because earlier buyers could protest and demand refunds equal to the discounts. The potential for protests, and not banking sector exposure to real estate, ‘is what concerns me,’ said the developer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.”
“But Winnie Y. Cheng, the research director at Centaline, said that many developers could not afford to hold apartments off the market indefinitely and were already cutting prices. Street protests have occurred, notably in Hangzhou, although earlier buyers have mostly accepted the discounts for later buyers, she said. These days, she added, ‘All of the developments are willing to cut their price.’”
“Su Hua, a real estate broker in Shenzhen, had his highest commissions ever last year, as a speculative frenzy prompted families all over China to buy and sell apartments at a brisk pace. But he sat in a deserted office late last week. Mr. Su worries that the market tumult shows no sign of ending. ‘There is not much else I know how to do,’ Mr. Su said. ‘Maybe I will consider selling insurance on the side, if business continues to slow.’”
Want China Times. “In Shenyang, there were five plots of land on offer at an auction on May 5 but only one was sold successfully for 930,000 yuan (US$149,000), which was close to the floor price. The five plots only attracted three bidders on site even though their starting prices were relatively cheap, with the most expensive one priced at 1,584 yuan (US$254) per square meter.”
“An executive working for a developer headquartered in Guangdong and operating in Shenyang in the northeast said he already feels the chill in Shenyang’s housing market. His company’s regional president told him that inventory in the city is too high and that he has been unable to sell the units despite lowering prices. A source from the industry pointed out that another developer that topped sales charts has been selling their products at prices lower than their cost.”
“In April, housing inventory in Beijing was up by 10% to 8.64 million square meters from a month earlier while Guangzhou experienced the same with an 8% growth to 78.49 million square meters.”
From Shanghai Daily. “Shanghai’s new housing market remained weak for another week as sentiment among homeseekers and real estate developers was extremely sluggish. The average cost of the new homes fell 4.1 percent from the previous seven-day period to 26,777 yuan ($4,293) per square meter, Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co said in a report.”
“‘The slack momentum was really uncommon for this time of the year as May often sees robust transactions of homes because the market has fully rebounded from the seasonal low of the Spring Festival,’ said Huang Zhijian, chief analyst at Uwin. ‘To make it even worse, the developers all seemed very hesitant to release their projects as they are still struggling whether to offer significant discounts to unload their supplies.’”
From Caixin Online. “China’s housing market has reached a tipping point and transaction volumes will begin to shrink, an analyst with Hong Kong-based brokerage and investment group CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said. ‘We really think this year is a tipping point for the industry,’ Wang Yan, director of the CLSA’s property research department, said. ‘From 2013 to 2020, we expect the sales volume of the country’s property market to shrink by 36 percent.’”
“The research was based on a CLSA survey of 609 completed residential communities that included 800,000 units in 12 cities. It found that 15 percent of the homes were vacant on average. The research also presents figures that show the country’s supply of residential properties has far outstripped demand. CLSA found that every year about 10 million homes were built while only 7 million were needed. At the current speed of building and sales, the vacancy ratio is set to increase further, with 3 to 4 million unwanted homes completed every year, the research shows. By the end of 2017, the total excess supply could hit 18 million, which could be worth 35 percent of GDP.’ ”
“‘The stock in third-tier cities has been building up all the time, but their capacity is limited,’ Wang said. ‘So they can keep on building but no one will buy.’”
Arlington, VA Housing Prices Crater 31%; Inventory Balloons 66% As Demand Plunges 20%
http://www.movoto.com/arlington-va/market-trends/
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/VA-Arlington-home-value/r_30258/#metric=mt%3D30%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D5%26rt%3D8%26r%3D30258%26el%3D0
Vienna (DC Metro), VA Housing Prices Sink 9% YoY As Housing Demand Craters 11%
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/VA-Vienna-home-value/r_21080/#metric=mt%3D19%26dt%3D3%26tp%3D4%26rt%3D8%26r%3D21080%252C248656%26el%3D0
McLean (DC metro), VA Housing Demand Evaporates 23% YoY As Prices Dive 6% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/VA-Mc-Lean-home-value/r_46465/#metric=mt%3D19%26dt%3D3%26tp%3D5%26rt%3D8%26r%3D46465%252C248061%26el%3D0
Herndon, VA Housing Prices Crater 16% YoY; Inventory Up 98% As Sellers Seek Exit
http://www.movoto.com/herndon-va/market-trends/
“The chairman of a large developer with operations across China said that offering price discounts for the remaining units in half-sold projects was extremely difficult, because earlier buyers could protest and demand refunds equal to the discounts. The potential for protests, and not banking sector exposure to real estate, ‘is what concerns me,’ said the developer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.”
Bahahahahahahahahahahaha
“The potential for protests, and not banking sector exposure to real estate …”
Gotcha! The developer will have to spend a lot of time worrying about saving his stupid ass (or so he says) and by doing so will end up helping to save the banks.
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Why doesn’t India have their own property bubble to bail China out? Rich Indian tech millionaires and all that.
I’ve read that prices in India are through the roof. Perhaps we’ll be hearing about their troubles later.
‘Sachin Sandhir, MD, The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, South Asia tells Sarika Malhotra that the Indian real estate market , especially residential real estate has been witnessing challenges in the form of poor sales and high inventory of unsold units. “With the current glut in the market, it is expected that sales will remain subdued for next two quarters and prices will move up only marginally in coming months.”
‘Q. What advice would you give to home buyers?’
‘A. Buyers in such a case should not really wait for the markets to stabilize. Due to a high amount of unsold inventory, development firms are under pressure to sell at discounted rates. So my advice to buyers would be that they should enter the market and look for properties as per their budget. As the market is likely to revive during the second half of the year, it is advised that buyers strike a good deal with firms that are willing to sell at lower rates. Bargain hard to get more discounts at the marked or quoted property rates.’
Build them and they will come?
“By the end of 2017, the total excess supply could hit 18 million, which could be worth 35 percent of GDP.”
And the money to build these things came from where? Thin air, maybe?
And when the money vanishes then where will it go? Back into thin air, maybe.
So (if this is true) then 35 percent of GDP was based on thin air? And making this disappear will make 35 percent of GDP disappear?
‘China’s vast “shadow banking” sector is now valued at $4.76 trillion, according to the government’s premier research group the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) as it warned of potential risks to the financial system.’
‘Shadow banking in China encompasses a huge network of lending outside formal channels and beyond the reach of regulators, including activities by online finance platforms, credit guarantee companies and microcredit firms.’
‘The figure is slightly lower than an earlier estimate by ratings agency Moody’s, which put shadow banking activities at $US4.8 trillion ($5.19 trillion) in 2012, more than half of the country’s gross domestic product.’
‘Deputy central bank governor Liu Shiyu warned that shadow banking threatens to undermine the financial system and called for tougher rules to control an industry that’s driven up borrowing costs and done little to support the economy and productivity.’
‘Shadow finance creates a “gambling” mindset, with funds channeled into short-term investments where returns are more lucrative, Liu said at a conference in Beijing.’
‘Investors may be offered an 8 percent yield on a wealth management product, Liu said. The layers of fees and extra interest charged by intermediaries can push the interest rate for the end borrower up to 14 percent, he said.’
“If everyone in society is trying to get into the financing business, we may have entered a phase where a fever has started to affect our ability to think,” Liu said.’
‘Water shortages in China have been exacerbated due to rapid urbanization and industrialization, with many new cities facing water crises.’
“The reckless expansion of cities significantly boosts the usage of water, and water resources have also reduced sharply as well as this, there has been an increase in concerns about water quality,” said Wang Hao, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Engineering.’
‘The Zhengzhou Airport Comprehensive Economic Experimental Zone, which has been called the world’s largest production base for smartphones, has also been experiencing a water crisis since its establishment. The Foxconn Technology Group has 260,000 employees based in the economic zone. The local water resources department stated that many companies had built their plants in the zone at a fast pace but had discovered the water supply problem only after the completion of construction.’
Supplying a first world infrastructure for 1.3 billion people must be a barrel of monkeys. And if there is anything that is in short supply in most of the world, it’s the “blue gold”.
‘With the 25th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square crackdown less than a month away, China has launched a broad effort to muzzle and detain citizens who are attempting to remember the victims.’
‘On Tuesday, authorities detained human rights lawyer Pu Zhiqiang and at least five other activists who had attended a Tiananmen seminar in Beijing three days earlier.’
‘Then, on Thursday, state media reported that authorities had “criminally detained” prominent journalist Gao Ju — once jailed for her writings during the 1989 protests — and accused her of sharing a government document with a foreign website.’
‘The detentions, coupled with other recent actions against activists associated with the Tiananmen protests, are a further demonstration that Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to take a hard line on free speech, even as he preaches the need to “open up” and reform China’s economy.’
“Since Xi Jinping took power, things have intensified significantly,” said Yaxue Cao, a Washington-based human rights activist who runs the China Change website.’
‘Cao thinks the stepped-up police action is related to the significance of the 25-year anniversary, as well as internal worries about maintaining control. “This year, the Chinese Communist Party feels particularly vulnerable,” said Cao, noting that there have been recent protests in Taiwan and Hong Kong against Beijing’s influence.’
‘Developers’ net debt to equity ratio has reached a record high since 2007. On May 8, the state-run media “Xinhua News Agency” reported that real estate had become the second least profitable industry sector, right after the financial sector, during the first quarter. Among 625 hybrid mutual funds, 258, or 41.28%, have already eradicated the real estate sector from the funds.’
‘Real estate has become “a hot potato” for all big mutual funds. Data show that the real estate sector only had about 0.3 billion Chinese Yuan cash inflow on April 24 last month. All other trading days, there were only cash outflows.’
‘In addition, some purchased lands have been returned. Recently, the property enterprise “Zhong Zhu Zhi Ye” asked to return a piece of land it purchased a month ago. This piece of land is located in Xindian, Fengtai, Beijing. The bidding deposit for this land was 0.423 billion Chinese Yuan. As commented in “First Financial Daily”, light trading market in real estate indicates the property market has been in panic in Beijing. The action of land returning predicts the tendency.’
‘From the perspective of net profit, 12 out of 51 real estate stock companies experienced a financial loss during the 1st quarter. More than half of them suffered from a profit decrease.’
‘Duan Shaoyi, MBA mentor from Beijing Normal University, “The choice of the mutual funds is rational. It’s actually releasing a market signal. The bubble of China’s real estate industry is about to burst. Once it bursts, it’ll impact the financial income of local government tremendously. I think it’s a good thing. If it doesn’t burst, local governments will collect more money from lands. It’s totally a waste of resources. It’ll only make the government more corrupt.”
‘Niu Dao: “When the real estate industry gets into trouble, the central bank and the government would try all means to maintain housing prices instead of following the market. Nonetheless, if you don’t follow the market, you will be punished by the market sooner or later. In the end, you can’t prevent the bubble from bursting with money anymore. It is the case right now. It’s cloud-high now and printing more money cannot help anymore.”
‘On the website of “Beijing Housing and City Construction Committee”, it shows that the second-hand house trading volume was 7,616 in April. During May 1st holiday, only 31 deals were completed, which dropped more than 80% and reached a record low since the past 6 years. Meanwhile, the price of 80% of the houses has been lowered.’
China:
First world real estate prices
Third world wages
What could possibly go wrong?
And they aren’t they only ones in this pickle. We’ve read reports on this blog about flats costing $100K USD in places like Ghana and Namibia, where the average laborer only make a few hundred dollars a month.
Sound familiar?
May 14, 2014, 12:32 a.m. EDT
China property crash: Economists debate outlook
By Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch
Reuters
A board advertises apartments for sale or rent at a real-estate agency in Beijing.
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — After a spell of jitters over shadow banking, the property sector is back in the forefront for those worried about a Chinese economic collapse.
The People’s Bank of China highlighted the seriousness of the situation by calling in the chief executives of the nation’s top banks earlier this week and asking them to lower mortgage rates, process their housing loans at a faster rate, and take other measures to help the market.
Is the central bank right to be so worried?
London-based Capital Economics thinks so. In a new note, their analysts write that while concerns about industrial overcapacity, shadow banking and other Chinese economic bogeymen may be overblown, real estate is the “one area where the risks are high and growing, and which, at the very least, is likely to lead to slower growth over the next couple of years.”
For CapEcon, it’s not so much the price bubble, but rather the construction boom that threatens the sector.
“On average, property starts have increased at a real rate of 16% each year since the turn of the century,” the note says. “Residential investment simply cannot continue at this pace.”
This, CapEcon says, is more serious than overcapacity seen in other sectors, simply because real estate is such a large part of the economy, accounting for just under 10% of China’s gross domestic product in 2013.
And while they feel confident the government has the tools to ease the situation, the CapEcon analysts see a significant slowdown in property investment shaving a full percentage point off of China’s GDP growth.
But a number of economists think the fear is overblown.
…
‘A slowdown in China’s property sector coming at a time when Australia’s government is clamping down on spending threatens to shave more than 1 percentage point off domestic growth.’
Australia relies heavily on its iron ore exports to China and the disproportionate size of the Asian powerhouse’s property sector, relative to other parts of its economy, means any impact will be felt locally.’
‘According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, new property construction fell 25.2 per cent in January-March and the value of homes sold dropped 7.7 per cent.’
‘The residential property sector in China accounts for 24 per cent of steel consumption, with obvious signs of slowing, this has pushed the price of iron ore, one of Australia’s most valuable commodities, into a correction, down 23.3 per cent in 2014.’
“The impact that a slowdown in the Chinese property sector would have on the Australian economy is quite large and meaningful,” Credit Suisse analyst Damien Boey said. “If you had a serious slowdown in Chinese property, which we are sort of seeing at the moment, you could easily shave off a per cent or so from the real GDP numbers [for Australia], unless of course you had offsetting policy stimulus, which we’re not really seeing at the moment,” Mr Boey said.’
‘Instead, the Australian government is doing the opposite and slashing spending…Relaxing austerity and stimulating the economy underpinned Credit Suisse’s real GDP forecasts of 2 per cent for Australia, with the government now doing the opposite, real GDP growth will probably start with a 1 handle in front of it, Mr Boey said.’
‘The trickle-down effects of a downturn in China’s property sector threaten more than just Australia’s miners. “It will affect our resources export volumes, it will affect out commodity prices and to the extent that it affects both of those and corporate profits, then it could actually affect jobs and even housing,” Mr Boey said.’
‘China accounts for 30 per cent of Australia’s exports, of which 80 per cent are commodities, so a correction in China’s property sector would have serious implications for Australia, UBS economist Scott Haslem said. “Growth in China closer to 5 per cent in 2015 would likely see us lower Australia’s forecast for 2015 growth from 3.25 per cent, after 3 per cent in 2014, back closer to 2 per cent,” Mr Haslem said.’
http://www.smh.com.au/business/china/china-property-slowdown-to-hurt-australia-20140514-389ag.html#ixzz31hQTUrFU
‘The trickle-down effects of a downturn in China’s property sector threaten more than just Australia.
Brazil for example.
hey Brazil I think faster pussycat sell sell is modeled after the critically acclaimed classic “faster pussycat kill kill” Guessing looks like the lead Amazon who kills dudes with karate chops. So angry all the time.
great movie BTW
HA say it only $55 a sq foot.
HA
Head for the exit.
HA say it only $55 a sq foot.
LOL. HA is probably still barking it - barking everything. Bad vibes and nothing to add. (That’s why I have him and strawberrypicker/LolaWhatever on “ignore”.)
You don’t have the fortitude to ignore me Lola.
Weekly Mortgage Purchase Applications Crater
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101670096
Housing is cratering.
“An Oversupply Of Houses Has Surfaced”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=8268
‘Counting off-balance-sheet lending, credit was growing four times faster than GDP on a 12-month rolling basis, says Victor Shih, a professor at University of California-San Diego. No, the problem isn’t the amount of credit, but that it isn’t going to the right places. The most debt-saddled sectors are state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and local governments, which invest in real estate through local government financing vehicles (LGFVs). The sectors that tend to be dominated by SOEs are cement, steel and other industries saddled with overcapacity.’
‘Take cement, for example. In the last decade, China has invested so heavily in cement factories that it now has more cement capacity than the rest of the world combined, according to The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Robert Ward. In 2011 and 2012 alone, China churned out more cement than the US did in the entire 20th century. You can bet that all those cement companies aren’t making money now; what’s keeping them afloat is fresh bank credit and property investment. What will happen to them as property investment peters out? Loosening credit could offset that. But that will mean banks will pump even more credit to sectors that are already producing too much to begin with.’
‘At the end of 2013, trust loans to real estate companies totaled 1 trillion yuan ($160 billion), up 45% on the previous year, according to Andrew Polk, a China economist at The Conference Board.’
“These types of loans hold particular risk because they are the most likely candidates for spreading contagion throughout the financial system,” says Polk. “Real estate is widely used as collateral for obtaining both bank and non-bank credit, so any sustained fall in prices could potentially tip into a downward spiral” of falling prices, as defaults prompt trust companies to sell off that collateral to pay investors, driving prices down further.’
‘And since trusts don’t set aside capital to protect against defaults, either households that bought the product in the first place will have to swallow losses or the banks that marketed them will. The test of who foots the bill will come this year; the surge in trust lending to real estate in 2013 means that some 450 billion yuan of those investments will come due in 2014 alone, says Polk.’
San Diego/Carlsbad inventory may be dropping due to a massive wildfire. Summers gonna suck in So. Cal this year!
I could see the brown haze of the SD county smoke while driving home from Irvine today.
You got that right!
What I heard so far is that inventory dropped by 30 in the Carlsbad area.