‘Spoiled By The Upside’ In Ventura County
The Ventura County Star has this report from California. “Homeowners have short memories. 2005 and 2004 were two of the strongest years on record in Ventura County, which is skewing people’s perspective about a much tamer market this year. Some home sellers might have a difficult time adjusting after riding high through one of the most superheated real estate periods in California.”
“Ann and Ron O’Niell of Ventura are not too worried. Their three-bedroom midtown Ventura home has been on the market since March. And the price has been reduced to $659,000. After seeing so many ups and downs in the market, the couple is fairly relaxed, although they are in escrow to buy a home in Camarillo.”
“‘So it takes two months or three months to sell a house, that is what it used to be,’ Ron O’Niell said.”
“The days of multiple offers seem to have passed completely. CAR Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young said she can practically pinpoint the turning point. It was October. That is when the number of sales started declining, and in many markets prices flattened out, including Ventura County. There were some short lulls during 2004 and 2005, but this time the slowdown seems to be sticking.”
“‘There is no doubt that this has slowed down faster than we expected,’ Appleton-Young said.”
“Many Californians who saw home prices plummet during the early 1990s probably remember people walking away from their homes.”
“In Ventura County, the median home price was $250,410 in January 1990, but it sank to $193,965 by May 1995. The climb from there has been phenomenal. Most recently, the median price for an existing single-family home in Ventura County was $681,190 for April, a 251 percent gain in a little more than a decade.”
“Cindy Malecky has had her midtown Ventura home for sale since February. She isn’t surprised the market has cooled, but she cannot figure out what buyers want. ‘In my view, things are back to reality. The 2004, 2005 market was not reality,’ she said. ‘Now it seems like they are taking an especially long time.’”
“Her three-bedroom, two-bathroom house is listed for $725,000. After owning the house for 20 years, she will see a hefty profit if the house sells for that price. ‘I really thought that by now I would be packing,’ said Malecky. ‘I thought I would be out of here by fall, but I am not willing to give the house away to do it.’”
“What is still up for debate is whether the market is flattening to average or will it sink below average, possibly even plunge to a market like the early 1990s, when the median home price declined nearly every month. ‘We are kind of at an interesting point, so we don’t know which way this is going,’ said Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast.”
“He said he believes the market has become overinflated. The best thing for everyone, he said, would be for home prices to simply flatten out and let the rest of the economy catch up.”
“Patrick Duffy, of Hanley Wood Market Intelligence in Costa Mesa, calls for little change over the next year with no major crash. The slower market is difficult on homeowners who started to believe ‘they had a God-given right’ to 20 percent annual appreciation in real estate, he said. ‘People get spoiled by the upside,’ Duffy said.”
“She isn’t surprised the market has cooled, but she cannot figure out what buyers want.”
How about a more reasonable price and less hefty profits for you. LMAO.
Simmssays…video cameras for the lazy
http://www.americaninventorspot.com
How’s the fire coming? Good Luck!
simmssays wrote
“How about a more reasonable price and less hefty profits for you. LMAO.”
You beat me to the punch line. Here, the lady would stand to make a hefty profit if she got her $725,000 price and cannot figure out why no one is going to finance her (most likely) equity locust escape out to, say, College Town, Texas! Ha! Bring on the crash in Ventura!
This is why I don’t consider cheaper home prices ‘doom and gloom.’ This lady won’t be hurt one bit if she gets $500k or $400k, or less.
Sure she will, she’s already in escrow for a new home.
She should price it fair and escape with a nice profit. I have seen homes sitting on the market for what seems forever in arizona. They are way overpriced and the greater fools aren’t biting as hard. What I do notice is that homes
Those who sell this spring or summer will do so by reducing their prices, and will not be hurt much, as the reason they will reduce is BECAUSE THEY CAN AFFORD TO DO SO. Those who do not sell this spring and summer are the ones who will really suffer, on two levels:
1) The reason they are not lowering their prices to a level where their homes will sell is because they are either greedy or they are “stucco”; in either case, the pain of selling at a lower price will be worse for them than the early exiters.
2) When they ultimately find themselves in a position where they have to sell, they will have drained their cash reserves, and they will have to lower their reservation prices by MORE than if they had come to terms with reality early, as prices will have already moved down against them.
You are right about this. I just looked up a home I used to own on the Zillow site. It has gone up alot but seems to have peaked 3-4 months ago at 471K and now zillow values it at 430K. That is 6-7% in 3-4 months. By the way the home is in South Florida,
she will see a hefty profit if the house sells for that price. I’m not willing to give the house away , just hold on about 2 years and you will give the house away,
Bubblefucious say:
“Those who do not wish to give their house away may have it taken instead.”
Apologies to Rainman, love the character.
LOL… looking forward to more wisdom from Bubblefucious!
There are many Bubblefucious imitators but there’s still only one Bubbles The Clown.
“‘There is no doubt that this has slowed down faster than we expected,’ [CAR Chief Economist and Permabull Shill] Appleton-Young said.”
Who is “we,” Ms. Appleton-Young?
Your “soft landing” has morphed into a “hard crash” right before your very eyes.
Mr. Schniepp was quoted in the Union Tribune recently saying that a soft-landing was ‘wishful thinking.’
I hope this isn’t the hard crash, just a bunch of turbulence.
Prices are still sky high. When the hard crash really comes, I want to see 50% off prices.
that is exactly what I was thinking. She certainly is not speaking for me, nor many of the readers of this blog, IMHO.
And, BTW, I would say the peak was no in “october” as she claims. I believe it was in August was the end game on the house price increases. Any sales action after that was probably in many caseszs inconsequential, relative to 2004 and 2005 through August.
By “we” I think she meant her and David Lereah. They have seemed to agree with eachother so much in the past. Has that poor lady ever found her new catch phrase?
“[Cindy Malecky's] three-bedroom, two-bathroom house is listed for $725,000. After owning the house for 20 years, she will see a hefty profit if the house sells for that price. ‘I really thought that by now I would be packing,’ said Malecky. ‘I thought I would be out of here by fall, but I am not willing to give the house away to do it.’”
We hear this over and over, yet it never ceases to amaze me. Pray tell, Cindy, how to you figure you’re GIVING your property away, if someone pays you what the Market says it’s worth rather than the figure your runaway greed has conjured up? I sincerely hope this fool holds out for her “non-giveaway” price until way after the bottom drops out, then has the rest of her life to curse herself for not getting out while the getting was still good.
Absolutely! what a dumbass. I can’t even believe there are folks thinking like this. She’ll be lucky to get half in another year or so.
We need to keep a log of our HB cliches and when we hear’em.
1) My favorite is this one (20 year owner ‘giving’ away a 700K house that was purchased for
I think this mentality is still pervasive due to the fact that so many are still holding out their high prices, deluding the neighbors into thinking that selling lower would be “giving it away”. It’s also fear that they’ll end up somehow selling low and being forced to buy high.
The psychological term for what she is exhibiting is, I believe, called “denial”.
Yeah! Cindy, GIVING the house away does not involve taking a PROFIT you stupid greedy four letter word. You are not ENTITLED to these delicious profits you have already cashed in on in your mind. And since you are already in escrow, guess what? You just put the screws to yourself didn’t ya?! Now repeat a thousand times, “My greedy nature is creating problems in my shriveled up head”.
“What is still up for debate is whether the market is flattening to average or will it sink below average, possibly even plunge to a market like the early 1990s…”
This market can’t flatten to average unless there are years and years of no gains! (I’m defining an average market as the historic average affordability of course.)
“This market can’t flatten to average unless there are years and years of no gains!”
Seems extremely unlikely, doesn’t it? It amazes me that this result is the one predicted by Thornburgh. The mainstream economists expect incomes to “catch up” but, in the meantime, there are a million homes out there waiting to be flipped, the vast majority bleeding cash. When I grow up, I want to be an economist. I can’t do any worse than THESE bozos.
“Patrick Duffy, of Hanley Wood Market Intelligence in Costa Mesa, calls for little change over the next year with no major crash.
Let me draft Mr. Duffy’s next public utterance for release in about six months:
“As Mr. Duffy cleaned out his desk at the now-defunct Hanley Wood Market Intelligence office, he commented ruefully that, “I never saw it coming. I mean, the bottom fell out, and it ain’t over yet — prices are still dropping faster than Paris Hilton’s panties. A few cranks on the housing bubble blogs tried to warn me, but all the so-called industry experts were forecasting a ‘permanant plateau’ or ’soft landing.’” He gestured toward a bag lady shuffling past outside, pushing a shopping car full of scrap aluminum cans. “That’s Suzanne. She assured me she’d done the research and it was smooth sailing ahead.” He shook his head in disgust. “Now she just prays that none of the FBs that were turned out of their homes because of her ever recognize her when they’re roasting rat kabobs together. Say, would you like to buy an almost new Mercedes SUV?”
” prices are still dropping faster than Paris Hilton’s panties. ”
LOL
dude, this is a laptop I can’t replace the keyboard.
Let’s try this-WARNING-PUT DRINK DOWN.
You need to wear keyboard protection when you read the The Housing Bubble blob (smile)
Panties? I didn’t think she wore panties????
Problem is, prices haven’t yet started to drop precipitously here in Cali, and it remains to be seen how much they will drop. I overheard a realtor this morning here in Sacto with a young couple at Starbucks. They were preparing an offer @$425k for a pretty basic house in my neighborhood that was less than $200k five years ago. The beat goes on.
“The beat goes on.”
It does, indeed. Fortunately, the bubble drum beat is getting louder by the week. Massive credit availability or not, folks hate to lose money, and the number of people deciding “well, maybe the home we’re now in is good enough … at least for a while” will snowball. Bernanke can drop as much money as he likes, but he can’t make people spend it.
skipintro, I was in the supermarket the other day in Sacto and overheard some people saying something to the effect of how they were getting ready to buy a home for $400K but it’s WORTH about $650K.
On the flip side I was out at Travis AFB about a month ago and I heard a conversation that went something like this:
Young Woman to Older Man: Hi, how are you doing?
Older Man: I’m doing great, my home’s now worth $300K and I only paid $220K for it.
I keep my mouth shut.
Sammy schadenfreude, you’re a very talented and skilled writer.
Thank you, Incredulous.
LOL. Rat kabobs, I gotta remember that.
i can’t find a cindy malecky in my search engine. any of you guys have some luck?
Not sure about this one…
http://www.raderprograms.com/bios.aspx
Cindy Malecky, M.B.A. - Exercise Counselor. Cindy is originally from Connecticut but has called Southern California her home for 23 years. She received her Bachelors in Science from Boston University and subsequently earned her Masters from the University of Phoenix. She is a Certified Health Fitness Instructor from the American College of Sports Medicine with specialized training in Pilate’s for rehabilitation. Cindy enjoys helping individuals achieve their fitness goals.
Cindy needs a silicone injection to increase the size of her brain.
Does anyone here know which cities are in Ventura county, besides Ventura?
Other then Ventura, there’s Oxnard, Camarillo, Somis, Port Hueneme, Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, Santa Paula, Ojai, Moorpark, Fillmore, and maybe a couple more I forgot.
I grew up in Camarillo, but I entered the workforce just when the housing costs started to get insane (I moved to Dallas primarily because it was more affordable). Every time I go back to visit family, there’s a new development of enormous stucco’d McMansions on itty-bitty lots where a citrus grove or strawberry field used to be. Affordably priced from the low $1,000,000’s.
have spent some time in Ventura, have traveled all over the county abd city environs. Ventura county has some nice open spaces, a good stretch of beach, wild rugged mountains, a large irrigated farm economy, and good weather. And the county keeps it that way by strictly limiting large scale open-ended urban development. Gepgraphical factors(presence od Santa paula flood plain and mountains to the north) also limit growth.
Up in the plateau region(newbury park, 1000 oaks, simi valley, moorpark) there is room for urban growth but again strict growth limitations apply. Moorpark at last look in 2005 seems to be growing a bit, but that is the exception.
All in all Ventura county is a very desirable place to own a home but prices are in the stratosphere, due in part to strict limitations on home-building.
correction:I meant Santa Clara river floodplan.
Dude, don’t forget Piru.
Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, Oxnard
[[Ventura County, California]]
Is there any way I can invest in the company that hires out these professional sign-spinning guys?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIQgkc8VFr4&search=sign%20spinner
Because I think he’s about to become the hottest commodity in California, very very soon.
(btw if you haven’t seen the video, it’s amazing. i think it should become the logo for this website)
Um, yeah, he’s a great sign spinner alright — the only problem is, 90% of the passing cars won’t have the slightest idea which direction he’s trying to steer them toward, not that they would’ve gone there anyway.
I had the same thought. Perhaps he is getting paid under the table by some of the competition.
You don’t understand - the direction is EVERYWHERE! Open houses for everyone!
Excellent video and nice sound track added.
I noticed that the sign said 4537 Beverly Blvd Maybe people at that “open house” have some leads on where to find those guys.
He’s bad ASS
The slower market is difficult on homeowners who started to believe ‘they had a God-given right’ to 20 percent annual appreciation in real estate, he said. ‘People get spoiled by the upside
Now, they have a god-given right to a 20% year over year depreciation. Might be a little hard for these FBers to swallow. Get out the vasoline.
Cindy Malecky probably can’t afford to sell for less than $725K, because it seems she has liberated all of that equity to invest in a couple of Phoenix homes (at top dollar of course), a couple of SUVs, trips to Bermuda and Las Vegas (where she lost thousands on gambling), etc. What do you think?
“He said he believes the market has become overinflated. The best thing for everyone, he said, would be for home prices to simply flatten out and let the rest of the economy catch up.”
No, no, no, Mr. Schniepp! The best thing for MY family and millions of other priced-out families would be for prices to PLUMMET until someone earning an average-guy salary can afford to buy an average-guy house with a traditional mortgage.
The best thing for everyone, he said, would be for home prices to simply flatten out and let the rest of the economy catch up.”
This is a prayer to the wage inflation gods to raise wages. No way this will happen. They have spent years beating down wages and benefits in this country. Does he think they will let up now just because he wishes it to be so? If home prices flatten out long term then there are going to be a lot of empty houses because millions of people are barely treading water as it is and they are doing it by increasing their debt. When the debt lifeline is cut they cannot hang on. Look around, people are mortgaged up to their eyeballs. Does this look like a bunch that will be able to batten down the hatches and ride out the storm? I don’t think so. This is all bluster and false bravado. Let’s be realistic, what we are looking at here is the start of the biggest financial crisis in the history of this country. Most people don’t have a clue. This is going to get so ugly it ain’t even funny. gloom and doom tag off…
I think this country is in for a rude awakening. The shiite is going to hit the fan.
i work in 100 jokes and everyone drives a bmw new porsche hummer and dont forget the westlake village lic plate holder.these are the cheapest bastards i have ever met.hard core new yorkers have more class and most have no money to pay they are leveredged up to there neck.
I totally agree with you.. we are looking at this affecting all areas of our economy… add this to our “free trade” with China and other nations, and we have simply set ourselves up for the biggest of financial and spiritual correction in history.
The best thing for everyone, he said, would be for home prices to simply flatten out and let the rest of the economy catch up.”
I do NOT think is the “best thing for everyone”. This might appear good for people that currently highly leveraged in one of these overprices properties.
Yeah they need things to flatten out in order to stop the chaos of declining property values and increasing foreclosures and then tighten money supply, which will cause all the realtors to lose their job.
Agreed. A fast plummet will then get the market moving again, and people can get on with their lives.
Here’s who’s hurt if there’s a fast plummet: people who took out suicide loans and couldn’t afford in the first place.
If there is a decade of flat price, the people who are hurt are a whole generation of first time home buyers.
If there is a decade of flat price, the people who are hurt are a whole generation of first time home buyers.
_______________
Yep. Add to that the prudent folks who previously owned homes, but couldn’t move due to the high prices (without suicide loans). That’s why so many of us sold and now rent.
For my family, we would have had to more than double our monthly payment (over $1,400/mo) just to get an extra bedroom — no change in neighborhood type, etc. No can do. We rent and wait.
i rent a new 3/2/2 for $875.00. to buy this home would be $1400.00 per month. do the math. i will rent till the crash.
” prices are still dropping faster than Paris Hilton’s panties. ”
LMFAO
Panty raid at paris hiltons, now that sounds like real fun. Does she wear panties? I imagine her going commando at all those clubs.
when in rome
about a couple weeks ago there was an article in the Los Angeles Times about the growth in the Storage rental business, and the auctioning off of storage unites of people that are late on their rent.
In the story, it was discussed that one guy won the auction for Paris Hilton’s storage unit. It apparently had many intimate things in it, including diaries, and other things. The winning bidder offered to sell it back to Paris Hilton for some crazy number like $500,000.
The representatives of Paris Hilton report that the reason the rent was not paid was because of a slip up by the staff that take care of paying her bills.
That auction winner should sell the stuff on e-bay. He’d probably make over $1M.
“Cindy Malecky has had her midtown Ventura home for sale since February. ‘In my view, things are back to reality. The 2004, 2005 market was not reality,’ she said.
I live in Ventura County, and the folks here are nothing less than delusional.
You want “reality” Cindy???
Take the median income in VC, about $65,000 and figure a take home of about $4,600.00 per month. Now, figure a “median” home price of $680,000 and figure an $600,000 average loan balance. Your payment with todays interest rate is about $4,911 including tax and ins. So Cindy.. how much do all the VC soccer moms have left for food, clothes, and gas for the SUV???
Reality is coming to to a theater near you.
J
The idiot a couple of doors down from me (I rent a $650k house for $2500/mo) just had a sale fall through for $689k - in Valencia. They just relisted it for $789k???? What greedy bastards! A similar thing happened last year when a house around the corner fell out of escrow at $599k and they relisted it for $689k and sold it to some idiot (pushed up comps for the whole neighborhood). What is going on here??? I know these people’s story - he has to relocate out of state and if he doesn’t sell his company will buy it. He is trying to find some fool to give him $100k more than before and then jack up the comps for the neighborhood. I think it is wishful thinking!! Out of the 300 houses listed for sale in my zipcode 110 are reduced in price anywhere $10k - $100k. I am hoping and praying these greedy SOBs go down in flames!!! I can’t wait til fall!! Don’t they say when we reach the 4th of July the selling season is beginning to wind down? I really hope prices PLUNGE!! Stupid bastards!
Amen.
I wonder if any buyers are getting kickbacks from neighbors in an area for pushing comps up for everyone? You could get into some real crooked stuff if you dug hard enough. Some of the nonsense is so bizarre that you wonder what is really going on with these idiotic buyers. If you look at the balance sheets of most people they have no net worth, they are debt slaves.I might not own a house right now but I know I have more net worth than these foolish debt slaves.
“I might not own a house right now but I know I have more net worth than these foolish debt slaves.”
Whatever you do, keep your identity anonymous or the debt slaves will come to you asking for a loan which they will never pay back. Or they will just use the ballot box and vote for a Demopublican who will raid your savings.
The more they drive up prices, the harder and faster the fall. Prices are so high now that they aren’t even leaving enough meat on the carcass for the foreclosure vultures:
http://tinyurl.com/ro2ok
Many homes that do end up in court are saddled with more than one mortgage and have little or no equity – so the investors take a pass…
“Now you’re getting into the market where there’s plenty to buy, but there’s nowhere to sell it,” said Peter Winn, owner of San Diego-based Westminster Investments… Some experts are forecasting Armageddon-level increases in foreclosures in overpriced markets during the next few years…Historically, borrowers who run into trouble paying their mortgage tend to do so within the first three to five years of the loan period.
Currently, more than half of the nation’s $9.2 trillion in outstanding residential mortgage and home equity loans are less than three years old, said Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Didn’t mean to copy the whole article out of context but it is clear that trouble is brewing and this bubble is in the throes of woes as we speak.
Oh you will get those. Usually some Doctor who moved to the area. Those guys will pay anything. However, there are only so many Doctors and when finally find a place they like they won’t move for anybody.
As a doctor, if a offended. Just kidding, doctors can be amazingly stupid financially. I an an ER doc and moved from Las Vegas to South Dakota. When I moved here my partners thought I should buy a house from a surgeon leaving town, for $680,000. I just laughed. No way would I spend $680K for a house in South Dakota even with the profit I made in LV. That was two and a half years ago and it is still on the market today. Maybe I should offer $400k. But, I wouldn’t spend 400k on a house in SD. LOL.
That should be “As a doctor, I’m offfended.”
and i suppose the same apraiser will apraise it at 100k higher.if he does turn him in.
Hey everyone, has this been posted? Screech is losing his house:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060619/ap_on_en_tv/people_dustin_diamond
“I’m Dustin Diamond and you probably remember me from the hit TV show Saved By The Bell. After the show ended I decided to leave Sunny Cailfornia for the midwest. My shitty credit meant that getting a loan for a house would be tough. I began looking and finally purchsed one on a land contract. I was thrilled! Now I call Wisconsin my home.
During the past years the land around me has developed for the better and my property value went way up. Now that the house is worth a lot more they want it back. Knowing my credit is bad, getting a straight mortgage would take some time. I received a letter stating that I had 30 days to pay $250,000.00 or get out. I was not thrilled.”
http://www.getdshirts.com/the_story.php
Samuel “Screech” Powers of Saved by the Bell (1989-93), Saved by the Bell: The College Years (1993-94) and Saved by the Bell: The New Class (1994-2000)
Dustin Diamond had steady employment as an actor for over 10 years and is begging for money? Anyone with an ounce of financial sense should have been able to retire for life with that kind of income. Do I feel sorry for him? NO!
Funny!!
It gets better:
“I’m Dustin Diamond and you probably remember me from the hit TV show Saved By The Bell. After the show ended I decided to leave Sunny Cailfornia for the midwest. My shitty credit meant that getting a loan for a house would be tough. I began looking and finally purchsed one on a land contract. I was thrilled! Now I call Wisconsin my home.
During the past years the land around me has developed for the better and my property value went way up. Now that the house is worth a lot more they want it back. Knowing my credit is bad, getting a straight mortgage would take some time. I received a letter stating that I had 30 days to pay $250,000.00 or get out. I was not thrilled.”
http://www.getdshirts.com/the_story.php
The best thing for everyone, he said, would be for home prices to simply flatten out and let the rest of the economy catch up.”
Shit all the data I’v seen said it would take 16 years for wages to catch home prices.
“three-bedroom, two-bathroom house is listed for $725,000″
Hmmm… I moved to midtown Ventura in 1998 and rented a bungalow there for a year, thinking it seemed like a pleasant and friendly beach town. The 101 was bad at times but managable (it’s the ONLY freeway that really serves the area). My wife at the time was Asian. Someone left live ammo on her car. Then I saw the front page piece in the Ventura Star about the skinheads who hung out in front of city hall and worried about leaving her alone during the long long hours of commuting. Then someone carved an 18″-diameter swastika into the hood of her car. I freaked out briefly but figured it was just some crazy teenager. Then there was another front page piece when the skinheads attacked an interracial couple at the beach in broad daylight. When I asked our landlord he admitted that one of the leaders lived two doors away and had previously broken into the same bungalow we rented and spraypainted racial epithets on the walls the last time it was occupied by an interracial couple! We bought a house in Camarillo and moved in 1999 and I don’t even stop in Ventura for gas anymore. People in Camarillo thought I was being silly and didn’t believe the stories about skinhead gangs and street violence in Ventura. In fact, when I tell most white people about this they seem flabbergasted, have NO idea, and think Ventura is an idyllic place with a cutesy new urbanist downtown.
The reality is that Ventura County consists mainly of rednecks, fruit pickers who speak little English, a few who escaped LA and talk about how great it is to live in a small town and don’t notice the rednecks, and workers who spend half their time commuting to Santa Barbara or the San Fernando Valley. Thousand Oaks has two or three major employers and a few educated souls (Amgen), but the biggest employer in the county is Countrywide, the mortgage bank. Once those jobs go away, people will be leaving in droves. They already are in some cases. Where I live now in Westlake Village (the rich part of VTA county) enrollment at my daughter’s elementary school is projected to be down 17% next year. In the school newsletter housing prices were blamed foremost for the drop. This past year, my daughter’s class of 19 shrank to 17 when two families moved out of state. Although schools in Westlake and TO are very good, test scores at most schools north of the Conejo Grade are pretty poor. Anywhere within 10 miles of Oxnard also has a significant crime and pollution problem. Anybody with kids making a decision about living in Ventura on a $70K salary or Denver/Dallas/Kansas City where schools are better crime lower, housing prices 1/3 and salaries similar and choosing Ventura IS a surfer period. Oxnard, Moorpark and Simi are overbuilt despite the anti-growth (SOAR) law. Ventura County is set to crash just about as hard as Sactramento exurbia and I believe the absurd $750K McMansions in Oxnard (bad schools, bad air quality, violent gangs, and cold foggy beaches that smell like a sewer and are covered with river debris) will drop more than 60%.
Ventura does have a huge gang problem. You would not believe it, but someone of the hard core gangs are a bunch of upper middle class punks. There is gangs called the RATS who number around 400 have been there for three decades now and prey on people at night down by the pier.
“Ventura does have a huge gang problem. You would not believe it, but someone of the hard core gangs are a bunch of upper middle class punks. There is gangs called the RATS who number around 400 have been there for three decades now and prey on people at night down by the pier.
where I grew up I wouldnt worry about Ventura gangsters LOL.
> where I grew up I wouldnt worry about Ventura gangsters LOL.
Really, I used to ride my bike to work through the Humboldt Park area in Chicago. That was back when they had the riots every year on Puerto Rican Independence day. If you were white and not wearing a badge, you were fair game.
ventura may be the only city in Scal with a WHITE GANG problem.
You are one bitter dude.
Suggestion: Rent a Duffy boat, pack your GF and some good vino, and take a little harbor cruise through Channel Islands Marina next weekend. It will completely change your outlook on Oxnard and Ventura County.
Yes, the current asking prices are stupid; I was there today and saw a flipper product priced 100% over market that has been on the market for at least six months. Yes the prices will go down big. But don’t dump on Ventura County just because There are some skinheads in the City of Ventura and some stupid gangbangers in Oxnard and the farmworkers are poor.
I am actually encouraged by the fact that there is a Mexican middle-class developing in Oxnard. Yes, they are all nouveaux and obnoxious, but they are coming up and doing well. Ventura County is not a slum. Even the wankers in Westlake Village and TO and Simi are OK people, just trying to escape the hell that is Los Angeles.
And frankly, having a little fog at the beach is a relief compared to sweltering in Westlake or TO during the summer. What do you want, a thermostat set to perfection? Stay indoors or something.
10% reality, 20% exageration, 70% rationalization. I think one would be safe in saying this is by far the most negative nischaracterization of the aera one could possibly find. One can only hope everyone absolutely accepts the above as cispel and stays away.
Umm, maybe, just maybe, it’s because his wife was being physically threatened. Just a crazy thought.
Rationalization or not, but SoCal hosts the largest number of hate groups than any other part of the country.
Ummm maybe just maybe the lack of a report that matches this incident, the fact that Ventura County has had a hate crimes unit since 1969, that nearly every civil liberites and minorities rights group in the nation uniformly praises the county for its’ efforts and two of the three lowest crime cities in the nation are in the county and … oh why bother. Anecdote trumps data in these cases every time.
Unfortunately, I’ve had a similar experience in Ventura that makes me think that a 90% reality number is more like it. Back around 6 years ago, we thought about seeing how the surfing was in Ventura with 2 friends (1 is Asian). I don’t know if it was the fact we had an Asian in the shotgun seat of the truck or if the truck we had was a Toyota (I noticed later a plethora of Fords and Chevy trucks), but as soon as we pulled in to park, a couple guys who wouldn’t otherwise standout, approached and motioned for us to roll down the window. As soon as my buddy did, we all got shocked (him most of all) with a hard punch to the face, “Whites only beach. Go somewhere else!” Before any of us could react, another 4 guys started surrounding the truck. Needless to say, we left and never went back there again.
One other comment re VTA County: I’ve been tracking the number of public notice ads that contain the word “default” as in “notice of” in the Ventura Star for the past three years. Last summer, there were typically two or three matches per day, with four at most. Yesterday there were 11 and a couple of months ago I saw 20 one day but 9-12 is now typical. This is the only major newspaper and I feel fairly confident that the number of NODs has increased in VTA County by a factor of 4.5 in the past 12 months. Last year, the flippers and foreclosure sharks were snapping them up. This year, most of those guys are stuck in flips gone bad and being flushed out of the system. By fall or winter, they will be absent from the food chain and the number of foreclosures will skyrocket.
Leslie…I know you and David read this blog.
Thank you, Leslie, for finally coming to terms with what is happening.
Can you work on David a bit…get him to grasp the reality of the situation?
I believe that honesty works much better for Real Estate agents than wishful thinking.
By being honest, and stating things honestly, like you did in this article, you’ll begin to push people into doing what they need to be doing:
They need to be lowering their prices.
Phrases like ’soft landing’ just delay the inevitable, and will make the crash last years instead of a year or two.
David said, abeit a few months late- that we are “burning off the speculative excess” of this past housing market.
We can’t “burn it off” with high prices.
Just my two cents, Leslie.
Instead of sweeping this under the carpet- where it won’t fit- the public needs guidance. They don’t know why they’re homes are sitting and sitting and sitting.
Report from San Francisco: my wife and I went looking at open houses today. We sold our house a year ago without putting it on the market based on word of mouth from our realtor. We made out well and have been renting since for reasons obvious to everyone here.
We are playing with the idea that there is a “sweet spot” wherein interest rates are historically low yet some sellers are under pressure to “capitulate.” My feeling is if we wait too long, then interest rates could eradicate any savings derived from a discounted price. We intend to have this next purchase be our long term purchase and intend to utilize a fixed rate mortgage.
So, to the open houses. LOTS available in the neighborhoods we are looking at in SF. We have been keeping our eyes out for several months and the supply has recently increased dramatically. Meanwhile, decent properties have been sitting for months even after several price reductions.
We researched one property, on the market for 52 days, which has been reduced twice from an asking of $1,399,000 to $999,000! We drove by and there were a lot of lookers. We didn’t go in because parking was problematic. We will watch what happens and if any further reduction occurs, we may move.
In one of the more popular (read: sunny) and family friendly areas of SF, Noe Valley, the open house signs reminded me of one of those signposts with the multiple directional signs on it (e.g., Miami, 3115 miles; Minneapolis 2045). They were everywhere. There were many more this week than in the past several months that we have gone hunting.
At one house we went to, the realtor commented to us, “there’s a lot of properties out there.” We replied “there certainly is,” and she gave a nervous laugh. The house had only been listed for a week or so and she advised that offers “would be accepted tomorrow.” I sort of stared blankly at her and she gave another nervous laugh. As we left, my wife, who really liked the property, said we should consider an offer. I said, if so, no way will one be made by tomorrow. That’s the old paradigm. We’ll make an offer if we choose to do so when we feel like moving, not when the seller is “accepting offers.”
The next house we went to had been on the market for about 30 days, and was already reduced by $100,000 or about 8-9% of the original asking price. We were the only people viewing the home, although it was getting later in the afternoon by that time. I asked the realtor if the seller had relocated, she said yes, out of state. She asked if we owned or rented and I told her we had sold and were renting to see what happens with the market. She said, oh I expect prices to rise between 4-5% over the next year. I just shrugged off the obvious wishful thinking. Then she said, you know, summer really is a slow time, we forget that every year. I didn’t reply to this nugget of wisdom either. She then proceeded to ask who our broker was which I guess is a tactic to gauge how serious a buyer is, but which generally annoys me. I said that if we decide to use a broker, we have one. She then replied that she would only work with buyers who utilized a broker because it was otherwise “illegal or shady.” At that juncture things became - how shall I say - somewhat awkward, as my wife did not take kindly to the insult and made that perfectly clear. We headed for the door.
Based on my on-the-ground observations, I think things are going to get ugly. Personally, I think the impact is going to be almost catastrophic in economic terms. I take no pleasure in the fact that many homeowners, squeezed by ARMs, I/O’s and other economic realities will be in desperate straights. The impacts will be far reaching and the fact that this is becoming an historic buyers’ market does not provide me with cause for celebration.
However, I am not opposed to taking the opportunity presented to acquire a home in a very expensive City at a more reasonable price. I just hope it doesn’t get so bad that the middle class of this country implodes. If i were inclined to believe in grand schemes, I might see some purposeful intent in the present scenario, but of course that would be way too farfetched.
Sorry for the long post, but I wish you all the sincerest luck in housing and in life.
just wait you will get that house for 400k less in 2 years
Don’t think that because the seller’s reduced the price from $1.3mil to 999k they have come down almost 30%. In reality the $1.3mil was just a fishing expedition that comps would have never supported. 999k is probably a more realistic asking price. For right at THIS moment in time anyway.
But IMHO the market is WAY too early to make an offer. Forget the “sweet” spot. Your property taxes will be sky high dude, and the market is now in a downward trend…where it stops nobody knows. You are ABSOLUTELY catching a falling knife, and will 90% likely be underwater for at least 10 years.
Real estate is all about the monthly payment, just like when (the masses anyway) go car shopping. When interest rates continue to rise, the prices will continue to fall…making the monthly about the same. The key is though the market overshoots to the downside, just as it did to the upside. This will come to pass. And this will be the time to bite, although you will probably be told by friends (again, the masses) that buying California real estate is a big mistake.
I have been in this game for a very long time. I saw the California bloodbath of the early 80’s, and again in the early 90’s. Unless the Federal Reserve has some HUGE tricks up their sleeves, this bloodbath will be worse.
You are playing with fire. Once you bite and own this property you are stuck and shanked. This will be a ball and chain you cannot free yourself from.
Thanks for sharing the benefits of experience.
My reading of the tea leaves — and instinct — tells me you are right. We keep thinking that if this is THE house, then it doesn’t matter so long as we can afford the monthlies — and yes — the taxes. Anyway, we are pretty much engaging in a wait and see posture with a bias against taking any action.
The kindest thing you can do for yourself is probaby not look at houses for awhile. You will just torture yourself endlessly as “cute”, or even “perfect” houses pass by your looking glass. You should continue to track them on the internet, track zip codes, and general real estate news though.
You also run the risk your wife could start really getting pissy about looking at open houses endlessly, and not buying. The nesting instinct is strong. After all, all your friends have bought in, right? The in-laws are turning the screws, etc.
How about finding a good hobby for a couple of years??? lol You need a good distraction. For both of you.
Solvingadream
And you might want to read some books on the behavior of crowds. We are JUST coming off a time of extreme mania, where people bid up prices way over list, camped out at sub-divisions, and stood in line to get screwed. They were throwing money at things…very stupid money.
There are the comps you are comparing to right now! You are judging homes because they are slightly discounted off an extreme mania!
Real estate moves slowly, imbalances have to be worked out, so give it time. Several years in fact.
We are just getting started with a correction. This is the first crack in the glass. Don’t get excited. Yet.
All the best,
Solvingadream
And you might want to read some books on the behavior of crowds.
Best possible advice! The mass psychological forces behind the boom will only be surpassed by those behind the bust.
Hey SFer, check this one out, maybe think about signing up…
http://www.boycotthousing.com/home.aspx
“She then replied that she would only work with buyers who utilized a broker because it was otherwise “illegal or shady.”
You know these ancedotes about conversations with Realtors is kinda scary. I want to call BS but I keep hearing it over and over. I guess some folks have no fear of lawsuits and/or losing their license. Unbelievable
My feeling is if we wait too long, then interest rates could eradicate any savings derived from a discounted price.
Not going to happen. Any rise in rates will require a commensurate lowering in prices in order to facilitate sales.
Hey SFer! Don’t make a mistake! Do NOT buy yet, and stop looking, really. Else you’ll become inured to the prices and think you can actually just about afford it. A deadly financial mistake.
The sweet spot you talk about is actually two spots, which I’ve mentioned before on other forums and will mention again.
(1) When interest rates are high (and 6.6% is NOT high — think 9, 10%, upwards), the prices are really driven down. It looks like a crappy time to buy, unless you have cash, but so long as you can afford the payments even at high rates, you’ll b sure to get a good price on the house. We are nowhere close to that now.
(2) The real sweet spot arrives a few years later, when you refinance that high rate mortgage as soon as things stabilise and rates come back to normal. (Again, is 6.6% “normal”? I dunno. Maybe 7 or 8.)
Advantage to this method: If you get transferred, or just want to change houses, or any one of the unkowns in life strikes, you haven’t bought high and have to dump it low. Disadvantage: Delayed satisfaction, and mortgage payments that seem too high considering the “cheap” price of the house. Still…
Despite an unknown few years of interest-rate pain, you’re probably not paying any more per month than you would now if you paid less interest on a higher sales price. And BEST OF ALL, if you are like some friends I know, you are able to renogotiate that mortgage later on if rates drop.
Want an example? Friends here bought a modest place for $250k at 8%. Three years later, and two refinances as rates dropped, they were paying under 5% for the rest of the 27 years of the loan. Niiiiiiiiice house payment. During those low rate years, which are gone now, the similar “boxes” in their area sold for $400k — same payment as they originally had, but now these people have the low price AND lower rate locked in. It took patience (and luck), but I applaud them.
I repeat: Don’t buy into it RIGHT NOW. Please be patient.
Thanks for all the comments. There is much food for thought and I appreciate the insight and the considerate nature in which it was conveyed. We will be treading very lightly.
SFer, you might consider the fact that while you can always refinance your house, you can never re-negotiate the purchase price. Prices still have much further to fall. Who cares if interest rates go to 20%? That will truly crater housing prices. There’s a good chance that many of us who bailed out in the last year or two will be able to pay CASH for our “long term” home, especially if interest rates go to the moon. And, the lower the purchase price, the lower the property taxes.
duh - I thought I had seen the end of the thread, but I hadn’t. My comments are redundant.
“Ann and Ron O’Niell of Ventura are not too worried. Their three-bedroom midtown Ventura home has been on the market since March. And the price has been reduced to $659,000. After seeing so many ups and downs in the market, the couple is fairly relaxed, although they are in escrow to buy a home in Camarillo.”
“‘So it takes two months or three months to sell a house, that is what it used to be,’ Ron O’Niell said.”
The pure aggorance of these fools make me sick. The think they sell any of piece of shi& for whatever price. Welcome to the Land of Fruits and NUTS!
I have a friend that was thinking of upgrading from her townhome in Fountain Valley to a single family residents. I just mentioned to her that she should sell her home first before even thinking about moving. She actually laughed at me and said it would sell in no time. This is a complex that my husband and I would not live in when it was priced at 200k and she is thinking about getting 600k for hers and in the meantime getting a HELOC for her down payment on a new house. That was a few months ago and there was only 2 houses for sale in the complex. Now there are 20 for sale and top asking price is 525k. She decided not to move. Just the arrogance of it made me ill. The day she laughed I walked away thinking I hope she does go for it.
“Just the arrogance of it made me ill. The day she laughed I walked away thinking I hope she does go for it.”
I know exactly how your feel…being a housing bear is a thankless job. Most of the time I just keep my mouth shut, the few times I have mentioned little things I just get stunned looks like I’m nuts.
Condos and townhomes are very difficult to sell when the market reverts to the mean. Single family homes become affordable again, and townhomes are ignored. It’s only when affordabilty get squeezed and people are desperate to buy in…then condos and townhomes get multiple offers and are snapped up.
“Cindy Malecky has had her midtown Ventura home for sale since February. She isn’t surprised the market has cooled, but she cannot figure out what buyers want. ‘In my view, things are back to reality. The 2004, 2005 market was not reality,’ she said. ‘Now it seems like they are taking an especially long time.’”
“Her three-bedroom, two-bathroom house is listed for $725,000. After owning the house for 20 years, she will see a hefty profit if the house sells for that price. ‘I really thought that by now I would be packing,’ said Malecky. ‘I thought I would be out of here by fall, but I am not willing to give the house away to do it.’”
Ms. Cindy Malecky - Another typical greedy homeowner, who wants to steal money from the next poor chap to finance her corrupt ways of life. Ms. Cindy Malecky, I hope your piece of garbage rots on the MLS listing.
You dont have to hope. It will rot.
You dont have to hope. It will rot.
Some guy in Los Angeles is going to take his real estate holdings and turn them into an a stock offering. He will, according to reports, offer $1.3 billion worth of shares in an initial public offering.
What do you guys think about that?
I think this story is interesting. And I got a hunch this guy is taking this action to protect himself from a severe real estate downturn in Los Angeles and wants to squeeze as much cash out as possible before the real estate Shiite hits the fan in Los angeles
Reed the report: REIT Douglas Emmett files for $1.3B IPO
Add DEI to the put list!
Okay, so this is interesting:
http://www.ladowntownnews.com/articles/2006/06/19/news/news03.txt
Might we be getting some “repartments” in Downtown L.A.? I wouldn’t be surprised.
A POST THAT PROBABLY WON’T APPEAR ON THE OC REGISTER BLOG THAT i MADE TONIGHT…
TRUE STORY.
“Jon, I think you’re a great guy.
You know I do.
Please edit this post out.
But I have to say publicly what my heart says I have to.
There’s way too much editing going on in this blog.
There, I said it.
I know that from your point of view, it’s a business, and I respect that.
Yes, some of our submissions might not be ‘kosher.’
But you know what?
That’s what makes it interesting.
I’m going back to http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com for a while.
Let the bulls run their run.
Behind the scenes, I’m betting that this blog of yours has created quite a mess for you. And I’m sure I’m one of the people that helped create that mess.
I apologize.
But at the very same time…
…I know that LIFE is messy.
How in the world could it be that the median price of an OC home could top $634,000- while the sales volume slumped to -29.5%???
It means we’re in a time of transition.
And in a time of transitition, crazy ideas are worth just as much as supposedly normal ideas.
After all, wasn’t Bin Laden supposed to get caught before we invaded Iraq? DID THAT HAPPEN ACCORDING TO PLAN?
This little post of mine will be read amongst your coworkers, and your boss. I understand that. It will cause problems. I know that too.
It’s just that Ben Jones has never edited NOT EVEN ONE of my posts, and somehow, the world has survived.
I’ll be over there if you need me.
I’m not sure how this editing bonanza began, but it sure wasn’t the way this blog should go.
I’m just a dork with an opinion. Take what you will- or won’t.
But I will tell you this…
I’ve never lied to you.
And I never, ever will.”
I’m back, Ben.
I needed to make it local, but making it local failed.
We’ve passed a milestone, here, I believe.
THE BLOG HAS BECOME THE NEWS.
And guess what, folks, Ben’s was the very first.
Experiement finished. Question answered.
I’m back, dammit.
Thanks to Ben for being Ben.
Welcome Back! The bulls are on parade in the OC. Wait until YOY declines then we can go back with a lot of “I told you so”; until then let them screw themselves. I have a lot of family in Orange and Costa Mesa and when I bring the subject up it is met with a lot of snickers and bullshit comments. So I STOPPED - FOR NOW. Once they start hurting I will FIRE AWAY. I know they are family but they will get what their GREEDY lives deserve!
Excellent post, I 2nd Auction Heaven’s comments.
Ben’s is the first and original.
I asked someone who would know what the demographics of newspaper readers are.
They are not that desirable of a demographic and they certainly aren’t making anymore of newspaper readers.
The real news is on demand, like this blog right here.
I had another thought.
Melody and Auction were the instigators that caught Lansner’s attention. I helped with a bit of ridicule.
In the archives of Ben’s blog, there is a Q&A with Jon Lansner of OCR infamy. Here are the links:
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=248
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=277
Somebody should save these before Ben Jone’s gets a cease and desist letter from OCR.
Teasing them about being outscooped by OCWeekly on multiple stories.
That started the OCR blog. Now that articulate bears are not welcome there, time for a bit more ridicule.
All OC posters during next weekend’s bit bucket let’s do some good old fashioned ridicule for the well-deserving OC Register.
The days of multiple offers seem to have passed completely. CAR Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young said she can practically pinpoint the turning point. It was October.
_______________________
I’m going to congratulate all the posters here who, in spring of 2005, called October 2005 as the beginning of the end of this bubble. Seems Ben’s bloggers can do a much better job of forecasting the future than all these knuckleheads who likely get paid quite a bit to junk up the forecasts.
Way to go!
Yeah, I thought the same thing. There was pretty strong consensus that October 2005 was it.
I bet Miss Leslie got her info here.
C’mon posters out there claim your prize of the predicted turning of the tide.
I can’t claim a prize because I am new to the game - but I know for a fact that October 2005 was “it” in Central Florida, because I got on 3 different builders’ “6 month” waiting lists in August 2005, and all 3 burned through their lists and called me in the first week of October to let me know that my “opportunity” to purchase had arrived.
Let’s predict when NAR (and RE agents) will become extinct.
Here’s an interview with the upcoming president of NAR.
http://www.presstelegram.com/business/ci_3953204 (if link above doesn’t work)
Some soon-to-be-classic quotes:
Q: NAR has maintained for the last year that there is no housing bubble and the market will slow to a soft landing. Do you still believe we are headed for a soft landing, and just what will that mean for the market?
A: The annual Harvard study, which was just released, says as long as the economy continues to create jobs and builders trim production to match slowing demand, housing prices will keep climbing and the housing sector will likely achieve a soft landing. Major house price declines seldom occur in the absence of severe overbuilding, major job losses or a combination of the two. Fortunately there is no evidence of this across the nation’s metropolitan areas. Having said that, there will be regional differences, but for generations, housing and real estate have proven to be an incredible long-term investment.
Q: In the past year we’ve seen the introduction of the 50-year mortgage, the state (CA) eclipse the $500,000-median mark and condominium appreciation outpace that of single family homes. What’s the next big thing in real estate?
A: I’m not sure what the next big thing will be, but what I am sure of is that real estate will continue to be the single safest long-term investment people can make.
Q: The traditional real estate market is under attack from a bubble of Internet-based companies helping people sell, search for and/or purchase their own homes. There’s no question the market has become more Internet-dependent, but how far do you think technology will go in changing the way homes are bought and sold?
A: Technology has already revolutionized the real estate market dramatically. Three out of four home buyers search the Internet for their home. Technology has made the transaction more apparent and more consumer accessible and consumer friendly. However, the home-buying process is different than buying an airline ticket or a book. There will always be a role for the Realtor in the transaction.
“The annual Harvard study, which was just released…”
Isn’t this the same Harvard study picked apart by this blog a few days ago as being solidly paid for by the housing industry? What a nimrod.
I see a pattern: The NAR president doesn’t answer the question about his opinion of the housing market, he just quotes a “supposed” expert study by some clowns from Harvard. Then David Lereah pretty much repeats the same BS and all the underling realtors quote DL in their assessment of the market on their own web pages.
They don’t answer the question directly they just quote the opinion of a “supposed” expert and expect the general public to swallow this as fact.
They just repeat the “talking points” like the morons at the White House.
There will always be a role for the Realtor in the transaction.
___________________________________________________
More asshat Realtor(tm) wishful thinking…..
In the near future, buyers and sellers will decide the necessity of having a glad-handing “agent” perform their brand of third-party puffery in real estate deals.
These Realtor(tm) people have no skin in the game. The MLS is the only unique thing holding their little society together. The time for their trumped up monopoly has ended. The GlamShots and the hairdo’s are not necessary to sell a property any longer.
You need a title search, an escrow and title firm, and a mortgage broker/banker and maybe a lawyer/paralegal to complete a real estate transaction. That’s it last time I checked.
The internet will enable people to save $ thousands $ by bundling these services into a turnkey solution for a very nominal fee.
Realtors(tm) will go the way of the travel agent in the next 2-3 years.
Hmmmm….. let’s see if I can get the formatting thing worked out!
Try again:
And again…
My wife and I live in Ventura and rent. We like it very much and the only reason we would move is so that we could afford to buy a house. I’ve been watching the market fairly closely and I would say, even with Ventura’s overheated pricing, Cindy is at least 15% overpriced. Houses like her’s (admittedly based on limited info: 3 bed/2 bath) are currently selling in Ventura in the high-500’s to mid-600’s. The only thing that might justify $725 K is if she’s on the hillside and has a deck and an ocean view.
Auction Heaven in ‘07, you’re the best, man. A guy who tells it like it is. But you have to understand that the OC Register is just a business like every other business. And I believe that Jon is trying to be objective, and wants to do his best to tell both sides of this RE story. But too many of the OC Register advertisers are part of the local RE industry. When there are BILLIONS of dollars at stake, free speech can take a back seat on this bus. I believe when the FIRE gets too hot at the OC Register, Jon’s bosses will shut down the blog. Just my 2 cents.