Bits Bucket for June 8, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
November 2024 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
Another day, another drop in oil prices…
Marketwatch dot com
Futures Movers
Oil retreats on weak China imports, OPEC decision
By Eric Yep
Published: June 8, 2015 1:28 a.m. ET
Oil prices fell in Asian trade Monday, after China reported a drop in its oil imports and as the impact of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ decision to keep its production level unchanged late last week trickled through.
Investors are also expected to turn their attention to the June 30 deadline for the Iran nuclear deal that could pave the way for the lifting of Western sanctions and more Iranian oil hitting the oil market.
…
Bottom line:
More oil is being stored and more capacity to store oil is being built in the US.
—————-
New data series show more detail for crude oil stocks, storage by region
Energy Information Administration | JUNE 8, 2015 |
In an effort to better present crude oil storage capacity and use across the United States, EIA has prepared new tables as part of the semiannual Working and Net Available Shell Storage Capacity Report. The new series show crude oil stocks held at refineries crude oil in tanks and underground storage in each Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD). Previously, this information was only available at the national level.
EIA reports crude oil inventories held in four types of locations:
- At refineries
- In pipelines and tank farms, which are further classified as:
- In tanks and underground storage
- In pipelines, and other forms of transit (by rail, by water)
- On producing leases (storage on production sites)
Some of the more significant changes in crude oil storage have occurred in the Midwest, where 26% of the nation’s working storage capacity, including storage at Cushing, Oklahoma, is located. Storage utilization at Midwest refineries (as defined by PADD 2) in March 2015 reached 80%, the highest storage utilization rate observed for any month since EIA started collecting storage capacity data. Again, the refinery storage utilization rate may be somewhat overstated, as the refinery stock data include volumes of crude oil in transit by rail and water being transported to refineries.
In the Midwest, stocks in pipelines and in transit by rail and water increased from 25.3 million barrels in March 2011 to 35.0 million barrels in March 2015. This increase occurred primarily because of pipeline expansions and increased quantities of crude oil being transported by rail and water. Because pipelines must be full in order to operate, stocks held in pipelines (known as pipeline fill) are not considered in the storage utilization calculation. Utilization of working capacity of tanks and underground storage was 73% in March 2015, nearly equal to the rate in March 2011, as Midwest crude oil stocks and storage capacities increased at similar rates.
Utilization of combined storage capacity at Midwest refineries and tank farms was 74% at the end of March 2015, the highest PADD 2 storage capacity utilization rate recorded in the five years EIA has been collecting data. In absolute amounts, the crude oil stored at Midwest refineries and tank farms in March 2015 was 103.7 million barrels, slightly lower than the total Midwest working storage capacity four years before. Because storage capacity has increased, however, the March 2015 utilization rate is only about 2 percentage points above the previous high of 72% at the end of March 2011.
A few weeks ago I pondered whether crude oil storage could effectively become the new “swing producer,” that is, could crude oil prices be manipulated simply by filling or emptying storage.
From googling within EIA:
US crude oil storage capacity: 500 million barrels total
US crude oil production: 295 million barrels/day
Short answer — NO way can storage act as a swing producer, since storage can hold less than 2 days’ worth of crude oil. And I suspect other countries have even less storage.
Oxide, I do not know where that number comes from but we produce just over nine million barrels a day not 295 million. The world is getting close to producing 95 million a day. BTW, China at the end of the month will open up a new SPR and that will be very supportive of prices.
With a global oil supply glut, falling prices, massive excess production and falling demand, what does it matter?
Update: Oil Prices Down 42% YoY
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic
Get back to me if oil drops below $55. In December OPEC will cut production and oil will be $80. OPEC is almost done damaging shale oil.
never bet against black gold!
Maybe by this December. Time will tell.
You bring to mind your overconfidence in the 2012 Rasmussen poll numbers that forecasted a Romney win.
You are a liar because you know I never made that prediction. Prove it Bear or admit you like to lie.
Housing, oil…. you lost your shirt.
Remember…. Falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels is positively bullish and good for the economy.
You are a liar because you know I never made that prediction.
I also remember you making that prediction and standing by Rasmussen’s numbers.
“liar”
You’re the expert in that area.
I never said Romney would win I only said Rasmussen said it was possible and it was. So Colorado show me my prediction when I said Romney would win. I actually said just before the election it was too close to call and I never called it for Romney, this whole argument is boring since your side has repeatedly failed to show any prediction by me. So prove it Colorado or join the proven liars club.
The only prediction I made was that Obama’s reelection would be a disaster and that has certainly come true. Posting Rasmussen numbers is not a prediction by the way the final results were within the margin of error of his final poll.
Back to housing Depreciation Dan.
What did you pay for that shack you financed in 2010?
Methinks he doth protesteth too much.
Me think hedoth lie too much and fails to support his assertions too little.
You’re backpedalling Depreciation Dan.
you didn’t actually say Romney would win. but it was just as laughable that you cited Rasmussen as some type of “trend” that was going to lead to a close election. Reality is, election was not that close where it mattered. Romney conceded fairly early, OH and FL weren’t that close. And EC map was impossible after that. Unbiased people smartly interpreting state by state data saw this at least 2 weeks ahead of time. I knew it a month ahead of time.
The GOP can’t win the Presidency recently bc too many team-player GOP types can’t step back and interpret data or public sentiment without bias. The Dems, to their credit, have been cold and calculating. Guess what, Hillary is awful but she has a team of really sharp people running her campaign. If the GOP partisans don’t step up their game, they are going to get gaped yet again. Might as well start spreading prison-style right now.
And guess what, it will be bad for America. But it’s not like either party has the answers, so the best solution is to embrace the Cartoon World reality of the modern U.S.
No offense Dan, but you’re a partisan GOP hack. You probably know a lot about many things, but your interpretation of public sentiment can’t be trusted.
So Colorado show me my prediction when I said Romney would win.
Scroll down dude, Prime_is_Contained went to the trouble of digging up your old posts. Try this one on for size:
I also seem to recall that you and Rasmussen stuck to your guns (That Romney would win) until the bitter end.
“If the election was held today”, it was not. Polls are snap shots in time, I never called it no matter how you like to spin it. Neither Rasmussen nor I never made any calls on the election. Had Rasmussen I would have probably made the same call but it never occurred. We have had this same argument over and over and you or anyone have ever shown a post where I made a prediction that Romney would win. Romney stopped attacking because his pollsters had it in the bag for him, I never made a prediction and thought it was too close to call.
I did make a prediction last election cycle that the Republicans would make major gains in the Senate and that was true. Joe Smith was not around when I attached W so, I will not engage with him but I lean conservative but not mainstream republican, I will let that
P.S. and at least Joe is intelligent enough to admit I never made the call, but sorry an election which breaks 52-48 or even 53-47 is a close election, the Democratic polls initially had Obama up by almost 15 points, as the election grew nearer they got closer and closer to Rasmussen:
you didn’t actually say Romney would win. but it was just as laughable that you cited Rasmussen as some type of “trend” that was going to lead to a close election.
“P.S. and at least Joe is intelligent enough to admit I never made the call,…”
Similarly, a certain former president never had s3x with a certain former intern.
BTW, Joe if you are honest you never saw the Republicans winning back the Senate. Even after the 2012 election I saw it as a possibility. I said that if the Republicans held the line on immigration they had hope. The problem is simply the leaders of the Republican party do not want their nominee to be against either open borders or global trade deals, a Republican that bucks their will has a hard time to get the nomination but would do well in a general election. However, I am not holding my breath that will happen.
I also remember the laughable Rasmussen prediction (excuse me, suggestion?) and mocked it at the time. Rasmussen leans right, there’s nothing wrong with that, but it’s a provable fact you can see by looking back in time. There was no way Romney was going to win the Presidency. And I say this as someone who thinks Obama has been a below-avg President. (Of course, Romney would’ve been just as bad, but in different ways.)
When you’re not heavily rooting for the GOP or DEMs you can call things as they are. And there was absolutely no way a clear-thinking person thought Romney had a chance with like 2 weeks to go. Among other reasons, the Electoral College is just a disaster for the GOP. That’s the truth, there is no other way to call it.
In the abstract, I’d like to see a GOP candidate win in ‘16, if for no other reason than a slightly different view in the WH. But a) EC is heavily stacked against GOP right now and b) GOP Presidential candidate hasn’t received over 50% of the popular vote in many elections at this point. I think the last time was Bush in 1988. In 2016, that will have been a lapse of 28 years. Someone check this but if I recall correctly: Bush 92: nope, Dole 96: nope, Bush 00: nope, Bush 04: close by nope, McCain 08: LOL, Romney 12: nope. At least in Presidential politics, the GOP has ceded everything but the South and Midwest and that’s not going to be nearly enough to win the Pres. It will do wonders in the House and Senate, though.
+1
Liberace!
At least in Presidential politics, the GOP has ceded everything but the South and Midwest and that’s not going to be nearly enough to win the Pres.
If you look at the election result maps, the Republicans have a hold on the South and the Rocky Mountain states, not the Midwest. During the last six elections, the Democrats have always gotten IL, MN, MI, and WI. In the years that they’ve won, they’ve gotten Ohio and Iowa as well.
Breakingviews
Why $65 per barrel oil looks like a ceiling, not a floor
By Fiona Maharg-Bravo
June 1, 2015
Additional reporting and writing by Kevin Allison. The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.
Big Oil is too confident about crude prices. After a 40 percent rally from January’s six-year low, the momentum has been on the upside. But the current prices – $65 a barrel for Brent and $60 for WTI – look more like a ceiling than a floor.
That is not what many insiders seem to think. Some oil service companies expect mid-$70s Brent by the end of this year. Anglo-Dutch Shell assumed oil will rebound to $90 by 2018 in its $70 billion takeover of the UK’s BG Group. Some believe that the steep cut in capex costs will affect supply, including shale, and boost prices again.
But such predictions may underestimate shale’s potential. Lower drilling and pumping costs, among other efficiencies, have pushed the breakeven cost of shale down to about $60, Goldman Sachs estimates. Lower oil prices have also helped cut costs, since shale drilling is energy-intensive.
The broker sees room for further cost declines in the three main shale basins in the United States: Eagle Ford, Bakken and Permian. If these materialise, shale could reach a $50 per barrel breakeven by 2020. Costs could keep falling as drillers gain more experience with shale, which is more akin to a manufacturing process than traditional oil drilling.
…
Unemployed people don’t do much driving.
Goldman Sachs is stuck in its short positions and everyone knows it. They ignore the obvious there are a very limited number of prime locations to drill and we are quickly running out of them, the cost of producing shale oil will be going up not down as they produce from wells yielding less than half the production even if they cut the cost of drilling each well by 30%.
‘the cost of producing shale oil will be going up not down’
The rents are going down:
‘The collapse of crude oil prices has forced rents to drop more than $1,000 a month in Watford City. North Dakota’s housing units increased 10.4 percent between 2010 and mid-2014, and remains the fastest growing county in the nation’
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9061
Yes, as is the cost of drilling a single well however due to geology it is going to take two wells to produce what is now being produced with one well.
You understand down hole work and geology as much as you understand construction Depreciation Dan.
“Gas Prices Falling In Metro Atlanta
http://www.wsbradio.com/news/news/gas-prices-falling-metro-atlanta/nmYDT/
Opec may not be finished with Dan by December.
Even if OPEC cuts production and there is less shale oil being pumped, Iran will be increasing production as fast as it possibly can, and Saudi Arabia will do anything it can to harm Iran. We may be seeing low oil prices for as far as the eye can see.
With the shooting war between Saudi Arabia and Yemen showing no sign of abating, and the rising Sunni-Shia conflict playing out across the Middle East, it seems to me that oil has more upside potential than downside risk.
There is nothing better than a large middle east war for LOWER oil prices.
They all want to sell lots of oil to buy lots of weapons and ammo.
It is a good thing!
Yes.
The yes was a response to Hessel. The removal of Saddam Hussein a Sunni and then our replacement of him with a Shiite leader was like throwing a match in a puddle of gasoline, it is only a matter of time before it engulfs the entire region, any firebreak was removed when we destabilized Syria. If the neocons were not attempting to create a war between the Shiites and Sunnis than they were criminal negligent. All their actions have served to aggravate the centuries old split between Shiites and Sunnis.
There is nothing better than a large middle east war for LOWER oil prices
Selling lots of ammo may be good for our economy but it does not increase oil production, the wars will disrupt productions.
There is nothing better than a large middle east war for LOWER oil prices.
Not if supertankers can’t get it past the Straits of Hormuz due to a shooting war and inability to get insurance. And where the energy infrastructure of the contending sides has never been more vulnerable to either ballistic missiles or “asymetric warfare.”
The removal of Saddam Hussein a Sunni and then our replacement of him with a Shiite leader was like throwing a match in a puddle of gasoline, it is only a matter of time before it engulfs the entire region, any firebreak was removed when we destabilized Syria.
Agreed. The neo-cons have never grasped the concept of “unintended consequences,” especially when you overthrow the existing order and reignite ancient vendettas along dangerous fault lines.
Nobody is going to voluntarily cut production. Why would a producer just give the market away to somebody else? That’s what OPEC has realized. They don’t corner the market anymore, so they have to sell at whatever price they can get, and they will continue pumping no matter what.
They have abandoned cartel discipline in favor of a game of Beggar thy Neighbor.
I wonder what effect a complete phase-out of fossil fuel use might have on the price of oil?
The Tell
G-7 leaders set goal to end fossil-fuel use in 85 years
Published: June 8, 2015 1:29 p.m. ET
California may act as a gauge of success, says analyst
Days are numbered for carbon-emitting power plants.
By Myra P. Saefong
Markets/commodities reporter
The Group of Seven leaders agreed Monday that the world should end its use of fossil fuels by the end of the century.
“Deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required with a decarbonisation of the global economy over the course of this century,” the G-7 leaders from the United States, Germany, Canada, Japan, France, Italy and the United Kingdom said in a declaration from the meeting in Germany.
…
I was listening about it on the BBC this morning. First, they never do anything. Second, they will need about $1Tr from us in the short term.
Hopefully we eliminate plastic production as well. We need to use products which are biodegradable.
As usual, it’s collapsing demand from China that’s to blame.
Futures Movers
Oil ends under $59 on weak China imports
Published: June 8, 2015 3:11 p.m. ET
Traders await monthly reports this week from EIA, OPEC, IEA
By Myra P. Saefong
Markets/commodities reporter
& Eric Yep
Oil futures finished lower on Monday, as a drop in Chinese oil imports and the lingering effects of last week’s decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to keep its production ceiling unchanged sent prices for the U.S. benchmark well below $59 a barrel.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July crude CLN5, +0.52% settled at $58.14 a barrel, down 99 cents, or 1.7%. July Brent crude LCON5, +0.41% on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell 62 cents, or 1%, to $62.69 a barrel.
The price decline was “really a hangover from the Chinese data,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. The Group of Seven meeting was not giving oil any market-moving headlines so prices retraced Friday’s late price reversal, which was based on data showing another decline in U.S. oil-rig counts, he said.
On Monday, data showed China’s May crude-oil imports fell 11% from a year earlier. Strong Chinese oil demand has been one of the few pillars of oil support so far this year and signs of softening demand will weigh on oil prices.
…
Gasoline prices are finally getting back to normal again. Down by over ten percent since the spring price bubblet.
http://picpaste.com/pics/tmp_15048-20150608_212905-1666550014-5fruHJ27.1433826734.jpg
Is this the dawning of a new era for bonds?
Wsj dot com
Heard on the Street
Global Bonds Undergo Regime Change
The days of easy money generated by piggybacking on central-bank liquidity look to be over
The European Central Bank headquarters, right, in Frankfurt. Faith in central banks as a force for damping government-bond volatility has been severely challenged.
Photo: MARTIN LEISSL/BLOOMBERG NEWS
By Richard Barley
Updated June 7, 2015 10:47 p.m. ET
It is a brave new world for government-bond investors.
The violent moves in German bunds last week—which have seen 10-year yields move from under 0.5% on Monday to nearly 1% on Thursday, ending at 0.85% Friday—have dealt a blow to complacency among investors. Although less volatile, U.S. Treasury yields also lurched upward, rising by almost 0.3 percentage point on the week to about 2.4%.
The government-bond rally in the second half of May has turned out to be built on sand. Faith in central banks as a force for damping volatility has been severely challenged. And investors should be far more wary about entering momentum-driven trades on which everyone is betting heavily. From here, the twists and turns in economic data will be more important.
One consequence of the bund selloff is that global bond markets have lost their anchor. As long as German yields kept falling, driven by a single-minded focus on European Central Bank quantitative easing, or QE, that acted as a drag on yields elsewhere. Low German yields made Treasurys look attractive, but the gap between the two has narrowed.
Moreover, the focus could shift to the U.S. economy. With the ECB plowing on with QE, debate about Federal Reserve rate increases could become the biggest factor driving markets. Friday’s strong U.S. employment report supports that idea. So Treasurys might reclaim their traditional role as the financial center of gravity.
Greece remains a big risk to this picture. Higher yields might not persist if the market starts to worry seriously about a euro exit. Greece’s decision to delay Friday’s International Monetary Fund repayment might signal hope a deal is coming, but equally it could represent a step toward an exit from the euro. It isn’t clear that bond markets are pricing in the latter risk.
The bond selloff also could have consequences for other asset classes because it has driven up global risk-free rates. Perhaps for once, though, risky assets like corporate bonds and stocks are one step ahead. As the government-bond market became increasingly irrational, European stocks moved sideways, and credit spreads widened; investors in risk assets refused to chase government bonds down the rabbit hole.
Here, too, investors should pay more attention to fundamentals. For stocks it is the earnings component of price/earnings multiple that will now matter most; the big rerating driven by monetary loosening that allowed multiples to rise is probably over. Corporate-bond investors, meanwhile, should be watching closely for signs that companies are willing to take more risk.
The bond-market selloff isn’t all bad. A government-bond market that is less sure of itself may help temper financial risks, as long as volatility doesn’t spiral out of control.
…
We’ll see soon enough.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/06/07/this-is-what-scares-the-hell-out-of-bill-gross-as-companies-in-last-ditch-effort-sell-more-bonds-than-ever/
German bund rate rising again, which means the peripheral EU bonds are going to rise as well. Got popcorn?
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkde-10y?countrycode=bx&mod=MW_story_quote
This is the top of the housing, stock and tech bubbles. Buyers be stupid.
Don’t central banks have a floor under all of these bubbles (and even oil, for that matter)?
Just like last time?
You can add Cars, SUV’s, Flat Screens and furniture into that too.
Stupid money always buys high!
“Go ahead, finance that RV smarty pants!!”
Best. Financial. Move. EVER.
appreciation - depreciation = money in the bank !
Price appreciation = EQUITY!
And equity means LEVERAGE!
Leverage: The magic that removes the “un” from the word “unaffordable”.
AKA=OPM.
Fixt for you Poet
appreciation - depreciation =
money in the bank !negative numberIf I recall my ninth grade algebra, these kinds of equations can just as easily be reversed by adding a minus sign.
and if you divide by zero - you can make lots of weird things happen!
Right.
Which leads me to wonder, does the discount rate crossing the zero bound have a qualitatively similar effect on asset prices as a plane hitting mach speed has on sound?
For those of you who aren’t on top of basic asset valuation concepts, one of the simplest calculations to make is the value of a perpetuity:
V = P/i, where
V = value,
P = fixed periodic payment and
i = discount rate.
So my question can be restated: What happens to the value of a perpetuity when the discount rate crosses over the i = 0 threshold?
One more point here: A German bund is not a perpetuity, as there is a finite term of payments. That said, there is still an “i” in the denominator of the valuation formula for a discount bond:
B = (c+(i-c)*v^n)/i, where
where i = discount rate,
v = 1/(1+i),
n = number of coupon payments,
c = coupon rate, and the face value is (implicitly) 1.
Unless my mental math is off, this approaches 0/0 when i approaches 0 in the limit. One needs to use L’Hopitals rule to evaluate this indeterminate form (may try it at a later date when feeling more energetic!).
“ninth grade algebra”
I believe you have just proved that you didn’t complete the course.
A liberal professor is terrified of his liberal students. And after reading the monumental sock of stuff that this guy spews, he ought to be terrified.
In the words of the immortal Frank Zappa: Do ya love it, do ya hate it, there it is, the way ya made it.
http://www.vox.com/2015/6/3/8706323/college-professor-afraid
Readin’, writing and ‘rithmetic. Stick to the basics, to the facts and don’t get into all the BS, and you’ll have literate students that can function in society, students you can be proud of, not afraid of.
BREAKING NEWS!
“Experts worry that ‘phony numbers’ are misleading investors
“Experts worry about ’smoke and mirrors’ in earnings reports as stocks hit record after record
“NEW YORK (AP) — Those record profits that companies are reporting may not be all they’re cracked up to be.”
Say it ain’t so!
“As the stock market climbs ever higher, professional investors are warning that companies are presenting misleading versions of their results that ignore a wide variety of normal costs of running a business to make it seem like they’re doing better than they really are.”
Do you mean they are … are lying?
“What’s worse, the financial analysts who are supposed to fight corporate spin are often playing along. Instead of challenging the companies, they’re largely passing along the rosy numbers in reports recommending stocks to investors.”
What a surprise!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/experts-worry-phony-numbers-misleading-070222254.html
For ’tis the sport to have the engineer
Hoist with his own petard.
–Hamlet, Act 3
For even more hoisting:
One of obama’s family attack by a dreamer.
Nancy Pelosi on obamacare.
Hillary treated the same as Bill treats other women.
——————-
Dennis Hastert: When It’s a Crime to Withdraw Your Own Money From Your Bank
New York Times | 06/07/2015 | Josh Barro
Dennis Hastert has not been indicted on a charge of sexual abuse, nor has he been indicted on a charge of paying money he was not legally allowed to pay. The indictment of Mr. Hastert, a former House speaker, released last week, lays out two counts: taking money out of the bank the wrong way, and then lying to the F.B.I. about what he did with the money.
Does that make sense? Conor Friedersdorf of The Atlantic, for example, is worried that the indictment constitutes government overreach, punishing Mr. Hastert for concealing payments whose disclosure he may have thought would be damaging to his reputation, but which were not illegal.
Federal prosecutors allege Mr. Hastert was paying hush money in exchange for wrongdoing that happened long ago.
But Mr. Hastert is charged with structuring: making repeated four-figure cash withdrawals from his bank in order to avoid the generation of cash transaction reports, which banks are required to send the government about every transaction over $10,000. These reports have been required since 1970, with the intention of helping the federal government identify organized criminals and tax evaders.
To be clear: It’s not illegal simply to take $8,000 out of the bank repeatedly.
The reporting threshold has not been raised since the Bank Secrecy Act was passed in 1970, and $10,000 today is equivalent to just $1,640 in 1970 dollars. Actions by Congress have also tightened the rules around moving cash: Congress banned structuring in 1986, started requiring banks to report smaller-but-still-suspicious transactions in 1992, and added further reporting requirements in the Patriot Act, under Mr. Hastert’s watch.
Danny Hasert and his ilk have been at the forefront of the relentless assualt on basic liberties and freedoms guaranteed (ha!) under the Constitution. He made his bed; let him lie in it.
And hopefully he lies in it all alone, the pervert. Sheesh.
My guess is that he’s being sweated by the FBI to get the goods on some other players and probably making a deal. Hence the delay in arraignment.
My guess is that he’s being sweated by the FBI
In the same bathhouse that Obama loved?
In a world with a sufficiently-large number of sufficiently-complex laws, everything is illegal, and everyone is a criminal—ok, maybe not strictly _everyone_, but anyone that prosecutors choose to target.
+1. Really, it’s sort of a weak point, but Martha Stewart sure got the business for lying to the Feds.
Similar concept can be used by managers in the workplace:
- Load so much work on everyone down the chain that nobody can possibly stay on track with their work assignments.
- Clear out those you don’t like for not completing said assignments.
Hillary treated the same as Bill treats other women.
It would take one sick and blind puppy to sexually harass her.
“Hillary treated the same as Bill treats other women.”
I doubt it.
http://picpaste.com/slick.jpg
I must admit, I was a bit flummoxed by the whole FIFA thing. Like, why in bloody blue hell would the DOJ go after soccer when there are much bigger fish to fry right here at home? Then I read this:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-07/fifa-confirms-russia-will-be-stripped-2018-world-cup-if-evidence-bribery-emerges
Russia. It’s all about Russia. Jeebus, what a sick administration, loosing the dogs of the DOJ on FIFA to tweak Putin.
While Jon Corzine walks free.
Russia. It’s all about Russia. Jeebus, what a sick administration, loosing the dogs of the DOJ on FIFA to tweak Putin.
If Russia 2018 is revoked FIFA will be hard pressed to find another host who can be ready on time. Not impossible, though, Mexico did in in 1986 when narc war ravaged Colombia was stripped of its tournament.
Plenty of room in Detroit to play soccer…
I know you’re being facetious, but the USA would be a viable replacement candidate. We have plenty of large NFL stadiums that are already state of the art and won’t require upgrades and they won’t be in use early summer 2018. The only problem is that most of them have the wrong kind of playing field surfaces, but that could be easily remedied.
If it was just a matter of stadia, shouldn’t there be a lot of countries that could handle it - Italy, the UK, Argentina, etc.?
With 32 teams in the cup it takes a lot of stadiums. Some countries have them, but some are old and will require $$$ to become world class (see Brazil).
I’m sure the UK, Italy, Germany and France could host the Cup on short notice, but FIFA does want other, non European markets to host it. Should Russia get yanked they might have no choice but to go with them or maybe the USA. Mexico could also do it as its stadiums are up to date, but with the crime situation I doubt it.
Obama is a thin skinned narcissist he destroyed shale oil to get at Putin, of course he will try to use FIFA. It is lucky for us that Putin is logical albeit calculating because if he was loose cannon like Obama, we would be in a nuclear war.
Personally, I don’t think Russia is really about Obama. My guess is that Joe Biden is behind all this, with Obama’s blessing of course. Gotta protect his wastoid son’s gig, of course (Hunter, not Beau, and I am still rather ashamed I mixed the two up). But I think it goes even deeper than that. Ukraine is Biden’s baby.
It’s funny, but I seem to remember reading that Al Gore had a lot to do with the orchestration of the break-up of the Soviet Union behind the scenes back in the day. I wonder if messing with Russia/former USSR is a Vice Presidential duty?
Finally, someone who admits it was really Al Gore who ended the cold war, not Ronald Reagan.
Ronald Reagan’s policies cause the fall of communism ( including the dropping of oil prices) the only person that might believe otherwise is Al Gore, of course he believes he invented the Internet.
‘the only person that might believe otherwise’
The USSR failed because communism doesn’t work.
It lasted 70 + years before Reagan brought it down. It hasn’t worked in North Korea either but the regime persists.
Reagan didn’t bring it down. It collapsed under the weight of its own fraud and lies, which more and more people started seeing through. And the soaring costs of trying to maintain an empire that was bleeding them dry.
“The USSR failed because communism doesn’t work.”
You mean it failed to work in Russia, right? Because we are assured here day-in, day-out that it is working economic miracles in China.
I heard someone say that B Clinton was a big force behind the US trying to get the world cup that went to Qatar. Perhaps the investigation would have been less rigorous if someone else was behind the US bid.
I agree though…shouldn’t we be spending time on something else?
T-I-M-B-E-R.
http://www.businessinsider.com/skyscrapers-correlated-with-economic-doom-2015-6
It’s different in China.
So liberalism is indeed a mental disorder?
———————-
People in Blue States seek psychiatric help 50% more often than in Red States
Newsmachete | June 7, 2015
People who live in liberal states search for psychologists on Google 50% more, per capita, than people from conservative states. Vermont has the most searchers for mental health help, at 74% greater than the national average, which makes sense, since it is a far-left state with a socialist Senator, Bernie Sanders, who likes to talk about the joys of rape. People in liberal Massachusetts and far-left New York search 55% and 56% more often for therapists as well (California, which you would expect to be worst of all, is “only” 41% above average). By contrast, in Idaho, (adjusted for population size), people search 51% less often for
therapists, 34% less often in Wyoming, and 29% less in Oklahoma. There is also an astonishing 76% more therapists per capita in Blue States.
If you read the Times article about this they will be quick to say that every one needs therapy in equal amounts and it’s just that the people in Red states aren’t getting as much. I have a different interpretation. People in Blue states are more likely to be liberals, and liberals are more likely to be mentally ill. Liberals suffer from:
1) Phobias, such as fears that they are destroying the Earth (when in reality, they are only destroying America)
2) Guilt, for being white or male or having a job or earning money
3) Unhappiness with their bodies or sexuality, due to schizophrenia or gender identity disorder
4) Greed and envy, towards other people’s property
5) Anger towards people of different genders or races
and so on. Is is any wonder that they need psychological counseling more often, when their whole ideology is based various forms of mental disorders? Just take so-called “Transgenderism”. The small percentage of people who have it are clearly mentally ill, but instead of treating it like an illness, the media and educators in Blue State treat it like something that should be fashionable, and actually promote this sort of illness to others. The culture there teaches people, in order words, to embrace these mental disorders. Today is Bruce Jenner on the cover of Vogue; what will it be tomorrow, someone else celebrating the joys of schizophrenia? Paranoia? Tourette’s?
Bruce is a republican….
Red staters are too high on meth and Jeebus to care about therapy.
And banging their kids/relatives
Only the religious conservatives.
It’s amazing the behavioral possibilities that open up when Jesus will forgive you for ANYTHING.
The obvious answer is…
We need to spend even MORE money.
——————–
Baltimore: More money and more violence
The Nevada Appeal | June 7, 2015 | Guy W. Farmer, retired diplomat.
The federal government has been throwing taxpayer money at Baltimore for more than 60 years — ever since Nancy Pelosi’s father, Thomas D’Alesandro, Jr., was mayor of that troubled city (1947-59) — and what have been the results of that multi-billion-dollar federal investment in “Charm City?” You know the results as well as I do: widespread poverty and rampant violence.
There were nine murders and more than 30 shootings in Baltimore over the Memorial Day weekend, bringing the city’s homicide toll to its highest point in more than 15 years. Baltimore had 41 murders in May, the most in a single month since 1999. And meanwhile in Chicago, another city that has been a major recipient of federal largesse, 12 people were killed and 44 were wounded over the Memorial Day weekend. One of the victims was 4-year-old Jacele Johnson, who was shot in the head as she sat in a car with family members on Chicago’s crime-ridden South Side. What’s going on?
Many “progressives” blame the increasing violence in these big cities on racist and/or trigger-happy cops and believe the solution is to spend even more of our tax dollars on a panoply of social programs designed to lift people out of poverty.
However, that’s exactly what’s been happening in those cities over the past 50 or 60 years, and the result has been more poverty and more violence.
Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings — Blake and Chief Prosecutor Marilyn Mosby, both of whom are young African-American women, blamed police for recent rioting and violence in that city following the death of 25-year-old Freddie Gray while he was in police custody.
Prosecutor Mosby filed felony charges, including second-degree murder, against six police officers, three of whom are black. The mayor is black, the prosecutor is black, the police chief is black and the police force is racially mixed. Nevertheless, city officials left the police department out to dry in the investigation of Gray’s death. And of course the U.S. Justice Department is on the scene “to help.” Good luck with that.
Writing about Baltimore in Newsweek (yes, it’s still alive), Michael Tanner of the Cato Institute noted President Obama recently proposed “massive investments in urban communities” to address issues of crime and poverty.
“It’s not a matter of money,” Tanner replied. “We tried that,” adding Baltimore was a major beneficiary of the president’s huge economic stimulus plan.
According to Tanner, Baltimore received $1.8 billion worth of stimulus funding (taxpayer dollars, that is), including $467 million for education and $24 million for “families;” $838 million went to Zip Code 21201, which includes the dangerous Sandland District. Can anyone tell me what we taxpayers received in return for our “massive investments” in the city of Baltimore?
.
Why don’t the homo sapiens erect a few cultural centers to palliate neanderthals?
Many “progressives” blame the increasing violence in these big cities on racist and/or trigger-happy cops
Many people blame cops the police for the violence that they inflict on the population. I doubt that you could find many people who blame trigger-happy cops for violence committed by others.
2B -
You gotta live in a city like Chicago to really understand how bad it is- The touristi like the bean and other sites - the folks like me who have lived here for a few decades have seen a slow decline into the abyss.
As Dante said -
“The darkest places in hell are reserved for those who maintain their neutrality in times of moral crisis.”
and….
“All hope abandon, ye who enter here!”
This place continues its march of immoral and decadent criminality in the name of saving as Rummy notes “the chiiiiiildren”. What a shill and what a mess.
Ch*t cago has not had a republican mayor since the 1930’s and look where it rots today.
Did i say: I hate it here?
Did I say: Don’t move here - you won’t like it.
I’ve heard good things about the Frontera Grill, though.
” Michael Tanner of the Cato Institute noted President Obama recently proposed “massive investments in urban communities” to address issues of crime and poverty.”
Wikipedia:
“The Cato Institute is an American libertarian think tank headquartered in Washington, D.C. It was founded as the CHARLES KOCH FOUNDATION in 1974.”
2B, you don’t even try to hide who signs your paycheck anymore, do you?
Does this mean that it is not true because it came from a source of which you don’t approve?
The mindset of liberal.
And he doesn’t see the irony of bigger and bigger government which drove up the cost of college so he had to take out these insane loans. He will forever vote for the candidate who promises bigger government.
Of course, he could have gone to a “lesser” and cheaper college, community college for two years, joined the army, night school while working, etc.
But that would have been “beneath him”
———————-
Why I Defaulted on My Student Loans
New York Times | June 6, 2015 | LEE SIEGEL
Years later, I found myself confronted with a choice that too many people have had to and will have to face. I could give up what had become my vocation (in my case, being a writer) and take a job that I didn’t want in order to repay the huge debt I had accumulated in college and graduate school.
Or I could take what I had been led to believe was both the morally and legally reprehensible step of defaulting on my student loans, which was the only way I could survive without wasting my life in a job that had nothing to do with my particular usefulness to society.I chose life. That is to say, I defaulted on my student loans.
As difficult as it has been, I’ve never looked back. The millions of young people today, who collectively owe over $1 trillion in loans, may want to consider my example.
It struck me as absurd that one could amass crippling debt as a result, not of drug addiction or reckless borrowing and spending, but of going to college. Having opened a new life to me beyond my modest origins, the education system was now going to call in its chits and prevent me from pursuing that new life, simply because I had the misfortune of coming from modest origins.
Forty years after I took out my first student loan, and 30 years after getting my last, the Department of Education is still pursuing the unpaid balance. My mother, who co-signed some of the loans, is dead. The banks that made them have all gone under. I doubt that anyone can even find the promissory notes. The accrued interest, combined with the collection agencies’ opulent fees, is now several times the principal.
The Department of Education makes it hard for you, and ugly. But it is possible to survive the life of default. You might want to follow these steps: Get as many credit cards as you can before your credit is ruined. Find a stable housing situation. Pay your rent on time so that you have a good record in that area when you do have to move. Live with or marry someone with good credit (preferably someone who shares your desperate nihilism).
When the fateful day comes, and your credit looks like a war zone, don’t be afraid. The reported consequences of having no credit are scare talk, to some extent. The reliably predatory nature of American life guarantees that there will always be somebody to help you, from credit card companies charging stratospheric interest rates to subprime loans for houses and cars. Our economic system ensures that so long as you are willing to sink deeper and deeper into debt, you will keep being enthusiastically invited to play the economic game.
Borrowing to attend a private university to become a writer? What could possibly go wrong?
Well he got a free education, courtesy of taxpayers.
He should have gone to a state university, where taxpayers pay about half the cost.
I am acquainted with a young woman who borrowed 100K to learn cartoon voice acting. Needless to say, she is unemployed.
Heck, even Julliard grads strike out, and they’re the “elite”.
Europe is seeing a growing backlash against establishment political parties that serve as de facto adjuncts of the banksters and globalists. This is going to restrict Frau Merkel’s ability to put German taxpayers on the hook for endless bailouts of the PIIGs’ lenders, which could hasten the EU’s financial reckoning day.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/08/germanys-anti-islam-pegida-makes-surprise-gains-in-first-election-bid
German taxpayers are already on the hook for Germany’s bad bank loans and financial gambling - Greece is just the tip of the iceberg.
Don’t forget expensive alternative energy projects. Have to keep the Greens in the coalition happy.
Central banks are losing control of financial markets.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-07/central-banks-are-losing-control-financial-markets
Why would any rational investor want to put money into investments that will make them poorer on a purchasing power basis in the long run?
That one is easy to answer: because there is no investment available to them that appears to offer a reasonable risk-reward ratio, so it is preferable to choose the guaranteed loss of a small amount of principal while invested in government bonds offering a small negative real yield?
Q. What is the first thing a public union goon does when he retires with a 90% OT spiked pension with free medical for life after 25 years of working in a long term democrat control city/state in which unions control the government?
A. Retires to a right-to-work and low tax city/state.
—————————
The best place to retire isn’t Florida
Hadley Malcolm - USA TODAY - June 8, 2015
Phoenix, Denver and Colorado Springs are among the top 10 best cities to retire, according to a Bankrate.com survey out today.
The full list includes:
1. Phoenix metro area, including Mesa and Scottsdale
2. Arlington/Alexandria, Va.
3. Prescott, Ariz.
4. Tucson
5. Des Moines
6. Denver
7. Austin
8. Cape Coral, Fla.
9. Colorado Springs
10. Franklin, Tenn.
Arizona cities showed up three times in the top 10 due to unparalleled weather and low property taxes, says Chris Kahn, research and statistics analyst at Bankrate.
“It’s just a great place for a low-maintenance, outdoor type of lifestyle,” he says. Plus, “your dollar is going to stretch further in Arizona.”
The worst cities to retire include New York City, Little Rock, Ark., New Haven, Conn., and Buffalo.
Remember the ILLANNOY couple a few days ago who bought a home in Naples in anticipation of retiring in about 15 to 20 years. Yep - that be the pair - the woman works for the State of ILLANNOY and looking at a nice big fat pension on which to suckle for the rest of her life in a nice nabe in a nice town (expensive as it is) in the sunny state of FL.
Meanwhile back in real ville - where do the schlubs who live on SS reside?
I bet it ain’t any of the ‘nice’ retirement areas listed by 2B!!
Have a nice day.
The schlubs who live on SS in Florida reside in rundown trailer parks and in places like Port Richey, New Port Richey, Holiday, Ft. Myers and other similar venues.
“Unparlelled weather”
I didn’t know that weather had a conservative bias.
“Low property taxes”
Mogadishu has awesome weather and no property taxes. And it didn’t make the list?
Worst cities?
NYC and New Haven? Unionized public service employees, or competing against the banksters for housing/food/entertainment/etc”
Buffalo? I’m guessing that is 100% due to weather.
Little Rock? WTF? No that Little Rock is heaven on Earth, but I’ve seen dozens of places out here in BFE that are worse. DFW and OKC just for starters.
I wonder if ALL that debt lead to divorce…
———————
How I’m Digging Out of $222K of Divorce Debt Without Filing for Bankruptcy
Credit.com - Gerri Detweiler - 6/8/2015
Robert says his wife chose the worst possible time to ask for a divorce. “It was right at the beginning of the recession,” he says and the couple was already saddled with debt as well as an underwater home. “I just wanted to bury my head in the sand,” he says. “I didn’t want to look at bills.”
But with multiple credit card companies and two mortgage lenders clamoring for payment, Robert (who asked that we not use his full name since his divorce case is not yet final) knew he had no choice but to find a way out. He decided to “hit this head on” and has since made remarkable progress paying off his debt.
When Robert and his wife split up, their liabilities included:
$84,000 in negative equity on a first mortgage.
$70,000 in negative equity on a home equity line of credit
$8,800 on one credit card
$15,000 on another credit card
$9,700 on a credit union credit card
$18,000 in IRS debt
$17,000 to a flooring company
The grand total? $222,500.
In fact, he was able to settle most of his debts for less than the full balance, except for the credit union debt which he chose to pay in full, a balance with one card issuer who wouldn’t negotiate which he also paid in full, and the flooring account which remains unpaid due to an unresolved dispute (and is beyond the statute of limitations at this point).
Robert knew that canceled debt can result in a big tax bill when a lender files a 1099-C reporting the unpaid amount as “income.” He talked with a tax professional to see if he could avoid those taxes by claiming the insolvency or Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act exclusions, but he didn’t qualify. So when the lender for the home equity line of credit offered him a settlement he could live with, he asked them to postpone it until the following year so he could spread out the tax liability. (He made small payments in the meantime.) Still, the taxes he had to pay on canceled debt were steep and pushed him into another tax bracket. He wound up raiding part of his 401(k) savings to pay off the IRS.
But he’s much more cautious now about taking on debt and protecting his credit rating.
He pays everything early. “I am one payment ahead on my car payment,” he says. “If you look at my payment history now I’ve paid (everything) on time in the last three years.”
Although he would never want to relive his ordeal, he learned a lot in the process.
“I survived and feel much better now that I am almost debt-free,” he says.
He talked with a tax professional to see if he could avoid those taxes by claiming the insolvency or Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act exclusions, but he didn’t qualify.
If he didn’t qualify due to insolvency, then he had other substantial assets; if he was insolvent, then he really should have taken advantage of the bankruptcy code.
I don’t understand why he wouldn’t qualify on the mortgage and home-equity debt at least, under the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act.
“…..settled his debts for less than the full balance……”
AKA……..Deadbeat.
My question. Were these debts the TOTAL debt of the couple, or just his half?
For the record, the -fixr got stuck with 100% of the family/marital debts. Plus $1100/month in Child Support (out in Flyover). And everyone got paid back 100%, plus interest, and on time.
(As explained by my lawyer…….”Yeah, by law she is responsible for 50% of your debts. But if she refuses to pay, you have to take it back to court, and pay me. You will win. Then you actually need to try to squeeze blood from the turnip.”
“It will cost you half of what she owes you to take it to court, and win the judgement. Then you will have to pay someone else to actually get it. Assuming she has anything to recover”
And that’s how guys get stuck with 100% of the marital debts, while the women get to walk.)
And why the -fixr filed for divorce.
She made the mistake of making the divorce less expensive than staying married and putting up with her BS..
All relationships end when the eff you are getting is not worth the eff you are taking.
Many times those balances are loaded with arbitrary fees and penalties so I won’t cry a river for the credit card balances. I will say I commend him for taking on his debt responsibly instead of just washing it out VIA bankruptcy.
The key sentence here is…”Although he would never want to relive his ordeal, he learned a lot in the process…”
Many people who go through BK don’t feel the pain of working to pay off debt and are doomed to repeat what got them there in the first place.
“Git out of debt, AND STAY OUT.”
This is one very important point I keep hearing: If you get married, debt racked up by one party is the responsibility of the other. The law sees you as one unit. I’ve heard multiple accounts where the financially responsible party gets stuck with a very large bill.
You can be as financially responsible as you want, but if your partner racks up 100K in credit card debt, that’s your responsibility by law.
Getting a prenup is the only way to address it, it seems to me.
Oldster FBs crushed by housing debt.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/39c19ef44eaa46888423ae1072226596/more-older-americans-are-being-buried-housing-debt
The European vacations and boob jobs WILL BE PAID.
Lindner had bought the house for $330,000 in the late 1980s. But he’d refinanced to pull out money to invest, swelling the mortgage to $680,000. Lindner tried to work out a modified mortgage, but his bank foreclosed instead. He and his wife sought bankruptcy protection, rented an apartment and slashed their spending.
West Virginia natives Jim, 67, and LaRue Carnes, 63, moved to Sacramento, California, in 1978 and bought a house for $54,000. For 33 years, Jim worked as a newspaper reporter and editor. They refinanced their mortgage several times and pulled money out of the house and took on higher mortgage payments.
If you paid your mortgage off, it means you probably did not manage your funds efficiently over the years. It’s as if you had 500,000 dollar bills stuffed in your mattress.
^^ this is my favorite recurring comment on this blog. i love that it’s a vertabim quote from the former chief ECONOMIST (!!!) of NAR.
First time I’ve seen that and thought, “No one is that dumb, right?”
Wrong.
thank you obama housing bubble v2.0
—————-
2015: Year of subprime comeback?
Yahoo Finance - Susannah Lee - 6/8/2015
As the housing market continues to stabilize, a possible trend seems to be re-emerging, the demand to invest in subprime loans. “We are beginning to see the opening up of credit and I think that’s a trend that we’re going to begin to see,” said Brad Friedlander, head portfolio manager for Angel Oak Multi-Strategy Income Fund (ANGLX), a Morningstar rated 5-star fund.
To be resilient from the Federal Reserve’s impending interest rate hike, the money manager is looking for opportunities within fixed income including legacy subprime real estate mortgage backed securities. “Most of our attention are in credit and credit investments,” Friedlander said.
“2015 will mark an inflection year for non-agency mortgage backed securities to make a comeback as a fixture in the fixed income marketplace,” said Friedlander. “That’s where I think as an investor you can pick up income and you can pick up yield.”
Did Koch Industries put your office on a dozen posts a day quota?
obama housing buuble v2.0
Subprime loans making a comeback
Record deficits
Wars with end
Government spying on every conversion and email
Bankers still not in jail
John Corzine still on the beach with hookers and cocaine
And your silly liberal retort?
Your typo is actually accurate - Wars with end. The biggest think Obama did was wind down W.’s incredible acts of stupidity. But insofar as Obama blamed Bush for the economy he inherited, Obama will have to take the blame for whatever condition he leaves the country, and if this bubble pops on his watch, it won’t be good.
Wars with end.
You mean wars ending badly. Easy to end a war by losing.
Give it a rest man! Constant Koch-o-ising.
It’s time for me to go to work, but before I leave I want to drop into the Bits Bucket another post that will in turn spawn some craziness:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/08/another-model-vs-reality-problem-national-weather-offices-canada-a-case-study-with-national-and-global-implications/
Ah, yes. The power.
2brony’s got the day shift covered today.
Ralph Nader on Hillary:
http://peakoil.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=71447
Ha! Missed the right post!
————-
Run Hillary Run!
The democrats deserve everything they have coming.
————————-
Nader says that Hillary Clinton was the only one for the Libya war, that the defense dept and everyone was against it but she pushed it through.
He says she convinced the Obama admin it would be an easy topple. But that it was a mistake and it destabilized the whole region.
Nader says that as a senator, Hillary “never met a weapons system she didn’t like.” He says she overcompensates, for being a woman, by being militaristic and “macho.” And Nader makes the argument that this a general theme with women in American politics, that they think their gender is perceived weakness and so they tend to be war hawks to compensate for that — rather than encouraging more peace, so counter-intuitive to how one may assume females in leadership would be, actually MORE war hawk than men.
I’m enjoying each “normal” day before the Fed’s insane keynesian policies catch up with us.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-06/literally-your-atm-won’t-work…
Run Hillary Run!
The democrats deserve everything they have coming.
————————-
Nader says that Hillary Clinton was the only one for the Libya war, that the defense dept and everyone was against it but she pushed it through.
He says she convinced the Obama admin it would be an easy topple. But that it was a mistake and it destabilized the whole region.
Nader says that as a senator, Hillary “never met a weapons system she didn’t like.” He says she overcompensates, for being a woman, by being militaristic and “macho.” And Nader makes the argument that this a general theme with women in American politics, that they think their gender is perceived weakness and so they tend to be war hawks to compensate for that — rather than encouraging more peace, so counter-intuitive to how one may assume females in leadership would be, actually MORE war hawk than men.
It is coming…we just don’t know when.
Insane deficits that will never be paid back, promises of more FS to the FSA army that can not be fulfilled, destruction of our manufacturing base, an administration that makes up laws it wishes it had and ignore laws that it does not like…
———
Credit may still be available. But it will be useless. No one will want it. ATMs and banks will run out of cash. Credit facilities will be drained of real cash. Banks will put up signs, first: “Cash withdrawals limited to $500.” And then: “No Cash Withdrawals.”
You will have a credit card with a $10,000 line of credit. You have $5,000 in your debit account. But all financial institutions are staggering. And in the news you will read that your bank has defaulted and been placed in receivership. What would you rather have? Your $10,000 line of credit or a stack of $50 bills?
You will go to buy gasoline. You will take out your credit card to pay.
“Cash Only,” the sign will say. Because the machinery of the credit economy will be breaking down. The gas station… its suppliers… and its financiers do not want to get stuck with a “credit” from your bankrupt lender!
Whose credit cards are still good? Whose lines of credit are still valuable? Whose bank is ready to fail? Who can pay his mortgage? Who will honor his credit card debt? In a crisis, those questions will be as common as “Who will win an Oscar?” today.
But no one will know the answers. Quickly, they will stop guessing… and turn to cash.
Our advice: Keep some on hand. You may need it.
It is coming…we just don’t know when.
The good news is that we won’t see it in our lifetimes.
So thought the people of Venezuela, Argentina, USSR, Ukraine, Zimbabwe, Thailand, etc. in our lifetimes…
So that makes it OK, right?
Try this link instead to the Bonner article: “Literally Your ATM Won’t Work.”
http://bonnerandpartners.com/weekend-edition-literally-your-atm-wont-work/
I’m not going to read the whole article but will respond to the “literally your ATM won’t work” part.
This is why it’s so important to keep cash, and lots of it. There is a gigantic push by banks and the government to discourage cash transactions period. It is about taxes and bank fees. Banks want a cut of every single financial transaction which takes place in this country, and the government wants to be able to track them for tax purposes.
FIGHT IT, people. USE CASH. You should have access to a large amount of cash in case of emergency. I cannot emphasize this enough, but the sheeple won’t do it. They will continue to mindlessly swipe cards, pay fees, and baaaaaahhhhhhhhh all the way to their slaughter.
I think the drug trade is too important/integral to the economy - and yes, to the banking system - to ever allow a full implementation of a cashless society, the wet dream of totalitarians.
At least one billionaire gets it: policies set up to faciliate the .1% amassing wealth and power into their own greedy hands is setting us up for societal unrest.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-08/billionaire-cartier-owner-sees-wealth-gap-fueling-social-unrest
Bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes WILL SOLVE THIS.
Look at all the progress obama is making…
Really? Not one bad word to say about billionaires who want to buy the government? Is it because you work for them?
Here is a hint for you.
The less government controls, the less government billionaires can buy and the less government can corrupt.
Just look at:
Healthcare
Housing
College
For a few examples.
Now imagine these industry if government was not involved EXCEPT to enforce fraud and GAAP laws.
They would WORK
They would be AFFORDABLE
And billionaires would NOT CONTROL THEM.
The less government there is, the more toxins industry can pump into the air and water. Step one: kill the government. Step two: poison everybody else.
So explain why total government controlled communist countries (what was the USSR, North Korea, China, etc.) are the most polluted places on earth?
So explain why total government controlled communist countries (what was the USSR, North Korea, China, etc.) are the most polluted places on earth?
There’s no contradiction there between those facts and what Dman wrote.
less government there is
Communist nations hardly stand for less government and that is the contradiction.
No, there’s no contradiction. Dman wrote that lack of government regulation will result in more pollution. That doesn’t imply that big, Communist governments are necessarily good for the environment.
No, he wrote “the less government there is” which is exactly what I quoted, he did not use the word regulation. Communist governments do not have to regulate the means of production because they own the means of production, hardly less government.
You’re missing the point. He made a statement about small government. He didn’t say anything about big government.
You miss the point, big government will not save you from pollution. Thus his statement that the size of government has a clear relationship to the amount of toxins pumped into the air and water is simply false, an honest small government is far more likely to protect you from pollution than dishonest big government, the use of torts often is much more effective that big government agencies that get captured by polluters, his quote:
“The less government there is, the more toxins industry can pump into the air and water.”
He never said that a big government will necessarily save anyone from pollution.
Now you’re introducing the tort argument. How can torts be used to be curb pollution from cars and trucks?
the use of torts often is much more effective
Key word is often. I did not say always nor did I say that no environmental laws make sense. However, the tort of trespass was used long before the EPA existed to deal with the poisoning of water and air. Would it be effective against car pollution, no I do not think so.
P.S. but when government starts regulating a beneficial gas that is critical to plant development and is presently in the atmosphere in insufficient quantities for maximum plant development like we have now, you know government has gotten way too big or people are trying to use the issue to make government way too big.
“billionaires who bought the government?”
~~~~Just a little edit.
We are told, “Here is an option.” And we are told, “There is an option.” I wonder if there are any other options.
Probably, but, hey…what are Kim and Kanye up to?
Is this the Big One on Wall Street?
“Thar she blows!”
Marketwatch dot com
Bulletin Obama denies saying the dollar was too strong
Market Snapshot
U.S. stocks edge lower amid global selloff
By Anora Mahmudova and Barbara Kollmeyer
Published: June 8, 2015 10:06 a.m. ET
China imports tumble, weighing on crude prices
Federal Reserve/Flickr
U.S. stocks declined slightly on Monday, feeling the pressure of a selloff in European equity markets. The main indexes were trading lower for the third consecutive session.
The S&P 500 SPX, -0.20% fell 4 points, or 0.2% to 2,088. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.13% slipped 32 points, or 0.2% to 17,816. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.33% declined 15 points, or 0.3%, to 5,053.
…
A stronger dollar will be the mechanism by which America’s mess will be spread around the world. And those real estate markets relying on foreign investors will feel the pain too.
I’m in my 40’s but think a lot about retirement. It comes from seeing my mom, a nurse who has worked my entire life, even now as a nurse manager at a retirement home and she is 75. She can’t afford not to work, but she is a spender.
I think having the monthly nut down to very little is key for a feeling of freedom in retirement.
I think about a safe place to live, one that wouldn’t require me to use a lot of heat in the winter (I think Green govt will make it cost-prohibitive) so wood stove, etc, cost-efficiency built in would be helpful.
On my list is
1) inexpensive climate control
2)low property taxes
3)proximity to fun
4)walk-ability helpful
Anyone have other ideas to add?
I am interested in the live on less, little house movement. I think a small community with very small, well engineered homes for seniors would be really interesting.
I saw this ad on my local craigslist and it has got me thinking about about it lately, and then the idea of it being a very inexpensive way to live, especially if you could shut it down and leave if you wanted.
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/wan/5045438587.html
I’m still pretty young and very far from retirement, planning is a hobby.
This article was interesting, too.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-24/best-place-live-united-states-here-are-9-maps-consider
Stay as far away from public unions and democrat controlled cities/states as you possibly can if you want to enjoy your retirement and keep more of what little you will have.
I should add that I’m interested in self buy and build, not some planned community. Property taxes and climate matter the most in the long term.
Stay as far away from Republican-controlled cities and states as you can, such as Kansas. They have cut services to the bone. If you need police, fire or an ambulance, they will either be very slow to respond or not respond at all, due to severe budget cuts.
Much safer in Detroit, Philadelphia, Camden, Newark, Cleveland and Chicago!
C’mon, blaming decaying rust belt on just democrats is a bad rap. Both parties had a hand in selling out our industrial base.
There is so much more to the death of America cities than that.
Insane and unbroken corrupt rule by the democrat party for generations.
Public unions, which are the largest supporters of democrats, being rewarded with sweetheart contracts that have bankrupted cites.
Liberals implementing every expensive liberal idea to include destroying public schools, destroying public safety and rewarding those who vote the right way with more free sh*t
And I could go on.
The funny thing - around every bankrupt and depopulated liberal city are booming suburbs. Usually run by republicans.
One word: Kansas.
Insane and unbroken corrupt rule by…
Public unions, which are the largest supporters of democrats…
Liberals implementing every expensive liberal idea …
Once again, all of this goes on in the more prosperous cities like Boston, Seattle, etc.
Ah, Detroit. Cold, lots of cement and police, Good call.
Maine would be great in so many ways, proximity to travel (beach, cities, etc) cheap property taxes, cheap property. But I think the cost of heat during the winter would make it only usable half time.
Your goal should be to become debt free with a paid for easily maintained house in a place you’d like to live. Another consideration is access to good medical care. The older you get, the more important that is.
A low overhead life is a key to freedom.
“A low overhead life is a key to freedom.”
True, the key.
Agree on all the retirement criteria, retired early myself 3 years ago, no house but debt free. Would add that so far as medical care goes if possible it might be best to go with an arrangement where the insurer and provider are one, my GF and I both are with Kaiser Foundation and that has worked well…reasonable copays and no arguments over what is covered. Have read too many horror stories about people who thought they good coverage and then receive six figure bills following a surgery, etc. because the insurer decided not to pay them….In some cases the bills have been from doctors they never met but who evidently made a brief appearance in the operating room.
Definitely do not want to spend my retirement fighting this sort of thing so I’m not moving outside the Kaiser service area unless I can find something similar elsewhere…but in the meantime like the area I’m in EXCEPT for the ridiculous house prices.
How about just a small house in a small town. There is no need to go to those overpriced “tiny” houses.
I would consider that Cracker Bob, but was thinking more about cutting costs, like property taxes. I realize we pay out-of-whack prices in NJ compared to most, but still, it is one cost you can’t control.
Most tiny houses are often put on wheels to keep them deemed temporary. Thus not taxed, at least not like a real house.
I wouldn’t want a tiny/tiny one. Not even sure I would want one, but it intrigues me. Very easy upkeep. Pack and leave. Land would be the only investment.
This article got me curious:
http://seniorplanet.org/tiny-houses-the-next-big-thing-for-seniors/
Thanks for the note on proximity to Medical care DWkunkel, I will add that to my list
What you are describing is an RV.
They are very affordable, when buying used.
Low property taxes? Depends on what your definition of “low” is.
Out here in BFE, we have what some consider “low property taxes” At least on houses. Cars/boats/RVs? You get raped yearly on them. By supposedly “low-tax” Republicans.
(As the latest state tax fiasco illustrates, Republicans are only interested in low taxes for rich people and their businesses)
This is offset by:
-High sales and gasoline taxes
-The extra wear and tear on your vehicle caused by (now, thanks to tax cuts for the 1%ers) poorly maintained roads
-The unreported and untracked property crimes, to preserve the myth of the “low crime suburbs/Flyover states”
-Zero public services, thus creating more of item #3
-Zero public transportation (you gotta have a car, unless you live in a trendy (aka expensive) loft or rehab close to the metro downtown.
Buy a trailer and live in the Arizona desert like a lot of retirees do. Live in a campground up north in the summer.
“Anyone have other ideas to add?”
Yes. Rent for half the monthly cost of buying.
On my list is
1) inexpensive climate control
2)low property taxes
3)proximity to fun
4)walk-ability helpful
The White House
Also realize houses have carrying costs. Utilities, maintenance, taxes and the like. I was looking at an article about some of the most expensive houses in the US, and what struck me was how expensive the yearly carrying costs (climate control, taxes, staff) would be. A paid off, relatively inexpensive (for tax purposes), and low carrying cost house would be a positive addition.
Crushing. Housing. Losses.
Realtors. Are. Liars.
If you really want to annoy a Realtor, call them Real-La-Tors.
I have the habit of doing that from living in Florida for many years, but the NAR has asked Realtors to correct people from adding the extra syllable.
I’ve decided to keep the extra syllable.
“Realtors. Are. Liars.”
You can say that again.
Realtors. Are. Liars.
Putin, in an interview with an Italian newspaper, says the US and NATO are the aggressor not Russia:
“US military spending is higher than that of all countries in the world taken together. The aggregate military spending of NATO countries is 10 times, note – 10 times higher than that of the Russian Federation. Russia has virtually no bases abroad. … We have dismantled our bases in various regions of the world, including Cuba, Vietnam, and so on. This means that our policy in this respect is not global, offensive or aggressive.
I invite you to publish the world map in your newspaper and to mark all the US military bases on it. You will see the difference.”
http://www.corriere.it/english/
A retort would be:
We have been invited to put bases in these countries. So sorry you were kicked out of your host countries.
and
American spend less (as a % of GDP or % of government budget) on defense than Russia spends on defense. So sorry your economy sucks.
But
I would rather have Russia and America as allies. We have much in common and have common interests - if only we had some leadership.
And yes - America f*cked up the Ukraine.
The main problem with comparing defense “budgets”
-Our personnel costs are twice as high. And personnel costs are probably over half the budget.
(Hard to tell exactly how much. Exactly how much of the “Operations and Maintenance” budget is paying (expensive) contractors to do the stuff that we used to have soldiers do, or refurb/repairing worn out equipment?)
Personnel costs drive a lot of decisions. Third/fourth generation fighter aircraft may be cheaper than the F-22 and F-23, but we can’t afford to pay for the pilots/mechs (plus the additional aircraft carriers, in the case of Navy aircraft) it would require to maintain the 6000 or so fighters it would take to maintain aerial supremacy.
So we have the Fifth generation F-22/23, bought at a high cost, which are intended to fight and win when out numbered 5-1.
Total fighter aircraft (Air Force and Navy) = 2207. Of which only 300 or so are F-22s/F-23s. This number is shrinking due to retiring worn out F-15s/-16s and F-18s.
Russia = 1066
ComChina = 769 (and growing)
Now, if you just let China redraw the map per their interpretation, and require everyone in the South China Sea to request Chinese “permission” to sail/fly there, and/or let Russia use the excuse of “protecting Russian minorities” (of which most were placed there by Russia after the locals were shot/starved out by Stalin) to re-annex Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic States, you can save a lot of money.
The US is no angel, but boy howdy, neither is Putin. The US isn’t annexing bits of its neighbors at least.
Different groups evolve under different evolutionary pressures. The centuries of warfare in Europe culminating in WWI and WWII shaped those populations. That’s one reason historically warlike people are very peace-oriented nowadays. Russia is interesting that they lost tens of millions in WWII and they’re still quite ornery. Despite Russia’s losses being taken in a defensive war, that would - should - have also shaped the population’s appetite for violence too.
Australia’s housing bubble exceeds even ours.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/06/08/australias-largest-housing-bubble-on-record-in-4-charts-sydney-melbourne/
Wow. Switzerland was a surprise.
Aus never let there bubble pop, they will be a good example of what happens if you let it go on, and on, and on.
Dallas editorial piece slams Cruz on climate change
“If Ted Cruz wants to be president, then I have an invitation for him: He should spend the next year not campaigning but instead cleaning mold out of homes and hauling and burning debris along the Blanco River.
The reality is that there is a profound disconnect between the politicians of Texas and the 27 million Texans who increasingly feel the effects of climate change. Texas is getting hotter and drier before much of the rest of the country, and that only makes storms worse as they defy nearly every model. The science is clear; only the politicians are fuzzy.
There really isn’t a scientific argument to be had over this. Up at Texas Tech — not exactly a hotbed of radical leftism — Katherine Hayhoe is the director of the Climate Science Center. She explains it this way: The hotter the atmosphere gets, the more it retains water, which leads to drought. The hotter the atmosphere gets, the more it retains water, which leads to torrential storms.
…Economists with BBVA Compass put the storm damage in Texas at $550 million. That money comes out of the pockets of everyone: in the form of cash, insurance premiums, taxpayer dollars and increased consumer prices.
Much like energy itself, money is never destroyed; it just changes form — and pocketbooks. Politicians like Cruz are the ones making out like bandits, pandering to big-money donors while getting millions of Texans to either suffer the damage or pay for it or both. “
Spencer has the latest satellite data out we are still much cooler than 1998. CAGW is the biggest hoax in the history of modern science. We cannot set a real record even in an El Nino year.
Spencer is wrong. Latest NOAA data clearly shows warming is continuing: http://cdn.phys.org/newman/csz/news/800/2015/5570eb9c11b37.jpg
Sorry, I trust NOAA and virtually the entire science community on this. Spencer is an outlier.
http://judithcurry.com/2015/06/04/has-noaa-busted-the-pause-in-global-warming/#more-18991
Spencer is wrong. Latest NOAA data clearly shows warming is continuing:
Is this the newly-adjusted NOAA data-set—you know, the one that removes the pause from the data?
Satellite data is the hardest to fake and thus the most reliable and it shows no warming. However assuming for argument’s sake that the NOAA data was reliable it does not support the AGW models since we should have had about 1 degree F warming over the twenty year period and we have about .04 F, AGW is the biggest hoax in modern times.
Yes - because we never had droughts or floods before:
Global cooling
Global warming
Climate change
And only bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes can solve it!
http://www.drroyspencer.com/
These cities seem to have a pattern.
Hope and change for the youngest voters. But since they voted overwhelmingly for Hope and Change - may they enjoy it!
Don’t worry - Baltimore and Detroit are now affordable for the yuts!
————-
Millennials Have No Hope Of Buying A Home In These 13 US Cities
Zero Hedge | 06/08/2015 | Tyler Durden
In “This Is What Happens When A Millennial Tries To Get A Job,” we highlighted 1) high youth unemployment (U-6 at nearly 14%) and 2) the failure of America’s university system to prepare new entrants for the job market, on the way to painting a rather grim picture for America’s newly-minted college graduates.
We’ve also been keen to emphasize the fact that the “strong” labor market is anything but, as wage growth is essentially non-existent and upside “surprises” benefit from the now ubiquitous “vanishing worker.” Given this, it’s no surprise that many of America’s best and brightest find themselves serving food and drinks after graduation even as they owe an average of $35,000 in student loans, debt which is curtailing homeownership — or at least delaying the process.
Given the above, it’s not surprising that in many large US cities, buying a home is simply out of the question for most millennials, even assuming they have saved up 20% for a down payment. Bloomberg has more:
For weeks, Albuquerquedan has been challenging someone to “find where I said that”, regarding multiple people recalling his predictions of a Romney victory.
Tired of that plaint, and liking data and queries, I went looking. Results are below.
In several cases, he says very clearly that he trusts Rasmussen more than the other polls, and that Rasmussen shows Romney ahead.
In other cases, he calls very clearly for a Romney victory, but adds a weasel-phrase such as “if the election were held today”—making the prediction easy to wiggle out of down the road.
Feel free to review and offer your own conclusions…
40 comments from Albuquerquedan mentioning Rasmussen results in the timeframe from 2012-05-01 through 2012-10-31:
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7259#comment-2062248
( this, “Very creative accounting, deficits of $1 trillion every year tell the real story Bush was assaigned the cost of TARP when it was paid back Obama receive the benefit You can\ t ignore fiscal 2009 since Obama and his Congress added to the spending Since then the growth of spending has been subdued but from a high base 24% of GDP is a very historically high level of spending and that is what we are doing now Finally, about the polls, I think Rasmussen is the most accurate His daily polls have Romney ahead and since undecided usually break to the challenger I am confident if the election was held today Romney would win Of course, when you are talking maybe a 52-48 election, four months is a long time ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2062248
DATE: 2012-07-13 07:59:23
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7289#comment-2069040
( this, “Yet if you look at the Rasmussen polls Romney is now up by about 4% on a national basis and the swing states look nothing like the MSM polls Obama\ s favorability rating is 44% which is the number that a president usually get in actual votes in the Fall If the election was held today, there is no question Romney would win Of course the election is not being held today But with average earnings up only 2 cents an hour this month over a third of the new jobs being temp and the rate going to 8 3 I am not seeing what will change for the better ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2069040
DATE: 2012-08-03 08:19:24
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7289#comment-2069220
( this, “You are hoping?BTW, those October surprises just are not as useful as they used to be By election day 40% of the vote is already in, due to the increase use of early voting\ absentee voting etc I follow Rasmussen as the best pollster You do not find the wild swings in his polls and his record for accuracy is the best He has Romney slowly building the lead And I think today is a classic example why Taken as a whole the rise in the unemployment rate is going to resonate more with the average voter than the creation of the jobs in one government measure and the decline of jobs in the other Yes the stock market was up a couple hundred points, I think more on a rumor that Germany was willing to go alone with QE over there than on the employment number, but that resulted in oil going up $4 a barrel which means 10 cents a gallon at the pump Which do you thing lucky ducky is going to consider more important? Particularly, when the average wage of Americans was up only 2 cents an hour last month Around 75 cents a week \(average person working less than 40 hours aweek\) does not cover food prices going up So what can Obama do with a little over six weeks to turn this around I just don\ t see it Yes, Romney reminds me of some of the anal attentive people I work with on law review but in the end his supporters will turn out in greater numbers than Obama\ s supporters who supported him with vigor in 2008, but now are playing video games in their parent\ s basement since they do not have a job ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2069220
DATE: 2012-08-03 13:57:11
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7298#comment-2070978
( this, “http:\ \ www nytimes com\ interactive\ 2012\ 08\ 08\ us\ politics\ 08poll-results-documents htmlThis is the data behind the data of a recent NY Times poll and I call BS They seem to consider virtually all of the registered votes as being \ likely voters\ despite a 60% turn out in U S being very good I will stick with Rasmussen ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2070978
DATE: 2012-08-08 10:57:03
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7298#comment-2071059
( this, “Rasmussen does that very well But remember Al Gore lost the electoral vote but won the popular vote Republicans do better in the electoral vote than the popular vote since they win more low population states which still have two senators and thus get those two votes ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2071059
DATE: 2012-08-08 15:10:43
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7320#comment-2076183
( this, “Rasmussen which had Obama up by two on Sunday before you allocated the undecided now has him behind Ohio is 45-45 which means Romney wins with undecided and he had 45-43 lead in Florida , ditto I trust Rasmussen based on experience I remember the Walker election and the the polling Yes, by the end the betting site had the winner correctly determined but by then the argument was only over the margin True Fundies do not gamble but they do vote ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2076183
DATE: 2012-08-21 10:07:25
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7345#comment-2082719
( this, “A real poll with a proven track record not a bunch of kids living in their parent\ s basement betting money they do not have:The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 44% of the vote Four percent \(4%\) prefer some other candidate, and six percent \(6%\) are undecided ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2082719
DATE: 2012-09-06 07:44:25
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7356#comment-2085413
( this, “After the way the democrats under cut Bush II in Iraq, they have no argument here To call this a crisis is an overstatement, it is just a continuation of attacks by Muslim fanatics Are you a little upset because Ronmey is now back ahead in the Rasmussen poll? ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2085413
DATE: 2012-09-13 07:09:40
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7356#comment-2085546
( this, “Yea Obama inflate away my mortgage He is destroying the country but helping me I see this as a desperate attempt to stay in office if you think the FED is independent you believe in the tooth fairly Of course, now that he is done this he will have to release oil from the SPR to keep gasoline from going through the roof but it will not work for long and will endanger our security since his raids on the SPR have left us poorly prepared for a true supply disruption Rumors are already being floated on the stock market He would not be doing this if he was not plenty scared and he should be Rasmussen: 46-45 Romney, when the undecided and others are split up means a 52-48 win for Romney If the election was held today that would be an electoral landslide for a Republican a ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2085546
DATE: 2012-09-13 10:25:42
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7357#comment-2085826
( this, “Depends on how much you drive per year but hybrids do make sense for some people However, cars like the volt would need ten dollar a gallon gas to make sense due to the high cost to purchase and limited range I think if you look at the sales, you will see I was right when I said they would not take off, if the immediate future NGVs will be mass produced long before them under the Romney administration it increasing looks like Obama started the week a head by 5% before you allocated the undecided and now:The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote Two percent \(2%\) prefer some other candidate, and five percent \(5%\) are undecided See daily tracking history ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2085826
DATE: 2012-09-14 07:11:50
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7363#comment-2086761
( this, “Just shows how useless that measure is Rasmussen has it 47-45 Romney today While not all the polls may not have Romney ahead, all the polls have shown that Romney has been moving up and the DNC convention bounce is being lost The fact that the gaming site is not moving in the other direction shows that it is just a site for idiots ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2086761
DATE: 2012-09-17 06:58:13
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7364#comment-2087194
( this, “I think it is pretty desperate when you try to ignore a poll like Rasmussen which has a history of being the most accurate because it has Romney up This is a very close election and will go down to the wire The odds are just nonsense and show that the people betting know nothing about how elections work ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2087194
DATE: 2012-09-18 07:06:18
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7364#comment-2087222
( this, “The electoral college favors republicans just ask Gore Rasmussen has the swing states favoring Romney One major bettor such as George Soros could totally distort the bets Since the democrats and their friends in the press seem to be making such a big deal over this, I wonder if something like that is occurring We would not have QEIII unless the Fed saw a lot of bad economic numbers coming out, that is not going to be helpful to the campaign Finally, instead of the horse race lets focus on Obama\ s record Unemployment high, slow growth record deficits, and as many soldiers dying in Afghanistan as were dying in Iraq and Afghanistan combined after the surge, hated just as much in the Islamic world, this calls for re-election? ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2087222
DATE: 2012-09-18 07:35:06
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7364#comment-2087233
( this, “BTW, Rasmussen and the swing state polls:In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 47% of the vote and the president is supported by 46% Three percent \(3%\) are not sure, and four percent \(4%\) are undecided ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2087233
DATE: 2012-09-18 07:45:33
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7364#comment-2087276
( this, “Are you aware that of the top 11 political polls, ONLY Rasmussen has Mitt ahead? Most of them have the election close and none have them have a better accuracy record than Rasmussen Remember also undecided tend to break to the challenger ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2087276
DATE: 2012-09-18 08:28:33
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7366#comment-2087646
( this, “The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 46% of the vote Three percent \(3%\) prefer some other candidate, and four percent \(4%\) are undecided See daily tracking history ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2087646
DATE: 2012-09-19 07:05:52
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7376#comment-2090241
( this, “Scientivic poll tape bounce is over:The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide Three percent \(3%\) prefer some other candidate, and five percent \(5%\) are undecided See daily tracking history When “leaners†are included, it’s Romney 48% and Obama 46% Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question Beginning October 1, Rasmussen Reports will be basing its daily updates solely upon the results including leaners ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2090241
DATE: 2012-09-26 06:42:09
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7410#comment-2097455
( this, “I would not predict the outcome either with two debates and three weeks left and the numbers being close However, Rasmussen will get it right Today here are the numbers:The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47% Two percent \(2%\) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent \(2%\) are undecided See daily tracking history Thus, if the election were held today Romney would win The swing states are swing states because they tend to vote like the rest of the nation With a two point win even before you allocate the undecided which break for the challenger, Romney would win most all of them ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2097455
DATE: 2012-10-16 07:08:46
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7411#comment-2097878
( this, “I will stick with the proven professional The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48% One percent \(1%\) prefers some other candidate, and two percent \(2%\) are undecided See daily tracking history ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2097878
DATE: 2012-10-17 07:05:16
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7413#comment-2098279
( this, “On the political front: The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47% Two percent \(2%\) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent \(2%\) are undecided See daily tracking historyTwo non-poll tea leaves 1 gold is weak, the election of Romney would be a short term negative for gold due to his position on helicopter Ben In the longer term, until interest rates turn positive real term, I expect gold to continue to rise and I don\ t see that happening for a while 2 I think even more telling is the Fox News ratings are rising and MSNBC are dropping There is a strong and I think unfortunate tendency for people to only listen to news stations which support their opinions Thus, since more people are turning to Fox, I think it is logical to assume more people are ready to vote for Romney ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2098279
DATE: 2012-10-18 07:08:17
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7413#comment-2098361
( this, “Scdave, it does not increase their electoral votes but it does increase the chance the electoral votes will be for Romney As far as that vote, women will decide it and men will decide it Democrats will win the women\ s vote and Republicans will win the men\ s vote This happens every cycle The key is by how much each side wins Right now Gallup has the dems winning the women\ s vote by a narrow margin and Republicans winning males by a large margin I have not seen a breakdown of Rasmussen\ s polls I trust him more If he ever finds Romney ahead by five prior to allocating undecided, I would call the election right now since it would be virtually impossible to make up that big of a gap now ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2098361
DATE: 2012-10-18 08:46:55
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7413#comment-2098367
( this, “Actually I do have the breakdown for Rasmussen:The president leads by four among women, while Romney is up by 10 among men ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2098367
DATE: 2012-10-18 09:08:25
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7413#comment-2098548
( this, “Why would Fox\ s viewership be rising in the United States but not in Ohio and Iowa, you really are reaching? In fact, logic would tell you that since the Red states were already satuated with Fox viewers so the most likely place to be picking up audience is the blue and purple states Look if you could pick voters like you pick a team and you had the same on both sides, which is what a tied polls means:You would pick white voters over minority voters because history shows they are much more likely to vote You would pick wealthy voters over poor voters for the exact same reason You would pick old voters over the young for the exact same reason You would pick women and men but there is not a large gap between their voting patterns and historically that was not the case but I think a lot of male voters stayed home the last few election cycles due to unappealing candidates But even within that group you would pick married women over single women and guess how married women vote? Pro Republican Thus, it is very clear that Romney has the historically better voters and thus even a tie is not a tie However, he has a two point lead in the Rasmussen poll and now a 7 point lead in Gallup so he is not tied Clearly, the last debate has not helped Obama Like I said Wednesday, Obama bet the farm making Romney an unacceptable candidate, every debate just makes him more acceptable Obama can win a debate on style but as his record gets laid out, he loses votes ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2098548
DATE: 2012-10-18 15:17:10
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7413#comment-2098577
( this, “Sorry Rio, they are tracking polls You babble Not all the days are post debate but the Rasmussen poll counts two days which were post debate out of three, although I would count it as 50% because one day had both post and pre debate results ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2098577
DATE: 2012-10-18 16:09:54
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7420#comment-2099830
( this, “But one more point and this election is over:The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46% One percent \(1%\) prefers some other candidate, and two percent \(2%\) are undecided Other than brief convention bounces, this is the first time either candidate has led by more than three points in months See daily tracking history ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2099830
DATE: 2012-10-23 07:24:56
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7420#comment-2100054
( this, “Yea, that his why he is up by 4 in the Rasmussen Poll Obama\ s anger at the end of the debate was because he knew he lost the debate He needed to paint Romney as a loose cannon and he failed ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2100054
DATE: 2012-10-23 13:45:23
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7421#comment-2100168
( this, “The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46% Two percent \(2%\) prefers some other candidate, and two percent \(2%\) are undecided This is the second straight day with Romney enjoying a 4-point advantage Prior to that, with the exception of the convention bounces, neither candidate had led by more than three points for months However, it is not clear whether this represents a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise See daily tracking history ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2100168
DATE: 2012-10-24 06:56:13
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7421#comment-2100299
( this, “Yea we all know there were no cell phones in 2008, Funny how Rasmussen was within a half point of the final result ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2100299
DATE: 2012-10-24 10:09:39
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7421#comment-2100389
( this, “All taken into account:All Rasmussen Reports\ survey questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that insures appropriate geographic representation Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel After the surveys are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2100389
DATE: 2012-10-24 12:27:24
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7421#comment-2100415
( this, “Or you could see the unskewed polls and see a Republican landslide But Rasmussen has a record and I see no reason to take out the most accurate pollster in the country ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2100415
DATE: 2012-10-24 13:22:07
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7421#comment-2100248
( this, “Colorado, there is no way that Romney is going to win the country by 4 and not carry Ohio and win the election Yes, I can see Romney winning 50 5 to 49 5 and losing but not by four The last poll from Ohio from Rasmussen had it 49-48 Obama but that would not include the latest data and would not allocate undecided which historically break to the challenger The daily national polls sets the trend and the swing state polls lag but catch up later This is only because of the methodology in reporting the results The swing state data may be based on a weeks data while the national is a three day average ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2100248
DATE: 2012-10-24 09:17:46
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7421#comment-2100261
( this, “Actually, Rasmussen now has it 48-48 Yes, it matters where the 4% resides but Ohio is a swing start they have a history of voting like the majority of Americans Thus, logic is clear there is virtually no chance Romney could win the county by 4 and not carry Ohio Otherwise they would not by Ohio they would be CA or VT a safe democratic state ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2100261
DATE: 2012-10-24 09:29:35
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7423#comment-2100957
( this, “Game changer:President Obama and Mitt Romney are now tied in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows the president and his Republican challenger each earning 49% support One percent \(1%\) likes another candidate, and two percent \(2%\) are undecided \(To see survey question wording, click here \) ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2100957
DATE: 2012-10-26 09:11:13
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7423#comment-2101038
( this, “Well even this year he seems to be the most accurate, no wild swings A few months ago, he seem like an outlier to some but now most all the polls seem to be very close Why did the polls change so radically? I do not believe that so many people changed their minds A few days ago, we had a poll changing PA but I said that I would believe it when Rasmussen confirmed it and he never did Until I find some reason to change, I think it is best to go with one accurate poll since averaging inaccurate polls does not really make for better accuracy than using one historically accurate poll ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2101038
DATE: 2012-10-26 11:30:50
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7425#comment-2101202
( this, “The polls have Obama rattled, that kind of comment will lose more votes than it gains People that like their president to speak like that aren\ t even registered to vote The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46% Two percent \(1%\) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent \(2%\) are undecided This is the fifth consecutive day that Romney has been at the 50% level of support He has enjoyed a three- or four-point edge on each of those days See daily tracking history ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2101202
DATE: 2012-10-27 07:23:10
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7425#comment-2101333
( this, “\ Ten days from Election Day, Obama and Romney are tied nationally But the president still appears to have more pathways to reaching the required 270 Electoral College votes \ No, they are not in the better polls Rasmussen and Gallup So the whole article\ s premise is wrong Obama might win a 51-49 national Romney vote but to believe that Obama is going to lose the popular vote by 4 and still win is believing in the tooth fairy Swing states have a tendency to vote like the national percentage, you might be able to change that a little with hard work but not by the numbers we see today Of course, more than a week is a lifetime in politics so it could change but I would be more nervous to be in the Obama campaign As far as the storm, no one even talks about the possibility that the storm just keeps heading east and does not make land I would say there is a five percent chance that is what happens ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2101333
DATE: 2012-10-27 13:12:04
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7427#comment-2101460
( this, “A change in leadership would make small and medium business leaders feel more optimistic which would lead to more growth Chance of that, while if you see this poll and the fact that old people vote more reliably means the chance of that increase daily:The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47% One percent \(1%\) prefers some other candidate, and another one percent \(1%\) remains undecided See daily tracking history The president wins support from 86% of Democrats, while Romney has 90% of the Republican vote Among unaffiliated voters, it’s Romney by 11 points The generation gap remains huge Obama has a big lead among those under 40, while Romney has an equally sizable lead among older voters ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2101460
DATE: 2012-10-28 07:43:27
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7428#comment-2101779
( this, “The Republican ground game is catching up to the democratic ground game in Ohio:The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 48% One percent \(1%\) likes some other candidate, while another one percent \(1%\) remains undecided \(To see survey question wording, click here \) ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2101779
DATE: 2012-10-29 08:51:19
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7428#comment-2101854
( this, “1 I never said that global warming was just a function of solar cycles I argued that the AGW models were wrong and did not properly account for all the natural cycles adding to the warming Six years ago people disputed it, now virtually everyone admits that the models did not 2 Not sure what my alleged argument that debt is money even means However, three years ago, I argued that the wholesale printing of money would hurt not help the middle class and now there is widespread agreement on that 3, Yes, I do believe in Rasmussen and the record for that pollster supports my belief Interestingly while Rasmussen was treated by an outlier just a few months ago, the other polls have continued to get closer to the Rasmussen results, demonstrating once again the accuracy of his polling, but if you do not like the polling use Gallup it is even worse for Obama CNN just before the election will move even closer to Rasmussen just to keep some credibility, just you watch 4 Unfortunately, no energy source is even close to fossil fuels in efficiency since we are running out and the inputs to produce it are increasing but it still beats solar in price by a factor of two ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2101854
DATE: 2012-10-29 10:57:23
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com?p=7430#comment-2102321
( this, “Gallup has been historically known as a liberal pollster So this republican bias is a joke The MSM media\ s polls have been getting closer and closer to Rasmussen and Gallup as the race has progressed by next week there will be little difference ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2102321
DATE: 2012-10-30 11:54:39
Thanks for doing this.
This does confirm what I remember: That he wouldn’t shut up about how Romney was going to win, even thought all polls except for Rasmussen said he was going to lose.
That he denies saying this rubbish leads me to only two possible conclusions:
1) He is a paid shill
or
2) He is deranged
Not one comment with me predicting the election, they all were in the context of people trying to say that the election was over in February of 2012 when it was not.
As Mathguy said in August when you tried similar evidence and a few of my other posts from 2012:
Comment by mathguy
2014-08-04 11:38:07
All you are showing is that Dan is correct about not predicting anything. It just looks like he was saying “at this time in the polls, Romney is ahead.” Not one of those says “Romney will win.”
So you just wasted your time showing that Dan is being truthful.
Comment by mathguy
2014-08-04 11:39:07
And I happen to disagree with Dan on a bunch of stuff as you can look up in my history.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-08-04 11:45:16
I would not predict the outcome either with two debates and three weeks left and the numbers being close. However, Rasmussen will get it right
Excerpt from above was from your posts and Rasmussen did get it right, just before the election (day before), he called it too close to call and I agreed with that prediction and have posted it on this site numerous times. So you can claim that I predicted the outcome when I just pointed out what Rasmussen was predicting but you cannot show one post where I said Romney would win on election day because I never did. I am not shy in making my own predictions so that should have shown you that I never thought Romney had it in the bag while he may have thought he did. However, I rejected the group think that he could not win.
I have about three posts with information from Nov. 2012 which are not posting but in 2012 I was arguing against polls and betting sites that had the election preordained and Obama up by double digits. I posted Rasmussen to show that a credible pollster did not agree, but I never predicted the election since I could not figure out whether the electorate would look more like 2008 or 2010, in 2014 I was sure it would look more like 2010 hence I made a clear prediction of Republican gains but I underestimated just how successful the Republicans would be.
this, “I think it is pretty desperate when you try to ignore a poll like Rasmussen which has a history of being the most accurate because it has Romney up This is a very close election and will go down to the wire The odds are just nonsense and show that the people betting know nothing about how elections work ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2087194
DATE: 2012-09-18 07:06:18
From the list and it shows what I was arguing against the belief that the election was over, Obama did not win in a Reagan type landslide that is for sure but that is what the left was predicting in 2012, at least what their polls were predicting particularly in the Winter of 2012 which I rejected by citing to Rasmussen.
+1 for putting in all the effort to call him out on this.
Re: the couple of thanks posts: most of the credit here should actually go to Mike Martinet; I made use of his excellent Housing Bubble Blog Comment Search to generate this post, and then just massaged the html by hand to re-format it…
Really and you ignore the key quote that was made in November of 2012 and I showed the board last August:
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-08-04 13:14:01
BTW to anyone who is fair this is the key comment I made, that comment was made on November 1, 2012, obviously I had made no prediction before then and no one can show one past that date:
I have not called this election because Obama could win a 49(Romney)- 48 (Obama election) election.
losses.
Edgewood, WA Housing Prices Fall 12%
http://www.movoto.com/edgewood-wa/market-trends/
Of course here is another quote from me within the list that shows that I never predicted Romney would win although I rejected the contention he could not win, I WOULD CALL THE ELECTION RIGHT NOW, clearly I had not called it and in fact never would since my prerequisite for calling the election was never met:
The key is by how much each side wins Right now Gallup has the dems winning the women\ s vote by a narrow margin and Republicans winning males by a large margin I have not seen a breakdown of Rasmussen\ s polls I trust him more If he ever finds Romney ahead by five prior to allocating undecided, I would call the election right now since it would be virtually impossible to make up that big of a gap now ” )’
COMMENT ID: 2098361
DATE: 2012-10-18 08:46:55
Can this same method be used for the day when ADan denies that he ever said that China’s GDP was growing by 7% a year?
It is a clear prediction by me and I was right in 2014 and will be right in 2015.
And the truth?
China Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Grew 7.4% in 2014, The Lowest Rate In Nearly A Quarter Of A Century”
*FYI*- Chinas GDP growth rate is still falling
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/08/chinas-economic-weakness-continues-imports-and-exports-fall
Falling prices are what we need.
Yes, thanks for proving I never said what they claim I said. I do not use the word liar easily but when you have made the assertion and it has been disproven earlier and then you make it again, you can not argue mistake or error, it is a lie.
“For weeks, Albuquerquedan has been challenging someone to “find where I said that”, regarding multiple people recalling his predictions of a Romney victory.”
So where is the post that he did?
I have heard “if the election were held today” used by the media a bunch and never considered it a prediction.
I stopped reading after a few posts so maybe I missed it but you used a lot of space there not to have an actual post by Albuquerquedan saying Romney would win.
For the guys: Bradley, he’s a cool dude and he knows what’s going on. I see a bright future for him…
http://i.imgur.com/Vhdi3i2.jpg
LOL!!!! Priceless. Must be goon’s nephew.
So, after deciding that ALL state employees are “essential” (what, nobody in the state government is employed due to “Waste, fraud, and abuse???”) , the Kansas Senate decides to:
-Raise the state sales tax .4%
-Eliminate the food sales tax deduction on the poor/elderly/handicapped
-Raise the tax on smokes 50 cents/pack
-Eliminate the personal property and sales tax deductions for the wretched refuse, keep it in place for agriculture, “religious organizations”, “business to business” commerce.
But it’s not a “tax increase”. It “eliminates loopholes”. For the wretched refuse.
While keeping the loopholes for the “producers”.
Of course, most Kansans will buy in. To do otherwise would be to question Republican dogma.
In the meantime, one waits in vain for all of the “green shoots” that were supposed to be generated by “Trickle Down/On” tax policy.
+1. Verily, continuously shrinking government and continuously shrinking taxes will solve all of society’s problems. Jobs will rain down like manna from heaven.
Once Kansas’ government has shriveled to the size of a pea, Google, Intel, HP, Chevron and Disney will all leave California for the browner pastures of Kansas. Employer-paid 4WD vehicles will be the norm once Kansas’ unmaintained streets turn to gravel.
It doesn’t sounds as if the taxes have been reduced much. They’ve mostly been shifted from high income people to low income people.
Yep.
See tax (and User fee) policy in the USA, 1986-present.
The 1%ers lobby for “user fees”.
Then when the government actually tries to charge them user fees for the bizjets, they call out the paid lapdogs of the NBAA to kill them.
“$100/flight for ATC charges? Outrageous! A fuel tax would be “fairer!”
Then they fight the fuel taxes, at least on their bizjets. but don’t mind seeing gas taxes go up on the wretched refuse.
Funny…..they don’t mind paying EU user fees when they fly to London, Paris, Rome, etc, etc. I guess buying off politicians in other countries doesn’t “pencil out”.
Property tax increase = rent increase for “homeowners”.
Cuz, you never truly “own” yer home.
Another American “fable”, distorted to benefit the financier class, at the expense of the wretched refuse.
Back in the agricultural days, it made sense that you would want to own your farm, vs. sharecropping someone else’s.
Farmland is (theoretically) an income generating asset.
Today’s McMansion? It only produces “income” if:
-Buying (and assuming the liabilities of ownership) costs significantly less than renting.
- It “appreciates” in value more than the rate of inflation.
“Value” is affected by other ways. Availability of jobs that actually pay something. The price you pay for a house in a “good” school district, vs. the cost of sending the kid(s) to a private school. Commute length/distance/time. Local taxes.
Out here in BFE, there are all kinds of little towns 200 miles away from the closest metro area, where awesome early 20th Century houses are going for dirt cheap, because they are too far away from decent paying jobs, and the cost of rehab/updates are too high, relative to the local pay scales. No matter how “low” the property tax rate.
You gotta sell it for more than the purchase price plus carrying costs combined (taxes, interest, maintenance) if one wishes to turn a profit on a flip.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/06/08/is-this-why-u-s-treasuries-are-diving/
The global bond market swoon wiped out $1.2 trillion in value since April. Bonds with long maturities suffered the most. The 10-year Treasury Note Price Index lost 3.2%. The 30-year yield, at 3.1% currently, is still very low, but it’s the highest since October 2014. And the 30-year Treasury Bond Price Index has dropped 9%.
“After all, the potential for losses is now greater than at any time on record, based on duration levels for $50 trillion of debt tracked by Barclays Plc.,” Bloomberg reported.
There are numerous reasons for this scenario – a very benign scenario where the greatest credit bubble in history winds down gradually, in small steps with many ups and downs that give the “smart money” time to reposition, rather than suddenly and all at once.
And today we learned of another reason.
Over the last few years, any illusions we might have nurtured that our financial markets are fair have been destroyed piece by piece by a relentless and consistent series of scandals: Libor rates, precious metals, stocks, commodities, foreign currencies…. They were all caught up in massive manipulation schemes.
“And the 30-year Treasury Bond Price Index has dropped 9%.”
Just since April, right? (My recent 15%+ loss calculation goes back to the 2015 high…)
Another FB sop story that shows why the government shouldn’t meddle in the housing market.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/06/08/they-put-a-face-on-the-90s-homeownership-push-then-they-lost-their-home/
Classic
Guy went bankrupt, got divorced, and lost his home to foreclosure. But he is certain home ownership beats the hell out of renting, because he could afford to buy a big ass house with his subprime loan that he never would have been able to rent.
This guy is the poster child for FHA lending!
I suspect that with the exception of PBear and maybe a few others on this site I may be one of the more ’senior’ folk. I have to say that LBJ was pathetic, Nixon a horror show, Carter just, well…..a bit to southern fried for my liking…..Clinton - yikes…..BUT this guy Obama…. Is the worst by far… just pathetic - Item in point he had a long time to come up with a “comprehensive strategy” and still ISIS presses on ……Wake me up when this nightmare is over please!!!
KRUEN, Germany, June 8 (Reuters) - President Barack Obama, reprising a phrase that caused uproar in Washington last year, said on Monday the United States does not yet have a “complete strategy” for training Iraqi security forces to reconquer territory seized by Islamic State fighters.
Speaking to reporters after meeting Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi on the sidelines of a Group of Seven (G7) nations summit in Germany, Obama said more progress was needed to stem the flow of foreign fighters into Syria and Iraq.
All countries in an international coalition waging an air campaign against the Sunni Islamist militants were ready to do more to train Iraqi security forces if that would help.
“We want to get more Iraqi security forces trained, fresh, well-equipped and focused and (Prime Minister) Abadi wants the same thing so we’re reviewing a range of plans for how we might do that,” Obama told a news conference.
“We don’t yet have a complete strategy because it requires commitments on the part of the Iraqis as well about how recruitment takes place, how that training takes place and so the details of that are not yet worked out.”
Obama was flayed by domestic critics last September after saying “we don’t have a strategy yet” to combat IS fighters in Syria after they beheaded a U.S. journalist on camera.
Western strategy in Iraq has come under fire again in recent weeks after Islamic State militants captured the city of Ramadi despite coalition air strikes designed to halt their advance and reverse their gains. Witnesses said Iraqi government forces abandoned their arms and fled.
However Obama and Abadi both said at their meeting they were confident that Islamic State’s success in Ramadi would be just a short-term tactical gain.
Abadi said Iraq and its allies had won many rounds against IS and the loss in Ramadi was only temporary. He urged the international community to help prevent the militants from profiting from oil smuggling.
Obama deflected questions about sending U.S. ground troops back into Iraq, focusing instead on training Iraqi forces. Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Iraqi Shi’ite militias trained and supported by Tehran have joined Iraqi government forces in the fight against the militants.
British Prime Minister David Cameron, speaking at a separate news conference after the G7 session, said Britain would also expand a military training mission in Iraq in the coming weeks.
The United States and Britain were the main powers that invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow President Saddam Hussein, leading to prolonged civil conflict and a withdrawal that inflamed public opinion in both countries.
A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Obama’s comments did not signal that he was planning a major overhaul of U.S. strategy in Iraq.
“He was speaking about how to accelerate and optimize the training and equipping of Iraqi forces, including integration of Sunni fighters, not overall strategy to fight ISIL nor the intended purpose of the training mission, which is to enable local ground forces take the fight to ISIL backed by coalition air power,” the official said.
In Washington, the speaker of Iraq’s parliament, Saleem al-Jabouri, called on the United States and its allies to increase the pace of air strikes against Islamic State, and said Sunni tribes fighting the group in western Anbar province were not getting sufficient weaponry.
“First of all, increase the number of aerial sorties in a very clear way,” Jabouri, who was due to meet U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, told a small group of reporters.
Despite recent pledges by the Obama administration to speed weapons to the Sunnis in Anbar, via the central government in Baghdad, the flow is still insufficient, he said. “The level of armaments does not really correspond to the challenge that the province is facing,” Jabouri said. (Additional reporting by Noah Barkin and Andrew Osborn in Kruen, Warren Strobel in Washington and Philip Stewart in Jerusalem; Writing by Paul Taylor; Editing by Andrew Roche)
William Kristol approves of this message.
It is these people that you need permission from:
http://www.infowars.com/bilderberg-2015-full-attendee-list-agenda/
How is Kissinger even alive, never mind jet setting ,pact with the devil or is he a vampire?
Another wonderful guy has achieved a milestone.
David Rockefeller at 100: A life of service and philanthropy
Slowdown from the rapid pace but still cutting into inventory:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/real-estate/Area-of-new-homes-sold-at-8week-low/shdaily.shtml
I’m thinking of pulling some equity this week.
You’re better off walking away from the shack than selling stocks to cover your losses.
Appreciation is looking good this year.I’m feeling good about spending.
I wouldn’t feel good having to spend $2-3/sqft every year to offset depreciation.
You would if it was going up in value $4 to $5 a square foot per year.
Depreciating assets don’t “go up in value” Dan. That’s why theyre depreciating assets.
You have made the argument about depreciation many times on this board and it was about the physical “depreciation” of the asset. That is the only thing he would have to be spending money on to prevent or reverse. The paper movement neither puts money in a person’s pocket (absent a HELOC) or takes money out of one’s pocket.
There is no argument my friend. Houses depreciate rapidly resulting in loss.
Robert Shiller: “Houses Depreciate”
http://www.pragcap.com/robert-shiller-dont-invest-in-housing
Yes they do Mr. Shiller. Yes they do.
Got the appraiser on the horn today. He feels good about the numbers. He thinks 10% appreciation this year is in the bag.He says the mellenials are desperate for anything right now. they are even waiving inspections and buying as-is.
Data Poet data.
US Housing Demand Plunges To 20 Year Low
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fqSztKilps8/VFlPKlr52JI/AAAAAAAAhKU/v5oS41S-y0s/s1600/MBANov52014.PNG
I understand your concerns sir but you have been wrong for how many years now? U left a sh@t load of money on the table. U cant sit back and twiddle your thumbs all day in a rising market. You would have been fired a long time ago if you were a money manager. Sometimes you just have to get back up on that horse and ride it out dude.
And remember this:
Panic before everyone else !!!
Data Poet. Stick with the data.
Riverside, CA Housing Prices Fall 3%
http://www.movoto.com/riverside-ca/market-trends/
I would fire u if you managed my money.
You don’t have two dimes to rub together Poet.
Any news on the corporate bankruptcy front?
kmart looks like a near term candidate after lampert sucks off all the equity keeping the doors open.
Kmart sales have cratered 67% since 2000. Google it!
bunch of gray hairs in there now, apparently shopping there for sentimental reasons.
Trump news?
Cleveland: Hard Time: Fraudster sentenced to live in Slavic Village
The plan for Blaine Murphy’s Jan. 17 court hearing had been to ask Cuyahoga County Common Pleas Judge Richard McMonagle for an early release from his two-year prison sentence. For the past eight months, the 45-year-old had been locked up with more than 2,500 other men at the Richland Correctional Institution, about 90 minutes southwest of Cleveland. He’d been shipped there after he admitted to signing fake names to the deeds of 10 Cleveland-area homes, among hundreds he’d acquired and sold in the area. But his freedom would come at a price. One that had him pleading to return to prison instead.
McMonagle ordered him to complete 3,000 hours of community service and pay the $250,000 in restitution he still owed.
Until then, he would be forced to live in a home he had flipped. And he’d be shackled to Slavic Village
He just didn’t have good friends like Angelo Mozilo
Mozilo says he and Countrywide did nothing wrong
Kevin McCoy, USA TODAY 1:45 p.m. EDT September 2, 2014
Countrywide Financial founder Angelo Mozilo says he’s puzzled amid reports that federal prosecutors may file a civil lawsuit against him for suspected financial failings during the years leading up to the nation’s financial crisis.
The former head of what was the nation’s largest mortgage lender told Bloomberg News in a Labor Day interview he has “no idea,” why the government may pursue new charges against him.
“No, no, no, we didn’t do anything wrong,” Mozilo said, contending that the real estate market collapse led to the financial crisis. “Countrywide or Mozilo didn’t cause any of that.”
The interview was among Mozilo’s first public comments since Bank of America, which acquired Countrywide in 2008, reached a record $16.65 billion settlement to resolve allegations it sold toxic mortgage-backed securities and other financial products during the lead-up to the financial crisis.
http://www.usatoday.com/…/2014/09/02/angelo-mozilo-puzzled-by-investigation/14964753/ - 363k -
Comment by phony scandals
2015-06-08 17:28:55
Mozilo says he and Countrywide did nothing wrong
usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/09/02/angelo-mozilo-puzzled-by-investigation/14964753/
“No, no, no, we didn’t do anything wrong,” Mozilo said, contending that the real estate market collapse led to the financial crisis. “Countrywide or Mozilo didn’t cause any of that.”
Tell it to the Devil brah.
“This process is reversed when (or if) the Federal Reserve sells government securities rather than buying them. The purchasers of those Treasury securities from the Federal Reserve’s portfolio pay for them out of their bank accounts. This “drains” reserves out of the banking system, tending to push up interest rates, as funds for lending purposes (all other things remaining the same) are reduced.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-08/markets-not-janet-yellen-should-set-interest-rates
How can they sell when they are the only buyer in town?
The prison-industrial complex claims another expendable victim.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/6/8/kalief-browder-jailed-at-rikers-commits-suicide.html
Bunds Turn Germany From Hero to Zero as DAX Enters Correction
by Roxana Zega & Sofia Horta E Costa
June 7, 2015 — 3:00 PM PST
Updated on June 8, 2015 — 7:53 AM PST
Investors in German stocks have had a dizzying ride, first enjoying a rally that sent the DAX Index to a record in April before the gauge started one of Europe’s biggest slumps.
The blame lies in part with the bond market, where German debt just had its worst week since 1998. With the correlation between bunds and stocks near a 1 1/2-year high, traders bailed out of equities, too. The DAX has fallen 11 percent from its peak and closed at a three-month low. The 10-year government bond dropped for a fifth time in six days.
“It’s pretty difficult to ignore the crash in bunds,” said Michael Kapler, who manages equities at Mittelbrandenburgische Sparkasse in Potsdam, Germany. “Markets were priced for perfection. You could almost call it a hero-to-zero situation.”
While European Central Bank stimulus weakened the euro and suppressed bond yields at first, higher consumer prices and an improving economy are now propelling both higher. That’s bad news for exporters such as BMW AG and Daimler AG that earlier in the year sent the DAX up as much as 26 percent.
Mario Draghi’s warning on volatility last week turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy. A gauge tracking swings for 10-year bund futures jumped to the highest level since 2012. DAX volatility is up more than 50 percent from this year’s low.
…
Want to know how badly demand has collapsed in the real economy?
Ask a junk dealer.
^right there. And don’t forget independent scrappers and demo outfits.
Also don’t forget that China is (was) a big buyer of U.S. scrap metal and paper.
And Brazil.
Business
U.S. Is Awash in Glut of Scrap Materials
A strong dollar, slowing Chinese economy cut into demand abroad for salvaged metal and paper
Scrapper Bob ‘Hoop’ Hooper was making as much as $400 a day selling scrap just three years ago. ‘Now I’m doing $100 to $200,’ he says.
Photo: Jeff Swensen for The Wall Street Journal
By James R. Hagerty and Bob Tita
Updated June 7, 2015 7:56 p.m. ET
American companies have complained for the past year that the headwinds of a strong dollar and a slowing Chinese economy are hurting their earnings.
For sellers of scrap metal, used cardboard boxes, and other waste, those headwinds are more like a hurricane.
Waste has long been a major U.S. export, providing material to be melted in foreign steel mills or made into new paper products. But the strength of the dollar has made American waste pricier abroad, cutting demand in China, Turkey and other markets.
U.S. exports of scrap materials have fallen by 36% since peaking at $32.6 billion 2011. Prices of shredded scrap steel have plunged about 18% so far this year and are down 41% since early 2012, according data collected by the Platts unit of McGraw Hill Financial Inc. The dollar is up about 17% since last July against a basket of major currencies compiled by the Federal Reserve.
That has been hard on the network of waste dealers and scrap gatherers who are the backbone of the industry.
Bob Hooper, who goes by Hoop, finds discarded metal on curbs and in dumpsters around Pittsburgh and carries it to scrapyards in a rusting Chevy pickup with a bungee cord to keep the driver’s door shut. He was making as much as $400 a day selling scrap just three years ago, he said. “Now I’m doing $100 to $200.”
Or less. On a recent day, he hauled in more than 1,000 pounds of scrap, including two discarded refrigerators, a water heater and a broken microwave buried in egg shells and other moist trash. After gasoline expenses, he netted about $80.
Turkey, whose steel mills are big users of scrap, has been buying less from the U.S. and more from Russia, Ukraine and other places with weaker currencies. Meanwhile, U.S. steel production has fallen in response to more imports, so American producers are buying less scrap.
Demand for old paper and boxes also is down in the U.S. The average price for used corrugated cardboard has fallen 27% in the past year to $77 a ton, according to Pulp & Paper Week.
The recent labor dispute at West Coast ports disrupted exports, forcing buyers like China to find other sources and creating a glut in the U.S.
Waste and scrap remains a big business. Last year it accounted for 1.3% of U.S. exports, about the same as meat and poultry, and bigger than either corn or computers. The industry directly employs about 149,000 people, according to the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, a trade group. That doesn’t count self-employed people like Mr. Hooper.
…