Bits Bucket for August 24, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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‘Great fall of China sinks world stocks, dollar tumbles’
http://news.yahoo.com/asia-down-china-woes-unnerve-markets-safe-haven-001919460–business.html
“Ben, why do you post so much about China? I’m never going to buy a house in China!”
“It is a China-driven macro panic,” said Didier Duret, chief investment officer at ABN Amro.’
Are you saying building empty cities isn’t the path to riches? How long ago was the 60 Minutes story on empty cities?
Empty cites clearly showed these guys are a bunch of idiots. Unfortunately, the globalist have hitched our economic wagon to these fools.
“Are you saying building empty cities isn’t the path to riches? How long ago was the 60 Minutes story on empty cities?”
That it took Mr Market over a year to catch on to the situation is the amazing part.
“China’s Real Estate Bubble” which originally aired on March 3, 2013, and was rebroadcast on August 3, 2014.
How about 2-years ago…….and that was several years after the city was built and remained unoccupied.
Leslie Stahl in 2013 “16 years ago the government allowed the people to own their own homes…..”
Real estate stocks hit by ‘bubble’ concerns
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=newssearch&cd=20&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDkQqQIoADAJOApqFQoTCNKYjqLZwscCFVCUiAod0QsCdQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F61bd2fea-4a81-11e5-b558-8a9722977189.html&ei=MpHbVdK3CdCoogTRl4ioBw&usg=AFQjCNFvdrDH5e30U3_z8tz3dfA6dxD0Ag&sig2=2ZlmZn_bq1SebMc8R6OFfw
Leslie Stahl: All the apartments in Ordos have been sold to Chinese investors. They cost $50,000 to $60,000 each. Probably 1,000 SF units or so.
Hmmm, that’s HA’s range. I guess not all problems are solved if you buy at $55/SF. Look at Detroit and the bulldozer races there!
Denial Jingle_Fraud. It’s why you don’t like math.
I love math. I make my living using math every day. That is how I know your 25 million empty houses doesn’t add up!
Data my friend…. data.
https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html
And don’t forget about the 25 million empty and excess Cheetos bags in HAs back seat.
“That it took Mr Market over a year to catch on to the situation is the amazing part.”
If there’s a chance to scam an easy dollar they’re gamblers who will f**** a rattlesnake as long as a trained hedge-fund technician is holding on to its head.
I appreciate the China posts. It protected my portfolio from $40,000 in losses these last few days. I’ll send in a wealth advisory fee to the HBB this week!
Not nearly enough to offset your losses just in interest costs on those shanties Jingle_Fraud.
De nada. It became much easier to keep a steady stream of China updates flowing after AlbqDan vanished. Perhaps you usend some money his way to help defray the cost of so many crow dinners.
ABQDan got busted for endangering the common crow, so had to switch to humble pie.
“I’ll send in a wealth advisory fee to the HBB this week!”
Now you’re talking.
Mailed this afternoon….
Kiting checks is a crime Jingle_Fraud.
Think China’s stock market has bottomed out yet?
SPOILER ALERT!
Asia Markets
China shares wipe out 2015 gains as stocks tumble 8.5%
Published: Aug 24, 2015 1:07 a.m. ET
Several currencies in the region hit multiyear lows
Reuters
Chaos on Monday.
By Rebecca Howard and Chao Deng
China’s shares wiped out all of this year’s gains, setting Asian markets tumbling, as fears about the deepening effects of a slowdown in the world’s No. 2 economy rattle investors across the globe.
A number of currencies in the region fell to multiyear lows, with shares in China down more than 8%, and benchmarks in Japan and Australia both shedding more than 2%. The losses early Monday follow steep declines in U.S. and European stocks on Friday, and add to the pressure that has driven some commodities to multiyear lows and battered emerging markets.
At the heart of the selloff is the concern that the once-highflying Chinese economy may be slowing down dramatically. China’s surprise move to devalue its yuan two weeks ago—which would make its exports more competitive—and a string of weak economic data has tipped off worries that one of the world’s biggest drivers of growth may be slowing faster than expected.
Investors will be looking to China’s next move after The Wall Street Journal reported that the central bank is preparing to flood the banking system with liquidity to boost lending. Some economists say that China still has plenty of levers to pull to get its economy back into gear.
Still, the lack of official action over the weekend spooked investors Monday morning.
“There’s going to be plenty of red on the screens today,” said Auckland-based Macquarie Equities broker Brad Gordon.
…
Brack Monday.
Beware of falling BRICs!
It’s just a flesh wound.
That’s a good question.
Why is there such a fall? Are companies shedding their business models built on speculation ponzis, low interest rates, and stock buybacks? In which case it’s a real flesh wound and companies can simply survive on fundamentals. Or are companies fundamentals being shaken by a demand crash from China?
I suspect it’s a bit of both. The demand crash from China triggered a break in the smooth trajectory of ponzi growth, which triggered the realization that the markets were driven by speculation etc, which triggered a panic flight to fundamentals, only to find that the fundamentals aren’t there, which is triggering more panic.
Or are companies fundamentals being shaken by a demand crash from China?
Other than raw materials and specialty items (like airliners), what does China buy from the west?
Other than raw materials and specialty items (like airliners), what does China buy from the west?
Buicks! Lots of Chinese like to drive Buicks!
http://www.carnewschina.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/buick-china-dealer-1.jpg?97ba00
“Other than raw materials and specialty items (like airliners), what does China buy from the west?”
Betcha they buy lots of K-Street bunghole… at list price.
Buicks! Lots of Chinese like to drive Buicks!
But they’re made in China, with mostly Chinese content.
Chinese job security: repo man in Ordos. 300,000 vacant homes, multiple office buildings and a ghostly regional mall.
hoocudanode?
They probably buy a lot of software from your employer.
I think you are correct and I also heard that mutual funds having little cash and when client are selling the fund, in order to raise cash the fund has to sell more stocks to raise cash this is putting downward pressure.
Same thing that happened in 2008.
Guess they didn’t fix things after all!
Seems like pretty indiscriminate panic selling more than fear of a demand crash from China.
Take Equity Residential…an Apartment REIT. What is their practical exposure to China?
They are far more exposed to interest rates…if rates go up, their dividend looks less attractive as compared to the risk free rate, and the stock price should go down.
Today, it seems like people are assuming the Fed will punt on an interest rate hike for a bit longer, so in theory, EQR should take the news as positive.
Nope…down 5%.
How about Google, who famously backed out of the China market (or at least dramatically scaled back)?
Down 3%…LESS than Apple (down 1.6%), who has lots of exposure to China.
Gee, maybe governments can’t actually sustain fake economies forever.
Ftw.
And somewhere in New Mexico, ADan is getting a swirly right now.
Has anyone bothered to keep track of how far below the correction he “predicted” the Chinese stock market has gone?
I don’t recall him predicting a 42% drop off peak that would erase all 2015 gains.
He certainly was an odd fellow, wasn’t he.
Perpetually and articulately in the last stages of denial over China, oil prices, climate change, polling results. . . ; ADan was something of a reverse Cassandra.
None of that comes close to the denial over worthless rapidly depreciating houses.
Ahansen…My goodness lady where you been ??
It’s like Old Home Day at the HBB….
I love seeing all the old timers here! We’re back in business at the HBB!
“He certainly was an odd fellow… something of a reverse Cassandra”
I hope they’re merciful on him at the reeducation camp.
“Ardnassac Dan:
Whoh. A-dan’s absense is bringing out the lurkers! Welcome yous guyz!
Polly, someone would have to fish through his posts… didn’t he say something like an 8-10% correction? But that was in the Shanghai index, not the DOW.
Allena, I think he is being paid for all that denial. No, I don’t believe he was specifically paid to post here. More likely, he was being paid to lobby for fossil, and later, for Chinese interests. He seems very bad at smelling BS and very adept at falling for the company line. Companies like that — it makes for much better sales if your salesman is genuinely sincere, and not skeptical, about what he’s selling.
[or better yet, maybe his field is Chinese fossil. Recently I made some comment that the Chinese didn't want to manipulate oil price as a commodity. They want to buy the actual oil at the bottom, to store in tank farms and use when oil gets scarce, like in Mad Max. A-dan praised that comment so highly that I wonder whether I had unwittingly hit close to the mark.]
A-dan is the textbook version of the old phrase that “it’s hard to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on not understanding it.”
“Welcome yous guyz!”
+2
“Welcome yous guyz!”
+2
“Allena, I think he is being paid for all that denial.”
He repeatedly denied being paid. (Not to suggest that denials mean anything when coming from an attorney.)
“Not to suggest that denials mean anything* when coming from an attorney.)”
*Unless that attorney is Polly or one of my friends or relatives in the business, that is…
heh
No, I think he denied being paid for his pro-China posts. I don’t doubt him on that. I simply think that he passionately believes whatever his employers need him to believe. He’s so passionate that in his posts, he is truly trying to convince us of his own accord.
Salesmen do this, lobbyists do it, proselytizers do it.
Lobbyists are paid to do their job in a way that makes people think their changed minds are their own idea. It doesn’t work if you become a laughing stock. It doesn’t even work if you aren’t a laughing stock but too much of the attention is on the fact that *you* are saying something, instead of the attention being on what is said. Either way he failed miserably.
Apparently some people love their crow.
There’s no accounting for taste.
wsj dot com
Markets Commodities Oil Markets
Oil Plunges to Fresh Six-Year Lows
Brent crude drops below $45-a-barrel mark for the first time since March 2009
By Nicole Friedman
Updated Aug. 24, 2015 3:18 p.m. ET
NEW YORK—Oil prices plunged to fresh six-year lows Monday on concerns about a slowdown in Chinese demand and growing crude-oil supplies in the U.S.
Brent, the global oil benchmark, fell through its January lows to trade below $45 a barrel for the first time in six years. Brent settled down $2.77, or 6.1%, at $42.69 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, the lowest settlement since March 2009.
The U.S. oil benchmark settled down $2.21, or 5.5%, at $38.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the first settlement below $40 a barrel since February 2009.
Prices tanked overnight following an 8.5% decline on the Shanghai Composite Index, the biggest percentage decline since 2007. China is the second-largest consumer of oil after the U.S. Other commodity prices, including copper and soybeans, slumped Monday on worries about a slowdown in China.
“Over the past two weeks China has become the dominant concern,” said analysts at Standard Chartered in a note. “It has taken over as the main driver of oil prices.”
…
Likewise certainly the commodities carnage is over?
Commodities Slump to 16-Year Low as China Slowdown Roils Markets
Ranjeetha Pakiam
August 23, 2015 — 7:10 PM PDT
Updated on August 24, 2015 — 12:42 AM PDT
Why It’s Starting to Feel Like 1994 Again in Asia
Commodities sank to the lowest level in 16 years and shares in resources companies joined a global equity slump on concern China’s economic slowdown will exacerbate gluts of everything from oil to metals.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials lost as much 1.8 percent to 86.2645 points, the lowest level since August 1999. Shares in miners and explorers from Glencore Plc to BHP Billiton Ltd. and Cnooc Ltd. tumbled while Brent crude fell below $45 a barrel for the first time since 2009.
“Sentiment is extremely negative across the commodity complex,” Mark Keenan, head of commodities research for Asia at Societe Generale SA in Singapore, said in an e-mail. “Markets are plagued by concerns of oversupply.”
Raw materials are in retreat as supplies outstrip demand amid forecasts for the slowest Chinese growth since 1990. The largest user of energy, grains and metals was much weaker than anyone expected in the first half of the year, according to Ivan Glasenberg, head of Glencore Plc, the world’s leading commodity trader.
“It’s being fueled by the large drop in the Chinese stock market today, which is making people nervous about the management of the Chinese economy, which has direct implications for commodities,” Ric Spooner, a chief market strategist at CMC Markets Asia Pty, said by phone from Sydney. “It’s now basically a risk-off move.”
…
Did the world’s plunge protection authorities simply up and quit?
With the bandage apparently ripped off the stock market, perhaps the Fed has no reason to fear that interest rate liftoff will precipitate a selloff.
It’s already fully underway with no liftoff in view.
I like your thinking. Someone was commenting on another board that this is being “allowed” to happen so the Fed is covered when it raises. Makes sense in a completely crazy way.
I bet Goldman went short, then gave Yellen the go-ahead to raise rates and crush the muppets. That would be par for the course.
Chuckle…
I blame GWB. He started this!
“I like your thinking. Someone was commenting on another board that this is being “allowed” to happen so the Fed is covered when it raises. Makes sense in a completely crazy way.”
I don’t get it. What was the thinking here? How does it cover the Fed? Stock market can’t drop further so they can raise rates and not get the blame?
If the stock market has dropped to a point where prices can’t go any lower before Fed liftoff, it will be hard for disgruntled Wall Street people to blame the crash on the Fed.
I love the smell of panic in the morning. I’ve been out of the market since 16,200 last fall. What did I miss out on? Absolutely nothing…in fact my stable value funds still do about 2%.
Funny how well you sleep when you stop gambling.
Looks like the PPT is back on the job, as a 1000 pt selloff got whittled down to 300 pts in a matter of minutes. ..
But we’re supposed to believe that we have fair and open and real equity markets… Manipulation? Impossible! Nothing to see here folks, move along…
Nope, no PPT. Just the regular traders doing their usual thing. Shorts get too greedy on the down side. Buyers step in and push the tape up to smoke out the shorts and make them cover. It’s just a typical bounce.
I was working on Black Monday, when the Dow crashed by over 500 points. There was no bounce until the next day, when Alan Greenspan “supplied liquidity” to the market.’
Just sayin’…
He cut rates and supplied liquidity to banks. The Fed didn’t directly buy stocks.
What difference does it make by what means you manipulate markets?
Just trying to debunk the myth that there’s this PPT in Washington that directly buys stock in the market. An ordinary bounce is not evidence of a PPT.
“Nope, no PPT.”
I find your extreme confidence in this opinion quite interesting. Why would you assume that market manipulation has no role in a rapid reversal of a 1000 point drop?
“Summary
Sudden and swift declines in the stock market have become a more regular occurrence.
The recoveries from these declines are just as rapid, which does not characterize typical investor behavior.
It appears as though there is an outside force, with motives consistent with those of the Federal Reserve, that is supporting market prices.
The short-term benefits of manipulation that leads to wealth creation, should it be occurring, destroys the credibility of our markets, and ultimately leads to wealth destruction.”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2811335-is-the-fed-buying-stocks
WPA sez it’s not happening, which makes it unpossible.
I find your extreme confidence in this opinion quite interesting. Why would you assume that market manipulation has no role in a rapid reversal of a 1000 point drop?
I didn’t say that. I said the PPT, if there is one, does not directly buy stocks. There’s no government employee in a cubicle with a billion dollar E*Trade account. That’s flat-out illegal. OTOH, I wouldn’t be surprised if Yellen or Obama called big investment banks over the weekend and said “Do us a favor and buy, we got your back.” If you call those behind-the-scenes deals “market manipulation” then sure, it could be playing a role here.
“The Fed didn’t directly buy stocks.”
“Betting on Ben”
Central banks have been supporting share prices
http://www.economist.com/node/18178399
Whatever brought the market back from the brink didn’t last.
Market Snapshot
Dow tries to claw way back from 1,000-point stock-market plunge
Published: Aug 24, 2015 2:10 p.m. ET
S&P 500, Nasdaq fall into correction territory
By Anora Mahmudova, Reporter, & Barbara Kollmeyer
Markets reporter
Wall Street is reeling from a bout of volatility which saw the Dow industrials rebound from a stomach-churning, 1,000-point drop, while the main benchmark S&P 500 briefly slipped into correction territory.
Intraday volatility saw the main indexes plunge by more than 5%, nearly erase most losses by early afternoon and fall again to trade more than 2% lower on the day by midafternoon amid heavy volumes.
The global selloff in equity market on Monday was triggered by another plunge in China’s stock market, while investors remain concerned about the health of the second-largest economy.
On Monday Chinese equities surrendered all of their gains for 2015, and a rout in the U.S. on Friday that capped the worst week for the market in four years.
“Short-term fear of the unknown is still in the driver’s seat, I would expect more volatility in the coming weeks,” said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, -4.14%) dropped more than 1,000 points in a harrowing start to the day, but was trading off its lows, down 386 points, or 2.4%, at 16,072.
The S&P 500 (SPX, -3.17%) was down 52 points, or 2.6%, to 1,918, well off its lows of the session. Amid Monday’s mayhem, the benchmark index briefly fell into correction territory, falling more than 10% from its peak reached on May 21.
The Nasdaq Composite (COMP, -2.75%) skidded 350 points in early trade, but was off 106 points, or 2.3% to 4,608, still a sharp decline.
“Trading volumes are driven by ETFs today, but we are not seeing a lot of panic, where people dump large amounts of stocks in one go. There are still buyers out there, who are picking up stocks that have seen large correction. However, volatility is back, so seeing large intraday and day-to-day swings is not surprising,” said Brian Fenske, head of sales trading at ITG.
…
“…….. Obama called big investment banks over the weekend and said “Do us a favor and buy, we got your back.”
You mean like BofA and Countrywide or JP Morgan and Chase? LOL……Lucy says she won’t move the football Charlie!
These “shorts” and these “buyers”, they are compelled by DNA. They do not have a will.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-24/property-brokers-falter-as-real-estate-boom-seen-cooling?cmpid=yhoo
When was commercial booming?
It’s not the real estate, it is the service providers that have been experiencing business growth.
.Vic over 30
Why aren’t I buying anything?
Turn those machines back on!!!
Mortimer? Is that you Mortimer?
Why are stock prices going down?
Because they were too high to begin with.
Fall by half and get the dividend yield up to its historic average, and I might consider putting some of our savings there.
Then again, given what American business has become, perhaps not.
https://larrylittlefield.wordpress.com/2015/08/23/the-american-and-new-york-economy-stagnation-and-oligarchy-or-renewal-and-entrepreneurship/
+1. The Ponzi is imploding, as was always inevitable.
I blame GWB. He started this! ??
Yes he did starting with a couple trillion blown away in Iraq…Then Tax cuts for the wealthy…Then the financial meltdown in September 2008…He ran this country into a ditch..
+1.
….and now ISIS Has $1B Worth Of US Humvee Armored Vehicles; One Was Used In Monday’s Suicide Bombing Near Baghdad
http://www.ibtimes.com/isis-has-1b-worth-us-humvee-armored-vehicles-one-was-used-mondays-suicide-bombing-1946521
Jeb 2016 lol!
get the dividend yield up to its historic average ??
In an environment where you have zero and even negative real interest rates world wide ?? Not going to happen…
I might be beaten down enough by the perpetual bubble to consider 3.0%. Not less than that.
Plenty of stocks with 3%+ dividends, even before the downturn. I suspect tomorrow there will be even more.
That’s what I think too. I am now in a conundrum as to whether or not I should short it. I learned last year that being short the US stock market is a little risky because the Federal Reserve has the stock market’s back, but it’s sooooooo tempting. Besides, I need something to make me feel better while I’m waiting for my oil money to come back home.
And people wonder why Trump is popular…
—————–
Work in BigTech for Hire: Americans Need Not Apply
National Review | 8/24/15 | Ian Smith
A post-graduate student-visa program is just another scheme to displace American technology workers.
American technology workers won a big victory in the federal courts this month. The D.C. District Court ruled that a STEM-related visa program created by the Department of Homeland Security was potentially damaging to the domestic labor market and also in violation of federal rule-making procedure. For the plaintiffs in the case, the Washington Alliance of Technology Workers, however, the fight against BigTech lobbyists and Homeland Security has only just begun.
DHS’s so-called Optional Practical Training (OPT) program allows foreign nationals to live and work in the U.S. on a student visa even after graduation. In a rule promulgated by DHS in 2008, foreigners graduating in a STEM field at a U.S. school had these authorizations extended to nearly two and a half years after their graduation. U.S. employers love this because, on top of the longer work period, they have a greater chance to transition them into the H-1B program, a “professional specialty worker” visa that can last up to an additional six years. Also, employers receive a tax benefit for hiring OPT participants over Americans, as they do not have to pay Medicare and Social Security taxes for aliens on student visas.
we flaps his arms and offers 2-3 policy possitions
x dem
single payer promoter?
Trump is a nationalist socialist.
As opposed to a Globalist Socialist?
Well so far the United Nations has not kicked in our doors. But American cops have kicked in a lot of American doors.
“In a rule promulgated by DHS in 2008″
I don’t recall Dems being in power in 2008.
I notice that U.S. employers don’t bother to sponsor these students for green cards or citizenship… just for more H1-B. And grad students have been experts at popping out little citizens for decades. If Trump et al want to slow immigration, simply allow ONLY the student or H1-B worker to enter the U.S. No parents and no spouses. That would make a dent much more quickly than tilting at the 14th amendment windmill.
I notice that U.S. employers don’t bother to sponsor these students for green cards or citizenship
I work with a few H1-B’s. It is their hope to get that coveted green card, but as you mentioned, they are on their own. Their employers will not sponsor them for a green card. From what my manager told me, the H1-B paperwork is a nightmare (and he won’t do it again). I expect sponsoring someone for a green card is an order of magnitude more difficult and expensive.
What is amazing is that these H1-B’s are buying houses. What happens if they can’t renew their visas and have to leave? Especially of it happens in a down market and they’re underwater or otherwise can’t sell? I guess they’ll have an “everything must go” garage sale, sell the cars and walk away.
In one story I heard, a guy at company Alpha was buddies with a guy at company Beta. Alpha called up Beta and said “Hey, this guy X from India is pretty good. Maybe you should hire him.”
As it turned out, Beta had already interviewed X From India and didn’t like him. But he knew Alpha’s game. Alpha wanted to hire X for himself, but the work visa/green card paperwork was long and expensive. So, Alpha was trying to convince Beta to hire X and go through the paperwork. Then Alpha would offer a higher salary to X to lure him away from Beta. Effectively, Alpha would hire X but stick Beta with the paperwork hassle and $$.
B*st*rds.
So, Alpha was trying to convince Beta to hire X and go through the paperwork.
Actually, one guy we hired already had an H1-B and had a job. It was still a PITA to hire him. Plus his visa expired after a couple of years and we had to go through all the rigamarole. He even had to go back home to reapply. My manager swears “never again”.
Fake job openings to get the H1-B you can’t just hire them without first trying to hire an American.
I was going to say we do this all the time but I didn’t say that not at all
You don’t have to try to hire an American over an H1-B. It is legal to eliminate an American and replace them with an H1-B.
We all love Trump for calling the career politicians idiots. That’s about it. Believing his ideas will work are for the sheeple.
4:47 pacific time and major U.S. index futures down 4%.
CRATER
Is this the big one?
“Elizabeth, I’m coming to join ya!” — Fred Sanford
“Call me this and call me that but I still say that broad was fat.” Fred Sanford.
A song dedication for the Wall Street banksters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yge311sFhC8
Carnage everywhere this fine Monday. Got popcorn?
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/24/whose-capital-is-getting-destroyed-in-us-natural-gas-chesapeake/
Hope and Change.
Just not the change you thought.
——————
Majority of Food Stamp Recipients Are Now Working Age Adults, Not Children or Seniors
Daily Signal - Maura Corrigan - August 22, 2015
The nation’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly food stamps) experienced mixed results in 2014. Participation and average benefit amounts fell slightly from the previous year, but the program remains much larger than it was a decade ago, despite an improving economy. And far too few working-age adults receiving SNAP are in fact working, even years into the recovery. The program may appear to be on the right track—but it is far from perfect and traveling much too slowly.
One out of seven Americans received SNAP benefits in 2014, and the program cost $74.1 billion—the second largest means-tested welfare program. Participation remains twice as high as it was a decade ago (24 million in 2004), even as the unemployment rate has dropped in recent years.
Another one for the Wall Street grifters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwYN7mTi6HM
CNBC.com breaking news at 8:00 AM ET: “DOW FUTURES DOWN 700; S&P FUTURES DOWN NEARLY 80.”
Looks like the bottom is not in yet. But I’m sure the PPT’s will save us, lol.
Another most excellent CNBC.com headline right now: “Amid carnage, strategists predict bounce; ‘go all in’”!
It’s a great time to buy!
predict bounce; ‘go all in’”! It’s a great time to buy! ??
Did you see the chart on FORD this morning ??
Is it still “turtles all the way down” these days?
If so, then where did all the turtles go?
Country house:
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20150822_193738-oqFlT359.jpg
Country buffet:
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20150822_193949-doZyK7Oi.jpg
Region VIII
So much for going Paleo, eh?
Like the tent… is Goon Girl in there too?
Where’s the appetizers?
We also had some nuts and Pepperidge Farm strawberry tart cookies and powdered lemon-lime Gatorade
How was the desert?
The Great Muppet Massacre of 2015 commences.
Q: What’s the value of a stock to someone not trying to take over the company?
A: Selling it for more money than you bought it for.
The Dow, an approximation for the market, went up at a 45 degree angle since 2008. There’s a lot of profit taking opportunities there, i.e. opportunities to extract actual value from stocks.
How long before true price discovery spreads to the Fed’s other asset bubbles, i.e. housing? THANK G_D I’M RENTING!!!!
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-markets-sell-off-aug-24-2015-2015-8
I know a guy who just bought. A really decent, pleasant, hardworking guy.
What really angers me is the Fed and government aggressive pumping of housing prices which 1) Extracts maximum value from this guy and 2) sets him up for a fall should his a) financial situation degrade and b) should the Fed and government stop the pumping.
He just wants a place to live for him and his kid.
I sincerely hope it works out for him, but following the money, who profits? The biggest lobbyists (the FIRE sector) and the those in the revolving door between the FIRE sector and Fed/government. They’re not pursuing these policies for guys like this who create the actual value for society.
Could not agree more, Neuromance.
Shangai Comp down 8.5% (Monday)…how’s that 7% growth rate target looking? A-Dan?
ABQ Dan seems to have believed his own propaganda, which means his portfolio got nuked first and best. He won’t show his face around here again, that’s for sure. Must say I’m enjoying the respite for 100 “China is awesome!” posts a day.
Asia Markets
China shares wipe out 2015 gains as stocks tumble 8.5%
Published: Aug 24, 2015 3:53 a.m. ET
Several currencies in the region hit multiyear lows
Reuters
Chaos on Monday.
By Rebecca Howard, Chao Deng and Anjani Trivedi
Chinese stocks plummeted Monday, erasing gains for the year, as fears about the deepening effects of a slowdown in the world’s No. 2 economy rattled investors world-wide.
Stock markets slid across Asia and a number of regional currencies fell to fresh multiyear lows. China’s main stock index, which closed 8.5% lower on Monday, has tipped into negative territory for the year after gaining as much as 60% through its June peak. Benchmarks in Japan and Australia both shed nearly 4%.
At the heart of the selloff is the concern that the once-highflying Chinese economy may be slowing down dramatically, which has triggered steep losses in global stock markets, commodities and emerging markets. China’s surprise move to devalue its yuan two weeks ago — which could make its exports more competitive — and a string of weak data signal the economy may be feebler than expected, despite a campaign to rev up growth including interest rate cuts and measures to boost lending.
Traders are looking to China’s next easing move after The Wall Street Journal reported that the central bank is preparing to flood the banking system with liquidity to increase lending. While some economists say that China still has plenty of levers to pull to get its economy back into gear, the lack of official action over the weekend spooked investors Monday morning.
“The trigger was China,” said Nicholas Teo, a market analyst at CMC Markets in Singapore. “It is no longer the factory of the world but a huge consumer of the world’s products,” which is sparking worries for global firms with business there, he added.
The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP, -8.49%) closed down 8.5% at 3,209.91, bringing its losses since its mid-June peak to nearly 38%. At that point, the index had doubled in value over the preceding 12 months.
…
Chinese stocks are crashing
US Stocks are crashing
Massive leverage.
Massive debt.
Oil crashing.
This can only be GOOD for housing prices - right??
Especially - Denver and Vancouver…(my two favorite bubble cities)
I want $1.50 gas!
Loveland season passes include three days each at Monarch, Durango, Powderhorn, and Created Butte this year. Might pick up four-packs for Arapahoe Basin and Winter Park too.
People with mortgages can’t do that, because they are BROKE!
The number of underwater FBs is about to soar. Honest price discovery (after years of Fed/Wall Street machinations) is going to be a bit*ch.
That’s what was said last time.
Hopefully, this time it will come true…with no QE nonsense to bail out the idiots.
They will continue to try QE until it doesn’t work. Does anyone think otherwise?
And it is that (or a crash in derivatives) that will set off the third major leg down in the markets.
Historically, bear markets have three major legs down before a true bull market resumes. The first leg down was the tech wreck in 2000. The second major leg down was in 2008. The third leg down hasn’t occurred yet.
If true to form, the third leg down, while significant (30-40%), won’t be as big as the second leg was.
The first major drop is the “The Party’s Over” drop. The mania that had ensued during the previous 5-10 years is kaput.
The second major drop stems from intervention meant to restore the craziness of the previous mania. What worked then will work again, but only if we have more of it.
The third major leg down shakes out the ill-conceived interventions made by government and business to Band-Aid the second drop.
It’s only after the third leg down that government and business finally recognize that the folly of the past will remain folly. Sensible, practical ideas will emerge.
After 30-40 years of folly, practicality returns. A shame that entire generations of individuals are reamed over those 30-40 years.
The smart thing to do would be to raise rates over the next 18 months until we hit 2.5% or even 3%. That is contrarian and would set an example for the rest of the world that sane monetary policy will not cause Armageddon, but will only destroy the naked.
I pity the fools who don’t listen.
Crime was already spiking - part of that “edgy urban vibe” so beloved of realtors. Now if we have a full-fledged economic crash things are really going to go haywire.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/8/24/crime-spikes-in-major-cities-confound-experts.html
in Baltimore the call it Victory ,yo
free shopping at CVS while PO-lice watch
From the article: He likens it to a 100-point spike in the stock market on one day. “It doesn’t say anything. … You really shouldn’t make much at all about a one-year change, especially when it’s a six-month window.”
Kind of funny quote today of all days.
B…b…but I thought our central planners were infallible….
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3208576/Black-Monday-Chinese-stock-market-shares-plummet-8-world-s-second-biggest-economy-continues-freefall.html#ixzz3jjXLpMxM
Seems like the Chinese government decided to throw its muppets under the bus at the same time the Wall Street investment bankers decided to throw ours under.
Is it too soon to give up hope that the Chinese government’s stock market rescue mission will resurrect the A-shares?
World Asia
WSJ PRO
China to Flood Economy With Cash as Global Markets Lose Faith
Step to counter effects of yuan devaluation comes as Beijing’s policy-making tools are questioned; stocks fall sharply in Asia morning
An investor watched a stock price display at a brokerage in Beijing on Friday. China’s struggles this summer have spooked many investors.
Photo: Ng Han Guan/Associated Press
By Lingling Wei and Mark Magnier
Updated Aug. 24, 2015 8:12 a.m. ET
BEIJING—The selloff in Chinese stocks accelerated Monday, adding pressure on Beijing, which is planning to flood its banking system with new liquidity to offset effects of its recent surprise currency devaluation, according to Chinese officials and advisers to the central bank.
The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 8.5%, bringing its losses since its mid-June peak to roughly 38% and sparking another selloff in stocks and commodities around the globe.
The expected move to free up more funds for lending—by reducing the deposits banks must hold in reserve—is directly aimed at countering the effects of a weaker currency, which could send more funds away from Beijing’s shores. The moves reflect an economy increasingly failing to cooperate with Chinese leaders’ playbook to control the world’s No. 2 economy.
Beijing’s struggles this summer have spooked many investors into viewing China as a threat to, rather than a rescuer of, global growth. During the financial crisis of 2008 and early 2009, China, with a colossal stimulus plan, acted as a shock absorber. Lately, it is China that is providing the shocks.
Over the past week, it has grown clear how dependent a growth-starved world is on China, which accounts for 15% of global output but has contributed up to half of global growth in recent years.
Given this dependency, one reason markets have been so unnerved is that China’s economy remains something of a black box. For starters, analysts have long wondered about the accuracy of government economic statistics. And levers pulled by Chinese policy makers can be unconventional. This is seen in Beijing’s desire to micromanage the yuan’s value, which undercuts its ability to pursue an independent monetary policy because of spillover effects on domestic liquidity.
The cut in bank reserves, which could come as early as this week, would follow several others this year and four interest-rate cuts since November that have failed to juice growth and channel bank lending to the so-called real economy.
A key problem is that risk-averse banks continue to favor state-owned companies, eschewing private enterprises with less-traditional collateral and balance sheets. This often leaves entrepreneurs with higher growth potential to fall back on high-interest nonbank financing or go without. Meanwhile, many state-owned companies, already awash in cheap capital, are reluctant to borrow because of overcapacity in various industries.
…
Won’t flooding the market with cash require the Chinese government to go still deeper into debt?
Perhaps it’s all good for them, if a lower yuan results, providing export stimulus.
Any thoughts on how long it will take the global stock market contagion to infect U.S. housing?
The greedheads will cling to their wish prices through December at least, by which time the starving realtors will refuse to list anything without deep price cuts. Zero sales = zero commissions, and a cat food diet gets old after awhile.
Yeah, they’re gonna wait until the market comes back. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard that.
I know a guy who grows increasingly bitter by the day. He’s only above water by $170k on his house. He was expecting it to have already paid for itself. It’s 3000 sq ft and houses two humans. He can’t move because it hasn’t paid for itself yet. He had to unretire. He’s miserable.
With prices already falling, as Ben and others constantly point out with posts on high percentages of inventory price reduced, it won’t be so long as December.
It will start to get interesting when the various “investment” groups are forced to sell to cover losses elsewhere.
“Moments ago, without any specific catalyst, US equity futures just plunged when in thin, illiquid tape, a seller took out about 30 consecutive bid levels and as of last check, the ES was down as much as -48 to just 1923, or 2.5%, after being down a modest -13 minutes ago.”
“… in thin, illiquid tape, as seller took out about 30 consecutive bid levels …”
Translation: With little money somebody was able to set the prices of the comps a lot lower.
In the world of Price Equals Value (which is the stock market) taking out the comps of a selected few shares ended up setting the prices lower for the many shares that are represented by these few shares that were taken down.
It’s been a week end of nail biting and tossing and turning for a lot of investors and now - Monday - this recent price drop will panic these worried investors to sell - SELL! - … but, sell to whom?
(snort)
Sell to the same guys who manipulated the prices on the downside, of course, the same guys who will then run the prices up again.
The same old story: Suck ‘em in, shake ‘em out.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-23/us-equity-futures-are-crashing
Remain clever. Look at some previous price lows of the stocks you own and put some stop-loss orders just a wee bit underneath these price lows.
The pros will never think to look there, will never think to drop the price down far enough to trigger those stops.
Got popcorn?
I recommend Trader Joe’s Popcorn in a Pickle for the episode.
Does it go down well with the two-buck chuck?
I wouldn’t tempt fate like that…
That actually sounds really good. Sounds like it would make a good potato chip too.
7+% growth rate in China.
For years the official growth rate in China has been fantastic, always in the 7-10% range. However, independently measurable rates of growth, like imports of raw materials and exports to foreign countries, in general seem to somewhat lag the official Chinese numbers for years.
So it is entirely possible that the official size of the Chinese economy is far ahead of its actual size due to years of exaggerating the growth rate.
Shadow banking system, ghost cities, fake stats, leverage, stock market bubble and corruption all seem to be crashing back to earth.
ditto
Looks like the central bank Ponzi markets are imploding worldwide. The other asset bubbles like housing are sure to follow. I look forward to firesale pricing.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/11819812/Black-Monday-live-FTSE-100-China-global-markets.html
Stock up on essentials while you still can - it’s beginning to look like the long-deferred financial reckoning day has finally arrived with a vengeance.
http://survivalcache.com/top-100-items-to-dissappear-first/
Wait until all the Social Justice Warriors™ get to learn that food doesn’t magically grow itself on the shelves of their local artisan bakery
Bakery? Pah. Wait until they find out that coffee beans, shade picked by cop-op or no, don’t ship themselves to their favorite roastery. And that milk foamers need electricity.
(I don’t know soymilk, does it whip up like cow milk?)
BREACH! NYMEX oil has plunged below the $40/bbl resistance level.
It’s a long way up from here to $80/bbl by December.
I’m heading over to Costco for my early-morning fillup, before the lines form!
Futures Movers
Crude oil tumbles below $39 a barrel on China market turmoil
Published: Aug 24, 2015 6:24 a.m. ET
Brent drops below $45 for the first time in over 7 years
By Sara Sjolin Markets reporter & Eric Yep
The plunge in oil prices continued on Monday, in line with the selloff in wider financial markets, as investors were shaken by the rout in Chinese equity markets and worries about global economic growth.
Light, sweet crude futures for delivery in October (CLV5, -3.88%) dropped below $39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, setting it on track to close below that level for the first time since February 2009. The contract was down $1.61, or 4%, at $38.84 a barrel, in midmorning European trading hours.
October Brent crude (LCOV5, -4.07%) on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $1.96, or 4.3%, to $43.51 a barrel, dropping below the $45-a-barrel mark for the first time since March 2009. It is now trading more than 55% lower from its one-year high of $103.19 a barrel reached in August last year.
Oil prices have been under pressure for several months due to oversupply concerns, but the slump deepened in recent weeks on fears of a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy and its impact on global markets. The recent devaluation of the yuan also added to market uncertainly, stoking concerns that China’s oil and commodities imports could fall further.
Equity markets in China were sharply lower again Monday, wiping out all of this year’s gains, following a sharp decline in global equity markets last week. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP, -8.49%) closed 8.5% lower, marking its worst one-day percentage performance since February 2007.
…
Another day, another half percent drop in Costco’s gasoline price. I’m down with gas under $3/gal!
http://picpaste.com/pics/20150824_065022-fNNGZMX1.1440425623.jpg
Actually I misspoke (blaming it on late coffee)–the price is down by 2 pct since yesterday.
Prices in my neck of the woods are still around $2.80, and have been there for a few months and are refusing to go down. This is a dollar higher than last year’s low, when oil prices were higher.
Read an article yesterday justifying the price stickiness. It made the usual bogus excuses: high demand, limited supply (refineries offline), etc. Funny how gas prices always skyrocket when oil goes up, regardless of other conditions.
Prices are below last year’s highs, of course back then oil was $100/bbl
Just took a looksie with GasBuddy. We’re getting screwed out west, prices are way lower on the east coast.
I don’t think this is the big one. But it’s a taste of what you’ll see next year. Get a nice rally in the fall/winter period and lay it in for the life changing down move. That’s the plan for now, subject to revision.
Thanks, txchick. Should be an interesting day, anyway. And howdy to ya.
Whoa…is this THE txchick57 from the HBB days of yore?!
I think this could very well be the big one if the carnage spreads into derviatives, which seems inevitable at this point. Too much fraud and ficticious valuations (and unpayable liabilities) have built up in the system.
+1
That’s the key. The derivatives angle. Thus far, not much damage there.
“Tis a shame I didn’t buy first thing this morning. Could’ve made a killing. A 550-point intra-day gain thus far. I’m not a day trader though. I don’t have those kind of assets, nor that kind of stomach.
She’s Back! Hi Chick!
I agree. Doesn’t mean we’re right, tho. Who knows.
Although I do believe Mr Market, in its attempt to be predictive four-to-six months in advance, smells trouble.
Those who make use of credit will find it drying up rapidly (hopefully). I don’t think any semblance of a real economy emerges until those using credit get handed a long-lasting sh*t shingle.
Everyone else is going to get seriously reamed with rising costs, especially ObamaCare. It’s almost amusing hearing economists blather on and on about the benefits of lower gas prices for the minions….as if saving $1.00 a gallon are going to in any way mitigate massive increases in healthcare costs.
Many people on this board are due for a shock…many plans increasing premium rates 20-40% next year. Think you’re going to go unscathed? Not hardly.
Don’t care because you’re on Medicaid/Medicare? Don’t count your chickens. One never knows what 100 million people might do once robbed just enough.
Didn’t mean to say that rising costs would hit all areas of the economy. They won’t in most areas. Deflation is the rule.
The difference being where rising costs will hit the economy (medical) will far outstrip declining costs (energy) for most people. Wages are steady or declining.
Thx for weighing in, txchick! Would love to hear your thoughts on timing as they evolve…
Need to see some “issues” in the financial sector IMO. Today’s been a cash register though. You could make a year’s gains in 2 hours.
ZeroHedge and Capiltalstool are on record as calling this “the big one.”
I say nothing has happened yet.
Big impulsive moves through the 200-day moving average can bounce right back up into a bull. We have to see where we close. That’s more important than intra-day moves. Then do we hit resistance on the way back up at the 200-day or not? And does the 50-day cross over the 200-day on the SPX? Watch closely to see how the market reacts to bad news - does it sell off or just ignore it?
The most bearish thing would be we just go sideways for a period of time. That would be really bearish.
I say nothing has happened yet. So I’m not playing this yet.
Remember this ? A few years later the market was much higher and then crashhh.
The Asian financial crisis was a period of financial crisis that gripped much of East Asia beginning in July 1997 and raised fears of a worldwide economic meltdown due to financial contagion.
‘nothing has happened yet’
The reason I don’t have a post today is I was in Queen Creek shooting video yesterday. Pipe farms.
Ben - what’s your YouTube channel? I searched your name, but there are gazillions of Ben Jones and housing bubble videos.
http://tinyurl.com/http-hbb-com
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCr0kVPTPfgQ9WHYvA4qB04g
Here’s what happened. I made a couple videos and the feed back I got was I needed more zing, and I agree. So I’ve been accumulating equipment and software and familiarizing myself with it. (This video stuff is completely new to me so I am on a steep curve. I am working hard to get up to speed.)
My goal is once underway to produce at least one video per week. I am going to Denver next month and a trip to Miami beach is in the works. I guess a lot will involve on the job learning, like the blog was. Anyhoo, Queen Creek; because one disaster is just not enough.
1,238 nearby properties found Queen Creek, AZ New Homes Construction for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/newhomesconstruction/Queen-Creek_AZ?ml=6
Notice these are mostly drawings. There are some new houses for sale (Beazer: Specs available!). I spent 4 hours driving past vacant lots. Models, sales offices, a few spec builds and thousands of lots. I’m using new editing software and I’ll post the video as soon as possible.
Ben Jones what are you looking for in Denver, specifically?
I have a lot (alot!) of suggestions but don’t want to waste your time if it doesn’t deliver the “zing” that you seek to capture
Love the soundtrack on the first one, Ben. It’s so wonderfully snide.
I’m trying to improve the presentation. Ask yourself, what does a bubble look like, visually? I could say, over-building, high prices, speculation, or in the case of Queen Creek, housing in an otherwise ridiculous location. (Drive til you qualify and all that.)
I would add the vast number of vacant lots represents speculation on the developers part. And the new houses built in anticipation of future buyers are the same.
Allena and Tx in one thread!
WE’RE GONNA PARTY LIKE IT’S 2006
Yo, Mugster!
Never underestimate the power of shadenfreude to gather the far-flung family ’round the table to gloat and jeer in good company.
“I’m trying to improve the presentation.”
Ben, from previous interviews I recall that you have an endearing and sincere voice. You should consider adding voice over to your videos. You can use an smart phone and basic video editor and get amazing results.
Terry Tomalin is a local web clip guy for the Tampa Bay Times. I *LOVE* his work. Short, simple, effective… very minimal production. Check out some of his web clips “Take it outside” in the middle of this page. I have no connection to this guy:
http://www.tampabay.com/sports/outdoors/
I hope you are well!
Top of Mt Jo in the Adirondacks this summer:
http://picpaste.com/pics/067a3aa612f6f4b4536c32831e7f4b93.1440460950.jpg
Pipe farms?
You mean piles of fracking pipes?
I recall how smug NY was in 1986 and early 1987, after commodities and commodity states had been crushed by OPEC. What followed was the worst recession here since the mid-1970s — worse than any since.
I thought he meant empty houses full of empty pipes, but I may have misunderstood the reference.
“Villages at Oakshire is in Atlanta City Councilwoman Joyce Sheperd’s district. She said there are four or five other subdivisions in her district that were never finished. Some are just what she calls ‘pipe farms.’ ‘They are now sitting there overgrown with pipes coming up out the ground, and nothing happening with them.’”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9176
Ah, I see. Those sound like mosquito farms.
We have gone sideways for a period of time already.
Just came back to watch today’s fun meself, tx. So glad to know you’re still out there laffing at us all.
TXCHICK!
You have to tell me when it’s safe to short the S&P. Don’t let me down, man.
Someone forgot to tell Wall Street it wasn’t supposed to start melting down until September. Jumping the gun here.
Let me be the first to say it: “Nobody saw this coming.”
LMAO. I shorted too early, but now I’m hearing “ka-CHING!”
Oil-based economies are in dire straits. In 1998 the “East Asia crisis quickly spread to Russia and caused a default - will history repeat itself? The tanking ruble is going to make hard-currency debts increasingly unpayable.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/USDRUB
Max Keiser: A prophet before his time. Here he blasts the “financial terrorists” on Wall Street.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ri0fknapFSs
Is there a risk that Marketwatch dot com headlines like these will spark a panic? What are the central planners thinking!?
After Hours Preview | Winners and Losers
• NEED TO KNOW: Stark warning that this market has room to fall
• MARKET SNAPSHOT: Dow futures plunge as much as 850 points
How panicky should we be about China?
• China’s ‘Black Monday’: 2015 stock-market gains swamped by panic
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1000 points on the opening bell. Don’t think that ever happened before!
Bulletin Dow industrials down 1,000 points as U.S. stocks plummet at opening bell »
Carnage?
Stock prices are still a little higher than they were when I got my retirement savings out of stocks because prices were too high. Or a least they were a minute ago.
Chinese stocks lost all their gains for the year? Doesn’t that mean they aren’t really lower than they were a year ago?
Panic because stock prices are merely sky high and not higher, and because interest rates might be 1/4 percent and not zero.
Panic because stock prices are merely sky high and not higher, and because interest rates might be 1/4 percent and not zero.
+1, Larry!
Stock prices are still near where they were at the end of last year (when they were WAY WAY too high!), and everyone is in a tizzy.
It’s got a lot further to fall, especially since the Fed has already used up all its ammo and can’t hit ctrl-P without destroying what’s left of its credibility (and the US dollar).
Why has gold gone up the last several weeks? I thought SOP was gold was liquidated to cover margin calls.
The flight to safe haven is just beginning. 99% of “investors” are lemmings. The rest are buying physical precious metals.
Let’s see how well that “hope ‘n change” works out for your portfolio, ‘Muricans. It appears the financial reckoning day, long deferred, has come around at last.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-24/panic-all-major-us-equity-indices-halted
If the indices end the week lower than right now, we will see them go a lot lower the next eight weeks.
And the PPT shows up right on schedule.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-24/here-comes-plunge-protection-team
What a complete joke. Just ignore this pig. Friggin’ hot air balloon anyway. Dow is maybe worth 9000 in reality, and I’m inclined to agree with HA about 5000. It’s just a casino, is all. You can bet your homesick patootie if it had been going up, trading wouldn’t have been halted.
I haven’t watched CNBC since 2008! Now I’m catching up on all the jargon!
I guess I better say ‘fare thee well’ to my obama gains! He’s golfing because this ain’t no big deal. It’s the great inequality equalizer! We are all equal!
Blaming the gov for the market crash? So…. you want the to intervene?? uhg!
#BlackMondaysMatter
Good to know that progressives won’t be puking their brains out because they don’t love money and neither should you!
The Margin
Twitter rings in its first ‘Black Monday’ with panic and wit and memes
Published: Aug 24, 2015 10:56 a.m. ET
By Barbara Kollmeyer
Markets reporter
Blue Monday? Try Black Monday. Or even Black and Blue Monday. It all fits, when you look at the 8.5% loss that the Shanghai Composite endured on Monday, which was accompanied by a whole bunch of global-market pain.
No surprise that the hashtagged term #BlackMonday is trending on Twitter, which looks to be documenting its first real market meltdown. Slightly more surprising is that the Communist Party in China itself may have helped hang the label on its disastrous markets day. This tweet came from Xinhua News, the mobile app for the state-controlled news agency of the Communist Party and People’s Republic’s central government, earlier today. (h/t Wall Street Journal MoneyBeat blog).
Of course it wasn’t just a #BlackMonday–type day for China. Lots of other markets were enduring lots of pain, including Wall Street, where the Dow industrials opened down 1,000 points, before slicing into that epic decline by midmorning.
But, as they say, keep calm and tweet on. We’ve rounded up a few of the best #BlackMonday tweets.
…
2008 redux, but this time the Fed’s shot it’s wad.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/aug/24/global-stocks-sell-off-deepens-as-panic-grips-markets-live
oh wow, my heritage intc stock is back in Bill clinton territory!
I have been equalized!
I’d like to thank Obama for allowing me to keep my dividend income, which I did not earn, someone gave it to me!
The whole computer industry was built on corporate welfare from its earliest days. If you can find people who were paying taxes back in the 40s through the 70s, you should thank them for your Intel dividends.
Stocks take massive losses while the price of gold still steady. In recent weeks physical gold and silver coins have been in high demand while paper gold dropped.
Rub roh! The plunge protection team just showed up
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-24/here-comes-plunge-protection-team
Bernacke is giving a speech for $250,000 about how he fixed all this
Let’s have some good news for a Monday
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/08/24/satellite-images-show-fast-melting-glacier-lose-perhaps-the-biggest-block-of-ice-ever/
My Drudge link clicking betters assure that glaciers don’t calve unless George Soros pays them to calve
That snowball on the Senate floor was all it took to convince me
Follow the money, sheeple!
As someone with a science background, then a legal education (not an attorney) I say WOW! to the evidence.
Talking heads on the financial channels are already talking about QE4. How’s that gonna sit with Yellens rate hike?
No rate hike coming. QE4 to Infinity is the future. Get used to it.
As I predicted yesterday
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9199#comment-2472795
a nice “hammer candle” formation on the Dow. But dang it! I logged in 15 minutes after the opening bell and missed the big move up. Happened really really fast… With all the algo program traders, HFT bots, the markets move too fast for the little retail guy.
15600 is a natural support level due to the previous high from August 2013. Scary thing is, there’s nothing but air down to the next major support level of 13600 that was set by the Oct 2012 high.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/aug/23/stephen-moore-mortgage-woes-of-the-middle-class/
Snippet: Last month I bought a house in Potomac, Md., a trade up on my current home, and was shocked to learn in the ensuing weeks that I couldn’t get a mortgage loan. First, I went to PNC bank. Then Wells Fargo. Then another. Denied. Denied. Denied.
No, I don’t feel entitled to a loan, and the banks have every right not to lend me money. But my tale of woe tells a broader tale of what is going on in the lending industry these days.
His story does not add up. If he’s “upper middle class” with a 25% down payment in hand, his loan app should be a slam dunk. He’s probably got too much debt and a low credit score for him to get denied like that. Instead of taking personal responsibility he writes an article to deflect blame to the gubmint and the banks. Hope it makes him feel better.
Agree, does not add up, I was easily able to get a preapproved mortgage in 2011 as a middle income worker bee….he does say his credit score is low, no doubt for good reason. Given his employment his credibility and honesty just might be a trifle shaky…
• Stephen Moore is a Fox News commentator and an economics contributor to Freedom Works.
“Last month I bought a house in Potomac, Md., a trade up on my current home…”
This fugg’n guy has great timing… buy at the top.
More on Stephan Moore’s credibility…
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-mh-a-newspaper-factchecks-20140805-column.html
“Moore’s conservative credentials are impeccable: A former member of the Wall Street Journal editorial board, he’s currently chief economist at the Heritage Foundation and a familiar face on Fox News and CNBC.”
Looks like he’s a “real journalist” and a neocon.
Translation: he’s a neo-con, i.e. an ideological vagrant and unregistered foreign agent for Israel’s Likud Party.
and was shocked to learn in the ensuing weeks that I couldn’t get a mortgage loan. First, I went to PNC bank. Then Wells Fargo. Then another. Denied. Denied. Denied.
Sure he can get a loan, he’ll just have to pay a bit more interest than someone with good fundamentals.
Here is Moore’s reason for being denied:
“The main reason I was denied a loan was because of a below-average credit score. This was infuriating on several levels. First, I have had two previous mortgages and in 25 years I’ve never missed a payment. How can I be a high-risk borrower? The answer is twice in 30 years I was 30 days late paying my credit card bill — and paid the hefty late fee. Even more ridiculous, I, Steve Moore, have $300 of unpaid parking tickets. The horror. How does that data point provide any useful information to a bank about whether I’m going to pay my mortgage?”
I don’t believe him. Two late CC payments do not lower your FICO that much. Chances are one of those late payments is old enough to drop off anyway. As for the parking tickets, pay the things and move on.
Of course, it’s the fault of “government regulation,” (after all he’s a Fox News Commentator) and FHA for giving loans to the poors. Maybe he should apply for FHA himself.
Oh, and irony alert — while I was reading this article which was clearly tailored for rich Republicans, I got a pop-up ad for the MacDonald’s sirloin steak. I guess rich Republicans like MacDonald’s?
I don’t believe him. Two late CC payments do not lower your FICO that much.
Agreed, plus I know people that BK’d (less than seven years ago) and are able to get mortgages at competitive rates.
Rule of thumb is 2 years. You can get a mortgage 2 years after doing a bk.
Agree. The commenters smoked him out too. Their consensus is that the bank didn’t like him because
1) His measly $300 in parking tickets. That’s not bad credit; that’s bad attitude.
2) His job writing columns and commentating on FOX News is a freelance gig on 1099, not a steady W-2 job. That too will flunk standard underwriting.
A silver lining my friends.
One less sale and a grossly inflated price.
“I don’t believe him.”
Neither do I.
Two things -
First….market open way down - last I looked about a 1/2 hour ago - 9.30 am chicago time -740 on the Dow.
Now 35 mins later - seems the PPT has entered the fray and losses cut in half. Hmmmmm…….Can you say manipulation?
Second - Just now on talk radio here in the land of utopia - a kid comes on in an ad and says - “I don’t want to wake up or go to school hungry, please give to x, y or z charity.” All I got to say about that is kid - like the rest of us - get used to it - As the PPT does its thing to try to mitigate the losses - more and more of us are gonna go to bed hungry. Yikes!!!
Just now on talk radio here in the land of utopia - a kid comes on in an ad and says - “I don’t want to wake up or go to school hungry, please give to x, y or z charity.”
The poors get free breakfast at school.
And subsidized lunches too . . . remember, it takes a village . . .
Free lunches if they qualify. My kids had friends in this boat in HS. Most of the kids would eat off campus. The poors ate the free slop at school.
“And subsidized lunches too…”
Don’t forget that dinner meal before heading home, and breakfast every Saturday morning up here in children of the corn “honkey flyover.”
Just when it seemed the news couldn’t get any worse…
Market Pulse
Dow Transports slip into correction, may signal more selling pressure
Published: Aug 24, 2015 11:08 a.m. ET
By Anora Mahmudova
Reporter
Recent bouts of sharp declines in both the Dow Transportation Average and Dow Jones Industrial Average sent both indexes well into correction territory, triggering one of the oldest ’sell’ signals. The Dow Transportation Average entered correction territory on Thursday, falling more than 10% below its December 29, 2014 peak. A correction is considered to be a fall of 10% or more from a recent peak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell into correction territory on Friday. The Dow transports, which consists of 20 companies ranging from airlines to shipping firms, is seen as a barometer of the health of the overall economy. When both indexes reach their correction lows simultaneously, according to so-called Dow theorist, more selling pressure follows in wider markets.
There’s a carnival atmosphere on Bloomberg today:
Watch live Coverage of the Global Stock Rout
From Panic to Judgment Day, Investors Struggle to Describe Rout
Zahra Hankir and Maria Levitov
August 24, 2015 — 6:08 AM PDT
Updated on August 24, 2015 — 7:21 AM PDT
Dow, S&P 500 Suffer Largest Intraday Drop Since 2011
U.S. Stocks Drop, S&P 500 Index Near Correction Amid Global Rout
Stock Trading in U.S. Will Pause If S&P 500 Reaches a 7% Plunge
China or Fed: Who Is Responsible for Global Selloff?
Panic. Judgment Day. Carnage. Meltdown. Fearful. Depressing. Psychologically draining. Wired.
As global markets tumbled, investors, strategists and asset managers across the world struggled for words to describe the selloff that wiped $490 billion from emerging-market equities, dragged Saudi stocks into a bear market and pushed Russia’s ruble toward its lowest closing level on record.
David Welch, the head of equity sales trading at Reorient Group in Hong Kong:
“I’m trying to process the whole thing. It’s just ugly.”
Michael Wang, a strategist at Amiya Capital LLP, based in London’s Mayfair:
“It makes it more stressful and psychologically draining to say the least. It means not losing your head, staying calm and not drinking too much caffeine! It will make you even more wired.”
Hertta Alava, who helps oversee the equivalent of about $395 million as the head of emerging markets at FIM Asset Management Ltd. in Helsinki:
“What a Monday! I stare a little more at Bloomberg at home, before work and after work.”
Nabil Rantisi, managing director at Mena Corp Financial Services LLC in Abu Dhabi:
“It feels like it’s judgment day. I’ve spent my entire holiday working.”
Wafik Dawood, a portfolio manager at Compass Capital in Cairo:
“The situation in Egypt is even more depressing and more intense as investors and traders were hoping recent economic developments would provide a catalyst for markets, but the situation keeps worsening as assets trade in a ‘Lehman-style’ meltdown.”
Darius McDermott, managing director of London-based fund broker, Chelsea Financial Services:
“This is a market meltdown, but it’s for different reasons than the 2008 financial crisis. We’ve had a few clients phoning in and we’ve been reminding them what their goals are and what their time frame is. Some will want access to capital as they’re fearful contagion will continue, but our clients tend to buy funds long term and some are seeing this as a decent buying opportunity.”
Sanjiv Bhasin, executive vice president at India Infoline Ltd., the country’s largest listed brokerage:
“The simple adage to be followed is fear is greater than greed and in this carnage shorting is the key.”
Nilesh Dedhia, a Mumbai-based director at Vidhi Wealth Management Ltd., which oversees about $236 million in assets:
“Just take a break and let the storm settle. We are urging clients to avoid bottom fishing.”
…
Got Crow Sandwich?
Dow ‘Death Cross’ is Pure Voodoo
“I call B.S. on the “death cross” bearish stock market omen.”
Arends wrote that just 11 days ago. Since then the Dow is down 1600 points, LOL.
Buying opportunity:
http://eyefodder.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/100-will-buy-this-car-great-depression-stock-crash.jpeg
Why do I think that this does not end well?
BlackRock Inc. is the latest company planning to finance investors who buy single-family homes, capitalizing on soaring rental demand as the U.S. homeownership rate sits at a five-decade low.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-24/blackrock-said-to-start-financing-rental-home-investors
That’d be interesting if housing demand weren’t at 20 year lows…. and falling.
That’d be interesting if housing demand weren’t at 20 year lows…. and falling in WV.
I fixed it.
….. and in the impoverished welfare state of Californica too.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-23/are-stock-markets-setting-new-black-monday
Let’s have some more good news for a Monday
Still making those Oil City plans? Well think again, because Oil City is overrun with junkies:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/the-heroin-epidemics-toll-one-county-70-minutes-eight-overdoses/2015/08/23/f616215e-48bc-11e5-846d-02792f854297_story.html
Druggies and gang bangers and idle people. People on disabilities. Over half of the rural population is like that. You cannot escape the dregs of society by moving out of the city. 40 years ago maybe. Thanks to redistribution policies since LBJ.
Sure you can, chose wisely. Most small expensive college towns dont have fatties, and idle losers.
But they sure have alot of fems and freaks.
And I don’t think their housing is very cheap, which is the point of moving to oil city.
I went to college in a small New England town, and the houses there were expensive.
yes, the higher the cost the higher the quality.
Far higher quality in rural areas.
Welfare or no welfare, those people need to live somewhere, and it’s cheaper in Podunk than in the big shiny city.
It’s not cheaper in rural areas when you factor in distance from paying employment, shopping and services, maintainence and repair costs, compensation for marginal infrastructure, travel and delivery surcharges, higher insurance premiums, “special taxes,” and lack of the “necessary” amenities (like cellular reception, public wifi, public transportation, emergency services, et al) that most take for granted in those big shiny cities.
But there’s a lot more privacy. And it certainly smells better.
“Welfare or no welfare, those people need to live somewhere, and it’s cheaper in Podunk than in the big shiny city.”
Which doesn’t mean paying a grotesquely inflated price for a depreciating house when rental rates are half the monthly cost.
Thank you for pointing that out.
Natural selection. Just one way of culling the herd.
Flash crash this am. Lesson learned. Setting up limit orders for 50% lower prices, good for next 2,3,4 months.
My limit on CVX was almost filled this morning. That is a 50% of peak. For my other limits I set them to 40% of peak. In some cases 50 percent of todays prices are 30 percent of their peak.
Set it and forget it. I am buying VDE as a compromise vs. going heavy on one energy stock.
crazy!! Who wants to “invest” in a market like that? Do you set stop losses after you buy?
This dovetails w/possible timing
Steve Liesman @steveliesman 2m2 minutes ago
Barclays now says no fed rate hike until March 2016. Had previously forecast Sept. rate hike.
schiff has been consistently correct on this one. he’s been pounding the table for a LONG time on no rate hike. he’s been saying we’ll get QE4 instead.
OK, comic relief time:
http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/08/24/ashleymadison-cybersecurity-idINKCN0QT1OH20150824
“The social impact behind this (hacking) - we’re talking about families. We’re talking about their children, we’re talking about their wives, we’re talking about their male partners,” Bryce told reporters.
“It’s going to have impacts on their lives. We’re now going to have hate crimes that are a result of this. There are so many things that are happening. The reality is … this is not the fun and games that has been portrayed.”
The investigation into the hacking has broadened to include international law enforcement, with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security joining last week. The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation and Canadian federal and provincial police are also assisting.”
You would think someone hacked the Federal Reserve, not some adultery site. Homeland Security, FBI, Interpol! All because of a bunch of cheaters. You can’t make this stuff up.
And most important of all:
“Since the hack last month, Avid Life has indefinitely postponed the adultery site’s IPO plans.”
Oh, NO!! Not the IPO!
You would think someone hacked the Federal Reserve, not some adultery site. Homeland Security, FBI, Interpol! All because of a bunch of cheaters. You can’t make this stuff up.
I thought fidelity was supposed to be sooooo last century. Why is this a problem?
The whole thing is ridiculous. How many of those .gov and .corp addresses are real, anyway? I mean, the addresses may be real, but I doubt if the people they belong to actually entered those. I’m sure most were signed up by pranksters, unbeknownst to them.
And yet, there seems to be more consternation over a sex site than the hacking of the US federal human resources database, for example.
And yet, there seems to be more consternation over a sex site than the hacking of the US federal human resources database, for example.
Didn’t you get the memo? Sex is our national religion, especially if it’s illicit. Only losers are monogamous, polyamory will soon be considered normal.
The only problem I see here is that a small group, which projects itself as old school moral and righteous, got caught with its hand in the cookie jar.
I suppose that a lot of cheaters might be afraid of being exposed. (I think they should be worried about an STD). Chances are, their spouse is also on that list, so it’s all good.
All the records of all the people with gov clearances were stolen, including the details of the confessions made by the people. To me that is worse.
There is a horrible web forum for Northern Virginia and someone posted all of the records by city on it. Man the site got real busy fast! Wife groups on facebook and stuff got linked in, and of course the comments were somewhere between rude and funny.
I have the data set but the only person I recognize is a commercial landlord that is already in prison for loan fraud.
It only counts to look at the credit card files, because those are people that paid — so it’s a solid connection.
where did the money go ??
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/china-slowdown-stocks-black-monday-investors-capture-head-of-metals-exchange-and-turn-him-over-to-police-10468905.html
If this is the beginning of a market crash, stopped watch Harry Dent will grab credit for predicting it. The problem is that he missed the stock boom from 2009 to 2014.
This is why you set buy-limit orders and go away. Adjust price as the market keeps hitting lower support levels, etc.
Don’t move here you won’t like it and may get shot…..
Six people were killed and at least 35 were wounded by gunfire in Chicago from Friday evening through Monday morning, police said.
The shootings bring the year’s total to at least 1,871, according to an analysis of a Chicago Tribune database on city shootings. That’s an increase of more than 225 over last year and more than 370 over 2013, according to Tribune data.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-chicago-shootings-murders-20150824-story.html
7 years of Obama and this is what you get, LOLZ
Whenever I can, I too, blame Obama for my misery. Why should I take credit for my own bad choices and lack of motivation?
#blacklivesmatter ??????
#honeybadgersmatter!!!
Mayor and the utopia that is Chicago are now outta bullets except in the hood as posted above……..
Facing the biggest city budget hole in recent memory, Mayor Rahm Emanuel announced Monday that he will hold three town hall meetings in the coming weeks to hear ideas from residents on how to close the gap.
Get rid of the public unions
raise retirement age to 66 for all union goons
ran a poll on that and it was over 70% -raise em high
Update: Oil Craters Through $40/bbl Floor; Housing Prices Fall
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic
Yep - this is what anyone from the utopia that is Chicago looks like regardless of summer vacation……
I the case of Otrauma’s - this is what you look like spending alot of OPM.
Forward!!!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3207790/Obama-sheds-summer-curse-just-time-daunting-fall.html
What happens to money when it goes “poof”?
ft dot com > Markets >
Commodities
August 23, 2015 4:42 pm
Angry investors capture head of China metals exchange
Lucy Hornby in Beijing
Shan Jiuliang is manhandled by investors
The head of a Chinese exchange that trades minor metals was captured by angry investors in a dawn raid and turned over to Shanghai police, as the investors attempted to force the authorities to investigate why their funds have been frozen.
Investors have been protesting for weeks after the Fanya Metals Exchange in July ceased making payments on financial investment products. The exchange, based in the southwestern city of Kunming, bought and stockpiled minor metals such as indium and bismuth, while also offering high interest, highly-liquid investment products from its offices in Shanghai and its financing branch in Kunming.
Troubles at the exchange are one of many factors contributing to turbulence in China’s financial markets, as a slowing economy exposes the weaknesses of the country’s debt-driven growth.
Some investors flew in from faraway cities to join hundreds more surrounding a luxury hotel in Shanghai before dawn on Saturday. When Fanya founder Shan Jiuliang attempted to check out, they manhandled him into a car before delivering him to the nearest police station.
Shanghai police took Mr Shan into custody and promised to work with local authorities in Yunnan province to investigate what has happened to investors’ money. They later released him without charge.
…
Bellingham, WA Housing Prices Sink 4% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/bellingham-wa-98225/home-values/
way over 06 peak
is whaling back in Bellingham ?
So ZH is saying Apple Tim Cook emailed Cramer and reversed AAPL losses. SEC violations anyone?
I got $8 off that move.
Here
https://twitter.com/todd_harrison/status/635873650634166272
Bag it and await the big crash. Set limits.
At the least, watch the trailer: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2215151/
Inequality For All.
There is a USA TV show called Mr Robot. Most of the characters aren’t very likable but the premise of the show is pretty wild. Basically trying to wipe out the records of the banks/corps to reset debt. It’s interesting that this type of stuff is being turned into TV shows.
China stock market panic: £74bn wiped off FTSE 100 - live updates
The Chinese stock market has suffered its biggest one-day plunge since 2007 Photograph: Rolex Dela Pena/EPA
Graeme Wearden and Jennifer Rankin (now) in London and Martin Farrer in Sydney (Asia crash)
Monday 24 August 2015 14.43 EDT
Hundreds of billions wiped off world’s financial markets today, as Chinese rout sends shares tumbling in Europe, Asia and the US
FTSE 100 sheds £74bn
Longest losing streak since 2003
European markets post heavy losses
VIX ‘fear index’ jumps
Photos: Markets fall around the world
Dow Jones index briefly falls 1,000 points
Chinese stock market tumbled 8.5%; biggest fall since 2007
Pop goes the Ponzi.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/24/central-bank-omnipotence-fails-stocks-melt-down-in-asia-europe-oil-plunges-dollar-swoons/
Update: Dow Crashes Through 16000 Floor
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DJIA
Crater.
Crater.
On a positive note: I’ve been thinking about visiting Australia again, I loved my 2008 trip there. With the AUD crashing hard, a return trip is suddenly a lot more affordable.
Set your limit orders.
but no stop losses, just look at the daily highs and lows today.
ARCC was at $11.01 ( a screaming steal) $14.87 now with a >10% div.
Is my cheap house coming?
Yes Muggy, it is coming soon.
Anyone one here do the home exchange thing when they travel. I am going to sign up. Seems like a great way to cut the trip costs in half.
(FXP) at $50.10 +9.56% today SHORT CHINA!
I am in this one until $195. Yes, 4x from today.
As you watch the value of your stock market mutual funds rapidly evaporate, by all means REMAIN CALM!
Do NOT run to sell! Let me get out the door first!
10-Yr Bond 1.9970 -2.78%
“sell bonds because interest rates are going up ”
uh Huh don’t hold your breath
Disruptive technology strikes again:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/08/22/how-one-german-millennial-chose-to-live-on-trains-rather-than-pay-rent/
“Why pay for anything when if I apply myself I can get it for free…”
G. Costanza
“Müller frequently travels late at night, although she tries to sleep at the apartments of relatives or friends. Often, she is accommodated by her boyfriend, her mother or grandmother.”
So, she’s not really living full time on the trains. In fact, she’s generally freeloading off people who have the conventional lifestyles (and the associated rent, utility bills, etc.) she claims to oppose. I wonder if she also takes meals at their homes?
Not sure how the article became news. Tourists did this for decades w/ a student Euro Rail pass I think, as to avoid shelling out for hotels.
LOL. Now, if you had friends everywhere you could call your chips in on, couch-surfing might allow you to avoid having your own place. It is a cheap, poor college student’s app dream.
Adams Morgan(Washington, DC) Housing Prices Crater 15% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/adams-morgan-washington-dc/home-values/
This guy is really trying to scare ya!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/stock-up-on-canned-food-for-stock-market-crash-warns-former-gordon-brown-advisor-10469509.html
Damian McBride appeared to suggest that the stock market dip could lead to civil disorder or other situations where it would be unreasonable for someone to leave the house.
“Advice on the looming crash, No.1: get hard cash in a safe place now; don’t assume banks & cashpoints will be open, or bankcards will work,” he tweeted.
“Crash advice No.2: do you have enough bottled water, tinned goods & other essentials at home to live a month indoors? If not, get shopping.
“Crash advice No.3: agree a rally point with your loved ones in case transport and communication gets cut off; somewhere you can all head to.”
I’m not sure what he’s so afraid of considering rapidly falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels accelerate the economy like nothing else.
sure, seeing trillion$ in shareholder equity vanish, always is good for the economy. I know I spend more with a $5 in my wallet vs a $50.
There is nothing to fear from falling housing and oil prices. Cheer up.
Few of the thundering hordes have stocks anyway. they are living paycheck to paycheck.
Perhaps if you work in the yacht business you should stock up on canned goods.
Brooklyn, NY Housing Prices Fall 13% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/new-york-ny-11217/home-values/
Did you get all of the Obama that you voted for, LOLZ
Pundits seem divided between those cautioning to not buy the dip (too risky) and those who believe the correction will be short, suggesting now might be a good time to buy.
I realize it’s different here in the U.S., but note that China’s market carnage has played out all summer long.
S&P 500
1,893 -77.68 -3.94%
Market Pulse
Jeffrey Gundlach says stocks have further to fall
By MarketWatch
Published: Aug 24, 2015 2:59 p.m. ET
U.S. stocks are likely to see another wave of heavy selling pressure before the market correction runs its course, DoubleLine Capital co-founder Jeffrey Gundlach said Monday, according to Reuters. The widely followed investment manager said U.S. equities are in a “mode of uncertainty, at best,” and that markets “don’t correct all of this in three days,” according to the report. U.S. stocks are sharply lower in volatile trade, with the S&P 500 SPX, -3.94% down 3.8% at 1,896.70 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -3.57% down 610 points, or 3.7%, at 15,850.
…
Shanghai Composite Index
3,058.93
Change
-150.97 -4.70%
Volume
122.94m
Aug 25, 2015 10:03 a.m.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/shcomp?countrycode=cn&mod=MW_story_quote
I dunno but this afternoon another career-change experience happened personally to me. So this evening I put a sell order for another month and a half paychecks worth of stock funds.
‘I dunno but this afternoon another career-change experience happened personally to me. So this evening I put a sell order for another month and a half paychecks worth of stock funds.’
Not a pink slip Bill?
Not quite.
At what point is oil a buy? Is $30 the time to back up the truck?
Be funny to see Hillary get the same treatment as Snowden in this country, along with everyone in the state department who exchanged emails with her and knew that she was using an unauthorized server. People forget, but the original story about her running her own server came out because some hacker in the Ukraine had cracked it. Maybe that was a cover story and it disappeared pretty quickly, but nonetheless it was an interesting data point to this whole episode.
sounds good to me. Good riddance Clowntoons. Let’s work on defeating the dam Bush legacy too.
I remember when Bush and Cheney wiped the GOP server. Google it.
Is it just me, or are the 24/7 financial doom and gloom MSM stories getting old?
Any thoughts on how many more 6%+ losses it will take to wring the froth out of the Chinese stock market?
CNN Money
China stocks plunge again as global selloff continues
By Charles Riley
El-Erian: ‘This correction will be a good thing’
China stocks opened sharply lower on Tuesday, extending a selloff that has unnerved investors around the globe.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite dropped 6% in the first few minutes of trading. Losses were sharper on China’s smaller Shenzhen Composite, which shed 6.9% at the open.
The Shanghai Composite has now declined 42% from its June 12 peak, erasing all gains year to date.
…
Oil prices edge up but market remains cautious as Asian stocks keep tumbling
Reuters
6 minutes ago
An attendant cleans the window of a car near a sign displaying the petrol station’s current fuel prices in yen in Tokyo August 24, 2015. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
By Henning Gloystein
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Crude oil markets edged up but remained near 6-1/2-year lows on Tuesday, following a session that saw prices fall as much as 6 percent after a Chinese equities rout sent global markets into a tailspin.
Asian stocks resumed their slides on Tuesday, with China’s and Japan’s major stock indexes tanking again in early trade, sparking fears of a hard landing for the Chinese economy, the world’s most important growth engine.
Crude oil markets reacted cautiously in early trading, edging up but remaining at levels comparable to the peak of the global financial crisis in 2009, suggesting that worries over the economic outlook in China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, are now at least equally as big as previous concerns of oversupply that has plagued the market for over a year.
U.S. crude futures were trading up 32 cents at $38.56 per barrel at 0210 GMT, while Brent was up 27 cents at $42.96.
Goldman Sachs said that while China’s turmoil would not lead to a global recession, it did expect the trouble to result in weak commodities.
…
Stocks in China Continue to Dive as Global Markets Elsewhere Stabilize
By NEIL GOUGHAUG. 24, 2015
An electronic board showed prices at the Australian Stock Exchange in Sydney on Tuesday. Volatility continued to dominate early trading in Asia.
Credit Rick Rycroft/Associated Press
The Latest
■ In China, the benchmark Shanghai composite index opened 6.4 percent lower.
■ Most other Asian markets stabilized or rallied modestly, swinging from losses to gains. Japanese stocks opened sharply lower but recovered.
■ The international and American oil benchmarks rebounded tentatively, despite concerns about oversupply.
■ Stock markets in the United States traded in a volatile session on Monday, with the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index closing down nearly 4 percent.
After a three-day rout that erased nearly $3 trillion in value from stocks globally, markets on Tuesday showed signs that selling pressures were easing.
Volatility continued to dominate early trading in Asia, but many regional markets swung from losses to gains for the first time in days. Stocks in Japan opened sharply lower but had recovered by late morning, while shares in Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea were staging a modest rally.
Across Asia, the free fall of the past few days appeared to have ended — except in China, where Shanghai stocks opened 6.4 percent lower after Monday’s 8.5 percent plunge.
…
The dollars in your wallet just got dramatically more valuable today. Got a empty wallet? Holding a bunch of debt? On the hook for payments on a depreciating asset?
You’re screwed.
Um, yeah. Until the Fed cranks up its printing press for another counterfeiting binge.
Whoever gets the timing of QE4 right wins the multi-billion dollar prize.
Which simply craters demand even further.
You following?
I cannot believe I am writing this, but I did a little investigation of Bernie Sanders on civil liberties. He voted against the “Patriot Act” all the time, voted on many bills against other Orwellian Surveillance State measures, and seems to be less likely to be a war monger.
He’s Jewish, so I fear he is a Zionist.
But I now think if I had a gun against my head and Bernie Sanders was running against Trump, Jeb, McShame, Santorum, Huckabee, and any other candidate besides Rand Paul, I would vote for Sanders.
but…I am a voluntaryist. I do not vote. I am a capitalist. I do not sanction socialism.
World
From Venezuela to Iraq to Russia, Oil Price Drops Raise Fears of Unrest
By CLIFFORD KRAUSS and RICK GLADSTONE
AUG. 24, 2015
Members of an Iraqi oil police force guarding a field near Basra last week. Iraqis have protested shortages of government services.
Credit Essam Al-Sudani/Reuters
Oil, the lifeblood of many countries that produce and sell it, appears to be rapidly turning into an ever-cheaper economic curse.
A year ago, the international price per barrel of oil was about $103. By Monday, the price was about $42, roughly 6 percent lower than on Friday.
In oil-endowed Iraq, where an Islamic State insurgency and fractious sectarian politics are growing threats, a new source of instability erupted this month with violent protests over the government’s failure to provide reliable electricity and explain what has been done with all the promised petroleum money. In Russia, a leading oil producer, consumers are now paying far more for imports, largely because of their currency’s plummeting value. In Nigeria and Venezuela, which rely almost completely on oil exports, fears of unrest and economic instability are building. In Ecuador, where oil revenue has fallen by nearly half since last year, tens of thousands of demonstrators pour into the streets every week, angered by the government’s economic policies.
The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, is in a new downturn.
Even in wealthy Saudi Arabia, where the ruling family spends oil money lavishly to preserve its legitimacy, the government has been burning through roughly $10 billion a month in foreign exchange holdings to help pay expenses, and it is borrowing in the financial markets for the first time since 2007. Other Arab countries in the Persian Gulf that are dependent on oil exports, including Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain, are facing fiscal deficits for the first time in two decades.
While the price has been declining for months, forecasts have always been hedged with the assumption that oil would eventually stabilize or at least not stay low for long. But new anxieties about frailties in China, the world’s most voracious consumer of energy, have raised fears that the price of oil, now 30 percent lower than it was just a few months ago, could remain depressed far longer than even the most pessimistic projections, and do even deeper damage to oil exporters.
“The pain is very hard for these countries,” said René G. Ortiz, former secretary general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and former energy minister of Ecuador. “These countries dreamed that these low prices would be very temporary.”
Mr. Ortiz estimated that all major oil exporting countries had lost a total of $1 trillion in oil sales because of the price decline over the last year.
“The apparent weakness in the Chinese economy is radiating out into the world,” said Daniel Yergin, the vice chairman of IHS, a leading provider of market information, and the author of two seminal books on the history of the oil industry, “The Prize” and “The Quest.”
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Selfish Hoarder’s Limits rule:
wants
credit cards (Visa, Master Card)
high end cars Any car company makes these
vacations / hotels, airlines, e.g. Hilton, Southwest
Luxury goods / Tiffany
Houses and luxury apartments Pulte, KB homes, Avalon Bay
technology Intel, Apple
Put buy limits on the above at 30% to 40% of their peak price
needs
personal care Colgate/palmolive
reasonable apartment REIT equity residential
energy Chevron, Exxon, Hess, Valero
Food Fresh Del Monte Produce
Alcohol Diageo,
tobacco Altria Group
Put buy limits on the above at 40% to 50% of their peak price.
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You will thank me l8tr
A Warning on China Seems Prescient
AUG. 24, 2015
Kenneth Rogoff, a crisis expert.
Credit Gleb Shchelkunov/Kommersant Photo, via Getty Images
Andrew Ross Sorkin
DEALBOOK
Kenneth Rogoff has long warned of a potential financial crisis in China.
Mr. Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University, accurately predicted the eurozone debt crisis and for years has been telling anyone who would listen that China posed the next big threat to the global economy. He is starting to look right, again.
“In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could,” Mr. Rogoff said on Monday from Cambridge, Mass., repeating a favorite line from Rudi Dornbusch, the German economist. (Mr. Rogoff sat in on Mr. Dornbusch’s class at M.I.T. in 1977.)
Mr. Rogoff, who is a chess grandmaster, has made a career of studying financial crises. After the 2008 financial crisis, Mr. Rogoff co-wrote “This Time Is Different,” a seminal book that examined eight centuries of financial crises.
Every financial crisis, he and his co-author, Carmen M. Reinhart, concluded, stems from the same simple problem: too much debt.
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