November 25, 2015

Some Figure Prices May Be Nearing Their Peak

A report from Bisnow. “The other real estate sectors may have picked up this year in North Texas, but, make no mistake, multifamily was still the darling of commercial real estate for 2015. Many deals are seeing several types of buyers competing for the same assets, and private investors and midsized companies are stepping up into bigger deals with the money they’ve made over the last few years. They’re taking that equity, buying bigger deals, upgrading their portfolios and taking advantage of the economies of scale, says Marcus & Millichap national multi-housing group senior director Al Silva. NOI growth has contributed more to appreciation in this market (especially Class-B and C space) than low rates have. Al’s marketing Villa Bonita, a Class-C apartment complex in Dallas. Between 2012 and 2015, that property went from an NOI of $530k/year to $900k/year, a 67% increase.”

“Al tells us there are still real value-add opportunities out there, they’re just harder to find. The market is not overpriced across the board, he says; just don’t expect the same frenzied growth forever. No one is building any new B and C apartments, and the rent growth is sustained across DFW, Al says. Just a couple of years ago, not everyone was convinced that major rent growth was sustainable here; now, everyone knows it and that has helped drive down cap rates. As a result, DFW is beginning to look more like gateway and coastal markets with investors expecting appreciation and rent growth.”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “The number of homes for sale in North Texas has inched up for the first time in more than two years. Agents sold 8,138 single-family homes in October in the more than two dozen counties included in the North Texas numbers. In October, 20,254 preowned single-family homes were listed for sale with real estate agents, according to data from the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and the North Texas Real Estate Information Systems.”

“Dr. James Gaines, chief economist with the Real Estate Center, said homeowners who are having houses built might also be putting their current homes on the market. ‘Some figure that prices may be nearing their peak and want to cash out,’ he said.”

The Daily Journal of Commerce in Washington. “Seattle’s rental market seems to be softening a bit as all those new units under construction start to have an impact. Billy Pettit, senior VP at Pillar Properties, said he’s seeing signs that demand is slowing down. Market analysts are still reporting 95 to 97 percent occupancy rates for Seattle properties, he said, ‘but when we call (the properties) they’re more like 92 to 94 percent on the high end.’

“Pettit was part of a panel discussing multifamily trends in the Puget Sound area. ‘The next 12 months will be really telling,’ said fellow panelist Chris Rossman, VP at Wolff Co. ‘We’ll see how deep demand really is.’”

“Panelists said there’s one product we won’t see much of anytime soon from local developers: condos. Claudio Guincher, president of Continental Properties, said he’s sold 88 of the 117 condos in Vik, a complex in Ballard that will be done in January. Guincher said he chose to do condos because Ballard was ‘awash with apartments.’ The units have been selling for $550 a foot, he said, and demand has been shallow. ‘Young workers don’t want to get bogged down with a condo if they switch jobs,’ Guincher said.”

Vegas Inc. in Nevada. “Las Vegas builders sold the fewest homes and pulled the fewest permits in months in October, a new report shows. And while business this year remains above 2014 levels, one analyst doesn’t expect ‘any notable improvement’ in demand next year. Builders also pulled 556 new-home permits last month, a ‘disappointing’ sum and the lowest monthly tally since January, Home Builders Research founder Dennis Smith wrote.”

“Smith noted that Las Vegas’ housing market faces a number of roadblocks, including stagnant incomes and high rates of underwater homeowners. These and other issues ’seem to be hanging around like an unwanted house guest,’ Smith wrote.”

The Wall Street Journal. “The prolonged slump in crude prices is rippling beyond the oil industry into areas of the North American economy that, until recently, had managed to avoid the worst of the downturn. Signs of that distress are spreading throughout once-booming oil-producing regions across North America. Sales of single-family homes in Houston fell 10% on the year in October, the first double-digit decline this year, according to the local association of real-estate agents. Restaurants in Texas and the Southwest have experienced a drop in revenue and customer traffic, industry tracker Black Box Intelligence said in a recent report.”

“The slowdown is being felt acutely by towns in western North Dakota, the heart of the Bakken formation. Newly built apartment complexes and hotels in the regional hub of Williston stand half-empty, victims of disappearing oil field work crews. Williston rents have fallen by half from their peak in 2013, according to a survey by a local apartment management association.”

“John Sessions, who co-owns a real-estate developer called Bakken Housing Co., said his Eagle Crest multifamily apartment complex in Williston opened in February, but is still at 65% capacity. ‘Two years ago, it’d have been full up in two months,’ he said. ‘Back then, you could write a business plan with premium rents more akin to Seattle or parts of New York City due to the dearth of housing and seemingly endless flow of inbound potential employees in the oil patch.’”

KGW Portland in Oregon. “The stars of an HGTV show are coming to Oregon next week, but they’re not coming to film. They will be here for a seminar to teach people how to flip houses for a big profit. Tarek and Christina El Moussa, of the show Flip or Flop, remodel run-down homes in California, and sell them for big profits. Their traveling seminar has been advertising on Facebook and Instagram saying you can ‘…learn how to flip houses in the Portland area for a profit without using your own funds.’”

“Scrolling through the hundreds of comments on a sponsored Instagram post, most go like this: ‘Stay out of Portland!! You’re preying on low income families and marketing to out of state buyers that are pushing locals out. You are not welcome!!’”

“There are six stops for this seminar from November 30 through December 5. It will make stops in Eugene, Salem, Portland, Vancouver and Longview. Some people on social media promise to picket the locations.”




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58 Comments »

Comment by Prime+1
2015-11-25 04:12:06

What is hilarious about the Dallas market is that they said the exact same things about the Phoenix market in 2005.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-11-25 06:12:50

And take a look at Seattle.

Seattle, WA Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa-98199/home-values/

Comment by taxpayers
2015-11-25 06:52:01

movoto.com reporting has fallen apart
m.o.m. only reporting
?realtor pressure?

Comment by taxpayers
2015-11-25 07:06:08

Zillow- shows 2 different predictions
if you go in w city-state you get flat for my hood
if you click on neighborhood for a listing in my hood it says +3%

they have no credibility

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-11-25 08:48:39

Nassau County, FL Housing Prices Plunge 6% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/nassau-county-fl/home-values/

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-25 04:41:43

‘Many deals are seeing several types of buyers competing for the same assets, and private investors and midsized companies are stepping up into bigger deals with the money they’ve made over the last few years. They’re taking that equity, buying bigger deals, upgrading their portfolios and taking advantage of the economies of scale’

I’ve been pointing this out quite a bit. Read their websites, listen to their radio shows. This multifamily thing is a bubble and they are fanning across the country driving up rents in every nook and cranny of the country.

Thanks Mel and Janet!

‘NOI growth has contributed more to appreciation in this market (especially Class-B and C space) than low rates have. ..a Class-C apartment complex in Dallas. Between 2012 and 2015, that property went from an NOI of $530k/year to $900k/year, a 67% increase’

Well aren’t you proud of yourself Al, and all you did was throw up a little paint and sent out certified letters.

Remember folks, this is the US government funding this thing:

“No one is building any new B and C apartments”

B&C are lower priced apartments. So if no one is building them, and all the B&C are being bought, renovated and rents raised, what’s going to happen? What the F!!! is going on in DC? Can’t you see what you are doing to the poorest people in the country?

‘investors expecting appreciation and rent growth’

And they are paying for it. This will be their undoing. Flipping, refinancing, lower and lower returns on amounts borrowed. Paying top dollar, and expecting rent growth (from a frenzy, mind you) and appreciation (also from a frenzy) at the same time.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-25 04:49:32

‘Two years ago, it’d have been full up in two months,’ he said. ‘Back then, you could write a business plan with premium rents more akin to Seattle or parts of New York City due to the dearth of housing and seemingly endless flow of inbound potential employees’

http://www.sadtrombone.com/

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-11-25 06:24:06

“Remember folks, this is the US government funding this thing:”

Are the Fed and the GSEs technically part of the U.S. government?

Comment by taxpayers
2015-11-25 07:29:24

yes, next question

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-11-25 06:26:55

“Can’t you see what you are doing to the poorest people in the country?”

Seems like the War on Poverty has taken on a new meaning in the era of government-sponsored rent inflation.

Comment by taxpayers
2015-11-25 12:50:00

section 8- bama phone and stamps

Comment by aNYCdj
2015-11-25 14:08:18

what if you are too RICH for section 8? uh oh

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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-25 04:47:41

‘Guincher said he chose to do condos because Ballard was ‘awash with apartments.’ The units have been selling for $550 a foot, he said, and demand has been shallow.’

‘Young workers don’t want to get bogged down with a condo if they switch jobs’

That’s $55,000 for 100 square feet, in what’s basically an apartment. I’ve lived in apartments. I can remember a hallway or closet that might have been 100 square feet. I don’t think it would have been worth $55,000 to me.

 
Comment by taxpayers
2015-11-25 04:58:36

Wow
Rents fallen by half”?
The oil crash I big already

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-25 05:36:45

This is the WSJ blog version. See the photo at the top:

‘Partially completed buildings stand during construction at the Williston Apartments luxury development in Williston, North Dakota. After struggling to house thousands of migrant roughnecks during the boom, the state faces a new real-estate crisis as the frenzied drilling of the boom hasn’t lasted long enough to support the oil-fueled building explosion.’

‘The ripple effects of low oil prices can be seen world-wide, even in places like the Chili’s Grill & Bar chain. The restaurant chain’s operator, Brinker International Inc., blamed the price decline for its weak results in some U.S. states that rely on the energy industry, Chester Dawson reports. Other areas hit hard by the oil industry’s downturn, but not directly associated with the sector, include real estate in Houston, car sales in Calgary, Alberta, and hotels in Williston, N.D.’

‘the frenzied drilling of the boom hasn’t lasted long enough’

Do people even know what they are saying anymore? How many “frenzies” can go on at any time, and what if they had “gone on long enough”, these apartments would still be empty.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-11-25 06:18:54

‘Partially completed buildings stand during construction at the Williston Apartments luxury development in Williston, North Dakota.”

Future Syrian refugee housing?

“After struggling to house thousands of migrant roughnecks during the boom, the state faces a new real-estate crisis as the frenzied drilling of the boom hasn’t lasted long enough to support the oil-fueled building explosion.’

I’m trying to visualize a luxury apartment complex overrun by migrant roughnecks.

 
 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2015-11-25 05:11:59

Real estate taxes going up big in oil states
Beauracrats know it’s this last chance to grab
In Texas it will be brutal

 
Comment by oxide
2015-11-25 05:40:41

“You’re preying on low income families and marketing to out of state buyers that are pushing locals out.”

Well that makes sense. I actually kinda liked Flip or Flop. While Tarek and Christina themselves are bland and heartless, I give them credit for bringing some dignity back to those run down houses. But the show always glossed over the final sale. The open house is populated with a bunch of locals who quite obviously can’t pony up a payment on a $650K flip, yet house always conveniently sells to give them a $40-60K profit. Equity locusts?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-11-25 06:31:30

“I give them credit for bringing some dignity back to those run down houses.”

What about the homeless families living nearby who couldn’t find a place to live in which they could either afford to rent or purchase? What kind of dignity do large and growing homeless populations bring to an area?

Comment by Bluto
2015-11-25 12:04:26

Flippers have an adverse effect on middle income people too when they buy with 100% cash, in nearly every case anyone making an offer with a mortgage (no matter how strong) will be ignored, I experienced this personally several times. FWIW I was trying to buy a 3/2 in a decent neighborhood and was fine with a place that needed minor to moderate repairs and/or updating, the sort of stuff I can do myself…unfortunately locally that is just what the legions of flippers were after too.

 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2015-11-25 06:53:16

she’s always dressed for manual labor and the flip always makes a profit

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-25 05:42:23

“The enclosed shopping mall is mature,” said Scott Nelson, vice president of development at Macerich, moderator of the Nov. 20 Valley Partnership panel. “Phoenix has the highest (square footage) of retail space per capita in the U.S. We either need to grow into the available retail or re-purpose it.”

‘Responding to an audience question, Moloznik agreed that while living in downtown Phoenix was generating increased residential densities, it was still inadequate to support a downtown grocery. “Grocers have a very traditional model, and getting one to look at the requirements of going downtown, such as below-grade parking and deliveries, is a challenge,” he said. “Grocers do not like the ideas of unloading via an elevator.”

‘Mackay said that sense of community is making a difference to help local retailers succeed. “People tell us they want the ability to have someplace nearby to go and gather,” she said.’

Yep, I get up every morning yearning for the ability to gather.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-11-25 06:11:55

“People tell us they want the ability to have someplace nearby to go and gather,”

Maybe that explains the large gatherings of homeless people around some areas of downtown San Diego?

 
Comment by scdave
2015-11-25 09:48:37

they want the ability to have someplace nearby to go and gather ??

Maybe if your a teenager…

 
Comment by inchbyinch
2015-11-25 11:15:18

Rick C*rus* (owns The Grove - West Los Angeles) is a very wealthy lifestyle center developer. He is in the people want a “community” camp as well,, but my rebuttal has always been, a cup of java, a glass of beer, doesn’t not create the hunt and gather urge, for merchandise stores. Being on the mall, and spending are two different animals. It’s great for the owner who needs to lease space, not so hot if people aren’t shopping. Just my opinion.

The idle mommy upper middle-class love lifestyle centers to hang at in, have the kids participate in activities (great PR), but does it really increase sales per sq ft? Rental Watch, your take?

 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-11-25 06:01:32

Parabolic price blowout? CHECK

Sales volume trending towards zero? CHECK

Ever looser lending standards sucking in ever worse subprime credit risk buyers to purchase homes with no skin in the game? CHECK

Porcine beauticians offering repeated assurances that it’s different this time? CHECK

Prices falling year-over-year in all 50 states.

Buckle up.

Comment by Professor Cut-n-paste
2015-11-25 06:13:07

Thanks for the cut-n-paste assist!

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-11-25 06:23:35

And crater to you.

Comment by MD
2015-11-25 17:18:34

Lol - I love this blog. As a renter, I can’t wait to see what happens next.

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Comment by redmondjp
2015-11-25 22:50:29

And as somebody who has my house almost paid off, I’m, right there with you.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-11-26 03:36:59

A near full commitment to the losses on a depreciating asset. Now your posts make sense.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Jingle Male
2015-11-27 08:00:27

HA depends check: CHECK.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-11-25 06:08:43

“Al tells us there are still real value-add opportunities out there, they’re just harder to find.”

What’s the meaning again of this latest buzz word, ‘value-add’? Is it code for multi-family subsidies from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? If so, why not just call it ‘real estate welfare’ or some other more apt description?

“The market is not overpriced across the board, he says; just don’t expect the same frenzied growth forever.”

Stein’s Law still applies in this latest New Era for real estate: Anything which cannot continue forever will stop.

“DFW is beginning to look more like gateway and coastal markets with investors expecting appreciation and rent growth.”

Refer to Stein’s Law.

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-11-25 06:14:44

Santa Barbara County, CA Housing Craters; Prices Plunge 10% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/santa-barbara-county-ca/home-values/

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-11-25 06:18:24

7,004 nearby properties found Portland, OR Real Estate and Homes for Sale

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Portland_OR?ml=4

2,392 nearby properties found Portland, OR Price Reduced Homes for Sale

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Portland_OR/show-price-reduced?ml=4

34% of Portland sellers slashed their price at least once.

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-11-25 06:19:40

Potomac, MD Housing Prices Plunge 6% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/potomac-md/home-values/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-25 06:22:05

The following links are from the comments section to this post:

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9344

‘Two Seattle City Council members say the situation at one South Seattle apartment building is emblematic of displacement and gentrification occurring throughout the city. Councilmembers Kshama Sawant and Nick Licata say landlords eager to take advantage of the hot housing market are increasing rents to push low-income tenants out.’

‘Sahro Farah and her neighbors say their landlord gave them an ultimatum after buying 6511 Rainier Ave. S. this summer: Sign new leases with higher rents or get out. She says the rent for the two-bedroom apartment she shares with her five children was scheduled to increase Thursday from $550 a month to $1,550.’

‘The three-story, 18-unit structure was sold to 6511 Rainier LLC in July, according to King County records. Valdez said Haglund isn’t to blame because he bought the building from an owner who had allowed it to deteriorate. “Carl’s going to make improvements, but in order to make improvements he needs money and the money has to come from somewhere, from rents,” Valdez said, suggesting the council members should allocate money for repairs if they want to keep the rents down.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-25 06:24:36

‘There Are Plenty of New Apartments Being Built—Just Not Affordable Ones’

‘She examines a recent analysis published on a New York Fed blog by the economists Jonathan McCarthy and Richard Peach. They found that price of housing is increasing a whole lot more for those at the bottom of the economic ladder than for those at the top, even when controlling for the possibility that growing utilities bills are responsible for the increasingly heavy burden on renters.’

‘That’s especially troubling because it means that even relatively affordable apartments are quickly becoming too expensive for low-income families, says White. The reason for this gap is what construction projects developers are deciding to pursue these days. The Fed researchers took a look at housing supply and found that there’s a lot more construction happening at the top of the market, where developers and builders are quickly getting luxury apartments to market.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-25 06:33:47

‘Next for Albuquerque’s Rembe: More luxury apartments’

‘Under construction and now vertical is a three-story mixed-use apartment complex with retail spaces on the bottom floor. Rembe said the last phase will include a 50-unit high-end apartment complex, which will be built on a vacant lot behind the existing buildings. Details are still being finalized, but Rembe said the building will likely be three to four stories tall with high-end urban rental units.’

“I’m trying to attract high-income baby boomers,” Rembe said. “I want to push the rents on these.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-25 06:36:38

‘Renters in downtown Chicago feeling the pinch of escalating monthly prices could see relief as new apartments are being built faster than landlords are likely to fill them, which could translate into more stable or even declining rents over the next few years, according to a report released this week.’

‘With a record 3,100 rental units coming online this year, followed by 3,500 and 4,500 units in subsequent years, supply will soon outpace demand, said the report on the state of the downtown rental and condominium markets. And occupancy has slipped to 93.7 percent, down half a percent from last year.’

‘So a market currently in balance could soon see an excess of apartments, with landlords willing to cut deals to fill them, said Ron DeVries, a vice president of Appraisal Research Counselors.’

“How much rents may or may not fall will really be a function of what the owners are thinking in terms of trying to balance that income with occupancy,” DeVries said. “If your objective is to fill the building more, you’re probably going to need to cut rents in order to capture that demand.”

‘If price relief is coming, it isn’t evident yet for downtown renters. Prices in the newer buildings with more amenities like washers and dryers are called Class A and averaged $2.82 per square foot, up 6 percent from a year ago. The average rent this year among Class A units is $2,436, up from $2,288 last year, DeVries said.’

‘Rents in luxury buildings, the best of the Class A, are even higher, rising nearly 5 percent year over year and now averaging $2,652, he said.’

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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-25 06:41:07

‘Lenders will keep pouring money into apartment properties over the next two years, originating about the same volume of loans in 2016 and 2017—with slight increases—that they are likely to close in 2015, according to the latest Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), an industry trade group.’

‘Lenders will likely originate a total of $224 billion in permanent loans to multifamily properties in 2015, according to MBA. That’s a 15 percent increase from the $195 billion they lent in 2014, which in turn marked a 13 percent increase from $173 billion in multifamily originations in 2013. That year marked an 18 percent increase in originations from 2012. Lending volume can’t grow like that forever. The growth this year already caught most experts by surprise.’

“The volume in 2015 is higher than most people anticipated,” says Woodwell.’

‘In the meantime, low interest rates support high property values, encourage potential investors to buy more assets and existing property owners to refinance. All these factors increase demand for financing. And lenders continue to be eager to lend on apartment properties.’

‘The lenders growing the fastest in 2015 include banks and agency lenders, who make loans to apartment properties based on the programs set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They increased the amount of mortgage debt they have outstanding to commercial and apartment properties by $15 billion in the second quarter of 2015. Giant loans on large portfolios of apartment properties account for much of the growth. The federal officials who effectively govern Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also made this growth possible. Halfway through the year, they tinkered with the limits on how much the agencies can lend, so that many loans to affordable and workforce housing properties don’t count towards the agencies’ caps on lending.’

‘Lenders are expected to originate $225 billion in permanent loans on apartment properties in 2016, roughly the same as in 2015. They are expected to originate $227 billion in 2017, a tiny increase. Over the long term, the volume of loans lenders make should continue to gradually grow.’

“There is natural growth in the system,” says Woodwell. “Over the long term, one does see property values increasing, while completions increase the inventory of apartments that need financing.”

‘a 15 percent increase from the $195 billion they lent in 2014, which in turn marked a 13 percent increase from $173 billion in multifamily originations in 2013. That year marked an 18 percent increase in originations from 2012′

Here’s your bubble. In the future there will be a picture next to asshat in the dictionary.

Asshat:

Example

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-11-25 06:24:52

Distressed-Debt Losses Worst Since 2008 - “It’s Not Just Energy, It’s Everything”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-24/distressed-debt-losses-worst-2008-its-not-just-energy-its-everything

Mountains of toxic worthless mortgage paper.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-25 06:54:53

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9326

‘There are record prices happening in Denver, record prices happening in other markets. Whether it’s volume or whether it’s prices or the amount of construction, it’s just unprecedented’

‘What you’re seeing in apartments now is the equivalent of what you would have found in high-end condos 10 years ago.’

‘Schrager says developers default to luxury units right now because land costs, architects and labor are at an all-time high. ‘It’s costing X number of dollars just to put a shovel in the ground and start a project, so for the little bit of incremental cost to build that A-quality property, it’s worth it’

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-25 06:57:10

‘The root of Sydney and Melbourne’s housing crisis: we’re building the wrong thing’

‘Because few families can afford detached housing in the inner and middle suburbs, more are being pushed into the outer suburbs and the fringes of Sydney and Melbourne. It is still possible to find such affordable housing in the outer and fringe suburbs of Melbourne, but not in Sydney. A detached house costs a minimum of $600,000 even in the remotest corners of Sydney. The only affordable option for most of these home seekers is a unit in these outer suburban locations.’

‘There is no short term fix. In the long term more resident and migrant families are likely to seek affordable housing elsewhere, or in the case of migrants, may by-pass Australia altogether. Those who choose to stay will have to make adjustments to their life-style as by delaying starting a family.’

‘On the other hand, a glut of high-rise apartments is inevitable, although it is being masked by the long lead time in the completion of newly approved apartment projects. This is because the recent surge in approvals is way above the need for such dwellings. This is especially the case in Melbourne. The apartments being approved are predominantly tiny 60 square metre or smaller dwellings with no access to protected outdoor space. They are totally unsuitable for raising a family. They are tiny because most investors prefer to buy at prices below $600,000.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-25 07:08:45

‘Southwest Florida’s rental crunch is poised to get some much-needed relief. Crews have begun clearing trees from a 32.5-acre tract of vacant property along Cattlemen Road, where 360 apartment units are planned.’

‘The complex is the latest in a rush by multi-family developers to meet the soaring demand for affordable leases. Rents in this area are climbing, and vacancy numbers are among the lowest in the nation.’

‘The market rate for a basic three-bedroom rental in Sarasota and Manatee counties has grown to $1,368 — making this area among the priciest in Florida, according to industry researcher RealtyTrac Inc. Rental occupancy rates top 90 percent in most parts of Southwest Florida.’

“We have seen a really tight market the first half of the year,” Scott Corbridge, property manager with Sarasota Management and Leasing. “But we have recently seen a glut in the larger, $2,000-a-month rentals, although we continue to see a big demand for $1,500 and under. . . . When you think of jobs coming into this area, most are in the range.”

 
 
 
Comment by inchbyinch
2015-11-25 07:12:58

Sam Zell (Equity) is one fascinating guy. I’ve been watching him in roundtables, interviews, and speeches. His family fled Poland 12 hours before the Nazis invaded. Reminds me of the Nathan Shapell story. He was a holocaust survivor who built quite an empire himself, building out PUDs with a Community Grocery Store anchored Shopping Center nearby. Men who determined to live life on their terms. Gotta respect the smarts and focus.

 
Comment by inchbyinch
2015-11-25 07:17:29

Ben
Before real estate became the economic placebo of a functioning economy, it was a great business. Do you think the business model will ever return to normal in our lifetimes, or do you think the residual effects of the last 12 years are a game changer?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-11-25 07:56:26

Houses are never profitable unless you’re building them for a buyer.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-25 08:39:51

I recently posted a PDF I found showing a huge explosion in GSE funding in starting in 1986, along with a huge increase in house prices. They went from 25% of the market to around 45%. Now it’s over 90%. When mistakes are made, and then compounded over and over, it’s hard to even know what the starting point was. Yesterday I was listening to these financial “experts”. They were going on about how they used to have 8% mortgages and thought they were great at the time. One guy says, “of course, house prices have quadrupled since then.”

Sure, there are people who will say, “they” will never let house prices fall. Uh, prices did fall, a lot, just a few years ago. The first house I fixed up for a buyer was bought for $12,000 in 2010. In 2006 Fannie Mae had backed a $106,000 loan on it. Around that time the GSE’s and FHA said no loans on manufactured houses in Mohave County. Zero liquidity. It’s going to come down to the government. Look at those multi-family totals in the comments here; $4 trillion from the GSE’s in a few years. A lot of that will default. If I had to guess, people in the US are going to want out of the housing biz. If and when that happens, things should start to sort out.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-11-25 09:09:03

Thanks to the magic of errors compounding earlier errors, this mess may take an entire generation to sort out

 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-11-25 08:19:32

Colleyville, TX Housing Craters; Prices Plummet 10% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/colleyville-tx/home-values/

Comment by Skroodle
2015-11-25 21:31:49

That’s not what the link says…Colleyville is doing fine.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-11-26 03:34:31

Down 10% YoY. Data my friend. Study the data.

http://www.zillow.com/market-report/11-15/30983/colleyville-tx.xls?rt=14

 
 
 
Comment by SD_LI
2015-11-25 09:09:08

Professor Bear, which parts of San Diego do you think will fall the hardest?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-11-25 19:31:53

Generally areas where investor activity was most influential in setting the bid over the past few years…

When said investors pull out, and they will, the bid will drop to what liquidity-constrained end users are willing and able to pay, which will tend to be considerably below recent investor offers.

 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2015-11-25 11:07:15

ZIllow predicts Austin increase 1.8% increase.
1/4% mort increase kills that
And austin is the hi tech ,no oil nirvana

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-11-25 11:44:02

Denver, CO Housing Prices Crater 12% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/cherry-creek-denver-co/home-values/

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
 
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