Is History Repeating Itself?
NECN reports from Massachusetts. “The median home price in Massachusetts is now $372,000, a new record. With bidding wars and record prices, the headlines are strikingly similar to a decade ago, right before the housing market tanked. Is history repeating itself? Annie Blatz, president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors said, ‘We have a very competitive market very high demand and low inventory. That is making our prices go up. This is different from years in the past when we had a different economic set of circumstances when we had high demand and high prices and also high inventory.’”
“Massachusetts’ most competitive markets right now are Boston and the western suburbs, where it’s not uncommon to wait in line to get into an open house. Buyers need to be ready to pounce when they find something they like. Jim Cotter of William Raveis Real Estate said, ‘All your ducks in a row. Ready to make an intelligent offer on the spot is absolutely key. This market is so fast. It is not the type of situation where you can say ‘we’ll look at it tonight and think about it overnight.’”
“Blatz said, ‘They have to get in to the competitive spirit of it. They have to be ready to buy and have their checkbook with them and be ready to make their highest and best offer and if they do that they’ll eventually get a house.’ She added, ‘They also need to have some flexibility. Maybe they need to consider a home that might need some repairs or renovation.’”
The Press Democrat in California. “Sonoma County’s housing market slowed markedly in July, leading real estate brokers to wonder whether a sluggish pace of sales in the Bay Area is moving north. County home sales declined nearly 17 percent last month from a year earlier, according to The Press Democrat’s monthly housing report, compiled by Pacific Union International senior VP Rick Laws. Buyers in July purchased 450 single-family homes, the lowest number for the month in five years.”
“New listings, meanwhile, declined 20 percent from a year earlier, falling to the lowest level for July in at least seven years. That second drop, which will mean fewer available properties in an already tight housing market, caught brokers by surprise. ‘It’s only one month,’ said Laws, ‘but it was enough for me to go, ‘Wow, what’s going on?’”
The Register Guard in Oregon. “After reaching historic highs in June, Lane County’s housing market came back to earth in July, with fewer closed sales and lower sale prices, according to the latest figures from the Regional Multiple Listing Service. The 418 closed sales in July was down from 524 in June. July’s average sale price of $261,400 was lower than June’s $279,800 average price — the highest ever in Lane County, according to RMLS.”
The Pueblo Chieftain in Colorado. “The recovery in Pueblo home sales slowed for a second month in July. Sales last month were down 26 percent by unit volume (191 vs. 261) and down 19 percent by dollar volume ($32.5 million vs. $40.5 million) compared with July 2015, according to data from the Pueblo Association of Realtors.”
“Real estate industry professionals are sensing a slowdown, said Dave Anderson of RE/MAX Pueblo West, a spokesman for the Colorado Association of Realtors. ‘Last week, we noticed that the showings were down and even one of the mortgage companies said they noticed a few less people coming in and applying for loans,’ Anderson said.”
The Pioneer Press in Minnesota. “The median sales price for homes in the Twin Cities region in July retreated slightly from the record level it reached in June, but still rose on a year-on-year basis. The median in July was $239,900, a 6.6 percent rise from July of last year, but down from the $242,000 record high set in June 2016, St. Paul and Minneapolis Realtors associations reported. Homes prices above $1 million are taking an average 174 days to sell. ‘Those selling properties above the $500,000 mark know that patience is a virtue even in our current environment,’ said Cotty Lowry, president-elect of the Minneapolis association.”
The Frontiersman in Alaska. “The man with the finger on the pulse of the largest economic center in the state told the Wasilla Chamber of Commerce that dire predictions about the decline of the regional and state economy have yet to be realized. Bill Popp, CEO of the Anchorage Economic Development Corp., told the chamber that there will be some pain, he said of the state’s current economic straits, but the direction is vastly different from comparisons made to the state’s economic crash in the 1980s. That era was marked with an epic housing and banking collapse that shouldn’t happen in the current climate, he said.”
“‘In the month of June, we were down 1,000 jobs in construction, 1,000 jobs in professional and business services and 1,000 jobs in oil and gas in Anchorage — 2,500 on a statewide basis,’ Popp said. ‘That was from the (2015) peak. So, it’s down about 19 percent, and that’s where we are feeling the pain. And we are feeling it in these high-dollar jobs that we value very much.’”
“‘Right now were are feeling a very sharp pinch,’ Popp said. ‘It’s going to hurt and it is going to leave a mark. But it’s not the head blow that some people try to portray it as, like it is 1986 all over again.’”
Crain’s Chicago Business in Illinois. “A home in south suburban Riverdale sold in May for less than half what its seller paid 19 years ago, but his real estate agent said the owner ‘was glad to get that monkey off his back.’ Rodney Russell bought the house for $81,500 in 1997 and sold it for $37,000, according to the Cook County recorder of deeds. He wasn’t in foreclosure, according to the recorder, but made a deal with his lender to short-sell the house because he’d been trying to sell it since 2009, said listing agent John Palomo of Coldwell Banker. ‘He was happy to finally be walking away with no debt on it anymore,’ Palomo said.”
“Russell, who couldn’t be reached for comment, was so far underwater on the house that the likelihood of getting back to a break-even point was minuscule. His predicament is common in Riverdale, where more than 76 percent of homeowners with a mortgage were ’seriously underwater’ in the second quarter, according to a report from Attom Data Solutions. That means they owe at least 25 percent more on their mortgage than their home is worth.”
“Riverdale has the nation’s second-highest concentration of seriously underwater homeowners, according to Attom, formerly called RealtyTrac. Among all U.S. ZIP codes with at least 2,500 homes, only the St. Louis suburb of Bellefontaine Neighbors has a higher level of mortgage distress, 79.8 percent, according to Attom’s data. In two dozen Chicago-area ZIP codes, more than 50 percent of homeowners were seriously underwater in the second quarter.”
“‘The entire south suburban part of Chicago isn’t pulling up out of the problem that started in 2008′ with the housing bust, said Mike Buder, a Re/Max 2000 agent and former homebuilder in Dolton. ‘We’re not seeing a recovery here.’ The average sale price in Dolton was $25,500 last year, or less than 40 percent of the $110,600 average a decade earlier, he said.”
‘leading real estate brokers to wonder whether a sluggish pace of sales in the Bay Area is moving north’
Like the flu. So much for RE is local.
‘The recovery in Pueblo home sales slowed for a second month in July. Sales last month were down 26 percent by unit volume and down 19 percent by dollar volume compared with July 2015…Real estate industry professionals are sensing a slowdown, said Dave Anderson , a spokesman for the Colorado Association of Realtors’
And don’t forget Dave, that loan-owners will freak out if prices stop going up, as reported by the Denver Post. It’s interesting from a mania perspective to observe this astonishment that meteoric price rises end. Jeebus, did they really think house prices could go up 5, 7, 12 percent forever? Yet here we see them, dumbstruck.
Pueblo
And when you buy a used house in Pueblo, these are your neighbors:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/04/08/us/heroin-related-violence-mars-pueblo-colorado-effort-to-recover.html?_r=0
I though Heroin was only in Bernies state?
‘A home in south suburban Riverdale sold in May for less than half what its seller paid 19 years ago, but his real estate agent said the owner ‘was glad to get that monkey off his back.’ Rodney Russell bought the house for $81,500 in 1997 and sold it for $37,000. He wasn’t in foreclosure, according to the recorder, but made a deal with his lender to short-sell the house because he’d been trying to sell it since 2009, said listing agent John Palomo of Coldwell Banker. ‘He was happy to finally be walking away with no debt on it anymore,’ Palomo said.’
Mike and Oxide aren’t going to like this. It blows up their inflation thing and what people can afford to pay stuff. Golly, an older house goes down in price. Who would have imagined that what was the norm for hundreds of years would reappear?
Poor Donk and Irrelevant Mike. Poor poor Donk and Irrelevant Mike.
Agents of elites
The elite lizard people!
Housing my friend.
People wanna buy right now for both consumption, and speculation/investment.
So - if they think the asset is only going to increase in price, they can “reach” to buy it and at some point in the future, sell it (or their kids can sell it) and make a healthy profit.
If prices even flatten for a year, it will be interesting to see what happens.
Regarding putting everything one has into a house and the house appreciates has a curious net result for the asset owner:
“Does it help you buy groceries?” “No.”
“Does it help pay for your kids college?” “No.”
“Does it help you with unexpected expenses?” “No.”
“So what’s your net result?” “I do get to pay higher taxes.”
Hi Neuromance,
Thanks for your response in the last thread. When you mentioned that buyer’s agents likely had more value in the past, a time when buyer’s wouldn’t know the inventory out there, that was the sorta thing I was looking for.
Still, I’ll forever find it odd that buyer’s agents benefit from a higher selling price.
In regards to your comment above, I think some of that depends on income gains and the economy. Let’s say you lock into a mortgage or $2K/mo. Then it’s ten years later and rents for a house like yours are up to $3K/mo. You then do have more money to help with groceries, college, etc. And I don’t think that the property taxes would go up enough to offset that.
And yet, incomes aren’t going up for most so I can see where you’re coming from. I guess my response is more related to how things used to be.
Who would have thunk rotting wood, rusting pipes, fraying electrical systems would decrease in value over decades? Seems almost…logical.
Funny how a 1990 Civic is only a couple grand if that as opposed to a 2016 MSRP of $20,000…. Same principle, it’s required just as much as shelter (unless you live near mass transit).
When you add in property taxes, the financial beating is profound.
^
Indeed it is.
When Hillary is elected and has to satisfy the ever-increasing payola demands of her billionaire donors as well as the extortionate demands of the ever-growing Free Sh!t Army, houses are going to represent a large illiquid asset and tax cash cow for the DNC and the mega-parasitic collectivist kleptocracy they will be installing. Forward!
Inflation won’t work if the neighborhood is on the way down. And it sounds like the South Side of Chicago has been going downhill like Detroit. Which is too bad, because many of those are very nice little houses.
‘the owner ‘was glad to get that monkey off his back.’ Rodney Russell bought the house for $81,500 in 1997 and sold it for $37,000…he’d been trying to sell it since 2009, said listing agent John Palomo of Coldwell Banker. ‘He was happy to finally be walking away with no debt on it anymore’
Notice that being cheaper than renting never entered into it.
Mike and Oxide aren’t going to like this. It blows up their inflation thing and what people can afford to pay stuff. Golly, an older house goes down in price. Who would have imagined that what was the norm for hundreds of years would reappear?
There may be a hundred million houses in America. The fact that one percent of them are worth less than they were worth 19 years ago isn’t of much significance.
Irrelevant.
No wonder Hillary is all about “forgiving” student debt (passing it on to taxpayers): for-profit colleges are making high-dollar “donations” to the Clinton Crime Syndicate.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/12/politico-bill-clinton-paid-17-5-million-by-for-profit-university/
Tim Kaine also spoke out against housing discrimination. Apprently minorities are denied loans off their color still…I find that hard to believe. If you dont have the credit or cash, there’s the door.
So him and Hillbilly will insure those who cant afford it and dont deserve it will receive the “American Dream”.
Spend a little time down south if you think descrimination is over…
I lived in MS, FL, and VA as a kid/young adult. No lesson necessary
“Apprently minorities are denied loans off their color…”
Exactly… white trash can’t scrape together $400 in a pinch, but them yella-fellas have cold-hard cash!
Cra & smelly Mel loans fixed that
Default rates very high
Apprently minorities are denied loans off their color still…I find that hard to believe.
For some reason you don’t want to believe it. Here’s news about research in the medical field from just this week.
Finding Good Pain Treatment Is Hard. If You’re Not White, It’s Even Harder.
By ABBY GOODNOUGHAUG. 9, 2016
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Roslyn Lewis was at work at a dollar store here, pushing a heavy cart of dog food, when something popped in her back: an explosion of pain. At the emergency room the next day, doctors gave her Motrin and sent her home.
Her employer paid for a nerve block that helped temporarily, numbing her lower back, but she could not afford more injections or physical therapy. A decade later, the pain radiates to her right knee and remains largely unaddressed, so deep and searing that on a recent day she sat stiffly on her couch, her curtains drawn, for hours.
The experience of African-Americans, like Ms. Lewis, and other minorities illustrates a problem as persistent as it is complex: Minorities tend to receive less treatment for pain than whites, and suffer more disability as a result.
While an epidemic of prescription opioid abuse has swept across the United States, African-Americans and Hispanics have been affected at much lower rates than whites. Researchers say minority patients use fewer opioids, and they offer a thicket of possible explanations, including a lack of insurance coverage and a greater reluctance among minorities to take opioid painkillers even if they are prescribed. But the researchers have also found evidence of racial bias and stereotyping in recognizing and treating pain among minorities, particularly black patients.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/10/us/how-race-plays-a-role-in-patients-pain-treatment.html
False flag candidate purposely trying to lose to Hillary Clinton
http://theantimedia.org/trump-trying-lose-election/
I’m beginning to think Trump ran as a political stunt, having no intention of getting this far, but now is panicking that he could actually win and seeks to throw the election.
He is acting flippant, so that makes sense
If this is the case, I would be MORE LIKELY to vote for him.
… and, are we SURE that he isn’t Andy Kaufman????
The central banks’ war on savers continues.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/12/german-savers-hit-by-negative-interest-rates/
how many on this blog approve of such policies?
The opinion of the proles means nothing my friend. The policies of the Federal Reserve, ECB, BoE, etc. are intended solely to enrich a corrupt and venal .1% in the financial sector at the expense of everyone else. 95% of the electorate “approved of such policies” by voting for corporate statists like Obama, McCain, Romney, etc.
You should write a letter to that small Bavarian bank expressing your disapproval.
Wow, that is truly insane. Who on earth would leave their money there?
The stupid, amoral voters in Venezuela are reaping the full consequences of voting for collectivist kleptocrats, and thus their children, having seen first hand the end state of every socialist utopia once the Comrades of Proven Worth have stolen everything worth stealing, will forever be innoculated against voting for socialism. In the same way, Muslims living under fanatics like ISIS have gotten a good healthy dose of “true Islam” that will make many of them reject such fanaticism and ignorance forever.
http://www.businessinsider.com/pictures-of-syrian-town-of-manbij-after-liberation-from-isis-2016-8/#manbij-in-northern-syria-has-been-a-critical-syrian-city-for-isis-supply-routes-to-their-main-stronghold-in-raqqa-isis-troops-have-held-the-city-since-2014-1
Hillary holds up Indonesia as a model for how Islam and women’s rights are compatible. Um, yeah….
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/08/13/a-vote-for-hillary-is-a-vote-for-sharia-law/
A VOTE FOR HILLARY IS A VOTE FOR SHARIA LAW
So after she wins in November, the logical conclusion should be that the American people want sharia law. I hope that she doesn’t let us down.
Irrelevant.
Just as the neocon cabal in the Bush administration used cherry-picked BS intelligence to make the case for the 2003 invasion of Iraq, now the military synchophants at US Central Command (CENTCOM) have been ensuring the intelligence passed to the White House presents a rosy picture, causing an analyst revolt. As they say, truth is the first casualty of war, especially for adminisrations focused on spin rather than reality.
http://www.thecoachsteam.com/2016/08/congress-concluded-that-centcom.html
“In a time of universal deceipt, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”
– George Orwell
http://www.breitbart.com/jerusalem/2016/08/13/ten-troubling-finds-inside-house-probe-pentagons-distorted-intel-islamic-state/
Intelligence analysis must conform to The Narrative. Or else.
“Speculation is the root of all recessions and unemployment.”
And when that speculation is fueled by massive amounts of credit in a deflationary environment like we’ve seen over the last 20 years the outcome is horrific.
Stupid voters who elect corrupt, incompetent Democrats to maladminister their municpalities, states, territories, or countries should be forced to suffer the full consequences of their poor decisions.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/flint-water-crisis-federal-michigan-emergency-expires-a7188561.html
“Land is highly speculative resulting in massive price swings entirely unfounded on fundamentals. If you’re paying more than $500-$1000/acre, you’re paying too much. That’s why land is referred to as worthless dirt. Besides, there is a globe full of land and roughly 95% of it goes undeveloped.”
This is why we’re seeing tillable land prices crater.
“With bidding wars and record prices, the headlines are strikingly similar to a decade ago, right before the housing market tanked. Is history repeating itself?”
Clearly it’s different this time.
So say all of the “experts.”
Not at all. Just wondering when the correctionwill really begin. After the election?
The correction began last year. It’s now just gaining speed.
Trust me its not limited to western ‘burbs of Mass. The mayhem is rampant along the North Shore, even in the crummy towns, like Salem or Lynn. GF’s mom’s friend attended some open houses and there would be 4-5 offers over asking up in the North shore. Its just ridiculous, and Mass property taxes, the state has got to be loving the chaos and funny markets. House around the corner sold within 3 days, standard SFH minus the garage, and sold for $430,000….1900 sq ft, built in 1950. Who are these idiots?
My friend’s dad is trying to convince the mom to let them cash out, get rid of the casa and just live in their FL condo. He believes the market will pop, and you should cash in while you can, but others are just delusional.
December 14, 2015
Prices That Once Would Have Encouraged Optimism
The Belmontonian reports from Massachusetts. “A million dollar house on Rutledge? Of course! How about in the shadow of the Temple on Amherst Road? You bet. Even along School Street, where the production of ‘This Old House’ came to visit, makes sense to see a price tag for a cool million. But Watson Road? The road off of Washington below the Presidential neighborhood is typical of many Belmont side-streets, one of homes built in the same style as their neighbors; sturdy but far from fancy. And 140 Watson is just that: the town rates it as a B grade house – heated by oil with an unfinished attic – with its last significant renovation was the installation of replacement windows a decade ago.”
“The town’s assessors did bump up its assessed value in the past year, to a whopping $784,000. Somehow, this ‘average’ house oversold its assessed value by nearly a quarter of a million dollars! Maybe the buyers misheard an important fact: it’s heating is oil not that there is oil in the basement, a la ‘The Beverly Hillbillies.’ The fact that an average house could sell for a fat premium should give people pause, during which time they can recall the last few housing financial ‘bubbles’ and their impact on the community and town finances.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9400
July 6, 2016
Sellers Who Had To Put Their Tails Between Their Legs
The Belmontonian in Massachusetts. “Remember the memorable final line in the outstanding film ‘The Usual Suspects’? ‘And like that, poof. He’s gone.’ You could change a few words, and you have a metaphor for the Belmont real estate market. ‘And like that, poof. The house for sale was gone.’ In the past week, six of the seven homes and condos that sold were bought just weeks after being listed on the market. And in half the sales, the final price was greater than the original list price.”
“But there is one caveat to that supply/demand function for real estate in Belmont: don’t be greedy. There have been numerous examples – many involving high-end homes reported in the Belmontonian – of sellers who had to put their tails between their legs and recalculate (i.e., cut) the listing price. Buyers are willing to pay a premium but not a ransom for a house. Winchester is just one town over, and it has better roads, a new high school, and the same housing stock.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9681
I recall you posted a snippet about a woman who inherited her grandfather’s house from the early 1900s, and she was recently foreclosing on it, I think in Worcester Mass. How in the hell do you receive (quite possibly) a paid off house, and somehow have to foreclose on a $300k balance? Dumb family must have tapped into it a couple of times over the last couple of decades. These people then play victim and expect protections and cities to assist. Makes me sick.
I completely agree with you, but in this day and age, these people are rewarded! And you can’t take it with you, so why not spend as much other people’s money as you can before you flame out. Again, I don’t agree with this philosophy, but it’s rampant.
Im hoping some market movement downward in the coming months so I can negotiate a rent decrease. I recently glanced through Trulia and Craigslist, and the prices have gone up since I entered my lease early this yr…This all despite increasing apartment complexes coming online throughout the North Shore/ in between Boston. I guess its the huge influx of millenials looking for metro living, hipster areas like Somerville, and slum ghettos like East Boston, chasing those $60,000-$75,000 FIRE jobs….Yep totally worth it
‘My friend’s dad is trying to convince the mom to let them cash out, get rid of the casa and just live in their FL condo. He believes the market will pop, and you should cash in while you can, but others are just delusional.’
Sum ting wong when more and more motivated sellers start to sense this peakiness. Dandroidz, pay attention to all of this kabuki theater. It seems to happen often nowadays when asset prices is all that we got left.
“Among all U.S. ZIP codes with at least 2,500 homes, only the St. Louis suburb of Bellefontaine Neighbors has a higher level of mortgage distress, 79.8 percent, according to Attom’s data.”
That helps explain the dismal results when we sold our family home there in spring 2016. It probably doesn’t help property values much to be situated four miles east of Black Lives Matter ground zero of Ferguson, or to belong to a school district whose high school has lost its accreditation.
I could tell you a story a out how this all began with mandatory busing when I was in high school in the mid-1970s, but it would take all day and a fair bit of journalistic sleuthing to piece together the story.
Business
Home price recovery skips some St. Louis area neighborhoods
By Jim Gallagher and Walker Moskop
St. Louis Post-Dispatch
Aug 8, 2016
Home recovery
The recovery in housing prices has been rocky and uneven in the St. Louis area, a fact reflected in new data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
As of last year — according to the latest figures available by ZIP code — prices in much of the region were still below the peak year of 2007, and prices in much of north St. Louis County were still lagging by more than 30 percent.
…
It seems like black lives matter quite a bit to housing prices!
Cra
Is all u need to know
Did everyone see the latest news out of Silly Valley? City housing planner quits due to the absurdity of Silly Valley’s housing crisis. Her husband, a software engineer, and her as a tech worker, can only afford rent with splitting a house with another professional couple ($6200/mo)….Median rents out there are touching on $4000+/mo. No surprise to most in-tune folks with realities, as stories of garage rentals, car living rentals have spring up out of CA.
Silly Valley Planner Resigns
It’s ok though, Palo Alto recently contributed $14.5 million to help keep a MOBILE HOME park open… Didnt Zuckerberg buy properties that were obstructing his bedroom view and affecting his gated fence?
Here’s the actual link.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-12/friday-humor-palo-alto-planning-commissioner-quits-due-high-cost-housing
This story got me thinking about an interesting means test for city planners and elected officials: require that any official live in the city for which they work and have a household income not exceeding the median household income for that city. If they can’t support themselves and/or leave the city they clearly have failed in their responsibilities and are replaced.
Interesting article on bank leverage by the main guy from The Big Short:http://www.salon.com/2016/08/13/we-might-not-have-to-bail-out-the-banks-again-says-real-life-big-short-investor-steve-eisman/
Given the growing number of defaults appearing all over, they’re going to implode anyways.
‘Muricans are supposedly “mad as hell” at a system rigged against them, yet election after election they meekly bend over for the crony capitalist status quo by casting votes for Wall Street’s captured Republicrat duopoly and the water carriers for the plutocrats. Some things I don’t understand.
http://sgtreport.com/2016/08/heres-why-americans-are-mad-as-hell-at-wall-street-and-washington/
Tens of millions of Americans clearly understand that an entrenched system of corruption such as this, perpetuated through a revolving door between Wall Street and Washington, while enshrined by a political campaign finance system that recycles a portion of the plunder to ensure greater plunders, will inevitably leave the nation’s economy in tatters — again. That’s because systemic corruption and legalized bribery within the financial arteries of the nation can only create grossly perverse economic outcomes.
The actual role of Wall Street is to fairly and efficiently allocate capital to maximize positive economic outcomes for the nation. Under the current model, Wall Street is focused solely on maximizing profits in any manner possible, including fraud and collusion, to maximize personal enrichment. When Senator Bernie Sanders said during his campaign stops and a presidential debate that “the business model of Wall Street is fraud,” there was a long, substantive archive of facts to back up that assertion.
The chosen Republican presidential candidate is part of the rigging. If you are too blind by your worshipping of him it is a shame.
Donald Trump is going to make my mortgage payment and give me a new iPhone!
Who enrages you more. Me or Mr Trump?
I don’t “worship” Trump, bile-spewing anarchest faker: it’s just that the alternative is so much worse.
Voter participation could drop to single digits and the candidates would remain the same.
True but “if a law is unjust, a man is not only right to disobey it, he is obligated to do so.” - Thomas Jefferson.
There. It does not matter which master the meek will vote in, if you don’t like a decree they sign in, and it is unjust, you can ignore it.
I do likewise.
It is not honorable to call yourself a “law-abiding citizen” when criminals have been making the laws.
Under the current model, Wall Street is focused solely on maximizing profits in any manner possible, including fraud and collusion, to maximize personal enrichment.
This is probably true in every industry, not just Wall Street. Corporations exist to make as much money as possible for their investors. They obey the law only if that is the right decision for the bottom line.
Aspen real estate in a first-ever sustained nosedive
Brokers struggling to explain sudden, precipitous drop in luxury real estate market
“The summer crowds are dense in Aspen. Sales tax revenues are soaring. Lodging occupancy is high. So why is Aspen’s high-end real estate market — one of the most robust in the country, with dozens of options for buyers ready to spend more than $10 million — in its first-ever sustained nosedive?
High-end sales that fuel Aspen’s $2 billion-a-year real estate market are evaporating, pushing Pitkin County’s sales volume down more than 42 percent to $546.45 million for the first half of the year from $939.91 million in the same period of 2015.
This year, a slowdown in January turned into a free fall. Sales volume — the total of all residential real estate sold — in Pitkin County is down 42 percent, according to data compiled by Land Title Guarantee Co. Almost all of that decline is coming from Aspen, where the market is frozen. Sales in the Aspen-Snowmass market in the first half of the year were the bleakest since the first half of 2009, and inventory soared to levels not seen since the recession.”
http://www.denverpost.com/2016/08/12/aspen-real-estate-in-a-first-ever-sustained-nosedive/
‘So why is Aspen’s high-end real estate market — one of the most robust in the country, with dozens of options for buyers ready to spend more than $10 million — in its first-ever sustained nosedive?’
Oh please, Aspen went down first and harder than Denver in 2005. Do a search on this blog for Aspen and you’ll see multiple reports of it tanking there for months now. And there’s the added matter of luxury markets crashing all over the world going back as much as a year ago.
‘Many Roaring Fork Valley brokers say the luxury market across the country is slowed, from Manhattan to Palm Beach. “The high-end buyer has disappeared,” said Tim Estin, an Aspen broker whose Estin Report analyzes the Aspen-Snowmass real estate market.’
“I really believe as we come out of the recession, everyone is looking over their shoulder, scared there may be another 2008-2009 event,” he said. “I call it the boogeyman of the 2008 crisis. It just makes people very cautious.”
‘Aspen has never experienced such a sudden and precipitous drop in real estate sales. Even more disconcerting for brokers who have always trumpeted Aspen as a safe and lucrative place to park a huge pile of money: Prices are dropping.’
‘In the first half of this year, the average price per square foot of Aspen homes dropped 22 percent to $1,095 from $1,338 in 2015. Recent Aspen sales also closed at more than 15 percent below listing price, a rare discount.’
‘Some brokers suspect that the frenzied sales and pricing pace of 2015 was not sustainable. The present decline is a correction, they say.’
“I think a lot of people thought we would go to the next level in 2016. Take the next step up and that step got resistance from buyers,” said longtime Aspen broker Joshua Saslove.’
‘Back in 2007, buyers were looking and buying in a day. They’d come to Aspen, fall in love with the place during a fancy event such as Food & Wine, and drop several million cash on a place.’
“I think a lot of developers thought they would push their, say, $5 million properties to $6 million this year, but no one is buying,” Saslove said. “I don’t see that nonchalance or cavalier attitude any more.”
Looking and buying in a day. No bubble here!
Production of raw materials has been in recession for a year. Manufacturing is now in recession. It’s moving up the food chain.
Is it a nosedive or the nose in white powder?
They are known for that up there.
I’m tempted to think the bust is on. This is a full on meltdown in Aspen. This is how it starts; here and there. Nervousness. Slowing sales right in the middle of summer. Throw in the commodity crunch, anti-money laundering actions, currency problems for foreign buyers. Talk of “spreading”.
Hope you are right. I am rooting for it. I know it will create a lot of heartache and pain for the masses, but the status-quo must die whatever the cost.
“Aspen real estate in a first-ever sustained nosedive”
Hehe… sounds like Nicolas Cage country.
Warmist Warming Weekend Edition:
“A federal appeals court in Chicago gave a thumbs-up this week to an obscure regulatory practice that helps the U.S. government account for projected costs of climate change. The decision comes less than a week after the White House issued guidance to all federal agencies about how they can build carbon accounting into their decision-making.
Although not as splashy as the economywide “cap” on climate pollution President Obama proposed in his first term, the intensely wonky “social cost of carbon” is gradually making its mark. The seismic effect of bureaucrats at every level of government adding a new line to their balance sheets cannot be overstated.
The three-judge panel held that the U.S. Department of Energy acted in a reasonable and fair manner when, in 2014, it issued two rules promoting energy efficiency in commercial refrigerators. Multiple lawsuits against the agency were consolidated into one case, which eventually landed in the U.S. Court of Appeals in Chicago.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-11/climate-change-may-be-doubted-by-some-but-now-it-s-the-law
I have a carbon tax
For which I will gladly show you proof of 100 years from now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ6xBaZ92uA - 267k -
“Using the social cost of carbon—or estimates of those future damages in today’s dollars—policymakers can design a fix that builds in the empirical cost of climate change over time. Agencies like the Department of Energy use it in cost-benefit analyses of regulation.”
Warmists gonna warm.
This has NOTHING to do with climate change. It’s all about the manufacturers using the force of law to get you to buy new, more “energy-efficient” stuff.
They have been talking about this for years - even proposing a requirement that your used house must be upgraded to current energy conservation standards when it changes hands.
It’s all a scam. If it was really about the environment, today’s appliances would last 30-40 years like they used to, instead of 10-15 years like they do now (if even that). Making a new appliance and recycling the old one releases much more carbon into the atmosphere than what the new appliance will prevent over its life.
Cloward-Piven in action:
“Cleveland Heights-University Heights school district will provide free breakfast and lunch to all students.
The meals are funded by the Community Eligibility Provision, a federal program that allows schools to provide breakfast and lunch to students, regardless of income level. Right now about half of students receive free lunch, and 67 percent are economically disadvantaged.”
http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2016/08/cleveland_heights-university_h_2.html#incart_river_home
Not Cloward-Piven. C-P is minimum income in cash. Cash would go right to drugs and guns — or, if we’re lucky, toward the food-ish stuff at 7-11. I see nothing wrong with handing out food. And it’s probably cheaper to just lunch to everyone, than to go to the hassle of figuring out who’s eligible and collecting money.
And Cloward-Piven will never have the desired effect. The goal was to establish a minimum income, but that won’t matter. Prices would just rise to soak up the income, leaving the poor as poor as before.
Hey Donk.
Article for all the badge lickers and uniform fetishists:
“At its most obvious, the Department of Justice report on the Baltimore Police Department added a hundred sixty-three pages to the great tower of foregone conclusions. In short, the Baltimore Police Department engaged in a pattern of stopping African-Americans without any real justification. Between 2010 and 2015, there were three hundred thousand police stops, of which less than four per cent resulted in a citation or arrest. Forty-four per cent of those stops occurred in two small, mostly black neighborhoods, and ninety-five per cent of people who were stopped ten times or more were African-American.
But the most striking part of the report on Baltimore is the extent to which it is interchangeable with the reports on race and policing that have come out of Chicago, Cleveland, Ferguson, and Newark in the past two years. The reports were most often the product of a particular outrage that had initially been met with official denials or understatements, and then with grudging acknowledgment of wrongdoing, followed by a federal examination of what went wrong. The Chicago report was commissioned by Mayor Rahm Emanuel in the volatile days after a video of a seventeen-year-old named Laquan McDonald being shot sixteen times by a police officer was made public. The Cleveland report—the second such examination in twelve years—came in the wake of a series of incidents, most notably a car chase in which officers fired a hundred and thirty-seven bullets into a vehicle containing two unarmed people. Three weeks before the report was released, a Cleveland police officer, Timothy Loehmann, shot Tamir Rice, a twelve-year-old who was playing with a toy gun in a public park. The Department of Justice report on Ferguson, Missouri, came after Michael Brown, who was eighteen, was shot to death by the police officer Darren Wilson. The Department of Justice found Wilson’s use of force justifiable—at the same time that it found that the Ferguson Police Department was egregiously biased and mercenary.
Toss this damning collection into the air and it would be nearly impossible to determine which pages belong where. The death of Freddie Gray, while he was in the custody of the Baltimore police, didn’t outrage people because of its unique horror. It outraged people because he was recognizable, an everyman of the American city. African-Americans represent sixty per cent of Baltimore residents old enough to drive legally but eighty-two per cent of those who are stopped by police. In Ferguson, where African-Americans are sixty-seven per cent of the populace, they represent eighty-five per cent of automotive and pedestrian stops. In Chicago, which has roughly equal black, white, and Hispanic populations, blacks and Hispanics are four times more likely to be stopped by police.”
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-ordinary-outrage-of-the-baltimore-police-report
That guy (cracker?) climbing Trump Tower yelped out loud several times as police twisted his limbs while he was still connected to his safety gear as they tried to haul him inside. Cops didn’t have to do that… he didn’t have anywhere to go, but they got physical anyway.
Whole Foods arrives in Williamsburg: a marriage made in hipster heaven
With its locally sourced orchids and imaginatively priced organic diapers, the grocery store is a natural fit for Brooklyn’s painfully fashionable neighbourhood
“In the Williamsburg store they’ve created a faux neighborhood, like on a TV set where there’s a precious manicured street with fake signs and fake store fronts. You can stand outside “Fine Cuts” butchers and watch a real-life butcher handling his meat. You can sit in the “N4 taproom” and drink a local IPA while enjoying the sports on TV. You can flip through the New York Times style section as you drink a latte in the coffee shop.
Or maybe you’d like to pay a visit to the smoothie bar. Or visit Luke’s Lobster “tail cart” – an old-fashioned wooden thing where someone who may or may not actually be called Luke sells lobster tails from Maine. You could even stop in at the vegan and paleo parfait bar for a chat over some chickpeas. The resulting atmosphere is more food hall than big-box grocery store.
After spending an hour in Whole Foods I felt I knew how to talk to their customers. I opened my mouth to explain.
‘I’m locally sourced!’ I wanted to say. ‘I’m 100% organic!’ ‘I’m expensive!’
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/13/whole-foods-arrives-williamsburg-brooklyn
Whole Foods is a giant corporation with stores in dozens of states. It’s not very hip, actually.
Remember, a ‘recovery’ in housing is falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels by definition.”
Correct.
To be young, rich and Chinese in America:
“In recent years, Porsches, Lamborghinis and Ferraris have become common sights outside certain hotpot restaurants in the San Gabriel Valley.
Behind the wheels of these cars are fuerdai like Rudy, a generation born in the aftermath of China’s economic miracle, with every imaginable resource at their disposal.
For many in China, the fuerdai symbolize the values lost in the modernizing country’s mad dash for economic growth — diligence, humility and restraint.
Their exploits make headlines across the world and read like a cautionary tale of new wealth — “The Great Gatsby,” but with China-sized fortunes.
The fuerdais’ antics have inspired such national anxiety that last year the Chinese government ordered 70 of these second generation nouveau riche to attend an education camp on Chinese values. There’s widespread concern in China that wealth is warping the social compass, said Xiaofei Li, a political science professor at York College of Pennsylvania. In the new China, morality is often measured by how much money someone makes, not how they make it.
“There’s a saying in China: People will laugh at someone who is poor, but they will not laugh at a prostitute,” Li said.
Rong, a second-year student at USC, rents an office in a downtown skyscraper, spends weekends in his family’s 5,900-square-foot house in Newport Beach and, depending on his mood, drives a Bentley Continental GT, a Rolls Royce Phantom, a Porsche Turbo Cayenne, a Cadillac, a Mercedes or a Range Rover — a fleet he keeps parked around town, some in spaces that go for up to $2,400 a year at the downtown Los Angeles high-rise where he has his apartment.
He freely identifies as fuerdai, but with one caveat.
“It just defines you as someone’s son. We want to be known for ourselves,” Rong said.
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-headlines-chinese-fuerdai-20160707-snap-htmlstory.html#nt=oft12aH-2gp2
Oh So Cal…my land…full of them and other corrupts. They fit like a glove with the native oligarchs who are as corrupt.
Raymond K Hessel,
I’m curious what policies you support, economic and otherwise.
For example, I believe that a public police force, fire department, and fda are a good thing. At the same time, I believe that the only thing that should have been bailed out in 2007-2008 were standard bank deposits and certain retirement funds and those dependent on them. All of the insolvent banks and insurance companies should have been put out to pasture.
I’m fairly non-interventionist in terms of foreign policy.
Where do you stand in general? I see that you’re critical of both Democrats and Republicans and am curious how you’d like to see the design.
He is not critical of his God, the One Republican nominee.
Irrelevant
This one goes out to those who were once again bummed that the government refused again Thursday to allow the use of marijuana for medical purposes.
The Coasters - Let’s Go Get Stoned - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGl_OlVbahY - 227k -
U.S. affirms its prohibition on medical marijuana
By Lenny Bernstein August 11 2016
The government refused again Thursday to allow the use of marijuana for medical purposes, reaffirming its conclusion that the drug’s therapeutic value has not been proved scientifically and defying a growing clamor to legalize it for the treatment of a variety of conditions.
In an announcement in the Federal Register and a letter to petitioners, the Drug Enforcement Administration turned down requests to remove marijuana from “Schedule I,” which classifies it as a drug with “no currently accepted medical use” in the United States and precludes doctors from prescribing it.
How Newtown gave Chris Murphy a mission:
“Few politicians would ever admit this, but Sen. Chris Murphy (a Connecticut Democrat so boyish he has been mistaken for a junior staffer) says he was unfocused, a bit adrift, in the weeks after being elected to the upper chamber in 2012.
Then came Dec. 14, 2012, and Murphy’s senatorial finding-himself period ended in an awful instant, before he was even sworn in. He was on a train platform in Bridgeport, en route to see the Rockefeller Center Christmas tree with his wife and two young kids, when he got the news that 20 schoolchildren had been murdered in Newtown, a 15-minute drive north.
Murphy sent his family home, showed up at the firehouse near Sandy Hook Elementary School where the families of the slain were gathering, and discovered the cause — gun control — he believes will forever define his career. The 43-year-old former congressman, who led a filibuster in June after the Orlando massacre, thinks the gun issue should now be a “litmus test” for being a Democrat.
“There wasn’t one issue that was driving me to get up every day and go to work. There is today,” Murphy admitted during an interview for POLITICO’s “Off Message” podcast, as the Democratic National Convention was wrapping up.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/how-newtown-gave-chris-murphy-a-mission-226777
“Murphy sent his family home, showed up at the firehouse near Sandy Hook Elementary”
Was he near the kid in the yellow sweatshirt who didn’t pay attention and had to be shown where to walk by the organizer or near Gene Rosen who was supposed to be a couple of hundred yards away at his house with his stuffed animals?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZRa5_DHgl4 - 310k -
NFL player Trent Richardson’s family blew $1.6 million of his money in less than a year:
“The 26-year-old Richardson grew up in Pensacola, Fla. His mom raised him and his siblings and didn’t have a lot of money. When he signed a four-year $20.5 million contract with the Cleveland Browns, he bought a six-bedroom house in Cleveland for $825,000 and rented his mom a house there, too. “I had a chance to make sure my mom never had to work again,” he said on E:60. He also bought his grandmother a house in Pensacola for $350,000.
After a successful rookie season, he was then on four teams in four years. And he is now out of the league.
In October 2015, he wasn’t on a team and had no income coming in and he reviewed his finances for the first time.
“I looked at my bank statement and thought, ‘where did this come from?’ they took advantage of me,” he said of his friends and family members.
They had paid for 11 Netflix accounts and eight Hulu accounts in his name. They also made many purchases on Amazon and charged him for bottle service at bars.
“I don’t get on the internet much — and I don’t drink,” he said, adding that he only spends about $300 every two weeks on himself.
Between January 2015 and October 2015, his family and friends had spent $1.6 million of his money.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-nfls-trent-richardson-had-to-dump-his-entourage-2016-08-05
You could give Trent Richardson another $20.5 million deal and he would never be able to collect a dime.
Just put in his contract that the money will be 4 yards away from the line of scrimmage.
Breaking news! Professional athlete is bad with money. Film at 11.
No corruption here: “Babulal Bera, the 83-year-old father of Democratic Rep. Ami Bera, recruited family, friends and acquaintances to donate to the committee, then reimbursed them with his money.”
sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article95394912.html
Sears on Saturday
No shoppers to be seen here
Dry cleaner effect
We went to the Sears in Escondido (North County Westfield) and it was so sad. Many of the lights were just turned off. Shelves looked bare in some places and not kept neat. Sad how their CEO turned Sears into what it is today.
‘‘That was from the (2015) peak. So, it’s down about 19 percent, and that’s where we are feeling the pain. And we are feeling it in these high-dollar jobs that we value very much. Right now were are feeling a very sharp pinch,’ Popp said. ‘It’s going to hurt and it is going to leave a mark. But it’s not the head blow that some people try to portray it as, like it is 1986 all over again.’
I’m willing to concede that anything could happen Bill. Maybe oil prices will soar in a short time and your $600,000 borrowers will be saved. But here’s another possibility; it could be worse than 1986. Prices are a lot higher. I’d bet down payments are a lot lower. You guys don’t have as much oil as you did then. And oil prices have fallen twice as fast as they did in the 80’s.
http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/36855-heres-why-seasonality-matters-in-the-housing-market
Fyi July is always slower than June
Kids in school effect
From the comments: So the idea is that we (agents and public) don’t understand seasonal fluctuations and cycles? Is that the latest approach by NAR to explain things? What, the standard “weather and storms” isn’t working?
To steal your line - “The concept of a lousy economy and lack of buyer confidence is not well understood or appreciated by NAR.” Constantly reworking the data to fit the desired result is nothing new from this administration or any associated real estate organization (NAR, NAHB, MBA) because the “recovery” has to be continually pushed.
There is no foundation to this “recovery”; no enthusiastic groundswell of confidence. There is an administration and associated real estate interests pushing to loosen credit, allow more marginal buyers in and increase the freebees all to shout “recovery!”
We’ll see what the story line is come this fall…
REPORT: 96% of Hillary’s charitable giving goes to Clinton Foundation
Clinton gives $1,042,000 in “charity,” but $1 million goes to her own foundation
The American Mirror - August 13, 2016
Hillary Clinton gave over a million dollars to charitable causes last year — and nearly 96% of it went to a non-profit with her name on the front door.
Clinton gave $1,042,000 in charitable contributions last year, and of that, $1 million went to the Clinton Family Foundation, CNBC reports.
The other $42,000 — or roughly 4% of the giving — went to Desert Classic Charities.
But even that group is connected with the Clinton Foundation.
How else is Chelsea going to get paid? You know, the daughter that can’t make herself care about money?
The bigger question is how 2 ex politicians can amass a quarter of a billion by just giving speeches. Trump’s tax records or lack thereof is a moot point.
That’s easy math. You take the quarter million The Goldman Sack™ paid you for your speech, donate that money to the Clinton Foundation, then invest that in cattle futures. Voila, a quarter of a billion dollars. So easy even Hey Zeus could do it.
Boston Metro Housing Prices Tank 12% YoY As Median Turns Negative Statewide
http://www.zillow.com/ma/home-values/
Boots say otherwise
Inventory tight in 22151
Hilary coming ,going to give Oxide a raise
Take it up with the data aggregators donks.
Sarasota-Northport, FL Metro Area Housing Demand Craters 16% YoY
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/Metro/Metro_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
HA can live in s Chighetto or most MLK avenues
Under $50 a sq ft
Instead he lives in your head round the clock…..
Ben,
Lived in Arizona’s Verde Valley for fourteen years. Lost a big chuck of money like so many others selling our homes 2-6 years after the height of the housing bust. I tried to ride it out myself, but when your neighborhood degenerates considerably due to foreclosures and merry-go-round of rentals, rising property crime, poor home occupier up-keep, etc. - couldn’t take it anymore. Today we have housing prices mostly back to pre-bubble days. Those who must rent are stuck in low inventory renters market with steep rent cost. I’ve looked around other areas of Arizona, and it’s much the same everywhere. Considering jobs, wages and local economies here in Arizona, wonder if this is all building to a tipping point? I’m often up to Flagstaff, out to Prescott/Prescott Valley and one common conversation thread is, “where are things headed with jobs/wages, home prices and rents?” Thinking maybe it’s time to start looking out-of-state and/or out of southwest for housing, however, maybe things are little better (or worse) elsewhere?
Where was this house in the Verde Valley?
Camp Verde. 2005 site built 1700 SF 3/2 $175000. Sold for 135000 in 2011. Homes around mine sold at similar losses and many foreclosures everywhere.
I did a lot of foreclosure work in Camp Verde. 175 isn’t that bad. Lots of people were stuck with 300 and up. Verde Santa Fe was a disaster.
“where are things headed with jobs/wages, home prices and rents?”
Home prices and wages have been disconnected for years.
Perfect storm for fixed income seniors, what with rental costs rising, low interest rate fixed income returns and rising health care costs. Health care providers are bailing Obamacare and remaining ones basically holding-on because they have experience with Medicaid and the low returns those members revenue stream provide. Considering reports on average US retirement savings, fewer jobs paying pensions and rising health care costs..does anyone not think we are headed for a train wreck? The only positive I see is inflation rate is mostly held in check. Maybe SSN will skip another COLA increase?
Never confuse price fixing and market rigging with inflation.
Not SSN. Meant SS (Social Security).
Social Security Disability is the new unemployment for the dull who are incapable of acquiring new skills.
Tax prick the bubble and presto - descending prices, aborted paper deals, failure to close deals, other deals not closing - specific performance !
Guess what else? Taxes on income not realized ! In Canada when you sign the offer and acceptance the property is actually the purchaser’s, even though the deal closes later. If you flipped the property’s paper your in trouble if it doesn’t close.
Also, that Vancouver tax of 15% - if you cheat there are fines of up to $200,000 and it can be audited for up to six years !
This is going to be a mess and all because governments were in the counterfeiting business.
Did you know that units sold are down year over year but prices are up by 20%? Lack of supply? Probably not enough building lots available as a result of government laziness.
Bingo