“A Lot Of Sellers Are Still Being Unrealistic” In California
The Union Tribune reports from California. “Most home sellers and real estate agents in the county would like to forget about 2006. The median home price had its first decline in 11 years. The volume of sales shriveled by 24 percent. Between July and September, foreclosures were three times as high as the summer of 2005.”
“But still the prices in many San Diego neighborhoods remain in the stratosphere.”
“In his office in the upscale Kensington neighborhood of San Diego, real estate agent Rex Downing is spending much of his time these days telling clients something they don’t want to hear: Don’t ask too much for your home.”
“‘A lot of sellers are still being unrealistic about what their property is worth,’ Downing said. ‘When I get sellers who take my advice, I can still sell a home by the optimal day. But not all clients will take my advice.’”
“In the past month, Downing sold two homes for sellers who took his advice. But he says that most hopeful sellers still come in with prices about 10 percent higher than the market will bear. ‘They’re either going to have to drop those prices or pull their home off the market,’ Downing said.”
The North County Times. “Carlsbad financial planner Judy Stewart said she advises clients not to buy a home that costs more than three or four times their household income. ‘I don’t let clients reach for real estate,’ said Stewart. ‘If they can’t afford it, they can’t afford it.’”
“Unfortunately, many homeowners now believe that they stretched too far during the real estate boom of the last six years. As prices rose dramatically in that period, many borrowers chose risky loans to buy homes that they couldn’t afford with conventional loans.”
“A growing number of borrowers want to replace those loans, according to experts. However, because home prices have stabilized, or even fallen, some homeowners now owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.”
“Two of the most dangerous loans have become popular. The California Association of Realtors said earlier this month that 43 percent of home buyers statewide chose to take second mortgages, typically 20 percent of the purchase price, in addition to a first mortgage covering 80 percent.”
“The percentage of homeowners carrying a first and second mortgage is the highest since 1982 and the second highest in the last 30 years, the association said. Also, First American Real Estate Solutions said 60 percent of all loans taken out for home purchases statewide in 2005 were adjustable-rate mortgages.”
“Victoria Johnson, president of the San Diego chapter of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers, said that she has been flooded with people trying to understand their adjustable-rate mortgages.”
“‘There aren’t bad loans,’ she said. ‘The problem is how they are being used.’”
“Then there is the negative-option, adjustable-rate mortgage, sometimes referred to as an ‘option ARM.’ ‘I think the people who got into option ARMs a few years ago are in a world of hurt,’ said Stewart, the Carlsbad financial planner.”
The LA Daily News. “This year should be a good one for Ventura County’s economy, with rising employment and incomes, but there are several potential problem areas, according to economists who presented their economic forecast for the areak.”
“‘We are seeing very low population growth and very strong economic growth in Ventura County,’ said Bill Watkins, executive director of the UCSB Economic Forecast Project and a former research economist at the Federal Reserve.”
“The high cost of local housing will continue to drive away high-paying jobs, he said. As an example, his report pointed to Technicolor’s recent announcement the company is moving hundreds of manufacturing jobs out of the county.”
“The report also noted that Countrywide Financial’s growth over the past real estate boom has greatly contributed to economic growth, so any decision it might make to relocate jobs or merge with another company could have serious economic consequences locally.”
“‘So far at least, the county is pulling off the economic hat trick of strong economic growth in the presence of weak population growth,’ he said. As for housing, ‘Realtors are having a terrible year,’ he said.”
The Whittier Daily News. “California experienced a large spike in foreclosures, with 6,080 in the final quarter of 2006 compared to 875 in the same period in 2005, according to DataQuick.”
“Some home buyers have gotten into loans they just can’t afford, said Alex Del Haro, president of the San Gabriel Valley chapter of California Association of Mortgage Brokers. Some loans include prepayment penalties the borrower is not aware of, he said.”
“Interest-only loans or adjustable-rate loans affect many first-time buyers at the 15-month mark, said Chris Vigil, Realtor/appraiser in Whittier.”
“‘We’re seeing a lot of short sales in my office,’ he said. ‘Two or three years ago, we never saw those.’”
The Press Democrat. “Across the United States, more Americans are banking on rising home values instead of the stock market and savings to pay for their retirement.”
“‘They think of their houses as a savings account more so than a generation before,’ said Bruce Dzieza, a Sebastopol financial planner. ‘It’s become more of a commodity, and people have the attitude that real estate will never go down.’”
“The recent housing downturn and declining property values doesn’t appear to have lowered Sonoma County residents’ expectations that homes are the key to financial stability in retirement.”
“‘The majority of clients we get, that’s their biggest asset. And they don’t have a lot for retirement,’ said Dale DeGennaro, president of the North Bay Chapter of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers.”
“A couple sold their Sonoma County home more than a year ago and became renters while continuing to work. ‘They fell in love with renting. They liked the cash flow from their portfolio,’ Dzieza said.”
“Dzieza put together a retirement plan for another couple keyed to the sale of their Sonoma County home. But the couple purchased a ranch in Oregon a year ago before selling here. Now, they have about $400,000 less to work with because their Sonoma County home sold for less than they expected.”
“‘It won’t ruin their retirement, but it will have a dramatic effect,’ Dzieza said.”
The Record.net. “The coming layoffs of about 100 Stockton-based workers at Washington Mutual should surprise nobody. A good number of those people work in WaMu’s sub-prime lending arm, Long Beach Mortgage, one of the nation’s biggest sub-prime mortgage lenders.”
“Sub-prime loans are aimed at higher risk borrowers, people with little to put down, and people who, to be honest, might be buying more home than they can afford.”
“People who in a normal real estate market, couldn’t get into a home, or at least couldn’t buy too much house for their income, squeeze into the market. But what if you hit a financial speed bump? Or, what if the market takes a jarring dip? The pool of buyers dries up? Interest rates climb? The inventory of homes for sale balloons? Prices slip? And that’s where we find ourselves today.”
“It probably will be a while before we see what we saw at the height of the boom. In the first quarter of 2005, 42 percent of all mortgages in San Joaquin County were interest-only loans. The heady times started heading south by the end of that year.”
“Foreclosures are climbing. In the fourth quarter of 2006, foreclosure notices in San Joaquin County reached their highest level in at least 10 years.”
“So what’s an aggressive outfit like WaMu to do? Pull back. And that’s just the signal the bank sent last week.”