Victims Of The Greater Fool Theory In An Illiquid Market
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Last week, Lynn Courtney’s struggle to find a new place to call home finally came to an end when she bought a 1,300-square-foot home near Arlington High School. But she only got to call it hers after agreeing to pay $141,000 — $11,000 more than the asking price. According to the most recent appraisal, the market value of the home is $117,108. Two years ago, its market value was only $58,800, making that a 100 percent increase, according to Tarrant Appraisal District records. ‘I found that you couldn’t hesitate. If you found a house that was close to what you wanted, you had jump on it or it would be gone. … And I think most of it was overpriced,’ Courtney said.”
“In 2011, roughly 74 percent of the sales in Fort Worth were for homes valued under $200,000. But five years later, about 52 percent were under that amount and the number of sales in that category were declining, said Jim Gaines, chief economist at the Texas A&M Real Estate Center. ‘I don’t think it’s a bubble unless the whole economy collapses for some unknown reason,’ Gaines said. ‘The housing market is reacting as it should. There is high demand and low supply. It is not reactive, excessive exuberance.’”
“Reports of a slowdown in the San Francisco housing market are greatly exaggerated, at least according to a new report from Paragon Real Estate. Paragon found that listings for ‘luxury’ homes—those priced over $3 million for single-families and over $1.85-million for condos—throughout the city were expiring and being removed from market without a sale at higher and higher rates. The figures were particularly striking for luxury condos, where 176 were removed from market without a sale in 2016, versus a low of 80 in 2012.”
“‘Generally speaking, the luxury market has cooled more than the more affordable segments, and the luxury condo market has cooled more than the luxury house market,’ summed up the report. ‘This is mostly due to the recent surge of new-construction luxury condos onto the market in the city.’”
“Ahwatukee may be on the verge of a 21st century kind of gold rush. Suddenly, high-end luxury homes – at least a half dozen with multimillion-dollar price tags – are hitting the market as the spring buying season peaks. Since 2000, only 17 homes in Ahwatukee have sold for more than $2 million – and most of those sales were before 2010. Only three deals worth more than $2 million have closed since 2011, according to Mike Orr, a former Arizona State University housing market analyst.”
“‘I would say that pricing for the luxury market is not very strong and has gone slightly backwards since summer of 2015. I am not convinced there is anything unusual going on in the Ahwatukee high-end market, when you look at closed sales, rather than owner aspirations,’ he added.”
“It looks like Larry Gagosian’s Faena House penthouse didn’t hold its value. The art dealer flipped the Miami Beach penthouse for $12 million, a loss of nearly $1 million since he closed on the unit about a year ago, property records show. Gagosian isn’t the first Faena House owner to flip his unit at a loss during the market slowdown. Earlier this year, New York real estate developer Joseph Moinian and his wife Nazee bought billionaire Leon Black’s condo at Faena House for $12.5 million, a 24 percent discount from Black’s purchase price of $16.5 million.”
“Abu Dhabi’s property market is starting to see sell-offs … and it’s not just by the developers alone. Investors who bought from off-plan launches in the last two years are putting these up for sale in greater numbers. Property owners are being forced to take drastic actions where they cannot make an exit at a decent price. ‘In some instances, such as those who purchased property on Reem Island, the inability to achieve desired sale prices is prompting vendors to enter the rental market to generate cash flows,’ the Cluttons report adds. ‘These ‘accidental’ landlords are competing for a limited pool of tenants and this is hampering the rental market’s ability to register any meaningful growth.’”
“I find it laughable when investment bankers come to my office and try to assure me that warehouse and logistics space in Dubai is a ‘defensive’ investment. Mathematical reality does not support this argument. Warehouses, like luxury homes, are a kiss of death when demand slumps as their market is so illiquid. As J.P. Morgan rightly observed ‘Liquidity is like a cab on a rainy night. It disappears when you need it the most.’ I was shocked to read that the prices of Burj Khalifa apartments had fallen by 25 per cent in the past year. Prices for Palm Jumeirah apartments, Emirates Hills and Hattan on the Lakes villas have all fallen by 20-25 per cent in the past two years.”
“As listed REIT’s on Nasdaq Dubai demonstrate, secondary market liquidity is simply impossible to attract when a leveraged distribution yield is below 5 per cent or less than the cash yield on a studio in International City! My call? Caveat emptor! Buyer beware as it is no fun to be a victim of the greater fool theory in an illiquid market.”
“While the total number of houses surpasses the number of Iranian households, millions of dollars are trapped in the form of empty residential units, the minister of roads and urban development said. ‘There are a total of 25.4 million houses and 21.5 million households in Iran, which shows that for the first time, the number of houses is more than the number of households,’ Abbas Akhoundi was also quoted as saying by ILNA. The country has some 2.58 million empty homes, 490,000 of which are in the capital Tehran.”
“‘These empty homes are worth $250 billion while all the companies currently listed on the stock market are worth $110 billion, meaning that we have twice the total worth of our equity market locked in empty homes,’ he added.”
“Terrence Boswell Inniss, President of the Trinidad Building and Loan Association says that people who invested in high end property to rent to expatriate workers are hurting. He said there was a time when property values were going ‘through the roof’ and people were renting houses for US$10,000 a month and they were getting those rates. ‘That market has practically dried up, as a result of which a lot of people have been left holding the bag,’ he said.”
“The under-par auction price of a foreclosed apartment at The Palace in Taipei, once the most expensive residential complex in Taiwan, was an isolated incident, not a sign of a crash in the nation’s luxury housing market, analysts said. The price translates to NT$1.88 million per ping, a 37 percent drop from the NT$2.98 million per ping recorded in July 2013. ‘The foreclosed price is not available on the regular market and therefore will not become a benchmark,’ Taiwan Realty vice chairman Jack Chou said, adding that it is not fair to compare good assets with bad ones that usually entail higher risk.”
“In the current property market across Australia’s mining towns it is difficult to comprehend a recent past where one had to buy a house because there were no rentals available. Emma Offler moved to Roxby Downs to be with her partner in 2010. They spent more than $500,000 on a house, and poured another $10,000 and a lot of effort in to renovations. A few years later, Ms Offler made the decision to move back to Adelaide to pursue a career, leaving their expensive home empty a lot of the time. She said her shift-worker partner lives in the house for the weeks he is working, but with so many houses vacant it is not worth renting out.”
“Ms Offler said their situation is not unique. ‘There are definitely plenty of people out there who are making huge losses on their properties in Roxby at the moment,’ she said. Ms Offler said the feeling of wanting to leave the town, but being tied down by owning a property, was a scary situation to be in. ‘I did feel quite trapped. I thought there’s no way we’re going to be able to afford to move from Roxby and I’m going to be stuck in a job I’m unhappy in. But I guess we made it happen because we had to.’”
‘There are definitely plenty of people out there who are making huge losses on their properties in Roxby at the moment,’ she said. Ms Offler said the feeling of wanting to leave the town, but being tied down by owning a property, was a scary situation to be in. ‘I did feel quite trapped. I thought there’s no way we’re going to be able to afford to move from Roxby and I’m going to be stuck in a job I’m unhappy in. But I guess we made it happen because we had to.’
Roll with it Emma.
Had to do it…
Suzanne and the bank said it was the right thing to do.
“the feeling of wanting to leave the town, but being tied down by owning a property, was a scary situation to be in.”
Exhibit A in the case for freedom.
Really gives a new definition to FB….
—
Decorated Navy SEAL moonlighting as a porn star
Paying the bills
Schmidt’s unlikely entry into the skin trade turns on a very different kind of moonlighting gig he took while serving as a SEAL in Virginia.
He and his wife founded the Norfolk-based real estate company Schmidt and Wolf Associates in 2005, according to Virginia state documents. Within two years, losses at multiple rental properties created nearly $1.8 million in personal debt, according to the couple’s Chapter 7 bankruptcy filing.
Three properties had both first and second mortgages, and bankruptcy records show the pair had resorted to using credit cards to finance loan repayments. Schmidt’s Navy pay was less than $60,000 per year at the time, according to the federal filing.
Jade appeared in dozens of porn films after her 2001 debut in “Escape to Sex Island,” but she had left the industry by 2003 to become a wife and mother, attend school for her nursing degree and run the real estate firm.
As business losses deepened, she became a stripper to make ends meet, logging long weeks in Las Vegas and sending money home. Then she reluctantly returned to making sex films for the cash, she said.
“It’s helped our family. It got us out of a lot of financial issues we were going through,” Jade said. “I could take care of the child. I could try to get us out of financial debt.”
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/military/sd-me-seal-porn-20170414-story.html
Haha… where’s this guy’s security clearance? Fugg’n incredible!
If I read this right, it’s not the Navy SEAL doing the movies, it’s his wife. Gotta wonder about that relationship…
First I heard of a housing bubble in Iran…
Cheap and easy money has caused the entire world to go mad…
April 21, 2015
“Due to a growing demand and a tendency to prefer investments in tangible assets, property prices offered a guaranteed profit in Iran until 2012 with very few exceptions of short-term stagnation. Nonetheless, since the summer of 2013, an unprecedented real decline in housing prices has been experienced. According to the Statistical Center of Iran, housing prices have dropped by 14.3% in the 12 months prior to March 20. While the younger generation of Iran’s urban population is looking for smaller housing units, institutional investors have been producing larger apartments that only attract a limited number of customers. In fact, there are 1.6 million empty housing units in Tehran waiting to be sold or rented.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=8972
August 10, 2014
“Housing prices in Tehran soared beginning in 2012. According to political analyst, Mohammad Ali Shabani, ‘real estate became the best way to protect your money.’ In one of the most exclusive neighborhoods in northern Tehran, this swanky home has sat empty without a buyer — half the other units in the six-floor block are empty, too. So are tens of thousands of other apartments throughout Tehran, all for sale but sitting vacant without buyers. ‘Right now we have a lot of apartments that are not sold and sitting empty because of high prices,’ says real estate agent Bahar Khalili.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=8539
May 10, 2013
“The Iranian property developer looked down at photographs of a Tehran apartment block on his tablet computer. The pictures showed the lavish interiors of apartments and penthouse suites in a 20-floor development his company recently completed in Niavaran, one of the Iranian capital’s wealthiest areas. One of many towers to have sprung up on the Tehran skyline in recent years. The cost of apartments in his developments - among the most sought after in Tehran - have almost tripled in two years, he said. They now sell for about 200 million rials ($5,500) a square meter, and even his medium-sized apartments cost the local currency equivalent of $1 million.”
“The developer said he had halted projects in Iran and was proceeding with caution. ‘Until around two years ago, the market rose steadily. Then it started going crazy,’ the he said on a visit to Dubai. ‘You can’t believe how quickly everything’s gone up. It’s a bubble and I don’t know what will happen.’”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=7721
Oh come on, everybody wants to live in Afghanistan and Tehran according to realtors.
I seem to remember at least one post from Ben about the high price of real estate in Baghdad of all places. Even more ridiculous than a bubble in Iran.
October 5, 2012
“A few years after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003, the pillars of Kurdistan’s real estate market started to rise unexpectedly. Real estate agents say that less than a decade ago, a plot of land in Erbil’s Bakhtiyari neighborhood cost only around $3,000. Now, that same lot is worth around $230,000, illustrating an increase of almost 75 times. Anwar Anaid, a professor of political economy at the University of Kurdistan, attributes the rise in real estate prices in Kurdistan to a ‘herd mentality.’”
“‘As soon as there is rise in prices, large numbers of people enter the market. As soon as there is rise in prices, large numbers of people enter the market. And normally the cultural tendency is that people think the price increase will go on forever,’ said Anaid.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=7393
‘This is mostly due to the recent surge of new-construction luxury condos onto the market in the city.’
But the shack hustlers insist they aren’t building enough out there.
I could not reconcile the opening line “Reports of a slowdown in the San Francisco housing market are greatly exaggerated”, with the rest of the post. So I went to the linked article and this was the missing part:
“While the real-estate group admits that there has been a lull at the highest end of the market, neighborhoods with more affordable housing (especially those priced around $1 million and under) continue to see multiple offers and overbids.”
This is what we are seeing in many parts of California. The upper end is stalling while product in the middle and lower markets is getting multiple offers and quick sales. I wonder why? Oh, yes I recall now: None of the home builders are creating any new middle and lower end product for sale. Thus, the call for more middle and lower end product seems to be right on target. Eat your own crow this time.
Nobody’s building higher pricing houses in a significant way. They are just charging it more, and fools are getting suckered.
“Thus, the call for more middle and lower end product seems to be right on target.”
Maybe. Another option is that prices of high end product decline enough to encroach on middle end product which in turn encroaches on low end product. I think historically that’s the path the roller coaster takes, with the high end seated at the front.
That is true when the market melts down enough, which it did after the bubble collapsed in 2007. In 2010, I bought my exiting house for 52% of what it sold for in 2006 (and that does not count the $150,000 the foreclosed owner invested after his purchase). I never would have been able to afford this house otherwise.
It took 4 years to find the deal. It is good to be patient.
I’ll second what butters said. The builders aren’t constructing “high quality” homes that justify the higher price tag; they’re building the same crapshack and raising the price because FBs are falling for it. If they can get that number, why price for the low/mid end? If more fools justify paying mid/high end prices for low end shit, I won’t cry when the market crashes.
Example:
National builder constructing homes in different communities within 10 mile radius of each other. Range for the exact same floor plan: $545k to $745k. Exact same finishes. Exact same 2×4 framing, subfloor, craptastic engineered flooring, etc. $200k difference, with higher-priced houses on 0.4acre lot vs 1 acre lot for cheapest (land price difference doesn’t justify sales price differences). Sales are slow for the $545k houses; can’t build fast enough for the $745k houses. And the FBs can’t wait to get $150k in upgrades for that $745k house. When I questioned the agent re: justification for price difference on same home she looked at me like I was speaking espanol, then started talking about a “vintage crown molding package” that uses 7 1/4″ cove, hardly a vintage crown.
Where is this market you write about?
It occurs everywhere a publicly traded developer operates. They massage prices based on lending ceilings. Same drawings and specs, same floorplans, same materials, same labor but a different price.
HA > Race > somedewd ?
Where is this market you write about?
It occurs everywhere a publicly traded developer operates.
$1M is “affordable housing” now?
In SF it is. When you make $400,000 a year, it is only 2.5 times your income……until your income goes to zero!
SF median income is what? 80K?
Yes, about $84,000 in 2016. It is $115,000 in the Mission Bay district (techies). Clearly, household earning the median cannot afford something in the city.
However, a husband and wife each earning $200,000/year are able to buy a condo, but it is not easy. 50% taxes (state and fed) take a big slice of the pie!
“Record High Multi-Family Construction Set To Wreak Havoc On Apartment Rents”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-14/record-high-multi-family-construction-set-wreak-havoc-apartment-rents
skyrocketing.housing.inventory.
So it’s good news all around.
’she only got to call it hers after agreeing to pay $141,000 — $11,000 more than the asking price. According to the most recent appraisal, the market value of the home is $117,108. Two years ago, its market value was only $58,800, making that a 100 percent increase, according to Tarrant Appraisal District records. ‘I found that you couldn’t hesitate. If you found a house that was close to what you wanted, you had jump on it or it would be gone. … And I think most of it was overpriced,’ Courtney said.’
‘I don’t think it’s a bubble unless the whole economy collapses for some unknown reason,’ Gaines said. ‘The housing market is reacting as it should. There is high demand and low supply. It is not reactive, excessive exuberance.’
Click!
I don’t know how accurate appraisal district appraisals are. In some areas they are more aggressive than others.
A better measure of this house’s appreciation would be comps in the area from 2 years ago. From the pics it doesn’t look like a bad little house.
Establishing a price founded on known inaccurate and likely questionable valuations is no way to do business.
A bona fide appraisal based on actual input cost less depreciation is the only ethical method of establishing a price.
A better measure of this house’s appreciation would be comps in the area from 2 years ago. From the pics it doesn’t look like a bad little house.
It looks like a crappy old house someone put aluminum siding on to try to make it look better. In the 3rd pic you can see a giant crack in the foundation. More like a hole than a crack, really.
And this is NOT a good neighborhood. Arlington in general is pretty sketchy. It’s crime index is 11, meaning it is safer than 11% of US cities https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/tx/arlington/crime And the area around Arlington High School/UT Arlington, is not great at all.
The only reason people are buying in areas like this is they think it’s a bargain compared to Plano, Frisco, etc.
For fun I searched the Arlington PD website for crimes at Arlington high school over the last year, and it gave me 89 records. Note this was not even the neighborhood around the school — this was at the school itself!
https://arlingtonpd.org/CrimeStats/CrimeSearchDate.asp?SearchType=School&School=ARLINGTON+HIGH+SCHOOL&SUBMIT=Search
Not sure if this link will bring up the results or if you have to redo the search yourself.
It’s all theft, vehicle burglary, threat/harassment, assault, drug possession, fights, criminal trespass, assaults on police officers, etc.
I think I’m going to go out an offer thousands over asking for a crapshack in this neighborhood right now!
A fool and her money were thusly parted.
I am shocked that people were not selling their stocks more, ahead of WW3- 3 day weekend.
I work with a lot of South American co’s and they think WW3 has already started.
http://www.northshorecare.com/adult-diapers.html
There’s 11 to chose from.
LOL
‘North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has taken a break from his war of words with the US to open a luxury set of apartments — with no hot water. The apartments in Ryomyong Street, Pyongyang, offer impressive views, ice green wallpaper and purple sofas. Ryomyong Street is the third prestige project in as many years in the North Korean capital, and by far the largest. It’s said to have nearly 5000 apartments, which according to authorities will be distributed free to deserving citizens.’
‘Its name translates as “illumination” and the official KCNA news agency described it as “an icon of modern street architecture and a fairyland representing the era of the Workers’ Party”.
‘It was built quickly, in around a year, to ensure completion in time for Saturday’s 105th anniversary of the birth of Kim’s grandfather, the North’s founder Kim Il-sung — who lies in state nearby.’
‘Culture ministry official Kim Ok-Hwa was assigned to the construction project’s technical department, and said site personnel toiled for 18 hours a day, seven days a week, for a year, to finish it on schedule. But she played down their role. “The Supreme Leader devoted his very best efforts so our effort is very small compared to his effort,” she told AFP.’
‘Staff say its hot water system is geothermal, and was not switched on for the opening ceremony. But O’Carroll described the build quality on similar projects as “not so good”.
‘One of the apartment complexes erected to mark Kim Il-sung’s 100th birth anniversary collapsed in 2014, he said, with the North admitting there had been casualties. “It went up in less than a year, I believe, and it came down two years later,” he told AFP. “When you’re rushing to complete things mistakes will be made. It is a risk.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/cringe/comments/264hbs/north_korea_pretends_to_have_access_to_internet/
Wonder if the same kind of engineering went into their nukes…
I think they hired the Chinese for the tough stuff. $$$$$
At 6:12, the original Chinese ghost city.
6 Secret Cities That Prove We Don’t Know What’s Really Going On
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYyBcOLq8bs
While we might find this bizarre, given what we’re told about the country, parts of this are lovely and very well done.
KCTV - Korean Central Television - North Korean TV - Live stream
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pYnGUfIamo
OTOH, I have also seen the undercover documentary of abandoned children trying to survive in the slums of Pyongyang. That was truly grim. Children under 10 years of age, some with missing limbs, helping each other to eat and live to see another day.
“I think they hired the Chinese for the tough stuff. $$$$$”
Pakistani scientist Abul Kahn sold-out to the highest bidders.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdul_Qadeer_Khan
Heard a commentator on the radio note that if you watched march madness just about every third player had a kim jong un - style haircut. Spot on, and illustrates how influential the fat man child is!
Oh, dear, I just posted that live stream from North Korean state TV and it’s a test pattern now.
Uh-oh? Or just normal screw-up?
Woodland, WA Housing Prices Crater 11% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/woodland-wa/home-values/
Friday afternoon, sipping on some Maker’s Mark, feeling the effects of that Sweet Grass brand 10mg peanut butter cookie edible kick in, and listening to this.
A Tribe Called Quest — The Low End Theory (1991):
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=L1Zqol7ARCk
Only renters get to live like this. Everyone else in Denver who has a mortgage is either stuck in traffic or still at work
And when you’re done listening to that, listen to this.
Nas — Illmatic (1994):
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-aB6bfucM04
“sipping on some Maker’s Mark”
Good idea. I’ve got some myself.
I bet people with mortgages also have bad livers because, if they can afford the stuff, they’re so stressed they’d need to drink 4x the amount to achieve the same level of relaxation.
Palo Alto, CA Rental Rates Crater 8% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/palo-alto-ca/home-values/
To Comment by Senior Housing Analyst…
I’m not sure if your posts are humor. Much as I enjoy seeing them and I’d like them to be true, the zillow median rental price yoy for palo alto is only down $25 per month - on a $6,200 per month price tag. A crater is no where in sight for PA, as they call it. I have noticed a couple blocks away in mountain view, new luxury apartments are starting to offer months of free rent on new leases. That is something unthinkable a year ago especially because they are truly some of the only nice apartments in the area that has mostly older units. And more complexes have completed and are in the build stage not far away. I definitely think rents will come down but a lot of it is jobs based demand.
it makes him feel better after missing out on all the free equity over the past 8 years.
May 18, 2016
“A custom-built home in the heart of California’s Silicon Valley had its price cut by $500,000 last week after sitting on the market since the end of March — a move that would’ve been almost unfathomable a year ago and a signal that frenzied demand has peaked. The six-bedroom, five-bath house in Palo Alto is now listed for $7.5 million. It joins a growing inventory of high-end homes in the area that are taking longer to sell.”
“It’s a departure from recent years, when newly minted millionaires from tech initial public offerings raced against buyers from China to scoop up anemic inventory. ‘The seemingly inexhaustible well of very high-end buyers has proven exhaustible after all,’ said Dean Wehrli, a senior vice president at John Burns. ‘The peak is behind us, and that’s becoming clearer and clearer to builders and buyers.’”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9638
From the same post:
“The Chinese investors buying up swaths of U.S. real estate may not always know what they’re doing, according to some real estate experts. ‘I’ve been surprised by the lack of sophistication of some Chinese institutional investors,’ John Liang, Xinyuan Real Estate’s managing director of U.S. operations, said during a panel on Chinese real estate investment at the Asia Society. Some are even missing the ‘basic finance 101 concept of risk and reward,’ he said.”
“The reason? Real estate in China is basically ‘a manufacturing business,’ he said — one builds, sells, and makes a profit. ‘The U.S. is way past that,’ he said, referring to the complexity of the trade here, with its myriad of regulations and financial gymnastics. ‘It’s a little ahead of what the Chinese are used to.’”
“Liang’s statements come amid complaints by some local players that demand from Chinese investors have pushed New York prices to unrealistic levels. Some of Liang’s fellow panelists, who included Wendy Cai-Lee of East West Bank, Beth Fisher of Corcoran Sunshine, Kai-yan Lee of Vanke USA Holdings and Arthur Margon of Rosen Consulting Group, agreed with his assessment that there remains a lack of knowledge among even the most active Chinese investors.”
“‘You do wonder what the underwriting criteria is with some of these purchases,’ Fisher said. ‘As a broker, you assume that they see into the future in ways that we sometimes don’t see, but it is a tad concerning on the supply side.’”
Chinese infestors buying in US?
I thought they bought cuz they wanted to live here. No?
Palo Alto, CA Price Reduced Homes for Sale
12 Homes
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Palo-Alto_CA/shw-pr/show-price-reduced
Chosen at random:
1492 Webster St, Palo Alto, CA 94301
For Sale
$8,900,000
Price cut: -$990,000 (3/27)
Zestimate®: $7,204,800
03/27/17 Price change $8,900,000-10.0%
02/23/17 Listed for sale $9,890,000
11/19/16 Listing removed $9,890,000
09/22/16 Listed for sale $9,890,000
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1492-Webster-St-Palo-Alto-CA-94301/19494950_zpid/
I was poking around:
3239 Maddux Dr, Palo Alto, CA 94303
4 beds 3 baths 2,909 sqft
For Sale
$2,998,000
Price cut: -$200,000 (4/14)
Zestimate®: $3,309,457
‘Gorgeous newly built craftsman…’
4/14/17 Price change $2,998,000-6.3%
03/10/17 Price change $3,198,000-8.6%
10/27/16 Price change $3,498,000-4.9%
09/22/16 Listed for sale $3,680,000+75.2%
08/13/15 Listing removed $2,100,000
06/25/15 Price change $2,100,000-6.7%
04/22/15 Listed for sale $2,250,000+150%
06/01/13 Listing removed $899,000
05/30/13 Listed for sale $899,000+3.3%
10/16/12 Sold $870,000-3.2%
07/19/12 Listed for sale $899,000
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3239-Maddux-Dr-Palo-Alto-CA-94303/19498487_zpid/
147 Stockbridge Ave, Atherton, CA 94027
6 beds 8 baths 11,706 sqft
For Sale
$18,950,000
Zestimate®: $19,549,074
10/03/16 Price change $18,950,000-13.7%
05/02/16 Listed for sale $21,950,000+399%
05/02/14 Sold $4,400,000
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/147-Stockbridge-Ave-Atherton-CA-94027/15577951_zpid/
3239 Maddux Dr,
Palo Alto, CA 94303
4 beds 3 baths 2,909 sqft
Home price
$2,998,000
Down payment
$599,600
Your payment $11,511
The question is…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TuPQvzO5Js
A better version:
The Who - Who Are You?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdLIerfXuZ4
“A better version:”
You’re right.
Hao Liu and Mei Liang, husband and wife bought the property in 2012 for $870,000. They have been trying to sell it since listing it in 2015 for $2,250,000 (dropping to $2,100,000 3 months later).
They put it back on the market in 2016 for $3,680,000 and are now less than $3,000,000.
When they get below $2,000,000, maybe they will get some interest……..
Jesus greedy *ucks!
Did the house start laying golden eggs? Did they discover oil in the basement?
Dutch auctions are back in vogue!
is it time for yellen and co. to kick the shorts in the nards next week?
My rental’s estimate on Zillow went from $292,331 on April 10 to $361,600 on April 13. Rent estimates are about the same. I’m not even going to bother checking it anymore.
Southlake, TX Housing Prices Crater 7% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/southlake-tx/home-values/
Well we barely made the airport for the last plane out
As we taxied down the runway I could hear the people shout
They said “Don’t come back here Yankee”
But if I ever do-
I’ll bring more money
‘Cause all she wants to do is dance
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBMLXu4An90
I was wondering about Leadville, CO today. How is the real estate scene doing there?
For whatever reason Leadville has stuck in my mind after all these years after reading about it around 1996-ish in a magazine of “best places to live for the outdoors” or some such. And now that I think about it, that was probably my first exposure to “buy now before everybody else does and you’re priced out” style marketing.
will the PPT wheel out a banker next week ?
“….Gagosian’s Faena House penthouse didn’t hold its value…”
I had dinner across the street from these condos a month ago. Mr. Faena is a billionaire from Argentina who bought up four square blocks in Miami Beach and is doing development there. He was going to rehab the building next door to the condos for more condos, but could not get the pre-sales he needed. If Ben still allowed photos, I would post one of the gutted building strucuture just sitting there. The Miami condo mess is a big one and it will be interesting to watch it play out over the next 5 years.
Faena will propbably be O.K., since the Argentine Peso (ARS) was 5 to 1 (USD) when he bought the real estate. Now it is 15 to 1, so if he stays in Argentina, his U$ assets go up 3 fold on a relative basis.
The Faena House Condominiums are a mess. 20% are for sale, which is 5 year supply at the current sales rate (which is falling). Listed prices are now dropping below the prior sale price. Imagine you are the person who purchased the 8,000 SF penthouse for $55,000,000! It has now been for sale at the same price for over a year.
Someone Got Stucco…….
One of the interesting things I am noticing on this trip around the market is how matter-of-fact everyone is about the declining prices.
If you click around this web site, it is pretty clear the Faena House condos are declining in value and have been for some time (18 months?)
http://www.miamicondoinvestments.com/faena-house-miami-beach-condos
The real question is “How low will they go?”
‘I don’t think it’s a bubble unless…’
Bubble denial among MSM-favored experts is a primary indicator of a rapidly inflating bubble underway.
It’s not heart disease, unless you have a massive heart attack.
“Bubble denial among MSM-favored experts is a primary indicator of a rapidly inflating bubble underway.”
It’s not a bubble unless Christopher Thornberg declares it.
Thornberg has been right on target over the years. He is the best of the economists.
“Housing bubble talk is tiresome”.
“There are three things certain in life; death, taxes and predictions of an Australian property crash.”
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/rita-panahi/housing-bubble-talk-is-tiresome/news-story/ba9ff6f0b435fbfea31010df13256cf7
(Oh, and all you naysayers — you’re just trying to capitalize off the misfortune of others.)
After skimming the sports section I am really happy to see they got this situation straightened out.
WESTERN Bulldogs star Marcus Bontempelli admits his side received “a gift” from the umpires via a controversial third-man up free kick during the Good Friday thriller against North Melbourne.
“I was a bit confused to be honest,” he said on Fox Footy. “I actually thought I’d nominated for the ruck because I couldn’t actually see Josh next to me.
I think the three certain things in life are death, taxes, and crow. All the crow people eat when prices go up, and all the crow they eat when prices go down. They should do crow futures on the comex.
the bear trap has been set. BTFD!